Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4192 This POLL Is INSANE!!!

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Ep. 4192 This POLL Is INSANE!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's happening in the midst of the bombardment of all these ridiculously fake polls.
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: The single-most accurate polling outlet just dropped a bomb show, and it has the Democrats in an absolute panic, and it's not just the stunning poll.
• 0:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: We've got early vote data, piling up in a key bell weather state that's turning into a literal Democrat.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: Nightmare stick me the very end of this video because when you put these numbers next to what just happened in the last two elections, we're going to see how the midterm picture is looking increasingly bleak for the Democrats.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, your patron professor here to help you make sense of the madness.
• 1:03
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• 1:18
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• 1:24
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• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_03]: and join Patriots who are thinking, asking questions, and moving forward together.
• 1:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: Alright, let's dive right in here, gang.
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: Harvard Harris just dropped their latest generic ballot poll, and it is an absolute shocker in a midterm season where the Democrats should be ahead by at least seven or eight or nine points.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: According to Harvard Harris, it's a 50-50 tie.
• 1:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is the 20-26 generic congressional ballot among registered voters.
• 1:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: When likely voters were asked, which party they would support at the election where held today, 51% chose a Democrat, 49% chose a Republican, a two-point Democrat, Lee, that is shuckingly bad.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: for the Democrats.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's not a normal looking midterm advantage for an opposition party.
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: Remember since 1932.
• 2:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: The party out of power, the party that lost the White House in the last election, gains an average of 20 to 30 seats in the midterms.
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's called a pendulum swing, it's basically a law of politics.
• 2:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: The party in power always sees a significant loss of seats in the midterms.
• 2:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: This poll is not suggesting anything even remotely like that.
• 2:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, of course,
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: It certainly does not mean Republicans are guaranteed to hold the house, but it does mean that at least in this survey, Democrats do not have the kind of broad national cushion they would ordinarily have heading into the midterms.
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, the give you a sense of where the Democrats ought to be right now as well as to show you how accurate Harvard Harris is.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: Here's Harvard Harris' numbers going into the 2018 midterms.
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is when the Democrats won 40 seats and one back control in the house.
• 3:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now again, just to be clear, that's not Kamala Harris, as you see on the left.
• 3:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's Harvard Harris, okay?
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: These are the last set of polls going into those 2018 midterms, the last time, Democrats won 40 seats.
• 3:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, note from late August going all the way into November,
• 3:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: Harvard Harris pulled the generic ballot at Democrats plus eight or nine.
• 3:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: And their final poll was Democrats plus eight, and as it turns out, the Democrats won the midterms by a margin of, well, what do you know, plus eight Democrats had an 8% turnout advantage over Republicans in 2018, so not only was Harvard Harris dead on and consistently so beginning around this time of year, but the Democrats were far more ahead on the generic ballot than they are right now.
• 4:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: And it gets even worse for the Democrats.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: Take a look at this.
• 4:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: Republicans are every bit is motivated to vote as Democrats.
• 4:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: Harvard Harris found that 81% of Republicans were motivated to vote a kind of 81% of Democrats.
• 4:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: There is no voter enthusiasm advantage, none, for the Democrats.
• 4:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now the key here,
• 4:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: is that it's not just this bombshell poll, we're now starting to get early vote numbers coming in particularly from the state of Ohio, which is traditionally an important bell weather state.
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_03]: Ohio has some pretty impressive predictive accuracy for how other states are good to vote.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: They certainly
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: The initial picture basically lines up with exactly what we're seeing with this Harvard Harris poll.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that's exactly what I want to show you here.
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: We're getting corroboration between the poll and the early voting.
• 5:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: So what we have to do here is
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: compare these latest returns in Ohio with the baseline from the last two statewide Senate races.
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: So in 2022, across the 10 Ohio counties were comparable male ballot data were reported.
• 5:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Democrat Tim Ryan built an enormous 67 to 32 advantage over JD Vance in the early mail-in vote, a lead of more than 30 points, more like 35 points.
• 5:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: When all the votes were counted on the election day, Vance won statewide Senate race by six points.
• 6:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Then just two years later, Sherrod Brown, who's running again, posted virtually the identical 6732 male-voted vanage over Bernie Moreno in that same kind of early vote environment.
• 6:22
  [SPEAKER_03]: And Moreno went on to win statewide on election day by nearly four points.
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: So that gives us a very useful measuring stick for Democrats in Ohio.
• 6:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: a roughly two-to-one advantage in the early male vote is not some sign that they're cruising historically.
• 6:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's been the kind of lead that they've needed to just almost compensate for the Republican strength that arrives on election day.
• 6:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: So through in-person early voting, election day turned out and the like, Republicans just generally crush it.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: So if the Democrat is going to win in Ohio, you see, he's gonna need an early vote lead that exceeds 35%.
• 7:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's gonna have to be more like 40%, right?
• 7:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: A 70, 30 to compensate for the deluge of election day voting by Republicans.
• 7:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: So it would have to be something akin to this 70, 30 split.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: So the question now for us, as we analyze these early,
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: What is the current make up of the early vote?
• 7:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: What's the split?
• 7:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: Are we seeing a 70, 30 split?
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Are we seeing Democrats achieving those kinds of margins they need to win the state of Ohio?
• 7:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's exactly what we're about to find out.
• 7:49
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• 7:59
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• 8:03
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• 8:06
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• 8:07
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• 8:09
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• 8:14
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• 8:20
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• 8:32
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• 8:33
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• 8:40
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• 8:41
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• 8:46
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• 8:51
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• 8:59
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• 10:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: So once again, that number is Triple 8, 59030233.
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: According to voter hub, the current early vote data is showing the Democrat shared brown, not sitting at the 67% we saw in 2022 and 2024.
• 11:15
  [SPEAKER_03]: nor is he sitting at the at least 70% needed to compensate for the massive Republican voting on election day gang right now as we speak at the end of September the Democrat is sitting at about 59% while the Republican John Houston is at 40%.
• 11:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's roughly an eight point improvement for the Republican side.
• 11:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's compared with 2022 and 2024 benchmark, and a nine-point drop from where Democrats had been in the same time period.
• 11:51
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now, a word of caution before we go any further.
• 11:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: Nobody should pretend that mail ballot requests or modeled return estimates are final votes.
• 12:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: They are not.
• 12:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: The numbers can move.
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: But that said, why are these numbers so significant?
• 12:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: because that nine-point drop in Democrat support in Ohio is exactly exactly what the Harvard Harris poll is showing.
• 12:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: Again, let's go back to Harvard Harris's numbers in 2018.
• 12:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: Democrats were up eight or nine points before they went on to win the house by 40 seats.
• 12:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: They are down eight or nine points from where they were at this time in 2018.
• 12:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then we go to the early vote no higher and what do we see?
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: We see a near exact decline in the early vote.
• 12:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: although this is from compared the comparing the benchmarks of 2020 to 2024, but the two pictures are virtually identical.
• 13:03
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Democrats are down significantly while the Republicans are up significantly, and that spells disaster for the Democrats at least when it comes to states that are competitive.
• 13:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: So for example, there's no statewide competitive race in Pennsylvania.
• 13:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: or in Virginia.
• 13:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: So those numbers are frankly insignificant.
• 13:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: They're going to be blue waves there.
• 13:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's already pretty much been decided.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: What is significant is Ohio because if Ohio is moving further to the right than the Pundits expected, then the national map starts to look very different.
• 13:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: Iowa has voted to the right of Ohio in virtually every recent presidential election as has Alaska.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: So if Ohio is moving to the right, that would mean that the Senate races in Iowa and Alaska as well as their house races are moving right as well.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: And then of course there's Texas, Texas votes to the right of both Iowa and Alaska.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, the idea that Texas is suddenly on the verge of flipping blue while the Senate race in Ohio is going hard or deep red is absolutely absurd since Texas always votes to the right of Ohio.
• 14:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, in 2018, Ted Cruz, that was the last real competitive race between the Republican
• 14:35
  [SPEAKER_03]: In 2018, after two years after Donald Trump carried Texas by eight points, back in 2016, and crew still won by two or three points.
• 14:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Since then, Texas has gone even redder.
• 14:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: In 2024, Trump carried Texas by roughly 14 points.
• 14:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: A substantially more Republican baseline than the state had in 2018.
• 14:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, Tala Rico, who's nowhere near as viable a candidate as Iraq was, is facing an electorate that substantially more conservative than a work faith.
• 15:10
  [SPEAKER_03]: So, the big takeaway is this.
• 15:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: The Ohio early vote data are not an election result, but they are currently signaling that Republicans are more competitive in the male vote than they were in the last two cycles.
• 15:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: A competitiveness that lines up almost exactly by the number with the latest Harvard Harris poll with Democrats dropping by eight or nine.
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: If that pattern holds, while Republicans maintain their traditional strength in election day voting, Democrats are going to have a much more difficult map than the national legacy media narrative is pushing or even remotely suggests.
• 15:53
  [SPEAKER_03]: So what does all this mean?
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: It means get your butts into gear and get out there and vote.
• 16:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Get your friends, your loved ones.
• 16:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Everyone you know to the polls.
• 16:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: The conditions are there for us to make history once again.
• 16:08
  [SPEAKER_03]: Remember only three midterm elections.
• 16:11
  [SPEAKER_03]: Since 1932 have reversed that trend of the party out of power gaining seats and this can be one of them.
• 16:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's our job to do everything we possibly can to make sure that our history making vote in November 2024 gets repeated again in 2026.
• 16:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thanks so much for listening to this episode of the Turley Talks Podcast.
• 16:33
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• 16:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Help us defeat the fake news media and rank us the number one news and commentary podcast all over the world.
• 16:46
  [SPEAKER_03]: Come back again tomorrow for another episode celebrating the rise of a new conservative age.