Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Keep it Up | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/19/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Keep it Up | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/19/26 · Toadstool Sports

0:17
Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
0:20
Speaker 1: your check, black coffee on the felt man, you look
0:24
Speaker 1: like a ment three teen Parlette turned the dust in
0:28
Speaker 1: your head.
0:29
Speaker 2: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
0:32
Speaker 2: this man. But don't you go quiet. Don't you fade
0:36
Speaker 2: from the floor.
0:38
Speaker 1: Your name steal means something on somebody for show.
0:41
Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me? No, hold on,
0:52
Speaker 3: hold on, nothing nice now, hold on, hold on and.
1:02
Speaker 4: Me but it all get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
1:18
Speaker 2: Stay with me. Now what's up? Everybody? It's towed back
1:29
Speaker 2: with you with Toadstool Sports. It is Friday, June nineteenth.
1:36
Speaker 2: We had a three and oh day on the show yesterday,
1:38
Speaker 2: depending on if you played the A's game the way
1:41
Speaker 2: that I recommended on the show. We did have a
1:45
Speaker 2: win in the afternoon with the World Cup with Switzerland.
1:49
Speaker 2: Switzerland pretty much dominated that game statistically, even though the
1:52
Speaker 2: game was scoreless, probably at the sixty minute mark. Beyond that,
1:56
Speaker 2: probably then Switzerland scored to go up one nothing, which
2:00
Speaker 2: they should have probably already been ahead at that point
2:02
Speaker 2: if you look at the stats in the game. But
2:04
Speaker 2: that sort of just made the game unravel. And Bosni
2:08
Speaker 2: had just started playing cheap pretty much and they got
2:12
Speaker 2: a red card, so they were then down a man.
2:14
Speaker 2: After that, I mean, the game was pretty much over
2:16
Speaker 2: at that point. Switzerland put another goal in at that
2:19
Speaker 2: point and then I stopped watching it. It's like, all right,
2:22
Speaker 2: it's two nothing, the game's over. There wasn't much time left.
2:25
Speaker 2: I don't know what happened, but the ninety minute mark
2:28
Speaker 2: and extra time saw three more goals scored. Switzerland scored,
2:33
Speaker 2: then Bosni has scored, then Switzerland scored again. I don't
2:36
Speaker 2: know what happened in that chaos at the end, but whatever,
2:39
Speaker 2: it was a deserved win for Switzerland, though based on
2:43
Speaker 2: the stats in the game, I think it was the
2:44
Speaker 2: right call. Then we had Major League Baseball Kansas City.
2:49
Speaker 2: In the first five innings, it was a win. It
2:52
Speaker 2: wasn't what I thought it was gonna be. They were
2:54
Speaker 2: winning eleven to four at the end of the fifth inning,
2:57
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure was what it was, and they won.
3:00
Speaker 2: I think the final in that game was fourteen to six.
3:04
Speaker 2: It was completely ridiculous. Yeah, Like it got to a
3:07
Speaker 2: point where it was like Kansas City was winning I
3:11
Speaker 2: think seven to two in the third inning, and then
3:14
Speaker 2: it looked like they were gonna blow that, and all
3:16
Speaker 2: of a sudden, it's seven to three, Saint Louis has
3:18
Speaker 2: the bases loaded. I'm like, this is ridiculous. But Noah
3:22
Speaker 2: Cameron got out of that jam. He wasn't great in
3:24
Speaker 2: the game, but he was better than Libra Torre, who
3:27
Speaker 2: was out of the game before the second inning was over.
3:30
Speaker 2: So we did get the win. Kansas City put up
3:32
Speaker 2: a ton of runs in that game, so I think
3:35
Speaker 2: it was the right call. We got it right. And
3:37
Speaker 2: then if you did what I said with the A's game,
3:40
Speaker 2: because the thing was that Soriano was listed as day
3:43
Speaker 2: to day with some injury, and I'm like, well, why
3:46
Speaker 2: is that. It looked like he was gonna start, And
3:48
Speaker 2: I liked the handicap that way too, but I said, basically,
3:53
Speaker 2: I said what you should do is pick Gage Jump
3:55
Speaker 2: must start, but don't select an Angel's star Harder to start,
4:01
Speaker 2: because Soriano there was a chance he wouldn't start, and
4:04
Speaker 2: that's what happened. He didn't start, so Anaheim went with
4:07
Speaker 2: some sort of spot starter or bullpen game or something.
4:10
Speaker 2: Gauge Jump was good. On the other side, the A's
4:13
Speaker 2: wound up winning the game five nothing. I think it
4:15
Speaker 2: was five nothing at the end of the first five
4:17
Speaker 2: as well, but that was a winner as well as
4:20
Speaker 2: long as you played it that way. So I am
4:22
Speaker 2: counting that as a win because I said that specifically
4:26
Speaker 2: on the show, which typically I don't do that. Like
4:29
Speaker 2: I had to take a no play on the Detroit
4:31
Speaker 2: play earlier in the week because that one, I don't
4:35
Speaker 2: really know if I would have wanted it with the
4:36
Speaker 2: bullpen game going on for Detroit. So but last night,
4:40
Speaker 2: like I said, like, anybody that would fill in for
4:43
Speaker 2: Soriana was gonna be a downgrade for Anaheim, and that
4:46
Speaker 2: is that was the case. If you got to it late,
4:49
Speaker 2: you had to pay more of a price on the A's.
4:52
Speaker 2: Like once it was announced that Soriana wasn't in, I
4:55
Speaker 2: knew that that had to have been the announcement before
4:57
Speaker 2: I even looked to see because I was looking at
4:59
Speaker 2: the odds and I'm I'm like, Oh, all of a sudden,
5:01
Speaker 2: the A's are like minus one eighty on the full
5:04
Speaker 2: game to win this thing another or whatever it was.
5:07
Speaker 2: I think it was. It might have been minus one
5:08
Speaker 2: eighty in the first five and then the minus half
5:10
Speaker 2: run was like minus one thirty in the first five.
5:13
Speaker 2: I'm like, I guess Soreano's not pitching, so that was correct.
5:18
Speaker 2: But so we got a good number on that too,
5:20
Speaker 2: if you played it the way that I recommended in
5:22
Speaker 2: the morning. But whatever, I'm rambling, Kyle, what's up? Thanks
5:25
Speaker 2: for hanging out, mister Pinsey. What's up? Yeah, that's why
5:31
Speaker 2: they call me the throat God. It's not for any
5:33
Speaker 2: other reason. All right, Baseball, we do have one afternoon
5:38
Speaker 2: Wrigley Field game. I'm giving out two plays here on
5:40
Speaker 2: the show today, both in baseball, one side, one total soccer.
5:46
Speaker 2: I mean, I have, I guess one opinion that's stronger
5:49
Speaker 2: than the rest I have. I'll give out like a
5:52
Speaker 2: somewhat strong opinion in the WNBA, but I don't think
5:55
Speaker 2: I like either one enough to do it. Plus, those
5:58
Speaker 2: are kind of my sports that I don't know enough about,
6:01
Speaker 2: so I'm sticking with baseball in the card today. I
6:04
Speaker 2: do not have a play in this afternoon game. Every
6:06
Speaker 2: play is in the evening for me. Here, Toronto and
6:09
Speaker 2: the Cubs wriggly with one of these patented Wrigley Field
6:13
Speaker 2: after noon games. Like I was alluding to him, Toronto
6:17
Speaker 2: played yesterday and the Cubs did not, so Toronto is
6:21
Speaker 2: an a rest disadvantage here. The Cubs are actually staying
6:24
Speaker 2: at home. They played the Rockies two days ago and
6:27
Speaker 2: I believe wound up winning that series. Toronto just swept
6:31
Speaker 2: the Red Sox and now they're coming in. The Red
6:33
Speaker 2: Sox cannot score at all. And by the way, I
6:35
Speaker 2: did make a mistake. Max Schurzer didn't pitch in that
6:39
Speaker 2: game where the Red Sox got shut out. Sures are
6:42
Speaker 2: he might not be back, dude, he might, his career
6:45
Speaker 2: might just be over. I have no idea, but he
6:47
Speaker 2: did not pitch in that game. So the Red Sox
6:49
Speaker 2: failed to hit whoever the fill in starter was for
6:52
Speaker 2: Toronto there, so it wasn't as bad. I think failing
6:58
Speaker 2: to hit Max Schurzer is probably worse, like more of
7:02
Speaker 2: an indictment than failing to hit a spot starter. But
7:04
Speaker 2: whatever Toronto might be in maybe a little bit of
7:07
Speaker 2: a letdown off of a divisional sweep like that plus
7:09
Speaker 2: having to travel, I think the Cubs set up a
7:12
Speaker 2: little bit better in this game. Toronto used some relief
7:16
Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday they only used two, though Cubs do have
7:19
Speaker 2: the better bullpen and they're more rested. They're ranked tenth.
7:22
Speaker 2: I arranged this by Whip Toronto is eleventh. I think
7:26
Speaker 2: there was a little bit more of a gap than that,
7:28
Speaker 2: although it doesn't really look that way based on the numbers,
7:30
Speaker 2: but I think the Cubs do have the better bullpen here.
7:33
Speaker 2: Cubs have the better offense. They're ranked tenth, the Blue
7:36
Speaker 2: Jays are twenty second. They have not hit very well.
7:40
Speaker 2: This does look like a pitching dual, and the odds
7:42
Speaker 2: makers are also telling you that lining the game at
7:46
Speaker 2: seven on the total here, which also could mean that
7:49
Speaker 2: there's wind blowing in here too. But I think a
7:51
Speaker 2: seven might be appropriate just based on the starting pitching
7:54
Speaker 2: alone here, So it might not even be a windy
7:58
Speaker 2: day here. It might just be in I really based
8:00
Speaker 2: on the starting pitching. Kevin Goussman is pitching for the
8:03
Speaker 2: Blue Jays. He's been good three point four to one
8:06
Speaker 2: ERA one point zero three WHIP, little bit worse on
8:09
Speaker 2: the road three point eight to nine road ERA, but
8:12
Speaker 2: he's been really good this month in three starts, twenty
8:15
Speaker 2: to four strike out walk ratio. He's allowed a few
8:18
Speaker 2: too many runs, I guess you could say, but he's
8:20
Speaker 2: faced some pretty good offenses in here. I'm not gonna
8:23
Speaker 2: really knock him for that. He got a little bit unlucky,
8:26
Speaker 2: I would say, just allowing too many home runs this month,
8:29
Speaker 2: but I think that's more fluky. He hasn't allowed a
8:31
Speaker 2: lot of hits. His command numbers are good here, same
8:34
Speaker 2: is the same goes for the whole season with them.
8:37
Speaker 2: Low hit rate, low walk rate, strike out rate is
8:41
Speaker 2: run around one per inning, which is pretty strong. And
8:45
Speaker 2: he's got good numbers against Chicago as well here eighty
8:47
Speaker 2: three at bats one sixty nine batting average, five to
8:50
Speaker 2: twenty six ops, twenty six to six strikeout walk ratio.
8:55
Speaker 2: So I don't really want to fade Goussman here. I
8:58
Speaker 2: think if you're gonna play the you're playing on the
9:01
Speaker 2: fact that they have the rest advantage. They do have
9:03
Speaker 2: a good starting pitcher here still, and they have a
9:06
Speaker 2: bullpen advantage, So I think that's why you're playing the
9:08
Speaker 2: Cobs here. If you do want them, the price actually
9:12
Speaker 2: might be a little bit cheap, because I think Goussman
9:14
Speaker 2: is getting more respect from the market than Ben Brown is.
9:18
Speaker 2: But Ben Brown easily can can hang with Gousman though.
9:22
Speaker 2: The way that he's been pitching one point seven to
9:25
Speaker 2: four ERA point nine to seven whip from him. He
9:28
Speaker 2: is slightly worse at home two point zero five ERA.
9:31
Speaker 2: That's not even bad though. Now a lot of these
9:33
Speaker 2: numbers were him making relief appearances. But he's been in
9:37
Speaker 2: the starting rotation for a while now, like I think,
9:40
Speaker 2: at least a month, and he's been good. He's allowed
9:43
Speaker 2: one or fewer earned runs and four straight outings now
9:46
Speaker 2: going at least five innings in every one of those
9:48
Speaker 2: last two outings were against San Francisco, so those were
9:51
Speaker 2: easier outings because that's a weak offense that he was
9:54
Speaker 2: facing there, and he did walk a few too many.
9:57
Speaker 2: I guess in those outings maybe a strikeout rate was
10:00
Speaker 2: a little bit too low. But he's still I would
10:02
Speaker 2: say he's still in good form right now. I think
10:05
Speaker 2: he's good. His numbers on the season. He's got a
10:07
Speaker 2: really low hit rate, his walk rates not bad either.
10:10
Speaker 2: Strike out rate is alright. He has very similar numbers
10:13
Speaker 2: to Goussman actually if you look at it that way,
10:16
Speaker 2: and against Toronto they only have fifteen at bats against them,
10:20
Speaker 2: although they have actually succeeded against him three point thirty
10:23
Speaker 2: three batting average allowed nine to seventy five ops two
10:28
Speaker 2: to one strike out walk ratio. I don't want to
10:29
Speaker 2: put too much weight into that because it's such a
10:31
Speaker 2: small sample size. I don't actually think Brown is gonna
10:34
Speaker 2: pitch poorly here. I believe the money is back in
10:37
Speaker 2: the Cubs here. Let me say, yeah, it is sixty
10:40
Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the catch on
10:42
Speaker 2: the Cubs at around minus one twenty, and I kind
10:46
Speaker 2: of agree with it because they do have the rest
10:48
Speaker 2: advantage here, plus the bullpen advantage, plus I think the
10:51
Speaker 2: pitchers are kind of closely matched. I think the undermakes
10:55
Speaker 2: sense in this game as well. You got two alright bullpens.
10:58
Speaker 2: They're both pretty rest did here. The totals at seven,
11:02
Speaker 2: it's low for a reason. The money is coming in
11:04
Speaker 2: on the over though, seventy four percent of tickets ninety
11:07
Speaker 2: one percent of the cash on the over. I think
11:09
Speaker 2: the under makes more sense in that game, probably the
11:12
Speaker 2: way I would lean in that game. I think I
11:15
Speaker 2: would lean to the under, and more so than the
11:17
Speaker 2: side in that game. Really. But Brown's matchup numbers, even
11:20
Speaker 2: though it's a small sample size, they do kind of
11:22
Speaker 2: scare me off of it a little bit. Sometimes You
11:25
Speaker 2: shouldn't be totally scared off of it by the by
11:30
Speaker 2: a small sample size in the matchup numbers. But I
11:32
Speaker 2: still take that into account and it might be like
11:36
Speaker 2: part of the deciding factor for me. I don't know,
11:37
Speaker 2: it's just the way that I do it. Maybe it's
11:39
Speaker 2: my autism. Just like you can't do it, man, You
11:42
Speaker 2: can't play on a guy that has matchup numbers like this. Gerald,
11:45
Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out all right? Evening Baseball
11:49
Speaker 2: White Sox and Detroit. Both teams here are in negative spots.
11:53
Speaker 2: Here Detroit is returning home from a road trip. They're
11:56
Speaker 2: staying in the Central time zone though they went to
11:58
Speaker 2: Cleveland and then Houston, but still they've been away for
12:01
Speaker 2: a week. You know, when a team returns home from
12:03
Speaker 2: the road, a lot of times they'll be distracted and
12:05
Speaker 2: get back to home life and whatever. So it isn't
12:07
Speaker 2: negative for Detroit, but they might not overlook the White
12:11
Speaker 2: Sox because Detroit's in last place in an ale center
12:14
Speaker 2: where they were supposed to be one of the better
12:16
Speaker 2: teams in the division, and the White Sox have come
12:19
Speaker 2: from out of nowhere and are tied in first place
12:21
Speaker 2: with Cleveland right now. So I don't know that Detroit's
12:25
Speaker 2: really gonna overlook the White Sox, so it might be
12:27
Speaker 2: an opponent that they will still focus on. The White
12:31
Speaker 2: Sox also could be in a letdown spot, possibly because
12:34
Speaker 2: they just beat the Yankees yesterday. That's always big when
12:36
Speaker 2: you beat the Yankees. Like I know, the White Sox
12:39
Speaker 2: have kind of already proven themselves here and they won
12:41
Speaker 2: a series against the Dodgers, but beating the Yankees in
12:45
Speaker 2: the Bronx, I mean, that's still a pretty big win
12:47
Speaker 2: for them yesterday, even if the Yankees might have overlooked
12:51
Speaker 2: them a little bit because the Yankees had already won
12:53
Speaker 2: the series. White Sox are traveling in from New York now,
12:56
Speaker 2: so they are having to travel. Detroit was actually off
12:59
Speaker 2: yesterday by so Detroit is more rested here, but they
13:03
Speaker 2: have more travel So Detroit does have a rest advantage here.
13:10
Speaker 2: But you know, they're negatives for both both teams in
13:12
Speaker 2: the situation here. The White Sox use some amount of
13:16
Speaker 2: their bullpen yesterday, they only use one guy actually out
13:18
Speaker 2: of their bullpen, so their bullpen is fairly rested here.
13:22
Speaker 2: Their bullpen's not great. Their ranked seventeenth. Detroit is ranked
13:25
Speaker 2: nineteenth Detroit's bullpen Eer Ray is a little bit better,
13:28
Speaker 2: though I think Detroit does have the somewhat better bullpen here,
13:32
Speaker 2: but they're both mediocre ish bullpens. White Sox are the
13:36
Speaker 2: better offense. I don't think there's any question about that.
13:38
Speaker 2: They're tied in seventh in offense. The Tigers are twenty second,
13:43
Speaker 2: so they are not a very good offense right now.
13:46
Speaker 2: But all that being said, this is a huge starting
13:49
Speaker 2: pitching mismatch here in favor of Detroit. Eric Fetti looks
13:53
Speaker 2: like he's getting the start for the White Sox here,
13:55
Speaker 2: although I wouldn't be one hundred percent sure that they
13:57
Speaker 2: will do that. So if you're gonna do something with
14:00
Speaker 2: this game, I would probably pick Scoobale must start for
14:03
Speaker 2: Detroit because that's a huge part of the handicap obviously,
14:06
Speaker 2: and he looks like he is starting. White Sox probably
14:10
Speaker 2: are gonna have Fetti pitching in this game, but they
14:12
Speaker 2: might put an opener in front of him because they
14:14
Speaker 2: have done that multiple times this year. So I am
14:17
Speaker 2: not one hundred percent sure that he will actually pitch
14:20
Speaker 2: to start the game here, but I think he will
14:23
Speaker 2: pitch in the game and get Like the majority of
14:25
Speaker 2: the pitching duties here. Fetti is not really good. Four
14:30
Speaker 2: point five ERA, one point four to one whip that's
14:32
Speaker 2: not great. He's been bad on the road six point
14:35
Speaker 2: one eight road ERA that's not good. Didn't last long
14:39
Speaker 2: in his last outing against the Dodgers. I don't know
14:41
Speaker 2: why they shortened it though, because he wasn't actually pitching
14:43
Speaker 2: that badly. He didn't give up any runs. I don't
14:46
Speaker 2: know if he got injured or I don't know what
14:47
Speaker 2: the deal is there, but he's bas He looks like
14:49
Speaker 2: he's pitching on schedule here, so I don't know. Uh,
14:53
Speaker 2: He's actually been okay this month though, Fetti. He's only
14:56
Speaker 2: allowed one run in twelve and two thirds innings this month,
14:59
Speaker 2: and he had to past the Dodgers and the Braves.
15:02
Speaker 2: But he has actually strike out walk ratio is not
15:05
Speaker 2: that bad either, ten to three. So Fetti is actually
15:08
Speaker 2: in somewhat better form recently. I still don't trust him.
15:12
Speaker 2: He's got a somewhat high hit rate, his walk rate
15:15
Speaker 2: is too high, strikeout rate is really low, so he
15:17
Speaker 2: doesn't fool anybody. And you look at his numbers against Detroit,
15:21
Speaker 2: they're not good. They've seen a decent amount of him
15:24
Speaker 2: forty eight at bats, two ninety two average, nine point
15:26
Speaker 2: fifty eight ohps, eleven three strikeout walk ratio. So I
15:30
Speaker 2: would still not want to trust Fetti here. Scooball, like
15:33
Speaker 2: I said, is pitching for the Tigers here. I mean
15:37
Speaker 2: pretty much. You can just assume that he's gonna pitch
15:40
Speaker 2: well in every start that he's gonna make. I would
15:42
Speaker 2: not want to bank on him not pitching well. It's
15:45
Speaker 2: just kind of a matter of price and whatever. Two
15:48
Speaker 2: point eight one ERA point nine to eight whip from him.
15:51
Speaker 2: He has been a little bit worse at home this
15:53
Speaker 2: year three point five to five home ra. But he
15:55
Speaker 2: hasn't pitched that much this year so far because he
15:58
Speaker 2: got injured in late April and it was unclear when
16:01
Speaker 2: he was going to come back, and he came back.
16:04
Speaker 2: In his most recent start, he wasn't great against Cleveland.
16:07
Speaker 2: He didn't make it five innings in the game, did
16:09
Speaker 2: give up two earned runs, but he was fine, I
16:12
Speaker 2: think in the game. I know Cleveland is a weak
16:14
Speaker 2: offense and whatever, and a bunch of their hitters just
16:17
Speaker 2: recently went down four to one strike out walk ratio
16:21
Speaker 2: in four and two thirds innings. Though it looks like
16:23
Speaker 2: Schoolbol's command was there. They pulled him at eighty pitches.
16:26
Speaker 2: I think they didn't want to overwork him and whatever.
16:29
Speaker 2: He didn't get any runs support in the game, so whatever.
16:31
Speaker 2: But I think Schooball is going to be back in
16:33
Speaker 2: form at some point, probably in the near future, possibly
16:38
Speaker 2: in this start. I wouldn't really want to fade him here.
16:42
Speaker 2: He's going to be going up against the White Sox.
16:44
Speaker 2: Though they are good offense, but they have not done
16:46
Speaker 2: well against him in the past. They only have six
16:49
Speaker 2: guys who have faced him, but forty three at bats.
16:52
Speaker 2: They only have a two point nine average against him
16:54
Speaker 2: five hundred ops nine to two strike out walk ratio.
16:57
Speaker 2: I would not want to fade school Ball. Like I said,
17:00
Speaker 2: I don't really ever want to fade him unless there's
17:03
Speaker 2: like a really, really good reason to do so. Detroit
17:06
Speaker 2: has eighty three percent of the tickets, eighty four percent
17:09
Speaker 2: of the cash on them. They look like a public side.
17:11
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think you can lame minus two
17:14
Speaker 2: thirty or whatever with Detroit in a return home spot.
17:17
Speaker 2: There's no way that I would recommend that. You know,
17:23
Speaker 2: it seems like you could maybe go with Detroit over
17:26
Speaker 2: their team total or something. Just go with Detroit to
17:29
Speaker 2: score runs against this White Sox pitching staff here that
17:32
Speaker 2: includes fetti, and the money is hitting the over with
17:35
Speaker 2: the total at eight sixty eight percent of the tickets
17:38
Speaker 2: ninety one percent of the cash on the over. But
17:40
Speaker 2: I don't love offenses when they're returning home from a
17:43
Speaker 2: road trip either, and Detroit's offense has not been stellar
17:46
Speaker 2: at all, so I don't really want to do that either. Plus,
17:49
Speaker 2: if you do it that way, you're taking the advantage
17:51
Speaker 2: that you get with schooball out of the equation. I mean, yeah,
17:58
Speaker 2: I just don't see a real way to play game, man.
18:00
Speaker 2: I just don't. There's too many factors that are kind
18:03
Speaker 2: of going against each other in the game. So that
18:06
Speaker 2: game is definitely a pass for me, Dirty Sock, what's up?
18:10
Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. The next game is Cincinnati and
18:16
Speaker 2: the Yankees. The Yankees played yesterday, but they're staying at home.
18:20
Speaker 2: They just lost to the White Sox, losing a four
18:23
Speaker 2: game win streak. Sometimes when you lose a win streak,
18:25
Speaker 2: it'll hang you over into the next game. But the
18:27
Speaker 2: Yankees are going to be a massive favor here. They
18:29
Speaker 2: have a huge starting pitching advantage here, So I don't
18:33
Speaker 2: think the Yankees are gonna lose. I don't think I
18:35
Speaker 2: want to fade them here. Cincinnati is traveling in from Cincinnati,
18:40
Speaker 2: so they're starting a road trip here. It's a focused
18:43
Speaker 2: spot for Cincinnati at the very least. They're just not
18:45
Speaker 2: a good team. Though. When a team starts a road trip,
18:49
Speaker 2: they should be focused. And they're going to the Bronx.
18:52
Speaker 2: You know they're playing the Yankees, so you got to
18:54
Speaker 2: expect Cincinnati will be focused. Cincinnati does have a rest
18:58
Speaker 2: advantage because they didn't play yesterday, but the Yankees have
19:01
Speaker 2: a travel advantage because they're not traveling. The Yankees did
19:05
Speaker 2: use three relief pitchers yesterday, but they still have the
19:08
Speaker 2: better bullpen anyway. The Yankees are ranked ninth. Their bullpenny
19:11
Speaker 2: ray is pretty good. Cincinnati's still ranked dead last and
19:16
Speaker 2: bullpen although their eray is not actually the worst, but
19:19
Speaker 2: they're third worst in bullpenny ray. So there is a
19:22
Speaker 2: pretty big bullpen advantage for the Yankees here. Despite the
19:25
Speaker 2: rest scenario. Yankees are number two in offense. The Reds
19:29
Speaker 2: are where are they even at? The Reds are twenty first,
19:33
Speaker 2: so the Reds have fallen off again. Yankees have the
19:35
Speaker 2: advantage there as well. Rhett Louder's pitcher for Cincinnati. He's
19:40
Speaker 2: a young guy. He might have some talent, but he
19:42
Speaker 2: doesn't look like he has great strikeout stuff and he
19:45
Speaker 2: doesn't have good numbers. I would not trust him. Four
19:48
Speaker 2: point six ERA, one point four to three whip. He's
19:51
Speaker 2: been bad on the road, five point eight to four
19:53
Speaker 2: road ray. That's not good. Pitch well in his last
19:57
Speaker 2: start against Arizona at home, so that was a good
20:00
Speaker 2: outing from him, But he walked five guys in three
20:02
Speaker 2: innings against Saint Louis the start before that, even though
20:05
Speaker 2: he didn't allow any runs in that game. That walk
20:09
Speaker 2: number is very concerning. He said multiple walks and all
20:12
Speaker 2: of his starts to go all the way back through
20:15
Speaker 2: the beginning of May, which is only four starts because
20:17
Speaker 2: I think he was possibly back down in the minors
20:20
Speaker 2: or something. I don't know. But his strikeout walk ratio
20:23
Speaker 2: over that span is very bad. It's twelve strikeouts to
20:26
Speaker 2: fifteen walks. That is not going to cut it. And
20:29
Speaker 2: over the course of the season, his walk rate is
20:31
Speaker 2: way too high, more than one every two innings. His
20:34
Speaker 2: hit rate is okay, doesn't allow that many hits. Strike
20:37
Speaker 2: out rate is low as well. Again, I don't think
20:40
Speaker 2: he's a trustworthy pitcher. The Yankees have never faced him before,
20:43
Speaker 2: except Bellinger and Goldschmid have actually faced him for four
20:48
Speaker 2: at bats, but the rest of the team hasn't faced
20:50
Speaker 2: him before. Gold Schmidt does have a double off him,
20:53
Speaker 2: Bellinger has a walk, and neither struck out against him.
20:56
Speaker 2: I don't think there's a whole lot to see there
20:58
Speaker 2: with four at bats, But I just don't trust Louder.
21:01
Speaker 2: I don't expect him to do particularly well here, even
21:04
Speaker 2: though the Yankees haven't really seen him in that unfamiliarity
21:07
Speaker 2: can help the pitcher. The unfamiliarity goes both ways here.
21:10
Speaker 2: Because Cam Schlitzler is pitching for the Yankees. He's obviously
21:14
Speaker 2: the way better pitcher here one point eight two e
21:17
Speaker 2: RA point nine to one whip. He's way more established
21:20
Speaker 2: at this point. He's not as good at home three
21:23
Speaker 2: point zero three homey RA, which is still good. You know,
21:27
Speaker 2: it's just a more hitter friendly park whatever. Both pitchers
21:29
Speaker 2: are in the worst of their home road splits. But
21:32
Speaker 2: I do not expect Schlittler to pitch poorly here. He's
21:35
Speaker 2: been pitching well all season. Really, he's allowed more than
21:38
Speaker 2: three earn runs only one time. He's got a pretty
21:41
Speaker 2: high strikeout rate, low hit rate, low walk rate. Everything
21:44
Speaker 2: looks good here and against the Reds. Like I said,
21:47
Speaker 2: they basically have no experience against him, They're pretty much
21:51
Speaker 2: the same almost. They have four at bats across two
21:54
Speaker 2: hitters against him Low and my Ers Nathaniel Low briefly
22:00
Speaker 2: briefly on the Red Sox Nathaniel Low, one strike out,
22:03
Speaker 2: one walk in here the only hits a single from Low. Whatever.
22:08
Speaker 2: Yankees likely win this game, but they're heavily heavily favored here.
22:13
Speaker 2: I don't think you can lay a price like this
22:15
Speaker 2: minus two sixty something minus two seventy with the Yankees.
22:18
Speaker 2: The money is actually fading them ninety three percent of
22:21
Speaker 2: the tickets eighty seven percent of the cash on the Yankees.
22:25
Speaker 2: I think it's really just because the Yankees are clearly
22:28
Speaker 2: just overpriced in the market. But does that mean they're
22:31
Speaker 2: gonna lose? No, you know, I kind of doubt that
22:34
Speaker 2: they do. The money's also playing the over and the
22:39
Speaker 2: totals at eight and a half, which seems like a
22:40
Speaker 2: pretty high total for Schlitzler game, really I think the
22:45
Speaker 2: way to probably play this is to just play Yankees
22:48
Speaker 2: over their team total. I mean, I sound like a
22:50
Speaker 2: broken record with that, but I mean that seems like
22:53
Speaker 2: the way to play this game because you can't really
22:55
Speaker 2: play the side at this price. I wouldn't really want
22:57
Speaker 2: to lay a run line that you might have to lay,
22:59
Speaker 2: like two runs or something. Cincinnati's pitching staff should give
23:04
Speaker 2: up runs to the Yankees here, and the Yankees are
23:06
Speaker 2: the highest scoring home team in baseball, so I think
23:10
Speaker 2: that's probably more the way I would look at it.
23:12
Speaker 2: Even though that does remove Schlitzler h the advantage that
23:16
Speaker 2: you get from him. It takes that out of the equation.
23:18
Speaker 2: I don't like doing that. Like when you have an
23:21
Speaker 2: ace pitcher school bull Schlitzler, I wouldn't want to take
23:24
Speaker 2: them out of the out of what I'm doing, you know,
23:26
Speaker 2: in the game. It's just that it's really difficult to
23:28
Speaker 2: find a way to play those teams on the actual side.
23:32
Speaker 2: San Francisco at Miami, I consider putting this game on
23:35
Speaker 2: my card, even though we don't know who Miami is
23:37
Speaker 2: gonna start here. If you look five games ago, Miami
23:41
Speaker 2: went with a bullpen game, So I'm pretty sure Miami's
23:43
Speaker 2: going with a bullpen game here. But their bullpen is
23:46
Speaker 2: actually pretty good and it's rested here. So I'm not
23:49
Speaker 2: one hundred percent sure that I actually want to fade
23:52
Speaker 2: Miami's bullpen here. I'm also not one hundred percent sure
23:55
Speaker 2: I want to back land and roup here. Roupe, however
23:58
Speaker 2: you pronounce his name Miami. Though they're in a bad spot.
24:01
Speaker 2: They're returning home from the road. They went to Pittsburgh
24:04
Speaker 2: and Philadelphia, and you know what I always say, even
24:06
Speaker 2: though they're not traveling across time zones, you know what
24:09
Speaker 2: I say, team returning home from the road, a lot
24:11
Speaker 2: of times they'll be distracted. They have to get back
24:14
Speaker 2: to home life. I don't think facing the Giants is
24:16
Speaker 2: that big of a deal for them. They just clobbered
24:18
Speaker 2: Philly in their last game, so they might be in
24:20
Speaker 2: a little bit of a letdown off of that win
24:22
Speaker 2: as well, even though they had to salvage the one
24:25
Speaker 2: game in that series. There not a good spot for
24:28
Speaker 2: Miami though. On the return home, they're playing San Francisco.
24:34
Speaker 2: San Francisco also didn't play yesterday because their last game
24:37
Speaker 2: got rained out a lot of bad weather. As Garrett,
24:40
Speaker 2: I think pointed or no, it was. Pete in the
24:42
Speaker 2: chat pointed out that Atlanta had some bad storms going
24:47
Speaker 2: through there, so that game was indeed rained out. So
24:49
Speaker 2: San Francisco also didn't play yesterday, so we have two
24:53
Speaker 2: teams that are rested here. San Francisco is only traveling
24:56
Speaker 2: from Atlanta to Miami, so that's not too bad. As
25:00
Speaker 2: far as the bullpen's, Miami is the better bullpen. They're
25:02
Speaker 2: ranked fourth here, Sab I see you in the chat
25:06
Speaker 2: in one second, welcome back man. And then we got
25:10
Speaker 2: the Giants at twenty fifth in bullpen. Their bullpen ERA
25:14
Speaker 2: is better than that, Like they're not like actually a
25:16
Speaker 2: bottom ten bullpen, but they're not a great bullpen. So
25:20
Speaker 2: Miami does have the better bullpen here. Giants are ranked eleventh,
25:23
Speaker 2: and offense in Miami is twentieth. But I don't think
25:26
Speaker 2: the Giants offense is good. Like I said, they had
25:28
Speaker 2: like three massive outlier offensive performance instead of skewing their numbers.
25:33
Speaker 2: Landon Route is pitching for the Giants here, Like I said,
25:37
Speaker 2: I think he's a decent pitcher, four point twenty four
25:40
Speaker 2: ERA one point two to nine. Whip is getting a
25:42
Speaker 2: little bit high, though he's better on the road this
25:45
Speaker 2: year three point nine to five roadyra and this will
25:48
Speaker 2: be a pitcher friendly environment, although the Giants Stadium is
25:52
Speaker 2: supposed to be pitcher friendly, and he hasn't pitched that
25:54
Speaker 2: well here. My main issue with Route, though, is that
25:57
Speaker 2: he's not pitching well this month. He has ten walks
26:00
Speaker 2: in fourteen to third innings, as I mentioned yesterday, because
26:03
Speaker 2: he was supposed to pitch yesterday fourteen to ten strikeout
26:06
Speaker 2: walk Razier this month. That's not gonna do it, man.
26:09
Speaker 2: I mean, those numbers tell you that his command is
26:11
Speaker 2: off right now, so that's not good. He didn't make
26:15
Speaker 2: it five innings in his last game against the Cubs,
26:17
Speaker 2: but maybe you give him a pass because it was
26:19
Speaker 2: a second straight start against the Cubs, so they knew
26:22
Speaker 2: what they had to do to make adjustments to the
26:24
Speaker 2: first game against him, even though he walked too many
26:27
Speaker 2: guys in that game too. He does not have good
26:29
Speaker 2: numbers against the Cubs historically though, so I actually faded
26:34
Speaker 2: him in the first game against the Cubs and we
26:35
Speaker 2: barely got the win there. But yeah, I just don't
26:38
Speaker 2: trust him right now. Though overall, his numbers are not
26:40
Speaker 2: too bad. He's got a high strikeout rate still nice.
26:43
Speaker 2: Ground ball rate, induces a lot of ground balls. He's
26:46
Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, but his walks are a problem.
26:49
Speaker 2: His walk rate is definitely still too high. Roupe against Miami,
26:55
Speaker 2: I believe he does have good numbers here. Well, yeah,
26:58
Speaker 2: they only have twenty three at bats against them, They
27:00
Speaker 2: have one hit. Their only hit against them as a
27:03
Speaker 2: single from Liam Hicks. They have five strikeouts, two walks.
27:06
Speaker 2: That's an forty three batting average in one sixty three ops.
27:10
Speaker 2: So yeah, raup has dominated Miami when he's facing them,
27:14
Speaker 2: So he does draw a pretty good match up here,
27:17
Speaker 2: and with Miami in the return home spot, Miami is
27:20
Speaker 2: going with a bullpen game here most likely. Like I
27:23
Speaker 2: have said, though their bullpen is actually decent and they've
27:27
Speaker 2: had some decent bullpen games. I don't think I quite
27:30
Speaker 2: want to do it. Raup Is is not in great
27:32
Speaker 2: form right now, but I do like San Francisco in
27:34
Speaker 2: this one, and you get them as an underdog here,
27:37
Speaker 2: I think I would go first five. Well maybe not
27:40
Speaker 2: because I know Miami has the better bullpen, but Miami's
27:42
Speaker 2: bullpen is gonna be pitching the entire game, So yeah,
27:46
Speaker 2: I think just San Francisco full game. Maybe on the
27:49
Speaker 2: side actually makes sense here. I think that's what I
27:52
Speaker 2: would do if I was gonna play the game. This
27:54
Speaker 2: one is not quite gonna make my card, but hold on,
27:57
Speaker 2: whereas Roupe here there he is. San Francisco is getting
28:02
Speaker 2: the money fifty seven percent of the tickets ninety four
28:05
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. So do with that
28:07
Speaker 2: info what you want. But it looks like the money
28:10
Speaker 2: is agreeing with me on San Francisco. There. Money is
28:13
Speaker 2: also backing the over at eight. I don't really have
28:16
Speaker 2: a good opinion on the total there. I'm not sure
28:18
Speaker 2: I would want to go over in that game, but
28:21
Speaker 2: I like San Francisco on the side, and you're getting
28:23
Speaker 2: them as an underdog because Miami's around minus won twenty
28:27
Speaker 2: something here, so you're getting a team that has a
28:29
Speaker 2: good shot to win the game. I think as an
28:31
Speaker 2: underdog a lot of times. That is the way that
28:33
Speaker 2: I like to look in these money line sports like this.
28:36
Speaker 2: So that's close to being a play for me. SOB,
28:42
Speaker 2: you're on the under two and a half in USA
28:44
Speaker 2: and Australia. I struggle with that one because I don't
28:49
Speaker 2: know if I agree with that. I mean the USA. Definitely,
28:52
Speaker 2: they scored more goals than they should have. There was
28:54
Speaker 2: an own goal there. So I would agree with playing
28:56
Speaker 2: an under in a USA game coming off of a
28:59
Speaker 2: game like that. Australia I think overperformed though, so I
29:03
Speaker 2: don't know like you could wind up getting that win,
29:08
Speaker 2: like it could be like a two nothing USA win
29:10
Speaker 2: or something, so you know, it might be something like that.
29:14
Speaker 2: I agree with you on Scotland. I'll talk about that
29:17
Speaker 2: in a minute. And Paraguay, I don't really have. I
29:20
Speaker 2: don't have a good read on that game or that match.
29:23
Speaker 2: I think both Paraguay and whoever their opponent is, they
29:26
Speaker 2: think are both in positive spots. There a free bet
29:32
Speaker 2: on the USA. What did you play them on the
29:33
Speaker 2: money line? What did you do? I wouldn't. I would
29:36
Speaker 2: not play the USA. They're not my favorite play there.
29:39
Speaker 2: They clearly overperformed in their last game. The USA is overrated,
29:45
Speaker 2: and again the USA is going to be overvalued in
29:48
Speaker 2: the entire World Cup in the unless they play a
29:51
Speaker 2: team that's like a powerhouse that's clearly better than them,
29:55
Speaker 2: You're not gonna get any value playing the US because
29:57
Speaker 2: all the books are US and there everybody know, everybody
30:02
Speaker 2: wants to bet on the US in the US, so
30:04
Speaker 2: you're not gonna get any value of betting the US.
30:07
Speaker 2: I wouldn't do it at any point throughout this group stage.
30:10
Speaker 2: At the very least, next game up will be a
30:14
Speaker 2: play for me. We're gonna this is a similar spot
30:23
Speaker 2: to that last one that I talked about, but I
30:25
Speaker 2: like this one a little bit better. We're gonna take
30:27
Speaker 2: Washington in the first five on the money line plus
30:30
Speaker 2: one oh five. Fading Tampa Bay Tampa Bay. I mean,
30:34
Speaker 2: they're a team that started out really hot. They haven't
30:37
Speaker 2: been playing well recently though. They've lost five of their
30:39
Speaker 2: last six, and I know a lot of times I
30:41
Speaker 2: will like to play on a team that looks bad
30:44
Speaker 2: recently because there's recency bias. And yes, they did just
30:47
Speaker 2: lose to the Dodgers, but that's part of the reason
30:50
Speaker 2: I want to fade them here, is because they lost
30:52
Speaker 2: every game against the Dodgers by one. Uh so, they
30:55
Speaker 2: played really tough against the Dodgers. That was a big
30:58
Speaker 2: series man almost being able to get a win against
31:01
Speaker 2: the Dogs. They could have won every game potentially against
31:04
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, and instead they lost everyone. I think that's
31:07
Speaker 2: brutal coming off a big series like that, you're returning
31:10
Speaker 2: home across the country. Both teams were off yesterday, by
31:14
Speaker 2: the way, so there's no rest advantage for one team
31:16
Speaker 2: over the other. But Tampa is gonna have to readjust
31:19
Speaker 2: to the Eastern time zone now coming back from the
31:21
Speaker 2: West Coast. Plus it's a return home spot on top
31:24
Speaker 2: of that, which I think is a negative because you
31:26
Speaker 2: got to get back to home life. You got stuff
31:28
Speaker 2: to do. Tampa Bay is. I know they're trying to
31:31
Speaker 2: win in the Al East and whatever, but there's a big,
31:34
Speaker 2: big gap between them and all the teams below them
31:37
Speaker 2: in the Al East, and I don't know how seriously
31:39
Speaker 2: they're gonna take Washington. You know, it's not exactly I
31:44
Speaker 2: don't think this is exactly a motivated spot for Tampa Bay,
31:47
Speaker 2: even if yes, they did just lose five of six
31:50
Speaker 2: on the road trip, but the fact that they lost
31:52
Speaker 2: twice to Anaheim is kind of an indictment really because
31:55
Speaker 2: Anaheim's a bad team, although I think they're worst on
31:58
Speaker 2: the road. Tampa Bay, Yeah, I do not like the
32:02
Speaker 2: spot for them returning home cross country, returning home from
32:05
Speaker 2: the road, They're gonna have stuff to do back at home.
32:07
Speaker 2: Washington is in a better travel spot here because Washington
32:10
Speaker 2: is starting a road trip and they're just coming in
32:13
Speaker 2: from Washington, so they're staying on the East coast here. Washington,
32:19
Speaker 2: they just lost some win a win streak. I know,
32:21
Speaker 2: they lost some four game win streak. Sometimes that will
32:23
Speaker 2: hang you over to the next game. But I think
32:24
Speaker 2: they just look right past Kansas City in their last game.
32:28
Speaker 2: They'd already won the series. I think they might have
32:29
Speaker 2: been looking ahead or something. So I think I'm gonna
32:32
Speaker 2: give Washington a pass for that. Also, Washington is very
32:36
Speaker 2: good on the road. For whatever reason, Washington is terrible
32:40
Speaker 2: at home, and they're really good on the road twenty
32:42
Speaker 2: three and fourteen. So you want to look to play
32:44
Speaker 2: Washington as a road team this year, at least as
32:47
Speaker 2: far as the season has gone so far. Yes, I
32:50
Speaker 2: know Tampa has been really good at home twenty four
32:52
Speaker 2: and nine. I get that. But Washington is a good
32:55
Speaker 2: road team, and we're looking at the spot here that
32:57
Speaker 2: lines up pretty well. We're gonna take the bullpen out
33:00
Speaker 2: because Washington's bullpen is totally untrustworthy. The ranked twenty fourth.
33:04
Speaker 2: I don't want anything to do with their bullpen. Tampa
33:07
Speaker 2: Bay's ranked eighteenth, and Tampa Bay's era is almost as
33:10
Speaker 2: bad as Washington's, but you can't say that you have
33:13
Speaker 2: an advantage with Washington's bullpen. So they're going out. We're
33:16
Speaker 2: gonna focus on just the starting pitching here, and we're
33:19
Speaker 2: gonna we're gonna plan Kid Cavali. Man, I actually think
33:23
Speaker 2: Cavally is kind of underrated. I don't think he's that bad. Uh,
33:26
Speaker 2: he's a young guy. He seems to be finally pitching
33:31
Speaker 2: h somewhat up to his potential recently, which hasn't happened
33:34
Speaker 2: throughout his career so far. Plus, I mean, look at
33:37
Speaker 2: this like handlebar stash that he's got. Man, do you
33:41
Speaker 2: not want to put money on that? I mean, come on,
33:44
Speaker 2: three point nine to eighty RRA one point three to
33:46
Speaker 2: nine whip I know is not good. His whip is
33:49
Speaker 2: too high. He's a little bit worse on the road
33:52
Speaker 2: four point two eight ROADIRA, but his splits are not
33:54
Speaker 2: very significant. But if you look at what he's done recently,
33:57
Speaker 2: he's been pretty consistent. At least he's been okay over
34:01
Speaker 2: the past. Really for the whole season, he's allowed four
34:04
Speaker 2: or fewer earned runs in every outing, But he has.
34:07
Speaker 2: He's been going deeper into games recently. He's gone at
34:10
Speaker 2: least five innings in every start going all the way
34:13
Speaker 2: back to early May, and he's still allowed He's allowed
34:16
Speaker 2: more than three earned runs only once in that span,
34:19
Speaker 2: so he is pitching fairly well right now. He's coming
34:23
Speaker 2: off a decent start at home against Seattle. Thirteen to
34:27
Speaker 2: four strikeout walk ratio this month is not exactly excellent,
34:30
Speaker 2: but it's not bad really his overall numbers here. His
34:35
Speaker 2: hit rate is still too high, so that's one thing
34:38
Speaker 2: he's got to kind of fix. He's probably putting too
34:40
Speaker 2: many pitches over the plate. That's a little bit of
34:43
Speaker 2: an issue. But his walk rate is not horrible and
34:46
Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is actually good, so he has strikeout stuff.
34:50
Speaker 2: So I like that. Like he actually does have good stuff.
34:52
Speaker 2: He has the ability to fool major league hitters with
34:55
Speaker 2: a strikeout rate like that, and he induces a lot
34:57
Speaker 2: of ground balls, so that's pretty good. So I do
35:00
Speaker 2: think he's under the radar. I think he's better than
35:03
Speaker 2: people think that he is, even though I don't like
35:04
Speaker 2: his whip and Tampa Bay really hasn't seen much of him.
35:09
Speaker 2: They only have two hitters who have faced him Mesa
35:12
Speaker 2: and Mullins and the only hit is a double for Mesa.
35:15
Speaker 2: They're one for six combined with three strikeouts and no
35:18
Speaker 2: walks against him. So they have unfamiliarity here, which is
35:21
Speaker 2: an advantage to the pitcher usually because the offense is
35:24
Speaker 2: gonna have to figure him out, and the offense, you know,
35:27
Speaker 2: might be a little bit thrown off by the return
35:29
Speaker 2: home spot and whatever. So I like Cavali to actually
35:31
Speaker 2: pitch well here. And Tampa Bay is going with a
35:34
Speaker 2: bullpen game because they're going with Griffin Jacks. He's got
35:37
Speaker 2: pretty similar numbers to Kavali and that he's got a
35:39
Speaker 2: three point six eighty RA one point three to six whip,
35:43
Speaker 2: which is too high. The problem with him is he's
35:46
Speaker 2: an older pitcher and he's basically a relief pitcher, so
35:48
Speaker 2: he's not this like younger like prospect like Cavali pretty
35:53
Speaker 2: much is Jacks. I mean, he is pitching deeper into games.
35:56
Speaker 2: I'll give him that. He's basically made some full starts recently.
35:59
Speaker 2: He's allowed no runs across his last ten innings. I
36:03
Speaker 2: get that those are both on the road, interestingly enough,
36:06
Speaker 2: and yes, he does have a good strike up walk
36:08
Speaker 2: ratio this month actually fairly similar numbers to Cavali this month.
36:13
Speaker 2: But Jacks, I just don't trust him, man, because most
36:15
Speaker 2: of his numbers are coming out of the bullpen. He's
36:18
Speaker 2: got an alright hit rate and alright walk rate and
36:20
Speaker 2: all right strike got raid pretty mediocre stuff here. He
36:23
Speaker 2: does induce some ground balls, which is good Jacks. By
36:27
Speaker 2: the way, I forgot to point out he is worse
36:28
Speaker 2: at home. He has more significant splits. He has a
36:31
Speaker 2: four point eighty six homey RA, and those two good
36:34
Speaker 2: starts that he threw recently were both on the road.
36:37
Speaker 2: So I think we could fade him here. There's a
36:39
Speaker 2: possibility he doesn't go all five innings here, even though
36:43
Speaker 2: he did the last two games. They're limiting him to
36:45
Speaker 2: sixty something pitches basically, so he was as efficient as
36:50
Speaker 2: he could have been basically to get through those five
36:52
Speaker 2: innings there. I don't know if his efficiency is gonna
36:54
Speaker 2: be that good here. Washington does have some history against him.
36:58
Speaker 2: They have ten at bats across five hitters, and they
37:01
Speaker 2: have succeeded against them in that small sample three hundred
37:04
Speaker 2: batting average eight sixty four ops four to one strike
37:08
Speaker 2: out walk ratio. So Washington has at least done some
37:11
Speaker 2: damage against him in a very small sample. Not much
37:13
Speaker 2: you can take away from that sample size, But I
37:16
Speaker 2: like the spot. I like the pitching matchup here. Washington
37:20
Speaker 2: will be a play here. Where is the where are
37:24
Speaker 2: we looking here? It's interleague? Yeah, So the money looks
37:26
Speaker 2: like it agrees with me on this. You're getting Washington
37:28
Speaker 2: as an underdog if you play them in the first
37:30
Speaker 2: five or the full game, although it's a smaller underdog
37:33
Speaker 2: price on the first five because the odds makers know
37:36
Speaker 2: that Washington has their bigger advantage in the first five.
37:39
Speaker 2: But you can still get them at plus money in
37:42
Speaker 2: the first five. So that's what we're gonna do. Sixty
37:44
Speaker 2: eight percent of tickets on Tampa Bay, fifty nine percent
37:47
Speaker 2: of the cash on Washington, so the money is back
37:49
Speaker 2: in Washington. Here. The totals low at eight, so the
37:53
Speaker 2: odds makers are actually kind of expecting the offense is
37:56
Speaker 2: to be a little bit weak here. But the other
37:57
Speaker 2: good thing about Washington is I said they're good on
38:00
Speaker 2: the road, but their offense is actually way better on
38:03
Speaker 2: the road. So that's good. And I don't know if
38:05
Speaker 2: I mentioned it. Did I mention it? Washington does have
38:07
Speaker 2: the better offense. In general, they have the fifth ranked offense,
38:11
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is sixteenth, and Washington's offense is way better
38:15
Speaker 2: on the road than it is at home, so there
38:17
Speaker 2: is all that coming into play here. So yes, Washington
38:21
Speaker 2: will be the play. The money for what it's worth
38:25
Speaker 2: is hitting the over in that game, but I don't
38:27
Speaker 2: really have a good feel for that. But Washington will
38:30
Speaker 2: be my side that I have here. It was a
38:34
Speaker 2: free bet where you had to play a side in
38:36
Speaker 2: that game. That's some bullshit. I mean, the value is
38:41
Speaker 2: probably with Australia there, but I don't want I wouldn't
38:44
Speaker 2: want either team though US is the better team. Australia
38:48
Speaker 2: is not very good, but both teams are off of overperforming,
38:52
Speaker 2: so I don't know. I don't think I want any
38:53
Speaker 2: of that. Oh it's Turkey against Paraguay. No, I don't.
38:58
Speaker 2: I don't like that. I think Turkey wins that. I
39:01
Speaker 2: do not agree with Paraguay there there. Turkey is the
39:04
Speaker 2: better I think, yeah, I think Turkey is better and
39:08
Speaker 2: Turkey their first loss was total bullshit. There's no way
39:12
Speaker 2: they should have lost Australia and if you look at
39:14
Speaker 2: the stats, they played way better Turky. I don't buy
39:18
Speaker 2: this pressure thing. Like Turkey, they need to win, like
39:23
Speaker 2: I mean, I know, I guess Paraguay needs to win
39:25
Speaker 2: to it. Paraguay is not a good team. Turkey is
39:28
Speaker 2: definitely the better team, and they're gonna be focused coming
39:30
Speaker 2: off an ugly, ugly loss to a team that they
39:33
Speaker 2: clearly should have beaten. So yeah, I don't like that one.
39:36
Speaker 2: I don't I like Turkey. All right, it's Thanksgiving, man,
39:42
Speaker 2: Milwaukee at Atlanta. This is gonna be a good series
39:45
Speaker 2: over the weekend here, possibly the best. But because of
39:48
Speaker 2: Atlanta getting postponed yesterday, that means Martin Perez is getting
39:52
Speaker 2: the start here today and he was gonna pitch yesterday,
39:55
Speaker 2: so now we get a much less enticing pitching matchup.
39:59
Speaker 2: It was gonna be Mizierowski against Chris Sale, and now
40:02
Speaker 2: it's Mizierowski against Perez, and I guess Sale is gonna
40:06
Speaker 2: pitch tomorrow. Whatever, man, I mean, it would have been
40:11
Speaker 2: an awesome pitching matchup with the young guy against the
40:14
Speaker 2: old veteran who were both still dominating, you know what
40:18
Speaker 2: I mean, or both dominating this year. Whatever. Atlanta was
40:21
Speaker 2: off yesterday because they got rained out They're staying at home.
40:24
Speaker 2: They've lost three games in a row. This is a
40:26
Speaker 2: good spot for Atlanta to have a break, you know
40:28
Speaker 2: what I mean, just get a rest, forget about it,
40:31
Speaker 2: try to break that losing momentum. So the situational spot
40:35
Speaker 2: I think does help Atlanta a little bit. Milwaukee is
40:38
Speaker 2: coming in from Cleveland and they or sorry, coming in
40:40
Speaker 2: from home. Excuse me, they just lost to Cleveland yesterday.
40:45
Speaker 2: I like Cleveland in the game yesterday. It's just the Cleveland.
40:48
Speaker 2: Their offense is questionable, but their pitching was good enough
40:50
Speaker 2: to get them to win. Parker Messek, So Milwaukee's coming
40:54
Speaker 2: off with that, I think Milwaukee was overlooking Cleveland too,
40:57
Speaker 2: So I almost put Cleveland on my card yesterday. I
41:00
Speaker 2: mentioned that on the show. Milwaukee's starting a road trip
41:03
Speaker 2: here now, though, which is a positive spot. Usually your
41:06
Speaker 2: focus to start the road trip. You know, Milwaukee will
41:09
Speaker 2: show up focus for a game against Atlanta, and I
41:12
Speaker 2: don't necessarily want to fade Mizierowski usually I do not Atlanta,
41:17
Speaker 2: though they rested their bullpen yesterday, Milwaukee used four guys
41:21
Speaker 2: out of their bullpen, so Milwaukee is at a little
41:25
Speaker 2: bit of a bullpen disadvantage here. Both bullpens are good.
41:28
Speaker 2: Atlanta's number one by a significant gap in both whip
41:33
Speaker 2: and ray. They're pitching at any elite level out of
41:37
Speaker 2: the bullpen there. Milwaukee is ranked fourteenth, but their bullpen,
41:41
Speaker 2: the array is better than that. I think Milwaukee is
41:43
Speaker 2: like close to a top ten bullpen, but the Braves
41:46
Speaker 2: have the edge there. Braves number six in offense, Milwaukee
41:50
Speaker 2: tied in seventh. So these are offenses that both can hit.
41:53
Speaker 2: Atlanta not quite as good at home, though, and they
41:55
Speaker 2: have to go up against Mizerowski, like I said, who
41:58
Speaker 2: was absolutely shredding everybody right now. He's got a one
42:02
Speaker 2: point three four RA point seven to four whip. He's
42:05
Speaker 2: probably the best pitcher in baseball right now. I'm assuming
42:09
Speaker 2: he's the favorite to win the nlside young as well.
42:11
Speaker 2: He's got a one point one roady RA. His strikeout
42:16
Speaker 2: rate is absolutely absurd. He's coming off a nine inning,
42:19
Speaker 2: a complete game, shutout one hitter against Philly with fifteen
42:23
Speaker 2: strikeouts and no walks, and he still didn't even throw
42:26
Speaker 2: a hundred pitches in that game. Absolutely ridiculous stuff. Now,
42:30
Speaker 2: does that mean he's gonna be in a letdown spot
42:32
Speaker 2: after that maybe because that start was so good, but
42:36
Speaker 2: he's pitching excellent anyway. Regardless. He's allowed one run since
42:41
Speaker 2: the beginning of May. One run in whatever this is
42:46
Speaker 2: in fifty four innings pitch, I think is what?
42:48
Speaker 1: That is?
42:49
Speaker 2: Absolutely insane. He's got the highest strikeout rate in baseball.
42:53
Speaker 2: He's what is the strikeout rate per nine innings? It's like,
42:57
Speaker 2: I don't even I can't do the math, you know,
42:59
Speaker 2: just that quickly in my head like that, But what
43:01
Speaker 2: is it? That's like thirteen strikeouts per nine innings or
43:04
Speaker 2: something like that is what he's doing. Absolutely ridiculous. Extremely
43:08
Speaker 2: low hit rate too. His walk rate's not really that
43:11
Speaker 2: high either. All of his numbers are really good. He'll
43:14
Speaker 2: be going up against Atlanta. Atlanta has also never faced
43:18
Speaker 2: him before, so Mizierowski has a little bit of an
43:20
Speaker 2: advantage there too. And then Atlanta has to figure him
43:23
Speaker 2: out on the fly because they haven't faced him before.
43:26
Speaker 2: So do I think he's gonna pitch poorly?
43:28
Speaker 4: No?
43:28
Speaker 2: I don't. Martine Perez is going for the Braves, the
43:33
Speaker 2: old man here who does not have strikeout stuff. But
43:36
Speaker 2: Perez has had any effective season so far. Two point
43:40
Speaker 2: ninety ra one point zero five whip Those are good numbers,
43:43
Speaker 2: good at home, one point six to seven Homy Ray,
43:47
Speaker 2: can he actually duel Mizierowski here? I don't know. I'm
43:51
Speaker 2: not so sure about that. Perez, he's been good throughout
43:54
Speaker 2: the season, but of course he's an old guy. He's
43:57
Speaker 2: kind of a junk pitcher. He doesn't fool guys a
44:00
Speaker 2: few hits though, because he's just he's locating his pitch
44:03
Speaker 2: as well, and guys are hitting it to soft contact.
44:05
Speaker 2: That's what he's doing. He's allowed very few hits. His
44:07
Speaker 2: walk rate is not great, and his strikeout rate is
44:10
Speaker 2: pretty low against Milwaukee. What are we looking at here?
44:17
Speaker 2: His numbers are not good against Milwaukee's seventy seven at
44:20
Speaker 2: bats two ninety nine average allowed nine to sixty two ops,
44:24
Speaker 2: fourteen to eight strikeout walk ratio. So I do not
44:27
Speaker 2: love Perez here. Milwaukee does have an edge as far
44:32
Speaker 2: as the pitching here, a pretty big starting pitching edge.
44:35
Speaker 2: But Atlanta does have a rest advantage and a travel
44:37
Speaker 2: advantage and a bullpen advantage. So what do we do
44:41
Speaker 2: with this game? I don't know, man, I'm staying off
44:43
Speaker 2: of it. Milwaukee is a public side. Eighty six percent
44:46
Speaker 2: of the tickets eighty five percent of the cash on them. Obviously,
44:50
Speaker 2: everybody knows how good Miss is at this point, You're
44:53
Speaker 2: you're having a lay of price for that. You're laying
44:55
Speaker 2: minus one sixty something, which is kind of crazy to
44:59
Speaker 2: lay a price like that with any team on the
45:01
Speaker 2: road against the Braves, and the Braves have one of
45:03
Speaker 2: the best records in baseball, and you're getting them as
45:06
Speaker 2: that heavy of an underdog price at home. You will
45:09
Speaker 2: not see the Braves that heavy of an underdog at
45:12
Speaker 2: home ever again, probably this season or whenever. So from
45:17
Speaker 2: a value perspective, it does make sense to maybe take
45:21
Speaker 2: a shot with the Braves here. The total is low
45:23
Speaker 2: at seven and a half, so the oddsmakers are respecting
45:25
Speaker 2: not a lot of runs here, so the Braves might
45:28
Speaker 2: be hanging around in the game and if it's close,
45:30
Speaker 2: maybe they can get the game late. I would not
45:35
Speaker 2: want to bank on it, though Milwaukee does clearly have
45:38
Speaker 2: a starting pitching edge here and even that might be
45:42
Speaker 2: enough to get them to win here. So I don't
45:44
Speaker 2: really want to do it, but yes, I think there
45:46
Speaker 2: is there probably is value in the number, at least
45:48
Speaker 2: looking towards Atlanta. Here the money is also backing the
45:51
Speaker 2: over fifty two percent ticket seventy three percent of the
45:54
Speaker 2: couch on the over. I don't know if I love that.
45:57
Speaker 2: I mean, the total is low for a reason. Of course,
46:00
Speaker 2: Perez does have better matchup numbers. Excuse me, Perez has
46:04
Speaker 2: worse matchup numbers, and I don't fully trust him, you know.
46:11
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not a game I want to get involved,
46:13
Speaker 2: and the value is on the Atlanta side. I would
46:15
Speaker 2: say in that game, as weird as that sounds, and yeah,
46:19
Speaker 2: that's basically what I have to say about at the total,
46:20
Speaker 2: I would still lean under in that game. Most things
46:24
Speaker 2: line up more towards the under. There, like two good bullpens,
46:28
Speaker 2: although Milwaukee's is not totally rested. One good starter and
46:31
Speaker 2: one starter who is pitching pretty well, and you know
46:36
Speaker 2: in one of the bullpens is completely rested. So I
46:38
Speaker 2: don't know. That's what I think about the game. Miziouskie.
46:43
Speaker 2: There are gonna be some spots to potentially fade him this.
46:46
Speaker 2: I mean, this might be one of those spots because
46:48
Speaker 2: he's coming off one of his best outings of his career,
46:51
Speaker 2: a complete game, one hitter. I mean, that's the first
46:54
Speaker 2: time he's done that, I'm pretty sure. So when you
46:57
Speaker 2: do that, you know, maybe there is a little bit
46:59
Speaker 2: of a letdown compone into it. Although he probably gets
47:01
Speaker 2: up for this game, I think he would be more
47:02
Speaker 2: pumped to pitch against Chris Sale, though, like, I don't
47:05
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be as excited to pitch against Martin Perez.
47:09
Speaker 2: Next game up is my last play of the day.
47:11
Speaker 2: So these plays, it's just what it is. Man. The
47:14
Speaker 2: last couple of days I had late plays. Today I
47:16
Speaker 2: do not, really, I don't have anything in the later games.
47:24
Speaker 2: You already know what this is because I told you
47:26
Speaker 2: this is a total and it's a game in Texas,
47:29
Speaker 2: so obviously this is an under. San Diego and Texas.
47:32
Speaker 2: I looked at this matchup and I'm just like, San
47:35
Speaker 2: Diego and Texas, this looks like it's gonna be a
47:37
Speaker 2: very underconducive series. You have two week offenses. Texas is
47:42
Speaker 2: the most under conducive ballpark. You know, Texas doesn't allow
47:46
Speaker 2: many runs here, they don't score many runs here. Neither
47:50
Speaker 2: offense scores many runs. Both teams have really good bullpens.
47:54
Speaker 2: So I'm like, yeah, this game, like this series looks
47:57
Speaker 2: like an under. But of course I had to gauge
47:58
Speaker 2: this specific game as far as whether or not it's
48:01
Speaker 2: an under, and I say that it is. I found
48:04
Speaker 2: the seven and a half at the book that starts
48:06
Speaker 2: with a B that is also a gym. I don't
48:10
Speaker 2: know if you can find a number that's quite that
48:11
Speaker 2: good out there, but I had to pay, yeah, minus
48:14
Speaker 2: one twenty one for it. I would still go under
48:17
Speaker 2: seven with this probably though all the seven and a
48:19
Speaker 2: half is better, so I'd be looking for the seven
48:21
Speaker 2: and a half, even upwards of like minus one twenty
48:24
Speaker 2: five maybe to try to get that hook on the seven.
48:27
Speaker 2: But I would still probably go under seven here. Uh
48:30
Speaker 2: seven being the key number, though at least if it
48:32
Speaker 2: lands exactly seven, it'll push for you if you do
48:35
Speaker 2: it that way. Texas did play yesterday, so they don't
48:38
Speaker 2: have arrested bullpen here, but they got blown out. They
48:42
Speaker 2: did really badly in that series against Minnesota. Speaking of unders,
48:46
Speaker 2: Minnesota was hitting against Texas, but I think it's unlikely
48:50
Speaker 2: that San Diego is gonna be able to do the
48:51
Speaker 2: same here, and Texas did not score in that series.
48:55
Speaker 2: Texas scored seven total runs in three games in that series,
48:59
Speaker 2: so that part of the equation still looks good for
49:01
Speaker 2: an under here could be a bounced back spot for Texas.
49:04
Speaker 2: I mean, you don't want to get swept at home.
49:07
Speaker 2: Texas is a better team than that, but their offense
49:09
Speaker 2: is not the reason why they're a decent team. It's
49:13
Speaker 2: their pitching. They're pitching is what makes them decent. Texas
49:17
Speaker 2: used four relief pitchers yesterday, but it was a blowout,
49:20
Speaker 2: so they're better. Relievers are mostly still available here, so
49:26
Speaker 2: Texas still has some of their high leverage arms available
49:29
Speaker 2: and San Diego rested yesterday, so San Diego has their
49:34
Speaker 2: full bullpen available here. San Diego just won against Saint Louis.
49:37
Speaker 2: They're traveling in from Saint Louis not a horrible travel
49:40
Speaker 2: spot for them, but it is the third game, third
49:44
Speaker 2: series of their road trip here, so a pretty extended
49:47
Speaker 2: road trip for San Diego where maybe the offense is
49:50
Speaker 2: getting a little bit tired here, you know whatever, Although,
49:55
Speaker 2: like I said, with the day off, the offense can
49:57
Speaker 2: cool off a little bit too, but their offense hasn't
49:59
Speaker 2: been good anyway. San Diego again, they didn't use anybody
50:02
Speaker 2: yesterday because they're resting. San Diego's bullpen is basically elite.
50:06
Speaker 2: They have the second best bullpen the RA even though
50:09
Speaker 2: they rank seventh and whipth, they're one of the best bullpens.
50:12
Speaker 2: Texas is ranked eighth in bullpen. They're one of the
50:14
Speaker 2: better bullpens as well, So we have two good bullpens here.
50:18
Speaker 2: Offenses are not good. Texas is number twenty four, they're
50:22
Speaker 2: worse than that at home. They're one of the absolute
50:24
Speaker 2: worst at home and San Diego's thirtieth, dead last in offense,
50:29
Speaker 2: so they have not come around either. And the starting pitching,
50:33
Speaker 2: we have one really trustworthy starting pitcher and one starting
50:37
Speaker 2: pitcher who the advanced analytics guys keeps saying is gonna
50:40
Speaker 2: fall off, Randy Vasquez. But I think this is a
50:43
Speaker 2: good matchup that he gets to draw here in this one,
50:46
Speaker 2: so I think he will pitch okay enough here. I
50:48
Speaker 2: know we played on him a few times and maybe
50:50
Speaker 2: gotten a little bit lucky in some of those cases,
50:53
Speaker 2: and I think we lost at least one of them.
50:55
Speaker 2: But I don't think he's that bad. He's got a
50:58
Speaker 2: three point six to three ERA. His whip is too high.
51:01
Speaker 2: I'll give you that. One point three to two whip
51:03
Speaker 2: not great, but he is way better on the road.
51:05
Speaker 2: I don't know why, because San Diego has one of
51:08
Speaker 2: the most pitcher friendly parks that there is, But he
51:11
Speaker 2: has a two point oh eight roady Ira E Ray
51:14
Speaker 2: almost five at home. I'm not gonna question it as
51:17
Speaker 2: far as this is concerned. Right now, he's better on
51:19
Speaker 2: the road, so I think it's a good matchup for
51:22
Speaker 2: him for that reason. He's gonna pitch on the road
51:24
Speaker 2: where he's better and it is a pitcher friendly park. Vazquez,
51:28
Speaker 2: I mean, he's been okay recently, but he is still
51:30
Speaker 2: walking too many guys. He is putting too many guys
51:33
Speaker 2: on base. He's given up too many hits recently, but
51:35
Speaker 2: most of that was in one home start against the Mets,
51:38
Speaker 2: So if you take that game out of the equation,
51:40
Speaker 2: his numbers and his two roads starts this month look
51:43
Speaker 2: a little bit better. Five inning out, He's against Baltimore
51:46
Speaker 2: and Philly, holding each of them to turn runs, and
51:49
Speaker 2: he had to combine eight to three strike out walk
51:52
Speaker 2: ratio in those ten innings. That's not horrible. So he
51:55
Speaker 2: is better on the road. He's been better in his
51:58
Speaker 2: recent road starts as well. Overall numbers, his hit rates
52:02
Speaker 2: not great. I mean, I know his walk rates not
52:05
Speaker 2: great either. Really strike out rate is low, so I
52:07
Speaker 2: know those numbers don't look great here, but he's in
52:10
Speaker 2: the better of his home road splits. He's not a
52:12
Speaker 2: terrible pitcher, and Texas has not succeeded against him. Texas
52:16
Speaker 2: has twenty six at bats against him, three strikeouts, two walks,
52:21
Speaker 2: one fifteen batting average, four forty eight oh ps sol
52:25
Speaker 2: though two of their three hits are extra base hits,
52:27
Speaker 2: but that's a double from Berger and that's his only
52:31
Speaker 2: hit in five at bats. And Peterson has a home
52:33
Speaker 2: run off him, but only has two hits off him.
52:35
Speaker 2: So and those are in fact the only three hits
52:38
Speaker 2: that the entire Texas offense has against him. So Vazquez
52:42
Speaker 2: has good numbers against them. And he is the more
52:45
Speaker 2: worrisome part of this because I think we don't have
52:47
Speaker 2: to worry about Jacob de Grom uh backing him here
52:50
Speaker 2: at home. De Grom he's gonna be a Hall of Famer,
52:53
Speaker 2: but he's been good this year as well, three point
52:55
Speaker 2: one seventy ra point nine to nine whip and he's
52:58
Speaker 2: been really good at home one point six Homie I race.
53:01
Speaker 2: So he's in the way better home road split too,
53:03
Speaker 2: so we're getting the advantage of both pitchers home road
53:06
Speaker 2: splits here, which is good. De Grom has only allowed
53:09
Speaker 2: two runs this month. They were both on the road
53:11
Speaker 2: at Feenway Park, and he still pitched well in that game.
53:14
Speaker 2: The Red Sox wound up winning the game, but de
53:16
Speaker 2: Grom was pretty good in that game. He's got a
53:18
Speaker 2: nineteen to three strikeout walk racier this month and seventeen
53:22
Speaker 2: innings only thirteen hits allowed. Not bad stuff here overall
53:26
Speaker 2: numbers low hit rate, low walk rate, high strikeout rate.
53:29
Speaker 2: Everything looks good from him, except that he's he's a
53:32
Speaker 2: little bit fly ball heavy, but in this ballpark that's
53:37
Speaker 2: less of a concern, and as I showed you, he's
53:39
Speaker 2: been pitching really well at home. De Grom going up
53:43
Speaker 2: against San Diego shouldn't be an issue for him here.
53:47
Speaker 2: They don't really have a ton of guys that have
53:49
Speaker 2: faced him. Manny Machado is the guy that's faced him
53:52
Speaker 2: by far the most, and he's done okay against him
53:55
Speaker 2: six for twenty three, but their entire lineup is only
53:58
Speaker 2: eight for thirty eight, and the only have four guys
54:01
Speaker 2: who have faced him thirty eight at bats thirteen strikeouts,
54:04
Speaker 2: two walks. Even Machado has struck out a lot against
54:07
Speaker 2: him overall two to eleven average, five thirteen ops. Machado
54:12
Speaker 2: has been in the American League and that's why he
54:13
Speaker 2: has that much experience against him. But de Gram overall,
54:17
Speaker 2: he has done well against the four guys in this
54:19
Speaker 2: lineup that have faced him before, and the rest of
54:22
Speaker 2: the lineup has never even seen him before. So d
54:25
Speaker 2: Grom actually has a little bit of unfamiliarity against some
54:27
Speaker 2: of these San Diego hitters too. I think it lines
54:30
Speaker 2: up for him to pitch well. Here under is the
54:32
Speaker 2: play for me here in this game. It may not
54:36
Speaker 2: be the only under we're gonna play in this series,
54:38
Speaker 2: but it remains to be seen. I haven't looked at
54:39
Speaker 2: the pitching matchups yet in the other games in the series,
54:42
Speaker 2: but I like this. The money is a little bit
54:45
Speaker 2: backing slightly back in the over here eighty two percent
54:49
Speaker 2: of the tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on
54:51
Speaker 2: the over I don't know what to make of that.
54:54
Speaker 2: I don't love that, but it looks like it is
54:56
Speaker 2: maybe a public over although that doesn't really make sense
54:59
Speaker 2: to me. I don't think the public is running to
55:02
Speaker 2: the window to play this particular game over, you know
55:05
Speaker 2: what I mean, Like the public is going to be
55:06
Speaker 2: playing overs in the games that have the more public offenses,
55:10
Speaker 2: you know what I mean, The offenses they know are good.
55:12
Speaker 2: So I don't know about that. But the total seven,
55:14
Speaker 2: like I said, it's low for a reason here, So
55:17
Speaker 2: that's what we're doing under. I found a pretty good
55:20
Speaker 2: number out there on into that one book that might
55:22
Speaker 2: not even allow me to place bets anymore in some cases.
55:26
Speaker 2: There you go, what what are we talking about? Missierowski
55:33
Speaker 2: will not throw a no hitter. I'll pretty much guarantee
55:36
Speaker 2: that Green Mountain girl. What's up? You're from Vermont? I
55:40
Speaker 2: assume that means I do not work at Fenway. No,
55:43
Speaker 2: why do you recognize? Do I look like somebody? Do?
55:45
Speaker 2: I might look like somebody that works at Fenway A
55:47
Speaker 2: lot of people. I'm at Fenway occasionally because I go
55:51
Speaker 2: to Red Sox games and stuff in concerts. But no,
55:55
Speaker 2: I think you're probably thinking of somebody else. But thanks
55:57
Speaker 2: for checking out the show.
56:00
Speaker 3: It.
56:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, hopefully the Red Sox can stop sucking at some point.
56:06
Speaker 2: But no, one of my friends actually worked at Fenway.
56:09
Speaker 2: Back when I was in high school. I had a
56:11
Speaker 2: friend Pat who worked at Fenway, and I would I
56:14
Speaker 2: would go up to his concession stand. I knew where
56:16
Speaker 2: he worked. It was on the first base side kind of.
56:19
Speaker 2: I'd go up there and Pat, you know the drill
56:22
Speaker 2: free hot dog. Yeah, get to you know, get the
56:27
Speaker 2: connections there to get a free hot dog. When you
56:29
Speaker 2: go to a game, there you go. Sometimes you can
56:31
Speaker 2: get a free hot dog. Anyway, though, Like the last
56:32
Speaker 2: time I was at Fenway, I was out in the
56:35
Speaker 2: bleachers and one of the concession guys towards the end
56:37
Speaker 2: of the game was like, I'm not gonna be able
56:39
Speaker 2: to sell all the rest of these hot dogs, man,
56:41
Speaker 2: just take some. I was like, you don't have to
56:44
Speaker 2: ask me twice. All right, You're gonna be some free dogs,
56:48
Speaker 2: all right, Fenway Franks, man, I mean they're pretty decent,
56:51
Speaker 2: but they're like, what are they? They're like nine bucks now,
56:57
Speaker 2: probably maybe even more than that ten bucks. Erica's sweet.
57:01
Speaker 2: I don't know who Erica is. Uh. Oh, Brandon resembled me.
57:05
Speaker 2: I don't know who Brandon or Erica are, but shout
57:08
Speaker 2: out to all of them. I guess no, I mean, yeah,
57:13
Speaker 2: that was not me. But if Brandon looks like me,
57:16
Speaker 2: then that's unfortunate for him. I will say that this
57:22
Speaker 2: is a Red Sox hat. By the way, here you go,
57:25
Speaker 2: I have it backwards because we're in what's the word
57:29
Speaker 2: I'm looking for. We're in like s O S mode here,
57:32
Speaker 2: we're in May Day mode here with the Red Sox
57:36
Speaker 2: so the Jimmy Fun Clinic. Okay, well it's it's a
57:40
Speaker 2: good Yeah, it's a good cause. Uh yeah, working with
57:43
Speaker 2: the cancer children there. I have donated to the Jimmy
57:46
Speaker 2: Fun in the past. I had a Red Sox Jimmy
57:48
Speaker 2: Fund plate on my old vehicle, but I have not
57:51
Speaker 2: gotten a new one since I got my new vehicle,
57:54
Speaker 2: so I don't know. You can DM me if you want.
57:58
Speaker 2: Green Mountain Girl, we could chat if you want. But no,
58:01
Speaker 2: I haven't been to Fenway for a bit now. I
58:03
Speaker 2: think the last time I was there was probably for
58:06
Speaker 2: a concert. Maybe I don't know. I've been in and
58:08
Speaker 2: around that area though I'm around, but I've not gone
58:12
Speaker 2: to a Red Sox game this year, which is probably
58:14
Speaker 2: better for my health, although I usually get out to
58:17
Speaker 2: like one or two every year. You paid minus one
58:21
Speaker 2: forty five. Don't pay minus one forty five for the
58:24
Speaker 2: under seven and a half. Just go under seven. That
58:28
Speaker 2: is way too much of a price to do that.
58:31
Speaker 2: I would say the cutoff is like minus one twenty five.
58:34
Speaker 2: All right, Cleveland and Houston is the next game here.
58:37
Speaker 2: Houston is staying at home here. I believe they were
58:41
Speaker 2: off yesterday. They just won a series against Detroit, staying
58:45
Speaker 2: at home. Cleveland played yesterday, so they're at a rest disadvantage.
58:48
Speaker 2: They beat Milwaukee, so Cleveland a little bit of a
58:51
Speaker 2: disadvantage here, possible let down, I guess off of the
58:54
Speaker 2: Milwaukee win, Cleveland, remember they got a bunch of offensive
58:57
Speaker 2: injuries right now. Jose Ramirez has a broken hand, so
59:00
Speaker 2: I don't know when he's gonna be back. And Chase
59:03
Speaker 2: the lotter is out, and then on Hell Martinez I
59:06
Speaker 2: believe is his name. So those guys I think bat one,
59:09
Speaker 2: two and three in their order and they're all out
59:11
Speaker 2: and the bottom of Cleveland's order is not good. So
59:15
Speaker 2: this is not a good Cleveland offense here, especially with
59:18
Speaker 2: those guys out. Cleveland is a decent bullpen, but they
59:21
Speaker 2: used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. Well, Houston rested,
59:25
Speaker 2: so that kind of negates their bullpen edge. A little bit.
59:28
Speaker 2: Cleveland is still twelfth in bullpen. There's still the better
59:31
Speaker 2: bullpen here. Houston is up to twenty second though, so
59:34
Speaker 2: Houston is not one of the absolute worst bullpens anymore.
59:38
Speaker 2: They've been better recently, so I think the bullpens are
59:41
Speaker 2: a little bit close closely matched here. I think Cleveland
59:44
Speaker 2: still probably does have a slight edge in that department,
59:47
Speaker 2: though they certainly do not have the better offense though.
59:50
Speaker 2: Houston is tied in eleventh with the Giants. Although the
59:53
Speaker 2: Houston is better than the Giants and the bullpen or ECUSI,
59:58
Speaker 2: the hitting for Cleve is bad. They're at twenty seventh,
1:00:02
Speaker 2: tied with the Phillies. Currently, Cleveland does have the better
1:00:07
Speaker 2: starter pitching, though they have Tan or by be pitching.
1:00:09
Speaker 2: He's been good three point nine to six ERA, one
1:00:13
Speaker 2: point one to eight whip. Don't let his bad record
1:00:15
Speaker 2: fool you. This is why like weighing records as far
1:00:18
Speaker 2: as like who makes the All Star team and whatever,
1:00:21
Speaker 2: it's stupid because if you get no run support like Biby,
1:00:24
Speaker 2: you're pitching pretty well. Your team has a bad offense
1:00:27
Speaker 2: and gives you no run support, what can you do? Like,
1:00:30
Speaker 2: you don't really have that much control over what your
1:00:32
Speaker 2: record is. Biby hasn't been as good on the road
1:00:35
Speaker 2: though four point five to four roadyra He is pitching
1:00:38
Speaker 2: well recently, though he's allowed three or fewer earned runs
1:00:40
Speaker 2: and three straight outings. Uh. He's been better this month too.
1:00:45
Speaker 2: He's gone seven plus innings in both outings. He's only
1:00:47
Speaker 2: allowed five hits in fifteen innings here facing Texas and Detroit,
1:00:51
Speaker 2: though those are some weak offenses and the Red Sox
1:00:54
Speaker 2: prior to that eleven to four strike out walk ratio
1:00:58
Speaker 2: this month, so his strikeout rate is not really that
1:01:00
Speaker 2: good right now. On the course of the season. His
1:01:02
Speaker 2: strike gout rate is a little bit low for what
1:01:04
Speaker 2: you usually get out of him. His hit rate is good,
1:01:06
Speaker 2: though it's pretty low. Walk rate is fairly low as well.
1:01:09
Speaker 2: Home run rate is too high though he's allowed too
1:01:11
Speaker 2: many homers. But I don't know if that if we
1:01:15
Speaker 2: should weigh that that heavily here though, although Houston you
1:01:19
Speaker 2: know they don't have they don't exactly play in a
1:01:21
Speaker 2: pitcher friendly ballpark. Though Biby against Houston is not a
1:01:25
Speaker 2: very good number. Sixty eight at bats two seventy nine
1:01:27
Speaker 2: average eight forty nine oh ps allowed thirteen to four
1:01:31
Speaker 2: strike gout walk ratio. So I don't know if I
1:01:33
Speaker 2: would trust Biby here. It's one of those situations where
1:01:36
Speaker 2: they're conflicting factors here, Like he's in good form right now,
1:01:39
Speaker 2: but he faced weak offenses. He's worse on the road.
1:01:42
Speaker 2: He's not good against Houston, so I might lean more
1:01:46
Speaker 2: against Biby in this game. I think there are more
1:01:49
Speaker 2: negatives than positives here. Houston is going with Tatsuya Emi,
1:01:53
Speaker 2: who has not been good in his first season in
1:01:56
Speaker 2: the majors. Six point four to three ERA, one point
1:01:59
Speaker 2: five one whip. That is not gonna get it done.
1:02:02
Speaker 2: He's been bad at home seven point one to three
1:02:05
Speaker 2: home I RA that is not good at all. He
1:02:07
Speaker 2: got totally blown up last time out against Kansas City.
1:02:12
Speaker 2: Lasted two thirds of an inning, five runs allowed. That yeah,
1:02:16
Speaker 2: that's not gonna do it either. He was okay in
1:02:20
Speaker 2: a few starts prior to that though, so it looked
1:02:22
Speaker 2: like he was turning a corner and pitching better, and
1:02:24
Speaker 2: he faced a couple of good offenses in there, but man,
1:02:27
Speaker 2: he had a setback last time against Kansas City. They're
1:02:30
Speaker 2: not a good offense, although they do hit better at home.
1:02:34
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't know, man. I still don't trust Emi.
1:02:36
Speaker 2: But he does draw a weak offense here in Cleveland,
1:02:39
Speaker 2: and Cleveland has never faced him before, so he does
1:02:42
Speaker 2: have that advantage. They have to figure him out on
1:02:45
Speaker 2: the fly, and they're an injured offense too. I still
1:02:48
Speaker 2: don't I don't want to try to figure out this game.
1:02:51
Speaker 2: Though Cleveland has the money coming in towards them fifty
1:02:54
Speaker 2: to fifty on the tickets, ninety five percent of the
1:02:56
Speaker 2: cash on Cleveland. They're a slight underdogs. Twenty is the
1:03:00
Speaker 2: price on Houston, basically Houston. Yeah, I don't know, man.
1:03:06
Speaker 2: I mean, generally I would say Biby is the better
1:03:08
Speaker 2: starter here, but of course Cleveland has a rest disadvantage here.
1:03:12
Speaker 2: I think Cleveland does still have the better bullpen. You
1:03:15
Speaker 2: gotta try to weigh all the Biby's different numbers here.
1:03:18
Speaker 2: You gotta try to figure out what Emi is gonna
1:03:20
Speaker 2: do here. There's so much that could go in various
1:03:23
Speaker 2: ways in this game. This is a very unpredictable game.
1:03:26
Speaker 2: The totals at eight and a half and the money
1:03:28
Speaker 2: is backing the under for whatever that's worth in that game,
1:03:32
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, that's that game is definitely a
1:03:34
Speaker 2: stayaway though for me. Saint Louis at Kansas City on
1:03:38
Speaker 2: Apple TV. We had this game right yesterday with Kansas
1:03:42
Speaker 2: City in the first five. Kansas City won the full
1:03:44
Speaker 2: game as well, in a ridiculously high scoring game fourteen
1:03:48
Speaker 2: to six. I don't think this game is gonna be
1:03:50
Speaker 2: as high scoring as that, but Kansas City does score
1:03:53
Speaker 2: more at home. Like I said, the walls have been
1:03:55
Speaker 2: moved in in the stadium. Kansas City does not have
1:03:59
Speaker 2: a good bull They use only two guys out of
1:04:02
Speaker 2: the bullpen yesterday, though Saint Louis used three. Saint Louis
1:04:05
Speaker 2: does still have the better bullpen, though none of the
1:04:08
Speaker 2: better bullpen arms came into that game because it was
1:04:10
Speaker 2: a complete blowout. Saint Louis is ranked twentieth, which isn't
1:04:13
Speaker 2: exactly great. Kansas City is twenty eighth, and their metrics
1:04:17
Speaker 2: are worse basically all across the board there, so Saint
1:04:20
Speaker 2: Louis does have the better bullpen. Saint Louis is fourteenth
1:04:24
Speaker 2: in offense, Kansas City is all the way up to
1:04:27
Speaker 2: seventeenth just because they scored fourteen runs last night. They
1:04:31
Speaker 2: moved all the way up from like twenty third. I
1:04:33
Speaker 2: still don't think Kansas City is that good. These outliers
1:04:36
Speaker 2: early issued in the season moved these offenses all over
1:04:39
Speaker 2: the place in these standings, I think Saint Louis is
1:04:42
Speaker 2: still the better offense. Saint Louis may have a starting
1:04:45
Speaker 2: pitching edge too, with Michael McGreevy pitching. He's having a
1:04:49
Speaker 2: good season even though he's not a strikeout pitcher. He's
1:04:52
Speaker 2: got good numbers two point nine to ninety Ray, one
1:04:55
Speaker 2: point one to one Whip, not as good on the
1:04:57
Speaker 2: road three point seven to six Roady Ray, which still
1:04:59
Speaker 2: is isn't that bad though he's been pitching well for
1:05:03
Speaker 2: most of the season. Really he's allowed more than three
1:05:05
Speaker 2: or in runs and only one start this entire season,
1:05:08
Speaker 2: which was on the road against Milwaukee. Kansas City is
1:05:11
Speaker 2: not Milwaukee. Though he's allowed few hits here, low hit rate,
1:05:16
Speaker 2: pretty low walk rate here too. Strikeout rate is low
1:05:19
Speaker 2: though he doesn't strike guys out, like I said, so
1:05:22
Speaker 2: you can see that going two ways, right, Like, he
1:05:24
Speaker 2: doesn't have the ability to fool hitters because he doesn't
1:05:27
Speaker 2: strike guys out, but he is still pitching effectively, So
1:05:32
Speaker 2: that kind of means that he kind of gets overlooked
1:05:34
Speaker 2: in the betting market and stuff and overlooked by the public.
1:05:37
Speaker 2: So sometimes you do want to play on pitchers like this.
1:05:41
Speaker 2: Kansas City basically has never faced him. Only Starling Marte
1:05:44
Speaker 2: has ever faced him. He's zero for one against him,
1:05:47
Speaker 2: no strikeouts, no walks. The McGreevy has an unfamiliarity edge
1:05:51
Speaker 2: here against Kansas City as well. Kind of surprised they
1:05:53
Speaker 2: haven't seen him at all yet because these teams play
1:05:56
Speaker 2: each other like twice every year because their rivals geograph rivals.
1:06:01
Speaker 2: Seth Lugo is making his return for Kansas City. If
1:06:05
Speaker 2: you guys saw his last start, very scary scenario. He
1:06:09
Speaker 2: took a line drive off of his head in his
1:06:12
Speaker 2: previous game. It it did not look good. He went
1:06:16
Speaker 2: into concussion protocol, but he only went on the seven
1:06:19
Speaker 2: day injured list and he pitched nine days ago. That
1:06:22
Speaker 2: was on the tenth when that happened against Texas. He
1:06:24
Speaker 2: was pitching okay in that game before that happened. The
1:06:28
Speaker 2: question now is is he ready to go again or
1:06:32
Speaker 2: is he gonna be like scared, you know what I mean.
1:06:34
Speaker 2: You never really know how a pitcher's gonna react to that, like,
1:06:37
Speaker 2: is he gonna be a little bit more timid out there?
1:06:39
Speaker 2: I mean I kind of think that he won't be,
1:06:41
Speaker 2: because Lugo has been around forever. He's thirty six years old.
1:06:44
Speaker 2: You know, he's a very experienced pitcher. So I don't
1:06:47
Speaker 2: think he's gonna be intimidated going back out there. But
1:06:50
Speaker 2: you do have to worry just about his numbers in general,
1:06:53
Speaker 2: three point eight six era, one point three to five
1:06:55
Speaker 2: whip is not great. So the era is pretty good,
1:06:58
Speaker 2: the whip not really so much. He is off schedule
1:07:01
Speaker 2: now as well, and sometimes these pitchers don't do as
1:07:03
Speaker 2: well when they're off schedule. Lugo has not been as
1:07:06
Speaker 2: good at home either. Four point zero six HOMI race,
1:07:09
Speaker 2: so he's slightly worse at home, probably because they move
1:07:12
Speaker 2: the walls. And against Saint Louis he's not good. Although
1:07:17
Speaker 2: they only four hitters will faced him, but they're four
1:07:20
Speaker 2: for eight against him with some power in here double
1:07:23
Speaker 2: from burls In, a home run from Velasquez, one strikeout,
1:07:26
Speaker 2: no walks, five hundred average is what that is. Obviously,
1:07:29
Speaker 2: you can do that math fifteen hundred, batting fifteen hundred
1:07:32
Speaker 2: excuse a ops against very small sample. You don't want
1:07:37
Speaker 2: to read too much into that, but it doesn't look
1:07:40
Speaker 2: great for Lugo here. The team might rally around him though.
1:07:43
Speaker 2: That's the other thing, Like after that scary moment for
1:07:47
Speaker 2: Lugo in his previous start, now that he's back, like
1:07:50
Speaker 2: the team, you know, might rally around him, like you know,
1:07:52
Speaker 2: and try to like throw support behind him, you know
1:07:55
Speaker 2: what I mean, after something like that happened. So it
1:07:57
Speaker 2: might be a positive for him there. I don't want
1:08:00
Speaker 2: to play the game. I think I do lean to
1:08:01
Speaker 2: Saint Louis here, though, especially after they did get embarrassed yesterday.
1:08:06
Speaker 2: The money's totally disagreeing though. Sixty three percent of the
1:08:09
Speaker 2: tickets on Saint Louis ninety percent of the cash on
1:08:11
Speaker 2: Kansas City. I don't know what the deal is with that.
1:08:14
Speaker 2: Saint Louis is around minus one twenty here on the
1:08:17
Speaker 2: money line. O, their road favorite here could be in
1:08:20
Speaker 2: bounce back mode. Like I said, money is also playing
1:08:23
Speaker 2: the over here. I don't know if I see that.
1:08:26
Speaker 2: If you go over he should go full game with
1:08:28
Speaker 2: it though, and take advantage of the somewhat weak bullpens.
1:08:31
Speaker 2: Kansas City definitely weak bullpen totals at nine so it
1:08:35
Speaker 2: is fairly high. I think a first five under makes
1:08:39
Speaker 2: some sense in this game, though, based on what the
1:08:41
Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup is and given the situation and whatever.
1:08:44
Speaker 2: Wouldn't really want to risk it though on it. But
1:08:47
Speaker 2: I do think I lean towards Saint Louis. I think
1:08:49
Speaker 2: you have the better matchup members. I think McGreevy might
1:08:51
Speaker 2: be the better starter here as well, and I think
1:08:53
Speaker 2: you probably get a bullpen advantage with Saint Louis too,
1:08:56
Speaker 2: plus the bounce back. So I think that's the way
1:08:59
Speaker 2: I lean. All right, I'm gonna be right back, but
1:09:01
Speaker 2: I have no more plays to get out. I am
1:09:03
Speaker 2: going to break down all the rest of these games though,
1:09:06
Speaker 2: so I will be right back in a second. I
1:09:07
Speaker 2: apologize for all my post cold bullshit that's going on.
1:09:12
Speaker 2: You got to listen to all my snip bulls. Maybe
1:09:15
Speaker 2: maybe I'm on cocaine. That sounds cooler. I'll be right back,
1:10:43
Speaker 2: all right. Also for a Korean Mountain girl, that's Those
1:10:47
Speaker 2: are some nice digs there. The being in a suite
1:10:51
Speaker 2: for a game, that's pretty solid. I've been in those
1:10:55
Speaker 2: suites before. I know. I've definitely been in them for
1:10:57
Speaker 2: a couple of concerts. I think maybe for games as well.
1:11:00
Speaker 2: I don't know. I've been in and around and all over.
1:11:03
Speaker 2: I've been to a lot of events, all right. But
1:11:06
Speaker 2: the suits they have their own bar inside the suite,
1:11:09
Speaker 2: so you don't have to wait in line to get
1:11:11
Speaker 2: your alcohol. Although I'm a sober man now. Pittsburgh got
1:11:16
Speaker 2: Colorado this oh man, this series, I don't know, Man,
1:11:21
Speaker 2: Colorado's returning home from a road trip. So, as I
1:11:23
Speaker 2: always point out, that's a negative spot returning home from
1:11:26
Speaker 2: the road. They went to the A's and Chicago. They
1:11:29
Speaker 2: played the A's. I believe that was in Vegas. I
1:11:32
Speaker 2: want to say, either way, it's a return home spot.
1:11:36
Speaker 2: So negative spot team returning home after to get back
1:11:39
Speaker 2: to home life. Whatever. Not necessarily gonna overlook Pittsburgh though
1:11:42
Speaker 2: they're one of the better teams, Like they're one of
1:11:46
Speaker 2: the teams that's improved the most this year. Pittsburgh is
1:11:49
Speaker 2: coming off a couple of nice wins against the A's.
1:11:51
Speaker 2: Here we had to win in the last game in
1:11:54
Speaker 2: that series. Here on the show, Pittsburgh was off yesterday.
1:11:57
Speaker 2: Both teams are off yesterday, I believe so, yes, so
1:12:02
Speaker 2: the Bullpen's are rested. But these are not good bullpens.
1:12:05
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh number twenty one, Colorado atrocious, number twenty seven, almost
1:12:10
Speaker 2: tied for the worst cra here with the Twins. They
1:12:13
Speaker 2: are a bad bullpen. They're debatably the worst. So Pittsburgh
1:12:16
Speaker 2: does have the better bullpen, but I wouldn't trust either
1:12:19
Speaker 2: bullpen really, even though they are rested. Colorado is ninth
1:12:22
Speaker 2: in offense, but skewed I think a bit because of
1:12:26
Speaker 2: some offensive explosions recently. But they are playing a course
1:12:31
Speaker 2: field here. Pittsburgh is number four in offense, which is
1:12:34
Speaker 2: more of a legit number. There these pictures, you know,
1:12:39
Speaker 2: I don't know. It looks like there could be some
1:12:40
Speaker 2: runs here. Bubba Chandler's pitching for Pittsburgh. I just don't
1:12:44
Speaker 2: know what to think about him right now, because he
1:12:46
Speaker 2: has good stuff. Like you look at his underlying metrics.
1:12:49
Speaker 2: He's good. He's still young, but he's so wild. He
1:12:52
Speaker 2: hasn't been able to get that get his command like
1:12:56
Speaker 2: under control yet out of the I mean though all
1:12:58
Speaker 2: of those. Yeah, that's a very dundant statement. But whatever.
1:13:02
Speaker 2: Chandler four point seven to sixty ERA one point three
1:13:05
Speaker 2: to eight whip not great, better on the road four
1:13:08
Speaker 2: point three to eight road ra But now you have
1:13:09
Speaker 2: to gauge how is he gonna do in course Field?
1:13:13
Speaker 2: Did he pitch there last year? I guess it is
1:13:15
Speaker 2: one thing to answer. Let me see he did not.
1:13:17
Speaker 2: He pitched against Colorado at home once last year and
1:13:20
Speaker 2: he was good in that start. But whatever, Course Field,
1:13:26
Speaker 2: we don't have any any metrics for him yet. Now
1:13:28
Speaker 2: Chandler is pitching a little bit better in his recent
1:13:31
Speaker 2: starts here this month, sixteen to five strike out walk ratio,
1:13:35
Speaker 2: only ten hits allotted sixteen innings, so his walk rate
1:13:37
Speaker 2: has actually gone down recently. His strike out rate is decent,
1:13:41
Speaker 2: hit rate decent as well. Face Houston in Atlanta on
1:13:44
Speaker 2: the road in there, and those are good offenses. So
1:13:47
Speaker 2: he is pitching better recently. So he does seem to
1:13:50
Speaker 2: kind of be coming into form a little bit here.
1:13:53
Speaker 2: He's got a low hit rate on the season, pretty
1:13:55
Speaker 2: good strikeout rate right at nine per nine and forty
1:13:59
Speaker 2: one walks sixty eight innings. So that is the problem again,
1:14:02
Speaker 2: way too many walks. But again that number is gone
1:14:05
Speaker 2: down recently, so he is pitching a little bit better,
1:14:09
Speaker 2: and I think he has the ability to pitch really well.
1:14:13
Speaker 2: It's just still kind of a question mark. What is
1:14:15
Speaker 2: he gonna do in coursefield? Is the other thing? Is
1:14:17
Speaker 2: he a fly ball pitcher? Yes he is, so that
1:14:19
Speaker 2: doesn't play well in course field. He hasn't allowed that
1:14:22
Speaker 2: many home runs this year, but it's not great being
1:14:25
Speaker 2: a fly ball pitcher and having to go into cores.
1:14:29
Speaker 2: That's not great. Rockies though, they only have four at
1:14:32
Speaker 2: bats against him across four hitters, and they haven't done
1:14:34
Speaker 2: anything against him, no hits, no guys have reached base.
1:14:37
Speaker 2: It looks like no strikeouts and no walks. So Chandler
1:14:42
Speaker 2: might have a decent matchup here, but I don't like
1:14:44
Speaker 2: the location really and I still don't fully trust him
1:14:48
Speaker 2: right now. But he is starting to pitch better, so
1:14:50
Speaker 2: there is that, But there are just conflicting factors here
1:14:53
Speaker 2: with him. For Kyle Freeland pitching for the Rockies, it's
1:14:57
Speaker 2: mostly negative with him seven point nine one point seven
1:15:01
Speaker 2: whip These are bad numbers. Chandler is clearly the pitcher
1:15:05
Speaker 2: with way more upside here out of the two. Freeland
1:15:08
Speaker 2: is also way deeper into his career. Freeland is a
1:15:11
Speaker 2: little bit better at home seven point five homey ra
1:15:14
Speaker 2: still really bad. I don't know how he pitches worse
1:15:18
Speaker 2: on the road, but whatever, He's at decent command this month.
1:15:22
Speaker 2: Like he's not walking anybody, but he puts every pitch
1:15:25
Speaker 2: over the plate. It looks like like he just gives
1:15:27
Speaker 2: up way too many hits. Even though his walk rate
1:15:30
Speaker 2: is pretty low, his hit rate is insanely high. He's
1:15:33
Speaker 2: given up too many home runs as well, strike out
1:15:35
Speaker 2: rate low. He's more of a fly ball pitcher as well,
1:15:38
Speaker 2: so that doesn't play well in course field. Even though
1:15:41
Speaker 2: the Rockies have him on their team and have for
1:15:44
Speaker 2: a while, none of that looks very good here. I
1:15:46
Speaker 2: would not want to back Freeland. Highly unlikely that I
1:15:50
Speaker 2: ever will be in a situation where I do. His
1:15:53
Speaker 2: numbers against Pittsburgh, though, are actually pretty good in forty
1:15:56
Speaker 2: at bats. They have six guys who have faced him
1:15:58
Speaker 2: eight to two strike out walker ratio to twenty five average,
1:16:01
Speaker 2: seven to twelve ops. So his numbers against the Pirates
1:16:05
Speaker 2: are actually good. But do you really trust him here?
1:16:08
Speaker 2: I wouldn't. There is the potential that both pitchers do
1:16:13
Speaker 2: okay here, but I'd kind of lean against it. The
1:16:16
Speaker 2: total in this game is eleven and a half, I think,
1:16:19
Speaker 2: but of course it has to be somewhat high because
1:16:21
Speaker 2: it's course field. The money is pretty significantly backing the
1:16:25
Speaker 2: over fifty two percent of tickets, ninety three percent of
1:16:27
Speaker 2: the cash on the over. I don't really disagree with
1:16:32
Speaker 2: the over. It's just, you know, I think you have
1:16:35
Speaker 2: more things leaning towards an over than an under. You
1:16:38
Speaker 2: have Chandler, who's at least questionable. Freeland is bad. I
1:16:42
Speaker 2: don't really put that much weight into his matchup numbers. Really,
1:16:45
Speaker 2: both bullpens are bad, so I think there are more
1:16:47
Speaker 2: factors indicating on an over than an under here. And
1:16:50
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh is getting the money seventy nine percent of tickets,
1:16:53
Speaker 2: eighty six percent of the cash on them. They're in
1:16:55
Speaker 2: the minus one thirties up to minus one forty range. Basically,
1:17:00
Speaker 2: of course, you're gonna have to pay a price with
1:17:01
Speaker 2: anybody who's facing Colorado here. Uh you know, I mean,
1:17:06
Speaker 2: I probably agree Pittsburgh is the better team. Colorado's returning
1:17:10
Speaker 2: home from the road, so the spot helps Pittsburgh a
1:17:13
Speaker 2: little bit here. They should have the matchup edge throughout
1:17:16
Speaker 2: the game. I wouldn't want to bank on it, but
1:17:19
Speaker 2: I will agree with Pittsburgh slightly. Anaheim at the A's
1:17:23
Speaker 2: one thing I forgot to mention in that handicap yesterday.
1:17:25
Speaker 2: We won with the A's yesterday in the first five,
1:17:27
Speaker 2: as long as you did what I recommended, And I
1:17:29
Speaker 2: recommended picking Jump must start for the A's, but not
1:17:34
Speaker 2: picking Soriano must start because he was injured so it
1:17:38
Speaker 2: seemed like he might potentially not start a though it
1:17:40
Speaker 2: looked like he was going to. And I liked the
1:17:43
Speaker 2: handicap anyway, but with the Angels going with like a
1:17:46
Speaker 2: spot start or a bullpen game like that made it
1:17:49
Speaker 2: easier for the A's to get that win, and we
1:17:51
Speaker 2: were sitting on a good price there, so I liked that. Now,
1:17:55
Speaker 2: one thing I didn't mention though that I was about
1:17:56
Speaker 2: to say, Anaheim gives up a lot of runs on
1:17:59
Speaker 2: the road, dude. As a team Anaheim, I did mention
1:18:03
Speaker 2: the road record is bad, but they are not a
1:18:05
Speaker 2: good team to back on the road, except that Soriano
1:18:08
Speaker 2: is better on the road generally. But I countered that
1:18:11
Speaker 2: with my handicap yesterday because I thought he was gonna
1:18:14
Speaker 2: pitch yesterday. Now, as far as the bullpens, these are
1:18:17
Speaker 2: both unbackable bullpens. The A's did use only two guys
1:18:20
Speaker 2: out of their bullpen yesterday, and so did Anaheim. But
1:18:23
Speaker 2: these are not good bullpens. Anaheim is twenty six, the
1:18:26
Speaker 2: A's twenty third. Nothing good about this. The A's ERA
1:18:30
Speaker 2: is actually worseled. I think they're probably the slightly better
1:18:34
Speaker 2: bullpend but they're both bad. The A's are a good offense.
1:18:37
Speaker 2: They're ranked third right now. Anaheim's seventeenth, tied with the Royals.
1:18:42
Speaker 2: I think both of them might be a little bit
1:18:44
Speaker 2: overrated at seventeenth, though. I mean I pointed out the
1:18:48
Speaker 2: Royals only up there because they scored a ton of
1:18:50
Speaker 2: runs yesterday. Now, Jose Soriano's pitching, I talked about him yesterday.
1:18:55
Speaker 2: He's got a two point seven to nine ERA, one
1:18:57
Speaker 2: point two to three whip good numbers, sure, and he's
1:19:00
Speaker 2: good on the road two point three to two road.
1:19:03
Speaker 2: He was better on the road last year as well.
1:19:05
Speaker 2: So you do want to back him when he's on
1:19:07
Speaker 2: the road. But I don't think you want to back
1:19:08
Speaker 2: him in the A's stadium. As I pointed out, he
1:19:11
Speaker 2: pitched in this stadium twice last year. The most recent
1:19:15
Speaker 2: time was in August. He got pretty lit up in
1:19:17
Speaker 2: that one, gave up eight five earned runs on eight hits,
1:19:20
Speaker 2: excuse me in five and two thirds, gave up three
1:19:24
Speaker 2: home runs in the game, had a five to one
1:19:26
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio was just the only good thing
1:19:28
Speaker 2: about it. And then the previous time he played in
1:19:30
Speaker 2: the stadium was in May last year, and he did
1:19:34
Speaker 2: hold him to three earned runs at six innings on
1:19:36
Speaker 2: six hits, but he walked four guys along with four strikeouts,
1:19:39
Speaker 2: so he was inducing a lot of ground balls, so
1:19:42
Speaker 2: that's good. He is a ground ball pitcher, so that
1:19:44
Speaker 2: does help him in the stadium. But his overall numbers
1:19:47
Speaker 2: in the stadium are not good. And as I showed
1:19:50
Speaker 2: you yesterday and i'll show you again in a second,
1:19:51
Speaker 2: his numbers are not good against the A's either. Now,
1:19:55
Speaker 2: his overall ground ball rate is good. He's more of
1:19:58
Speaker 2: a ground ball pitcher, so that does hell in the stadium.
1:20:01
Speaker 2: Like I said, he doesn't allow that many hits. His
1:20:03
Speaker 2: walk rate is way too high though this season, and
1:20:06
Speaker 2: his strike out rate is good. His walk rate has
1:20:09
Speaker 2: gone up again and he's got a fourteen to eleven
1:20:11
Speaker 2: strike out walk ratio this month. That's not good. Even
1:20:14
Speaker 2: though his most recent start was a five in he
1:20:16
Speaker 2: shut out against Tampa, He's not exactly in the greatest
1:20:19
Speaker 2: form right now, and these were points that I made yesterday.
1:20:23
Speaker 2: And he's not good against the A's and ninety four
1:20:25
Speaker 2: at bats to seventy seven average A looted of eight
1:20:28
Speaker 2: thirty six o ps, twenty five to ten strike out
1:20:31
Speaker 2: walk ratio. None of those numbers are very good. Too
1:20:34
Speaker 2: many walks there too, So I do not like Soriano here.
1:20:37
Speaker 2: Jeffrey Springs is pitching for the A's. Springs hasn't really
1:20:41
Speaker 2: been that good either. He did have decent numbers this
1:20:44
Speaker 2: season for a while. I think he's better than his
1:20:46
Speaker 2: numbers suggests, but he does struggle in this stadium. Five
1:20:50
Speaker 2: point one to three ERA, one point three to two
1:20:52
Speaker 2: whip not very good, bad at home, Like I said,
1:20:55
Speaker 2: five point seven to six ERA. In the stadium, he's
1:20:58
Speaker 2: an extreme flyball and he's allowed a ton of home runs.
1:21:02
Speaker 2: So that is a huge problem. You can't pitch like
1:21:04
Speaker 2: that in this stadium, man, So he does not line
1:21:07
Speaker 2: up to pitch well in the stadium. He's got kind
1:21:09
Speaker 2: of a high hit rate this season too. His walk
1:21:11
Speaker 2: rate isn't too high, but the rest of these numbers
1:21:13
Speaker 2: are ugly. His strike cut rate is low as well,
1:21:16
Speaker 2: he's been really bad this month and eray of over
1:21:19
Speaker 2: ten this month. He's allowed almost two hits per inning
1:21:24
Speaker 2: this month. That is just not gonna cut it. That
1:21:27
Speaker 2: is awful with two home starts as well. Eleven to
1:21:30
Speaker 2: three strike up walk ratio is good, but he's obviously
1:21:33
Speaker 2: just way too hit aable. He's also allowed seven home
1:21:35
Speaker 2: runs this month in those three starts. That is really bad.
1:21:40
Speaker 2: It's almost approaching one home run allowed in inning. And
1:21:43
Speaker 2: his numbers against Anaheim are not good either. In twenty
1:21:46
Speaker 2: six at bast three, forty six average allowed, oney, twenty
1:21:49
Speaker 2: four oh ps, seven to one strike up walk ratio
1:21:52
Speaker 2: is the only good thing about these numbers. Anaheim does
1:21:55
Speaker 2: only have six guys who have faced him, but those
1:21:57
Speaker 2: are not good numbers. It looks like an over to
1:22:01
Speaker 2: me in this game. This hasn't. This is probably one
1:22:04
Speaker 2: of the ones that I like a little bit better
1:22:05
Speaker 2: than the rest. I don't think I really want to
1:22:08
Speaker 2: do it, but I like the over Here. If this
1:22:11
Speaker 2: live odds hover thing would go away, we could actually
1:22:13
Speaker 2: see what this looks like here. That's not what I
1:22:16
Speaker 2: wanted to do. No, the money is actually backing the No,
1:22:20
Speaker 2: it is backing the over. It looks like we have
1:22:21
Speaker 2: sixty four percent of tickets on the under and fifty
1:22:26
Speaker 2: three percent of the cash on the under. Totals at ten.
1:22:29
Speaker 2: It's kind of a reasonable total for this game. Really.
1:22:32
Speaker 2: Money is also backing Anaheim, which somewhat makes sense because
1:22:35
Speaker 2: Soriano is the better home road splits. He is the
1:22:38
Speaker 2: better pitcher, but I think both bullpens both pitchers. This
1:22:42
Speaker 2: lines up to be an over. Seventy six percent of
1:22:45
Speaker 2: tickets are on the a's seventy eight percent of the
1:22:47
Speaker 2: cash on Anaheim. This one, I'm I'm considering adding it.
1:22:51
Speaker 2: Man hold on, because I was fading Soriano yesterday with
1:22:55
Speaker 2: a play and it just didn't actually happen. Let me
1:22:58
Speaker 2: look at what this looks like here, I'm looking on
1:23:01
Speaker 2: Action Network here. Yeah, the money, according to them, does
1:23:06
Speaker 2: look like it's back in the over. Let me see. Yeah,
1:23:14
Speaker 2: it looks like it's mostly tens across the board. One
1:23:18
Speaker 2: book does have a nine and a half at minus
1:23:20
Speaker 2: one twenty five, but you don't get that key number
1:23:23
Speaker 2: of nine though you still have to play over the
1:23:24
Speaker 2: key number of nine, so there's not a huge difference
1:23:26
Speaker 2: between nine and a half and ten. Should we do it.
1:23:32
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I'm I'm back and forth on
1:23:35
Speaker 2: this one. Yeah, you know what, let's do it. Whatever,
1:23:40
Speaker 2: Let's add another play here. We'll have four plays today
1:23:43
Speaker 2: on a Friday, a Friday four some here or no
1:23:47
Speaker 2: three plays? Sorry, three plays. I don't have. I don't
1:23:49
Speaker 2: have anything in the other sports today. All right, we'll
1:23:52
Speaker 2: do LAA and the A's over ten. I found it
1:23:56
Speaker 2: a minus one oh five out there. Hang on, yeah, whatever,
1:24:00
Speaker 2: let's do it. Let's go over in that game, all right,
1:24:06
Speaker 2: even though yesterday's game went under. Actually, so maybe that'll
1:24:09
Speaker 2: lot help. Maybe the A's, maybe Anaheim will break out
1:24:13
Speaker 2: their bats finally, you know, it's it's it's not the
1:24:17
Speaker 2: or excuse the maybe the Angels. Excuse me the Angels.
1:24:20
Speaker 2: It's not really the Angels offense that I'm that worried
1:24:24
Speaker 2: about here. I think they will get some runs in
1:24:26
Speaker 2: this game. And what I'm more, Anaheim's pitching is bad
1:24:30
Speaker 2: on the road, so that does help us here, although
1:24:33
Speaker 2: I know Soriano generally isn't all right. Minnesota at Arizona
1:24:36
Speaker 2: on Apple TV. This episode is taking way too long,
1:24:40
Speaker 2: but we don't have too much w NBA and whatever.
1:24:43
Speaker 2: Arizona just won their series against Anaheim. They're staying at home,
1:24:47
Speaker 2: they had yesterday off and Minnesota is traveling and played yesterday,
1:24:52
Speaker 2: so Minnesota has a rest and travel disadvantage here, so
1:24:56
Speaker 2: that's not great for Minnesota. And they're coming off a
1:24:58
Speaker 2: sweep of Texas. They won four games in a row,
1:25:01
Speaker 2: only traveling from Texas to Arizona though, which isn't really
1:25:04
Speaker 2: too bad. Minnesota does have a bad bullpen though, and
1:25:07
Speaker 2: they use five guys out of the bullpen yesterday while
1:25:10
Speaker 2: Arizona arrested, so Arizona has a clear bullpen advantage here
1:25:14
Speaker 2: the rank fifth and bullpen even though still I continue
1:25:17
Speaker 2: to say their era is not really that good, but
1:25:19
Speaker 2: they're definitely better than Minnesota as the worst bullpen e
1:25:23
Speaker 2: ray and the rank second to last and whip they
1:25:25
Speaker 2: might be the worst bullpen so big bullpen advantage to
1:25:30
Speaker 2: Arizona here. Hitting wise, Minnesota's been the better team the
1:25:33
Speaker 2: rank thirteen. Arizona's all the way down at twenty sixth,
1:25:37
Speaker 2: so Minnesota does have that advantage, but it looks like
1:25:39
Speaker 2: most other advantages go to Arizona here. Minnesota's going with
1:25:43
Speaker 2: Connor pre Lip. He's hard to predict, dude, because he
1:25:46
Speaker 2: is young and he does have some talent and some
1:25:48
Speaker 2: strikeout ability, but he's had some issues recently, and he's
1:25:51
Speaker 2: got a five point two six ERA and one point
1:25:54
Speaker 2: three to five whip, which isn't great. He's been really
1:25:57
Speaker 2: bad on the road seven point twenty seven road that's
1:26:01
Speaker 2: not good. But he's pitched a little bit better again recently,
1:26:04
Speaker 2: although he failed to go five innings in one of
1:26:06
Speaker 2: these starts here against Kansas City, but I don't know
1:26:08
Speaker 2: what happened in that start. It looks like it was shortened.
1:26:11
Speaker 2: He didn't go as full amount of pitches there, so
1:26:13
Speaker 2: I don't know what that really was. But he does
1:26:15
Speaker 2: have a sixteen to five strike out walk race here
1:26:18
Speaker 2: this month, which is not bad in sixteen or third inning.
1:26:21
Speaker 2: So his command looks pretty good right now. But he's
1:26:23
Speaker 2: allowed seventeen hits, so he's been a little bit hittable here.
1:26:26
Speaker 2: Over the course of the season, he hasn't been too hittable.
1:26:29
Speaker 2: His walk rate is the one huge problem here. His
1:26:32
Speaker 2: strike got rate is good, it's high, but the walk
1:26:34
Speaker 2: rate is high, and that's his main issue. But again
1:26:37
Speaker 2: it's gotten a little bit better again recently. So Prelip
1:26:40
Speaker 2: is pitching a little bit better again recently, and Arizona,
1:26:43
Speaker 2: as you're gonna know, they have never faced him before.
1:26:46
Speaker 2: So prelip does have a little bit of an advantage here,
1:26:49
Speaker 2: and that Arizona's never faced him before. So I don't
1:26:52
Speaker 2: really necessarily want to fade him here. But I think
1:26:56
Speaker 2: Michael saka Garrett wherever you are, he is the better
1:26:59
Speaker 2: pitcher in this matchup. He's pitching for Arizona here. He's
1:27:02
Speaker 2: having a good season. Three point one to one ERA,
1:27:04
Speaker 2: one point seven whip, two point h nine home ERA,
1:27:08
Speaker 2: so he's been really good at home. He's been good
1:27:10
Speaker 2: recently too. Nineteen to three strikeout walk ration. You're only
1:27:13
Speaker 2: eleven hits allowed in twenty innings this month. That's all
1:27:17
Speaker 2: really good. He's allowed more than two earned runs only
1:27:19
Speaker 2: three times this season, more than four only once in
1:27:22
Speaker 2: a start where he got blown up at Milwaukee. He's
1:27:26
Speaker 2: been quite good for most of the season. Though his
1:27:29
Speaker 2: strikeout rate is alright, it's like right around nine per nine.
1:27:33
Speaker 2: He's got a low walk rate and a low hit rate,
1:27:35
Speaker 2: so his numbers are good on the season. Does he
1:27:38
Speaker 2: do well against Minnesota hold on? The answer to that
1:27:43
Speaker 2: is yes, although they only have seventeen at bats against them.
1:27:46
Speaker 2: Six hitters have faced him. One extra base hit a
1:27:49
Speaker 2: double from Buckston. They have five strikeouts, no walks, two
1:27:52
Speaker 2: thirty five average five to twenty nine ohps. So I
1:27:56
Speaker 2: think so Raka does have the edge here, but you
1:27:58
Speaker 2: are paying for it. So I think there's a situational
1:28:01
Speaker 2: edge here. There's a rest edge, travel edge, plus the
1:28:04
Speaker 2: better starting pitcher on the mountain, plus the bullpen edge
1:28:07
Speaker 2: for Arizona. So they do have a lot of things
1:28:09
Speaker 2: going for them here. So I lean Arizona in this game.
1:28:14
Speaker 2: Money seems to slightly agree, but they are very public,
1:28:18
Speaker 2: which worries me a little bit too. Eighty percent of tickets,
1:28:20
Speaker 2: eighty one percent of the cash on Arizona. You're gonna
1:28:23
Speaker 2: have to like make your own minus one run line
1:28:25
Speaker 2: on this if you want to play Arizona. That is
1:28:28
Speaker 2: probably the way I would play this game, if I
1:28:29
Speaker 2: was gonna do it. They're around the minus one sixty
1:28:32
Speaker 2: something money line range here. I would make my own
1:28:35
Speaker 2: minus one run line if I was gonna do that,
1:28:38
Speaker 2: I don't quite want to do it. I mean, pre
1:28:39
Speaker 2: Lip is a wildcard. He could potentially pitch well here.
1:28:42
Speaker 2: A first five Undermkes some sense here, the money is
1:28:45
Speaker 2: hitting the over in the full game pretty strongly. Eight
1:28:48
Speaker 2: and a half is the total there. But both pitchers
1:28:51
Speaker 2: might actually do okay here, so there might be less
1:28:54
Speaker 2: scoring at the beginning of the game. But I would
1:28:57
Speaker 2: not want to trust Minnesota's bullpen Baltimore at the Dodgers.
1:29:02
Speaker 2: I believe the Dodgers have a rest advantage. I think
1:29:04
Speaker 2: the Dodgers didn't play yesterday, well, Baltimore did. The Dodgers
1:29:08
Speaker 2: are staying at home too, so the Dodgers have a
1:29:10
Speaker 2: pretty big advantage here in the scheduling. Baltimore is having
1:29:15
Speaker 2: to travel from Seattle, so I thought they're having to
1:29:18
Speaker 2: travel across the country. That would be ridiculous, But no,
1:29:20
Speaker 2: they're not. They're already on the Pacific coast. They're in Seattle,
1:29:23
Speaker 2: that's right. But Baltimore did play yesterday, so the Dodgers
1:29:26
Speaker 2: do have a rest edge. Baltimore is still having to
1:29:28
Speaker 2: travel down from Seattle, but they are already adjusted to
1:29:32
Speaker 2: the time zone. Here, still an advantage for the Dodgers.
1:29:35
Speaker 2: They are the better team too, and the better bullpen.
1:29:39
Speaker 2: Baltimore only is one guy out of the bullpen, though,
1:29:41
Speaker 2: so Baltimore has had really light bullpen usage recently, so
1:29:45
Speaker 2: that will help their bullpen a little bit. Dodgers are
1:29:47
Speaker 2: still ranked sixth in bullpen though, although the ray is
1:29:50
Speaker 2: a little bit worse than that, but there's still a
1:29:52
Speaker 2: decent bullpen. Baltimore's is worse at sixteenth, when the ray
1:29:56
Speaker 2: kind of indicates this should be a little bit ranked
1:29:58
Speaker 2: worse than that or ranked a little bit worse than that.
1:30:01
Speaker 2: Dodgers are still the number one offense. Baltimore is fifteenth,
1:30:06
Speaker 2: so the Dodgers do have advantages in those departments. And
1:30:09
Speaker 2: I think they have this starting pitching edge too, so
1:30:11
Speaker 2: I think the Dodgers have the edge in every phase
1:30:14
Speaker 2: of this game. The problem is the price. You know
1:30:16
Speaker 2: you're gonna have to pay a big price on the Dodgers.
1:30:19
Speaker 2: Baltimore is going with Trey Gibson, who's a very young pitcher.
1:30:23
Speaker 2: I think we still don't really know who he is.
1:30:25
Speaker 2: He's got bad numbers though, five point nine to one
1:30:27
Speaker 2: ERA one point five to nine whip his whip and
1:30:31
Speaker 2: ra or anagrams of each other. He's only been slightly
1:30:35
Speaker 2: better on the road, but not by mush his era
1:30:38
Speaker 2: pretty close both home and away. He walked five guys
1:30:42
Speaker 2: in his last out and even gets san Diego and
1:30:44
Speaker 2: give up six six runs to them. That is not
1:30:47
Speaker 2: a good sign. San Diego not a good offense. I
1:30:49
Speaker 2: don't trust Gibson at all right now. He's only made
1:30:52
Speaker 2: one road start. He was at the Yankees, which is
1:30:54
Speaker 2: not an easy draw. But he didn't pitch well there either.
1:30:57
Speaker 2: His numbers overall are bad. He's got more walks than strikeouts.
1:31:01
Speaker 2: That's not gonna do you any favors. Though. He does
1:31:04
Speaker 2: have a lot of ground balls, but that also kind
1:31:06
Speaker 2: of masks how bad you are in a lot of cases.
1:31:09
Speaker 2: And he's got a hit ry that's right around one
1:31:11
Speaker 2: per inning. Strike got rate is low. Not a lot
1:31:14
Speaker 2: of good here from Gibson. I mean, it doesn't look
1:31:16
Speaker 2: to me like he's a very good pitcher. He does
1:31:19
Speaker 2: have an unfamiliarity advantage here, if you want to call
1:31:22
Speaker 2: it that, because the Dodgers have never faced him, so
1:31:24
Speaker 2: there is that. I guess. I don't think that's gonna
1:31:28
Speaker 2: be enough help for him, though. I don't think he's
1:31:30
Speaker 2: gonna pitch well here. Dodgers are going with Roki Sasaki,
1:31:33
Speaker 2: who is pitching better as a starter. Now, he's kind
1:31:36
Speaker 2: of figured some stuff out, but his overall numbers still
1:31:38
Speaker 2: don't look great. Four point seven to six e RA
1:31:41
Speaker 2: one point three to three win. But he is good
1:31:43
Speaker 2: at home three point two toy six homey Ray. They
1:31:47
Speaker 2: converted him to a starter, and he was pitching well
1:31:50
Speaker 2: as a starter for like over a month, but then
1:31:52
Speaker 2: he got completely blown up at the White Sox. They
1:31:56
Speaker 2: were a good offense. But here's the thing. Sasaki seems
1:32:00
Speaker 2: like he doesn't have a lot of mental toughness. So
1:32:04
Speaker 2: having a bad start after he was cruising for a while,
1:32:06
Speaker 2: is that gonna hang him over into this next game?
1:32:09
Speaker 2: A guy like him, it could, you know what I mean,
1:32:10
Speaker 2: Like that bad start could put him on tilt, so
1:32:13
Speaker 2: I do worry about that. But he was pitching quite
1:32:16
Speaker 2: well before then. He is pitching well at home, so
1:32:19
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's tough. I could see it going
1:32:21
Speaker 2: both ways with Sasak here. The Orioles only have one
1:32:25
Speaker 2: guy who's never faced him. Tavaris is over too often
1:32:29
Speaker 2: with no strikeouts and no walks. I lean a little
1:32:32
Speaker 2: bit more towards Sasaki is still doing okay here, but
1:32:35
Speaker 2: I don't know, man, I mean, it's definitely a risk.
1:32:37
Speaker 2: The money is fading the Dodgers here, they have ninety
1:32:40
Speaker 2: four percent of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on them.
1:32:43
Speaker 2: Part of it is because laying minus two hundred is
1:32:45
Speaker 2: just ridiculous, So you know, I think part of that
1:32:49
Speaker 2: is just the price. I think some of the professional
1:32:51
Speaker 2: betters probably just see value in the number alone on Baltimore.
1:32:55
Speaker 2: Here money is also slightly tilted towards the over here
1:33:00
Speaker 2: nine and a half uh Dodgers, by the way, minus
1:33:04
Speaker 2: two hundred, Like I said, as the price on them.
1:33:06
Speaker 2: You know what, I think, if you're gonna play this game,
1:33:07
Speaker 2: I think Dodgers over their team total makes the most
1:33:10
Speaker 2: sense here, even though I know they were off yesterday
1:33:12
Speaker 2: so that can cool off the hitting a little bit,
1:33:14
Speaker 2: and they're actually a little bit better on the road hitting.
1:33:17
Speaker 2: But I think the Dodgers might be able to get
1:33:18
Speaker 2: some runs here. You'll probably need to score like six
1:33:21
Speaker 2: runs though, if you want to do that, but I
1:33:23
Speaker 2: think they could do it against a very very shaky
1:33:26
Speaker 2: young starter plus Baltimore's bullpen. And then you take the
1:33:30
Speaker 2: question mark of Sosak just out of the equation. That
1:33:33
Speaker 2: might be a game where it does make sense to
1:33:35
Speaker 2: do something like that. And then the late game is
1:33:37
Speaker 2: the Red Sox at Seattle. This is what I was
1:33:40
Speaker 2: thinking of. The Red Sox didn't have yesterday off and
1:33:43
Speaker 2: they have to travel cross country with no time off.
1:33:46
Speaker 2: Come on, man, I mean usually when you start a
1:33:49
Speaker 2: road trip, you're gonna be focused. Especially getting away from
1:33:53
Speaker 2: home might be a good thing. Because you're playing badly
1:33:55
Speaker 2: at home. One good thing for you is to go
1:33:57
Speaker 2: out on the road. And by the way, the Red
1:33:59
Speaker 2: Sox are a better road team this year. They've been
1:34:01
Speaker 2: hitting better on the road. They're almost five hundred on
1:34:04
Speaker 2: the road. I don't know how they're so miserable at home,
1:34:07
Speaker 2: but the Red Sox are better on the road. The
1:34:09
Speaker 2: problem is they have to adjust to this time zone
1:34:12
Speaker 2: with no time off and play this late night game.
1:34:14
Speaker 2: You know, I talk about how difficult that is for
1:34:16
Speaker 2: an East Coast team to go out west first game.
1:34:19
Speaker 2: It messes with your biological clock. So I don't think
1:34:22
Speaker 2: that's good. Plus Seattle is the better team here too,
1:34:25
Speaker 2: so I don't love that all though. Seattle did play
1:34:28
Speaker 2: yesterday as well, but they stay at home for this,
1:34:31
Speaker 2: so the Red Sox are at a pretty big travel
1:34:33
Speaker 2: disadvantage here. Red Sox used two guys out of the
1:34:36
Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday. They did use Chapman, but a lot of
1:34:39
Speaker 2: times they have him going multiple days in a row,
1:34:41
Speaker 2: and he hadn't pitched for a while, so he might
1:34:43
Speaker 2: be still available. Red Sox do have a good bullpen.
1:34:46
Speaker 2: That's one good thing they have going for them, because
1:34:48
Speaker 2: there aren't many. Seattle has a good bullpen as well,
1:34:51
Speaker 2: but they did use some of their better relievers in
1:34:53
Speaker 2: a save situation yesterday. Red Sox are ranked third and bullpen.
1:34:58
Speaker 2: I think they might have the third best ERA as well.
1:35:00
Speaker 2: They're a good bullpen. Seattle is a pretty good bullpen too,
1:35:04
Speaker 2: they ranked fifteenth, but the ERA is better than that.
1:35:07
Speaker 2: I think the Red Sox just have a very slight bullpen.
1:35:09
Speaker 2: As both bullpens are good. Red Sox are terrible offensively
1:35:13
Speaker 2: twenty fifth, although they are better on the road. Seattle
1:35:17
Speaker 2: seventeenth in offense, so they're a little bit better than that.
1:35:21
Speaker 2: Red Sox not being good offensively at home makes even
1:35:23
Speaker 2: less sense given that it's a hit or friendly park typically.
1:35:27
Speaker 2: I don't know what the deal is there. Starting pitching
1:35:29
Speaker 2: two starters who have done well this year pitching in
1:35:32
Speaker 2: this game. Ron your Suarez is pitching for the Red
1:35:35
Speaker 2: Sox three point two to one ERA, one point one
1:35:37
Speaker 2: to seven went pretty good numbers there. Good on the
1:35:40
Speaker 2: road two point six to five road ERA, so he's
1:35:43
Speaker 2: been better on the road. He's been pretty good this month.
1:35:46
Speaker 2: He's allowed two or fewer in runs and both starts
1:35:48
Speaker 2: did well against the Yankees on the road earlier this month.
1:35:52
Speaker 2: He's got a thirteen to two strike out walk razio
1:35:54
Speaker 2: this month pitching well. Strike Out rates have been pretty
1:35:57
Speaker 2: high over his last three starts. Strike gout rate is
1:36:00
Speaker 2: nine per nine right now, which is pretty solid low
1:36:03
Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is a little bit high,
1:36:05
Speaker 2: but his overall numbers look pretty good here. However, he
1:36:09
Speaker 2: doesn't do well against Seattle. I was actually surprised Seattle
1:36:12
Speaker 2: has this much experience against him because he's mostly been
1:36:15
Speaker 2: in the National League. He's got fifty at bats against him.
1:36:18
Speaker 2: He does have a fourteen to zero strikeout walk ratio
1:36:21
Speaker 2: against him. That is good. He's had good command against him,
1:36:24
Speaker 2: but they have really teed off on him though. They
1:36:26
Speaker 2: have a three forty average against him in eight to
1:36:28
Speaker 2: ninety three ops, so they've done a lot of damage
1:36:31
Speaker 2: to him. He's been way too hittable against him. Even
1:36:33
Speaker 2: though he has really good command numbers. So I don't
1:36:36
Speaker 2: know what to think about Suarez' numbers here. Meanwhile, Seattle's
1:36:40
Speaker 2: going with Bryce Miller. Miller has been good this season.
1:36:43
Speaker 2: He came back from injury, so he came back a
1:36:45
Speaker 2: little bit late in the season, I think. But he's
1:36:48
Speaker 2: been good for pretty much the entire time. One point
1:36:51
Speaker 2: five to four ERA, point seven to one whip zero
1:36:54
Speaker 2: ERA at home so far, small sample size, but still
1:36:58
Speaker 2: he's been excellent at home. He's been good this month
1:37:01
Speaker 2: two with a sixteen to two strikeout walk ration, only
1:37:04
Speaker 2: two runs allowed in fourteen inning. He's only five hits allowed.
1:37:08
Speaker 2: He's been dealing, he's been really good. Red Sox are
1:37:11
Speaker 2: not a good offense. Miller's got a low hit rate,
1:37:13
Speaker 2: low walk rate, really low actually in a pretty high
1:37:17
Speaker 2: strikeout rate on the season. All good numbers here and
1:37:20
Speaker 2: against the Red Sox. He's got good numbers as well,
1:37:22
Speaker 2: or no, excuse me, he doesn't. I thought he had
1:37:24
Speaker 2: good numbers against the Red Sox. He actually doesn't. In
1:37:27
Speaker 2: twenty four at bats two ninety two batting average allowed
1:37:30
Speaker 2: nine to twelve OPS. So both pitchers, they're good pitchers,
1:37:33
Speaker 2: and they're in good format now, but they both have
1:37:35
Speaker 2: bad matchup numbers. Red Sox have had only six guys
1:37:39
Speaker 2: to have faced him though four to three strike out
1:37:41
Speaker 2: walk ratio. But yeah, two ninety two average, nine to
1:37:44
Speaker 2: twelve ops allowed. That's not good. So this is a
1:37:48
Speaker 2: game I'm passing on. On the surface, it looks like
1:37:50
Speaker 2: a pretty clear under in the game. But I don't
1:37:53
Speaker 2: think you want to do that because these pitchers have
1:37:56
Speaker 2: bad matchup numbers. Total is at six and a half
1:37:59
Speaker 2: and when the odds put it's total that low, they're
1:38:02
Speaker 2: telling you they think it's gonna be a pitching duel here,
1:38:05
Speaker 2: and like, on the surface, yes, it looks like it
1:38:07
Speaker 2: should be, but there's no leeway there. You're below that
1:38:10
Speaker 2: key number seven. The money is playing the over sixty
1:38:13
Speaker 2: percent of tickets, ninety two percent of the cash and
1:38:15
Speaker 2: the over. I think I would do that too. I
1:38:18
Speaker 2: think the over might be the way to lean there,
1:38:20
Speaker 2: although usually I do not want to look at an
1:38:22
Speaker 2: over in a game where the total is low because
1:38:24
Speaker 2: it's low for a reason. The money is also packing
1:38:27
Speaker 2: the Red Sox. I don't think I would do that.
1:38:30
Speaker 2: Seventy two percent of tickets, fifty eight percent of the
1:38:32
Speaker 2: cash on Seattle. Seattle's around minus one twenty something. Seattle's
1:38:36
Speaker 2: the better team, and the Red Sox having to shift
1:38:38
Speaker 2: time zones like this, it's gonna be difficult for them,
1:38:42
Speaker 2: even though, Yeah, both pitchers have bad matchup numbers, so
1:38:45
Speaker 2: it's hard to gauge. Probably slightly lean into Seattle, but
1:38:48
Speaker 2: I think an over might make more sense there. All right,
1:38:52
Speaker 2: let's go to WNBA here. We're out of cup play
1:38:55
Speaker 2: right now. I don't know when cup play is gonna resume,
1:38:57
Speaker 2: but whatever. We have three games here. Toronto at Connecticut
1:39:01
Speaker 2: is the first game up. This is the game where
1:39:02
Speaker 2: I think some of the angles make the most sense.
1:39:05
Speaker 2: You can go to this game for five bucks. By
1:39:07
Speaker 2: the way, go down to Mohegan Sun, Connecticut. They're on
1:39:11
Speaker 2: a huge losing streak. They suck the lost six in
1:39:14
Speaker 2: a row. They're the worst team in the league. They
1:39:16
Speaker 2: played Toronto during that win streak, and by the way,
1:39:19
Speaker 2: it was in Toronto, and Connecticut was an eight and
1:39:22
Speaker 2: a half point underdog in that game, which, by the way,
1:39:26
Speaker 2: that means that Toronto should be more heavily favored than
1:39:28
Speaker 2: this year. Toronto's minus one and a half here on
1:39:31
Speaker 2: the road. But these teams don't get much for home
1:39:34
Speaker 2: court in the WNBA, and Toronto is eight and a
1:39:36
Speaker 2: half at home and they're now only one and a
1:39:39
Speaker 2: half on the road. That doesn't make any sense. They
1:39:41
Speaker 2: should probably be about a three and a half point
1:39:43
Speaker 2: road favorite here, unless there's an injury or something. So
1:39:46
Speaker 2: I think there is actually line value on Toronto here,
1:39:48
Speaker 2: And as I'm gonna point out in a second, I
1:39:50
Speaker 2: actually might lean that way a little bit. If you
1:39:53
Speaker 2: look at what happened in this matchup. Toronto is not
1:39:55
Speaker 2: gonna take Connecticut for granted, because Connecticut just went into
1:39:59
Speaker 2: Toronto during Cup play and took them to overtime, you
1:40:03
Speaker 2: know what I mean. Like Connecticut had a big lead.
1:40:05
Speaker 2: They had a double digit halftime lead in that game.
1:40:08
Speaker 2: So Toronto got a big scare. And you know, I
1:40:10
Speaker 2: like when the better team gets a big scare. I
1:40:13
Speaker 2: like them to refocus and zigzag in the next game,
1:40:16
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So I do like Toronto
1:40:18
Speaker 2: in this game. And the money is agreeing seventy one
1:40:21
Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on Toronto,
1:40:24
Speaker 2: they're around minus one and a half. I think it's
1:40:26
Speaker 2: a pretty cheap price to lay with them, So I
1:40:28
Speaker 2: like Toronto here on the spread or the money line.
1:40:31
Speaker 2: Money line, Now, if you start looking at this game,
1:40:33
Speaker 2: it's a little bit interesting. I don't know if I'd
1:40:35
Speaker 2: really want to play the side here, because Connecticut actually
1:40:38
Speaker 2: dominated on the rebounds in that game, so Connecticut wasn't
1:40:42
Speaker 2: actually that bad in the game they had, they were
1:40:44
Speaker 2: dominant in the paint. Connecticut missed a ton of free throws,
1:40:48
Speaker 2: so that should be an outlier that that's an outlier
1:40:51
Speaker 2: that should probably progress back to some sort of mean here.
1:40:54
Speaker 2: The Connecticut probably won't shoot that badly from the free
1:40:58
Speaker 2: throw line. Again, some indicators to maybe not like Toronto
1:41:02
Speaker 2: in the game today, so I don't love that. And
1:41:04
Speaker 2: both teams shot like basically average in the game, so
1:41:07
Speaker 2: nothing to really see there as far as an outlier.
1:41:10
Speaker 2: So that does worry me a little bit. That the
1:41:12
Speaker 2: final score wasn't really that misleading in that game, but
1:41:15
Speaker 2: Toronto was still a big favorite got a scare, so
1:41:19
Speaker 2: I do still think Toronto will play better in this game.
1:41:23
Speaker 2: In Toronto, by the way, as far as what they've
1:41:25
Speaker 2: done recently, they're coming off a loss to Indiana or
1:41:28
Speaker 2: they got absolutely smoked by Indiana the other night, so
1:41:32
Speaker 2: they're coming off an ugly blowout loss. That probably means
1:41:35
Speaker 2: Toronto will refocus after that and bounce back. They gave
1:41:38
Speaker 2: up one hundred and thirteen points in that game, absolutely ridiculous,
1:41:42
Speaker 2: So I think Toronto's in a better spot year, although Connecticut,
1:41:45
Speaker 2: you know, is probably gonna be focused as well, just
1:41:47
Speaker 2: because they've lost every game recently. But I think maybe
1:41:51
Speaker 2: the better way to look at this is the under because,
1:41:53
Speaker 2: as you can see, in this previous game, the team's
1:41:56
Speaker 2: both topped one hundred points, although it went into overtime,
1:41:59
Speaker 2: but the the game was tied at ninety six going
1:42:02
Speaker 2: into overtime, so that means it was a was that
1:42:05
Speaker 2: a one ninety two is one ninety two is where
1:42:09
Speaker 2: the total landed in regulation in this game. And you're
1:42:11
Speaker 2: gonna look at this total today and the totals one
1:42:14
Speaker 2: sixty seven and a half one sixty eight and a half.
1:42:17
Speaker 2: What is up with that? Right? Like, how could it
1:42:19
Speaker 2: be that low when these teams scored one hundred and
1:42:22
Speaker 2: ninety something in their previous matchup? Well yeah, but look
1:42:25
Speaker 2: at the reason why that happened. These teams combined for
1:42:30
Speaker 2: sixty one free throws in the game, made sixty one
1:42:34
Speaker 2: free throws made, and they went to the line a combined.
1:42:39
Speaker 2: What is that eighty eighty six times? Is that what
1:42:41
Speaker 2: that is? No, I can't do math eighty eighty times.
1:42:47
Speaker 2: I can't do math anymore. So Yeah, what I'm saying
1:42:51
Speaker 2: is these two teams went to the line way more
1:42:53
Speaker 2: than usual. There was a massive outlier here as far
1:42:55
Speaker 2: as the amount of free throws attempted in this game,
1:42:59
Speaker 2: I don't think that that's gonna happen against So that
1:43:01
Speaker 2: jacked up this total big time as far as what
1:43:04
Speaker 2: happened in that game. So I think the under is
1:43:06
Speaker 2: the best way to play this game. Actually, I don't
1:43:09
Speaker 2: do much with totals here. We got six excuse me,
1:43:12
Speaker 2: we have eighty eight percent of tickets in ninety one
1:43:15
Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over though, so the
1:43:17
Speaker 2: money is coming in on the over. Let's what was
1:43:20
Speaker 2: the total in that other game. Let's just see real quick.
1:43:22
Speaker 2: Let's see how the line has shifted from that one
1:43:25
Speaker 2: game to the next. Let's see if it's higher. The
1:43:28
Speaker 2: total in this game was right at the same number,
1:43:30
Speaker 2: one sixty seven and a half. So yeah, I like
1:43:32
Speaker 2: the under more than anything else. In that game. I
1:43:34
Speaker 2: think it was a major outlier with the amount of
1:43:37
Speaker 2: free throws attempted. I don't think that's gonna happen again.
1:43:40
Speaker 2: So I like the under But if you look at
1:43:42
Speaker 2: the way these teams have played recently, they have played
1:43:44
Speaker 2: in games that have gone over this total recently, like
1:43:48
Speaker 2: the majority of both teams games have gone over this
1:43:50
Speaker 2: total recently. So that does worry me a little bit,
1:43:53
Speaker 2: but I think it under makes sense in that game.
1:43:55
Speaker 2: The other games, I don't have a good reading on
1:43:57
Speaker 2: Washington at New York. This is a mismatch. New York
1:44:00
Speaker 2: is definitely the better team. New York has won a
1:44:03
Speaker 2: bunch of games in a row, eight games in a row.
1:44:06
Speaker 2: I don't know if they're gonna be distracted at it
1:44:08
Speaker 2: all by the parade that happened yesterday in New York
1:44:12
Speaker 2: City for the Knicks. I don't know if it was
1:44:14
Speaker 2: absolute chaos. So I don't know if that's gonna be
1:44:16
Speaker 2: a distraction a day later or not. Because the Liberty
1:44:19
Speaker 2: are playing at home here. I believe they do play
1:44:22
Speaker 2: in Madison Square, right, I'm pretty sure they do. I
1:44:25
Speaker 2: know they don't what the fuck they play in Brooklyn
1:44:28
Speaker 2: at the Barclay Center. How did I not know that.
1:44:30
Speaker 2: I thought they played in Madison Square. Maybe they used to.
1:44:33
Speaker 2: I don't know. The women don't get the right to
1:44:38
Speaker 2: play in the cathedral or whatever the hell it is. Anyway,
1:44:43
Speaker 2: the Liberty just barely scraped by against Chicago in their
1:44:46
Speaker 2: last game, so I guess maybe they show up for
1:44:49
Speaker 2: this game. I don't know. Man they have La next.
1:44:52
Speaker 2: Not sure if that's a big look ahead or not.
1:44:54
Speaker 2: But it is the start of a road trip. Liberty
1:44:56
Speaker 2: are returning from Chicago for this game, but it was
1:44:58
Speaker 2: only a single game road trip. Washington is coming off
1:45:01
Speaker 2: a game against Connecticut where they won, and they're one
1:45:03
Speaker 2: game below five hundred, So I think Washington will be
1:45:05
Speaker 2: motivated here because they're below five hundred. A lot of
1:45:09
Speaker 2: times they'll motivate you to get back to five hundred.
1:45:11
Speaker 2: And we do have a previous matchup that was really
1:45:14
Speaker 2: recent here in New York. Washington went to New York
1:45:18
Speaker 2: during the Cup. New York was a thirteen and a
1:45:21
Speaker 2: half boy favorite in this game, and by the way,
1:45:23
Speaker 2: they're only twelve and a half now but close to thirteen,
1:45:26
Speaker 2: so the line hasn't really moved that much. But if
1:45:29
Speaker 2: you look at what happened in this game. The Liberty
1:45:30
Speaker 2: blew Washington out in this game, and yeah, the Liberty
1:45:35
Speaker 2: are the better team, but if you look at what
1:45:36
Speaker 2: happened in this game, there were some outliers here. The
1:45:40
Speaker 2: Liberty shot forty two percent from three. They hit four
1:45:43
Speaker 2: more threes, so they had they were plus twelve from
1:45:46
Speaker 2: three point range. Washington only twenty eight percent. That's a
1:45:49
Speaker 2: bit of an outlier. And the Liberty had fourteen fewer
1:45:52
Speaker 2: field goal attempts in the game, so Washington actually had
1:45:55
Speaker 2: more possessions in the game because the free throws weren't
1:45:58
Speaker 2: really that disparate. As far as the attempts, Washington, yeah,
1:46:03
Speaker 2: had way more shot attempts, so they made fewer shots
1:46:05
Speaker 2: because they only shot thirty four percent from the field.
1:46:08
Speaker 2: New York shot forty nine percent. So these are outliers here,
1:46:11
Speaker 2: where Washington had a horrible shooting game and they should
1:46:14
Speaker 2: shoot better than that in this game. The Liberty might
1:46:16
Speaker 2: overlook them after this game, and the Liberty probably will
1:46:19
Speaker 2: regress a little bit, especially from three and the other outliers.
1:46:23
Speaker 2: Washington shot fifty six percent from the free throw line.
1:46:26
Speaker 2: They'll probably do better than that in this game. And
1:46:28
Speaker 2: if you look at the rest of the game. Washington
1:46:30
Speaker 2: actually won the rebound battle, so this game was a
1:46:33
Speaker 2: lot closer than the final score looked. So I like
1:46:37
Speaker 2: Washington in this game, and I think the Liberty may
1:46:39
Speaker 2: overlook them. I don't know if I love it enough
1:46:41
Speaker 2: to make it a play, which I know. We've lost
1:46:44
Speaker 2: the last three WNBA plays I've given out, even though
1:46:47
Speaker 2: we won five in a row to start the season,
1:46:49
Speaker 2: and the first two out of the three losses should
1:46:52
Speaker 2: have been wins, so that pissed me off. But yeah,
1:46:55
Speaker 2: I would lean Washington here. The money is back in
1:46:58
Speaker 2: New York though seventy four percent of tickets eighty seven
1:47:00
Speaker 2: percent of the casual on them. I don't like that.
1:47:03
Speaker 2: I mean, it looks like the money disagrees a little
1:47:05
Speaker 2: bit with me. But I like Washington in that game.
1:47:08
Speaker 2: Then we have Minnesota Golden State. This is clearly the
1:47:10
Speaker 2: best of the WNBA games here, even though it's still WNBA.
1:47:14
Speaker 2: But Golden State's won four games in a row. They're
1:47:17
Speaker 2: staying at home. Golden State pretty decent team, but Minnesota
1:47:23
Speaker 2: is the best team in the league and they continue
1:47:25
Speaker 2: to win without call he or Collier is still not
1:47:27
Speaker 2: back yet. This is a very, very good Minnesota team.
1:47:32
Speaker 2: Minnesota is staying in California for this They just won
1:47:35
Speaker 2: in LA now they're going to Golden State. Not really
1:47:38
Speaker 2: a lot to figure out here as far as the situation.
1:47:41
Speaker 2: Both teams are gonna show up for this game. You know,
1:47:45
Speaker 2: these teams did play earlier in the season in Minnesota
1:47:48
Speaker 2: only won by three at home during Cup play, and
1:47:52
Speaker 2: if you look at this game, Minnesota was only three
1:47:54
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite at home. Minnesota dominated the
1:47:57
Speaker 2: rebounds in the game, though Minneso had a double digit
1:48:02
Speaker 2: rebound victory in the game. The one real outlier in
1:48:06
Speaker 2: the game those Minnesota well, they went to the free
1:48:09
Speaker 2: throw line more times, almost double. But they also hit
1:48:12
Speaker 2: fifty percent of their threes in the game. So it's
1:48:15
Speaker 2: not good when you have a you hit fifty percent
1:48:19
Speaker 2: of your threes and you still only win the game
1:48:20
Speaker 2: by three. But Golden State shot way more threes in
1:48:24
Speaker 2: the game. Still, Minnesota dominated in the rebound department, so
1:48:28
Speaker 2: they still were basically the better team in the game.
1:48:30
Speaker 2: So there are some things that kind of indicate both
1:48:33
Speaker 2: ways in that game. I don't really want to deal
1:48:35
Speaker 2: with it, but I, like, you know, I don't even
1:48:38
Speaker 2: know what I like in this game, actually, Minnesota is
1:48:41
Speaker 2: laying two and a half on the road. They were
1:48:42
Speaker 2: three and a half point home favorite, though, so that
1:48:45
Speaker 2: number seems a little bit high to be laying on
1:48:48
Speaker 2: the road, you know what I mean. I think I
1:48:51
Speaker 2: would leave Golden State a little bit here. Golden State
1:48:53
Speaker 2: plus the points. Minnesota's around two and a half here,
1:48:56
Speaker 2: eighty five percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
1:48:59
Speaker 2: cash on Minnesota, so the money is back in Minnesota
1:49:03
Speaker 2: a little bit here. But the fact they were three
1:49:04
Speaker 2: and a half at home and now they're two and
1:49:06
Speaker 2: a half on the road, so favored by almost the
1:49:07
Speaker 2: same amount, I think this line should be a little
1:49:10
Speaker 2: bit closer to a pick them. Golden State is definitely
1:49:12
Speaker 2: a competitive team, so that's kind of the way I
1:49:16
Speaker 2: look at that game. Then we got World Cup before
1:49:19
Speaker 2: I get out of here. Afternoon is US and Australia.
1:49:22
Speaker 2: US is minus one sixty on the three away line.
1:49:25
Speaker 2: The US played their first game I believe, in California,
1:49:30
Speaker 2: and now they're coming up to Seattle for this, so
1:49:32
Speaker 2: they're staying in the Pacific time zone for this. Australia
1:49:35
Speaker 2: doesn't have to go that far either, though. I'm pretty sure,
1:49:37
Speaker 2: Australia played their first game in Vancouver and now they're
1:49:40
Speaker 2: coming down for this, so the travel spot actually helps
1:49:42
Speaker 2: Australia a little bit here and then they're staying in
1:49:46
Speaker 2: the Pacific Northwest. You can check me if I'm wrong,
1:49:48
Speaker 2: but I'm pretty sure that's right. These games are on,
1:49:51
Speaker 2: They're all on Fox, Fox one, Fox Sports one, Tell
1:49:54
Speaker 2: a whatever. Australia, though, they are coming off an upset.
1:49:59
Speaker 2: They up set Turkey, which was pretty unexpected, and if
1:50:02
Speaker 2: you dig into this game, it was a little bit misleading.
1:50:07
Speaker 2: The game was was a lot closer than it looked
1:50:10
Speaker 2: in Turkey dominated possession in the game, expected goals, expected
1:50:14
Speaker 2: Turkey to win that game one point three to six
1:50:17
Speaker 2: to one point one to eight, So this was a
1:50:19
Speaker 2: misleading final. Turkey probably should have won that game. So
1:50:22
Speaker 2: Australia was not as good as they looked in the game.
1:50:24
Speaker 2: They're not actually that good of a team really. The US, though,
1:50:29
Speaker 2: I mean, they're coming off a misleading result too. I
1:50:31
Speaker 2: mean they dominated Paraguay, but if you look at the
1:50:34
Speaker 2: expected final score of this game, it wasn't that lopside
1:50:38
Speaker 2: and the US there was an own goal immediately from Paraguay,
1:50:43
Speaker 2: so the US got helped out right away by Paraguay
1:50:46
Speaker 2: scoring for the US. Then the US, you know, kind
1:50:50
Speaker 2: of had this barrage at the end of the first half,
1:50:52
Speaker 2: and then they did put in another goal right at
1:50:55
Speaker 2: the end after it was three to one. They they
1:50:57
Speaker 2: scored an extra time when it was pretty much over whatever.
1:51:00
Speaker 2: But if you look at what the expected result was here,
1:51:03
Speaker 2: it was one point four to two to point five
1:51:05
Speaker 2: to four for the US, So it was more like
1:51:09
Speaker 2: a one nothing US win in the game than what
1:51:12
Speaker 2: the final really was. So that does help as far
1:51:14
Speaker 2: as the under purposes for sab there for today's game.
1:51:18
Speaker 2: You know, I don't necessarily disagree with the under in
1:51:21
Speaker 2: today's game US. You know, I mean, in this game,
1:51:27
Speaker 2: the US was the better team. Still, they still won
1:51:29
Speaker 2: the possession battle by quite a bit and whatever, and
1:51:31
Speaker 2: won the expected goals battle whatever, But it was not
1:51:34
Speaker 2: as lopsided as it looked. So both teams are kind
1:51:37
Speaker 2: of teams that'd be looking to fade coming into this game.
1:51:41
Speaker 2: Do I think the US is gonna lose? Probably not.
1:51:45
Speaker 2: But again I don't think you're getting any value playing
1:51:49
Speaker 2: them because these books are all US based books, and
1:51:52
Speaker 2: they know everybody's gonna want to bet the US, so
1:51:54
Speaker 2: you're gonna be paying a premium for the US until
1:51:57
Speaker 2: they face a team that's actually better than them, you
1:52:00
Speaker 2: know what I mean. So I don't love it. This
1:52:02
Speaker 2: is a that game is a stay away from me.
1:52:04
Speaker 2: I think my favorite look is in the Scotland Morocco
1:52:08
Speaker 2: game here now Morocco, they're only traveling from New Jersey here.
1:52:11
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they played in in East Ruther for
1:52:15
Speaker 2: New Jersey at the MetLife or whatever the hell it is,
1:52:18
Speaker 2: the Jets and Giants Stadium, so they're only coming up
1:52:20
Speaker 2: from the New York area. Scotland is staying in Foxboro,
1:52:24
Speaker 2: mass though, and Scotland has basically made their home in
1:52:28
Speaker 2: the Boston area, so you know, Scotland's gonna have a
1:52:31
Speaker 2: huge amount of fans support here. So Scotland does have
1:52:36
Speaker 2: that advantage. I should have considered that in the first
1:52:38
Speaker 2: game too against Haiti. Haiti not a very good team.
1:52:41
Speaker 2: Although Scotland was a pretty heavy favorite in that game,
1:52:44
Speaker 2: maybe too heavily favored. They did wind up with a win,
1:52:47
Speaker 2: though Scotland did, but it was a low scoring game
1:52:51
Speaker 2: and it was a one nothing win. I looked at
1:52:52
Speaker 2: the expected score of that one and it was close
1:52:56
Speaker 2: to zero zero on the expected score. It was a
1:52:59
Speaker 2: huge win for by the way, because they hadn't had
1:53:01
Speaker 2: a win in the World Cup for thirty six years.
1:53:04
Speaker 2: So does that mean they're gonna be in a letdown
1:53:06
Speaker 2: spot here? I actually don't think so. I think that
1:53:09
Speaker 2: kind of gets that monkey off their back. Whatever. The
1:53:12
Speaker 2: expected score was actually one to one in this game,
1:53:14
Speaker 2: and actually Haiti won that I'm a possession slightly, so
1:53:18
Speaker 2: that does worry me a little bit that Scotland was
1:53:20
Speaker 2: not really great in that game against a bad Haiti team. Here,
1:53:25
Speaker 2: Morocco is the better team, although I think Morocco does
1:53:28
Speaker 2: have some injuries here. They have they don't have so
1:53:31
Speaker 2: many of those guys that were there on that run
1:53:33
Speaker 2: that they made whatever it was four or eight years
1:53:36
Speaker 2: ago in the World Cup. Morocco is favored here at
1:53:39
Speaker 2: minus won fifty. But again, Scotland's gonna have kind of
1:53:42
Speaker 2: a home advantage here and Morocco, I think, is in
1:53:44
Speaker 2: a bad spot because they just had a draw with Brazil. Now,
1:53:48
Speaker 2: I think Brazil is not as good as they usually
1:53:50
Speaker 2: are this year, so I think Brazil might be a
1:53:52
Speaker 2: little bit overvalued here. But Morocco played to a draw
1:53:56
Speaker 2: with them. So Morocco coming up a huge performance like
1:53:59
Speaker 2: that against one of the powerhouses of soccer, you know
1:54:03
Speaker 2: who's still Brazil still is one of the top like
1:54:06
Speaker 2: five teams in odds to win this thing. So that's
1:54:10
Speaker 2: a big game for Morocco. Man, the fact they were
1:54:12
Speaker 2: able to draw Brazil, that's pretty huge, so I think
1:54:15
Speaker 2: they could be in a bit of a letdown Spidier,
1:54:17
Speaker 2: so I don't like that. So it does look like
1:54:18
Speaker 2: a fade spot for Morocco coming into this game. This
1:54:22
Speaker 2: game was close though on the expected goals actually had
1:54:25
Speaker 2: Morocco slightly winning the game here, I don't know how.
1:54:29
Speaker 2: I don't know what goes into that formula exactly. Brazil
1:54:32
Speaker 2: only slightly won the possession battle, So this wasn't like
1:54:35
Speaker 2: the type of game where like, Brazil is better than Morocco.
1:54:39
Speaker 2: So you'd think that the one to one could be
1:54:41
Speaker 2: a misleading result, and maybe if you dig into the
1:54:43
Speaker 2: box score, it looked it would look like that, you know,
1:54:46
Speaker 2: like what I talked about yesterday it was Switzerland and Cutter,
1:54:49
Speaker 2: you know where it would look like statistically it would
1:54:53
Speaker 2: look like Brazil dominated the game. But that's not the case.
1:54:56
Speaker 2: They actually didn't dominate this game, so that makes you
1:54:59
Speaker 2: like Mora a little bit less here because Brazil actually
1:55:02
Speaker 2: didn't play well. It wasn't really that misleading of a
1:55:05
Speaker 2: result there. So I slightly lean towards Scotland here I
1:55:09
Speaker 2: would be Scotland on the it would be Scotland winner
1:55:13
Speaker 2: draw or what sab did the plus half a goal
1:55:16
Speaker 2: or whatever, depending on because those are basically the same thing,
1:55:19
Speaker 2: right Scotland winner draw, Scotland plus a half goal the
1:55:22
Speaker 2: same thing. But they're different markets. So this is what
1:55:24
Speaker 2: you want to do in soccer. You want to actually
1:55:26
Speaker 2: look at both markets and determine which one gives you
1:55:29
Speaker 2: the better odds, you know what I mean, Because one
1:55:31
Speaker 2: of the markets is probably gonna have better odds than
1:55:33
Speaker 2: the other one. The odds won't line up because there's
1:55:35
Speaker 2: separate markets, so whicheveryone gives you the better number. That's
1:55:38
Speaker 2: kind of what I would look at here. That would
1:55:40
Speaker 2: be my lean Scotland winner draw or plus the half goal.
1:55:46
Speaker 2: By the way, one other way that you can look
1:55:47
Speaker 2: at these games to try to get the favorite price
1:55:50
Speaker 2: down would be a win to nil bet, which means
1:55:53
Speaker 2: that you're betting on that particular team to win the
1:55:56
Speaker 2: game but also win in a shutout. So it looked
1:55:59
Speaker 2: like you could have done that Switzerland yesterday until chaos
1:56:02
Speaker 2: erupted at the end of that game and they want
1:56:04
Speaker 2: up allowing a goal in garbage time in extra time
1:56:07
Speaker 2: when it didn't even matter. So if you lost a
1:56:09
Speaker 2: wind to no bet on Switzerland yesterday, that was a brutal,
1:56:14
Speaker 2: brutal result there because they were winning the game one
1:56:17
Speaker 2: nothing at like the eighty minute mark probably or something
1:56:20
Speaker 2: like that, so you know the wind and know looked
1:56:22
Speaker 2: like it was almost a certainty at that point. That
1:56:26
Speaker 2: could have been a way to get Switzerland's price down,
1:56:28
Speaker 2: but luckily for us on the show, I gave them
1:56:30
Speaker 2: out just on the money line. Brazil is a huge
1:56:33
Speaker 2: favorite here against Haiti they're playing. Oh and by the way,
1:56:37
Speaker 2: I don't think I forgot to completely point out, Scotland
1:56:40
Speaker 2: is staying in the same stadium for that match against Morocco,
1:56:43
Speaker 2: so Scotland is already used to that stadium. Haiti is
1:56:47
Speaker 2: going from Foxborough, mass down to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to play
1:56:52
Speaker 2: Brazil here. Brazil is only going from New Jersey to Pennsylvania,
1:56:56
Speaker 2: so Brazil a little bit of a travel edge. You're
1:56:58
Speaker 2: not really much of anything, though, but Brazil coming off
1:57:02
Speaker 2: that bad result against Morocco, Brazil is way better than Haiti.
1:57:06
Speaker 2: Haiti is like the lowest ranked team in this entire thing.
1:57:09
Speaker 2: I think as far as the FEEFA rankings, I think
1:57:12
Speaker 2: Haiti is ranked lower than Curis, although I still think
1:57:15
Speaker 2: Haiti is better than curosl and maybe better than a
1:57:18
Speaker 2: couple of these other really lower tier teams. Here, Brazil
1:57:22
Speaker 2: should win this game. Though they're a minus nine hundred favorite.
1:57:25
Speaker 2: They should be in a bounce back mode here. I
1:57:28
Speaker 2: don't think I quite want to do it, but I
1:57:29
Speaker 2: think if you want to play this game, I think
1:57:31
Speaker 2: you should play Brazil over their team total. I think
1:57:34
Speaker 2: Haiti typically does allow a pretty good amount of goals.
1:57:38
Speaker 2: Scotland just couldn't take advantage of that because their offense
1:57:40
Speaker 2: isn't that good. Brazil over their team total makes sense.
1:57:43
Speaker 2: You're probably looking at needing them to score three goals
1:57:47
Speaker 2: in the game, but I think they could do that,
1:57:49
Speaker 2: so I think that's probably what I would do in
1:57:51
Speaker 2: this game. Brazil minus nine hundred is a non starter.
1:57:54
Speaker 2: I don't think you could lay minus nine hundred here
1:57:57
Speaker 2: you could, I guess, lay like a goal line or
1:58:00
Speaker 2: whatever take Brazil to win by some crazy amount of goals.
1:58:04
Speaker 2: But I think over the team total makes more sense
1:58:07
Speaker 2: then Turkey and Paraguay. You already know my thoughts on
1:58:09
Speaker 2: that Paraguay is staying in California for this Turkey where
1:58:17
Speaker 2: was Turkey is coming from? Where? Wait? I forget already.
1:58:20
Speaker 2: Turkey's coming down from Vancouver, so they're still in the
1:58:23
Speaker 2: Pacific time zone down to northern California. Paraguay is coming
1:58:28
Speaker 2: up from southern California. But Turkey they will have to
1:58:31
Speaker 2: go through customs, I guess and whatever. I don't. I
1:58:33
Speaker 2: don't know how exactly it works. I figured I did
1:58:37
Speaker 2: figure out that there are some teams like Iran that
1:58:39
Speaker 2: aren't allowed to stay in the in the US at
1:58:42
Speaker 2: all while they're playing games in the US. So that's
1:58:44
Speaker 2: gonna give Iran a travel disadvantage, and we'll talk about
1:58:47
Speaker 2: that the next time they play. But this game, I
1:58:50
Speaker 2: don't think there's a huge travel edge one way or
1:58:52
Speaker 2: the other. Turkey is plus one ten. They're the better team,
1:58:55
Speaker 2: or I think they're the second best team in this
1:58:56
Speaker 2: group behind the US. As I pointed out Turkey. Kind
1:59:00
Speaker 2: of a misleading result here, No way, they should have
1:59:02
Speaker 2: lost two to nothing as whatever size favorite they were here.
1:59:07
Speaker 2: They were only a minus one thirty five favorite on
1:59:10
Speaker 2: the three away. But still they should have beaten Australia.
1:59:13
Speaker 2: It's kind of ridiculous that they lost this and like
1:59:15
Speaker 2: I said, they dominated possession. It was a bit of
1:59:18
Speaker 2: a misleading result. Turkey statistically should have won that game,
1:59:23
Speaker 2: won that match, I should say so. Paraguay not a
1:59:27
Speaker 2: good team, dude. I mean, I know it was a
1:59:29
Speaker 2: misleading result against the US. It should have been closer,
1:59:32
Speaker 2: but Paraguay they still were only at point six y
1:59:35
Speaker 2: four expected goals in that game, so their offense did
1:59:39
Speaker 2: absolutely nothing in that game. I like Turkey in this one.
1:59:43
Speaker 2: Turkey's coming off a game where they should have won,
1:59:45
Speaker 2: like a team usually bounces back when they're coming off
1:59:47
Speaker 2: of a loss as a favorite, and they should have won.
1:59:50
Speaker 2: And they're gonna be in desperation mode here because they
1:59:53
Speaker 2: don't have a point yet or no, sorry they do
1:59:56
Speaker 2: they have one point, right, or no they don't. They lost. Yeah,
1:59:58
Speaker 2: they need a point badly here now. Yeah, Paraguay is
2:00:01
Speaker 2: pointless as well, so they're gonna need a point here, which,
2:00:05
Speaker 2: by the way, the US might start taking their foot
2:00:08
Speaker 2: off the gas a little bit at some point because
2:00:10
Speaker 2: they have a decent amount of points already here, but
2:00:14
Speaker 2: not yet though, probably because they're tied with Australia top
2:00:17
Speaker 2: that group right now. But whatever, I like Turkey here.
2:00:21
Speaker 2: They're the better team. They're coming off a loss as
2:00:24
Speaker 2: a favorite, which I think is more of a bounce
2:00:25
Speaker 2: back spot. Paraguay is coming off an expected loss to
2:00:29
Speaker 2: the US, even though it was more lopsided than it
2:00:32
Speaker 2: actually It looked more lopsided than it actually was. But
2:00:34
Speaker 2: still Turkey is the better team. I would lean to
2:00:37
Speaker 2: Turkey there. And that's it, man, that's gonna do it. Yeah,
2:00:43
Speaker 2: that's the show for today. Long show. Today. We have
2:00:45
Speaker 2: three baseball players are on the Washington Nationals in the
2:00:48
Speaker 2: first five on the money line. A little bit of
2:00:50
Speaker 2: an underdog there. Run under seven and a half, or
2:00:53
Speaker 2: you might have to play under seven in Padres Rangers,
2:00:56
Speaker 2: but I do like that to be a low scoring game.
2:00:59
Speaker 2: And last minute again, three days in a row, we're
2:01:01
Speaker 2: going last minute or three out of the last four days.
2:01:05
Speaker 2: Maybe yesterday's last minute ad audition was a win on
2:01:09
Speaker 2: the Royal, So hopefully we can do this over in
2:01:12
Speaker 2: Anaheim and the a's here over the ten. Let's get
2:01:15
Speaker 2: it done. That's gonna do it. Learn its one on Twitter,
2:01:17
Speaker 2: Learn its one on Instagram. Thanks for hanging out everybody.
2:01:20
Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Listen, listen to the show on audio, Apple, Spotify, spreaker.
2:01:25
Speaker 2: That helps me out. We're getting some better numbers on
2:01:28
Speaker 2: audio recently, so that's good. Like, subscribe to the channel here.
2:01:31
Speaker 2: You can check that out, or I mean you should
2:01:34
Speaker 2: do that. Excuse me, begin to spread the word around.
2:01:37
Speaker 2: We're almost up to five hundred subs, so hopefully we
2:01:39
Speaker 2: can get there. Doesn't take much to subscribe. You don't
2:01:42
Speaker 2: even have to watch me. Just subscribe. That helps. Like
2:01:45
Speaker 2: and comment on the videos and whatever covered in you
2:01:49
Speaker 2: because my yuk channel on YouTube, you can check that out.
2:01:51
Speaker 2: My ukulele covers. I know I've been not in the
2:01:55
Speaker 2: best of health, so I've been waiting to put up
2:01:58
Speaker 2: some more covers there. You can check that out. Patreon,
2:02:00
Speaker 2: dot com, slash and learn to toe if you want
2:02:02
Speaker 2: to throw me some support, even if you just want
2:02:04
Speaker 2: to do it, because I'm giving you winners on the
2:02:05
Speaker 2: show here, but you also get bonus ukulele stuff there
2:02:10
Speaker 2: so you could do that. I was on the Pick
2:02:14
Speaker 2: is In podcast. I retweeted it. It was released last night,
2:02:18
Speaker 2: I think as an episode, so you can go check
2:02:19
Speaker 2: that out. It was fun hanging out with those guys
2:02:22
Speaker 2: there with Snoop and I apologize I already forget the
2:02:26
Speaker 2: name of the other dude there, but yeah, go go
2:02:29
Speaker 2: check their show out. It was a fun time. And
2:02:32
Speaker 2: then Loser cast every Tuesday that I'll be back. We
2:02:36
Speaker 2: did have two episodes this week, so you can go
2:02:38
Speaker 2: check that out Monday and Tuesday with different guests and
2:02:42
Speaker 2: the Giants New York Giants g Spot Podcast. We'll be
2:02:45
Speaker 2: back at some point. That's gonna do it. I appreciate
2:02:48
Speaker 2: it everybody as always. Let's get some wins today. Let's
2:02:51
Speaker 2: at least go too and one today. Peace, but don't
2:02:55
Speaker 2: you go quiet. Don't you play it from the flow?
2:02:59
Speaker 4: Your name, steal me something new, somebody for show.
2:03:03
Speaker 3: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
2:03:13
Speaker 3: hold on.
2:03:15
Speaker 4: Nothing nice up, now, hold on, hold on. Let me
2:03:24
Speaker 4: foll you. That lock bites hard, but it don't get
2:03:33
Speaker 4: the crown. Hold on, hold on and stay with me
2:03:40
Speaker 4: now