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Confronting Climate Challenges · Look Forward

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Hello, my name's Andy Critchlow.
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I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and welcome to the
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Look Forward Podcast from S&P Global.
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In today's rapidly shifting markets success depends on
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anticipating what's next.
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The professionals who excel are those who can spot emerging trends
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before they fully materialize.
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cutting edge research on long-term trends and transformative market shifts.
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Together we are committed to providing the forward-looking intelligence you need
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to navigate uncertainty with confidence.
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Welcome to the Look Forward Podcast, where we explore the
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trends shaping tomorrow's world.
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I'm your host, Andy Critchlow.
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I'm head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and today we are diving into
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one of the most urgent and complex challenges of our time, climate change.
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And its growing impact on global weather systems.
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From intensifying heat waves and shifting rainfall patterns to the rising
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frequency of extreme weather events.
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The climate story is no longer just about, the future.
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It's unfolding now, and understanding it requires both scientific, scientific
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depth, and strategic foresight.
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Joining us today are two guests who bring exactly that.
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So I'm delighted firstly to welcome Lindsay Hall, Global Head of Thought
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leadership at S&P Global Sustainable1.
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Lindsay's gonna be joining me as co-host today for the discussion.
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Lindsay leads, the charge in weaving together ESG data and sustainability
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insights into compelling narratives that help make sense a fast evolving landscapes
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like climate change for Sustainable1.
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Also with us, I'm delighted to say is Terence Thompson, Chief Science
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Officer at S&P Global ESG product.
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Terence brings a wealth of research experience, in the science space.
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Helping, to translate complex environmental data into
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actionable intelligence for markets and policy makers.
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So, to kick us off today, first question, 2025 has been, you know,
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one of the hottest on record.
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I think we've seen it everywhere globally, heat rising.
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That's having a big impact in terms of these, you know, adverse weather
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events, which, you know, as a news journalist, the team that I
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manage, you know, reports regularly.
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I guess coming to you first, Lindsey, you know, what does all this mean for
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global efforts to cap, temperature increase and, and, you know, really
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the, the, the international campaign to avoid, you know, dramatic climate change.
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Well Andy, I'm also a former journalist, so I know that the thing that really
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gets people's attention is when you can quantify, when you can put a number on it.
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And earlier this year, one thing that the team at S&P Global Sustainable1 did was
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publish research that found that without adaptation, annual financial impact of
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climate physical risk is projected to total $1.2 trillion by the 2050s, and
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that's for the world's largest companies.
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So a really striking number there.
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Yeah.
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I mean, when you look at that number, I mean it's, it's, it's staggering.
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You know, 1.2 trillion, I think, you know, the UK where, you know, I'm,
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based, you know, it's a trillion, it's a trillion pound economy.
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So, you know, when you put that into context, you know, the, the, the, the
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amount of risk that corporations face from this, I think, you know, Terry, you know,
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from your position, looking at this from a more research angle, looking at the data.
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Do you think that it's been taken seriously enough that that
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number, that 1.2 trillion number.
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Some elements of the business and financial communities are taking that
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very seriously and others are not.
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It's difficult to understand, quantitatively how much uptake of these,
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rather severe impacts is actually going on in the corporate and financial worlds.
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So we know that some people are paying quite a lot of attention.
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We're not sure how many people are actually taking people, meaning
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entities are actually taking action.
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The impacts are potentially enormous, although there is, a lot of
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uncertainty about overall GDP slowdown associated with climate change.
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A reduction in our ability to grow economies, measured via GDP.
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That impact, could be 10 or 20%, by the end of the century,
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according to some estimates.
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Now, the problem here is that the econometric science behind estimating
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those impacts has a wide variation in the potential estimates at present.
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But it's extremely important,
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that risk managers in the corporate and financial worlds have an estimate
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of the higher end risks as well.
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So we shouldn't take this uncertainty as, an indicator that
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we should not be paying attention.
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Appropriate risk management really does pay attention to the tail risks and
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takes actions that can guard against the impacts of very substantial impacts.
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So Terry, on that point, you know, I, you know, I talk to a lot of our
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colleagues all over the world, every day.
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And it's very interesting 'cause as a Brit most of my conversations start with, well,
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what's the weather like at the moment?
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You know, I spoke to some colleagues in, in, in Delhi the other day.
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They've had record floods.
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You know, one of one, one of our colleagues, who is from North India said,
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you know, that they were quite embarrassed as a North Indian, you know, for the first
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time they were saying they hope it stops raining, 'cause normally it's baking hot.
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This time of the year we've had a record, summer temperatures in the uk.
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If I look at my team, you know, we're reporting all the time, you know, falling
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r either falling Rhine levels to points where barges can't navigate or surging
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Rhine levels 'cause of floods and the the barges can't go under the bridges.
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We see this all over the world.
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You've had, you know, dramatic, you know, fires, for example in California,
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which cause huge amounts of damage.
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You know, from the data.
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What are we seeing in terms of the numbers of these, these very dramatic
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weather events linked to climate change that are affecting business?
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They, they, they're causing massive amounts of financial damage.
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You know, how is that increasing or is it staying level?
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It is increasing.
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It's a difficult,
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Quantification problem to summarize the increases because
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they differ in time and space.
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But some regions are now being a being, proactive in keeping track of
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certain measures of extreme events.
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Europe's, the leader in this and in general terms, the
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extreme events are increasing.
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This is fundamentally driven by the thermodynamics of climate change.
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As the atmosphere is able to, is heating up, it's able to hold more moisture.
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And the presence of that moisture is one of the main contributing factors to what
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we call hydro climactic variability.
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Wider swings in climate conditions that can lead to droughts or very
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wet periods, can lead to wildfires.
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If you have a wet period that, for a couple of years that is contributing
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to rapid growth of, trees and shrubs, and then you have a drying period.
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Part of this variability, what you're doing is providing fuel for
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a wildfire, massive amounts of fuel.
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Then you're drying it out, so you're providing ideal conditions
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to have a massive wildfire.
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This is actually what happened, in the Los Angeles wildfires, in January.
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That was that kind of event.
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Growth of fuels due to very good growing conditions for a couple of
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years, and then drying out rapidly and then high winds, and an ignition
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event, which led to a devastating fire.
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We can't say that climate change caused that event, but we can say
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that climate change exacerbated the severity of that event.
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And I had the chance to, I had the chance to talk to Terry right after
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those wildfires that he just referenced.
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And what I think is so valuable about the work that he's doing and the work
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that the Climate Center of Excellence is doing is how they take these very
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complex topics like Terry's just been describing, which require a lot of nuance
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and translating them into plain English.
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That's what I'm hearing a lot from the market and in my conversations,
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for the all things sustainable podcast, I'm hearing this appetite
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from financial decision makers.
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You know, they're saying, we understand that climate change impacts our
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business, but we need help translating.
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So how do you translate that into, into, like actionable information.
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I know Terry, if, if I think that's a lot of the work that you're
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doing, if I understand correctly.
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Yes.
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That that's the core of the work.
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I was trying to give a description of how climate change factors can lead
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to exacerbation of extreme events.
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In response to the question about are these increasing?
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But the core of our work is exactly this translation of very complex
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and diverse forms of climate related information into actionable information
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that decision makers can use.
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In a nutshell, that boils down to taking hundreds, if not thousands of scientific
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papers, dozens of different data sets and integrating those into a hazard metric.
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It might be, counting the number of very hot days.
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It can be much more subtle than that can have to do with, heat
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stress and heat waves and so on.
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But think of a dozen or so, or two dozen hazard metrics translated from this
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enormous amount of information into information that can be shared with, with
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our clients through a, user interface that gives them a plot of not only hazard,
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but also a risk associated with that hazard through time, decade by decade,
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so that fundamentally they can decide.
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For the assets that they care about.
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Do I face a sea level rise problem?
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Do I face a wildfire problem?
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When do I face those problems, and where?
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I may face a sea level rise problem in a certain location, but I
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won't face that until the 2050s.
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Whereas for wildfire in other locations, I'm facing that this decade.
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That's what I mean by actionable information.
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What, when, where, how much, so that one can allocate resources, adaptation
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resources, or other types of, of, corporate decisions that would be
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influenced by this kind of information.
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I guess on that point, corporate decisions and, and you know, you
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speak Lindsay to a lot of different businesses looking at this.
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We are advising a lot of different businesses looking at this and,
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and coming up with plans long term.
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I, you know, I kind of think sometimes around climate change, you know, it, it,
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is it, is it their horse leading the cart?
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Is it the, you know, the CEO in the boardroom?
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Are they kind of making decisions about how they want to alter their
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business practices in terms of their own emissions or their products
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and services that they provide to be more, sort of net zero focused.
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Is it that they're responding to changes that we're already
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seeing in customer behavior.
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You know, it's the kind of Noam Chomsky, sort of manufacturing consent
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argument that, that, you know, change come, it's the bottom up, right?
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And if enough people at the bottom change their behavior, then the people at the
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top, the corporations, the governments, et cetera, they have to change.
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Right?
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Which one is it?
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That's a good question from my perspective.
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I mean, you're seeing this push towards sustainability broadly and climate
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action more specifically coming from a lot of different kinds of stakeholder
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groups from, you know, the citizens who are experiencing it, like your, your
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colleagues who you're mentioning, Andy, in their day-to-day lives more frequently.
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We have colleagues in Asheville who lived through the recent hurricane
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and the fallout from that, And Terry, I know you, you work really
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closely with a lot of people who are also impacted by those LA wildfires.
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So, so it's people who are living this in their daily lives.
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but then it's also investors who are seeing how this impacts
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their, their bottom line.
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And I think that's the big question that we're increasingly hearing from people.
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If I had to summarize like all the many conversations I have for
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the podcast, I'm hearing that.
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Investors, businesses, many stakeholders, regulators, policy makers, they're
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paying attention to climate change.
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They know that it impacts, their bottom line, but they need to be able to tie it
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back to the financial decision making.
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Like how do you clearly articulate why this matters for your bottom line?
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Because a lot of these stakeholders have a fiduciary duty, right?
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That they have two, two stakeholders.
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And
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I guess wrapped into that, it's, it's this inflection point between electro
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dollar states and petrodollar states.
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Right?
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And you know, corporations that feed into that, you know,
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you look at, stock valuations.
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I mean, Nvidia, I mean, how much is it worth?
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It's just this huge company.
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It's all based on the development of AI data centers.
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And, and, and of course energy is a key part of that.
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and, and you know, the, the, the, if you look at the, the, the companies that
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are tied to that, you know, they have.
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You know, their, their, their market value is bigger.
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Their, you know, earnings per share is, is is bigger than, you know, the
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traditional fossil fuel companies.
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You could argue.
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That are dependent on the world kind of staying the same, arguably.
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You know, what, what's your take on that, Terry?
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Well, I, I would like to react to, something that Lindsay said
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before we go to that, that topic.
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We sometimes think of corporations as entities that need to be corralled
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and need to be told what to do.
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In other words, be sustainable regulations and so on and so forth.
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And I just wanna emphasize that in our interaction with clients, we,
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we are seeing companies that have on staff sustainability experts,
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and so they're attempting to do,
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the right thing with regard to sustainability.
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And they also need help.
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They need data.
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They need the ability to quantify the effects of being more sustainable,
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but they have built into their organization a sustainability awareness.
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And that's a positive aspect that I'd like to emphasize something
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that I was not quite aware of myself, when I started in this area.
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That's very true, and that's a very good point.
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And even the companies.
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We are seeing, you know, with some of the backlash around sustainability climate
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in the US we're seeing some companies change some of the language they use
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internally to talk about their efforts.
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But I'm hearing from a lot of these companies that those efforts can continue.
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To give you one example, like the biggest bank in the us, JP Morgan, they
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exited the net-zero banking alliance.
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But at the same time, they said that their commitment to sustainability
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and climate action remains steadfast, was the word that they used.
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I'm hearing versions of that across a lot of different conversations,
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but please go ahead, Terry.
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Well, coming back to, to Andrew's, question about, I take it to be
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the huge demand for electricity associated with, what we generally
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call, AI, or large language models, to be more specific, thinking of
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Chat GPT and other capabilities.
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So yes, those do take significantly more energy.
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And there's a,
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There's an emerging, question at, at a personal level if I know that in a,
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sorry, I don't have a precise number in front of me, but let's just say that an
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ordinary Google search costs one unit of energy and a chat GPT or a large language
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model based search takes 10 units of energy, one might ask, not unlike the
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efficiency, rating on your refrigerator.
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What's your personal responsibility associated with using or moderating
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the use of this high energy consuming, very attractive technology?
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So I think I'm augmenting perhaps, or, or, altering the terrain a little bit here
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from the responsibility of the corporation to something about the responsibility
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of, of all of us as consumers.
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To moderate our energy usage.
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Yeah, that it's a very interesting point that the, that, that, that, you
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know, where does the responsibility lie?
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And, and, and you know, I think, you know, if you, if we were to like skip forward
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50 years, you know, will our counterparts in 50 years, will it be a case?
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Every individual will have a, their own carbon allowance.
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And you'll have a certain number of carbon credits as a citizen of wherever
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you live that you'll have, that you'd be able to spend every, every year.
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Um and then once that is gone, you either have to buy more, which will
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be very expensive, or you just can't.
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You have to change your behavior.
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Do you think that, that that's what the future holds really, as opposed
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to it actually all being controlled by big governments and corporations?
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Well, I think
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it's a fairly deep philosophical economic and sociological, question.
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I imagine that different societies will react, differently.
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To engage into in some popular psychology.
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I'm not so sure, how qualified I am to engage in this, but we might say
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in, in a more centrally controlled society, we would see a certain type of
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behavior in a less centrally controlled society, we'd see a different behavior.
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I'm thinking here of, the COVID, epidemic, pandemic.
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We saw different social responses.
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China differed very, very much from what we saw in the US.
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Europe differed to a certain degree, from the US as well.
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I think we will probably see these kinds of sociocultural
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differences emerge, in future.
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Where do, where do you see that, Lindsay, in terms of the balance
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between you, you tax the individual for the, for the, for the emissions
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as opposed to taxing the corporations?
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I mean, we're seeing elements of this already, you know,
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coming into effect globally.
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You have CBAM, you have, you know, prices on carbon.
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And you, you, you know, I think it is poss, you know, realistic
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to think, you know, 20, 30 years down the line, maybe even sooner.
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You have more direct taxes on the individual because, you know, ultimately
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I think all governments around the world will certainly, in, in, in the west, the
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US, Europe, every, all these governments are struggling with massive debt deficits
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and, and, and having to finance those.
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So everyone's kind of faced ultimately with having to raise more revenue.
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So here you kind of think, well, there's a scenario where we can, we
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can raise revenue by more direct, I won't say syntax, but you could
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frame it that way, on, on, on, you know, higher emissions activities.
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And that will bring in more income versus, you know, the alternative.
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Yeah.
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I'd like to pick up on the word you used there, Andy, you said balancing and I
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think that's really, at the crux of a lot of the conversations I've been having in
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the sustainability space, we're seeing amid the pushback on sustainability
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and ESG in parts of the world.
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We're seeing this rising conversation around the need for a balancing
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act and sometimes trade-offs, and there's a lot of active debate.
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I don't think I have the answer.
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But it, it is one of the most probably hotly debated topics that I'm hearing
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is how, what is the balancing act when it comes to how do you prioritize
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long-term sustainability with the very real threat of climate change?
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how do you balance that with the very real and immediate concerns
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of things like energy security?
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The Russia-Ukraine War showed us the importance of, of having energy
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security and then energy affordability.
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How do you make sure that energy is affordable at the same time that you're
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thinking about, you know, net zero?
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So not really an answer, but I guess just, just posing, another question.
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It's, it's, but though, when you raised the war in Ukraine, it, it reminds
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me of, of, I, I, back in 2005, I was covering, an OPEC meeting in Doha.
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And, it was quite a tense OPEC meeting I remember.
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And, a colleague of mine, at the time, who, who, who's still a journalist,
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said to me, you know, we, we've spent the last five years, and I was based
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in Iraq as a journalist, 2003, 2004.
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We spent the last five years covering, you know, wars, mainly around getting
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oil out of the ground, controlling oil.
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And you could argue that, you know, in the post World War II era, all
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the most of the conflicts have been around control of resources, oil.
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And he said that actually the next 20, 30 years, the wars of the future
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are all, are gonna all, will all be about keeping the oil in the ground.
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To stop the emissions because the issue of climate change is gonna become so serious
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for governments that, and on the other side, you know, for the oil producers,
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again, you know, it's f of nations, they, they, they depend on, on, on petroleum
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to, for their foreign export earnings.
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So, you know, you're talking.
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Systematic, you know, really important change that would have to happen.
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Do, do, you, would you agree?
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What with, with my old colleague in, in that sort of future outlook for the world?
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I mean, I'd be curious to know Terry's take on this as well, but
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I, I certainly think it is an area that's creating a lot of conflict.
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In the policy space and then in the corporate space.
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There's been a dramatic change, hasn't there?
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You know, from five years ago it was, you know, oil companies didn't
25:14
want to talk about oil anymore.
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Really.
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They would do everything to not talk about it.
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You had much more activism around this subject and now it's flipped.
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Now it's, it's, yeah, oil's good.
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We need energy for the future.
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Energy security, I get it.
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But there's so much less talk around.
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Climate and climate mitigation.
25:35
What I would like to reiterate to the audience today is just that these climate
25:39
conversations, this momentum continues.
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We heard at London Climate Action Week this year, where, you know, in
25:45
your hometown, attendance doubled.
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Compared to 2024, at this week, and we're just on the cusp of, climate Week
25:55
NYC in New York City in September here in the us And from what I've been hearing,
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there's going to be, one big bank told me unprecedented level of engagement.
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So.
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I think it's hard to get just one simple, clear picture of, and I
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think it depends a lot where you are and who you're talking to.
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It's funny, another colleague said, actually, interestingly, that, that
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although a lot of the old companies externally message that, you know,
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they want to get more oily actually behind the scenes, they're actually
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doubling down on investment into electrification, clean energy,
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decarbonization, CCS, all of this stuff.
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Yeah, it's actually the narrative is slightly different.
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And they're doing those things because it makes economic sense.
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Like that's why I'm so interested in what do the numbers show us?
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What does the data show us?
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And that's why I think the work that Terry is doing with the Climate Center
26:52
of Excellence is so valuable, because you can strip out some of the noise and
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really focus on what the data shows us.
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And, so that's sort of a, a north star for me.
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I had a recent interview on the podcast, with someone named Annikit Shah,
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managing director at Jeffries Group.
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And I love this quote from him.
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He said that, we really need to really focus on data, not vibes.
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So forget all the vibes, forget all the things you're reading in
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the headlines, and just really focus in on what the data shows us.
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And actually a lot of it is quite.
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Encouraging when it comes to, energy transition.
27:31
Well, I mean, that's good.
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Yeah.
27:33
I mean, that's a good point.
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You know, Lindsay, and, you know, to kind of come to you, Terry around, you know, a
27:38
lot of, you know, maybe what I've talked about here is a bit doomsday actually, but
27:41
you know, what, what, what data is there that gives us a more optimistic picture?
27:47
Yes.
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Well, well, I think Lindsay has, has mentioned the data,
27:51
that is more optimistic.
27:53
The shift, apparently underway towards renewable energy driven essentially by
28:01
cost considerations, cost reductions, and the momentum is shifting.
28:07
That's a very positive development and something that we should
28:12
focus upon and embrace.
28:15
But at the same time, that shift is at a minimum influenced.
28:24
By the,
28:28
rhetoric associated with criticizing the climate science that tells us what is
28:36
going to happen with pretty high accuracy.
28:40
And when the rhetoric is shifting towards don't believe the
28:44
climate science, it's alarmist.
28:46
It's, too
28:51
uncertain to make decisions.
28:53
Then the momentum that's leading to this positive development that
28:57
Lindsay mentioned, that momentum could itself face headwinds.
29:03
So that to me is a, a continuing worry.
29:07
I don't want to lose sight of the positive developments, but I want them to continue,
29:13
and when the critique of the underlying basic science might create a reduction
29:20
in the momentum that's very worrisome.
29:25
We flipped back to doomsday there.
29:28
Terry, yeah.
29:30
Yes.
29:31
Sorry.
29:31
I don't mean to to make it doomsday, but we, we want that momentum to
29:36
continue and part of that momentum is, supported by, the underlying science.
29:46
So just want to keep that momentum up.
29:48
What does the underlying science though, say in terms of if we
29:51
continue on the current trajectory?
29:55
What's the world's gonna look like in 2050?
29:58
The science tells us if we don't change behavior, if we don't turn
30:04
the total emissions curve from still increasing and turn that, that
30:11
curve in the opposite direction.
30:13
If we don't do that, then we are going to face a world that,
30:20
we're not prepared to live in.
30:23
And in particular, the less developed economies.
30:29
The poor of the world are extremely poorly prepared to live in that world, and
30:36
that's gonna create additional problems.
30:37
It's gonna create misery for individuals.
30:41
It's going to create possibly migration patterns that more developed countries
30:47
are not prepared to deal with.
30:51
So the, the science tells us we must turn that curve downward.
30:59
There's just no doubt about that whatsoever.
31:02
The policy discussion is how fast and to what degree do
31:08
you turn that curve downward.
31:11
How do you maintain energy affordability?
31:14
Energy security is partially related to how fast you turn that curve
31:18
downward, but the science tells us there's just no doubt about it.
31:22
You must turn the curve.
31:24
And I, I think that that is a great point to, close our discussion.
31:31
I think that we're all in agreement, that it, it's a combination
31:36
of factors, that is vital.
31:40
For, mitigating climate change, but also planning for the future.
31:46
So, Lindsay Hall, Global Head of Thought Leadership at S&P Global, Sustainable1.
31:54
And, Terry Thompson, Chief Science Officer at S&P Global ESG product.
31:59
Thank you so much for joining us.
32:01
For our listeners, if you wanna find out more about the work that,
32:05
either, Terry does, on the ESG side or Lindsay and Sustainable1, please
32:12
go to our website at spglobal.com.
32:17
There's lots of information there.
32:20
You can download our future episodes of the Look Forward Podcast on Spotify.
32:25
The Apple Podcast store or if you would like via YouTube.
32:30
Thanks very much.