Latest / Yaron Brook Show / Capitulation Again?; Russia/Ukraine; Griffin vs Mamdani; Elections; Ted Turner | Yaron Brook Show

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Capitulation Again?; Russia/Ukraine; Griffin vs Mamdani; Elections; Ted Turner | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

0:05
Speaker 1: Nstance. I'll read it and this is.
0:21
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, welcome to your on book show on
0:23
Speaker 2: this Wednesday, May six.
0:28
Speaker 1: Hope everybody's having a fantastic time, a good week. Uh.
0:34
Speaker 2: I finished my classes on my capitalism course at the
0:38
Speaker 2: University of Austin in Texas yesterday. Uh. Seven classes two
0:44
Speaker 2: hours each, all on capitalism. Yesterday was the section on
0:49
Speaker 2: the morality of capitalism. All the students had to read
0:52
Speaker 2: Capitalism then an Ideal by Ironman, and they also had
0:55
Speaker 2: to read a book and about how how the world
0:57
Speaker 2: got rich and and today I'm giving them an exam,
1:04
Speaker 2: so we'll see how they do a two hour exam today.
1:08
Speaker 1: They and three questions.
1:12
Speaker 2: They get to answer two of the three questions in
1:14
Speaker 2: essay essay form. They're gonna do that live in the class,
1:20
Speaker 2: so no use of AI. And I'm looking forward to
1:24
Speaker 2: seeing how they answer the questions and what they got
1:27
Speaker 2: out of the course, what actually sunk in enough to
1:30
Speaker 2: be able to replicate in an essay.
1:33
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm definitely looking forward to that.
1:40
Speaker 2: I try tomorrow to Denver, and I do a talk
1:43
Speaker 2: on Friday and Denver and then I go home on Saturday.
1:45
Speaker 2: So for sure there'll be a show Sunday. I'm hoping
1:48
Speaker 2: they'll be a show tomorrow from Denver. Nothing on Friday,
1:52
Speaker 2: nothing on Saturday, show on Sunday.
1:55
Speaker 1: That's the schedule, all right, anything, I don't think I
2:00
Speaker 1: have any other things.
2:03
Speaker 2: So we can jump right into the news. And really
2:06
Speaker 2: the news, the news here is is dominated by Trump
2:13
Speaker 2: flip flopping, flopping, flip flopping.
2:16
Speaker 1: All over the place. Basically really all over the place.
2:20
Speaker 2: So you know, Trump ordered the military to pause Operation Freedom,
2:27
Speaker 2: Project Freedom, which was supposed to open the straits of
2:30
Speaker 2: Homoes for shipping.
2:32
Speaker 1: It turns out that.
2:35
Speaker 3: For for I guess, a couple of weeks before the
2:39
Speaker 3: Operation Freedom was announced, the US Navy had sent underwater
2:43
Speaker 3: drones to kind of clear a path.
2:46
Speaker 1: It's not clear if they blew up minds or but they.
2:49
Speaker 2: Found a path it was unobstructed, and then they marked
2:53
Speaker 2: that path and told chips to start traveling through it
2:57
Speaker 2: to show that it worked. To US destroyers traverse that
3:02
Speaker 2: path that the underwooter drones had had created. Uh, and
3:08
Speaker 2: then the idea was that other ships would follow anyway,
3:13
Speaker 2: good idea and good execution by the Navy. And then
3:17
Speaker 2: Trump said, no, we're gonna stop this operation Project.
3:26
Speaker 1: Freedom, Project freedom not to why that was the name
3:28
Speaker 1: given to it. Because we're gonna pause it. We're not
3:31
Speaker 1: gonna stop it. We're gonna posit it like we paused
3:33
Speaker 1: the war, like we.
3:34
Speaker 2: Paused you know, my decision to blow them into the
3:38
Speaker 2: Stone Age, like we pause everything else. We're gonna pause
3:41
Speaker 2: it and and we're gonna go back to negotiating table
3:46
Speaker 2: because we're really close to deal, really close to deal,
3:49
Speaker 2: because you know the people in in in in Tehran,
3:54
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, they really want a deal.
3:55
Speaker 1: They're really close. They're willing to do everything we want
3:58
Speaker 1: them to do. It's it's imminent. It's imminent.
4:01
Speaker 2: And Trump has expressed his interest in getting a deal
4:05
Speaker 2: done before he travels to China. I guess in about
4:09
Speaker 2: ten days, Right about ten days, he said there was
4:14
Speaker 2: great progress towards the deal, which he said before. Right,
4:18
Speaker 2: he said over and over and over again as he
4:23
Speaker 2: described it. So, according to according to Axious, and according
4:27
Speaker 2: to Trump Acxious and Trump on the same page, right now,
4:31
Speaker 2: the US and Iran are closer to the deal than
4:33
Speaker 2: any point since the war begun.
4:36
Speaker 1: Here's the outline. This is the outline according to the US.
4:40
Speaker 2: Right, you won freezers in Richmond for up to for
4:44
Speaker 2: up to fifteen years.
4:46
Speaker 1: Hey, he got five years over Obama.
4:49
Speaker 2: Obama, they won enriching, couldn't enrich freezed in enrichment for
4:53
Speaker 2: ten years. Iran ships it's highly enriched uranium to the US.
5:00
Speaker 1: That's good.
5:01
Speaker 2: Eases straight restrictions, not clear what the hell that means,
5:05
Speaker 2: and get sanctioned relief in return. According to what I've seen,
5:10
Speaker 2: I mean, there are a thousand versions running around, but
5:13
Speaker 2: what I've seen is they would agree to some kind
5:16
Speaker 2: of memo, memorandum of agreement to continue to negotiating that
5:21
Speaker 2: had highlights for plan to be negotiated over the next
5:26
Speaker 2: thirty days, and in the meantime, the United States would
5:28
Speaker 2: already unfreeze assets.
5:31
Speaker 1: You remember how.
5:31
Speaker 2: They flipped out when Biden unfrees some Iranian assets, and
5:36
Speaker 2: of course when Obama kind of deal with uranians.
5:40
Speaker 1: Trump is doing the same thing.
5:44
Speaker 2: This is what Trump said, if you run agrees with us,
5:47
Speaker 2: it's over. If they don't, we're going to bomb them
5:50
Speaker 2: all right. But he's been saying that for weeks.
5:54
Speaker 1: On the other hand, Iran state media.
5:57
Speaker 2: And officials in the GC are saying they don't know
6:02
Speaker 2: what Trump's talking about. They haven't agreed to anything. The
6:05
Speaker 2: whole thing they say is market manipulation. Of course, the
6:07
Speaker 2: stock's up, stock markets up. All prices are down. They
6:11
Speaker 2: were down really sharply earlier.
6:13
Speaker 1: They back up a little bit. I'll tell you why
6:15
Speaker 1: in a minute.
6:16
Speaker 2: And according to the Iranians, nothing is actually happening. According
6:23
Speaker 2: to some Iranians. Are the Iranians like the Foreign minister
6:26
Speaker 2: right now is in Beijing. They saying no, no, you know,
6:29
Speaker 2: we're close to their deal. But the people in Iran
6:31
Speaker 2: are saying nothing's happening. Trump's making this all this up right. Yeah,
6:39
Speaker 2: So the Galibalf, who is the speaker of the Iranian parliament,
6:46
Speaker 2: said Iran is winning no matter what happens, and he's right,
6:50
Speaker 2: I think ultimately. I mean, it's shocking to me to
6:52
Speaker 2: say this, but I think it's true. He says, we're
6:55
Speaker 2: not welling militarily, but because the real battlefield really is
7:00
Speaker 2: economic and social. He says, you are holding together, which
7:04
Speaker 2: nobody expected. And you know, Washington generally is operating on
7:09
Speaker 2: bad intelligence and doesn't really know what it's doing.
7:12
Speaker 1: I believe that.
7:15
Speaker 2: And they were at the same time Gulf States Yuee
7:18
Speaker 2: which got attacked yesterday significantly, and the US did nothing
7:22
Speaker 2: about it and said they would do nothing about it,
7:25
Speaker 2: and whose ships still can't pass the Homemost traits and
7:29
Speaker 2: Bahrain and maybe even uh probably in a Katab but
7:33
Speaker 2: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. They're completely furious, pissed off. Right,
7:41
Speaker 2: the US did nothing when Yui was attacked. What does
7:46
Speaker 2: American security guarantees actually mean?
7:49
Speaker 1: What are they worth? In the Trump era?
7:51
Speaker 2: They mean nothing, They're worth nothing. Trump does not abide
7:55
Speaker 2: by his word. He's not His word is not worth
7:58
Speaker 2: the I don't know ink that it's printed on of course,
8:02
Speaker 2: not printed. It just mouthed. He'll say anything. So who
8:10
Speaker 2: knows what's actually going on Trump's I don't know what
8:14
Speaker 2: Trump is doing. I mean, look, Trump is on fundamentally philosophically,
8:20
Speaker 2: Trump is on a primacy of consciousness premise. There's a
8:23
Speaker 2: sense in which he believes that if he says it,
8:27
Speaker 2: it will be so that him saying something makes it true.
8:32
Speaker 2: He's really epistemologically completely.
8:35
Speaker 1: Corrupt and gone. There's essentially which he believes that if
8:40
Speaker 1: he says it, keeps.
8:40
Speaker 2: Repeating it, says it what wills it wishes it demands it,
8:46
Speaker 2: argues for it, yells at it.
8:48
Speaker 1: Then he will get his weight. The Ranians a kind
8:52
Speaker 1: of city bag and watching this clown shit show and going,
8:56
Speaker 1: you know, we'll just wait it out.
8:58
Speaker 2: The more time the better. The more we can delay
9:01
Speaker 2: any potential American attack, the better. We haven't given up
9:05
Speaker 2: anything yet, so we'll just watch Trump do this. The
9:13
Speaker 2: people around Trump, I mean, Rubio yesterday declared the war over.
9:22
Speaker 1: Not clear what that is all about.
9:25
Speaker 2: I guess he said offensive operations over. They could get restarted,
9:29
Speaker 2: but they're over. I guess that's the Peace Congress in
9:31
Speaker 2: terms of the sixty day rule. Again, hard to tell
9:35
Speaker 2: what they are thinking right right now, it looks like
9:40
Speaker 2: the mediators, the Pakistanis, who seem to have Trump's ear
9:44
Speaker 2: and seem to be people are concerned about Israel manipulating
9:48
Speaker 2: American farm policy. It seems to me like Trump is
9:51
Speaker 2: beholden to the Pakistanis, which is bizarre to me because
9:55
Speaker 2: he's bowled into them more than to the Saudis.
9:57
Speaker 1: Uree ors, Israel are America's friends.
10:01
Speaker 2: Pakistani's the enemies of America, you know, the enemies in India.
10:07
Speaker 2: India is much more of a friend to the United
10:08
Speaker 2: States than Pakistani Is. I don't you know, it's completely
10:13
Speaker 2: incoherent what Trump is doing completely incoherent, and ever since that,
10:22
Speaker 2: it's completely incoherent to people around him, who are constantly
10:24
Speaker 2: trying to explain it to the media, but who have
10:26
Speaker 2: no clue what the hell is going on anyway, media
10:29
Speaker 2: is Pakistanis are pushing for a short term memo to
10:34
Speaker 2: guide talks that might take months, that will have overwheund
10:42
Speaker 2: uranium enrichment.
10:43
Speaker 1: And sanctions relief.
10:44
Speaker 2: And as I said, in the meantime, the US is
10:48
Speaker 2: expected to release foesen assets and to send.
10:52
Speaker 1: Billions and billions of dollars to Evon.
10:57
Speaker 2: Now, Trump keeps saying, you know, US could resume bombing,
11:00
Speaker 2: says memo will achieve nothing. None of the war aims
11:04
Speaker 2: will be achieved, zero, zilch, nada that will be negotiated
11:07
Speaker 2: in the future. In the meantime, the United States will
11:09
Speaker 2: back off of all of its threats. And look, if
11:13
Speaker 2: they views really you know, if there's a sense of
11:16
Speaker 2: pause of several months, they're not gonna start bombing again.
11:19
Speaker 1: I mean that would take weeks months to re.
11:21
Speaker 2: Establish all the forces that are there.
11:25
Speaker 1: It's just not happening.
11:30
Speaker 2: It really does seem like Trump is motivated by this
11:32
Speaker 2: trip to China and wants to go to China with
11:37
Speaker 2: a deal, or at least with a memorandum that they
11:39
Speaker 2: might be a deal in the future.
11:45
Speaker 1: Will the deal include the opening.
11:46
Speaker 2: Of the States of Homoes completely without Iwan charging a toll?
11:54
Speaker 2: Very unlikely. Iwan indeed officially launched a website with a
12:00
Speaker 2: new mechanism for governing maritime traffic through the Streates of Homoes.
12:05
Speaker 2: They did this today early this morning. Vessels intended to
12:10
Speaker 2: transfer the streets will receive an email from the Persian
12:13
Speaker 2: Gulf Street Authority outlining the rules and regulations for passage,
12:17
Speaker 2: including how much of a toll they have to pay.
12:21
Speaker 2: Ships are required to adjust their operations according to the
12:25
Speaker 2: framework and obtain a transit permit before crossing the Straits
12:28
Speaker 2: of Homos. In other words, maritime navigation, the principle of
12:34
Speaker 2: freedom of navigation.
12:35
Speaker 1: In the seas has just ended.
12:39
Speaker 2: And you know, unless Trump traverses this, this is a Basically,
12:46
Speaker 2: this is a massive geopolitical loss for the United States
12:50
Speaker 2: and for the world as a whole. There are lots
12:52
Speaker 2: of choke points around the world that they are now
12:54
Speaker 2: going to be questioned about where the countries can now
12:58
Speaker 2: charge tolls, require permits and all of this stuff. So
13:03
Speaker 2: payment of tolls in Iranian real nion dollars. Everything happens
13:11
Speaker 2: within the Iranian banking systems that can be affected by sanctions.
13:17
Speaker 2: Countries the cause that contributed to damages during the war
13:21
Speaker 2: have to pay reparations before obtaining a permit. Countries that
13:27
Speaker 2: sanctioned Iran a block its assets abroad are banned entirely.
13:33
Speaker 2: All the documents use the name Persian Gulf. Right, it's Persian,
13:39
Speaker 2: it's Uranian, it's theirs. Non compliance results in vessels seizure
13:45
Speaker 2: and a find of twenty percent of cargo value. All
13:47
Speaker 2: vessels might follow designated corridors and comply with Uranian enforces instructions.
13:53
Speaker 2: Israeli flagged vessels and any ship going to or from
13:55
Speaker 2: Israel ports are banned. In other words, Iran controls the
14:01
Speaker 2: states of almost, sets the standards, sets the terms, and
14:06
Speaker 2: from Uran's perspective, they do this forever. So not only
14:14
Speaker 2: you have none of the not only, as Rubio announced,
14:18
Speaker 2: the operation is over. None of the war objectives have
14:21
Speaker 2: been achieved, no removal of in which uranium, no elimination forever, forever,
14:28
Speaker 2: not for fifteen years forever of Uron's nuclear program, no
14:31
Speaker 2: constraints on missile production, no end of funding for terrorists,
14:35
Speaker 2: no regime change. But also, you know none of that
14:39
Speaker 2: has been achieved. Wasn't handing them the states and foremost
14:43
Speaker 2: and changing the geopolitics of you know, ships transitting of
14:49
Speaker 2: trade forever because we're sanctioning debility controller. This is from
14:57
Speaker 2: presidents and I know some of you still think he
14:59
Speaker 2: is three D Chess or something like that. You know,
15:04
Speaker 2: this is a president that is demanded an unconditional surrender.
15:07
Speaker 2: On March sixth, said he would reopen the States of
15:11
Speaker 2: Homos no matter what. Several times in March and April
15:17
Speaker 2: demanded a whole to uranium in Richmond Forever, demanded the
15:23
Speaker 2: removal Heidi rich humanium. Now, maybe that'll still happen, But
15:28
Speaker 2: will the centerfuges be destroyed?
15:30
Speaker 1: Will they still have a centerfuges. As long as they
15:32
Speaker 1: have centerfuges, they can still en rich.
15:34
Speaker 2: Uranium at any point in time to whatever level of
15:36
Speaker 2: enrichment they wanted. He demanded in May that they shut
15:43
Speaker 2: down the use of underground nuclear facilities.
15:47
Speaker 1: He accepted a sixty day deadline for a deal that
15:53
Speaker 1: was before there was before the war.
15:57
Speaker 2: He's extended multiple short term multimatums.
16:02
Speaker 1: They never both food anyway, God, I mean unconditional surrender. Yeah.
16:12
Speaker 2: So again, what we have on the table looks like
16:14
Speaker 2: is a fourteen point agreement to end the war. But
16:20
Speaker 2: the Ranians are claiming that there is no such thing.
16:25
Speaker 2: And you know, as part of this, it looks like
16:28
Speaker 2: there will be this memorandum and the US agree to
16:31
Speaker 2: live sanctioned and release Fozen assets.
16:34
Speaker 1: Anyway, we'll see. We don't know the truth. Things we
16:37
Speaker 1: don't know.
16:37
Speaker 2: It's quite possible nobody knows what exactly is going on.
16:44
Speaker 2: These veileys are panicking. They're really really worried. I mean,
16:47
Speaker 2: they're mixed reports right run reports says that Israel is
16:54
Speaker 2: not obviously he's not part of the negotiations, but Nitagneo
16:57
Speaker 2: is constantly calling up people with administration to.
17:00
Speaker 1: Find out what's going on.
17:02
Speaker 2: He, you know, his role is really scared that the
17:08
Speaker 2: the US is going to give in and concede in
17:12
Speaker 2: ways that leave un sanctions lifted, the proxyes intact, and
17:17
Speaker 2: the missile program untouched. Because if you look at the
17:20
Speaker 2: fourteen points, if you look at what Trump is saying,
17:23
Speaker 2: if you look at what people are speculating, he is
17:25
Speaker 2: in agreement.
17:26
Speaker 1: No mention of proxies, no mention of missiles.
17:30
Speaker 2: Is O wants any deal to preserve its freedom to
17:33
Speaker 2: strike regional threats unilaterally, and suppose the Natennia is calling regularly.
17:42
Speaker 2: On the other hand, Nateneo is saying, of course he
17:45
Speaker 2: has to say this. Oh, we're completely in syncle Trump.
17:49
Speaker 2: I talked to Trump almost daily. Everything's coordinated. According to Nintenniello,
17:56
Speaker 2: the shared objectives remain. Trump is going to insist in
17:59
Speaker 2: removing of all all enriched uranium, dismantling of Iran's enrichment capacity,
18:04
Speaker 2: and and they're ready for any kind of scenario if if,
18:10
Speaker 2: if diplomacy fails. Uh, there is still an open question
18:16
Speaker 2: which the story about Nataniello doesn't cover of the proxies
18:20
Speaker 2: and the missiles, and is that part of any kind
18:22
Speaker 2: of proposed deal.
18:24
Speaker 1: Again, we don't know.
18:25
Speaker 2: Nobody, nobody seems to really be providing any information on that.
18:30
Speaker 2: On the good news side, the good news side, you
18:35
Speaker 2: know ISIL supposedly has a cease fire.
18:39
Speaker 1: With Rismola.
18:42
Speaker 2: And and has committed not a bombing north of the Titania,
18:45
Speaker 2: though it does periodically well. Just a few minutes ago,
18:47
Speaker 2: about about an hour ago, the idea I carried out
18:51
Speaker 2: a strike in Berout. This is the first time they've
18:54
Speaker 2: carried out a strike in be Roots since the so
18:57
Speaker 2: called ceasefire. These I can be rute targeted the command
19:01
Speaker 2: of Risbella's Rudwan force, that's the kind of risbel A
19:05
Speaker 2: special forces. And supposedly this was done in coordination with
19:14
Speaker 2: the Americans, that is, the Americans gave it a green light.
19:17
Speaker 2: Now I'm hoping, I'm hopeful that this will piss off
19:19
Speaker 2: the Ranians, and the Ranians will so no, you know,
19:24
Speaker 2: no to UH any deal with America. I mean, my
19:28
Speaker 2: hope is not with Trump. I don't trust Trump one bit.
19:34
Speaker 2: I think he is willing to betray America, willing to
19:36
Speaker 2: betray Israel, willing to betray his own forces, willing to
19:41
Speaker 2: betray his own.
19:42
Speaker 1: I was gonna say principles, but he has not his.
19:44
Speaker 2: Own claimed goals. My hope is that the Iranians are
19:50
Speaker 2: so irrationally stupid that they keep saying no to Trump.
19:54
Speaker 1: Where they put him in the corner where the only
19:56
Speaker 1: option he has is to attack.
19:57
Speaker 2: He compromises he compromises, but no, no compromise appeased as
20:01
Speaker 2: the Iranians, and then he has.
20:02
Speaker 1: No option but to attack him. That is my hope.
20:05
Speaker 1: So far, so good.
20:07
Speaker 2: Trump keeps backing down more, but the Ruanians keeps saying no.
20:10
Speaker 1: No, no.
20:11
Speaker 2: So let's hope the Ranians stay focused on their own
20:17
Speaker 2: suicide and they say no to every deal Trump throws
20:20
Speaker 2: their way, and as a consequence, there's no deal and
20:26
Speaker 2: fighting resumes.
20:28
Speaker 1: That is my hope.
20:30
Speaker 2: I am hopeful for war in a sense that I'm
20:35
Speaker 2: hopeful for continued destruction of the Iranian regime, a military
20:42
Speaker 2: forced opening of the straits of farmers, and a continued
20:48
Speaker 2: destruction of the infrastructure in Iran, the leadership infrastructure, the
20:52
Speaker 2: killing of leaders, as many IRGC troops as possible, besiege troops.
20:57
Speaker 1: And then again I'm hopeful for ultimately for a.
21:03
Speaker 2: Uprising of the Iranian of the Iranian people, raising up
21:08
Speaker 2: the Ranian people against this regime.
21:11
Speaker 1: After it is so dramatically.
21:13
Speaker 2: Weakened that that they have an easy shot at it.
21:18
Speaker 1: That's my hope.
21:21
Speaker 2: All right, Let's see, we talked yesterday about Putin and
21:28
Speaker 2: and I just wanna, I wanna uh cover this again
21:32
Speaker 2: and and uh and kind of uh.
21:35
Speaker 1: Emphasize a few points.
21:37
Speaker 2: There's a good article up ad actually editorial in the
21:40
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal today.
21:42
Speaker 1: Or a couple of days ago.
21:43
Speaker 2: It was a couple of days ago in the Wall
21:44
Speaker 2: Street Journal by Walter Russell Meade from policy expert, about
21:50
Speaker 2: about Putin. I mean, and and he makes this argument.
21:52
Speaker 2: He says, look, not that long ago. Putin was considered
21:58
Speaker 2: one of the most successful leaders in the world. He
22:02
Speaker 2: seemed untouchable, and he was a guy who basically solidified
22:08
Speaker 2: in control over Russia.
22:10
Speaker 1: He had no challenges.
22:15
Speaker 2: He had basically outwitted the West over and over and
22:18
Speaker 2: over again. He humiliated them with the two thousand and
22:22
Speaker 2: eight invasion of Georgia.
22:23
Speaker 1: They did nothing.
22:24
Speaker 2: In twenty fourteen seizure of Crimea and much of Donbas,
22:28
Speaker 2: they did nothing.
22:31
Speaker 1: Then, you know, he supported.
22:32
Speaker 2: Asad in Syria and established a significant military presence in Syria,
22:38
Speaker 2: which expanded in influence across the Middle East.
22:41
Speaker 1: So he was a power broker in the Middle East.
22:44
Speaker 2: And in spite of the use of Russian power to
22:47
Speaker 2: sustain Asad, and in spite of Asad's strengths and use
22:53
Speaker 2: of chemical weapons and so on, Obama did nothing.
22:55
Speaker 1: Trump did nothing. Putin was solid in the Middle East.
23:02
Speaker 2: He managed to defend Belarus's president Lukashenko against a number
23:07
Speaker 2: of popular uprisings or protests. He then managed to displace
23:13
Speaker 2: French and American presence and power across much of francis
23:20
Speaker 2: former colonial empire in Africa. We talked about this yesterday, Sahal,
23:26
Speaker 2: the South Sahara, places like Mali, and he was on
23:34
Speaker 2: the way to making Russia great again. And then he
23:40
Speaker 2: made a big mistake. He assumed, and this is straight
23:46
Speaker 2: out of this op ed.
23:46
Speaker 1: He assumed, and this is true. He assumed Ukraine.
23:49
Speaker 2: Wasn't a real country. He assumed Ukraine wouldn't fight. He
23:53
Speaker 2: assumed it would be easy to take them over, that
23:56
Speaker 2: ultimately the Russian speaking Ukrainians would side with Russussia and
24:00
Speaker 2: the rest wouldn't care enough to fight, that its government
24:05
Speaker 2: was weak and hollow and would crumble. It turned out
24:10
Speaker 2: completely wrong. The reality is that a significant number, an
24:16
Speaker 2: overwhelming majority, of Ukrainians were willing to fight for their country,
24:22
Speaker 2: that their leader, Zelenski turned out to be a spectacularly
24:26
Speaker 2: gifted politician and a pretty good diplomat who rallied the
24:31
Speaker 2: country and rallied the world around Ukrainian Ukraine's cause, and
24:35
Speaker 2: as a consequence, Russia's achieved very little. A war which
24:41
Speaker 2: was supposed to at most last a few weeks is
24:44
Speaker 2: now going into what it's fourth you know, it's just
24:48
Speaker 2: into its fifth year. Russia is completely stalled. There is
24:53
Speaker 2: a stale, mad Russian army has no momentum. Even if
24:56
Speaker 2: it gains momentum, its momentum is so slow it will
25:00
Speaker 2: go nowhere. One point three to one point five Russians
25:05
Speaker 2: have either been killed or significantly injured during this crisis.
25:09
Speaker 1: In the meantime, one point five of Russia's most.
25:11
Speaker 2: Productive individuals have left the country in order not to
25:15
Speaker 2: be part of this war effort. And you know, it's
25:21
Speaker 2: so bad that Ukraine is bombing Russian cities a thousand
25:27
Speaker 2: miles inland, and Putin's grip and power and you know,
25:36
Speaker 2: and the idea of Russian greatness is slip sliding away.
25:42
Speaker 2: And of course this is not only happening in Ukraine.
25:46
Speaker 2: Victor Auban, who was Putin's number one ally in Russia,
25:52
Speaker 2: is somebody who constantly advocated for Russia's position and in
25:57
Speaker 2: support of Russia in Europe, has lost a major election
26:03
Speaker 2: and he lost to somebody who is.
26:04
Speaker 1: An ally of the EU. The EU right now.
26:09
Speaker 2: Is actually mounting an investigation into all the Russian dark
26:14
Speaker 2: money that flowed through Hungary, flowed through Oban's administration, into
26:19
Speaker 2: European businesses and political silkas, and influenced politics in Europe.
26:25
Speaker 2: And the reality is that Europe has divided it as
26:29
Speaker 2: hateful and as inefficient and ineffective as they are. Have
26:32
Speaker 2: rallied around Ukraine, and in spite of the United States
26:35
Speaker 2: backing off of Ukraine and betraying Ukraine, the Europeans have
26:40
Speaker 2: stepped up shockingly.
26:42
Speaker 1: Nobody expected that, certainly not Russia. But it doesn't end there.
26:49
Speaker 1: Putin's influence.
26:50
Speaker 2: Russia's influence across the world is fading.
26:56
Speaker 1: Look at Armenia and Azerbaijan.
26:58
Speaker 2: Armenia was a Russian ally, Russia committed to Armenian security,
27:04
Speaker 2: and yet in a war a couple of years ago,
27:07
Speaker 2: as a Bijan took territory from Armenia territory, they claimed
27:10
Speaker 2: it was theirs and Russia did nothing. So Armenia is
27:15
Speaker 2: now fully cooperating with the West, has basically abandoned its
27:19
Speaker 2: commitment around Russia and both it and as a Rajian
27:24
Speaker 2: are both integrating into the West. Some Central Asian republics
27:32
Speaker 2: which Russia dominated. These are former former Soviet Union republics.
27:40
Speaker 1: Now have closer ties to China than to Russia.
27:42
Speaker 2: Indeed, China is much more likely to dominate Central Asia
27:48
Speaker 2: than Russia is in the future. China is, relatively speaking,
27:52
Speaker 2: a growing power as Russia is shrinking. There's a bunch
27:57
Speaker 2: of rail a bunch of pipelines being planned from Central
28:00
Speaker 2: Asia oil and gas fields to Europe bypassing Russia all together.
28:08
Speaker 2: If you go to the Middle East, well, we know
28:11
Speaker 2: what happened to Basha La Lasa. He's somewhere in Moscow,
28:17
Speaker 2: but he's lost power. Russia has lost all the influence
28:22
Speaker 2: in Syria and has basically had to retreat from the
28:28
Speaker 2: Middle East completely. You've got a war going on the
28:31
Speaker 2: Middle East and Russia has no impact and no influence on.
28:36
Speaker 1: You know. In terms of Africa, we talked about this yesterday.
28:40
Speaker 2: Russia has been humiliated by ISIS and Arkaeda in Mali,
28:44
Speaker 2: and African governments are rethinking they reliance.
28:48
Speaker 1: On Russian troops to help them survive.
28:55
Speaker 2: Russia is in decline, Russian economy is in Tata's it's
29:00
Speaker 2: quality of life, stand of living has been declining since
29:02
Speaker 2: the war begun, but it's getting worse and worse now.
29:05
Speaker 1: It can't be evaded. Inflation is high, interest rates are
29:08
Speaker 1: through the roof, the rubul is plummeted.
29:13
Speaker 2: You know, the European population, the white population of Russia
29:18
Speaker 2: is actually shrinking as birth rates and emigration out of
29:22
Speaker 2: Russia are taking a toll. Russians do not have babies.
29:26
Speaker 2: But who does have babies? The Muslims in Russia, you know.
29:31
Speaker 2: Tukakossa might claim that Russia is the last white Christian nation,
29:35
Speaker 2: but Russia is faster on the path to being dominated
29:39
Speaker 2: by Muslims than there's any country in Europe, and the
29:47
Speaker 2: Russian republics many of the Muslim hotbeds of activism towards
29:55
Speaker 2: potentially one day spitting splitting off from Russia. Putin has
30:03
Speaker 2: destroyed whatever Russia had is gone. This Ukraine War turned
30:08
Speaker 2: out to be an unbelievable, unbelievably bad decision.
30:13
Speaker 1: But beyond that, all of his bets, as is.
30:16
Speaker 2: True of most of Theiritarians, most of his bets have
30:19
Speaker 2: gone bad.
30:21
Speaker 1: All of his actions have turned negative.
30:26
Speaker 2: So it makes sense that Putin is tightening security, spending
30:32
Speaker 2: more time in underground bunkers, afraid to go outside, and
30:37
Speaker 2: afraid of an internal coup.
30:42
Speaker 1: You know, Russia was always in decline.
30:47
Speaker 2: What Putin has managed to do is accelerate that decline significantly.
30:53
Speaker 2: Now you can see that on what's going on right now,
30:55
Speaker 2: you can see the initiative in this war shifted significantly
30:59
Speaker 2: to Ukraine.
31:01
Speaker 1: Russia's wants to have the.
31:02
Speaker 2: May ninth parade without tanks, without big military exhibit for
31:09
Speaker 2: the first time since since the victory you know, over
31:15
Speaker 2: the Nazison World War two way scaled back parade. But
31:21
Speaker 2: to do that, he has basically declared a cease fire
31:25
Speaker 2: on that day, in the day before May eighth and
31:28
Speaker 2: May ninth. Zelensky responded it said, if you're gonna want
31:34
Speaker 2: to cease fire, let's start it now.
31:39
Speaker 1: Russia responded to Zelensky's.
31:42
Speaker 2: Cease fire proposal, plus the fact that Ukraine has been
31:47
Speaker 2: has launched drones and attacked Moscow a few days ago
31:51
Speaker 2: with a massive drone attack and bombing attack yesterday that
31:57
Speaker 2: killed at least twenty seven people, injured about seventy civilians,
32:00
Speaker 2: basically mainly in the city whose name I cannot pronounce
32:05
Speaker 2: in the south of Ukraine, southeast of Ukraine. Uh, you know,
32:13
Speaker 2: basically targeting civilian, civilian buildings. This is on the day
32:19
Speaker 2: that Zelensky asked for cease fire, the day that Putin asked.
32:23
Speaker 1: For cease fire for May eight to ninth. Ah, you know.
32:29
Speaker 2: And of course, what is what is the chance of
32:34
Speaker 2: Zelensky is now going to agree to a to a
32:37
Speaker 2: cease fire The Defence ministry, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry has
32:41
Speaker 2: said Russia violated the ceasefire regime and carried out a
32:45
Speaker 2: series of attacks on Ukraine. These actions by aggressa by
32:48
Speaker 2: the aggressor nullify the cease fire for May ninth announced
32:52
Speaker 2: by Putin.
32:54
Speaker 1: So Ukraine is basically saying we might bomb off while
33:00
Speaker 1: you're having your parade. In the meantime, Moscow.
33:05
Speaker 2: Is created a call something called a ring of fear,
33:10
Speaker 2: like they brought in massive numbers of air defense systems
33:14
Speaker 2: from all over Russia to surround Moscow to defend the parade.
33:21
Speaker 1: Now, if in spite of all that.
33:25
Speaker 2: The Ukrainians can still get in a drone and cause damage,
33:30
Speaker 2: that'll be a massive, massive repudiation of a Putin In
33:36
Speaker 2: Russian's a.
33:37
Speaker 1: Defense system of everything. But what this has also.
33:40
Speaker 2: Done is basically leave the rest of Russia undefended. I
33:45
Speaker 2: mean right now, because all the air defense systems seem
33:48
Speaker 2: to be according to some reports, at least around Moscow.
33:52
Speaker 2: The rest of Russia is defenseless, and you could expect
33:56
Speaker 2: the Ukrainians to take full advantage of that.
33:58
Speaker 1: They have their new Kusma, they have their drones.
34:03
Speaker 2: You know, it's going to be really interesting to see
34:05
Speaker 2: what the Ukrainians tease to target over the next few.
34:08
Speaker 1: Days, including on May ninth.
34:10
Speaker 2: I would expect the Ukrainians to do something symbolic, to
34:14
Speaker 2: do something as the entire world.
34:16
Speaker 1: Is watching and all of Russia is watching.
34:22
Speaker 2: I think there's some Russians that would celebrate Ukrainians attacking
34:26
Speaker 2: Moscow because I think a lot of Russians have the
34:29
Speaker 2: sense that people in Moscow, whose kids are not fighting
34:33
Speaker 2: on the front line, I'm not feeling this war, whereas
34:36
Speaker 2: the rest of the country is economically and because it's
34:40
Speaker 2: their people who are sent to the front, not the
34:43
Speaker 2: elites in Moscow, in Saint Petersburg. And I think a
34:46
Speaker 2: lot of Russians would would like the Moscovites to feel
34:51
Speaker 2: a little bit about what the war is like. Let
34:59
Speaker 2: me just see what what's going on?
35:03
Speaker 1: Right?
35:04
Speaker 2: Just a reminder everybody to ask questions do stickers and
35:09
Speaker 2: questions are great in particular, we don't have a lot
35:11
Speaker 2: of questions right now because that way you get to
35:13
Speaker 2: shape the shape the content of the show, and I
35:21
Speaker 2: get to answer all the questions. I really do answer
35:23
Speaker 2: all the questions. So please ask questions twenty and fifty dollars.
35:29
Speaker 2: Questions are particularly valued for obviously reasons and get us
35:33
Speaker 2: closer to the goal faster, so please consider doing that.
35:38
Speaker 1: Stickers are good too, without a question. All right, yesterday
35:41
Speaker 1: there were.
35:42
Speaker 2: Elections in Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan. Indiana had state Senate elections,
35:49
Speaker 2: so local elections. The reason Indiana stands out is because
35:53
Speaker 2: in Indiana, you remember Indiana, Trump wanted Indiana to Jerrymanda
36:00
Speaker 2: and to secure I think one additional one additional House
36:09
Speaker 2: seat for Republicans.
36:10
Speaker 1: They wanted.
36:12
Speaker 2: Trump wanted the Indiana legislature to approve a jurymandering map
36:16
Speaker 2: that would give they would give the Republicans one at
36:22
Speaker 2: least one more seat, and Indiana Republicans shockingly resisted and said, no,
36:29
Speaker 2: I mean this is we don't do this in other
36:32
Speaker 2: insensus years. It's wrong, it is not the way we
36:36
Speaker 2: do politics, and they refused. Trump threatened to back candidates
36:44
Speaker 2: in primaries to replace the senators who voted against him,
36:50
Speaker 2: and he did, and yesterday those elections were held, and
36:54
Speaker 2: indeed Trump's candidates mostly won. I think of the of
36:59
Speaker 2: the seven five of the president's candidates one these are
37:05
Speaker 2: candidates that are going to.
37:08
Speaker 1: Do whatever Trump says.
37:11
Speaker 2: What this shows, more than anything is that Trump still
37:14
Speaker 2: controls the Republican Party. At least he controls the people
37:20
Speaker 2: who vote in primaries, who votes in primaries, the committed,
37:25
Speaker 2: the activists, MAGA, and Trump still controls them. When he
37:30
Speaker 2: endorses a candidate, that candidate wins. So Trump still has
37:35
Speaker 2: a grip, a solid grip, in spite of all all
37:38
Speaker 2: the criticism, in in spite of the fact that he
37:41
Speaker 2: is at this point, according to Poe's, the most unpopular
37:44
Speaker 2: president ever, significantly more unpopular than he was in the
37:47
Speaker 2: first term. Uh, he actually gets his people elected in
37:55
Speaker 2: Republican primaries, which is you know, shocking, disappointing, and in
38:03
Speaker 2: a sense suicide for the Republican Party. If indeed Trump
38:06
Speaker 2: is this unpopular, his candidates in the future are going
38:11
Speaker 2: to be unpopular, and you know, the Republicans are likely
38:15
Speaker 2: to lose more rather than less. In Michigan, there was
38:20
Speaker 2: again a state Senate seat in a bellweather district that
38:26
Speaker 2: had a Democrat running against a Republican.
38:30
Speaker 1: Uh.
38:31
Speaker 2: And this was considered again a kind of a bellwether,
38:34
Speaker 2: kind of a predictive of how things are shaping up.
38:38
Speaker 2: And in in this big swing state Michigan, a the
38:51
Speaker 2: Democrat won went easily against a Republican that was backed
38:56
Speaker 2: by Trump. So we actually didn't I didn't do it comfortably.
39:04
Speaker 1: It was a close. It was close, but.
39:10
Speaker 2: Oh wait a minute, you know this is a sorry,
39:12
Speaker 2: this is a district in which Harris beat Trump by
39:14
Speaker 2: one point and uh, and the Democrat beat the Republican.
39:20
Speaker 1: By a significant margin, by a significant margin.
39:24
Speaker 2: Now it's turned out that in all the special elections
39:28
Speaker 2: out there this season the last six months, Democrats are
39:32
Speaker 2: won all of them. Anyway, it was close, Democrats are won,
39:36
Speaker 2: and and people are suggesting that is reflective of what's
39:39
Speaker 2: gonna happen in the miditerm elections. And finally, in Ohio,
39:44
Speaker 2: what happened yesterday was was predictable.
39:46
Speaker 1: That is uh. Uh.
39:47
Speaker 2: The the the Republican who was expected to w w
39:49
Speaker 2: to win Vivic and the Democrat who was expected to win,
39:54
Speaker 2: uh Amy Acton. I think uh they both won their primaries.
39:59
Speaker 2: Now it's going to be battle between Ramaswami Vivic and
40:03
Speaker 2: Amy Acting. And this is Ohio is a solidly and
40:08
Speaker 2: ever moving in that direction, Republican majority state.
40:13
Speaker 1: So you would think that.
40:15
Speaker 2: VIVID would win this easily, but that is indeed not
40:19
Speaker 2: the case. That is right now polls are showing a
40:21
Speaker 2: pretty even match and actually Amy Acting a little ahead.
40:26
Speaker 2: And I think the reason for that is the fact
40:28
Speaker 2: that there are a lot of conservative Republicans who won't
40:31
Speaker 2: vote for Vivic, So it's likely Republicans turnout will be low.
40:36
Speaker 2: He's not going to be able to get as many
40:38
Speaker 2: Republicans to vote for him.
40:39
Speaker 1: You know, lots of reasons for that. One.
40:41
Speaker 2: He's Indian, and Republicans are right now pretty anti Indian, particularly.
40:49
Speaker 1: The out there. He is pro tech, pro AI, pro
40:56
Speaker 1: data centers. There's a bunch of Republican conservatives out.
41:01
Speaker 2: There who hate AI and and and and and don't
41:04
Speaker 2: want any data centers built, and they might not vote
41:07
Speaker 2: for Vivic.
41:09
Speaker 1: Vivic supports Israel. There's a good chance.
41:14
Speaker 2: There's a significant number of Republicans who don't and won't
41:16
Speaker 2: vote for him. As a consequence, Vivic is generally particularly
41:21
Speaker 2: running for Ohio pro markets, free markets. There's a significant
41:26
Speaker 2: number of Republicans who are not and they won't vote it.
41:31
Speaker 2: So it's likely that Democrats will all show up and
41:35
Speaker 2: Republicans will not, and that'll make it a very close race.
41:39
Speaker 2: So that's one to watch in November. I hope Vivic wins.
41:43
Speaker 2: He's by father better and and actually in his campaign
41:47
Speaker 2: for the governor of Ohio he's been quite good. And
41:50
Speaker 2: his his arguments against heritage Americans and his uh, you know,
41:55
Speaker 2: arguments for in favor of of of of a better
41:59
Speaker 2: culture and you know, in favor of legal immigration have
42:03
Speaker 2: been really good and refreshing for Republicans.
42:06
Speaker 1: So I hope, I hope he wins. But again, it's
42:10
Speaker 1: gonna be close in the state that shouldn't be close
42:12
Speaker 1: at all. Shouldn't be close at all, all Right, we.
42:22
Speaker 2: Talked again about this story as well, Ken Griffith and Mamdani.
42:25
Speaker 2: Remember Mamdanni did the video standing in front of Ken
42:28
Speaker 2: Griffith's two hundred and thirty eight million dollar condo saying
42:32
Speaker 2: since people who don't live in their condos full time
42:36
Speaker 2: or a significant amount of time in New York, we're
42:38
Speaker 2: gonna have a special tax on them and take their money.
42:41
Speaker 1: And you know, pretty anti rich message.
42:44
Speaker 2: And sit at all the company that Griffith runs, I
42:48
Speaker 2: had a CFO I think, distributed an email basically articulating
42:53
Speaker 2: all the ways and Ken Giffith helps the state of
42:56
Speaker 2: the City of New York and then threatening to abandon
42:59
Speaker 2: the city, that is, not to build a building that
43:01
Speaker 2: they that they're planning to build.
43:03
Speaker 1: In New York City.
43:06
Speaker 2: Anyway, Griffins, you know, double double up on that. He
43:11
Speaker 2: was at the Milken Conference in Los Angeles. Uh, and
43:15
Speaker 2: he he said things. You know, he said, Uh, Mamdani's
43:19
Speaker 2: making it very clear New York doesn't wan doesn't welcome success.
43:25
Speaker 2: And uh, you know he he called the video that
43:29
Speaker 2: Mamdani did creepy and weird.
43:32
Speaker 1: Uh.
43:32
Speaker 2: And the thought that the fact that Mam Donnie did
43:35
Speaker 2: this video not that far from where the CEO of
43:38
Speaker 2: United Healthcare was fatally shot. Uh, kind of fightening and
43:44
Speaker 2: his whole suggestion about the wealthy and so on.
43:47
Speaker 1: Uh.
43:49
Speaker 2: He also talked about the fact that there's more and
43:52
Speaker 2: more advocacy in a sense for violence and and uh
43:55
Speaker 2: and uh extremism as he called it, and a fighting
43:59
Speaker 2: that ynamic, which he said, for example, led to the
44:02
Speaker 2: fact that there's been three attempts to assassinate Donald Trump,
44:08
Speaker 2: you know, so he he's going afterwards, and then he said, look,
44:13
Speaker 2: we're still having internal discussions inside. Said it all but
44:17
Speaker 2: whether we're going to build, whether we're going to build
44:20
Speaker 2: in New York. He added, we went to Miami and
44:24
Speaker 2: revised a building plan to make a bigger office building.
44:28
Speaker 2: He's constructing a fifty four story tower in Florida. He said,
44:34
Speaker 2: maybe we'll just double up in Miami and not building
44:37
Speaker 2: New York. So he's trying to put pressure on Mamdani.
44:42
Speaker 2: The reality is, though it's almost certainly that he will
44:46
Speaker 2: build in New York. They've already broken ground on the
44:50
Speaker 2: site of where they're building, and you know, he has
44:56
Speaker 2: committed a significant amount of his money to the building,
44:59
Speaker 2: four hundred million dollar loan to the project. They've teamed
45:03
Speaker 2: up with a realty trust, and they expect Senator expects
45:09
Speaker 2: to be the anchor tenant in this building, taking up
45:13
Speaker 2: eight hundred and fifty thousand square feet.
45:15
Speaker 1: This is on three hundred and fifty Park Avenue, so
45:18
Speaker 1: prime Manhattan real estate.
45:21
Speaker 2: So you know we will see demolition, as I said,
45:26
Speaker 2: has already started.
45:28
Speaker 1: They are committed. But he's threatening and Mumdanie.
45:34
Speaker 2: Now, as I said last time, I wish he took
45:37
Speaker 2: a more assertive stance. I wish he spent more time
45:40
Speaker 2: defending his right to his own money, defending his right
45:44
Speaker 2: to his property lamb blasting Mucdannie's confiscation of his money
45:51
Speaker 2: and you know, with his tax on his condo, instead
45:54
Speaker 2: of just articulating his utilitarian benefits the city of New York.
45:58
Speaker 2: I'm glad he's at least fighting back, but he needs
46:02
Speaker 2: better tools or one of the things he's doing.
46:04
Speaker 1: One of the things he said at the Milking conference.
46:06
Speaker 2: He's said he's willing to buy every high school student
46:09
Speaker 2: in New York City a copy of the book Animal
46:12
Speaker 2: Farm And if I'm done, he will send him the
46:15
Speaker 2: address of all the schools.
46:16
Speaker 1: He will have those books shipped to all the schools.
46:19
Speaker 2: The Animal Farmer is, of course an anti Stalinist book.
46:23
Speaker 2: It's an anti communist Stalinist book written by Joe Joewell.
46:29
Speaker 1: But here's the.
46:30
Speaker 2: Thing, Ken Griffin, that you need to realize who is
46:38
Speaker 2: the author of Animal Farm?
46:43
Speaker 1: What were his politics? What was the politics of Joe Joewell?
46:49
Speaker 1: Oh was a socialist?
46:52
Speaker 2: So yeah, he was anti stalinism, he was on anti
46:59
Speaker 2: dictatorship in a thoritarianism. But he was definitely a socialist
47:04
Speaker 2: and definitely a democratic socialist, the kind Mumdanni claims he is.
47:11
Speaker 2: So I'm not sure you're fighting, Mumdanni by promoting Joe Jowell.
47:23
Speaker 2: If you want the kids in the schools to actually
47:27
Speaker 2: learn an alternative set of ideas, how about senning them
47:30
Speaker 2: anthem or if you want a small book or atle
47:32
Speaker 2: shrugged that would make much stronger statement, much stronger statement.
47:42
Speaker 2: All right, um, Finally, this morning it was announced that
47:49
Speaker 2: Ted Turner. Ted Turner died at the age of eighty seven.
47:56
Speaker 2: I think a few years ago was announced that he
47:58
Speaker 2: had a form of dementia and so he he finally.
48:04
Speaker 1: Succumbed to it.
48:07
Speaker 2: Turner was was quite a character, a swash buckling media titan.
48:14
Speaker 2: The Wall Street Jonal describes him as and I think
48:17
Speaker 2: that's uh, that's quite reasonable. He grew up, you know,
48:22
Speaker 2: lower middle class. I think his his father owned a
48:24
Speaker 2: billboard business that was losing money and and and unsuccessful.
48:30
Speaker 2: His father actually committed suicide. Uh and uh and uh
48:36
Speaker 2: you know uh. Ted Turner inherited the business from him
48:39
Speaker 2: when his father committed suicide, turned it around, made the
48:44
Speaker 2: company profitable. He then used it as a platform to
48:49
Speaker 2: buy a local small TV station, which again was losing money.
48:57
Speaker 2: He within two years made it profitable, launched it ultimately
49:02
Speaker 2: is WTBS as a as a major cable and satellite station.
49:11
Speaker 2: Uh you know, made it hugely successful, landed up being
49:18
Speaker 2: a real pioneer when it came to cable cable TV.
49:22
Speaker 2: Launched invented the the the real invented the idea really globally,
49:28
Speaker 2: He came up with the idea of twenty four our
49:30
Speaker 2: News and launched CNN.
49:34
Speaker 1: And made it.
49:35
Speaker 2: Into a massive success to be emulated by Fox and
49:39
Speaker 2: by Sky and by many many many others all around
49:43
Speaker 2: the world. He ultimately turned his Turner Broadcasting Systems TBS
49:51
Speaker 2: into a television movie giant.
49:57
Speaker 1: He uh he uh.
49:59
Speaker 2: Ultimately, he sold it in nineteen ninety five to Time
50:01
Speaker 2: Warner got out.
50:06
Speaker 1: You know that sold to AOL.
50:09
Speaker 2: That was not good because once it merged with AOL,
50:15
Speaker 2: the stock plummeted by eighty percent say his networth decline significantly.
50:22
Speaker 2: He was constantly fights with people like Rupert Murdoch some
50:27
Speaker 2: the Redstone about who would dominate cable tv. But collectively
50:33
Speaker 2: as a group in that competition, in those fights, right fights,
50:39
Speaker 2: not in the fifth not in the fourth sense, but
50:41
Speaker 2: in the business sense.
50:44
Speaker 1: They they made cable TV what it is.
50:49
Speaker 2: They heavily invested, They created new channels, They created the
50:52
Speaker 2: idea of consumer subscriptions.
50:54
Speaker 1: They changed the world, changed the world. And Ted.
51:01
Speaker 2: Ten despite being a massive rival of Murdoch, both philosophically,
51:06
Speaker 2: politically and business wise and I think personalities, they almost
51:10
Speaker 2: got into fit fight fist fights a couple of times.
51:13
Speaker 2: I mean, Murdoch said on Wednesday his impact was as
51:18
Speaker 2: a trial blazer has left an inalible mark on our
51:21
Speaker 2: cultural landscape. He was a great American and friend.
51:26
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, he.
51:28
Speaker 2: Was a really promotive satellite technology and cable technology.
51:35
Speaker 1: And you know, the other.
51:37
Speaker 2: Network he was responsible was TNT that still exists out
51:41
Speaker 2: there is really an alternative to the Big three, and
51:43
Speaker 2: of course the big one was CNN, and CNN really
51:48
Speaker 2: became big.
51:49
Speaker 1: Because of the first I Rock War and the OJ Simpson.
51:52
Speaker 2: Trial where they had live coverage, you know, twenty four
51:56
Speaker 2: to seven basically of those events. Now, Turner was also
52:02
Speaker 2: a big time philanthropist. He was quite a lefty. Ultimately,
52:06
Speaker 2: he was a big time philanthropist. He gave a remember
52:09
Speaker 2: the day he did this, He gave a billion dollars,
52:12
Speaker 2: which at the time was unheard of as a gift
52:16
Speaker 2: to a United Nations foundation.
52:19
Speaker 1: Which is should I thought was just horrific.
52:22
Speaker 2: And horrible to give money to anything controlled by the
52:25
Speaker 2: United Nations, but it kind of fit into kind of
52:29
Speaker 2: his view of the world.
52:30
Speaker 1: He was also a big time environmentalist.
52:33
Speaker 2: He became the largest private owner of land in the
52:36
Speaker 2: United States for quite a while. He also owned a
52:40
Speaker 2: lot of land in Argentina. He on this land, He
52:45
Speaker 2: many of this land. Much of this land he grew bison.
52:49
Speaker 2: He actually has a restaurant chain that sells bison burgers
52:55
Speaker 2: all the bison grown on his land. He was a
53:00
Speaker 2: must be married to leftist icon Jane Fonda, and you
53:09
Speaker 2: know so yes, his leftism included extended into his love life.
53:18
Speaker 2: He considered a presidential run in nineteen nineties while he
53:22
Speaker 2: was married to Jane Fonda.
53:23
Speaker 1: But backed off in the end. In the end of
53:26
Speaker 1: that anyway.
53:28
Speaker 2: Ted Turner an American entrepreneur, incredible success story. He also,
53:31
Speaker 2: by the way, was a sportsman. He won the He
53:35
Speaker 2: was an incredible yachtsman.
53:38
Speaker 1: You know, he won the.
53:38
Speaker 2: Nineteen seventy four America's Cup. Well not the nineteen seventy four,
53:42
Speaker 2: he won in nineteen seventy seven. He won the Cup
53:45
Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy seven. He said, I ran my company
53:50
Speaker 2: the same way I ran my boat. I found the
53:52
Speaker 2: best people I could to run our business while I
53:55
Speaker 2: stepped back to keep an eye on an overwall strategy
53:58
Speaker 2: and what our next move should be.
54:01
Speaker 1: So a real entrepreneur.
54:03
Speaker 2: You disagree with him on philanthropy, disagree with him politically, ideologically,
54:09
Speaker 2: but you can't you can't argue with his unbelievable success,
54:14
Speaker 2: his innovation, his entrepreneurial spirit. And these are kind of
54:19
Speaker 2: people who built this country and have immense respect for
54:23
Speaker 2: him as a businessman. And he you know, he proved,
54:28
Speaker 2: he proved unbelievably able when it came when it came
54:31
Speaker 2: to that.
54:31
Speaker 1: So yep, all right, that, my friends, is the news
54:38
Speaker 1: on this Wednesday, May sixth Uh and uh.
54:51
Speaker 2: All right, all right, thank you guys, and let's move
55:00
Speaker 2: on to our answering questions segment of the show.
55:04
Speaker 1: Remember we have targets.
55:06
Speaker 2: Were short of our first hour targets, so please consider
55:09
Speaker 2: doing a super chat or a sticker twenty dollars questions
55:15
Speaker 2: in particular, they get priority, but they also also.
55:20
Speaker 1: Help us reach the goal faster. We've got a few stickers.
55:26
Speaker 2: Oily and Bonnie, thank you for the sticker, and Roland
55:32
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55:33
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55:35
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55:39
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55:43
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56:24
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Speaker 2: Information out on iran oak slash start here, iron rand
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57:00
Speaker 1: Uh.
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Speaker 2: Alex Epstein alex Epstein is the number one r fauty
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Speaker 2: in the world on all things energy, electricity, UH, environmental stuff,
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Speaker 1: UH. Check him out.
57:11
Speaker 2: UH check out the UH check out uh alex and
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Speaker 2: UH sign up for a substack alex Epstein do substack
57:17
Speaker 2: dot com. It it's you will learn so much about
57:21
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Speaker 1: Issues, the good, the bad, the ugly. UH.
57:30
Speaker 2: And you'll be supporting, uh, you know, really important work
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Speaker 2: being done on behalf of liberty and and behalf of
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Speaker 2: freedom UH in this country Michael Williams has a website
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Speaker 1: Defenders of Capitalism dot com.
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Speaker 2: It is a website dedicated defending capitalism from a political, social, economic,
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58:31
Speaker 1: All right, the jump in with the questions.
58:35
Speaker 2: We've got a few twenty dollars questions, actually, all the
58:38
Speaker 2: twenty dollars questions from Michael.
58:40
Speaker 1: Thank you. Michael, really really appreciate the support.
58:44
Speaker 2: Basically, Michael and Howison have asked almost all the questions
58:48
Speaker 2: with exception I think of like two questions today, So
58:53
Speaker 2: jump in with questions. Guys, you're missed Darlean, Thank you,
58:59
Speaker 2: thank you for the sticker appreciated Michael says, is that
59:05
Speaker 2: deliberate focusing of consciousness a causeless effect. What is the
59:11
Speaker 2: meaning of self initiated volition, cognition, cognitive act in which
59:15
Speaker 2: the individual serves as the direct cause. Well, I mean,
59:19
Speaker 2: it can't be causeless. There's no such thing as a
59:22
Speaker 2: causeless action. But you have to understand what cause means.
59:28
Speaker 2: Causality is about an object or entity, an entity acting
59:34
Speaker 2: according to its nature. Causality is an entity acting according
59:39
Speaker 2: to its nature. Causality is not about you know, one
59:46
Speaker 2: thing making the other thing do something.
59:48
Speaker 1: That's not the cause.
59:50
Speaker 2: The fundamental cause, the essence of the cause is the
59:53
Speaker 2: nature of the object, and if it's acted on, it
59:58
Speaker 2: acts in response to.
59:59
Speaker 1: That action according to its nature. That's the cause.
1:00:04
Speaker 2: So in a case of volition, human consciousness is acting
1:00:09
Speaker 2: according to its nation.
1:00:11
Speaker 1: It is you are causing it. That is the cause.
1:00:16
Speaker 2: Is you know, it's a there are cause, you know
1:00:21
Speaker 2: it's it's it's you self initiating. There is no event
1:00:28
Speaker 2: that comes before you initiating, and that's your nature as
1:00:31
Speaker 2: a human being.
1:00:32
Speaker 1: That's what volition, that's what we worll means.
1:00:35
Speaker 2: It's it's not causeless, it's caused by the nature of
1:00:39
Speaker 2: your consciousness.
1:00:40
Speaker 1: It's caused by the nature.
1:00:41
Speaker 2: Of you as a as a as this particular type
1:00:45
Speaker 2: of being.
1:00:50
Speaker 1: You know. So this is uh.
1:00:52
Speaker 2: This is a view of causality that is different than
1:00:54
Speaker 2: the human Billiard Boil view of causality. Michael, Democrats in
1:01:05
Speaker 2: a way better for big tech in California? Do religious
1:01:09
Speaker 2: conservatives view tech as godless and sinful? Are Democrats in
1:01:12
Speaker 2: general more pragmatic with their statism and Republicans? I don't know,
1:01:17
Speaker 2: I mean depends which Republicans.
1:01:18
Speaker 1: I mean.
1:01:18
Speaker 2: Trump is pretty pragmatic with his view about these things.
1:01:23
Speaker 2: I don't think he's particularly guided by religion about this.
1:01:27
Speaker 2: He's guided bioll kinds of other bs like make America
1:01:30
Speaker 2: Healthy Again is not guided by religion. But it's not
1:01:32
Speaker 2: guided by a science either. It's guided by somebody's emotions
1:01:35
Speaker 2: out there. I don't know that you can say Democrats
1:01:38
Speaker 2: are better Democrats are worse for big tech. It depends
1:01:41
Speaker 2: on the contacts, It depends on the tech, it depends
1:01:43
Speaker 2: on the year, depends on the particular leader, it depends on.
1:01:46
Speaker 1: What's going on.
1:01:47
Speaker 2: Democrats are awful for big tech and tech generally, and
1:01:51
Speaker 2: Republicans are awful for tech. Generally, I think Democrats are
1:01:54
Speaker 2: better on biotech because biotech sometimes infringes on things that
1:02:03
Speaker 2: Republicans get upset about visa VI religion. But in terms
1:02:06
Speaker 2: of right now, for example, big data centers for AI,
1:02:10
Speaker 2: both Democrats and Republicans against it.
1:02:14
Speaker 1: Now.
1:02:14
Speaker 2: The Democratic party machine in California realizes that their life
1:02:19
Speaker 2: depends on tech, and therefore they have to be lenient
1:02:22
Speaker 2: with tech. Tech is the primary lobbyist in San Cramento,
1:02:26
Speaker 2: and I think if Republicans were in Pounder in California,
1:02:28
Speaker 2: they would do the same thing. But I wouldn't say
1:02:33
Speaker 2: one is better than the other. I think both are
1:02:34
Speaker 2: generally bad, and both are.
1:02:36
Speaker 1: Heavily influenced by by.
1:02:39
Speaker 2: The tech companies because the tech companies dominate the state.
1:02:53
Speaker 1: All right.
1:02:54
Speaker 2: The difference is that man can think and alter his
1:02:57
Speaker 2: belief Man creates a big portion of his existence.
1:03:00
Speaker 1: The difference with what is another part of this questions
1:03:08
Speaker 1: doesn't look.
1:03:08
Speaker 2: Like animal beliefs are conditioned entirely on what happens to them.
1:03:14
Speaker 1: Yes, animals are pre programmed.
1:03:16
Speaker 2: Animals are deterministic beings, very complex in that determinism. They're
1:03:22
Speaker 2: very complex responses. But they, as far as we know
1:03:27
Speaker 2: don't have any sense of free will, any kind of volition.
1:03:31
Speaker 2: They are determined by their genes.
1:03:36
Speaker 1: The respond to sudden stimulating a sudden way.
1:03:40
Speaker 2: Human beings have their ability to shape their responses. They
1:03:45
Speaker 2: have the ability to choose to, you know, engage or
1:03:50
Speaker 2: not engage their faculty of.
1:03:55
Speaker 1: Awareness. Animals can't shut it down.
1:03:59
Speaker 2: They can't choose to evade. They can't choose to commit suicide.
1:04:06
Speaker 2: They can't choose not to do with their genetic makeup
1:04:11
Speaker 2: demands that they do.
1:04:17
Speaker 1: Michael says, just.
1:04:18
Speaker 2: When I walk out from my objectivist bubble and think
1:04:22
Speaker 2: objectivism is gaining traction in the culture out there, I
1:04:26
Speaker 2: enter political chatter room and realize we are so far
1:04:29
Speaker 2: from our goals. Yeah, I mean, the real world out
1:04:34
Speaker 2: there is pretty discouraging. The reality is that, yes, we're far, far,
1:04:38
Speaker 2: far from our goal. And when you start thinking about
1:04:41
Speaker 2: the three hundred and fifty million people in America, I
1:04:44
Speaker 2: don't know how many of them vote, But I don't
1:04:45
Speaker 2: know one hundred and fifty two hundred million people vote,
1:04:49
Speaker 2: how many objectivists, so, how many have influenced by objectives
1:04:52
Speaker 2: to how many are leaning towards objectivism?
1:04:56
Speaker 1: Very very few?
1:04:57
Speaker 2: So yeah, there's a long, long, multi decade still battle
1:05:03
Speaker 2: yet to be to be fought.
1:05:07
Speaker 1: Harrison.
1:05:08
Speaker 2: Modern ai is are simulated brains. It's tough to know
1:05:11
Speaker 2: how to make them safe. And I guess this continues
1:05:14
Speaker 2: as the next question. Since there's no so much we
1:05:17
Speaker 2: don't know about how our real brains work. We also
1:05:20
Speaker 2: don't know much about how these simulated brains in Jaws work.
1:05:26
Speaker 2: So I don't agree that modern AI is a simulated
1:05:29
Speaker 2: brain at all.
1:05:30
Speaker 1: I don't think it's I don't think it functions anything
1:05:33
Speaker 1: like a brain.
1:05:36
Speaker 2: You know, for one, the main you know, the most
1:05:39
Speaker 2: important thing that the big difference between them, and the
1:05:43
Speaker 2: many big differences, but maybe not the biggest difference, but
1:05:46
Speaker 2: the most obvious difference between them, is that the human
1:05:50
Speaker 2: brain is connected to reality. The human brain actually gets inputs,
1:05:57
Speaker 2: not from stuff other people, from stuff people right, not
1:06:02
Speaker 2: from stuff people say, but from actual reality.
1:06:07
Speaker 1: I sitting here and I can see a camera.
1:06:10
Speaker 2: I can see a computer, I can see a bottle
1:06:12
Speaker 2: of water, and I can hold those as images.
1:06:16
Speaker 1: I mean, in that sense, a dog's brain.
1:06:19
Speaker 2: Is more sophisticated than AI, because a dog's brain can
1:06:23
Speaker 2: actually has consciousness, it's actually aware of its environment and
1:06:29
Speaker 2: actually can hold its environment, can actually experience its environment
1:06:33
Speaker 2: as pleasure and pain, just like human as human beings do.
1:06:37
Speaker 2: Computer doesn't have any of that. It doesn't have any
1:06:40
Speaker 2: sensory inputs, So it's not a brain in a job. Indeed,
1:06:46
Speaker 2: a brain in a job would be meaningless. A brain
1:06:49
Speaker 2: detached from sensory information is not a brain. It can
1:06:55
Speaker 2: be conscious. The only thing you can be conscious of
1:06:59
Speaker 2: is the world, and then you can integrate the information
1:07:04
Speaker 2: you will see from the world into abstractions and you
1:07:07
Speaker 2: can manipulate those distractions and write essays and write documents,
1:07:15
Speaker 2: and what guides you doing it as a human being
1:07:18
Speaker 2: is your values, your awareness, your consciousness, your choices.
1:07:26
Speaker 1: But AI has none of those, and AI.
1:07:28
Speaker 2: Construct sentences based on some statistical algorithm. That's not how
1:07:35
Speaker 2: a brain works at all. So no, I really don't
1:07:39
Speaker 2: accept the idea that AI is a brain in a
1:07:42
Speaker 2: vat or a brain in a jar, or a simulation
1:07:44
Speaker 2: of a brain. It's a simulation of stuffed people have
1:07:49
Speaker 2: written online. It's a simulation of the sentence structure. The
1:07:59
Speaker 2: idea is as projected by words written in essays, in books,
1:08:04
Speaker 2: in documents, and it's reflecting back what already exists online.
1:08:09
Speaker 2: It's just reorganizing it in a way that looks like thinking,
1:08:14
Speaker 2: but it's not. I think Harrison continues here, So it's
1:08:18
Speaker 2: not just a problem of getting good thinkers involved. We
1:08:20
Speaker 2: don't know enough about how AI works yet to know
1:08:23
Speaker 2: the difference between handling it safely or not, or what
1:08:27
Speaker 2: the dangers even are. For now, I just be polite
1:08:32
Speaker 2: to the brains in the cloud, just in case. We'll
1:08:35
Speaker 2: have to learn what the dangers are as we go.
1:08:38
Speaker 2: As we're going now, there's some truth to that that
1:08:40
Speaker 2: we don't completely understand how it works, but we do
1:08:45
Speaker 2: understand how it works in a real meaningful way. That is,
1:08:48
Speaker 2: somebody is programmed the algorithm. The algorithm ultimately dictates how
1:08:53
Speaker 2: it works. The algorithm might be super complex, and it
1:08:58
Speaker 2: might douce things that might supprise use the people who
1:09:01
Speaker 2: design the algorithm, But people understand fundamentally how it's working,
1:09:08
Speaker 2: even if they don't understand every single response it makes.
1:09:11
Speaker 2: And I think we know what the dangers are like
1:09:14
Speaker 2: if we know it's not conscious, and we know it
1:09:16
Speaker 2: has no values.
1:09:17
Speaker 1: We know what it can and cannot do. We know
1:09:19
Speaker 1: what's possible and what's impossible.
1:09:21
Speaker 2: To it, and I very much think that if you
1:09:24
Speaker 2: bring in people who are really thoughtful and really thinking
1:09:28
Speaker 2: and really we're also involved in the design of AI,
1:09:32
Speaker 2: they know what the dangers are and I think I
1:09:35
Speaker 2: think they can deal with those dangers.
1:09:40
Speaker 1: All right, Steven, what are the exam questions? Curious?
1:09:44
Speaker 2: How I do I'm not gonna tell them value just
1:09:46
Speaker 2: in case one of my students is listening to.
1:09:47
Speaker 1: The show and they get they get what, you know,
1:09:51
Speaker 1: a preview of the exam questions.
1:09:53
Speaker 2: So ask me the question again tomorrow. Well, if there's
1:09:57
Speaker 2: a show tomrow, if I do a show tomorrow, ask
1:10:00
Speaker 2: again tomorrow, and I'll tell you.
1:10:00
Speaker 1: What the exam questions are.
1:10:02
Speaker 2: What Michael thoughts on Tom Steyer, I mean, he's a
1:10:10
Speaker 2: Democrat who is He's a billionaire, he is an environmentalist, activist,
1:10:16
Speaker 2: he's a real leftist, he's a really he's a really
1:10:20
Speaker 2: bad guy who uses his money to advocate for some
1:10:24
Speaker 2: of the worst causes in the world right now than
1:10:27
Speaker 2: Emanade on the left. So I think he was very
1:10:30
Speaker 2: much woke, but very much an environmentalist and very much
1:10:34
Speaker 2: a socialist. So I would stay away from Tom Steyer.
1:10:39
Speaker 2: Wyatt is the issue with Ken Griffin's offer that you
1:10:43
Speaker 2: think oh Well shouldn't be sanctioned similar to how you
1:10:46
Speaker 2: think David Kelly shouldn't sanctioned. No, I mean it's completely
1:10:50
Speaker 2: completely different. I have no problem with sanctioning Oh Weell.
1:10:53
Speaker 2: I have no problem kids reading all Well. They should read.
1:10:56
Speaker 2: Owell is a really good writer, and he's very good
1:10:59
Speaker 2: at describe being authoritarian, and authoritarianism in nineteen eighty four
1:11:04
Speaker 2: is a brilliant book. Animal Farm is pretty good in
1:11:08
Speaker 2: describing kind of a stalinist environment. All I'm saying is
1:11:11
Speaker 2: to combat mumdanni. Don't use a socialist if you want
1:11:17
Speaker 2: to combat mamdani, use a capitalist right, combat hym at
1:11:23
Speaker 2: the level of ideas. But no, you should definitely buy
1:11:26
Speaker 2: your kids Animal Farm, have them read it. You should
1:11:28
Speaker 2: have them read nineteen eighty four and talk to them
1:11:30
Speaker 2: about it. High school kids should all be reading dystopian
1:11:34
Speaker 2: novels Anthem among them, but they should be reading Animal Farm.
1:11:37
Speaker 2: I just don't think Kevin Griffin, in attacking ma'mdanni and
1:11:41
Speaker 2: in educating people about m'mdanni, should use an author who
1:11:47
Speaker 2: is a socialist. I imagine if people, if people, if
1:11:54
Speaker 2: students read Animal Farm, go Okay, this is anti Mumdani.
1:11:59
Speaker 2: And then they read about oil and discover here's a
1:12:01
Speaker 2: democratic socialist exactly like Mumdani and they go, oh, oh,
1:12:05
Speaker 2: so Mamdani's also against animal fall cool, also against Stalinism.
1:12:10
Speaker 1: So what have you done?
1:12:11
Speaker 2: You've achieved nothing, So Stalinism everybody is against, even Mumdani.
1:12:16
Speaker 2: It's not effective. You're not helping, your hurting your cause.
1:12:21
Speaker 2: Send the kids something that's clearly opposed to Mamdani.
1:12:32
Speaker 1: I like numbers. Has the Atlas Prize generated by so far?
1:12:36
Speaker 1: You know?
1:12:36
Speaker 2: I don't know, and maybe the fact that I don't
1:12:38
Speaker 2: know suggest it hasn't much. So I don't I don't know.
1:12:43
Speaker 2: I'll find out from somebody at the Institute and let
1:12:47
Speaker 2: you guys know, I'm not engaged. Ian says, how much
1:12:52
Speaker 2: would we have to pay you to see the new
1:12:55
Speaker 2: Animal Farm movie? It sounds like torture? Yeah, you know,
1:12:58
Speaker 2: at least a thousand bucks. I think I could then
1:13:02
Speaker 2: comment on it at lease a thousand books.
1:13:05
Speaker 1: Yeah and not. It looks really really disgusting, really disgusting.
1:13:12
Speaker 1: But look might becompletely consistent with George Jowell, that is,
1:13:15
Speaker 1: he might approve of it.
1:13:16
Speaker 2: I don't know again Owell was He's good of an
1:13:20
Speaker 2: off that he was as good of his books are.
1:13:22
Speaker 1: He was a socialist. Don't don't forget that fact. All right.
1:13:29
Speaker 2: Thank you for all the those who ask questions. Thank
1:13:33
Speaker 2: you for all the super chatters who supported the show.
1:13:36
Speaker 2: Thanks for all the stick of people who supported the show.
1:13:39
Speaker 2: Really appreciate that. I think I got everybody on the
1:13:42
Speaker 2: stick of side.
1:13:43
Speaker 1: Yep, we did. And reminder to join Patreon and and
1:13:51
Speaker 1: come over supported.
1:13:52
Speaker 2: Don't just become a fan of Patreon, but actually support
1:13:55
Speaker 2: the show on Patreon again.
1:13:57
Speaker 1: Two dollars. I know a lot of you are there
1:13:59
Speaker 1: for free. Consider flipping from free.
1:14:04
Speaker 2: To becoming two dollars, five dollars, ten dollars, you know,
1:14:07
Speaker 2: paying for the stuff that you're.
1:14:09
Speaker 1: Receiving for free.
1:14:11
Speaker 2: All Right, I will see you all maybe tomorrow. Tomorrow
1:14:15
Speaker 2: will be an off hour. Will probably be in the
1:14:17
Speaker 2: evening because I get to Denver in the afternoon and
1:14:20
Speaker 2: by the time I get to the hotel, so I'll
1:14:21
Speaker 2: probably do a show in the evening Colorado time, which
1:14:24
Speaker 2: will be pretty late East Coast time, but I'll try
1:14:28
Speaker 2: to do one and other than that, I'll see you
1:14:33
Speaker 2: guys on Sunday, have a great rest of your week.
1:14:37
Speaker 2: Bye everybody,