Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Tech Stock Rally 🚀 + Stock Market News 24 March 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - DON’T SAY YOU DIDN’T KNOW | Tech Stock Rally 🚀 + Stock Market News 24 March 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I want to walk you through what is rallying today we're seeing all these gap apps, some of our favorite stocks today and then answer why.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: And at the same time, hedge funds are actually selling.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: They have very, very different ideas to you and me.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I'll share with my screen, thank you.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Pretty extraordinary, wouldn't you say?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: We also today have new mics, um, which hopefully makes the audio much, much nicer.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Um, no audio.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: Seriously, are you guys are kidding me, aren't you?
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: It works on my end, we lost sound when you switch screens.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, okay, that was.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: That was entirely my, my fault there.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, apologize for that.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Uh, let me run you through it again.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: So I want to walk you through what is rallying today all the gaps ups.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Today.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: We're back.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: I pressed the wrong button, entirely me.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Why are we rallying?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Because that's always good to understand.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: You always think like well, why is the market going up or down?
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Well, in the next few minutes, you'll understand that and then you'll of you who might be concerned is there a recession?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: If you read mainstream media, they're all worried about recessions and so on, and I want to give you just one piece of data there that, I think, will answer that question for you.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: And we're also going to get a bailout.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: The stock market is going to get a bailout.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We don't need a crash for it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: It's coming anyway, and I'll give you the amount and the dates.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And then somebody out there has just sold $16 trillion in US stocks.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: I think you might want to understand that, because that's probably the most important data point we've got right now.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: As investors or traders, it doesn't really matter which you are, it's basically all the same.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: So sound is clear and crisp, brilliant.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Okay, we've got a nice, big, shiny new microphone here and we're going to keep this one as long as it doesn't eat it.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: No crackling at all.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Lovely, amazing, and no more.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: What is it called?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Smtr or whatever?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: What's that thing?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Asmr no more ASMR on this, on this channel.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: So shall we get cracking?
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: If you want me to get cracking, write, write, write cracking in the chat and we'll get straight into it.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Make audio great again, exactly, yeah, I had some lovely chaps in here today who were lighting and sound guys and they did a very good job.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I hope Perfecto, brilliant.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: George was writing cracking, which which slightly scared me because people used to write up and the sound sucks.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Um, so nice, all right, brilliant guys.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: So shall we get straight into it?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: I think we probably should, right?
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: So let me show you the first of seven key points here, but before I do, I want to show you, I just want to show you the market.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Look at that here.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: This is a screenshot I just took of the S&P, and this is where we closed on Friday.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: What happened to the pen?
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: All we need now is a pen Cracking, cracking, cracking, sound Brilliant.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: That will still be closed on Friday.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: We're trading here right now.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: That, my friends, is known as a gap up, which is a beautiful thing, the most beautiful pattern that you could ever see in the market.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: You can see, I've been listening to too much Donald J Trump.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: The last time we had such a beautiful pattern was here.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Which was what was that?
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Early 2025, sort of January 15th or so, and the previous one was when the orange one got elected in November.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Right, and that's the NASDAQ, the S&P, rather, and if you look at the NASDAQ similar story and these are screenshots from Trade Vision, I'll show you the live thing in a second as well.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And what's important here?
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Well, not only do we see a gap up.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: But we're also breaking through the resistance, which was sitting at $485, which is a proprietary indicator that we have where we add up all the positions, all the hedge fund bastards out there Sorry, the lovely people who make the market work yeah, those people and we tell you where they're going to sell.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: They're going to sell at $485.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: But so far we're above this level and that's really really important.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: And then if you look at some of our favorites, say, palantir is gapping up Can you see that here, which is good.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: That's actually one of the more positive charts Palantir here, because we're actually gapping up above the 50-day moving average line.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: If you look at, say, nvidia, also gapping up here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: But watch out, the 50-day moving average line is really really really far overhead.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: So don't get too excited about that one, really really really far overhead.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: So don't get too excited about that one.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Amazon also gapping up here very nicely 2% up this morning, pre-market at $200 and a few cents.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: So really really nice moves here.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: But again, the 50-day is sitting at 218.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: And I explained that to you in a bit more detail in a few minutes.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: That is not necessarily where you want to buy.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: It's certainly not the safe spot.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: So pre-market here.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: This is how it looks.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: It looks green and bushy-eyed and wonderful, and it's just Tesla's up 4%.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Nvidia 2, the big tech stocks up Meta up 2.8%.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Glorious, isn't it?
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Absolutely glorious.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: If you think this is glorious, write glorious in the chat, so I know that you're finding this as glorious as me, and let me walk you through some of the key stuff here.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: So why is this happening?
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Well, of course, it is Trump's fault.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Mark's joining us with some parking jokes.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Good morning, mark.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: That includes so here.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Basically, we are now expecting next Tuesday, april the 2nd, which is, according to the orange one, the most glorious day in the history of the country, because he's called it Freedom Day, I think something like that.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: No-transcript, easy to mix those two up, really, nowadays, mexico, japan, south Korea, canada, india and China, as Trump says.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: So they're going to bear the brunt of it, but again, it's probably not going to be like blanket.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: It'll be certain industries and certain things, and it just means it won't be as bad as people had feared, and that's a good thing, right, the market kind of looks at it that way.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Liberation Day Is that what it is?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Liberation Day, yes, from the yoke of the apparatchiks in Brussels, canada and Mexico, which is apparently to be renamed the bit south of the US.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Now why am I showing you a chart about hedge funds?
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Probably don't care about them.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: Am I showing you a chart about hedge funds?
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Probably don't care about them, right?
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: But very few people actually care about hedge funds.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you know some of them, they're all right, usually not the most exciting people.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Some of them are actually quite fun.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: I know some of them.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: They're quite nice, but they are basically bearish.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: They're so bearish we couldn't afford the E or the end of more.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: They are very, very bearish and they've been selling and selling and selling and they're literally the most bearish that anyone's ever seen.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: A bunch of hedge funders.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: It's like the Krug champagne has run out or something that would make them very upset, at least the ones I know.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So what does that say to you?
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Does that mean, therefore, we should be bearish?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Does that mean we should be selling everything?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Should we be worried?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Well, if you understand hedge funds, they don't have conviction.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: They don't care if the stock goes up or down.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: They just want to make money, no matter what happens.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: That's just who they are.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: They're just pure unadulterated capitalists of the 1980s, greediest good breed sell you anything.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: They will sell their mother or anything anything really for a bit of profit.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So they were bearish, not for some deeper spiritual meaning, but just because that's where they thought they could make the most money.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: And hey, they made some money.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Right, if they ran that 10% down, they made some money.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: So what does that therefore mean?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Well, the likelihood of them selling more is smaller than the likelihood of them going higher, and it's a simple question of probabilities.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: How often were we lower than this since 2020?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Zero percent of the time.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: How often were we higher than this?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent of the time?
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Now, there isn't a hundred percent guarantee that they're going to start buying, but it's definitely not 50-50, is it?
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Or even 55-50.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: They have their ways.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So I hope it's a bit of a contrary when everyone hates stuff.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: So you know, as Buffett says, when others are fearful, be greedy could be a time to start getting very, very greedy.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: And here I promised you the date, the actual date when the market typically rebounds.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Like Michael J Fox, I love Michael J Fox.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I think he's one of the nicest, funniest actors out there.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: How many boats can you ski behind?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: What are you guys talking about Water skiing.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: That is, isn't it?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: That's good fun.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's about to become water skiing season here.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: When it gets too hot, we can't hike, so we basically just have to be on the water and burn to a crisp like a shrimp sort of coloured, sort of crimson coloured, within a space of about 30 seconds.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: What does this show?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: You shows you in blue.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Blue as the um, as the french say uh, this is now the s&p doesn't look too good, right.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: And then you've got above it in that sort of gray.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: You've got normal, right, not the kind of normal that offends people.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: But you know, I'm not talking about what you identify as, I'm just saying normal market behavior, right.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Apparently, normal is something that's offensive to people.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Now, how dare you call me a normal market?
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: And when do we normally rebound?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Well, we normally rebound on March 23rd, to be precise, which is what's the day today?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: It's March, isn't it?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: It's March 24th, you see.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So it should be today.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I should have changed the headline market rebounds today, massive rally incoming.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Now, if you missed this video, it's all over.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: I should have just quoted that, right, did I?
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Probably did something fairly silly as that, didn't I?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Titles are a silly thing on YouTube.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: People track this and therefore, a lot of people look at this and they go.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: Well, the chart says it should go up.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Therefore, we should probably buy a little bit right, just to just to be happy, be sure.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: So, um, now, camilo, I'm not normal.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm normal.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Email, anybody think I'm normal?
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I won't be offended if you say not.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: So what?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: What is the?
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: What's the conclusion?
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: When you see this?
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Well, I know what you're all thinking.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: You, you're all thinking what if I miss the big rally, the big breakout, the biggest opportunity of 2025 that generations of investors will talk about for at least several days?
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Then you'd feel really worried about that.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: And only 24% of you are worried about the market crashing, which means you're either on some sort of substance or you're all optimists, which I like.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Hopefully the latter, but I won't judge you for it.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So what do we therefore do?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We're going to learn.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: When do we buy?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: When do we buy these things that are rallying up?
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: And I know people are always saying, oh, buy the dip, buy the bottom of the market.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Well, it doesn't always work out so well, does it?
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Let me give you a lovely little example Advanced money destroyer.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: People have been saying it's the bottom of the market.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: There and here and there and here and there and here and there and here and there, and and here and there, and here and there and here and there and right now, and that's been going on for a very, very, very, very long time, so since the beginning of time, I feel.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: And they have lost in the process at 40% of their money since that started.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: But I could take you back a little further and could show you some more.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: People said this was the bottom, or that was the bottom, or this, this was the bottom, or they just got distracted by bottoms generally, which is understandable.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: So, especially golden retriever bottoms or, you know, pug bottoms are actually very cute.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So here we go, 52 down.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: You would be because you thought it was brilliant to buy at the alleged bottom.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: You only know that it's a bottom once it's all over.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Therefore, we use not some finger in the wind sort of thing, or let's see how many YouTube videos are made on a particular stock, but the actual rules that the guys on Wall Street use.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: You might think, well, I don't have the actual rules that those guys on Wall Street use, but I'm going to give them to you for free.