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Inside The Data: Do The Numbers Suggest Eagles DC Vic Fangio Should Have Blitzed More Vs. Cowboys? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, and man, we got Sam Finkel here
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: to deliver some analysis and data and analytics to let
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: us know if there was something about the Eagles defense
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: that was even worse than our eyes already told us.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: There's some numbers and metrics that can explain how this
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Eagles defense has just gone from being considered elite to
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: allowing 38 points. to the Dallas Cowboys who are struggling
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: offensively going into Monday night's game. Sam, we'll talk about that.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: We're going to question a little bit, some of the
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: numbers about Vic Fangio's play calling. And we'll also end on,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: we'll get some positive stuff in here too. We got
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: some Makai Lemon data that I think people will be
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: interested to hear, especially people who just need some morsel
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: of positive news, right?
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. We give it how it is, but we're
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: also going to try to give you some hope too.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So, yeah, as we have done and
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: as Sam continues to do, we cater the show to
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: really talk about not only what happened last game, but
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: what's happening all season and any trends that we have
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: picked up along the way. So we obviously will get
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: into personnel usage on both sides, the Eagles and the Cowboys,
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: and tell everybody what it all means. So, again, Sam
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: has put together some great charts. We thank you, Sam.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: for doing that. And hey, let's, you know, just get
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: right into it, as we always do. So let's start, Sam,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: with our favorite model, our favorite chart, I mean, which
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: is the win percentage chart. Yes, it is.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: It's usually our favorite when the Eagles are on the
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: winning side of it, which has not happened in the
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: last five weeks. Right. But there is, Somewhat good news.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: The Eagles did have a more than 50% chance of
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: winning this game at one point. They were at 52%
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: during the second quarter, 29 seconds left, following an incompletion
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb on second and three,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: when the Eagles were leading by four.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Right. Right. Wait, is that the play? I may have
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: to go and look while we're... Is that the play
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: where Dak sort of threw it to Lamb while he
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: was standing out of bounds?
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: That was one of the funniest plays I'd ever seen
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: because Lamb caught the ball like, why did you throw
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: it to me? Literally standing out of bounds.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, his body language was so funny. I don't know
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: if it's that play, but it would be really funny
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: if that was the play.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Give me the play again is in the second quarter,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: 12-29 to go. I'm going to go check that out.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I would have thought, by the way, because I like
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: to predict now, knowing that we're going to do this,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: when do the Eagles have their advantage. I would have
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: thought that after they drove down the field in the
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: third quarter, they had like an 18 play drive, right.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: To retake the lead. I would have thought at that
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: point that they would have had the highest, but clearly
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: that was not the case. Yeah.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I can actually tell you exactly where they were on
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: that drive, what percentage they were at, but it was not.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: I am looking at the play right now where the
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Eagles had their highest win percentage. It was second and three,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: second quarter, as you mentioned, At that point, it's 14-10 Eagles.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: All right, I'm watching Dak Prescott here. Thanks to our
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: friends at NFL Pro. I don't have to thank them.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: I pay for it.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Let's thank you enough.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: No, okay, you know what? He beat Quinion Mitchell on
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: a crosser to the left side pretty badly. Well, yeah,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: by at least two steps, but Dak threw the ball high.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I didn't think Dak played a very good first half.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: He threw good touchdown passes, but like the pass I
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: mentioned where he just Throws it to a receiver out
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: of bounds. I just didn't think he played that great.
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: No, and it's unfortunate. By the way, in that third quarter,
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: after the Eagles retook the lead 21-20, the Eagles' win
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: percentage was 43%.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Wow. So not even close to the 52% they had
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: in the second quarter. Interesting. All right. We are still
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: on draft pick watch. We're going to do this after
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: every time the Eagles lose a game, right?
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: They're currently, according to Tankathon, at the sixth pick right now,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: which was one better position than last week. Wow. Just
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: a fun, not fun stat, maybe. I don't know. The
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: Eagles have lost their fifth game in a row, and
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: the last time that happened was 10 years ago in 2016.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: Crazy. Are they getting themselves into, like, Jeremiah Smith range? Like,
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: that would be incredible. I mean, it would be a
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: little bit of a positive on a negative season, but
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: he'd be fun in Philadelphia.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I think so too. You'd have Smith and Smith.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: That's right. Jeremiah and Devante. Very interesting. Wow. All right.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So two and five. So this is the first five-game
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: losing streak since 2016? Yes. I'm not going to look.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I remember 2016. That was, I believe, Chip Kelly's last year,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: if I'm not mistaken. No.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: It might have been Peterson's first year. Yeah.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And what happened was I think they– They lost five
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: in a row from week four to week seven. Do
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: you have it in front of you?
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: I will pull it up as we speak. That's your guess?
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: That's my guess.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Week four to week seven. Because if I remember, they
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: actually finished the year kind of strong that year at
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: the end of the year. But they opened up the year.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: This is Carson Wentz's first year. They opened it up.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: They won a couple of games. Everybody got excited. Then
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: they lost to Detroit. if I'm not mistaken, for their
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: first loss of Carson Wentz era. And then they went
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: on a little losing streak.
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: So you are kind of right about the Detroit thing,
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: but the losses came week 11 to week 15.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Wow.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: I guess they didn't finish as strong as I thought. Okay.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: It started with the Seahawks and ended with the Ravens.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: All right. Week one was a win, correct?
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: Week one was a win against the Titans.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Don't tell me.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Oh, shoot.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: Did you say the Titans?
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Browns. Week one was a win against the Browns. Week
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: two was a win on Monday night against the Bears? Yes.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: What a fool. Week three was a division game, correct? No. Oh, man.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: Who did they beat after they beat the Bears? They
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: were 3-0.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: Oh, man.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I wish I could remember it. Was it the... So
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: the Bears, they would lose to the Lions.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: They.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: Vikings?
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: It is not the Vikings.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: All right, just tell me.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: It is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: That's right. Was that a blowout?
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: They won 34-3, so yeah.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I remember that game. I remember.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, not bad. This old man still got it.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: And then they had a bye week, week four.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Yep. Nice recall. I got to give you a lot
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: of credit on that.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: I'll go even further. In the Detroit game, it was
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: a close game. I believe they lost in overtime. You
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: can check that for me. Or it was a very
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: close game, but Carson Wentz threw his first interception of
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: his career in that game. And the Lions cornerback who
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: picked him off was, for his first of his career,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: would be future Eagle Darius Slay. And I thought it
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: was overtime.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I could be wrong. It's 23-24. I don't see if
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: it's overtime.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Okay. May not have been overtime. But I do know
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: that Darius Slay picked him off in that game. That
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: was his first career interception.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: It looks like Slay had two interceptions that game.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: Yep. What a crazy recall. I got to give you
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: credit there.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Sometimes I scare myself.
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's impressive.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: All right. So we're on top five pick watch if
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: they're losing. Right now they're at six. Top five pick watch.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about third downs. And we'll bring back this
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: box because it's relevant. What did you think about their
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: third down performance in comparison?
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I actually got to add some more context
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: to this. Now we have the league average on third down.
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: So I think it'll make this make a little bit
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: more sense. I took out the historical Eagles data and
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: focused more on what's going on this year. So the
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: league average in the week was 44%, 43.7%. The Eagles
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: converted 41.7%. And the Cowboys converted 61.5%. So low average
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: and the Cowboys significantly above average on the week.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Right. So the two takeaways really are obviously the Eagles
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: defense was atrocious on third down, but also 41%, 42%
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: closer might be below league average for the Eagles offense. However,
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: it's actually better than what they've been performing at. So
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: at least we saw improvement there.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. And that's a great segue into the season stats.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: So 20 in 2026, all the games so far through
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: seven weeks, The Eagles are 37.9%. Let's call it 38%
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: on the season. The league average is around 40%. So
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: they're around 2% under the league average. And then their opponents,
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: they're allowing about almost 2% over. So they're basically the
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: average is here. The Eagles are here and their opponents
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: are here, which is you want it to be reversed. True.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: For those that are listening and not watching, the 2%
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: spread is not in favor of the Eagles for their
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: defense and, you know, for their offense, they're not converting
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: at league average.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Correct. Let's go a little further. And I love the
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: league average now and how that pertains to what the
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Eagles are when they are in third down situational. Yeah.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: Again, I think the league average just adds so much,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: you know, context.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Totally agree. Great idea.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Basically third and short, they are seven out of 16,
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: which is 28th in attempts, by the way, of the
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: entire league. Their 16th is 28th in attempts. And to
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: make it worse, um they're tied 28 the team after
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: them is 32nd there is a four-way tie.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Oh so they're just like a few from being the
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: worst then yes or at least the second worst okay just.
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: To be like extremely clear on what that means here
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: right and they look at the league average i mean
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: the league average attempts is 24 24.4 and they're averaging 61.5
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: something that's interesting though is third and medium, and third
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: and long. Eagles are third in attempts in both. As
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: you can see, they have more than the league average
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: in medium. They have 28 this season, and the league
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: average is 21. And then third and long, they have
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: 51 attempts, and the league average is 41. But they
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: are converting at a higher clip for third and medium,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: and then they're converting at a lower– right about the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: same right about league average and third and long but
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: they're just third and long so much.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Yep that's crazy they are in third and long so
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: much and they're doing for a team that's in third
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: and long so much again to be around league average
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: and conversion is pretty good but it's so backwards to
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: be better in your conversion of third and medium third
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: and long than you are in third and short i
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: mean that's compared to league average that's that's crazy.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. It's just too many difficult third downs and
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: poor short yardage execution undermine what is an otherwise productive
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: medium distance offense.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Absolutely.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: I think it would probably be better if like the
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: conversion could be better if they had more opportunities in
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: that third and short range. But even if you scale
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: that out, I mean, I guess third and medium is
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: where they're, they're doing okay. Yeah.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Very, very weird. We've talked about that all year long.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Your third down offense. Okay. This was really interesting. We
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: had a discussion somewhat about this in last week's preview
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: about the Cowboys and all the trouble they were having
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: running the ball. They actually had, and I repeat this
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: so much it's crazy, the Cowboys had fewer rushing yards
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: for the season than the Eagles before Monday night, which
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: is like bizarre to even think given how healthy they've
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: been on offense and the same personnel and that's really
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: what they do and how bad the Eagles have been
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: rushing the ball. The Cowboys were worse. But the Cowboys
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: obviously had some wrinkles, Sam. Yeah.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, from a personnel perspective, they certainly did. They
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: had six offensive line nine times. They ran 12, 11 times.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: They ran 13, six times. And they ran 21 or
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: 22 personnel six times. And they were successful in every
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: single one of them except for 12 personnel in terms of, like, success,
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: which is that metrics that we've used before, except we're
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: using a true media's version of it, which is 50%
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: on first 50% on second conversion on third conversion fourth.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: The only difference is it's not 40% on first is
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: 50% of versus actually a higher threshold. Um, that's the
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: only thing I'll, I'll differentiate. So the Cowboys were successful, uh,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: basically on every formation that they'd done except for 12.
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: But then you look at it from an EPA perspective,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: and this EPA is specifically the Cowboys EPA that they generated.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: They were successful in every single one from an EPA perspective.
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: So in terms of getting the drive to continue to
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: go and contributing to potential points, they were successful. I mean,
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: it is pretty significant. And I think 21 and 22
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: personnel is worth highlighting because they almost added one point
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: per play.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: And this personnel.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Running six plays out of that, those combined formations,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the six offensive line thing was the first time I
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: believe they had done it. And what they did, it
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: sent me to the depth chart. They kept saying 77
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: reports ineligible or reports as eligible. And I'm like 77.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I don't, you know, and then I went, I'm like,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: you know, you know how that moment where it like
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: crystallizes in your head. I was like, Oh, it's Broderick Jones,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: the former first round pick of the Steelers who did
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: not play well in Pittsburgh as a starter and But,
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: you know, you give him a fresh scenario. You make
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: him just a spare part six offensive lineman. He's a
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: big dude. He can at least give you a little
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: bit of run blocking on nine plays, which he did,
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: and they did well.
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a pretty interesting wrinkle that was in
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: their game plan.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: The only response I really saw from a tape standpoint, Sam,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to that was that, you know, they obviously stayed in
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: their 5-2 base front when the Cowboys put six offensive linemen.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: been out there. Sometimes you would see Zach Bond come
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: down on the line of scrimmage to be an extra
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: defender in the run, but that actually leaves the middle
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: you're in your middle, like very vulnerable, right? Cause then
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: you only have really one off ball linebacker all across
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the field. So if the back does make a cut,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: which Devante Williams is a good, like one quick cut
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: type runner, it allows them to get more, more opportunities.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. It kind of, the Eagles attack plan kind of
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: backfired on them.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: For sure. For sure. which we'll get into in a
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: second even more. But before we really talk about Vic,
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, we knew edge rush was going to be
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: an issue because they're not healthy there. Although Jalex Hunt
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: and Jonathan Grenard did play, they were basically invisible and
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: you could tell they're not 100%. Yeah, definitely.
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: And I mean, as like I said, this is a
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: pretty dynamic graphic. So that's why the NFL averages change
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: week to week, not much, but they do change. Like
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: the pressure rate increased, uh, the league's pressure increased. So
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: the Eagles on the season are now below on pressure rate, uh,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: which doesn't help that they only pressured on 21.4% of
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: the plays, uh, and weren't able to get a sack. Um, so,
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, that, that does hurt them significantly. I mean,
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: the last two games, they've had trouble generating pressure at
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: a league average rate. Um, while the league actually is
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: generating more pressures. So it's kind of a compounding effect
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: as the Eagles are significantly below it and the other
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: teams are having more pressures.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You know, I thought you and I tried to
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: be a little optimistic after I think the Jacksonville game
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: to say, hey, they're getting closer to league average and pressure.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: It's just a question of turning the pressure into sacks.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: That's their issue. But then they were below league average
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: against Carolina, although closer. But then really way below against Dallas.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: So now it's not it's no longer a conversion issue.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: It's an actual generation of pressure.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Which is an even bigger issue. Like before we
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: emphasized that they couldn't get home. Now they can't even
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: get close to home. They can't even knock on the door.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: You said it. Oh, you're becoming a podcaster, my friend.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Look at you.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: The analogies with the double entendres. I like it.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Thank you. I learned from the best. I would say that.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: Let me know who that is so I can take
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: some lessons as well.
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: The big thing we talked about in the preview is
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: that Dak Prescott had struggled against the blitz and Vic Fangio,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: because of the injuries, has been blitzing more. So you
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: kind of thought one and one is two, Sam, right?
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Like you kind of thought, hey, you got a quarterback
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: struggling against a blitz versus a defense that is now
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: blitzing more. maybe this will be an advantage for Vic Fangio.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I think we're going to go specifically
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: into Dak stats under this, but I think just looking
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: at how Fangio has sent the blitzes is kind of
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: interesting and worth discussing. So in how often has it happened?
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: The four or fewer, the Eagles run that 76% of
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: their time. They send five man, 19%, six man, 3%,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: and then max, which is just seven or more. 2.3%.
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: And you look at the league average and it's super interesting.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not surprising that they are significantly above
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: the average in terms of four or fewer, because that's
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: pretty standard Fangio. But what's interesting is when you look
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: at that, the zero blitz or the max blitz, whatever
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: you want to call it, they're actually above league average.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: So, so he really likes that in the red zone.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably the one area where he, he
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: tries to get away with it and force a turnover. Yeah.
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: But, I mean, you look at the rank in the league, right?
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: They're fourth in, you know, out four-man or less.
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Conventional rushes, yeah.
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: They're 24th in five-man, 32nd in six-man, and ninth in max. Right.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Zero blitz.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Right. And then let's look how that actually translates, right?
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: Because it's one thing to say how many you do it,
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: but what does it actually produce?
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Mm-hmm.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: And you look at that, and you look at the average,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: the league average for traditional blitz– Is minus 0.1. And
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: this is where it becomes really important that we talk
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: about the data that we got. This data is from
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: true media. And so they flip it right. Higher EPA is,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: is actually better. Negative EPA is actually bad for the
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: defense in this context.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Okay. So just to repeat, negative EPA is bad, even
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: though in other episodes we've used other sites that just
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: flip the positive to the negative to make it good.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: So this is bad. Yes. This is how it should look.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: If it's negative, it's bad. That's about as easy as
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: we can put it for people.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Correct. It gets kind of– I think if you always
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: frame it as like contributing to points, negative is just bad.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: But I just want to point that out. That is
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: why you see what you see. Right. So the eagles
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: are actually– better at the four or fewer. They are
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: significantly better at zero and they are significantly worse at
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: five and six man blitzes than the league and you
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: can see that in the success rate as well um
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: it translates almost exactly the same way right i mean
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: they have a higher success rate than the league average
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: by around five percent and they have like a 23
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: in zero blitz higher success rate defensive success rate but
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: you look at their five and six man, not only
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: do they do it the least like frequent, but pretty
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: low frequency. It's also really poor in EPA and success rate.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Okay. So I see where you're getting with this. We,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: we were talking about, Hey, Vic's been blitzing more the
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: last two weeks because he hasn't generated pressure. Maybe this
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: is something that can help him against Dallas, but your
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: data is saying Vic is looking at the data saying
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: when I blitz more, it's not a good thing. Exactly.
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: Compared to when I rushed four or fewer.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: I was just trying to contextualize essentially the next statistic.
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense. Yeah. Okay.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: Now I get it. I love how you're getting really
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: good at this.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: You're setting us up well.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: So let's continue to set the tone then. Sure. This
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: is what has to go through. This is a great discussion.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Vic's been doing this a long time. He's really smart. Okay.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: He has to then reconcile going into this big Monday
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: night game that the Eagles absolutely need to try to win. Right.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: Do I blitz a quarterback who's struggling against the blitz
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: when my own blitz is not getting home or it's
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: not doing a good enough job compared to when I
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: rush four or fewer? That's the mind game that he
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: had to play with him, right?
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very easy to say Dak's struggling against the blitz,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: so blitz him. But what happens when your blitz is
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: struggling as a relative term? It's not as successful as
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: your four-man rush has been.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's not successful in comparison to the rest
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: of the league, like just in general.
• 21:43
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• 24:05
  Speaker 1: sent you. Now we can see, well, what did Vic
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: decide to do? What did he do, Sam?
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: So... He only blitzed seven times. And of those seven blitzes,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Dak completed two out of six for 33% completion at
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: a passer rating of 42.4. And then the yards per
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: attempt was 2.5. Pressure rate was around 43%. Success rate, again,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: from an offensive standpoint, was 28.6. And his EPA per
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: play was minus 0.5. So you can look at that.
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: That's just this week. I also compiled Dallas's on the
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: season and that include is inclusive of this week because
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: I just, it's such, it's so staggering, right? Basically they
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: had 95, uh, blues dropbacks on the season, 57 for 91, uh,
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: on completion, 62.6% completion, 85.9 passer rating, 5.8 yards per attempt,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: only 39% pressure rate and a four and a 44.2%
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: success rate And EPA per play at minus 0.02. So yes,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: he was struggling against the Blitz. But their performance actually
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: was significantly better, the Eagles, even though it's such a
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: small sample size. Their performance was so much more effective
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: of blitzing Dak. And so the conversation I was really
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: hoping to get into with you was, yes, Fangio has
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: the data on the season. But when he saw that
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: the Blitz was working during the game, He did not
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: stick with it. And I guess to you, I'm going
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: to say is why.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I thought he would blitz more. I,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: I trying to think with like a coach's mind, I
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: thought that Dak struggled in the first half against four
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: man rushes. He just had some, you mentioned the throw
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: where the Eagles had the, the peak win percentage was
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: a bad throw. He had to throw to the right sideline.
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: I think to either lamb or Pickens, that would have
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: been a touchdown, but he, threw it so high. The
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: guy had a jump and, you know, and he fell
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: on his ass as he caught the ball. It was
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: a nice completion, but it was, should have been a touchdown.
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: He had the throw that I mentioned where he just
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: threw it to a guy out of bounds. I, he,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: I get that the three throws he made for touchdowns
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: were really nice throws that they were, I can't deny,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: but I thought he was struggling and I'm thinking Vic,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Vic saw that his offense was actually moving the ball
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: a little bit. You know, in the third quarter, they
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: had the long drive. They're in the game. I'm thinking
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: Vic just didn't think he'd need to do it. I
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: also would say while the metrics here, Sam, that you
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: have say that their blitz was very, very effective, seven
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: might be a small sample size.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: It is. Admittedly, it is a small sample size.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: I also understand that it's not ideal to leave CeeDee Lamb, Pickens,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: even Flournoy is a pretty good slot receiver one-on-one too often,
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: but that's why you're, you've got, you know, Quinn, John
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Mitchell and Cooper to Jean and Reek. And I know
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: they struggled a little bit. It's a, it's a list.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: It's a cat and mouse game. I mean, you can
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: argue that if he had blitzed a lot more than
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: there would have been more one-on-ones. And even if Dak
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: struggles on a bunch, but it hits two or three,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: those are big, big plays.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: But I could argue that maybe you get a turnover
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: out of it. So it's, it's a, it's a, it's
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: a tough call. I think there was a happy medium
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: that Vic didn't want to approach. Yeah.
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at, Dak on the season,
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: none of those numbers are elite, but they're not bad either.
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, on the season, it's not, he struggled for sure.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: And especially for Dak's standard, that is not what you
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: typically see.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: But, and however, I mean, he really struggled against the
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: blitz in that, in that very small sample, like that,
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: those are elite numbers for the Eagles defense. So it
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: begs the question, like, is Fangio so stuck in his
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: ways that, of knowing what.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, and.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: That's not necessarily a bad thing. I say it.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Right, because he's good at what he does, right? Exactly.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: It's tough.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: But was he dynamic enough of a play caller in
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: this game in particular? And look, even the best coaches
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: get these things wrong. But I think when you see
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: success with something, you kind of have to stick with
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: it a little bit, especially when the defense was struggling
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: as much as it was.
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: Yes. So Dak had 27 dropbacks. The only thing I
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: could also add to that was that the Cowboys ran
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: the ball so well. I guess we'd have to look
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: at how much of his 27 dropbacks were conventional shotgun,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: not under center play action. Like how many, how many
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: true blitz opportunities were there? How many third and longs?
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: Cause you don't want to blitz too much on like
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: a third and short or third, you know, and again,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: you know, you don't know if they're going to run
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: or pass in those situations and you sell out, you
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: can get beat deep. And we know that's the last
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: thing that, He wants to do is give up explosives.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: So some of that might be game dictation, but I
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: agree with you. I definitely thought that there would be
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit more aggression, especially when you were getting
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: nothing from anybody in your front four.
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they needed help. The front four was not getting,
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: like I said, they weren't even knocking at the door.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: They couldn't get home, but they couldn't even knock at
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: the door. They really struggled and they needed help.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: We haven't even gotten to the main struggle, Sam, and
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: that would be the run defense breakdown, which was probably
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the most unforeseen part of the game.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it was kind of the central driver.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: of this loss, I would say. It really came on
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: the back of the Cowboys rushing attack, which is something
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: that's a little bit surprising. I mean, even in the pregame,
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: their passing attack was their strength of the offense. And
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: the Eagles rush defense had been, you know, league average,
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit below league average, but it hadn't been
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: to the extent that we saw yesterday. So what I
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: did was I took the Cowboys versus the Eagles and
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys season and compared them. So you look at
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: their rushing yards per game, they were averaging 94.29 and
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: they had 204.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: By the way, does that season count this past game?
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: It does. Is that what you're averaging now? It does.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: So guess what? It was more like closer to 75
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: for the game.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Exactly. So that's even a greater point.
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: And so you look at their rushing EPA per play.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, they were plus 0.13 on the season and
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: they more than doubled it against the Eagles. They were
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: plus 0.29. And then you look at their rushing success.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: They're almost 5% better, 5 percentage points better at 55%. Wow.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, it really just came from nowhere. You know,
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: like this last year, yes, they ran the ball very well.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: It was just, I just could not have predicted they
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: would run the ball like this against the Eagles.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think just a lot of it is
• 31:02
  Speaker 2: the defensive line just not able to win. But, but
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's so many various factors we could analyze
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: and we're probably going to be looking at next couple
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: of weeks. Should this continue? Hoping this is just a one-off.
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, they've had a few of these, right, Sam?
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: If you go back and remember the Atlanta game two
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: years ago when they won the Super Bowl, but they
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: got just steamrolled. They wound up losing that game. Saquon
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: dropped that sure touchdown, and then Kirk Cousins led. But
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: they got steamrolled in the run. Then they came right
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: back the next weekend against New Orleans and did a
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: good job. Last year against the Bears.
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Bears Black Friday was the one they came to win.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: And then they played far better the following week. I mean, listen,
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: there's no excuse for that. They should not have. those
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: kind of numbers at all, ever against the run. But
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: they do typically bounce back from it, I guess. You know,
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: we'll see. This has been a weirder year.
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: Than last year.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: It has been.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: It really has been.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys, listen, some of these numbers I think are,
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: that we're showing here, that say the Cowboys had a
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: positive rushing EPA on the season at plus 13 before the,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: and now it's, or against the Eagles was plus 0.29.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: That's because it counts the Eagles game. They were, I think,
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: closer to zero or even negative before the Eagles game.
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they were. You're right.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's just crazy, right?
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: It's insane. And I think that's an important point because
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: these statistics are inclusive right now. But you're right. It
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: totally– they, like I said, doubled it. They doubled their
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: EPA in this game, which is just unacceptable. Absolutely.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. All right. Two deep shots, zero completions. Eagles passing
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: offense versus Dallas. I'm glad you brought this up because
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: this is something that we, Adam and I, and Greg
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: Cosell discussed about the Eagles offense where, I mean, I
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: don't know. I was driving home from the game. It
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: was late. I was listening to some sports talk radio. And,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: you know, I kind of felt like people were like,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: without calling anyone out, oh, you know, Tyler McKee played
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: pretty well. They talked about the drive in the third quarter,
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: the opening drive, you know, like, making plays to Makai Lemon.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: And I understand that. I do. But I also, I
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: personally was really disappointed with the lack of aggression beyond
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: 10 yards of the field on a night where after
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: the first quarter, you realized your pass protection was actually
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: pretty good, right? I get first quarter. You're trying to
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: get the ball out of his hands. You have no
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: idea what you're getting from Dickerson and Kendall and Markel
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Bell and everything like that. You got no Devante Smith. Okay.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: But as the game settled, Sam, I thought, You got
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: to at some point take some shots here.
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: Well, and it's also the 32nd pass defense in the league.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what I said. Yes. Yeah. Like if they
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: were playing Seattle, I wouldn't have said the same thing,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: even if they were having that success. But yeah, against Dallas,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: of course.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, you look at these stats, I mean,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: they're 0 for 2 on throws, 20 plus air yards,
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: like you said.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: What's worse, the 0 or the 2 in your mind?
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: The 2. Yeah.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: There should have been more chances. They should have been
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: more aggressive. I agree with you completely. But you look
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: at their explosive pass rate and a lot of that,
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: I had the league average explosive pass rate at 14.1.
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: They were below at 10.8. And a lot of those
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: explosive plays were generated after yards after catch. It wasn't
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: anything special by the quarterback position. And I think that's
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: shown by the air yards per attempt. It's 5.1.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Oh my gosh. That's like a run, Sam. A good run. Exactly.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Exactly. And then the net yards per attempt, which is
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: just the passing yards minus sack yards, uh, over drop
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: backs as 5.7 and their EPA, they did a pretty
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: good job having a positive EPA, but you look at
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: the rest of Dallas for the rest of the season. And, uh,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: this is not inclusive of the Eagles. Uh, this is
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: just Dallas on the season. Um, They had 23 completions
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: of 20-plus yards allowed, 34 explosive passes allowed, 7.5 yards
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: per attempt allowed, which is 2.5 more than the Eagles,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: and then 15.7% of opponent attempts of 20-plus yards, and
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: the league rate is 11.3. So they were getting targeted
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: on deep plays at a clip of 4% higher, percentage
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: points higher.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: So let's do the math on it. This is fascinating
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: to me. You said this does not include the Eagles game.
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: So through six games, the Cowboys had allowed 34 explosive passes, right?
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: So my quick math tells me that's about six per game.
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Five to six per game?
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: Okay. And the Eagles got zero and they only tried
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: twice to get an explosive. That's just the part where,
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: all right, look, you got a big arm. You're Tanner McKee.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: You're moving the ball. You're playing one of the worst
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: pass defenses in the league. Take a shot. And I
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: probably put that on Mannion, too, because if you watch
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: the tape, it didn't feel like there were a ton
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: of forverts or aggressive type of routes. And again, I
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: thought they had the opportunity to do that early on,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: you know?
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: Not early, but through second and third quarter, really try
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: to take a shot. We know they don't have Devontae
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Smith and Taye Wicks. It's not like I'm blind to that,
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: but I kind of wanted to see what Darius Cooper,
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: you have Hollywood Brown, they tried to get the ball
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: to him maybe once. Maybe he's cooked. I don't know.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Just would have liked to see more than two.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: You have to try, right? I mean, you have to
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: exploit the weaknesses that the defense has. And they're the
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: weakest team in the league.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: Right, right. Yeah, just a little surprising there. All right,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: let's get into some positive, though. Sour season. I love
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: your titles are great. A sour season. A sweet swat
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: in Week 7. Makai Levin.
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: Now, for our listeners, I do have a little lemon–
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: graphic in the bottom right corner of it.
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: He's creative folks.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: You got to play with what you got. And when
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: you have a player named lemon, you got to, you
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: got to make the lemon puns a little.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Sour season. Very good. Good job.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: So this also is exclusive of week seven for his
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: first stats. Cause I wanted to separate it for just
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: week seven and then weeks one through six, because there's
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: just such a vast difference. And I think it's great explaining.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: So yards per route run on the season, besides week seven,
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: he was 0.68, which is really bad. I think he
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: was like fifth away from the bottom of the list
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: of all qualifying receivers. And then this week he was 1.91,
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: which is not elite, but it's much better.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, much better.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: Plus 1.23 change. And it's a 2.8 X increase from
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: where he was on the season. Right. And then success
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: rate when he's targeted. 34.5 on the season, if you
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: remember that he had a lot of screens that were
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: blown up, which is going to be more reflective in
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: the EPA when I talk about it. But then he
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: went to a 50%. So basically half the time he
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: got the ball, it was a successful play, again, by
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: the metrics of 50% on first, 50% on second, conversion
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: on third, conversion on fourth. But that's a 15.5 percentage
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: point increase just in this game alone. And then EPA
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: per target, which is, in my opinion, the most important
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: metric on here. He was minus 0.13, and again, that's
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: reflective of a lot of the screens that happened, and
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: also some other plays where he was targeted and did
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: not make the catch for whatever reason. But this week,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: he was plus 0.78, and that's like almost a one-point
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: change in EPA.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: That's great. Very good.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: It's just very encouraging signs for Lemon. Yeah. Yeah.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: I was encouraged. I thought he had strong hands and
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: also blocked well. He's tough. He's actually pretty physical for
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: a guy who's probably a slot receiver in the NFL,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: which will help in the long term, Sam, if they continue.
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: And who knows what's going to happen after this year.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: But if they continue to try to run one of
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: these sort of Shanahan-style, McVay-style offenses, you need blocking on
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: the perimeter. It's been a big issue to start the season,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: but not from him. He is willing and able. I
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: like that.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: The last thing here on the 2.8, his season yard.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: So his it's up to 2.8 yards per out now.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: It just if you look at that, it's 2.X off
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: of the zero. 0.68.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: Ah, gotcha. Yeah.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: So he almost three times his production per yard per
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: out run. Right.
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: Very good.
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: All right. So our four big takeaways from this game
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: were what Sam?
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, again, the loss reflected problems on both
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: sides of the ball with run defense and limited explosive offense.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: particularly in the passing game, prominent. Again, the record starts
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: to skid. You're at five losses in a row, first
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: time since 2016. And then Dallas ran the show, again,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: with emphasis on the word ran, 204 rushing yards. Their
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: EPA was plus 0.29, which they doubled it from the
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: rest of their season. They had a greater than 50%
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: success rate, which is insane, particularly for running the ball.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: And then the pass rush fades. They've been almost non-existent
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: on the pass rush really bad. And then no downfield attempts.
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: They weren't aggressive against the worst pass coverage team in
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: the NFL.
• 40:32
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  Speaker 1: and up. And there you have it. That is a
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: look at that game. for all the great metrics and analytics. So,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, if there's two positives, Sam, it's Makai Lemon
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: and you might be getting into Jeremiah Smith territory or
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: maybe even Colin Simpson, the pass rusher. He might be
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: number one of all. Who knows? Because the quarterbacks are
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: dropping like flies in college. Everybody thought it was going
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: to be like three or four or five quarterbacks go.
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: May not be the case now, but wherever the Eagles are,
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: if they continue along this trend, they'll get a pretty
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: good player.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where it's looking right now. It doesn't mean
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: the season can't turn around, but as of now, we're
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: on draft watch.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: That's right.
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: On the next episode, we'll do a quick preview of
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: this upcoming game against the Commanders that I cannot believe
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: the NFL kept in a prime time slot. That's going
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: to do it for this episode of Inside the Data.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: For Sam Finkel, I'm Jeff Mosher. You've been watching Inside
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: the Data on Inside the Birds.