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What Prop Bets For Eagles In 2025 Mean About Team Outlook · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Inside the Birds is back. What's going on? Everybody? It's
0:15
Jeff Mosher Adam Kaplan. We got a really fun podcast here.
0:18
This is Adam's idea. It was a great one. And
0:20
what we're gonna do as we are in the doorstep
0:23
of training camp Eagles training camp which starts next week,
0:26
is we wanted to do a different type of outlook
0:28
on the season. Adam always has these good ideas. Let's
0:31
take some future props on the Eagles, either individually or
0:36
as a team. See what the odds makers are saying
0:39
about the Eagles, and then we kind of rehash it ourselves.
0:42
We see if it's realistic. We kind of picked you
0:45
over under in some of these cases. And what it
0:47
tells Adam is I feel like, even if you're not
0:49
into gambling, but I don't really bet, it gives you
0:52
an idea of how Vegas, which is trying to look
0:55
at this thing objectively. Like we'll analyze the Eagles and
0:58
where we think they are right, where we think they
1:00
are a little off. So let's bring up a great example.
1:03
Right last year, I think when we did this last year,
1:07
you made a remark that should be like etched and
1:09
stone somewhere and shown every Egos fan last year, wasn't
1:12
the prop on Saquon Barkley's rushing very very like low
1:17
for someone of his caliber.
1:19
Speaker 2: Extremely low was depending on which book you looked at.
1:23
Just it was like one thousand and fifty yards.
1:28
Speaker 3: It might have started like even lower than that. I
1:31
think it ended.
1:32
Speaker 2: Around certainly on the eleven hundred. So yeah, I thought
1:35
it was a lock. Now, obviously the books were trying
1:38
to protect themselves with Barkley's injury history, which you know
1:40
was significant. But I remember saying on sports Grid, He's
1:44
going to get it by week eleven or twelve.
1:47
Speaker 3: If he stays healthy. Any I mean, I.
1:49
Speaker 2: Have to look it up at what week he broke
1:51
a thousand? But see, the question is right, we'll get
1:54
to his prop later. Everyone keeps asking us, Okay, they
1:58
could be more of a passing team, Well, it depends.
2:00
Speaker 3: You tell me.
2:01
Speaker 2: It's Barkley playing seventeen games, and I can tell you
2:02
how much to go throw at more or the same.
2:06
That's that's it. They're a running team that's not changing
2:09
as long as as long as Barkley's here, that's not
2:11
going to change. They can't because they're paying them to
2:13
they're they're paying him for the offense to go through.
2:16
Speaker 1: Okay, right, right, and that's also where it's experienced its
2:21
most success that way.
2:22
Speaker 3: So yeah, they want a super Bowl with it. Well,
2:23
they got that to the Super Bowl.
2:25
Speaker 2: They they got helped by the Chiefs asign that they're
2:28
going to not let Barkley beat them and Hurts beat them.
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Speaker 1: So it's it's interesting how that works there. It is,
2:33
all right, So that's good. So I find the Team ones.
2:37
We'll start off with some of the team props that
2:39
we found and you used MGM correct to ye ferrods. Okay,
2:44
these ones are the toughest ones. Really individually, I think
2:47
it is a little bit easier because you can kind
2:48
of forecast what kind of year guy have. But Team ones,
2:52
the schedule changes every year, injuries play apart. But they
2:55
have the Eagles for eleven and a half with that
3:00
is the over under number, with the over at plus
3:02
one oh five and the under at minus one twenty five.
3:06
So I feel like that's interesting that thes uh one
3:10
five for the under because so that means that's more
3:12
of the expected outcome here eleven and a half wins,
3:16
which I kind of agree with. It's it would be difficult.
3:20
It is the Eaglans could win the Super Bowl winning
3:22
eleven games, So it's it's not like a knock on them,
3:25
it's it's gonna be a harder schedule. I think it'd
3:27
be tougher for them to win in that thirteen to
3:29
fifteen win range this year.
3:31
Speaker 3: So if you look at their schedule last year before
3:34
they went to an incredible run of winning sixteen out
3:36
of seventeen, they had the fake home game in Brazil,
3:40
which okay, technically it's a home game, but it was
3:42
not really home. Then they hosted the Falcons, which they lost.
3:45
Speaker 2: That was an awful game, which is not good for anyone.
3:49
Speaker 3: Awful.
3:50
Speaker 2: Then that was the Fanjio game was week three when
3:52
he changed their front. Then everyone was the key players
3:55
were not playing at Tampa. People talk about the House
3:58
of Hars, but there's les contacts. Yeah, we did have
4:00
other players, No they didn't they And it's ironic that
4:04
they're playing them again a week four at Tampa. They'll
4:07
be hot. So they had an actually a very favorable schedule.
4:10
So when you look at this years, it's harder home
4:13
against the Cowboys. Okay, they that this game they should
4:16
win and at KC rematch the Super Bowl host the Rams.
4:20
Speaker 3: We know what happened in the playoffs. It was a
4:21
hell of a game.
4:22
Speaker 2: And again at Tampa they then the Eagles host the
4:25
Southern improved Broncos from last season.
4:27
Speaker 3: So yeah, the schedule is way harder to start the season.
4:31
Speaker 1: Right, I mean, they theoretically could be just as good
4:33
as last year, but not win thirteen or fourteen games.
4:36
That's just right. So that's the nature of it. So
4:39
that is they're over under total eleven and a half.
4:43
In general, I think that's fairly high, even for a
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good team. Right. You very rarely see anybody with an
4:48
over under total to start the year of twelve thirteen
4:51
or fourteen or anything like that.
4:53
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't remember the last time I saw thirteen.
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Speaker 2: Every once in a while you'll see twelve eleven and
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a half.
5:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't play, okay, win loss, win loss game.
5:02
We just take an overview. Now.
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Speaker 2: The Eagles, of course, have been one of the top
5:07
road teams, and Syriani has been here. It's the Eagles
5:11
head coach, so it doesn't really matter where they play.
5:12
They win everywhere, which does matter though when you're looking
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at the overprop that because you know, you look at home, Okay,
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they'll probably go. You'll probably lose one or two games
5:23
at home, But ken they win the road. The answer
5:25
is yes, because they're great on the road. That's not
5:27
a problem for them. They have that portable game plan.
5:28
They they're really well prepared. I would probably go with
5:31
the over though. And again you're getting plus money, so
5:35
you bet a hunter, you get your back back, and
5:37
you get one hundred five and your winning. So that's
5:40
again if you believe it like I do. I believe
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they'll have twelve or thirteen wins. Now that's, of course,
5:46
if the key players are playing. And the other thing is,
5:49
and we've talked about this briefly in the last couple
5:53
of months, the depth is going to be tested at
5:55
some point. I mean, you're not going to stay one
5:56
hundred percent healthy, and that's the key to being a
5:59
really good team kind of depth you have.
6:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, one hundred percent all right, So those that's the
6:03
win total. Let's move on to winning the NFC East.
6:06
They are minus one point fifty to win the NFC East,
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which makes them a pretty heavy favorite, which is interesting
6:14
because you know the oddsmakers will take into account everything,
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including history, and we know that no team has won
6:20
this division back to back in twenty years since the
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Eagles did it in two thousand and three in two
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thousand and four. That's a long long time and there
6:28
are some pretty good teams all throughout the division in
6:32
that span, So that says something. But Vegas is clearly
6:36
telling you that if there's going to be a team
6:38
that does it, they really feel strongly about the Eagles.
6:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one is really strong, and I get it
6:44
like it's we're headed to twenty one years here, depending
6:47
on what happens. But you have to look at those
6:50
twenty years. Washington's it's been awful for the most part,
6:54
right under Daniels, Senator he's out, but they've been bad.
6:57
Now they've turned it around, Let's see if they could
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repeat success. Dallas is wildly consistent. You never know year
7:02
to year what you're getting, and the Giants have been
7:04
one of the class of organizations for years, but they've
7:06
been downtrodden. So yeah, it really sets up the Eagles
7:09
well to win this division if the key players are healthy. Yeah,
7:12
if you We'll get to the rest of the team
7:14
props in a minute. That this one is.
7:16
Speaker 3: I feel a lot stronger about this one than the
7:18
wins prop to be honest.
7:19
Speaker 1: With you, you.
7:21
Speaker 3: Do, yeah, I see, I take the history. I get that.
7:25
But look the Eagles.
7:27
Speaker 2: I know that they're gonna have a minimum five new
7:28
defensive starters, but they have a new offense coordinator who
7:33
hasn't cold plays before. But Fangio's back. The key players
7:37
on offense, they're all back right now. They're questions on defense.
7:41
So yeah, you like, you could say, Okay, they're not
7:43
a fourteen win team. They're fourteen three last season, somewhere
7:47
to me around eleven or twelve, right, But are they
7:50
they're the class of the division. I mean, I well, oh,
7:53
let's put it this way. If you don't think they're
7:54
gonna win, who's gonna win the division?
7:56
Speaker 1: Yeah that's a good point, you know. I say, I
7:57
could see the Eagles winning the division at a games
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and that would be under the eleven and a half,
8:03
but it would still be the winner of the NFC.
8:05
So you're right. I would say winning the division teams
8:08
like a safer bet than the eleven and a half
8:11
over under because you don't need to win the division
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potentially with twelve wins because the teams might just beat
8:17
up on each other a little bit. You know, we've
8:19
now got the NFC's being a little better.
8:22
Speaker 2: Washington's schedule is much We're favorable for the first five
8:26
weeks or four weeks, host the Giants at the Packers,
8:30
they host the Raiders, and they are then they're at Atlanta.
8:33
I mean that that is much easier than the Eagles schedule, right,
8:37
and it would behoove them, if you're Washington boy, to
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get up to the great start so you can hang
8:42
in there.
8:42
Speaker 3: For the division. So we'll see what happens.
8:45
Speaker 2: And overall, Eagles have a tougher schedule based on what
8:48
the way these teams look this season.
8:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, but who's Washington's AFC game? Like the extra AFC game, Like.
8:55
Speaker 2: I'll give you all ye, I'll give you their AFC games.
8:59
There the Chargers. Week five, we kate, they're at the Chiefs.
9:05
Week eleven, they're at Miami, they host the after they're buying.
9:08
Week twelve with late By, they host the Broncos.
9:12
Speaker 3: So that those are the Yeah, there's Miami.
9:14
Speaker 1: Miami is the extra game for them? Then, right, the
9:16
extra AFC game because it's not the it's the non AFC.
9:20
Speaker 3: One, right, It's yeah, it's a yeah exactly. Yeah.
9:24
Speaker 1: For the Eagles, it's the bills for the Eagles, the
9:27
bills for them, it's Miami. So that makes a huge difference,
9:29
right then and there. Yeah, Mimmy's stuck in neutral. They
9:33
don't know who they are what they want to be there.
9:36
Speaker 3: They'd seem to be like a disaster. But yeah, now
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if you don't think he was gonna win the division,
9:40
you have to go with Washington.
9:42
Speaker 2: I'm just based on the way things are going right,
9:45
I just cannot see Dallas winning the division. They have
9:49
a lot of talent, but they they just don't.
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Speaker 3: They're not. They never were.
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Speaker 2: They rarely achieve their talent status like they don't. It
9:59
looks great on paper until they actually play and they're
10:02
wildly consistent. You look at the roster, go, wow, this
10:04
is pretty good roster. For whatever reason, they don't get there.
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Speaker 1: All right, good, good, all right. So let's move on
10:10
to the conference. They have, interestingly, the same exact odds
10:14
to be the number one seed in the NFC as
10:17
they do to win the NFC and go to the
10:19
Super Bowl, and that's plus three twenty five, which Hey,
10:25
if you really think the Eagles are going back, this
10:27
is a good good way to make money. If you're
10:29
that that you know, I guess convicted in it.
10:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's it's.
10:37
Speaker 2: It's And look, they could they could get to the
10:39
super Bowl without being a number one seed, winning the
10:42
winning the NFC at plus three twenty five.
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Speaker 3: I think it's a fair number. I do, I do.
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Speaker 2: I just think the NFC East one is a little
10:52
stronger for me. I'm not worrying about the twenty years.
10:55
I know it's ridiculous for you only four teams in
10:57
the division. How the hell is is possible back back winner?
11:01
This the Eagles won four in a row oh one
11:02
for roh four right, But yeah, to now to be
11:08
the number one seed, see I I'm not I I
11:12
don't think it would really matter too much for the
11:14
Eagles if they're not the number one see because again
11:16
because there's such a good road team. But if they
11:19
have the key players, they could win anywhere. That's the
11:21
most One of the most impressive things that not talked
11:23
about enough is how great Eagles have been on the
11:25
road under Syrian, A top three road team.
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Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable.
11:29
Speaker 2: I gave also by the way Dan Campbell this thing.
11:32
They were one of the worst road teams in NFL
11:34
history before he took over. Now, the first year was terrible,
11:37
but they went on the road. I mean, hell, they
11:38
were fifteen to two last season.
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Speaker 3: So you know, if you if you're the Eagles, you
11:43
you know, it's not easy to go to Detroit, short
11:45
short airplane ride about an hour. But again, they could
11:48
do this. They the Eagles have shown Detroit, shown that
11:51
they could win on the road.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's true. So maybe you'd probably feel more confident
11:55
putting your money on them to win the NFC and
11:58
don't try to do it as to be the number
11:59
one because they can easily win the NFC without being
12:03
the home home field team exactly, all right, cool cool?
12:07
And by the way, you could be the home field team, right.
12:09
Weren't they the home field team last year as the
12:11
number two seed because the Lions got knocked off by yeah.
12:15
Speaker 3: Washington, Yeah Washington smoker.
12:17
Speaker 1: Yeah right, So they were sort of like liking number
12:19
one seed, but really weren't because they were the number two,
12:22
all right, And then to win the Super Bowl. As
12:24
we finish it off, you're at plus six fifty. That's
12:27
the shortest odds of all thirty two teams. So that
12:31
means right now, the odds makers see the Eagles as
12:35
the best opportunity to win the Super Bowl.
12:38
Speaker 2: Yeah, plus six fifty, So you bet a hunter, you
12:41
get your hunter back if you win and you get
12:43
six to fifty is if you win the Bats.
12:45
Speaker 3: So yeah, they have the shortest odds. They're the favorite
12:48
to win the Super Bowl. Again.
12:49
Speaker 2: That's to be back to back. That one surprises me.
12:53
I thought it would be a little longer because of
12:54
all the changes. Sometimes the odds makers totally don't understand
12:59
how much change means.
13:01
Speaker 3: They just go by what happened last year. None understand
13:04
about all the change.
13:06
Speaker 2: Now, the question is, Okay, if you don't think the
13:09
Eagles are going to win the Super Bowl, who do
13:11
you like?
13:12
Speaker 3: Could Buffalo finally to get there?
13:14
Speaker 2: They're they're great in the regular season, okay, the postseason,
13:18
but they just they haven't even they haven't got Super Bowl.
13:20
Yeah and City they were fifteen to two. But man,
13:24
now their issue was their offensive line was dreadful. They
13:27
went through four left tackles. Now they think they've solved it.
13:29
They kind of over solved it with Simmons and Jalen
13:32
Moore and Jalen More. I wouldn't surprised me he wants
13:36
it being the right tackle because Simmons looks like he's
13:38
got a real shot to be ready for the regular
13:40
season coming back to the tele injury.
13:42
Speaker 3: But yeah, but Baltimore man Lamar was unbelievable.
13:47
Speaker 1: That would be I'm not my team, but that would
13:50
be the team that if I were the odds makers,
13:53
because of everybody that they retained from last year and
13:57
then they added in the off season, I just feel
14:01
like the Baltimore has the strongest overall fifty three and
14:04
at least amount of questions right.
14:06
Speaker 2: Now, I would agree. Yeah, I would probably go with Baltimore.
14:09
The Lions two new coordinators, lack of a pass rush,
14:12
they'll be good.
14:13
Speaker 3: But I'm just not I'm just not on them like
14:16
I was the past couple of years.
14:18
Speaker 2: I see a problem where the jam is great, Bradjlmes
14:21
is really good, but for him not to address of
14:23
the pass rush issue, I don't get it.
14:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we'll see what they do with the deadline.
14:27
But I agree with you. I think even the loss
14:29
of the coordinators makes you wonder can they can? They
14:32
had such an amazing year, not just a good year,
14:34
but just a prolific year offensively that you wonder can
14:37
they keep that up year after year? But maybe they
14:41
don't need to. Maybe they'll be healthier on defense and
14:42
won't have to score thirty five points a game. But
14:45
I would definitely put the Eagles, the Ravens, and the
14:47
Lions as probably in that elite company of I'm not
14:51
trying to disrespect the Chiefs. I just think that they're
14:54
gonna win a lot of games. But I don't know.
14:56
It's hard to recover from getting your ass kicked the
14:58
way you did in the Super Bowl like that, you know.
15:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're going to have a new, a
15:02
revamped left tackle situation. I know they want to open
15:06
up the offense and we'll see, but this one is
15:09
pretty open, man. I'm not again. The Eagles can make it.
15:14
Absolutely could make another run to the Super Bowl. It's
15:17
one of these situations. And I know training camp can
15:19
fool us. Sometimes you think you see something, man, it
15:22
becomes the exact opposite that. Sometimes you think the team
15:26
is really good and they're not. That the training camp
15:28
can fool you. But I'm interested to see what when
15:31
it comes to the Eagles. How all these changes on
15:33
defense with the new players and having one of the
15:36
top three youngest teams in the National Football League on defense,
15:40
what it looks like.
15:41
Speaker 3: I'm very interested to see that.
15:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too, all right, So let's go into the
15:45
individual ones, and the Jalen Hurts ones are really interesting
15:49
and challenging, I would say.
15:52
Speaker 3: So.
15:52
Speaker 1: First of all, if there's a the rushing prop on
15:55
Jalen Hurts is six hundred and five, it's basically the same.
16:01
It's over that as one minus one ten, and under
16:04
that is minus one ten, which is the biggest way
16:05
of saying this is a fifty to fifty shot here.
16:07
It could be either or So six hundred is an
16:10
interesting number. And if you look at his history of rushing,
16:14
like last year he was at six thirty, the year
16:17
before six oh five, and the two years before that
16:19
he was over seven hundred yards. So if you just
16:22
look at the last four years his entire body of starting,
16:25
you say, there's no way he doesn't rush for over
16:27
six hundred yards.
16:28
Speaker 2: Well done it right now, And again last year he'd
16:31
missed two regular season games and had six thirty.
16:34
Speaker 1: Yep.
16:36
Speaker 2: Now, the the the only thing is here is that.
16:40
Speaker 3: And we said this at the top.
16:42
Speaker 2: I strongly believe they're gonna throw the ball more, but
16:44
it's impossible to get a good percentage higher. It depends
16:48
on if Barclay Barkley did miss a game dude injury
16:50
last season. Right, you would think teams being able to
16:53
study the way the Eagles with their plan is and
16:55
see what the Chiefs did. She shut down Barklay's Super Bowl.
16:59
It hurts through the ball, right, But the question is
17:02
if we know Hurts is still a meaningful part of
17:05
the running game. It's to me it's gonna be similar
17:10
to last season. I don't see much of a change
17:11
other than they might throw a little bit more. Now,
17:13
it doesn't mean that Hurts can't run the ball well
17:15
when he runs it. So yeah, I would agree with
17:18
you to move this along here. If I had to
17:20
take a side, I would take the over.
17:22
Speaker 1: I went as well, all right, So the next one
17:25
for him would be passing yards thirty two hundred point
17:28
five passing yards once again, one ten over, one ten under.
17:32
So they're telling you just as likely to do one
17:35
or the other thirty two hundred yards at him. How
17:37
many yards do you think, Maybe you know offhand. I'm
17:39
just gonna quizz you. Do you know how many passing
17:42
yards Jalan Hurts through four last year?
17:44
Speaker 2: I know is extremely low. I mean he had he
17:47
had a career low on attempts for a full season.
17:50
It definitely was under three thousand. I don't remember what
17:52
the number one.
17:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty nine three isn't that crazy? Do you know
17:57
how far you have to go back? Who find a
18:01
quarterback who won the super Bowl? It's passing for a
18:03
starting quarterback who've started like twelve games in a year
18:06
at least, who won a super Bowl but didn't pass
18:08
for three thousand yards. It's doesn't happen very often.
18:11
Speaker 3: No, I mean, look, it worked right, it worked in
18:15
the NFL.
18:16
Speaker 2: If it works and you want a super Bowl with
18:17
it and having Hurts throw less, it goes through Barkley,
18:22
you win more. He goes around the ball more than
18:24
they throw it in the first half at games, which
18:25
is something we thought we never would hear or Jay,
18:30
he was more accurate, you know, I know people like
18:34
to point it out.
18:35
Speaker 3: That's great. I mean that that helps wouldn't turn it over.
18:37
He only he only turned the ball over in terms
18:38
of throwing at five times that's great, right, interception rate
18:41
was lower.
18:43
Speaker 1: But.
18:45
Speaker 3: You've got Smith and Godard's back, and you've got a J.
18:47
Brown of course.
18:48
Speaker 2: So now I look at this number and the odds
18:52
makers are thinking, like I am, there, there's no way
18:54
he's under three thousand yards this season. Now here's the
18:58
problem with that, though, They're going to thirty two hundred
19:00
point five. Well, here's the question. So Browns traded to
19:07
the Eagles. First year, Hurts was phenomenal, thirty seven oh
19:10
one right right now. The next year, because Hurts was great,
19:15
they went crazy that the pass attempts were way up there.
19:18
Hurt struggled and had individual good games, but overall.
19:22
Speaker 3: It was disappointed. The tape was not great.
19:24
Speaker 2: We know, we talked to so many people who told
19:25
us it's the same thing, right, you just it wasn't
19:28
It wasn't just him. It was just a lot around him,
19:31
coaching and all that. So how he made a decision
19:34
to bring in Barclay took the ball to Hurts his hands.
19:36
Speaker 3: It worked.
19:37
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean you can't throw the ball a little
19:39
bit more. See I twenty nine oh three was his number.
19:42
And by the way, he missed two games. See this
19:44
is he he missed two games, and so maybe he
19:48
would have thrown for thirty two hundred. You know, in fact,
19:51
he probably would have because I mean, I know, it's crazy.
19:54
Even he's thrown for less than one hundred fifty yards
19:56
a game, but you got to throw it for one hundred
19:58
and fift yard a game on average. Come on, that's
20:00
gonna happen. Yeah, I would probably take over. That's what
20:03
I would do, But I don't love it.
20:05
Speaker 1: I agree with you, is it Barkley? I agree with you.
20:08
It's also an injury dependent stat, like he would have
20:11
thrown for more than three thousand yards last year. Oh yeah,
20:14
he played one or two more game. What do he
20:16
wound up missing like two starts and then he got
20:18
rested in the season finale.
20:20
Speaker 3: So only two games. He only missed two games.
20:23
Speaker 1: Only those three games, right, So it makes you kind
20:25
of like, is that gonna happen again? He does run
20:27
the ball, He takes a lot of it's takes a
20:29
lot of sacks, by the way. You know, that's another
20:32
thing where you have to evaluate it.
20:33
Speaker 3: That was surprising that think about this. He dropped back.
20:37
Speaker 2: Okay, he attempted four hundred and sixty passes in his
20:40
great year and twenty two he got sacked thirty eight times.
20:44
He got sacked thirty eight times last year. Was I mean,
20:46
you're talking about way less drop backs, way less passes,
20:49
almost a hundred fewer attempts.
20:51
Speaker 3: No sacks.
20:52
Speaker 2: Are individual players you have to find out, you have
20:55
to ask. Yes, the sack rate was was almost was
20:59
nine and a half, which is not good.
21:00
Speaker 1: But it's crazy. By the way, you very infrequently find
21:05
a quarterback as successful with him with a sack rate
21:08
that high.
21:08
Speaker 2: I know, but you have to, as people have told
21:11
it to you, every play has to be individualized in
21:13
terms of your evaluation.
21:14
Speaker 3: Okay, who was it on? Was it only the lineman
21:17
or the quarterback?
21:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we watched enough tape to know last year
21:20
that I mean, and we know that how good the
21:21
offensive line is. It was really a case of where
21:23
if you just didn't see it, he didn't throw it,
21:25
and he was really good at protecting the ball while
21:28
taking sacks. That nine and a half percentages as much
21:30
on him as it is on any line.
21:33
Speaker 2: Right, you just said it though, So he might have
21:35
taken maybe he should have got rid of it, but
21:37
he didn't throw a pick that that's the positive of it. Yes,
21:40
you should not be getting sacked thirty eight times and
21:43
you're only dropping back three sixty one for the season.
21:45
Speaker 3: That's not good.
21:45
Speaker 2: But again he two years ago in twenty three the
21:50
interception some of them were You're like, man, what are
21:52
you doing?
21:52
Speaker 1: Well?
21:53
Speaker 3: He didn't have that last year.
21:54
Speaker 1: Right, That's what I just think. The only thing you
21:56
have to wonder, if you're placing money or just trying
21:59
to outlook, is is he really good at protecting the
22:04
ball while getting sacked, not fumbling, not throwing interceptions, and
22:08
will that be him for the rest of his career
22:10
or was that a little bit flucish because again, there's
22:12
not a lot of guys who get hit that much
22:14
who don't turn the ball over frequently. So because he
22:19
didn't take sacks like this two years ago or even
22:21
the year before that, this the nine point five to
22:23
two is so much higher than in twenty twenty three
22:27
when it was six two seven, and twenty twenty two
22:29
when it was seven to sixty three that you have
22:31
to question sort of the flukeishness and the anomaly of it,
22:34
and which direction it's going to go in when it
22:36
evens itself out. Is he gonna be more thrown or
22:39
is he gonna take less sacks and be a little
22:41
bit more you know, see it a little more clearly,
22:44
Well only what you.
22:44
Speaker 3: Just said it is seeing a little bit more clearly.
22:46
You know.
22:47
Speaker 2: He this, let's not forget this is only his fifth
22:49
year as at starting NFL quarterback, fifth up full year, yep.
22:53
And yes they have a new play caller, his sixth
22:55
in the National Football League. But the thing is you
22:58
learn as you go along at this position, and so
23:00
the hope is he'll have a little bit better feel
23:02
about want to get rid of the football. But the thing,
23:05
it's funny we talk about this. I just sticklarly remember
23:08
us talking about it. In fact with Greg Cosel, I
23:11
was very clear, Yes he did take thirty eight sacks,
23:15
but overall in terms of not tearing it over, get
23:17
rid of it, get rid of it, don't take, don't
23:19
make the bad decision, and that.
23:20
Speaker 3: That's it was very clear that he was coached to
23:22
that to do that.
23:23
Speaker 1: One hundred percent all right passing touchdowns. As we finished
23:26
off Jalen Hurts in nineteen and a half, the over
23:29
is minus one thirty under his plus one ten, so
23:32
their Vegas odds makers are telling you more likely to
23:35
be under the nineteen and a half touchdowns, which makes
23:39
somewhat sense. I mean, last year he was at eighteen touchdowns.
23:43
Again missed two games, so he might have been able
23:45
to get over it based on his average, but that
23:48
was the case, and then the two years before that
23:50
twenty three touchdowns, twenty two touchdowns. So he's going to
23:52
be in that eighteen to twenty one range most likely,
23:56
if unless it's like a flucish season.
24:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't like this one at all because of
24:02
Barkley's presence. If if they had, like you know, it
24:06
was Dylan and will Shipley at running back.
24:08
Speaker 3: Different story.
24:09
Speaker 2: They're gonna they're gonna go it's gonna be looked like
24:10
twenty two. They're gonna it's gonna be bombs away. But
24:13
now with Barklay there, So yeah, I don't like this one.
24:15
And this is one of those NP's no plays got it.
24:18
Speaker 1: By the way, A great stat for you historical stat.
24:21
Do you think you can name the last quarterback who
24:23
won a Super Bowl throwing eighteen or fewer touchdowns and
24:28
throwing for twenty nine hundred and three or fewer yards
24:30
basically Jalen Hurts's passing stats last year, the last person
24:34
to win it. No, I can't almost twenty years Ben Roethlisberger.
24:40
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, they hit they were hiding him. I remember
24:42
that one.
24:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then before that. Yeah. I could give you
24:45
a probably fifty guests as you wist Dilfer. I don't
24:47
know Phil Simms in nineteen ninety. That just shows you
24:51
how we're only seven quarterbacks in the history of the
24:53
game have won a Super Bowl with those kinds of.
24:55
Speaker 3: Now, was that to you he got hurt and Jeff
24:56
Hostetler played or is I don't remember.
24:58
Speaker 1: No, I think that's the nineteen I thought the first
25:01
one was it. He started fourteen games.
25:03
Speaker 3: That year, Okay, okay, now I don't remember.
25:05
Speaker 1: It could have been the hostelity, but I thought he
25:07
missed more games the hostelary year.
25:09
Speaker 3: But oh yeah he broke Yeah, he broke his foot
25:11
or leg.
25:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, then the seven quarterbacks are Hurts, Roethlisberger,
25:14
Phil Simms, Rogers, Stallback, Terry Bradshaw, up, Rob Greasy and
25:17
Johnny Unitis. So interestingly, wow, yeah, talk about a throwback
25:23
some good company.
25:24
Speaker 3: It's interesting. Yeah, yeah, Hall fingers in there.
25:28
Speaker 1: Say Kwon Parkley, we move on to him and maybe
25:29
you can be h you know, Kaplin Stradamus again for
25:33
the second straight year. This time the number is a
25:35
lot more reasonable. His rushts are fifteen hundred point five over.
25:40
That is plus one hundred under, that is minus one
25:42
twenty odds. Makers are saying, yeah, he's capable of this,
25:45
but it wouldn't surprise if he fell short of fifteen hundred. Yeah,
25:49
and he he.
25:50
Speaker 2: Was rested the one week he still got over two
25:53
thousand and two thousand and five. Obviously he's not getting
25:55
that again, It's never happened. So he's Look if if
26:03
you play fifteen games, he's going over fifteen hundred. If
26:06
I had to take a side, I don't love this one.
26:09
I know history is not great for the guys repeating
26:11
that success in terms of just having another dominant year. Uh,
26:16
with sae Quon's injury history, gonna be tough.
26:19
Speaker 1: That's what scares me.
26:20
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's tough. This would be no play to me.
26:24
But if I had to do it, I would take
26:25
the over plus one hundred just because See the thing
26:28
with him is he's so gifted, so dynamic, and you
26:32
know he's gonna have a couple two hundred yard games
26:34
here or there.
26:35
Speaker 3: That's gonna happen with this offensive line. Yeah, but everything
26:39
around him has got to be great.
26:40
Speaker 2: We don't know about right guard, you know, we don't
26:42
know yet how it's gonna look. That that's a concern.
26:45
It's a small concern. Lane Johnson. He had another year
26:49
under his belt. He's great, he's elite, but he's up
26:52
there in age you weren't. Could everything be so perfect again?
26:56
That that's that's that's kind of like giving a reason
26:59
to go the under. But to me, if he plays
27:02
fifteen games, he's getting over fifteen hundred. He's that dominant
27:05
and that special with this offensive line, yeah.
27:08
Speaker 1: I would agree, But it's a no play or an
27:10
under for me because I guess I would be leery
27:13
of him playing fifteen games again. I mean, you got
27:16
it once.
27:16
Speaker 3: It was great.
27:17
Speaker 1: Can you get that again? Maybe? Possibly? But I wouldn't
27:20
put money on it to see no play?
27:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't. I don't. You always look for value
27:26
when you do these. I call these fantasy props.
27:28
Speaker 1: Yep.
27:30
Speaker 2: These are pretty tight, man, to be honest with you,
27:32
these are not like great.
27:33
Speaker 1: I know he's gonna be for a lot of people
27:35
the number one overall pick in fantasy football. I would not.
27:38
I would, I would. I would just be a little
27:41
leery of it. I'd probably be a little lean, a
27:42
little bit more toward maybe Jamior Gibbs if it's PPR,
27:45
especially just because just because of the injury history. I mean,
27:48
I know, I know you should be scared of that stuff,
27:50
but it plays a role.
27:52
Speaker 3: It does. I mean, it's at that position. He kid
27:55
me your target to get hit.
27:57
Speaker 2: So yeah, and then okay, the rushing the rushing team
28:00
for Barkley eleven and a half, the overs minus one
28:03
twenty five, the under. The under is plus one oh five.
28:09
So I get the odds maker's thicket. It's gonna go
28:13
over now. He had thirteen rushing touchdowns last season.
28:16
Speaker 3: Two receiving.
28:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I don't know to Jalen Hurts and the
28:21
touch push and let's say he Dylan makes the team
28:24
and he's a short yardage guy, that's a no play
28:26
for me.
28:28
Speaker 3: Yeah. By the way, the the rushing I couldnt find
28:30
the rushing TD prop for Hurts.
28:32
Speaker 2: So we'll have it. Everything gets out by late August.
28:35
All the books put them out, but they don't. They
28:37
don't have a lot of motivation to put the the
28:39
ones it should be up, but they're not out yet.
28:41
But yeah, so this one with Barkley, Yeah, if.
28:49
Speaker 3: I had a good I would go under plus one five.
28:51
Speaker 1: If you put a gun to my head and made
28:52
me wager, I probably wager the under as well. All right,
28:56
aj Brown his receiving yards eleven and fifty point five
29:01
and over and under the same at minus one ten.
29:05
I feel like last year, remember he missed a couple
29:07
of games with the hamstring early on, he only played
29:09
thirteen games, and he still got to one thousand, seventy nine.
29:12
Like his numbers, his advanced stats are all pretty good.
29:15
He had the highest catch percentage of his year. He
29:18
had a really high second highest yards per target of
29:21
his career. So I'm not afraid of this. He's right
29:25
up there eighty three yards per game last year, which
29:28
is higher than his career average. I'm absolutely not afraid
29:31
of the eleven fifty if you put a gun to
29:33
my head, and maybe again you worry about the knee
29:36
and the injury year after the year. But he's been
29:38
great so far, so I don't have no problem going
29:40
over eleven to fifty.
29:41
Speaker 3: On this, Yeah, I probably would. It probably would.
29:46
Speaker 2: He did mess four games that the last game because
29:48
they didn't need him to play against the Giants, right,
29:51
and then he had the injury early in the season.
29:54
He stilled five games one, two, three, fourth, five games
29:56
of ever one hundred yards. Now, the targets we're still
30:04
per game pretty pretty solid because you know, it starts
30:07
with him.
30:08
Speaker 3: That's pretty much the past target treat. It's going He's
30:11
gonna lead it.
30:12
Speaker 1: Yeah.
30:13
Speaker 2: So yeah, if I had to take a side, I
30:16
like it mildly, mildly that it's minus one ten either
30:20
way or the over eleven fifty point five. Yeah, son
30:23
eleven fifty one on the over, I would lean towards
30:26
that way.
30:27
Speaker 1: Right now, the touchdowns are seven and a half with
30:29
an over of plus one hundred and under of minus
30:31
one twenty. It's kind of a no play for me
30:33
only because he's These are hard for wide receivers. I
30:36
mean there's been years where he's had double digits eleven eleven,
30:39
there's been years where he's got seven at seven. He's
30:41
had great years. You know, he had fourteen hundred and
30:44
fifty six yards two years ago, but only seven touchdowns.
30:47
So just because of the way you leave that, the
30:50
way he has to scare touchdowns right with god Her
30:53
and with DeVante Smith and with the running backs and
30:56
with Hurts. Still, I don't like to have to put
30:59
money on that.
31:00
Speaker 2: I would take the over because in twenty two we
31:04
got it was his first year, the league, didn't know
31:06
what was coming, and he was incredible. He tied his
31:08
career high, which he had in Tennessee in twenty twenty
31:10
for eleven touchdowns the last two seasons seven each seven
31:15
last year with missing four games, and they were a
31:18
low vying pass team terms of attempts. But he isn't
31:23
He's so difficult to play now. I wish it was seven,
31:27
not seven and a half because you could get a
31:30
push at seven to get your money back. The over
31:32
seven and a half is plus one hundred, the owners
31:34
minus one twenty.
31:36
Speaker 3: Could he get eight touchdowns? Yes, I would have very
31:38
small leanto it the over.
31:40
Speaker 1: Okay, I don't.
31:41
Speaker 3: Don't love it.
31:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know where my value. I just don't
31:46
like it. In general. I'm trying to figure out where
31:48
my leen would be and I'm just I don't know
31:49
where i'd lean, So I just would I wouldn't touch it.
31:52
All right, let's finish off with Devant Tase Smith. I
31:56
think this one's a really good one to jump on.
31:58
Receiving yards eight point fifty and a half the over
32:01
and under the same minus one ten. Last year he
32:05
had eight thirty three, but he also missed two games.
32:08
I mean he's generally four.
32:09
Speaker 3: By the way, he missed four.
32:11
Speaker 1: Sorry I was doing the wrong math. Yeah, four games.
32:13
I would pound the over.
32:15
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, come on, he had eight thirty three and thirteen.
32:21
I just it's very hard to forecast in terms of
32:25
past attempt for Hurts because it goes through Barkley. But again,
32:29
we don't see Barkley being as successful for one reason
32:33
or another, just because of terms of total yardage. Yeah,
32:37
I hate the word lock, but this is this to
32:40
me of Hurts, Barkley, Brown, and Smitty.
32:45
Speaker 3: I love this over. I'm with you totally.
32:46
Speaker 2: The the the eight So you need eight fifty one yards, yeah.
32:52
Speaker 3: To get it?
32:52
Speaker 2: And you're for each one ten you bet you get,
32:54
you get a hundred plus your betback, so you win
32:56
one hundred, you lose the jews, you know, the one
32:59
hundred and the one ten.
33:00
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the over.
33:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too, And you know what I do in
33:03
the touchdowns a little bit dice yere. It's six and
33:05
a half, which means you gotta you need seven to
33:07
win over his plus one hundred under his minus one twenty,
33:11
and he is right around that for his career. He's
33:13
at the second year he had seven, third year he
33:15
had seven, last year at eight. I still would lean
33:17
toward the over. I just I think DeVante Smith is
33:20
really consistent and as long as he's healthy, I think
33:22
he's gonna put up those kind of numbers. So I
33:24
would I would still go with you if you made
33:26
me pick touchdown catches, which I always hate to do
33:29
for receivers, I would still take the over.
33:31
Speaker 2: I'm surprised, man, I thought he'd be like because he
33:33
wasn't twenty one his rookie season, five touchdowns, I mean seven,
33:37
seven and eight after that. Yeah, don't surprise me, man.
33:40
It's it's not what you would think because he's not
33:43
a J. Brown in terms of physical strength, right, but
33:46
we know how tough he is man, and he's got
33:48
great body control. That's the big thing for him.
33:52
Speaker 3: Seven.
33:54
Speaker 2: The over six and a half is plus one hundred.
33:57
The owners minus one twenty. I would have a small
33:59
leans hears the over my my thing. You and I
34:02
are seeing this completely the same. The receiving yards is it, man,
34:05
I don't. I just don't see it. I don't see
34:08
any way that he's not going over. I don't see
34:11
anyway he doesn't get at least eight fifty one if
34:13
you play fifteen games.
34:15
Speaker 1: I still think and you see this a lot with
34:17
ride receivers who are good in the year three, four
34:19
or five, where you get that that takeoff year, kind
34:23
of like a J. Brown's first year with the Eagles.
34:25
I think DeVante Smith has that that thirteen hundred, you know,
34:28
ten touchdown. I think he could. Yeah, he's that J.
34:32
Speaker 3: Brown and Goddard and they don't. They're a low volume pass.
34:34
Speaker 1: And some of that is also injury dependent on how
34:36
the offense is looking. But I think he's that good
34:38
of a player to be able to do it. You're right,
34:40
the opportunity has and I think at some point it's
34:44
going to so I would I would do it. I would.
34:47
I would.
34:48
Speaker 2: Let's put this one in the in the one season
34:51
that they were passing offense super what in terms of
34:55
success and that the league just couldn't figure out what
34:57
they were doing.
34:58
Speaker 3: Smith was unstoppable.
34:59
Speaker 2: He played every game yep in twenty twenty two, eleven
35:02
ninety six.
35:03
Speaker 3: Last the next year, all.
35:04
Speaker 2: The issues we don't need to relive that season. Everything collapsed,
35:09
the offense which seemed to be mid season solid, and
35:13
then the regression started and it was it bottomed out.
35:16
He's still ten to sixty six. Dvante did so, Yeah,
35:20
I hear you, But this one is because of It's
35:24
not like it's not like he's a third target.
35:28
Speaker 3: He's number two, right, And then.
35:31
Speaker 1: All it takes is kind of like that Washington game.
35:33
All it takes is like maybe one game where you've explode,
35:35
you have two or three touchdowns, and then you're half
35:37
almost halfway to your mark for the year. All right.
35:40
Finishing off on defense, Jahad Campbell, this is just a
35:43
rookie of the year future problem plus a defensive rookie
35:47
of the year plus eighteen hundred. I mean, it's tantalizing
35:50
to throw a few bucks on something that that's plus
35:53
eighteen hundred, But I mean he's not if he's gonna
35:57
play inside linebacker and start off that way and then
35:59
only be a rotational edge. It's it's gonna be hard
36:01
to win defensive Rookie of the Year. I just don't
36:03
see it.
36:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I don't see it now. Eventually down the line,
36:10
he could be incredibly like he could be a dominant
36:14
football player because they don't know what they're going to
36:17
do with him past the season. They have a ballpark
36:19
idea what to look like this season, but past the season,
36:22
they may not need him to play.
36:23
Speaker 3: Edge at all.
36:24
Speaker 2: Right, I mean, it just depends on how it goes
36:27
and his learning and how healthy he is.
36:30
Speaker 3: But there's so much talent with this guy. I'm looking
36:32
forward for him to not.
36:34
Speaker 2: Only see what we see this season, but in future seasons,
36:38
what his role is going to be, how they use
36:39
him and hopefully Fanjo doesn't retire for the next one
36:42
or two years. You know, I'm very curious Vic sees
36:45
it differently than others do, as we know, so very
36:49
curious to see how he deploys them.
36:51
Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, that was fun. That was a good
36:52
look at the Eagles what the expectations are both individually
36:55
and as a team. And that's going to do it
36:57
for this episode of Inside the the Leading Podcast and
37:01
Eagles Intel and as always, we thank you for flying
37:04
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