Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / The Entire AI Trade Comes Down to One Number
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- 1:03Speaker 1: This is the Financial Exchange with Chuck Zada and Mark Fandetti, Chuck.
- 1:10Speaker 2: Mark and Tucker with you and not out of line
- 1:14Speaker 2: to say that today he's gonna be one of the
- 1:18Speaker 2: more exciting days in markets, not because they're necessarily moving
- 1:23Speaker 2: a lot. The interesting thing is a lot of times
- 1:26Speaker 2: on FED days you might see big intra day volatility,
- 1:29Speaker 2: but ultimately markets don't necessarily move a ton once you
- 1:32Speaker 2: get to the close. But the big thing is you've
- 1:34Speaker 2: got a FED meeting today that is going to have
- 1:38Speaker 2: a two o'clock announcement as to FED policy. And then
- 1:44Speaker 2: you've got a two thirty pm press conference by Jerome
- 1:46Speaker 2: Powell that is very likely to be his last press
- 1:50Speaker 2: conference running the FED. So one last purple tie for
- 1:55Speaker 2: j Powell. Do we have any predictions on pattern or
- 1:59Speaker 2: shade of purple?
- 2:02Speaker 3: No?
- 2:02Speaker 4: I thought it was the same tie every time.
- 2:03Speaker 2: No, it's not the same tie. That's what makes it
- 2:05Speaker 2: so great is it's always a purple tie, but different shades.
- 2:09Speaker 2: So you could have you know, maybe he wants to
- 2:12Speaker 2: go out with a bang, with a you know, a
- 2:14Speaker 2: FU show like a bright purple. Maybe he's more of
- 2:19Speaker 2: a Colamada purple guy, kind of trying to be a
- 2:21Speaker 2: little bit more reserved in that fashion, maybe a nice
- 2:25Speaker 2: light plummed usher in the spring, a lot of choices
- 2:29Speaker 2: for J. Powell, but in any case, most likely as
- 2:31Speaker 2: last press conference. But then after the close, this is
- 2:37Speaker 2: where we've got the real meat, which is from four
- 2:42Speaker 2: major tech companies reporting earnings, and all four fall into
- 2:46Speaker 2: that hyperscaler category. Companies that are spending oodles and oodles
- 2:51Speaker 2: of money trying to build data centers in order to
- 2:55Speaker 2: win the artificial intelligence race. Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
- 3:03Speaker 2: all reporting after the bell. Only two of those companies
- 3:05Speaker 2: have their original names, but Alphabet and Meta we still
- 3:08Speaker 2: pop on the list just because well they're almost two
- 3:11Speaker 2: trillion dollars in market cap for each one. But between
- 3:15Speaker 2: the four companies, you're talking just shy of ten trillion
- 3:18Speaker 2: dollars in market cap. I think it went back in
- 3:21Speaker 2: time a couple months ago it would have been north
- 3:23Speaker 2: of ten trillion, but they've all seen their values drop
- 3:27Speaker 2: over the you know, over that time. So I think
- 3:31Speaker 2: that this is a pretty big one, just because the
- 3:34Speaker 2: key driver in this rebound for equities in the last
- 3:39Speaker 2: couple of weeks has been semiconductor stocks. There's no other
- 3:43Speaker 2: way that you can slice it. When you look at it,
- 3:46Speaker 2: and again, I've looked at this pretty closely over the
- 3:50Speaker 2: last couple of days. But when you look at basically
- 3:55Speaker 2: what's been driving things month to date, semiconductor stocks depending
- 3:59Speaker 2: on the index that you want to look at, are
- 4:02Speaker 2: up anywhere from thirty to thirty five percent right now,
- 4:05Speaker 2: even after a two day three day now like seven
- 4:08Speaker 2: percent pullback, So they're up that much. The S and
- 4:12Speaker 2: P five hundreds up nine. You go through and you
- 4:14Speaker 2: look at the other sectors in the S and P
- 4:17Speaker 2: five hundred, there's nothing else over that time that is
- 4:22Speaker 2: even close. It is semis that are driving the thing.
- 4:25Speaker 2: And the idea is, hey, about a month ago, you
- 4:29Speaker 2: started seeing all these reports popping up that users of
- 4:35Speaker 2: AI programs were being rate limited. They weren't able to
- 4:38Speaker 2: use them as much as they wanted to. They were
- 4:40Speaker 2: running out of what they call their tokens, the ability
- 4:43Speaker 2: you know, they say, look, I'm spending X dollars, why
- 4:45Speaker 2: can I not get any more you know, access? And
- 4:48Speaker 2: it was, well, you've hit your limit for the day
- 4:49Speaker 2: or the hour, come back later. And so semiconductor stocks
- 4:53Speaker 2: have been bid pretty much relentlessly since then. Through last Friday.
- 4:57Speaker 2: It was eighteen straight days that we saw them up.
- 5:02Speaker 2: We're now closing in on the third straight day that
- 5:08Speaker 2: they are going to be down if they were to
- 5:11Speaker 2: in fact close down today, but right now looking at
- 5:15Speaker 2: a modest gain, trying to hold some rather high levels.
- 5:20Speaker 2: So I think with the hyperscalers, the question is not
- 5:23Speaker 2: going to be like, people aren't actually interested in Microsoft's earnings.
- 5:28Speaker 2: They're not interested in Amazon's earnings, They're not interested in
- 5:33Speaker 2: Google's earnings, they're not interested in Meta's earnings. What they're
- 5:39Speaker 2: interested in is how much are you going to be
- 5:41Speaker 2: spending on Capex? Yeah, that's what they care about. The
- 5:46Speaker 2: earnings this quarter largely irrelevant. Like it's not that you know,
- 5:51Speaker 2: they don't matter, but they don't really matter because the
- 5:54Speaker 2: reason why these tech companies have the valuations they do
- 5:57Speaker 2: right now is not because of their earnings pro jecttions
- 6:00Speaker 2: for now. It's because of what they might become because
- 6:02Speaker 2: of AI in the next three to five years. And
- 6:06Speaker 2: this is gonna have ramifications throughout the tech sector because
- 6:10Speaker 2: if they indicate even a pause in Capex, that changes
- 6:14Speaker 2: the semiconductor narrative just as quickly as it changed a
- 6:16Speaker 2: month ago.
- 6:18Speaker 4: Your thoughts, Mark, Oh, I think earnings are not. Yeah,
- 6:20Speaker 4: you put it perfectly. Earnings overall, like for the market,
- 6:22Speaker 4: are not predictive of future earnings. So it's always a
- 6:25Speaker 4: little bit of a head scratcher for me when I
- 6:26Speaker 4: see headlines like earnings push stocks higher, stocks are, stock
- 6:30Speaker 4: prices are in theory forward stock price changes, excuse me,
- 6:33Speaker 4: are in theory forward looking. So we don't care so
- 6:35Speaker 4: much about this quarter's earnings. They reflect past activity, the
- 6:39Speaker 4: past economic environment. We care more about maybe what they
- 6:43Speaker 4: say about a company's ability to turn shareholder capital into
- 6:46Speaker 4: something greater.
- 6:48Speaker 2: If let me let me, can I dig in on
- 6:51Speaker 2: this point just for a second and ask a question?
- 6:53Speaker 2: I can. It's our show, of course, I like, no, you're
- 6:55Speaker 2: the host. Yeah, well you are too. You know they
- 6:57Speaker 2: play your name at the beginning.
- 6:59Speaker 4: Oh right, that was just a soop to make me
- 7:02Speaker 4: feel better about myself. But yeah, go ahead.
- 7:03Speaker 2: In any case, is there a case to be made
- 7:06Speaker 2: that from a probabilistic perspective, it's a ten cent word
- 7:11Speaker 2: if I've ever seen one that a company. Ultimately, we
- 7:16Speaker 2: look at companies through a series of probabilities. What are
- 7:19Speaker 2: the probabilities that earnings are going to be x, y
- 7:21Speaker 2: and z in the future. It's not binary. It's okay,
- 7:24Speaker 2: there's a ten percent probability of X to twenty percent
- 7:26Speaker 2: of Y, seventy percent of Z, and that builds you correct.
- 7:31Speaker 2: Like in general, that's how the market looks at So
- 7:34Speaker 2: is the idea? Is it feasible? Then a company that
- 7:39Speaker 2: beats on earnings this quarter, it raises the probability of
- 7:46Speaker 2: earnings growth in the future because simply it's taking one
- 7:49Speaker 2: data point off of the mark. Ultimately, the more impactful
- 7:53Speaker 2: piece is that terminal earnings number. That's where it all
- 7:56Speaker 2: ends up coming from. But where I'm going with you
- 7:59Speaker 2: and what I'm curious about mark, Is there any evidence
- 8:02Speaker 2: of there been any studies done as it relates to
- 8:06Speaker 2: companies that beat earnings estimates and what it says about
- 8:12Speaker 2: intermediate or longer term prospects.
- 8:13Speaker 4: Probably, but I don't. I'd have to look that up
- 8:16Speaker 4: and get back to you. My guess would be it's
- 8:17Speaker 4: not predictive on average. Sure you could have guessed that too,
- 8:21Speaker 4: because if it were, people would be using the information
- 8:23Speaker 4: today to outperform, And to my knowledge, that's not among
- 8:26Speaker 4: these sort of more proven if you will investment strategies.
- 8:30Speaker 4: If there is such a thing, My guess is, Chuck.
- 8:32Speaker 4: The short answer is a frustrating answer. It depends on
- 8:35Speaker 4: how they did it. In videos lately have been predictive. Sure,
- 8:39Speaker 4: their surprises have grown over time. My guess is that's
- 8:42Speaker 4: I keep saying my guess, sorry, because I don't really know.
- 8:44Speaker 4: I'll get back to you. My guess is that's unusual.
- 8:47Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here before we do a
- 8:50Speaker 2: little bit of breaking news that Kevin Worsch's FED chair
- 8:54Speaker 2: nomination has cleared the Senate Finance Committee. This after the
- 8:58Speaker 2: DOJ drop its investigation. Remember that was what Senator Tillis
- 9:04Speaker 2: had indicated was holding up his possible approval vote, and
- 9:09Speaker 2: so this a key procedural hurdle. And so it now
- 9:12Speaker 2: appears that things are basically cleared for warsh over the
- 9:16Speaker 2: next couple weeks to be confirmed to lead the FED.
- 9:21Speaker 2: And if that's the case, then in fact, today's J.
- 9:25Speaker 2: Powell press conference will in fact be the last Powell
- 9:28Speaker 2: one that we get. I'm sure there will be all
- 9:30Speaker 2: kinds of questions that come out as to whether he
- 9:32Speaker 2: will stay on the Board of Governors after that. So
- 9:35Speaker 2: we can still anticipate some of those questions in the
- 9:39Speaker 2: press conference, but with that, let's take a quick break.
- 9:41Speaker 2: When we come back, we'll talk Open AI when we return.
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- 10:26Speaker 2: We got a piece here from Bloomberg Opinion. It's titled
- 10:31Speaker 2: an Open AI bubble is not an AI bubble And
- 10:40Speaker 2: basically what it's talking about here is so there was
- 10:44Speaker 2: a Wall Street Journal report I think it came out
- 10:48Speaker 2: yes like month, it was yesterday that open ai had
- 10:52Speaker 2: missed some internal benchmarks for growth. And quite honestly, can
- 10:57Speaker 2: we talk about this a little before we uh go
- 11:01Speaker 2: into this piece, just because some of the stuff that's
- 11:03Speaker 2: in there is kind of wild and I don't think
- 11:06Speaker 2: we covered it in depth. Well I don't know. I
- 11:08Speaker 2: wasn't on the show yesterday. Did you cover it in depth?
- 11:11Speaker 3: Yeah, A good chunk, yeah, I would say.
- 11:13Speaker 2: Did you cover the part where they're expecting their twenty
- 11:16Speaker 2: dollars a month subscriptions to drop by seventy five percent
- 11:20Speaker 2: this year and be replaced by their eight dollars a
- 11:24Speaker 2: month subscriptions being picked up by one hundred and twelve
- 11:27Speaker 2: million people worldwide instead.
- 11:31Speaker 4: No, I think we overlooked that or it wasn't available
- 11:33Speaker 4: at the time.
- 11:34Speaker 2: So I did the math on this, and do you
- 11:36Speaker 2: know how much money you make if you have one
- 11:38Speaker 2: hundred and twelve million people getting charged eight dollars a
- 11:42Speaker 2: month for twelve months? Do you do you? No, I'm
- 11:47Speaker 2: not that good, do you? It's about ten point seven
- 11:51Speaker 2: billion dollars a year, which is not nothing like, it's
- 11:54Speaker 2: not no revenue. But you don't have five hundred billion
- 11:58Speaker 2: dollar CAPEX plan because you can get ten billion dollars
- 12:01Speaker 2: in revenue. The math doesn't make sense. You can't make
- 12:05Speaker 2: money selling ten billion dollars of product on five hundred
- 12:08Speaker 2: billion dollars of buildout. I know this because I know math.
- 12:13Speaker 2: So ultimately, what you end up with here is i'll
- 12:18Speaker 2: quote here again talking about this Wall Street Journal piece.
- 12:23Speaker 2: OpenAI then struck a reassuring tone in a statement that
- 12:26Speaker 2: it was still quote firing on all cylinders which is
- 12:29Speaker 2: interesting because open ai doesn't have any cylinders. They don't
- 12:32Speaker 2: use internal combustion engines. Still, the Kneesric reaction was an
- 12:35Speaker 2: indication about closely the fate of open aiy is tied
- 12:38Speaker 2: to the perception of the AI industry's future. Circular financing
- 12:42Speaker 2: has made those conclusions understandable. But open AI's execution struggles
- 12:45Speaker 2: shouldn't be allowed to speak for the sector as a whole. No,
- 12:49Speaker 2: they don't. But here here's the deal. And I've talked
- 12:51Speaker 2: about this a lot, like when you actually get down
- 12:53Speaker 2: to the math, because ultimately math is what matters for
- 12:58Speaker 2: companies being able to stay in business. If you are
- 13:04Speaker 2: looking at a situation where your hyperscalers this year are
- 13:10Speaker 2: spending six hundred billion dollars in capex, eventually you have
- 13:14Speaker 2: to depreciate that capex over time. It's how it ends
- 13:17Speaker 2: up filtering through your different financial statements. And the different
- 13:21Speaker 2: companies use different depreciation you know, standards, but they're generally
- 13:25Speaker 2: for what we see for data centers somewhere in the
- 13:27Speaker 2: ballpark of like six to eight years of depreciation because
- 13:31Speaker 2: that asset has a usable lifespan, and after that you
- 13:34Speaker 2: need to replace the technology in it because it's no
- 13:36Speaker 2: longer usable. Okay, chips wear out, you've got to replace
- 13:39Speaker 2: cooling towers, you know, all this stuff like it happens.
- 13:43Speaker 2: Anyone who's ever owned a home knows that, you know,
- 13:45Speaker 2: you have upkeeping, so you have to, like things depreciate
- 13:48Speaker 2: over time. It's just how it works. So here's the deal.
- 13:52Speaker 2: Let's use just make the mass simple and say it's
- 13:53Speaker 2: a six year depreciation schedule. Now you've got one hundred
- 13:57Speaker 2: billion dollars hitting of depreciation that hits this year. And
- 14:01Speaker 2: in order to overcome that, Okay, you don't just need
- 14:04Speaker 2: one hundred billion dollars in revenue, because revenue in and
- 14:07Speaker 2: of itself doesn't all just flow through. There's a cost
- 14:09Speaker 2: to that as well, and so you might need like
- 14:12Speaker 2: two to three hundred billion in revenue in order to
- 14:15Speaker 2: cover that one hundred billion in depreciation. But remember that's
- 14:18Speaker 2: just for this year's buildout. The Hyperscalers are projected to
- 14:22Speaker 2: spend trillions of dollars the next few years in order
- 14:25Speaker 2: to actually build out the capacity they want, So each
- 14:29Speaker 2: one might have three or four hundred billion dollars a
- 14:33Speaker 2: year in depreciation that's hitting. Where is the trillion dollars
- 14:37Speaker 2: in revenue going to come from in order to cover that.
- 14:41Speaker 2: And this is the part where I just I struggle
- 14:43Speaker 2: to make the math work because it's obvious to me
- 14:46Speaker 2: that there is way more demand for computing power than
- 14:49Speaker 2: there is out there today for supply. We see this
- 14:52Speaker 2: because everyone who's trying to use caud code is getting
- 14:55Speaker 2: rate limited right now, there's just not enough compute to
- 14:58Speaker 2: go around. But ultimately, even with you know, Anthropic Okay,
- 15:04Speaker 2: so their their revenue has gone from you know, three
- 15:07Speaker 2: billion dollars annualized to thirty billion annualized in the last
- 15:10Speaker 2: few months. Okay, well, now you've got to take that
- 15:13Speaker 2: up another ten x and then another ten x to
- 15:16Speaker 2: make the math work industry wide. And if they're the
- 15:19Speaker 2: ones that are picking up revenue while open ai is missing,
- 15:23Speaker 2: I just don't know how you get to a point
- 15:25Speaker 2: where you can actually pay for all the compute that's needed,
- 15:28Speaker 2: Because it's gonna be you're gonna have to raise the
- 15:30Speaker 2: price through the roof. And when you do that, this
- 15:34Speaker 2: is the part that I think that I struggle with.
- 15:36Speaker 2: It no longer makes it so that, oh I can
- 15:39Speaker 2: do all of this with a twenty dollars a month
- 15:41Speaker 2: called pro subscription. If I now need a two thousand
- 15:45Speaker 2: dollars a month CAUD pro subscription, because that's the math
- 15:48Speaker 2: that has to make it work from you know, a
- 15:51Speaker 2: revenue perspective, Well, gee, maybe maybe that's not for me.
- 15:55Speaker 2: Then maybe maybe there's that's not gonna actually work.
- 15:58Speaker 4: How much are people willing to pay? What is the
- 16:00Speaker 4: demand curve of Look.
- 16:01Speaker 2: Like it's it's not going to be individuals, it's going
- 16:03Speaker 2: to be companies.
- 16:04Speaker 4: Well, yes, consumer's excuse.
- 16:05Speaker 2: Because if the if the premise is, hey, I can
- 16:08Speaker 2: replace that fifty thousand dollars a year person with a
- 16:11Speaker 2: two hundred dollars a month subscription. Yeah, Like, guys, I'm sorry,
- 16:18Speaker 2: we're all vulnerable to that. Like if if someone can
- 16:20Speaker 2: replace you at a tenth of the cost you're at,
- 16:23Speaker 2: what CEO wouldn't say yes when it becomes hey, I
- 16:29Speaker 2: can replace you at fifty thousand dollars with claud or
- 16:34Speaker 2: open A or chat GPT or Gemini at forty thousand.
- 16:38Speaker 2: But I still need an engineer to oversee that that's
- 16:42Speaker 2: not as attractive. And this is where I'm having trouble
- 16:45Speaker 2: with the math.
- 16:46Speaker 4: The shape and the nature of demand and what people
- 16:52Speaker 4: are consequently willing to pay. Is what's interesting to me,
- 16:55Speaker 4: particularly as alternatives that are cheaper that do ninety percent
- 16:58Speaker 4: or eighty percent, but that that's enough. Like you might
- 17:01Speaker 4: not want to replace me Chuck in two years with AI,
- 17:05Speaker 4: but you might say, we're not hiring anybody else, and
- 17:08Speaker 4: I expect you to be more productive because we're making
- 17:10Speaker 4: a small investment in AI. That to me is a
- 17:13Speaker 4: more realistic scenario, or at least for financial services and
- 17:15Speaker 4: probably for similar professions where you do need an experienced
- 17:19Speaker 4: person overseeing the result. But what are you, as a
- 17:21Speaker 4: business owner willing to pay? And will you wait for
- 17:25Speaker 4: something that's seventy percent is good, especially when complimented with
- 17:28Speaker 4: an experienced person, but it is it is eighty percent cheaper.
- 17:32Speaker 4: I'm just drawing. I'm making those chops up.
- 17:34Speaker 2: But these are the questions that are going to determine
- 17:38Speaker 2: what happens with AI the next few years because it's undeniable.
- 17:41Speaker 2: There is not enough compute capacity now, but it's also
- 17:46Speaker 2: getting close to the point where in my mind it's
- 17:48Speaker 2: undeniable that you can't build out the additional capacity without
- 17:51Speaker 2: dramatically raising the cost for users to use the service.
- 17:56Speaker 2: And if that's the case. What happens to demand and
- 17:58Speaker 2: then do you need that whole like it's it's the
- 18:01Speaker 2: it's the interaction between these forces and it's sorry, sorry,
- 18:05Speaker 2: interesting to me.
- 18:06Speaker 4: If you raise that cost, you reduce my as a
- 18:08Speaker 4: business owner, yours a business owner's profits.
- 18:10Speaker 2: Well, it's it's one thing. If it's okay, Mark, if
- 18:13Speaker 2: I can take you and make you one hundred percent
- 18:16Speaker 2: more productive by adding ten percent more cost to you know,
- 18:20Speaker 2: you're all in comp If I view you know, using
- 18:24Speaker 2: AI as part of your comp effectively, okay, finely, great,
- 18:28Speaker 2: I can do that. If I can make you one
- 18:31Speaker 2: hundred percent more productive, but it raises your cost by
- 18:34Speaker 2: eighty percent. I don't know if I want to necessarily
- 18:38Speaker 2: do that, you know, like it's that's not where the
- 18:41Speaker 2: math works. So we're gonna have to see. But again,
- 18:46Speaker 2: until hyperscalers come out and say we are cutting capex
- 18:51Speaker 2: or we are you know, not increasing capex anymore, it's
- 18:55Speaker 2: also tough to say that the cycle's ending, like that's
- 18:58Speaker 2: what's gonna try. It keeps like being like, oh, it's
- 19:01Speaker 2: looking at in videos earnings this month. You don't have
- 19:03Speaker 2: to look at in videos earnings now They're gonna be
- 19:05Speaker 2: spectacular until the hyperscalers say no, we're not buying anymore. Agreed,
- 19:11Speaker 2: you know, like you can just you know, put in videos,
- 19:13Speaker 2: earnings to the side and call to day. Basically, let's
- 19:16Speaker 2: take a quick break when we return. A lot of
- 19:19Speaker 2: fun Wall Street Watch coming up, and Todd Lutsky joins
- 19:24Speaker 2: us for Ask Todd, get your estate planning questions ready? Next.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter at
- 19:44Speaker 1: TFE show. Breaking business news is always first rank here
- 19:48Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network till now full Wall
- 19:53Speaker 1: Street Watch tracking the stocks, the dato, and the headlines
- 19:56Speaker 1: driving markets so far today. Right here on the Financial
- 20:00Speaker 1: Exchange Radio.
- 20:01Speaker 3: Markets are quite ahead of a busy afternoon ahead, where
- 20:04Speaker 3: investors will be watching the final press conference from FED
- 20:08Speaker 3: Chairman Jerome Powell following the Central Bank's decision on rates
- 20:11Speaker 3: at two o'clock. All eyes will then turn to big
- 20:14Speaker 3: tech after the bell, where Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta
- 20:18Speaker 3: will unveil their anticipated first quarter results. Right now, the
- 20:21Speaker 3: Dow is down four tenths of a percent, SMP five
- 20:24Speaker 3: hundred up only two points, NASDAC up about a tenth
- 20:28Speaker 3: of a percent. RUST two thousand down, about a tenth
- 20:30Speaker 3: of a percent. Ten youre Treasure Reeled is up three
- 20:33Speaker 3: basis points at four point three nine to two percent,
- 20:36Speaker 3: and oil jumping nearly five percent higher, trading at one
- 20:39Speaker 3: hundred and four dollars a barrel. Starbucks jumping seven percent
- 20:44Speaker 3: after the coffee chain posted a six point two percent
- 20:47Speaker 3: rise in same store sales in the previous quarter. CEO
- 20:50Speaker 3: Brian Nichols said its sales rebound is picking up steam
- 20:53Speaker 3: in its turnaround effort. Meanwhile, online brokerage Robinhood reported a
- 20:57Speaker 3: quarterly profit that fell short of street expectations, sending shares
- 21:02Speaker 3: down by thirteen percent. Elsewhere, shares in Cgay Technology rallying
- 21:07Speaker 3: thirteen percent after the data storage company b third quarter
- 21:10Speaker 3: estimates on the top and bottom lines, while its revenue
- 21:13Speaker 3: outlook also impressed. Other data storage names are seeing gains
- 21:17Speaker 3: in reaction, and Jack Daniels maker Brown Forman is shedding
- 21:21Speaker 3: nine percent after France's pernod Recard said it ended its
- 21:26Speaker 3: pursuit of the US liquor company. I'm Tucker Silva and
- 21:32Speaker 3: that is Wall Street Watch.
- 21:35Speaker 1: This is ask Todd on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
- 21:38Speaker 1: If you have an existing estate plan or in the
- 21:41Speaker 1: market for one. Todd Letskey is here to answer your
- 21:43Speaker 1: questions and help you plan for later life. Ask Todd
- 21:46Speaker 1: is presented by Cushing and Dolan, serving Massachusetts and New
- 21:49Speaker 1: England for more than thirty five years, helping families with
- 21:52Speaker 1: the state and tax planning, medicaid planning, and probate law.
- 21:56Speaker 1: Visit Cushingdolan dot com. Now Here's Todd.
- 22:02Speaker 2: As promised, Todd Lutsky now joins US four Ask Todd.
- 22:07Speaker 2: This is your chance to ask Todd your estate planning
- 22:10Speaker 2: questions live on air. Phone lines are open at eight
- 22:16Speaker 2: eight eight to zero five two two sixty three. That
- 22:20Speaker 2: is the number to call to ask Todd your estate
- 22:22Speaker 2: planning questions live right now. Eight eight eight to zero
- 22:26Speaker 2: five two two six three. We can usually get to
- 22:30Speaker 2: somewhere in the ballpark of two or three questions, so
- 22:32Speaker 2: if you've got one, get call on early to make
- 22:35Speaker 2: sure we get to you. Eight eight eight to zero
- 22:38Speaker 2: five two two sixty three is the number. Mister Lutsky,
- 22:42Speaker 2: how are you doing today?
- 22:43Speaker 5: I've been a little better little I'm gonna gut through
- 22:46Speaker 5: it though, but I'm okay, You're okay, kind of okay.
- 22:48Speaker 4: I'm you.
- 22:49Speaker 2: I had a tough day yesterday.
- 22:50Speaker 5: Yeah, I do.
- 22:51Speaker 2: You might not know this. I uh I. My my
- 22:54Speaker 2: night job is as a plastic surgeon. Well here, yes, fancy,
- 22:58Speaker 2: I know, thank you. Uh but I had a patient
- 23:00Speaker 2: yesterday and I really messed up his surgery.
- 23:04Speaker 5: How do you do?
- 23:04Speaker 2: I'll never forget the look on his elbow. That's not good, Todd.
- 23:09Speaker 2: I want to talk to you a little bit about
- 23:12Speaker 2: beneficiary naming. Let's say that someone has not done any
- 23:16Speaker 2: estate planning, no will, no trust, know nothing conventional wisdom
- 23:22Speaker 2: in terms of naming beneficiaries on financial accounts best practices?
- 23:27Speaker 2: What does that look like?
- 23:29Speaker 5: I'm not sure you can use the word best practices
- 23:32Speaker 5: with name practices. That seems like an anomaly. So I
- 23:38Speaker 5: think the way to do it is if you're going
- 23:41Speaker 5: to name a beneficiary while we can talk about it
- 23:43Speaker 5: two ways, because there's two types of assets. There's qualified
- 23:45Speaker 5: assets where you definitely need to name a beneficiary, sure,
- 23:49Speaker 5: and then there's non qualified assets. Let's just stay with
- 23:52Speaker 5: banks and brokerage accounts. Sure, So non qualified accounts, can
- 23:57Speaker 5: you name a beneficiary? Yes? Does it always work as
- 24:01Speaker 5: the best way to avoid probate? Well, it will avoid
- 24:03Speaker 5: probate every time. But is it a good way to
- 24:07Speaker 5: avoid probate? Well, yes and no. I mean if you're
- 24:10Speaker 5: going to if you're going to have a trust in place,
- 24:12Speaker 5: and you're not going to retitle the name of the
- 24:14Speaker 5: asset to the trust, the brokerage account or the bank account,
- 24:18Speaker 5: at least name the beneficiary the trust, so then it
- 24:20Speaker 5: would get to the trust and then it would fund
- 24:23Speaker 5: it at death and make sure your assets, you know,
- 24:25Speaker 5: go where they're supposed to go and be sheltered first
- 24:27Speaker 5: ay taxes. So that would work great. But if you're
- 24:31Speaker 5: not going to have a trust and you're going to
- 24:33Speaker 5: use designated beneficial thinking it's cheaper and easier than using
- 24:36Speaker 5: a trust, then you have to be careful because if
- 24:38Speaker 5: it's if the beneficiaries each other as a spouse and
- 24:42Speaker 5: it's just joint well that doesn't save anything fir state
- 24:44Speaker 5: taxes at all. Everything just passes to the spouse and
- 24:48Speaker 5: you waste exemptions that you could be sheltering assets for.
- 24:51Speaker 5: And if it's if you're single and you're starting to
- 24:54Speaker 5: name children as beneficiaries, then be careful because if you
- 24:58Speaker 5: don't name all the children, you name one child on
- 25:01Speaker 5: certain accounts and one child on another account. The likelihood
- 25:04Speaker 5: is you're not going to be treating them equally, and
- 25:06Speaker 5: you might want to, so that's a concern. But with iras,
- 25:11Speaker 5: you do need to name a beneficiary because those you
- 25:14Speaker 5: cannot title to the trust while you're alive, cannot retitle
- 25:19Speaker 5: the owner, but you need a beneficiary. So in that case,
- 25:22Speaker 5: if you're married, obviously the first one is always espouse.
- 25:25Speaker 5: It's the best of both worlds when you're doing the
- 25:28Speaker 5: state planning ideally, and then secondly you could name kids.
- 25:34Speaker 5: But again if you're going to do a trust, I
- 25:36Speaker 5: would name a trust as the contingent generally, because I
- 25:39Speaker 5: don't want assets going out right to my kids, especially
- 25:42Speaker 5: if I have a large IRA. I want those assets
- 25:44Speaker 5: to be you know, sheltered and divorce proofed and generation
- 25:47Speaker 5: skipping benefits and whatnot, which is probably what I'm doing
- 25:50Speaker 5: with my trust assets. So then I might as well
- 25:52Speaker 5: add it to the trust when I die to get
- 25:55Speaker 5: those added benefits.
- 25:56Speaker 2: Talking with Todd Lutsky from the law firm of Kushingan
- 25:59Speaker 2: Dolan's still do have a bit of room on the
- 26:02Speaker 2: phone lines at eight eight eight to zero five two
- 26:05Speaker 2: two sixty three. That's the number to call to Ask
- 26:07Speaker 2: Todd your estate planning questions eight eight eight to zero
- 26:12Speaker 2: five two two six three. We are going to take
- 26:15Speaker 2: a quick break, but when we come back, it's right
- 26:18Speaker 2: to your questions with Todd Again. That number is eight
- 26:21Speaker 2: eight eight to zero five two two sixty three.
- 26:26Speaker 1: Ask Todd with Todd Lutsky every Wednesday at ten thirty
- 26:30Speaker 1: only here on the Financial Exchange Radio Network. You're listening
- 26:36Speaker 1: to Ask Todd with Todd Lutsky on the Financial Exchange
- 26:39Speaker 1: Radio Network.
- 26:52Speaker 2: All right, let's get right to your questions with Todd Letsky.
- 26:55Speaker 2: First in the queue, we've got Bill in Wakefield. Bill,
- 26:58Speaker 2: what's your question for Todd?
- 27:02Speaker 6: So, my wife and I retired, and I have served
- 27:05Speaker 6: a multifamily houses and several kids, and right now I'm
- 27:08Speaker 6: using the income for my retirement, but at some point
- 27:12Speaker 6: and I will leave one house to each of the kids,
- 27:16Speaker 6: So I'm trying to avoid the capital game. But I
- 27:19Speaker 6: also know at some point I might not be able
- 27:22Speaker 6: to maintain the houses myself, so i'one Right now, they're
- 27:27Speaker 6: in a revocable trust which the kids is the beneficiaries.
- 27:31Speaker 6: But is there a certain point I should go to
- 27:34Speaker 6: an irrevocable trust? And is that the best way to
- 27:37Speaker 6: handle it to keep the income and past the house
- 27:40Speaker 6: without realizing capital play. I've been having to play the
- 27:43Speaker 6: capital game test.
- 27:44Speaker 5: So let me just hang on. Let me ask you
- 27:46Speaker 5: a couple of clarifying questions as we go through this. So, like,
- 27:50Speaker 5: right now, how much would you say the value of
- 27:53Speaker 5: your overall estate is more or less than the Massachusetts
- 27:56Speaker 5: combined two million dollar exemption each, which would be for million.
- 28:01Speaker 6: Yes, it's more than that, okay. In my wife and
- 28:05Speaker 6: I have a trust each, and then the trust the
- 28:08Speaker 6: kids is trust that goes to the kids.
- 28:11Speaker 5: Well, that seems a little confusing. Issued you could each
- 28:13Speaker 5: have a trust, but it depends on how large your
- 28:15Speaker 5: estate is. Probably one joint revocable trust would be good
- 28:18Speaker 5: if you're not over the fifteen million dollar federal exemption.
- 28:22Speaker 5: Are are you up that high?
- 28:25Speaker 2: No?
- 28:25Speaker 5: No, so you know, but you're over four but somewhere
- 28:27Speaker 5: under fifteen. So you know Whether or not nursing home
- 28:30Speaker 5: planning is important. I can't tell from this. I would
- 28:33Speaker 5: need to know what how much income is being generated,
- 28:35Speaker 5: and whether or not you know you want the irrevocable
- 28:38Speaker 5: trust for a nursing home planning or not. That would
- 28:40Speaker 5: require probably a sit down to really analyze, you know,
- 28:43Speaker 5: whether or not yourself insured or you or you aren't
- 28:47Speaker 5: and and if you aren't, then yes, we could do
- 28:49Speaker 5: irrevocable and it could be two and you could put
- 28:52Speaker 5: these assets in them and you wouldn't need to worry.
- 28:54Speaker 5: And that's a great question though about step up and basis.
- 28:56Speaker 5: The irrevocable Medicaid trust planning that we do for folks
- 29:00Speaker 5: gives you the step up in basis when you die.
- 29:02Speaker 5: So if you don't sell these rental properties before you die,
- 29:06Speaker 5: not only will they avoid probate and be preserved for
- 29:09Speaker 5: a state tax and nursing home protection, when the kids
- 29:13Speaker 5: actually inherit them, they will get a brand new basis.
- 29:16Speaker 5: So if they sold them there'd be no capital gain,
- 29:18Speaker 5: or if they chose to rent them, they would pay,
- 29:21Speaker 5: you know, be able to depreciate them with a new
- 29:23Speaker 5: basis over twenty seven and a half years against their rent.
- 29:27Speaker 5: So that's a huge win for them. So don't know
- 29:30Speaker 5: if that's right or wrong for you, but that definitely
- 29:32Speaker 5: can be done. The only the comment I would have
- 29:34Speaker 5: for you is if if you are worth less than
- 29:37Speaker 5: fifteen million, maybe a joint trust if it's revocable if
- 29:40Speaker 5: you're not going irrevocable, would be simpler and provide the
- 29:44Speaker 5: ability to shelter more assets on the first death than
- 29:48Speaker 5: dividing the assets between the two of you. That said,
- 29:51Speaker 5: the only other comment I might have is multi family
- 29:53Speaker 5: units probably should be owned in an LLC. If they're
- 29:58Speaker 5: in an LLC, then you're going to give you yourself some
- 30:00Speaker 5: creditor protection against potential lawsuits. So I would think about that.
- 30:04Speaker 5: But yeah, sounds like you probably need a good sit
- 30:07Speaker 5: down with an estate planning attorney and really overview, look
- 30:10Speaker 5: at your overall plan to see if if a change
- 30:13Speaker 5: is right for you. And you know what, that's funny
- 30:16Speaker 5: because that's exactly what are you know. One of the
- 30:18Speaker 5: things we talk about in our guide is right, how
- 30:20Speaker 5: do you leave assets to beneficiaries? Well, you want to
- 30:23Speaker 5: leave these assets to the kids. I heard one house
- 30:25Speaker 5: to each kid. Be careful because you end up, you know,
- 30:29Speaker 5: not treating everybody equally when you do that. There's other
- 30:32Speaker 5: ways you can treat them equally and still ensure that
- 30:35Speaker 5: they get you know, what houses you want them to get.
- 30:38Speaker 5: Maybe a first right of refusal, maybe make each other
- 30:41Speaker 5: buy each other out. Uh, there's there's many ways to
- 30:44Speaker 5: think about it, and folks, there's other things too. You
- 30:46Speaker 5: run into when you're leaving assets to children. You know,
- 30:50Speaker 5: do we want to divorce proof them? Do we want
- 30:52Speaker 5: to credit or protect them? Do we have special needs children?
- 30:55Speaker 2: You know?
- 30:55Speaker 5: Do we you know? We don't want to just rely
- 30:57Speaker 5: on jointly owned assets. The question is great about planning,
- 31:01Speaker 5: but the family behind the estate plan is also very important.
- 31:05Speaker 5: So get the guide. It's coming up on the end
- 31:07Speaker 5: of the month. Here it's going to go away eight
- 31:10Speaker 5: six six eight four eight five six nine nine or
- 31:14Speaker 5: Legal Exchange Show dot com and get the guide as
- 31:17Speaker 5: to how to leave your assets to your beneficiaries again
- 31:19Speaker 5: eight six six eight four eight five six nine nine
- 31:23Speaker 5: or Legal Exchange Show dot com. And you can always
- 31:25Speaker 5: go to our Instagram page Cushing Dolan PC for much
- 31:29Speaker 5: more information.
- 31:30Speaker 2: Todd, I got another one for you here. Let's go
- 31:32Speaker 2: to Jeff in Sutton, Massachusetts. Jeff, what is your question
- 31:37Speaker 2: for Todd?
- 31:39Speaker 7: Yeah? Hi, good morning, Todd morning. I have a process question.
- 31:44Speaker 7: My wife and I are going to create you revocable
- 31:46Speaker 7: trust for our family. We have three children, they all
- 31:50Speaker 7: get go long. Well, the will's going to state that
- 31:54Speaker 7: they will receive equal share. My question is should we
- 31:59Speaker 7: appoint all three children for trustees or would it be
- 32:04Speaker 7: easier for the process to have just one shell as
- 32:08Speaker 7: a trustee. So many pros and calls on that idea.
- 32:11Speaker 5: I do so so the the the trust language. When
- 32:17Speaker 5: you're leaving it equally to the kids, is the trust
- 32:20Speaker 5: going to simply say divide it and pay it out,
- 32:23Speaker 5: give it to them they walk away, or you're going
- 32:25Speaker 5: to be holding it back in trust for you know,
- 32:27Speaker 5: for some reason credit or protection, divorce proof, et cetera.
- 32:32Speaker 7: No, our plan was to divide it equally in the
- 32:35Speaker 7: case about demise and go from there.
- 32:38Speaker 5: But upon your death, is the trust going to say
- 32:41Speaker 5: divide it and give it to them outright or hold
- 32:46Speaker 5: it in trust?
- 32:46Speaker 7: What was your thought, Well, we were just going to
- 32:51Speaker 7: divide it out right, give it to them.
- 32:52Speaker 5: So if you're just going to divide it, and again,
- 32:54Speaker 5: there's no right or wrong answer here, folks, It's just
- 32:56Speaker 5: what's right for your family. So if you're going to
- 32:59Speaker 5: divide an out allocated and pay it out, then there's
- 33:02Speaker 5: no reason for sure to have three kids as a
- 33:04Speaker 5: trustee because what's going to happen is the trust is
- 33:07Speaker 5: going to end right away, and the trust has to
- 33:09Speaker 5: do exactly what the trustee, excuse me, has to do
- 33:13Speaker 5: exactly what the trust says, which is simply divide it,
- 33:16Speaker 5: pay it out, trust over. Everybody walks away. So I'm
- 33:20Speaker 5: going to say one child is ample in your situation.
- 33:25Speaker 2: Hope that helped Todd. We've got another one for you here.
- 33:28Speaker 2: Let's go to Ken in Maine. Ken. What is your
- 33:32Speaker 2: question for Todd?
- 33:35Speaker 7: Hi?
- 33:35Speaker 8: How you guys doing. Yeah, I have a unique situation
- 33:40Speaker 8: and you guys kind of alarm mea just a few
- 33:43Speaker 8: minutes ago that the iras cannot have a beneficiary of
- 33:47Speaker 8: a trust. I'm thinking about starting a trust. I'm kind
- 33:51Speaker 8: of new to this. I'm fifty nine and a half
- 33:53Speaker 8: years old. My wife is sixty. I am currently retired.
- 33:57Speaker 8: She works, makes about fifty with the Jessic gross income
- 34:02Speaker 8: of about eighteen, have about two million in a tax
- 34:05Speaker 8: deferred and she has about three quarters of a million
- 34:08Speaker 8: in a tax deferred both rollover IRA and I have
- 34:12Speaker 8: about three hundred in a ROTH. And it seems that
- 34:16Speaker 8: I'm going to be putting myself up against a very
- 34:18Speaker 8: difficult challenge of transferring a lot of that traditional rollover
- 34:23Speaker 8: IRA to a roth that in the next ten to
- 34:25Speaker 8: twelve years before the R and D is taken. But
- 34:27Speaker 8: it kind of alarmed me when you said a few
- 34:29Speaker 8: minutes ago that the trust cannot be the beneficiary of
- 34:32Speaker 8: the iris. So do I continue going as far as
- 34:36Speaker 8: the rough conversions or do I have something created that
- 34:39Speaker 8: I could do that alternatively.
- 34:41Speaker 5: Do so this is this is going to be an
- 34:43Speaker 5: easy quick fix for you. So what you misheard was
- 34:47Speaker 5: that the iras cannot be owned by the trust while
- 34:52Speaker 5: you're alive. They cannot be owned. You got to keep
- 34:55Speaker 5: the ownership in your name. It's an individual retirement account,
- 34:59Speaker 5: so it's in your or in your wife's name. I
- 35:02Speaker 5: did not say the beneficiaries could not be the trust.
- 35:04Speaker 5: The owner cannot be. The beneficiary absolutely can be the trust.
- 35:09Speaker 5: It's just a matter of looking at your overall estate
- 35:12Speaker 5: plan and sort of trying to figure out whether or not,
- 35:17Speaker 5: you know, we should make the trust the beneficiary or
- 35:20Speaker 5: the kids the beneficiary. That's a function of what you're
- 35:22Speaker 5: doing with your estate plan. But if the goal perhaps
- 35:26Speaker 5: unlike Jeff in his situation, he was just going to
- 35:28Speaker 5: give the assets out right. But if you're saying, no,
- 35:31Speaker 5: I want to try to hold these in trust. I
- 35:32Speaker 5: want to protect them from creditors. I want to you know,
- 35:35Speaker 5: protect them from my kids' future divorces, and you know,
- 35:39Speaker 5: maybe make it down a generation to the grandkids after
- 35:42Speaker 5: my kids die and get it there estate tax free.
- 35:45Speaker 5: It's called generation skipping tax planning. Well, if that's the case,
- 35:49Speaker 5: then all your other assets, not the iras, can be
- 35:54Speaker 5: owned owned by the trust right away. Do that now,
- 35:58Speaker 5: and then the primary beneficiary likely would be the spouse
- 36:05Speaker 5: and that's okay, primary beneficiary on the IRA or the
- 36:10Speaker 5: other qualified plan assets that you have, and then the
- 36:14Speaker 5: contingent beneficiary, instead of being the kids, could be the trust.
- 36:19Speaker 5: That way, not only are the assets that you currently
- 36:22Speaker 5: own in the trust, but when you die, the other
- 36:26Speaker 5: two million, two million, seven fifty if I heard the
- 36:29Speaker 5: numbers right, find their way to the trust to be
- 36:32Speaker 5: sheltered and paid out for your kids over time. Again,
- 36:35Speaker 5: the ten year payouts still going to exist either way,
- 36:38Speaker 5: and then what will happen is the IRA will just
- 36:40Speaker 5: be just reach into the IRA and pull out some
- 36:42Speaker 5: money and put it in the trust over ten years.
- 36:46Speaker 5: So that's the way I would do it. If you're
- 36:48Speaker 5: going to go ahead and do your estate plan and
- 36:51Speaker 5: try to protect all of your assets. Beneficiary contingent beneficiary
- 36:56Speaker 5: can be the trust, but not probably not the primary.
- 36:59Speaker 2: Mister Gickie, thank you so much for joining us today.
- 37:03Speaker 5: Well, thank you. It's always a pleasure.
- 37:05Speaker 1: This has been Asked Odd on the Financial Exchange Radio network.
- 37:09Speaker 1: Ask Todd with Todd. Lutsky has been presented by Cushing
- 37:12Speaker 1: and Dolan, serving Massachusetts and New England for more than
- 37:14Speaker 1: thirty years, helping families with the state and tax planning,
- 37:17Speaker 1: Medicaid planning, and probate law. Call eight hundred and three
- 37:20Speaker 1: nine three four thousand and one or visit Cushingdolan dot com.
- 37:24Speaker 1: The views expressed in this segment are solely those of
- 37:26Speaker 1: Cushing and Dolan. Armstrong advisor. He does not provide any
- 37:28Speaker 1: legal or tax advice. Please consult with your illegal or
- 37:30Speaker 1: tax advisor on such matters. Cushing and Armstrong do not
- 37:33Speaker 1: endorse each other and are not affiliated.