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NFL Week 10 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast and the Volume Podcast
0:12
Speaker 1: Network Game. Shad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: It is Tuesday. We got a big show and review
0:21
Speaker 1: what happened this weekend. Some things were truly disgusting me
0:26
Speaker 1: and my BFF, Michael Padre, my companion professional better extra ordinaire.
0:35
Speaker 1: Mr Simon Hunter. What up, brother Chad. I'll let you
0:40
Speaker 1: just get right after it off the top? What the
0:42
Speaker 1: hell last night? Bears, Pittsburgh Bears coming for that back
0:47
Speaker 1: door win. I mean they were in opportunity to have
0:50
Speaker 1: the perfect play. You can't celebrate now you came a
0:53
Speaker 1: walk past officials. I mean our Bears fans not losing
0:56
Speaker 1: their minds today. Let me just remind people of the
1:01
Speaker 1: rundown of the show. We're gonna talk about the full slate.
1:05
Speaker 1: We're gonna narrow it down into the bets we like
1:09
Speaker 1: the best that we will try to coalesce around. On Thursday.
1:14
Speaker 1: We'll probably talk about the big balls Better the Week
1:17
Speaker 1: today or Thursday we will talk about a Simon says,
1:20
Speaker 1: better the Week, probably today. The bet you have to
1:23
Speaker 1: make immediately, we will play some scooch roulette. Simon will
1:28
Speaker 1: make his bona fide guarantee pick I will do the
1:31
Speaker 1: same as a Bears fan and as a football fan
1:36
Speaker 1: and as a football better. It's almost becoming impossible to
1:40
Speaker 1: watch these games. In the last five minutes, you know
1:44
Speaker 1: there is going to be a holding penalty, a pass
1:49
Speaker 1: interference penalty, a defensive holding penalty, and we can talk
1:53
Speaker 1: about like, oh, it's part of the game, blah blah blah. Hey,
1:57
Speaker 1: it ruins the enjoyment of the game. It like takes
2:00
Speaker 1: the game out of the player's hands and it's putting
2:02
Speaker 1: him in the officials hands number one, And it's becoming egregious.
2:06
Speaker 1: And last night that fucking call on the taunting where
2:11
Speaker 1: the ref didn't even throw the flag until after he
2:15
Speaker 1: had hip checked the Bears linebacker. It's appalling. The NFL
2:19
Speaker 1: should be disgusted. It's a fucking pox on the game.
2:24
Speaker 1: How can you watch it? You can't watch it. There's
2:26
Speaker 1: no enjoyment. I'm not getting enjoyment out of watching these
2:28
Speaker 1: games in any way, to be clear, Like I've many instances,
2:33
Speaker 1: not even as a better, just as like as a fan,
2:35
Speaker 1: Like there's turnovers in the red zone. Obviously that's not
2:38
Speaker 1: the league's fall, but the calls themselves. It's like, I
2:43
Speaker 1: don't even Honestly, I didn't even watch the Titans Rams
2:46
Speaker 1: game on Sunday night, did not watch a second of
2:50
Speaker 1: it because I'm just sick of watching the ref's ruin
2:53
Speaker 1: these games. And that's the sickest part is it's a
2:56
Speaker 1: billion dollar business and this guy is deciding the exchange
2:59
Speaker 1: of million and millions of dollars by having his own
3:03
Speaker 1: ego involved. Like his quotes after the game, you can
3:05
Speaker 1: go back and read it. I do think he's gonna
3:07
Speaker 1: either have to step down or he's gonna get punished
3:09
Speaker 1: by the NFL because his comments after the game where
3:12
Speaker 1: he said he didn't say anything. I just saw him
3:15
Speaker 1: turn to their sideline after a celebration, and to me,
3:18
Speaker 1: that's taunting. So this man's taking a own personal like
3:22
Speaker 1: it's not a foul, there's no holding, there's no penalty
3:25
Speaker 1: on the play. He's he's choosing his own ways to
3:28
Speaker 1: determine what's taunting and what's not. That that changed the
3:31
Speaker 1: whole game, Like they literally that one from being a
3:34
Speaker 1: huge sack to a fifteen yard penalty. I needed that
3:37
Speaker 1: game bad, um. I mean, we can talk about this
3:39
Speaker 1: past week basically that Dallas one probably hurt the most.
3:42
Speaker 1: That was our survivor. Pick um. I wish I could
3:45
Speaker 1: act smart, say me and Chad would have avoided that.
3:47
Speaker 1: We had the bills. That was our second plan. So
3:50
Speaker 1: we were going down. We weren't gonna dodge that bullet
3:52
Speaker 1: this week. I mean, I wish I'd go back in
3:54
Speaker 1: time and stick to our guns with Miami. But I
3:57
Speaker 1: was all in on Houston with Tyrod Taylor Beck. I
3:59
Speaker 1: have two big money survivor pulls them in on that
4:02
Speaker 1: of both now because I had the bills my other one.
4:04
Speaker 1: So I don't know about you chatter you left in
4:06
Speaker 1: any because I'm done now for the series I had.
4:09
Speaker 1: We had the Cowboys and then any other one, and
4:11
Speaker 1: I had the bills. Yeah, so you're right there with
4:13
Speaker 1: me sickening. Luckily, some people that I helped do there's
4:16
Speaker 1: like I might maybe bet to get some money out
4:18
Speaker 1: of it. Uh, they went Colts, and then a couple
4:20
Speaker 1: of people went Miami because there's locked on Thursday. So
4:23
Speaker 1: they got lucky with that. But now we we couldn't
4:26
Speaker 1: dodge that bullet that was coming. Chad, the big, big
4:29
Speaker 1: upset weekend. You just gotta stick to your guns. It's hurts.
4:32
Speaker 1: It's painful losing that money on the jaguarys every week.
4:35
Speaker 1: But now I'm sitting up in our profit because I
4:37
Speaker 1: kept believing in the numbers. So I felt like that
4:39
Speaker 1: was a good, humbling week for both of us in
4:41
Speaker 1: many ways. Chad Well, it was also frustrating because I
4:47
Speaker 1: believe in our contest. We went one and four. We
4:52
Speaker 1: are a duo that loves underdogs. This is a week
4:56
Speaker 1: where underdogs I think covered ten of thirteen games, including
5:00
Speaker 1: a Monday night game. Yet the underdogs we chose, we're
5:05
Speaker 1: the only three that lost. The Eagles lost, the Texans
5:09
Speaker 1: didn't cover. The Niners we had as underdogs, they didn't
5:14
Speaker 1: come close like Carolina. I mean, good Lord, that's a
5:21
Speaker 1: special kind of bad luck, bad decision making cat By
5:29
Speaker 1: a disgusting game last night, and it's definitely on me
5:32
Speaker 1: where I'm I'm all I think about is trying to
5:35
Speaker 1: get that's the best of the number, and it's killing us.
5:37
Speaker 1: It's literally killing us this season where I love the Vikings.
5:40
Speaker 1: When we talked about I had a pro reach out
5:41
Speaker 1: to me. Yeah, pretty much told me it was one
5:44
Speaker 1: of his biggest bets of the here. This guy never
5:45
Speaker 1: reached out to me, so he had six and a
5:47
Speaker 1: half Minnesota. We had six in the contest, so I
5:49
Speaker 1: didn't take it. I love Minnesota. I mean, I don't
5:52
Speaker 1: know if I'd be able to talk you into it,
5:54
Speaker 1: but in the contest it was fourteen. I wanted fourteen
5:56
Speaker 1: and a half. As if that's even relevant. It's brutal.
5:58
Speaker 1: I mean, we talked all the time. It's an information business.
6:02
Speaker 1: I had gotten word that Klin Mariam might have been out,
6:04
Speaker 1: so I've been pounding the forty niners all week. I mean,
6:06
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Vikings. I gotta back up against them with
6:09
Speaker 1: the Cowboys. Irrelevant, that hurt. We'll get out of it, Buddy.
6:13
Speaker 1: Usually on Tuesday mornings, when we've had a week like this,
6:15
Speaker 1: I am dreading having to have a conversation about betting again.
6:21
Speaker 1: And after we we talked through it. I always feel
6:24
Speaker 1: better after talking to you because you do this at
6:27
Speaker 1: a level that is obviously much greater than I do.
6:31
Speaker 1: And to hear positivity in your voice and to know
6:34
Speaker 1: that you haven't been leveled or at least you've recovered
6:37
Speaker 1: in the past thirty six hours, it makes me feel optimistic.
6:41
Speaker 1: We talk all the time, though you look. You don't
6:43
Speaker 1: look year to year, month to month, week the week.
6:45
Speaker 1: You're looking five years to ten years. How much money
6:47
Speaker 1: you make five years, ten years. It's just like we
6:50
Speaker 1: talked about time about stock market. You you can't look
6:52
Speaker 1: week the week, month of month. I mean, it sucks.
6:56
Speaker 1: I know that it's gonna turn a corner. It's just
6:57
Speaker 1: things are not going our way. But it's a long
6:59
Speaker 1: term game. You just you can't just think about what
7:02
Speaker 1: happened this week, what happened last week. Yet that's why,
7:05
Speaker 1: as much as it hurts, I still have faith that
7:07
Speaker 1: we're gonna turn around and have a good chance to
7:08
Speaker 1: winning this contest, just because I know that eventually it's
7:11
Speaker 1: gonna flip. Let's get to it. Let's get back on
7:14
Speaker 1: the horse. Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins. The Ravens are
7:19
Speaker 1: visiting the Dolphins. The Dolphins are seven and a half
7:22
Speaker 1: point underdogs. We've got a classic matchup here. We've got
7:25
Speaker 1: a big home dog getting the hook, big number on
7:29
Speaker 1: a Thursday night. I would have loved if the Ravens
7:32
Speaker 1: would have lost that game against the Likings. This would
7:34
Speaker 1: be such a nice spot to take them. Um. But
7:37
Speaker 1: now we have to go the other way. This line
7:39
Speaker 1: has been bumped up so much seven and a half.
7:42
Speaker 1: They're giving us a nice little hook there. Maybe it's
7:44
Speaker 1: a trap, maybe they're sucking us in, But I like
7:47
Speaker 1: that number a lot with this Ravens team again, he's
7:51
Speaker 1: out of this world to more. Can they do it
7:53
Speaker 1: again in a short week coming off that kind of
7:55
Speaker 1: emotional win? Now traveling down to Miami, I don't know,
7:58
Speaker 1: And I saw some really interesting at that. Miami has
8:01
Speaker 1: been great as a big home dog. I don't know, Chat,
8:03
Speaker 1: I don't know if there'll be one of our five.
8:05
Speaker 1: You know, I've been really good on these Thursdays. How
8:07
Speaker 1: can you not take the seven and a half where Miami?
8:10
Speaker 1: I don't know what the deal is with two. That
8:11
Speaker 1: was a weird situation. They had them on the bench
8:14
Speaker 1: but didn't play him like he was their number two quarterback.
8:17
Speaker 1: But they just started per set because of his finger injury.
8:19
Speaker 1: So I'll hold off and see what the deal is.
8:22
Speaker 1: But it's most likely gonna be berset in the start,
8:24
Speaker 1: So it's um. It's a little scary to be back
8:27
Speaker 1: in it. I don't even want to talk about that game,
8:30
Speaker 1: to be honest, it's not going to be one of
8:31
Speaker 1: our five. I think the Dolphins on the right side
8:34
Speaker 1: because of their hook um, but no discernible edge. This
8:39
Speaker 1: next game, though, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team.
8:44
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers are nine and a half point favorites on
8:47
Speaker 1: the road right now. They have not been a road team.
8:51
Speaker 1: The Washington football team defensively improving a little bit. This
8:56
Speaker 1: to me is is an automatic. If I'm not feeling
9:00
Speaker 1: the weight of the past several weeks, I'm looking at
9:04
Speaker 1: this and it's it's it's clear as day. Take the
9:08
Speaker 1: Washington football team plus nine and a half. This is
9:10
Speaker 1: my Simon says, bet there we go. I want people
9:24
Speaker 1: to grab it now. I do. I would love to
9:25
Speaker 1: see it to get to ten. But I can see
9:27
Speaker 1: professionals coming in on this number and bending it down everything.
9:30
Speaker 1: Chad just said, it's true. This Washington team, they are terrible,
9:33
Speaker 1: no doubt. They've been improving. Their defense has been improving.
9:36
Speaker 1: The Buccaneers are just a different team on the road.
9:39
Speaker 1: For some reason, these teams can keep it close to
9:42
Speaker 1: them on the road, where at home they blow teams out.
9:44
Speaker 1: So we'll keep riding that trend. I've I've it's been
9:47
Speaker 1: good to us this season. I think it's four and
9:49
Speaker 1: oh or their own four a t s on the road,
9:52
Speaker 1: this Buccaneers team. So yeah, let's go Washington football team
9:56
Speaker 1: plus nine and says bet the Washington football team. I
10:01
Speaker 1: saw that, and it's rare that, like with the second
10:04
Speaker 1: game on the board, you immediately feel that way. But
10:06
Speaker 1: I did. I felt it. Yeah, I mean you knew,
10:09
Speaker 1: you knew right away though you saw that number. You go.
10:11
Speaker 1: Everyone in the world's been betting this this Bucks team,
10:14
Speaker 1: especially the fact they're coming off a loss, coming off
10:16
Speaker 1: of bye. They're they're gonna be the most public team
10:19
Speaker 1: in my opinion this week Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers.
10:25
Speaker 1: Every one in the world is also going to be
10:26
Speaker 1: betting the Pittsburgh Steelers at minus nine against the visiting
10:30
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions, everyone except for us, because we are betting
10:36
Speaker 1: the d Troit Lions. Really, you love it that much,
10:45
Speaker 1: don't you? I mean, I like it at the same
10:48
Speaker 1: time Detroit, I hate it. I hate betting. But give me,
10:53
Speaker 1: like a legit reason why you don't like it? Why?
10:56
Speaker 1: Why is this game any defense? It's pretty simple. Pittsburgh
11:00
Speaker 1: defense at home. There ain't no justin fields line up
11:03
Speaker 1: across the field, there's no dynamic, uh playmaker. I mean,
11:07
Speaker 1: I guess you could say Swift is the dynamic playmaker
11:09
Speaker 1: for this Detroit team. But man, Pittsburgh's defense is so good.
11:14
Speaker 1: Everything that happened last night was just about how the
11:16
Speaker 1: Bears can run it down your throat and get to
11:17
Speaker 1: get out in space with justin fields. That's why I
11:20
Speaker 1: felt like that was such a difference like that, that
11:22
Speaker 1: was just an incredible lesson that Bears team did. But
11:25
Speaker 1: this Detroit team, I just can't have faith in them
11:28
Speaker 1: against really good defenses. It feels like the games they're
11:31
Speaker 1: able to stay in or against teams that you know
11:33
Speaker 1: they have a lot of weaknesses like they do. Where
11:35
Speaker 1: I look at this Pittsburgh team, that's fair. They shouldn't
11:38
Speaker 1: be Like I get why they shouldn't be fair by
11:40
Speaker 1: this many points because their offense is so bad. But
11:43
Speaker 1: you're giving me this defense at home outdoors against Jared Golf.
11:47
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take this Pittsburgh team every time. So you're
11:50
Speaker 1: on Detroit, I'm on Pittsburgh. We've got we're a difference here.
11:54
Speaker 1: I think you're crazy. Just if you just look at
11:58
Speaker 1: this number we've got a team that just one dramatically
12:01
Speaker 1: in prime time. Again, they don't look good though they
12:04
Speaker 1: should have lost against the Wind. Doesn't matter that. It
12:07
Speaker 1: doesn't matter. The public isn't thinking about whether or not
12:11
Speaker 1: they looked good or if they should have lost. The
12:14
Speaker 1: public is only thinking about this is a team public, right, Yeah,
12:19
Speaker 1: go to your action at app. You're a square in it.
12:22
Speaker 1: You're on a square dog. I'm just guessing the public,
12:26
Speaker 1: I am right. Yeah. Now, I felt like that it
12:30
Speaker 1: was gonna be a trap that, Like, I just think
12:32
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh didn't play that great last night, so I feel
12:35
Speaker 1: like the public will be on where we're going against them.
12:37
Speaker 1: But now we can we can just skip it. Bro,
12:39
Speaker 1: you're on the other side. I'm on the other side.
12:40
Speaker 1: That's how it goes sometimes. God damn it. Listen last week.
12:45
Speaker 1: This next game, Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots. The
12:49
Speaker 1: Browns are one and a half point underdogs right now.
12:53
Speaker 1: The Patriots are fucking with their heads. We have been
12:55
Speaker 1: going against them for a few weeks. Keep thinking you're
12:59
Speaker 1: getting ripped in the Twitter sphere because you keep saying
13:02
Speaker 1: Mac Jones isn't anything special, and then they keep winning touchdowns.
13:07
Speaker 1: Center seven in receptions and Mac Jones, Yeah he's special
13:10
Speaker 1: waiting on that one defensive much. I know I can
13:15
Speaker 1: triggered you by just saying the Twitter sphere is against you. Um,
13:19
Speaker 1: but look, we've been against the Patriots the past couple
13:21
Speaker 1: of weeks. We're wrong on them. We originally like the
13:27
Speaker 1: Bengals of minus two and a half. Then are thinking
13:30
Speaker 1: evolved even though they stayed as my uh scooch roulette
13:35
Speaker 1: pick last week. So I lost. You got an early
13:37
Speaker 1: lean here. I don't. I don't have a great read
13:39
Speaker 1: on this. I guess I guess my instinct is take
13:43
Speaker 1: the very very very short home favorite. Yeah that's how
13:46
Speaker 1: I felt when, like first, when I saw this line
13:48
Speaker 1: pop up, my instincts were good. Just called Patriots here Bears,
13:52
Speaker 1: I mean not bears. Brown has had a huge emotional
13:54
Speaker 1: win in division. I mean that was I feel like,
13:59
Speaker 1: That's what sucks about the show is we said we'd
14:01
Speaker 1: like since and then as soon as Darren told us
14:03
Speaker 1: that the money at Vandal sports book or one of
14:07
Speaker 1: the sports books was bet on Cincinnati. I mean you
14:12
Speaker 1: both said to each other, Okay, now we have to bet.
14:14
Speaker 1: We have to go bet the Browns because That's just
14:17
Speaker 1: that's the rarest of rare opportunities where a book has
14:21
Speaker 1: that much money coming in on one side and they
14:23
Speaker 1: haven't changed the number at all. Um, that was like
14:25
Speaker 1: a dead giveaway. So that hurt. But looking at this week,
14:30
Speaker 1: how can we not take the Patriots at home? I
14:32
Speaker 1: have been fading them for good reason. I just did
14:35
Speaker 1: not believe in Mac Jones. Uh still don't, But it
14:39
Speaker 1: looks like Patriots defense has kind of figured this thing out.
14:41
Speaker 1: Bill's got the guys playing at a really high level
14:44
Speaker 1: right now. It's back to back road wins. That. Yeah,
14:47
Speaker 1: you can say what you want that Mac did have
14:49
Speaker 1: some big key moments. It's really been about this defense. Um,
14:53
Speaker 1: coming home against Baker, it's hard not to take this
14:57
Speaker 1: Patriots team, But I'm with you that it's it's a
15:00
Speaker 1: little scary way. I can see both sides, So maybe
15:02
Speaker 1: I'll need a little bit more time to see where
15:04
Speaker 1: this number settles at. But you know, if this gets
15:07
Speaker 1: up to plus three with Cleveland, we'd probably end up
15:09
Speaker 1: being on Cleveland. But as it sits right now, with
15:11
Speaker 1: this number of minus one, minus one and a half,
15:13
Speaker 1: I would take the Patriots. Look, it's not just the
15:16
Speaker 1: Patriots defense. It's the Patriots offensive line and what they're
15:19
Speaker 1: doing at the running game. Yeah. I mean again, take
15:23
Speaker 1: away the pick six last week? What how many points
15:25
Speaker 1: do they have? The twenty four total points take away
15:27
Speaker 1: pick six? I don't know. They're all right, like their
15:30
Speaker 1: offense has been all right. It's uh, it's just hard
15:33
Speaker 1: for me to get so hyped up about Mac Jones
15:35
Speaker 1: where it's like his numbers are, there's nothing special. He's
15:39
Speaker 1: just been a really good game manager. So I'm not
15:40
Speaker 1: I'll try not to shoot on him anymore. But you
15:43
Speaker 1: know my feels about Mac Jones, It's hard for you
15:46
Speaker 1: to hide them. He is what he is. Jacksonville Jaguars
15:51
Speaker 1: at Indianapolis Colts. The Jacksonville Jaguars who broke our hearts,
15:56
Speaker 1: who found a way to force eight was in turnovers
16:01
Speaker 1: on their side of the field against Josh Allen and
16:05
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, Matt Mitchell's beloved Buffalo Bills. I mean,
16:09
Speaker 1: what the fuck this guy? Like the fumbles they just
16:14
Speaker 1: get They gave that game away. They gave it away.
16:18
Speaker 1: They fucking gave that game away. It was it was
16:22
Speaker 1: disgusting and dispiriting to watch that game. Jack Rogers tenant
16:26
Speaker 1: a half point dogs. Give me the Colts. This is
16:28
Speaker 1: a no brainer. Ye, same page. You take the Colts here.
16:32
Speaker 1: The Jaguars, they did nothing last week. Good, but all
16:36
Speaker 1: they did was have a guy named Josh Allen on
16:38
Speaker 1: their own team. That was just the game record of
16:40
Speaker 1: game records. I believe he had sack, a fumbal recovery,
16:44
Speaker 1: and a pick. Incredible. I like that was the definition
16:47
Speaker 1: of a football game where it's like nothing in that
16:49
Speaker 1: game makes sense. You can go back and watch it.
16:53
Speaker 1: None of them makes sense. That was just a bizarre
16:55
Speaker 1: game where we've been talking about Josh Allen has not
16:58
Speaker 1: looked right. This this season was going a culmination of everything.
17:01
Speaker 1: He just could not get it right. In that game.
17:03
Speaker 1: He he literally reverted back to what he was doing
17:05
Speaker 1: as a rookie, like stupid passes, overthinking things. His feet
17:09
Speaker 1: were always shuffling like he wouldn't set them before. He
17:11
Speaker 1: was throwing really bad. The Jaguars team offense did nothing
17:15
Speaker 1: to impress me. I mean Trevor Lawrence. We talked coming
17:18
Speaker 1: in the year, like I did not like his situation
17:20
Speaker 1: coming into the season with his jaguarris team, but I
17:23
Speaker 1: saw the talent I said, if they have good coaching,
17:25
Speaker 1: maybe a little able to make a good for him.
17:27
Speaker 1: He's regressed so much in so many different ways. Like
17:30
Speaker 1: it's third and five, I feel like this kid can't
17:32
Speaker 1: complete the pass. Uh, it's bad. So you're giving me
17:35
Speaker 1: a cold steam, an extended rest that can run a
17:37
Speaker 1: ball down the throat of this Jaguars team. I love
17:42
Speaker 1: the cold especially with the extented rest. Here um scary.
17:45
Speaker 1: It's time a half. I would like it better for
17:47
Speaker 1: his that ten or maybe a little under, because we
17:49
Speaker 1: saw last week with that Jets team, they had two
17:52
Speaker 1: different quarterbacks that are driving up and down the field.
17:54
Speaker 1: On this Colts defense, maybe we can just chalk it
17:57
Speaker 1: up to being a short, short week and that's why
17:59
Speaker 1: they're cold. Defense was so bad. But that that's the
18:02
Speaker 1: only pause was not taking this as one of our picks,
18:04
Speaker 1: that ten and a half because that that called defense
18:06
Speaker 1: look bad. I think that was an anomaly. I think
18:10
Speaker 1: you're coming off an incredibly physical game against the Titans.
18:14
Speaker 1: Short week, this is a much better spot for them.
18:18
Speaker 1: They know the Jags. The Jags are a terrible team.
18:21
Speaker 1: This is a get healthy week after ten days off.
18:24
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor runs for yards in a game. Uh the
18:29
Speaker 1: culture smash spot smash it. Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys.
18:35
Speaker 1: The Falcons are visiting the Cowboys this week. They are
18:39
Speaker 1: currently nine point underdogs. I love the Falcons. Last week
18:46
Speaker 1: against the Saints. On Sunday morning, I said to you,
18:51
Speaker 1: why not the Falcons plus six? You told me you
18:53
Speaker 1: had too much on the Saints. You couldn't bet against yourself.
18:56
Speaker 1: I'm like, we're a Falcons podcast. How are we not
18:59
Speaker 1: taking the Alkins plus six against god knows who's playing quarterback.
19:04
Speaker 1: Now the Falcons are plus nine against the Cowboys. What
19:09
Speaker 1: has happened? Why am I taking all these big favorites.
19:11
Speaker 1: I have this rated at ten, so I technically have
19:14
Speaker 1: to take Dallas here, but I don't want to. But
19:18
Speaker 1: apparently the public is overrating in Atlanta a little bit,
19:20
Speaker 1: so it's off by point to me. I'll be on
19:23
Speaker 1: Dallas coming into this game as long as stays under ten. Well,
19:27
Speaker 1: it's interesting the bets that the Cowboys are the wise
19:32
Speaker 1: guy favorite here. Really? Yeah, the publics on the Falcons.
19:39
Speaker 1: The money is on the Cowboys. I mean it makes sense.
19:44
Speaker 1: I feel like they're looking in the same way as me.
19:46
Speaker 1: It's Dallas yeah, they're awful last week. Um, the biggest
19:51
Speaker 1: weakness to them look like it's the run defense. I
19:54
Speaker 1: mean the Denver was picking up five eight yards to
19:57
Speaker 1: clip every time they're running on first down. Atlanta and
20:00
Speaker 1: built that way. Atlanta doesn't move the ball on the ground,
20:03
Speaker 1: they move it through the air. So it does go
20:06
Speaker 1: towards what Cowboys defend well. They defend the pass game well.
20:09
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna gonna end up on the Cowboys here.
20:12
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be hard to convince you to take
20:14
Speaker 1: a nine point favorite chat. I I just can't see
20:16
Speaker 1: you taking it with me. I don't know like I
20:19
Speaker 1: would take the I would take the I don't hate it.
20:22
Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like this is the exact
20:25
Speaker 1: right time to do it because of what you just said. Right,
20:27
Speaker 1: if we're if I forget about everything that has happened
20:31
Speaker 1: to us, if I forget about the trauma of the
20:33
Speaker 1: past couple of weeks, and I get out of my head,
20:36
Speaker 1: I'm looking this and I'm thinking the Falcons big win
20:40
Speaker 1: against a really good defense, the Cowboys getting blown out
20:44
Speaker 1: at home with that coming back, like, this is the
20:48
Speaker 1: exact spot where you should play the Cowboys. You've got
20:50
Speaker 1: an over inflated under inflated scenario, and I agree that
20:53
Speaker 1: like this is where the Cowboys defense matches up well
20:57
Speaker 1: versus the Broncos. It wasn't a great matchup for them.
20:59
Speaker 1: So I kind of like the Cowboys here. In fact,
21:02
Speaker 1: I've just talked myself into making it one of their
21:05
Speaker 1: top five. Yeah, it's interesting now there, Oh my god,
21:10
Speaker 1: because now it's interesting. We've got a Washington football team
21:14
Speaker 1: that we love, gotta Pat's Brown's game that we're keeping
21:18
Speaker 1: an eye on, and we got a Cowboys game ninus
21:22
Speaker 1: ninus nine or minus ten that we love it. If
21:23
Speaker 1: this game gets to ten, what do you think you
21:25
Speaker 1: still like it? I just wouldn't touch it. But if
21:28
Speaker 1: I got up to like ten and a half eleven,
21:30
Speaker 1: then had come back and on their side of Thetlanta,
21:32
Speaker 1: I do think this has got a key number with
21:33
Speaker 1: the ten. So that's why had nine. I'm I'm on.
21:37
Speaker 1: I'm on this Cowboys team because I had this had ten. Okay,
21:40
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans. The Saints are three
21:45
Speaker 1: point dogs. You're visiting the Titans. It I love the Saints. Yick.
21:50
Speaker 1: Let's go fox, old baby, all right, we're in the
21:54
Speaker 1: fox let's clode down into the foxhole. No one else
22:03
Speaker 1: is gonna join us here. Everyone hated what they saw
22:05
Speaker 1: from the Saints last week. People got burned. I loved
22:08
Speaker 1: that I saw for them the second half. It just
22:10
Speaker 1: seemed like the first half they slept walk and the
22:13
Speaker 1: Atlanta came out. I believe they got a touchdown right
22:15
Speaker 1: before the end of the half, so they just had
22:17
Speaker 1: a big cushion. Saints came all the way back, took
22:20
Speaker 1: a lead, and then Matt Ryan, he's been clutches year
22:22
Speaker 1: at the end of games, he really called up a
22:25
Speaker 1: nice play. Hit Quitel Pattison down the sideline for a
22:27
Speaker 1: long play and they end up putting the game on
22:28
Speaker 1: a field goal. Now, the Saints team, I don't know
22:33
Speaker 1: what to really think about Trevor Simeon, but I knew
22:37
Speaker 1: it kind of worked. Like their offense, it kind of
22:39
Speaker 1: works what they're doing with them, Um, they're they're doing
22:42
Speaker 1: smart stuff where they're having quick, quick passes by him.
22:45
Speaker 1: If he really needs help, he's got Camara the backfield. Tennessee.
22:50
Speaker 1: I did not see this coming. I mean, this run
22:52
Speaker 1: there on right now these last five weeks, um crazy.
22:56
Speaker 1: The amount of money I've lost to going against him.
22:58
Speaker 1: I got a little bit of back take. There's seven
23:00
Speaker 1: and a half against the Rams. That was more about
23:02
Speaker 1: me fadon Stafford. I didn't touch their moneyline because I
23:04
Speaker 1: did not see Tennessee win in this game, because I said,
23:07
Speaker 1: I felt to myself, how are they gonna, you know,
23:09
Speaker 1: close this game out? They have no Derrick Henry Like,
23:12
Speaker 1: just where this defense out to end this game? They
23:15
Speaker 1: didn't need them. Their defense stiff stepped up Stafford turned
23:18
Speaker 1: back into a pumpkin and just fell apart in that game.
23:21
Speaker 1: Tennessee is getting hyped now. Everyone's all in. They think
23:24
Speaker 1: they're the number one team in the a f C.
23:26
Speaker 1: I think it doesn't matter they lost Derrick Henry Man.
23:29
Speaker 1: People are all in on this team. Perfect time to
23:32
Speaker 1: come in and take this Saints team. You're getting plus
23:34
Speaker 1: three right now. I think we're gonna get three and
23:36
Speaker 1: a half to if it keeps going up, people are
23:39
Speaker 1: gonna keep betting this Tennessee's side. So I'll grab the
23:41
Speaker 1: three now that it's there, but I'll grab it even
23:43
Speaker 1: more if you get some three and a half. I
23:46
Speaker 1: love it. I love it, I love it, I love it.
23:49
Speaker 1: We're in the foxhole. I love taking the Saints. Alright.
23:53
Speaker 1: So now our Simon says is Washington Football team plus
23:57
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Our foxhill is Saints plus three.
24:03
Speaker 1: Betting means doing bad things. This is not the podcast
24:07
Speaker 1: where we are going to tell you what you want
24:09
Speaker 1: to hear. Yeah, we take some dogs and we take
24:11
Speaker 1: some big favorites. Chad were all over the place. We're
24:13
Speaker 1: gonna tell you what you need to hear. Buffalo Bills
24:20
Speaker 1: at New York Jets. This is a thirteen point spread
24:26
Speaker 1: right now. J E t Yes, Jets, Jets Chats. I
24:36
Speaker 1: mean Mike White. This guy looks great. That's why I
24:39
Speaker 1: can't believe he's coming back. He should just retire after
24:42
Speaker 1: that first drive he had against the Colts. Like people
24:45
Speaker 1: are all in on him. I want him as my
24:47
Speaker 1: as my backup, at least on my team. Like this
24:49
Speaker 1: guy looks like a quarterback. The Bills are reeling. Usually
24:54
Speaker 1: I would be on the Bills and a bounce back
24:55
Speaker 1: spot here. I don't want to fade Mike White. Like
24:58
Speaker 1: if they if you would have played that full and
25:00
Speaker 1: against the Colts, I have no doubt that Jets are
25:01
Speaker 1: gonna cover that ten and a half like that kid
25:04
Speaker 1: drove right down the field. No problem is opening drive.
25:08
Speaker 1: So it sounds like they're gonna sit Zack Wilson another week.
25:11
Speaker 1: It's gonna be Mike White again. We're gonna get burned somehow,
25:15
Speaker 1: aren't we by being all all in on this guy.
25:18
Speaker 1: But at thirteen and a half points, give me that cushion.
25:21
Speaker 1: Even at thirteen points, I'm still happy with the numbers.
25:24
Speaker 1: So this day is above twelve and a half, days,
25:26
Speaker 1: above ten, all those key numbers. I love taking this
25:29
Speaker 1: Jets team. Yeah, this doesn't even feel like a Mike
25:32
Speaker 1: White play to me as much as it just feels
25:35
Speaker 1: like the Jets are showing some resiliency, especially at home.
25:42
Speaker 1: When we've back to the Jets in the biggest ways.
25:46
Speaker 1: It's been in these spots against it's been in games
25:50
Speaker 1: where it's been against the Titans at home, it was
25:53
Speaker 1: against the Bengals at home. This to me feels like
25:56
Speaker 1: the Exacts, But were they end up doing what we
25:59
Speaker 1: think they can do, which is cover No, You're exactly right,
26:03
Speaker 1: and like we had to keep going with it. It's
26:05
Speaker 1: been good to us. So that's that's I don't even
26:07
Speaker 1: think about that we have to be on the Jets. Now,
26:09
Speaker 1: they've been nothing but great to us at home. I
26:12
Speaker 1: think they only letdown game they had for us was
26:14
Speaker 1: against the Patriots at home. Every other game they've pretty
26:16
Speaker 1: much been in it. Yeah, and who doesn't have letdown
26:18
Speaker 1: games against Mac Jones. He's amazing. I mean even you
26:21
Speaker 1: could admit that. He's probably one of the best quarterbacks
26:24
Speaker 1: to come out of the draft in the past ten years.
26:26
Speaker 1: It's like Patrick Mahomes, Mike White and Mac Jones. That's
26:32
Speaker 1: probably three best quarterbacks. No broughbably great Joey. The Patriots
26:38
Speaker 1: fans are back to their old ways defending a dirty
26:40
Speaker 1: player like Mac Jones on Twitter after listen to you
26:48
Speaker 1: that is great. Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers. The
26:54
Speaker 1: Vikings are two and a half point dogs. This game
26:57
Speaker 1: opened at three. Two really hard teams to a read on.
27:00
Speaker 1: Right now we pass like it's not a great number.
27:03
Speaker 1: I'm on the Chargers and the simple fact that this
27:06
Speaker 1: is a good number for them, but I can't do
27:09
Speaker 1: it at any moment. This Viking team could turn it on.
27:11
Speaker 1: That's the worst part. Like last week when I bet
27:13
Speaker 1: on Minnesota, what was it a kick return? They got
27:16
Speaker 1: to start the second half and then to score again
27:20
Speaker 1: until the last minute of the half. Like, it doesn't
27:23
Speaker 1: make sense how the Vikings can be such a dominant,
27:26
Speaker 1: good offense and then just disappear for two quarters. So um,
27:31
Speaker 1: I still don't love what I've seen from the Chargers,
27:33
Speaker 1: but in this position, I guess I'm on the Chargers.
27:36
Speaker 1: But this this will most definitely not be one of
27:38
Speaker 1: our top picks. The Vikings are in every single game
27:41
Speaker 1: until they lose every single game, right, I mean, I
27:45
Speaker 1: feel terrible for their fan base. They've been by far
27:47
Speaker 1: the most disappointing team this year. It is hurtful. It
27:50
Speaker 1: is hurtful them. It's stunning. It's stunning to see their collapse.
27:54
Speaker 1: It's stunning to see them lose the way they lose.
27:56
Speaker 1: You gotta wonder, sort of is this a coaching thinging
28:00
Speaker 1: at this point? Is it something Mike Zimmer can't get
28:02
Speaker 1: them over the hump on and people want them fired.
28:06
Speaker 1: I can't hate them because their defense has been awful,
28:08
Speaker 1: and that's Mike. That's apparently is supposed to be like
28:10
Speaker 1: Zimmer specialty, and they had great defense all these years
28:13
Speaker 1: he was there. The last two or three years, they
28:15
Speaker 1: just have not been good and they have not drafted
28:17
Speaker 1: well either, so I would not. If I was a
28:20
Speaker 1: liking fan, I wouldn't want him fired. But as someone
28:22
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Speaker 1: Let's get back to the show. Carolina Panthers at Arizona
30:26
Speaker 1: Cardinals Arizona Cardinals, who are un beatable. It doesn't matter
30:32
Speaker 1: who's playing quarterback, doesn't matter who's playing receiver, doesn't matter
30:36
Speaker 1: who's playing running back. This team with Cliff Kingsbury as coach,
30:42
Speaker 1: is roaring flying. I should say. In November they are
30:47
Speaker 1: hosting the Panthers. Cardinals are ten point favorites. I got
30:52
Speaker 1: so much to say right now. Simon Sam Donald, Oh
30:55
Speaker 1: my god. Wow, the fact that like the Panthers gave
31:02
Speaker 1: up Teddy Bridgewater traded for Donald when they went when
31:06
Speaker 1: they read it, when they've got a great coach, and like,
31:10
Speaker 1: why is he letting this happen? They gotta question everybody's
31:13
Speaker 1: judgment in the Panthers organization when they're allowing themselves to
31:17
Speaker 1: put their future in Sam Donald's hands. I'm right there
31:22
Speaker 1: with him though, Like if you go back and watch
31:25
Speaker 1: this kid in college, his footwork, his quick release, like
31:30
Speaker 1: he was so good and he was so young coming out.
31:33
Speaker 1: I think he when he was drafted he was twenty
31:34
Speaker 1: years old by the Jets. Um it's over. He's awful.
31:39
Speaker 1: Like his decision making, everything he does is just bad.
31:42
Speaker 1: It's stupid. His like his footwork is sloppy. Now his
31:45
Speaker 1: Reeds are terrible. That was a silver platter game. And
31:51
Speaker 1: like people said he sees ghosts against the Patriots, he
31:53
Speaker 1: really did. Like his interceptions. He was throwing it to
31:56
Speaker 1: guys who were double covered and he's just putting it
31:58
Speaker 1: right to the guy underneath in the car rich. It
32:00
Speaker 1: was awful to watch. So I will be on the Panthers,
32:04
Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna make you better. But my hope
32:06
Speaker 1: is that Sam Donald's hurt and p J Walker and
32:09
Speaker 1: quarterback because with McCaffrey back um again. The Arizona thing
32:16
Speaker 1: was brutal. Like I felt like I had great information
32:18
Speaker 1: knowing that Kyler was out and when Hopkins was out,
32:21
Speaker 1: it was just icing on the cake. It was like, Wow,
32:23
Speaker 1: I got a really good number here and taking a
32:25
Speaker 1: sporting and orange team that was that was a bad
32:28
Speaker 1: read by me. I mean, the Cardinals just beat them
32:30
Speaker 1: in every way. They beat him all offensively, beat him, defensively,
32:33
Speaker 1: beat him on special teams. Everything, they dominated them. So
32:36
Speaker 1: the Cardinals they're overrated. Right now, this line is propped up.
32:40
Speaker 1: They don't know who the quarterback is and this line
32:42
Speaker 1: is still ten that that's how like the public saying,
32:44
Speaker 1: we don't care if it's called McCoy. That's how bad
32:46
Speaker 1: we think this Carolina team is. I'm on the other
32:49
Speaker 1: way where I think this defense is legit for Carolina.
32:51
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep banging that drum. I do think this
32:54
Speaker 1: Carolina's defense is legit. If you're giving p J. Walker
32:58
Speaker 1: running this offense, not throwing three picks in a game,
33:00
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to keep it close. And ten
33:02
Speaker 1: points is a lot of points. So I will be
33:05
Speaker 1: on Carolina, but I'm not been there right now. I'm
33:06
Speaker 1: gonna wait and see where the quarterback is. First, big
33:09
Speaker 1: quote McCoy fan, Big, big quote McCoy fan. Story again.
33:15
Speaker 1: If I told you the Colt McCoy story, I feel
33:17
Speaker 1: like any time his name is mentioned, I heard it,
33:20
Speaker 1: which I don't mind. Chad, I'm I'm waiting. We're all
33:22
Speaker 1: waiting for it now. I just feel like you're one
33:25
Speaker 1: of my kids and you're like, really, you're gonna tell
33:27
Speaker 1: this story again? I do love it. You just talking
33:29
Speaker 1: about how he thought as a professional, because that was
33:32
Speaker 1: my favorite thing. It was like your whole thing with
33:33
Speaker 1: Alex Smith, just a professional quarterback, Alex Smith, professional quarterback.
33:40
Speaker 1: Two thou nine, Me and my buddy Chris Baron, who
33:45
Speaker 1: now has a massive job at NBC News. We were
33:49
Speaker 1: editors at ESPN the magazine. Our bosses said, we want
33:53
Speaker 1: to remake what the front of the magazine looks like.
33:56
Speaker 1: That first twenty pages. Do something that's never been done.
34:00
Speaker 1: Let's reimagine the whole thing. Me and Chris go on
34:04
Speaker 1: and around the country boondog and we just sort of
34:08
Speaker 1: use it as an excuse to go talk to people
34:12
Speaker 1: we think are interesting, cool, creative, might have ideas, get
34:16
Speaker 1: different perspectives on everything we do. Everything from we we
34:19
Speaker 1: talked to a improv comedy troupe in New York called
34:23
Speaker 1: the Neo Futurists, and we spoke to this sort of hip,
34:29
Speaker 1: cool ad agency. I forgot where they were. And Chris,
34:33
Speaker 1: who grew up in Austin, went to UT. At the time,
34:37
Speaker 1: the Long Huns had Colt McCoy. They were contending for
34:40
Speaker 1: national titles. He was going to be a senior, so
34:43
Speaker 1: he had just been an All American at at UT.
34:47
Speaker 1: Me and Chris go down to UT. We sit in
34:49
Speaker 1: the athletic facility in Austin. We sit with Colt and
34:52
Speaker 1: one of their receivers I can't remember, but he was
34:54
Speaker 1: good and then he played in the NFL for a
34:56
Speaker 1: couple of years as a kick returner for the Bengals,
35:00
Speaker 1: and me and Chris and Colt. Colt McCoy gave us
35:03
Speaker 1: so many good ideas about how athletes think about media,
35:07
Speaker 1: how athletes think about stories. Could athletes contribute in different ways?
35:11
Speaker 1: He was amazing. I've loved them ever since. That's the story,
35:15
Speaker 1: go cold, all right, So we're gonna wait on some
35:18
Speaker 1: news here. Eagles. I don't feel badly like we've already
35:22
Speaker 1: got five games that we really like and we still
35:24
Speaker 1: got three games to go. Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos.
35:29
Speaker 1: Another story I will tell Sunday morning. You said, you
35:33
Speaker 1: want to put in the Raiders or you want to
35:34
Speaker 1: put in the Eagles. After you told me we couldn't
35:36
Speaker 1: put in the Falcons and I said, I don't want
35:38
Speaker 1: to put in the Raiders. You said, I want to
35:40
Speaker 1: put in the Eagles. And I will not ask you
35:42
Speaker 1: to bet the Eagles again if they do not cover
35:45
Speaker 1: this game. You were two point away. They would have
35:48
Speaker 1: missed that two point on the charges, we would have
35:50
Speaker 1: covered that one and a half, but life decided otherwise.
35:54
Speaker 1: You take the Eagles to your plus three Denver, coming
35:56
Speaker 1: off their biggest one of the season blow. When public
35:59
Speaker 1: is all over them, the public hates the Eagles, will
36:02
Speaker 1: keep getting numbered value even though Chad hates betting the Eagles.
36:06
Speaker 1: If you've got three year book right now, the Eagles,
36:08
Speaker 1: you just take that number. Um, the pros are gonna
36:10
Speaker 1: bet that number down. So I'm not I'm just I'm
36:13
Speaker 1: a man of my word. I'm not making you put
36:15
Speaker 1: it in because I can't do it either. I can't
36:16
Speaker 1: take it anymore. So I'm cool with passing on this one.
36:20
Speaker 1: You know, when we were in Philly, uh this past
36:22
Speaker 1: weekend because we had to go to Philly my kid
36:24
Speaker 1: broke his leg. He had surgery at U Penn Presbyterian.
36:29
Speaker 1: I will say that when there was amazing the medical staff,
36:33
Speaker 1: the PT the doctors, the nurses, they were all awesome.
36:36
Speaker 1: They all had the best Philly accents. You think, like
36:39
Speaker 1: a lot of people that you pen, they weren't all
36:41
Speaker 1: Philly people, but there were so many Philly people and
36:44
Speaker 1: their accents were just amazing. And they talked about the
36:49
Speaker 1: Eagles and they were so excited for the Eagles Charters
36:51
Speaker 1: game and some of them were going to the game. Oh,
36:54
Speaker 1: my god, it was just great. Yeah, Pen's a great
36:57
Speaker 1: hospital man. He did a great job. He's already walking
36:59
Speaker 1: around on his crutches and you know he'll be fine.
37:02
Speaker 1: It's there John. They got a John. Yeah, this John,
37:06
Speaker 1: that John. Yeah, I love it. Oh my god, it
37:09
Speaker 1: was so good. Philly is a great town. Certain parts. Well.
37:12
Speaker 1: The drive I was making from written House our hotel
37:14
Speaker 1: and Written House Square to uh Market Street to U
37:18
Speaker 1: Penn Presbyterian was just if you're in Center City or
37:21
Speaker 1: written House Square, life is good. And it was great.
37:25
Speaker 1: It was totally great. All right. Seattle Seahawks at Green
37:29
Speaker 1: Bay Packers. Aaron Rodgers, he's taken a beating right well
37:34
Speaker 1: deserved by the way. He just seems like a douche.
37:36
Speaker 1: We've said this before. This is not a political statement
37:38
Speaker 1: about Aaron Rodgers. We've said from the beginning of the season,
37:41
Speaker 1: from when he came back and was like, people are
37:43
Speaker 1: only coming here for me, we thought he was a
37:45
Speaker 1: douche from the beginning. This is you. Let the record show,
37:48
Speaker 1: this is Matt Mitchell and Chad that's that's your thick.
37:50
Speaker 1: Aarons a douche. I just think he's not a good person.
37:53
Speaker 1: I'm in that camp. Wait a second, you can be
37:56
Speaker 1: a not a good person but not be a douche. Yeah,
37:59
Speaker 1: there's certain type a douche. I'm with you, though. He
38:01
Speaker 1: does have douche tendencies. Um, that's for sure. But I
38:06
Speaker 1: I love Aaron like he's one of these guys I
38:09
Speaker 1: watched in film. I love watching him play football, so
38:11
Speaker 1: I can't call him a douche. He's so smooth, damn it.
38:15
Speaker 1: Yeah again, he got shipped on all week and then
38:17
Speaker 1: came Sunday. Every Packers fan was like, holy sh it,
38:20
Speaker 1: this guy can never leave us after watching Jordan Love play,
38:22
Speaker 1: which it's so typical football fans. It's like the guy
38:25
Speaker 1: played in one game. Can't we give him a little
38:27
Speaker 1: bit of life here? I don't know. We're supposed to
38:29
Speaker 1: bet a game where you have Russell Wilson coming back
38:31
Speaker 1: from thumb surgery and then Rogers doesn't practice for two weeks.
38:34
Speaker 1: What the hell are we supposed to do with this one? Chad?
38:36
Speaker 1: Do we just pass? I would take the Seahawks, you would, Yeah,
38:41
Speaker 1: that's fair. I can't do it. I probably lean towards
38:45
Speaker 1: Green Bay. I just think they're the better team. I
38:48
Speaker 1: think you have to in these cases. I love watching
38:50
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers play football too. I can call him douche
38:53
Speaker 1: and also think that as a quarterback he's been kind
38:55
Speaker 1: of douchey, and if he wasn't so vain, he might
38:58
Speaker 1: have won two or three more Super Bowls. No, not
39:00
Speaker 1: with Mike McCarthy. Come on, all right, Well you can on.
39:03
Speaker 1: You and I can have different opinions. How about the Chiefs,
39:05
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders. It's a great
39:10
Speaker 1: study in how lines have changed. The look aheadline on
39:13
Speaker 1: this was seven and a half now it's two and
39:15
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, isn't that crazy? Yeah, Chiefs are cooked.
39:19
Speaker 1: They suck. I rewatched that Green Bay game, like can
39:23
Speaker 1: you imagine just two years ago watching like the game
39:26
Speaker 1: film of the Chiefs offense. Right now, it's Mahomes looks lost.
39:31
Speaker 1: I think in fantasy right now, he's been QB twenty
39:33
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row, which again, I know people
39:36
Speaker 1: hate fantasy football. That's more about his stats are that
39:39
Speaker 1: bad compared to all these other guys in the league,
39:41
Speaker 1: And it's not like he's been playing great, great defenses.
39:43
Speaker 1: So what we do We just we have to fade
39:46
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, right they're broken Las Vegas. That was a
39:49
Speaker 1: big letdown spot obviously, um they have there are a
39:53
Speaker 1: lot of their own issues going on. This is a
39:55
Speaker 1: prime time we we we usually take the Chiefs here.
39:58
Speaker 1: I wish it was still three and a half maybe four,
40:00
Speaker 1: but the part of the pros have just bet us
40:02
Speaker 1: all the way down now to two and a half.
40:04
Speaker 1: So I still don't hate it, but I'm hoping it
40:07
Speaker 1: gets back to three Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco
40:17
Speaker 1: forty Niners. The Rams are four, four and a half
40:22
Speaker 1: point favorites on the road. In our life, we would
40:27
Speaker 1: always say automatic take Kyle Shanahan, and he continues to
40:31
Speaker 1: disappoint as a favorite though. That's the that's the key here.
40:34
Speaker 1: This man is awful as a favorite at home. We
40:37
Speaker 1: take him here as a dog at home. I understand
40:41
Speaker 1: everyone listening to this is out on the forty Niners.
40:43
Speaker 1: I two was burned hardly by them last week, but
40:46
Speaker 1: I have to take them here. This is way too
40:49
Speaker 1: many points in a divisional matchup. My only pause is
40:54
Speaker 1: a lot of injuries for this four Niners team. They've
40:56
Speaker 1: kind of been catching up them on the defensive side,
40:58
Speaker 1: so their secondary is very, very vulnerable, but somehow Tennessee
41:03
Speaker 1: just shut down this Rams offense and they have even
41:05
Speaker 1: more injuries Tennessee in their secondary. So it's hard not
41:09
Speaker 1: to take a plus four points where I think, you know,
41:12
Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks ago, this might have been
41:13
Speaker 1: minus three for the four nine ers. Now it's move
41:16
Speaker 1: seven points, interesting, interesting line movements. So I will be
41:21
Speaker 1: taking the Niners here. But as we sit here on Tuesday,
41:23
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's one of our best bets.
41:25
Speaker 1: But I know a couple of professionals we've got pretty
41:27
Speaker 1: big on this four Niners team. Really yeah. A couple
41:31
Speaker 1: of guys reached out to me on what was that
41:34
Speaker 1: Monday morning? They're just saying, like, what kind of bets
41:36
Speaker 1: I made Sunday night and Monday morning? I really haven't
41:38
Speaker 1: done much, And two different guys to me they really
41:41
Speaker 1: loved the four Niners here. So I had to put
41:43
Speaker 1: it out there, like I I had this number graded
41:45
Speaker 1: at I think it was plus two four nineis at home.
41:49
Speaker 1: Now it's up to four, so I see two points
41:51
Speaker 1: of line movement. These other pros I talked to, they
41:53
Speaker 1: had four minus one. They have them favorite in this matchups.
41:56
Speaker 1: I think it's five points in line movement, so that
41:58
Speaker 1: they're all over this number. I feel like we're telling
42:02
Speaker 1: the same story we did last week with this team
42:10
Speaker 1: great spot power rated huge. I mean they had two
42:14
Speaker 1: fumbles in their red zone. I mean, there are no
42:16
Speaker 1: systems to predict that. That's just that's it's football. That
42:21
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying. Like, the Chiefs had turnovers in
42:24
Speaker 1: the red zone, the Bills had turners in the red zone,
42:26
Speaker 1: the Niners had turners in the red zone. It was
42:28
Speaker 1: disorienting to say the least. Yeah, I mean it's my
42:33
Speaker 1: favorite thing. My favorite saying. Ever. You everyone has a
42:35
Speaker 1: plane until they get punched in the mouth, and that's
42:37
Speaker 1: just one of those classic things. It's like you have
42:39
Speaker 1: it all mapped out perfectly, and then they have a
42:41
Speaker 1: game to play, so that's all it goes. Bunny, you
42:44
Speaker 1: know what helse sucking me up? This weekend was normally
42:47
Speaker 1: my fifteen year old and I will watch all the
42:50
Speaker 1: games together on the couch downstairs in the living room.
42:56
Speaker 1: But this weekend, because the older kid is home after
42:58
Speaker 1: the surgery brought him home on Saturday, and like he's
43:01
Speaker 1: hobbling around on his crutches, he gets downstairs and somehow
43:06
Speaker 1: he ended up on the couch before anybody else. He
43:09
Speaker 1: fucking coming dared the TV. So my younger son and
43:13
Speaker 1: I were relegated to sort of the playroom area. And
43:18
Speaker 1: I think it funked up, Parmojo, because I wanted to
43:21
Speaker 1: blame you because I did. Uh. I wouldn't watch someone.
43:24
Speaker 1: I want to watch the game with someone on Sunday
43:25
Speaker 1: and I literally told them I'm never gonna watch a
43:27
Speaker 1: game with them ever again. Like I was, like, you
43:29
Speaker 1: are shunned. Whoever you watch the game with is a
43:33
Speaker 1: fucking cooler. Let's break it down on Thursday. On Thursday,
43:38
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about the Washington football team plus nine
43:40
Speaker 1: and a half. That's our Simon says, bet. We're gonna
43:43
Speaker 1: keep an eye on the Browns and the Pats, Pat's
43:46
Speaker 1: currently minus one. We're gonna keep an eye on the
43:48
Speaker 1: Jags and the Colts. Colts and minus ten and a half.
43:51
Speaker 1: We're gonna keep an eye on the Cowboys, who are
43:53
Speaker 1: currently minus nine against the Falcons. We love. We're going
43:56
Speaker 1: to the foxhole on the Saints plus three against the Titans.
43:59
Speaker 1: I might be able to convince you of the Jets
44:00
Speaker 1: plus thirteen against the Bills. We're also keeping our eyes
44:03
Speaker 1: open for Las Vegas plus two and a half against
44:06
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Niners plus four and a half. These lines
44:09
Speaker 1: are gonna move, folks. So if you like what we're
44:10
Speaker 1: saying now, you might want to take a little taste
44:13
Speaker 1: before Thursday, because on Thursday is when we will talk
44:16
Speaker 1: a little bit more about the market moves, injury updates,
44:19
Speaker 1: how what we've seen in the past four day hours,
44:21
Speaker 1: impacts are thinking heading into the weekend. I've named our
44:24
Speaker 1: foxhol I've named our Simon says, we have to do
44:27
Speaker 1: Scooch Roulette. Time to take down the hops. When all
44:33
Speaker 1: hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play
44:39
Speaker 1: Scots Roulette. Washington Football Team plus nine and a half.
44:48
Speaker 1: Baby whoo, No, I like that one till I thought
44:52
Speaker 1: you're gonna go with some favorite like I kind of
44:54
Speaker 1: want to go Cowboys, and just shocked the whole system
44:56
Speaker 1: of everyone that listens to this. But dr World, baby,
44:59
Speaker 1: Muhammad Ali, this you're gonna win. So I gotta go
45:02
Speaker 1: with what I think is the LAYMP. This week We'll
45:04
Speaker 1: go to the Saints plus three. It feels too good
45:06
Speaker 1: to be true already I've made a note. You were
45:10
Speaker 1: on the Saints for Scooch Roulette plus three. I'm on
45:12
Speaker 1: the Washington Football team plus nine and a half against
45:15
Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Saints are playing the Titans Thursday.
45:18
Speaker 1: We'll talk about the money line. Parlay will narrow down
45:21
Speaker 1: the field a little bit more, alright in Week nine.
45:23
Speaker 1: Week nine, this has been the favorites from the Volume
45:28
Speaker 1: podcast Network. I'me Chad Noman. He is Simon Hunter. We
45:32
Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday. Download from Spotify, from Apple Podcast,
45:36
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast. Until next time, I love you.