Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Winter Without CLARITY Bill📉Make or Break Week!🚨

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Crypto Winter Without CLARITY Bill📉Make or Break Week!🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We could be in for a crypto winter. Today we're
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: going to be breaking all that down for you. There's
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of news that is impacting the market. Let's
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: just get right into it. I do want to think
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• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Let's get into a lot of news today. A lot
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: is happening, especially around high stakes of where the market
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: is heading. One of the things you've got to look at,
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: of course, is the Market Structure Bill. Failure to pass
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: this crypto market Structure Bill would cap us valuations in
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: a big way, and this would end up with some
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: pretty big regulatory risk premiums. So think of it this way.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of crypto setting right now in a
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: bad position. The opportunity for that crypto is really hinged
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: on where the market structure is going. And remember there's
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: two bills that are going through Congress right now. And
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: if you look at polymarket, the Clarity Act signed into law,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: even though it is showing signs of growth, I think
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are a little bit confused because
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: this specifically is under Let me kind of go down
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: here of House Rep. Build thirty six thirty three. That
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: is the Clarity Act, not the Senate agg bill that's
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: coming through right now, which is mos likely going to
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: be the one that gets approved. So I don't know
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: if you're out there using poly market, but if you are,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: be aware of those kind of little nuances within it.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The good news is that it's likely that we could
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: get the AG bill through. The AG Bill is the
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: lighter touch of the two, and of course one of
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: the things that's holding it up is this winter storm
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: that we are in the middle of right now across
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: the United States. And if you look at the current
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: situation around government shutdown, this also could be impacted by
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: the winter storm. It has also risen and has been
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: holding right now around seventy nine percent, dropping a little bit.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: But right here, the Senate Ad Committee has now rescheduled
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the crypto Market Structure markup for ten thirty on Thursday.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: If everything comes out right, they can get back to DC.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: For those of traveling, this will be the date to watch,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: is ten thirty. If this thing goes through, this will
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: be a significant sign going forward. And right here you've
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: got Mike Saley, of course, the chairman of the CFTC,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: coming in that. They also push back their alignment meeting,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: which is the rescheduling the CFTC and the SEC harmonization event,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: which is also set up for Thursday after the markup time.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: So notice a two pm Eastern time. They're very big deal.
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: Now I want to go to a clip real quick,
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  Speaker 1: because this will get into some of the issues that
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: we are facing and is it worth it is really
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: what it boils down to. I think everybody's asking that
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: around yields.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: I put eighty percent waiting on yield on stable coins
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: as the big issue, maybe ninety the other two. No
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: matter as much, there'll be some kind of compromise. They
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  Speaker 3: have to provide competitive yield against this money center bank
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: or a regional bank. It's ridiculous. What's fair about that?
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: Where Why am I not getting that? And I can
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: get that on a stable coin. I can get three
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  Speaker 3: point five right now or lend it out with some
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: leverage and make seven. But if this bill passes that way,
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: that's totally unfair. I've let my voice know and I'm
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: going to watching you next week to make more noise
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  Speaker 3: about it. It's just unfair and that's un American. And
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  Speaker 3: that's why I'm going to look at does it pass
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  Speaker 3: perfore midterms?
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  Speaker 4: I think it.
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  Speaker 3: Has to give you my estimate May fifteen.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: All right, so even on Thursday, it doesn't mean that
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: that's when we get the bill. What happens is is
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: immediate steps after the markup, it goes to committee vote,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: it gets over to the Senate floor, then it has
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: to go to pre floor negotiations CENTI. Floor Action will
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: come back and debate it. Then that reconciliation comes in
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: from the House. That's what has to happen, and then
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: the final step, of course, goes through to make it law. Now,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the point being is that when that occurs, the likelihood
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: of DeFi exploding is going to be real. So be
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: watching the vaults. You can, of course take a look
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: right here. AVE is going to be a big part
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: of this lido of course, right there, all right, So
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip real quick. This
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  Speaker 1: is the general counselor of the VITA site we just showed,
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  Speaker 1: and they're explaining why this bill may not matter at all.
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  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: I'm very skeptical of an argument that allowing consumers to
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  Speaker 4: earn more of the value of their own money is
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  Speaker 4: going to lead to a collapse of the system of
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: credit in this country. For instance, if you look at
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: on chain lending protocols like AVE for instance, these have
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: grown significantly even just over the past year, and over time,
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: I think what you might see is that banks stop
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  Speaker 4: being the default lending source for all credit, and they
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: just become one source among many consumer options. Right, So
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: the real change won't be credit disappearing necessarily, It'll be
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  Speaker 4: credit that's funded and priced in a way that's more
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  Speaker 4: direct more to those who actually supply the capital. Regardless
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: of where this bill lands on this particular stable coin
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  Speaker 4: yield issue, it's not going to reverse that broader paradigm
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  Speaker 4: shift that we're seeing.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: And what she's talking about there really is the growth
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: of lending and crypto. Now, granted it is still a
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: very burgeoning market, growing market. If you look at the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: AVE data right now, you can see after the October
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: tenth event, but the liquidity that of course pushed out
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: of the market at that time. Still we've had significant
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: uptrends in AVE, which of course is one of the
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: de facto lending protocols out there for how this market
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: will work. And DeFi I'm in agreement with her in
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the sense that banks are not going to see this
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: exodus of capital. There's just too many people that don't
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: want to go through those hoops just yet. Yes, there
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: will be some, but I think this is going to
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: represent a bigger opportunity more so than a disadvantage. For
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: the banks, they just need to kind of come to
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: that realization, and maybe they already have. We'll see. Now
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: let's take a look at Ether, of course leading on
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: chain lending around twenty eight billion in active loans right now.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: If you look at just the growth right there on
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: that chart, absolutely skyrocket and this is very early. And
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: again remember these are bell curves before real adoption has
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: even taken place, so very small in terms of the
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: long term outlook here overall other things, just to look for,
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  Speaker 1: ETH is going after quantum resistance. They got their first
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  Speaker 1: funding ground. This is going to be a big deal
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  Speaker 1: to basically enact. And we've had justin on before talking
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  Speaker 1: about this and the issue of getting quantum resistance for eight.
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  Speaker 1: The reason that is important is because it starts to
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  Speaker 1: set ethereum up to compete very heavily with the other
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  Speaker 1: major tokens in the blue chip class. And that is
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  Speaker 1: important when you think about how fast AI is moving
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  Speaker 1: and how quickly quantum resistance is going to need to
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  Speaker 1: be done. If the status quo plays out, ETH will
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  Speaker 1: be the only quantum secure crypto asset and possibly flip
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin in one to two years. This is a very
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  Speaker 1: I don't think this is a too outlandish of a
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  Speaker 1: time zone. In fact, it could happen faster if we
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: start to see the acceleration which we have already started
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: to see with these faster chips. This is kind of
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: an interesting point right here, very possibility timeline where ETH
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  Speaker 1: becomes a quantum resistant before the centralized financial system. Think
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: about that for a second, that ETH becomes the de
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  Speaker 1: facto quantum resistant opportunity here when AI is coming up
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  Speaker 1: and banks are in the midst of shifting over an
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: entire financial system. Think about the attack vectors. That is
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: a big deal. This is good for ethereum. I think
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: when you really look at the bigger picture here. Other
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: things you have to look at, of course, is the
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: struggle that bitcoin is facing right now. Bitcoin mining, of
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: course facing the weather shock. One thing to consider here
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: is when you think about proof of work with bitcoin mining.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: This is a lot of the centralized I would call
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that almost Bitcoin valley coming through Tennessee, because there's a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: handful of big miners, including Riot out there in the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: middle of all this mess. So it does have an
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: effect because it starts to slow down the hash rate.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: You can see it falling directly right here. This is
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  Speaker 1: a problem because it is again a natural attack vector.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Here's the Bitcoin profit days. Notice these read up here, guys,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I'll zoom in on that this is periods in time
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  Speaker 1: that the miners are not making money. So just to
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  Speaker 1: consider where all of this is heading, everything's pointing to ETH, guys,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: back to clarity real quick. This, of course is the
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Blockchain Association hitting on the fact that we do need
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: to address the Section five O five tokenization token ice stocks.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Remember that Biko went out on an IPO just last week, right,
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: just a good example right here, Onto now available to
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: where you can even get Bicho over on Jupiter. This
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: is going to open up every stock available within these
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: kind of ecosystems. Nothing is going to slow this down.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: If you look at the growth right here, absolutely on fire.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: There's Slana. This is so small in comparison to what
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: the size of this market could be just in the
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: next few years. Ethereum dailor. Transaction of course is exploding.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: And remember, guys, we're kind of in a winter right now,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: but yet transactions going up on ETH. And if you
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: look at the cost right now, lowest it's been in
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: a very long time. ETH is cracking the code around
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: how this may come out into the perfect timing of clarity.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: What's happening on the technoology front, that's what is happening
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: within the financial ecosystem, all coming to a perfect winter storm. Here,
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: of course is World Liberty five. This go a little
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: bit further into this financial now World Liberty five is
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: now selling their bitcoin to buy eight Are they catching something?
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: If you look further into Arkham data, just follow the money.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: If you look at World Liberty five, they've got Ondo
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: sliding up in here. This is something we've talked about already.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: And then of course you further go further down into
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: this and of course you see what they're doing with
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: of course custody bitcoed lining up right there. Yes, that's
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: bit Oh, let me kind of zoom in on that
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: for you. And then of course you have this which
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: is the AVE connection. And this is where World Liberty
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: FI basically is using AVE and if you really look
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: at it, which is where their loans are going to
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: be done. This platform and project was submitted on the
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: AVE Governance forum. So basically this was an instance of
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: AFA going out for World Liberty five. Big connection here
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: when you look at the data here on this tweet.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: This is a good one because it shows Ave's overall flow.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: This is a trillion right now total loans originated. And
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: if you look right here, this is where we get
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: into institutional just beginning there on the horizon r Toba markets.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: So imagine when Clarity gets through, the opportunity for institutional
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: capital to start utilizing this for max yield extraction into
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: these markets. All right, So one other thing on AVE,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: the app is getting ready hopefully we'll get getting ready
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: to launch. This of course will make it much easier
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: to start lending for the average person, which of course
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: gets you into I think a chat GPT moment in
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: terms of adoption. A lot of opportunity here, for sure.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what Tom Lee is doing.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Bit Mine of course buys another forty thousand and eighth
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventeen million on the payday. This of
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: course puts a lot of pressure into Tom Lee because already,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: if you look at this, his portfolio is down four
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: billion dollars right now, So a big deal for Tom Lee.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: He is all in for sure, the most traded activity
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that we're seeing coming in from bitmind. Of course, you
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: can kind of see in good company right there, Salesforce
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: right above them. Interesting, there's a connection to that. I
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: want to play a clip for it to tie it together.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: So I tweeted that I wanted to make a Super
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Bowl commercial, and surprisingly, the CEO of Salesforce replied that
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: he was interested. So I got on a flight and
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: just showed up at their headquarters. Are you guys being
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: serious with the tweet? I can make the super Bowl commercial?
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: Well?
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Walk Well, can I do whatever I want with the commercial?
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: Legal?
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: It's to be legal for our products in it.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: And so I told him my plan and within thirty
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: seconds I already knew what they'd say. What do you
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: think of it? And all I'm going to say is
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: this super Bowl. If you see the commercial, you might
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: become a millionaire. This is going to be.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Epig capal millionaire. I like it giving away some money.
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: The super Bowl ad is coming from mister Beef. And
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: one other thing I want you to take a look at.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl is going to connect the dots here with polymarket.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Poly Market we already saw within the political arena. Imagine
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: where this is going to be going when it comes
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: to the biggest epicenter of sports, and that being the
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl. All right, when you look at this tweet,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: basically it's better spreads, better prices. This is of course,
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: is going to cost polymarket to boom. And if you
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: look at one other thing, that of course makes the
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: market a little bit unsettling. This is the issue of uncertainty.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: And you think about uncertainty. We are at the highest
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: point ever right here. World Trade Uncertainty Index also showing
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: massive uncertainty. Maybe there is a settling down, maybe we
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: have reached max peak or maybe not. So this uncertainty
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: really boils down to one thing right now, we think
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: that it's clarity. So this is the Bellweather moment for crypto.
• 13:50
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• 13:53
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• 13:56
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