Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / Elon Musk Wants 10,000 Starships Per Year

Transcript

Elon Musk Wants 10,000 Starships Per Year · Elon Musk Podcast

• 0:00
  On November 21st, 2025, at 4:00 in the morning, engineers at
• 0:04
  Starbase watched the first Block 3 Super Heavy booster tear
• 0:07
  itself apart. Booster 18 had been rolled to
• 0:10
  the test stand less than 24 hours earlier, was supposed to
• 0:13
  be the future of the program, the first vehicle of the new
• 0:15
  generation that would eventually carry humans to the moon, Mars.
• 0:18
  Instead, a composite over wrap pressure vessel failed during
• 0:21
  routine gas system testing, liquid oxygen tank ruptured, and
• 0:24
  the most advanced rocket SpaceX has ever built became scrap
• 0:27
  metal sitting at Massey's with a whole blown through its side.
• 0:31
  The booster was too structurally compromised to move safely.
• 0:33
  Crews had to cut it apart in its place. 26 days later, booster 19
• 0:38
  was fully stacked. That is the fastest any Super
• 0:41
  Heavy has ever been assembled. This is how SpaceX operates.
• 0:44
  They break things, they learn, and they build faster than
• 0:46
  anyone thought possible. Now the question heading into
• 0:48
  2026 is whether building fast is enough.
• 0:50
  The year started badly and got worse.
• 0:52
  Ship 33 burned up over the Turks and Caicos in January 2025 after
• 0:56
  a harmonic response shredded propellant lines in the F
• 1:00
  section. Ship 34 caught fire in March due
• 1:02
  to incorrectly torqued engine mount bolts.
• 1:05
  Ship 35 tumbled into an uncontrolled reentry in May
• 1:08
  after a methane tank in the forward Dome caused loss of
• 1:10
  attitude control. Then Ship 36 exploded on the
• 1:13
  test stand in June before it ever flew.
• 1:16
  The failure occurred during propellant loading for A6 engine
• 1:18
  static fire. Initial analysis pointed to a
• 1:20
  nitrogen COPV in the nose cone failing below its rate to
• 1:24
  pressure, triggering a chain reaction that ignited the rest
• 1:27
  of the vehicle. The explosion destroyed the
• 1:29
  interest structure, sex needed to prepare vehicles for Flight 4
• 1:32
  ships lost in six months. Now the Massey's static fire
• 1:35
  stand still is not fully operational, but flights 10 and
• 1:38
  11 both succeeded. The SpaceX closed the year
• 1:41
  having proven that Block 2 Starship works.
• 1:43
  Now they're tearing down everything they built and
• 1:45
  replacing it with something even bigger.
• 1:48
  Now the story of Starship in 2025 is not just about the test
• 1:51
  flights. It's about infrastructure.
• 1:53
  SpaceX is constructing what may be the largest rocket production
• 1:56
  and launch complex ever built, and they're doing it
• 1:58
  simultaneously in Texas and Florida.
• 2:01
  And at Starbay, crews demolished the original high Bay in the
• 2:03
  Stargate building to make room for a new structure called
• 2:06
  Gigabay. The current mega bays at
• 2:08
  Starbase can house a maximum of 6 workstations.
• 2:12
  Gigabay will house at least 24. As of the end of December, the
• 2:16
  structure is at 3 levels of steel columns, with at least two
• 2:19
  more to go before the A nearly identical Gigabay is rising at
• 2:22
  Roberts Rd. in Florida, and the two sites are racing to see
• 2:26
  which finishes first on January 4th.
• 2:28
  Elon Musk was asked about the production capacity of these
• 2:31
  facilities. He answered in a staggering way.
• 2:33
  He said SpaceX could eventually produce as many as 10,000
• 2:37
  Starships per year. Now, to put that number into
• 2:39
  perspective, Boeing produces about 40 to 5737 aircraft per
• 2:44
  month at peak. SpaceX is talking about building
• 2:48
  rockets larger than a 747 at a rate they would make them as
• 2:51
  common as commercial airliners. In May 2025, Musk had said 1000
• 2:55
  ships per year was the target. Seven months later he increased
• 2:59
  that number by an order of magnitude.
• 3:00
  He this goal for next year or even next five years.
• 3:03
  It's a statement about what SpaceX believe is physically
• 3:06
  possible once the infrastructure is in place and what they need
• 3:10
  to colonize Mars now. They're not just operational
• 3:13
  upgrades either, and these are necessary for the next Gen. of
• 3:16
  Starships. Block 4 Starship will use an 80m
• 3:19
  tall booster compared to the 71 meter boosters flying today.
• 3:22
  The current mega bays are not tall enough to build them.
• 3:25
  Until the Giga bays are complete, SpaceX cannot
• 3:27
  manufacture Block 4 Hard. The schedule for everything that
• 3:30
  follows, including crude lunar landings, depends on those
• 3:33
  buildings going up. Roberts Rd. will eventually
• 3:35
  house a full Star factory, making Florida capable of
• 3:38
  producing its own Starships rather than relying on vehicles
• 3:41
  shipped from Texas. Now I've been digging into the
• 3:45
  analytics of the show and noticed that 37% of you are
• 3:47
  following the channel and I love you.
• 3:50
  I'm forever grateful for that. The other 63% haven't hit the
• 3:53
  followers subscribe button yet and I've been an independent
• 3:55
  journalist covering Elon Musk, started at SpaceX, actually
• 3:59
  moved on to everything Space Flight, Elon Musk, Tesla and
• 4:02
  tech been doing it for the last six years and I'm going to
• 4:05
  continue for the next 10. But I need your help.
• 4:07
  I need one second of your time to hit the follow or subscribe
• 4:09
  button on the platform you're watching or listening on right
• 4:11
  now. I'm extremely grateful for you
• 4:13
  being here and a blessed to have you in this community.
• 4:15
  So thank you so much for that. Now this launch site build out
• 4:19
  is equally aggressive. Pad 2 at Starbase is nearly
• 4:21
  complete. The tower was fully stacked in
• 4:23
  2024. The launch mount was installed
• 4:26
  on May 11th, 2025. The side server structure, which
• 4:29
  houses all the cryogenic valves, high pressure lines, and
• 4:32
  electrical systems, is finished. It's a brand new design that
• 4:35
  will become the standard for all future Starship pads, including
• 4:38
  those in Florida. Pad 1, which supported all 11
• 4:40
  full stack flights and even served as an emergency ship
• 4:43
  static fire stand after this Massey's explosion was
• 4:46
  demolished after flight 11. It'll be rebuilt to match the
• 4:49
  new specifications though, and in Florida, LC39A has been
• 4:53
  substantial progress after sitting dormant for years
• 4:57
  following the tower installation 2020 U.
• 4:59
  Over the past, SpaceX built a large section of the tank farm,
• 5:02
  excavated and constructed the flame trench, and modified the
• 5:05
  chopsticks. There's still work to do, but
• 5:06
  SpaceX is targeting the second-half of 2026 for the
• 5:09
  first launch attempt from Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
• 5:12
  On December 1st, 2025, X received environmental approval
• 5:15
  to begin construction at SLC 37 at Cape Canaveral Space Force
• 5:19
  Station. The Record of Decision from the
• 5:21
  Department of the Air Force allows SpaceX to build 2 launch
• 5:24
  towers at the conduct up to 76 Starship launches at 152 Landing
• 5:28
  per year and perform static fire testing.
• 5:30
  Construction has already begun when all this is Fitness Basics
• 5:33
  will have 5 operational Starship pads to a star base, one at
• 5:36
  LC39A and two at SL37. No other rocket program in
• 5:41
  history has attempted to build launch infrastructure at this
• 5:44
  scale and at this speed. Now, getting vehicles from Texas
• 5:46
  to Florida will require a new logistics chain that is
• 5:49
  preparing to transport completed and tested Starships
• 5:52
  horizontally on a barge called Marmac 31.
• 5:55
  The barge was recently spotted delivering a liquid oxygen tank
• 5:58
  to the turning basin near LC39A. The plan is to ship fully
• 6:02
  integrated vehicles from Star Base to the Cape until Florida
• 6:05
  production comes online. And once the Gigabay at Roberts
• 6:08
  Rd. is operational and the Star factory is built, Florida will
• 6:11
  be able to produce its own Starships.
• 6:13
  And until then, everything ships from Texas.
• 6:15
  The flight test results tell a story of resilience under
• 6:19
  pressure, too. 3 consecutive ship failures in the first half
• 6:22
  of the year could have derailed any other program except for
• 6:25
  SpaceX. The explosion of Ship 36
• 6:28
  destroyed critical ground infrastructure and for SpaceX to
• 6:31
  improvise a new testing approach using the launch mount itself.
• 6:34
  Engineers designed and built an adapter that allowed chip 37 to
• 6:37
  be static fire to pad 1A system that was never intended for that
• 6:41
  purpose, and they modified the booster quick this connect to
• 6:43
  provide propellant to the ship using flexible hoses, and
• 6:47
  rewrote the software to handle a vehicle configuration the pad
• 6:50
  was never designed for. The fact that Flights 10 and 11
• 6:53
  both succeeded suggests that the engineering problems have been
• 6:56
  solved, at least for Block 2. Flight 10 on August 26th saw
• 6:59
  Ship 37 deploy Starlink simulators, relight a Raptor
• 7:02
  engine in space and survive reentry and land intact in the
• 7:05
  Indian Ocean. Flight 11 in October repeated
• 7:08
  that success. Both vehicles splashed down
• 7:10
  exactly where they were supposed to go.
• 7:11
  Now there were also his historic achievements.
• 7:14
  Flight 7 and 8 both resulted in successful booster catches,
• 7:17
  bringing the total to three. Flight 9 marked the first RE
• 7:20
  flight of a Super Heavy booster. Booster 14 two completed its
• 7:24
  mission using 29 reused Raptor engines, a critical milestone
• 7:27
  for usability even though the ship on that flight was lost.
• 7:31
  Flight 11 was the final launch of a Block 2 vehicle and the
• 7:34
  first launch from pad one in its original configuration. close a
• 7:37
  chapter that began in Flight 1 in April of 2023.
• 7:41
  Now Block 3 is supposed to open in 2026, but the loss of Booster
• 7:45
  18 has already forced a schedule adjustment.
• 7:47
  Ship 39 is fully stacked and waiting in Mega Bay 2 for the
• 7:50
  cryogenic proof station at Massey's to be ready.
• 7:52
  Recent observations showed that several composite overwrapped
• 7:56
  pressure vessels on Ship 39 have been swapped out, likely as a
• 7:59
  precaution after the failures had destroyed both Ship 36 and
• 8:02
  Booster 18. Block 3 is a near clean sheet
• 8:06
  redesign for the booster and significant upgrades for the
• 8:08
  ship including Raptor 3 engines and a three grid fin
• 8:11
  configuration. Instead of it is the vehicle
• 8:13
  that will eventually carry crew. A sources point to March is the
• 8:17
  most likely viable time frame for flight 12.
• 8:19
  First flight from the upgraded pad 2 now.
• 8:21
  The gap between ambition and execution has never been wider.
• 8:25
  Musk is talking about 10,000 Starships for a year, while
• 8:28
  SpaceX has yet to complete a single flight of Block 3.
• 8:31
  The Massey's test stand is still not fully operational after the
• 8:34
  36 explosion. Booster 18 was lost before it
• 8:37
  ever flew. LC39A is never launched.
• 8:39
  A Starship SLC 37 is a construction site.
• 8:42
  The company's building faster than anyone else.
• 8:44
  The building is not the same as flying.
• 8:46
  Flight 12 will be the first real test of whether 2026 can deliver
• 8:50
  on the premise of 2025. These foundations have been
• 8:54
  laid. Now SpaceX has to fly Block 3
• 8:58
  into orbit in order for us to get further to the Moon and
• 9:01
  eventually to Mars.