Latest / Toadstool Sports / Cubs/Blue Jays MLB + WNBA Best Bets Tuesday 8/12/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep.
- 0:02Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
- 0:07Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
- 0:09Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit.
- 0:11Speaker 2: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
- 0:14Speaker 2: Sunday one in five.
- 0:15Speaker 1: I don't even know what to tell you above that.
- 0:18Speaker 1: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
- 0:20Speaker 1: never seen anything like this.
- 0:22Speaker 2: Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a
- 0:27Speaker 2: good day at all.
- 0:27Speaker 1: Own four that have not had a good season.
- 0:32Speaker 2: Man with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the
- 0:36Speaker 2: slump continues.
- 0:38Speaker 1: I've reached into peak.
- 0:39Speaker 2: Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins hat Man, I don't
- 0:43Speaker 2: know what is going on with the Bruins arch hape?
- 0:47Speaker 1: Is that what it is?
- 0:47Speaker 2: I don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think
- 0:50Speaker 2: who even knows?
- 0:51Speaker 1: Man, I don't know what data is anymore. I don't
- 0:54Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
- 0:57Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could.
- 0:59Speaker 2: Possibly I'm back with you as I always am.
- 1:03Speaker 1: Until I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and
- 1:07Speaker 1: yesterday did not go well for me.
- 1:08Speaker 2: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
- 1:12Speaker 2: my eighteen years.
- 1:13Speaker 1: Doing this. I don't know what to even tell you
- 1:15Speaker 1: about this anymore.
- 1:16Speaker 2: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
- 1:21Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
- 1:24Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this
- 1:26Speaker 2: point other than potentially.
- 1:28Speaker 1: End it all.
- 1:33Speaker 2: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you for better
- 1:37Speaker 2: off Dead Tuesday, August twelfth, yesterday on the show one
- 1:43Speaker 2: to one.
- 1:44Speaker 1: Uh. The original play that I gave out was a loser.
- 1:47Speaker 1: The over in the Tigers White Sox not even close.
- 1:50Speaker 2: It was a two to one final, though Detroit had
- 1:53Speaker 2: eight hits in the game and only.
- 1:54Speaker 1: Scored two runs, so you could pretty much argue Detroit should.
- 1:57Speaker 2: Have scored more runs in that game. The White did
- 2:00Speaker 2: not really do anything offensively, but we could have at
- 2:03Speaker 2: least gotten close to it with Detroit scoring more than
- 2:07Speaker 2: more than they did. But obviously you kind of need
- 2:10Speaker 2: both teams to do something if you're gonna get the
- 2:12Speaker 2: over to a hit.
- 2:12Speaker 1: So that was a bad call by me.
- 2:14Speaker 2: But then the play that I added during the show,
- 2:18Speaker 2: that was almost going to be a play for me
- 2:20Speaker 2: at the start of the show.
- 2:21Speaker 1: Then I was like, yeah, let's make it a play.
- 2:22Speaker 1: That was an easy win.
- 2:23Speaker 2: Actually the under in Padres Giants, it was a four
- 2:26Speaker 2: to one final. The game was one to one I
- 2:28Speaker 2: think into the seventh inning and then I believe San
- 2:31Speaker 2: Diego scored three runs in one of those later innings,
- 2:34Speaker 2: but no more runs scored after that.
- 2:36Speaker 1: We have good boltpens there, so that was that was.
- 2:39Speaker 2: A hit, and we'll move on to today where I have
- 2:42Speaker 2: one play today in Major League Baseball. We do have
- 2:45Speaker 2: two WNBA games today, so I guess we'll do the
- 2:48Speaker 2: run down here. I mean need some music behind this man, right,
- 2:53Speaker 2: I don't know, I feel like it's a I don't know.
- 2:54Speaker 1: It feels a little bit empty without it WNBA.
- 2:58Speaker 2: I think we haven't had any dildo was thrown for
- 3:00Speaker 2: a few days now, so we'll see if it happens tonight.
- 3:03Speaker 2: We have Dallas at Indiana and Caitlyn Clark originally was
- 3:07Speaker 2: scheduled to maybe come back tonight, but that is still
- 3:09Speaker 2: not happening, so we still have no Caitlyn Clark here.
- 3:12Speaker 1: Indiana still is gonna be a big favorite here.
- 3:15Speaker 2: Dallas a struggling team here. Indiana just had a little
- 3:19Speaker 2: bit of a lost streak after a big win streak.
- 3:21Speaker 1: And then they broke.
- 3:22Speaker 2: The loss or you gonna win over the terrible Chicago
- 3:25Speaker 2: Sky without Angel Reee as well, Indiana just staying at home.
- 3:29Speaker 2: I mean, it's a decent spot for them. They got
- 3:31Speaker 2: a little bit of momentum after that win. Dallas on
- 3:34Speaker 2: a big losing streaky've lost.
- 3:36Speaker 1: Five games in a row. I mean, they're not a
- 3:38Speaker 1: good team. They are starting a road trip. They should
- 3:40Speaker 1: be focused.
- 3:41Speaker 2: Even though it's not Kaitlyn Clark here, you would expect
- 3:43Speaker 2: both teams probably show up in this game. Becker's has
- 3:47Speaker 2: also listed as a game time decision here for the Wings,
- 3:50Speaker 2: so we will see if she indeed plays in this
- 3:53Speaker 2: game or not. I'm leaning towards her playing, but the
- 3:56Speaker 2: line is pretty high. It's from six and a half
- 3:59Speaker 2: to eight and this point I don't even know if
- 4:01Speaker 2: that line is indicated that she's gonna play or not.
- 4:05Speaker 2: It's yeah, very difficult to gauge this game. There was
- 4:08Speaker 2: that line move on Indiana though, So I guess take
- 4:10Speaker 2: from all of that what you will. I mean, this
- 4:12Speaker 2: is not a game I would be putting my money
- 4:14Speaker 2: on Scott.
- 4:15Speaker 1: What's up man? Yeah, we're gonna be gay with today.
- 4:18Speaker 2: It's to gay and then we have New York at LA,
- 4:22Speaker 2: which is the original matchup. Man the og as, I
- 4:25Speaker 2: always point out, it's Rebecca Lobo.
- 4:27Speaker 1: And Lisa Leslie or whatever.
- 4:31Speaker 2: Liberty are obviously the way better of these two teams
- 4:33Speaker 2: right now, which is why they're the favorite on the road.
- 4:35Speaker 2: But they are coming off not only losing a wind streak,
- 4:37Speaker 2: but they lost a pretty big game to Minnesota's.
- 4:40Speaker 1: Minnesota has beaten them twice in a row.
- 4:42Speaker 2: Now Minnesota getting some revenge for last year's finals matchup,
- 4:46Speaker 2: and it could be this year's final matchup as well.
- 4:49Speaker 2: Liberty could be a little bit hungover from that. Now
- 4:51Speaker 2: they have to travel actually cross country after that. I
- 4:54Speaker 2: believe they've had some days off here travel, but they
- 4:56Speaker 2: are having to go to the West Coast and play
- 4:58Speaker 2: a late night game, which isn't it exactly the easiest spot.
- 5:01Speaker 2: And even though the Liberty are now tied in first
- 5:04Speaker 2: place in the East with Atlanta, so they are still
- 5:06Speaker 2: battling for that, LA I think kind of needs this
- 5:08Speaker 2: game more because they're on the version of missing the playoffs,
- 5:11Speaker 2: so they got a win. Man, They're in this cluster
- 5:13Speaker 2: here with them Seattle, Golden State, all within a game
- 5:16Speaker 2: of each other in Vegas is only like one and
- 5:19Speaker 2: a half games above Golden State, so these teams are
- 5:22Speaker 2: all in that mix there.
- 5:24Speaker 1: LA doesn't need to win. They're not traveling, they're staying
- 5:26Speaker 1: at home. They are coming off a win over.
- 5:28Speaker 2: Seattle, but I don't think they get into like a
- 5:30Speaker 2: letdown spot or anything like that, even though that was
- 5:32Speaker 2: a big win because the Liberty are the best team
- 5:35Speaker 2: in the East, so when they come into your place,
- 5:38Speaker 2: you're probably gonna be focused there. I would have a
- 5:40Speaker 2: slight lean to take in the points with LA and
- 5:42Speaker 2: this one New York is up from three to four.
- 5:44Speaker 2: It almost looks too easy to play the Liberty, the
- 5:46Speaker 2: team with the better record.
- 5:48Speaker 1: So those are my thoughts on those games.
- 5:51Speaker 2: LA is pretty bad at home, though they're not one
- 5:53Speaker 2: of those teams that's like way better at home than
- 5:54Speaker 2: on the road or whatever. They're actually below five hundred
- 5:57Speaker 2: at home, which is in the great side. But you
- 5:59Speaker 2: only need them to within a number and not actually
- 6:02Speaker 2: win a game outright. So I guess do with that
- 6:06Speaker 2: information what you will, man, Major League Baseball.
- 6:10Speaker 1: See, we can get this done quickly. Man.
- 6:13Speaker 2: We have a full Major League Baseball slate. After some
- 6:15Speaker 2: teams were off yesterday, which does mean that we have
- 6:18Speaker 2: some rested bultpens, including the first game up, which is
- 6:21Speaker 2: a little bit earlier.
- 6:22Speaker 1: In the evening.
- 6:22Speaker 2: I don't know why Baseball does this now they have
- 6:24Speaker 2: six thirty five six forty eastern and not every game
- 6:28Speaker 2: is right at seven seven oh five. I don't know, man,
- 6:31Speaker 2: just very very specific starting times now for all these games.
- 6:35Speaker 2: Don't know why this is eastern time because I am
- 6:37Speaker 2: on the East coast Seattle at Baltimore. Neither of these
- 6:40Speaker 2: teams played yesterday, so we do have rested bullpen soth.
- 6:43Speaker 1: Seattle has the better bullpen. Seattle also has the better offense.
- 6:47Speaker 2: They have more to play for as well, because Seattle
- 6:49Speaker 2: is in the playoff hunt right now. In the playoff mix,
- 6:52Speaker 2: Baltimore's staying at home most of the travel spot maybe
- 6:55Speaker 2: a little bit better for Baltimore Seattle having to travel
- 6:59Speaker 2: cross country. But a lot of times when you start
- 7:01Speaker 2: a road trip with momentum like this, that momentum can
- 7:05Speaker 2: continue and you might still focus on that first game
- 7:07Speaker 2: of the road trip. Seattle has won seven games in
- 7:10Speaker 2: a row, I believe is what that is. So Seattle
- 7:12Speaker 2: is hot right now. George Kirby pitching for Seattle. Pretty
- 7:15Speaker 2: good pitcher, four point zero four ERA one point one
- 7:18Speaker 2: to three whip. He is worse on the road the
- 7:21Speaker 2: way from the friendly, friendly confines of Seattle. Four point
- 7:25Speaker 2: nine friend lie friends, lie man. Then you should cut
- 7:29Speaker 2: them out a friends if they do that. Kirby four
- 7:32Speaker 2: point nine to six y r. On the road not
- 7:34Speaker 2: quite as good. He's pitching pretty well recently, though. He's
- 7:37Speaker 2: allowed only four earned runs combined across three straight starts
- 7:41Speaker 2: eighteen innings pitched. Over those starts. His team has won
- 7:44Speaker 2: six of his last seven starts. They've actually won nine
- 7:48Speaker 2: of his last ten starts, I think is what that is?
- 7:51Speaker 1: No.
- 7:51Speaker 2: Nine of his last eleven. My apologies, So he's definitely
- 7:54Speaker 2: pitching well. The team's doing well behind him. He hasn't
- 7:56Speaker 2: allowed more than four earned runs in any start going
- 7:58Speaker 2: all the way back to May. Pretty high strike cut
- 8:02Speaker 2: rate nine strikeouts and two of his last three outings
- 8:05Speaker 2: as well.
- 8:05Speaker 1: So yeah, he's pitching well right now.
- 8:08Speaker 2: Up against Baltimore was not a particularly threatening offense. He
- 8:12Speaker 2: has decent numbers against them as well, and sixty one
- 8:15Speaker 2: at bats fifteen k's no walks, two sixty two average
- 8:19Speaker 2: six eighty nine oh ps only one extra base hit,
- 8:22Speaker 2: a double from Gunner Henderson, who does actually hit him
- 8:24Speaker 2: well six for thirteen with one home run as well
- 8:27Speaker 2: and that double, but the rest of these guys don't
- 8:30Speaker 2: really hit him that well.
- 8:31Speaker 1: Decent matchup for Kirby here.
- 8:33Speaker 2: Dean Kreamer, pitching for Baltimore has actually started pitching better recently.
- 8:38Speaker 1: I've never thought he was that good.
- 8:40Speaker 2: Four point three to five ERA, one point two eight
- 8:42Speaker 2: whip on the season not terrible. He is much better
- 8:45Speaker 2: at home two point eight nine y r at home,
- 8:47Speaker 2: so the Splits do actually favorite Creamer in this game.
- 8:51Speaker 2: He did a lot of feign runs last time out,
- 8:52Speaker 2: but it was at Philadelphia that's a difficult offense to face.
- 8:56Speaker 2: Of course, had six strikeouts only one walk, so I
- 8:58Speaker 2: would say that wasn't really a bad start for him.
- 9:01Speaker 2: Over his last few starts, he's actually been decent with
- 9:04Speaker 2: a sixteen to five strike a walk ratio, though he
- 9:06Speaker 2: did allot five runs against the Rockies at home a
- 9:09Speaker 2: few starts to go, which is not a great sign
- 9:11Speaker 2: because the Rockies are terrible offense, especially on the road. Creamer,
- 9:15Speaker 2: I mean he's pitching mediocre at least right now though,
- 9:19Speaker 2: up against the Seattle Mariners, he hasn't been good though.
- 9:21Speaker 1: In seventy four at bats two.
- 9:23Speaker 2: Ninety seven average a lot nine to ninety nine ohps,
- 9:25Speaker 2: he's allowed seven home runs to them, including a.
- 9:29Speaker 1: Couple from Arosa Rain.
- 9:30Speaker 2: So I do think you have to give Kirby the
- 9:33Speaker 2: starting pitching edge in this one. So Seattle does have
- 9:36Speaker 2: the edge across the board here. I mean they got
- 9:38Speaker 2: the edge with the starting pitching matchup numbers. At least,
- 9:40Speaker 2: the situation seems like it's a little bit against them,
- 9:44Speaker 2: and so are the splits for the starting pitchers. But
- 9:46Speaker 2: everything else kind of points in the direction of Seattle.
- 9:49Speaker 2: You have to pay a price, though they're off minus
- 9:51Speaker 2: one thirty five to minus win sixty four, fifty eight
- 9:53Speaker 2: percent of tickets eighty three percent of the cash on them.
- 9:57Speaker 2: Given what this matchup looks like and whatever, I don't
- 9:59Speaker 2: think it's worth it laying that much of a price
- 10:01Speaker 2: with Seattle on the road there, so I would kind
- 10:04Speaker 2: of hesitate on that money's coming in on.
- 10:06Speaker 1: The under as well.
- 10:07Speaker 2: Fifty three percent tickets, ninety two percent of the cash
- 10:10Speaker 2: on the under, with the total dropping from nine juice
- 10:12Speaker 2: to the over to nine if.
- 10:14Speaker 1: You do like that.
- 10:15Speaker 2: I mean, there are some indicators that may tell you
- 10:18Speaker 2: that both starting pitchers might do okay, but then you
- 10:21Speaker 2: got to deal with Baltimore's bullpen not be very good
- 10:23Speaker 2: although they are rested. So a situation with two rested
- 10:27Speaker 2: bullpens that is helpful to an under but I don't
- 10:30Speaker 2: think I would want to risk it in this game
- 10:31Speaker 2: with too many factors that might throw a wrench into
- 10:34Speaker 2: that under Miami at Cleveland.
- 10:36Speaker 1: I believe these two teams are also off yesterday.
- 10:39Speaker 2: Cleveland is returning over from a road trip where they
- 10:41Speaker 2: went to New York to face the Mets and the
- 10:43Speaker 2: White Sox, and they actually had won five games in
- 10:46Speaker 2: a row and then they lost the last game against
- 10:48Speaker 2: the White Sox, which could hang them over a little bit.
- 10:51Speaker 2: When you're on a wind streak and you lose that
- 10:52Speaker 2: win streak, man, sometimes it hangs you over. In Miami
- 10:56Speaker 2: potentially not a team that's really going to pay a
- 10:58Speaker 2: whole lot of attention to on the return home spot,
- 11:00Speaker 2: And as I always say, the return home spot also
- 11:03Speaker 2: a bit of a distraction typically because you got to
- 11:05Speaker 2: get back to family life.
- 11:06Speaker 1: Whatever.
- 11:06Speaker 2: Cleveland I still think is not really as good as
- 11:08Speaker 2: this recent hot streak has made them look. Either, they
- 11:11Speaker 2: don't have a very good offense. They have the worst
- 11:13Speaker 2: of these two offenses. Cleveland does have the bullpen edge
- 11:16Speaker 2: in this game, but I don't think it's that significant.
- 11:19Speaker 2: But the situation doesn't look that great for them, even
- 11:21Speaker 2: though they didn't go that far. It wasn't that long
- 11:23Speaker 2: of a road trip, and the last part of the
- 11:25Speaker 2: road trip was in Chicago, so it's not really a
- 11:28Speaker 2: lot of travel there. At the end of the road trip,
- 11:31Speaker 2: Miami is coming in from Atlanta.
- 11:33Speaker 1: They're on a slide right now.
- 11:35Speaker 2: They actually had to play five games against Atlanta, and
- 11:37Speaker 2: they lost four of the five because there was a
- 11:39Speaker 2: makeup game added.
- 11:41Speaker 1: On to a four game series.
- 11:43Speaker 2: I believe in that one they're traveling up from Atlanta,
- 11:45Speaker 2: but they are already in travel mode. But Miami is
- 11:47Speaker 2: starting to sputter a little bit, which I said, I
- 11:49Speaker 2: thought it might happen because they're not as good as
- 11:51Speaker 2: the record looks either. Neither of these teams are as
- 11:53Speaker 2: good as the record makes them look. Jansen Junk is
- 11:57Speaker 2: pitching for the Marlins. Decent numbers on the year, three
- 12:00Speaker 2: point nine to seventy RA one point one to two whip.
- 12:03Speaker 2: He is better on the road as well, three point
- 12:05Speaker 2: four to seventy ra on the road. Last couple of starts.
- 12:08Speaker 2: I mean, he just doesn't get a lot of strikeouts.
- 12:10Speaker 2: He had six strikeouts, three walks, and ten innings two
- 12:13Speaker 2: five inning appearances against some pretty good offenses. He's faced
- 12:17Speaker 2: three pretty good offenses in a row. Milwaukee Yankees Houston
- 12:21Speaker 2: Yankees hit him. They got to him for six earned runs,
- 12:24Speaker 2: so though he actually didn't allow many base runners in
- 12:27Speaker 2: that one, so he kind of got a little bit unlucky.
- 12:29Speaker 1: Junk. Really, he hasn't been that bad for the most part.
- 12:33Speaker 1: It would say.
- 12:33Speaker 2: The Yankee the Marvelin's actually won all three of those
- 12:36Speaker 2: starts of his, which is kind of insane to think about. Hi,
- 12:39Speaker 2: they've won five of his last six starts and I
- 12:42Speaker 2: guess eight of his last ten starts or something like
- 12:44Speaker 2: that as well.
- 12:44Speaker 1: So Junk is pitching respectably at.
- 12:48Speaker 2: The very least up against Cleveland, who is a step
- 12:51Speaker 2: down offensively. They actually have never seen him before either,
- 12:54Speaker 2: so Junk might actually do okay in this game against
- 12:57Speaker 2: a fairly weak Cleveland lineup. He's going up against Logan
- 13:01Speaker 2: Allen for Cleveland three point nine to six ERA one
- 13:05Speaker 2: point three.
- 13:05Speaker 1: To seven whip. His whip is definitely too high.
- 13:07Speaker 2: He's slightly worse at home, with a four point six
- 13:10Speaker 2: homey ra last couple of starts, he only had three
- 13:14Speaker 2: runs over twelve innings combined, but he did walk four
- 13:17Speaker 2: guys in his last outing.
- 13:18Speaker 1: It was against the Mets.
- 13:19Speaker 2: They're a good lineup, but the walks have been somewhat
- 13:22Speaker 2: of an issue for him basically throughout his career, but
- 13:27Speaker 2: more recently he's actually been pitching better except for that
- 13:29Speaker 2: four walk performance there.
- 13:31Speaker 1: He actually didn't walk.
- 13:31Speaker 2: More any more than two in any start over the
- 13:34Speaker 2: prior month, so Alan he's doing okay at the very least.
- 13:38Speaker 2: He's up against the Marlins seem it's very mediocre offensively
- 13:41Speaker 2: and they haven't seen much from the Marlins actually only
- 13:43Speaker 2: have two hitters have faced him, and they're zero for five,
- 13:46Speaker 2: although with no strikeouts in one walk, Allan not necessarily
- 13:50Speaker 2: that much of a strikeout guy.
- 13:52Speaker 1: But with the unfamiliarity.
- 13:54Speaker 2: Aspect of this, I could see the early parts of
- 13:56Speaker 2: this game actually being low scoring with both pitchers being unfamiliar.
- 14:00Speaker 2: The money is coming in on the under after it
- 14:02Speaker 2: did go up a little bit from eight and a
- 14:03Speaker 2: half to nine, but the tickets seventy eight percent of
- 14:07Speaker 2: the cash on the under, I could see that being
- 14:10Speaker 2: the case. Man, the under first five innings might be
- 14:14Speaker 2: worth a look, although you do have.
- 14:15Speaker 1: Rested bullpens as well.
- 14:17Speaker 2: Although I don't necessarily trust the bullpens, they're both like mediocre,
- 14:21Speaker 2: So if you want to go with the rest of bullpens,
- 14:23Speaker 2: I mean, full game under, it still does kind of
- 14:26Speaker 2: make sense to me at first five under might be
- 14:28Speaker 2: a slightly better way to approach that, and then Cleveland
- 14:31Speaker 2: at minus one thirty on the money line, it's fifty
- 14:33Speaker 2: five percent of tickets, only fifty one percent of the cash,
- 14:35Speaker 2: so it looks like some of the money taking Miami
- 14:38Speaker 2: as a dog there as well, so I wouldn't.
- 14:40Speaker 1: Really disagree with that either.
- 14:41Speaker 2: I think I prefer junk over all, and to some
- 14:44Speaker 2: extent there could also go first five innings there if
- 14:47Speaker 2: you don't want to want to deal with the fact
- 14:48Speaker 2: that I think Cleveland's bullpen is probably somewhat better than Miami's.
- 14:52Speaker 1: Philadelphia at Cincinnati. These teams did.
- 14:54Speaker 2: Play each other yesterday, and Philly beat Cincinnati in the
- 14:58Speaker 2: series opener four to one. I still give Cincinnati a
- 15:01Speaker 2: slight bullpen edge because I don't think Philly's bullpen is
- 15:05Speaker 2: very good. Cincinnati used very little of their bullpen yesterday.
- 15:08Speaker 2: Philadelphia didn't use that much of their pen either, So
- 15:12Speaker 2: I'll give the edge to Cincinnati with the bullpen. I'll
- 15:14Speaker 2: give the offensive edge to Philadelphia here. Ron your Suarez
- 15:18Speaker 2: pitching for the Phillies here. Generally, I would say he
- 15:20Speaker 2: is the better of the two pitchers. Two point nine
- 15:23Speaker 2: four ERA, one point one five whip.
- 15:25Speaker 1: I keep thinking he.
- 15:26Speaker 2: Should like regress a little bit, which he did fall
- 15:29Speaker 2: into a little bit of regression, uh, because I think
- 15:32Speaker 2: if you look at his career numbers, he can't really
- 15:34Speaker 2: sustain numbers that are this good.
- 15:35Speaker 1: But he is still pitching well. He had a late
- 15:38Speaker 1: start to the season.
- 15:38Speaker 2: So at some point I am expecting some regression might
- 15:42Speaker 2: not happen here though, even though this is a pretty
- 15:44Speaker 2: hitter friendly park here, he does have a one point
- 15:46Speaker 2: four to eighty RA on the road, which is pretty good.
- 15:48Speaker 2: He's been significantly better on the road. He hasn't walked
- 15:52Speaker 2: anybody over two starts this month, although he allowed a
- 15:55Speaker 2: lot of runs in thirteen to thirty had eight strikeouts
- 15:58Speaker 2: which is a fairly low strikeout really eight earned runs,
- 16:01Speaker 2: no walks though, so his command was okay, but he
- 16:05Speaker 2: definitely got hit for some power five point four ERA
- 16:08Speaker 2: this month not exactly that great, so this regression might
- 16:10Speaker 2: be kind of in swing right now.
- 16:13Speaker 1: During the past month.
- 16:14Speaker 2: He actually did have some start so we walked too
- 16:15Speaker 2: many guys in July, so I don't know if he's
- 16:18Speaker 2: in exactly the greatest form right now. The last time
- 16:21Speaker 2: he did allow five earned runs against Baltimore, which is
- 16:23Speaker 2: not a great sign because they're not a good offense.
- 16:26Speaker 2: But against Cincinnati he does have really good numbers, though
- 16:29Speaker 2: fifty five at bats he only have one extra base
- 16:31Speaker 2: hit off him, a double from Hayes.
- 16:33Speaker 1: Fourteen to nine strike a walk ratio.
- 16:35Speaker 2: Isn't that good obviously, that's too many walks, but he
- 16:37Speaker 2: has held him too a one to eighty two average
- 16:40Speaker 2: four ninety seven ops, so Cincinnati has really not hit
- 16:43Speaker 2: him hard at all. Brady Singer's pitching for the Reds
- 16:47Speaker 2: definitely not having a great season here man four point
- 16:49Speaker 2: five to three ERA, one point three to five whip
- 16:53Speaker 2: in his first season with Cincinnati coming over from Kansas City,
- 16:56Speaker 2: but it hasn't been the fact that you would think
- 16:58Speaker 2: that it would be because Kansas City has a at
- 17:00Speaker 2: your friendly ballpark and the Reds don't, so you would
- 17:02Speaker 2: think that.
- 17:02Speaker 1: Would be why his numbers got way worse this year.
- 17:05Speaker 1: But that's not the case.
- 17:05Speaker 2: He's actually been good at home three point three six
- 17:08Speaker 2: era at home. Last outing was on the road at
- 17:11Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and it was pretty bad and I think I
- 17:13Speaker 2: had an under or no, I think I had the
- 17:15Speaker 2: Reds in that game if I'm not mistaken, and that
- 17:17Speaker 2: was just a.
- 17:18Speaker 1: Total shit show.
- 17:19Speaker 2: He walked four guys in the game, only struck out two,
- 17:22Speaker 2: didn't even last four innings allowed four and runs six
- 17:25Speaker 2: hits allowed. That was a bad, bad start against probably
- 17:28Speaker 2: the worst lineup in all of baseball.
- 17:30Speaker 1: So that's not a good sign for Singer.
- 17:32Speaker 2: The prior to starts he had an eighteen to two
- 17:34Speaker 2: strike up walk raceion only allowed one run combined, though,
- 17:37Speaker 2: So I don't know what's going on with Singer if
- 17:39Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh start was just a blip, or if that's
- 17:42Speaker 2: a really bad sign.
- 17:43Speaker 1: His numbers against Philadelphia is certainly not a good sign.
- 17:46Speaker 2: Fifty two at bats, they have hit him well, even
- 17:48Speaker 2: though his strike at walk ratio is better than Suarez
- 17:51Speaker 2: is in this matchup fifteen to four, but three twenty
- 17:54Speaker 2: seven average and nine to ninety ops allowed two Phillies.
- 17:59Speaker 1: That's not great. I mean, all that being said, they
- 18:02Speaker 1: could probably have to give Philly a little bit of
- 18:05Speaker 1: an edge here.
- 18:06Speaker 2: They're up from minus one forty five to minus one
- 18:08Speaker 2: forty seven, seventy four percent tickets, eighty four percent of
- 18:10Speaker 2: the cash.
- 18:10Speaker 1: Coming in on them, So money is coming in on
- 18:14Speaker 1: the Philadelphia side. It looks like it looks like it might.
- 18:17Speaker 2: Be public and professional money all on the Philadelphia side,
- 18:21Speaker 2: which is a little bit dangerous, especially when it's a
- 18:23Speaker 2: road favorite. I don't love those teams, although sometimes I
- 18:27Speaker 2: will recommend to play on them, won't do it here.
- 18:30Speaker 2: I don't like the Philadelphia bullpen. I don't like how
- 18:33Speaker 2: it sets up well enough to do it. But that's
- 18:35Speaker 2: what we're looking at there. And seventy eight percent of tickets,
- 18:38Speaker 2: only seventy one percent of the cash on the over
- 18:40Speaker 2: total's gone from nie juice to the under, the nie
- 18:43Speaker 2: juice to the over.
- 18:46Speaker 1: I don't know if I would really want to play
- 18:47Speaker 1: an over here.
- 18:48Speaker 2: Either, although both these offenses certainly could get the overdone.
- 18:51Speaker 2: I could potentially see both starting pitchers not doing great
- 18:55Speaker 2: in this game, so it's definitely a difficult game to predict.
- 18:59Speaker 1: Man Minnesota at the Yankees.
- 19:01Speaker 2: The Yankees did win yesterday, unfortunately because they had been
- 19:05Speaker 2: playing pretty poorly, then won six to two yesterday. Yankees bullpen,
- 19:10Speaker 2: even though it's not good, I give them a bullpen
- 19:11Speaker 2: edge over Minnesota. Minnesota's bullpen is not good, actually worse
- 19:16Speaker 2: than the Yankees bullpen is Yankees only used two relief pitchers.
- 19:19Speaker 2: Both teams actually only used two relief pitchers. Yes, say
- 19:21Speaker 2: Yankees have the better offense, they have the better bullpen,
- 19:24Speaker 2: and Minnesota has not even decided on a starter yet,
- 19:27Speaker 2: so we don't even know what's what Minnesota is gonna
- 19:29Speaker 2: do here unless it's listed here and now, which nope,
- 19:32Speaker 2: but is not.
- 19:32Speaker 1: It's still undecided.
- 19:34Speaker 2: Yankees are going with Carlos Redon, who does have good
- 19:37Speaker 2: numbers on the season three point three, five ERA, one
- 19:40Speaker 2: point one whip a little bit better at home as
- 19:43Speaker 2: well three ERA at home, but recently he has not
- 19:46Speaker 2: been good.
- 19:47Speaker 1: Three of his last four starts he's walked four or more.
- 19:51Speaker 1: That's bad.
- 19:52Speaker 2: He hasn't gone more than five and a third in
- 19:53Speaker 2: any of those starts, so basically he's been bad since
- 19:56Speaker 2: the All Star Break. It has not been good for him,
- 19:58Speaker 2: and he had some bad starts prior to the All
- 20:01Speaker 2: Star Game as well, so he's definitely not in good
- 20:04Speaker 2: form right now. Man giving up six earned runs and
- 20:06Speaker 2: nine to two thirds across his last two starts, nine
- 20:09Speaker 2: walks with twelve strikeouts. The strike ups are good, but
- 20:13Speaker 2: bad bad numbers otherwise. Man against Texas and Miami those
- 20:16Speaker 2: are not good offenses really either, So Redon is not
- 20:19Speaker 2: in good form right now. Though he does have pretty
- 20:21Speaker 2: good numbers against the Twins and thirty five at bats
- 20:24Speaker 2: eighteen to three strike up walk ratio two twenty nine
- 20:27Speaker 2: batting average are allowed in six eighty nine ops, so Redon
- 20:31Speaker 2: he has the match up here that could help him
- 20:33Speaker 2: bounce back here, but he's in such bad form I
- 20:36Speaker 2: really don't love it.
- 20:37Speaker 1: Yankees are gonna be a big favorite here.
- 20:39Speaker 2: ESPN looking like they're gonna have them at like more
- 20:42Speaker 2: than minus two hundred on the money line here. Minnesota
- 20:46Speaker 2: could be going with like some crap bulpe end game
- 20:48Speaker 2: here in their bullp and is so bad.
- 20:49Speaker 1: Redone not really a good form, so I.
- 20:52Speaker 2: Definitely can see arguments for an over in this game
- 20:56Speaker 2: might be the way that I would look, or if
- 20:57Speaker 2: you want to go Yankee team total over also be
- 21:00Speaker 2: a way to look in that game. Those would probably
- 21:02Speaker 2: be the ways that I would attack it. As you
- 21:04Speaker 2: can see in the title here, Cubs Toronto is gonna
- 21:06Speaker 2: be a game. I'm gonna get it out of play on.
- 21:07Speaker 2: It actually happens to be a pretty big game, and
- 21:10Speaker 2: I just happen to like the game, so I will
- 21:11Speaker 2: give that out at the end of the show in
- 21:13Speaker 2: the best Bets segment.
- 21:15Speaker 1: Atlanta at the Mets.
- 21:16Speaker 2: Normally this would be a big series, but Atlanta is
- 21:19Speaker 2: just They're just a dead team, man, And the Mets
- 21:21Speaker 2: are gonna have the motivation here because they're the team
- 21:23Speaker 2: and has something to play for here, Whereas I should
- 21:27Speaker 2: also point out the Yankees obviously have somebody to play from.
- 21:29Speaker 2: Minnesota does not. Philadelphia and Cincinnati both have somebody to
- 21:32Speaker 2: play for. Cleveland probably has more to play for the Miami.
- 21:36Speaker 2: I should go back to talk about the motivation there
- 21:38Speaker 2: because Cleveland actually not eliminated from playoff contention. Neither of
- 21:41Speaker 2: Cincinnati Philadelphia playing for playoff seating, Yankees playing for playoffs
- 21:47Speaker 2: as well. Minnesota is out of it and Atlanta New York. Now,
- 21:51Speaker 2: the Mets are obviously playing for playoff positioning as well.
- 21:54Speaker 2: Atlanta is definitely out of it. But the Mets have
- 21:56Speaker 2: been on a bad, bad slide.
- 21:58Speaker 1: Man.
- 21:58Speaker 2: They've lost six seven games in a row now and
- 22:01Speaker 2: they've lost whatever that is, eleven of twelve.
- 22:04Speaker 1: Mets are not playing good baseball right now.
- 22:06Speaker 2: They had a big lead in their last game against
- 22:08Speaker 2: Milwaukee and couldn't hold it lost that game as well.
- 22:12Speaker 1: They were returning home from a road trip, which was
- 22:14Speaker 1: only a road trip to Milwaukee.
- 22:16Speaker 2: Still, when you were turning over from a road trip,
- 22:18Speaker 2: maybe you get a little bit distracted. Usually you wouldn't
- 22:21Speaker 2: be distracted when it's a divisional foe like this, like Atlanta.
- 22:24Speaker 2: But the Mets might not take Atlanta that seriously. Atlanta
- 22:27Speaker 2: actually has some momentum right now. They actually just took
- 22:29Speaker 2: four out of five from Miami, including winning the last three.
- 22:33Speaker 2: Going out on the road to face the Mets, Atlanta
- 22:35Speaker 2: might want a piece of the Mets, man, because Atlanta
- 22:38Speaker 2: knows they have a chance to spoil the Mets season
- 22:40Speaker 2: a little bit here. Atlanta probably will show up and
- 22:42Speaker 2: they have the momentum here. When you leave home with
- 22:45Speaker 2: the momentum, you go out on the road. A lot
- 22:46Speaker 2: of times it is a focused spot. So I think
- 22:48Speaker 2: the situation is better for the Braves here. Neither team
- 22:53Speaker 2: played well, Yeah, neither team played yesterday? Right, Yeah, I
- 22:55Speaker 2: don't think so. Right, So both bullpens arrested here. As
- 22:59Speaker 2: far as which bullpen is better, Atlanta's actually fifth and
- 23:03Speaker 2: bulpen whip, but their bullpen ERA is way worse.
- 23:07Speaker 1: The Mets bullpen, it's kind of fallen down.
- 23:09Speaker 2: They're seventeenth in whip, but their bullpen eray is better
- 23:12Speaker 2: than Atlanta. So it's like pick your poison, like, which
- 23:15Speaker 2: of those bullpens you actually think is better? Difficult to
- 23:18Speaker 2: gauge at this point, man, A bullpen situation actually.
- 23:21Speaker 1: Kind of a wash between these two teams.
- 23:23Speaker 2: I'll give the Mets the offensive edge obviously, but starting
- 23:26Speaker 2: pitching on the surface, I prefer Strider over home Spencer Strider.
- 23:31Speaker 1: For the Braves.
- 23:32Speaker 2: His numbers don't look that good though, four point oh
- 23:34Speaker 2: four ERA one point three whip. He's doing worse on
- 23:37Speaker 2: the road to four point four to two RA. Some
- 23:40Speaker 2: of it may be skewed by his last starting pretty
- 23:43Speaker 2: bad against Milwaukee, but we know Milwaukee is definitely a
- 23:46Speaker 2: team that can hit. But they hit him pretty well.
- 23:48Speaker 2: He gave up eleven hits, five and runs in four
- 23:51Speaker 2: and two thirds. Did have a pretty good six to
- 23:53Speaker 2: one strike at walk ratio, but he got hit hard man.
- 23:56Speaker 2: But prior to that, Strider was actually pitching really well
- 23:58Speaker 2: for the most part, even though he was walking too
- 24:00Speaker 2: many guys. He gave up three or four earned runs
- 24:03Speaker 2: in every start going all the way back to the
- 24:04Speaker 2: beginning of June, so.
- 24:07Speaker 1: He was pitching pretty well with a high strikeout rate.
- 24:10Speaker 1: Just his walk rate was too high.
- 24:11Speaker 2: But that's basically what you get out of Stryder up
- 24:14Speaker 2: against the Mets. In his career, Stryder has been mediocre
- 24:19Speaker 2: and one hundred and twenty nine at bats, so they are
- 24:21Speaker 2: familiar with him. Forty one strikeouts, eighteen walks. Again, too
- 24:24Speaker 2: many walks, but kind of part for the course with
- 24:26Speaker 2: Stryder two sixty four average allowed seven ninety six ops
- 24:30Speaker 2: because they do have some extra base hits against them,
- 24:32Speaker 2: they got some home runs off him. Nimo is nine
- 24:35Speaker 2: for twenty two with a couple home runs and three
- 24:37Speaker 2: walks off him, so again, player props I always recommend
- 24:40Speaker 2: hits plus runs pus RNBI, so if you want to
- 24:42Speaker 2: do that, you could look towards him. So Strider only
- 24:44Speaker 2: has mediocre numbers there against the Mets. Clay Holmes is
- 24:47Speaker 2: pitching for the Mets, He's got the better er, although
- 24:50Speaker 2: I don't really trust Clay Holmes necessarily. Either depends on
- 24:54Speaker 2: the spot man three point four to sixty R one
- 24:56Speaker 2: point three whip.
- 24:57Speaker 1: Though he's one of those guys who keeps his era
- 25:01Speaker 1: surprisingly low, and though his whip indicates that his era
- 25:04Speaker 1: should be higher than it is. He's been pretty much
- 25:06Speaker 1: the same home and away. It doesn't really matter.
- 25:08Speaker 2: Last start was pretty good against Cleveland Tour and runs
- 25:11Speaker 2: a lot of five innings, six strikeouts.
- 25:13Speaker 1: One walk.
- 25:14Speaker 2: He's been a little bit shaky though over the past
- 25:17Speaker 2: month or so. In July he had a four point
- 25:19Speaker 2: nine to one R and sixteen to eleven strikeout walk ratio,
- 25:22Speaker 2: which was not very good.
- 25:24Speaker 1: And he had a.
- 25:25Speaker 2: Bunch of walks in his last two starts in June
- 25:28Speaker 2: as well, and it happened that both of those starts
- 25:30Speaker 2: were against Atlanta, so he actually didn't pitch well against
- 25:32Speaker 2: Atlanta at all. I believe ten walks and nine to
- 25:36Speaker 2: two thirds innings in those outings, that's not good. Homes
- 25:39Speaker 2: up against Atlanta, his numbers are okay in thirty five
- 25:43Speaker 2: at bats, despite those two starts not being good. Nine
- 25:46Speaker 2: walks to seven strikeouts, that's certainly not good. But he
- 25:48Speaker 2: has held to a two twenty nine average somehow and
- 25:51Speaker 2: a seven fifty eight ops a little bit high. I
- 25:56Speaker 2: could see this game potentially actually going over. It looks
- 26:00Speaker 2: like both of these starting pitchers should be good. We
- 26:02Speaker 2: have sixty one percent tickets eighty two percent of the
- 26:04Speaker 2: cash on the under, but I would not want to
- 26:06Speaker 2: do that. I think it might be a little bit
- 26:08Speaker 2: of misleading starting pitching match here. The total did go
- 26:11Speaker 2: up a little bit from eight to eight and a half,
- 26:14Speaker 2: even though it looks like the money is now coming
- 26:15Speaker 2: in on the under. I could see first five over,
- 26:18Speaker 2: especially because if you don't want to factor in the bullpens, uh,
- 26:22Speaker 2: because the bullpens are at least rested here, starting pitching
- 26:25Speaker 2: could potentially give it up here. The money's coming in
- 26:27Speaker 2: on the Mets as well. Off for minus one thirty
- 26:29Speaker 2: to minus one thirty seven, fifty six percent tickets, seventy
- 26:32Speaker 2: five percent of the cash coming in other mets. If
- 26:34Speaker 2: you do that, I would include the full game here
- 26:36Speaker 2: because you want their offense to be able to get
- 26:38Speaker 2: all there at bats. You probably want the somewhat the
- 26:41Speaker 2: slight bullpen edge that they might have, I guess because
- 26:44Speaker 2: they do think Atlanta still is the better of the
- 26:46Speaker 2: two starters. In my opinion, I think Strider has the
- 26:48Speaker 2: better stuff, but that might just be me being old school.
- 26:52Speaker 2: So that's a difficult game to gauge. Detroit at the
- 26:55Speaker 2: White Sox probably pretty difficult to gauge as well. Of course,
- 26:58Speaker 2: Detroit got the win yesterday to one. Detroit used three
- 27:02Speaker 2: relief pitchers, but they still have the bullpen a I mean,
- 27:04Speaker 2: Chicago basically went with a bullpen game yesterday. They used
- 27:07Speaker 2: five relief pitchers, and they have the worst of the
- 27:10Speaker 2: two bullpens anyway, and they haven't decided on a starting
- 27:13Speaker 2: pitcher today either, so the White Sox might be going
- 27:16Speaker 2: with another bullpen game, which really could be a disaster
- 27:19Speaker 2: for the White Sox. Here doesn't look good for the
- 27:22Speaker 2: White Sox. Jack Flaherty will be pitching for Detroit.
- 27:25Speaker 1: Of course. Detroit does at least have a little.
- 27:27Speaker 2: Bit more to play for because they are battling for
- 27:29Speaker 2: playoff contention here at least, although the White Socks, you
- 27:32Speaker 2: could argue, will show up because they just I mean,
- 27:35Speaker 2: it's a big divisional matchup for them at home, so
- 27:37Speaker 2: they probably want to show.
- 27:38Speaker 1: Up for their fans at the very least.
- 27:40Speaker 2: So I don't think either team is really necessarily gonna,
- 27:43Speaker 2: like not show up for these games. You could argue
- 27:45Speaker 2: Detroit will take Chicago a little bit lightly too, so situationally,
- 27:49Speaker 2: I don't think it's a huge edge one way or
- 27:50Speaker 2: the other. Jack Flaherty is pitching four Detroit here. Not
- 27:54Speaker 2: good numbers on the season, four point five to six ERA,
- 27:57Speaker 2: one point two eight whip.
- 27:58Speaker 1: He's in quite bad out on the road. Five point
- 28:01Speaker 1: six' nine Rody.
- 28:02Speaker 2: Ra his last start was pretty ugly against a pretty
- 28:05Speaker 2: Weak minnesota line and he give up five and runs
- 28:08Speaker 2: in four and two, thirds not a good. Sign he'd
- 28:10Speaker 2: pitched pretty well on the prior couple of, starts going
- 28:13Speaker 2: six innings in each along one total run of this
- 28:16Speaker 2: prior to start so and Against philly And toronto those
- 28:19Speaker 2: are decent offenses, too so he was in a good,
- 28:22Speaker 2: stretch but now he might kind of be sliding. Again
- 28:24Speaker 2: so it's difficult to gauge what we're gonna get From flarerty.
- 28:26Speaker 2: Here his numbers are good against The White, sox though
- 28:30Speaker 2: it's a very Bad White sox. Lineup, Obviously detroit has
- 28:32Speaker 2: the better offense. Here floherty in forty nine at bats
- 28:35Speaker 2: fourteen to two strike a walk ratio against The White
- 28:38Speaker 2: sox one sixty three average and four to twenty one oh.
- 28:40Speaker 2: Ps SO i do Think flaherting does at least match
- 28:43Speaker 2: up well. Here you're gonna be looking At detroit being
- 28:45Speaker 2: a big favorite in this, game, Though SO i.
- 28:49Speaker 1: Mean i'd probably leave the game.
- 28:50Speaker 2: ALONE i, mean if you want to Go detroit run
- 28:52Speaker 2: line on this, GAME i GUESS i could see an
- 28:54Speaker 2: argument for, it but you're definitely paying a bit of
- 28:56Speaker 2: a price For detroit. There pittsburgh At Milwaukee, milwaukee even
- 29:01Speaker 2: THOUGH i thought they were a little bit of a letdown,
- 29:03Speaker 2: spot they continued their hot. Streak, man they've won a
- 29:06Speaker 2: bunch of games in a. Row, now how many games
- 29:07Speaker 2: do they won in a?
- 29:08Speaker 1: Row? Now? Ten maybe?
- 29:09Speaker 2: Eleven whatever this is it probably says, here looks like
- 29:14Speaker 2: it might be.
- 29:15Speaker 1: TEN i don't know what it. Is it could be.
- 29:16Speaker 2: Eleven whatever it, is they Beat pittsburgh yesterday seven to,
- 29:20Speaker 2: one WHICH i Thought pittsburgh might show up in that
- 29:23Speaker 2: game a little bit Because pittsburgh probably at the very
- 29:25Speaker 2: least they want to try to show up against the
- 29:28Speaker 2: best team in their, division, Right So pittsburgh kind of
- 29:31Speaker 2: playing for a little bit of pride a little bit,
- 29:34Speaker 2: there and you, know going up against a team that
- 29:36Speaker 2: actually will draw their Focus milwaukee at this. Point milwaukee
- 29:40Speaker 2: probably has a slightly better bullpen Over, pittsburgh and they
- 29:43Speaker 2: were pretty rested. Yesterday pittsburgh didn't used that much of
- 29:46Speaker 2: their bullpen, Either But i'm gonna Give milwaukee a slight
- 29:48Speaker 2: bullpen edge.
- 29:49Speaker 1: Here milwaukee has the better offense pretty.
- 29:52Speaker 2: Significantly we know That pittsburgh probably has the better of
- 29:55Speaker 2: these two starters on the, mound, though so it's not
- 29:57Speaker 2: all in favor of On milwaukee in This on the,
- 30:00Speaker 2: service this looks like a very good pitching matchup Between
- 30:03Speaker 2: Paul skeens And Freddy. Peralta it looks like pretty much
- 30:06Speaker 2: ace versus ace for the most part of THE i
- 30:08Speaker 2: don't Know Peraltas milwaukee's ace anymore now that they have
- 30:11Speaker 2: all these other starters rejoining the rotation and joining the, rotation.
- 30:17Speaker 1: But, ANYWAY i Find milwaukee could.
- 30:18Speaker 2: Be in a little bit of a letdown spot it
- 30:20Speaker 2: for sweeping The, mets where they blew Out pittsburgh. Yesterday
- 30:23Speaker 2: skeens is on the mound For pittsburgh, here but the
- 30:26Speaker 2: limiting his innings a little bit here because they don't
- 30:28Speaker 2: want to burn them out because of course it's a lost,
- 30:30Speaker 2: season so why would you get your you, know your
- 30:33Speaker 2: starting pitcher. Injured you don't want to do that, obviously
- 30:36Speaker 2: but they're letting him go out there five six innings
- 30:38Speaker 2: a game pretty. Much he's got a one point nine
- 30:41Speaker 2: to FOUR era and point nine to THREE whip on the.
- 30:43Speaker 1: Season we know he's.
- 30:44Speaker 2: Elite he's slightly worse on the. Road two point one
- 30:47Speaker 2: point FIVE era is still really. Good last two starts
- 30:50Speaker 2: sixteen strikeouts and two walks and eleven. Innings skeens is
- 30:55Speaker 2: still scheen, saying and all four runs he allowed over
- 30:58Speaker 2: his last five, Starts he's allowed four runs and they
- 31:00Speaker 2: were all in a single game At Course. Field so
- 31:03Speaker 2: his last three, starts excusing his one was An All
- 31:05Speaker 2: Star game, performance but he actually had two shutouts starts
- 31:09Speaker 2: prior to the last start before The All Star game
- 31:11Speaker 2: two so five of his last. Six five of his
- 31:15Speaker 2: last seven starts have actually been, shutouts which is just, crazy,
- 31:19Speaker 2: Man and we get.
- 31:20Speaker 1: It he's. Dominant we know.
- 31:21Speaker 2: This he's facing a really Good milwaukee, lineup but he's
- 31:24Speaker 2: been really good against them.
- 31:25Speaker 1: Too and forty six at, bats five.
- 31:27Speaker 2: Hits no extra base, hits eighteen, strikeouts two, walks one
- 31:31Speaker 2: oh nine batting average allowed.
- 31:33Speaker 1: Two seventy two.
- 31:33Speaker 2: Ops skeens has done well Against, milwaukee SO i might
- 31:38Speaker 2: give him the matchup edge here Because Freddy baralta as
- 31:40Speaker 2: good as he is three point zero THREE, era one
- 31:43Speaker 2: point one for, whip that's good. Stuff he's actually really
- 31:46Speaker 2: good at home to two point one THREE. Era he's
- 31:50Speaker 2: a little bit iffier Than Paul, skeens THOUGH i Mean Paul. Skeen,
- 31:53Speaker 2: well we Know Paul skeen's is one of the absolute
- 31:55Speaker 2: best pitchers in. Baseball Freddy barralt over his last couple
- 31:58Speaker 2: of starts hasn't exactly been that.
- 32:00Speaker 1: Great.
- 32:00Speaker 2: Really he's walked three or more on three of his
- 32:03Speaker 2: last four. Starts last two starts he walked three or.
- 32:06Speaker 2: More he failed to make it five innings against The
- 32:08Speaker 2: cobs along five and runs and that one in four.
- 32:11Speaker 2: Walks last starting Against, atlanta walked, three although he held
- 32:15Speaker 2: them in a oneer and run at five, innings which
- 32:16Speaker 2: is pretty. Good seven strikeouts is pretty, good but last
- 32:19Speaker 2: two starts at ten to seven strike out walk, ratio
- 32:22Speaker 2: it's looking a little bit questionable For, paralta even though
- 32:24Speaker 2: he was on a nice run for a while WHERE
- 32:28Speaker 2: i mean even Still milwaukee's won eight of his last
- 32:31Speaker 2: ten starts or something like, that but last couple of
- 32:34Speaker 2: starts have been a little bit, worse and Against pittsburgh
- 32:36Speaker 2: his numbers are actually not totally.
- 32:38Speaker 1: Dominant in one hundred and twenty eight.
- 32:39Speaker 2: At, bats he has a forty three to thirteen strike
- 32:41Speaker 2: out walk ratio two fifty eight average is pretty, low
- 32:44Speaker 2: but seven to seventy nine ohps getting slightly higher because
- 32:48Speaker 2: he has a lot of five home runs to five
- 32:50Speaker 2: different hitters Against. Pittsburgh as bad As pittsburgh's lineup, Is
- 32:54Speaker 2: paralta dom pretty well against, them so the money is
- 32:57Speaker 2: coming in On. PITTSBURGH i agree with, that but if
- 32:59Speaker 2: you want to go With, Pittsburgh i'd probably limit it
- 33:01Speaker 2: to just When skeens is in, There So i'd probably
- 33:03Speaker 2: go first five, innings WHERE i Think pittsburgh has the
- 33:06Speaker 2: biggest edge On milwaukee down for just one thirty one twenty,
- 33:09Speaker 2: seven seventy two percent taket sixty five percent of the
- 33:12Speaker 2: cash on. Them so the money is Fading milwaukee, here and,
- 33:15Speaker 2: YES i agree with. It in the first five innings
- 33:17Speaker 2: at the very, least money is also coming in on the,
- 33:19Speaker 2: under flipping it to, seven so heavily juiced to the
- 33:22Speaker 2: under that we're now looking at a six and a.
- 33:24Speaker 2: Half and you know, Me i'm never gonna recommend an
- 33:26Speaker 2: under six and a half man sixty eight percent of,
- 33:29Speaker 2: tickets seventy five percent of cash conman on the. UNDER
- 33:31Speaker 2: i don't really dislike either of these bullpens, really SO
- 33:35Speaker 2: i don't mind keeping the bullpens in the equation for an,
- 33:37Speaker 2: under BUT i JUST i don't love it, man with
- 33:40Speaker 2: this price being so.
- 33:41Speaker 1: Low, Here.
- 33:44Speaker 2: Freddy, BARRALT i think is a little bit questionable here
- 33:46Speaker 2: as far as though what he might do in this.
- 33:48Speaker 2: GAME i might go Under milwaukee's team total, actually WHICH
- 33:52Speaker 2: i know that seems really, dangerous but they're gonna have
- 33:55Speaker 2: the higher team total of the two teams because they
- 33:57Speaker 2: are the favorite and they're up Against paul's. Skeins or
- 34:00Speaker 2: you could do, like look to a different market completely
- 34:03Speaker 2: and Do Paul, skins whatever his earned run total is
- 34:07Speaker 2: that he's gonna allow while he's in the, game go under,
- 34:10Speaker 2: that which probably means he's gonna have to Hold milwaukee
- 34:13Speaker 2: to wander fewer earn. Runs AND i know that's really
- 34:15Speaker 2: really dangerous because basically a single hit when there's anybody
- 34:18Speaker 2: on base could completely end your. Bet but that might
- 34:22Speaker 2: be a way to look at this game. Schemes whatever
- 34:25Speaker 2: the urn run line is on him allowing fewer earned
- 34:28Speaker 2: runs and then at least unearned runs won't count against
- 34:30Speaker 2: you either in that. Situation washington At Kansas, city these
- 34:34Speaker 2: two teams did play. Yesterday Milwaukee, Pittsburgh oh also played, yesterday,
- 34:40Speaker 2: RIGHT i did mention, That, Yeah So Kansas City washington
- 34:42Speaker 2: also played. Yesterday Kansas city won seven of, four WHICH
- 34:45Speaker 2: i thought that was a decent situation For. Washington Man,
- 34:50Speaker 2: WASHINGTON i told you first five innings was the way
- 34:53Speaker 2: to go On, washington and that did actually pan. Out
- 34:55Speaker 2: washington had the lead in the first five and.
- 34:57Speaker 1: Then their bullpen blew the.
- 34:58Speaker 2: Game so that was exactly wrecked my way of my
- 35:02Speaker 2: way of approaching that game. Yesterday Kansas, city they have
- 35:05Speaker 2: the better bullpen, Here washington has the better, offense and
- 35:08Speaker 2: they're actually a somewhat decent offense on the.
- 35:10Speaker 1: Road Kansas city used four relief pitchers.
- 35:13Speaker 2: Yesterday washington also used, four got to give the bullpen
- 35:16Speaker 2: edge TO. Kc washington's bullpen is. Bad Kansas city also
- 35:20Speaker 2: has the better starter on the mount. Today Mitchell parker For,
- 35:23Speaker 2: washington he's not. Good five point four to THREE, era
- 35:26Speaker 2: one point four to EIGHT, whip six point one E.
- 35:29Speaker 2: R on the, Road he's been bad on the road this.
- 35:32Speaker 2: Month in two, starts he has a TWELVE era and
- 35:36Speaker 2: seven to four strike a walk. Ratio so he is
- 35:38Speaker 2: in bad, forum even THOUGH i know it was Against
- 35:40Speaker 2: milwaukee in The. A's those are way better lineups than The.
- 35:43Speaker 2: Royals his numbers against The royals are, okay and fourteen
- 35:46Speaker 2: at bats is a small sample. Size he hasn't allowed
- 35:48Speaker 2: any extra base, hits four to three strike a walk
- 35:51Speaker 2: raceho not great. Too eighty six batting average is not,
- 35:54Speaker 2: great but six ninety seven. Ops So parker does.
- 35:56Speaker 1: At least do okay Against Kansas.
- 35:59Speaker 2: City they might be will be a little bit of
- 36:01Speaker 2: a reprieve for him because they're a really bad, offense
- 36:04Speaker 2: BUT i don't Trust parker at.
- 36:06Speaker 1: All.
- 36:06Speaker 2: Man he's going up Against Michael, walker who is having
- 36:10Speaker 2: a good season for The royals three point three SIX,
- 36:12Speaker 2: era one point one to five. Whip he's in really
- 36:15Speaker 2: good at home two point six y three e alright at.
- 36:18Speaker 1: Home his team has.
- 36:19Speaker 2: Won three starts in a row and he's actually not
- 36:21Speaker 2: allowed more than two on runs and five starts in
- 36:23Speaker 2: a row this. Month he hasn't walked, anybody so he
- 36:26Speaker 2: has not been a. Walker he's not really a strikeout,
- 36:29Speaker 2: guy but sometimes he walks too many. Guys but over
- 36:32Speaker 2: the course of two starts this, month fourteen innings only
- 36:35Speaker 2: allowing three on, runs eight, hits no, walks eight. Strikeouts
- 36:38Speaker 2: so he's in good form right, Now, Man and those
- 36:41Speaker 2: starts are Against toronto And, boston both on the, road
- 36:44Speaker 2: so not easy assignments for, him and he still did.
- 36:47Speaker 2: Well his numbers Against washington are a little bit all
- 36:49Speaker 2: over the, place a little bit all over the place
- 36:51Speaker 2: and forty six at, bats eight to four strike a
- 36:54Speaker 2: walk race here two sixty one batting average allowed but
- 36:57Speaker 2: seven ninety eight ops, allowed so THE ops is a
- 37:00Speaker 2: little bit high because he has a lot of three
- 37:01Speaker 2: home runs although two of them Are Josh, bell who
- 37:04Speaker 2: is a good power hitter For washington. There so what
- 37:08Speaker 2: are we looking at here as far as the market is,
- 37:10Speaker 2: concerned because you, think, well If Kansas city has the
- 37:12Speaker 2: pitching edge across the, board you probably want to look that, way, right,
- 37:15Speaker 2: maybe but the price is really. High they're up for
- 37:17Speaker 2: minus one fifty five to minus one eighty, five now
- 37:20Speaker 2: seventy nine percent of tickets ninety three percent of the
- 37:22Speaker 2: cash coming in on. Them so the money looks like
- 37:24Speaker 2: it is coming in At Kansas. City but, man that
- 37:26Speaker 2: is an expensive. Price Kansas city an expensive expensive hooker. There,
- 37:34Speaker 2: man you could play in them if you want, to
- 37:37Speaker 2: BUT i don't.
- 37:39Speaker 1: Know and then the money's coming in the under. Too
- 37:41Speaker 1: it's gone up from eight and a half to.
- 37:42Speaker 2: Nine BUT i see fifty eight percent of tickets on the,
- 37:44Speaker 2: over ninety one percent of.
- 37:45Speaker 1: The cash in the.
- 37:46Speaker 2: Under any game With Mitchell barker, Pitching i'm probably in
- 37:49Speaker 2: With washington's. Bullpen i'm not really going to be interested
- 37:52Speaker 2: in playing it under in a game like.
- 37:54Speaker 1: That so, yeah, no thank you on that.
- 37:56Speaker 2: One if you want to look For Kansas city to go,
- 37:59Speaker 2: over what of their team total is you could look that,
- 38:01Speaker 2: way Although parker his numbers in the matchup don't look
- 38:04Speaker 2: that bad Against Kansas, city SO i might scratch that as.
- 38:07Speaker 2: Well it's a difficult, game, man because if you want
- 38:09Speaker 2: to lay like a run line With Kansas, city you
- 38:11Speaker 2: have to hope that their really bad offense will actually
- 38:15Speaker 2: be able to score extra runs to get you over the.
- 38:17Speaker 1: Hump.
- 38:17Speaker 2: There not, great so we'll see what happens in that.
- 38:20Speaker 2: Game colorado At Saint. Louis Saint louis has won a
- 38:23Speaker 2: couple of games in a, row four out of the last. Five,
- 38:25Speaker 2: actually they took the first game of the series yesterday
- 38:28Speaker 2: that was three to.
- 38:29Speaker 1: Two Saint louis does have a bullpen edge in this.
- 38:32Speaker 2: Series they only used one relief pitcher yesterday Of colorado used.
- 38:35Speaker 2: Three so we're looking at a bullpen. Edge we're looking
- 38:38Speaker 2: at an offensive edge For Saint. Louis we get. It
- 38:40Speaker 2: and their starting pitcher is probably the better of the
- 38:42Speaker 2: two as. Well Kyle frielan pitching for The rockies not.
- 38:45Speaker 2: Good numbers five point five to THREE, era one point
- 38:49Speaker 2: five to whip not. Good he's been better away from coursefield,
- 38:52Speaker 2: though four point seven to five ROAD, era so his
- 38:55Speaker 2: numbers are better on the. Road last outing was pretty,
- 38:58Speaker 2: bad although it was in course. Field give up six
- 39:00Speaker 2: armed runs in that. Series We're colorado had absolutely rocked The,
- 39:04Speaker 2: rockies got rocked by The Blue. Jays he hasn't really
- 39:08Speaker 2: been pitching that, well though he failed to go five
- 39:10Speaker 2: innings over the last two. Starts he's not really in
- 39:12Speaker 2: great form right. NOW i don't know if he's ever
- 39:14Speaker 2: really necessarily in great. Form Against Saint, louis his numbers are,
- 39:18Speaker 2: WEIRD i would say in thirty nine at, bass eleven
- 39:21Speaker 2: to five strike a, Walk ratiore not very good on
- 39:23Speaker 2: the three of the walks Of, contrera's who also doesn't
- 39:26Speaker 2: even have a hit against.
- 39:27Speaker 1: Him two fifty six bounding. Average it's pretty. Low but
- 39:30Speaker 1: he's allowed in nine oh five ops excuse mely a
- 39:34Speaker 1: bunch of ex race, hits a couple of home runs in.
- 39:36Speaker 1: There that's not.
- 39:37Speaker 2: Great he's up Against Matthew libratrre has been okay for
- 39:42Speaker 2: since anati SINCE nat for The. Cardinals excuse, me, okay
- 39:46Speaker 2: three point nine eighty R a one point two nine
- 39:48Speaker 2: whip is a little bit. High he's been worse at
- 39:50Speaker 2: home four point three to NINE era at home failed
- 39:54Speaker 2: to go five innings in four straight. Starts, now so
- 39:56Speaker 2: that does worry. Me, man That Libra torre is not
- 39:59Speaker 2: a great form right. Now he actually has more walks
- 40:02Speaker 2: than strikeouts over that span two nine strikeouts and ten.
- 40:05Speaker 2: Walks not a good. Sign, actually that's including his starting
- 40:09Speaker 2: against The, cobs where he did go five. Innings my,
- 40:11Speaker 2: apologies but still it's a, bad bad strike out walk.
- 40:13Speaker 1: Ratio.
- 40:14Speaker 2: Recently rockies are pretty unfamiliar with them though they they
- 40:18Speaker 2: have eight hits off From doyle does have a home
- 40:20Speaker 2: run off. Him they have a two fifty average and
- 40:22Speaker 2: eight seventy five. Ops BUT i would Say libratory does
- 40:25Speaker 2: have the edge in that, game in that starting pitching.
- 40:27Speaker 2: Matchup it doesn't look necessarily that great for. Him Saint
- 40:31Speaker 2: louis is down for minus one ninety five to minus
- 40:33Speaker 2: one to. Eighty those seventy seven percent of tickets on
- 40:35Speaker 2: them only seventy five percent of the, Cash so the
- 40:37Speaker 2: money is actually taking a shot With. COLORADO i don't
- 40:41Speaker 2: THINK i would dare do. THAT i actually think an
- 40:44Speaker 2: over might be the way to look. Here but the
- 40:45Speaker 2: total's gone down from eight and a half to eight
- 40:47Speaker 2: and a half juice to the under fifty three percent
- 40:49Speaker 2: of cash ninety three percent of the cash com or
- 40:51Speaker 2: fifty three percent of tickets ninety three percent of the
- 40:53Speaker 2: cash on the.
- 40:53Speaker 1: UNDER i could.
- 40:55Speaker 2: See both starting pitchers struggling in this, game, Though, Man
- 40:57Speaker 2: SO i think in over my happened in that, game
- 41:01Speaker 2: it would be a slight lean for me in that.
- 41:03Speaker 1: One arizona At.
- 41:05Speaker 2: Texas texas won a winning seven to six, yesterday AND
- 41:09Speaker 2: i told YOU i actually thought that was a sneaky
- 41:11Speaker 2: over in the game yesterday With nelson And eavaldi pitched
- 41:15Speaker 2: yesterday with goodie, rays BUT i, said, man their matchup
- 41:18Speaker 2: numbers didn't look that. GREAT i thought it could go,
- 41:20Speaker 2: over and it went way, over Which i'm kind of surprised,
- 41:23Speaker 2: by and we. Got texas still does have a good,
- 41:25Speaker 2: bullpen but they.
- 41:26Speaker 1: Used a lot of.
- 41:27Speaker 2: It they used five relief pitchers. Yesterday arizona a bad
- 41:30Speaker 2: bullpen and they used four.
- 41:32Speaker 1: Of their relief.
- 41:32Speaker 2: Pitchers my voice is dying, Again so bullpen situation doesn't
- 41:37Speaker 2: look good for either team, here So i'm probably leaning
- 41:40Speaker 2: to an over in this game as. Well Das slafani
- 41:43Speaker 2: is pitching For, arizona which also doesn't seem like a
- 41:45Speaker 2: good thing to me four point TWO, era one point
- 41:47Speaker 2: two whip on the, season mediocre, numbers slightly worse.
- 41:51Speaker 1: On the road four point four E.
- 41:52Speaker 2: Ra but he's basically a converted relief, pitcher so you're
- 41:56Speaker 2: probably not gonna get that many innings out of. Him
- 41:58Speaker 2: he did go more than four innings in his last.
- 41:59Speaker 2: Time he didn't allow any runs Against San, diego didn't
- 42:02Speaker 2: walk anybody, either so he did okay, there but he
- 42:05Speaker 2: did up multiple walks.
- 42:06Speaker 1: In three of the prior four.
- 42:07Speaker 2: Appearances he's just not going deep into, games, Man so
- 42:10Speaker 2: if he's the, starter you're probably gonna get a lot
- 42:12Speaker 2: Of arizona's bullpen in this, game which you don't. Want
- 42:16Speaker 2: and his numbers Against texas are actually, bad even though
- 42:18Speaker 2: only five of their hitters have seen him, before And,
- 42:20Speaker 2: Merril kelly And jacob De grom are zero for five off.
- 42:23Speaker 1: Him and then they're included in.
- 42:24Speaker 2: There so his numbers against the actual three Batters, Peterson,
- 42:28Speaker 2: sieger And semion who have seen him before some of
- 42:30Speaker 2: the best hitters on The, rangers they've all bombed. Him
- 42:33Speaker 2: even if you include To gram And kelly in, there
- 42:36Speaker 2: he's a lot of four seventeen batting average for them
- 42:39Speaker 2: in one thousand and three zero six ops and they
- 42:41Speaker 2: got five home runs off, him so The rangers have
- 42:44Speaker 2: actually hit him for. Power eleven strikeouts no walks is
- 42:48Speaker 2: actually really good For, Disclifani BUT i think is the
- 42:51Speaker 2: power numbers he's allowed to Text texas are just, ridiculous
- 42:55Speaker 2: SO i want to trust. HIM i would not Trust
- 42:57Speaker 2: arizona's pitching in this. Game Jack lighter pitching For. TECH i,
- 43:00Speaker 2: mean he's a young guy with high velocity, stuff but
- 43:03Speaker 2: he does walk way too many. Guys four point zero
- 43:06Speaker 2: FIVE vra not, horrible but one point three to FIVE
- 43:08Speaker 2: whip is definitely pretty up.
- 43:11Speaker 1: THERE i don't like that.
- 43:11Speaker 2: Whip three POINT sixtyra on the, SEASON i mean three
- 43:15Speaker 2: point SIXTY ra at home on the, season so he
- 43:17Speaker 2: hasn't better at. Home but both starts this month he
- 43:20Speaker 2: failed to go five innings in both of them ten
- 43:23Speaker 2: to seven strike at walk. Ratio one was against The,
- 43:25Speaker 2: yankees so that's. Difficult one was Against, seattle not exactly
- 43:29Speaker 2: the easiest assignment, either but he's just not in great
- 43:31Speaker 2: form right.
- 43:32Speaker 1: Now. Man his walk numbers have been bad over the past.
- 43:35Speaker 2: Month arizona's never seen him, before so maybe he does
- 43:38Speaker 2: have a little bit of an extra edge Because arizona
- 43:40Speaker 2: hasn't seen him, before BUT i don't know how long
- 43:42Speaker 2: that's gonna. Last and then you have an unrested bull
- 43:45Speaker 2: bend as well For. Texas SO i actually think In
- 43:47Speaker 2: over is worth a look in this. Game and the
- 43:49Speaker 2: money is disagreeing with me on that one. Too it's
- 43:51Speaker 2: down from nine to eight and a half nine to
- 43:53Speaker 2: two percent of tickets on the over only fifty nine
- 43:55Speaker 2: percent of the. Cash BUT i could see a lot
- 43:57Speaker 2: of runs if he scored, here or if you.
- 43:59Speaker 1: DID i Like arizona's.
- 44:01Speaker 2: Pitching situation, more which IS i mean that is my.
- 44:04Speaker 2: SITUATION i don't Like arizona's pitching. Situation you could.
- 44:07Speaker 1: Go With texas to go over their team. Total the
- 44:09Speaker 1: only difficulty Is texas.
- 44:11Speaker 2: Is one of the worst scoring teams at. Home their
- 44:14Speaker 2: offense has been quite. Bad arizona does have the better,
- 44:16Speaker 2: bullpend so if you go, Over arizona does have the better.
- 44:20Speaker 2: Hitting excuse, Me texas obviously has the better, bullpen But
- 44:23Speaker 2: arizona is the better. Offense if you go, over you
- 44:25Speaker 2: kind of want to Include arizona's offense to try to
- 44:28Speaker 2: help you out. There BUT i could see an argument
- 44:31Speaker 2: For texas over their team. Total, Nonetheless texas down for
- 44:34Speaker 2: minus one forty five to minus one forty, two sixty
- 44:36Speaker 2: seven percent of tickets seventy four percent of the cash on,
- 44:39Speaker 2: them so the money looks like it's slightly coming Into
- 44:41Speaker 2: texas in that. GAME i wouldn't really disagree with, it
- 44:44Speaker 2: because lighter being the unknown probably is a better way
- 44:48Speaker 2: to go Than arizona With arizona's pitching they have going,
- 44:52Speaker 2: on SO i don't really disagree with that. Either My
- 44:54Speaker 2: Red sox At, houston it's just, bad. Dude The Red
- 44:56Speaker 2: sox were a big favorite on the, road WHICH i
- 44:59Speaker 2: thought they were too much of a favorite, yesterday BUT
- 45:00Speaker 2: i didn't really think they're gonna lose the game outright
- 45:03Speaker 2: With Garrett crochet on the. Mouth so they wasted A
- 45:05Speaker 2: Garrett crochet. Start Red sox blew. It they lost seven to.
- 45:09Speaker 2: Six not good at. All both of these bullpens are fairly,
- 45:12Speaker 2: decent Although i'm gonna Give houston a bullpen edge. Here
- 45:15Speaker 2: Although houston used five relievers and The Red sox only
- 45:18Speaker 2: used three, Yesterday houston does generally have the better, bullpen,
- 45:21Speaker 2: though because a couple of their relievers only threw like
- 45:24Speaker 2: fewer than ten.
- 45:25Speaker 1: Pitches they'll probably be available again.
- 45:26Speaker 2: Today starting pitching, Well first of, all the, Offense i'm
- 45:30Speaker 2: gonna give the edge to The Red. Sox actually in
- 45:32Speaker 2: the OFFENSE i think. Slightly let me see about the hitting.
- 45:35Speaker 1: Here, yeah The Red sox have a better, offense but
- 45:38Speaker 1: they're not quite as good on the.
- 45:39Speaker 2: Road starting pitching is actually difficult to. Gauge Dustin may
- 45:43Speaker 2: making his second start for The Red. Sox you know, me,
- 45:47Speaker 2: MAN i don't.
- 45:47Speaker 1: Think may is.
- 45:48Speaker 2: GOOD i don't think he's ever gonna return to what
- 45:50Speaker 2: he was before his injury or whatever the case.
- 45:53Speaker 1: WAS i don't like it this. Year not.
- 45:55Speaker 2: Good numbers four point nine to THREE, era one point
- 45:58Speaker 2: three to seven whip not. Good he's been ball on the,
- 46:00Speaker 2: road seven point zero ninety area on the.
- 46:03Speaker 1: Road not looking.
- 46:04Speaker 2: Good in his first start with The Red sox at
- 46:06Speaker 2: home In, fenway WHERE i don't think he pitches well In.
- 46:10Speaker 2: Fenway he actually made two starts in a row In
- 46:12Speaker 2: fenway and actually have up seven runs in eight and
- 46:14Speaker 2: two thirds.
- 46:15Speaker 1: Innings not.
- 46:16Speaker 2: Good and what's really bad is and one of them
- 46:18Speaker 2: was against The Red sox, Though but what's really bad
- 46:20Speaker 2: is his last.
- 46:21Speaker 1: Start he didn't even make it four. Innings he'll have
- 46:23Speaker 1: three on runs on six hits to The Kansas City.
- 46:25Speaker 1: Royals that is, bad a, bad bad. Offense it's not
- 46:29Speaker 1: looking good For. May he's not a very good form right.
- 46:31Speaker 2: Now did have a four to one strike a walk
- 46:34Speaker 2: ratio in that, game which was, fine But i'm not liking.
- 46:36Speaker 1: It his numbers are mediocre Against.
- 46:38Speaker 2: Houston at twenty six at, bats two sixty nine bad,
- 46:40Speaker 2: average allowed seven to forty five, ohps seven to two
- 46:44Speaker 2: strike a walk ration is pretty, good but he may
- 46:46Speaker 2: not be totally trustworthy Against. Houston houston Is Spencer arraghetty,
- 46:50Speaker 2: pitching and he's missed almost the entire season with an.
- 46:53Speaker 2: Injury he's a young, guy definitely has talent if you
- 46:56Speaker 2: look at what he's done in the. Past his numbers
- 46:58Speaker 2: weren't great last, year AND i mean that was his rookie.
- 47:01Speaker 2: Season he showed glimpses of being fairly. Good he had
- 47:03Speaker 2: a really high strikeout, rate but his whip was really
- 47:06Speaker 2: high last year one point four to ONE era was
- 47:08Speaker 2: four point five to three just because again he allowed
- 47:12Speaker 2: way too many. Walks he had well over one strikeout an,
- 47:14Speaker 2: inning but his walk rate was way too high this.
- 47:18Speaker 2: Year he struggled seven point four to THREE era one
- 47:20Speaker 2: point five eight. Whip but, again he's only made one
- 47:23Speaker 2: start since he came back from, injuries so he hadn't
- 47:25Speaker 2: pitched Since. April but then one start was.
- 47:28Speaker 1: Bad it was At.
- 47:30Speaker 2: Miami they're not a great, offense and he allowed five
- 47:32Speaker 2: runs on eleven hits to them in three and two,
- 47:34Speaker 2: thirds five strikeouts one.
- 47:36Speaker 1: Walk wasn't that, bad but he did get bombed By,
- 47:39Speaker 1: miami so.
- 47:40Speaker 2: He's still working his way, back and maybe he's not
- 47:42Speaker 2: quite totally back at this. Point his numbers against The
- 47:45Speaker 2: Red sox in a short sixteen at bat sample size are,
- 47:48Speaker 2: good Though Masa yoshida has a home run off, him
- 47:53Speaker 2: but he's got seven strikeouts one walk against The Red
- 47:56Speaker 2: sox's helling to a one to twenty five average and
- 47:58Speaker 2: four to eighty nine oh.
- 47:58Speaker 1: Ps The Red socks only have one.
- 48:00Speaker 2: Other hit against, them So arragetty and a very small
- 48:02Speaker 2: stable size has done well against The Red. SOX i
- 48:05Speaker 2: would have a slight lean To houston in this game
- 48:07Speaker 2: on the money line dropped on them for just one
- 48:10Speaker 2: twenty five to ONE o. Eight you're getting a cheaper
- 48:12Speaker 2: price On, houston seventy four percent of, tickets seventy two
- 48:15Speaker 2: percent of the cash.
- 48:15Speaker 1: On The Red.
- 48:16Speaker 2: Sox The Red sox are public in this, game and you,
- 48:19Speaker 2: know the public road underdogs don't work. Out they don't
- 48:25Speaker 2: tend to work out as much as it works out
- 48:27Speaker 2: going against. Them Uh so you KNOW i don't like
- 48:29Speaker 2: those public road. Underdogs, man that's a. Problem so, YEAH
- 48:33Speaker 2: i would lean To houston in that, game either first
- 48:35Speaker 2: five or full. Game dodgers At. Anaheim one THING i
- 48:39Speaker 2: forgot to mention about this series That anaheim actually swept
- 48:43Speaker 2: The dodgers AT la earlier in the, season WHICH i
- 48:46Speaker 2: totally forgot.
- 48:46Speaker 1: About and The.
- 48:47Speaker 2: Dodgers are still looking for some revenge here As anaheim
- 48:51Speaker 2: took yesterday's game, too even though it looked like it
- 48:54Speaker 2: was a total lop, side totally lopsided matchup for The
- 48:57Speaker 2: dodgers yesterday with The yamamoto on the, mound it didn't
- 49:00Speaker 2: even matter need a hit two of them, RUNS i,
- 49:02Speaker 2: guess and The angels won the game seven to. Four just,
- 49:05Speaker 2: crazy So andrew probably celebrating out. There so The dodgers are,
- 49:09Speaker 2: NOW i believe ah for four owned four Against anaheim
- 49:12Speaker 2: this year just. Crazy The dodgers for that, REASON i
- 49:16Speaker 2: think are gonna be Taking anaheim seriously. HERE i thought
- 49:18Speaker 2: the situation was better for The dodgers, yesterday THOUGH i
- 49:21Speaker 2: thought you know that they would have the better matchup
- 49:24Speaker 2: angle of the better pitching.
- 49:25Speaker 1: MATCHUP i, mean so be that.
- 49:28Speaker 2: As Any anaheim, won even though it was also a
- 49:30Speaker 2: return home spot For anaheim that won seven of. FOUR
- 49:33Speaker 2: i would give The dodgers the bullpen edge, today even
- 49:36Speaker 2: though The dodgers don't have the Better even though The
- 49:38Speaker 2: dodgers don't have a good, Bullpen anaeims is. Worse anaheim
- 49:42Speaker 2: got slightly more bullpen you suggest today as, well so
- 49:45Speaker 2: The dodgers bullpen.
- 49:46Speaker 1: Does have a slight edge to a slightly better.
- 49:48Speaker 2: Bullpen dodgers obviously are the better, offense but you got
- 49:52Speaker 2: to give The dodgers an edge in this game as.
- 49:53Speaker 2: Well With Emmett sheen on the, mound he's a really
- 49:55Speaker 2: talented young pitcher.
- 49:57Speaker 1: Man his numbers are fairly decent so far this year.
- 50:00Speaker 2: Three era one point two, whip pretty limited sample size so.
- 50:04Speaker 2: Far he's been better on the, road though two point
- 50:06Speaker 2: eighty ra a last outing you did go five. Innings
- 50:09Speaker 2: it was one of his better starts that it was
- 50:11Speaker 2: probably his best start of the. Season actually went five,
- 50:13Speaker 2: innings allowed noarn runs Against Saint. Louis the defense wasn't
- 50:17Speaker 2: great behind him, though a couple Of honurn. Runs but
- 50:19Speaker 2: on Nowhar in runs despite allowing a home, run that's
- 50:22Speaker 2: that's the way to do, It, man.
- 50:24Speaker 1: Five, strikeouts one Walk Saint.
- 50:26Speaker 2: LOUIS i, mean there were at least a mediocre hitting,
- 50:29Speaker 2: team so she and might be kind of rounding it
- 50:31Speaker 2: to form a little bit.
- 50:32Speaker 1: HERE i think he's, good he's.
- 50:33Speaker 2: Talented he's only a lot more than touring runs once all,
- 50:36Speaker 2: season although most of his starts he hasn't gone that,
- 50:38Speaker 2: deep so you do have to keep that in. Mind
- 50:40Speaker 2: anaheim has never seen him, before so he might have
- 50:42Speaker 2: a little bit of an extra edge in that. Regard
- 50:44Speaker 2: because when you have a, young talented pitcher that throws,
- 50:46Speaker 2: hard that can strike out guys at the major league,
- 50:48Speaker 2: level lineups tend to have.
- 50:51Speaker 1: To kind of try to adjust to. Him so it
- 50:52Speaker 1: might be a little bit of an extra edge for
- 50:54Speaker 1: She in.
- 50:54Speaker 2: There he's up Against Victor, medeiros WHICH i don't know
- 50:59Speaker 2: what we're gonna get on it. Him, Man he's had
- 51:00Speaker 2: a four point five, yr one point five whip this,
- 51:03Speaker 2: year which is not. Good does have a ZERO era at,
- 51:06Speaker 2: home but it's a very limited sample. Size he's barely
- 51:08Speaker 2: pitched this year at. All he's only pitched four innings this.
- 51:10Speaker 2: Year he's only made two appearances this entire, season one
- 51:14Speaker 2: In april and one In. July looks like he was
- 51:17Speaker 2: down in the minors And anaheim basically just had to
- 51:19Speaker 2: call him, UP i guess because maybe they don't have anybody.
- 51:22Speaker 2: Else and it looks like it's probably gonna be a
- 51:24Speaker 2: bullpen game because he hasn't gone more than three innings
- 51:26Speaker 2: in either of his.
- 51:27Speaker 1: Outings so you're.
- 51:28Speaker 2: Looking at An anaheim bullpen game, here and their bullpen's not.
- 51:31Speaker 2: Good madeiros over his career has not been. Good in
- 51:35Speaker 2: nine appearance this is twenty twenty, three all With anaheim
- 51:37Speaker 2: all out of the. Bullpen eight point seven to SIX
- 51:40Speaker 2: era and two point one to NINE. Whip that's a bad.
- 51:42Speaker 2: SIGN i don't know if he's faced The dodgers at.
- 51:45Speaker 2: All we can see, no so The dodgers haven't seen him.
- 51:48Speaker 2: Before it doesn't really Matter anaheim bullpend. GAME i think
- 51:50Speaker 2: The dodgers do have all The edges in this, game
- 51:53Speaker 2: but you're paying the price of The dodgers are where they.
- 51:56Speaker 2: At they're up for minus one sixty minus one eighty.
- 51:58Speaker 2: One now does look like the money is indeed coming
- 52:00Speaker 2: in on The dodgers here eighty percent, tickets ninety six
- 52:02Speaker 2: percent of the cash, come you, know and then the
- 52:04Speaker 2: line probably too much of a price total is shot
- 52:08Speaker 2: up from nine and a half to ten as. Well
- 52:10Speaker 2: seventy three percent, tickets ninety five percent of the cash
- 52:12Speaker 2: on the. Over so the money coming in on the.
- 52:13Speaker 2: Over but the way THAT i would probably do it
- 52:15Speaker 2: Is dodgers over their team. Total just go with The
- 52:18Speaker 2: dodgers to score runs against This anahim terrible bullpens set
- 52:22Speaker 2: up they got going on. There what is not a
- 52:25Speaker 2: terrible bullpen set up.
- 52:26Speaker 1: Is San diego And San. Francisco these bullpens are both.
- 52:29Speaker 2: Good these bullpens both didn't see a ton of usage,
- 52:32Speaker 2: yesterday three relievers for each.
- 52:35Speaker 1: Bullpen San francisco used a little bit less of their.
- 52:37Speaker 2: Bullpen San francisco on a three game slide, here losing
- 52:40Speaker 2: yesterday in the series opener four to.
- 52:42Speaker 1: ONE i gave out the under on that. Game we
- 52:44Speaker 1: got it.
- 52:45Speaker 2: Done man as a, You, DARVISH i think actually was
- 52:48Speaker 2: able to get, us get us there and get us
- 52:50Speaker 2: a pretty good.
- 52:51Speaker 1: START i don't look at the box, score BUT i
- 52:52Speaker 1: assume he got us a good start.
- 52:54Speaker 2: Yesterday might not have a good start From San diego
- 52:57Speaker 2: this time, out, though, man because they got Nextra.
- 52:59Speaker 1: Coarte he on the.
- 53:00Speaker 2: Mound cortes seven point one, one one point five eight
- 53:05Speaker 2: whip this, season not good at. All San diego just
- 53:09Speaker 2: picked him up actually because he was On. Milwaukee he
- 53:12Speaker 2: was on The yankees last, year and then he famously
- 53:15Speaker 2: got absolutely wrecked in his opening start For milwaukee by
- 53:19Speaker 2: his former.
- 53:19Speaker 1: Team The.
- 53:19Speaker 2: Yankees give up five home runs in two winnings in that,
- 53:23Speaker 2: game in addition to five, walks six, hits eight, runs unbelievably.
- 53:26Speaker 2: Abysmal but he bounced back with a good starting Against
- 53:29Speaker 2: cincinnati the next time, out and then he got, injured
- 53:31Speaker 2: so he was looking like he was on the right.
- 53:32Speaker 2: Track one Hit cincinnati for six. Innings then he came
- 53:36Speaker 2: back from injury months later in his most recent start
- 53:40Speaker 2: six days. Ago it was a tough to, sign and
- 53:41Speaker 2: At arizona there's still a good, offense it's a good hitting.
- 53:44Speaker 1: Part but he didn't do.
- 53:45Speaker 2: Well he went four and two, thirds three, strikeouts three,
- 53:48Speaker 2: walks not a good, sign but he might, say, well
- 53:50Speaker 2: he gets a little bit of a reprieve, year right
- 53:52Speaker 2: because he's Facing San. Francisco San francisco is a bad. Offense,
- 53:55Speaker 2: Man they're the worst of these two offenses. HERE i
- 53:58Speaker 2: Think San FRANCISCO i might give him with slight bullpen
- 54:01Speaker 2: edge year just based on the bullpen rest. Scenario San
- 54:04Speaker 2: francisco does not have the better, offense But cortes has
- 54:08Speaker 2: actually been pretty bad against.
- 54:09Speaker 1: Them in fifty at. Bats they've been him for a
- 54:12Speaker 1: ton of. Hour.
- 54:13Speaker 2: MAN i don't know what it is With cortes and
- 54:14Speaker 2: allowing home, runs but they have six home runs off.
- 54:17Speaker 2: Him chapman And devers eas have two bombs off. Him
- 54:20Speaker 2: devers only four for, eighteen but does have familiarity with
- 54:23Speaker 2: him from being in The Al east with The Red.
- 54:25Speaker 2: Sox twenty one to four strike at walk ratio is
- 54:28Speaker 2: good For cortes Against San, francisco but other than, that
- 54:30Speaker 2: he's a lot of two eighty average in one thy
- 54:33Speaker 2: seventy three oh, ps so his numbers are not good
- 54:35Speaker 2: against The. Giants you gotta Give Robbie ray the starting
- 54:39Speaker 2: pitching edge Here man two point eight FIVE yrra one
- 54:42Speaker 2: point one to three.
- 54:42Speaker 1: Whip he's having a good.
- 54:43Speaker 2: Season he's been better at home to two point five
- 54:46Speaker 2: EIGHTY rra at. Home he's back in good for him
- 54:48Speaker 2: after he was a little bit shaky kind of around
- 54:50Speaker 2: The All star. BREAK i think maybe he got distracted
- 54:53Speaker 2: by being named to The All star. Team he's bounced
- 54:55Speaker 2: back nicely this month with a fourteen to three strike
- 54:58Speaker 2: at walk ratio along re earned runs on ten hits
- 55:01Speaker 2: and thirteen, innings both starts on the. Road one was
- 55:04Speaker 2: against The, mets who were pretty difficult lineup to. Face
- 55:07Speaker 2: the other one was Against, pittsburgh who suck but still.
- 55:09Speaker 2: Ray he's in pretty good form right. Now AND i
- 55:12Speaker 2: THINK i did give out the under maybe in that
- 55:13Speaker 2: game Against pittsburgh IF i remember, CORRECTLY i might be,
- 55:17Speaker 2: misrememboring but that did get. There his numbers are mediocre
- 55:21Speaker 2: Against San diego and seventy two at, bets nineteen to
- 55:24Speaker 2: fourteen strike a walk ratios warriorsome five home runs allowed As,
- 55:27Speaker 2: warriors some of Them machado has three of them in
- 55:30Speaker 2: only four hits against. Them Some machado and six of
- 55:33Speaker 2: those walks so really it's like if you can pitch Around,
- 55:35Speaker 2: machado he does. Better bogar stays have a home run
- 55:38Speaker 2: in three walks off him as, well but the rest
- 55:40Speaker 2: of this lineup doesn't do that well against. Him, overall
- 55:42Speaker 2: they do have a two point fifty average against, him
- 55:44Speaker 2: which is, low but an eight to seventy two oh.
- 55:46Speaker 1: Ps which is a bit. High ALTHOUGH i would.
- 55:49Speaker 2: Lean To San francisco in this, GAME i think they
- 55:51Speaker 2: have the bullpen edge slightly AND i think they have
- 55:53Speaker 2: a fairly significant starting pitching, Edge SO i would actually
- 55:56Speaker 2: probably go first five Innings San francisco and just go
- 55:59Speaker 2: With ray to Outpitch.
- 56:00Speaker 1: Cortes that's probably the way THAT i would go in the.
- 56:02Speaker 2: Game but the money's coming in On San. Diego San
- 56:05Speaker 2: francisco is down for minus one, thirty minus one, eleven
- 56:08Speaker 2: sixty two percent of tickets on, them but sixty eight
- 56:10Speaker 2: percent of the cash coming in On San. Diego and
- 56:12Speaker 2: this is a big. SERIES i, mean both teams have
- 56:14Speaker 2: a reason to show up here in this. Game, First
- 56:18Speaker 2: Red Sox houston both fighting for playoff, positioning so they
- 56:20Speaker 2: have a reason to show. Up, TEXAS i should, say
- 56:23Speaker 2: is a little bit extra motivation because they're fighting for playoff.
- 56:25Speaker 1: Positioning arizona's out of, It.
- 56:28Speaker 2: Dodgers obviously playing for play up, Positioning anaheim basically out of,
- 56:32Speaker 2: it But. Anaheim both those teams are gonna show up
- 56:34Speaker 2: because it's a big rivalry. Series this is obviously a
- 56:37Speaker 2: divisional rivalry Series San Diego San, francisco and both teams
- 56:41Speaker 2: fighting for playoff positioning, here so they're both gonna show
- 56:43Speaker 2: up as. Well this total has dropped to seven and
- 56:45Speaker 2: a half from being juiced to the over seventy eight
- 56:48Speaker 2: percent of. Tickets only sixty percent of the casch on the,
- 56:50Speaker 2: over so the money's coming in on the.
- 56:51Speaker 1: Under i'm just not.
- 56:53Speaker 2: Quite sure we could trust that With cortes out, THERE
- 56:56Speaker 2: i don't really, know. Man so, AGAIN i still think
- 56:58Speaker 2: despite where the money's, GOING i still Think San francisco
- 57:01Speaker 2: first five innings kind of makes, sense and Then tampa
- 57:04Speaker 2: and The a's to finish it.
- 57:05Speaker 1: OFF i did SAY.
- 57:06Speaker 2: I Liked tampa, yesterday which MAYBE i should have given
- 57:08Speaker 2: it a note as a play is The a's returned
- 57:10Speaker 2: home from a road trip to The East, coast and
- 57:12Speaker 2: of course it app and The a's lost the.
- 57:14Speaker 1: Game The a's have been really bad in this home
- 57:17Speaker 1: stadium In.
- 57:18Speaker 2: Sacramento it's almost a home field disadvantage for The a's,
- 57:22Speaker 2: here and it might be somewhat of an advantage To,
- 57:24Speaker 2: tampa AS i pointed out, yesterday Because tampa plays in
- 57:27Speaker 2: a similar temporary stadium temporary, home not a temporary, stadium
- 57:31Speaker 2: a temporary home for them In Steinbrenner, field which is
- 57:34Speaker 2: a spring training stadium.
- 57:35Speaker 1: That is very hit her.
- 57:36Speaker 2: Friendly So tampa is at least very used to playing
- 57:39Speaker 2: in a stadium like. This So Tampa bay does have
- 57:42Speaker 2: an edge in that. Regard they also have the better.
- 57:45Speaker 2: BULLPEN i, mean The a's have a terrible. Bullpen a's
- 57:49Speaker 2: had more bullpen usage yesterday as, well So tampa has
- 57:52Speaker 2: an edge in the bullpen as well as have the better,
- 57:55Speaker 2: offense although they've actually been a bit better on the Road.
- 57:59Speaker 2: Tampa it's tough to gauge which one of these pitchers
- 58:02Speaker 2: you would actually want to go. With Man Shane boz For,
- 58:05Speaker 2: tampa actually has the worst season numbers out of these two,
- 58:08Speaker 2: pitchers but he might actually be the better way to
- 58:11Speaker 2: go in this. GAME a four point nine TWO era
- 58:13Speaker 2: one point three to four whip doesn't look, good but
- 58:15Speaker 2: away From. Simburnerfield he's been a lot better a three
- 58:18Speaker 2: point three four era in the, road although granted he's
- 58:21Speaker 2: pitching in another really difficult stadium to pitch in. Here
- 58:23Speaker 2: so if that's the reason why he's not good and
- 58:25Speaker 2: giving up thirteen of his twenty one home runs at
- 58:28Speaker 2: home this, year this stadium specifically might be bad for
- 58:32Speaker 2: him on the, Road, andrew what's, up, Man we'll see
- 58:35Speaker 2: if we get a fifth dil though fifth, right and
- 58:37Speaker 2: THE wnba will.
- 58:38Speaker 1: See but, yeah.
- 58:40Speaker 2: Overall boz has been better on the, road but again
- 58:43Speaker 2: it might be because most road stadiums are not like
- 58:45Speaker 2: his home stadium and this one kind of.
- 58:47Speaker 1: Is so we'll see what he. Does over the last.
- 58:50Speaker 2: Month it's been a real mixed bag for. Him, man
- 58:53Speaker 2: he's allowed nine ear and runs in nine. Inns he
- 58:56Speaker 2: has a NINEY.
- 58:57Speaker 1: Ra she would say he's not a very good, form
- 58:59Speaker 1: but he had a.
- 59:00Speaker 2: Ridiculous seventeen strikeouts over that span two and four. Walks,
- 59:04Speaker 2: NORMALLY i would say the four walks is really bad,
- 59:07Speaker 2: too in addition to thirteen hits putting a ton of
- 59:10Speaker 2: guys on, base that's, awful but the strikeout rate is ridiculously.
- 59:13Speaker 2: High So boz is all over the place man with
- 59:16Speaker 2: good strikeouts uff but getting hit really hard at the same.
- 59:19Speaker 2: Time really in, walking, guys it's just. Crazy boz is
- 59:23Speaker 2: just a, really really frenetic. Pitcher but he's been good
- 59:26Speaker 2: against The a's and thirty eight at bats eleven to
- 59:28Speaker 2: two strikeout walk. Ratio lengeliers does have a home run,
- 59:32Speaker 2: off but other than, that he's pretty much held him
- 59:33Speaker 2: down one to eighty four batting average five to forty
- 59:36Speaker 2: one oh. Ps So, boz even though the stadium is
- 59:39Speaker 2: not very, good he might actually do somewhat well in this.
- 59:41Speaker 2: Game AND i believe he did face The a's earlier this,
- 59:44Speaker 2: season although it was In Tampa, bay and he did.
- 59:48Speaker 2: Well he went seven innings with eleven, strikeouts one, walk
- 59:50Speaker 2: gave it three on runs even The a's won an extra.
- 59:52Speaker 1: Innings it was Not boz's. Fault he's going.
- 59:55Speaker 2: Up Against Jacob, lopez who's been all over the place.
- 59:58Speaker 2: Man his numbers are fairly, decent three point five to NINE,
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: era one point two to FIVE. Whip he's actually been
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: better at, home which makes no sense three point one
- 1:00:06Speaker 2: to THREE era in this bad home, stadium BUT i
- 1:00:09Speaker 2: guess he's used to fooling, hitters and he seems to
- 1:00:12Speaker 2: be back in form again man after he hit like
- 1:00:15Speaker 2: a rut and fell out a for, Him lopez is
- 1:00:17Speaker 2: not a guy with a hard.
- 1:00:18Speaker 1: Fastball.
- 1:00:18Speaker 2: Man even though he racks up a decent amount of,
- 1:00:21Speaker 2: strikeouts he does it with like weird off speed stuff
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: keeping hitters off.
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: Balance but in his last three.
- 1:00:26Speaker 2: Starts even though one of them didn't last five, inninges
- 1:00:28Speaker 2: he hasn't allowed any runs over that.
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: Span in whatever that. Is it's a eighteen innings.
- 1:00:36Speaker 2: Pitches that what a seventeen innings, pitch whatever the hell it.
- 1:00:38Speaker 2: Is so that's a decent.
- 1:00:41Speaker 1: Sign and with six walks and nineteen strikeouts over his
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: last two starts fifteen to two strike out walk, ratiow
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: so he is pitching fairly. Well two of those starts are.
- 1:00:50Speaker 2: Against houston And, arizona and then the best one was Against,
- 1:00:53Speaker 2: washington not as good of an, offense but Still lopez
- 1:00:56Speaker 2: looks like he's kind of back in form again.
- 1:00:58Speaker 1: Here man up against The.
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: Hampa bay's numbers are not, good but it's a very
- 1:01:02Speaker 2: small ten at bat sample, size has a lot of
- 1:01:05Speaker 2: home run To ken And arrow three underd batting average
- 1:01:08Speaker 2: nine to sixty four oh ps one to one strike
- 1:01:10Speaker 2: a walk, Ratio SO i kind of lean To boz.
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: Being the better of these two. Pitchers.
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: Man so even though it should be a kind of
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: a bounce back spot for The a's because when a
- 1:01:20Speaker 2: team returns home from a road, trip they tend to
- 1:01:22Speaker 2: do a little bit worse and they didn't do excuse,
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: me bounce back in the next game if they do
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: badly in that first. Game so, situation it kind of
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: looks like it sets up better for The, a's but
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup and just the matchup in general to,
- 1:01:35Speaker 2: me except for the, Offense actually it looks better For.
- 1:01:37Speaker 2: Tampa and that's where the money's coming. IN a is
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: down for minus one to fifteen min ONE o seven
- 1:01:42Speaker 2: sixty per tickets on, them but fifty four percent of
- 1:01:44Speaker 2: the cash.
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: Coming in On. Tampa SO i will actually agree with that.
- 1:01:48Speaker 2: ONE i would Say tampa probably would go full game
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: because if you want to, fade The a's usually want
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: to include fading their bullpen as part of the. Equation
- 1:01:56Speaker 2: so slight lean in that direction from me there would
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: probably be the way to. Look and the money's coming
- 1:02:02Speaker 2: in the under for some, reason it's actually a low
- 1:02:05Speaker 2: total for an a's game done From actually it's nine
- 1:02:08Speaker 2: and a half juice to the, over the little bit less,
- 1:02:10Speaker 2: juice sixty two percent of tickets on the over fifty
- 1:02:12Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash on the. Under i'll leave
- 1:02:15Speaker 2: that one, alone, Though, nate what's up, Man thanks for hanging,
- 1:02:17Speaker 2: out and we're gonna go with the best bet segment
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: WHERE i have one bet.
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: And you can see which game it.
- 1:02:23Speaker 2: Is it Is Cubs Blue, Jays so just one of
- 1:02:25Speaker 2: the better matchups one of the best records in The
- 1:02:29Speaker 2: National league versus one of the best records in The American. League,
- 1:02:31Speaker 2: HOWEVER i do think The cubs are the better team.
- 1:02:34Speaker 2: HERE i Think i'm gonna give The cubs the offensive
- 1:02:37Speaker 2: edge even though the even Though toronto actually has a
- 1:02:39Speaker 2: higher TEAM ops right, NOW i still think The cubs
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: are actually the better. OFFENSE i Think toronto might start
- 1:02:45Speaker 2: a little bit of regression, here. Man, actually The cubs
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: are the better. Team i'm gonna go with, it even
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: though on the surface you might think you want to
- 1:02:53Speaker 2: go With toronto here because it looks like they have
- 1:02:55Speaker 2: the better starting pitcher on the. Mound Eer, wise, YEAH i,
- 1:02:58Speaker 2: mean there's a, big big difference in the era's. Here
- 1:03:01Speaker 2: BUT i actually think that the gap between these two starters.
- 1:03:04Speaker 1: Is a lot less than you.
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: Think AND i actually think the bullpens kind of line
- 1:03:09Speaker 2: up as kind of a wash as well, here even Though,
- 1:03:12Speaker 2: toronto i'd, say does have a somewhat better.
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: Bullpend what are you looking at? Here this is the.
- 1:03:15Speaker 2: Pitching toronto's falling a little bit down to. Tenth their
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: bullpen E ra is actually up over four, now so
- 1:03:20Speaker 2: their bullpen has actually been a little bit Worse, reacently
- 1:03:23Speaker 2: The cubs actually have a better bullpen. Ara i'm just
- 1:03:26Speaker 2: ordering this by, whips so their whip is a little bit.
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: Worse BUT i think The cubs actually have a slightly
- 1:03:30Speaker 1: better bullpen at this.
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: Point, Yeah toronto's third in ops hitting, wise so The
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: cubs are, fifth and it's a very very insignificant difference.
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: There SO i do think The cobs actually may have
- 1:03:40Speaker 2: the better offense. Too and the starting, pitching, AGAIN i,
- 1:03:42Speaker 2: think is not as much of a disparity as you would.
- 1:03:45Speaker 2: Think the money is agreeing with me on. This it's
- 1:03:47Speaker 2: down for minus one thirty to minus one nineteen On.
- 1:03:49Speaker 2: Toronto here you're getting The cubs as an. Underdog, man
- 1:03:52Speaker 2: it's very rare you get The cubs as an, underdog
- 1:03:54Speaker 2: and normally you would think it.
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: Looks too easy to take The.
- 1:03:56Speaker 2: Cubs but the public's not thinking, that as the public
- 1:03:59Speaker 2: has seventy percent of the tickets On toronto and only
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: sixty two percent of the. Cash SO i actually think we're.
- 1:04:03Speaker 2: Fading toronto is the public team, here which is. CRAZY
- 1:04:07Speaker 2: i think it's because of the starting pitching matchup. Here
- 1:04:11Speaker 2: both teams are starting a new series And toronto's returning
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: from a road. Trip, Man so that that's one factor
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: here that it makes it a bad spot For. Toronto
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: so the situation is part of the handicap. Here, YES
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: i know it's not gonna be a terribly distracted. Spot
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: when you know you have The cubs coming into, town
- 1:04:25Speaker 2: you're probably gonna show up for. That but they're still
- 1:04:29Speaker 2: returning home across multiple time, Zones, man three time zones
- 1:04:32Speaker 2: for playing in, elevation Blasting colorado with like tons and
- 1:04:36Speaker 2: tons of runs and then playing a big series against The,
- 1:04:38Speaker 2: dodgers finishing that off with a, win and then returning
- 1:04:41Speaker 2: all from all, THAT i still think it's a distracted.
- 1:04:43Speaker 2: Spot you still have to get stuff done back at
- 1:04:45Speaker 2: home and you've been away for a. While you got
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: to readjust to the time. Zone they got to go through.
- 1:04:49Speaker 2: Customs it's one of the longest flights THAT i think
- 1:04:52Speaker 2: you can have in all of. BASEBALL i think the
- 1:04:54Speaker 2: longest is likely to be A San diego To, toronto
- 1:04:57Speaker 2: Right So la To toronto is nearly as bad as.
- 1:05:00Speaker 2: That so travel spot not good For. Toronto for The,
- 1:05:03Speaker 2: cubs they're on the road and they're coming in From Saint. Louis,
- 1:05:07Speaker 2: yeah they're CROSSING i believe one time zone in this,
- 1:05:10Speaker 2: case but that's not nearly as. Bad, obviously The cubs
- 1:05:13Speaker 2: have been playing some fairly bad, baseball losing four of
- 1:05:16Speaker 2: their last six, games so they're a little bit of a.
- 1:05:19Speaker 2: Rut they lost that series To Saint. Louis they're probably
- 1:05:21Speaker 2: angry they lost On sunday night in front of AN espn,
- 1:05:25Speaker 2: crowd in front of a NATIONAL tv, audience so they
- 1:05:28Speaker 2: probably want to forget about. That the put that behind,
- 1:05:30Speaker 2: them and now they had yesterday to. Rest SO i think.
- 1:05:33Speaker 1: The travel spot does set up better for The cubs
- 1:05:35Speaker 1: than this.
- 1:05:35Speaker 2: One and we're looking At Ben brown on The mode
- 1:05:37Speaker 2: and you might be, saying, well why the hell WOULD
- 1:05:39Speaker 2: i want to go with this guy Against barrio so
- 1:05:41Speaker 2: as the way better on season. NUMBERS i Know Ben,
- 1:05:44Speaker 2: brown his numbers are terrible six point oh FOUR era
- 1:05:46Speaker 2: one point four for a. WHIP i think he's better
- 1:05:49Speaker 2: than his surface numbers. Suggests AND i KNOW i said
- 1:05:52Speaker 2: that in a game this year THAT i gave it
- 1:05:55Speaker 2: out and he lost the. GAME i understand. That BUT
- 1:05:58Speaker 2: i think at some point the other numbers that we're
- 1:06:01Speaker 2: looking at are gonna kind of take hold here me
- 1:06:02Speaker 2: Because brown he's a young guy that does have good
- 1:06:05Speaker 2: stuff and does have good ability to fool hitters at
- 1:06:07Speaker 2: the major league. Level, MAN i think at some point
- 1:06:09Speaker 2: we're gonna see it. HAPPEN i know his eerra on
- 1:06:12Speaker 2: the road is bad six point two. Nine his last,
- 1:06:15Speaker 2: start last couple of starts actually were not.
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: Bad gave up one ear and run apiece in each
- 1:06:20Speaker 1: of those.
- 1:06:20Speaker 2: Starts SO i know he didn't go five innings in
- 1:06:22Speaker 2: the game Against, cincinnati BUT i don't know if there
- 1:06:24Speaker 2: was a rain. Delay because he was pitching, well there
- 1:06:26Speaker 2: was no reason to really take him out of the
- 1:06:27Speaker 2: game after fifty six. Pitches although his pitch count has
- 1:06:30Speaker 2: been really limited over the last couple of, starts but
- 1:06:33Speaker 2: he was really efficient actually with his pitches.
- 1:06:35Speaker 1: And those starts for the most.
- 1:06:36Speaker 2: PART i went five innings against The, cubs but overall
- 1:06:39Speaker 2: the last nine inninges he only allowed two horn, runs
- 1:06:41Speaker 2: has nine, strikeouts no.
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: Walks the prior start he didn't walk anybody.
- 1:06:45Speaker 2: Either they gave up seven, runs six earned To Kansas,
- 1:06:49Speaker 2: city WHICH i know is not, good but he bounced
- 1:06:51Speaker 2: back from that. Nicely, man he was in a. Stretcher
- 1:06:53Speaker 2: he allowed a bunch of runs and That Kidsas city,
- 1:06:56Speaker 2: Start remember was the first start in a. Month he
- 1:07:00Speaker 2: had a pitch for a month because he got. BOMBED
- 1:07:01Speaker 2: i think in that game WHERE i gave out the
- 1:07:03Speaker 2: cups maybe or an under or something Against Saint.
- 1:07:06Speaker 1: LOUIS i think that.
- 1:07:07Speaker 2: Was one of those, games and he got absolutely. Rocked
- 1:07:09Speaker 2: it was a terrible start for.
- 1:07:10Speaker 1: Him but since he's come.
- 1:07:13Speaker 2: Back he had that one really shaky start in his
- 1:07:15Speaker 2: first game. Back maybe it was a little bit, nervous
- 1:07:17Speaker 2: but since then he's actually been pitching. Better so he's
- 1:07:19Speaker 2: trending in the right. Direction and you look at, this
- 1:07:22Speaker 2: this is What i'm talking. About his season stats one
- 1:07:24Speaker 2: hundred and four strikeouts in ninety two and thirtys pitching
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: with only twenty seven. Walks that's a really good ratio
- 1:07:29Speaker 2: a decent strikeout rate, too so it's, like why.
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: Is he doing this?
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: BAD i know he's allowed more than one hit per,
- 1:07:34Speaker 2: inning which is a little bit. Concerning sixteen home runs
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: is a little bit concerning as, well but still overall
- 1:07:40Speaker 2: hasn't really been that. Bad he allowed two on runs
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: in his first game, back but since then he's only allowed.
- 1:07:46Speaker 2: One So i'm Gonna i'm gonna go With Ben brown
- 1:07:48Speaker 2: in this, game, Man.
- 1:07:49Speaker 1: As ridiculous as this looks and as stupid.
- 1:07:52Speaker 2: As it might, Seem he's going up Against toronto, here
- 1:07:55Speaker 2: AND i Know toronto they've been hitting pretty, well BUT
- 1:07:58Speaker 2: i think they're playing a little bit above their pay.
- 1:07:59Speaker 2: Grade and they have never Seen Ben brown. Before so
- 1:08:02Speaker 2: again they think these young pitchers Like Ben, brown when
- 1:08:05Speaker 2: the opposing offense has never seen him, before they do
- 1:08:07Speaker 2: have a little bit of extra edge built in because
- 1:08:09Speaker 2: the opposing offense has to kind of figure him. Out
- 1:08:12Speaker 2: and we've seen that he has the ability to strike
- 1:08:14Speaker 2: guys out at the major league, level SO i think
- 1:08:15Speaker 2: that's a little bit of an edge To brown as.
- 1:08:17Speaker 2: WELL i think he might step it up for this, game,
- 1:08:19Speaker 2: Man and if he doesn't go that deep into the,
- 1:08:22Speaker 2: game we do still have The cub's bullpen is in
- 1:08:25Speaker 2: decent rest shape here in their bullpen's not that. Bad
- 1:08:28Speaker 2: So i'm still willing to do this up Against Jose.
- 1:08:31Speaker 2: BARRIOS i know he has the better numbers on the.
- 1:08:33Speaker 2: Season he's a consistent, pitcher a three point eight NINETY
- 1:08:36Speaker 2: ra one point two to seven.
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: Whip the whip's a little bit high for my. Liking
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: he is a little.
- 1:08:40Speaker 2: Bit worse at home four point three four E ra at,
- 1:08:42Speaker 2: home so you got to keep that in.
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: Mind his last couple of starts a little bit, dicey.
- 1:08:48Speaker 2: Man he failed to go five innings and one Against,
- 1:08:50Speaker 2: baltimore and then he only went five and a third last.
- 1:08:53Speaker 2: TIME i, know over those last nine and two thirds
- 1:08:56Speaker 2: innings he's allowed thirteen hits and he's allowed five and
- 1:08:59Speaker 2: runs over that, band which isn't that. Good, yeah he's
- 1:09:01Speaker 2: only walked one with eight strike, guns so strike out
- 1:09:03Speaker 2: walk ratio has been.
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: Okay but he's just struggling for a bit.
- 1:09:06Speaker 2: Now. Man the month Of july he had a five
- 1:09:08Speaker 2: point eight three er. Race he was kind of sliding
- 1:09:10Speaker 2: even THOUGH i know The jays have won a ton
- 1:09:12Speaker 2: of his recent starts have actually.
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: Won what is? That they won eleven of his last thirteen.
- 1:09:18Speaker 1: STARTS i get, that so they keep winning behind.
- 1:09:21Speaker 2: Him but he's facing a good line up, here, MAN
- 1:09:24Speaker 2: i don't think he's in the greatest form. Here and The,
- 1:09:26Speaker 2: jays excuse, me The. Jays The cubs HIT i always
- 1:09:30Speaker 2: say the wrong, team. Man The cubs hit borios pretty
- 1:09:32Speaker 2: well in seventy eight at bats thirteen to five strike
- 1:09:35Speaker 2: a walk ratio is fairly mediocre from But cubs have
- 1:09:38Speaker 2: a three point thirty three, average eight seventy three ops
- 1:09:40Speaker 2: and three different hitters of home and off.
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: Him horner getting a little bit horny. There tucker not
- 1:09:47Speaker 1: gonna be, tucking, man especially When i'm morning and Then Turner, TURNER.
- 1:09:52Speaker 2: I barely know, her so those guys all of home
- 1:09:56Speaker 2: runs off. Him So i'm gonna go with The cubs
- 1:09:57Speaker 2: in this.
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: Game. Man we're getting an underdog price.
- 1:09:59Speaker 2: Here OH i didn't show, it, sorry and plus one
- 1:10:02Speaker 2: oh five decent price, There cubs money. Line that's my only.
- 1:10:06Speaker 2: Play we're being very selective here, today and.
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: That's gonna do. It. MAN a little bit over an hour.
- 1:10:11Speaker 2: Today our ten minutes not too bad today for a
- 1:10:13Speaker 2: full baseball.
- 1:10:13Speaker 1: Slate thanks everybody for hanging.
- 1:10:15Speaker 2: Out learn To tone On, twitter learn a tone On,
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: instagram WHERE i put shorter form betting content. There once,
- 1:10:22Speaker 2: Again i'm not actually betting these, GAMES i remember Because
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: i'm trying to keep my finances in order for a
- 1:10:28Speaker 2: little bit. Though but we'll see what happens man on
- 1:10:31Speaker 2: a little bit of A i don't. KNOW i, Mean
- 1:10:33Speaker 2: i've been okay over.
- 1:10:34Speaker 1: The last week or.
- 1:10:35Speaker 2: SO i Think i'm up over the last week or
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: so with mostly baseball, plays so hopefully it.
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: Continues hopefully we get a win today on The Chicago.
- 1:10:41Speaker 2: Cubs what else we got better off dead of, course like,
- 1:10:45Speaker 2: subscribe you, know help me, Out let's get this channel
- 1:10:48Speaker 2: monetized on, YouTube help me with them listens and ratings On,
- 1:10:53Speaker 2: Apple apple podcasts And. Spotify that helps me out as.
- 1:10:56Speaker 2: Well so go check that out and coveringing you because
- 1:10:59Speaker 2: my Ukul lately project on, YouTube i'm pretty consistently posting something.
- 1:11:03Speaker 2: There and you can go To patreon dot com slash
- 1:11:05Speaker 2: and learn to toe and you get Extra yuke content
- 1:11:08Speaker 2: there at some of the levels as.
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: Well that's gonna do. It thanks. Everybody Happy, tuesday Titty Tuesday.
- 1:11:13Speaker 1: Baby let's say let's get The cubs today and that's
- 1:11:15Speaker 1: gonna do. It, peace