Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / Is Russia planning to attack a Nato country

Transcript

Is Russia planning to attack a Nato country · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: NATO faces the most dangerous and complex security environment in
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a generation.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: There is a real risk that drones or other types
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: countries on the eastern flank.
• 0:15
  Speaker 3: And this was the scene in Poland earlier on Thursday.
• 0:17
  Speaker 3: Air raid sirens after a Russian attack near the border
• 0:20
  Speaker 3: with Ukraine.
• 0:21
  Speaker 4: Let's not forget that there is, you know, there's arson,
• 0:24
  Speaker 4: there's sabotage almost every day.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: There is this background of a real concern, given the
• 0:30
  Speaker 3: escalation of Russia's full-scale invasion, of Russian aggression in Ukraine,
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: that it could spill over into Europe.
• 0:37
  Speaker 4: Is Russia planning to attack a NATO country? It's not
• 0:41
  Speaker 4: a new question, but it is something more and more
• 0:43
  Speaker 4: people are asking now. How likely is an attack from Russia?
• 0:47
  Speaker 4: What would it actually look like? And why are we
• 0:50
  Speaker 4: talking about it now? Well, over the next 10 minutes,
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: we'll answer all of those questions. But first, here was
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: a warning from Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: There is a real risk that drones or other types
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: of projectiles will enter the territory of one or several
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction. And
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: the official narration will be that it's an accident and
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: there is no reason for NATO to think about a response.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: The goal, as evidenced by an analysis of Russian actions
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: to date, is also to undermine NATO's integrity and, above all,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: to convince NATO member states, as we have already seen happen,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical. In other words,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: the premise is that no one would be willing to
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: die for Latvia or Lithuania when faced with mere incidents
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: rather than a formal declaration of war.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Well, the warning came as a massive attack on the
• 1:45
  Speaker 4: western part of Ukraine, very close to the Polish border,
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: took place, with Poland repeatedly forced to scramble its aircraft.
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: While Donald Tusk isn't the only European leader warning about Russia,
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: President Macron also has been sounding the alarm.
• 2:00
  Speaker 5: In recent weeks, the threat, in particular the hybrid Russian threat,
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: to Europeans and to France has intensified. I want to
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: say here that the nature of Russian aggression and its
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: threats in Europe is changing. The drone attack on a
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: passenger train from Kiev a few days ago, the attack
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: or attempted attack at Leipzig airport which failed, the firing
• 2:21
  Speaker 5: of flares near a Danish frigate, incursions into airspace of
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: several European countries and the increase in hostile acts in
• 2:28
  Speaker 5: most of our countries.
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: The head of NATO, Mark Rutter, says the use of
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: drones along Poland's border with Ukraine shows that Vladimir Putin
• 2:37
  Speaker 4: is becoming increasingly desperate.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It's clearly an example of increasingly reckless behavior by Russia
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: and its president, but also evidence of him being increasingly desperate.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: He knows and sees that he is losing over 40,000
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: of his own people, dead or seriously wounded a month
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: leading up to the 1.2 million. The Russians have now
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: lost or seriously wounded since the start of the war.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Evidence that we have to be serious about what Russia
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: is doing, but also acknowledging that this is desperation. It's
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: also panicking.
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: Well, the warnings come after increasingly hostile rhetoric from Moscow
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: and what appears to be a sabotage campaign across Europe
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: this summer with military and defence sites as the prime targets.
• 3:27
  Speaker 6: On the 4th of August, the first drone carrying an
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: explosive device at Leipzig airport in Germany is discovered.
• 3:34
  Speaker 7: Six days later, a major fire breaks out at a
• 3:36
  Speaker 7: defence warehouse in Bulgaria.
• 3:38
  Speaker 6: Previous blasts at the company's facilities were investigated for links
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: to Russia.
• 3:43
  Speaker 7: On the 13th of August, a fire at KNDS Ammo
• 3:46
  Speaker 7: outside Rome triggers a large explosion.
• 3:48
  Speaker 6: The local prosecutor is looking into outside interference.
• 3:52
  Speaker 7: Two days later, a robotics factory in Tallinn that supplies
• 3:55
  Speaker 7: drones to Ukraine goes up in flames.
• 3:57
  Speaker 6: On the 25th of August, an arson attack on a
• 3:59
  Speaker 6: Ukrainian-owned drone manufacturer is narrowly avoided.
• 4:03
  Speaker 7: And on the 30th of August, two more fires are
• 4:06
  Speaker 7: reported in Poland.
• 4:07
  Speaker 6: One of them was an attack on a drone producer.
• 4:10
  Speaker 7: A masked man was caught throwing incendiary devices on CCTV.
• 4:13
  Speaker 6: The Polish Prime Minister called it a continuation of Russia's
• 4:17
  Speaker 6: escalatory activities.
• 4:19
  Speaker 7: A month after drones packed with explosives were found at
• 4:21
  Speaker 7: Leipzig airport, Germany declared that Russia was responsible.
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: Putin, as always, demanded proof and his officials called the
• 4:28
  Speaker 6: accusation absurd.
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: So, how likely is a Russian attack? Here's our Eastern
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: Europe correspondent, Sarah Rainsford, with her assessment.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: I think it's important to be clear that Russia has
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: been attacking NATO countries for a long time. So the
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: question is less what Russia intends and more how NATO
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: could respond. My own reporting has focused quite heavily in
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: recent years on a number of plots linked to Russia
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: directly to cause very serious damage here inside Europe. And
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: that includes a parcel bomb plot, incendiary devices in parcels
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: that were sent all over Europe. Now, one of those
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: parcels is went off just before it was loaded onto
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: a plane to the UK. The consequences could have been catastrophic.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: And I now know from my sources in that investigation
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: that there is a direct link to the discovery of
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: drones with explosives at Leipzig airport this summer. So very,
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: very serious and clearly aimed. at NATO countries, allies in
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: particular of Ukraine. So I think Russia's intent is clear.
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: Russia's potential to escalate is also clear. And the question
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: has always been about how NATO is prepared to respond.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: Well, attacks on military and defence targets are not new.
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: It's the concentration of cases that is causing alarm. Some
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: reports suggested that the visit by the CIA chief to
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: Moscow in August was in part to warn Russia against
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: a possible attack on a member of the Euro-Atlantic military alliance.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: The Kremlin, though, has repeatedly dismissed warnings about Russian plans
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: to attack NATO as hysteria. But something else NATO has
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: been grappling with is the fact that the US President
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: Donald Trump has not been in lockstep with them throughout
• 6:15
  Speaker 4: the Ukrainian war, as Russia expert Timothy Ash now explains.
• 6:20
  Speaker 8: Well, I think one of the problems is the Trump
• 6:21
  Speaker 8: administration has been pretty soft in signalling about its support
• 6:25
  Speaker 8: for this Article 5 policy. defense for Europe. And I
• 6:29
  Speaker 8: think the Russians are taking advantage of that and trying
• 6:32
  Speaker 8: to exploit that and expose divisions, et cetera. I mean,
• 6:36
  Speaker 8: what's really important for the Russians is the Ukrainian deep
• 6:38
  Speaker 8: strike drone attacks and missile attacks are increasingly successful. You know,
• 6:42
  Speaker 8: they're hitting, you know, these online retailers, refineries continue to
• 6:46
  Speaker 8: be attacked. There were shortages in Russia. Russia faces elections
• 6:51
  Speaker 8: coming up this weekend. And You know, I think Putin
• 6:54
  Speaker 8: is nervous and vulnerable and, you know, he wants to
• 6:58
  Speaker 8: force Europe to pull back in its support for Ukraine
• 7:01
  Speaker 8: and surrender Ukraine to Russia.
• 7:04
  Speaker 4: So what could a potential Russian attack actually look like?
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: Here's Sarah again to explain.
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: I don't think Vladimir Putin is suicidal. So I don't
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: think he's about to launch a missile directly into the
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: heart of Warsaw. But I do think he's going to
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: continue testing the West and trying to prove that NATO
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: as an alliance is weak and that it will not
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: stand up to Russia as it says it will. So
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: I think Vladimir Putin is now under extreme pressure at
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: home like he never.
• 7:32
  Speaker 8: Has been before.
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: He's clearly escalating war inside Ukraine. And I think the
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: potential for aggression beyond Ukraine's borders certainly is at its
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: highest level that we've seen. I think Russia will go
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: on goading, will go on testing, will go on pushing
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: the limits. That includes in terms of sabotage attacks and
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: the sort of below threshold aggression that we've seen in
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: recent years. In terms of a military strike, though, I
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: do think because of the political context, what Poland is
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: talking about, a possible drone or military missile strike on
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: one of Ukraine's allies that Russia then calls an accident,
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: that does seem more likely now than ever before. And
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: what was once unthinkable, I think, in recent years has
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: become more and more possible. as Russia is under increasing pressure.
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: So a growing number of European leaders warning that Russia
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: may be preparing attacks to test their commitment to supporting Ukraine.
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: How worried should we be? Back to Timothy Ash for
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: his assessment.
• 8:35
  Speaker 8: Well, I think very concerned. I mean, I was just
• 8:37
  Speaker 8: thinking this is probably the most serious situation in Western
• 8:42
  Speaker 8: Moscow relations or the Kremlin relations. Since the 1980s, remember
• 8:45
  Speaker 8: the kind of cruise missile crises back then, Russia is
• 8:48
  Speaker 8: testing our limit. They're probing almost every day now we
• 8:52
  Speaker 8: have a drone sortie over NATO territory. Numerous munition dumps
• 8:59
  Speaker 8: in NATO territory have been blown up in recent months.
• 9:04
  Speaker 8: And every time NATO doesn't respond, I think Russia takes
• 9:08
  Speaker 8: strength from that.
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: And that's all you need to know about the growing
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: threat of hybrid attacks from Russia.