Latest / Brian Thomas / M$ney Monday with Brian James

Transcript

M$ney Monday with Brian James · Brian Thomas

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  Speaker 1: Arc D talk Station eight oh six.
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  Speaker 2: Hippitybob KRCD talk station Thomas right here, wishing him Redy
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  Speaker 2: very happy Monday listener. Launch the Works Pizza Co downtown
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  Speaker 2: Lowland on Wednesday, and is Monday, and it is this
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  Speaker 2: time when we always talk to Monday Monday, Brian James. Monday,
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  Speaker 2: Monday is the time of week and thanks to all
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  Speaker 2: we're financial flowing now Brian James to talk about these topics,
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  Speaker 2: most notably uh the impact on the conflict going on
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  Speaker 2: the Middle East called a war. If you want on
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  Speaker 2: the market, Brian James, welcome back to the Morning show.
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  Speaker 2: I'm staring at the Wall Street Journal cover or front
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  Speaker 2: page here Dow Jones looking down a little over a
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  Speaker 2: point same thing with SMP five hundred nasdacked down a
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  Speaker 2: little bit more north of a point and a half,
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  Speaker 2: although really not as bad as I would have thought
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  Speaker 2: the markets would be in terms of futures. Welcome back
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  Speaker 2: to my friend. It's good heaving you on to talk
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  Speaker 2: about these things.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, wish we had happier headlines to talk about.
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  Speaker 3: You know, here we go again with a little bit
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  Speaker 3: of a war in the Middle East, and yeah, I
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  Speaker 3: think we can go ahead and fairly call it a war.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not sure what else happens over there so so far.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, like you said, nothing surprising is happening with regard
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  Speaker 3: to the economics and markets and so on and so forth.
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  Speaker 3: The stock markets are down because, as we know, we
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  Speaker 3: don't like the lack of visibility. That's really the challenge
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  Speaker 3: that the market faces every time there's headlines like this.
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  Speaker 3: And of course, as you would not be surprised to hear,
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  Speaker 3: oil futures are up about nine percent. Fill up now
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  Speaker 3: if you haven't already, But I have a feeling that
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  Speaker 3: overnight the price isn't the gas pump changed anyway, you
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  Speaker 3: may have missed your window. Surely, don't need to make
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  Speaker 3: light of any of this. Obviously, there's a lot going
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  Speaker 3: on here, and this is these are scary times. They
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  Speaker 3: were scary before this happened, and they just got a
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  Speaker 3: little bit worse.
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  Speaker 1: But as far as what the.
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  Speaker 3: Economic impact and all that stuff is, right now, we're
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  Speaker 3: kind of following the pattern down or oil up, stocks down.
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  Speaker 1: With the exception of the defense sector.
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  Speaker 3: We're seeing companies like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, all those
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  Speaker 3: kind of companies are having a good day. Unfortunately, because
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  Speaker 3: of the situation that we're all.
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  Speaker 2: In military industrial complex, the whole world's clamoring for weapons
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  Speaker 2: and missiles, and now they're all being dedicated and committed
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  Speaker 2: to the Middle East, which presents problem for a lot
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  Speaker 2: of countries out there, but also for US in our
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  Speaker 2: long term potentially long term involvement in the conflict. Lots
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  Speaker 2: of reporting about our stockpiles being depleted. So there you go.
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  Speaker 2: Maybe you do need to invest in the military industrial complex.
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  Speaker 2: At least you get a return on your investment, notwithstanding
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  Speaker 2: the grave reality of why can I ask you a question,
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  Speaker 2: Brian James, I we spin the clock back, but basically
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  Speaker 2: a moment in time, Opek had a stranglehold on us.
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  Speaker 2: I remember the embargo back in the seventies. I remember
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  Speaker 2: the price gasling going up. I remember gasoline lines. We
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  Speaker 2: didn't have much by way of domestic production back then.
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  Speaker 2: But if, unfortunately we do now, do you think that
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  Speaker 2: the fact that we do have so much more production
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  Speaker 2: of our own, either in our backyard or maybe like
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  Speaker 2: the Canadian oil fields, or perhaps because we took over
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  Speaker 2: ven as well as production, that that has softened the
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  Speaker 2: blow of what might been more the worse economic news
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  Speaker 2: this morning.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's really one of the main reasons,
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  Speaker 3: because it used to be kind of bipolar.
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  Speaker 1: There were two teams. There was OPEC and everybody else.
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  Speaker 3: But that's not really the the question anymore, because the
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  Speaker 3: US has opened up a lot of its own oil
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  Speaker 3: reserves due to law changes, technological changes with regard to
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  Speaker 3: fracking and so forth.
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  Speaker 1: So you have a little bit of history here.
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  Speaker 3: So so OPEC still represents about forty percent historically of
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  Speaker 3: total crude output, about eighty percent of proven oil reserves
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  Speaker 3: around its members there, but it's not the sole price
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  Speaker 3: center anymore. Global supply also includes a lot of oil
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  Speaker 3: out of the US, USL Brazil, Canada and other non
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  Speaker 3: OPEC producers.
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  Speaker 1: So there's just more involvement.
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  Speaker 3: That the auction got bigger, there are more bidders out
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  Speaker 3: there to affect the market. It's not just everybody sitting
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  Speaker 3: around waiting for OPEC to tell us what to do.
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  Speaker 2: Basic economic principles supply and demand, greater supply. Actually this
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  Speaker 2: results in less volatility, which is a good thing. Question
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  Speaker 2: considering this one element the price of oil and it's
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  Speaker 2: global impact, that of course impacts the markets because we
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  Speaker 2: of course have international investments through a four to one
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  Speaker 2: case as well. But I wasn't shocked. But when you
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  Speaker 2: read the numbers, eighty percent of global oil consumption and
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  Speaker 2: almost one quarter of global seaborne oil trade goes right
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  Speaker 2: there through the Strait of Hormuz, twenty one miles wide,
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  Speaker 2: with shipping lanes only two miles across in each direction.
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  Speaker 2: It's tight, it's close to Iran, it's right there, and
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  Speaker 2: by all accounts this morning, it's been effectively shut down.
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  Speaker 2: They're concerned about minds being placed and have all the
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  Speaker 2: problems will go along with that. So you're looking at
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  Speaker 2: a dense area there in terms of global oil shipment.
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  Speaker 2: But it's not necessarily US that might be impact because
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  Speaker 2: my understanding is, and I've read it this morning, eighty
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  Speaker 2: four percent of the crude and eighty three percent of
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  Speaker 2: LNG goes through the Strait is going for Asia, China, India, Japan,
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  Speaker 2: and South Korea. Now might their economies be impacted by
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  Speaker 2: the shutdown of the straits too?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, but everything is still connected.
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  Speaker 3: As much as we you know, the US is starting
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  Speaker 3: to take steps back away from globalization, we still have
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  Speaker 3: customers all over the world. So if their economies are
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  Speaker 3: are interrupted, then that's going to affect ultimately the US.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Well, so you know, there's really three paths that were
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  Speaker 3: watching here. The first would be, I would say a
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  Speaker 3: contained conflict, which means it just this, this is what
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  Speaker 3: we've seen in the past. The strikes remain focused on,
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  Speaker 3: you know, on the military types of targets, infrastructure stays undamaged,
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  Speaker 3: and the horror moves stays open. Oil could still go
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  Speaker 3: a little bit higher, of course, fear logistics is always
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  Speaker 3: a thing, but that premium could go away, as you know,
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  Speaker 3: at once the initial shock settles out and the oil
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  Speaker 3: flows proved to not have been erupted. So if that happens,
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  Speaker 3: the US economy will see it mostly through gasoline price increases,
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  Speaker 3: which we've been through this before, and of course more
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  Speaker 3: talk about inflation and so forth gets a little worse.
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  Speaker 3: The bigger problem is is, as you kind of hinted
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  Speaker 3: out already, is infrastructure. So if Iran is not able
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  Speaker 3: to export as efficiently and quickly as they used to
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  Speaker 3: be able to and maybe possibly you know permanently that
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  Speaker 3: that's of course going to have a real loss of
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  Speaker 3: supply Iran. As you mentioned, Iran's exports are still pretty concentrated,
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  Speaker 3: so even if that's targeted, it's gonna make a lot
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  Speaker 3: of difference because of that whole global supply chain. This
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  Speaker 3: results in of course higher crew prices that would hang
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  Speaker 3: around a little longer. That's headline inflation. And again this
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  Speaker 3: is just this just makes it a little bit worse
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  Speaker 3: than the idea that this is a quieter disruption than
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  Speaker 3: we've normally seen. But really I think the big thing
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  Speaker 3: is in anything that's going to tie up the horror
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  Speaker 3: moves for more than a week, that's really kind of
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  Speaker 3: the cutoff point where we will be in somewhat uncharted waters.
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  Speaker 1: That's going to have a more a.
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  Speaker 3: Bigger impact possibly on macroeconomics, meaning simply the bigger picture,
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  Speaker 3: not just a disruption, not just anger at the gas pump,
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  Speaker 3: something that's going to trickle through to more industry.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll be watching this over the next week or
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  Speaker 1: so to see what the final impact is.
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  Speaker 2: Well, in your comments about globals, I mean oil is
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  Speaker 2: expressed in global supply, and if you take iron's global
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  Speaker 2: supply out of it, you are obviously going to end
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  Speaker 2: up with less on the market. Of course, more increased
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  Speaker 2: price per barrel. I've read as high as one hundred
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  Speaker 2: and ten, although I've seen as low as well. It
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  Speaker 2: may spike to eighty. So there's this huge range of
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  Speaker 2: may might and speculation and tea leaf reading what we'll
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  Speaker 2: deal with when we come with it. But in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the percentage of global output, do you know offhand
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  Speaker 2: how much Iran represents?
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  Speaker 3: In terms of that, it's significant enough that it's going
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  Speaker 3: to leave a mark. But like you said before, they're
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  Speaker 3: not the only provider anymore. So we can look though
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  Speaker 3: at history and see what the impact has been over time,
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  Speaker 3: and this speaks directly to that question.
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  Speaker 1: So in nineteen seventy.
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  Speaker 3: Three, we had the Arab Israeli war, oil prices quadrupled
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  Speaker 3: after OPEC put the embargo in place. Now that was,
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  Speaker 3: of course before our current situation where there are more
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  Speaker 3: players in the oil game. Yes, nineteen seventy nine, that
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  Speaker 3: was the Iranian Revolution and the oil prices roughly doubled then,
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  Speaker 3: pretty significant disruptions to production, and that played a role
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  Speaker 3: in what we like to talk about here all the
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  Speaker 3: time in terms of stagflation and the FED tightening stance.
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  Speaker 1: Back then then we moved to.
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  Speaker 3: Nineteen ninety oil prices doubled during the Gulf War, but
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  Speaker 3: the US led coalition was able to step in and
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  Speaker 3: prevent that from having a larger impact in two thousand
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  Speaker 3: and three. After nine to eleven, oil prices kind of
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  Speaker 3: stayed relatively modest increases right before the invasion, and oil
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  Speaker 3: prices actually fell right after because supply I was not
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  Speaker 3: severely disrupted during that war, believe or not, so this
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  Speaker 3: can happen without disrupting the flow of oil. We'll just
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  Speaker 3: see if all parties want to worry about.
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  Speaker 2: That well, And all I can interject is, thank God
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  Speaker 2: for drill, baby, drill. We are clearly in a much
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  Speaker 2: better position than we were even a couple of decades ago.
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  Speaker 2: Brian James will continue. We're going to find out this
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  Speaker 2: morning about artificial intelligence driving volatility, that and more with
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  Speaker 2: Brian James stick around, be right back after I mentioned
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  Speaker 2: speaking of energy USA insulation. Actually I believe it was
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  Speaker 2: my son just the other day talking about his friends
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  Speaker 2: complaining about these skyrocketing energy bills. Station eight nineteen fifty
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  Speaker 2: five kar CEV Talk Station Happy Monday, Monday Monday with
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  Speaker 2: Brian James, Muller Financial pivoting over to something that's driving
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  Speaker 2: a lot of fear, and I will admit to having
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  Speaker 2: a little bit of fear about artificial intelligence myself, Brian James.
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  Speaker 2: Don't understand it well enough, but I do know it
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  Speaker 2: may very well impact the well a lot of people's jobs,
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  Speaker 2: a lot of people worried about job security. But what
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  Speaker 2: is driving the volatility about which you want to talk
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  Speaker 2: about this morning, Brian James.
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  Speaker 1: Well, there's a few pieces to this, right.
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  Speaker 3: So first off, AI is of course, just like anything,
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  Speaker 3: is also playing a role in the algorithmic program trading,
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  Speaker 3: so it's having a direct impact on transactions that do
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  Speaker 3: drive volatility in the market. We shouldn't be shocked at that.
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  Speaker 3: Every time there's a new technological innovation, it tends to
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  Speaker 3: find its way into the place where people make most
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  Speaker 3: of their money, which is the stock market. So that's definitely,
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  Speaker 3: of course a factor here, but also just the overall
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  Speaker 3: idea that right now AI is the catalyst driving the market.
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  Speaker 3: So there's always a catalyst pushing the market.
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  Speaker 1: In some direction, right.
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  Speaker 3: So the original Internet wave in the late nineties, when
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  Speaker 3: Yahoo and Google were a thing, that that was the catalyst.
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  Speaker 3: Then then we had real estate was a catalyst in
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  Speaker 3: the run up to the two thousand and eight disaster,
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  Speaker 3: and then it became mobile technology, social media, so on and
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  Speaker 3: so forth. Now the flavor of the week is artificial intelligence,
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  Speaker 3: and it pushes the markets in both directions. So let's take,
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  Speaker 3: for example, a week ago. I'm gonna read you two
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  Speaker 3: headlines here from recent ups and downs in the market.
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  Speaker 3: So this came out about six days ago, little less
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  Speaker 3: than a week. US stocks rise after getting a reminder
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  Speaker 3: of AI's potential upsides.
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  Speaker 1: That's an ap news headline.
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  Speaker 3: Three days ago, US stocks sink and oil prices rise
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  Speaker 3: as worries about AI inflation and possible war hit Wall Street.
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  Speaker 3: So AI is good news and bad news pay apparently
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  Speaker 3: depending on the mood that you're in.
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  Speaker 2: Brian Thomas, well, in terms of I think about it
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  Speaker 2: in terms of investing, and my son is involved in
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  Speaker 2: some trading and he's actually been doing quite well, but
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  Speaker 2: you know, he's he gets something, he's in for like
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  Speaker 2: five minutes and he's out, he gets his five percent hit,
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  Speaker 2: he goes home, and it really works. Who's going to
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  Speaker 2: be doing, I mean, is artificial intelligence is going to
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  Speaker 2: be making the sort of picking of stocks and the
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  Speaker 2: selection of stocks along those lines. Is it going to be.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, I hate to say this out loud, but
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  Speaker 2: removing you from an area of necessity Brian.
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  Speaker 3: James, Well, that's not what we do anyway. So yeah,
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  Speaker 3: we have very different approach in terms of that. What
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  Speaker 3: you're talking about is day trading there and already, yeah,
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  Speaker 3: that's definitely not mean we're we're running the other way
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  Speaker 3: from that approach. My role is to basically help people pull,
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  Speaker 3: drag them back from the one tree that they're staring at,
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  Speaker 3: so that you see the entire forest of their situation,
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  Speaker 3: figure out what their resources are and frankly what they
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  Speaker 3: can get away with in retirement in terms of timing
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  Speaker 3: and the cash flow and all that other fun stuff.
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  Speaker 1: I am not.
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  Speaker 3: Worried about what stock XYZ is going to do in
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  Speaker 3: the next five minutes versus ABC. Nothing wrong with that approach,
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  Speaker 3: it's just a different I don't think there's a lot
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  Speaker 3: of value in providing that to other people because there's
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  Speaker 3: just too much you know, there's too much unpredictability in it.
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  Speaker 1: And that's not what people tend to worry about anyway.
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  Speaker 3: It's all it all tends to be about how do
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  Speaker 3: I take care of myself and my family? Do what
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  Speaker 3: I want to do without being changed at a desk
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  Speaker 3: for the rest of my life at a little differ approach.
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  Speaker 2: And I guess the other component is you and I.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think anybody really knows how this is ultimately
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  Speaker 2: going to shake out. It's new technology, and quite often
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  Speaker 2: it takes time for all of us to adjust to it,
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  Speaker 2: and eventually the new technology makes way for new types
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  Speaker 2: of jobs. And we since we can't necessarily envision where
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  Speaker 2: these new industries and air is are right now when
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  Speaker 2: this new technology is rolling out, it's almost like it's
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  Speaker 2: amazing that we end up landing on our feet down
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  Speaker 2: the road, given the gloom and doom stories we read
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  Speaker 2: about the new technology. When we've been through this before.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and this isn't new, And just because we're talking
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  Speaker 3: about it this morning doesn't mean we're we are calling
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  Speaker 3: the attention of the smart money in the world that
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  Speaker 3: they should be looking at AI and figuring how to
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  Speaker 3: how to use it in money management scenarios.
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  Speaker 1: It's already happening. It's been happening for a while.
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  Speaker 3: So there are AI driven trading systems that will literally
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  Speaker 3: look across the entire order book, across all exchanges and
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  Speaker 3: they're looking for inefficiencies. I can buy something at this
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  Speaker 3: store and send and sell it over here at this
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  Speaker 3: other store and keep the difference.
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  Speaker 1: That's really what the that's arbitrage.
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  Speaker 3: Basically, AI can do it a lot more quickly than
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  Speaker 3: humanize and even you know some of the past technological
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  Speaker 3: tools we've out they had out there, trades get executed
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  Speaker 3: in milliseconds. Microstructural changes come around and uh, and those
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  Speaker 3: are reacted to instantaneously, far different than when human beings
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  Speaker 3: are the only ones pulling the levers.
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  Speaker 2: Well speed at which we trade now, which you just
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  Speaker 2: pointed out microseconds, is that ultimately, in the end, that's
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  Speaker 2: an improvement that's working to our advantage. That it doesn't
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  Speaker 2: take you communicating with some guy on a trading floor,
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  Speaker 2: swap and paper with another guy on the trading floor
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  Speaker 2: and engaging this longer process to get the trade done right.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, and then for those of you thinking, Okay, I'm
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: just a regular Joe, I want to take advantage of this,
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  Speaker 3: how do I do it and keep my day job?
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  Speaker 1: Well, you kind of really don't. Long gone are.
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  Speaker 3: The days where your broker would call you, leave you
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  Speaker 3: a message on a pink slip of paper. Hey, what
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  Speaker 3: do you think about X y Z call me back. No,
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  Speaker 3: we're down to microseconds. Nobody cares what the end to
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  Speaker 3: customer thinks of it. It's just going to happen because
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  Speaker 3: it has to happen that quickly. We don't get the
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  Speaker 3: the pleasure or the opportunity to review and take a
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  Speaker 3: breath and think.
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  Speaker 1: That's where AI is leading us away from that.
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  Speaker 3: Human moment where a brain needs to stop and take
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  Speaker 3: a breath and think about it.
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  Speaker 1: I'm not sure that's all good, but that's what this
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  Speaker 1: is about.
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  Speaker 2: Speed speed, speed, speed, speed, speed, and just starting a
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  Speaker 2: shout out in my head. Say with the frozen orange
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  Speaker 2: Jews market trading places, those days are gone, right and.
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  Speaker 3: The Gijo doll with the kung fu grip, yes, is
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  Speaker 3: long and long in the past.
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  Speaker 1: That's right. Another good one. It's just shy of eight
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  Speaker 1: twenty five.
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  Speaker 2: We'll continue. We got one more to talk about everything
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  Speaker 2: that's happened in the world. But look, the economy is
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: remaining resilient. That's got k the talk station A twenty
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: eight fifty five K see he talks station Brigga McDonald
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: from the Hudson and Suit on energy. What the Middle
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: East conflict's going to do to that and for you
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: and I we talked a little about that with Brian
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: James on the phone. Right now, all word financials, Brian James,
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  Speaker 2: let's pivot over to some good news. I guess Brian,
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  Speaker 2: we got a resilient economy in spite of all the
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: chaos going on in the world.
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  Speaker 3: Well, we do have the ability to see you usually
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: passed the chaos a little bit, and that's why, as
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: we were talking about earlier, the market doesn't completely collapse
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: with the kind of scary headlines we can get over
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: the weekend. At the end of the day, cooler heads
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: do prevail and we realize that while we do have conflicts,
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: money still moves in a circle and we'll continue to
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: do so throughout We saw, you know, you can go
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: back through history and figure out in World War Two
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: the stock market wasn't down, didn't It didn't just drop
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: off a cliff until it hit zero and then sit
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: there until the war was over and then we moved on.
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: That's not how it works. Money moves in a circle
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: no matter what. So we do have the ability to
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: still look at the economy and just recognize that even
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: if we're on somewhat of a wartime footing. That doesn't
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: mean that we need to start making decisions drastically differently.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: Well, what about producer inflation? What about consumer confidence and
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: jobless claims and all these things. I know mortgage rates
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: have come down, yeah, and these so we're.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: In a somewhat good situation with regard to all this.
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: There's always there's always something to be scared about. But
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: you mentioned like mortgage and mortgage rates are moving in
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: a positive direction. They are down over the last couple
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: three years. If you're somebody who was stuck with an
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: eight percent mortgage and you were mad that you had
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: to sign on the dotted line with that interest rate
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: on the form, well you might want to start paying
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: attention because we are getting down into the lower sixes
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: and it may be time for you to pull the
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: trigger on that refinance. People have to move, and that
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: that's not a choice that everybody gets. So it does
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: seem that housing situations are starting to loosen up a
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: little bit in terms of those who didn't wanted to
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: hold off for a better situation are now starting to
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: pull the trigger.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: So we're starting to see a.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: Little more flexibility there in a little bit more of
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: a buyer's market than we've seen lately.
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: Well, that may be the case, but the home prices
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: themselves have not dropped. I mean, I would imagine with
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: a lower interest rate, the prices might increase, given that
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: more people might be inclined to jump into the market.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Oh yeah, this is definitely not about pricing. This is
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: about not the price of the house itself. It's the
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: overall cost of owning it. But with interest rates having dropped,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: you know, if you look at the percentage decrease, we're
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: actually down about fifteen percent on interest rates. You go
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: down from eight to you know, six and a half,
• 16:41
  Speaker 3: then that's a larger chunk than you might be thinking.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: So the monthly payment can be a little more palatable
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: now to somebody who knew they were going to have
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: to move in the relatively short term. So therefore where
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: they weren't going to pull the trigger a couple of
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: years ago, we'll just grin and Barrett with this house,
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: we're not really thrilled with anymore. Now we're in a
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: situation where people are saying, Okay, it's just time to
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: do this. It may not be perfect, but it's better
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: than it was, so let's go ahead and make the decision,
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: all right.
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: In terms of jobless claims, I would think that, well,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: given AI it's going to perplace everybody's job and replace
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: it with a computer algorithm, that might be a little
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: concern on that one. But where are we in terms
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: of the current jobless situation.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: Well, late late February, initial jobless claims rose to about
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: two hundred and twelve thousand, up about four thousand from
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: the week before. That was below expectations. That was the
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: bumpy one. We got a little bit not too long ago.
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: The four week moving average slightly hired to about two
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: hundred and twenty thousand, So jobless claims relatively stable in
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: recent weeks. Now we'll see, we've got these these headlines
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: we just got over the weekend. We'll see if that
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: has a direct impact. I think it's going to take
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: a while for that to trickle all the way through
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: the economy to the jobless numbers. But at the same time,
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: people are paying attention and we're going to be thinking.
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: Businesses are going to be making big decisions based on visibility.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: This is how we let off this whole this.
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: Morning was the market absolutely hates lack of visibility. Not
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: scary headlines, We can handle that. It's the fact that
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: we can't really get a good feel and kind of
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: predict with any level of confidence what's coming. So therefore
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: companies tend to pull in and just get real conservative
• 18:12
  Speaker 3: in the shorter run. Here we'll see if that holds true.
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: Well, I know everybody's got the memos. An election year
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: in November, Oh my god, And inflation is big concern.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Democrats are screaming affordability, affordability, affordability, and that may be
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: on the rise inflation, just looking at the potential increase
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: in the price of oil, which obviously impacts literally everything
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: that we do. But where's inflation? At least as of
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: this moment in time.
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: Inflation is tame right now, we're not We're still stuck
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: at that kind of happy place, happy ish place where
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: we would really prefer, we would super like it to
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: be around two percent, but we're stuck around.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Three And we've been in.
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: This range for a long time now, and so I
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: think all bets are off now for what we thought
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: we knew over the past several months. We need a
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: little bit of time to let it soak through with
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: regard to what is what are oil prices? Well, what
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: kind of impact is that going to have? And frankly,
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: how long is this gonna last? I think the real
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: difference here it's not conflict in the Middle East, because
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: that's been around for a while, that ebbs and flows.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: It's the straight hoh horror moves. I think that's the
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: big difference.
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: We have not had a situation where it has been
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: closed off for a period for a long period of time,
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: So that's gonna be one of the big questions we
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: have to answer over the next couple of weeks.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Well, in spite of the whaling and nashing of teeth
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: about inflation, generally speaking, I see that the consumer confidence
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: has actually risen.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that is because, you know, as
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: I talk to you know, clients every day, we see
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: these headlines. We're trying to plan around it, and people
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: react differently than they did in the you know, I've
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: been doing this for thirty years. People react differently now
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: than they used to. Used to be, these headlines were
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: absolutely deal killers and we just simply can't handle any
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: kind of volatility at all.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: It's just taken for granted. This is no fun the stinks,
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: but I've seen it before many, many times. You know,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of people who are, you know,
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: maybe near retirement age. Now we're brought up during the
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: eighty in the nineties when there really weren't any scary
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: headlines at all, and now ever since the turn of
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: the century, it's been every couple three years we have
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: some showstopper of a headline that should terrify. So I
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: think we're becoming a little more numb to it. Collech
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: is a good thing, exactly, We've got a little thicker
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: skin and we are we are able to react, let
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: things recover, and then react versus reacting to the initial headline.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Well that's a great development.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: You know.
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: Clickbait is what fuels those outrageous headlines, and so people
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: are finally coming around to the notion that just because
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: the headline is, oh my god, we're all gonna die.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: Look back at history. No, that didn't happen, did it.
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: Maybe exempt from or maybe you know, maybe maybe we're
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: just not as you know, touchy as we used to be.
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: Hopefully we're acting. Yeah, well that's I was going a
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: little more positive, but you said it.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: I didn't. Brian Jays.
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: Thank you for joining the program every Monday to do
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: money Monday, look forward to next Monday, and another another
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: informative topic was in