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College Football Bowl Games Dec 17-23 Spread Picks & Predictions Part 2 | 9 games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: On today's show, we're going over nine college football bowl
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: games from the twenty twenty five season and we're gonna
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: make some predictions for the games from December seventeenth through
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: December twenty third. Welcome in Winning Cures Everything. It's a
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seekers at Gary
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: WC on all the different socials, most active on X.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Of course you want to reach out the old school way,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: you can do that as well, Gary at Winning curesverything
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: dot com. And if you like the spreadsheets and the
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: stat sheets and whatnot that we're going to go over today,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: you can get those over at buy Me a Coffee
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: dot com slash Winning Cures. Make sure that you join
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: up over there. It supports the show. It's five bucks
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: a month, fifty bucks for the year. So go ahead,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: uh and knock that bad boy out on the season.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: All the picks that I have made on this show
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  Speaker 1: this year platform two sixteen, two thirteen and two not bad,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: not awful, not great, But that's a lot of picks,
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: So it is what it is. I give you my
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  Speaker 1: stats and then we go from there. Today we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: be using Action Network's Bowl Injury List, Bowl Opt Out list,
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  Speaker 1: bowl notes list to go along with the stats. So
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: we're gonna jump into everything today. Game number one, Wednesday,
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  Speaker 1: December seventeenth. This is the Staff DNA Cure Bowl in Orlando,
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  Speaker 1: Old Dominion against South Florida four pm Central time on ESBN.
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  Speaker 1: USF is a three and a half point favorite total
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  Speaker 1: of fifty three and a half and this thing opened
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  Speaker 1: at six and a half with a total of fifty
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: seven on it. It's gonna be kind of harder to
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: use numbers on this one because Old Dominion starting quarterback
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  Speaker 1: Clton Joseph he is going to sit out the bowl game,
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  Speaker 1: so that means the freshman Quinn Hennicle would get the start.
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  Speaker 1: He started one game against Arkansas State. He ran for
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: over two hundred yards there. USF quarterback Byron Brown he
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  Speaker 1: is also opting out of the ball game. He's going
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  Speaker 1: to serve as an assistant. So the senior quarterback, Gaston
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Moore is going to start. Now, they do have a
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: freshman quarterback there that might get some playing time. From
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: what I understand, he is the one that they seem
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  Speaker 1: to believe is the better of the two. Gaston Moore
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  Speaker 1: is a senior, so he's going to get the start.
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  Speaker 1: That doesn't necessarily mean he's going to play the whole game.
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  Speaker 1: Alex golesh USF head coach. He is headed to Auburn
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  Speaker 1: along with the offensive coordinator, Jewel Gordon. They're not going
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  Speaker 1: to be with the team during the bowl season. The
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  Speaker 1: defensive line coach is going to serve as the interim
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: you know. The new head coach is the offensive coordinator,
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  Speaker 1: Brian Hartline. So we'll see what happens there. There could
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: be more opt outs as we get closer to game time.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: You go through and look at some of this stuff,
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  Speaker 1: and it is it's tough to see exactly what these
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  Speaker 1: teams are going to be without their starting quarterback, at
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  Speaker 1: least on offense. USF is number fifteen and PPA per
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  Speaker 1: drive on offense Old Dominion number thirty six. But both
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  Speaker 1: of them pretty good defenses. Both are top thirty defenses
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  Speaker 1: as far as PPA allowed per drive. Both of them
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  Speaker 1: are top thirty two as far as defensive success rate.
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  Speaker 1: Both are Let's see what have we got here? Both
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  Speaker 1: are top thirty two as far as points allowed per
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. So you got some defenses that are playing
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  Speaker 1: pretty well here. I wouldn't expect a whole lot from
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  Speaker 1: the offenses, especially against these defenses. Defense is an effort thing.
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  Speaker 1: Old Dominion ish to two against the spread in bowl games,
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  Speaker 1: South Florida is two to oh plus twenty four point three.
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  Speaker 1: Old Dominion is minus six point three. So that is
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  Speaker 1: something to pay attention to. Both of them really good
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  Speaker 1: in the first half USF number eight and second half
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  Speaker 1: point margin Old Dominion is eighty one, and USF just
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  Speaker 1: has a significantly stronger talent profile than Old Dominion. This
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  Speaker 1: thing has dropped far enough. It's you know, opened at
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  Speaker 1: six and a half. My projected SAT spread has South
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  Speaker 1: Florida by nine point one two. My power rating has
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  Speaker 1: South Florida by six point two. My last four weeks
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  Speaker 1: has South Florida by four point sixty five. Without the quarterbacks,
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  Speaker 1: you kind of fall back to talent, right, and South
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  Speaker 1: Florida has it in droves compared to Old Dominion. You
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  Speaker 1: started getting into depth at that point, and I would
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  Speaker 1: trust South Florida quite a bit more than I would
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  Speaker 1: trust Old Dominion, although I do think that Old Dominion
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: there's a chance that they could flip around their entire
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  Speaker 1: offense to go with the hinnocle. But I'm gonna trust
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  Speaker 1: South Florida. Too many people are on old dominion right now.
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  Speaker 1: You never know exactly what that's gonna mean in old dominion,
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  Speaker 1: a bad record in bowl games. Since twenty twenty, South
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  Speaker 1: Florida has always played well in bowl games. Yeah, that's
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  Speaker 1: the direction we're going. I will take South Florida the
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  Speaker 1: favorite minus three and a half in this one on Wednesday.
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  Speaker 1: Also on Wednesday, the sixty eight Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.
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  Speaker 1: You got Louisiana and Delaware. This one is seven thirty
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  Speaker 1: pm Central on ESPN. Louisiana a three to three and
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  Speaker 1: a half point favorite depending on which book, sixty and
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  Speaker 1: a half to sixty one and a half the total
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  Speaker 1: depending on which book. Now, this thing opened at fifty
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  Speaker 1: eight and a half for the total, and it opened
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  Speaker 1: at Louisiana minus three and a half. Interesting that there
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  Speaker 1: hasn't been a ton of movement on it. But the
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  Speaker 1: movement that has come in has gone the direction that
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  Speaker 1: my spreadsheet will tell you. I've got Delaware favored by
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  Speaker 1: zero point four to three in projected stat spread power rating.
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  Speaker 1: I've got Louisiana by almost two points, and my last
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  Speaker 1: four weeks would have Delaware by four and a half points.
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  Speaker 1: Louisiana two and three against the spread since twenty twenty
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  Speaker 1: in bowl games. This is Delaware's first bowl game and
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  Speaker 1: they have been hoping for this. Louisiana's numbers on the
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  Speaker 1: season not great, number one oh five in PPA margin,
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  Speaker 1: Delaware number eighty three. The best unit on the field
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  Speaker 1: in this is going to be the Delaware offense. They're
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  Speaker 1: number forty one in PPA per drive. They are number
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  Speaker 1: fifty one in offensive success rate, but they're not particularly
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  Speaker 1: great throwing the ball or running the ball. They're worse
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  Speaker 1: running it, number one ten in yards per rush, number
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  Speaker 1: seventy eight and rushing success rate. Louisiana's defense is terrible
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  Speaker 1: against the run, so we're going to see exactly which
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  Speaker 1: team ends up showing up there. But where number fifty
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  Speaker 1: eight and PPA per pass? They were number eight in
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  Speaker 1: pass rate, So they throw a ton and teams don't
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  Speaker 1: seem to throw a ton on Louisiana more than likely
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  Speaker 1: because Louisiana cannot stop the They cannot stop the run.
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  Speaker 1: Delaware number twenty in scoring opportunities per game, but they're
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  Speaker 1: only number eighty one in points per scoring opportunity, and
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  Speaker 1: that's when you get a first down inside of the
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  Speaker 1: opponent's forty yard line. Louisiana's number one thirty one in
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  Speaker 1: scoring opportunities allowed per game, but their number forty seven
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  Speaker 1: in points allowed per scoring opportunity. As far as turnover margin,
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  Speaker 1: Louisiana number forty one and takeaways per game, but their
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  Speaker 1: number eighty in giveaways. Delaware number fifty five in takeaways
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  Speaker 1: per game, but they're number one oh seven and giveaways,
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  Speaker 1: so I would not be shocked in the slightest if
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  Speaker 1: this game ended up coming down to turnovers. So it's
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  Speaker 1: not exactly one that I would love to bet, but
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  Speaker 1: it is what it is. Louisiana number ninety eight in
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  Speaker 1: overall team talent delawarember one twenty four. Delaware is pretty
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  Speaker 1: good against the run, number thirty two and rushing success allowed.
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  Speaker 1: There are number one ten in yards allowed per rush,
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  Speaker 1: but their number sixty one in offensive line yards allowed
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  Speaker 1: number thirty one and stuff rate. Louisiana is number forty
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  Speaker 1: six and rushing explosiveness number eighty in rushing success rate,
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  Speaker 1: number thirty seven. In yards per rush, Delaware being number
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  Speaker 1: ninety five and rushing explosiveness allowed not great definitely, but
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  Speaker 1: but you know they can bow up when they need to.
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  Speaker 1: Penalties per game, Delaware number forty six, USF number seventy nine.
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  Speaker 1: You look at defensive red zone conversion percentage, Delaware is
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  Speaker 1: number one twenty one, Louisiana's number thirty one. Louisiana number
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  Speaker 1: forty nine in offensive red zone conversion percentage, but their
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  Speaker 1: number one o four in offensive red zone touchdown rate.
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  Speaker 1: Delaware is number forty four in offensive red zone touchdown
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  Speaker 1: rate and Louisiana number seventy four and defensive red zone
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  Speaker 1: touchdown rate. So whenever you get down there, I would
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  Speaker 1: expect Delaware to be able to score with Louisiana. I'm
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  Speaker 1: not totally certain as far as people being out. There's
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  Speaker 1: several people that did not play in the final couple
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  Speaker 1: of weeks for Delaware. The running back Joe Silver. He
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  Speaker 1: returned in the finale, he only played twenty three snaps.
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  Speaker 1: Their offensive guard, wide receiver Kelly the tight end Widhoft.
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  Speaker 1: We'll see exactly what that means for the offense. I
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  Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna be that big of an issue.
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  Speaker 1: More than likely they will come back for this game.
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  Speaker 1: We'll see for Louisiana, the quarterback Lunch Winfield left the
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  Speaker 1: regular season finale. Walker Howard ended up taking over. He
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  Speaker 1: was supposed to start this season, got hurt early, came back.
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  Speaker 1: We'll see lunch. Winfield did come back for a play
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  Speaker 1: very late in the game. We'll see what happens. Their
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  Speaker 1: center did miss the finale, so that could be something.
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  Speaker 1: This one is an interesting spot because I do think
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  Speaker 1: Delaware is going to be more motivated than Louisiana, and
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  Speaker 1: the numbers all say to go this direction. So there's
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  Speaker 1: still a three and a half on the board. We're
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  Speaker 1: gonna take Delaware plus the three and a half. I
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  Speaker 1: think the Blue Hens show up here. Louisiana they got
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  Speaker 1: to the bowl game, remains to be seen what they're
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  Speaker 1: going to look like. The talent rank in this certainly
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  Speaker 1: favors Louisiana, but I don't think it's significant enough to
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  Speaker 1: make a huge difference. I think motivation plays a big
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  Speaker 1: factor here. I think Delaware will be motivated. So Delaware
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  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. Thursday, December eighteenth, the Xbox
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  Speaker 1: Bowl in Frisco, Texas, and this one's got Missouri State
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  Speaker 1: and Arkansas State. Missouri State one of those FCS teams
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  Speaker 1: that moved up to Conference USA this past year. They
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  Speaker 1: have been playing better as of late. For sure. This
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  Speaker 1: one eight pm Central Time on ESPN two and Arkansas
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  Speaker 1: State favored by one to one and a half here
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  Speaker 1: with a total of fifty six and a half. It
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  Speaker 1: has come down from the two and a half that
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  Speaker 1: it was before. Power rating has Arkansas State by one
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  Speaker 1: point one. Projected stat spread has Arkansas State by three,
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  Speaker 1: but if you just go based on the last four weeks,
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  Speaker 1: Missouri State would be favored by five point eight eight.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: As far as transfer, portal, injuries, et cetera, not a,
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: both teams are relatively healthy. There's not really a bunch
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  Speaker 1: of opt outs here. The starting center, Cash Hudson for
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Missouri State, he's entering the portal. Hasn't said that he's
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: opting out. I don't believe, but obviously we'll keep an
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  Speaker 1: eye on that. Their defensive tackle Williams and the defensive
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: end Tony both last played in week twelve. And Arkansas State.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: They're left guard Tristan Smith last played in week ten,
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  Speaker 1: so he has been out since then. So let's keep
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: an eye on exactly what the injuries look like, etc.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I would not expect a lot of sitouts for this
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: bowl game. Missouri State number one oh eight MPBA margin,
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas State number one thirteen, Arkansas State number ninety seven
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  Speaker 1: in overall talent rank, Missouri State number one twenty five.
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  Speaker 1: The best unit on the field is going to be
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  Speaker 1: the Missouri State passing offense, and Arkansas State happens to
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  Speaker 1: be kind of bad against the pass. Number ninety five
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  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed for pass number one fifteen in QBR allowed,
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  Speaker 1: number one fourteen in yards allowed per attempt. Missouri State
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  Speaker 1: is number forty three, number thirty five and number thirty
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  Speaker 1: in those metrics. Passing success rate number eighty four from
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Missouri State, but there are number twenty two in passing explosiveness,
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  Speaker 1: Arkansas State, number one oh seven in passing success allowed,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: and number one hundred in passing explosiveness allowed. So that's
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: something to pay attention to. Arkansas State is number ninety
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  Speaker 1: nine and have it created. Missouri State is number one
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  Speaker 1: thirty six and HAVOC allowed, something to pay attention to.
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  Speaker 1: Just keep an eye on that because it's not that
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State is great at it, but if you're able
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: to get to the quarterback and disrupt things, that could
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: be interesting. Missouri State's quarterback or excuse me, Missouri State's
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: coach is leaving to take over Coastal Carolina. I have
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: not seen whether or not Ryan Beard is going to
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: coach in this game. My guess is he's already hited
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: off to South Carolina. But we will see. We will see.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Five factors rank. Both of them are inside the top
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred, but not very far in there. Number ninety
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  Speaker 1: eight for Missouri State, number ninety six for Arkansas State.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State way better in the second half. Both teams
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: not very good as far as the first half is concerned.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: As far as first half point margin, penalties per game,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: both are really good at opponent penalties per game, Arkansas
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: State number two, an opponent penalty sper game Missouri State
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: number sixteen. But when it comes to overall penalties from
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: these teams, Arkansas State number sixty four and Missouri State
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: number one oh seven. Turnover margin Missouri State number seventy one,
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State number one twenty one, and Arkansas State is
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: way better as far as special teams is concerned. That
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: is certainly something to pay attention to. On this Missouri
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: State has not played in a bowl game. Arkansas State
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: is one and one plus six point three in bowls
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. You know, both teams have covered seven
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: times this year. That's something to pay attention to. Arkansas
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: State plays fast thirteen or number thirteen in place per minute,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Missouri State number ninety eight in place per minute, So
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: you've got a pace battle here for sure. I think
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: both teams have played a pretty weak strength of schedule,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Arkansas State number one twenty four, Missouri State number ninety five.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: But I feel better about Arkansas State, especially given the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: time away. Everything kind of resets, Butch Jones gets his
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: players to show up. They this team didn't seem like
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: a team that would be making a bowl game to
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: me this year, but somehow they find ways to win,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: especially close games. And when you've got a spread of
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: one to one and a half, eh, I mean, there's
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: not a whole lot that I can look at that
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: would tell me Arkansas State other than maybe talent, but
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: they just find ways to win games, and I feel
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: like they're gonna end up doing that here, so I
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: will take Arkansas State. The best number I can get
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: is a one. Give me the Red Wolves minus one
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: on this one. Are you tired of sore knees or
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• 15:49
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• 15:58
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• 16:01
  Speaker 1: video and jump in the comments. Tell me your picks
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: on these games, what you'd think I should be looking for.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: Tell me if I've missed something with coaches or opt outs,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: et cetera. I would love to know any information you got,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: but toss it over to us and let us know.
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: That's how we keep the community going. But definitely subscribe
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: to the channel. And we're going to keep this thing
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: going all the way through the National Championship Game and
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: beyond because we're gonna be talking about stuff in the
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: offseason as well. Friday December nineteenth, ten a m. Central
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN, we've got the Myrtle Beach Bowl presented
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: by Engine Kinnesas State against Western Michigan. That's right, You've
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: got the MAC champion against the Conference USA champion, and
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: both of them are I mean, not great overall, but
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: as far as PPA margin is concerned, pretty good both
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: inside the top seventy one. I'll take that Western Michigan
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: favored by three and a half to four depending on
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: the book total of forty nine and a half on
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: this one. And the best unit on the field is
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: going to be the Western Michigan defense. They are number
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: twenty five in success rate allowed, number twenty seven in
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per drive. But the worst unit on the
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: field is going to be this Western Michigan offense, number
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: one oh seven in PPA per drive. The Knnesau State
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: defense is number seventy six in PPA per drive. Kinnesau
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: State's offense number sixty in PPA per drive. PPA, by
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the way, is predicted points added as far as who
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: can finish drives. Western Michigan number one oh six in
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity and Knnessau State's defense is number
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: sixty three. Kennesau State number one thirteen in points per
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity, but they're number twelve in scoring opportunities per game.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan is number thirty in points allowed per scoring opportunity.
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: And that is when you get a first down inside
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the opponent forty yard line. Any drive that you get
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: a first down inside the opponent forty that's what we're
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: paying attention to. Western Michigan way better as far as
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: five factors are concerned. That includes field position, efficiency, turnovers,
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Right, so Western Michigan way better. Western Michigan
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: number twenty six in turnover margin. Kinnesau is number eighty.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: This is this thing opened as Western Michigan minus four
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: and then came down to three and a half. And
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: I'm not totally certain that I understand why, although my
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: numbers would certainly had that direction. Western Michigan minus two
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: point eight nine is the projected stat spread power rating
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: has Western Michigan minus one point six. The last four
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: weeks though, would have Kinnisaus State favored by three. So
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: if you just look at the last well really five games,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: because I included the championship games in here, if you
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: include the past five games for both of these teams,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: it would have Knnisaul State favored by three. And I
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: look at this and I just think that Western Michigan
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: is going to be able to run the ball enough.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Number fifty one and rushing success. Right, they're very patient,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: Like watching this team, very patient team. And I don't
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: get me wrong, I'm not exactly a huge Walt bell Fan,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: that's the offensive coordinator for Western Michigan. But they found
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: something with this offense. They run the ball about sixty
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: five percent of the time, number sixty three in yards
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: per rush Kinnesau's number eighty eight. They are number fifty
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: one and rushing success rate. Kinnessau State is number seventy six,
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: number forty four in offensive line yards Kinnessau's number eighty eight. Like,
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: this offensive line is good enough to be able to
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: kind of push Kennesau State around, So I don't expect
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Kennesaw to be able to keep Western Michigan from driving
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: the ball. Kennesau or sorry. Western Michigan is number fifty
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: three in scoring opportunities per game. Kennesau State is number
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: eighty eight, so that is certainly something to pay attention to.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams are outside the top one ten
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: as far as talent rank. Both of them are around
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: one hundred as far as special team's efficiency. The thing
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: that Kinnesau does best to throw the football the number
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: forty one in PPA per pass. They are number twenty
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: six in yards per pass ATTEPT, number thirty one in QBR.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan is number eighteen in PBA allowed for pass
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: number thirty three in yards allowed per attempt and number
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: twenty eight in QBR allowed passing success rate. Kennesau State's
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: offense number forty five. Western Michigan is number thirty five.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: On top of that, Kennessau is not great a running
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the football. They are number ninety in rushing success rate,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: but they are number forty four in rushing explosiveness. Western Michigan,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: number twenty two in rushing success allowed and number sixty
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: six in rushing explosiveness. Western Michigan looks like overall the
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: significantly better team. Kennesau is number twenty five in pace
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: of play, Western Michigan is number one nineteen. So the
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Broncos are going to be slow and plotting and patient
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: on offense, and I think their defense is going to
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: force a lot of three and outs. I don't know
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: if the number is big enough. I think Western Michigan
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: is the significantly better team here. And you know, Kinnessas
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: has had a great season. They've won ten games. They
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: have not played in a bowl game. Western Michigan, by
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: the way, one and one against the spread in bowls
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty, they are plus ten point three. But
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: this is a kind of a coronation for Lance Taylor
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and company. This would be their tenth win, and I
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna get it, and I think they're gonna
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: cover the number. So best number I can get is
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan minus three and a half. And that's the
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: direction we're going. We're taking the Broncos the Union Home
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Mortgage Gaspario Bowl in Tampa, Florida. Memphis against n C
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: State this one Friday, December nineteenth, one thirty pm Central
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN. Memphis is a five and a half
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: point dog to the wolf Pack totally fifty seven and
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: a half to fifty eight. And in C State, go
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: on and tell you my rejected stat spread. If everybody's healthy,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: if all the coaches were there, all that kind of stuff,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: what at NC State favored by three point seven to two.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Power rating has NC State minus two point three and
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: my last four weeks, yes, NC State has been playing
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: that much better than Memphis. NC State minus eleven point
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: one six. So are spread right now? N C State
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: minus five and a half, the total was fifty eight
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: and a half. That has come down a little bit.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: We've got quite a bit going on here. The head
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: coach Ryan Silverfield left to take the Arkansas job. Reggie Howard,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: who is the defensive backs coach. He is going to
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: serve as the interim for the bowl game. Charles Huff
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: is the new head coach. He won't be involved in this.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: Memphis injuries the right tackle Travis Burke he missed the finale.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Cornerbacks Denise or sorry, Dennis, I think that's how you
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: say it, and Logan, both of them last played in
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: weeks ten and eleven. Other than that, everybody else should
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: be fine. Brendan Lewis has had time to heal up.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: He played injured for a good portion of the end
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: of the season. In C State does have some injuries.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: The left guard Smith, the cornerback Johnson, linebacker Brown, and
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the safety Barnhart. All of those I would not imagine
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: are going to be back for this and there are
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: potential opt outs here. They have not yet. But the
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: running back Hollywood, Smothers, defensive tackle Cleveland, cornerback Marshall, left
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: tackle Peak, and the tight end Justin Justin Jolie. Good gracious,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: good gracious. Now let's pay attention to some numbers here.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: In C State's offense should be fine even without Hollywood
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: smothers even without the tight end. Now, if the left
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: tackle opts out along with the left guard that's injured,
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: that could cause problems. But CJ. Bailey throwing the football,
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: especially against this Memphis pass defense, yeah, should be all right.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: Memphis number one eighteen in passing success allowed and in
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: C State is number forty eight in passing success rate.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: They are number thirty in QBR, number thirty four in
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: PPA per pass, number forty seven in yards per pass attempt.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: Memphis is number one twenty one in PPA allowed per pass,
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: number eighty eight in yards allowed per attempt, number fifty
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: eight in QBR, and I mentioned number forty eight. In
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: passing success rate, Memphis is number one eighteen, so that's
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: not great. Not great. Now, when it comes to running
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: the football, NC State isn't great at it, but they
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: also don't do it much less than forty eight percent
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: of the time. That's number ninety five in rush rate,
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: so they throw it way more than they run it.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: They are number thirty eight in PPA per rush, but
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: they are number seventy three in rushing success rate. Memphis
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: defense number twenty one in PPA allowed per rush, number
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: twenty one in rushing success allowed, So in C State,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I think would be wise not to not to run
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the football a ton Here. Special teams efficiency, Memphis significantly better,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: number seventeen special teams and NC State is number one twenty.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: The talent profile significantly favores NC State here number twenty
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: eight in overall talent, Memphis is number seventy. And you
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: look at Memphis by the way, three oho to one
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty in bowl games against the spread plus
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: eleven point six, n C State is one and three
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and minus five point eight in bowl games. This is
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: one of those weird spots where NC State has been
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: playing way better. I wonder if the break actually hurt them.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Strength of schedule Memphis number one oh six, NC State
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: number thirty seven, that's something to consider as well. Dave
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: Dorin typically has not done well in bowl games. Ryan
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: Silverfield has, but Silverfield is not there, and when you've
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: got a coach that left, you're trying to figure out
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: where the motivation lies. Does Memphis feel like playing in
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: this game? Is NC State kind of irritated that they
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: have to go play in Tampa against the G five team?
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: Who knows at least Memphis is a brand that's certainly good.
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: N C State lost to East Carolina in their bowl
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: game last year. This is another American team that you're
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: gonna have to go up against. I don't think the
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: number is enough here because I think CJ. Bailey is
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of success throwing the football. The
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Memphis offense, by the way, running number four in PPA
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: per rush. They're number seventeen in rushing success rate. NC
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: State is number eighty six in PPA per rush or
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per rush, but the number twenty six in
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: rushing success rate. Memphis number seven in rushing explosiveness. NC
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: State's defense number ninety seven in rushing explosiveness allowed. I
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: think you're gonna see a ton of points. This thing
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: was fifty eight and a half. It's fifty seven and
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: a half to fifty eight now. I don't know if
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Tim Cramsey is going to call the plays here for Memphis,
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: but I think they're still gonna be able to run
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: the football. So when it comes down to it, I
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: think the Memphis offense is going to be fine. I
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: also think NC State's gonna be able to move the
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: ball as well as far as finishing drives. NC State
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: is number ten in points per scoring opportunity. Memphis is
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: number ninety six and points allowed per scoring opportunity, so
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: NC State should be able to finish drives. On the
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: other side, Memphis is number fifteen in points per scoring opportunity,
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: n C State number eighty six, so I think Memphis
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: is going to score two. Like at some point Memphis
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: is the better Bowl team. Both of them have great offenses.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: It feels more like a coin flip game to me
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: and n C State when they have played teams from
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: the American they haven't exactly fared well. I know Ryan
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Silverfield is gone. I think this Memphis team is going
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: to play hard. INCA State has played a lot better
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: as of late, but getting some time off letting Brendan
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Lewis hill up. I think he's gonna be fine so
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: long as he plays. I don't know why I wouldn't,
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I'll take the Tigers. I feel like this
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: this might be too many points. N C State could
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: still win the game, but there is a world with
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: all these explosives that I'm expecting in this game that
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: Memphis could certainly win a coin flip kind of game.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Tigers plus the five and a half Monday,
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: December twenty second, the famous Idaho Potato Bowl and boyse
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the Idaho one pm Central time on ESPN. That's God's
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: time zone, of course. And we have got Washington State
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: against Utah State. Utah State favored by two and a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: half to three depending on the book total fifty two
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: and a half on this and we have got quite
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: a bit to go over. Utah State was favored by
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: three and a half here to open, maybe not to
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: open at least when the sheets were created a week ago,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: right after a bowl season was announced. But right now
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Utah State is favored by two and a half to three.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Rodgers left Washington State to take the head coaching
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: position at Iowa State. He is not staying with the
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: team for the bowl. Could mean some opt outs, could
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: mean portal movement, all sorts of other stuff. We've already
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: got cornerback Kenny Worthy, linebacker Anthony Polano, and the backup
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: quarterback Jackson Potter are all in the portal. Doesn't necessarily
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: mean that they've opted out for this Going for this game.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: Washington State center brock do he missed the finale, and
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: the wide receiver Carter perhaps last played in Week thirteen.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Utah State does not have nearly the same thing. They
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: do have a wide receiver Brandon Pagan, who is in
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the transfer portal has not said that he's not playing
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: in the game though, and their tight end Brock Lane,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: missed the finale, so he is injured and we'll see
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: whether or not he comes back for this one. My
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: projected stat spread actually had Washington State favored by point
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: one points. My last four weeks has Washington State by
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: three point six, and my power rating has Washington State
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: by three point seven. However, Bronckomen and Hall has Utah
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: State ten and two against the spread thus far this season.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Utah State is one and two against the spread minus
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: nine point two in bowls since twenty twenty. Washington State
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: is also one in two against the spread in bowl
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: games since twenty twenty. They are minus eight point two there.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: So let's look at the best units that will be
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: on the field. That would be the Washington State defense
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: and the Utah State offense. Washington State's offense is pretty terrible.
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: Utah State's defense also pretty terrible. This thing at fifty
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: two and a half has not moved, so the total,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: like my projected total on this is forty eight point
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: seven to six. It makes sense. Utah State number forty
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: eight in PPA per drive. They're good at throwing the football.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: They are okay at running the football. Washington State is
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: great against the pass. They are not very good when
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: it comes to stopping the run. So Utah State number
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: eleven in rushing explosiveness, Washington State number ninety three. I
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: would expect Utah State to run the football a little
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: bit more. And if you're able to run it, then
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: you might be able to throw it, because you might
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: you might get those safeties up in the box a
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: little bit. And if you can do that, then you
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: can open up things for your passing game a little bit.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Washington State is number thirty four in PPA allowed for pass,
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: number twenty eight in yards allowed per attempt. You saw
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: state number fifty five and thirty four in those metrics.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: When it comes to qbr Utah State number thirty eight,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Washington State number fifty six, and you start looking at
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule stuff like that, Uta State number sixty seven,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Washington State number fifty six. This Washington State defense kept
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: them in games with Virginia with ole miss James Madison
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: et cetera, So they've kind of been through it. Special
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: team's massive, massive edge to Washington State. Here Utah State
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: number one seventeen. The Cougars are number sixty one, and
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: as far as overall talent is concerned, Washington State number
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: eighty one, Utah State number one twelve, so there is
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: an advantage when it comes to overall talent. The offense
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: for Washington State is just abysmal, a number eighty nine
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate. Utah State's defense is at least
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: number seventy seven. There they're pretty good against the pass.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: That is not something that Washington State is very good at.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: They throw the ball forty nine percent of the time.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: That's number sixty in pass rate. They are number seventy
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: seven in rush rate. Eh. Utah State is good against
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the pass, they are less than stellar against the run.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Washington State is number one twenty one in yours per rush,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: number one oh one in yards allowed per rush, number
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: ninety four for Washington State MPPA per rush. Utah State
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: is number one twenty two in PPA allowed per rush.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: As far as who can finish drives, Utah State is
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: number twenty two in points per scoring opportunity Washington State's
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: defense is number nineteen, so somebody's gonna have to break there.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: Washington State number forty one in points per scoring opportunity
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: that's when you get a drive inside the opponent forty.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: Utah States defense is number eighty one. Now the difference
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: there is Washington State is number one fourteen in points
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: or excuse me, in scoring opportunities per game, and Utah
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: State is number eighty four at allowing scoring opportunities per game.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: I'm not seeing a huge difference between these two teams,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: and Utah State being favored is a bit surprising. But
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: when you lose your head coach and there's potential opt
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: outs and all that kind of stuff, it makes all
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: the sense in the world. And I don't know where
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the motivation would be for Washington State when it comes
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: down to it again. Bowl games are more about motivation,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: and Utah State with Maroco Menenhall, they are trying to
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: build towards the future. I expect big things out of
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: this program. They're ten and two against the spread this year.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I look for that to continue. So this thing is
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I'll take Utah State minus two
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think they want to be here.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know that Washington State does. Why struggle doing
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: everything yourself? On fiver you can hire professionals for just
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: about anything, marketing, editing, design and more. Save time. Get
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: it done right click the link in the description to
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: get started. Tuesday, December twenty third, and we have got
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: Bush's Boca ratone bowl have beans there we go Bocal
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: ratone Bowl of beans in Boco ratone in Florida, Toledo
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: and Louisville one pm Central Time, God's time zone on
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: ESPN and Louisville is an eight and a half to
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: nine and a half point favorite depending on the book
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: total of forty four and a half on this one
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: that has come down from forty six and a half.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: And I will go ahead and tell you Jason Kandell
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: is gone, So Robert Weiner is going to serve as
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: the interim. Vince Carris, the defensive coordinator, is gone to Syracuse. Interesting,
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: very very interesting Toledo transfer portal. They got defensive end
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Malachie Davis. There are potential opt outs. The safety Emmanuel
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: McNeil Warren is headed to the Senior Bowl. Cornerbacks Smith
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: and Fuller the running back chip train them that was
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: the Ohio State transfer and junior vand Ross. The third
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: is the wide receiver. He's gonna be out Toledo injuries.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: You've got Carter Fouty, the left guard. He is injured,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: and we don't know if he's gonna play or not.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: I guess would be not, but we'll see. Louisville has
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: a potential doubts potentially quarterback Miller Moss, the wide receiver
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Chris Bell, running back Isaac Brown, defensive end Clev Lubin.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: And then you've got injuries, the wide receiver Chris Bell,
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the running back Isaac Brown, which there's a reason why
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: they might adopt out of this game. Running back Keewan Brown,
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: running back Duke Watson, safety Antonio Watts, linebacker stan Kwan Clark.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: My projected stat spread on this has Louisville minus eight.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Louisville minus three point seven. My last
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: four weeks Toledo was playing out of their minds before
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: all of this happened. Now last four weeks only include
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: strength to schedule a little bit. Toledo number one twenty
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: eight in current strength to schedule, Louisville number fifty three.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Louisville did not play well until the last game of
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: the year. They were three eight and one against the spread,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: but they were eight and four straight up. Toledo was
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: eight and four straight up. They were eight three and
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: one against the spread. So Toledo two and two minus
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: one point eight in bowl games since twenty twenty, Louisville
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: two and two minus one point one in bowl games
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. The biggest mismatch on the field is
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: going to be the Toledo offensive line against the Louisville
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: defensive line. Aside from that, everything else is pretty normal.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I guess like Louisville, if they don't have the running backs,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: that's going to be a problem. Both of these teams
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: are outside the top one hundred as far as penalties
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: per game. Both are inside the top fifty and turnover margin.
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: They're both great at takeaways, both are both of them
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: can give the ball away. Toledo is number seventy nine
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: and interceptions thrown per pass attempt. Louisville is number fifteen
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: and interceptions gained per passe attempt defended. Toledo doesn't fumble
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: the ball and Louisville doesn't generate a lot of fumbles,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: so you're probably gonna look for a Toledo interception at
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: some point. I don't know what to do with Toledo
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: when Jason Kandall is not the coach. He's been there
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: for ten years. He's been trying to get out of
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: that job for a while. Typically they are pretty good
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: when they are an underdog, but without Vince Garris, without
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: Jason Kandell and potentially the offensive coordinator, et cetera. I
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: don't know exactly what to expect out of this team.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Louisville significantly more as far as special teams efficiency, Toledo
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: number one oh three, Louisville number thirty five. There, Louisville
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: way way way massive talent advantage here number thirty seven,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: and overall talent at on three Toledo number eighty six.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: That Toledo defense was really good, number one in PPA
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: all out per drive. They are number four in defensive
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed. But man, if you're talking about cornerbacks
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: opting out, you're talking about a safety opting out, you're
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: talking about the defensive end. Malachi Davis in the portal
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: is he going to opt out? I don't feel great
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: about their odds against a team like Louisville, who might
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: want to end the season on a better note than
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the way that they played down the stretch. I'll say
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: that Toledo was number three in points per scoring opportunity,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Louisville's defense number eighty three in points allowed, Louisville on
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: offense number forty four in points per scoring opportunity. Excuse me,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: Toledo's defense was number three in points per scoring opportunity.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Points allowed per scoring opportunity, Louisville's offense is number eighty three,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: and on the other side, Toledo's offense number fifty seven
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity, Louisville's defense number forty four.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: I think that Louisville will be able to overwhelm them.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest thing here. The talent difference
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: is going to be too great. The fact that Toledo's
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: coach has gone, I don't know what these players are
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: really going to be focused on. I can still get
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: an eight and a half. I mean, this thing was
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: nine and a half. It came down a little bit,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: and then Jason Candell took that job. It looks like
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: the line has not exactly gotten up there. And so
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: long as this thing remains double digits. I'm going with
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: a favorite, give me the Louisville Cardinals minus eight and
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: a half. Also on Tuesday, December twenty third, four to
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: thirty pm Central Time, Guid's time zone on ESPN, We've
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: got the New Orleans Bowl, which is of course in
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: New Orleans. Western Kentucky against Southern Miss for this one.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Western Kentucky have four to four and a half point
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: favorite total of fifty five and a half on this one.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams ranked outside the top one point
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: fifteen as far as current strength of schedule. Western Kentucky
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good football team, eight and four straight up this year.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss seven and five, but they lost their last three.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: Southern is one to zero against the spread since twenty
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: twenty in bowl games plus seven point five. Western Kentucky
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: three and two plus six point eight in bowl games,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: so not a huge advantage either way as far as
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: that is concerned. Tyson Helton remains the coach at Western Kentucky.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: I'm just shocked that nobody has tried to hire him away.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: He is a fantastic football coach. Charles Huff left Southern
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: Miss to go and take the Memphis head coaching job.
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: Blake Anderson, the offensive coordinator there. He was hired to
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: take over as the head coach for next season, so
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: he will be the interim coach for the ball game.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: I guess you could just say he's going to be
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: the head coach for the bowl game. I wouldn't expect
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: a whole lot to change as far as that is
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: concerned Western Kentucky. They do have their cornerback Dylan Flowers
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: in the transfer portal. That doesn't mean that he's gonna
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: sit out. They don't really have any notable injuries thus far.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss. Their cornerback Josh Moten is a potential opt out.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: They do have an injury to Blake Bustard, who is
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: the left tackle. Other than that, healthy teams should be good.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss number seventy eight overall team talent, Western Kentucky
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: number eighty two. And this is an old Conference to
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: USA matchup that has changed a bit because Southern Miss
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: is now in the Sun Belt. So let's take a
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: look see what we got. Southern would be favored over
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: the last four weeks minus one point seven to seven.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Western Kentucky is my projected stats spread favorite by point
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: two three points. Western Kentucky is the power rating favorite
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: by two point one points, so I don't see a
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: ton of difference between these two teams. Southern is number
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: fifty six and PPA margin Western Kentucky number fifty one.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: Teams on offense, but both have pretty good defenses. Southern
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Miss number seventy two in PPAPRI drive on offense, Western
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Kentucky's defense number forty eight. Western Kentucky number sixty eight
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: in PPAPRI drive on offense. Southern Miss is number fifty
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: eight on defense. As far as who can finish drives,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss, by the way, pretty good throwing the football,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: Western Kentucky is pretty good at defending it. Number that
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: does sixty eight in passing success rate for Southern Miss,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: number eighteen for Western Kentucky's defense number thirty nine in
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: QBR for Southern Miss, Western Kentucky number twenty. Uh. There's
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: just you know, Southern is explosive as far as the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: passing game number thirteen. Western Kentucky is number forty four,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: so they do defend it fairly well. As far as
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: running the football, Southern Miss number one oh two in
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: yards per rush, Western Kentucky number one twenty six. Well,
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: you look at rushing success rate just on a down
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: to down basis, and Southern is number one h two
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: in rushing success Western Kentucky number twenty nine on defense
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: who can finish drives? Southern number sixty nine in points
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: per scoring opportunity. Western Kentucky's defense is number eleven. On
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, Western Kentucky throws it
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: a lot over fifty five percent of the time, but
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: there are number seventy in yards per pass attempt, number
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: twenty seven in passing success rate. Southern miss number seventy
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: seven in passing success rate allowed, but they're good at
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: a lot of other stuff number forty two and halfoc
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: great number thirty three in passing explosiveness allowed, they are
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: number forty one and QBR allowed, et cetera. So that
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: could be an interesting matchup. Western isn't great at running
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: the football number eighty three in yards per rush, number
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: eighty eight and PPA per rush, but Southern is equally
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: as bad defending the run, number one hundred in PBA
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: allowed per rush, number eighty five in rushing success, et cetera.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: So something to pay attention to with that points for
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. Western Kentucky's offense number thirty three. Southern Miss
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: defense number ninety one. There, Western Kentucky way better as
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: far as just overall five factors number forty five. There,
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss is number seventy three. And yet because of
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: the talent rank being where it is, number seventy eight,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: number eighty two, my projected stats spread does not have
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: a massive advantage for Western Kentucky here. Pace of play
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Western is quick number thirty one in place per minute,
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss is faster, number eleven in place per minute.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: I do think that Southern is going to be fired
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: up for Blake Anderson here, but I do think that
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Western is a better overall football team. I'm just curious
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: about opt Out's curious about everything else. So when Charles
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Huff left Marshall, everybody opted out of the ball game,
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: et cetera. In this situation, it doesn't look like that's
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: necessarily gonna be the problem. I mean, this thing got
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: up to Western Kentucky four and a half. I kind
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: of like Southern Miss here. Hattiesburg to New Orleans is
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: not that far, and I think that Southern Miss is
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: pretty excited about being back in a bowl game. Motivation
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: I think is gonna lie with Southern Miss for their
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: new head coach, et cetera. Western We shall see. We
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: shall see. Western was very up and down as far
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: as the overall season is concerned. Southern Miss was five
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: and six against the UH That changes a lot of things.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Western nine and two against the spread or nine to
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: two and one, excuse me, eight and four straight up?
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Southern Miss was seven and five. I mean these numbers.
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: You know what, Western Kentucky is number twenty four in
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: special teams, Southern's number one oh seven. I'm gonna change
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: it up here. I will side with Q public and
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of favorites. I'll take Western Kentucky. Tyson
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: Nelton is a fantastic coach. I think Southern is gonna
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: show up here, but I think Western can can cover
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: the number. So I'm going against my numbers. I will
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: take the Hilltoppers minus the four. Don't forget to make
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: sure that you are subscribed to the podcast and then
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: you'll leave a nice five star review on whatever app
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: that might be. But certainly appreciate that. Along with that,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: of course, one more time, check out Buy Me a
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: Coffee dot Com slash winning cures. The easy url is
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: BETTINGCFB dot Com five bucks a month, fifty bucks from
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the year. You get some bonus content over there and
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: it goes to support the show. So I would appreciate
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: you guys helping out over there. Last game for today's show,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: and this is the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: eight pm Central Time on ESPN, UNLV and Ohio and
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: currently UNLV is a four to four and a half
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: point favorite total of sixty two and a half on
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: this one. And my goodness, we got some things to
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: figure out about Ohio. One of the weirder situations that
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: is going on is the fact that the head coach,
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: Brian Smith is on leave, has been for a couple
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: of weeks now, and nobody knows why. They've said nothing.
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: He's going through a divorce. There's been a lot of rumors,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: the school hasn't said anything. It's weird. Just all of
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: it's weird. As far as injuries go, UNLV tight end
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Varkey's gums. He last played in week twelve, so he's
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: been out with injury. And Ohio the linebacker Michael Molnar
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: last played in Week nine. Other than that, you know,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: Ohio their defensive coordinator John Howser is taking over as
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: the interim right now? What is going to be the
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: motivation of the team here? Like, I don't know. I
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: love Parker and Navarro. This team always seems to show
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: up in these spots. Ohio one one and one against
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the spread in bowl games since twenty twenty, they are
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: plus six. UNOV is one and one against the spread
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: in bowl game since twenty twenty, plus one point three.
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: It's a very interesting situation. UNOV is significantly more talented here,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: number seventy three in overall talent rank. Ohio is number
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: one twenty UNOV better on special teams number sixty four.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: Ohio is number one twenty nine. The Ohio offense should
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: be able to put up quite a few points here.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: Brian Smith does a lot on offense. He was the
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator here. Scott is fording bobcat Fans. Tell me
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: how you say that? Tell me how to say that.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: They're really good on offense. Number forty six in offensive
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: success rate, number thirty seven in PPA per drive. And
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: this UNOV defense is just bad. Number one oh two
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: in defensive success allowed, at number one oh eight in
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: defensive PPA allowed per drive. They're not gonna be able
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: to stop the run, so Ohio is going to be
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: able to do basically whatever they want to. Ohio is
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: number number one oh three in place per minute. UNLV
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: also a little bit slow, number eighty nine in place
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: per minute. The UNOV offense number twenty in PPA pri drive.
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: They're number twenty five in offensive success rate. So Dan
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: Mullen and Anthony Calandria have got some good stuff going here.
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: Looking at the UNOV offense, they are number twenty one
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity. Ohio's defense is number fourteen. But
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I do think UNOV is going to be able to
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: run the ball. They're gonna be able to move it
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: on Ohio, but Ohio gets some very timely stops. I
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: will say that you and LV way better. As far
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: as turnover margin, they are number thirty three in margin.
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: Ohio is number eighty one, UNLV number one thirty. In
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: penalties per game, Ohio number seventy nine, But UNLV is
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: number twenty seven in opponent penalties per game while Ohio
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: is number one twenty six. I believe that is just
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: a massive, massive difference special teams, net, explosiveness, everything else,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: along with the fact that I don't know what Ohio's
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: motivation is here. This does not seem like a good
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: spot for the Bobcats, especially when you look at talent
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: everything else. I don't think Ohio on the lines. Yeah,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: there's not like a there's really no advantage at all
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: for Ohio. And that's where you Andov struggled this year.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: There are two losses, well, two of their three losses
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: are to Boise State, who had a significant advantage at
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. Ohio doesn't have that. So when
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: you look at this, you're trying to break down certain
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: things and there's just no way to know whether or
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: not Ohio is going to show up for John Howser.
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: Maybe we know more about Brian Smith by the time
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: this Bowl game comes around. But as it sits nine
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: days out right now, which I'm recording this on Sunday,
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: December fourteenth, I'm gonna have to go with UNOV. I mean,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: this number has dropped from five down to four and
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: a half to four. I'm gonna go the opposite way.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: Give me the run of rebels minus four. Man, that's
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of favorites today. Good gracious that Sometimes it's
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: like that though, motivation very key factor. Give me give
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: me the rebels here, UNLV minus four. All right, again,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: we're going over bowl games from December seventeenth through December
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: twenty third. The college football playoff games are on the
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: first bowl preview that we did, along with the Army
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: Navy game, et cetera, So make sure and check those
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: out on the channel as well. But let's recap it.
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: South Florida minus three and a half, Delaware plus three
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: and a half, Arkansas State minus one, Western Michigan minus
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: three and a half, Memphis plus five and a half,
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Utah State minus two and a half, Louisville minus eight
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: and a half, Western Kentucky minus four, and UNLV minus four.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: That is gonna wrap things up today. Don't forget buy
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: me coffee dot com slash Winning Cures. You can get
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: the spreadsheets over there and make sure that you are
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: subscribed to the channel, that you like the video, and
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: of course jump in the comments and give me your picks,
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: give me what information you got. I would love to
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: hear from you. With that said, oh, in the podcast
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: as well. Subscribe to the audio only podcast. I would
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: appreciate that there's more stuff over there than there is
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: on the YouTube channel. I tend to talk about all
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: kinds of random things that are going on in this
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: crazy sport because I do, in fact love the sport
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: of college football. It's not just a betting thing for me.
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: I just love the sport, although there are times that
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: it makes it very difficult along with all this all
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: this crap that's going on with the legal mumbo jumbo
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: and the coaching searches, and it gets a little crazy,
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: but I still do love the sport. But that said,
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: let's get out of here, take care of yourself, take
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: care of each other. God bless college football, and hopefully
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: to Winning Cures Everything, Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 54:40
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• 54:43
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