Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/9/26: WH Humiliated By Israel, Lebanon Bombings, Yanis Varoufakis On China Winning

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4/9/26: WH Humiliated By Israel, Lebanon Bombings, Yanis Varoufakis On China Winning · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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0:37
Speaker 1: What do we pristalle indeed we do.
0:38
Speaker 2: The ceasefire is on the verge of collapse this morning,
0:41
Speaker 2: as Israel insists on continuing their mass murder in Lebanon
0:44
Speaker 2: and Trump says go right ahead. Yanis Faibacus is going
0:47
Speaker 2: to join us this morning to talk about the rise
0:50
Speaker 2: of Asia in the midst of this conflict and their
0:52
Speaker 2: role and give his overall thoughts on what is going
0:55
Speaker 2: on here.
0:55
Speaker 4: We've also got the.
0:56
Speaker 2: Straight Upform Moves closed again because of that breakdown in
1:00
Speaker 2: the ceasefile. We'll take a look at the impact of
1:03
Speaker 2: oil both today and also this role in the conflict,
1:06
Speaker 2: Israeli's promise that the war is not over. We also
1:09
Speaker 2: have a major Zionist freak out that we're going to
1:12
Speaker 2: take a look at. I'm sure you guys will enjoy
1:13
Speaker 2: that one as we enjoyed putting the segment together. And
1:16
Speaker 2: an Irani An American scholar is going to join us
1:18
Speaker 2: to talk about how this war fits in the long
1:21
Speaker 2: history of Iran and the likely reaction of the public
1:24
Speaker 2: to the way this has all gone.
1:26
Speaker 3: Down, right, an actual scholar, by the way, in Iran,
1:29
Speaker 3: not just some guy who owns a dry cleaning business
1:31
Speaker 3: in Los Angeles. A right thank you to everybody who's
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Speaker 1: Right, I like that. You know, it's a nice number.
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Speaker 1: Two point two to two.
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Speaker 4: Shoot for the stars.
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Speaker 1: You just want to keep you want three point zero?
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Speaker 4: Two point five?
2:01
Speaker 1: Okay, two point five?
2:02
Speaker 3: All right, two point five modest goals here over at
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Speaker 3: breaking point.
2:05
Speaker 2: By the way, Ryan strong armed us into making the
2:07
Speaker 2: whole Friday show.
2:08
Speaker 3: Yes, that's right, when he announced that we had reality
2:10
Speaker 3: on the ground. Yeah, that's fine, all right, we're going
2:12
Speaker 3: to do that for now.
2:14
Speaker 1: That's what Ryan does. Ryan calls the shots around here.
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Speaker 1: Really helps other people find the show.
2:22
Speaker 3: But with that, let's go ahead and start with the
2:24
Speaker 3: can you call a ceasefire if the fire hasn't actually ceased?
2:27
Speaker 3: But here is Caroline Levitt from the White House podium. Yesterday,
2:32
Speaker 3: you will recall that Donald Trump and the Pakistani Prime
2:34
Speaker 3: Minister both announced that the ceasefire was contingent on a
2:38
Speaker 3: workable solution. That workable solution being the so called ten
2:41
Speaker 3: point plan from Iran. That ten point plan included the
2:44
Speaker 3: Iranian control of the Straits of hor Moves, their right
2:47
Speaker 3: to enrich uranium, their ability to have total sanctions relief,
2:51
Speaker 3: a ceasefire in Lebanon. Well, the White House now saying, actually,
2:54
Speaker 3: that ten point plan is thrown into the garbage, even
2:57
Speaker 3: though the ceasefire itself remains.
2:59
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
3:00
Speaker 5: The Iranians originally put forward a ten point plan that
3:03
Speaker 5: was fundamentally unserious, unacceptable, and completely discarded. It was literally
3:08
Speaker 5: thrown in the garbage by President Trump and his negotiating team.
3:13
Speaker 5: Many outlets in this room have falsely reported on that
3:16
Speaker 5: plan as being acceptable to the United States, and that
3:19
Speaker 5: is false. With the President's deadline fast approaching in the
3:22
Speaker 5: United States military completely decimating Iran with each passing hour,
3:26
Speaker 5: the regime acknowledged reality to the negotiating team. They put
3:30
Speaker 5: forward a more reasonable and entirely different and condensed plan
3:34
Speaker 5: to the President and his team. President Trump and the
3:37
Speaker 5: team determined the new modified plan was a workable basis
3:41
Speaker 5: on which to negotiate and to align it with our
3:44
Speaker 5: own fifteen point proposal. The President's red lines, namely the
3:48
Speaker 5: end of Iranian enrichment in Iran, have not changed, and
3:53
Speaker 5: the idea that President Trump would ever accept an Iranian
3:57
Speaker 5: wish list as a deal is completely absurd. The President
4:01
Speaker 5: will only make a deal that serves in the best
4:03
Speaker 5: interests of the United States of America, and he is
4:05
Speaker 5: a negotiating team. We'll focus on this effort over the
4:08
Speaker 5: next two weeks, so long as the strait of her
4:10
Speaker 5: moves remains open with no limitations or delays. These extraordinarily
4:16
Speaker 5: sensitive and complex negotiations will take place behind closed doors
4:20
Speaker 5: over the course of the next two weeks.
4:22
Speaker 3: So you could see that we threw it into the trash.
4:24
Speaker 3: So then what exactly are we all negotiating about. I
4:27
Speaker 3: know Ryan and Emily went over some of the ten
4:29
Speaker 3: point plan yesterday, but it is really worth saying, Like,
4:32
Speaker 3: first of all, the White House is like, well, the
4:34
Speaker 3: public ten point plan, that's not the real ten point plan,
4:37
Speaker 3: but the real ten point plan we also threw in.
4:39
Speaker 3: So what are we negotiating about? I mean, the whole
4:41
Speaker 3: thing is totally preposterous. And we're going to get to
4:43
Speaker 3: this in a second. From the Speaker of the Parliament, Galliboh.
4:47
Speaker 3: Remember he is the person who is going to be
4:49
Speaker 3: sitting across the table if these talks do happen on
4:52
Speaker 3: Saturday morning in Islamabad. From the Vice President of the
4:55
Speaker 3: United States, Well, he is pretty clearly saying these.
4:58
Speaker 1: Are parts of that ten point plan.
5:00
Speaker 3: So there's been no cease I mean, what did the
5:03
Speaker 3: daity call it a fragile truce. That's probably the best descriptor.
5:07
Speaker 3: It's not a real ceasefire if the firing has not
5:09
Speaker 3: actually ceased. For seeing stuff blow up all across the globe,
5:12
Speaker 3: the White House is so desperate. I think Trump was
5:15
Speaker 3: for the oil markets to come down, so he was
5:17
Speaker 3: successful and for the markets to rocket. But outside of that,
5:20
Speaker 3: nothing fundamental has been solved here, absolutely nothing, no, and.
5:24
Speaker 2: It's very hard to see what happens next. So I'll
5:27
Speaker 2: just say, you know, just to back up a second
5:29
Speaker 2: about how we got.
5:29
Speaker 4: To this quote unquote ceasefire.
5:32
Speaker 2: I look, this is speculation, but you know, there's a
5:35
Speaker 2: lot of intelligent people who have looked at the evidence
5:37
Speaker 2: of what exactly happened with this pilot capture, and I
5:39
Speaker 2: am persuaded by the evidence that they were trying to
5:42
Speaker 2: do some sort of a grab the nuclear material option
5:47
Speaker 2: obviously catastrophic failure. And so then we saw Trump like
5:51
Speaker 2: lashing out with these insane posts clo you know, open
5:54
Speaker 2: the fucking straight. And then of course we had the
5:57
Speaker 2: genocidal threats, So what he had wanted to be his
6:00
Speaker 2: off ramp and his mission accomplished moment had completely fallen apart,
6:04
Speaker 2: and that left him scrambling and desperate and realizing also
6:07
Speaker 2: that any other of their sort of farcical plans to
6:10
Speaker 2: take this island or that island, or try to do
6:13
Speaker 2: this sort of invasion or that sort of invasion, we're
6:15
Speaker 2: also likely to end an utter and complete catastrophe. So
6:18
Speaker 2: that left him with few options. You know, from the
6:21
Speaker 2: Iranian side, yes, the points have shifted a little bit
6:24
Speaker 2: over time, but basically since the beginning of the war,
6:27
Speaker 2: they have said, these are our priorities, this is what
6:30
Speaker 2: we want to end this war, and we don't want
6:32
Speaker 2: a temporary ceasefire. We want an end to a permanent
6:35
Speaker 2: end to hostilities, and we need guarantees that both our
6:39
Speaker 2: deterns is strong enough and also some like international community
6:42
Speaker 2: guarantees that we're not going to end up back here again.
6:45
Speaker 2: So obviously Trump is lying when he's like, oh, these
6:47
Speaker 2: ten points you guys are talking.
6:48
Speaker 4: That has nothing to do with it.
6:50
Speaker 2: He's just responding to the fact that people when they
6:53
Speaker 2: looked and I'm not just talking about like liberals, leftists,
6:56
Speaker 2: anti war activists whatever. When his supporters looked at what
7:00
Speaker 2: this basis for negotiation was, they said, this is the surrender. Like,
7:04
Speaker 2: this is a complete and total defeat for the United
7:06
Speaker 2: States of America. So everything since then is him trying
7:10
Speaker 2: to obfuscate and spin that the you know, this decisive
7:14
Speaker 2: defeat is what it would effectively be, is not as
7:17
Speaker 2: bad as it looks. And then with regard to this
7:19
Speaker 2: piece on Lebanon, it is as clear as it could possibly.
7:22
Speaker 4: Be that Lebanon was part of the deal.
7:25
Speaker 2: That's what the Pakistani Prime minister tweeted out in a
7:28
Speaker 2: tweet that was likely drafted by US and certain it was.
7:32
Speaker 4: Confirmed that it was reviewed by US.
7:34
Speaker 2: Yeah, and very likely drafted directly bias that included the
7:37
Speaker 2: language about Lebanon being included. So they're just lying now
7:41
Speaker 2: that that was never contemplated or that it was ambiguous.
7:43
Speaker 2: And that's jdie Vance's new line is like, Oh, I
7:45
Speaker 2: think it's just a misunderstanding.
7:47
Speaker 4: No, you all trying to go back on your word.
7:49
Speaker 2: Why because apparently you never ever can stand up to
7:53
Speaker 2: Israel And so now this whole thing hangs in the balance.
7:56
Speaker 3: Yes, exactly, Yeah, and again to zoom out I think
7:58
Speaker 3: your theory is very plausible. I'd definitely do sink something
8:01
Speaker 3: was up. I don't know if it was the full operation.
8:03
Speaker 1: It was maybe dual use just to see if we
8:04
Speaker 1: could establish the base.
8:06
Speaker 3: But that alone, I mean, it would be a huge failure,
8:08
Speaker 3: right if the if they had to blow it up,
8:10
Speaker 3: They said that they took artillery fire, that there was
8:12
Speaker 3: fire on target, all of the Iranians in the area
8:14
Speaker 3: were firing.
8:15
Speaker 1: They had multiple aircraft that were shot down. But you're right.
8:17
Speaker 3: I mean, my only takeaway, I'm honestly sad. Like looking
8:20
Speaker 3: at it, I'm like, wow, like we have been utterly
8:22
Speaker 3: humiliated by this country, Like how much money have we
8:25
Speaker 3: all paid in taxes for these Tomahawk missiles and these
8:30
Speaker 3: aircraft carriers and these C one thirties and these E
8:33
Speaker 3: threes and these bad radars, and how you know we've
8:36
Speaker 3: all not had healthcare as a result.
8:39
Speaker 1: And that was the trade.
8:40
Speaker 3: Europe gets to have healthcare, we get all the weapons,
8:42
Speaker 3: we get to guarantee the high seas and commerce and
8:45
Speaker 3: the empire, and then it all just comes crashing down.
8:47
Speaker 3: Like the truth is is that this if this were
8:49
Speaker 3: to hold in, the ten points were too remotely become true,
8:52
Speaker 3: it would be the biggest strategic defeat for the United
8:53
Speaker 3: States since Vietnam. Professor Paip said that, and I totally
8:56
Speaker 3: agree with it. Because the full force of the US
8:59
Speaker 3: military went in and tried to accomplish regime change, the
9:02
Speaker 3: opening reopening of the Straits of Horror moves, and also
9:05
Speaker 3: the destruction of Iran's ballistic missile capacity and as well
9:09
Speaker 3: as their drones.
9:10
Speaker 1: We did not accomplish any of that.
9:12
Speaker 3: They retain all of that now, ha US have been diminished,
9:14
Speaker 3: sure and clearly though you know the Iranians. The one
9:17
Speaker 3: change they made in their strategic calculus, and I'm still
9:21
Speaker 3: very curious as to how this all came about. They
9:23
Speaker 3: did agree ultimately to a temporary ceasefire. I don't know why.
9:26
Speaker 3: From what I have asked around. Their belief was not
9:30
Speaker 3: that Trump ultimately would destroy their power plants, et cetera,
9:34
Speaker 3: and that while that might be survivable, I think that
9:36
Speaker 3: what they fear the most is actually being nuked by Israel,
9:39
Speaker 3: is that ultimately, the longer this would be going on,
9:41
Speaker 3: And so they said, well, let's at least try to
9:44
Speaker 3: have some sort of a temporary ceasefire in the interim.
9:46
Speaker 3: By the way, aren't we always told that they're insane, theocrats,
9:51
Speaker 3: suicidal and all that. Yeah, it's like, well, you know,
9:54
Speaker 3: if you ask me, you know, if you have somebody
9:55
Speaker 3: who's fooled you twice in the cover of diplomatic negotiations
9:59
Speaker 3: to it's actually irrational to try and have a temporary
10:02
Speaker 3: sea spire.
10:03
Speaker 4: Yeah, just me.
10:03
Speaker 3: I'm glad they did it, to be very clear, Very
10:05
Speaker 3: glad Trump did this, Very glad the Iranians did this.
10:07
Speaker 1: But it could still very much easily collapse.
10:10
Speaker 4: I mean, it's collapsing in real time as we watch.
10:12
Speaker 2: I think we're going to learn more about the role
10:14
Speaker 2: of China in all of this, potentially on both sides,
10:17
Speaker 2: I mean, carrots to Iran and also look, our entire
10:21
Speaker 2: industrial base is hangs in the balance based on China's
10:24
Speaker 2: good graces of whether or not we're going to have
10:25
Speaker 2: access to their where Earth supply and all the supply
10:28
Speaker 2: lines that they have sort of like locked down at
10:30
Speaker 2: least for the near term, because we haven't done the
10:32
Speaker 2: work that we need to do to make sure we
10:34
Speaker 2: have our own domestic capabilities with that regard. So I
10:37
Speaker 2: think we'll learn more about China's role here. But you know,
10:40
Speaker 2: according to Jeremy, and you know, I listen to him
10:42
Speaker 2: obviously with great interest. By the way, shout out to
10:44
Speaker 2: drop site, like, yes, anyone who's reading drop Site knows
10:48
Speaker 2: so much more of how this is going to go
10:50
Speaker 2: and what the truth is than you know, I think
10:52
Speaker 2: anyone else in the world. But in any case, you know,
10:55
Speaker 2: Jeremy says, effectively, the Iranians have always said, yeah, we're
10:58
Speaker 2: willing to end the war. Here are are demands. And
11:01
Speaker 2: so when the US was like, okay, we you know,
11:03
Speaker 2: accept your demands at least as a basis for negotiation,
11:07
Speaker 2: and you have you know, China coming in and they're
11:09
Speaker 2: you know, genuinely taking a lot of heat and under pressure,
11:11
Speaker 2: et cetera, there was a sense of okay, well let's
11:14
Speaker 2: give it a shot and let's see. But Lebanon, all
11:17
Speaker 2: of the fronts of war were very clearly included. And
11:22
Speaker 2: you know, obviously we know that Israel does not want
11:25
Speaker 2: to end this war. They're doing everything they can. Maybe
11:28
Speaker 2: has come out and said that where the war is
11:30
Speaker 2: not over, we want to go back and achieve our objectives.
11:33
Speaker 2: There's a huge revolt from the population of like, well
11:36
Speaker 2: we you know, Iran still exists and they're stronger than ever.
11:38
Speaker 4: So it was an.
11:39
Speaker 2: Utterly predictable that Israel would come in and do whatever
11:43
Speaker 2: they can to blow this thing up. And it happened
11:47
Speaker 2: even faster than I could have possibly expected. That not
11:50
Speaker 2: only do they continue their invasion and ethnic cleansing and
11:53
Speaker 2: bombing campaign in Lebanon, they dramatically dramatically escalated it. Our
11:58
Speaker 2: reference before JDVA talking about like, oh, I think this
12:01
Speaker 2: is just like a little misunderstanding, which again total nonsense.
12:05
Speaker 2: This was very much, clearly articulated and clearly contemplated in
12:10
Speaker 2: the agreement for this ceasefire where while a larger end
12:13
Speaker 2: of the war is worked out. But let's go ahead
12:14
Speaker 2: and take a listen to him claiming that this was
12:17
Speaker 2: just a misunderstanding.
12:18
Speaker 6: There seems to be a disagreement about whether Lebanon was
12:21
Speaker 6: included in this proposal.
12:22
Speaker 1: And the speaker of the Parliament you're going.
12:24
Speaker 7: To sit across from the table from an Islamabad, it's
12:27
Speaker 7: just said that he thinks negotiations would be unreasonable.
12:30
Speaker 1: While that war is on going.
12:31
Speaker 3: So would you ask Israel to hold off strikes to
12:34
Speaker 3: allow some face for these songs?
12:35
Speaker 8: Well, first, of all, I know there's been some conversations
12:38
Speaker 8: between the Israelis and the leadership of our country today.
12:41
Speaker 8: I haven't been involved in that because I've been busy
12:43
Speaker 8: doing stuff in Hungary. I'm just supposed to get an
12:46
Speaker 8: update when I get on the plane. But let me
12:47
Speaker 8: say a couple of things. First of all, I actually
12:49
Speaker 8: think and there's a lot of bad faith negotiation and
12:53
Speaker 8: a lot of bad faith, you know, propaganda going on.
12:56
Speaker 8: I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think
12:59
Speaker 8: the Ranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it
13:03
Speaker 8: just didn't. We never made that promise, We never indicated
13:06
Speaker 8: that was going to be the case. What we said
13:08
Speaker 8: is that the ceasefire would be focused on Iran, and
13:11
Speaker 8: the ceasefire would be focused on America's allies, both Israel
13:14
Speaker 8: and the Golf are of states. Now that said, the Israelis,
13:17
Speaker 8: as I understand it again, I'm supposed to get a
13:19
Speaker 8: full of report when I get on the plane, have
13:21
Speaker 8: actually offered, to be frankly, to check themselves a little
13:27
Speaker 8: bit in Lebanon because they want to make sure that
13:29
Speaker 8: our negotiation is successful. That's not because that is part
13:33
Speaker 8: of the ceasefire. I think that's the Israelis trying to
13:35
Speaker 8: set up us up for success, and we'll of course
13:38
Speaker 8: see how that unfolds in the next few days.
13:40
Speaker 2: So, I mean, you can see the way the sort
13:42
Speaker 2: of choice race that's up here, both for Iran and
13:44
Speaker 2: for the US. For the ir For Iran, they have
13:47
Speaker 2: to decide how committed are we to Lebanon Based on
13:49
Speaker 2: what Tree de Parsi has been saying. I think they
13:52
Speaker 2: are committed to Lebanon, not just because that you know,
13:55
Speaker 2: they see them as like human beings who shouldn't be
13:58
Speaker 2: slaughter ethnically cleansed. But more important, they see the escalation
14:01
Speaker 2: into Lebanon and the attacks on Palestinians as a threat
14:04
Speaker 2: to their own security because that always means that the
14:06
Speaker 2: thing can expand and the conflagration exactly.
14:09
Speaker 3: They look at They literally call themselves brothers. Of course
14:12
Speaker 3: they've given them weapons. Also, Hesbola put it all on
14:14
Speaker 3: the line for Iran, right, so they decided to try
14:18
Speaker 3: and draw fire from Israel and get themselves bombed as
14:22
Speaker 3: was to try and to deplete Israeli interceptors and expand.
14:26
Speaker 1: It was successful.
14:27
Speaker 3: They literally forced it, not for Israel decided to invade Lebanon,
14:31
Speaker 3: basically ethnically cleanse half of the country and probably annex
14:34
Speaker 3: it for some time in the future. But like that,
14:37
Speaker 3: you can't just aband be like if the United States
14:39
Speaker 3: was fighting with somebody else and then we said, okay,
14:41
Speaker 3: well we'll have a cease fire by latterly. But the
14:43
Speaker 3: person who launched a war on your behalf is that person,
14:46
Speaker 3: we just leave them out to drop.
14:47
Speaker 4: I mean, we would prob but anyway, maybe they weren't.
14:49
Speaker 3: But maybe be worth it. I think it was totally existential,
14:53
Speaker 3: but it's.
14:53
Speaker 1: Not right right.
14:54
Speaker 2: And then for the US, you got to choose do
14:56
Speaker 2: you want the story of war moves to be operable
14:59
Speaker 2: or do you want to let Israel rampage? You know,
15:02
Speaker 2: And that's the choice. And I would err on the
15:05
Speaker 2: side of figuring that Trump's can allow Israel to rampa.
15:07
Speaker 2: It certainly seems the direction that they're leaning in right now.
15:10
Speaker 2: But he also watches the market so closely. We know
15:13
Speaker 2: how much that drives his behavior, not just with regard
15:15
Speaker 2: to the oil prices, but with regard to the bond markets,
15:18
Speaker 2: with regard to the stock markets. So these are two
15:20
Speaker 2: very powerful competing forces within the Trump presidency, which is
15:24
Speaker 2: why it's so hard to predict what's going to happen.
15:26
Speaker 1: Yeah.
15:26
Speaker 3: Look, I have no idea, but we do know that
15:28
Speaker 3: the Iranians are sticking to their guns. Let's put a
15:30
Speaker 3: three up there on the screen. This was an initial
15:32
Speaker 3: statement from the speaker, Golibah. He said, a statement on
15:36
Speaker 3: the violation of three key clauses of the ten point
15:38
Speaker 3: proposal before the start of negotiations. The deep historical trust
15:42
Speaker 3: that we hold towards the United States stemstruments repeated violations
15:45
Speaker 3: all forms of commitments, a pattern that has regrettedly been
15:48
Speaker 3: repeated again. As the President of the United States has
15:50
Speaker 3: clearly stated in his truth, the Islamic Republic of Iran's
15:52
Speaker 3: ten point proposal is a workable basis on which to negotiate.
15:56
Speaker 1: However, three clauses have been violated.
15:58
Speaker 3: Number one, non compliance with the first clause of the
16:01
Speaker 3: ten point proposal regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon, a commitment
16:06
Speaker 3: that the Prime Minister has also explicitly referred to and
16:10
Speaker 3: declared as an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions,
16:14
Speaker 3: effective immediately. Number two, the entry of an intruding drone
16:17
Speaker 3: into Iranian airspace which was destroyed in the city of
16:21
Speaker 3: Lar and Forest Province in a clear violation of the
16:24
Speaker 3: clause prohibiting any further violation. That, by the way, it
16:27
Speaker 3: appears to have been and is raelly. Drone number three
16:30
Speaker 3: is denial of Iran's right to enrichment, which was included
16:34
Speaker 3: in the sixth clause of the framework. So look, I mean,
16:38
Speaker 3: we don't have the full ten point proposal, whatever it is,
16:40
Speaker 3: but that's from Iran, that's what they're saying, and that
16:43
Speaker 3: is a total defeat for the United States because it
16:45
Speaker 3: doesn't even just include the Straits of Hormuz. Now, Galibov
16:48
Speaker 3: has followed that up early this morning. Let's go ahead
16:51
Speaker 3: and put this one up there on the screen, guys.
16:53
Speaker 3: He says, Lebanon and the entire resistance Axis, as Iran's allies,
16:58
Speaker 3: form an inseparable part of the sea fire. Prime Minister
17:01
Speaker 3: Shabas Sharif publicly and clearly stressed Lebanon issue. There is
17:05
Speaker 3: no room for denial and backtracking. Ceasefire violations carry explicit costs,
17:10
Speaker 3: and strong responses extinguish the fire immediately.
17:15
Speaker 1: So that is what he said.
17:16
Speaker 3: Now, to be very clear, he is correct about the
17:19
Speaker 3: Prime Minister, Shaibas Sharif.
17:20
Speaker 1: Let's put a four please on the screen.
17:22
Speaker 3: This is the original announcement of the ceasefire from Shabas
17:26
Speaker 3: Sharif of Pakistan. With the greatest humility, I am pleased
17:29
Speaker 3: to announce that the Islamic Republic of irand of the
17:31
Speaker 3: United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed
17:33
Speaker 3: to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately.
17:40
Speaker 3: This was the announcement from Pakistan, which was the interlocutor
17:45
Speaker 3: between the United States and Iran in these talks. Lebanon
17:48
Speaker 3: is explicitly said there. So when the Vice President and
17:52
Speaker 3: the President and the White House all say that this
17:54
Speaker 3: was some sort of confusion, there's no confusion. The confusion
17:57
Speaker 3: is on our end, and it's very clear what happened
17:59
Speaker 3: is that we didn't consult the Israelis haphazardly agree to
18:02
Speaker 3: it and they're.
18:02
Speaker 1: Like, oh, I'm not doing that.
18:04
Speaker 3: They're like, I'm not agreeing to that at all. And again,
18:06
Speaker 3: just further confirmation on that point, here is the Pakistani
18:11
Speaker 3: ambassador to the United Nations explicitly saying Lebanon is included.
18:16
Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson, Mister President.
18:18
Speaker 6: We echo the Secretary General's deep concern regarding the regional
18:22
Speaker 6: military escalation since twenty eighth February, which has gravely undermined
18:26
Speaker 6: the November twenty twenty four Cessasion of Hostilities agreement. The
18:30
Speaker 6: situation in Lebanon cannot be viewed in isolation from this
18:34
Speaker 6: broader escalation across the Middle East. Heightened confrontation and unjustified
18:39
Speaker 6: attacks on several brotherly countries, which Pakistan has condemned, have
18:45
Speaker 6: gravely aggravated regional security and stability. At this critical juncture.
18:51
Speaker 6: Dialogue and diplomacy must prevail over confrontation, de escalation, Restraint
18:57
Speaker 6: and renewed diplomatic engagement are urgently required to prevent further
19:02
Speaker 6: deterioration of the regional security environment. Only through sustained political
19:07
Speaker 6: dialogue and respect for international law can the region move
19:11
Speaker 6: towards stability and peace.
19:14
Speaker 3: So that's where things stand as of this morning. It's
19:16
Speaker 3: early here in the morning. Things could certainly change. Maybe
19:18
Speaker 3: these are is really is back off Lebanon? I don't
19:21
Speaker 3: think so. I highly doubt it. But the US and
19:24
Speaker 3: Iran are not on the same page. The US says
19:27
Speaker 3: that it's a fifteen point plan, which is the basis
19:29
Speaker 3: for negotiations. Those fifteen points were the ones that were
19:32
Speaker 3: reiterated by Steve Wikoff from the very beginning of the war,
19:35
Speaker 3: which said, you have no enrichment, you have no sanctions. Really,
19:39
Speaker 3: if you have to give up all your missiles, you
19:40
Speaker 3: have to give up all your proxies, you have to
19:42
Speaker 3: reopen the straits of Hormves all this different stuff. Iran
19:45
Speaker 3: is saying, we control the straits of Hormonies, we give
19:47
Speaker 3: up all the you give up all the sanctions. We
19:50
Speaker 3: get to keep our missiles, we get to have a
19:52
Speaker 3: ceasefire in Lebanon.
19:54
Speaker 1: Which is it? I have no clue, and I mean
19:57
Speaker 1: right now, I don't know.
19:58
Speaker 3: Maybe this is all a dis but as long as
20:01
Speaker 3: people can sit across the table in Islamabad, I have
20:04
Speaker 3: some hope that something could come out of this. Of course,
20:07
Speaker 3: even if that were to happen, it's not like we
20:08
Speaker 3: haven't bombed them on the cover of darkness or look,
20:12
Speaker 3: we all say, this is the problem here. And the
20:14
Speaker 3: fragility of all of this, and the fact that, by
20:16
Speaker 3: the way reporting is that not a single part of
20:18
Speaker 3: this was written down anywhere. That's why everyone can claim
20:21
Speaker 3: this was agreed to, and that was agreed to. Let's
20:23
Speaker 3: think about it. Ceasefire. The United States forces the ceasefire
20:27
Speaker 3: in Gaza in the opening days of the administration. Great,
20:31
Speaker 3: but guess what happens after thirty days it collapses. Israel
20:33
Speaker 3: gets to do whatever it wants, a twelve day war,
20:36
Speaker 3: We bomb it, everybody declares victory. What happens seven months later,
20:39
Speaker 3: We're back into a regime change war. Even if we
20:41
Speaker 3: do get into an agreement here. I mean, if you're Iran,
20:43
Speaker 3: if any of us, would you really bet against Israel's
20:46
Speaker 3: ability to either sabotage or to drag the United States
20:50
Speaker 3: or convince Trump once again, they'll show them some BS
20:53
Speaker 3: images like look, they're enriching uranium.
20:55
Speaker 1: It's all fake. But who knows, right, Yea, his own advisors.
20:58
Speaker 3: Will tell them it's fake, but maybe he will believe them,
21:01
Speaker 3: Like that's the cycle.
21:03
Speaker 1: We got three more years left of this.
21:04
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just how can you get truly guaranteed
21:07
Speaker 3: that this is going to end?
21:08
Speaker 1: Yeah? You can.
21:09
Speaker 2: Well, And here's the thing too, is Trump has to
21:11
Speaker 2: be able to sell some kind of victory in narrative,
21:13
Speaker 2: at least to his base.
21:15
Speaker 4: Right the rest of.
21:15
Speaker 2: The population is not going to buy it, but at
21:17
Speaker 2: least his base has to believe that this went well
21:20
Speaker 2: for us and we won and we got something out
21:22
Speaker 2: of it. And I don't know how you do that
21:26
Speaker 2: given the state of affairs and what Iran is going
21:29
Speaker 2: to rightly demand. I mean, even if you dramatically water
21:33
Speaker 2: down their ten point proposal, you still have a clear
21:37
Speaker 2: US defeat, which countries around the world are going to recognize,
21:41
Speaker 2: which even Fox News, you know, I watched them a bit,
21:44
Speaker 2: and at first they were very much doing They're like, oh, Trump,
21:47
Speaker 2: art of the deal, and he made this threat and
21:48
Speaker 2: all the Panicans were freaking down. But look at how
21:51
Speaker 2: he was able to secure peace in the world.
21:52
Speaker 4: Blah blah blah.
21:54
Speaker 2: By the next morning, when you had too much reporting
21:57
Speaker 2: on what these ten I mean, we've known about what
22:00
Speaker 2: the ten points are more or less for quite a
22:02
Speaker 2: while now, thanks to the reporting of Ryan and Jeremy
22:04
Speaker 2: and others. But once the mainstream press started having to
22:07
Speaker 2: talk about, well what are these ten points, even Fox
22:10
Speaker 2: News right could no longer be like, look at this
22:13
Speaker 2: marvelous victory, because we're talking about reparations, we're talking about
22:17
Speaker 2: complete sanctions, relief, and we're talking about a new status
22:21
Speaker 2: quo in the strait of horror moves that amounts to
22:25
Speaker 2: tens of at the least tens of billions of dollars
22:28
Speaker 2: Morgans revenue into Iran's coffers.
22:30
Speaker 3: JP Morgan said it would be ninety two billion a
22:32
Speaker 3: year if they just chur charge the one million dollar
22:35
Speaker 3: a barrel fee, that would make them be one of
22:37
Speaker 3: the richest countries in the entire Middle East. I mean,
22:40
Speaker 3: I would put a marker down twenty five years from
22:43
Speaker 3: now if they get anything remotely close to this, either
22:45
Speaker 3: sanctions relief or some sort of oil, they will be
22:48
Speaker 3: as rich, if not richer, than the uae Yea and
22:51
Speaker 3: these other places.
22:52
Speaker 2: It's already a middle income country that has been dramatically hurt,
22:55
Speaker 2: certainly by our sanctions. But this is a relatively well developed,
23:00
Speaker 2: educated country with a lot looking for them and obviously
23:04
Speaker 2: naturally obviously very strategic positioning. And look, that's why when
23:07
Speaker 2: Robert Pape says they have now emerged as a new
23:10
Speaker 2: fourth World power, I don't think that that is overstating
23:13
Speaker 2: the case whatsoever. And so that's what makes it so
23:17
Speaker 2: difficult to see how this has resolved and why. Obviously,
23:20
Speaker 2: the decision to get into this disastrous war was such
23:22
Speaker 2: a horrific, catastrophic mistake from the interests of the US
23:26
Speaker 2: Empire perspective, because in order to bring it to a close,
23:30
Speaker 2: you are going to have to agree to something like
23:33
Speaker 2: what those ten points from the Iranians are. And I
23:37
Speaker 2: just I don't know if even Donald Trump, who is
23:39
Speaker 2: perhaps the greatest bullshit artist in history, if even he
23:43
Speaker 2: can sell that as some sort of a victory to
23:46
Speaker 2: his base in this country.
23:49
Speaker 3: But let's turn to Lebanon, just to give people a
23:51
Speaker 3: very clear view into what's happening over there. We had
23:53
Speaker 3: this announcement from the IDF, by the way, after the ceasefire.
23:58
Speaker 1: Here's what they had to say.
24:00
Speaker 9: We have just carried out the largest strike against Hisbala
24:02
Speaker 9: terrorists since the beginning of Operation Roaring Line. In just
24:06
Speaker 9: one minute. The idea of struck a hundred Kizballa military
24:09
Speaker 9: targets in different locations across Lebanon. The targets include command centers,
24:14
Speaker 9: missile infrastructure and assets used by the Raaduan special Forces.
24:18
Speaker 9: This operation was based on weeks of precise intelligence and
24:22
Speaker 9: careful planning. These strikes come as Kribala changes the way
24:26
Speaker 9: it is operating. In recent weeks, the Idea of Intelligence
24:29
Speaker 9: identified Chrisbala moving beyond its usual struggles and building positions
24:34
Speaker 9: and more areas across Lebanon, including civilian neighborhoods. Kibala's use
24:40
Speaker 9: of civilians as human shields is their strategy. Krizbala dragged
24:45
Speaker 9: Lebanon into this war and it is now trying to
24:48
Speaker 9: spread that danger to even more Lebanese communities. Our message
24:52
Speaker 9: is clear, we are fighting Kisbala, not the people of Lebanon.
24:56
Speaker 9: We said this from day one. We will not allow
25:00
Speaker 9: Chrisbala to pose a threat.
25:01
Speaker 1: To our civilians.
25:03
Speaker 3: Interesting accent uns clearly almost like us from around here. Anyway,
25:08
Speaker 3: if you take a look at what that gentleman was
25:11
Speaker 3: saying about, they're not at war with the people of Lebanon.
25:14
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and play some of a seven, shall we.
25:18
Speaker 3: This is what the strikes were in the middle of
25:20
Speaker 3: Beirut and in Lebanon. You can clearly see smoke and
25:24
Speaker 3: apartment buildings and all of these civilian areas. The Belgian
25:29
Speaker 3: foreign minister yesterday actually revealed that he was in Lebanon
25:34
Speaker 3: while this was happening and had to take shelter from
25:37
Speaker 3: very close to where the strikes were happened. Imagine our
25:39
Speaker 3: secretary of state, so this is a European Union foreign
25:42
Speaker 3: minister who's literally in the country, had no idea that
25:45
Speaker 3: this was happening. You could see some of the rubble
25:48
Speaker 3: children and civilians and others that were buried underneath, Israel
25:52
Speaker 3: taking credit saying oh, well, we killed about two hundred
25:55
Speaker 3: Hesbola commanders as a result of this operation. The operation,
25:59
Speaker 3: by the way, is called Operation Eternal Darkness.
26:03
Speaker 1: I did not make that up. They did, which.
26:06
Speaker 3: Tucker's episode made clear to me. Again, as a secular person,
26:09
Speaker 3: I wasn't aware. That's apparently how they refer to hell
26:12
Speaker 3: in the Bible, in the New Testament, so potentially a
26:16
Speaker 3: a biblical meaning intended in.
26:19
Speaker 10: Some of this.
26:19
Speaker 3: Let's put eight up there as well, just to show
26:22
Speaker 3: you all. This was one which appeared to be a
26:26
Speaker 3: funeral which was struck, and you can see actually some
26:30
Speaker 3: of the caskets and other things of the damage that
26:33
Speaker 3: was done there. Again, I'm sure that they're claiming it
26:35
Speaker 3: was has Bolla funeral. Possible, not really usual in terms
26:40
Speaker 3: of most Western countries, but of course par for the
26:42
Speaker 3: course drop site has the round up here.
26:44
Speaker 1: Let's put it up there.
26:45
Speaker 3: In terms of the death toll, they say Israeli strikes
26:48
Speaker 3: to kill two hundred and fifty four and wounded one
26:51
Speaker 3: thousand across Lebanon from is Lebanon Civil Defense. The figures
26:55
Speaker 3: represent the toll for a single day. Based on the data,
26:58
Speaker 3: Beirut had ninety two kills, seven hundred and forty two injured,
27:01
Speaker 3: the southern suburbs had sixty one two hundred injured, and
27:04
Speaker 3: then various other districts all across the country you could
27:07
Speaker 3: see with dozens killed and multiple hundreds of people that
27:11
Speaker 3: were injured as a result of the strike. So that's
27:15
Speaker 3: what's happening right now. Not to mention, let's put a
27:18
Speaker 3: ten up there on the screen. This part is very relevant. Crystal,
27:21
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain all reported attacks
27:26
Speaker 3: after the Iran US truce. Now you may say, wow,
27:29
Speaker 3: crazy Iran, why would they do something like that.
27:32
Speaker 1: It turns out though.
27:33
Speaker 3: That there was a very mysterious attack again after the
27:37
Speaker 3: truce or the fragile truce was struck, in which Iran
27:41
Speaker 3: reported that a key energy strike of it or energy
27:45
Speaker 3: site of it was struck. Now, we do not yet
27:48
Speaker 3: know who carried out that strike. The United States military
27:52
Speaker 3: has said it wasn't them. The Israelis have not said either.
27:56
Speaker 3: There is some speculation inside of Iran that this was
28:00
Speaker 3: the United Arab Emirates that carried out this strike. Now
28:03
Speaker 3: why does that matter, because as we have said here
28:05
Speaker 3: now at nauseum, it's not just Israel that doesn't want
28:09
Speaker 3: this truth. The Golf finds it untenable. They're like, we
28:13
Speaker 3: can't be paying the Iranians, not after they've bombed the
28:16
Speaker 3: hell out of all of our countries. And that's why
28:18
Speaker 3: I think Iran was so forceful in its reaction against
28:22
Speaker 3: all the golf countries, not just because they believe it
28:25
Speaker 3: was a UAE.
28:26
Speaker 1: Clearly they think that it was.
28:27
Speaker 3: But that's why they struck the East West Pipeline in
28:30
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, That's why they struck oil infrastructure and Bahrain
28:33
Speaker 3: oil infrastructure in the UAE. It was a message also
28:36
Speaker 3: to the Gulf, so don't just forget. It's not just
28:38
Speaker 3: Israel that wants to drag us back in. It's these
28:40
Speaker 3: golf countries too, because for them, a truth, particularly ua
28:44
Speaker 3: In particularly they've been I mean, they're not even hiding it.
28:46
Speaker 3: They went before the UN to try and authorize a
28:48
Speaker 3: use of force resolution. Like, they're pretty open they want
28:51
Speaker 3: regime change. They're boosters all over Twitter. You can go
28:54
Speaker 3: and look are like this is unacceptable. We need regime
28:56
Speaker 3: change right now. So their aims are explicit at this point.
28:59
Speaker 2: I mean, for I would say it's more existential for
29:02
Speaker 2: UAE than it is for isram In Israels, duclear arms.
29:05
Speaker 2: You know, they throw their weight around. Obviously they've still
29:07
Speaker 2: got our backing, et cetera. UAE has been exposed as
29:10
Speaker 2: completely vulnerable. I mean, this is basically sort of like
29:13
Speaker 2: a fake state to begin with. And so they now
29:15
Speaker 2: that they're in this position like okay, how is how
29:19
Speaker 2: are Dubai and Abu Dhabi ever going to come back?
29:22
Speaker 2: So long as we have the specter of this same
29:24
Speaker 2: government in power that was hitting our high rise luxury hotels,
29:28
Speaker 2: and you know, all of the ex wealthy expats are fleeing,
29:31
Speaker 2: and probably a lot of the indentured servant labor force
29:34
Speaker 2: exploited labor force will also look for greener pastures as well.
29:38
Speaker 2: So they feel that this is quite existential for them,
29:41
Speaker 2: and I don't think that they're wrong about that. So
29:43
Speaker 2: that's why they are now so committed that they they're
29:46
Speaker 2: the ones that went to the UN to try to
29:48
Speaker 2: pass this resolution through Security Council which failed to open
29:51
Speaker 2: the straight up horn moves by any means necessary. That
29:54
Speaker 2: was the provision they took to the resolution they took
29:56
Speaker 2: to the UN. And then they've also said they which
30:00
Speaker 2: is why it is not at all unbelievable that they
30:02
Speaker 2: were behind these strikes, that they would join directly as
30:05
Speaker 2: direct combatants, not just allowing us use of their space
30:09
Speaker 2: and cooperating, but actually directly joining themselves as combatants. So
30:13
Speaker 2: that appears to be what may be happening right now.
30:16
Speaker 2: Just with regard to Lebanon, the level of death and
30:20
Speaker 2: destruction here is just really horrifying, the attacks on medics,
30:24
Speaker 2: the attacks on civilian apartment buildings, the attacks on all
30:29
Speaker 2: the infrastructure there. And it's worth keeping in mind the
30:32
Speaker 2: Dahia doctrine, which many of you will have heard about.
30:34
Speaker 2: This came because Dahia is a Shia section of bay Rout.
30:39
Speaker 2: This comes directly out of Israel's war in Lebanon in
30:43
Speaker 2: two thousand and six, and the idea is that you
30:45
Speaker 2: bomb the hell on of civilian infrastructure and put pressure
30:49
Speaker 2: on them so that Hezbolah or in the case of Gaza,
30:52
Speaker 2: so that Hamas loses public support. Now this has not
30:55
Speaker 2: been effective in terms of a strategy. It turns out
30:58
Speaker 2: to just be basically seeking blood lust and to satiate
31:01
Speaker 2: a society that is increasingly genocidal. But that comes directly
31:05
Speaker 2: out of Lebanon. That appears to be very much what
31:06
Speaker 2: they're doing here as well. BB we're going to talk
31:09
Speaker 2: more about this later, has made it clear he doesn't
31:11
Speaker 2: want the war over a lot of the most stringent Zionists,
31:15
Speaker 2: both here and in Israel, they are very upset with
31:18
Speaker 2: the possibility that the war could be over. They want
31:21
Speaker 2: to continue this thing, and definitely they at least want
31:24
Speaker 2: to be able to go back to sort of mow
31:25
Speaker 2: the lawn strategy with regard to Iran, and so they
31:28
Speaker 2: are doing everything they can to blow up any even
31:33
Speaker 2: shred of a possibility of ending the war. And so
31:36
Speaker 2: not only are they continuing with their illegal invasion of Lebanon,
31:40
Speaker 2: which apparently doesn't have a right to exist, and like Israel,
31:42
Speaker 2: which we're told about all the time, but anyway, they're
31:44
Speaker 2: continuing with that invasion, but they also escalated it dramatically
31:48
Speaker 2: and the level of death is comparable to some of
31:51
Speaker 2: the worst days that we saw in Gaza. Just mass slaughtering,
31:55
Speaker 2: and you could see that in the image.
31:56
Speaker 1: And yeah, sorry, I tweeted about this ethnic cleansing you
32:00
Speaker 1: talking about.
32:00
Speaker 3: They literally said a million of you have to go,
32:03
Speaker 3: and anybody that wants to come back can't come back
32:07
Speaker 3: near the border.
32:07
Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you call that?
32:09
Speaker 2: Like they warned Christians against hiding, I know, she and Muslims.
32:13
Speaker 2: It's like, I mean, the look, sorry, the parallels with
32:16
Speaker 2: the Nazi regime could not be more undeniable.
32:18
Speaker 3: I'm just like, look, you know, take the rhetoric for
32:21
Speaker 3: what it is. You can look at the IDF account.
32:23
Speaker 3: They drew a map, it's almost half a Lebanon and
32:26
Speaker 3: they said everyone below the map has to leave.
32:29
Speaker 1: What do you call that? Just tell me what? Tell
32:31
Speaker 1: me a better one?
32:31
Speaker 3: A temporary evacuation in which, by the way, they also say,
32:35
Speaker 3: we will never allow those homes to be rebuilt near
32:37
Speaker 3: our border. That's like us going into northern Mexico and
32:41
Speaker 3: what's the city across from across Malpaso and just being like, yeah,
32:44
Speaker 3: you all got to go. Sorry, there's too much drug violence,
32:46
Speaker 3: every single one of you. You're no longer as they have.
32:49
Speaker 2: Completely destroyed a number of Lebanese villages, just wiped them
32:54
Speaker 2: off the map, Like that is what they're that is
32:56
Speaker 2: what they're up to here, And so yeah, you can
32:58
Speaker 2: see from the Iranian person expective. First of all, you've
33:01
Speaker 2: got just the horror of allowing that to continue. Second
33:05
Speaker 2: of all, hesbel is an important part of how they
33:07
Speaker 2: do project regional power, and Hesblah has proven a lot
33:10
Speaker 2: of the analysis wrong. I mean, they were really seen
33:14
Speaker 2: to have been effectively destroyed and dramatically weakened by the
33:20
Speaker 2: beeper attack from Israel, and obviously their top leadership had
33:24
Speaker 2: been assassinated, etc. They've proven to be much more resilient
33:27
Speaker 2: and much stronger than was expected. They've operated very effectively
33:31
Speaker 2: in coordination with Iran. So Iran is not going to
33:34
Speaker 2: be excited about seeing that capability and that force projection
33:39
Speaker 2: given up. So yeah, you can see why Iran is
33:42
Speaker 2: drawing a hard line in the sand on this and
33:44
Speaker 2: has been clear from the very first time we learned
33:47
Speaker 2: anything about what their requirements were to end the war.
33:50
Speaker 2: Lebanon was included in that. And if Trump and JD.
33:54
Speaker 2: Vance and Steve Witcoff and Jared Kushner thought that the
33:57
Speaker 2: Iranians would just go well, I guess Lebanon can continue
34:00
Speaker 2: to get decimated and has Bellot destroyed, and we'll just
34:03
Speaker 2: look the other way. I think we already see that
34:05
Speaker 2: that was a completely wrong calculation, as evidenced by the
34:09
Speaker 2: fact not only the rhetoric from the Iranians, which is
34:11
Speaker 2: one thing, but the fact that they went ahead and
34:13
Speaker 2: completely closed the Strait of Hormus. Now where previously there
34:17
Speaker 2: was some tanker traffic going through, now the situation is
34:20
Speaker 2: actually worse. Yesterday there were zero oil tankers that went
34:24
Speaker 2: through the Strait of Hormuves based on the publicly available data.
34:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, right, we got Janis stning by. Let's
34:28
Speaker 1: get to it.
34:32
Speaker 2: For more on the state of the war or this
34:35
Speaker 2: quote unquote ceasefire. We're fortunate to be joined this morning
34:38
Speaker 2: by Yannis fair Fawcacy, of course, is the former Finance
34:40
Speaker 2: Minister of Greece and host of the Ekana Class podcast.
34:44
Speaker 1: Great to see Sar, Good to see you, Thank you
34:46
Speaker 1: for having me back.
34:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, of course, So first just your reaction to whatever
34:51
Speaker 2: is going on right now. Do you think that it's
34:53
Speaker 2: possible we could secure some sort of a lasting peace
34:56
Speaker 2: here or is this already fallen apart.
35:00
Speaker 10: I don't think it's fallen apart.
35:01
Speaker 7: I mean, allow me to preface my assessment with my
35:06
Speaker 7: astonishment that you know, Donald Trump persecuted the war, which
35:11
Speaker 7: is a textbook case of how not to start the war,
35:14
Speaker 7: how not to prosecute it, and how not to ended.
35:18
Speaker 7: The essence of this is fire is, of course, as
35:20
Speaker 7: you're pointing out in your program, so far, it's just
35:24
Speaker 7: a totally dramshackle it's a mess. But even though you
35:30
Speaker 7: can see that it is being undermined by Israel, there
35:34
Speaker 7: isn't mind Nadania who continues to commit massacres, not just
35:38
Speaker 7: to continue to persecute the war in Lebanon, but actually
35:41
Speaker 7: you know he app the end with what can only
35:45
Speaker 7: be described as a massacre at the end the other
35:47
Speaker 7: day in response to this is Fire. It's because Nathania
35:50
Speaker 7: is trying to undermine the is fire. Netanya, who's mantle
35:54
Speaker 7: has always been has always been permanent war in the area,
35:59
Speaker 7: constantly trying to distract public opinion in the United states
36:03
Speaker 7: in Europe, in the rest of the world, from the
36:06
Speaker 7: genocide in Gaza, from the ethnic cleansing in particular in
36:09
Speaker 7: the West Bank and in his Jerusalem. So he will
36:12
Speaker 7: do whatever it takes to make sure that some war
36:14
Speaker 7: is happening. It doesn't necessarily need to be Lebanon. It
36:17
Speaker 7: can be in Yemen, it can be in Jordan, it
36:19
Speaker 7: can be somewhere. And you know, he still has Donald
36:22
Speaker 7: Trump hooked, because there is no doubt in my mind
36:25
Speaker 7: that when the Pakistani general Field Marshal whatever his title is,
36:32
Speaker 7: when he announced that Lebanon was included.
36:35
Speaker 10: This is fire.
36:35
Speaker 7: Surely he didn't do this without the support of the
36:38
Speaker 7: Trump administration. So clearly that is undermining Trump. That's what
36:44
Speaker 7: Israel does. It undermines the interests of the United States
36:48
Speaker 7: and always succeeds in roping the United States into its
36:54
Speaker 7: ethnic cleansing genocidal campaign.
36:57
Speaker 10: So that's point number one. Point number two is that the.
37:00
Speaker 7: Deal that is being fashioned as we speak is a
37:05
Speaker 7: major victory for Iran. I mean, did you see what
37:09
Speaker 7: JP Morgan did. I mean, they did the arithmetic and
37:11
Speaker 7: they discovered that the state of Iran is going to
37:16
Speaker 7: make out of charging tolls on vessels crossing the states
37:21
Speaker 7: of Homemose. They will make something between seventeen ninety billion
37:24
Speaker 7: dollars a year. It's important to juxtapose this against what
37:29
Speaker 7: Panama makes from the Panama Canal it makes five, or
37:33
Speaker 7: you know, Egypt from the Swiss Canal it makes ten.
37:35
Speaker 7: So the range Is are going to be making between
37:36
Speaker 7: seventeen ninety billion this given the sanctions on this represents
37:41
Speaker 7: around twenty twenty five percent of national income of GDP.
37:45
Speaker 7: They've come out pretty nicely out of this. They have
37:49
Speaker 7: had the consent of the Gulf states that they were
37:54
Speaker 7: bombarding and in my view, in self defense, but nevertheless
37:58
Speaker 7: they were bombarding Katar, the United Arab Eminence and those
38:02
Speaker 7: the g c c C countries, the Gulf State Council
38:07
Speaker 7: countries have consented to these thoughts being charged, it seems
38:12
Speaker 7: from what I read.
38:13
Speaker 10: So it is a complete.
38:15
Speaker 7: Catastrophe for Donald Trump. But there is one silver lining
38:19
Speaker 7: for him that you know, he's found an excuse and
38:24
Speaker 7: no frump for getting out of the war that he
38:27
Speaker 7: knows he should never have allowed himself to get into.
38:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, sir, one thing, I'm curious an angle that we've
38:34
Speaker 3: seen under explored here is how much of this sea
38:37
Speaker 3: spire was just the United States. There was some reporting.
38:41
Speaker 3: Let's put be one up there on the screen. The
38:43
Speaker 3: Chinese Foreign Ministry now coming out and taking a significant
38:47
Speaker 3: amount of credit. Allegedly it was them who made several
38:51
Speaker 3: calls to Tehran to try and to force some sort
38:54
Speaker 3: of a sea spire or at the very least get
38:57
Speaker 3: them to the table. It seems to have been very
38:59
Speaker 3: influential to the new Ayatola and to the Supreme National
39:03
Speaker 3: Security Council in Iran. What do you make here of
39:06
Speaker 3: China's role in explicitly pushing this role towards a ceasefire
39:10
Speaker 3: and in some ways working as some sort of an
39:13
Speaker 3: intermediate or almost guarantee guarantur of parts of Iranian national
39:18
Speaker 3: security and energy policy.
39:20
Speaker 7: There is no doubt whatsoever that a great winner out
39:25
Speaker 7: of this awful, murderous war is China.
39:28
Speaker 10: China.
39:30
Speaker 7: For the moment that tomahawk missile hit that school in
39:33
Speaker 7: southern Iran onwards, China has been winning.
39:37
Speaker 10: They don't need to do anything. They just need to
39:39
Speaker 10: sit back.
39:40
Speaker 7: Relax to the extend that is possible to relax these
39:43
Speaker 7: days with the massacres that we watch, and just take
39:46
Speaker 7: the credit for being the adults in the room internationally,
39:49
Speaker 7: for being reliable partners to anyone that they have done
39:52
Speaker 7: business with, of not flip flopping, of not threatening with armageddon,
39:57
Speaker 7: and you know, a civilization like Iran or any country
39:59
Speaker 7: for that matter. Now regarding the particular diplomatic engagement of China,
40:04
Speaker 7: well this is not the first time, is it. Let's
40:07
Speaker 7: not forget that it was China that brokered a hugely
40:13
Speaker 7: important deal between Iran and on the one hand, Saudi
40:18
Speaker 7: Arabia that was back in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one.
40:22
Speaker 7: And then with the United Arab Emirates, you know, the
40:25
Speaker 7: Saudist after decades of animosity towards the run, opened an
40:30
Speaker 7: embassy in Tehran, and that was done with the Chinese
40:35
Speaker 7: working their diplomatic magic behind the scenes. It was a
40:40
Speaker 7: source of major, major discontentment from Washington Disease, both under
40:45
Speaker 7: the Biden administration and now under Trump. But you know,
40:49
Speaker 7: China has been playing this game very cleverly. Having said that,
40:54
Speaker 7: let's not give them too much credit for it, because
40:57
Speaker 7: you know, it is as if Washington Disease doing its
40:59
Speaker 7: best to lose every diplomatic brownie point America has ever
41:03
Speaker 7: won since ninety fourty four.
41:06
Speaker 2: Well, and equally perhaps significant is the lack of involvement
41:10
Speaker 2: from Europe in securing at least this you know, fragile
41:13
Speaker 2: ce is far or whatever we're calling this thing right now.
41:16
Speaker 2: China was obviously involved, Pakistan very much involved, Turkey reportedly,
41:20
Speaker 2: and Egypt somewhat involved, but you know, the main players
41:23
Speaker 2: are not in Western Europe.
41:26
Speaker 7: Sadly, I'm saying sadly as a European and a Europeanist
41:30
Speaker 7: who has been observing this European Union of ours sliding
41:36
Speaker 7: steadfastly into an an ethically irrelevant the moment we not
41:42
Speaker 7: we as persons, but as the European Union went all
41:46
Speaker 7: out to support Israel, Juan Side and ASA, we lost
41:49
Speaker 7: every kind of opportunity that ever presented itself to occupy
41:55
Speaker 7: the high moral ground, to open lines of communication with
41:59
Speaker 7: Arab cant Is, with Israel itself. Because you know, Nata
42:03
Speaker 7: Yahu looks at the European leaders and since Lily patins
42:06
Speaker 7: that he can do whatever he can wipe the floor
42:08
Speaker 7: clean with them, and they make safety things here and there,
42:12
Speaker 7: but then they will fall into line and the moment
42:16
Speaker 7: Israel starts bombarding Iran illegally and criminally. The Europeans, you know,
42:21
Speaker 7: either whistle in the wind or allow the Americans to
42:25
Speaker 7: use their bases like the British base on Cyprus and
42:27
Speaker 7: a crowdilli that Kirstamer, whatever he might might have said
42:31
Speaker 7: against the Donald Trump campaign, he run essentially provided to
42:34
Speaker 7: the United States Air Force to launch sorties against Iran.
42:38
Speaker 7: So the Europeans have rendered themselves and ethically irrelevant yet again.
42:43
Speaker 10: And you know it's.
42:46
Speaker 7: It's I have a theory because I was involved in
42:49
Speaker 7: the Great euro Crisis ten years ago. And beyond that,
42:53
Speaker 7: it's their euro crisis the way we missundered it. You know,
42:57
Speaker 7: the parers that be crushed our populations with hosteate for
43:00
Speaker 7: the many while printing trillions and trillions of yuros for
43:03
Speaker 7: the very few. We don't have a government, We have
43:06
Speaker 7: many different governments. We have a commission that nobody has
43:08
Speaker 7: ever elected, so it lacks democratic credibility, legitimation. And you
43:15
Speaker 7: can see that ever since that euro crisis happened, and
43:19
Speaker 7: then with the pandemic, it was a pathetic response to
43:22
Speaker 7: the pandemic. You know, has of state got together and
43:25
Speaker 7: decided to borrow together some like eight hundred billion, and
43:28
Speaker 7: they started passing it on from one country to another
43:31
Speaker 7: as if this was, you know, some kind of of
43:35
Speaker 7: meeting of the mafiosid delving delving, diving up between them
43:41
Speaker 7: some loot. So Europe has been on a steady decline
43:46
Speaker 7: for a very long time, and you can see this
43:47
Speaker 7: now we're you know, playing out just strategically. Also the
43:50
Speaker 7: situation in Ukraine. I mean, it is an idle mess.
43:56
Speaker 7: The European policy towards Ukraine. They don't have a policy
43:58
Speaker 7: for peace in Ukraine and they don't have a policy
44:01
Speaker 7: for war in Ukraine.
44:02
Speaker 10: I think that says you all right, you.
44:04
Speaker 7: Know, sir.
44:04
Speaker 3: I want to get your reaction to some of the
44:06
Speaker 3: later breaking news heir out of Washington. There is an
44:09
Speaker 3: alleged comment by Mark Rutt that he told NATO countries
44:14
Speaker 3: that they must dispatch warships or Donald Trump will threaten
44:18
Speaker 3: some sort of action against NATO. How do you see
44:22
Speaker 3: the likelihood of this Considering NATO's straddling game that they've
44:26
Speaker 3: been playing. They've been supportive of the United States, they've
44:29
Speaker 3: also been largely support of the US aims, at the
44:31
Speaker 3: very least rhetorically in some sort of Iranian regime change
44:34
Speaker 3: or ballistic missile reduction, but also.
44:36
Speaker 1: Not wanting to get involved in the crisis.
44:38
Speaker 3: How are they going to handle this if the US
44:41
Speaker 3: continues to try and put pressure on them to deploy warships,
44:44
Speaker 3: even now in the midst of a ceasefire to the
44:46
Speaker 3: Straits of Hormuz.
44:48
Speaker 7: Well, to begin with it, whether warships are deployed or
44:52
Speaker 7: not is irrelevant, because you know, if you're sitting on
44:56
Speaker 7: Iran and you have your missiles and your drones, you
44:58
Speaker 7: don't care about warships. All you need to do is
45:01
Speaker 7: to get one of the tankers or two. That's sufficient.
45:05
Speaker 7: So those warships are going to be fighting a losing battle.
45:09
Speaker 10: Now.
45:09
Speaker 7: Look, the more interesting question is why did Donald Trump
45:12
Speaker 7: and his merry men mostly men, Why did they contradict
45:19
Speaker 7: themselves Because on the one hand, Donald Trump has been
45:21
Speaker 7: dismissing Britain, Germany, France as military dwarfs, and he's not
45:27
Speaker 7: wrong to say that. You know, Britain couldn't even send
45:30
Speaker 7: a single vessel to the Gulf. They just didn't have it.
45:33
Speaker 7: They didn't, it wasn't available. One that did dissent had
45:38
Speaker 7: to be turne back for servicing. So you know, that
45:45
Speaker 7: was a strategy donald Trump, disparaging the Europeans as useless
45:48
Speaker 7: militarily and therefore saying that, you know, NATO is a
45:52
Speaker 7: great train on the United States and forcing the Europeans
45:55
Speaker 7: to pay more. Since you can't do the work, the
45:58
Speaker 7: defensive war offensive work, and you rely on Americans to
46:01
Speaker 7: do it, you pay you rascals. That that was the
46:04
Speaker 7: kind of position by Donald Trump and his administration. Now
46:10
Speaker 7: that he's calling upon the Europeans to come and help
46:12
Speaker 7: him clear the States of her moves, it is as
46:15
Speaker 7: if he's saying he is admitting that they do have
46:17
Speaker 7: a power which they are however not using, so he
46:20
Speaker 7: has to. You know, it shows desperation on the part
46:23
Speaker 7: of Donald Trump and his administration. He had a strategy
46:26
Speaker 7: which made some sense of being dismissive to the Europeans.
46:30
Speaker 10: Now he's contradicting himself.
46:33
Speaker 7: Look, the future of NATO is severely circumscribed and darkened
46:41
Speaker 7: by what has happened. I think that the belief, the
46:45
Speaker 7: faith in some kind of alignment that is structurally constructed
46:52
Speaker 7: between the United States and the European Union, I think
46:55
Speaker 7: that's gone, and that's gone independently of who is in
46:57
Speaker 7: the White House. It's going to be eroded. Thing's a
47:00
Speaker 7: good thing personally, because it was never in the interest
47:02
Speaker 7: of Europe. In the end, it wasn't the interest of
47:05
Speaker 7: the people of the United States. Maybe the military industrial
47:09
Speaker 7: complex did really very well out of that. But you know,
47:12
Speaker 7: Europe now is in dire straits. They have to decide
47:17
Speaker 7: that NATO is not for them, that NATO is not
47:20
Speaker 7: in their interest anymore. They can't decide that because they
47:22
Speaker 7: are so heavily invested in the concept of NATO. So
47:25
Speaker 7: there will be like, you know, rabbits that are caught
47:30
Speaker 7: up in the headlights of the oncoming truck.
47:33
Speaker 2: Be honest, I want to get your perspective on how
47:35
Speaker 2: much the world has changed as a result of this war,
47:39
Speaker 2: whether it's right now they're able to come to an
47:42
Speaker 2: agreement or the Americans decide they want more pain before
47:45
Speaker 2: we come to some sort of an agreement to end
47:47
Speaker 2: this war. I think we can see basically the outlines
47:50
Speaker 2: of what is going to emerge a very likely to
47:52
Speaker 2: have more or less the Iranian ten points, you know,
47:56
Speaker 2: put into interaction, including a new status quo, a new
47:59
Speaker 2: reality around the straight of worm moves. So how much
48:03
Speaker 2: does that resolution this war change the global order.
48:07
Speaker 10: Oh hugely. Firstly, it changed the law of the sea.
48:11
Speaker 7: You know, up until now, the notion that you'd have
48:15
Speaker 7: to pay at all in order to cross through international
48:17
Speaker 7: waters was unheard of. Don'td Trump put this on the pap.
48:21
Speaker 7: And you know, if the Anians managed to do this
48:25
Speaker 7: in order to recoup some of the funds that are
48:29
Speaker 7: necessary in order to rebuild that which Israel and the
48:32
Speaker 7: United States destroyed during the last few weeks, well what next?
48:38
Speaker 7: Maybe the Hoodahs will start charging for letting vessels go
48:41
Speaker 7: through the Red Sea. Maybe other nations or groups or
48:45
Speaker 7: organizations will start doing the same thing. A president has
48:48
Speaker 7: been set, so international law has been changed, mind you.
48:50
Speaker 7: Of course, international law was totally rubbished by Israel every
48:54
Speaker 7: time it ethnically cleans the Palestinians in Naza against the
49:00
Speaker 7: direct order of the international criminal not criminal in the
49:04
Speaker 7: International Court of Justice. I should say, the United States
49:08
Speaker 7: has done this a number of times, the illegal invasion
49:11
Speaker 7: of Iraq in two thousand and three by George W.
49:14
Speaker 7: So you know, but still the law of the sea
49:18
Speaker 7: had not been challenged to such a vicious extent. Now
49:22
Speaker 7: it is in Smithians. Also, the fact that the Golf
49:28
Speaker 7: States will have to rewrite, at least in their minds,
49:33
Speaker 7: their business model. Their business model is put, it cannot
49:37
Speaker 7: continue as it is. And the Golf States were crucial
49:41
Speaker 7: in the American design of the Middle East, all the
49:46
Speaker 7: way from Morocco, all the way to Iran, maybe all
49:49
Speaker 7: the way to Pakistan. There was a plan for how
49:52
Speaker 7: to base the strategy of the United States and of Israel,
49:56
Speaker 7: and the Abraham Accurds of effectively alluring alph States, the
50:01
Speaker 7: Gulf States into some kind of geo economic alliance with
50:06
Speaker 7: the United States and with Israel. That would you know,
50:09
Speaker 7: be the thirty pieces of silver that they needed, you know,
50:12
Speaker 7: to betray further than Palestinians.
50:14
Speaker 10: And that's gone. That that plan has gone.
50:16
Speaker 7: And as you said in your previous question, now we
50:19
Speaker 7: have a resurgent Chinese diplomacy that is working very methodically
50:23
Speaker 7: behind the scenes, providing the stability and the trust that
50:28
Speaker 7: the United States has so casually jeopardized.
50:33
Speaker 3: Wow, stark warning, but as great always good analysis. Thank
50:36
Speaker 3: you very much, sir. We appreciate your time.
50:39
Speaker 10: Thank you