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Holiday Consumer Spending, Update on Starbucks Worker Strike · Bloomberg Intelligence

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0:23
Speaker 1: Let's go to Starbucks.
0:24
Speaker 3: Here, thousands of Starbucks workers who walked off the job
0:27
Speaker 3: have concluded.
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Speaker 1: What a minute.
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Speaker 3: It's about a five day strike against the coffee giant.
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Speaker 3: From Rollness, we're joined by Bloomberg's Emily Cohne. Emily, thanks for
0:35
Speaker 3: coming into studio. You get the gold star for coming
0:38
Speaker 3: in the studio. We appreciate that the coveted gold star.
0:41
Speaker 4: I did it.
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Speaker 1: What's going on to Starbucks? Why are they striking?
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Speaker 4: So? Starbucks workers have been in a bitter battle with
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Speaker 4: the company for since twenty twenty one, end of twenty
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Speaker 4: twenty one, when the first store voted to unionize. So
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Speaker 4: they have this growing union presence at Starbucks. I think
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Speaker 4: about five percent of their stores are unionized now and
1:03
Speaker 4: they're in the final stages of negotiating their union contract.
1:06
Speaker 4: So that final stage is when you start talking about
1:08
Speaker 4: money and wages and all the really contentious stuff. So
1:13
Speaker 4: the company is alleging that the union walked off the
1:18
Speaker 4: left the negotiating table prematurely. The union is saying Starbucks
1:22
Speaker 4: came to the table with no raise offers, so that
1:26
Speaker 4: led to this strike that lasted five days. The last
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Speaker 4: day was Christmas Eve. This is a really important time
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Speaker 4: for Starbucks. People stop into the store to get lattes
1:36
Speaker 4: while they're doing their last minute shopping. They're buying gift
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Speaker 4: cards as stocking stuffers. But only about two percent of
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Speaker 4: their stores actually closed as a result of that the strike,
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Speaker 4: so probably not a huge impact on the business, but
1:51
Speaker 4: definitely a morale hit for the company. This is something
1:55
Speaker 4: that we're all talking about that we all noticed. There
1:57
Speaker 4: were lots of headlines about it, so about it's unclear
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Speaker 4: about how many stores strike. It was like probably between
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Speaker 4: two hundred and three hundred between what the union is
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Speaker 4: saying what the company is saying. That's a small percentage
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Speaker 4: of their ten thousand stores, but definitely got a lot
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Speaker 4: of attention.
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Speaker 5: Just ask you to sort of give us some context
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Speaker 5: into how this holiday retail season went. Now that we're
2:21
Speaker 5: sort of piecing together how many people went out in
2:23
Speaker 5: shopping stories and online and all of that. What are
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Speaker 5: you kind of tracking or following here in the waning
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Speaker 5: days of twenty twenty four when it comes to just
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Speaker 5: sort of how the consumer performed at the end of
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Speaker 5: the year.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good question. I think we're seeing a
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Speaker 4: lot of what we have seen throughout the year, which
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Speaker 4: is what we talk about we call the bifurcation of
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Speaker 4: consumer spending, where we see the upper income consumer households
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Speaker 4: making one hundred thousand dollars or more a year doing
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Speaker 4: quite well. They're splurging on gifts, they're getting out there
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Speaker 4: and they're shopping. The stock market's doing well, their houses
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Speaker 4: are worth more than they were a year ago. They
3:00
Speaker 4: feel pretty good in our shopping. And then at the
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Speaker 4: lower end we see shoppers pulling back, not shopping as much,
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Speaker 4: not splurging. We had a great story last week the
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Speaker 4: CEO of Newell Brands, which is the maker of Sharpie
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Speaker 4: and rubber Maid and Mister Coffee, saying that they're having
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Speaker 4: a much easier time selling three hundred dollars coffee makers
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Speaker 4: than they are selling thirty dollars coffee makers, which tells
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Speaker 4: you everything that you need to know about the economy
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Speaker 4: right now. The upper income households are spending, the lower
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Speaker 4: ones are pulling back.
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Speaker 3: How about tariff's I mean, what is the expected impact
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Speaker 3: on the consumer here? I wonder if the folks have
3:37
Speaker 3: voted for Donald Trump, are they aware that in some
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Speaker 3: scenarios tariffs can result in higher prices that we pay
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Speaker 3: for stuff and maybe is that a concern for the.
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Speaker 1: Consumer out there.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really good question. I think it's somewhat
3:50
Speaker 4: ironic that we saw a lot of voters who I
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Speaker 4: think were really frustrated with the cost of their groceries
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Speaker 4: and how much they were spending on things, come out
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Speaker 4: and vote for because they thought he would lower prices. Meanwhile,
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Speaker 4: like Trump's platform is very open and honest about his
4:05
Speaker 4: protectionist policies, the core of that being increasing tariffs. And
4:10
Speaker 4: if you know how tariffs work, like they most of
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Speaker 4: the time get passed down to the consumer and raise prices.
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Speaker 4: So that is going to be a big theme of
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Speaker 4: our coverage and what we're looking for next year. Obviously,
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Speaker 4: tariffs are really complicated. We don't know what industries are
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Speaker 4: they're going to hit first, what types of products are
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Speaker 4: going to hit, how big they will be, what countries
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Speaker 4: they will affect. These are all still unknown, but generally speaking,
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Speaker 4: what economists think will happen is that tariffs will raise
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Speaker 4: prices for consumers and will slow economic growth, which ultimately
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Speaker 4: is not great for the consumer, not great for the
4:47
Speaker 4: companies that we cover on the consumer beat. And you know,
4:50
Speaker 4: we got a little bit of a preview of this
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Speaker 4: in the consumer confidence ratings that were just out a
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Speaker 4: couple weeks ago. They tanked for the first time in
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Speaker 4: a while because of this concern and uncertainty over tariffs.
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Speaker 5: Very quickly here about thirty seconds. We know consumers are
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Speaker 5: talking about this. How about companies themselves? As you listen
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Speaker 5: to earnings calls and CEO speaking, are they engaging with
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Speaker 5: the notion of what tariffs might mean for their bottom line?
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Speaker 4: Some are, Some are saying, we just don't know. I
5:16
Speaker 4: think a lot of companies that were maybe already planning
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Speaker 4: on moving their production outside of China or closer to
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Speaker 4: the US are speaking out about it. A lot of
5:26
Speaker 4: companies are just saying they don't know. Walmart obviously said yes,
5:31
Speaker 4: like tariffs will ultimately raise prices for US, So it's
5:36
Speaker 4: different answers across the board. It'll be really interesting to
5:40
Speaker 4: watch I think there's a lot we don't know that
5:43
Speaker 4: we will learn soon once the new administration enters the
5:48
Speaker 4: White House.
5:48
Speaker 6: We know you'd be watching it closely.
5:49
Speaker 5: Emily con joining us here in the studio in New
5:51
Speaker 5: York getting that gold star from one Paul Sweeney, which
5:54
Speaker 5: is not worth nothing, I promise you, consumer editor here
5:57
Speaker 5: at Bloomberg News, talking about what twenty twenty five is like.
6:00
Speaker 6: They look like across a variety of sectors.
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6:22
Speaker 5: Something might not be feeling that's good about is the
6:24
Speaker 5: federal deficit. The incoming Trump administration facing the worst trajectory
6:27
Speaker 5: for federal borrowing in modern day history, with the deficit
6:30
Speaker 5: projected to exceed six percent of GDP next year. At
6:33
Speaker 5: something I spoke about with current Treasury Sectory Jennet Yellen,
6:36
Speaker 5: I asked her about her concerns.
6:39
Speaker 7: Well, I am concerned about the fiscal out loo can
6:42
Speaker 7: I believe the deficit reduction is necessary to keep us
6:48
Speaker 7: on a sustainable fiscal course.
6:51
Speaker 8: Now.
6:51
Speaker 7: President Biden signed into law a trillion dollars of deficit
6:57
Speaker 7: reduction over the next years. He did that in the
7:02
Speaker 7: agreement to raise the debt ceiling. And our budget proposes
7:07
Speaker 7: an additional three trillion dollars of deficit reduction over ten years,
7:13
Speaker 7: and I think that's necessary to make sure that our
7:17
Speaker 7: fiscal path is sustainable. Now, Congress hasn't really done anything to,
7:27
Speaker 7: you know, beyond what I've mentioned, to improve the fiscal outlook,
7:31
Speaker 7: and I think that's a shame. I'm disappointed in that,
7:34
Speaker 7: and I think Congress needs to work hard on that.
7:39
Speaker 7: There is a threat going forward that many of the
7:44
Speaker 7: provisions on the individual tax side of the jobs, job
7:49
Speaker 7: cuts and tax JCTA enacted by the Trump administration in
7:55
Speaker 7: Congress in twenty seventeen, they will sunset at the end
8:00
Speaker 7: of next year, and many Republicans have expressed a desire
8:08
Speaker 7: to keep all those provisions in place. CBO said that
8:12
Speaker 7: will cost five trillion dollars over ten years. So that
8:17
Speaker 7: really is and so that would be a blow in
8:22
Speaker 7: a situation where I believe an additional three trillion. You
8:27
Speaker 7: know that not doing the five trillion and three trillion
8:31
Speaker 7: more is necessary, and if the provisions are just extended,
8:40
Speaker 7: this will be a serious blow without finding ways to
8:43
Speaker 7: pay for them. We proposed a lot of pay fors
8:46
Speaker 7: that we think would fairly ask corporations, wealthy individuals to
8:53
Speaker 7: pay their fair share. We've negotiated an international tax agreement
8:59
Speaker 7: that would create a level playing field worldwide from multinationals.
9:05
Speaker 7: The United States has not yet joined, although many other
9:09
Speaker 7: countries have, and that would be a revenue raising measure
9:16
Speaker 7: that I think would be very valuable, and there is
9:20
Speaker 7: certainly more so. I do hope that the new administration
9:24
Speaker 7: in Congress will, if they extend features of JCTA, find
9:31
Speaker 7: ways to pay for what they do and also make
9:34
Speaker 7: sure that the benefits go not to the wealthiest individuals
9:39
Speaker 7: but to middle class families.
9:41
Speaker 5: As Treasury Secretary Jenna Yellen, of course, and joining us
9:44
Speaker 5: now is Lauren sidel Baker. She's an economist at ITR Economics,
9:47
Speaker 5: and Lauren, let me pick up from what the Treasury
9:49
Speaker 5: Secretary was saying. They're talking about what might happen when
9:52
Speaker 5: it comes to taxes as you look ahead to twenty
9:55
Speaker 5: twenty five, let's zoom in on that variable in particular,
9:59
Speaker 5: how much does that that kind of define or could
10:01
Speaker 5: it define sort of the economic trajectory of the country
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Speaker 5: going forward, whether or not those so called Trump era
10:06
Speaker 5: tax cuts are are extended here in twenty twenty five.
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Speaker 9: Well, clearly there will be some knock on effects, but
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Speaker 9: generally we're seeing the consumer be in a very stable position.
10:15
Speaker 9: So if we're talking about individual tax rates, yes, that's
10:18
Speaker 9: something we consider in our spending, but our dollars do
10:21
Speaker 9: tend to walk based on many other fundamental factors. The
10:24
Speaker 9: big one that I'm looking at right now is the
10:26
Speaker 9: strength of the labor market. We've been talking a lot
10:28
Speaker 9: about that recently, but very low new unemployment claims, we
10:33
Speaker 9: have very low layoffs and other discharge discharges excuse me.
10:37
Speaker 9: And generally, if you want a job today with this
10:39
Speaker 9: low unemployment rate, you can typically find one. There are
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Speaker 9: more job openings out there than there are unemployed job seekers.
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Speaker 10: So at the end of the day, yes, the.
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Speaker 9: Tax rate matters, but just having that strong consumer position
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Speaker 9: from an employment perspective is what matters more.
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Speaker 3: And Lauren, we're seeing, we're starting to hear from some
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Speaker 3: of the retailers about some of the retail spending this season,
10:58
Speaker 3: you know, up low single it seems like the consumer
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Speaker 3: is in decent shape.
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Speaker 1: Is that kind of what your data shows?
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Speaker 9: That is absolutely what our data show the consumer. We
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Speaker 9: like to complain about a number of factors.
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Speaker 10: Right we see prices going up.
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Speaker 9: We've clearly been hit by inflation, but overall, our wages
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Speaker 9: have still been rising, so our purchasing power is actually
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Speaker 9: better off today than it has been at any point
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Speaker 9: in history. So I think that low single digit growth
11:23
Speaker 9: that we're seeing from retailers, in some ways, we were
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Speaker 9: spoiled in the post pandemic kind of stimulus era where
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Speaker 9: consumers just had so much essentially windfall to go out
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Speaker 9: and spend a lot of those very high growth rates
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Speaker 9: in retail spending, those were never going to be sustainable.
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Speaker 10: So what we're seeing today.
11:39
Speaker 9: Is these growth rates come back down to something more sustainable,
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Speaker 9: a little bit more healthy for our kind of retail sector.
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Speaker 9: But this is overall growth. It's slowing growth, yes, but
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Speaker 9: it is still positive movement. And many of the fundamental
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Speaker 9: leading indicators that we see today are putting in place
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Speaker 9: an even better growth picture.
11:57
Speaker 10: In twenty twenty five.
11:58
Speaker 5: Lauren, I wondered what stood at to you from the
12:00
Speaker 5: most recent comments from the FED chair from Jerome Powell.
12:03
Speaker 5: Of course, he is adamant as he always has been,
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Speaker 5: that the FED is data driven. There's this kind of
12:08
Speaker 5: complementary argument about the FED being data point driven. What
12:12
Speaker 5: if you've taken away just about their approach to the numbers,
12:16
Speaker 5: to the economic data that we've been getting, and what
12:18
Speaker 5: they're going to sort of treat as paramount most important here.
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Speaker 6: In twenty twenty five.
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Speaker 5: Yes, there's the FED favorite, the PCE flavor, all of that,
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Speaker 5: But when the FED looks at that kind of panoply
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Speaker 5: of data at the dashboard down in Washington, d C.
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Speaker 5: What's most important to them and indeed what's most important
12:34
Speaker 5: to you here as we turn the corner into twenty
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Speaker 5: twenty five.
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Speaker 9: So the FED, with their duel mandate, we always have
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Speaker 9: this kind of seesaw effect. Where are they putting more
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Speaker 9: attention more focus. For a while, it was inflation, because
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Speaker 9: that was the side of their dual mandate that really
12:48
Speaker 9: got away from us with very very high inflation numbers.
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Speaker 9: Once we saw inflation start to come down, and I
12:54
Speaker 9: will be absolutely clear, even those core PC numbers were
12:56
Speaker 9: not yet at the fed's target two percent rate, but
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Speaker 9: we're moving enough in that direction that they shifted their
13:02
Speaker 9: focus away from the inflation side and toward that labor
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Speaker 9: market side. Now the labor market, well, some directional deterioration
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Speaker 9: is happening. This is coming from such a tight starting point.
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Speaker 9: This is still a tight labor market. So I think
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Speaker 9: if we do see as we at ITR have been saying,
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Speaker 9: we expect to see inflation start to build in the
13:20
Speaker 9: back half of twenty twenty five, I think it will
13:22
Speaker 9: be very easy for that focus to shift back to
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Speaker 9: inflation very quickly. That's something we saw in especially the
13:29
Speaker 9: dot plot that came out in the most recent meeting.
13:32
Speaker 9: BED officials are starting to scale down their expectations for
13:36
Speaker 9: the number of cuts we'll get in twenty twenty five. Again,
13:38
Speaker 9: this is something we've had on our horizon for a while. Now,
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Speaker 9: we do see those mounting inflation pressures coming back.
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Speaker 10: Not to the recent highs. I don't want to.
13:46
Speaker 9: Scare anyone, but starting to see some of those fundamental
13:49
Speaker 9: pressures build. I don't think we're going to be comfortably
13:51
Speaker 9: at that two percent rate, and with the labor markets
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Speaker 9: still relatively healthy again. It's going to be very easy
13:56
Speaker 9: to shift away from that side of the dual mandate.
13:59
Speaker 9: And I don't expect that we'll get rate hikes anytime soon,
14:03
Speaker 9: but by the end of twenty twenty five, it's not
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Speaker 9: unimaginable that we could even see rates not just level off,
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Speaker 9: but start to climb again.
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Speaker 1: Lauren, new administration coming in.
14:14
Speaker 3: We don't know a lot about their economic policies, but
14:16
Speaker 3: what we do know is tariffs are on the table.
14:19
Speaker 3: Potential changes to immigration and migrant policy are on the table.
14:23
Speaker 3: Some have suggested that those two in and of themselves
14:26
Speaker 3: could be inflationary.
14:28
Speaker 1: Is that a material risk for you?
14:31
Speaker 10: Absolutely.
14:31
Speaker 9: We don't know a lot about those programs, but we
14:33
Speaker 9: do know that they tend historically to be inflationary. Tariffs,
14:37
Speaker 9: I mean, the inflation is almost built into the goal
14:40
Speaker 9: right to increase the cost of foreign imports. Back in
14:43
Speaker 9: the twenty eighteen Trump taraff round, we did see even
14:46
Speaker 9: domestic producers they felt like they had a little more
14:49
Speaker 9: wiggle room right with the cost of their competition products
14:52
Speaker 9: going up, So we saw domestic producers increase their prices
14:56
Speaker 9: back in twenty eighteen.
14:57
Speaker 10: Immigration, if we see mass deportations.
14:59
Speaker 9: Again, I mentioned there are more jobs available than there
15:02
Speaker 9: are job seekers, So taking, however, many million people kind
15:06
Speaker 9: of out of our labor force, even if they are
15:08
Speaker 9: not documented legal workers today, that will cause a little
15:12
Speaker 9: bit more upside pressure on wages. So we don't have
15:14
Speaker 9: full details. It remains to be seen what is actually
15:17
Speaker 9: policy proposal versus campaign rhetoric.
15:20
Speaker 10: But if we do tend in that direction, which.
15:22
Speaker 9: Seems a pretty good bet at this point, those would
15:26
Speaker 9: tend to put more upside pressure on prices.
15:28
Speaker 5: And we know that the FED is now wrestling with
15:30
Speaker 5: all of these various permutations of what could happen and
15:33
Speaker 5: what effect that could have on the economy. Lauren, let
15:36
Speaker 5: me ask you about the so called neutral rate and
15:39
Speaker 5: the Fed's necessary obsession with kind of figuring that out.
15:42
Speaker 5: Of course it can't pinpoint it in real time, but
15:44
Speaker 5: what's your sense of where it is? How much of
15:46
Speaker 5: a struggle this has been, indeed it's going to be
15:48
Speaker 5: for the FED here going forward? You mentioned the fact
15:50
Speaker 5: that they haven't reached that inflation target of two percent?
15:53
Speaker 5: Is it coming into any better focus here as we
15:56
Speaker 5: get into twenty twenty five?
15:58
Speaker 9: So we have to keep in mind that is made
16:00
Speaker 9: up of academics, So something like where is the neutral rate?
16:03
Speaker 9: That's a very academic argument. We will never know in
16:06
Speaker 9: real time. We'll only look back and say what did
16:08
Speaker 9: we get right and what did we get wrong? So
16:10
Speaker 9: at this point, I'm not sure it matters where the
16:12
Speaker 9: neutral rate is. What does matter is how many of
16:16
Speaker 9: these fundamental factors will be increasing inflation and then those
16:20
Speaker 9: add on risks right from the policy side that you
16:22
Speaker 9: just mentioned. What will that do to the inflation rate?
16:25
Speaker 9: How much does the FED need to move to keep
16:27
Speaker 9: inflation and check versus our labor market issues? Those are
16:31
Speaker 9: really long term demographic problems. So that's not something that's
16:34
Speaker 9: quite so easy to just for the FED to kind
16:36
Speaker 9: of put their hand on the scale to tilt that
16:39
Speaker 9: down to show balance in the labor market.
16:42
Speaker 10: It's demographics.
16:43
Speaker 9: That's not something they can fight with birth rates, right,
16:45
Speaker 9: That just isn't what the FED is here to do.
16:48
Speaker 3: So, Lauren, what is your GDP call for twenty twenty
16:52
Speaker 3: five and what are the real variables there that could
16:54
Speaker 3: kind of move that one way or the other.
16:57
Speaker 9: I do expect solid steady GDP growth. We're looking for
17:01
Speaker 9: about two and a half percent growth, in twenty twenty five. Again,
17:04
Speaker 9: a lot of those fundamental leading indicators that we tend
17:08
Speaker 9: to follow, they're showing upturn. We've had much more subdued
17:11
Speaker 9: growth lately, especially in things like our manufacturing economy, our
17:14
Speaker 9: industrial sector, but we see green shoots going forward. We
17:18
Speaker 9: see with this lower interest rate environment, now having had
17:21
Speaker 9: some room to run, businesses are looking to invest next year.
17:24
Speaker 10: There will be.
17:25
Speaker 9: Of course added policy implications, but the general underlying fundamental
17:30
Speaker 9: factors those are the ones that we find much more
17:33
Speaker 9: consistently important to business investment and to the long term
17:37
Speaker 9: growth of the economy. So I'm looking for steady consumer
17:40
Speaker 9: spending to really be the engine fueling that growth, but.
17:42
Speaker 10: A resurgence in business investment.
17:44
Speaker 9: The government side of GDP, they keep on spending, as
17:48
Speaker 9: we just heard from Yellen. So I do fully expect
17:51
Speaker 9: steady but rather broad based growth in twenty twenty five.
17:55
Speaker 5: I'll ask you lastly just to place this the US
17:57
Speaker 5: economy in a wider context, to global context. It does
18:01
Speaker 5: seem that things here are much better, certainly than they
18:04
Speaker 5: are in many parts many parts of Europe. Do you
18:06
Speaker 5: expect for that to persist?
18:09
Speaker 10: I think the.
18:10
Speaker 9: Reasons that our economy is doing better than Europe. Those
18:13
Speaker 9: are very foundational and it's a strong foundation. So we
18:16
Speaker 9: see a lot of foreign direct investments still coming into
18:18
Speaker 9: the United States. I don't think the re onshoring story
18:21
Speaker 9: has completely played out. There is more movement in that
18:24
Speaker 9: direction globally. We're just in a point of nationalism as
18:28
Speaker 9: opposed to globalism.
18:29
Speaker 10: The pendulum is shifting that direction.
18:31
Speaker 9: So with our strong consumer base that did get a
18:34
Speaker 9: little bit more boost than their European counterparts from that
18:37
Speaker 9: pandemic era stimulus spending. Yes, I think we are in
18:41
Speaker 9: a broad kind of strong position that's going to encourage
18:44
Speaker 9: the foreign direct investment to keep flowing this way. So
18:47
Speaker 9: for the foreseeable future, I think the US is a
18:49
Speaker 9: very good place to do business.
18:51
Speaker 1: All right, Lauren, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
18:53
Speaker 3: As always, Lauren sidel A Baker its economics, getting your
18:57
Speaker 3: thoughts on economic conditions out there are Federal Reserve and
19:01
Speaker 3: maybe a little bit of a peak ahead to twenty
19:03
Speaker 3: twenty five.
19:05
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Speaker 2: broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app listen on demand
19:15
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
19:20
Speaker 8: What do you go for?
19:21
Speaker 6: Let's talk about real estate now.
19:22
Speaker 5: New home sales in the US rebounded last month as
19:24
Speaker 5: builders and consumers sealed deals that have been delayed by
19:27
Speaker 5: storms in the South, and buyers took advantage of heavy
19:30
Speaker 5: sales incentives. He's the Best Freeman set of Luxury real
19:33
Speaker 5: Estate broke which Brown Harris Stevens had to say about
19:36
Speaker 5: the market.
19:37
Speaker 11: All real estate is local, so it depends on where
19:40
Speaker 11: you are and what the demand is. I'll give you
19:42
Speaker 11: an example, a place like Palm Beach. You put something
19:45
Speaker 11: on the market, there is a swarm of people who
19:47
Speaker 11: want to buy. But that's obviously more typically more high end,
19:50
Speaker 11: more expensive Connecticut. There's no supply, so when people put
19:54
Speaker 11: their homes on the market, there's a rush of people
19:56
Speaker 11: to line up to bid on the homes. I think
20:00
Speaker 11: once we have more supply than we're going to get
20:02
Speaker 11: prices to come down. And if sellers start to put
20:05
Speaker 11: their homes on the market and buyers get into the market,
20:07
Speaker 11: we start to see fluidness and supply and demand intersect,
20:11
Speaker 11: which is a healthy housing market, which we didn't have
20:13
Speaker 11: in twenty twenty four.
20:15
Speaker 10: Well, you talk about Palm Beach, you talk about Connecticut.
20:17
Speaker 10: I'm going to be selfish and ask about Manhattan.
20:19
Speaker 9: What does the supply picture look like there and how
20:21
Speaker 9: does that feed into the pricing dynamic.
20:23
Speaker 11: We have a decent supply, you know, the market in
20:25
Speaker 11: the city has been pretty flat. High end has done well,
20:29
Speaker 11: which it usually does because it's discretionary. I mean, look
20:31
Speaker 11: at Wall Street. The bonuses are going to be incredible.
20:34
Speaker 11: You know, a lot of people are saying the stock
20:35
Speaker 11: market is obviously pushes or drives a real estate market here,
20:39
Speaker 11: and it's been very frothy, and people are saying, is
20:41
Speaker 11: there a bubble coming? Do we know?
20:43
Speaker 6: I don't.
20:44
Speaker 11: It's unclear to us, but I do think that, you know,
20:47
Speaker 11: people are it's been moderate, it's been decent. I would
20:50
Speaker 11: like to see a pickup in that market. There's been
20:52
Speaker 11: a big portion of this market that's been cash. So
20:55
Speaker 11: remember the mortgage rates don't necessarily impact our byers and
21:00
Speaker 11: sellers as much, although it does play into it.
21:03
Speaker 12: When you think about that tension, that push pull between
21:06
Speaker 12: renting and buying, I feel like you're so close to
21:07
Speaker 12: the ground where you see people making that decision in
21:10
Speaker 12: real time. What are they choosing at this point in time?
21:13
Speaker 12: Is there a reason to wait to buy and rent
21:15
Speaker 12: for now instead?
21:16
Speaker 11: I think, you know, it's like they say, renting is
21:18
Speaker 11: more like dating. It's temporary, and so if you don't
21:21
Speaker 11: like it. I have a friend who's renting right now
21:22
Speaker 11: in the Upper east Side in one bedroom. She doesn't
21:24
Speaker 11: like the neighborhood. She's like, I'm definitely moving out. It's
21:26
Speaker 11: sort of like you're dating before you get married, right,
21:29
Speaker 11: And so I think if you want to commit to
21:31
Speaker 11: economic security in building intergenerational wealth, you buy a home.
21:36
Speaker 11: Because if the stock market plummets and your coinage goes
21:39
Speaker 11: way down, you know that you just look at your
21:42
Speaker 11: You're looking at your portfolio, go damn, I have less money.
21:45
Speaker 11: The stinks. Versus, if you bought a home and that
21:48
Speaker 11: value goes down, you have a roof over your head,
21:50
Speaker 11: do you have a place where you can eat, sleep,
21:52
Speaker 11: have dinner, have fun, and it's sort of it goes
21:55
Speaker 11: up in value. So I think that we have to
21:58
Speaker 11: think about the housing market as a law term investment,
22:01
Speaker 11: and it is still the American dream. It's a commitment
22:03
Speaker 11: to your future.
22:05
Speaker 2: All right.
22:05
Speaker 1: That was best Friedman.
22:06
Speaker 3: She is the CEO of luxury real estate brokerage of
22:09
Speaker 3: Brown Harris Stevens. Let's keep on this real estate story here,
22:14
Speaker 3: residential real estate. We do that with Russell Galbot. He
22:17
Speaker 3: is managing Principal Crest Heights. Russell, thanks so much for
22:21
Speaker 3: joining us here Residential real Estate, South Florida. Is there
22:26
Speaker 3: any reason for this market not to continue to be
22:29
Speaker 3: strong going forward? It just seems like everybody up here
22:33
Speaker 3: on this island of Manhattan has moved down to Florida.
22:34
Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on.
22:36
Speaker 8: I think you're right on that, Paul. In fact, we're
22:39
Speaker 8: very fortunate in South Florida. Somebody says that it's always location,
22:43
Speaker 8: and they're quite correct. Not every city is born equally,
22:46
Speaker 8: and not every state is equal. So we're very excited
22:49
Speaker 8: about what's happening South Florida. We're cautiously optimistic for the future,
22:54
Speaker 8: and things seem to be really going in our way.
22:56
Speaker 5: Talk a bit about what it has going for it.
22:59
Speaker 5: I know again there's enthusiasm among many companies to move
23:02
Speaker 5: large offices down there, save for the weather, which of
23:06
Speaker 5: course we're all in VSF here in Manhattan. What are
23:08
Speaker 5: the draws and what has South Florida done to incentivize
23:11
Speaker 5: companies to move down there.
23:14
Speaker 8: So look, capitalism and business follows the path of least resistance,
23:19
Speaker 8: and Florida has created that path because we have spent
23:22
Speaker 8: so much money on infrastructure and created the schools and
23:27
Speaker 8: the housing and all of the other things that are necessary,
23:31
Speaker 8: such as are cultural centers of excellence and support and
23:36
Speaker 8: more housing. So we're very, very pleased to be in
23:39
Speaker 8: South Florida. As I said to you earlier, we have
23:42
Speaker 8: a thousand people coming to our state every day and
23:45
Speaker 8: it is doing incredibly well.
23:47
Speaker 1: I don't know where you're putting them down there? Are
23:50
Speaker 1: you building new communities? Where do you build new communities?
23:54
Speaker 3: You can't build any more on the coast because since
23:56
Speaker 3: the fifties the coast has been pretty full up.
23:58
Speaker 1: Where are you putting people?
24:00
Speaker 8: Well, we're putting people inland as well, So we're building
24:03
Speaker 8: all over and South Florida. You know, we still have
24:07
Speaker 8: a great amount of land to build, and we're really
24:09
Speaker 8: creating urbanism. In the last ten years in Miami, we
24:12
Speaker 8: have for the first time a true urban urbanism. And
24:17
Speaker 8: the way we started that was our cultural centers of
24:19
Speaker 8: excellence in the downtown area and the Edgewater area. So
24:24
Speaker 8: and we have a new train now that goes directly
24:26
Speaker 8: to Orlando with numerous stocks in between, as well as
24:30
Speaker 8: public transportation at second to none. We've also put a
24:33
Speaker 8: lot of energy into our school systems, including private schools,
24:36
Speaker 8: charter schools, and we've embraced the concept of excellence, something
24:41
Speaker 8: that other states had forgotten. And we're very proud of
24:44
Speaker 8: what's happening in the state of Florida, for sure.
24:46
Speaker 6: Well let's talk about some of those other states.
24:48
Speaker 5: And I'm curious as you kind of pull back and
24:49
Speaker 5: look at the health of the residential real estate sector
24:53
Speaker 5: more broadly, where you see bright spots, where you see growth,
24:57
Speaker 5: maybe not as strong as in your beloved South Florida,
24:59
Speaker 5: but you're seeing positive and promising signs.
25:04
Speaker 8: So you know, I often joke that the greatest real
25:06
Speaker 8: estate salesman we had in South Florida was Deblasio, and
25:10
Speaker 8: to some extent it's true because he sent it off
25:13
Speaker 8: a lot of people to South Florida. So I think
25:16
Speaker 8: that between Florida and Texas, I mean, we're truly growing states.
25:21
Speaker 8: And the reason is that we welcome entrepreneurship. We make
25:25
Speaker 8: it easy to form your companies. And I think what
25:29
Speaker 8: happened here is with COVID, so many people work from
25:31
Speaker 8: home and create businesses from home. It used to be
25:35
Speaker 8: that you weren't proud to say you're a capitalist, but
25:39
Speaker 8: things have changed. Elections change things, and today I think
25:42
Speaker 8: people would be proud to say that they're a capitalists,
25:45
Speaker 8: proud to say that they're working at home. And when
25:48
Speaker 8: you can work at home, why would you want to
25:50
Speaker 8: not be in an area where we have beautiful beaches,
25:53
Speaker 8: sunshine and incredible weather, and that is places like South Florida.
25:59
Speaker 3: Interest rates, presumably the Federal Reserve, they're cutting rates, they're
26:03
Speaker 3: how do you think that's going to impact your business,
26:06
Speaker 3: your market over the next year, twelve to twenty four months.
26:10
Speaker 8: Well, first of all, I think the fact that interest
26:12
Speaker 8: rates are stable is very important, and I think the
26:15
Speaker 8: public is starting to feel that we know where interest
26:18
Speaker 8: rates are in the near future, and maybe they'll come
26:20
Speaker 8: down a few more quarter points, But I think that
26:23
Speaker 8: that's the most important thing. And I'll tell you next
26:26
Speaker 8: next year will be fifty years that I'm building condominians.
26:30
Speaker 8: My first condominium was in nineteen seventy five. In nineteen
26:34
Speaker 8: eighty one, interest rates were sixteen point one percent for
26:39
Speaker 8: condos and you know what we still sold. Then The
26:42
Speaker 8: average over the last one hundred years has been six
26:45
Speaker 8: point five. The median is five point six. So we're
26:49
Speaker 8: right in the range. Yes, we have to come down
26:51
Speaker 8: another point or two, maybe half a point next year,
26:55
Speaker 8: but I think we're okay when it comes to interest rates. Today.
26:58
Speaker 5: You're in the building business and there is so much speculation,
27:02
Speaker 5: some concern about what terift policies might mean for any
27:06
Speaker 5: number of goods. But I imagine timber, other construction supplies
27:09
Speaker 5: high on the list. There is it something that you
27:12
Speaker 5: are thinking about with any real seriousness? Is it something
27:15
Speaker 5: you're just monitoring? So how are you looking at some
27:18
Speaker 5: of the policy proposals pronouncements that we've heard from the president?
27:20
Speaker 8: Elivet Look, governance is extremely important. When you see how
27:26
Speaker 8: our particular governor in the state of Florida has run
27:29
Speaker 8: streamlining processes, creating local a great, great law that will
27:36
Speaker 8: allow for workforce housing, and you see the level of
27:42
Speaker 8: competency exercised by our legislation. Our bodies are sentate in
27:46
Speaker 8: our house.
27:47
Speaker 6: It is really terrific.
27:48
Speaker 8: And then you compare us to cities or states like
27:51
Speaker 8: California where they have builders remedy. It's a difference between
27:55
Speaker 8: day and night. So government does count. I'll tell you
27:58
Speaker 8: another benefit that South Florida has with the recent elections
28:02
Speaker 8: in Mexico, in South America and Columbia and so on
28:05
Speaker 8: and so forth, we're going to get a huge influx
28:08
Speaker 8: because South Florida, Miami especially is such a cultural diverse community.
28:14
Speaker 8: It is the most cultural diverse community I think in
28:17
Speaker 8: the state in the United States.
28:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, it is an extraordinary story there, Russell.
28:23
Speaker 3: Part and partial to that is I think in the
28:26
Speaker 3: construction business, you go to any construction site around the country,
28:30
Speaker 3: it feels like there's a lot of migrant and labor there,
28:34
Speaker 3: legal and illegal. How concerned is your industry about what
28:38
Speaker 3: might be stricter immigration, maybe even forced repatriation of certain
28:44
Speaker 3: people out there that may be critical to the workforce.
28:48
Speaker 8: You know, the workforce is extremely important in South Florida,
28:51
Speaker 8: and we do have a culturally diverse workforce as well,
28:55
Speaker 8: but we believe that most of them are are fully
28:59
Speaker 8: legitimate and and are welcomed into our country. And the
29:03
Speaker 8: great thing about South Florida is that it's been building
29:07
Speaker 8: now through the last four years when other parts of
29:10
Speaker 8: the country have been stagnant, and therefore we've had a
29:13
Speaker 8: lot of immigration into Florida of actually great construction workers.
29:18
Speaker 8: So the quality of our product has been maintained and
29:22
Speaker 8: we're the recipient of that. Now. It may cause problems
29:25
Speaker 8: in such states as New York and other states that
29:29
Speaker 8: receive so many of this illegal immigration. Thank god, in
29:32
Speaker 8: South Florida, we were not recipients of that. In fact,
29:36
Speaker 8: our recipients are a thousand people are the people of
29:39
Speaker 8: economic substance, the people who want to search for excellence
29:43
Speaker 8: and want to have the right schools and infrastructure. So
29:46
Speaker 8: while places like New York may have gained those illegal immigrants,
29:51
Speaker 8: Florida gained the wealthy and medium wealthy who wanted a change.
29:58
Speaker 5: Rus So let's talk about climate Imagine. It's something you
30:00
Speaker 5: have to keep in front of mind as you undergo
30:02
Speaker 5: the developments that you're undergoing. And there in South Florida
30:05
Speaker 5: we make a little light here of how much better
30:07
Speaker 5: the weather is than it is here in New York.
30:09
Speaker 5: But you have to be thinking about climate change and
30:12
Speaker 5: rise of sea levels and the like. How is it
30:14
Speaker 5: shaping the kind of development projects that you have been
30:16
Speaker 5: undertaking the way that you think about what residentss look
30:20
Speaker 5: like long term there in South Florida.
30:23
Speaker 8: I think that's a great question, by the way, and
30:25
Speaker 8: we do follow ULI and all.
30:29
Speaker 6: Of the issues of racing sea levels.
30:31
Speaker 8: Buildings are going to have to come out of the
30:33
Speaker 8: ground higher out of the ground, and build taller and
30:36
Speaker 8: leave more open space. And I think that's what you're
30:38
Speaker 8: seeing in South Florida. People are beginning to recognize that
30:42
Speaker 8: climate change is real and that there's ways to deal
30:45
Speaker 8: with it and ways to handle it. And we certainly
30:48
Speaker 8: have a legislature and a governor that's relentlessly focused on
30:52
Speaker 8: new legislation to ensure the safety and welfare of our residents.
30:58
Speaker 8: Some of those laws again like live Local we're in
31:02
Speaker 8: and inspections where we have a forty year certification, forty
31:05
Speaker 8: five year certification, those types of laws, that type of
31:08
Speaker 8: leadership is what makes South Florida different.
31:11
Speaker 3: Russell, one of the challenges I do hear about Florida,
31:14
Speaker 3: particularly real estate ownership in Florida is insurance. Getting some
31:17
Speaker 3: of that insurance against whether you know, the floods, the hurricanes,
31:21
Speaker 3: and that is a challenge for the state.
31:23
Speaker 1: How would you like to see that play out.
31:26
Speaker 8: That is probably one of our biggest challenges in the
31:29
Speaker 8: state of Florida, and we deal with it every day.
31:32
Speaker 8: I believe that that the state itself is going to
31:36
Speaker 8: have to get more involved, and they are getting more involved.
31:39
Speaker 8: And by the way, the increases in insurance has been
31:43
Speaker 8: becoming less and less each year.
31:47
Speaker 3: Interesting because we've heard from a lot of insurance companies
31:50
Speaker 3: that continues to be a challenge there. But again, you're right,
31:55
Speaker 3: folks are coming down. They're to figure that out. Russell,
31:57
Speaker 3: thank you so much for joining us, Russell Gal. But
31:59
Speaker 3: Cresent Heights principle certainly chemical.
32:03
Speaker 6: I mean, it's just thriving.
32:04
Speaker 5: But point about insurance, I know this was something that
32:06
Speaker 5: came up with the context of those hurricanes earlier this year.
32:09
Speaker 5: Just the number of individuals quoted in the news who
32:12
Speaker 5: said that, you know, they've seen their premiums go up
32:14
Speaker 5: by a ton and have to worry about it. So
32:17
Speaker 5: if it's not an issue for everybody, I think it's
32:19
Speaker 5: likely to be a bigger deal.
32:20
Speaker 3: And you've seen a lot of the private insurans you know,
32:22
Speaker 3: have pulled out over out of the state over the years.
32:24
Speaker 3: Warren Buffett made his insurance business made a I think
32:28
Speaker 3: a pretty high profile re engagement with Florida a couple
32:31
Speaker 3: of years ago.
32:32
Speaker 6: Thought that that.
32:33
Speaker 3: Again there was an opportunity there, given the risk, to
32:36
Speaker 3: maybe make some good return there.
32:37
Speaker 1: But I know that has been a challenge.
32:39
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32:46
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32:54
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33:00
Speaker 6: Un contain Cott