Latest / 360 with Katie Woolf / Katie Woolf spoke with Head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre Dr John Coyne on the US Military wanting to keep weapons in the NT

Transcript

Katie Woolf spoke with Head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre Dr John Coyne on the US Military wanting to keep weapons in the NT · 360 with Katie Woolf

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: If you want to know what's happening on the local
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: political landscape, Katie Wolf has it covered on three sixty.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: Every one is listening Mix one oh four point nine.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: We know that the US wants to store defense equipment
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: in Australia's top end. It is all of course under
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: a bilateral Force posture review to better it prepare US
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: and our allies, I guess for growing strategic threats from China.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: That is according to a report in The Australian earlier
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: this week. Now, in an interview, acting US Ambassador Mike
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Goldburn said it just makes sense to ford deploy US
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: war stocks in Australia given US bases in Guam and
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: elsewhere in the region were within reach of Chinese missiles.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Now joining me on the line.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: To talk more about this is the head of the
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Northern Australia Strategic Policy Center and the head of Strategic
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Policing and Law Enforcement, doctor John Coin.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Good morning to you, John.
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: Good morning, Cody.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Great have you on the show again. We really appreciate
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: your time. John, talk us through. We know that there
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: was this report in The Australian earlier in the week
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: and it is really looking more closely about the US
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: sort of forward planning, I guess when it comes to
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: their alliances with the likes of Australia, but certainly in
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the top end of the northern territory.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: Is this a move that needs to happen?
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Look, I think it is number one fact, which is
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: the level of uncertainty in our strategic lends. Actually, for
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: the average punter, what that means is is that five
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: years ago we could sort of reasonably understand what all
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: the major powers and non state actors, even if they
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: were going to do bad things. We have a reasonable
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: understanding of the ween and what now we're seeing a
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: sort of upheaval of all the rules of the game.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: So what we're seeing is and this is pushing aside
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: drama like drums of war, it's just saying, okay, there's
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: unpredictability here and we need to be more prepared for
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: all that. So this announcement is aligned with that.
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: John, What has caused the unpredictability?
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, is it as a result of COVID and
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: you know Australia sort of pushing back saying that they
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: did want that investigation into where COVID began.
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: Is that what really kicked it all? Off, do you reckon?
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: Look not at all? Okay, So that made us all
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: more aware of it. Right, This gradual, gradual, sort of
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: upheaval of the system started well before that. What we've
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: seen is a really active Chinese commerce party. We've seen
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: them doing all manner of things in the South China
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: see building Ireland, putting new military capabilities, rapidly increasing the
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: capability of their defense force or their armed forces. We've
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: seen them engaged all across the region and using a
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: range of soft and hard powers. They're using diplomacy and
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: economics to get their way. When it all started to
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: go really bad for Australia was when Australia started to
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: assert its own right to make the decisions. And I
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: think then what happened is is China sort of views
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: Australia as a contagion. It doesn't want it doesn't want
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: the world to go that way. So you know, when
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: we're sort of looking at things like COVID, when we're
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: pushing back all those punishments, that's why we're getting your
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: lists of fourteen demands cades.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: When realistically, I guess we're just standing up for our rights.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: Look, I think that's the case, and I think this
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: is where you know, the questions the average Australian. So
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of people turning around saying, you know, hey,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: look we should stop pushing up on the on the Chinese.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Let's be quite honest. Last week, in one of the
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: sort of state owned media outlets last five day, we
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: were told with no with certainty that should Australia be
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: involved in defending Taiwan, they would send missiles, strategic missiles
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: to Australia. Wow. So that sort of you know, and
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: let's not forget the same media piece was the ones
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: who put as a member propaganda a mocked up photo
• 3:58
  Speaker 3: of Australia and Australian sold just slitting a child through.
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: So these are the sorts of things that you know,
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: very aggressive behavior.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: So John, where does that leave us here in the
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: top end, because we know that we are very strategically important.
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Look, you know, there's a I guess a silver lining
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: to this. So since Federation people have always said the
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Northern territory is important, they just didn't couldn't for the
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: most part, figure out how and what to do there. So,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: you know, to be quite honest, and most listeners of
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: any age will understand all of the failed policy efforts
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: that have occurred from the Federation, from the Common Government
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: since federation. In the Northern Australia, this is it a
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: much sharper focus. People are asking the questions and certainly
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: the fact that the Americans are looking at putting things
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: like i'm an investment of two hundred million dollars into
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: fuel security. What it means is there's going to be
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: lots of investment in infrastructure in terms of defense capability,
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: and that means jobs in the Northern Australia. So, for instance,
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: if an armored brigade worth the equipment of USRM brigade
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: worth of equipment we're put into the Northern Territory, you're
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: talking about millions, millions of dollars of infrastructure work, lots
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: of immediate jobs and then lots of secondary jobs in
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: maintaining that.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: John doesn't mean though, that it also puts us at
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: greater risk.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: Last Bright agg Akkati a very clear statement which was
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: if Australia was to be involved in the defense of Taiwan,
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: the Chinese government was sent a missile strategic missile strikes
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: our way. So I think we're already at risk if
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: there is a conflict. The main aim of the game
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: here is to be prepared for a conflict and also
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: on the other side of it is to avoid it
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: at all costs without giving up our values and giving
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: up what's right.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: And I mean, I guess that's the end game here,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: isn't it?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Like the Australian government doesn't want to be in a
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: situation where you know, where there are missiles being fired
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: at at Australia. But we do need to make sure
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: that we bolster our forces. We do need to make
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: sure that we are prepared for anything.
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: I guess, But.
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: Looks that's exactly right. It's all about being prepared. You know.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: There was a so the eighties. You know, one of
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: my mentors or one of the people I look up
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: to in terms of strategy, Professor Paul Did wrote the
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: seminal works on how to Defending Australia and at the
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: time one of his assumptions was always had more than
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: ten years notice of a major conflict. Last year with
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: a Defense Strategic Update was the first time since then
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: where we've said we're under ten years to prepare for that,
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: and that's a big thing that we need to realize.
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: So you know that uncertain. It doesn't mean we're going
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: to go to war. It just means we're not going
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: to get this long warning that occurs. Yeah, so you know,
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: things are certainly changed. That we also should remember in
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: terms of this imbalance and the behavior of China. Could
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: you ever imagine an Australian government sending a list of
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: fourteen ultimatums to the Chinese government? Could you ever imagine
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: the Australian federal government going to the local temperature in
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: China and making a signing an MoU agreement with them?
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: You know, and I think we all know the answer
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: to that.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: No, but that's right. But they're certainly throwing their weight
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: around to some degree.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: Aren't they.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So I mean that some of this
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: and you can't blame him in some ways. We've a
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: very successful economical or a lot of ways in Australia.
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: We've had thirty years of economic growth, a lot of
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: that in the last decade or so. We're directly related
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: to the growth of China. And people, of course want
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: to go back to the way things because a lot
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: of people are making a lot of money from that.
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: I'm not so sure that we can go back to that. Well.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I tell you what, every time I catch up with you,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: doctor John Con I always think to myself, I wouldn't mind,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: or I'd.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: Like I feel like I could talk to you for
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: an hour.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: I feel like there's so much more that could be discussed.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate your time and I always appreciate your insights.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: No, thank you very much, Paddy. It's always a pleasure.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: Thanks, thank you, thanks so much for your time.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: And I tell you what, I am always quite fascinated
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: with those discussions with doctor John Coyn. And like I said,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: it does follow on from that report in the Australian
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: earlier in the week, we're in an interview the acting
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: US Ambassador Mike Goldman said it just makes sense to
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Ford deploy US warstocks in Australia given the US bases
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: in Guam and elsewhere in the region were within reach
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: of Chinese missiles.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: And you know, like you've heard there though.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: From doctor Coin, it's not a situation where we're thinking, okay,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: you know, we need to go for it. The Australian
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: government is certainly doing everything they can to try to,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: you know, to manage this relationship in a peaceful way,