“Quick Thoughts on Overhang Arguments” by Aaron_Scher

LessWrong (30+ Karma) · Oct 18, 2026 · 8m

I have two goals for this post:

Pose the question: Have overhang arguments been used successfully in other fields?

Lay out some of the reasons why I am suspicious of overhang arguments.

I've had the second of these on my mind for a few years now and am posting something rough rather than leaving it in drafts.

Intro

Within AI safety, people sometimes use overhang arguments to justify doing things that appear suspicious. The core of an overhang argument, as I see it is:

We are worried about some particular (dangerous) progress happening very quickly in the future.

We can push forward at least…