Latest / The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy
Why the Fed Is Watching the Breakeven Rate Spread Now
Episode 113 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna drill into a specific signal the Fed is watching closely in July 2026: the spread between the 2-year and 10-year breakeven inflation rates. With the 2-year breakeven at 2.26% and the 10-year at 2.26%, the flat term structure of inflation expectations is unusual historically. They explore what this means for Fed credibility, the risk of de-anchoring, and why the flatness matters more than the level alone. Anchored to current data: CPI at 334.0, core CPI at 336.1, and the 10-year breakeven rising to 2.26% from 2.24%. No…
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