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Episode 211 - 2/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 211 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:24
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:26
  I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:34
  Happy Monday, happy February. Hope everyone had a great
• 0:38
  weekend. We are now officially entering
• 0:41
  Super Bowl week. So in honor of the Super Bowl
• 0:44
  week finally being upon us, I'm going to unveil to you my Super
• 0:48
  Bowl best bet. You might have a pretty good
• 0:50
  idea the way I've been talking about this game on the podcast
• 0:53
  last week, but I wanted to remind you guys that tomorrow,
• 0:57
  actually tomorrow morning, the wife and I are hopping on a
• 0:59
  plane and going to spend a week in New Mexico.
• 1:03
  So why is that important? Because when I'm out there in
• 1:05
  New Mexico, I can't place legal sports books, mobile betting.
• 1:09
  I there are some casinos are going to be in Albuquerque as
• 1:13
  well as Roswell. I'm doing a UFUFO tour.
• 1:16
  Cannot wait for that. Yes, I'm a crazy UFO believer.
• 1:19
  The truth is out there as as Fox Mulder used to say.
• 1:21
  But then we're going to check out the Carlsbad Caverns, which
• 1:25
  are supposed to be amazing. So we're going to rent a car,
• 1:27
  drive down there, then we're going to finish up the trip in
• 1:30
  Santa Fe. And there are some, I think
• 1:32
  tribes, tribal casinos where I can place a bet.
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  But in terms of having access to my online accounts, that's going
• 1:39
  to pretty much end once we get to New Mexico.
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  So I wanted to put my bet in today, make sure I'm officially
• 1:44
  locked and loaded, make sure it's up there, and I will have
• 1:47
  this play ready to go. Although I will be making a
• 1:49
  wager at one of the casinos in person in New Mexico.
• 1:53
  So that's the reason why I put up and putting out today.
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  Just want to get it up there officially before I go cross
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  country here. I also want to say thank you to
• 2:01
  everyone who's been giving me New Mexico recommendations.
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  Bars, restaurants. The Carlsbad Caverns sound
• 2:08
  amazing. That was one thing I didn't know
• 2:10
  about that someone gave a great, a great recommendation to.
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  So keep them coming. We're also going to be visiting
• 2:15
  Walter White's house. I got the address to that.
• 2:18
  So we're going to drive by Walter White's house from
• 2:20
  Breaking Bad. Also going to see the Jesse
• 2:22
  Pinkman Walter White statue. And then we're also going to go
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  to Los Pollos Hermanos. So I got everything lined up
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  here. This is a work trip.
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  My wife got an award at work. That's why we're going out
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  there. I'm tagging along.
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  We're going to make the most of it.
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  So keep sending your New Mexico recommendations.
• 2:38
  Beyond that, guys, I do have a three pack of sweats for you.
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  So we'll talk Super Bowl official best bet.
• 2:43
  And then three college hoops plays for tonight because we
• 2:45
  have a smaller than usual slate, about 20 games overall.
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  But I'm looking at some some very short money line home
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  favorites here. Trying to get two out of three
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  and eek out a winning night. Now looking back toward the
• 2:55
  weekend guys. Hope everyone had a great
• 2:57
  weekend. I actually went back home to
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  visit the parents because we had to drop off Metal Pup, our
• 3:02
  yellow lab who just turned 3. Can't believe she's grown up so
• 3:05
  fast but had to leave her with grandma and grandpa out in the
• 3:07
  woods in Western Mass for a week.
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  But had a good time and decent betting, especially in college
• 3:13
  basketball. If you read the Sharp report
• 3:15
  that I write for visen.com, you can always check it out from my
• 3:17
  Twitter page at Josh under score Insights. 2IN1 Saturday had both
• 3:22
  Baylor and Oklahoma come through and then also had a three and O
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  Sunday with Wright State, Sacred Heart and Saint Thomas coming
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  through. So nice.
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  Five in one weekend in college basketball.
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  For those of you who paid attention to the Sharp report or
• 3:35
  getting these best bets that are posted to Juice Reel which you
• 3:38
  can always find the ASG pod best bets on the weekend.
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  The only loser aside from college hoops was UFC MAGA
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  Madoff. Our guy split decision couldn't
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  get the winner there. So it was disappointing because
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  I wasn't able to watch the fight, but he dished out.
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  I saw in the stats some pretty good punishment, but
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  unfortunately he lost as a 30 year old to a 37 year old.
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  So couldn't get our biting play, but a pretty good weekend in
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  college hoops if you had some of those games that we that we
• 4:04
  mentioned. With that being said, guys,
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  let's start off with some college hoops and then we'll
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  finish up the pod with the official best bet of mine for
• 4:12
  the Super Bowl. You can tail, you can fade, you
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  can do whatever you want, but I'm going to give you my bet
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  that I just put in and I have in pocket.
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  So talking college hoops to start the new week here.
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  First week in February, 1st game I want to mention have a three
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  pack overall is a little known matchup.
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  There's a very small matchup here, UT Rio Grande Valley
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  against Northwestern State. So I'll give you the background
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  here and then also going to give you a big reason why I like
• 4:37
  Northwestern State in this one on the money line.
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  So going in, we have UT Rio Grande Valley 13 and 9 on the
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  year, just snapped. However, A2 game losing streak
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  with an 83 to 73 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi.
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  They won that game outright as a 2 point home dog.
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  On the other hand, Northwestern State 9:00 and 12:00 on the
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  year, they've dropped two in a row and just got rolled by East
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  Texas A&M 72 to 50, lost outright as a 3 1/2 point home
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  favorite. So what have you seen across the
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  market here? Well, this game opened at a pick
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  em right down the middle. And we've seen all movement
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  liability go to Northwestern State.
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  Northwestern State went from a pick up to -1 some shops now
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  even -1 1/2. So it's been pretty consistent.
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  When this thing opened at a pick, looks like wise guys said,
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  hey, we got Northwestern State, slight favorite here.
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  Therefore it created value to play them early when they're out
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  of pick em. What also is important to me is
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  that this is an added game, extra game, which we can dust
• 5:31
  off our obscure sharp line move system.
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  This is game 306-521-3065 to two.
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  Why is that important? Because public doesn't care
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  about this game. It's extremely low bet.
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  Public can't even find this game on their betting app, which if
• 5:46
  we then see a line move in games like this, we know it's not the
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  public. You know, it's sharp,
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  professional. Better to have specifically
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  targeted the game at Circa. I love the splits on
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  Northwestern State. They're only getting 50% of
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  spread bets, but 80% of spread dollars.
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  So good low bets, higher dollars bet split from the sharps out
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  there in the desert in Vegas. Of course there's a money line
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  play for me. I was able to get Northwestern
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  State at -115 at Caesar's again, Some books are closer to like
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  -120 but hey, it open as a pick em.
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  It's minus one 1 1/2. Northwestern State odds makers
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  are telling us this could be a very close game.
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  We're probably gonna have to sweat this one.
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  I'm sure we'll be back and forth.
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  Maybe we'll get lucky and Northwestern State will play
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  well from start to finish. But whole point being, odds
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  makers are telling us it's going to be close.
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  So I don't want to lay a 1 1/2 lose if they win by one or lay
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  A1 and push if they win by 1. So there's a money line play for
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  me. Again, not bad -115 at Caesars.
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  Also important to money line because Northwestern State is
• 6:43
  predicted to win just by one point.
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  According to our guy, Ken Palm has them winning 71 to 70.
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  Also, do you know the Northwestern State mascot, the
• 6:52
  demons? Let's go demons, baby.
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  Northwestern State also has a lot of fishy buy low value
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  because they are a short home favorite with a losing record
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  who just got blown out against a team sell high.
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  Road dog with a winning record was coming off a win so I kind
• 7:06
  of want to buy low. Northwestern State sell high on
• 7:09
  UT Rio Grande Valley. Then I was looking at some
• 7:11
  advanced analytics here in Northwestern state, some noble
• 7:14
  notable advantages. They have the better defensive
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  efficiency. They ranked 236 in the country
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  versus 274 for Rio Grande Valley.
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  Better offensive rebound percentage 34% versus 32% and
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  better three-point shooting 32% versus 30%.
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  Of course, we always got to look at Home Rd.
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  Hopefully this is an add an added bonus or edge here for us
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  tonight because Northwestern State is 6 and three at home
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  this year. UT Rio is 2 and six on the road.
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  So again, one of the lowest, least popular games of the
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  night. But again, obscure sharp line
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  move lines gone. Northwestern State good splits
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  at Circa Ken Palms got him winning.
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  Our friends at Rhythm, by the way, had Northwestern state
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  -1.7. So I'm going to bank on
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  hopefully the demons coming through for us tonight.
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  Starter night off with a winner. That would be a great start.
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  Let's go Northwestern state -115 money line next one for you.
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  8:00 matchup. Little more heavily bet we have
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  Charleston visiting William and Mary.
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  Bill and Mary against Charleston.
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  Charleston 17 and five on the year.
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  They've had a really good season.
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  They've won two in a row. Just took down Stony Brook 81 to
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  74. However, they were a 16 1/2
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  point home favorite there so didn't cover, but they won.
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  On the other hand, Bill and Mary 13 and 9 on the year, just saw
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  their two game win streak come to an end.
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  However, they got crushed by Campbell 96 to 55.
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  I had to double check that final score.
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  I believe that's right, lost out rate as a 2 1/2 point Rd.
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  favorite. So what have you seen across the
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  market here? Well, this isn't an obscure
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  sharp line move, but it's a pretty big drastic steam move in
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  favor of Charleston. Charleston open this game around
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  A2 point Rd. favorite. Basically the public is split
• 8:53
  down the middle. They don't know where to go.
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  Do we lay the points of Charleston?
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  Do we take the points of William and Mary?
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  But what do we always talk about?
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  5050 ticket split means there's no contrarian value, but it
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  makes that line move more meaningful because
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  theoretically, in a vacuum, if the tickets are split down the
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  middle, you would assume that the odds makers have balanced
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  action, no need to adjust the price.
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  However, 5050 and you see a line move, go with that line move
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  because it's telling you that it's driven mostly by respected
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  betters, not any kind of public influence.
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  But anyway, if you look at Circa, only 54% bets, 90% money
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  on Charleston, a great bet split in this one in favor of
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  Charleston. You also look at Ken Palm, he
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  has Charleston winning by two. So as a result, I want to go
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  money line here. I got Charleston on the money
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  line at -156 at FanDuel. Make sure you shop around cuz
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  some books are as high as -170 but Charleston is also ranked
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  much higher. Ken Palms got him 130th in the
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  country versus 214 for William and Mary.
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  And of course, money line play for me because I do not want to
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  see Charleston win by 1-2 or three and lose a -, 3 1/2.
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  So I'm willing to pay a little bit more of a premium here just
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  to make sure they win the game and we cash our ticket.
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  But also like the fact that at DraftKings, Charleston is
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  getting 68% of money line bets, nearly 80% of money line dollars
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  tells me we got a low bets, higher dollar bets split on on
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  Charleston to win the game outright.
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  Charleston by the way, better defensive efficiency 148 in the
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  country versus three O 4 for William and Mary and they take
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  better care of the ball. They rank 114 in the country in
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  turnover percentage. William and Mary ranks 241st or
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  241. Also, our friends at Rhythm,
• 10:34
  they have Charleston -3.1. So Ken Palms got him by two,
• 10:37
  Rhythms got him by three. The line is steamed in favor of
• 10:40
  Charleston. We got good splits.
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  Let's just make sure we win the game instead of having to win by
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  four more. So I am a money linebacker of
• 10:47
  Charleston tonight. I got a -, 156 at FanDuel.
• 10:51
  Again, some books are a little bit higher, so make sure you get
• 10:53
  that best number and shop around.
• 10:56
  Last bed of the night, North Texas and UAB 9:00 game here
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  Tonight we have North Texas coming in 16 and five.
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  Just saw their six game win streak, however, come to an end.
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  They lost to UTSA 54 to 50. They lost outright as a 14 1/2
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  point home favorite. Meanwhile, UAB 14 and 8, they're
• 11:14
  hot. They've won seven of their last
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  eight. Just crushed Charlotte 96 to 78,
• 11:19
  covering as a 12 1/2 point home favorite.
• 11:21
  So what have you seen across the market here?
• 11:24
  Very sharp movement in favor of UAB.
• 11:26
  Let's go Blazers, baby. UAB open this game as a very
• 11:30
  short one point home favorite and we've now seen UAB get get
• 11:34
  steamed up to -2 1/2. So pretty clear here.
• 11:38
  Short opener for UAB. Looks like pro said, hey, we got
• 11:41
  this thing closer to two or three, so let's hammer UAB at -1
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  'cause that big sharp line move in their favor.
• 11:47
  We have seen some shops even creep, creep toward -3 So it's
• 11:51
  really been one sided movement in favor of UAB without really
• 11:54
  any notable buyback on North Texas.
• 11:56
  Getting to the splits here, UAB looks pretty good at DraftKings.
• 11:59
  They're getting 66% of spread bets, 73% of spread dollars,
• 12:04
  circa 78% of spread bets, 90% of spread dollars.
• 12:09
  So both the big national DraftKings as well as the sharp
• 12:12
  Vegas circa both have low bets, higher dollars in favor of UAB.
• 12:16
  There's a money line play for me.
• 12:17
  So I got UAB at -145 at FanDuel once again.
• 12:22
  Again, you don't want to see UAB win by two or one and you lose
• 12:25
  your 2 1/2. So there's a money line play for
• 12:27
  me. But also I like the fact that
• 12:29
  UAB has a couple really big advantages in this one.
• 12:32
  One, they're kind of fishy because North Texas has the
• 12:35
  better record, 16 and five. UAB is 14 and 8.
• 12:38
  Yet UAB open as a short favorite and became more of a favorite.
• 12:41
  So this isn't, this is basically a team of the worst record, even
• 12:44
  though you apply homecourt opening as a favorite and
• 12:47
  becoming more of a favorite. Also, UAB, much better offensive
• 12:51
  efficiency. Now, if you've never seen North
• 12:53
  Texas play, they're slow. They play a lot of defense.
• 12:56
  There are a lot of good defensive metrics.
• 12:57
  They're kind of like Virginia in that regard.
• 13:00
  So they catch a lot of unders, and we actually saw this one
• 13:02
  fall as things like 139 down to 136 1/2.
• 13:06
  But anyway, UAB has the much better offense, 41st in
• 13:10
  offensive efficiency. North Texas is 116 better
• 13:14
  offensive rebound percentage, 39% versus 34%.
• 13:18
  UAB takes better care of the ball.
• 13:20
  They ranked 21 in turnover percentage compared to 213 for
• 13:23
  North Texas. And just look at the points per
• 13:26
  game. UAB is averaging 85 points per
• 13:28
  game. North Texas averages 69 points
• 13:32
  per game. UAB, by the way, 10 and three at
• 13:34
  home this year. And then lastly, our friends at
• 13:36
  Rhythm have UAB -2.1. So we have a very sharp line
• 13:41
  move. We have a bunch of stat
• 13:42
  advantages. We have great bet splits.
• 13:44
  We got a good home team and a team that can put up points, so
• 13:47
  let's see if UAB can come through for the team tonight.
• 13:50
  I got UAB money line -145 S Northwestern State, Charleston
• 13:55
  and UAB all money lines. Let's try to go 2 and one and
• 13:58
  start our week off on a winning note.
• 14:01
  Now with that being said, let's get to the Super Bowl baby.
• 14:05
  Of course, this is a game that I've had my eye on for quite a
• 14:07
  while, ever since the line came out and I pretty much knew who I
• 14:11
  was going to bet from the beginning.
• 14:12
  But I didn't wanted to be solely a principal bet.
• 14:16
  I wanted it to be a data-driven bet.
• 14:17
  And I believe at least until now, I mean, things could change
• 14:21
  between now and Sunday. Typically this is the week where
• 14:24
  you see a lot of action come in. But at least opener till now I
• 14:28
  have kind of that that perfect scenario where it is a principal
• 14:31
  bet and it is a data-driven bet. And that of course is on the
• 14:37
  Chiefs. Let's go Chiefs.
• 14:39
  I am a Chiefs backer in the Super Bowl.
• 14:41
  I told you guys I was leaning Chiefs from the start.
• 14:44
  I wanted to get the best money line price, but because I'm
• 14:46
  going to New Mexico, I had to put this thing in before I got
• 14:49
  on the plane and went to and went out West.
• 14:52
  So with that being said, let me give you a data-driven
• 14:54
  perspective on the Chiefs and then I'm going to give you kind
• 14:57
  of my principal play here on Kansas City as well.
• 15:00
  So I'm going Chiefs money line. I got Chiefs on the money line
• 15:03
  at -124 at FanDuel. I was really hoping to get -120
• 15:07
  or less, but again, I got it. I got to go out to New Mexico,
• 15:10
  so I got to put it in now. So if you want to wait out and
• 15:13
  maybe get a better price, that is totally available to you.
• 15:16
  However, I'm going money line here first because the Chiefs
• 15:19
  are -1 1/2 and I am a money line short favorite person.
• 15:22
  You guys know that by now. We do it quite a bit in college
• 15:24
  hoops. So many, countless times in
• 15:26
  college hoops, you money line A-Team and they win but don't
• 15:29
  cover the number. I want to make sure all I have
• 15:31
  to do is win this game. Maybe they go for two, maybe
• 15:34
  there's a safety. Maybe something crazy happens
• 15:37
  where it becomes a very tight margin of victory.
• 15:39
  The odds makers are telling you it's going to be a close game.
• 15:42
  You know, we open this one KC -1 they're up to 1 1/2.
• 15:45
  Some shops are juiced toward 2. They've even gotten to two at
• 15:48
  some shops and come back down South.
• 15:50
  Neutral site. Again, very short number.
• 15:53
  I would hate to lay 1 1/2 with Kansas City just because I
• 15:55
  really wanted to save the juice where they win by 1 and you lose
• 15:59
  a 1 1/2. I could not sleep.
• 16:00
  I couldn't sleep at night if if I did that.
• 16:03
  So it's a money line play for me, money line short favorites.
• 16:06
  Just need Chiefs to win the game -124 mitigate some risk, avoid a
• 16:10
  one point win where you lose a 1 1/2.
• 16:13
  In terms of the data-driven perspective, really all movement
• 16:16
  liability has been on Kansas City.
• 16:18
  So they open -1 or 1 1/2. The minus ones got up to 1 1/2.
• 16:22
  The 1 1/2 have stayed 1 1/2. I just mentioned, you know, last
• 16:25
  week at times you saw some games get to two.
• 16:27
  It's really important to me. The fact that we really haven't
• 16:30
  gotten down to chiefs -1 like that was my concern.
• 16:33
  If I'm going to play Kansas City, I need them to stay 1 1/2
• 16:36
  or higher. I don't want to get them down to
• 16:38
  one. Yes, I'd get a better money line
• 16:40
  price, but that would tell me I'm getting a better price
• 16:42
  because there was some respect to money that took Philadelphia.
• 16:45
  So it looks to me like the odds makers have taken a position on
• 16:47
  Kansas City. The fact that the line is either
• 16:49
  stayed the same or moved in their favor, it's really never
• 16:52
  fallen toward Philadelphia. Then we get out to Circa.
• 16:56
  I noticed today I hadn't looked at the split since Friday when I
• 16:59
  was back home visiting the fam. But I looked at them today.
• 17:02
  They look really good at Circa at Circa out in Vegas.
• 17:05
  Sharp Book again prides itself on accepting smart money.
• 17:08
  The Chiefs are currently getting 52% of spread bets, but 68% of
• 17:13
  spread dollars. So basically you have a split
• 17:16
  ticket count. Now it's a little bit more at
• 17:18
  DraftKings right now. I want to say 56% of bets on
• 17:21
  Kansas City. I also like the fact, guys, that
• 17:23
  Kansas City is not getting 7080% of tickets.
• 17:26
  Like, I like the fact that this is not like some people will
• 17:29
  tell you, oh, Kansas City's the public play.
• 17:32
  Well, by definition, yes, they are because they're getting, you
• 17:35
  know, 51 percent or more. But you got to remember they
• 17:37
  aren't getting 7080%. They're getting 52% at Circa and
• 17:42
  they're getting 56% of DraftKings.
• 17:44
  That's basically just a slight, slight, very ever so slight
• 17:48
  public lean. That is not a quote UN quote
• 17:50
  public play. To me, public plays are 65% of
• 17:53
  bets or more. So I like the fact that they're
• 17:55
  not super public. I like the fact that the line
• 17:57
  has stayed the same room in their favor.
• 17:59
  I like the fact that at Circa they're only getting half the
• 18:01
  tickets, but you know, basically two out of $3.00.
• 18:05
  So we're checking off some boxes here.
• 18:07
  Line movement, liability, bet split, low bets, higher dollars,
• 18:10
  not to public. Then we get into the home stuff.
• 18:13
  Mohms is 16 and O straight up as a favorite this year he's 95 and
• 18:17
  22, straight up 81%. And his career as a favorite and
• 18:22
  the postseason as a favorite, he's 13 and three straight up
• 18:25
  81%. I also saw a tweet and I wanted
• 18:28
  to mention this because I thought it was meaningful, but
• 18:31
  Patrick Mahomes has faced a team that is either has, how do I say
• 18:36
  this? Patrick Holmes has faced
• 18:38
  Victoria Fangio 8 times in which Fangio is either the head coach
• 18:41
  or the D coordinator. What is Mahomes record in those
• 18:43
  games 8 and O? So of course Philly has a great
• 18:47
  defense, but Mahomes has seen these Fangio defenses before and
• 18:51
  he's undefeated. Then we get to, of course, our
• 18:54
  friends at Rhythm, and I have two Rhythm models here.
• 18:57
  One says Chiefs should be -2.2. The other one says Chiefs should
• 19:01
  be -5 Man, I love that. I love that.
• 19:04
  We got a 5 right there. Maybe that's a little high, but
• 19:07
  just goes to show you, you know, the advanced analytics with
• 19:11
  Rhythm are pretty bullish here in Kansas City.
• 19:13
  So that's all the data. Then I'm going to give you the
• 19:15
  principal play. The principal play is I ain't
• 19:19
  betting against Patrick Mahomes. We should make that a T-shirt.
• 19:22
  I ain't betting against Mahomes now.
• 19:24
  I learned the hard way, if we go on our time machine, go back two
• 19:27
  years, Super Bowl against the Eagles, Eagles versus Chiefs
• 19:31
  couple years ago. I have told you guys this story
• 19:34
  before. You're probably sick of me
• 19:35
  saying it, but this is my genesis of not betting against
• 19:38
  Mahomes. I did bet against Mahomes in
• 19:41
  that first Super Bowl, Philly, Kansas City couple years ago and
• 19:43
  I lost. And I mentioned this before, but
• 19:46
  right before the game started, my father-in-law looked at me,
• 19:49
  said hey Josh, who you going with?
• 19:50
  I said, oh, I'm going Philly. For whatever reasons I had at
• 19:53
  the time, I thought I was right. Of course, he looked at me and
• 19:56
  said, you're really betting against Mahomes.
• 19:58
  And with the most inquisitive, dumbfounded look.
• 20:01
  And I kind of smiled and said, yeah, I'd already bet the game.
• 20:04
  You know, I bought the ticket time to take the ride.
• 20:06
  But that stood with me. And the minute he said that, I
• 20:09
  got nervous. Of course, I end up losing the
• 20:11
  game. I made a vow, a pact, a
• 20:14
  principled, you know, vendetta promised to myself that I would
• 20:18
  never again bet against Mahomes. Now, since I made that, that
• 20:21
  that promise to myself. I was all over the Chiefs last
• 20:25
  year's Super Bowl. A lot of people were on 49ers
• 20:29
  and I don't I don't argue with that, but I kept pounding the
• 20:32
  table. Mahomes the dog came through for
• 20:34
  me. I played Kansas City the last
• 20:37
  week against the Bills, not going to bet against Mahomes in
• 20:39
  a in a big game. Mahomes came through for me
• 20:41
  again. So since making that valve,
• 20:44
  never betting against Mahomes, I'm undefeated.
• 20:46
  I don't see a reason to to to to stray from that that take or
• 20:51
  perspective now and the biggest game obviously of the season.
• 20:55
  I'll give you some other angles here just aside from not betting
• 20:57
  it's Mahomes. You know, it's not all Mahomes.
• 21:00
  I mean, the experience obviously of Mahomes is huge, but the
• 21:03
  coaching of Andy Reid being in the spot Super Bowl experience,
• 21:06
  Andy Reid off a bye. You love those stats as well.
• 21:09
  It's really this Chiefs team in this big game spot where they've
• 21:13
  been there before. Yes, Philly, Philly was here a
• 21:15
  couple years ago, but they got a lot of young guys who don't have
• 21:18
  nearly the experience of Mahomes and company and of course money
• 21:23
  line short favorites. Again, I don't want to win by 1
• 21:25
  and and lose a 1 1/2. So that is my bet.
• 21:28
  Chiefs money line hopefully win the Super Bowl.
• 21:33
  I've I've I've made my decision. It's in pocket.
• 21:35
  The bets been placed -124 Chiefs money line at FanDuel now should
• 21:41
  have some prop bets. I'm going to be out in New
• 21:43
  Mexico. So I believe we're going to have
• 21:45
  a rhythm live stream at some point, the Super Bowl live
• 21:47
  stream. I will be doing, of course,
• 21:49
  podcasts out in New Mexico and you can read my sharp reports
• 21:52
  ofeaston.com. So don't think like this is
• 21:54
  just, you know, Super Bowl here and then that's it.
• 21:56
  Now we'll have more coverage throughout the week, but I
• 21:58
  wanted to get that in now, get it in today.
• 22:01
  Just make sure I'm good to go moving forward.
• 22:04
  So that about does it guys. Another pod here in the books.
• 22:06
  Episode 211 starting off a new week on a Monday.
• 22:10
  This is the part of the pod where we wrap things up and we
• 22:13
  start first by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 22:16
  out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull the chair to
• 22:19
  the virtual bar and sweat some sharp contrarian breakdowns with
• 22:22
  me. It means so much that we've
• 22:24
  built this community and win, lose or draw, we're betting
• 22:27
  based on data, based on information, based on stats,
• 22:30
  based on the market, not based on our our bias and instinct.
• 22:34
  So if you enjoy this pod and hopefully it's helped you to
• 22:37
  make some sharper bets, then please do me a solid and give
• 22:40
  this podcast a five star review. If you're listening on Spotify
• 22:43
  or iTunes, click five stars. It would go a long way to
• 22:46
  helping us continue to grow the podcast.
• 22:48
  If you want to click the follow button, that way you'll get
• 22:50
  alerted as soon as it drops each day.
• 22:52
  And if you want to recommend it to a friend or leave a comment
• 22:56
  on the review page, that will be also much appreciated.
• 22:59
  Secondly, if you enjoy the style of bedding breakdown, you've now
• 23:02
  been turned on to data-driven bedding and tracking and
• 23:04
  following line movement. Well, guess what?
• 23:07
  If you want to learn more about data-driven betting, I wrote a
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  book support the team gifted to that friend of yours who parlays
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  every home favorite and you know, chases losses and double s
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  down and triples down when they're losing.
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  And get that book for you or that friend in your life or
• 23:22
  family member or colleague or Co worker, some person who maybe
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  maybe is in a newly legalized state or wants to give sports
• 23:29
  betting a try and has no way or clue where to begin.
• 23:32
  And that's totally understandable.
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  But gift them my book. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
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  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
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  Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
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  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
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  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
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  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
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  person or online, how to go contrarian, how to set up a
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  bankroll management plan. All chapters on all the major
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  sports, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
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  Betting. So grab a copy, bring it to the
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  book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or ginger
• 24:02
  ale and we'll sweat some games together next.
• 24:04
  Have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or
• 24:07
  Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, what are
• 24:09
  you waiting for? You got to do it now.
• 24:10
  Super Bowl week With Rhythm you'll have coverage for game
• 24:14
  bets and player props. If you've been in player props
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  in the Super Bowl, you definitely should look at the
• 24:18
  rhythm predictions and apply them to your handicap.
• 24:21
  And then of course Juice Reel. If you want to follow the all
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  systems go best bets for $4.99 a week.
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  You can do it from the Juice Reel app by going to the social
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  tab and click find juicers. Type in ASG under score podcast.
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  You can also follow the Robo Jackson best bet picks.
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  You can get actual dollar breakdowns from everyone who's
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  synced their sports book up to the app for the Super Bowl and
• 24:42
  all other games on juice reel. You also get sharp mush
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  indicators, arbitrage opportunity.
• 24:47
  Shop for the best line. I'm kind of starting to look at
• 24:50
  MLB win totals and I noticed on Juice Reel there's a good place
• 24:54
  to basically find the best win totals.
• 24:57
  So I'm going to give it some time.
• 24:58
  But I love that feature as well. So sign up and download Juice
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  Reel or Rhythm and you can you can be off to the races.
• 25:06
  They're making sharper bets, applying them to your
• 25:09
  data-driven toolbox. So that about does it on a
• 25:12
  Monday. Guys, I wish you the best of
• 25:14
  luck here tonight. I'll leave you with a couple
• 25:15
  things as always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic
• 25:19
  City, Twin River in Rhode Island in the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 25:22
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 25:25
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my
• 25:28
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts, out in the desert
• 25:30
  where the true grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his
• 25:33
  number runners with lowest juice possible is found the South
• 25:36
  Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
• 25:38
  stadium swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
• 25:41
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
• 25:44
  and you're going to show me over the weekend.
• 25:46
  Baylor, Oklahoma, Wright State, Sacred Heart, Saint Thomas.
• 25:51
  Just don't show me. MAGA Madoff.
• 25:52
  He let us down in the UFC. But either way, guys, first
• 25:55
  one's on me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
• 25:57
  book. So that's some sharp contrarian
• 25:59
  plays together. As always, my words of wisdom
• 26:03
  that I've learned over time and my great mentors standing on the
• 26:07
  shoulders of giants have taught me stay sharp, stay contrarian.
• 26:11
  Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
• 26:13
  house. Always be with the smart money,
• 26:15
  never against it. Will smart money win every time?
• 26:17
  Nope. Unfortunately it won't.
• 26:18
  Betting's hard. Make a sharp bet, it can still
• 26:20
  lose. But here's the thing, over the
• 26:22
  course of the long haul, forest amongst the trees, marathon, not
• 26:26
  a Sprint, the sharp plays are going to win a majority of the
• 26:28
  time. So you got to stick with it and
• 26:30
  not get too high, not or not get too low and stick to the
• 26:33
  blueprint against the public with the house, with the pros,
• 26:36
  flat bet, avoid parlays and get that closing line value.
• 26:40
  If we can do that long term, we're going to be successful
• 26:42
  sports bettors. So have a great Monday night
• 26:44
  everybody. Let's try to go 2 and one in
• 26:46
  college hoops tonight and then I will be jumping on a plane and I
• 26:50
  will next be speaking to you from the desert in New Mexico
• 26:54
  where where the where the alleged alien craft fell in
• 26:59
  Roswell in 1947. I'm going to get to the bottom
• 27:02
  of it. When I go out there, I'll give
• 27:03
  you guys my findings and I'm not joking.
• 27:05
  That's something that I'm interested in doing.
• 27:07
  But anyway, have a great night everybody.
• 27:09
  Good luck and I will see you tomorrow for episode 212 of the
• 27:13
  All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 27:17
  Good luck and have a great night.