Latest / Backchecking the Bolts / Are the Tampa Bay Lightning Better on Paper? | Vasilevskiy Concerns & Kucherov's Next Contract
Transcript
- Jason Linkes: Coming up on Back Checking the Bolts. Welcome to Back Checking the Bolts. Back Checking the Bolts is your cup of coffee to get you the latest on the Tampa Bay Lightning. Join hosts Jason Lincoln and the managing editor of Raw Charge, Justin Godfrey, as they break down the Lightning's most recent games and go beyond the highlights, telling you what the box scores didn't. It's time to drop the puck. Hi everybody and welcome to Back Checking the Bolts. I'm your host, Jason Lincas, and as always, I am joined by the managing editor of Raw Charge. He is Justin Godfrey. You can read him each and every day over at Raw Charge, www.rawcharge.com. Today we got three topics for you. Are the bolts better on paper today than when Carolina raised the cup a few weeks ago when they defeated the Vegas Golden Knights for the Stanley Cup? We're going to talk about the lightning backup goaltending situation. They were able to get Dennis Hill to be in the trade with Toronto when they sent Nick Paul over to the Maple Leafs. But if Vasileski is out for a sizable amount of time, can they survive? And finally, we're going to talk about the possible Nikita Kucharov extension. Starting on July 1st, he's been eligible to sign an extension. He has one year left at 9.5 million against the cap. What is a hometown discount for the Lightning when it comes to that extension? Now it's time to bring in Justin Godfrey from Rod Charge. Justin, I'm gonna ask you that question. Are the bolts better on paper today than when Carolina raised the cup a few weeks ago? Yes, yes, they are. That's pretty much all we need to say, right? Okay, ladies and gentlemen, that's the podcast. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Thanks a lot. Go bolts. That's right. All right. Next question, please. Yeah, so th they are a better ⁓ squad than they were, you know, when unfortunately they lost in the first round to the Montreal Canadians. ⁓ again, everything that we're doing is is based on speculation. We don't know what's gonna happen. When everybody takes the ice, just like Florida doesn't know what's gonna happen when the Kachuk brothers play together, Boston doesn't know how JJ Petrka is gonna play in you know, up with the Bruins. So it's gonna be how this team gels. I I think looking at it on paper, looking at the stats, I do think that they're a better team now. ⁓ the John Carlson thing makes it kind of a okay You know, free agency period to a really good free agency period. They they filled that the biggest hole that they had, which was losing Darren Radish. ⁓ Jeffrey Veal, I think, is an improvement on Corey Perry on the fourth line. We can debate the contract all we want, but you know, at this point the contract's done and it's signed. There's nothing else to talk about. Now it's about the play on the ice. And I think his play on the ice is going to be better than what Corey Perry brought last year. So that's an improvement on the fourth line. ⁓ Is Ilya Mikhaoff going to be better than Oliver Borkstrand? I think that's your comparison right there. And based on his history, I think he brings a little bit more depth to the game than Bjorkstrand had. He's not quite as one dimensional. and then I think the third big one is, you know, is Dominic James ready to take Nick Paul's place? You know, the trade of Nick Paul up to Toronto is kind of the big loss that the Lightning had other than Radish. So those are kind of The areas I'm looking at as far as did the lightning improve or not. And I think in pretty much all those, the answer is pretty much yes. ⁓ face offs are still gonna be a concern, but hopefully Braden Point's gotten better at that. ⁓ Yani Gore's gotten better and if they can just even get to, you know, just average, they should be all right. So on paper, I think I everything's improved. ⁓ I know we'll talk about Hildeby and Johansson in a little bit, but I think that was a actually a really good move. ⁓ I think that's a really big improvement when you start diving into the numbers a little bit. So Basically on paper, I think the Lightning did a really good job. Let's not lie, the Lightning were really good last year. It's not like this is an eighty point team trying to get to a hundred points. The Lightning put up 106 points. There weren't a lot of holes. They we knew that most of the team was going to come back, right? Julian Bricebois said it at the at his exit interview. He didn't expect the lineup to change much, and nor should he. This is a very good team, especially five on five, which is where most of the games played. So the Lightning didn't have a lot of holes to fill. The ones that they did Like I said, the Darren Raddish one, they they did the best they could to, if nothing else, at least break even in that position, maybe a little bit better. You know, John Carlson, if he can keep it going, brings a lot of dynamic ⁓ play to the game. So it could be fun to watch. Now let's talk a little bit about that Carlson Raddish exchange. Radish, of course, was traded to Toronto, signed the long term deal up there. Radish was a little bit of an interesting situation because you're basically giving him an extension, Toronto is based on fifty games, because previous to that he was a sixth or seventh defenseman. It wasn't until really Victor Hedman was out of the lineup that he became the defenseman that he was. I'm gonna ask this question in two parts. John Carlson replacing Darren Radish. For every part of his Lightning tenure, but the last fifty games is a huge improvement. But what Darren Radish brought to the power play and what he brought five on five to the Lightning offense attack from the blue line, that's something that at this stage in his career, Carlson just does not have. Are the Lightning going to need Victor Headman to be Victor Headman again? I think they're gonna need him to be close to Victor Headman. I don't think they need one hundred percent headman. ⁓ But if he can get his game back to 70, 80% of of what he showed before last year, I think they're gonna be okay. And the same can be said for Brain Point. I mean, I think more than anything, more than their free agency moves, even getting point and headman back to where they were or close facsimilies to what they were is gonna be the best thing to keep the lightning atop the ⁓ the division. That's that's where they're gonna get the most improvement. If they can get point back to that kind of 90 point, 40 goal. ⁓ pace that he's shown in the past. ⁓ that's gonna be a tremendous boost to their offense. It's gonna help their power play. It's gonna take some of the pressure off of John Carlson back at the point. You know, he doesn't have that big booming shot that Terran Raddish had. ⁓ but he also gets the puck on net more than than Raddish did. So for a lightning team that loves deflections and tips and rebounds in front of the net, I I think that's a good benefit. ⁓ Kutras still gonna have be able to set him up for one timers from the point. I think Carlson's probably a little bit better passer than Radish was. So, you know, you may see him bring in some more ⁓ offense that way as well. So it's gonna be interesting to see how they do. But again, I think they're still gonna need a big year out of headman. I don't think he that he needs to be a number one defenseman for him, but it he needs to be basically better than he was last year. ⁓ which I think he if he was on this podcast, he would say the same thing. So th that's gonna help Carlson ease in. If they get all of that, then Cooper's gonna be able to manage the minutes of all of his big guys, right? And with them being slightly older, that's going to be an important thing, especially in an eighty-four game season. Let's talk a little bit about the defensive core. You had the Emil Littlebergs of the world really come out of nowhere and played a very pivotal role and played extremely well for the Bolts, especially down the stretch as they tried to overtake Buffalo for the division title. Do you think it's a lot to ask some of these guys to do it again? Now everybody's got the book on them. They've they were sort of forced into the lineup and at times, and you'd be the first to admit, it was a patchwork lineup at times with as many injuries as the Lightning had. But now these guys are gonna have a full training camp, but other teams are gonna see they're gonna seen these guys play. Do you think we might see a little bit of a regression in some of these defensemen, the Littlebergs of the world? Yeah, I think I think the two you're looking at, ⁓ probably Lilleberg and you know Charles Edward Destou. And I don't think it's a bad thing because I don't think they're gonna be relied on as heavily as they were last year. I mean, DeSue was playing basically twenty minutes a game by the end of the season, and he he fared really well. I mean, this guy was the ultimate professional. He was the ultimate journeyman defender. I mean, he'd been everywhere across the US, Canada, Europe, and then he comes in. He's I think he played four games in Syracuse, gets caught up to the big leagues and doesn't miss a beat. but part of it is if you have a healthy Victor Hetman, if you have a healthy Ryan McDonough, healthy John Carlson, healthy Eric Cherneck, you don't need him to play twenty minutes. He can go out there, he can give it his all for fifteen minutes a night, you know, twelve minutes a night. And I think you can be a little bit more productive, especially if Cooper can kind of slot him into ad advantageous matchups against, you know, maybe a fourth line, a third line or a third pairing. So I You know, even if he doesn't play as much as he does, and the same goes for Lilleberg, ⁓ I think they can still be effective parts of this team. So I think it kind of cuts both ways a little bit. When the Lightning traded Nick Paul, they were able to give goaltender Dennis Hill to be the big six foot-seven net minders, 24 years old, has limited NHL experience. I think it was a great move to improve on Jonas Johansson as the backup goaltender. But I asked the question if Andre Vasileschi, who's been as durable as any big time goaltender has been over the past ten years, if he were to go out for four weeks, six weeks, eight weeks, are the lightning in trouble? And and I say this because most teams now don't have one guy who plays sixty, sixty five games. More teams now do a fifty five, forty five kind of split. But the Lightning right now don't have a truly tested NHL netminder as your backup. Is that a point of concern? A little bit. I mean, anytime you have a goaltender that's going, you know, that's over 30 years old, over 31, and and we saw it two seasons ago when ⁓ Vasileski had the back problems to start the season, right? ⁓ and and to Jonah Jonas Johansson's credit, he came in and he did a passable job. I mean, he kept the lightning in it early in the race so that by the time Vasileschi came back, they weren't to the point where they couldn't make up the ground and and they did. They got hot later in the season and made it to the first round of the playoffs like they do every year now. I do think it is a concern. I do honestly think it is ⁓ part of the reason Hildeby's coming in this year. I I don't think Jonas Johansson was very good last year. Julian Breeswise talked about it. They didn't necessarily start the offseason thinking, hey, we need to trade for a young goalie. We need to we need to get Dennis Hildeby. But once he became available You know, and they start talking to Toronto about the Nick Paul deal, and you know, Hildeby kind of pushed out of a spot in in Toronto. He he snapped in, you know, he swept in and snapped him up. And honestly, I think it's a really good move. It kind of harkens back to some of these moves ⁓ Brees Bob made with forwards, you know, a a Brandon Hagel or a Nick Paul in in the first place, where he kind of catches him on a bit of an upswing. Dennis Hildeby was really, really good for a really, really bad team last year. ⁓ if you delve into some of his numbers ⁓ I think he only played twenty games or so for for Toronto. ⁓ but he posted, I believe it was something around an, you know, eighteen goals saved above expected. And that's one of those kind of catch all stats that doesn't tell an entire story, but it is something good to look at as to how a goaltender's doing with with the team in front of him. And, you know, that put him up something like twenty third or twenty fourth overall in the league. But that's also cumulative stats. So, you know, a guy who's playing sixty games is gonna be, you know, put that up there if he's good. Hildeby's at you know, eighteen goals, ⁓ you know, that's which is better than some starters. I think it was br better than what Brandon Bussey put up last year. And that was that guy was the darling of the of the league, right? He was the goaltender who came out of nowhere. And, you know, you could argue that Hildeby had better stats than he did. He was also really good shorthanded, which the Lightning love. They love a goaltender, you know, they love not giving up power play goals. So if he does have to come in and play a long stretch, I think Hildeby has the talent there. But ⁓ I think they're in a better position today than they were at the end of last year, if something happens to Vasileschi, ⁓ and he's out long term. I think he'll to be I wouldn't call him the goalie of the future, but he is at least the backup of the present. And I think he is gonna be a little bit more reliable than what Johanson was. And I kinda think that's why maybe the the lighting soured on him a little bit, you know, and started to think about maybe replacing him. And then when this opportunity came up, you know, they jumped on it and I think it's gonna be a good move. ⁓ I I think Hillary's gonna be around for a little while and it's gonna be fun to watch him play. I think one of the things that was impressive about Hildeby was the fact that his save percentage was over ninety-one percent, considering he played on a bad Toronto team, even though his r his record was five, seven and I think four, started sixteen games, but he really had a high save percentage, and I think if you're a Lightning fan, that is one thing you really want to look at as sort of a silver lining. Justin, I know that when they got Jeffrey VL, they wanted to get some toughness on the team. There was an article on heavy. Casino Guru, there was an a writer named Max Barlow, said they analyzed the most aggressive teams from hits, penalty minutes, major penalties, fighting, suspensions, fines. Who was the toughest team in the league last year, according to Casino Guru? This is Tampa Bay Lightning, right? Exactly. Yeah. It's weird to me. that and everybody when they signed VL said we need to get tougher. We need to get tougher. And again, you can make stats to pretty much come out with any outcome you really want. If I wanted to find a way to have the Lightning be the least aggressive team, it would be tough, but you could probably mix enough stats in there to do it. But with the fact that this said they were overwhelmingly the most aggressive team, are you a little bit surprised that getting an aggressive forward was one of the moves they wanted to make? I I I think it's kind of how you look at aggressive and physical, right? I I wonder what, you know, the heavy stats would look like if you take out Curtis Douglas and, you know, ⁓ Scott Sabron last year. Like if you just removed their ⁓ contributions to to the lineup. ⁓ the Lightning did have kind of that team mentality of especially when Douglas left the team of you may we may not have a true heavyweight, but if you pick on one of us, you're gonna pick on all of us. ⁓ I mean you would see Anthony Sorelli jump in it and, you know, God forbid anyone touch Brandon Hagel because Anthony Sorelli would come flying out of nowhere to to tackle you by the neck. ⁓ I mean we j saw Jake Gensel, for God's sakes, drop the gloves last year, right? ⁓ the smallest guy on the ice and he's, you know, swinging away. ⁓ so they kinda had that team packed mentality when it came to defending. But you also have to talk about the physical play ⁓ the stuff along the boards, the fore checking, the winning the puck battles, and I think Veal does add that to your team. He's a better skater than Corey Perry wasn't and I hate to pick on Cory Perry. The man's probably a Hall of Famer, ⁓ but he's at the end of his career. He was, I think, by some stats, the slowest person in the NHL last year and in the Lightning's division, you can only have so much of that. ⁓ and and the Lightning, you know, aren't the fleetest of foot teams. So to bring in somebody who's a little bit skater, better Jeffrey Beale's not blasting up and down the ice. He's not Valerie Buret. He's not Pavel Buret, right? But he's gonna be a little bit quicker. I say Valerie Burray wasn't expecting to go there. Candice Cameron would be happy. Yeah, exactly. We gotta remember all the Burets fan. but yeah, he's not gonna be that guy who's flying up and dice down the ice side. Mikhayoff, maybe. Like he he's ⁓ he's definitely a much better skater than than the Nick Paul's and the Corey Perry's of the world. But ⁓ you know, I I think he does bring in that toughness. He isn't like the biggest guy in the world, Jeffrey Beale we're talking about. ⁓ but he is somebody who's not gonna step back, you know, step down from a challenge. he's gonna be somebody who's gonna keep other teams honest, i if you like, you know, if that's something that that that floats your boat in the world of hockey. ⁓ so it's gonna be interesting to see how they do. I don't think they're gonna be as rough and tumble as they were last year. I think they kinda went over the line a few times. ⁓ you know, we talked about Buffalo. The Buffalo game, exactly. ⁓ some of those Florida matchups where, you know, I got the the what they had the one They were short-handed ten times, one one game against Florida last year. ⁓ so I I think a lot of that toughness, a lot of that physicality that that the article talked about was in isolated incidents. So, you know, they had really big games where they went out of went out of control. So you I think you're gonna see a little more even keeled lightning. They're gonna find that balance. I do think at times they went a little too heavy into that and it and it hurt their game. So if they can kind of dial that back, get back to some of the skill that they do have. It'll be interesting to see if if Veal does get let's say he gets 12 minutes a night every night, what can he produce? Towards the end of last year with Anaheim, that's what he was getting. And he showed that he's not, you know, an offensive black hole. He can actually contribute out there. So I think that's what the Lightninger are counting on. And I I think kinda like with Hildeby a little bit, and even though Veal is older, I think they're catching somebody who maybe hasn't reached his full potential yet. And ⁓ you get a couple years out of that and then you worry about the contract later. But ⁓ that's the kind of the fun part about the season, right? This game's not played on paper, it's played on the ice. He could end up being like the perfect foil. You know, he could be the perfect partner for Yanni Gord, you know, and then those two to take off and you got yourself a great fourth line that that could contribute and annoy the hell out of other other teams. So we'll see how it we'll see how it works. When we had Patrick President on from the hockey news, one of the things that I asked Patrick was tell us about his game and He actually complimented his offensive upside. He said, Hey, it's he's not a guy that you want out there more than about ten to twelve minutes. But he said there is some skill there, and I did find it a little bit unique that for a guy who's a fourth liner, a grinder, known as a tough guy, he was the MVP of I think it was the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League playoff. I can't remember off the top of my head, but he was the MVP of the playoffs. You don't typically see that from a guy who's an enforcer at any point in the resume. So maybe there is a little bit more offensive grit there. I'm still surprised that a guy who was basically a minor leaguer got rewarded with a five-year deal. But hey, he's on the team now. We'll have to see what happens. But Justin, the Lightning have a situation. It's not a bad one right now. Nikita Kucharov, he's going to be playing his last year at 9.5 million against the salary cap. They're gonna have to sign him to an extension, and when they do, he's gonna be thirty-four years old. My question to you is now with some of the recent signings. You have Bedard signing for fifteen, Jason Robertson, one year twelve million. He's a ninety point scorer. You know he's gonna go to the open market, and as long as he doesn't get hurt, he's gonna get a ton of money. What is a hometown discount for the Lightning when it comes to Nikita Kucharov? Honestly, I I I think it would be the Yo, and you'll the cap hit of Jason Robertson. Anything 12 million, I would say 12 million or less is a hometown discount for a Kutrov. We just posted the article yesterday about what we thought he was going to sign for. ⁓ and doing the research into it, he's such a unicorn of a player. ⁓ usually when you got these players that are these these high end elite players, like these top five players of the league. They're usually not free agents at the age of thirty three, you thirty-two, thirty-three, thirty-four. They're usually finishing out, you know, they usually got two or three years left on on their big mega contract that they s they've signed. ⁓ if you look at like somebody like Sidney Crosby, I think he when he was thirty-four, he had like two years left. ⁓ same thing with Eric Carlson. You it's trying to find comparables. ⁓ when you're coming up with a number, you're always trying to find a comparable contract where, you know, what did this guy make? What percentage of the cap did he make? ⁓ I think ⁓ Alex Ovechkin was the closest because he was just coming off of that ridiculous what 14 year deal or whatever he had signed before the salary cap. ⁓ so he was around the same age. And if I remember, he was about eleven, a little bit over eleven point six percent of the cap when he signed the next deal, which was ⁓ he was thirty five, so yeah, you're a little bit older. ⁓ but that would equate to about thirteen point two million for for ⁓ Kutrov if he was to sign it next year. So I think we ended up putting in about 14.5 million for four years. seem just seems like the right, right, right number for him. It may be a little low now that I'm thinking about it, but it's it's just so hard because he was the MVP of the league. And you could have argue you could have made an argument that for the last three years that he was the MVP of the league. nobody's put up more like from his age 30 to the 32 seasons. Since two thousand seven, two thousand eight, nobody's put up more points in in that age frame, in that time gap. And it's not even close. I think Panarin was was the next closest. So it's hard to judge. Normally you say, ⁓ he's gonna be 33, 34 years old. Let's sign him to a five million a one year five million dollar deal, like you see with so many other veterans, you know, the the Jonathan Taves contract or the Patrick Kane contract before the, you know, what he signed for the other day. ⁓ but with Kutrov, you can't do that. I mean, this guy is the best player in the league. the you know, you could argue that you can argue McKinnon, you can argue argue McDavid, but you know the numbers show that nobody puts up more points than than Nikita Kucharov. And I don't see him slowing down anytime soon. It's not like he's gonna be an eighty point guy two years from now. I I think as long as the Lightning have who they have on the team, he's gonna stick around a hundred points. So what is that worth? I think if he goes to the free agent market and he's like I'm done with Tampa, I don't want to go back next summer he probably could sign for nineteen million dollars. And I don't think anybody would bat an eye. I still think that when it comes to Kucharoff, and you see this with guys who are later in their careers, they're looking for a total dollar value to their contract. And if it's spread out over four years versus five or six, it seems like a lot of these guys who really push the envelope, and not to say that Kucharov has done that, but they're looking for that total dollar value. If you're Tampa You know that in three to four years you're gonna have a guy who's thirty seven, thirty eight years old and even Sidney Crosby has slowed down. It happens to everybody. Are you better off giving him a shorter deal, but giving him more money to keep him happy as opposed to signing him for six or seven years? Yeah, I mean Like, I think if I broke the math down right, I think the four year 14 million dollars. if we spread it out over six years, it was like nine point five million. I was like, dude, if they could convince him to do that, you know, get a time machine and go back and have him sign it three weeks ago, you don't know how long he wants to play, right? Maybe he wants two more shots at the cup. And one of the interesting things about the four year deal is it lines them up with a lot of the contracts that the Lightning already have that are gonna be expiring around there, like the Brayden points and the Brayden Hagels. ⁓ and then if they sign Vasilewski to a three year deal next year, all those things are gonna line up and it would be a clean cutoff for the Lightning's, you know, cup contention window. Do they line it up that way? Does Breeswall want to do four years? Does he want to do six years? I would say if I were JBB, if he's willing to sign anything less than sixteen million, you take it and you run. Yeah, you take it and you figure it If he went if he went if he went to you and said twenty million. This is gonna be his last big contract. But if you went to you and said twenty million, he's the league MVP. And if that makes him the highest paid player in the league, he's probably worth it. Now, does it impact what happens the following year when you want to sign Andre Vasileschi to an extension? Of course it does. But I think you're gonna have to pick your poison and I think a goaltender is a lot easier to replace as good as Vasileschi's been. Replacing a goaltender would be a lot easier than replacing a guy who can put up 130 points. There are just not many guys ever who have played the game who can do that. Right. And Kutroff's smart enough to know that too. He's like, I can't hamstring I can't hamstring this team with my contract to where I'm not competing for a cup. I think more than anything, Kutrov wants that third cup. ⁓ the MVP stuff's nice. Having the biggest contract would be nice. But I think this man is built to do one thing, and that's to do his absolute best to win a Stanley Cup. And I think he knows that he can't do it by himself. He can't sign a contract to the point where it's going to hurt their ability to, you know, add things that they need. So the hometown discount, let's face it, the last contract he signed was a tremendous home hometown discount. You know, nine point five million for what he produced over the life of that contract. The Lightning owe him so much more based on that. they're so upside down on this deal. ⁓ that yeah, he could ask for twenty million dollars and he would be well within his rights. Justin, tell us what's going on over at Raw Charge. Yeah, so ⁓ we're back into the swing of things. You know, we had a couple days off there, but ⁓ back to following up what's going on in the league, keeping an eye on some of those summer hockey leagues that are going on, the three on threes, ⁓ the beauty league and all stuff like that. ⁓ starting August first, pay attention, mark it on your calendars ⁓ we are gonna start the voting or the ranking, I should say, for the top twenty under twenty-five, ⁓ our annual prospect breakdown. So keep an eye out for that. ⁓ starting to put together the lists of doing that. Unlike in past years where we've done 25 ⁓ prospects, we're only gonna do 20 this year. ⁓ basically with the lightning, once you get past the top 10, ⁓ a lot of similar prospects. So it kind of gets a bit repetitive once you get into that twenty to twenty-five range. ⁓ so this year we are gonna just do twenty. So look forward to that. ⁓ everybody will be able to vote. We'll be able to rank their prospects. ⁓ we usually give you a spot to explain your thoughts as well. So keep an eye out for that. We'll usually keep the voting open for about 10 days or so. So starting August 1st, keep an eye out for that. We'll be able to post that on social media. You can find Justin each and every day at www.rawcharge.com. I'm Jason Lincoln. Thanks for joining back checking the bolts today. Please hit that like and subscribe button. Find us on social media, give us a follow. Appreciate everyone's time and go bolts. Go bolts. Thank you for listening to Backchecking the Bolts. We are free and available on all platforms, including Apple, Spotify, iHeartRadio, Amazon, YouTube, and Deezer. If you enjoyed it, please be sure to subscribe and leave a review. You can follow Justin on Blue Sky at rawcharge.com. You can follow the show on X at Tampa underscore bolts underscore pod and on Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube at BackcheckingTheBolts. 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