Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Solana Melt-UP!🚀Rate Hike Chaos?🔥Technical Analysis with Tim Warren Trades 📉
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Has Solana set up an altcoin phase here that could
- 0:03Speaker 1: be running? Today we'll break it down for you because
- 0:05Speaker 1: there's going to be a lot happening around the Solana
- 0:08Speaker 1: network and also in general what's going on on the
- 0:11Speaker 1: macro side of things.
- 0:12Speaker 2: So Let's get started.
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- 1:05Speaker 1: just a few taps. I do want to lead off
- 1:09Speaker 1: with a clip here. And this, of course, is Kevin
- 1:11Speaker 1: Warsh over in Jackson Hole. And he's giving a little
- 1:15Speaker 1: bit of an angle here that might have surprised a
- 1:18Speaker 1: few people.
- 1:18Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 1:20Speaker 3: The Fed's price stability objective of 2%, as measured by
- 1:24Speaker 3: the PCE price index, is a firm, fixed, Let me
- 1:30Speaker 3: be equally clear about another aspect of this objective. Price
- 1:35Speaker 3: stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean reverting.
- 1:43Speaker 3: It's the Fed's job to deliver stable prices.
- 1:47Speaker 4: No excuses.
- 1:49Speaker 2: All right.
- 1:49Speaker 1: So that clip was enough to set the market in
- 1:53Speaker 1: a bit of a correction mode. Now we're seeing Bitcoin
- 1:57Speaker 1: trading below 78K. as we're recording right now. So I
- 2:01Speaker 1: wanted to bring in Tim Warren to kind of break
- 2:03Speaker 1: it down with me today.
- 2:04Speaker 2: Tim, how are you?
- 2:06Speaker 4: Doing good, Paul. Good to be back on the show.
- 2:08Speaker 4: How are you doing?
- 2:09Speaker 2: Excellent. Excellent.
- 2:10Speaker 1: Listen, if you guys aren't following Tim, jump over to
- 2:12Speaker 1: his YouTube channel, very easily find him, just his name,
- 2:15Speaker 1: Tim Warren trading. You guys can get, of course, uh,
- 2:19Speaker 1: a lot of insights here.
- 2:20Speaker 2: You've got some good videos here.
- 2:21Speaker 1: I think that we'll probably talk about today why you're
- 2:24Speaker 1: not buying yet. And, uh, How is this being manipulated?
- 2:28Speaker 1: So we'll answer all those questions for you guys. I
- 2:30Speaker 1: want to look at one thing here, Tim, and that
- 2:33Speaker 1: is this Fed decision for September, which completely reversed from
- 2:37Speaker 1: what we had was on a no change route, has
- 2:41Speaker 1: now started to intersect with a possible rate increase.
- 2:45Speaker 2: What do you think after.
- 2:46Speaker 1: You heard Kevin Walsh speak? Do you think a rate
- 2:49Speaker 1: increase is going to be in the cards?
- 2:51Speaker 4: Well, the PCE numbers the other day were not quite
- 2:53Speaker 4: what they should have been. But at the end of
- 2:55Speaker 4: the day, this is a metric that goes back and forth.
- 2:58Speaker 4: I saw someone comment on our post on X. They're like,
- 3:01Speaker 4: is this even reliable when someone just farts into the
- 3:03Speaker 4: wind and this whole thing changes? So there's a lot
- 3:06Speaker 4: of time between now and the end of the year
- 3:09Speaker 4: to get that to be finished. I still hold out, Paul.
- 3:13Speaker 4: I think this was a needed correction in the markets
- 3:15Speaker 4: because We could have a whole conversation about who's involved
- 3:18Speaker 4: in manipulation. Is Warsh a part of that? At the
- 3:21Speaker 4: end of the day, the markets were over, overbought, especially crypto.
- 3:24Speaker 4: And a correction was needed, but they did need some
- 3:27Speaker 4: sort of momentum booster. They needed something to cause it.
- 3:31Speaker 4: This is a great excuse. What Kevin Warsh did not
- 3:34Speaker 4: say in his meeting is that he's guaranteeing rate hikes.
- 3:37Speaker 4: He just said, well, we're not at 2%, and inflation
- 3:40Speaker 4: hasn't gotten better. But- I go back to what we
- 3:43Speaker 4: said in the first place. For a year and a half,
- 3:45Speaker 4: Donald Trump raged against the Fed saying that it was
- 3:48Speaker 4: time to cut, it was time to cut, it was
- 3:50Speaker 4: time to cut, and he was going to make sure
- 3:52Speaker 4: the next appointee was going to cut rates. Warsh was
- 3:55Speaker 4: his selection after months and months of deliberation. I would
- 3:59Speaker 4: be very surprised if Warsh gets in there and starts
- 4:01Speaker 4: raising rates right before midterms, which would be a death
- 4:05Speaker 4: movement for the MAGA movement Donald Trump wants. I still
- 4:09Speaker 4: think there's some misdirection, but it's okay. I think Warsh
- 4:13Speaker 4: and even Trump are okay with people today feeling that
- 4:16Speaker 4: there's more likely rate hikes coming, all the better to
- 4:19Speaker 4: then flip around and be bullish later on when there
- 4:21Speaker 4: are no rate hikes.
- 4:22Speaker 2: Well, that's the point.
- 4:23Speaker 1: I think this is one of those whipsaw moments that
- 4:26Speaker 1: could occur right before midterms if you look at this,
- 4:30Speaker 1: because obviously this being a September meeting for the FOMC.
- 4:34Speaker 1: Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, this is a reference to the
- 4:37Speaker 1: September rate hike. potentially holds odds plunged around 71, down 50%.
- 4:42Speaker 1: So that changes everything. But the rate cut odds remain
- 4:46Speaker 1: near zero at 1%. So rate cut probably not going
- 4:50Speaker 1: to be in the cards. Maybe a hold is the
- 4:54Speaker 1: position overall. With that alone, you had an interesting statement
- 4:58Speaker 1: right here. Polymark thinks FOMC is going to hike rates
- 5:02Speaker 1: in September, even though Besson is going to double down
- 5:05Speaker 1: basically do a double long-dated bond buyback. This is the
- 5:08Speaker 1: thing that Besson has been teasing and starting to step into.
- 5:15Speaker 1: The real question is, is how far will he go?
- 5:18Speaker 1: And your opinion, and if he does go far, listen,
- 5:20Speaker 1: that's going to force the hand of the Fed. It's
- 5:23Speaker 1: going to force the market in general, which could be
- 5:27Speaker 1: a very volatile month, to your point, very much. How
- 5:30Speaker 1: far down do you think Bitcoin goes from there, from where.
- 5:33Speaker 4: It's at right now? In the recent videos we've been doing,
- 5:36Speaker 4: that's actually what we were talking about. Like that recent
- 5:38Speaker 4: live show from yesterday, we talked about I wasn't buying yesterday.
- 5:42Speaker 4: I told people exactly where I'm buying. And there's kind
- 5:44Speaker 4: of some if-then statements of where I'm buying. If we
- 5:46Speaker 4: want to go to my screen, I can show you
- 5:48Speaker 4: guys what I've told our community that I'm looking for.
- 5:51Speaker 4: The first thing I'm looking for, and I will say
- 5:53Speaker 4: today we're getting a daily sell signal coming in on
- 5:56Speaker 4: my oscillator. So we could have a larger pullback. There's
- 5:59Speaker 4: two spots I'm looking for. Conservatively. I'm looking at this
- 6:03Speaker 4: four-hour chart, and I'm looking at some pretty good support
- 6:07Speaker 4: coming in down here between $ 74, 000 to $ 75, 000. You can
- 6:11Speaker 4: see today we're making some real momentum. We've got a
- 6:14Speaker 4: pretty big order block that suggests that level is significant.
- 6:17Speaker 4: An order block, if anyone doesn't know what that is,
- 6:20Speaker 4: It's a place on the markets that based on previous
- 6:22Speaker 4: buying and selling, this is a mark where bears will
- 6:25Speaker 4: probably look to take some light profits. Bulls will probably
- 6:29Speaker 4: look for their next big buy spot. So if we
- 6:31Speaker 4: can match, as we're pulling back now, look at the
- 6:33Speaker 4: RSI on the four-hour chart. We've crossed below the 50.
- 6:36Speaker 4: We're back into bearish control here. If we can get
- 6:40Speaker 4: an oversold RSI and then a four-hour buy signal from
- 6:44Speaker 4: my indicators, and we're hovering in this green box right
- 6:47Speaker 4: here around that order block, That's going to be my
- 6:49Speaker 4: next conservative level to look for some spot buying. If
- 6:53Speaker 4: the price of Bitcoin shoots through though, if this bad
- 6:55Speaker 4: news is enough to send us down, I would love
- 6:57Speaker 4: it because Bitcoin needs to do something that we did
- 7:00Speaker 4: in the last bull market that kind of confirmed the
- 7:03Speaker 4: bull market was back on. And that is revisit the
- 7:05Speaker 4: 200-day moving average. People, maybe they're forgetting today. If you're
- 7:09Speaker 4: bearish right now, did you forget that we just obliterated
- 7:12Speaker 4: the 200-day moving average, a sign that is confluent with
- 7:15Speaker 4: bull markets beginning, but a revisit back to that level,
- 7:18Speaker 4: closer towards that 69.3, 69.1 area. would be a very
- 7:23Speaker 4: good move for a bull market. Go back and take
- 7:25Speaker 4: a look at 2023 when we finally declared the bull
- 7:29Speaker 4: market was back. We did a couple of weeks later. Now,
- 7:32Speaker 4: it don't have to take weeks. It could be days.
- 7:34Speaker 4: We came back. We retested the 200, that purple line
- 7:36Speaker 4: right there. And then the bull market took off. So
- 7:39Speaker 4: for that reason, I'm looking conservatively. Give me strong four-hour
- 7:43Speaker 4: buy signals between 74 to 75. I'll buy there. If
- 7:47Speaker 4: we slash through and the four-hour buys don't come in,
- 7:50Speaker 4: then I am waiting for closer to 69, and I'm
- 7:52Speaker 4: looking for daily buy signals. Either way, I'm a happy
- 7:55Speaker 4: camper buying. I think that we're watching right now, Paul,
- 7:58Speaker 4: and I'm more than happy to get into it. I
- 7:59Speaker 4: think the last time I was on your show, I
- 8:01Speaker 4: was still kind of a, hey, I'm not so certain
- 8:03Speaker 4: the bottom's in just yet. There are now five things
- 8:06Speaker 4: I've watched Bitcoin do that make me believe the evidence
- 8:09Speaker 4: supporting the bottom is in is way greater than the
- 8:12Speaker 4: evidence saying that we still have lower to go.
- 8:13Speaker 2: All right.
- 8:15Speaker 1: Well, you look at that and I want to kind
- 8:17Speaker 1: of compare that to ETH here in a minute. But
- 8:18Speaker 1: before we do that, obviously, the big news right now
- 8:21Speaker 1: is Solana, the validator governance has been concluded. And this
- 8:25Speaker 1: simply means double disinflation is now, in fact, the case. This,
- 8:29Speaker 1: of course, is why Solana has absolutely seen an explosion
- 8:32Speaker 1: on the charts. And pretty much could be in a
- 8:35Speaker 1: potential where it's leading this rally or a rally that.
- 8:38Speaker 2: Could come out of this.
- 8:39Speaker 1: When you look at what Solana has been doing, both
- 8:42Speaker 1: on the ETF front, I mean, we're also looking at
- 8:45Speaker 1: institutional capital that's starting to push into this. You also
- 8:48Speaker 1: see this right here, which of course is where we
- 8:51Speaker 1: could see NASDAQ listing DeFi Development Corp. That's another one
- 8:55Speaker 1: they bought 19,000 in Seoul. So we're starting to see
- 8:58Speaker 1: some movement here on institutional capital in all of what
- 9:01Speaker 1: could be linking into becoming one of the top assets
- 9:05Speaker 1: in this bull run.
- 9:06Speaker 2: What do you say on Solana right now?
- 9:08Speaker 1: Would you say that we could see a retracement or
- 9:11Speaker 1: do you feel like this is just off and running?
- 9:14Speaker 4: I mean, everything needs to retrace at this point. The
- 9:17Speaker 4: Solana chart is just as overbought as Bitcoin. I wanted
- 9:20Speaker 4: to add one more thing to what you're saying, though, Paul.
- 9:22Speaker 4: Don't forget something that we don't even know for certain about,
- 9:24Speaker 4: but Solana is going to be the lead on. All
- 9:26Speaker 4: these banks announcing they're going to be building their own
- 9:28Speaker 4: stable coins. Well, they'll need someone to build it on.
- 9:31Speaker 4: The three I floated, one of them you're going to hate.
- 9:33Speaker 4: I know you don't like it. The three I floated
- 9:35Speaker 4: was obviously Ethereum, Solana, and Canton, right? I know you're
- 9:38Speaker 4: not a Canton guy.
- 9:39Speaker 2: Well, they're going to build on Canton.
- 9:42Speaker 4: I think some of them will. I think others will
- 9:46Speaker 4: choose others as well. So I think Solana, Ethereum, and
- 9:48Speaker 4: Canton are three to watch there. Solana being one of
- 9:50Speaker 4: them we're talking about right now. Let me show you
- 9:52Speaker 4: the chart on Solana. It's one of these things that
- 9:55Speaker 4: like the chart itself in terms of price action obviously
- 9:57Speaker 4: is different than Bitcoin. I love what Solana has done here.
- 10:01Speaker 4: In the last week, Solana not only broke through the
- 10:05Speaker 4: 200-day moving average, it broke through, you know, we obviously
- 10:08Speaker 4: retested the bear market trend line, broke the upside. And
- 10:11Speaker 4: we broke two other significant levels of resistance that I
- 10:14Speaker 4: thought was going to give Solana a little more trouble.
- 10:17Speaker 4: So you're absolutely right. The price has exploded, but in
- 10:21Speaker 4: the same way, you know, if you throw a basketball
- 10:23Speaker 4: really high in the air, eventually it has to come
- 10:25Speaker 4: back down. I'm not predicting lows. I think the bottoms
- 10:28Speaker 4: are in the bottom is in for Solana, but you
- 10:30Speaker 4: do have, look at this RSI right here, some pretty
- 10:33Speaker 4: overextended daily RSI, even the four hour chart, Unlike Bitcoin,
- 10:38Speaker 4: it's not even back down to the 50 line at
- 10:40Speaker 4: this point. You just were flooded here with bearish divergence.
- 10:44Speaker 4: We kept putting in higher highs, kept putting in lower
- 10:46Speaker 4: lows in the RSI. This is an overinflated market that
- 10:49Speaker 4: needs to pull back. The levels I'm looking at though, conservatively,
- 10:54Speaker 4: remember when I said Bitcoin conservatively 75, 74, I would
- 10:57Speaker 4: look back at $ 100 on Solana. If the four-hour chart
- 11:01Speaker 4: even gets back to the 50 and gives me a
- 11:03Speaker 4: goodbye signal, and again, I would probably look at Bitcoin
- 11:06Speaker 4: here as well as Confluence. Let's pretend Bitcoin gets that
- 11:09Speaker 4: 75 and gets a buy signal. Solana at $ 100 with
- 11:11Speaker 4: a four-hour buy signal. That's a juicy buying opportunity. Otherwise,
- 11:14Speaker 4: bigger drop. I'm looking out here at the daily chart.
- 11:17Speaker 4: I don't need all the way back to the 200,
- 11:19Speaker 4: but maybe give me a move back down towards 87,
- 11:22Speaker 4: 90 around this former level. It was support turned resistance.
- 11:27Speaker 4: It would make a lot of sense for us to
- 11:28Speaker 4: recapture that level. Bigger pullback, obviously, on Solana, but bigger
- 11:33Speaker 4: opportunity to buy the dip before the next big leg up.
- 11:37Speaker 1: Yeah, you look at Solana Byrne, this could literally jump
- 11:39Speaker 1: tenfold under this new plan, which that creates a lot
- 11:44Speaker 1: of scarcity, man. And you know, that's what institutions really love.
- 11:48Speaker 1: So be on the lookout for this one, guys. I
- 11:51Speaker 1: think it's interesting in the sense of where it could
- 11:53Speaker 1: be going from here. And is it the asset to
- 11:56Speaker 1: really keep an eye on for the next bull run?
- 11:59Speaker 1: Another one that, of course, we have to keep an
- 12:01Speaker 1: eye on is Chainlink. I actually want to go to
- 12:03Speaker 1: this tweet right here. Link and Sol moving on this
- 12:05Speaker 1: bullish news. You said something in the sense of Charles Schwab. Well,
- 12:10Speaker 1: we all know Charles Schwab listing all three of those, Solana, AVAX,
- 12:14Speaker 1: and Chainlink.
- 12:16Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 12:16Speaker 1: So, I mean, this is kind of expected. I expected this,
- 12:21Speaker 1: Charles Schwab. I mean, they've got to compete with Fidelity.
- 12:23Speaker 1: We're going to see more of the traditional exchanges out
- 12:27Speaker 1: there starting to move in this direction.
- 12:29Speaker 2: What do you think? Chainlink bottomed or not?
- 12:33Speaker 4: I think Chainlink's another coin. Very good evidence for bottom.
- 12:36Speaker 4: I did say on my show yesterday, I think it's interesting.
- 12:39Speaker 4: Charles Schwab, at this point, only had Bitcoin and Ethereum listed.
- 12:44Speaker 4: Solana made a lot of sense. If you're going to
- 12:47Speaker 4: think about listing the big cryptocurrencies, you've got to think Bitcoin, Ethereum.
- 12:50Speaker 4: And then, you know, XRP people will say XRP should
- 12:53Speaker 4: be that number three. Some of them say it should
- 12:54Speaker 4: be number one. But I think it makes sense for
- 12:56Speaker 4: Solana to be number three. What a little bit puzzles
- 12:59Speaker 4: me as a Chainlink person is Chainlink and AVAX coming
- 13:03Speaker 4: at four and five. I don't know about you, Paul,
- 13:06Speaker 4: but when I talk to TradFi people who know that
- 13:10Speaker 4: I'm in the crypto world, they'll start to ask my
- 13:11Speaker 4: opinions on crypto because they're interested. TradFi is absolutely interested
- 13:14Speaker 4: in crypto. But they'll ask me, what do you think
- 13:16Speaker 4: about Bitcoin? They'll ask me what I think about Ether.
- 13:19Speaker 4: They'll ask me what I think about XRP. And occasionally
- 13:22Speaker 4: I get a Dogecoin or something. I once said to somebody,
- 13:25Speaker 4: I said, oh, what about Chainlink? I really like Chainlink
- 13:28Speaker 4: as a pick. And he said, what's that?
- 13:29Speaker 2: Right.
- 13:29Speaker 4: A lot of TradFi people don't know what Chainlink is.
- 13:32Speaker 4: I can just about guarantee you most TradFi people don't
- 13:34Speaker 4: know what AVAX is.
- 13:35Speaker 3: Right.
- 13:36Speaker 4: Us crypto people obviously have heard of them. and know
- 13:38Speaker 4: what's going on, but TradFi doesn't. So for Charles Schwab
- 13:42Speaker 4: to say, we want to go Solana, that makes a
- 13:44Speaker 4: lot of sense. But then Link and AVAX, those are
- 13:47Speaker 4: kind of deep picks, which makes me very bullish on
- 13:49Speaker 4: both those projects that Charles Schwab thinks that they have
- 13:53Speaker 4: clients interested in purchasing those assets. So- That's my first
- 13:56Speaker 4: thought on Link. If you go to my chart here,
- 13:59Speaker 4: Link has had a fantastic run up here recently. Did
- 14:02Speaker 4: hit a level of resistance that we had marked on
- 14:04Speaker 4: our charts up here around. We had a box between
- 14:07Speaker 4: 1170 up towards 1255. You can see we kind of
- 14:09Speaker 4: hit it just perfectly. Take a look at the history
- 14:12Speaker 4: of this price action dating even all the way back
- 14:15Speaker 4: to the bull market of 2020. This zone has had
- 14:19Speaker 4: historically a lot of support and resistance touches in it.
- 14:23Speaker 4: You can just kind of scroll as you scroll through it.
- 14:25Speaker 4: The amount of times we bounce or reject on this
- 14:27Speaker 4: box is pretty crazy. Coincidentally, we've run into it once again.
- 14:31Speaker 4: And just like Bitcoin and Solana, take a look at
- 14:34Speaker 4: the RSIs. Take a look at the sell signals coming
- 14:36Speaker 4: in here. We were just really, really overinflated. Chainlink's 4-hour
- 14:40Speaker 4: looks a lot more like Bitcoin. This is one, I
- 14:44Speaker 4: want to pull this back up. I don't remember the
- 14:45Speaker 4: exact numbers I gave. I want to say I said 10%.
- 14:48Speaker 4: 50 or 1070. Oh no, sorry, here, big order block.
- 14:52Speaker 4: I apologize. 1050 is the top. Bottom of this is
- 14:55Speaker 4: around 1011. That's my four hour conservative zone. I would
- 14:59Speaker 4: like to see an oversold RSI buy signal back in
- 15:02Speaker 4: that zone. If that one does not hold, my next
- 15:05Speaker 4: mark is gonna be on the daily chart. Huge order
- 15:08Speaker 4: block down here around 916, around that daily Gaussian band.
- 15:12Speaker 4: I'm not convinced we get all the way down there,
- 15:13Speaker 4: but that is the next big, big order block. So
- 15:16Speaker 4: do you see a flash crash on link in a
- 15:18Speaker 4: bear trend? I would be scooping up a lot of
- 15:20Speaker 4: LINK around that 915 mark.
- 15:23Speaker 2: Hey, Tim.
- 15:23Speaker 1: Okay, so let's take a look at the three you
- 15:26Speaker 1: just met. Well, let's go back and look at Solana.
- 15:29Speaker 1: I want to look at a end-of-year price prediction for
- 15:32Speaker 1: both Solana and Chainlink. Because if Charles Schwab now is
- 15:38Speaker 1: moving on this, my anticipation is you're going to see
- 15:41Speaker 1: others starting to move in this direction as well, which
- 15:44Speaker 1: is going to put a lot of pressure on the markets.
- 15:46Speaker 1: for these assets, possibly expose them to people, retail, that
- 15:50Speaker 1: have never seen them before.
- 15:51Speaker 2: Where do you put Solana end of year?
- 15:56Speaker 4: It's a hard equation, Paul, especially in light of the
- 15:59Speaker 4: news that we're discussing here, this disinflation. I mean, you
- 16:02Speaker 4: start to mess with the supply and a lot of
- 16:05Speaker 4: things are possible. So while I'm not going to be
- 16:08Speaker 4: able to give an exact price prediction of where we're
- 16:11Speaker 4: guaranteeing to go, I do think there's some levels above
- 16:13Speaker 4: us to keep an eye on as Solana continues this
- 16:16Speaker 4: bull trend. And again, these order blocks are going to
- 16:19Speaker 4: give us some big pictures here. In this case, what
- 16:21Speaker 4: I want to look at is order blocks that have
- 16:22Speaker 4: more than 20%. Here's a 10% one, a 4% one,
- 16:26Speaker 4: a 13% one. There's clearly some people who will take
- 16:29Speaker 4: profit at those levels, but I'm more interested around 158
- 16:32Speaker 4: and then up here at 180. Those are going to
- 16:35Speaker 4: be the two big hurdles, in my opinion, that are
- 16:38Speaker 4: stopping Solana from getting back to new all-time highs once
- 16:41Speaker 4: those are recaptured. Again, 160 area and then 180. Once
- 16:47Speaker 4: we break above those, yes, you have the highs from
- 16:49Speaker 4: back in September of 25 up here at 250. Yeah,
- 16:51Speaker 4: you had the all-time highs away up here around 292.
- 16:55Speaker 4: I can't remember what the exact level is there. But
- 16:59Speaker 4: what I'm seeing is there's actually a lot more selling
- 17:01Speaker 4: pressure at these lower levels. Once we clear them, we
- 17:04Speaker 4: could make a really fast run to the upside. And
- 17:07Speaker 4: if I'm right about the markets and how they're moving
- 17:11Speaker 4: and all the bullish declarations we've made here recently, the
- 17:14Speaker 4: bull market is on. It's really hard to decipher where
- 17:19Speaker 4: we'll be in December of 26, because I think there
- 17:23Speaker 4: will be a continuous run throughout December into January. We
- 17:27Speaker 4: could be at new all-time highs. That's not out of
- 17:29Speaker 4: the realm of probability. But I would be more conservative
- 17:33Speaker 4: saying- let's, let's for right now, just watch that one
- 17:36Speaker 4: 60 to one 80 zone. Let's see what happens when
- 17:38Speaker 4: we get there. Let's see when we get there. And
- 17:40Speaker 4: then after those are hit and broken through, now let's
- 17:43Speaker 4: turn our eyes towards new all-time highs, probably in 2027,
- 17:47Speaker 4: if I had to guess, but I don't think you
- 17:49Speaker 4: have to wait until like the fall of 27, we
- 17:51Speaker 4: could get there maybe before summertime.
- 17:53Speaker 1: So you feel like it might be a short bull run?
- 17:56Speaker 2: Is that what you're getting at?
- 17:57Speaker 4: No, no, no, not a short bull run. We are
- 17:58Speaker 4: talking about just the probability of getting up there.
- 18:00Speaker 2: Of getting to the high.
- 18:02Speaker 4: The whole bull run, again, even four-year cyclists that I
- 18:06Speaker 4: know who haven't yet given up on the four-year cycle
- 18:10Speaker 4: agree that this next bull market will break the four-year
- 18:13Speaker 4: cycle and we will have an extended bull run. So
- 18:15Speaker 4: even people who are sitting here saying, man, I'm not
- 18:17Speaker 4: even thinking about the top until 29% there's a decent
- 18:20Speaker 4: chance with institutions coming in, we move into a new
- 18:24Speaker 4: phase where instead of having these three years of positive
- 18:26Speaker 4: price action followed by one year of pretty bad bear market,
- 18:29Speaker 4: you might see a year or two of explosive movements
- 18:32Speaker 4: followed by like six months of downward movements followed by
- 18:35Speaker 4: three years of explosive movements followed by, I don't think
- 18:37Speaker 4: a four-year cycle is going to become more topsy-turvy. Watch
- 18:42Speaker 4: the market, watch the economy, but extended cycle or shortened
- 18:47Speaker 4: but ecstatic cycles I think is going to be the
- 18:50Speaker 4: new norm.
- 18:51Speaker 1: I'm going to play a couple of clips here from
- 18:52Speaker 1: Tom Lee, and then I want to get in. And
- 18:56Speaker 1: I think I know where you're going with where is
- 18:58Speaker 1: that buy moment? Because this is a question people are asking.
- 19:02Speaker 1: Is it an all-in moment? Is it a DCA opportunity?
- 19:06Speaker 2: These kind of things.
- 19:07Speaker 1: Let's go to this first clip. This is whether or
- 19:09Speaker 1: not you're exposed to crypto right now.
- 19:11Speaker 2: Take a look.
- 19:13Speaker 5: If you look at the past crypto cycles, and you could...
- 19:19Speaker 5: buy the crypto either four weeks or one week after
- 19:24Speaker 5: the low, would you do that every day? And the
- 19:28Speaker 5: answer is everyone should obviously be buying four weeks before
- 19:31Speaker 5: the low or one week after the low. So if
- 19:33Speaker 5: the low was last week, then you're buying one week
- 19:36Speaker 5: after the low. If there is a retrace, which is possible,
- 19:40Speaker 5: then you're buying four weeks before the low. I mean,
- 19:43Speaker 5: in either case, I think you should be thanking yourselves
- 19:48Speaker 5: for actually taking that tech decision. I think if anyone's
- 19:51Speaker 5: trying to time the bottom and do what I call
- 19:55Speaker 5: by the middle leg of the rally, they're going to
- 19:57Speaker 5: miss the majority of the gains because we've published the
- 20:00Speaker 5: staff and it's actually worked for more than a decade
- 20:02Speaker 5: that crypto makes all of its moves in 10 days.
- 20:05Speaker 5: And if you miss the 10 best days, you actually
- 20:08Speaker 5: have negative returns. So How many great days have happened
- 20:12Speaker 5: in 2026?
- 20:14Speaker 2: Like one.
- 20:14Speaker 5: A lot of upside for crypto between now and your end.
- 20:19Speaker 1: All right. A lot of upside between now and your end.
- 20:21Speaker 1: He's pointing at these critical times in which if you're
- 20:25Speaker 1: not exposed and you wait too long, Tim, you could
- 20:29Speaker 1: miss some of these major gains and you're having to
- 20:32Speaker 1: buy in at a higher level or, you know, you're
- 20:35Speaker 1: in a position where you're in an asset and you
- 20:37Speaker 1: haven't necessarily seen that, you know, those other nine days
- 20:41Speaker 1: that he's.
- 20:42Speaker 2: Referencing right there.
- 20:44Speaker 1: So before we go to the ETH versus Bitcoin, when
- 20:47Speaker 1: you look at Ethereum right now on the chart, how
- 20:51Speaker 1: do you play Ethereum today?
- 20:54Speaker 4: Everything he said in his clip was really good, except
- 20:56Speaker 4: for the fact of you don't really know the bottom
- 20:59Speaker 4: is in until the bottom is definitely in and you're
- 21:01Speaker 4: past it. Otherwise, that's the reason why you should just
- 21:04Speaker 4: be keeping DCing all the time. I tell people that
- 21:08Speaker 4: people see videos like yesterday, When I said, oh, I'm
- 21:11Speaker 4: not buying until and someone's like, Tim, I thought you
- 21:13Speaker 4: were buying before. I'm like, listen, I'm not buying next until.
- 21:17Speaker 4: I bought dips on Bitcoin at 85K. I bought dips
- 21:20Speaker 4: at 60K, then 58, then 57. I buy dips. What
- 21:24Speaker 4: I'm saying is I'm waiting for the next dip to
- 21:27Speaker 4: add in. As far as the all in versus the
- 21:29Speaker 4: DCA strategy. Paul, you've been doing this longer than I have,
- 21:33Speaker 4: so you know this better than me, but it's a
- 21:36Speaker 4: dangerous game to try to go with all-in strategies because
- 21:39Speaker 4: rarely do people actually nail it. DCA and going in
- 21:45Speaker 4: both on the way down and on the way up
- 21:47Speaker 4: is the best strategy. And then once you see the
- 21:49Speaker 4: confirmation of, yes, I've seen what I need to see
- 21:52Speaker 4: to confirm the bottom is in, now you start to
- 21:54Speaker 4: have conversations about, on the next dip, I'll probably go
- 21:56Speaker 4: even heavier in my DCA. I'm not a fan of
- 22:00Speaker 4: the all-in strategies.
- 22:02Speaker 1: I think the only time that you're dealing with an
- 22:05Speaker 1: all-in strategy is when you have so much conviction on
- 22:08Speaker 1: this category, this asset class, that you are looking at
- 22:12Speaker 1: a multi-year, potentially five-year hold.
- 22:15Speaker 2: It doesn't matter where.
- 22:17Speaker 1: You're going to be in at the next high, and
- 22:19Speaker 1: an all-in strategy puts you ahead of the game. The
- 22:22Speaker 1: key here is being able to hold those assets in
- 22:24Speaker 1: really critical times, including these major pullbacks. If you think
- 22:28Speaker 1: about the guys who bought in on Bitcoin, above 100
- 22:32Speaker 1: in its last run, they're all reeling. But now they're
- 22:37Speaker 1: also looking if they're still holding that position, they have
- 22:40Speaker 1: a chance to be able to see Bitcoin in its
- 22:42Speaker 1: next tier, which could.
- 22:44Speaker 2: Be right now.
- 22:45Speaker 1: I mean, we had several analysts now pointing to 150
- 22:49Speaker 1: by year end.
- 22:50Speaker 2: So I don't know. This is a very interesting time.
- 22:53Speaker 4: I would love to see Bitcoin at 150 by year
- 22:55Speaker 4: end again. Another thing I think is easier to say
- 22:58Speaker 4: than it is to do.
- 22:59Speaker 2: But yeah, crazy number.
- 23:01Speaker 4: As far as Ethereum, again, I'm going to sound a
- 23:04Speaker 4: little bit like a broken record, but that's because the
- 23:06Speaker 4: crypto markets have moved pretty unanimously, pretty much in sync.
- 23:11Speaker 4: Same thing here. Key resistance level we've been watching for
- 23:14Speaker 4: quite some time on Ethereum was hit. What I love
- 23:17Speaker 4: about this, though, and one thing that Bitcoin has not done,
- 23:21Speaker 4: that is going to be the nail in the coffin
- 23:23Speaker 4: for me, the bottom is in, is create a higher low.
- 23:26Speaker 4: Ethereum broke the bear market trend, broke the 200-day moving average,
- 23:29Speaker 4: has the divergences you need. But here's what I love
- 23:32Speaker 4: about what Ethereum just did over the last week, is
- 23:35Speaker 4: it broke above the highs from back in April, setting
- 23:38Speaker 4: the first higher high in Ethereum's movement since the bear
- 23:42Speaker 4: market started way back over here in October of 2005.
- 23:45Speaker 4: So major move for Ethereum. Great news. But we're overbought, right?
- 23:50Speaker 4: We're getting the sell signals finally on the daily chart.
- 23:53Speaker 4: The four-hour is finally starting to correct. Very similar to Bitcoin.
- 23:56Speaker 4: We have crossed below that 50 line. So what am
- 23:58Speaker 4: I looking for? I'm looking for the next overextended four-hour
- 24:03Speaker 4: buy signal. If I'm going to take a guess... a
- 24:06Speaker 4: gander as to where that's going to be. You got
- 24:08Speaker 4: to start here with a line that we thought would
- 24:10Speaker 4: be resistance turned, and now we can turn into support
- 24:13Speaker 4: around this $ 2, 255 level. There's no big order block in
- 24:18Speaker 4: this camp, but this was a zone that we identified.
- 24:20Speaker 4: I think we actually just got rid of it. There
- 24:22Speaker 4: was an order block, but here, this was a level
- 24:24Speaker 4: we identified. as a potential resistance level for ethereum during
- 24:28Speaker 4: the rally we smashed through it which means now the
- 24:32Speaker 4: same people that wanted to take profit back here see
- 24:35Speaker 4: this as the opportunity to get back in so i'd
- 24:37Speaker 4: be watching 2250 area for a four hour buy if
- 24:41Speaker 4: we go lower than that i think ethereum similar to
- 24:44Speaker 4: bitcoin you probably are looking at oh look at that
- 24:47Speaker 4: actually we have a daily order block in that camp
- 24:49Speaker 4: so i was wrong it's a breaker block which means
- 24:51Speaker 4: it was an order block i think you're looking back
- 24:53Speaker 4: Between $ 2, 100 to $ 2, 000 back towards that 200-day moving average
- 24:58Speaker 4: slash daily Gaussian band for your bigger pullback. If we
- 25:02Speaker 4: slash through this level, then you're looking for an oversold
- 25:04Speaker 4: daily buy signal. I don't want to waste, I know
- 25:08Speaker 4: we've talked a lot about charts. I don't want to
- 25:09Speaker 4: waste too much time, but go back and look. I
- 25:11Speaker 4: would tell everyone who looks at charts, go back and
- 25:13Speaker 4: look at the previous bull market, what oscillators looked like. Yes,
- 25:18Speaker 4: you identify a bull market, you take off, but almost
- 25:22Speaker 4: every single bull market, people have FOMOed in at these
- 25:25Speaker 4: overbought levels, thinking I have to get in right now
- 25:27Speaker 4: or it's going to be too late. And almost every
- 25:29Speaker 4: single time you had a healthy correction with an oversold
- 25:32Speaker 4: daily chart that actually ended up being The best guaranteed
- 25:36Speaker 4: spot to buy in. So that's one of the things
- 25:38Speaker 4: I'm looking for. I want to see that daily chart
- 25:40Speaker 4: back below 30 and then get a daily buy signal.
- 25:43Speaker 4: And that's getting my cue. I'm not all in. I'm
- 25:45Speaker 4: not an all-in guy. But that's probably a heftier DCA
- 25:48Speaker 4: than normal.
- 25:49Speaker 1: I want to take a look at Hyperliquid. And of course,
- 25:52Speaker 1: hype has continued to outperform the market. The question is,
- 25:56Speaker 1: it is now printing all-time highs. But the real question is,
- 26:00Speaker 1: where does it stop right now? If Hyperliquid gets... standardized
- 26:05Speaker 1: in the US. I have no idea what this token
- 26:07Speaker 1: will do. Where do you guys stand.
- 26:10Speaker 2: On this one?
- 26:12Speaker 4: Yeah, we like hype. Our team likes hype a lot.
- 26:15Speaker 4: It's a very overbought chart right now. So again, am
- 26:18Speaker 4: I buying hype today? No, I'm not. But I've been
- 26:21Speaker 4: buying hype on dips. I was able to buy in
- 26:23Speaker 4: this range back around $ 50. I was a late hype person.
- 26:28Speaker 4: I probably first got into it closer to $ 40 back
- 26:31Speaker 4: here in May. So I'm not going to pretend to
- 26:33Speaker 4: be the foremost hype expert. I wasn't buying it back
- 26:36Speaker 4: in January 26. Definitely was not buying it. Probably didn't
- 26:39Speaker 4: even really know much about it in 25. I think
- 26:41Speaker 4: I'd heard of it, but I didn't research that much
- 26:43Speaker 4: about it. So I'm not going to profess to be
- 26:45Speaker 4: the foremost expert. What I'm going to look at on
- 26:48Speaker 4: the charts, though, is I'm going to look at the
- 26:49Speaker 4: overbought bearish divergences coming in here. And a correction is needed.
- 26:54Speaker 4: A correction is needed for hype. So I will look
- 26:57Speaker 4: for oversold signals to buy. And something I'd be watching,
- 27:00Speaker 4: there's a nice little order block coming in down here
- 27:03Speaker 4: that'll be right in line with the Gaussian band. That's
- 27:05Speaker 4: a 29% order block in the world of $ 70. Could
- 27:08Speaker 4: be as low as 67, but that'd be my area
- 27:11Speaker 4: to watch for hype. Give me a small correction down
- 27:14Speaker 4: here back towards 70 and then give me a buy signal,
- 27:17Speaker 4: an oversold signal, a daily chart. Give me a buy
- 27:18Speaker 4: signal and I'll feel a lot better about buying it.
- 27:21Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. OK, you mentioned AVAX earlier.
- 27:24Speaker 1: We see Charles Schwab adding that to their stack in
- 27:27Speaker 1: terms of assets that will be able. This is one
- 27:29Speaker 1: of those assets that we have not been really following
- 27:32Speaker 1: here a lot recently, mainly because when you go look
- 27:37Speaker 1: at the major chart, this is one that.
- 27:39Speaker 2: Has really struggled.
- 27:41Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 27:42Speaker 1: Only here recently have we seen a little bit of
- 27:44Speaker 1: life in the chain in terms of price action.
- 27:48Speaker 2: Where do you stand on Avalanche right now?
- 27:51Speaker 4: Yeah, I hold AVAX. It's been a disappointing hold. I've
- 27:54Speaker 4: had some others that obviously do way better. We've talked
- 27:56Speaker 4: about them on the show. AVAX here the other day
- 27:59Speaker 4: just ran into the 200-day moving average. So while everything
- 28:01Speaker 4: else is obliterating it, AVAX is still below. But like
- 28:04Speaker 4: I said... Charles Schwab, if they had listed like 50
- 28:09Speaker 4: coins and AVAX was one of them, I might say, okay,
- 28:12Speaker 4: they just threw in some big coins. They only listed
- 28:15Speaker 4: three and their total now is at five and AVAX
- 28:17Speaker 4: made their top five. And Charles Schwab, while this announcement
- 28:21Speaker 4: isn't Charles Schwab announcing they're buying X million dollars worth
- 28:25Speaker 4: of it, it is them saying, we believe our clients
- 28:29Speaker 4: want to purchase this asset. So they perceive demand here,
- 28:33Speaker 4: which makes me think, man, The bearish case for AVAX
- 28:37Speaker 4: is it hasn't done anything. The bullish case for AVAX
- 28:40Speaker 4: is it hasn't done anything yet. So opportunity is afoot.
- 28:46Speaker 4: But like the others, it's going to have a pullback.
- 28:48Speaker 4: AVAX is one I wouldn't– I'm not comfortable sitting here
- 28:50Speaker 4: telling you I think that the bottom for sure is in.
- 28:52Speaker 4: I think there's a chance. But I think a move
- 28:54Speaker 4: back down on AVAX, coming back down, there's a Gaussian
- 28:59Speaker 4: band in a small order block at 663. It would
- 29:01Speaker 4: be an interesting spot. If we lose that, I do
- 29:03Speaker 4: think we could go lower towards 550. But let's think
- 29:09Speaker 4: positively right now. Let's just start off with this conservative level.
- 29:12Speaker 4: Let's look at what AVAX is doing back around 660
- 29:14Speaker 4: would be a place to start.
- 29:16Speaker 1: All right, Tim, I'm building a portfolio of altcoins. I'm
- 29:20Speaker 1: not putting Bitcoin in this one.
- 29:22Speaker 4: Okay.
- 29:22Speaker 1: I got a bag over here that we're going to
- 29:24Speaker 1: do Bitcoin in. Let's pick four assets that we want
- 29:29Speaker 1: to start with into that portfolio.
- 29:32Speaker 2: And I'm going to put them in there today.
- 29:34Speaker 4: When Bitcoin hits its buy spot, what am I buying?
- 29:37Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
- 29:38Speaker 2: So let's trigger.
- 29:39Speaker 1: give me the trigger point on Bitcoin and what those
- 29:42Speaker 1: four assets would be.
- 29:44Speaker 4: Yeah, so Bitcoin gets down and gives me my next
- 29:47Speaker 4: daily buy signal in an overextended mark. Love it. What
- 29:51Speaker 4: am I buying in the altcoin space? Number one, I'm
- 29:54Speaker 4: going to sound like a crazy person. People have connected
- 29:57Speaker 4: me to this coin. It's not my favorite because I
- 30:00Speaker 4: just personally love the coin. It's my favorite because I
- 30:03Speaker 4: genuinely believe in what they're doing. It's Chainlink. And my
- 30:06Speaker 4: belief system, it goes like this. Who's going to win
- 30:09Speaker 4: between Solana and Ethereum? Who's going to win between XRP
- 30:13Speaker 4: and XLM recently? It's been doing some cool things. Who's
- 30:15Speaker 4: going to win between Ondo and HBAR and all the
- 30:18Speaker 4: other real world assets? Who's going to win between this
- 30:20Speaker 4: company and that company? Guess who wins no matter what
- 30:23Speaker 4: the answers to any of those questions are? It's Chainlink.
- 30:27Speaker 4: No one's competing with Chainlink. I know they're technically our competitors,
- 30:29Speaker 4: but no one's legitimately competing with them. They're involved in
- 30:33Speaker 4: literally every single business and every single asset class. Real
- 30:36Speaker 4: assets are going to be the biggest narrative in this
- 30:40Speaker 4: next bull market. And you need that strong Oracle and
- 30:43Speaker 4: Chainlink to get it done. I was listening to a
- 30:45Speaker 4: report yesterday that less than 1% of world assets are
- 30:49Speaker 4: actually tokenized right now. So if you think we've even
- 30:51Speaker 4: begun to scratch the surface.
- 30:53Speaker 2: Of tokenization, you're off.
- 30:56Speaker 4: Chainlink has to be number one.
- 30:57Speaker 2: It has to be number one. We got it. All right.
- 31:01Speaker 1: Chainlink is in the asset trading at 1147 today.
- 31:06Speaker 4: Yeah. Let's go with my second pick, lower ROI. But
- 31:11Speaker 4: a level of still interesting ROI and security, in my belief,
- 31:16Speaker 4: is Solana. You have retail loves Solana. The institutions love Solana.
- 31:22Speaker 4: Meme coins love Solana. Real world assets love Solana. Stable
- 31:26Speaker 4: coins love Solana. So while it does have legitimate competitors,
- 31:30Speaker 4: obviously Ethereum is a bigger one. You still have SUI
- 31:32Speaker 4: coming in behind. AVAX can compete with it. Solana is
- 31:35Speaker 4: in a special place that I think there's Very little
- 31:39Speaker 4: probability that Solana comes into any type of roadblock in
- 31:42Speaker 4: this bull market. So that's going to be of the
- 31:45Speaker 4: four I'm going to give you my, well, Chainlink probably
- 31:48Speaker 4: is the safest, just like I said, but big cap
- 31:51Speaker 4: coin Solana, but there's still enough ROI in it. There's
- 31:54Speaker 4: enough juice to squeeze. You can still make some good
- 31:57Speaker 4: money on it.
- 31:57Speaker 3: All right.
- 31:58Speaker 2: I like it. So that's, that's number two.
- 32:01Speaker 5: Yes.
- 32:02Speaker 4: Three. Number three. This is going to be a weird
- 32:05Speaker 4: pick because I'm going to say this coin or give
- 32:08Speaker 4: me a coin that's going to outperform it or showing
- 32:11Speaker 4: it's going to outperform it. Give me Ondo. For the
- 32:13Speaker 4: reason I was just talking about with Chainlink and Solana,
- 32:16Speaker 4: real assets are going to explode. Ondo at the moment is,
- 32:21Speaker 4: of what it does, does more than 60% of its
- 32:24Speaker 4: job compared to its competitors. So I like Ondo as
- 32:28Speaker 4: the number one coin to build your real world assets
- 32:30Speaker 4: on until a different competitor tops it. And then you
- 32:33Speaker 4: know what I'm going to do? I'm going to move
- 32:35Speaker 4: my Ondo bag into that one. So my coin pick
- 32:37Speaker 4: here is actually, show me the number one real world
- 32:40Speaker 4: asset token I want to invest in it. Today, that's
- 32:44Speaker 4: Ondo Finance. Tomorrow, is it something else? I'll switch.
- 32:49Speaker 2: I like it. Last position.
- 32:52Speaker 4: Yeah, number four. Number four. It would come down between
- 32:55Speaker 4: two tokens. Let me say the honorable mention, what I'm
- 32:57Speaker 4: not going to go with. I like XRP a lot.
- 33:01Speaker 4: It's another safer play, but I still think the banks
- 33:03Speaker 4: are going to utilize it. I think XRP has a
- 33:05Speaker 4: bright future. But I'm going to go with the only
- 33:09Speaker 4: sector that I have not talked about yet. Chainlink, Solana,
- 33:13Speaker 4: and Ondo are in the real world asset sector. Solana
- 33:16Speaker 4: covers stable coin usage. What about the AI world? I
- 33:22Speaker 4: got to have an AI token. I know the stock
- 33:25Speaker 4: market's a little bit in a bubble, but I think
- 33:27Speaker 4: there's a long road to the upside for crypto AI coins.
- 33:31Speaker 4: So give me BitTensor TAL as my fourth pick to
- 33:35Speaker 4: make sure I have proper exposure to AI.
- 33:38Speaker 2: There you go. All right.
- 33:39Speaker 1: So we'll take a look at TAL right now, trading
- 33:41Speaker 1: at 237, holding in on a retracement here. Where would
- 33:45Speaker 1: be a buy point? Well, we're going to trigger this
- 33:47Speaker 1: on Bitcoin, on Bitcoin's price. So everything on these four
- 33:52Speaker 1: are triggered on Bitcoin's price. Give me a price target
- 33:56Speaker 1: where that would most likely occur, and you would say,
- 34:00Speaker 1: all right, I'm deploying capital into these four.
- 34:04Speaker 4: For Bitcoin's price, conservatively, give me the buy signals on
- 34:07Speaker 4: the four-hour chart, and I'd take a stab around $ 74, 000, $ 75, 000.
- 34:10Speaker 4: So that's my conservative just lowest. But if I get
- 34:15Speaker 4: that daily overbought candle, we're looking– I'm going to say
- 34:19Speaker 4: 70K because that 200-day moving average could keep climbing up,
- 34:21Speaker 4: but somewhere between 69 to 70K would be my ideal.
- 34:24Speaker 1: So there's good range, I think, for those of you
- 34:27Speaker 1: out there. And you could always dollar cost add if
- 34:29Speaker 1: you started at 74K and dollar cost average down to 70.
- 34:32Speaker 2: That'd be fine. Might be a good way to build
- 34:34Speaker 2: that portfolio.
- 34:36Speaker 1: We'll do an exercise on this and come back and
- 34:38Speaker 1: look at it in a few months and see how
- 34:40Speaker 1: it performs. But anyway, hey, Tim, it's been good having
- 34:43Speaker 1: you on the show today. Thanks so much for coming in.
- 34:45Speaker 1: We appreciate it.
- 34:47Speaker 4: Absolutely. Thanks for having me, Paul.