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Gold’s Bull Market Is Intact, But the Next High May Take Time | Florian Grummes · Kitco MINING

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Kitco Mining on-site coverage of the Precious Metal Summit is presented by Newcore Gold.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Hello and welcome back to Kitco Mining with me, Paul Harris, here at the 2026 Precious Metal Summit in Beaver Creek, Colorado.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking about gold, the big picture for gold, and I have a great pleasure to be joined now by this morning's keynote speaker, Florian Grummis from Midas Consulting.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: Florian, welcome back to Kitcote.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, thanks for having me.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Always a pleasure.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: It was a pleasure watching your keynote this morning, Florian.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: You covered so many interesting data points.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: You presented your case in such an interesting way to take the audience along with you.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: I want to sort of touch on some of the things that really stood out for me, if I may.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: You say you said we're still in a you you still think we're in a secular bull market in the gold sector, but you're more cautious on pricing.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: So you're giving a still giving a positive message message, but perhaps not quite as positive as people were expecting to hear.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, probably.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um on gold conferences, of course, people only want to hear that the gold price will go higher.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: Um, but uh my case was basically we are in a secular bull market, we've seen an important new all-time high end of January.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Since then, a big pullback, and with uh prices around 4,360-ish as we speak, we're still far away from the all-time high now.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: And this will simply take time.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that was at least my key message.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh be patient, trust this is a secular bull market, but it will take time.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_02: This can easily take us into mid-end of next year before we see a new all-time high easily.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: And you weren't just saying that, you were illustrating that with the use of charts and technical analysis showing how the the amount of time it takes for the positive energy to sort of build and break out to new time highs and when things uh correct, how long the corrections tend to last.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, exactly.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_02: So I basically had this chart showing the the first leg of this bull market between 2001 and 2011, which in hindsight was a spectacular gain from$250 up to 1920.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: It took 10 years, and in between there were three larger corrections, consolidations where which each took uh more than one and a half years.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_02: And I think something similar is where we are right now.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a lot of people have spoken about and the people like the World Gulf Council are tracking central bank gold purchases, and it's been clear that uh looking at the charts over the past few years, there's been a shift of momentum towards uh Asia um buying, being the big buyers of gold.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: You mentioned, which perhaps may have been surprised to some, you mentioned that you anticipate Western central banks starting to come into the market.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um, how do you see that happening?
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: What's going to be the trigger for them to start joining the party and buying gold again?
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean, we've seen Poland, for example, already being active as a central bank, uh, ramping up their gold reserves.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_02: But I think uh the more this whole unstable US situation continues, the more the dollar loses purchasing power, the more governments, also in the Western world, realize that they need to have some uh diversified asset and they cannot only bet on the fiat currencies dollar and euro.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, I think you will see that.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, and and I mean recently we heard uh the the Netherlands repatriating their gold.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I think it's uh small mosaic pieces here and there, but I think they will become more and more down the road, uh simply because uh we are in such an unstable, uncertain world now, and it is clear that um the governments in America as well as in the European Union have to print more of your money to run or continue to run the financial systems or even the societies in which those countries live.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_02: So uh I think it's yeah, it's a logical step.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_02: And also, by the way, I mean, to compete or still be able to maybe do more trading in the future with the with the agents, especially with the Chinese who are now uh sitting on a huge amount of gold that will continue.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_02: I think that uh uh will force many Western countries sooner or later to also start buying gold again.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: In North America, I think it'd be fair to say that people are very fixated on what the US dollar is or is not doing, what the US Federal Reserve is or is not doing, and its impact on the gold price.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: But you had a you started your presentation showing that uh on any given day there's perhaps eight to ten million people around the world involved in buying and selling gold.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: So it's far from being a Western hemisphere-centric um thing at play.
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um, what is the danger perhaps of people in this hemisphere being too fixated on what the US dollar is doing, what the Fed is doing?
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean, not realizing that the music is already playing somewhere else.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think India, China, Russia, uh, and and part of Africa, they're doing their trades now without the Americans.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: And now that it's also obvious that America cannot protect the Middle East anymore, um, this will intensify.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_02: And um, I think there's still this belief that uh America is the number one and will be the number one and has always been the number one, and that's always uh dangerous, I would say.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and I think um you don't find a lot of humble people nowadays uh in the States.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_02: So uh unfortunately that's how empires at some point end.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, you you touched on something that I'd like to sort of go into dig into it a bit deeper way.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, because you you mentioned about the oil shock impact, but you didn't really sort of develop that thesis too much because you obviously focused on other aspects.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um the we've we've seen the oil price been over 100 US dollars per barrel a few times, uh diesels becoming scarce in the United States, and the price of that is going up.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Uh fuel supplies in European countries are starting to uh experience restrictions.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: Uh in addition to the the Strait of Hormuz being choked, there's been obviously the attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, which is having a very real impact.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: How do you anticipate this?
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: And you said this is going to be the biggest, I think you said you this is gonna be the biggest oil shock ever, or words to that effect.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: How do you see this playing out and what's gonna be the impact on the gold sphere?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_02: It's very difficult to have a clearer picture of how it exactly will play out.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, most of us, including me, have assumed back in in March and April when the the drones and missiles started to fly that that that uh immediately oil should go through the roof, and immediately we would have shortages in the Western countries.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_02: For some reason, that didn't happen yet, but I think we are now at a point where the reserves, whether it's the the oil, gas, diesel, gasoline, jet fuel uh reserves, are very, very, very thin in all Western countries, uh basically globally.
• 7:19
  SPEAKER_02: And um as you said, uh diesel is short.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_02: Uh uh this will now spill over into the agrar and and the grocery products in the end of the day, right?
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so it's been very volatile, it's been very much driven by geopolitical events, it's been driven by news and headlines, by fake news, by lots of stories that Mr.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_02: Trump told one day and the other day he told the contrary.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_02: Um there is no progress.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_02: The Americans are stuck, they're not able to uh protect and defend the Middle East anymore.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_02: Um, I'm not saying that everything's good in Iran, quite the contrary.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_02: But um I think oil will continue to rise over over the next few months.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: Probably, I think$150 is a likely target.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_02: Um and and these shortages will get worse.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_02: Uh where shall it come from?
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_02: We we cannot quickly ramp up oil supply, right?
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that's impossible.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um so uh it's gonna be very interesting how they're gonna manage this.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_02: I think um the only way it will be via higher prices, right?
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, if there's not enough, then prices will rise, and the one who's still able or willing to pay higher prices will get it.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_02: Um and and and and that means more inflation in the financial system.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_02: And it is having a hard grip on the economies, of course.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: So that is already a tightening uh uh uh that is happening by by the oil and energy prices or generally the the energy markets.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_02: Hence, and that's how I came to the oil chart, hence my my doubts about why uh the Fed had to raise uh interest rates, right?
• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: Now um uh an ongoing narrative is the slow decline of the US dollar and the fact that um the US dollar is in the process of perhaps losing the reserve status.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, China, you mentioned nations in China and the Middle East, they're starting to trade and do things in their own currencies without having to come into and out of the US dollar.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Um the the conflict in the Gulf, the US is spending billions of dollars that it doesn't have to finance that, perhaps accelerating some of it its decline.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: What do you see as the sort of plausible path of the US losing its uh reserve, the US dollar losing its reserve status?
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: A gradual diversification or slow, slow, slow, and 10, boom, suddenly it's gone.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_02: Uh uh it's a good question.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_02: I I think generally I'm more in the camp of grinding lower.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_02: But is that wishful thinking or is that your hope?
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: Rather than Yeah, I mean we should not forget that uh I mean this is always too apart, also mass psychology, mass psychology.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: And many people still believe in everything that Fed or Mr.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_02: Trump or Walsh are saying while they're all just playing with the markets and the participants.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um can it be escalating and we get a dramatic crash kind of crisis within short period of time?
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: It can happen.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_02: Um usually what you then will see is a bank holiday or even two weeks of bank holidays.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_02: They figure out something, and once the market's opening up again, there's the news, and yeah, normal asset owners, whether it's uh maybe the real estate or bondholders, they might have lost a significant part of their holdings and dollar nominated.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that would be maybe one potential path that I could see.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_02: But generally, I I still think that they trying to all the time kick the can down the road.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's what we are seeing now for years and decades, right?
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_02: And um I think that's what they will try to continue.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: I guess one of the questions using continuing your metaphor, to what extent will there continue to be road to kick the can down?
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, it's a good question.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_02: Um look, uh as long as a vast majority of the population in a country is um basically enslaved by either having to work from nine to five or enslaved by having to receive social welfare checks, uh uh this can continue for a while.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: And don't forget, I mean, America can print the the money that it that it owes, right?
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_02: I mean they can print the dollars uh uh to pay the debt, uh at least on a nominal term.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so it can apparently continue much longer.
• 11:53
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I've been thinking 20 years ago this is impossible to continue, and then uh uh it happened.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_02: We we are here and I mean back then we discussed 5,000 gold.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_02: It took much longer.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_02: Um now it's obviously more clear, and and we are above we have a new all-time high above$5,000.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_02: But don't underestimate this this time component.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: This could still take longer, yeah.
• 12:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: There's some very interesting things that have been sort of playing out in the in recent weeks and months.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you mentioned that um the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates recently, uh, a move the market was widely expecting.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: But bond yields uh responded in a in a very different way.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: There seems to be a um a sort of grinding of heads together between the US interest rates or the the the rates of the Fed is setting and the bond market saying, you know, that's great, but we want to do something else.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: We're going in in a different direction.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_02: True.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I think uh to understand that you uh it's important uh to acknowledge that that we had this uh basically since the early 1980s, up the into 2020, the the year of the COVID crash, uh we had 40 years of falling interest rates.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: Uh um and then we had this reversal.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: And since then we are in a new environment where we have rising rates and falling bond prices.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: Uh and um that's the big picture, and apparently that's what the market is playing, no matter what the Fed is doing, right?
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um simply there is not enough interest at these high inflation uh uh uh numbers and also at these perceived risk and uh uh uh issues on the geopolitical front, etc.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_02: That there's not enough buyers to to to push the the yield lower, basically.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_02: That's what it is, right?
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: Um and I think this this environment will continue for a while.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_02: Um in the 1970s, it took 10 years until the the the yield ended up being double digits.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, I want to sort of go back to some of the charts you put up this morning.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um over the sort of lot extended time period you showed that uh um when gold goes up, then you showed how silver goes up, and silver often doubles the rise that gold has or or more.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, when it comes down, it comes down even harder.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and you also mentioned that um you you're surprised to see silver, the silver price go up to 121 US dollars per ounce.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: But later on in the presentation, you said that you expect some point in the let's say the medium term, you wouldn't be surprised to see silver at$250 to$500 per ounce.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, what sort of um circumstances do you think will drive silver to those levels?
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_02: Well, first of all, I've been very bullish on silver for a long time.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_02: I I showed this cup and handle chart, I always called it the mother of all cup and handles, showed it many times, and I said, once we break out above$50, we will go to$100.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_02: But I was surprised by the intensity and how quickly it went there.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_02: You remember last year it broke above$50 in I think October, went to 54, came quickly back to 46, and from there it basically went uh berserk and went to$121 within less than three months.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_02: So that was an incredible rally.
• 15:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and and of course, uh to a part, uh the the drivers for that rally back then are still in place um uh and will come back, I assume.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_02: So it is, of course, AI, the data center buildup.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_02: Uh it is uh the solar that this uh very big in in China over the last few years, of course.
• 15:33
  SPEAKER_02: And it's gonna be probably new batteries, uh new new other technologies.
• 15:38
  SPEAKER_02: Uh I I mean silver is a future mineral, if you want.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's very important for everything electronic in the future.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_02: And um and of course, once gold is too expensive, people will automatically uh uh buy silver instead of gold.
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_02: So um we are already uh trading at uh uh uh four and a half thousand uh dollars gold.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_02: Um yeah, uh if this rises over the next few years, maybe to six, eight, ten thousand dollars, I think uh many uh smaller retail investors will prefer silver than um so there could be a lot of drivers from the fundamental side, but right now I think we have to be patient with silver.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_02: It's been a crazy run up.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_02: I had this chart where I showed 330% up in 10 months.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: Uh that needs to be consolidated.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_02: So no surprise that it came down from the end of January, lost roughly 55%.
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_02: And um, I think it still will take more consolidation.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: And I also showed on one of the charts the retracement levels.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_02: Silver is very weak in terms of the retracement, uh, meaning the the the ground that has been reconquered now during the summer rally, um it's been clearly lagging uh gold in the mining stocks.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, now you mentioned the the mother uh of all cup and handles, and it was a beautiful chart.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_00: You had a very big, long, deep bowl.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_00: 45 years and then the uh the the the smaller but perfectly formed handle for those people that aren't very familiar with technical.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: What does a cup and handle um chart show you?
• 17:19
  SPEAKER_02: Well, it's uh it's a cup and a little handle, and it means basically you have a horizontal resistance, the market is running against it, pulls back, big correction, comes back up to this resistance, fails here again, and pulls back again.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_02: But this pullback is not as deep as the first one, and then the market regains strength and comes back up to this resistance again, and finally it breaks through that resistance, and that's this horizontal$50 line that that we have seen in silver over the last uh 45 years, right?
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_02: We had the the all-time high uh in 1980 at 50, in 2011 at 50, and now last year in uh September, October, uh silver went again at this$50 level.
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_02: And um, yeah, if you break out, then this pattern is basically activated, and then you take the depth of the handle, that is the first target, that was the 100 to something, 100 plus something price target that I gave, and then you take in the second step the depth of the cup, which gives you the much bigger, larger uh target.
• 18:19
  SPEAKER_02: And that's what I showed today in my chart.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um, that's why I think in the next, let's say, three to ten years, we could see silver going to 250 to 500 because that's the target I can calculate out of the depth of that cup.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, thank you.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now there's a lot going on.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_00: So um looking forward, and uh, I know it's very difficult, if not impossible, to predict what's gonna happen, but for our viewers, what are some of the key indicators that you're watching that they should perhaps watch for as well?
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_02: Well, I'm looking at a lot of technical uh indicators or charts or numbers on the gold chart basically.
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_02: So I said today that I think going forward, and that's been my opinion already the last few weeks, that we're gonna see gold sideways slowly grinding higher.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_02: It's gonna be a bumpy road higher, but overall it's probably going higher between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average.
• 19:12
  SPEAKER_02: So, as we speak now, the gold has recovered, uh started weak into this uh new week, but um has recovered ground, and it looks like the 50-day moving average is holding.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_02: So, this whole support zone 4,250, looks like uh a good strong support.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_02: Was tested during the FOMC uh meeting, uh, but has held.
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_02: And hence I think gold now is orientating itself towards the 200-day moving average, which is around 4,550.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_02: And that would stabilize the picture further and and probably build it, we'll build a base around 4,500 to then maybe later this year or early next year, then attack towards 5,000.
• 19:53
  SPEAKER_02: Um, so that's what I'm watching on the technical and price levels.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_02: And um I mean, if if you mean events or um things happening, uh of course, I assume at some point we're gonna see the next big print, and that's gonna be bigger than anything else we've experienced in our little life so far.
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and that will of course take gold dramatically higher as well.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_02: We're seeing that Bitcoin has uh reacting to all the news during August and is also uh pushing higher again now.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_02: So it's gonna be very interesting, and yeah, it could also be that things are accelerating and hence everything's happening a little bit faster now.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_02: But at the same time, I still have to urge people to be patient, understand that things will take time, right?
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_02: Patience is a thing that most people struggle with.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_02: I've been struggling a long part of my career in the markets with it.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, I've been meditating a lot to calm down and relax my ego and understand that it's in the waiting that you actually make the money.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_02: So let the trade or the investment come to you.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_02: Don't chase everything.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's uh very prudent rules and principles.
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_02: And everyone has to make these experiences.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_02: There is no shortcut.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's been a pleasure speaking with you, Florian, and congratulations on your keynote this morning.
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: Florian Grammis, thank you very much for joining us today.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you, Paul.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate it.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_00: And we have a lot more to come from the 2026 Precious Metal Summit here in Beaver Creek, Colorado.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: So stay tuned and hit that subscribe button.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Paul Harris, and this is Kitco Mining.
• 21:29
  SPEAKER_01: Kitco Mining on site coverage of the Precious Metal Summit is presented by Newcore Gold.