Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 76 : NL West Preview With Taylor Corso
Transcript
- 0:15Speaker 1: Hello and welcome everybody to episode seventy six of Cards
- 0:19Speaker 1: and Categories. I am Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined as
- 0:22Speaker 1: always by my very good friend Jeremy Burer, also from Rasball.
- 0:26Speaker 2: How are you doing tonight, Buddy, doing fantastic. Excited to
- 0:29Speaker 2: keep the series going. Breaking down the divisions today, So
- 0:32Speaker 2: it's gonna be a fun one.
- 0:33Speaker 3: I can't wait to get into it.
- 0:34Speaker 2: I know we'll go deep, we'll go we'll go places
- 0:36Speaker 2: we probably shouldn't, but I'm here for it.
- 0:38Speaker 3: So let's get kicking.
- 0:41Speaker 1: And joining us as a guest to cover the NL
- 0:44Speaker 1: West this week, We're gonna go all the way across
- 0:46Speaker 1: the coast after covering the Ale East last week. We
- 0:49Speaker 1: have Taylor Corso from Prospects Live in the Dynasty Baseball
- 0:53Speaker 1: Pickups podcast. How are you doing tonight, Taylor.
- 0:56Speaker 4: I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on, guys, I'm excited.
- 1:00Speaker 1: Yeah. So, I mean, well, you introduce yourself to our
- 1:04Speaker 1: listeners in case they're not familiar with your work. I
- 1:06Speaker 1: love your podcast. It's one of the most in depth
- 1:09Speaker 1: like Dynasty podcasts out there that you guys get into
- 1:12Speaker 1: the nitty gritty of like you find some of the
- 1:15Speaker 1: some great prospect gyms. I loved your draft coverage this
- 1:19Speaker 1: past year too. The draft coverage was really fantastic to
- 1:22Speaker 1: help everybody out kind of sort through first year player drafts.
- 1:25Speaker 1: But yeah, let everybody know where they can find you
- 1:27Speaker 1: on socials, check out your podcast and any other introduction
- 1:32Speaker 1: that you have.
- 1:33Speaker 4: Awesome, thanks Mike. As far as where to find me,
- 1:36Speaker 4: I'm on both Blue Sky and x You can find
- 1:38Speaker 4: me at Dynasty Pickups on both. You can find my
- 1:42Speaker 4: work like you mentioned, over at Prospects Live on the Patreon,
- 1:46Speaker 4: and then I have a weekly podcast that comes out
- 1:48Speaker 4: Sunday mornings. It's Dynasty Baseball Pickups, and like you mentioned,
- 1:51Speaker 4: we go pretty deep on Dynasty Leagues. You know, we'll
- 1:55Speaker 4: talk about prospects and we'll be players. We're actually doing
- 1:58Speaker 4: our division previous series right now, so this is gonna
- 2:01Speaker 4: be a little bit of early prep for my NLST podcast.
- 2:05Speaker 4: But yeah, be sure to check us out.
- 2:08Speaker 1: Excellent. Yeah, well I met you at First Picture, as
- 2:10Speaker 1: I know, so it's great to have you on and
- 2:12Speaker 1: like you said, we're gonna talk nl West. But before
- 2:15Speaker 1: we get into that, I got a little bit of
- 2:17Speaker 1: just kind of ground to cover in terms of making
- 2:20Speaker 1: sure that you check out the socials for this podcast.
- 2:22Speaker 1: You can find us at on blue Sky at cards
- 2:26Speaker 1: categories at bsky dot social. You can email the pod
- 2:29Speaker 1: at cards categories at gmail dot com. You can find
- 2:32Speaker 1: me on blue Sky at mcool seven dot bsky dot
- 2:36Speaker 1: social and brew your jbrew twenty seven or.
- 2:39Speaker 2: Seventeen one seventeen. You can find me the same place
- 2:42Speaker 2: blue sky or Twitter, slash x whatever we're calling it
- 2:45Speaker 2: these days.
- 2:46Speaker 1: Yes, and if you are checking out the podcast, we
- 2:48Speaker 1: appreciate any rates and reviews wherever you're listening to us
- 2:52Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And then lastly, we've got
- 2:56Speaker 1: Rasball subscriptions up on running for the twenty two five season.
- 3:01Speaker 1: You can get access to all the tools there, not
- 3:03Speaker 1: only just kind of the standard articles that are there.
- 3:06Speaker 1: The nice thing about subscriptions too is you can go
- 3:08Speaker 1: add free and be able to kind of cut down
- 3:10Speaker 1: on some of those load times. But my favorite part
- 3:12Speaker 1: is the tools that Rudy puts out there in terms
- 3:14Speaker 1: of the streaminader and the hitter tron. Great for weekly
- 3:20Speaker 1: projections and making sure that you're making the best moves
- 3:23Speaker 1: in all your lineups out there, as well as reading
- 3:26Speaker 1: and listening to all the great work from all the
- 3:28Speaker 1: writers that we've got over at Rasball. So let's get
- 3:31Speaker 1: into a few news and notes before we get into
- 3:33Speaker 1: our nl West coverage. It was a little bit of
- 3:35Speaker 1: a lighter week here as we are recording on January
- 3:38Speaker 1: twenty ninth, But we've got a few moves that are
- 3:40Speaker 1: going to make some impacts here out there for our
- 3:43Speaker 1: fantasy teams. The first one, I think probably the most
- 3:46Speaker 1: significant one, is we have Jerks and Profar signing a
- 3:50Speaker 1: three year deal with the Atlanta Braves. And so Profar,
- 3:53Speaker 1: the switch hitter, is coming off of a fantastic season
- 3:56Speaker 1: for the Padres slash two eighty three, eighty five, four
- 4:00Speaker 1: fifty nine for a one thirty nine WRC plus twenty
- 4:03Speaker 1: four homers, ten stolen bases, ninety four runs, eighty five RBI,
- 4:08Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty eight games. That feels really weird,
- 4:10Speaker 1: staying out loud that that came out of Jerks and Profar. So, Taylor,
- 4:14Speaker 1: what do you think about this landing spot in Atlanta
- 4:16Speaker 1: for Profar?
- 4:17Speaker 4: I really like it. I think it's a fantastic place
- 4:20Speaker 4: from DeLanda. Just being in that lineup is going to
- 4:22Speaker 4: help the counting stats for sure. You know, I'm not
- 4:24Speaker 4: fully buying into the renaissance that he had last year,
- 4:28Speaker 4: but there were some tangible changes. I think he's definitely
- 4:31Speaker 4: a better version of himself, and I think going to
- 4:34Speaker 4: Atlanta is, like I said, a great landing spot, and
- 4:36Speaker 4: I think it's a good deal for Atlanta as well.
- 4:39Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree he should hit either second or
- 4:42Speaker 1: sixth in a really deep Atlanta lineup. And so brew
- 4:46Speaker 1: you heard that crazy stat line that I just rattled
- 4:48Speaker 1: off there for Profar last year in our Player Raider,
- 4:51Speaker 1: he came in as the thirty fifth overall player. Overall
- 4:54Speaker 1: player at twenty two point three dollars, you had to
- 4:58Speaker 1: consider him for your top one hundred hitters. Eventually, Is
- 5:01Speaker 1: he gonna be in that top one hundred hitters going
- 5:03Speaker 1: to twenty twenty five?
- 5:04Speaker 2: Yeah, he will be there, probably begrudgingly, just because I
- 5:07Speaker 2: don't feel like I feel like it's like every season
- 5:10Speaker 2: Jersem Profi is gonna be the thing, and then it's
- 5:12Speaker 2: like we're ten years later and it's we're still finally
- 5:15Speaker 2: talking about it. So I don't kind of like what
- 5:18Speaker 2: Taylor said, I don't expect what we saw last year
- 5:20Speaker 2: from Profar, mainly the power department. I wouldn't be shocked
- 5:24Speaker 2: if it was half of the power that he did
- 5:26Speaker 2: last year. But across the board, he's still gonna have
- 5:28Speaker 2: solid counting stats. He's gonna he really did improve his
- 5:31Speaker 2: plate approach, So I think he's gonna be valuable. But
- 5:34Speaker 2: I'm probably slotting him towards the later portions of my
- 5:37Speaker 2: top one hundred hitters going in just you know, fool
- 5:41Speaker 2: me once twice three times throughout the years. I'm a
- 5:45Speaker 2: little jaded still at this point, but I do think
- 5:47Speaker 2: he's improved.
- 5:48Speaker 3: I do think he's a better version of himself.
- 5:50Speaker 2: Just yeah, giving me eighty five percent of last year,
- 5:54Speaker 2: and I think that's probably about where he deserves to land.
- 5:56Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a totally fair take. Well, in
- 6:00Speaker 1: a kind of serendipitous move, we also have Jerks and
- 6:02Speaker 1: Profar's best friend hasi On Kim from the Padres last
- 6:06Speaker 1: year also signed. He's going to Tampa and is inking
- 6:12Speaker 1: a two year, twenty two million dollar deal or twenty
- 6:15Speaker 1: nine million dollar deal and currently on roster resource. He's
- 6:19Speaker 1: slated to open on the injured list because of the
- 6:21Speaker 1: shoulder injury that he's recovering from last year, but I
- 6:25Speaker 1: think he should once he recovers, walk right into the
- 6:28Speaker 1: shortstop job, replacing Taylor Walls in that Tampa Bay lineup.
- 6:33Speaker 1: Kim came off of I would say a mediocre season. Obviously,
- 6:37Speaker 1: he was battering that shoulder issue, but put up a
- 6:40Speaker 1: one oh one WRC plus with eleven homers and twenty
- 6:44Speaker 1: two steels, so didn't quite get back to the levels
- 6:47Speaker 1: of twenty twenty three when he swiped thirty eight bags.
- 6:50Speaker 1: But Taylor, what do you think he can do going
- 6:53Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five here? Do you shade him more
- 6:56Speaker 1: towards like the thirty eight steel mark, more towards that
- 6:59Speaker 1: twenty two steel And do you think that the power
- 7:02Speaker 1: might come back here for Kim because Kim was more
- 7:05Speaker 1: of a power hitter before that speed outburst in twenty
- 7:07Speaker 1: twenty three.
- 7:09Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think we're definitely going to see,
- 7:11Speaker 4: you know, the speed tick back up to more of
- 7:13Speaker 4: the thirty stolen based level. I think for power, I
- 7:17Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, sees the power
- 7:20Speaker 4: he's shown the pass just from the ballpark move. I mean,
- 7:22Speaker 4: you know, two years from now, who knows what that
- 7:24Speaker 4: looks like in the drop, but this year it should
- 7:27Speaker 4: be a fantastic ballpark environment for him with the Rays
- 7:30Speaker 4: playing there in the I forget the name of the stadium,
- 7:35Speaker 4: but the Steinbrenerfield, stein Brenderfield.
- 7:37Speaker 3: There you go, thank you.
- 7:39Speaker 4: So yeah, I think it's a great landing spot for Kim.
- 7:42Speaker 4: Like you mentioned, you know, he should play every day.
- 7:45Speaker 4: I'm kind of bummed as a Giants fan. I was
- 7:47Speaker 4: hoping he would go, but that's not the case, and
- 7:51Speaker 4: it's worth doing. I believe. I saw he has an
- 7:53Speaker 4: opt out for the second year, so I think if
- 7:55Speaker 4: he has a strong year, this is going to be
- 7:57Speaker 4: a one and done with Tampa likely.
- 7:59Speaker 1: Yeah, that makes sense, or even trade fodder at the
- 8:01Speaker 1: at the deadline, given the way the Tampa operates down there.
- 8:05Speaker 1: Brew is your take in a similar vein? Or you
- 8:09Speaker 1: maybe staying away from Hassung Kim? What's your take here?
- 8:12Speaker 2: No, I'm actually a big haws On Kim fan. I
- 8:14Speaker 2: see him as a fifteen to twenty five type guy
- 8:17Speaker 2: two fifty and you're looking at Steamer projections things like that,
- 8:21Speaker 2: just maybe slightly above them. The thing I like going
- 8:23Speaker 2: to Tampa is they tend to move guys around get creative,
- 8:26Speaker 2: and so I think some that positional flexibility be there.
- 8:28Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if he has second shortstop flexibility
- 8:31Speaker 2: throughout the year, maybe even as third. So I think
- 8:34Speaker 2: that there's just a little bit of upside there, and
- 8:36Speaker 2: they paid him enough that they're gonna play him, which
- 8:39Speaker 2: is I think it was a slight concern of mine.
- 8:40Speaker 3: Of where he went.
- 8:42Speaker 2: So it's just a matter of how healthy and when
- 8:44Speaker 2: is it. You know, the Padres were saying he was
- 8:46Speaker 2: gonna be back till midyear. That was clearly tactics and
- 8:48Speaker 2: trying to resign him, at least in my opinion, and
- 8:51Speaker 2: then others were saying, hey, he's gonna be ready for
- 8:53Speaker 2: spring training. You know, it's it's gonna be a little slow,
- 8:55Speaker 2: slow going at the beginning, But one hundred twenty hundred
- 8:58Speaker 2: and thirty games, I don't think it is out of
- 8:59Speaker 2: the question, and it's gonna be worth it when he's
- 9:01Speaker 2: in there. So I think Kim's a great buy and
- 9:04Speaker 2: a lot of people are gonna be down on because
- 9:05Speaker 2: the injuries and just kind of the overall lack of
- 9:09Speaker 2: fanfare in the offseason. That deal is just not exciting.
- 9:13Speaker 2: By any means, And I think people look at that
- 9:16Speaker 2: and go, h, it's he isn't that great a player.
- 9:18Speaker 2: But this is a guy that could have had a
- 9:19Speaker 2: four or five year deal trying to get into, you know,
- 9:22Speaker 2: the eighty ninety million dollar range if he had been
- 9:25Speaker 2: fully healthy, because of what he can do with the glove.
- 9:28Speaker 3: So I like it. I'll be buying has Sung Kim
- 9:31Speaker 3: and Hoist Sung Kim shares all all spring.
- 9:35Speaker 1: Yeah, and oh yeah, Taylor, I'll say, well, that's update
- 9:38Speaker 1: I did. I did thought.
- 9:39Speaker 4: I saw an update today where he was supposed to
- 9:42Speaker 4: be back by May, so I think probably out April,
- 9:46Speaker 4: but possibly we'll return to May.
- 9:48Speaker 1: So that's not too bad, and that's not terrible. If
- 9:50Speaker 1: you're in a league that has il spots, you can
- 9:52Speaker 1: take him and stash him. Second base is so thin
- 9:56Speaker 1: that if you're able to call him some some backups
- 9:59Speaker 1: there when Kim comes back, or even at third base,
- 10:02Speaker 1: third base is also thin. I think it's a great move.
- 10:06Speaker 1: Although rip to the draft share. I took of Carson
- 10:10Speaker 1: Williams in a fifty round draft in Hold this week,
- 10:12Speaker 1: so I was really looking at that shortstop spot and
- 10:16Speaker 1: it was weak for the race. So they shorted up
- 10:18Speaker 1: with Kim for sure. All right, Well, we haven't had
- 10:22Speaker 1: too much closer news recently, but it is starting to
- 10:24Speaker 1: get into that season as teams are starting to round
- 10:27Speaker 1: out the back of their bullpens. So we had two
- 10:29Speaker 1: closer moves that happened this past week, and the first
- 10:32Speaker 1: one is Ryan Presley from the Astros was dealt to
- 10:35Speaker 1: the Cubs. Should walk right into the closer situation there.
- 10:40Speaker 1: It sounds like the way that the Cubs front office
- 10:43Speaker 1: is phrasing that is that they're looking at Ryan Presley
- 10:46Speaker 1: to be the ninth inning option over Porter Hodge going
- 10:49Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five. So Presley has come off of,
- 10:54Speaker 1: you know, a peak where he used to be the
- 10:56Speaker 1: closer in Houston, lost that job to Hater is going
- 10:59Speaker 1: to try to have to refined it after Honestly, the
- 11:02Speaker 1: stuff is diminished, The ability to stay in the strike
- 11:04Speaker 1: zone has diminished for Presley, so it's gonna be quite
- 11:07Speaker 1: the balancing act. We also have another closer move in
- 11:11Speaker 1: Kansas City, as just right before we started recording here,
- 11:16Speaker 1: they went out and signed Carlos Esteves, who you also
- 11:20Speaker 1: want to talk about, another unsteady, relieving closing option. It
- 11:23Speaker 1: looks like he's currently slotted in to take the job
- 11:26Speaker 1: from Lucas Orsig. I'm a little bit more skeptical of
- 11:30Speaker 1: that because I really like Lucas er Sig. So, Taylor,
- 11:33Speaker 1: I'm gonna bat this over to you first. If you
- 11:35Speaker 1: had to pick between Ryan Presley and Carlos Estevez, which
- 11:39Speaker 1: one are you taking? And why?
- 11:42Speaker 3: Oh?
- 11:42Speaker 4: Presley for sure. I just think the fact that they
- 11:46Speaker 4: got him to waive his no trade clause means they
- 11:48Speaker 4: gave him some sort of assurances about his role. I
- 11:51Speaker 4: would imagine it seems like, you know, I love Porter Hodge.
- 11:54Speaker 4: I have a ton of shares everywhere in Dynasty, but
- 11:57Speaker 4: it seems like all off season the Cubs have been
- 11:59Speaker 4: signaling that they're not comfortable with him being their primary
- 12:02Speaker 4: closer option. So, you know, despite what you mentioned with
- 12:06Speaker 4: Presley's like, you know, reduced strikeout rate, reduce velo, everything
- 12:09Speaker 4: like that, I still would take him over Carlos Estevez
- 12:12Speaker 4: because I agree with you like erse is so much better.
- 12:15Speaker 4: And Estevez, you know, he's fine, but he's the kind
- 12:20Speaker 4: of guy who could lose it in an instant, and
- 12:23Speaker 4: I just have more faith that erseg will take that
- 12:26Speaker 4: role eventually or just contribute more saves this year than
- 12:29Speaker 4: you know, Hodge, will If Presley Selti.
- 12:32Speaker 1: Yeah, I see, it's all kind of nodding along with
- 12:34Speaker 1: those takes. So Brew, I'm going to force you to
- 12:36Speaker 1: analyze Carlos Estevez and also what date do you think
- 12:40Speaker 1: that he loses that job to Lucas? Do you think
- 12:44Speaker 1: he even gets it out of the gate.
- 12:46Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm I'm the the pessimist here.
- 12:48Speaker 2: I think he doesn't make it out a spring training
- 12:50Speaker 2: with the job because Carlos Estevez just is kind of
- 12:53Speaker 2: a cardiac with an arm So I think ers comes
- 12:57Speaker 2: in too, you know, maybe with a chip on his
- 12:59Speaker 2: shoulder with this signing, just looks lights out. In the
- 13:02Speaker 2: spring training, which which he did last year, he looked unbelievable.
- 13:05Speaker 2: And so I think he's gonna get that they're gonna
- 13:07Speaker 2: share opportunities, and he's gonna come out, you know, being
- 13:10Speaker 2: the greater share of a time share there and just
- 13:12Speaker 2: prove that he deserves it. I think Estevez has he's
- 13:15Speaker 2: been better than he was in Colorado, but that's not
- 13:18Speaker 2: saying saying much any picture believing Colorado seems to get better.
- 13:23Speaker 2: So I take air Stig there in any day. I
- 13:27Speaker 2: also a Taylor there. I'm taking Pressly any day over
- 13:29Speaker 2: either of them. Generally, probably a bullpen I'm staying away
- 13:32Speaker 2: with unless you're going to deeper leagues things like that.
- 13:35Speaker 2: But I have zero interest in Estevez. I just think
- 13:38Speaker 2: it's the that's one of those ones that you look
- 13:40Speaker 2: back in the season and your bullpen blew up like
- 13:42Speaker 2: three times in April and you're just fighting it all
- 13:45Speaker 2: year trying to get that back because he gave up
- 13:47Speaker 2: like six runs of the ninth three times, and he's like,
- 13:50Speaker 2: why why did I believe in this guy? So I
- 13:53Speaker 2: I'd rather be wrong and not own him than be
- 13:56Speaker 2: right and own him type of thing.
- 13:58Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And I mean I I think I'm with
- 14:00Speaker 1: you guys too here. That I think it's Presley is
- 14:04Speaker 1: an easy take, although obviously with that caveat that I
- 14:07Speaker 1: gave that, you know, it hasn't been the best stretch
- 14:10Speaker 1: of time here for Presley as he lost that job
- 14:13Speaker 1: to Hater. But I'm actually the true loser here because
- 14:17Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to be the one because Lucas Ersik
- 14:20Speaker 1: is not the bastion of health. I do think that
- 14:22Speaker 1: he's going to go through a spell of like having
- 14:24Speaker 1: to be sidelined, and in my waiver wire column, I'm
- 14:26Speaker 1: gonna be that loser that has to be like Carlos
- 14:29Speaker 1: Estevez is your only source of saves on the waiver wire,
- 14:31Speaker 1: have fun and have to analyze him week in week
- 14:34Speaker 1: out while he's sitting there for everybody. So look forward
- 14:38Speaker 1: to that on ras ball all summer. Okay, well, with that,
- 14:42Speaker 1: let's just get right into our NL West preview that
- 14:45Speaker 1: covers the main news and notes, because I want to
- 14:47Speaker 1: give us plenty of time to get into what I
- 14:50Speaker 1: think is very quickly becoming one of our favorite segments
- 14:54Speaker 1: here of the pod. And we've got forty five guys
- 14:58Speaker 1: to cover, assuming that we don't have some double dips,
- 15:02Speaker 1: but I think we might, given I know how each
- 15:04Speaker 1: of us kind of play Fantasy Baseball that I think
- 15:06Speaker 1: we've got probably some similar buys and sells and picks
- 15:09Speaker 1: to click here. So if you're not familiar with what
- 15:11Speaker 1: we're going to do, we're going to run through the
- 15:13Speaker 1: entire NL West Division here, start from the alphabetically first
- 15:18Speaker 1: team all the way down, and then what we're going
- 15:21Speaker 1: to do for each team is we're going to each
- 15:24Speaker 1: pick one by one sell one prospectee pick to click
- 15:28Speaker 1: young player that we like. For each team, we are
- 15:33Speaker 1: going to be using NFBC Draft Champions ADP data. We're
- 15:39Speaker 1: always like, everyone's always like on a different date. I'm
- 15:42Speaker 1: going to try to stick to just the January drafts,
- 15:44Speaker 1: but if you've got a different one, I don't think
- 15:46Speaker 1: it's been varying that much across the board from when
- 15:49Speaker 1: we've been talking.
- 15:50Speaker 3: But we're going to.
- 15:52Speaker 1: Start off with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who in twenty twenty
- 15:55Speaker 1: three went to the World Series. Last year missed out
- 15:58Speaker 1: on the wild card by one game. Dim I recall that, right, Yes, yep, yes,
- 16:04Speaker 1: just by that tie man. Twenty twenty four seems so
- 16:07Speaker 1: long ago. But the Dbacks have gone out and you know,
- 16:13Speaker 1: brought in some help as Christian Walker is no longer
- 16:17Speaker 1: manning the cold corner there. They brought in Josh Naylor,
- 16:19Speaker 1: trading away Slates Cony, and on top of it, they've
- 16:23Speaker 1: got the biggest move that I just kind of buried
- 16:24Speaker 1: the lead on, bringing in the Ace Corbyn Burns to
- 16:27Speaker 1: anchor the top of that staff. He's from Arizona, so
- 16:31Speaker 1: should be pretty comfortable slotting in there. After a pretty
- 16:35Speaker 1: nice season in Baltimore. So Taylor, we're gonna start with
- 16:38Speaker 1: you as the guest. I'm gonna kick it over to you.
- 16:40Speaker 1: Who is your buy from the Arizona Diamondbacks at their
- 16:43Speaker 1: ADP currently.
- 16:45Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm probably gonna be a little bit deeper
- 16:48Speaker 4: with most of these just because you know, I play
- 16:50Speaker 4: a lot of dynasty, a lot of deeper rosters. And
- 16:54Speaker 4: when I call this guy I buy, I mean it
- 16:56Speaker 4: because I actually traded for him earlier today. So my guy,
- 17:00Speaker 4: my buye, I should say, is Alec Thomas. He's going
- 17:04Speaker 4: in January NFBC ADP. He's going five oh seven at
- 17:07Speaker 4: least when I pulled the data, which was maybe a
- 17:09Speaker 4: couple of days ago, so could have changed a little bit,
- 17:12Speaker 4: But five hundred and seventh and EIGHTP so he's really
- 17:14Speaker 4: really low. Don't even need a draft him outside of
- 17:17Speaker 4: like a deeper you know, fifteen team or like a
- 17:19Speaker 4: DC or something. But he's actually going behind names like
- 17:22Speaker 4: Gary Sanchez justin turner roster resource that doesn't even have
- 17:27Speaker 4: him in the starting lineup. They have him as a
- 17:30Speaker 4: fourth outfielder. But I'm fairly confident he's going to play
- 17:33Speaker 4: this year because he provides elite center field defense. And
- 17:37Speaker 4: you look at his defensive metrics from twenty point two
- 17:40Speaker 4: and twenty twenty three, he's the best center fielder that
- 17:43Speaker 4: the Diamondbacks have. Now, I'm kind of throwing out last
- 17:46Speaker 4: year because he was injured. It wasn't a very large sample,
- 17:48Speaker 4: So I think he can get back to what he
- 17:51Speaker 4: was before. But I think you know, any team that
- 17:53Speaker 4: has a young player who can play center field, they're
- 17:57Speaker 4: not just gonna stash that on the bench. There's a
- 17:58Speaker 4: reason guys like Jose and you know, Michael Taylor back
- 18:02Speaker 4: in the day, we're getting tons of run because they
- 18:05Speaker 4: can actually play good center field defense. When you think
- 18:10Speaker 4: about Alec Thomas, it's important remember he's just going to
- 18:13Speaker 4: be twenty four on opening Day. He was once a
- 18:16Speaker 4: consensus top one hundred prospect from twenty twenty to twenty
- 18:19Speaker 4: twenty two when he debuted. I mean, you think about
- 18:22Speaker 4: you know, Corbyn Carroll and Jordan Lawler. Well, MLB Pipeline
- 18:27Speaker 4: at Baseball America actually had Alec Thomas over Corbyn Carroll
- 18:30Speaker 4: back in twenty twenty. In twenty twenty two, Pipeline and
- 18:33Speaker 4: Baseball Perspectus had Alec Thomas over Jordan Lawler and in
- 18:40Speaker 4: you know, I worked for Prospects Live and our last
- 18:41Speaker 4: update in twenty twenty two on Alec Thomas. We had
- 18:44Speaker 4: him number three behind those two guys, but we gave
- 18:46Speaker 4: him a fifty five OFP sixty hit tool, fifty power,
- 18:50Speaker 4: sixty fielder, sixty runner, so really really good toolsy young outfielder.
- 18:55Speaker 4: And you look at what he's done so far in
- 18:56Speaker 4: his three seasons in the bigs, it hasn't been great.
- 18:59Speaker 4: He has a career six nine ops and he lost
- 19:02Speaker 4: his job last season. So you could look at, you know,
- 19:04Speaker 4: roster resource, say this guy's not gonna play. He lost
- 19:06Speaker 4: his job to Jake McCarthy, but you have to really
- 19:08Speaker 4: look at what his season actually was last year. He
- 19:11Speaker 4: actually reworked his swing prior to the season, and there
- 19:15Speaker 4: was a lot of buzz about him in spring training
- 19:17Speaker 4: because he apparently set a new max EV of one
- 19:20Speaker 4: sixteen miles an hour like that is kind of ridiculous
- 19:24Speaker 4: for a guy who you know, had never shown a
- 19:26Speaker 4: lot of power before, definitely had the tools, so there
- 19:29Speaker 4: was some excitement about the new swing. He put up
- 19:31Speaker 4: a nineteen OPS in spring training, look poised to breakout,
- 19:35Speaker 4: got three hits in his first two games, including a
- 19:37Speaker 4: home run in double so like the breakout looked like
- 19:39Speaker 4: it was there, and then he got hurt and then
- 19:42Speaker 4: it was you know. He strained his hamstring in the
- 19:45Speaker 4: fourth game of the season, starts his rehab in May,
- 19:49Speaker 4: plays three games, has a setback, has to get a
- 19:51Speaker 4: PRP injection, restarts his rehab in June another three games,
- 19:57Speaker 4: and then has to pause due to sowreness. So like
- 19:59Speaker 4: he must hate the number three because it was like
- 20:00Speaker 4: every time he played three games he was back on
- 20:02Speaker 4: the il for something. So he restarts it again in
- 20:05Speaker 4: late June, plays six games this time, and then gets
- 20:08Speaker 4: activated to the big league level. So he's had this
- 20:11Speaker 4: start stop, start stop, very short rehab period. Goes to
- 20:15Speaker 4: the big league, shows better evs than he's shown in
- 20:17Speaker 4: the past, but struggles. Clearly the leg is still bothering
- 20:22Speaker 4: him because the sprint seats speeds way down. The defense
- 20:26Speaker 4: is not as great as it has been. Meanwhile, the
- 20:28Speaker 4: time he's up in the big leagues, Jake McCarthy is
- 20:31Speaker 4: having the.
- 20:31Speaker 3: Stretch of his life.
- 20:33Speaker 4: Jake McCarthy had over one thousand ops during the time
- 20:37Speaker 4: that Alec Thomas was there, struggling in the Major. So
- 20:40Speaker 4: what happens, well, Alec Thomas loses his playing time, he
- 20:43Speaker 4: gets sent back down, plays three games again in TRIPAA,
- 20:47Speaker 4: hurts his oblique overall played just you know, was out
- 20:54Speaker 4: for about a month. Returns in September, and then you know,
- 21:00Speaker 4: plays fairly well eight games that he showed after his
- 21:05Speaker 4: demotion two Triple A. He played eight games in the Majors.
- 21:07Speaker 4: Slashed four hundred four to seventy two six fifty six,
- 21:10Speaker 4: with two home runs and two doubles in those eight games,
- 21:12Speaker 4: so it looked like he was trying to kind of
- 21:14Speaker 4: figure things out. At the end of the year. The
- 21:17Speaker 4: jury is still on the swing changes. We never know
- 21:19Speaker 4: kind of how real those are, how much those are.
- 21:21Speaker 1: Going to stick.
- 21:22Speaker 4: But despite his struggles last year, he had a career
- 21:24Speaker 4: high ISO, career high average, EV, career high barrel rate,
- 21:27Speaker 4: hard hit rate, poll rate, strikeout rate, XBA, x LUG,
- 21:31Speaker 4: and x WOLBA, so some really promising signs there. Vastly
- 21:34Speaker 4: underperformed his expected stats. The one thing I will say
- 21:38Speaker 4: is he did struggle with the ground ball rate, and
- 21:40Speaker 4: that's something that's haunted him in the past. He had
- 21:41Speaker 4: a sixty percent ground ball rate at the big league
- 21:44Speaker 4: level last year. Again, weird season, small sample, but you
- 21:48Speaker 4: look at what he did in Triple A during his
- 21:51Speaker 4: rehab and his demotion. He did the lowest ground ball
- 21:54Speaker 4: rate of his minor league career at forty one percent.
- 21:57Speaker 4: So even there you can see there's some amazing signs.
- 22:01Speaker 4: Also performed well against lefties two, which has been a
- 22:03Speaker 4: little bit an issue for him in the past. Again,
- 22:06Speaker 4: all this in a sixteen game sample at Triple A,
- 22:08Speaker 4: so hard to really buy too much into it. Projections
- 22:11Speaker 4: have him as a two point fifty hitter with mid
- 22:15Speaker 4: teen's power and speed over a full season. I needed
- 22:20Speaker 4: to double check that because I think I might have. Yeah,
- 22:23Speaker 4: they have him as a two to fifty hitter. Okay, yeah,
- 22:25Speaker 4: I was gonna say, I don't really buy that because
- 22:26Speaker 4: he hasn't posted that yet. But yeah, even projections are
- 22:28Speaker 4: on him as a two fifty hitter with you know,
- 22:31Speaker 4: almost double digit home runs and stolen bases and about
- 22:34Speaker 4: half a seasons worth of plate appearance. I think he's
- 22:35Speaker 4: gonna have way more than half a season worth of
- 22:37Speaker 4: plate appearance. I think he can hit over two fifty,
- 22:40Speaker 4: and I think he can be somewhere between fifteen and
- 22:42Speaker 4: twenty home runs and stolen bases in the amount of
- 22:45Speaker 4: playing time. I think he's gonna have this year. So
- 22:47Speaker 4: that's why I'm buying Alec Thomas. I swear not all
- 22:49Speaker 4: of mine will be this long winded, but really passionate
- 22:52Speaker 4: about this guy.
- 22:53Speaker 1: No, I mean, I think it's this is a great take.
- 22:55Speaker 1: I was really passionate about him last year that, like
- 22:57Speaker 1: I remember I wrote about him in one of my
- 22:59Speaker 1: pieces is right before one of those injuries, somewhere in
- 23:03Speaker 1: that long line, And I think you nailed all the
- 23:06Speaker 1: points here that Like, I think this is a great
- 23:09Speaker 1: sleeper pick just across the board and you just look
- 23:13Speaker 1: at I love guys like this who don't strike out
- 23:16Speaker 1: that much, But it does feel like Alec Thomas at
- 23:19Speaker 1: some point he's gonna pop like a twenty five to
- 23:21Speaker 1: twenty five season and really be a huge fantasy asset.
- 23:26Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's a great call on McCarthy. Like
- 23:29Speaker 2: he McCarthy has so much talent, but he doesn't seem
- 23:32Speaker 2: like he knows how to put it together.
- 23:33Speaker 3: So I don't think it's.
- 23:34Speaker 2: A big, you know, big thing saying in the way
- 23:36Speaker 2: McCarthy doesn't start strong, Thomas gets an absolute opportunity to
- 23:40Speaker 2: run with it, and McCarthy starts strong. At some point
- 23:43Speaker 2: he's gonna have a downturn Like that's it just seems
- 23:46Speaker 2: the player that he has been. So it is deep,
- 23:48Speaker 2: but I like it.
- 23:49Speaker 3: I like it. It's gonna be fun.
- 23:50Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Jeremy, who's yours.
- 23:54Speaker 3: We're gonna go not nearly as deep.
- 23:56Speaker 2: I'll go deeper when we get to our clicks to
- 23:59Speaker 2: pick here, but I'm gonna go with a the number
- 24:02Speaker 2: five starter, Brandon fat for the Diamondbacks here, and don't
- 24:08Speaker 2: look at the numbers, don't look at the stats. It
- 24:11Speaker 2: doesn't look fantastic by any means. It's not like he
- 24:13Speaker 2: was great in the second half or anything like that. Really,
- 24:16Speaker 2: what it comes down to with with with Brandon Fatt
- 24:18Speaker 2: is he does a little bit of everything just really
- 24:23Speaker 2: above average. I don't want to say it's like really
- 24:25Speaker 2: really well. It's like it's just all the little metrics
- 24:28Speaker 2: across the board. So he does strike out guys at
- 24:31Speaker 2: the strikeout or ending, He keeps the walks in check,
- 24:33Speaker 2: he keeps the ball on the ground, he really controls
- 24:38Speaker 2: the strike zone. He does really well across the board,
- 24:42Speaker 2: and that turns out to be a pretty good pitcher
- 24:44Speaker 2: when you are, you know, going into your twenty six
- 24:47Speaker 2: year old season. And if you look at what he's
- 24:51Speaker 2: been able to do, like in the playoffs and things
- 24:53Speaker 2: like that, we've seen flashes of brilliance and he is
- 24:56Speaker 2: a guy that brings it.
- 24:57Speaker 3: In the mid mid nineties.
- 24:59Speaker 2: And I think there's probably another their tick there with
- 25:01Speaker 2: that that body type. He is six four two twenty,
- 25:04Speaker 2: like you expect that he's gonna be able to start
- 25:06Speaker 2: to pull more out of that as even sure and
- 25:08Speaker 2: figure out what he's doing.
- 25:10Speaker 3: The other thing that I like.
- 25:11Speaker 2: About him is you just look at that overall kind
- 25:14Speaker 2: of profile, the bad of ball profile. And I was
- 25:17Speaker 2: over on Baseball Savant looking at like who do you
- 25:19Speaker 2: comp with? Who do you comp with? And the top
- 25:22Speaker 2: three comps where guys I'm like, yeah, that is what
- 25:24Speaker 2: we expect from Brandon Fatt And we absolutely can get
- 25:27Speaker 2: Pablo Lopez, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, Guys that keep the
- 25:31Speaker 2: ball on the ground, decent control. They're not gonna blow
- 25:34Speaker 2: you away, but they're gonna do just good enough job.
- 25:37Speaker 2: And so I think that's where fat is. I don't
- 25:40Speaker 2: think Jordan Montgomery is a risk to Brandon Fatt in
- 25:44Speaker 2: the in the rotation, I was a little concerned with
- 25:46Speaker 2: Corbin Byrne's signed, but I think that there's a lot here.
- 25:49Speaker 3: He's going off the board, you.
- 25:51Speaker 2: Know, at the one eighty six, so we're definitely well
- 25:55Speaker 2: into the double digits round round fifteen ish here, and
- 25:58Speaker 2: so talking mid to the end of the rotation. Perfect
- 26:02Speaker 2: option and definitely gonna carry you from an Indians perspective
- 26:05Speaker 2: as well as because he was one hundred and eighty
- 26:08Speaker 2: Indians last year and the projections have that down a
- 26:12Speaker 2: little bit. I think his questions about that, you know,
- 26:13Speaker 2: a six span rotation, and like I said, I just
- 26:15Speaker 2: don't believe that's gonna be the case. And I think
- 26:18Speaker 2: he's definitely got more more in the tank, and all
- 26:21Speaker 2: those underlying metrics is s FIP things like that show
- 26:24Speaker 2: that he's more of a mid threes to hygh mid
- 26:26Speaker 2: three guy than what he's shown nearly a five era.
- 26:30Speaker 3: So I'm buying him all day.
- 26:33Speaker 2: He's cheap, he's easy, and I don't see the roller
- 26:37Speaker 2: coaster with like a lot of other pictures of the
- 26:38Speaker 2: same ADP where they can just blow up on you
- 26:41Speaker 2: left and right, I think this is a I hate
- 26:43Speaker 2: to say, a safe buy pick.
- 26:46Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it does feel weird saying that about
- 26:48Speaker 1: Brandon Fat considering what he did to us, you know,
- 26:52Speaker 1: just in twenty twenty three. But I honestly he was
- 26:56Speaker 1: one of my high picks in terms of like guys
- 26:59Speaker 1: I evaluated for this. I think it's a great call.
- 27:01Speaker 1: He's ready for the volume two, another season of one
- 27:04Speaker 1: hundred and eighty innings that that's harder and harder to find,
- 27:09Speaker 1: all right, my buye so we do have three separate
- 27:12Speaker 1: ones is it's Justin Martinez here. So Justin Martinez is
- 27:16Speaker 1: going off the board as pick number average. Oh, I
- 27:20Speaker 1: didn't even follow my own rules by setting my average
- 27:24Speaker 1: picks for just the month of January, So I'm the
- 27:27Speaker 1: one that's breaking the rules here. Now it's actually fallen
- 27:31Speaker 1: since what I was looking at. So he's averaging around
- 27:34Speaker 1: picked two fifty two here in January, and I just
- 27:38Speaker 1: don't have a lot of faith here in aj Puck
- 27:40Speaker 1: being able to steal as many saves away from Justin
- 27:43Speaker 1: Martinez as I think people are projecting. I think that
- 27:46Speaker 1: the Dbacks are going to use Puck in more of
- 27:49Speaker 1: like an Andrew Miller is role just given how good
- 27:52Speaker 1: his tools are and being a former starter that they're
- 27:56Speaker 1: going to try to get a little more length out
- 27:58Speaker 1: of Puck. And on top of I don't think they
- 28:00Speaker 1: need Puck to be closing. I love Justin Martinez. Just
- 28:05Speaker 1: a great, great slider, wicked splitter. He's really tough to
- 28:09Speaker 1: square up and just was striking out tons and tons
- 28:13Speaker 1: of batters last year for the K nine it was
- 28:16Speaker 1: eleven point three K nine. The walks are a little high,
- 28:19Speaker 1: but he doesn't give up homers. He's got a great
- 28:22Speaker 1: ground ball approach, and I think that mix is gonna
- 28:24Speaker 1: work really well. It reminds me a little bit of
- 28:26Speaker 1: like like a Brad Lidge or something like that, where
- 28:30Speaker 1: it's just such a wicked slider, pretty good heat. It's
- 28:33Speaker 1: not like the greatest shape on the fastball, but good
- 28:35Speaker 1: heat to keep everybody honest. And I think this is
- 28:38Speaker 1: a great opportunity for Everyone's gotten penciled in for like
- 28:43Speaker 1: twenty ish saves, but I think he could push almost
- 28:46Speaker 1: thirty just given that he's right handed over Puck's left
- 28:49Speaker 1: handed option, and the d becks should be relatively good
- 28:52Speaker 1: and in close games, I think he's he's a sleeper
- 28:56Speaker 1: kind of closer to going into this season that I
- 28:59Speaker 1: think you can by pretty late.
- 29:02Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it'll be interesting to see. I think
- 29:04Speaker 3: you're right.
- 29:05Speaker 2: Like Puck, I don't He's shown so much promise in
- 29:10Speaker 2: such short spurts, and it always seems to be in spring.
- 29:13Speaker 3: Training, and so.
- 29:16Speaker 2: I I see where you're going there. Yeah, very very
- 29:21Speaker 2: good point. I might get a battle spring training. But
- 29:24Speaker 2: I do think that Puck starts the season as the closer,
- 29:27Speaker 2: and I think he does great for like two three
- 29:29Speaker 2: weeks and then it starts to falter. And so I
- 29:33Speaker 2: think I think you're right. I think Martinez has a
- 29:35Speaker 2: lot more upside. They're going right next to each other
- 29:38Speaker 2: for more lack of better terms than the in the
- 29:40Speaker 2: draft data, like there are a few rounds apart. So
- 29:43Speaker 2: I think that people are just not sure what to
- 29:45Speaker 2: do in the bullpen. I'm personally probably just gonna stay
- 29:47Speaker 2: away from that bullpen altogether because I think there's just
- 29:50Speaker 2: enough volatility there that I I just don't want to
- 29:53Speaker 2: deal with it.
- 29:54Speaker 3: But that's just because I'm lazy. So I think there's
- 29:57Speaker 3: a lot of potential there. You're right.
- 29:58Speaker 2: I think this is one that I would want to
- 30:00Speaker 2: see spring training, the confidence from from Martinez and see
- 30:03Speaker 2: what he looks like, because I think a lot of
- 30:04Speaker 2: the skills there. He's just he's young, and I'm not
- 30:07Speaker 2: sure they're willing to fully turn over the rains yet
- 30:09Speaker 2: unless he unless he looks dominant.
- 30:12Speaker 4: All right, Yeah, I'm more with you, Mike, Like I
- 30:14Speaker 4: think Martinez is the guy. Like I love AJ Puck.
- 30:17Speaker 4: I've always loved AJ Puck, but I just you know,
- 30:20Speaker 4: the lefty righty split. I just think Martinez is gonna
- 30:23Speaker 4: get most of those safe opportunities. And I love that
- 30:25Speaker 4: call up.
- 30:26Speaker 1: I appreciate it. I knew we had John for a
- 30:28Speaker 1: good reason here, Taylor, all right, well let's move on
- 30:32Speaker 1: to ourselves. Taylor, who's your cell here?
- 30:34Speaker 3: All right?
- 30:35Speaker 4: So if my boy's gonna be Alec Thomas, he's got
- 30:36Speaker 4: to play over somebody. So my cell's got to be
- 30:39Speaker 4: Jake McCarthy right now. He's going at ADP of two seventeen,
- 30:43Speaker 4: going ahead of guys like Jorge Hilaire, Byron Buxton, Nolan Jones,
- 30:48Speaker 4: Garrett Mitchell, Evan Carter, Lars Nubar, like tons of other outfitters.
- 30:51Speaker 4: I would much rather have than Jake McCarthy, and he's
- 30:54Speaker 4: just not the defender that Alec Thomas is. Like he
- 30:57Speaker 4: he can play, you know, maybe a serviceable center field
- 31:00Speaker 4: if you squent, but like he's not going to provide
- 31:04Speaker 4: the defensive value that Thomas is. And I really think
- 31:06Speaker 4: Thomas is going to take over that role, either you know,
- 31:09Speaker 4: out of spring training or at some point in the season,
- 31:12Speaker 4: because Jake McCarthy is a better fantasy player than he
- 31:16Speaker 4: is a real life player. He does not impact the
- 31:18Speaker 4: ball at all. First percentile average ex of velocity the
- 31:22Speaker 4: worst in the league, fourth percentile barrel rate, second percentile
- 31:26Speaker 4: hard hit rate, fifth percentile batspeed, just has no oomph.
- 31:31Speaker 4: H doesn't walk much, he chases. He you know, greatly
- 31:35Speaker 4: outperformed his expected stats last year. He was pretty much
- 31:37Speaker 4: fully reliant on Babbit. And when he doesn't get that
- 31:41Speaker 4: Babbitt look like we saw it in twenty twenty three,
- 31:43Speaker 4: he just doesn't perform. And he profiles much better as
- 31:46Speaker 4: a fourth outfielder. You know, when you look when I
- 31:49Speaker 4: mentioned like his crazy stretch he had where he had
- 31:50Speaker 4: a thousand oh ps when ale Thomas was up. Guess
- 31:53Speaker 4: what happened after Alex thought Thomas was demoted. He slashed
- 31:56Speaker 4: two thirty seven ninety five. McCarthy did from from the
- 32:00Speaker 4: point that Thomas was devoted to the rest of the season.
- 32:03Speaker 4: He does not have a stronghold on that job. Everybody
- 32:05Speaker 4: is treating it like he's gonna have that job for
- 32:07Speaker 4: the whole year. And I would stay as far away
- 32:10Speaker 4: as I can get from McCarthy during drafts because I
- 32:13Speaker 4: don't think he's gonna keep that job for very long,
- 32:15Speaker 4: if at all.
- 32:16Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm totally with you that it feels like, you know,
- 32:21Speaker 1: Lucy pulling the football up from Charlie again here, especially
- 32:24Speaker 1: given how hype and I mean he was being drafted
- 32:28Speaker 1: so high after that twenty twenty two season that it
- 32:31Speaker 1: was absurd that I totally agree with you here.
- 32:34Speaker 2: But you still want to you want it to happen
- 32:36Speaker 2: though you doo, but it's just not gonna But it
- 32:39Speaker 2: still feels like the hope is there so coming from
- 32:42Speaker 2: the guy that just gave him Jerks some profar ten
- 32:43Speaker 2: years ago. Yes, well, yeah, who's your cell here? Brew
- 32:48Speaker 2: So so mysel I'm gonna go a little bit further
- 32:51Speaker 2: up the draft board, but I'm staying in the outfield. Uh,
- 32:54Speaker 2: that should give it away, I'm selling Corbyn Carrol and
- 32:57Speaker 2: it's not, and it's hear me out. It's not because
- 33:01Speaker 2: I don't think Corbyn Carroll's valuable and talented. I think
- 33:04Speaker 2: it's because if I look at the that top round
- 33:08Speaker 2: top round and a half, the there's just enough uncertainty
- 33:12Speaker 2: with Carol of how lost he was in the first
- 33:15Speaker 2: half last year.
- 33:16Speaker 3: And I know he figured it out.
- 33:17Speaker 2: I know he was incredibly valuable in the second half,
- 33:19Speaker 2: and he you know, he looked like a top of
- 33:22Speaker 2: the first round uh kind of talent. But I look
- 33:25Speaker 2: past him and I look at somebody like a Lad Junior.
- 33:27Speaker 2: I look at somebody like a Francis scool indoor, I
- 33:29Speaker 2: look at guys like that behind him in the draft order.
- 33:32Speaker 2: I'm like, I, if I'm making my first round pick,
- 33:35Speaker 2: I don't really want to be like, well, I hope
- 33:38Speaker 2: that doesn't happen again.
- 33:39Speaker 3: I don't want hope to be my strategy.
- 33:41Speaker 2: I want some guy that I feel like I know
- 33:43Speaker 2: what I'm getting and if they have a great season,
- 33:45Speaker 2: they're gonna be absolutely worth it.
- 33:48Speaker 3: And if they have an.
- 33:49Speaker 2: Average or bad season for them, they're like a second
- 33:52Speaker 2: or third rounder. Like Carol, I worried if he is
- 33:55Speaker 2: a bad season, he's like a tenth round I could,
- 33:57Speaker 2: you know, we're not talking about the other al lat year,
- 34:00Speaker 2: and I see Julio right nearman in the in the rankings,
- 34:03Speaker 2: like Julio and Corbin both have this like they could
- 34:06Speaker 2: be number one picks. They also could be number you know,
- 34:10Speaker 2: third or fourth round type of guys, because it still
- 34:13Speaker 2: seems like they're trying to figure it out. So it's
- 34:16Speaker 2: it's not that I don't believe in Corbora Carrol. It's
- 34:18Speaker 2: just I believe in some other guys, and there's enough
- 34:20Speaker 2: volatility there that I would rather go elsewhere at that
- 34:22Speaker 2: point in the draft. I'm not kicking them down, like
- 34:25Speaker 2: out of the second round or anything like that. But
- 34:27Speaker 2: as I look at that, I think the draft price
- 34:29Speaker 2: is just a little too high. Give me MOOKI Bets,
- 34:31Speaker 2: give me Vlad, give me those kind of guys. I'm
- 34:34Speaker 2: not gonna take Paul Skins that really, but maybe more
- 34:37Speaker 2: power to you. So yep, I'm selling. I'm selling a
- 34:40Speaker 2: first rounder. Doesn't mean that he's a ninth rounder or
- 34:44Speaker 2: tenth rounder. But Carroll's just got to there's something about
- 34:48Speaker 2: how much he struggled and how long it took him
- 34:50Speaker 2: to figure things out that. I just I worry that
- 34:52Speaker 2: there's a little bit more going on the head there
- 34:54Speaker 2: a lah Zach grinky uh than anybody really wants to
- 34:58Speaker 2: put up with.
- 35:00Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think all those takes are fair,
- 35:01Speaker 1: and especially like if he's not stealing fifty bags. That's
- 35:06Speaker 1: really what buoyed Corby and Carrol back in twenty twenty
- 35:09Speaker 1: three is that you were counting on fifty ish bags
- 35:14Speaker 1: and being an elite option there that if that speed's
- 35:17Speaker 1: not at an elite level, he doesn't impact the ball
- 35:20Speaker 1: hard enough to be able to go beyond his mid
- 35:22Speaker 1: twenties power.
- 35:23Speaker 2: And the empower and the speed was the one thing
- 35:25Speaker 2: was consistent all season, and so he actually stole more
- 35:28Speaker 2: bases in the first half when he wasn't hitting than
- 35:30Speaker 2: the second half. Now, don't look at the games played
- 35:33Speaker 2: thirty games difference one game one steal difference, just ignore
- 35:36Speaker 2: that part of the stat But at the end of
- 35:38Speaker 2: the day, like the speed was relatively consistent, he was
- 35:41Speaker 2: stealing at the same rate, and it seemed like it
- 35:43Speaker 2: just dropped down to probably a normal level for Corbin Carrol.
- 35:48Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair well, yeah, we've got
- 35:50Speaker 1: three different ones again because my cell here is going
- 35:52Speaker 1: to be Josh Naylor. That I just do not like
- 35:55Speaker 1: this move in terms of especially when you're looking at
- 35:58Speaker 1: the park factor going into Arizona. It's a huge, huge downgrade.
- 36:02Speaker 1: It's been you know, near the bottom for right handers.
- 36:06Speaker 1: I just had it where to go. It is eleventh
- 36:11Speaker 1: from the bottom, so ninety four overall. But you know
- 36:15Speaker 1: where he came from. Well, I guess progressive is a
- 36:18Speaker 1: three year seventy eight. Oh wait, I'm looking at right handers,
- 36:22Speaker 1: my bad left handers. Let's do left handers. That's what
- 36:25Speaker 1: I need. That's where Chase fields last. Haha, knew, I
- 36:29Speaker 1: knew I had seen this at one point. Yes, so
- 36:31Speaker 1: Chase is worse at seventy six. Where you've got the guardians.
- 36:35Speaker 1: You know, for a left handed bat like Josh Naylor,
- 36:39Speaker 1: you're closer to league average around like ninety six. And
- 36:44Speaker 1: the other factor here is the back half of this
- 36:48Speaker 1: Arizona lineup is a little worrisome. If I'm looking at
- 36:53Speaker 1: it as the GM of the Diamondbacks that it would help,
- 36:56Speaker 1: you know, if Alec Thomas breaks out and provides some
- 37:00Speaker 1: strength to the back of it, but you know Naylor's
- 37:02Speaker 1: slated hit third, and then you know you have Guriel
- 37:06Speaker 1: let clean up with you solid, but then it goes McCarthy.
- 37:08Speaker 1: You don't know what you're getting out you Hineo Suarez,
- 37:10Speaker 1: don't know what you're ganging out of, Peven Smith, Gabriel
- 37:13Speaker 1: Moreno's pre solid in the eight hole, and then Perdomo
- 37:15Speaker 1: in the nine hole. So you've got a pretty weak
- 37:19Speaker 1: supporting cast behind Naylor where I think they can work
- 37:22Speaker 1: around him a little bit more. You've got the park
- 37:24Speaker 1: change that's gonna be going against him. And then on
- 37:28Speaker 1: top of it all, like, I just don't think you're
- 37:31Speaker 1: gonna see another year like what we got out Josh
- 37:34Speaker 1: Naylor last year in terms of thirty one bombs of
- 37:36Speaker 1: one oh eight RBIs that it feels like that's where
- 37:40Speaker 1: he can peek at and I just don't know if
- 37:42Speaker 1: he can get back to that level again in his
- 37:46Speaker 1: career with a barrel rate that doesn't you know, push
- 37:49Speaker 1: double digits as well as you're looking at, you know,
- 37:53Speaker 1: the first base market where he's going. Let me, it's
- 37:57Speaker 1: just not exactly where I want to be buying Josh
- 38:01Speaker 1: Naylor in the top one hundred you know, right next
- 38:02Speaker 1: to Anthony Santander and Cody Bellinger. Well, I do not
- 38:06Speaker 1: really not Bellagie either, but I would rather have Riley
- 38:09Speaker 1: Green you know, about ten picks later that there's just
- 38:13Speaker 1: better options I think in that area where you either
- 38:17Speaker 1: got more ceiling, I think to you, or just more
- 38:21Speaker 1: floor at the same time, So I'm not in on
- 38:24Speaker 1: Josh Naylor for this year.
- 38:27Speaker 3: Yeah, not going to disagree with you there.
- 38:29Speaker 2: I think you know, it is a decent ballpark, But
- 38:33Speaker 2: I do think Naylor is always a guy that I've questioned,
- 38:36Speaker 2: like how much of it's sustainable, And so I think
- 38:40Speaker 2: you're right here that Naylor's probably a guy that I'm
- 38:41Speaker 2: gonna be fading a little bit. I think some think
- 38:44Speaker 2: there's a ton of potential there, like it's hard to
- 38:46Speaker 2: knock him down too far, but there's gonna be other
- 38:49Speaker 2: guys at that point in the drafts where I'm either
- 38:51Speaker 2: drafted my first basement earlier, I'm drafting them late. I'm
- 38:53Speaker 2: not probably drafting them in the mid rounds where we're
- 38:55Speaker 2: Naylor's going Yeah.
- 38:56Speaker 1: Yeah, wo.
- 38:57Speaker 4: I would agree with that completely. I think, like you mentioned,
- 39:00Speaker 4: the power is going to come down to earth a
- 39:01Speaker 4: little bit and didn't hit for a great average last year.
- 39:04Speaker 4: You know, I think that will bounce back, but I
- 39:06Speaker 4: think he's more of that twenty to twenty five home
- 39:08Speaker 4: run guy than thirty plus.
- 39:10Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's move on to the Arizona prospects or
- 39:13Speaker 1: pics click here, Taylor, I'm going to pass over you.
- 39:16Speaker 1: Who do you got?
- 39:18Speaker 4: Yeah? So, as the like prospect guy here, I gotta say,
- 39:22Speaker 4: my guy's not going to help you in redraft this year.
- 39:24Speaker 4: He's quite a ways away, but a good dynasty buy
- 39:27Speaker 4: in JD.
- 39:27Speaker 3: Dix.
- 39:28Speaker 4: So he was a draft pick this year of the
- 39:31Speaker 4: Arizona Diamondbacks thirty fifth overall pick and just one of
- 39:34Speaker 4: my favorite like mid to late round first year player
- 39:38Speaker 4: draft targets. You know, FYPD six two one eight pound
- 39:41Speaker 4: prep shortstop, great hit tool, projectable power, good speed, you know,
- 39:46Speaker 4: great makeup. The only thing is is like all the
- 39:50Speaker 4: Arizona top prospects have dealt with shoulder injuries after they've
- 39:53Speaker 4: been drafted, and I feel like Arizona was like, you
- 39:56Speaker 4: know what, let's just grab a guy who already has
- 39:58Speaker 4: a shoulder injury. And that's j because he already had
- 40:02Speaker 4: a shoulder injury that required surgery. He's coming off of that.
- 40:06Speaker 4: But I've actually been compiling some first year player draft
- 40:09Speaker 4: ADP over at Prospects Live, and he's going forty eighth
- 40:13Speaker 4: overall in ADP in the nine drafts that I've logged
- 40:16Speaker 4: so far this offseason, and at Prospects Live we have
- 40:20Speaker 4: him ranked at thirty eighth. So I think there's really
- 40:22Speaker 4: really good value there. I've been grabbing him wherever I can,
- 40:25Speaker 4: and I think there's a good mix of really you know,
- 40:29Speaker 4: high ceiling and you know, while the shoulder injury causes
- 40:33Speaker 4: a little bit of concerns with the floor, you know,
- 40:35Speaker 4: when you're looking at these prep bats and what's kind
- 40:37Speaker 4: of a down class this year, I would definitely go
- 40:40Speaker 4: for ceiling, and I think JD. Dix has that at
- 40:42Speaker 4: a really good value.
- 40:44Speaker 1: That's what I like to hear prep bats that are
- 40:46Speaker 1: shortstops that have great value. Switch hitter that, Yeah, this
- 40:51Speaker 1: is why I have you on the podcast again, Taylor,
- 40:54Speaker 1: that like, this is the type of guy where even
- 40:56Speaker 1: though it is a first rounder, he kind of can
- 40:58Speaker 1: go a little bit under the radar and you've got
- 41:00Speaker 1: the beat on it. I think that's a great take.
- 41:03Speaker 2: I love I love how deep we're going that this
- 41:05Speaker 2: is just fun. I'm gonna ruin that all, by the
- 41:07Speaker 2: way with my with my pick.
- 41:08Speaker 3: But uh yeah, no, actually cool. You just disparished him
- 41:15Speaker 3: a second ago.
- 41:16Speaker 2: And I I love to go in the miners with
- 41:18Speaker 2: my picks to click my prospects. But I'm gonna I'm
- 41:20Speaker 2: gonna go with a guy. I'm gonna go with the
- 41:22Speaker 2: Quada guy, Peven Smith. I think you know Peven He
- 41:27Speaker 2: he was a top draft draft pick. He was number
- 41:29Speaker 2: seven overall back in twenty seventeen. He had like he
- 41:33Speaker 2: has been the epitome of quadae guy, Like he has
- 41:36Speaker 2: bounced between Triple A and the majors. He's always been behind,
- 41:40Speaker 2: you know, the guy like Christian Walker.
- 41:43Speaker 3: You know, it's not a great outfielder.
- 41:44Speaker 2: It's that room with d H Like there's just never
- 41:46Speaker 2: been a spot for him. And then I take my
- 41:49Speaker 2: victory lap last year I was I was so proud
- 41:52Speaker 2: of that. I posted about him as a deep sleeper
- 41:54Speaker 2: for twenty twenty five, and then later that night he
- 41:57Speaker 2: had three home runs in the game that I was
- 41:58Speaker 2: really really annoyed time because then he hit three homers
- 42:02Speaker 2: in a game.
- 42:02Speaker 3: Now I look like I can't really.
- 42:04Speaker 2: Talk about him all off season, but I'm not seeing
- 42:06Speaker 2: a whole lot come out about him. But if you
- 42:08Speaker 2: look at what he did at the end of the
- 42:10Speaker 2: season last year from Mountain mid August on when he
- 42:14Speaker 2: really got full playing time and he came back from
- 42:19Speaker 2: the miners, he had a forty eight percent hard hit rate.
- 42:24Speaker 2: He was hitting x of velocity, but between ninety one
- 42:27Speaker 2: ninety two his barrel rate was twenty percent. He was
- 42:31Speaker 2: absolutely just blistering the ball. And one of the things
- 42:34Speaker 2: I love to do is go out to Baseball Savat
- 42:35Speaker 2: and just dig through all of the guys that don't
- 42:37Speaker 2: qualify for any list, and Peven Smith's Savant page is
- 42:43Speaker 2: like blood red.
- 42:44Speaker 3: He just hammered the ball.
- 42:47Speaker 2: Yes, I get it was small sample size, I get
- 42:49Speaker 2: all those things, but it looked like whatever it was,
- 42:52Speaker 2: he figured it out. And if you look at the
- 42:54Speaker 2: kind of trajectory of even like the homers he hit
- 42:56Speaker 2: last year, he was hitting these things to like dead
- 42:58Speaker 2: center there in Arizona, like that is not an easy
- 43:01Speaker 2: place to take these things out, and so he was
- 43:03Speaker 2: absolutely on fire. He's not gonna do that all season,
- 43:07Speaker 2: I get it. But for a guy that really is
- 43:10Speaker 2: going off of the board here at pick four hundred
- 43:14Speaker 2: and fifty eight, which otherwise known as a free agent
- 43:18Speaker 2: and is supposed to be penciled in platoon. I fully
- 43:22Speaker 2: expect with with Peven Smith, but he's to be penciled
- 43:24Speaker 2: into the starting lineup. He's finally got that playing time.
- 43:26Speaker 2: I'm really excited about him because you know that when
- 43:29Speaker 2: he's in the lineup, he has the potential to do
- 43:33Speaker 2: some damage, and I just don't think people are talking
- 43:35Speaker 2: about him the way that he should. So he's not
- 43:37Speaker 2: a prospect. But at the same time, I think he's
- 43:41Speaker 2: an absolutely guy that they can click, and that's a
- 43:44Speaker 2: good lineup to be in and take advantage. So I'm
- 43:47Speaker 2: just so glad that Taylor did not say that that's
- 43:50Speaker 2: where Alec Thomas was gonna be playing earlier, because I
- 43:52Speaker 2: was gonna look like a fool if I was trying
- 43:55Speaker 2: to sell Peven Smith on the back of it.
- 43:57Speaker 1: So no, I think this is a take. I didn't
- 44:00Speaker 1: mean to disparage him too much because I'm also a
- 44:02Speaker 1: Paydan Smith truther that I think he's a great late dart.
- 44:06Speaker 1: I mean, he's going next to like Max Kepler and Andy
- 44:10Speaker 1: pat Has for crying out loud that like he actually
- 44:12Speaker 1: has shown real power, real pop. It's just a matter
- 44:16Speaker 1: of But it's also like the price in especially a redraft,
- 44:19Speaker 1: where yes, I will take that dart through all day,
- 44:21Speaker 1: but if it doesn't work, don't you know, dwell on
- 44:25Speaker 1: it too much.
- 44:27Speaker 4: Yeah, he's almost like a profile type where like he is, yes,
- 44:31Speaker 4: you know, lots of seasons of mediocrity and then he
- 44:34Speaker 4: comes out of nowhere and just posts this fantastic here
- 44:37Speaker 4: and like you mentioned, there's a lot to like about it.
- 44:39Speaker 4: So yeah, I think at his cost, like, why not
- 44:41Speaker 4: take a shot?
- 44:42Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's he's gonna be more productive than than JD.
- 44:45Speaker 3: Dix next year.
- 44:46Speaker 2: I can guarantee that, probably less productive than Corbyn Carrol.
- 44:50Speaker 2: So I feel very very well, uh that I'm in
- 44:54Speaker 2: the in.
- 44:54Speaker 1: The green here? Cool?
- 44:56Speaker 3: How about you?
- 44:57Speaker 1: All right? My pic to click here is Geno Groover.
- 45:01Speaker 1: So he is a third baseman in the DBAC system
- 45:05Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, second round pick out at n C State,
- 45:08Speaker 1: coming off a fantastic twenty twenty four. He played three
- 45:12Speaker 1: levels of ball, sixty one total games, one thirty three
- 45:15Speaker 1: WRC plus across the board with a two eighty one
- 45:19Speaker 1: three sixty seven four to seventy four slash line, and
- 45:23Speaker 1: a lot of this too is I think he's got
- 45:25Speaker 1: a shot at debuting in twenty twenty five. I mean,
- 45:28Speaker 1: it's not hard to really see a scenario where Aujarnio
- 45:32Speaker 1: Suarez turns back into that pumpkin, especially given his age,
- 45:37Speaker 1: and there's nobody standing between Groover and that third base
- 45:40Speaker 1: job except for Suarez, and so I think, especially if
- 45:43Speaker 1: you're in any dynasty leagues, uh, this is the time
- 45:47Speaker 1: to go out there and acquire Groover now while you can,
- 45:49Speaker 1: because as the season goes on, he's going to be
- 45:54Speaker 1: eminently closer to that third base job in Arizona, and
- 45:57Speaker 1: I think when it comes to opening twenty twenty six,
- 46:00Speaker 1: it's gonna be his job to lose.
- 46:03Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 46:04Speaker 4: I love this call out. I think he's awesome. My
- 46:09Speaker 4: podcast co host Kyle is like leading the Groover fan club,
- 46:13Speaker 4: so he would definitely endorse this as well. But yeah,
- 46:15Speaker 4: great call out there. I don't know if that will
- 46:17Speaker 4: see him, you know, maybe before like the end of
- 46:19Speaker 4: the year, but like you mentioned, if there's a need,
- 46:22Speaker 4: he's kind of the best third basement in the high
- 46:25Speaker 4: miners there for them, unless you consider you know, Lawler
- 46:30Speaker 4: to be a third baseman there, so we'll see what happens.
- 46:32Speaker 4: But yeah, I it's a great call up.
- 46:34Speaker 2: And if you're sitting behind a guy at the major
- 46:36Speaker 2: league level, it's behind you. Henrioswuorrez is the guy you
- 46:39Speaker 2: want to be sitting behind a guy with that type
- 46:42Speaker 2: of profile because it can go south in a hurry,
- 46:45Speaker 2: and when it goes south, you will know it went
- 46:47Speaker 2: south like that's that's the kind of guy that is.
- 46:50Speaker 2: He can be great for a while and then it's
- 46:51Speaker 2: gonna be absolute dreadful for a while. So yeah, I've
- 46:55Speaker 2: met with you. I don't know that we'll see him
- 46:58Speaker 2: next year, but maybe maybe a couple off at the
- 47:00Speaker 2: end of the season.
- 47:01Speaker 1: All right, Okay, well that will wrap up the Dbacks.
- 47:04Speaker 1: Let's move on to the Colorado Rockies, who are continuing
- 47:08Speaker 1: to be the Colorado Rockies. It has been quite the
- 47:11Speaker 1: off season, as you know. They've made huge moves like
- 47:15Speaker 1: bringing back Kevin Stallings. I just said Kevin Stallings. That's
- 47:19Speaker 1: his father, who actually Jacob Stallings. This is a bit
- 47:23Speaker 1: of a side tangent for the Bloomington normal folks here
- 47:27Speaker 1: in the crowd from Central Allinois. Kevin Songings used to
- 47:30Speaker 1: be the Illinois state head coach. We went to grade
- 47:33Speaker 1: school with Jacob Stallings, so we've seen him back in
- 47:36Speaker 1: the day. So it's really fun just kind of seeing
- 47:39Speaker 1: his name penciled in where he is. Also, I mean,
- 47:43Speaker 1: he's thirty five, but he's emblematic of what the Rockies
- 47:46Speaker 1: have done in terms of holding back their prospects and
- 47:49Speaker 1: just kind of continuing to toil along.
- 47:52Speaker 3: So this is.
- 47:53Speaker 1: Also I think one of the most intriguing teams for fantasy.
- 47:56Speaker 1: Obviously you have the Coors Field of factor, but because
- 48:00Speaker 1: you can't touch any of the pictures except for maybe
- 48:02Speaker 1: an N only league, and even then I don't like
- 48:04Speaker 1: to touch them, you are always chasing these bats. Great
- 48:08Speaker 1: fodder for my piece every week on the Waiver Wire Report,
- 48:11Speaker 1: especially now that the Rockies have these schedules where I
- 48:15Speaker 1: love taking advantage of where they do a week in
- 48:17Speaker 1: Coors essentially then a week out and you can try
- 48:20Speaker 1: to stream that. That. That's why I think there's lots
- 48:24Speaker 1: of interesting bats here. But Taylor, I'm gonna pass.
- 48:26Speaker 3: It over to you first.
- 48:27Speaker 1: Who is your buye from the Colorado Rockies.
- 48:30Speaker 4: Yeah, so my diamondback Spy was kind of a young outfielder.
- 48:33Speaker 4: I'm going to continue the trend in the Rockies here
- 48:35Speaker 4: with Jordan Beck. Right now, he's a short side platoon
- 48:39Speaker 4: on roster resource with Nolan Jones and left field, but
- 48:42Speaker 4: if you look at right field there it's Sam Hilliard,
- 48:46Speaker 4: who you know, his career is thirty four percent, strikeout
- 48:49Speaker 4: rate thirty five percent last year, And it would be
- 48:52Speaker 4: the most Rockies thing ever to finally play Sam Hilliard
- 48:56Speaker 4: when he's in his thirties, when they refuse to play
- 48:59Speaker 4: him in kept blocking him with veterans back in his
- 49:02Speaker 4: twenties when all the fantasy players wanted to see Sam Hilliard.
- 49:05Speaker 4: So I wouldn't put it past the Rockies to do that.
- 49:08Speaker 4: But I don't see how they can justify playing Sam
- 49:11Speaker 4: Hilliard all year. And I think the beneficiary of that
- 49:14Speaker 4: is going to be Jordan Beck right now. He's going
- 49:16Speaker 4: four hundred and seventy six in January NFBC ADP. You know,
- 49:21Speaker 4: I think he could win that job out of spring training.
- 49:23Speaker 4: He could play right phil. He has the arm for it.
- 49:25Speaker 4: It was a bad debut last year. He struggled to
- 49:27Speaker 4: make quality contact. He fractured his hand in May. You know,
- 49:32Speaker 4: returned in August, continued to struggle. Did not have good
- 49:35Speaker 4: x velocities last year, but showed good raw power with
- 49:38Speaker 4: eleven I'm sorry, won eleven point five. Max Ev was
- 49:42Speaker 4: much better in Triple A. In forty two games he
- 49:44Speaker 4: slashed three nineteen, four h two five fifty eight with
- 49:46Speaker 4: eight home runs at six dolen basis, So that shows
- 49:48Speaker 4: you a little bit of his power speed upside. He
- 49:51Speaker 4: had eleven point five percent walk rate in twenty two
- 49:53Speaker 4: point five percent k rate in Triple A. There really
- 49:56Speaker 4: good x velocities, really good barrel and hard hit rate.
- 50:00Speaker 4: And again another guy with pedigree. He was the thirty
- 50:02Speaker 4: eighth overall pick in twenty twenty two. He went twenty
- 50:05Speaker 4: five home runs twenty stolen bases in the miners in
- 50:07Speaker 4: twenty twenty three and still just twenty three years old.
- 50:10Speaker 4: I don't see why he's not going higher in drafts
- 50:13Speaker 4: right now.
- 50:14Speaker 1: Yeah, I love this pick. I took him in my
- 50:17Speaker 1: fifty round draft and hold recently because of all this stuff,
- 50:20Speaker 1: like the pathway for playing time in Colorado is there
- 50:24Speaker 1: for Beck, And.
- 50:26Speaker 2: I'm so glad you called out the one problem with
- 50:28Speaker 2: Jordan Beck is not Jordan Beck.
- 50:30Speaker 3: It's the Colorado Rockies.
- 50:32Speaker 2: Like this feels like every other Rockies prospect that's been
- 50:36Speaker 2: like just good enough to make the list is well,
- 50:39Speaker 2: he's five tool guy, all these kind of things. We
- 50:42Speaker 2: just kind of make sure that we give him enough
- 50:43Speaker 2: time to fully develop and then they bury him in
- 50:45Speaker 2: the roster for three years. So if it wasn't for that,
- 50:48Speaker 2: I feel like you'd even higher discussion.
- 50:50Speaker 3: But I'm with you.
- 50:51Speaker 2: When he got called up last year, you look at
- 50:53Speaker 2: the profile, I'm like, why why are we not buying
- 50:55Speaker 2: this guy? And injuries of the thing you know, it
- 50:57Speaker 2: did didn't work out. But I'm right there with you.
- 51:01Speaker 2: There's a lot a lot to like with Jordan Beck
- 51:04Speaker 2: and playing that thin and air of Colorado Like somebody's
- 51:07Speaker 2: bound to do it?
- 51:08Speaker 3: Why not Jordan Beck?
- 51:10Speaker 1: Yeah? All right, brew who's your picker here for the
- 51:13Speaker 1: bye in Colorado?
- 51:14Speaker 2: Well, this is a guy I've been I've been talking
- 51:16Speaker 2: about pretty much all off season, and a lot of
- 51:18Speaker 2: others I think I have started to pick up on
- 51:19Speaker 2: this train too. So it's I don't think it's a
- 51:21Speaker 2: it's a shocker. Uh, We're gonna be talking about first
- 51:24Speaker 2: baseman Michael Toglia.
- 51:27Speaker 3: He is I think It's an easy kind of pick
- 51:29Speaker 3: as far as a buy here with the Rockies.
- 51:33Speaker 2: Uh, last year I did, I was looking at doing
- 51:36Speaker 2: an article on Brent Rooker and figuring out trying figure
- 51:39Speaker 2: out who's the next Brett Brooker.
- 51:41Speaker 3: And you know, the things you look for is.
- 51:43Speaker 2: A guy with power, guy with sneaky speed, like not
- 51:46Speaker 2: actually necessarily speed, but it seems how somehow steal the bases,
- 51:50Speaker 2: but then just strikes out way too much. Like that
- 51:52Speaker 2: was that was the profile of Brett Rooker coming into
- 51:54Speaker 2: the last year. And if you look at totally like
- 51:57Speaker 2: all of those things apply, he just has a strikeout
- 51:59Speaker 2: problem and he hammers the ball. He absolutely somehow uses
- 52:06Speaker 2: kind of league average speed to pitch in ten bases
- 52:09Speaker 2: across one hundred.
- 52:09Speaker 3: And sixteen games last year. And so I think this.
- 52:13Speaker 2: Is the kind of guy that absolutely could go two
- 52:16Speaker 2: fifty thirty five steel fifteen bases in Colorado. So I
- 52:23Speaker 2: think with where he's going right now, he is the
- 52:25Speaker 2: third Rocky off the board. But that's like complementing the
- 52:28Speaker 2: White Sox being drafted. It's not really saying much. He's
- 52:31Speaker 2: going to pick one seventy eight overall for the Rockies,
- 52:36Speaker 2: And you know, that's not from a first base perspective.
- 52:40Speaker 2: That's the sixteenth first basement off the board that's in
- 52:44Speaker 2: the Paul Goldschmidt, Lewis Rise if you want to call
- 52:48Speaker 2: him a first baseman, Yandy Diaz Ces Mountain Castle.
- 52:53Speaker 3: Realm. Like, to me, totally is head and shoulders. Those guys.
- 52:58Speaker 2: We should be talking about it with a Christin Cossas,
- 53:00Speaker 2: Jake Berger Sminster Steer Tier about four or five rounds earlier.
- 53:04Speaker 3: So I think there's a lot for totallyo.
- 53:06Speaker 2: It's one thing that he really has to work on,
- 53:08Speaker 2: cutting the strikeouts, being patient, and I really do think
- 53:11Speaker 2: that he's gonna he's gonna do that this year. So
- 53:14Speaker 2: uh might might be a guy that's out there a
- 53:15Speaker 2: lot in the industry, but I'll be on the bandwagon.
- 53:18Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is a pro totally podcast. We
- 53:21Speaker 1: seem to talk about him like every few weeks. Taylor,
- 53:24Speaker 1: what's your take on Tolio here? Because I know he
- 53:25Speaker 1: can be divisive. I was listening Rays and Barrels was
- 53:28Speaker 1: dogging on him this week, But I'm I'm a little
- 53:33Speaker 1: bit more here on Jeremy side. Just like the price,
- 53:34Speaker 1: the Colorado of it all, I'll take the strikeouts.
- 53:38Speaker 4: Yeah, you'll have to wait till the next segment to
- 53:41Speaker 4: hear what I have to say about taking I might
- 53:43Speaker 4: not invited back on this podcast. Sorry, guys, I.
- 53:47Speaker 1: Mean you can do it right now. What's your sall?
- 53:50Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 53:52Speaker 4: Agree with the power, like huge, huge power. And I
- 53:54Speaker 4: do love the the Brent Rooker call out there because
- 53:57Speaker 4: I think that's what you're hoping for, right.
- 53:59Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 53:59Speaker 4: Rooker was I'll be honest, Broker was a guy I
- 54:01Speaker 4: did not believe in him at the start of last
- 54:03Speaker 4: season because I'm like, the strikeouts are too much, He's
- 54:05Speaker 4: not going to put it all together. That was a
- 54:07Speaker 4: mirage in twenty twenty three, and then granted I was wrong,
- 54:09Speaker 4: So maybe I have a hole for my analysis of
- 54:12Speaker 4: this type of player. But the contact is just so bad,
- 54:15Speaker 4: Like it's not just the strikeouts, it's you know, the
- 54:19Speaker 4: whiff rate. The fact that he had thirty two point
- 54:21Speaker 4: one percent strikeout rate last year and that was his
- 54:24Speaker 4: best career strikeout rate is kind of scary. He has
- 54:27Speaker 4: a long history of terrible contact rates and high k
- 54:30Speaker 4: rates in the minors and you look at the two
- 54:32Speaker 4: eighteen average last year, that's again another career high. Like
- 54:37Speaker 4: if he plays all year. He can definitely hit more
- 54:40Speaker 4: than thirty home runs, but what is going to be
- 54:42Speaker 4: the cost in batting average there? And then are the
- 54:45Speaker 4: Rockies going to give him that amount of runway to
- 54:49Speaker 4: do that? Now? They've shown, you know, a willingness to
- 54:52Speaker 4: play players in the past that have had really high
- 54:55Speaker 4: k rates, so you know, maybe they would do that,
- 54:57Speaker 4: but he's not a good defender, and kind of looking
- 55:00Speaker 4: at the first base pool, you know, you mentioned some
- 55:03Speaker 4: of the guys going around him, but like he's going
- 55:06Speaker 4: at I think I have him an ADP of one
- 55:08Speaker 4: to seventy five. Like I'd rather wait and get like
- 55:10Speaker 4: Tyler Soderstrom at two eighty seven, because I think what
- 55:14Speaker 4: you're gonna get is gonna be very similar. And I
- 55:17Speaker 4: would rather take guys like Cees and you know, Michael
- 55:20Speaker 4: Bush and those kind of guys over him as well,
- 55:22Speaker 4: because I just I don't buy the hit tool. So
- 55:26Speaker 4: that's why I'm against you guys there, I think. And
- 55:29Speaker 4: you're not kicked off yet. We'll see as we go on.
- 55:32Speaker 2: But I think that the good news is, like you
- 55:35Speaker 2: you're actually agreeing with exact sameon else as I have,
- 55:37Speaker 2: is that it comes down to the hit tool. Do
- 55:39Speaker 2: you think he can he can solve that and improve,
- 55:42Speaker 2: because if he can't, he's exactly where you say, if
- 55:44Speaker 2: he can't these where I say, it comes down to
- 55:47Speaker 2: does he do that?
- 55:48Speaker 3: And I think that's uh.
- 55:49Speaker 2: And I was also a b Britt Rooker guy going
- 55:51Speaker 2: into last year, and so maybe I have a soft
- 55:54Speaker 2: spot for the guys that strike out too much and
- 55:56Speaker 2: seems steel bases but are slow. I don't know, but
- 55:58Speaker 2: I think that that is You're absolutely right, like that
- 56:01Speaker 2: is the challenge here with Totally. If he figures that
- 56:04Speaker 2: piece out, it could be really really good. If he doesn't,
- 56:09Speaker 2: it could be really really bad. And so I'm buying
- 56:11Speaker 2: the upside here. I do find it kind of ironic
- 56:14Speaker 2: that he goes off the board, like in the same
- 56:16Speaker 2: round of Luis Arayah's, which is like you're talking like
- 56:20Speaker 2: ninety nine hundred percentile contact and then Totally of which
- 56:24Speaker 2: is like three percentile contacts. So maybe you just drop
- 56:28Speaker 2: both of those guys and they somehow rub off on
- 56:30Speaker 2: each other. I think that's like a clubhouse thing and
- 56:32Speaker 2: fantasy game, right, they just spend time with each other,
- 56:34Speaker 2: they learn. Yeah, I'm very much a guy about the
- 56:37Speaker 2: clubhouse atmosphere on my fantasy teams.
- 56:40Speaker 1: All right, well that was Michael Tolia talk here, and
- 56:44Speaker 1: I mean this is it's kind of funny that you
- 56:46Speaker 1: got into that conversation on him here with the Rockies,
- 56:49Speaker 1: because honestly, I think you can have this sort of
- 56:51Speaker 1: argument with all these guys where like the Rockies of
- 56:54Speaker 1: it is such a haze and all of them strike
- 56:58Speaker 1: out too much, all of them have awful played approaches.
- 57:00Speaker 1: And I'm also going to get into that bucket. I'm
- 57:01Speaker 1: picking Hunter Goodman catcher slash outfielder just because I don't
- 57:06Speaker 1: see how Kevin Stalling I did. Again, Jacob Stellings sticks
- 57:11Speaker 1: with this job like he's so ancient. They've gotta what
- 57:15Speaker 1: are they doing? Like what are you doing in Colorado?
- 57:19Speaker 1: Like why would you not play Hunter Goodman, your cross
- 57:21Speaker 1: controlled young catcher and just give it a shot, Give
- 57:25Speaker 1: it a shot, let it see what happens. The nice
- 57:28Speaker 1: thing here in Colorado two is the corners are a
- 57:32Speaker 1: mess between like the outfield first base and first in
- 57:37Speaker 1: third base two and dh that like there's lots of
- 57:40Speaker 1: little spots where Goodman can pick up at bats and
- 57:44Speaker 1: the the betting average is not going to be great.
- 57:47Speaker 1: Like I think if you get something that is even
- 57:49Speaker 1: two ten, you're lucky. But essentially like you're looking at
- 57:52Speaker 1: like a Mike Xenino Zenino in Colorado with a draft
- 57:57Speaker 1: position of a three fourteen average pick. So I think
- 58:02Speaker 1: he's a great like upside play for a second catcher,
- 58:05Speaker 1: and especially like if you need that extra pop up power,
- 58:08Speaker 1: a little bit extra accounting stats that this is a
- 58:11Speaker 1: catcher who will get a little bit of extra run
- 58:14Speaker 1: compared to your other catcher twos that are out there.
- 58:19Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the only concern I have with Goodman
- 58:21Speaker 2: is he's not a good catcher. But it doesn't seem
- 58:25Speaker 2: that the Rockies seem to really care about those types
- 58:26Speaker 2: of things. Yeah, exactly, so it might it might just
- 58:29Speaker 2: be Okay, I think, you know, Goodman's gonna be an
- 58:32Speaker 2: interesting guy. He has shown some of that ability in
- 58:36Speaker 2: the minors, shown some of that power.
- 58:39Speaker 3: Stallings. Is he gonna be that? Is it gonna be
- 58:42Speaker 3: good Man?
- 58:42Speaker 2: I don't really know, But if I have to pick
- 58:45Speaker 2: the two, I think Goodman has the better potential, which
- 58:47Speaker 2: just means the Rockies clearly you're not gonna play him.
- 58:50Speaker 4: Yeah, I do like No, I love the call out.
- 58:53Speaker 4: I think he's kind of a slept on guy. And
- 58:56Speaker 4: you know, the contact it was not that bad, and
- 59:00Speaker 4: particularly in the upper miners, you know, he was okay
- 59:02Speaker 4: in that regard. I don't think he's gonna you know,
- 59:05Speaker 4: strike out thirty five percent of the time or anything.
- 59:07Speaker 4: And it's just a matter, you know, like you said, Brewer,
- 59:09Speaker 4: of like where where is he going to go? Are
- 59:12Speaker 4: the Rockies going to play him? The defensive liabilities are
- 59:15Speaker 4: a concern, but he can play, you know, some outfield,
- 59:18Speaker 4: he can play you know a little bit of everywhere,
- 59:21Speaker 4: first base maybe if if I'm right about Toglia, So
- 59:24Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of value to be gained there.
- 59:27Speaker 1: All right, Well, Taylor, we already got your cell here.
- 59:30Speaker 1: So brew who's your self.
- 59:32Speaker 2: Yeah, it's kind of hard to sell on a team
- 59:34Speaker 2: that has like one top one hundred draft pick, and
- 59:36Speaker 2: so I just decided to sell the entire rotation in bullpen.
- 59:40Speaker 2: And just like I'm and I feel like it's a
- 59:42Speaker 2: cop out because I actually do kind of like sell
- 59:44Speaker 2: Seth Halverson in the in the back of that bullpen,
- 59:47Speaker 2: like kind of uh, if he wasn't pitching in Colorado.
- 59:51Speaker 2: But I look at that and I go like, there's
- 59:54Speaker 2: literally nobody that pitches for the Rockies. Like it feels
- 59:58Speaker 2: like in he was past, there's at least been like
- 59:59Speaker 2: one guy that like, man if if I can just
- 1:00:01Speaker 2: like pick my spots and like platoon a pitcher type
- 1:00:03Speaker 2: of thing and playing only in the way games, Like,
- 1:00:06Speaker 2: there is not a single guy there that I have
- 1:00:08Speaker 2: any interest at whatsoever of picking. And that probably goes
- 1:00:13Speaker 2: to the fact that the top two pitchers being drafted
- 1:00:17Speaker 2: are Seth Halverson and Tyler Kenny, guys that they might
- 1:00:20Speaker 2: be the closer, and they start being drafted a pick
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: four hundred and sixty.
- 1:00:26Speaker 1: So so you see, did you see the ADP when
- 1:00:29Speaker 1: their first starting pitcher is going and who it is?
- 1:00:32Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, I wasn't going to get into my prospects,
- 1:00:37Speaker 2: but I we could go there. But yeah, Chase Dollander
- 1:00:41Speaker 2: is the is the first pitcher going off the board
- 1:00:43Speaker 2: for them, does not a job, even have a job,
- 1:00:45Speaker 2: and shouldn't have the job because he's still he's still
- 1:00:49Speaker 2: some work to do, but has Like if there is
- 1:00:51Speaker 2: a guy to pick from the Rockies that is a pitcher, uh,
- 1:00:54Speaker 2: it is Chase Dollander.
- 1:00:56Speaker 3: I think he has a ton of potential.
- 1:00:57Speaker 2: Literally, if he wasn't pitching for the Rockies, he probably
- 1:01:00Speaker 2: five spots higher on everybody's starting pitching rankings. Like, I
- 1:01:04Speaker 2: think he has a top five arm in the miners,
- 1:01:07Speaker 2: but it's just not in the top five situation or
- 1:01:09Speaker 2: top twenty nine situations that you'd want to be in.
- 1:01:12Speaker 2: So that fast forwarding, my prospect picked to click was
- 1:01:16Speaker 2: gonna be Chase Dollander just because of that. There's literally
- 1:01:19Speaker 2: nothing standing in his way, literally nothing standing in his way,
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: and it just it cut's rough to be pitching for
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: the Rockies.
- 1:01:29Speaker 3: So I'm some the entire rotation.
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: I'm buying apparently everybody in the miners for the Rockies
- 1:01:34Speaker 2: from the Miners just because they're not pitching in Colorado.
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I think that's great. I love Dollander, Taylor,
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: what do you think, like especially in considering I think
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: you're in a lot more like dynasty leagues that are
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: really active in the off season compared to us, And
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: so is this somebody you would be trying to acquire
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: here in the off season, just kind of knowing that
- 1:01:54Speaker 1: maybe his price is muted by the Colorado of it all.
- 1:01:58Speaker 4: Yeah, He's been a for me because I have to
- 1:02:00Speaker 4: rank prospects, and I never know what to do with
- 1:02:03Speaker 4: Dolander because it's like if he, like, if he was
- 1:02:06Speaker 4: on any other team, he'd be like, like you mentioned,
- 1:02:09Speaker 4: for a top five prospect, if not the number one
- 1:02:11Speaker 4: pitching prospect, Like he's that good. But we just have
- 1:02:15Speaker 4: such a long history of Colorado just eating up pictures
- 1:02:19Speaker 4: and spitting them out, and it's already like pitching prospects.
- 1:02:23Speaker 4: You know, you guys have heard of ten Staff. I'm
- 1:02:24Speaker 4: sure there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. They're
- 1:02:27Speaker 4: already super high risk, and then you layer on the
- 1:02:29Speaker 4: Colorado effect on top of that. I think he's by
- 1:02:32Speaker 4: far the best pitcher in Colorado, and I would take
- 1:02:34Speaker 4: him over any of these guys. But I think you
- 1:02:37Speaker 4: have to figure out, like how much faith do you
- 1:02:39Speaker 4: put in a young pitcher going to Colorado. I don't
- 1:02:42Speaker 4: have a lot of faith, so I probably am not
- 1:02:44Speaker 4: buying him necessarily, but there is huge upside there, and
- 1:02:47Speaker 4: if anyone's gonna beat Goersfield, it's going to be Dolander.
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: I think he's actually the kind of guy that if you,
- 1:02:53Speaker 2: I would say, happen to him like I'm probably dynastag
- 1:02:57Speaker 2: he's gone. Right at this point, he's not available, but
- 1:03:00Speaker 2: he's the kind of guy that I think you could
- 1:03:02Speaker 2: pick up Layton drafts in like a redraft league, and
- 1:03:05Speaker 2: he gets hot in the miners and he gets called
- 1:03:07Speaker 2: up like he's trade fodder. U. That is absolutely what
- 1:03:11Speaker 2: you use Chase Dollander for, because he's right, I don't
- 1:03:14Speaker 2: want to deal with that. He gets called up and
- 1:03:16Speaker 2: he takes like two games on the on the road,
- 1:03:18Speaker 2: and it's like, look at this, he's keeping them all
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: on the ground.
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: This is great.
- 1:03:20Speaker 3: Like that's to me.
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: I play the economics of fantasy almost as much as
- 1:03:24Speaker 2: the players, and so I actually see that as the
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: value of Chase Dolander is not the play of Chase Dolander.
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: It's the fact that somebody's gonna see that potential and
- 1:03:35Speaker 2: forget for just a second that he's pitching in Colorado.
- 1:03:37Speaker 2: And when he gets that call up, they'll look at
- 1:03:39Speaker 2: those minor stats. He'll get one or two games where
- 1:03:41Speaker 2: he does show some crazy movement and things like that,
- 1:03:43Speaker 2: and people are be like, this is this is the
- 1:03:46Speaker 2: first guy since my Campton to be able to figure
- 1:03:48Speaker 2: out the right Colorado and that that's probably saying too
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: much about my Campton and going way too wear back
- 1:03:55Speaker 2: in history. But I think he's the most valuable rock
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: and it's not by a small amount.
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: All right, Well, we're gonna rewind a little bit to
- 1:04:06Speaker 1: get to myself. I actually I was a little bit
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: in nearboat to Jeremy where I was just like, I
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: wasn't sure like who to sell here, because I think
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: there's lots of great buying opportunities for bats given how
- 1:04:17Speaker 1: late the ADPs are on the Rockies. But even given
- 1:04:20Speaker 1: all that, I think I have to put the cell
- 1:04:22Speaker 1: label here on Nolan Jones going around like pick to
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: fifty five ish, And part of it is just like
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: I want more from him. You look at the the
- 1:04:34Speaker 1: actual kind of like projections, they're just not very exciting
- 1:04:39Speaker 1: in terms of somebody who last year, you know, we
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: were talking about like what like a third or fourth
- 1:04:43Speaker 1: rounder who was really a hot commodity. I think the
- 1:04:47Speaker 1: back injuries that he's gone through has really sapped a
- 1:04:50Speaker 1: lot more than people want to give him credit for.
- 1:04:52Speaker 1: You look at just the ground ball rates from both
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: the majors and the miners last year. Again the caveat
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: that he was injured in like rehabbing when he was
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: doing a lot of this. But you know in twenty
- 1:05:05Speaker 1: twenty three when he had that great kind of breakout
- 1:05:08Speaker 1: for Colorado, he was putting up around like a forty
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: two percent ground ball rate. And in the miners with
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: and even in the majors with the Guardians, there is
- 1:05:22Speaker 1: like at thirty five percent. It really flipped the wrong way.
- 1:05:26Speaker 1: Last year, you know, it was fifty two percent for Colorado.
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: It was around the upper forties in the miners. And
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: so you're looking at a player who I mean, if
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: you're looking for a power bat, you don't want him
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: to be hitting it on the ground half the time
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: or more. And so I just don't think that like
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: the bounce back is really there for Nolan Jones. And
- 1:05:46Speaker 1: uh it's kind of sad because I think there is
- 1:05:50Speaker 1: something too, just like Colorado and kind of cheaping out
- 1:05:54Speaker 1: on a lot of areas on their team, and one
- 1:05:55Speaker 1: of it is like the medical advances, especially given the
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: issues that they have with the altitude. And so yeah,
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: I just I don't see it coming back for Nolan
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: Jones personally that I think not only am I selling
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: him in redrafts, but anywhere where you've got kind of
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: keeper and dynasty prospects related to him. I need Nolan
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: Jones to show it to me again before I buy
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: back in.
- 1:06:20Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's fair. I was pretty much out
- 1:06:24Speaker 4: on him, and then I inherited him on an orphan
- 1:06:27Speaker 4: team this offseason, so then I had to talk myself
- 1:06:29Speaker 4: into him. If you've ever had an orphan you might
- 1:06:31Speaker 4: know how that goes. But like, I agree, like I
- 1:06:35Speaker 4: kind of want to give him a pass for last
- 1:06:36Speaker 4: year because of the injuries. But at the same time,
- 1:06:38Speaker 4: like he was already a risky profile and now he's
- 1:06:41Speaker 4: even more risky, So I'm not drafting him in redraft
- 1:06:45Speaker 4: or targeting him. I think he's You're not getting enough
- 1:06:47Speaker 4: of a discount for that risk.
- 1:06:49Speaker 1: All right, Well, we'll good and go back to you,
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: Taylor though for your prospect pick to click here in Colorado.
- 1:06:55Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'm gonna go with Cole Kerrig. So he
- 1:06:58Speaker 4: was the sixty fifth overall pick in twenty twenty three.
- 1:07:01Speaker 4: Six ' to two two hundred pounds switch hitting out fielder.
- 1:07:05Speaker 4: Just a crazy year last year in High A one
- 1:07:08Speaker 4: hundred and eleven games, slash two eighty three, fifty eight
- 1:07:10Speaker 4: four to seventy five, sixteen home runs fifty one stolen bases.
- 1:07:14Speaker 4: He makes great contact, just a nineteen percent k rate,
- 1:07:17Speaker 4: does a little bit of everything. So he played shortstop
- 1:07:19Speaker 4: in center field last year. The year before he played catcher.
- 1:07:24Speaker 4: I think the biggest knock on him is he just
- 1:07:25Speaker 4: hasn't done it the high levels of the miners. He
- 1:07:27Speaker 4: was a little old for Hia. But if he hits
- 1:07:29Speaker 4: the ground running at double A this year, his stock
- 1:07:31Speaker 4: is going to absolutely sore. And we're talking about bove
- 1:07:34Speaker 4: average hit tool at least average power. He's a plus runner,
- 1:07:37Speaker 4: also a great fielder. I mean, there's nothing not to
- 1:07:40Speaker 4: like other than we just haven't seen it at double
- 1:07:42Speaker 4: air higher.
- 1:07:43Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree that. Yeah, this is a guy
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: that he can go like twenty forty in Colorado. Wow,
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: look out, uh okay, my pick to click. It's a
- 1:07:57Speaker 1: personal and cheese ball. I'm never gonna quit him. It's
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: jan Keel for Anandez. I love him too much that like,
- 1:08:03Speaker 1: I mean, we just spent all of this Colorado Rockies
- 1:08:06Speaker 1: time denigrating all their corner bats. That there's such an
- 1:08:11Speaker 1: easy pathway for yan Kill to rise through the rest
- 1:08:13Speaker 1: of this system, be able to get up into Colorado
- 1:08:17Speaker 1: and yes, I know he's not a great fielder. I
- 1:08:20Speaker 1: know the plate approach is brutal, that he chases everything,
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: but you can't deny that he's actually produced results like
- 1:08:28Speaker 1: with that approach throughout the miners. And he's also been
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: so young when he's been coming through all of his
- 1:08:34Speaker 1: minor league stops that he was twenty one years old
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: last year in Triple A. He also has this really
- 1:08:40Speaker 1: kind of insane track record of once he sees a level,
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: he struggles really bad repeats it comes back, makes adjustments
- 1:08:48Speaker 1: to be able to conquer that level, and he's done
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: that time and again throughout his just minor league career
- 1:08:54Speaker 1: that I think once he gets back into Triple A
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: this year, he's gonna find that love of comfort in
- 1:09:01Speaker 1: terms of being able to readjust to the new environment.
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: And then he's one stop away from Colorado and at
- 1:09:08Speaker 1: that point, like I think, this the sky's kind of
- 1:09:11Speaker 1: the limit. Like I'm not gonna lie that this is
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: an awful baseball player. It's almost like the Michael totally
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: like a conversation that we just had that he's got
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: no defensive value, an awful plate approach, but like if
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: there's any team that's gonna give him a shot, and
- 1:09:26Speaker 1: especially from a fantasy perspective where you're looking at like,
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: man if I could get eighty games of yan Kiel
- 1:09:31Speaker 1: Fernandez in Coors Field, just like Mash and Tators, I
- 1:09:35Speaker 1: think now is the time to buy and keep her
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: in dynasty leagues, especially because people have really been low
- 1:09:41Speaker 1: on him after that triple A performance over threey three
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: games to end twenty twenty four.
- 1:09:48Speaker 3: I think I have to call you on this one.
- 1:09:49Speaker 3: I think you just gotta let it go.
- 1:09:52Speaker 1: Let it go, not until he's like twenty five. You
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: gotta give me until he's like twenty five. I get
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: a couple more years of this, right the argument.
- 1:10:00Speaker 2: I understand that he's got a lot of things he's
- 1:10:03Speaker 2: got to figure out, and then you got the Rockies
- 1:10:05Speaker 2: of it all, So I'll give you credit. This isn't
- 1:10:07Speaker 2: the Rockies part of the segments. We can dismiss that.
- 1:10:10Speaker 2: But he's still got a little you can dream. I'll
- 1:10:13Speaker 2: give you the dream.
- 1:10:14Speaker 3: Yes, Yeah, I'm torn on him.
- 1:10:16Speaker 4: Like I remember, everybody was super over the moon about
- 1:10:20Speaker 4: him like early twenty twenty three until he got to
- 1:10:21Speaker 4: double A and then last year he actually made some
- 1:10:25Speaker 4: contact games. It gets overshotoed a little bit with just
- 1:10:29Speaker 4: his poor performance and triple A there, but I don't know.
- 1:10:32Speaker 4: He's another guy where like it could go either way.
- 1:10:34Speaker 4: There's definitely some risk there, but the price in Dynasty
- 1:10:37Speaker 4: right now is probably as cheap as it's ever been.
- 1:10:40Speaker 4: So if you believe in him, then yeah, take a shot,
- 1:10:42Speaker 4: because there's some deafine ups right there.
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: Yep, And that's that's exactly what I'm focused on. So
- 1:10:47Speaker 1: yan Keel, love you forever, Bud. You're always going to
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: be a part of my heart. So all right, let's
- 1:10:53Speaker 1: move on to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Here. I'm not
- 1:10:56Speaker 1: even sure if I need much of an introduction to
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: coming off of the World Series win in twenty twenty four,
- 1:11:01Speaker 1: they have an absolute super team. Every free agent has
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: signed with them. They're going to cause a twenty twenty
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: six lockout when everyone demands a salary cap on this team,
- 1:11:11Speaker 1: and whoever inherits this ownership in twenty years, good luck.
- 1:11:19Speaker 1: So Taylor can have passed it right over to you.
- 1:11:21Speaker 1: I know that you're gonna view this team a little
- 1:11:23Speaker 1: bit through a different lens as a Giants fan, so
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: I hope that you can you know, direct that hatred
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: in the right place here with your picks. Who is
- 1:11:33Speaker 1: going to be your bye from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- 1:11:36Speaker 4: I will I will admit it was really hard for
- 1:11:38Speaker 4: me to pick a bye because I just want to
- 1:11:39Speaker 4: sell all these guys.
- 1:11:42Speaker 3: I will say.
- 1:11:43Speaker 4: You know, I think Berer mentioned it earlier. He kind
- 1:11:46Speaker 4: of denigrated Andy Payes and that's my that's my buye.
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: Okay, that that wasn't me.
- 1:11:53Speaker 3: Let's be very clear. That was not me. That was Coolly.
- 1:11:55Speaker 1: Okay.
- 1:11:56Speaker 2: Sorry, I might not have disagreed, but I didn't say
- 1:11:58Speaker 2: it out loud. I threw you on the bus for
- 1:12:01Speaker 2: Cooley's things.
- 1:12:02Speaker 4: But yeah, I just think, like I love investing in
- 1:12:07Speaker 4: guys who you know, are not starting on roster resource
- 1:12:10Speaker 4: right because the values is going to be depressed. I
- 1:12:12Speaker 4: think a lot of people look at the signing of
- 1:12:14Speaker 4: Haisong Kim, they look at Michael Conforto, you know, Teoscar
- 1:12:18Speaker 4: Hernandez is back, and they say Andy po Has doesn't
- 1:12:20Speaker 4: have a place. He's not gonna fit right now. He's
- 1:12:22Speaker 4: listen to a short sight platoon bat. But he debuted
- 1:12:25Speaker 4: last year after just twenty five career games in Triple A,
- 1:12:28Speaker 4: and he held his own at the major league level. Like, yeah,
- 1:12:31Speaker 4: he had some ups and downs, but he posted an
- 1:12:34Speaker 4: average over two sixty and eight hundred plus ops in
- 1:12:37Speaker 4: like four months April, June, August, and September. You know,
- 1:12:40Speaker 4: he got sent down after July slump, but then returned
- 1:12:44Speaker 4: in September and hit two sixty seven with four home
- 1:12:46Speaker 4: runs in his last eighteen games, had two home runs
- 1:12:49Speaker 4: in eight games in the postseason.
- 1:12:50Speaker 3: Two.
- 1:12:51Speaker 4: And the Dodgers have the flexibility to move players around.
- 1:12:55Speaker 4: You know, I think Andy po Has can find a
- 1:12:58Speaker 4: role in that outfield if he can hit. He can
- 1:13:00Speaker 4: also play a passable center field too. And you look
- 1:13:03Speaker 4: at you know who's listed their centerfielder right now, Tommy
- 1:13:06Speaker 4: Edmond Edmund can move into the infield. You know, Hasan
- 1:13:10Speaker 4: Kim is listed as kind of that second base platoon bat,
- 1:13:13Speaker 4: but we don't really know what he is or what
- 1:13:15Speaker 4: he's gonna do. And again, if if Pies can hit,
- 1:13:19Speaker 4: you know, he he could have that role. He's not
- 1:13:22Speaker 4: a steal much, although he is pretty fast, but he
- 1:13:24Speaker 4: could provide a decent batting average, lots of power. You know,
- 1:13:28Speaker 4: the EV's weren't crazy in the big leagues, but he
- 1:13:30Speaker 4: showed good batspeed, good barrel rate, good launch angle, and
- 1:13:33Speaker 4: had really fantastic EV's in contact at triple A. At
- 1:13:37Speaker 4: triple A he had one hundred percentile ex wloba, so
- 1:13:41Speaker 4: pretty good. You know, great barrel rate, hard hit rate,
- 1:13:44Speaker 4: EV's with rate, contact rate, all those things in the minors,
- 1:13:49Speaker 4: and right now you can get him in you know,
- 1:13:51Speaker 4: adp behind guys like Andrew Bennettendee, Dalton Varshow Starling Marte Like,
- 1:13:58Speaker 4: I don't know how much you're gonna get out of
- 1:13:59Speaker 4: those guys, but I've rather take a shot on, you know,
- 1:14:01Speaker 4: a young guy with upside like Pies.
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I've always liked Pask and the projections
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: have too. Uh, it is gonna be like it'll be
- 1:14:10Speaker 1: a fun scramble, like if there is an injury in
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: that Dodgers lineup, because once Pajs like gets path to
- 1:14:16Speaker 1: full playing time, I think everybody's gonna be on him.
- 1:14:19Speaker 1: But yeah, I like this great kind of pick of
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: taking him early, kind of knowing that the Dodgers all
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: nine can't stay healthy for an entire season.
- 1:14:28Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm interested to see where Taylor goes with his
- 1:14:30Speaker 2: future bypicks because there's a trend of developing here. It's
- 1:14:33Speaker 2: guys that have really good profiles salt you know, Uh,
- 1:14:37Speaker 2: I say high floors. They got a sniff last year
- 1:14:41Speaker 2: but didn't quite get it for for whatever reason. So
- 1:14:44Speaker 2: I'm very interesting to see where you go because I
- 1:14:45Speaker 2: don't disagree with it. You know, another guy just like
- 1:14:47Speaker 2: Beck when he got called up. You look at that
- 1:14:49Speaker 2: that profile, You're like, I mean, there's not a lot
- 1:14:52Speaker 2: of questions there. It's just a matter like let it happen.
- 1:14:55Speaker 2: I also said the same thing about Gavin Lux and
- 1:14:57Speaker 2: look where we are. But I but hey, it's the Dodgers.
- 1:15:01Speaker 2: Finding a buye is not the.
- 1:15:02Speaker 3: Easiest thing to do.
- 1:15:05Speaker 1: So where did you find your biber?
- 1:15:07Speaker 2: Well, Taylor actually mentioned him briefly and about the flexibility,
- 1:15:11Speaker 2: and that's Tommy Edmond. This is also the slight of
- 1:15:14Speaker 2: a Homer pick. Being a Cardinals fan was very annoyed,
- 1:15:17Speaker 2: but that by that trade. And really, when it comes
- 1:15:21Speaker 2: down to a few things, is like Tommy Evans never
- 1:15:23Speaker 2: not produced when he's been healthy and playing, and he
- 1:15:27Speaker 2: lost lost the season last year with that with that
- 1:15:29Speaker 2: wrist injury, and so you know, he clearly looked healthy
- 1:15:33Speaker 2: in the postseason.
- 1:15:34Speaker 4: Uh.
- 1:15:34Speaker 2: And you know, he he is gonna be batting probably
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: like eighth in that lineup, and that's like the best
- 1:15:41Speaker 2: lineup to hit eight them because that's basically batting leadoff
- 1:15:45Speaker 2: in front of show Hey and Mookie and Freddie and
- 1:15:48Speaker 2: Will's and you know, literally one of the best lineups
- 1:15:51Speaker 2: in the planet. So like, if if there's ever an
- 1:15:53Speaker 2: eighth hitter that's going to score one hundred runs, it's
- 1:15:55Speaker 2: Tommy Edmund. And I think he could easily steal twenty
- 1:15:58Speaker 2: five bases.
- 1:15:58Speaker 3: He's not you know, he's not gonna hit like two
- 1:16:00Speaker 3: ninety or anything like that.
- 1:16:01Speaker 2: He's probably two sixty type hitter. And so I think
- 1:16:04Speaker 2: Edmond's just going to fill the stat sheet. And I
- 1:16:06Speaker 2: think people are gonna be sleeping on him because.
- 1:16:08Speaker 3: He he just wasn't there last year. He wasn't around.
- 1:16:12Speaker 2: It looked like the Cardinals sold low on him, which
- 1:16:14Speaker 2: they did. You know, if you pay attention to the postseason, Yeah,
- 1:16:19Speaker 2: there's a little magic that that might carry. But right
- 1:16:21Speaker 2: now he's going off the board as the forty second outfielder.
- 1:16:25Speaker 2: You know, stayed in Raffaela, Layane, Thomas, Taylor, Ward Parker, Meadows,
- 1:16:29Speaker 2: Victor Robolis, like that's the area that he that he's
- 1:16:32Speaker 2: going in, and like he is head and shoulders from
- 1:16:35Speaker 2: me above above that group, even Brandon Nemo and Josh
- 1:16:39Speaker 2: Slow ahead of him, Colton Kowser, like I'd bump him
- 1:16:41Speaker 2: up into like that a Dollas Garcia PCA.
- 1:16:48Speaker 3: Type type range.
- 1:16:48Speaker 2: And I'm I'm willing to talk to him, even a
- 1:16:50Speaker 2: few of those guys like like Cruz and Kwan that
- 1:16:53Speaker 2: I'd be willing to take Tommy Edmund over. So coolly
- 1:16:57Speaker 2: add on to it, pour on, Tommy Edmond is the buy,
- 1:17:01Speaker 2: partially because there's too many other guys that are going in.
- 1:17:03Speaker 3: Like the top one hundred, but also like it's legit.
- 1:17:07Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think a couple of the other
- 1:17:09Speaker 1: reasons are. I mean, he should add shortstop and probably
- 1:17:12Speaker 1: second base eligibility throughout the year. So that's just a
- 1:17:15Speaker 1: dangerous tool for your team out there. I think the
- 1:17:18Speaker 1: projections are waiting what happened in twenty twenty four a
- 1:17:23Speaker 1: little bit too much coming off that wrist injury. I
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: mean you can see the barrel rate was down, the
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: hard hit rate was down, the babbit was down, but
- 1:17:30Speaker 1: that's because he was still battling through the back end
- 1:17:33Speaker 1: of a wrist injury. So I think you're looking at
- 1:17:36Speaker 1: something that can hop a little bit more towards back
- 1:17:39Speaker 1: to like his twenty twenty two line, you know, when
- 1:17:42Speaker 1: he was able to hit two sixty five because the
- 1:17:44Speaker 1: babbot was over three hundred pop thirteen homers. I don't
- 1:17:47Speaker 1: think the ninety five runs are in the profile unless
- 1:17:50Speaker 1: he somehow is able to hit lead off for these
- 1:17:52Speaker 1: Dodgers or a second or something like that and really
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: move up. But I mean, I think you're looking at
- 1:17:57Speaker 1: somebody who's gonna be sniffing like fifteen twenty five with
- 1:18:01Speaker 1: a two sixty average and great versatility. I yeah, I
- 1:18:05Speaker 1: think it's a It's a bye all day for me too.
- 1:18:08Speaker 2: I love the fact that you just quoted my rasball
- 1:18:10Speaker 2: article from last weekend fifteen twenty five to sixty five.
- 1:18:14Speaker 2: I'm really glad that you read.
- 1:18:15Speaker 3: My work.
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: Memorized it. Yeah. I slept on it and just kind
- 1:18:20Speaker 1: of sunk into the brain.
- 1:18:21Speaker 4: I gotta agree with you, guys. He was almost my bye.
- 1:18:23Speaker 4: I'm gonna be honest with you. So I'm glad I
- 1:18:25Speaker 4: didn't go with him, because you know, you guys both
- 1:18:28Speaker 4: picked him. But yeah, I agree with everything you guys said,
- 1:18:30Speaker 4: I think he's a fantastic buy and super utter valued
- 1:18:32Speaker 4: right now.
- 1:18:33Speaker 1: All right, well, yeah, I only took till our third
- 1:18:35Speaker 1: team to get onto the same page, Taylor, who's your
- 1:18:37Speaker 1: cell here? Oh?
- 1:18:39Speaker 4: The entire roster though, I almost went with the entire
- 1:18:44Speaker 4: pitching stat like starting rotation, but I'm gonna go with
- 1:18:48Speaker 4: heis on Kim. And the reason why is because right
- 1:18:51Speaker 4: now he's going at a three twenty nine overall ADP,
- 1:18:56Speaker 4: which is not that high, but a midpick of one
- 1:18:58Speaker 4: ninety two in January, which is way too high for
- 1:19:01Speaker 4: this guy. He's going ahead of guys who I would
- 1:19:04Speaker 4: rather take a shot on, like a Gavin looks like
- 1:19:06Speaker 4: a Michael Massey, Ronnie Mauricio, Juan Brido, if he wins
- 1:19:10Speaker 4: that second base job with the Guardians, like there's even
- 1:19:13Speaker 4: Auto Lopez, Like there's other guys I would rather have
- 1:19:16Speaker 4: above Haisong Kim because a there's no guarantee he starts.
- 1:19:19Speaker 4: Even if he starts, it could be a platoon role,
- 1:19:23Speaker 4: which is what roster resource has him for. And he's
- 1:19:25Speaker 4: got limited upside. There's no power at all. The hope
- 1:19:30Speaker 4: is for a good batting average and some steals, but again,
- 1:19:33Speaker 4: there's no guarantee he holds down every day roll with
- 1:19:35Speaker 4: the Dodgers, and even if he does, it could be
- 1:19:38Speaker 4: a part time role and he's gonna be at bottom
- 1:19:40Speaker 4: of that lineup anyway. I just I don't see why
- 1:19:43Speaker 4: you would invest in him at all really for fantasy
- 1:19:46Speaker 4: this year.
- 1:19:47Speaker 2: The only reasons because you want to have Hasng Kim,
- 1:19:49Speaker 2: and Heisong Kim on your team, and that's fun. That's
- 1:19:53Speaker 2: that's the reason that that you that you do this,
- 1:19:56Speaker 2: and so that's you know, we all in those leagues
- 1:19:58Speaker 2: that have that guy. That's just like, I want to
- 1:19:59Speaker 2: have a fun team there. That's what's driving redp right now.
- 1:20:04Speaker 1: Yeah. And I mean the other like risk here is
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: that he actually plays a lot and like hits two
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: thirty and or two twenty with no power and no
- 1:20:14Speaker 1: counting stats, just like because he fields well enough and
- 1:20:18Speaker 1: can be moved around the diamond that the Dodgers use him,
- 1:20:21Speaker 1: and just you don't get enough value from him that
- 1:20:24Speaker 1: it kills your batting average. Crazy like difference between his
- 1:20:28Speaker 1: projections right now, Steamer has m a ninety seven WRC
- 1:20:32Speaker 1: plus Oopsie had a seventy seven WRC plus. I don't
- 1:20:35Speaker 1: know if there's like a more divisive player that I'm
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: aware of between like the steamer and the oopsie stats,
- 1:20:42Speaker 1: and so it'll be fascinating to see like where the
- 1:20:45Speaker 1: bad X projections come out on him, because you can
- 1:20:49Speaker 1: see both scenarios happening here with Hayes on Kim.
- 1:20:52Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think I saw Jordan talk about
- 1:20:55Speaker 4: this on Twitter my Prospects Live Quality by the way,
- 1:20:58Speaker 4: Uh he mentioned that he doesn't have like good inputs
- 1:21:03Speaker 4: for foreign players yet, so you're gonna see really difference
- 1:21:08Speaker 4: in his oopsie projections versus the other projections out there. Again,
- 1:21:13Speaker 4: I think, you know, two seventy five to two eighty
- 1:21:16Speaker 4: is what you would expect on the high end. I
- 1:21:20Speaker 4: just I don't see him getting that. You know, even
- 1:21:23Speaker 4: projections have him for like five home runs and like
- 1:21:26Speaker 4: double digit steals. I could see the double digit steals
- 1:21:28Speaker 4: if you can get enough playing time, but like again,
- 1:21:31Speaker 4: like what is that really getting you if if you
- 1:21:33Speaker 4: meant like you mentioned Mike, like if the batting average
- 1:21:36Speaker 4: isn't there, he's really hurting your team if he's playing
- 1:21:39Speaker 4: at that point.
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. Jeremy, who is your cell
- 1:21:43Speaker 1: here on the Dodgers.
- 1:21:45Speaker 2: Well, I was good glad to hear Taylor say he's
- 1:21:47Speaker 2: selling potentially the whole rotation, because I am going to
- 1:21:50Speaker 2: probably go and make some people mad by saying I
- 1:21:53Speaker 2: am selling Roki sasaki twentieth picture off the board. And
- 1:21:58Speaker 2: I'm a huge, huge fan of rookie Susaki. You we've
- 1:22:01Speaker 2: talked about him on this podcast before. I was excited
- 1:22:03Speaker 2: to see him posting coming over.
- 1:22:05Speaker 4: But he.
- 1:22:08Speaker 2: There's a lot of question marks I have with Sasaki.
- 1:22:10Speaker 2: Are they gonna go with a six man rotation? They're
- 1:22:12Speaker 2: really deep?
- 1:22:13Speaker 3: Is he there? Are they gonna let him go past
- 1:22:15Speaker 3: the fifth inning?
- 1:22:16Speaker 2: Like this is a prized arm that they are going
- 1:22:18Speaker 2: to nurture and try to make sure they get the
- 1:22:21Speaker 2: most out of it.
- 1:22:22Speaker 3: And so they're not going to push him. They're not
- 1:22:24Speaker 3: gonna rush him that could do us. They don't need to.
- 1:22:27Speaker 3: And if you looked at what he was doing over.
- 1:22:29Speaker 2: In Japan, like he actually struggled relatively for rookie Sasaki
- 1:22:34Speaker 2: last year and even the year prior compared to where
- 1:22:36Speaker 2: he had been. So I still think there's kind of
- 1:22:39Speaker 2: some some growth to be had there. And like I said,
- 1:22:42Speaker 2: I just don't think that I think they're gonna baby him.
- 1:22:43Speaker 2: I think they're gonna pitch him every sixth day type
- 1:22:46Speaker 2: of thing. And then you look where he's going. He's
- 1:22:48Speaker 2: going off the boards as the twentieth starting pitcher at
- 1:22:51Speaker 2: this point. And we're talking about guys like Bryce Miller,
- 1:22:55Speaker 2: Bailey over Spencer schwalenback Hunter Green Tanner by Max Freed,
- 1:23:01Speaker 2: like I'm probably taking the majority of those guys over
- 1:23:05Speaker 2: Rookie Susaki.
- 1:23:06Speaker 3: And I'm not saying this necessarily a talent thing. I'm
- 1:23:09Speaker 3: just saying the situation.
- 1:23:10Speaker 2: I think the Dodgers are going to be much more
- 1:23:13Speaker 2: cautious with him, and so you're not going to get
- 1:23:14Speaker 2: the counting stats that you need getting guys going deep
- 1:23:17Speaker 2: into a ballgame. Like I said, I look right, you
- 1:23:20Speaker 2: know about eight picks after him, like a Bailey Oper,
- 1:23:22Speaker 2: who is a guy I absolutely love, Like that's a
- 1:23:24Speaker 2: guy that can, is a bulldog and we'll get you
- 1:23:27Speaker 2: innings and get and is not gonna blow up on you,
- 1:23:30Speaker 2: get your strikeouts, not gonna get you maybe the wins,
- 1:23:32Speaker 2: and so maybe in a in a rotal league, there's
- 1:23:34Speaker 2: a little difference there because Rookie is gonna be up
- 1:23:37Speaker 2: ten runs every time he leaves the ball game. But
- 1:23:41Speaker 2: I think that there is probably too much helium with them,
- 1:23:45Speaker 2: and I think it's going to keep keep going up
- 1:23:48Speaker 2: the price. At this point, I'm still actually surprised that
- 1:23:51Speaker 2: he's not yet past Shota or Pablo Lopez in or
- 1:23:57Speaker 2: fran Ra Valdez in the ADP. I think he probably will,
- 1:24:01Speaker 2: which is just gonna be another reason where I'm going
- 1:24:03Speaker 2: to stay away from. Doesn't mean I don't believe in
- 1:24:04Speaker 2: the long term. I think this year they're gonna kind
- 1:24:07Speaker 2: of probably uh cap is innings capus potential.
- 1:24:11Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair, and just given some of
- 1:24:13Speaker 1: the reports that we've seen recently on Sasaki's elbow health,
- 1:24:18Speaker 1: it is a rich price to be paying.
- 1:24:21Speaker 4: Yeah, I would much rather invest next year if he's
- 1:24:24Speaker 4: healthy then this year. And like you mentioned, Mike, like
- 1:24:27Speaker 4: one of the conditions in him picking a team was
- 1:24:29Speaker 4: could they figure out why he lost two miles an
- 1:24:31Speaker 4: hour on his fastball last year and you know, how
- 1:24:34Speaker 4: to fix his arm. So that's a pretty big red
- 1:24:37Speaker 4: flag for going you know, the twentieth starting.
- 1:24:39Speaker 3: Pitcher off the board or whatever it was.
- 1:24:41Speaker 1: Yeah, it was the Dodgers presentation. Just doctor Neil Atrasha. Okay,
- 1:24:49Speaker 1: my cell here. This makes me sad, But it's Freddie Freeman.
- 1:24:53Speaker 1: He's going off the board is like the twenty fourth
- 1:24:55Speaker 1: pick right now, and he's entering his age thirty five season,
- 1:24:59Speaker 1: coming on off of that end of the year where
- 1:25:02Speaker 1: obviously he just like totally shredded his ankle and played
- 1:25:05Speaker 1: through it and won the World Series MVP was great.
- 1:25:08Speaker 1: But when you're grinding day in, day out for one
- 1:25:11Speaker 1: hundred and sixty two games on that he did have
- 1:25:13Speaker 1: the off season surgery, I'm just worried of like where
- 1:25:18Speaker 1: this could kind of all lead. I don't want to
- 1:25:20Speaker 1: be stuck holding the bag here on Freeman. And so
- 1:25:24Speaker 1: especially where you're looking at like the players that are
- 1:25:27Speaker 1: going around him, you know you've got you know, Bryce Harper,
- 1:25:30Speaker 1: Jared Duran, Trey Turner, Jazz Chisholm, Ronald Lacunya, Jackson Merrill,
- 1:25:35Speaker 1: like all these guys have such a huge, huge ceiling.
- 1:25:38Speaker 1: I don't know if the ceiling is there for Freddy anymore.
- 1:25:41Speaker 1: That the hard hit rate has been in the forty
- 1:25:45Speaker 1: one percent level now for two years, I don't think
- 1:25:48Speaker 1: that the Homers are going to get beyond like the
- 1:25:50Speaker 1: mid twenties spot and if you're just going by raw
- 1:25:53Speaker 1: projections of dollar values, I do not see Freddie Freeman
- 1:25:57Speaker 1: getting eleven bags next year, which is where he's projected
- 1:26:00Speaker 1: for in pretty much all of the systems right now,
- 1:26:02Speaker 1: as they're still factoring in what he did in twenty
- 1:26:06Speaker 1: twenty three. And on top of it, I just the
- 1:26:09Speaker 1: other nice floor with Freeman was that batting average that
- 1:26:14Speaker 1: you know, it was always locked in pretty much for
- 1:26:17Speaker 1: three hundred and then you had the upside of like
- 1:26:19Speaker 1: a three twenty three thirty. I just don't know if
- 1:26:22Speaker 1: it's there for Freddy Freeman. So uh it, Like I said,
- 1:26:25Speaker 1: it pains me because I love the dude, easy Hall
- 1:26:28Speaker 1: of Famer, but this is just not a profile that's
- 1:26:31Speaker 1: trending in the correct direction for me.
- 1:26:35Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's one of those I actually look
- 1:26:37Speaker 2: at that part of the draft and there's like almost
- 1:26:40Speaker 2: all the hitters in that like probably you know, second
- 1:26:44Speaker 2: third round. Like there's just so many question marks there
- 1:26:47Speaker 2: that that I'm almost scared to touch touch many of them,
- 1:26:51Speaker 2: like the guys you mentioned to, like all of them
- 1:26:52Speaker 2: have have some level of concern. I got a slightly
- 1:26:56Speaker 2: more hope with with Freeman. But I do feel like
- 1:26:58Speaker 2: we're getting like Paul goldgmin Terar here where it's just
- 1:27:00Speaker 2: like like I'm hoping because he went to you know,
- 1:27:03Speaker 2: drive line or something that's it's gonna be there. And
- 1:27:05Speaker 2: I think Freddy's not falling that far off. I think
- 1:27:08Speaker 2: still there's still some.
- 1:27:10Speaker 3: Some of the tank.
- 1:27:11Speaker 2: But I think you're right like twenty fourth overall, like
- 1:27:14Speaker 2: that's it's it's just starting now to get on the border.
- 1:27:17Speaker 2: It's considering that that speed is the thing that's always
- 1:27:20Speaker 2: been able to help him. The extra little extra speed
- 1:27:22Speaker 2: that you kick in at the first base category with
- 1:27:25Speaker 2: that three hundred average was such a booie uh to
- 1:27:28Speaker 2: to your team, and now that he's that that might.
- 1:27:32Speaker 3: Be in a question. I I I'm not completely opposed.
- 1:27:36Speaker 2: I probably will still draft Freeman here and there if
- 1:27:38Speaker 2: I if I think he's gonna drop down to like
- 1:27:39Speaker 2: third fourth round value, but definitely a guy that I
- 1:27:43Speaker 2: think that the warning signs are out for and one
- 1:27:46Speaker 2: of these one of these years, is gonna gonna drop
- 1:27:48Speaker 2: off drastically.
- 1:27:50Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually pretty confident in a bounce back this year.
- 1:27:54Speaker 4: I just don't think the value is there where he's
- 1:27:57Speaker 4: being picked, so like, like you just said, like I
- 1:27:59Speaker 4: would rat Like if it's a round or two later,
- 1:28:01Speaker 4: I would definitely grab him there because I do have
- 1:28:03Speaker 4: faith in that bounce back, But like, you're not getting
- 1:28:04Speaker 4: any kind of a discount right now, and I would
- 1:28:07Speaker 4: rather go for the upside than take on that risk,
- 1:28:11Speaker 4: even if I think he's going.
- 1:28:13Speaker 3: To bounce back.
- 1:28:14Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's that's fair. Okay, who is your
- 1:28:17Speaker 1: pick to click here from the prospect side, Taylor, I'm.
- 1:28:20Speaker 4: Willing with Joe Andrey Vargas. So this is a really
- 1:28:22Speaker 4: stack system and I feel like this guy just kind
- 1:28:24Speaker 4: of gets lost in the crowd. A nineteen year old
- 1:28:27Speaker 4: shortstop six four one hundred and seventy five pounds, had
- 1:28:29Speaker 4: a great DSL season in twenty twenty three, followed that
- 1:28:32Speaker 4: up with an excellent complex season this year, or I
- 1:28:36Speaker 4: should say last year in twenty twenty four, showed good power,
- 1:28:39Speaker 4: solid hit tool, a billy to chip in some steals,
- 1:28:42Speaker 4: and I think it's gonna be really fun to see
- 1:28:43Speaker 4: what he does in full season ball this year. And again,
- 1:28:46Speaker 4: like he you have the Dalton var show. I'm sorry,
- 1:28:50Speaker 4: Dalton Rushing, not Var show. Emil Morales, Josea Paula as
- 1:28:56Speaker 4: your hope. Like you got all these guys who just
- 1:28:58Speaker 4: kind of overshadow him, even Edward Taro, and he's just
- 1:29:01Speaker 4: kind of like the next guy down and kind of
- 1:29:03Speaker 4: forgotten about. But I think he could really make a
- 1:29:05Speaker 4: name for himself next year in full season.
- 1:29:08Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm totally on board. I think this is guy.
- 1:29:10Speaker 1: He was one of my considerations, and I think he's
- 1:29:12Speaker 1: gonna really pop on prospects lists going into twenty twenty
- 1:29:16Speaker 1: five as he kind of comes into more full season ball,
- 1:29:20Speaker 1: just gets more eyeballs on him. I great pick.
- 1:29:25Speaker 2: Brew who's here? Pick to click on the Dodgers Tyler
- 1:29:28Speaker 2: Just Tyler Taylor. Sorry, Taylor Taylor just mentioned, just mentioned him,
- 1:29:35Speaker 2: And I'm gonna have to call out probably what obvious
- 1:29:37Speaker 2: one in xior Hope here. He was absolutely crushing it
- 1:29:42Speaker 2: in the Fall League. And if you look at the
- 1:29:44Speaker 2: stat line, it doesn't look actually that impressive until you
- 1:29:46Speaker 2: remember the kid.
- 1:29:47Speaker 3: Is nineteen when when he was doing this, and you
- 1:29:51Speaker 3: know what he what he did in the.
- 1:29:52Speaker 2: Miners last year a single a as a nineteen year old,
- 1:29:57Speaker 2: fifty four games, nine home wers, two eighty seven hours,
- 1:30:00Speaker 2: still eight bags, and there's this is a guy that
- 1:30:02Speaker 2: looks like there's just a lot more in the tank.
- 1:30:05Speaker 2: He's still just like developing truly as a ballplayer, and
- 1:30:09Speaker 2: that's the fact that he's been able to do what
- 1:30:11Speaker 2: he can at the age as I think they're going
- 1:30:13Speaker 2: to push him into.
- 1:30:14Speaker 3: Double A this year and he's going to continue to grow.
- 1:30:18Speaker 2: He's probably at this point now the prospect's list are
- 1:30:21Speaker 2: starting to come out, like the little that ability to
- 1:30:24Speaker 2: buy him is going to start to disappear. But I
- 1:30:26Speaker 2: think he is going to continue to have a little
- 1:30:29Speaker 2: bit more helium on list and jump up the next
- 1:30:33Speaker 2: maybe a year from now, we're talking probably a top
- 1:30:36Speaker 2: you know, thirty prospect and Taylor, I'd be curious where
- 1:30:40Speaker 2: you would be projecting him a year from now because
- 1:30:42Speaker 2: I think there's gonna be a lot of helium with
- 1:30:43Speaker 2: without your hope.
- 1:30:45Speaker 4: Yeah, I just updated my prospect drank. I think I
- 1:30:48Speaker 4: had him around forty, so you're not far off. But
- 1:30:51Speaker 4: I call him out your hype because depending on you know,
- 1:30:54Speaker 4: who you talk to, Like I just saw him go
- 1:30:57Speaker 4: I think around like twelfth overall in a prospect draft.
- 1:31:00Speaker 4: So like granted the guy's name was like Dodgers theme,
- 1:31:04Speaker 4: so it was clearly a Dodgers homer, but like still
- 1:31:07Speaker 4: like and like I was like, Okay, that's really aggressive,
- 1:31:10Speaker 4: but like maybe not that crazy because this guy has
- 1:31:13Speaker 4: really really loud tools. You know that the ceiling is
- 1:31:17Speaker 4: extremely high. He's in obviously a great development organization with
- 1:31:21Speaker 4: the Dodgers, and yeah, I think the hype is just
- 1:31:23Speaker 4: going to continue to go up with him.
- 1:31:26Speaker 1: Yeah, that's awesome. Yeah, I agree. I love him. And
- 1:31:29Speaker 1: if there are any Cubs fans out there listening, you
- 1:31:31Speaker 1: might want to cover your ears here because I'm taking
- 1:31:34Speaker 1: the other part of that Michael Bush trade. I'm going
- 1:31:36Speaker 1: with Jackson Ferris here as my pic to click in
- 1:31:38Speaker 1: the Dodgers system. You can see it right on his
- 1:31:41Speaker 1: fangrass page. Just smacks you right in the face. Forty
- 1:31:45Speaker 1: plus future value and you this is one of those
- 1:31:48Speaker 1: where you're just like, oh, I'm reading it and like,
- 1:31:50Speaker 1: how does it all come together? And you're like fifty
- 1:31:52Speaker 1: future fastball, sixty future slider, fifty five future curveball, fifty
- 1:31:57Speaker 1: future change up, great arsenal, But then the command isn't
- 1:32:00Speaker 1: quite there. Would the Dodgers do this year? They kind
- 1:32:03Speaker 1: of fixed a little bit that command. He cut down
- 1:32:04Speaker 1: the k rate in High A and Double A. You know,
- 1:32:08Speaker 1: it was in the fives with the Cubs. In twenty
- 1:32:10Speaker 1: twenty three, the Dodgers brought back down into the fours,
- 1:32:14Speaker 1: still kept the k rate at pretty solid, you know,
- 1:32:18Speaker 1: struck out ten point three per nine across one hundred
- 1:32:21Speaker 1: and twenty six and two thirds total innings in the miners.
- 1:32:25Speaker 1: I think this is the next Dodgers kind of rising
- 1:32:29Speaker 1: star pitching prospect that he's going to be going in
- 1:32:32Speaker 1: his age twenty one season, should be opening in Double A,
- 1:32:35Speaker 1: and that's within shouting distance of the major leagues. Kind
- 1:32:39Speaker 1: of going back to our ten step discussion, because if
- 1:32:42Speaker 1: he's ready to go, the Dodgers can bring him up
- 1:32:45Speaker 1: when they've got the rotation spot. And I think this
- 1:32:48Speaker 1: is a guy who's got a great ground ball rate
- 1:32:50Speaker 1: and has just really got all of the foundational tools.
- 1:32:54Speaker 1: It was a great pick by the Cubs, but they
- 1:32:55Speaker 1: just didn't, I don't think had the tools to be
- 1:32:58Speaker 1: able to develop them the way the Dodgers are. So
- 1:32:59Speaker 1: I think Ferris will be a great pick to kind
- 1:33:02Speaker 1: of rise up boards going into twenty twenty five.
- 1:33:07Speaker 4: Yeah, I completely love that call it. I think he's
- 1:33:09Speaker 4: the best arm in that system right now. And granted,
- 1:33:11Speaker 4: like the Dodgers don't have as stacked arms as they
- 1:33:14Speaker 4: usually do, but I think he was a steal from
- 1:33:18Speaker 4: the Cubs there, unfortunately for you. And yeah, I think
- 1:33:21Speaker 4: he's he's got the really bright future ahead of him.
- 1:33:24Speaker 1: Yeah, sorry Cubs fans. All Right, We're going to move
- 1:33:27Speaker 1: on to the San Diego Padres. Now, who this is
- 1:33:31Speaker 1: a team that made the playoffs last year. This is
- 1:33:34Speaker 1: I don't think I've seen a team built like this
- 1:33:36Speaker 1: in quite some time. I was looking at their depth
- 1:33:38Speaker 1: as we were getting into, you know, the analysis here
- 1:33:41Speaker 1: for this discussion. This is a super thin team from
- 1:33:46Speaker 1: not only like the major league level, but the minor
- 1:33:48Speaker 1: league level has been totally gutted from all the AJ
- 1:33:51Speaker 1: Preler trades over the past few years. So this does
- 1:33:55Speaker 1: have a feeling of like getting the band back together
- 1:33:57Speaker 1: one more time, because I don't I don't know how
- 1:34:00Speaker 1: this is really going to be sustainable for the Padres
- 1:34:02Speaker 1: going forward. Obviously they have some big prospects coming through
- 1:34:06Speaker 1: in Ethan Sallas and Leo Dallas Devrees, but unfortunately they
- 1:34:09Speaker 1: can't occupy all twenty six roster spots at the same time.
- 1:34:13Speaker 1: Between the two of them. So with that lead in Taylor,
- 1:34:16Speaker 1: who is your buye here? For the San Diego padres.
- 1:34:19Speaker 4: Well, I figured I went with a bunch of young
- 1:34:21Speaker 4: players who didn't have starting roles, so I had to
- 1:34:23Speaker 4: switch it up and go with a veteran player who
- 1:34:26Speaker 4: is locked into a starting role. In that's Sander Bogarts.
- 1:34:30Speaker 4: I wish he was going coming at more of a discount.
- 1:34:32Speaker 4: He's got ADP right now of one forty five. I
- 1:34:35Speaker 4: seem to be collecting him in all my drafts this offseason,
- 1:34:37Speaker 4: both Dynasty and Redraft, so I had to kind of
- 1:34:39Speaker 4: speak to why I like him. I think, you know,
- 1:34:44Speaker 4: the names that are going around him are fine. If
- 1:34:46Speaker 4: you I would personally take him over like a Luis
- 1:34:49Speaker 4: Ringifo or even a Bryce Terraang just because I have
- 1:34:52Speaker 4: more faith in the playing time and the ability that
- 1:34:55Speaker 4: he's going to show versus the upside of those other guys.
- 1:34:57Speaker 4: But you know, you look at his last season. Power
- 1:35:00Speaker 4: really fell off last year, but it was mostly front loaded,
- 1:35:03Speaker 4: and you got to remember, like when I'm doing my analysis,
- 1:35:05Speaker 4: I'm also trying to remember that these are human beings,
- 1:35:07Speaker 4: right Like they're going through real life issues. They're not
- 1:35:09Speaker 4: always at the top of their game. Xander Bogart's, after
- 1:35:12Speaker 4: being a shortstop forever, had to start playing second base,
- 1:35:16Speaker 4: and so he really struggled to start out the year,
- 1:35:19Speaker 4: and I think that was a big part of it
- 1:35:20Speaker 4: because he was learning this new position. He had to
- 1:35:22Speaker 4: deal with the ego hit of being told like, hey,
- 1:35:25Speaker 4: you're not good enough for short stop anymore, you got
- 1:35:27Speaker 4: to go to second base. And then he hurt his shoulder.
- 1:35:31Speaker 4: But once he came back from the shoulder injury, he
- 1:35:33Speaker 4: actually looked a lot better. In his last sixty four games,
- 1:35:35Speaker 4: he hit two ninety nine with seven home runs and
- 1:35:37Speaker 4: nine stolen bases, had a higher average exit velocity last year,
- 1:35:41Speaker 4: lower ground ball rate, higher pole rate. He also had
- 1:35:44Speaker 4: his lowest Babbitt since twenty fourteen, so I think that
- 1:35:46Speaker 4: was a big reason why, you know, the surface numbers
- 1:35:49Speaker 4: weren't that good. Still just thirty two years old. I
- 1:35:51Speaker 4: think he can hit between fifteen and twenty home runs,
- 1:35:54Speaker 4: get you fifty to twenty stolen bases, and gets you
- 1:35:56Speaker 4: a really good average, and he's going to be in
- 1:35:57Speaker 4: that lineup every day that he's healthy. He's going to
- 1:35:59Speaker 4: be great compiler. He's got that dual position eligibility at
- 1:36:02Speaker 4: second and short. There's a lot to like with him,
- 1:36:04Speaker 4: and I feel like he's kind of unfairly maligned for
- 1:36:07Speaker 4: one kind of weird season.
- 1:36:10Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's interesting that like he and I
- 1:36:12Speaker 2: think it was happened last year too. He's like the
- 1:36:15Speaker 2: best middle infielder on a fantasy team. Like you just
- 1:36:19Speaker 2: seem like you end up with him in that spot
- 1:36:21Speaker 2: and you're like absolutely thrilled because you're right, Like I
- 1:36:24Speaker 2: look at him and like, it's how does he not
- 1:36:26Speaker 2: go fifteen fifteen, hit two seventy, like as a floor
- 1:36:30Speaker 2: and like if you have that as your middle infielder,
- 1:36:32Speaker 2: you should be ecstatic, Like you just lock them, don't
- 1:36:35Speaker 2: worry about it, and deal with it later type of thing.
- 1:36:37Speaker 2: But he could do more because he is very, very talented.
- 1:36:40Speaker 2: So I think it's a great call. I think I
- 1:36:43Speaker 2: think Bogart's has has more left in the tank for sure.
- 1:36:46Speaker 2: He's I mean, guys only going to his you know,
- 1:36:49Speaker 2: thirty two year old season, so there's still a ton
- 1:36:53Speaker 2: ton left for him. I just think, you know, moving
- 1:36:56Speaker 2: out of Boston where you don't have that big light
- 1:36:58Speaker 2: where everybody's like he's gonna be there is thing like
- 1:37:00Speaker 2: it seems like moving to San Diego is just like
- 1:37:03Speaker 2: dim into the light of Lexander Bogarts. But he's still
- 1:37:06Speaker 2: the same guy he still has been.
- 1:37:08Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a great pick, and you nailed it, Jeremy.
- 1:37:11Speaker 1: In terms of like the floor, the problem I'm having
- 1:37:13Speaker 1: with a lot of those second basemen that kind of
- 1:37:15Speaker 1: go in that second wave along with Xander Bogarts is
- 1:37:19Speaker 1: the floor is all the way down like into like
- 1:37:24Speaker 1: the middle of the earth on some of those guys
- 1:37:26Speaker 1: that some of them just might not get jobs at
- 1:37:29Speaker 1: the end of the day. And so at least with Xander,
- 1:37:31Speaker 1: like you've got a solid floor to build from, and
- 1:37:34Speaker 1: then he's been a star build on top of that.
- 1:37:37Speaker 1: Brew who's your pick here for the for the buye
- 1:37:39Speaker 1: on the padres.
- 1:37:40Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think let's let's stick with veterans. I'm
- 1:37:43Speaker 2: going with Michael King in that rotation there. I look
- 1:37:47Speaker 2: at it and I look at the guys going in
- 1:37:49Speaker 2: the same area. I mean, he is going as a
- 1:37:51Speaker 2: top twenty pitcher, but you you look at the guys
- 1:37:54Speaker 2: in that area and like he is just so solid.
- 1:37:59Speaker 2: It's it's been three years now that he's put up
- 1:38:02Speaker 2: basically the same exact stat line. I get there's a
- 1:38:04Speaker 2: little abbreviation in some of those with the Yankees because
- 1:38:06Speaker 2: they just don't know what to do with starting pictures
- 1:38:07Speaker 2: at times. But like he always is striking out roughly
- 1:38:10Speaker 2: eleven guys per nine. He's basically in the high two
- 1:38:14Speaker 2: s walk range. He's putting the ball on the ground
- 1:38:18Speaker 2: like the ray is between two to three to two nine.
- 1:38:22Speaker 2: Like he's just been solid as I'll get out and
- 1:38:24Speaker 2: he can go deep into games. Like that's what you
- 1:38:28Speaker 2: want in a in a picture. And I look at
- 1:38:31Speaker 2: the guys going in the early rounds as pictures, and
- 1:38:35Speaker 2: I'm sitting here going like I got questions on a
- 1:38:38Speaker 2: lot of these these guys, like clearly, like I'm gonna
- 1:38:41Speaker 2: ignore the top few of them, but like Crochet you
- 1:38:43Speaker 2: got question marks, Corbyn Burns, you definitely have question marks.
- 1:38:45Speaker 2: Jacob deGrom, there's clearly gonna be the question marks there,
- 1:38:50Speaker 2: Dylan c Splake Snell, you know, yamo to you go
- 1:38:53Speaker 2: through all these Garrett Cole, they all have like is
- 1:38:56Speaker 2: which guy's gonna show up? And then you have Michael King,
- 1:38:58Speaker 2: and I'm like, I have zoo real question marks for
- 1:39:01Speaker 2: Michael King. Is can he do what a Blake Snell
- 1:39:04Speaker 2: can at Blake Snell's best? No, But will I drop
- 1:39:07Speaker 2: Blake Snell midway through the season because I'm just completely
- 1:39:09Speaker 2: fed up with him I did last year like absolutely, well,
- 1:39:13Speaker 2: I'm still yeah, I'm still better. And so I look
- 1:39:18Speaker 2: at Michael King of like maybe one of the first
- 1:39:21Speaker 2: starting pitchers I want on my team off of the board,
- 1:39:24Speaker 2: and I'm willing to actually pay a little bit more
- 1:39:26Speaker 2: for them where he's going right now, even if I
- 1:39:29Speaker 2: have to, you know, dip into maybe the fourth fifth
- 1:39:33Speaker 2: round type of type of type of range to be
- 1:39:35Speaker 2: having having that stability as my number one. I actually
- 1:39:38Speaker 2: actually love him as number one versus almost all those
- 1:39:41Speaker 2: other guys.
- 1:39:42Speaker 1: Uh.
- 1:39:42Speaker 2: So that's probably when I start dipping into the starting
- 1:39:44Speaker 2: pitching pool, just because of the reliability that I that
- 1:39:47Speaker 2: I see, and hey, he he actually had kind of
- 1:39:50Speaker 2: almost say a down year last year. Ve lost, he
- 1:39:53Speaker 2: was down, think things were like that's things that he
- 1:39:55Speaker 2: can work on. He's he's still a relatively you know,
- 1:39:59Speaker 2: compared to myself, young guy. He'll he'll be uh twenty
- 1:40:02Speaker 2: nine entering the season. He'll turn thirty early in the year.
- 1:40:05Speaker 2: There's still a ton left in this tank, and there's
- 1:40:08Speaker 2: a big tank in that sixty three to two ten frame.
- 1:40:12Speaker 1: Yeah, and he held up over one hundred and seventy
- 1:40:14Speaker 1: three and two thirds innings last year, so I mean
- 1:40:16Speaker 1: that was always the biggest question mark. I like this one.
- 1:40:19Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it too. My one concern with them
- 1:40:21Speaker 4: is just the innings jump, Like going from one hundred
- 1:40:23Speaker 4: and four one hundred and seventy three is a pretty
- 1:40:24Speaker 4: big jump. But like you mentioned, all the guys going
- 1:40:27Speaker 4: around him have their own like questions. So from a
- 1:40:30Speaker 4: performance standpoint, I have zero questions. I think he's a stud.
- 1:40:33Speaker 3: Yep, right cool.
- 1:40:36Speaker 1: My buy so might BUYE, and my pick to click
- 1:40:39Speaker 1: honestly could be interchanged a little bit, but I'm gonna
- 1:40:41Speaker 1: stick my my first buy here. It's gonna be Terso
- 1:40:44Speaker 1: or Nalos. So I think he's gonna get this left
- 1:40:48Speaker 1: field job that I think that Preller's almost kind of
- 1:40:51Speaker 1: like stuck. I don't think that there's any more money
- 1:40:54Speaker 1: coming from the ownership group, especially with the you know,
- 1:40:58Speaker 1: squabbles that they've been having between Peter Sidler's widowed wife
- 1:41:05Speaker 1: and then like the rest of like the brothers and
- 1:41:09Speaker 1: stuff there, that it just seems like a mess that
- 1:41:11Speaker 1: no more money is gonna be flowing through to be
- 1:41:14Speaker 1: added to this team. So I think Ornellis is gonna
- 1:41:16Speaker 1: be opening the season as a strong side platoon in
- 1:41:19Speaker 1: left field, and I think he can hold it down.
- 1:41:21Speaker 1: That this is a guy who in Triple A last
- 1:41:24Speaker 1: year was extremely solid with a one thirteen WRC plus
- 1:41:28Speaker 1: pop twenty three homers. He has at least average grades
- 1:41:33Speaker 1: across the board on all of his tools on fangrafts
- 1:41:36Speaker 1: from Eric Longenhagen, great approach at the plate, doesn't strike
- 1:41:40Speaker 1: out too much. This is just kind of like the
- 1:41:43Speaker 1: boring fourth or fifth outfielder in your lineup where you
- 1:41:47Speaker 1: look up at the end of the year and he's
- 1:41:48Speaker 1: got eighteen ish homers with like seventy ish runs and
- 1:41:52Speaker 1: RBIs and has hit like two fifties, just like a
- 1:41:55Speaker 1: total league average dude. But like where he's going in drafts,
- 1:41:59Speaker 1: it's an sleep boon for him. Let me look it up.
- 1:42:02Speaker 1: It is super late right now. And the other reason
- 1:42:06Speaker 1: he popped is that on like the per game UH
- 1:42:10Speaker 1: player Raider, like he is a positive value in fifteen
- 1:42:14Speaker 1: teamers right now in our ras ball going average pick
- 1:42:18Speaker 1: ADP of six ninety and draft champions, so absolutely free.
- 1:42:22Speaker 1: I'm falling in love with Ernealos the more and more
- 1:42:25Speaker 1: I dig into his profile.
- 1:42:28Speaker 2: I love this, Okay, I think the only thing I
- 1:42:30Speaker 2: would say with Ornelis is like, and this is the
- 1:42:33Speaker 2: worst comp in the world. I've been owned this Chris
- 1:42:35Speaker 2: Davis of the Oakland Athletics.
- 1:42:37Speaker 1: It's fine because for six ninety.
- 1:42:41Speaker 2: Because he hits the same average every year, Like you
- 1:42:46Speaker 2: go back and look at his history, whether the miners,
- 1:42:48Speaker 2: whether you know, at double A, triple A, doesn't matter
- 1:42:52Speaker 2: what year the guy hits. Basically two eighty five to
- 1:42:55Speaker 2: two eighty eight, he's the exact same thing. And so
- 1:42:58Speaker 2: I think that's like that doesn't exist in our game,
- 1:43:03Speaker 2: that kind of reliability at that point in the draft.
- 1:43:05Speaker 2: So I think it's really intriguing that he can come
- 1:43:09Speaker 2: up there and there's a guy I'll talk about later
- 1:43:10Speaker 2: that I think plays in the same ball game, and
- 1:43:13Speaker 2: those guys just get forgotten, and he's clearly forgotten.
- 1:43:17Speaker 3: I don't know what. I'm not gonna do the math
- 1:43:19Speaker 3: on what round that is? Six point fifty.
- 1:43:22Speaker 4: I mean, he's he I wroughte him up last year
- 1:43:24Speaker 4: because I do like a pickups article and He's been
- 1:43:29Speaker 4: in the minors forever, like just forever, just toiling away
- 1:43:34Speaker 4: at the bottom of prospect list, and finally last year
- 1:43:36Speaker 4: it seemed to all click for him at Triple A.
- 1:43:40Speaker 4: You know, you mentioned the low batting average he's got,
- 1:43:42Speaker 4: like the two ninety eight average last year. I'm looking
- 1:43:44Speaker 4: at his his Triple A stat cast right now, like
- 1:43:47Speaker 4: the EV's were really good, seventy six percentile ninetieth percentile
- 1:43:51Speaker 4: x velocity. The contact was really good, eighty ninth percentile
- 1:43:55Speaker 4: zone contact. He pulls the ball really well, he pulls
- 1:43:58Speaker 4: fly balls really well. So he'll get the most out
- 1:44:00Speaker 4: of his power. I know, like Fangrafts gave him a
- 1:44:02Speaker 4: forty five game power. I think he can play upwards
- 1:44:05Speaker 4: of you know, fifty to fifty five. I think he
- 1:44:07Speaker 4: can hit twenty five home runs. It's just a matter
- 1:44:10Speaker 4: of are they going to give a guy who's kind
- 1:44:12Speaker 4: of at this point off prospect radars that much run?
- 1:44:15Speaker 4: But like you mentioned, they're not spending money, so they're
- 1:44:18Speaker 4: either gonna have to trade like a Dylan Ceas and
- 1:44:20Speaker 4: bringing talent, or they got to go with what they have.
- 1:44:22Speaker 4: And this is a very thin system, particularly at the
- 1:44:25Speaker 4: higher end. You know they have some superstars there, but
- 1:44:27Speaker 4: they're not big league ready. And I could definitely see
- 1:44:31Speaker 4: Ornella's getting some run and I can see him performing
- 1:44:34Speaker 4: really well. And like you mentioned, he's so far down
- 1:44:37Speaker 4: the list in drafts, he's just an afterthought.
- 1:44:40Speaker 1: All right, let's go on to ourselves here for the
- 1:44:43Speaker 1: Padres Taylor, who you got for yourself?
- 1:44:46Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going with another veteran here in Jake Croninworth. Again,
- 1:44:52Speaker 4: he's going to be in that lineup every day because
- 1:44:54Speaker 4: he signed until the end of time. I don't know
- 1:44:56Speaker 4: why they gave him a contract extension to like twenty thirty,
- 1:44:59Speaker 4: but they did. But at two seventy seven ADP and
- 1:45:03Speaker 4: there's just so many guys going after him, I would
- 1:45:05Speaker 4: rather have even with that dual eligibility, he can play
- 1:45:08Speaker 4: first base second base, but at first base, I'd much
- 1:45:10Speaker 4: rather have Tyler Sotostrom, even like Andrew Vaughn Luke Rayley
- 1:45:14Speaker 4: at second base. I'd rather take a shot on Christian Campbell,
- 1:45:17Speaker 4: who could win that opening day job, or even like
- 1:45:19Speaker 4: a Tyrostrata or even a Nolan Gorman. That's how little
- 1:45:22Speaker 4: faith I have in Jake Croninworth, because the thing about
- 1:45:24Speaker 4: Jake Croninworth is that he's not gonna steel bases. He might.
- 1:45:29Speaker 4: You're hoping for fifteen home runs over a full season's
- 1:45:32Speaker 4: worth of plate appearances. He's gonna have a pretty mediocre
- 1:45:35Speaker 4: to bad batting average. So yeah, he's gonna get volume,
- 1:45:38Speaker 4: but that volume is gonna hurt you in the ratios,
- 1:45:40Speaker 4: and he's not really providing anything else above that. I
- 1:45:43Speaker 4: just don't see why he's going that high in drafts.
- 1:45:47Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, it's so boring, like there's just like
- 1:45:50Speaker 1: no other level here. As we've seen with Jake Croninworth,
- 1:45:56Speaker 1: it's like a two thirty batting average, two thirty five
- 1:45:59Speaker 1: batting average, mid teens homers and just playing time that. Yeah,
- 1:46:04Speaker 1: I agree. When you're that point in the draft, I
- 1:46:06Speaker 1: want to try to roll the dice a little bit
- 1:46:08Speaker 1: more before I'm trying to dip into a Jake cronin
- 1:46:12Speaker 1: Worth type pool. All right, Brew, who is your cell
- 1:46:18Speaker 1: here for the Padres?
- 1:46:19Speaker 2: So if you listen to this podcast, you know exactly
- 1:46:22Speaker 2: who I'm going to sell. Cool, you know who I'm
- 1:46:24Speaker 2: going to sell, and it's very easy. Yeah, it's Louis
- 1:46:27Speaker 2: Arias I sell. Louis Aria's literally every chance I get.
- 1:46:31Speaker 2: There are some guys that, like, there's very few guys
- 1:46:33Speaker 2: in the majors that I will not like ever consider drafting.
- 1:46:36Speaker 2: And I will literally never draft Louis Ariah's. I don't
- 1:46:39Speaker 2: care if it's ADP is one seventy one, I don't
- 1:46:41Speaker 2: care if it's five hundred. I'm not drafting Louise Ariah's.
- 1:46:45Speaker 2: That is such a one trick pony. And I've one
- 1:46:48Speaker 2: point in my early years of looking at fantasy baseball
- 1:46:51Speaker 2: always look I like to go across and rate players
- 1:46:54Speaker 2: on each category from a roto perspective of two plus
- 1:46:58Speaker 2: one plus ridge minus two minus. Luis Arias is like
- 1:47:02Speaker 2: minus minus in like four categories. Maybe runs, I'll give
- 1:47:06Speaker 2: you that, he's like maybe average there, and then he's
- 1:47:09Speaker 2: got a plus in one category. Like he literally hurts
- 1:47:12Speaker 2: you so much in every category that you have to
- 1:47:15Speaker 2: overcome that with all the rest of your roster. And
- 1:47:18Speaker 2: you're only doing that because you're hoping for a three
- 1:47:20Speaker 2: fifteen average and that's all you're looking for, and that's
- 1:47:26Speaker 2: you're paying up so significantly from that, So like what
- 1:47:29Speaker 2: it just it ruins your team, Like there's no point
- 1:47:32Speaker 2: in drafting Louis Aria's at any point in the time.
- 1:47:35Speaker 2: So Taylor, I'm sorry if you like Louis Riah's, but
- 1:47:39Speaker 2: I do not. I do not like Louis Riah's. I
- 1:47:41Speaker 2: will never play that ballgame. I hope Louis Arias is
- 1:47:45Speaker 2: not listening to this. But it's literally like there there's
- 1:47:49Speaker 2: a do not draft list and there's like five guys
- 1:47:51Speaker 2: on it, and Loose Arias is like driving that bandwagon.
- 1:47:54Speaker 4: I couldn't agree more. Don't don't put that voodo on me.
- 1:47:56Speaker 4: I don't want anything to do with Louise Rias.
- 1:47:59Speaker 1: Yes, and I agree to that. When it was like
- 1:48:02Speaker 1: a three thirty three forty bang aarage, I could talk
- 1:48:05Speaker 1: myself into it. But if it's just gonna be like
- 1:48:07Speaker 1: a three ten uh huh, Like it doesn't make up
- 1:48:10Speaker 1: for the rest of the flaws enough.
- 1:48:13Speaker 2: I like the projections like he's gonna hit ten homers
- 1:48:15Speaker 2: from Steamer from like, no, he's not, Like I don't
- 1:48:19Speaker 2: know what you're talking about. Louserizesna, he's done that once
- 1:48:22Speaker 2: in his career and he got lucky. Uh losrized like
- 1:48:26Speaker 2: my over under is like six homers, and I feel
- 1:48:29Speaker 2: like that's being.
- 1:48:30Speaker 1: Generous, all right, my cell here, I'm actually I'm selling
- 1:48:34Speaker 1: a first rounder here too. I'm selling Fernando Tattoos Junior.
- 1:48:37Speaker 1: I can't do it. It's not enough volume going into
- 1:48:39Speaker 1: the first round where like especially, I mean he's going
- 1:48:43Speaker 1: ninth right now, that low min pick a four, which
- 1:48:48Speaker 1: blows my mind. I don't know who was picking like
- 1:48:51Speaker 1: fourth pick Fernaito test You Junior. But at that point
- 1:48:55Speaker 1: that price level, I need all the volume I can get,
- 1:48:58Speaker 1: and I don't think Fernando test Junior can do it,
- 1:49:01Speaker 1: like the way that he plays. And you've kind of
- 1:49:03Speaker 1: brought this up over the years, grew with like Bryce
- 1:49:06Speaker 1: Harper and you know other guys who just play all out.
- 1:49:09Speaker 1: Tatis is right in that boat that, Like, I just
- 1:49:12Speaker 1: don't see how you can pencil in enough volume for
- 1:49:15Speaker 1: him to for it to all work out that like
- 1:49:18Speaker 1: all the projections have him around like one hundred and
- 1:49:21Speaker 1: fifty games all career highs. It would be an all
- 1:49:24Speaker 1: career high. Like it's just last year, especially too with
- 1:49:28Speaker 1: the the thigh injury in terms of like whatever the
- 1:49:33Speaker 1: stress reaction is, the shoulder injury, the he's had a
- 1:49:38Speaker 1: side injury, Like it's everything that's going on and I
- 1:49:42Speaker 1: love the player great if you're obviously, like if you're
- 1:49:45Speaker 1: in a supershallow league like an eight teamer ten teamer,
- 1:49:48Speaker 1: and you can use il spots, he becomes more valuable.
- 1:49:52Speaker 1: But in the type of leagues that we're playing in,
- 1:49:54Speaker 1: they're super deep, or they're draft and holds just I
- 1:49:57Speaker 1: don't want any part of for Nino Tattoos Junior because
- 1:50:00Speaker 1: you can't find enough replacement level production to make up
- 1:50:04Speaker 1: for those forty games he's going to miss for you.
- 1:50:07Speaker 2: Yeah, you're sorry. We've talked about this on the podcast before.
- 1:50:11Speaker 2: There's a certain type of player in the major leagues,
- 1:50:13Speaker 2: in all of baseball that they're not injury prone. It's
- 1:50:17Speaker 2: just how they play the game, and they will at
- 1:50:21Speaker 2: some point be hurt. And you know, fun trivia for
- 1:50:26Speaker 2: listeners of the show. Cooley and I like to every
- 1:50:28Speaker 2: once in a while reminisce about the playing days. And
- 1:50:32Speaker 2: I happen to have played a decent amount of baseball
- 1:50:34Speaker 2: back in the day, and I was one of those players.
- 1:50:37Speaker 2: I was always hurt for some reason, and it's just
- 1:50:41Speaker 2: the way you play. Happened to at least one point
- 1:50:43Speaker 2: in time, be a top three in the state I
- 1:50:46Speaker 2: live in. Hit by Pitch Leader for a single season.
- 1:50:49Speaker 2: Not something to be proud of, but hey, a little
- 1:50:51Speaker 2: known facts and the only way you get on the scoreboards.
- 1:50:54Speaker 3: But like, when you play that.
- 1:50:55Speaker 2: Game like that, it's going to drag you down, like
- 1:50:58Speaker 2: it's going to and it's not. It doesn't always show
- 1:51:00Speaker 2: up in the games played. Sometimes it shows up underneath
- 1:51:03Speaker 2: because the production drops by seventy eight percent because you
- 1:51:06Speaker 2: got through things, you you continue to play when you shouldn't.
- 1:51:09Speaker 2: And I think that's what Tatis ends up doing. And
- 1:51:11Speaker 2: that's where you see It's like, man, this guy is
- 1:51:13Speaker 2: a thirty thirty player and then he gets you know,
- 1:51:16Speaker 2: seven percent of the games and fifty percent of the stats,
- 1:51:18Speaker 2: like yeah, because he's he's struggling through injury. And that's
- 1:51:22Speaker 2: almost worse from a fancy perspective when you get a
- 1:51:24Speaker 2: guys that you know, partial production, uh, and you're expecting
- 1:51:27Speaker 2: full production because you can't bench him because you paid
- 1:51:30Speaker 2: so much for him. So I'm right there with you, Tatis.
- 1:51:33Speaker 2: H give me well, third round, maybe fourth before I'd
- 1:51:37Speaker 2: even consider him.
- 1:51:40Speaker 1: What do you think, Taylor is it? Is it too
- 1:51:42Speaker 1: rich for your blood?
- 1:51:44Speaker 4: I love tattoos. I live in San Diego like fifteen
- 1:51:46Speaker 4: minutes away from Peco, so I go see a lot
- 1:51:47Speaker 4: of pottery games. He's such a fun player. But yeah,
- 1:51:50Speaker 4: that's way too high for me. I would even take
- 1:51:53Speaker 4: like you know, you mentioned the risk with like a
- 1:51:55Speaker 4: Corbyn Carrol or even like a Julio. I would take
- 1:51:57Speaker 4: those guys over him. I just we are at least
- 1:52:00Speaker 4: going to give you that volume, right, They're going to provide,
- 1:52:03Speaker 4: you know, some really good floor. It might not be
- 1:52:05Speaker 4: the ceiling you're hoping for, but Katis, you just don't
- 1:52:08Speaker 4: know what you're gonna get out of him.
- 1:52:10Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on to those prospect picks. To click Taylor,
- 1:52:14Speaker 1: who you got?
- 1:52:16Speaker 4: I'm going with another recent draft ye first year player
- 1:52:19Speaker 4: draft pick in Cobb high Tower. Like I mentioned, this
- 1:52:23Speaker 4: is a weaker system now outside of like the really
- 1:52:26Speaker 4: high end guys, and so this is kind of a
- 1:52:29Speaker 4: sneaky FIPD pick. Six foot one eighty right handed hitting
- 1:52:33Speaker 4: shortstop was a third round pick signed away from a
- 1:52:37Speaker 4: unc commitment. Good hit tool, good power, good speed, so
- 1:52:40Speaker 4: kind of that across the board type didn't really have
- 1:52:44Speaker 4: a lot of fanfare coming out of the draft, but
- 1:52:46Speaker 4: reports are particularly from Baseball America, they did a good
- 1:52:50Speaker 4: job of kind of covering the Ridge League. So this
- 1:52:53Speaker 4: year the Complex schedule got moved up, so a lot
- 1:52:56Speaker 4: of the players we would normally see play that Complex,
- 1:52:59Speaker 4: they didn't play in any kind of recorded games they
- 1:53:02Speaker 4: played at this Bridge League, so you couldn't see their
- 1:53:05Speaker 4: stats or anything. But apparently he was like raved about
- 1:53:08Speaker 4: during the Bridge League. Looks like, you know, the tools
- 1:53:11Speaker 4: were a lot louder than what was originally thought. So
- 1:53:13Speaker 4: those are the kind of guys that you want to
- 1:53:14Speaker 4: jump in on early before you know people can really
- 1:53:18Speaker 4: catch on. Like he doesn't have a fangraft page that
- 1:53:20Speaker 4: he didn't play in any you know, recorded games last year,
- 1:53:23Speaker 4: but the reports are there. The one thing I will
- 1:53:25Speaker 4: say is he was older for a high school graduate,
- 1:53:28Speaker 4: nineteen years old, but that also means he's gonna move
- 1:53:31Speaker 4: pretty quickly. The Padres have shown no reservations about pushing
- 1:53:35Speaker 4: their players super aggressively. I mean, they have seventeen year
- 1:53:38Speaker 4: olds playing in the you know, in like double A,
- 1:53:42Speaker 4: so I think in nineteen year old they're going to
- 1:53:44Speaker 4: push him prety quickly because they're really thin at the
- 1:53:46Speaker 4: top of their at their the top of their farm.
- 1:53:50Speaker 4: And I think Cobb high Tower is a name that
- 1:53:52Speaker 4: could really skyrocket.
- 1:53:54Speaker 1: Excellent pick. Yeah, I add him to the list of
- 1:53:58Speaker 1: all of my Dynasty watch lists that you have populated
- 1:54:00Speaker 1: for me. So I appreciate Taylor brew here's your pick
- 1:54:04Speaker 1: to click here in San Diego.
- 1:54:05Speaker 2: I mean, I hate going after Taylor at this point
- 1:54:08Speaker 2: because because he has like analysis and great things, and
- 1:54:11Speaker 2: I'm just sitting here going like, do you remember the
- 1:54:14Speaker 2: Dallas Devrees, Like like, I mean, but we have to
- 1:54:19Speaker 2: talk about it.
- 1:54:20Speaker 3: We have to talk about the guy that you know,
- 1:54:21Speaker 3: was seventeen.
- 1:54:22Speaker 2: Year olds in the Arizona Fall League and making noise
- 1:54:26Speaker 2: and he just looks like a you know, absolute beast.
- 1:54:31Speaker 2: So I think you can't talk about him because I
- 1:54:33Speaker 2: think he's still at this point in time, it's still
- 1:54:36Speaker 2: like for a lot of people, he's still so far
- 1:54:39Speaker 2: away conceptually. Now, I don't think he's actually that far away.
- 1:54:43Speaker 3: I think he actually can to hold his own.
- 1:54:45Speaker 2: He's one of those kind of players that you shouldn't
- 1:54:47Speaker 2: be shocked if you're talking about him in his teenage
- 1:54:49Speaker 2: years of trying to get to the majors. I don't
- 1:54:53Speaker 2: think he'll quite get there, But I think he's one
- 1:54:55Speaker 2: of those that has an unbelievable you know kind of power,
- 1:55:00Speaker 2: has a decent hit tool, and I think he's just
- 1:55:02Speaker 2: gonna get get to get better. And like I said,
- 1:55:04Speaker 2: the fact that the Padres are willing to send him
- 1:55:06Speaker 2: to Fall League and put him up against that older competition,
- 1:55:09Speaker 2: he was facing guys who were seven eight years older
- 1:55:11Speaker 2: than him, Like, he's unbelievable. And so the fact I
- 1:55:14Speaker 2: think he you know, his stat line again doesn't look
- 1:55:16Speaker 2: good kind of like Zyger Hope, like doesn't look like
- 1:55:18Speaker 2: good on the surface, But the way that he was
- 1:55:21Speaker 2: able to handle himself to the learnings he had, I
- 1:55:23Speaker 2: think there's a lot of a lot of helium here.
- 1:55:26Speaker 2: And you know, whether he sticks at short or or
- 1:55:30Speaker 2: moves off, I probably I'm guessing he moves off long term.
- 1:55:33Speaker 2: But there he bat's gonna play anywhere. So uh again,
- 1:55:37Speaker 2: it's a it's a it's a cop out. I fully
- 1:55:39Speaker 2: own that, but I'm I'm absolutely also okay with it.
- 1:55:44Speaker 1: Yeah I love him. Oh go ahead, Yeah, I love
- 1:55:48Speaker 1: him too. So I mean you're the prospect guy, like
- 1:55:51Speaker 1: where is he? Is he top five number one for you?
- 1:55:56Speaker 4: Or I have him at ninth? Okay, I think you
- 1:55:59Speaker 4: can put him if you wanted to be aggressive with him.
- 1:56:02Speaker 4: You could definitely put him in the top five. Like
- 1:56:05Speaker 4: there really isn't a consensus. I mean outside of maybe
- 1:56:08Speaker 4: Rokie if you count him as a prospect, there really
- 1:56:10Speaker 4: isn't a consensus number one prospect. And I think you
- 1:56:13Speaker 4: can make the case he is the top prospect just
- 1:56:15Speaker 4: based off of ceiling. Personally, I want to see a
- 1:56:18Speaker 4: guy perform in the high minors before I kind of
- 1:56:21Speaker 4: boost him that high. But like, this is as high
- 1:56:24Speaker 4: as I will ever rank a seventeen year old because
- 1:56:27Speaker 4: he's just that good. I mean, the top talent coming,
- 1:56:31Speaker 4: you know, out of the international class last year. The
- 1:56:34Speaker 4: Padres are super aggressive. They send him straight to Single A.
- 1:56:38Speaker 4: These guys usually go play a year in the DSL,
- 1:56:41Speaker 4: then they come Stateside, play a year in complex, and
- 1:56:43Speaker 4: then they do full season ball in their third season.
- 1:56:46Speaker 4: The Padres are like, nope, we'll just throw him straight
- 1:56:48Speaker 4: in full season ball. And he was an above average hitter,
- 1:56:50Speaker 4: showed everything you want to see, Like, yeah, the batting
- 1:56:53Speaker 4: average was two thirty seven, but everything else was amazing.
- 1:56:56Speaker 4: And just if he had been right for the level,
- 1:57:00Speaker 4: he was way young for the little age wise, I think,
- 1:57:03Speaker 4: you know, we could see him in double A next year,
- 1:57:04Speaker 4: and he's gonna kind of be that guy, you know,
- 1:57:07Speaker 4: like Sebastian Walcott that you know. It's just people are
- 1:57:11Speaker 4: gonna have him. If they don't already, they're gonna have
- 1:57:13Speaker 4: him potentially as the number one prospect at the end
- 1:57:15Speaker 4: of next year. So I love that call out.
- 1:57:19Speaker 1: All right, well cool, where are you going? Yeah, my
- 1:57:21Speaker 1: pick to click. It was the the other guy that
- 1:57:23Speaker 1: was debating for my buy. It's the other guy when
- 1:57:25Speaker 1: you're right on the roster resource page for the Padres
- 1:57:28Speaker 1: and you're just like, what who is that? And you're
- 1:57:31Speaker 1: also like, oh, this guy is gonna play like every
- 1:57:33Speaker 1: day for the Padres. It's Aggie Rosario, the twenty five
- 1:57:37Speaker 1: year old. He thought it in at DH but I mean,
- 1:57:40Speaker 1: I think he'll get time spelling Manny Machado at third
- 1:57:42Speaker 1: base as well. And part of this is because, I
- 1:57:46Speaker 1: mean the draft price is pretty much free. He's his
- 1:57:49Speaker 1: average ADP and the NFBC Draft Champions is seven to
- 1:57:54Speaker 1: twenty six, so you're looking at he's got to be
- 1:57:57Speaker 1: one of the last starting position players is going in
- 1:58:00Speaker 1: all of drafts, period. And not only is like he
- 1:58:05Speaker 1: walking into a great situation here is San Diego. But
- 1:58:08Speaker 1: I think Rosario has got some really great upside and
- 1:58:11Speaker 1: he impacts the ball really great. The strikeouts are a
- 1:58:13Speaker 1: bit much, but like when you're talking that type of
- 1:58:16Speaker 1: draft price, somebody with like a two thirty average that
- 1:58:19Speaker 1: has the possibility of going fifteen to fifteen with you know,
- 1:58:25Speaker 1: I would say lower tier counting stats because he's gonna
- 1:58:27Speaker 1: bee at the bomb of this Padres lineup. But somebody
- 1:58:30Speaker 1: who can provide just that power speed combo this late
- 1:58:33Speaker 1: in a draft, I think it's all there for Eggie Rosario.
- 1:58:36Speaker 1: That I mean, all of the projections are going to
- 1:58:39Speaker 1: be way too low on him because they have him
- 1:58:41Speaker 1: as a part time player. But it kind of goes
- 1:58:43Speaker 1: back to what we're talking about with ourn Alas. I
- 1:58:46Speaker 1: just don't see who else is coming in here to
- 1:58:48Speaker 1: San Diego to fill this position that Rosario looks like
- 1:58:52Speaker 1: he's a shoe in for somewhere between like five hundred
- 1:58:55Speaker 1: to five hundred and fifty played appearances for the Padres
- 1:58:57Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five.
- 1:59:00Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been I almost actually call.
- 1:59:03Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what we.
- 1:59:05Speaker 2: Still we all agree, Well, we all agree I almost
- 1:59:07Speaker 2: I almost went there as well.
- 1:59:09Speaker 3: So Taylor, go ahead.
- 1:59:10Speaker 4: I always went there as well. Yeah, I've been a
- 1:59:13Speaker 4: fan of his for a long time. He just needs
- 1:59:15Speaker 4: a shot. It looks like he might finally get one
- 1:59:16Speaker 4: this year.
- 1:59:17Speaker 1: All right, Well, we are a bunch of eggy heads here. Last,
- 1:59:22Speaker 1: but not least, we're moving on to your team, Taylor.
- 1:59:24Speaker 1: Here the San Francisco Giants, who brought in your boy
- 1:59:28Speaker 1: Puster Posey to take over this team, and it has
- 1:59:31Speaker 1: been an interesting offseason as they went out and find
- 1:59:34Speaker 1: somebody to take all their money and Willie Domas who
- 1:59:36Speaker 1: should slot in as their starting shortstop and number two hitter.
- 1:59:41Speaker 1: You also have Justin Verlander, the grizzled Vet coming in.
- 1:59:45Speaker 1: But lots of kind of interesting battles going into spring
- 1:59:50Speaker 1: here across the board as a lot of the kind
- 1:59:53Speaker 1: of old Farahans Aedi platoon matchups kind of got to
- 1:59:56Speaker 1: get sorted out over the year. And I think lots
- 2:00:00Speaker 1: of opportunities there, lots of interesting prospects and former prospects,
- 2:00:05Speaker 1: and so lots of buying opportunities here, I think on
- 2:00:09Speaker 1: the Giants. But who is your favorite buy for your
- 2:00:11Speaker 1: San Francisco Giants?
- 2:00:13Speaker 4: Yeah, you mentioned it. There's a lot of buying opportunities here,
- 2:00:15Speaker 4: and maybe I'm just biased, but the one I'm going
- 2:00:18Speaker 4: with is another one that's not currently in the rotation
- 2:00:20Speaker 4: on roster resources, but Hayden birds Song going at a
- 2:00:24Speaker 4: three nine nine ADP right now. I just don't I
- 2:00:26Speaker 4: don't believe in Jordan Hicks as a starter long term.
- 2:00:28Speaker 4: I think he showed that last year. You know, he
- 2:00:31Speaker 4: scuffled after being kind of a hot start out of
- 2:00:33Speaker 4: the gate as the season wore on. And I don't
- 2:00:37Speaker 4: know what Kyle Harrison is anymore. You've got injury concerns
- 2:00:40Speaker 4: there with Robbie Ray, You've got Verlander at the very
- 2:00:43Speaker 4: end of his career. So I think bird Song could
- 2:00:46Speaker 4: win a job out of spring training if he can
- 2:00:48Speaker 4: show the control. And that's really the biggest issue with him,
- 2:00:50Speaker 4: because he has massive, massive strikeout upside eighty third percentile
- 2:00:57Speaker 4: k rate last year, eighty second percentile with rate. He's
- 2:01:00Speaker 4: got three different pitches with a whift rate over thirty
- 2:01:02Speaker 4: percent on his curveball, change up, and slider. All three
- 2:01:05Speaker 4: get fantastic stuff plus grades. You know, he's got a
- 2:01:09Speaker 4: ninety six mile an hour fastball. Again, the only issue
- 2:01:14Speaker 4: with him is just the command is terrible. He's never
- 2:01:17Speaker 4: had a walk rate under ten percent for any prolonged
- 2:01:20Speaker 4: stretch in the minors. And I do think though, with
- 2:01:23Speaker 4: these young pitchers, like they can improve the command. And
- 2:01:26Speaker 4: I think, particularly with all the weirdness that we've seen
- 2:01:29Speaker 4: in the minor leagues with them messing with the strike zone,
- 2:01:31Speaker 4: particularly at Triple A, We've seen so many pitchers when
- 2:01:34Speaker 4: they get from Triple A to the majors they actually
- 2:01:36Speaker 4: improve their walk rates because it's a different zone and
- 2:01:41Speaker 4: because they're getting better coaching in the majors than they
- 2:01:44Speaker 4: were in the minors. So I have faith that the
- 2:01:47Speaker 4: tools are strong enough, the stuff is strong enough that
- 2:01:49Speaker 4: he can figure it out. And he did finish the
- 2:01:51Speaker 4: season strong. He had a nine point eight percent walk rate,
- 2:01:54Speaker 4: a one point one whip over his last four starts.
- 2:01:57Speaker 4: And he's probably never going to be an ass a whip,
- 2:02:01Speaker 4: but particularly in that ballpark, I think he can have
- 2:02:03Speaker 4: a really good era. I think you can have a
- 2:02:05Speaker 4: lot of strikeouts and maybe be like sort of that
- 2:02:08Speaker 4: Robbie Ray type where yeah, you're not kind of want
- 2:02:11Speaker 4: him for whip, but he's gonna help you everywhere else.
- 2:02:14Speaker 1: I love this pick. This was actually my prospect pick
- 2:02:16Speaker 1: to click pride to my too Illinois a field that
- 2:02:20Speaker 1: Brew I'm pretty sure has played on and many times. Yeah,
- 2:02:24Speaker 1: great pit, the great frame, the six foot four frame.
- 2:02:27Speaker 1: This is also like the one of the reasons I
- 2:02:29Speaker 1: called out Verlander is I think this is the type
- 2:02:32Speaker 1: of player that when Verlander is in the bullpen, I
- 2:02:36Speaker 1: want Hayden bird Song sitting right next to Justin Verlander
- 2:02:39Speaker 1: the entire time picking his brain because I think all
- 2:02:43Speaker 1: of the tools from the arsenal just wicked, wicked change
- 2:02:48Speaker 1: up out of bird Song's hand along with just like
- 2:02:51Speaker 1: the the frame. Like I said, I think he's got
- 2:02:54Speaker 1: all the tools that, like the upside here is really
- 2:02:57Speaker 1: really tremendous. I love Hayden bird Song. What do you
- 2:03:03Speaker 1: think of Matune here?
- 2:03:05Speaker 3: Brew, Well, well, they're not going to go there. I'm
- 2:03:09Speaker 3: not gonna talk about Matoun.
- 2:03:10Speaker 2: The ball field is kind of questionable at the best
- 2:03:13Speaker 2: about an hour and a half from here. But you know,
- 2:03:16Speaker 2: it's hard hard to disagree there with with birds Song,
- 2:03:20Speaker 2: I tend to be a guy that shies away from
- 2:03:22Speaker 2: the guys that the control is a little bit questionable
- 2:03:25Speaker 2: in the upper Miners and bird Songs, I think he
- 2:03:28Speaker 2: can can figure it out. But that's like my one
- 2:03:30Speaker 2: red flag with him. A lot of other great things,
- 2:03:32Speaker 2: but like that that control. I mean, it's not on
- 2:03:34Speaker 2: the Kyle Harrison level by any means, because that's that's
- 2:03:38Speaker 2: one end of the spectrum for sure. Uh So that's
- 2:03:40Speaker 2: that's why it has me a little hesitation with bird Song.
- 2:03:43Speaker 2: But it to your point, like it's again that these
- 2:03:48Speaker 2: people are human. I think it was a great call, Taylor,
- 2:03:50Speaker 2: is that like these people are human and they learn
- 2:03:52Speaker 2: and they are just they improve and when you look
- 2:03:56Speaker 2: at the profile, like if that thing clicks, wow, what
- 2:04:00Speaker 2: could you have? And so I think that that's that's
- 2:04:02Speaker 2: it's attractive. I just I tend to steer away from
- 2:04:05Speaker 2: those guys. I just control as a thing that I
- 2:04:08Speaker 2: think you're born with versus your learn.
- 2:04:11Speaker 3: So all right, so for my by and.
- 2:04:15Speaker 2: I'm just scared to death to do in front of
- 2:04:17Speaker 2: Taylor see what he says. But I am going with
- 2:04:20Speaker 2: a reliever. I'm going with Ryan Walker for the fact
- 2:04:24Speaker 2: that he just looked filthy last year. He looked filthy
- 2:04:29Speaker 2: and then I started looking at the closers going off
- 2:04:31Speaker 2: the board again, think of standard Roto here and like
- 2:04:35Speaker 2: he is the last of the tier before it just
- 2:04:38Speaker 2: like starts to fall off a cliff of guys that
- 2:04:40Speaker 2: have like all kinds of questions and issues and things
- 2:04:42Speaker 2: that you just don't want to deal with. And I
- 2:04:44Speaker 2: started looking above him, and I'm like, I kind of
- 2:04:46Speaker 2: feel the same thing all the way up, like the
- 2:04:48Speaker 2: Ryan Helsley, Mason Miller.
- 2:04:49Speaker 3: Type of type of type of range.
- 2:04:51Speaker 2: And so that's but that's like fifty pick difference, Like
- 2:04:54Speaker 2: that's a pretty significant difference between those guys. And it
- 2:04:58Speaker 2: seems like Walker has the job literally has no reason
- 2:05:02Speaker 2: to give it back. And I almost put him kind
- 2:05:05Speaker 2: of as Tanner Scott type of comp that like he
- 2:05:09Speaker 2: did to kind of figure out his his pitch mix
- 2:05:13Speaker 2: a little bit better, like he his he made some
- 2:05:15Speaker 2: adjustments with his his his sinker and if you want
- 2:05:20Speaker 2: to call it, a sweeper slider, and he kind of
- 2:05:22Speaker 2: traded off his vertical movement for his horizontal movement and
- 2:05:25Speaker 2: that just seemed like unlock, uh the next layer for him,
- 2:05:29Speaker 2: And so I think he's gonna be absolutely dominant. I
- 2:05:33Speaker 2: also love the ballpark for him for many many reasons.
- 2:05:36Speaker 3: Uh.
- 2:05:36Speaker 2: So I think Ryan Walker is gonna be great and
- 2:05:38Speaker 2: no offense. I think the Giant's gonna be a lot
- 2:05:40Speaker 2: of close games and so and so. If they can
- 2:05:43Speaker 2: make Camillo Daval a great closer for fantasy, imagine what
- 2:05:47Speaker 2: they can do with Ryan Walker. So, uh, he is
- 2:05:49Speaker 2: definitely a closure number one that I'm targeting. I'm missing
- 2:05:52Speaker 2: that first range and I'm going right after Ryan Walker
- 2:05:54Speaker 2: all day.
- 2:05:55Speaker 4: At that draft price, yeah, I mean I co signed
- 2:06:00Speaker 4: understood why, like his draft cost wasn't higher. Like I
- 2:06:05Speaker 4: know there's a belief that you know, Camilla Deval is
- 2:06:07Speaker 4: gonna come back and take over that role. But I'll
- 2:06:10Speaker 4: get to him in a minute.
- 2:06:13Speaker 1: At the next segment.
- 2:06:15Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean, for all the reasons you just
- 2:06:17Speaker 4: said he was amazing last year, he's got a lock
- 2:06:20Speaker 4: on that job. Like Bob Melvin's always been a one
- 2:06:22Speaker 4: closer guy. They're not going to miss mix a match
- 2:06:24Speaker 4: like He's gonna be the guy and barring like a
- 2:06:28Speaker 4: complete collapse, I don't see him giving up that role.
- 2:06:31Speaker 4: He has a lot more security than a lot of
- 2:06:33Speaker 4: the other you know names going ahead of him for closer.
- 2:06:37Speaker 3: Yeah, I got one, right, I'll take it there you go.
- 2:06:40Speaker 1: All right, Well, I'm feeling a little unsure about my
- 2:06:43Speaker 1: buye because you both kind of detegrated him. As we
- 2:06:46Speaker 1: were talking giants here, mine's actually Kyle Harrison who's going
- 2:06:49Speaker 1: off of the board at average pick of three sixty nine.
- 2:06:52Speaker 1: And mostly because I think this is a great buying opportunity,
- 2:06:55Speaker 1: because last year was a career high in innings for
- 2:07:00Speaker 1: Kyle Harrison with the one hundred and twenty four. Previously
- 2:07:04Speaker 1: his high was one thirteen back in twenty twenty two.
- 2:07:07Speaker 1: So you can see it pretty clearly in the splits
- 2:07:10Speaker 1: for Harrison that as the season went on, he just
- 2:07:14Speaker 1: wore down the FIP by month. As you're looking at it,
- 2:07:19Speaker 1: I just had it and scrolled away. Let me get
- 2:07:21Speaker 1: back fip for March April three eighty nine, May forty five,
- 2:07:26Speaker 1: June one eighty seven, July three fifty six, August five
- 2:07:29Speaker 1: eighty seven, September sixth ninety two. On top of it,
- 2:07:34Speaker 1: he also rolled his ankle there like around that July
- 2:07:38Speaker 1: ish time, and that caused a little bit of like
- 2:07:41Speaker 1: a change to his overall mechanics and led to a
- 2:07:46Speaker 1: little bit of a sore shoulder. So when Kyle Harrison
- 2:07:50Speaker 1: was on, it was humming during the middle of the season,
- 2:07:53Speaker 1: and so I think there is still a lot of
- 2:07:55Speaker 1: upside here because he's gone through the season of you know,
- 2:07:59Speaker 1: putting up one hundred in twenty four innings. You're hoping
- 2:08:02Speaker 1: that he can make the jump to like one hundred
- 2:08:03Speaker 1: and forty again going back to that. Justin Verlander, like
- 2:08:07Speaker 1: just other coach in the room, I think this could
- 2:08:10Speaker 1: be a year that I mean, Kyle Harrison's only going
- 2:08:12Speaker 1: to be turning into his twenty three age twenty three
- 2:08:14Speaker 1: season a lot. I mean, all the projections are great.
- 2:08:18Speaker 1: All of them have him around a four at RA
- 2:08:20Speaker 1: with nine k per nine, around a three point three
- 2:08:25Speaker 1: walk per nine. I think this could be a really
- 2:08:27Speaker 1: breakout season for Kyle Harrison.
- 2:08:31Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I want to agree with you.
- 2:08:34Speaker 3: I want to.
- 2:08:36Speaker 4: I just I don't know what Kyle Harrison is because
- 2:08:38Speaker 4: you look at it if the minors and if Brewer
- 2:08:40Speaker 4: talked about it, like he had the worst walk rates
- 2:08:42Speaker 4: his minor league career, but he struck out everyone, and
- 2:08:44Speaker 4: then he gets to the majors and like the k
- 2:08:46Speaker 4: rate just plummets, but then he's not walking anyone anymore,
- 2:08:49Speaker 4: and like the stuff is not what it was supposed
- 2:08:51Speaker 4: to be.
- 2:08:52Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 2:08:53Speaker 4: I've read some stories this offseason to your point, Mike,
- 2:08:56Speaker 4: like they're talking about, you know, Harrison has talked about,
- 2:09:00Speaker 4: and I think Buster's talked about they need to work
- 2:09:03Speaker 4: on his you know, off season regimen to get him
- 2:09:07Speaker 4: to be able to hold up over the course of
- 2:09:08Speaker 4: a year, and they believe they can do that. They
- 2:09:10Speaker 4: also talked about they believe they can get more of
- 2:09:13Speaker 4: the strikeout stuff back, they can get more of the
- 2:09:17Speaker 4: the the shape and the velo on the fastball back.
- 2:09:19Speaker 4: So he definitely has the upside. He's going dirt cheap
- 2:09:24Speaker 4: right now, and there's kind of a floor there too.
- 2:09:27Speaker 4: So I do like this as as a pretty sneaky pick.
- 2:09:30Speaker 1: Yeah, I appreciate look at this. We might be giants
- 2:09:32Speaker 1: experts around here. Bert.
- 2:09:34Speaker 3: I don't like it, but.
- 2:09:39Speaker 2: But that's that's besides the point'na. I'm gonna defer to
- 2:09:41Speaker 2: Taylor here. He kind of he tried to be nice
- 2:09:44Speaker 2: with it, but he just did a nice way to
- 2:09:45Speaker 2: say he also didn't like it. So I'm just gonna
- 2:09:49Speaker 2: I'm gonna let him be polite instead of what I
- 2:09:51Speaker 2: typically do to you.
- 2:09:52Speaker 1: So ego, we'll move on. Okay, Taylor, you alluded to
- 2:09:56Speaker 1: yourself being Devaul, give us why.
- 2:09:58Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he's not he's I'm gonna get that
- 2:10:00Speaker 4: closer roll back three eighty nine ADP right now, which
- 2:10:03Speaker 4: is just kind of ridiculous for a guy that you know,
- 2:10:06Speaker 4: he really has no shot because he completely lost his
- 2:10:09Speaker 4: control last year. Like he went from being closer one
- 2:10:12Speaker 4: day to being in tripa a literally the next day.
- 2:10:14Speaker 4: There was no like we're gonna we're gonna take him
- 2:10:17Speaker 4: out of the role and like, see what happens. No,
- 2:10:19Speaker 4: he was They're like, you're out, and we're so disgusted
- 2:10:22Speaker 4: with you that you're going to the miners, which just
- 2:10:25Speaker 4: never happens. So he spent some time in the miners,
- 2:10:27Speaker 4: and like it just it never got better. The walk
- 2:10:31Speaker 4: rate just got worse and worse as the season went on.
- 2:10:34Speaker 4: And then he went to winter ball this year, and
- 2:10:36Speaker 4: he is way overqualified for winter ball, but he walked
- 2:10:41Speaker 4: six in six and a third winning innings in winter ball,
- 2:10:43Speaker 4: so he's no closer to figuring out the control issues.
- 2:10:46Speaker 4: It hurts me because he's just such a fun guy
- 2:10:49Speaker 4: when he's on the stuff is nasty, But sometimes these relievers,
- 2:10:54Speaker 4: they just they lose that control and they don't get
- 2:10:56Speaker 4: it back. And even if he gets it back. I
- 2:10:59Speaker 4: don't think no, you know, if Melvin was disgusted enough
- 2:11:02Speaker 4: with him to send him to the minors to banish him,
- 2:11:05Speaker 4: I don't think he's gonna be in a hurry to
- 2:11:06Speaker 4: put him back in that role over Ryan Walker.
- 2:11:09Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's totally fair.
- 2:11:11Speaker 2: The only thing I can say with Deval is I
- 2:11:13Speaker 2: was looking at his stat cast just for fun, and
- 2:11:16Speaker 2: his number one comp will shock you. It's Ryan Walker.
- 2:11:21Speaker 2: So personally, I think stat cast is broken and then
- 2:11:23Speaker 2: we'll need to move on. But I just found that hilarious.
- 2:11:26Speaker 2: I clearly didn't bring that up when talking about Ryan Walker,
- 2:11:29Speaker 2: but since you had to go there, I had to.
- 2:11:30Speaker 3: I had to share that nuggets.
- 2:11:32Speaker 1: So who's your cell here? Brew?
- 2:11:33Speaker 3: Oh, I'm sorry, I am.
- 2:11:36Speaker 2: You spent a lot of money on him, but why
- 2:11:38Speaker 2: will ye We've disparaged him on this pot a few times,
- 2:11:43Speaker 2: like he's not a twenty stolen base guy like he
- 2:11:47Speaker 2: played for the Brewers who just like felt like running
- 2:11:50Speaker 2: for an entire like a few years, just for fun
- 2:11:52Speaker 2: to see what would happen.
- 2:11:54Speaker 3: And that's that's not going to continue.
- 2:11:56Speaker 2: He's gonna if he eclipses ten, I'll I'll send you
- 2:11:59Speaker 2: a drink, like, I just don't see it happening. The
- 2:12:02Speaker 2: power was a lot better in Milwaukee, and it's gonna
- 2:12:06Speaker 2: take a tank here in San Francisco. You know, third
- 2:12:09Speaker 2: worst ballpark for right handed hitters.
- 2:12:10Speaker 3: For power. It's just not what you want to do.
- 2:12:13Speaker 2: The lineup, it's it's okay, it's you know, so those
- 2:12:18Speaker 2: counting stats one hundred twelve RBIs he had last season
- 2:12:21Speaker 2: ninety three runs, Like, let's drop that back to what
- 2:12:23Speaker 2: he did in twenty three, twenty two, and the kind
- 2:12:26Speaker 2: of that eighty ish range, like all of these things
- 2:12:29Speaker 2: just have to come back to earth. And I think
- 2:12:31Speaker 2: we're paying not for exactly last year, but we're paying
- 2:12:35Speaker 2: for like ninety ninety five percent of last year. At
- 2:12:37Speaker 2: the draft table, give me Matt McClain behind him. I'm
- 2:12:40Speaker 2: not gonna take Boba Shet, but give me Xander, like
- 2:12:44Speaker 2: give me man, give me Mason Win. I'll even take
- 2:12:47Speaker 2: him just for the speed and the average upside. There's
- 2:12:50Speaker 2: just a lot of other guys that I would much
- 2:12:52Speaker 2: rather have than the Damas, because I think everybody's drafting
- 2:12:56Speaker 2: him looking at that speed going. Man, he figured something out,
- 2:12:59Speaker 2: and I'm gonna I'm gonna to take advantage, But why
- 2:13:02Speaker 2: do don't you want a thirty twenty guy.
- 2:13:04Speaker 3: I think he's gonna be a twenty maybe.
- 2:13:08Speaker 2: Five to six guy with a two forty average, Like,
- 2:13:12Speaker 2: I have zero interest in that. He's not at Lewis
- 2:13:15Speaker 2: Arria's level. He's not a do not draft, but he
- 2:13:18Speaker 2: is a do not draft for another five to seven
- 2:13:20Speaker 2: rounds for me. So I apologize.
- 2:13:23Speaker 3: You spent a lot of money over there, Taylor, but
- 2:13:25Speaker 3: it was not well, So it wasn't my buddy.
- 2:13:31Speaker 1: Yeah, this is myself. I mean you nailed it all,
- 2:13:33Speaker 1: and I mean I think he's a great real life
- 2:13:36Speaker 1: player and stuff, but it's the problem now is like
- 2:13:39Speaker 1: that's not matching the fantasy profile and you can see
- 2:13:42Speaker 1: it even like in the average ADP. It is just
- 2:13:46Speaker 1: in free fall that I think he's going to progressively
- 2:13:49Speaker 1: fall more and more throughout draft season. Maybe the price
- 2:13:52Speaker 1: bowl even out, but currently where his cost is in
- 2:13:56Speaker 1: the top one hundred picks, I can't pay up for
- 2:13:58Speaker 1: Willia Thomas.
- 2:14:00Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't blame you, guys. I mean I was
- 2:14:02Speaker 4: excited from a real life standpoint, but from a fancy standpoint,
- 2:14:05Speaker 4: it's it's a really bad landing spot. And yeah, I
- 2:14:08Speaker 4: think I'm gonna wait till, you know, hopefully the ADP
- 2:14:11Speaker 4: does go down enough that he becomes a value, but
- 2:14:14Speaker 4: at this point there's not enough of a discount for
- 2:14:18Speaker 4: the downturn that he's about to take.
- 2:14:20Speaker 1: Yeah, so here's your prospect pick to click here on
- 2:14:23Speaker 1: your own team, Taylor.
- 2:14:25Speaker 4: Yeah. So I'm gonna go fairly deep here in a
- 2:14:27Speaker 4: guy that I feel really strongly is going to break
- 2:14:29Speaker 4: out in a big way this year. And his name
- 2:14:31Speaker 4: is Johnny Level, which is just a cool name, Johnny,
- 2:14:35Speaker 4: like Johnny Peralta j h N Why But he's a
- 2:14:39Speaker 4: five to ten one hundred and fifty four pounds I
- 2:14:42Speaker 4: don't know if that's still accurate. But switch hitting shortstop though,
- 2:14:46Speaker 4: which means there's a lot of projection. Okay, was a
- 2:14:49Speaker 4: million dollars signing out of Venezuela last year. According to MLB,
- 2:14:54Speaker 4: Pipeline had some of the best bat speed in the
- 2:14:56Speaker 4: class from both sides. They comped him to Raphael for Call,
- 2:15:01Speaker 4: who I don't know if you guys remember him, but
- 2:15:03Speaker 4: pretty pretty solid player back in the day, and he
- 2:15:07Speaker 4: didn't really get a lot of publicity, like he was
- 2:15:09Speaker 4: the Giant's top signing international period last year, but didn't
- 2:15:13Speaker 4: get draft anywhere, didn't get a lot of publicity, got
- 2:15:15Speaker 4: off to a slow start in the DSL, just to
- 2:15:17Speaker 4: hit one forty three in his first fourteen games, and
- 2:15:20Speaker 4: then he just turned it on and just had a
- 2:15:23Speaker 4: fantastic rest of the year. He slashed three twenty six,
- 2:15:26Speaker 4: four thirty two, six twenty eight, slugging nine home runs,
- 2:15:29Speaker 4: twelve stolen bases, almost had as many walks as strikeouts
- 2:15:33Speaker 4: thirteen point five percent walk rate, just a fourteen point
- 2:15:35Speaker 4: eight percent k rate. Had some ground ball issues early on,
- 2:15:38Speaker 4: but learned how to like raise his launch angle as
- 2:15:41Speaker 4: the season more on, and EV's were really strong for
- 2:15:44Speaker 4: his age. Had great contact, great approach, has plus speed,
- 2:15:49Speaker 4: like everything you want out of these like young international guys,
- 2:15:53Speaker 4: like true twenty twenty potential, and nobody is talking about
- 2:15:56Speaker 4: him like he's on, Like I'm in some pretty deep
- 2:15:59Speaker 4: dynasty leagues, and he's out there just as a free
- 2:16:03Speaker 4: agent waiting to be picked up because he's not getting
- 2:16:05Speaker 4: any respect anywhere. And I think this year he's gonna
- 2:16:08Speaker 4: fly up Fantasy rankings and dynasty rankings if you know
- 2:16:13Speaker 4: he can perform well stateside, and I really think he.
- 2:16:15Speaker 1: Can Yeah, I love this peck. It's almost like it
- 2:16:18Speaker 1: reminds me a little bit of like hayes U's Maade,
- 2:16:21Speaker 1: where like he could just really fly up. But I
- 2:16:23Speaker 1: think even more power here in this profile that I'm
- 2:16:26Speaker 1: feeling really smart because like what I do is Brew
- 2:16:30Speaker 1: knows this is like a lot of what I do,
- 2:16:32Speaker 1: like is just like leaderboard scouting by going through by
- 2:16:36Speaker 1: age and I'm running that on all my Autnue like
- 2:16:40Speaker 1: watchless I did. I had a star on Johnny level
- 2:16:43Speaker 1: because he popped with that one forty WRC plus he
- 2:16:46Speaker 1: put up as a seventeen year old down there. It was.
- 2:16:49Speaker 1: It's an insane stat line that I think this is
- 2:16:52Speaker 1: a great pick that if you're looking for somebody who
- 2:16:54Speaker 1: can really just reach that level almost like I mean
- 2:16:58Speaker 1: a layer dollars degrees or something like that, where like
- 2:17:00Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of growth in levels profile. Brew,
- 2:17:07Speaker 1: who is your pick to click here for San Francisco?
- 2:17:09Speaker 1: Because I already gave mine in Birdsong?
- 2:17:12Speaker 2: Yeah, well I'm gonna go back to the quadae player
- 2:17:15Speaker 2: because you know, why not? And a guy that I
- 2:17:18Speaker 2: think for about three years now, I've been waiting for
- 2:17:21Speaker 2: to break out. I wonder if Taylor can pick it
- 2:17:23Speaker 2: up from there, and that is Luis Matos. And when
- 2:17:28Speaker 2: I look at the profile of Luis Mato's a guy
- 2:17:31Speaker 2: that has great plate discipline, has sneaky power, like that
- 2:17:35Speaker 2: guy is much stronger than you realize, can steal a
- 2:17:39Speaker 2: few bags and has a pretty decent hit tool. I
- 2:17:42Speaker 2: just feel like the Giants have not given him the
- 2:17:44Speaker 2: chance to actually run with the job, and I think
- 2:17:47Speaker 2: if they do, like he can actually be one of
- 2:17:50Speaker 2: those really sneaky values. He's never gonna be like an
- 2:17:54Speaker 2: All Star by any means, but he's like that like
- 2:17:57Speaker 2: amazing fourth outfielder that you're just like year and year out,
- 2:18:00Speaker 2: like he's undervalue. You pick him up, he goes, you know,
- 2:18:04Speaker 2: twenty ten, two eighty five, and you plug him in
- 2:18:08Speaker 2: next year does the same thing, and everybody doesn't want
- 2:18:09Speaker 2: to draft him. Like I think that's what Louis Manto's
- 2:18:12Speaker 2: in and then he has a few good years that
- 2:18:13Speaker 2: might make an All Star team here or there if
- 2:18:16Speaker 2: they let him play like that's all I'm asking in
- 2:18:18Speaker 2: San Francisco. Let the guy play like he goes into
- 2:18:21Speaker 2: spring train last year, he just was launching the ball
- 2:18:23Speaker 2: everywhere and then no, not really, We're not gonna We're
- 2:18:27Speaker 2: gonna give you some some cups coffee.
- 2:18:28Speaker 3: He got a little hurt.
- 2:18:29Speaker 2: I get that, But I just I can't quit Louis
- 2:18:32Speaker 2: Manto's ever since I've kind of looked at that profile.
- 2:18:35Speaker 2: He just beats everything that I want of a hitter.
- 2:18:37Speaker 2: The just be sneaky, valuable, and it's just just not
- 2:18:41Speaker 2: coming to fruition.
- 2:18:42Speaker 3: So I could be wrong.
- 2:18:43Speaker 2: I could be playing in this song for the next
- 2:18:46Speaker 2: few years, but just give him a chance to play.
- 2:18:50Speaker 1: I love this And now that you've got your young
- 2:18:53Speaker 1: kil Fernandez, we can watch that together. Yeah, go ahead,
- 2:19:02Speaker 1: Yeah no, I was gonna say, Taylor, I think Mantos
- 2:19:04Speaker 1: is probably a little bit better than Fernandez. What do
- 2:19:06Speaker 1: you think? I mean?
- 2:19:08Speaker 4: I can't. I can't quit Matos. I just I still
- 2:19:11Speaker 4: believe for all the reasons we were mentioned, like just
- 2:19:14Speaker 4: great contact, he does a little bit of everything, Like
- 2:19:17Speaker 4: could he not be what we were talking about Xander
- 2:19:19Speaker 4: Bogart's like that kind of fifteen home run, fifteen stolen base,
- 2:19:23Speaker 4: like good batting average, Like that's the hope with Louis Montos,
- 2:19:25Speaker 4: Like he's never gonna hit thirty home runs or anything.
- 2:19:28Speaker 4: Or steal thirty bases. But he could just be a
- 2:19:30Speaker 4: really really good high floor hitter, like a good like
- 2:19:33Speaker 4: points League hitter. And yeah, I think they're gonna give
- 2:19:37Speaker 4: him run like mike Yastremski. They were trying to trade him.
- 2:19:40Speaker 4: I think this offseason. I don't think he's gonna be
- 2:19:42Speaker 4: there forever like they they they already kind of had
- 2:19:45Speaker 4: one prospect reclamation project last year and Elliott Ramos like,
- 2:19:48Speaker 4: why not do the same thing with with Louis Montos.
- 2:19:51Speaker 4: I definitely think he could have kind of that similar
- 2:19:54Speaker 4: bounce back.
- 2:19:56Speaker 1: Awesome. All right, Well that wraps us up here for
- 2:19:59Speaker 1: the NL West. Where's you going to go around the
- 2:20:00Speaker 1: horn real quick? Who do we think wins this division?
- 2:20:03Speaker 1: Taylor Hmmm, I'm gonna go with the Dodgers.
- 2:20:08Speaker 3: Yes, rub Why are we even doing this?
- 2:20:11Speaker 1: Hey, I gotta put it on the record. I need
- 2:20:13Speaker 1: it on the record.
- 2:20:15Speaker 3: It's the Dodgers.
- 2:20:17Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, Dodgers.
- 2:20:18Speaker 2: Next time, can we say who gets the wild card?
- 2:20:20Speaker 2: And I'll be a little more fun, but I'll take
- 2:20:21Speaker 2: the Dodgers.
- 2:20:22Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean it's yeah, gonna be a clean
- 2:20:25Speaker 1: sweep if they don't win, if they don't like beat
- 2:20:27Speaker 1: the all time wins record one of these years. It's
- 2:20:29Speaker 1: going to be almost more of a surprise than anything else.
- 2:20:32Speaker 1: But all right, that reps us up for the NL
- 2:20:34Speaker 1: West Taylor, thank you so much for joining us. Let
- 2:20:37Speaker 1: everybody know once again where they can find your work
- 2:20:39Speaker 1: and reach you on socials.
- 2:20:41Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me, guys, this was a blast.
- 2:20:45Speaker 4: You can find me again on X and Blue Sky
- 2:20:48Speaker 4: at Dynasty Pickups. You can find my work over at
- 2:20:52Speaker 4: Prospects Live, and then my podcast weekly comes out on Sundays,
- 2:20:57Speaker 4: the Dynasty Baseball Pickups Podcast.
- 2:21:00Speaker 1: Awesome, Thanks Jeremy. Where can we find your work and
- 2:21:03Speaker 1: reach your on socials?
- 2:21:04Speaker 2: Yep, fanks me on socials on X and Blue Sky,
- 2:21:07Speaker 2: Jaybrewer one seven, find me on the weekend Sundays writing
- 2:21:10Speaker 2: your hitter profiles top one hundred hitters for the fantasy
- 2:21:13Speaker 2: season over on rasball, come harass me. My comment reminders
- 2:21:18Speaker 2: were not working this weekend, so I forgot to respond
- 2:21:20Speaker 2: everybody until earlier today. But please come out interacted. I
- 2:21:24Speaker 2: will actually respond this weekend when you do so coolly,
- 2:21:28Speaker 2: how about you?
- 2:21:30Speaker 1: Yes, you can obviously find be on rasball doing those
- 2:21:32Speaker 1: waiver wires when the season kicks off, this podcast will
- 2:21:36Speaker 1: still keep on trucking along. We've got four more previews
- 2:21:39Speaker 1: of those divisions coming to you, And if you want
- 2:21:43Speaker 1: to reach me on socials, you can do so at
- 2:21:46Speaker 1: m cool seven mco UI l L and you can
- 2:21:52Speaker 1: reach the podcast at cards Categories at gmail dot com
- 2:21:56Speaker 1: or cards Categories on socials as well. So thanks everybody
- 2:22:00Speaker 1: for checking out this nl West preview. We'll be back,
- 2:22:03Speaker 1: same time, same place next week