Latest / Financial Survival Network / Iran, Inflation, and Economic Reality - Bill Walton #6422

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Iran, Inflation, and Economic Reality - Bill Walton #6422 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You're listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
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• 0:27
  Speaker 2: And welcome back. You are listening to and watching the
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Cary Lutz. And with
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: us today is Bill Walton. We're going to be talking
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  Speaker 2: about the economy, the war, and what the heck is
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  Speaker 2: really going on. It's great to have you back on, Bill.
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  Speaker 3: Thanks for having me back on. I always enjoy this show.
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  Speaker 2: Likewise. So, well, I guess we should probably talk about
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  Speaker 2: the war first. I think the last time we spoke,
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  Speaker 2: neither of us were thrilled with the way it was progressing.
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  Speaker 2: But it looks like it's reached a level, I don't
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  Speaker 2: know what you would say, consistency here of basically it
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  Speaker 2: looks like Iran's almost out of bullets or they're concerned
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  Speaker 2: enough so that they're causing trouble to their neighbors. One
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  Speaker 2: thing I find really interesting is all the missiles, all
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  Speaker 2: the drones, everything else they fired at our ships, not
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  Speaker 2: one single ship has been hit. one naval ship has
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  Speaker 2: been hit since the beginning of the war.
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  Speaker 3: Well, they're claiming they're firing them. I don't know whether
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  Speaker 3: we believe even that. It's astonishing. I saw a piece
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  Speaker 3: on X last week where somebody had gone on to,
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  Speaker 3: I think, rock or Claude or one of the AI
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  Speaker 3: databases and started pushing it really hard saying, okay, so
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  Speaker 3: tell me what's really going on with Iran and what's
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  Speaker 3: happening with the military victory or defeat and whatever. And
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  Speaker 3: it was an incredible analysis that at first Grok came
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  Speaker 3: back and, you know, Grok's pretty liberal and it ate,
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  Speaker 3: not Grok, but Claude. You know, that's Agnelli. He wants
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  Speaker 3: a socialist... Internet or AI. Anyway, so it came back
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  Speaker 3: and it said, oh, it's fine. And it's not fine,
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  Speaker 3: but Iran's putting up a stout defense and the United
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  Speaker 3: States has really been surprised by their ferocious resistance. Well,
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  Speaker 3: and then whoever was doing this said, Claude, I don't
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  Speaker 3: think that's accurate. Where are you getting your information? And
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: it tested out. Well, it was from the New York
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  Speaker 3: Times and Washington Post and ABC News and TV. And
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: you believe these large language models, they go out to
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  Speaker 3: the usual suspects, the initial media that is definitely not
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: hopeful that Trump succeeds at anything. And he pressed him.
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  Speaker 3: He said, look, I think we need to get some
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  Speaker 3: more primary sources. And he went on and on and on.
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  Speaker 3: I think there were three or four iterations. And what
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  Speaker 3: came back was Claude said, the United States has never
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  Speaker 3: had a more decisive military victory in history was such
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  Speaker 3: a low loss of life. And then it ticked off
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  Speaker 3: the loss of manpower, the loss of their nuclear bomb-making capability,
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  Speaker 3: et cetera, all down the list. And it painted a
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  Speaker 3: very different picture. And then it did something else. It said, well,
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  Speaker 3: it pressed harder. So where is the mainstream media getting
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  Speaker 3: your information? And it turned out that most of what
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  Speaker 3: we're seeing reported is our talking points from Iran, from
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  Speaker 3: the Iran Ministry of Information. And so we're getting news
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  Speaker 3: about this, which if you're just catching a soundbite on news,
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  Speaker 3: nightly TV or a headline in the Times or something
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  Speaker 3: like that, America's getting an incredibly biased or distorted view
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  Speaker 3: of what's happening. Now, having said that, I don't even,
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  Speaker 3: you know, my tagline for my new show is trying
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: to flourish in an airless age. By that, I mean
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  Speaker 3: a lot of things. But one of them is we
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  Speaker 3: just can't tell what we're being told is true, what
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  Speaker 3: the agenda is, who's coming in behind it. And even
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  Speaker 3: the X analysis with Claude, I hold that lightly. I'm
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  Speaker 3: not sure that that's right, but it sounds right. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: we've got somebody who's reputable. as Victor Davis Hanson saying,
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  Speaker 3: essentially the same thing. And we've got some other people
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  Speaker 3: who are serious thinkers and observers who are also agreeing
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  Speaker 3: with that. But, you know, having said that, the agenda-driven
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  Speaker 3: news cycle is such that, you know, I think we're
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  Speaker 3: just going to have a little more time to pass.
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  Speaker 3: And if Iran really is running out of bullets, we're
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  Speaker 3: going to find out very soon, I think.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, it's funny. I ran the analysis. through Gemini
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  Speaker 2: of all places. Google hardly loves Trump. Yeah, but it
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  Speaker 2: was like, how do we explain it? In such a
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  Speaker 2: way that it basically said that we're winning, that there's
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  Speaker 2: information that's available on Gemini, if you know where to
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  Speaker 2: look for it, that you can't find elsewhere. And that
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  Speaker 2: is that The escalation of the battle between the Kurds
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  Speaker 2: and the IRGC and the Azeris is taking place, and
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  Speaker 2: it's pinned down a large portion of the Iraqi guard there.
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  Speaker 2: And they've been attacking them. Somewhere like around 20% of
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  Speaker 2: their attacks were on the Kurds. And basically that a
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  Speaker 2: lot of the U.S. anti-missile capability was set up there,
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  Speaker 2: and that there's a whole deserter force present in Kurdistan.
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  Speaker 2: The regular Iranian army has deserted a large portion of them.
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  Speaker 2: There is what we would call 1099 U.S. employees, well,
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  Speaker 2: not employees.
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  Speaker 3: Independent contractors. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Right. There are independent contractors working for the government because
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  Speaker 2: the government doesn't want to send W2 employees onto the
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  Speaker 2: ground there. But they've been training them in drone warfare
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  Speaker 2: and basically keeping half of Iran's military pinned down on
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  Speaker 2: the north and the western borders. And so we're totally
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  Speaker 2: not getting an accurate picture. peak from the media. But
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  Speaker 2: the good thing about Gemini is it pulls from all
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  Speaker 2: over the world and its current X drop, you know,
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  Speaker 2: is an issue because it's getting it from not necessarily
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  Speaker 2: the most reliable, right? The most reliable sources, right? But,
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  Speaker 2: you know, I just found it really interesting that this
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  Speaker 2: is what's going on here. And it's really hard to
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  Speaker 2: get an idea of what is exactly going on. But
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  Speaker 2: just from the surface, they're crumbling, Iran. They can't pay
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  Speaker 2: their troops. They can't pay their military, their security forces.
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  Speaker 2: And it's not just that they can't, their currency's worthless.
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  Speaker 2: Their economy has basically been shut down. This is all true. And,
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  Speaker 2: you know, they said three times that they sank the
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: Abraham Lincoln. Right. They said three times that they sank it.
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  Speaker 2: And yet there was the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in Thailand.
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  Speaker 2: It looked a little worn, you know, a lot of rust.
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  Speaker 2: but it was there intact, right? So you totally can't
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  Speaker 2: believe anything that they're saying, right?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a midterm news cycle, and they don't want
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  Speaker 3: anything to make Trump look like he succeeded before November.
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  Speaker 3: That's for sure. So it's going to be a news
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  Speaker 3: blackout if there's any good news to come out of there. And,
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  Speaker 3: you know, I think Trump could do a better job
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  Speaker 3: making his case. I mean, he gets a little well,
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  Speaker 3: he gets a little Trump-like and I think hurts himself
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  Speaker 3: when he wants to communicate. I think you ought to
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  Speaker 3: hire Victor David Hanson as his spokesman because Victor can
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  Speaker 3: explain this in a way that makes it understandable and credible.
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  Speaker 3: And he's taking the point of view that more or
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  Speaker 3: less aligns with what we're saying.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think based on all the information
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  Speaker 2: that we've got, the fact that oil industry is shut down,
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  Speaker 2: the blockade, The fact that it appears that ships are
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  Speaker 2: able to come and go through the Strait of Hormuz,
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  Speaker 2: you know. Basically, my feeling is we've been preparing for
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  Speaker 2: this war for 47 years. Right. And to think now
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  Speaker 2: that somehow we don't know what we're doing there is
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  Speaker 2: it's just naive, you know.
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  Speaker 3: Well, the military has tremendous capabilities to do just what
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  Speaker 3: Trump says it done and is doing. And the other
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  Speaker 3: thing is that the oil supply, it's astonishing to me,
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  Speaker 3: the market really works in an amazing way because as
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  Speaker 3: soon as you think you've got a choke point in
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  Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz, it'll Everybody adapts, and they start
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  Speaker 3: thinking about oil pipelines in the north. They start thinking
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  Speaker 3: about other ways to get around so they don't have
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  Speaker 3: to use the strait. And people are highly entrepreneurial, especially
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  Speaker 3: businessmen who are trying to figure out how to make
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  Speaker 3: a living, keep their businesses going. And so it's adapting.
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  Speaker 3: The market is adapting. It's just a question of time
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  Speaker 3: before the Straits of Hermosa becomes– Marginal.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's happening now. And the price of oil is
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  Speaker 2: the ultimate proof.
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  Speaker 3: Well, Trump does have a problem, though, because I just
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  Speaker 3: saw yesterday that the price of gasoline is about a
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  Speaker 3: buck higher than it was a year ago. And we
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  Speaker 3: talk about the economy. I mean, I don't even pay
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  Speaker 3: attention to GDP numbers anymore because it depends on it.
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  Speaker 3: so many other things that measure. What does matter is
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  Speaker 3: what people pay for gasoline, what they pay for food,
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  Speaker 3: what they pay for rent. There are only like four
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  Speaker 3: or five or six economic data points that matter. And
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  Speaker 3: right now, those really haven't turned around enough to make
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  Speaker 3: people feel like it's, most people feel like it's a
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  Speaker 3: good economy. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Well, agreed. And the price of gas is definitely higher.
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  Speaker 2: But on the other hand, you know, It isn't as
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  Speaker 2: high as it could have been and as it was,
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  Speaker 2: but we might see an October surprise and might see
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  Speaker 2: it come down a buck a gallon. You never know.
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  Speaker 2: But about the economy, obviously, it's not fully functioning like
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  Speaker 2: a normal economy, but it's not in a recession either.
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  Speaker 2: The employment numbers, if you can believe them, have basically,
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  Speaker 2: you know, stayed up pretty well.
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  Speaker 3: Well, anybody who wants a job can get a job.
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  Speaker 3: That's the economy we're in. And the only limiting factor
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  Speaker 3: is that a lot of kids are not, or even
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  Speaker 3: middle-aged people are not really qualified for the jobs that
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  Speaker 3: are available. And that, you know, we always get, everything
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: always seems to revert back to the schools. The failure,
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  Speaker 3: there's only, I think I saw something recently where only
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  Speaker 3: a third of America as fourth grade, let me get
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  Speaker 3: this age group right, has the reading skill set, math
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  Speaker 3: skill set of a 10-year-old. And so we've got a
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  Speaker 3: lot of people that are not really qualified to work
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  Speaker 3: in the modern economy. that requires some degree of math
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: and verbal and social skills. So we've got this mismatch
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  Speaker 3: where there's lots and lots of jobs available, even with
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  Speaker 3: this threat of AI taking jobs, there's still ways to,
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: you know, get a pretty good one, but either a, they're,
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  Speaker 3: they're unqualified or B they're unmotivated because of all the
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: other subsidies people have been able to take advantage of. So,
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  Speaker 3: so it's, you know, the unemployment numbers, the, I think the,
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  Speaker 3: it's quite low, maybe historically low, but we also have
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  Speaker 3: got to look at the, how many people want to
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  Speaker 3: participate in the economy. And it used to be that
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: 90% of men, 95% of men, you know, 40, 50
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: years ago were in the, in the, in the job economy,
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: actively looking and employed. And now that's dropped to, I
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: think the number is almost 60%. So you've got an
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  Speaker 3: awful lot of men who've taken themselves out of play. Um,
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  Speaker 3: And but, you know, people, I don't see starvation, you know,
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: in the average level of wealth and households. If you
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: think about, you know, Internet and TV and cars and
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: things like that, there are lots of even if you're
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: in the lower income world, there's still lots of ways
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  Speaker 3: that make life pretty good.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah. So what is that old saying? The economists predicted
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  Speaker 2: five out of the last two economists. Recessions, right?
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. And the Federal Reserve has never predicted one correctly.
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  Speaker 3: And they've been trying for 100 and, oh, my God,
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: 115 years. They've barely gotten anything right. So, yeah. But,
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  Speaker 3: you know, also the economy depends a little bit on people.
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  Speaker 3: People try to measure it by consumption or people buying more,
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: buying less. But I think it depends an awful lot
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: on whether you hold assets or not. there are, if
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: you hold assets now, if you have a house already,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: if you have a decent sized retirement account in the
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: equity market, which has done great, you're feeling okay. But
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: if you don't own a house, if you haven't bothered
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: to own equity, if you haven't been saving, if you've
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: run up debt, then it's a terrible economy. And then
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: And then, you know, I'm an agency type. I think
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: people tend to make their own realities. And, you know,
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: there's some pretty simple rules for being happy financially. And
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: one is you spend less than you earn and you
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: save the rest and that you avoid debt at all costs.
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: And then, you know, to the extent you've got savings,
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: you've got cushions. And so there's a whole lot of,
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: personal responsibility involved in whether people are thriving or the
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  Speaker 3: opposite in today's world. And a lot of it has
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  Speaker 3: to do with the choices they've made. Yeah. And I'm
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: sure that some of your viewers are going to hate
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: that you're blaming the victim and all that. But, you know, seriously,
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  Speaker 3: whatever happened to personal responsibility and the idea you're supposed to,
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: You know, plan ahead for a rainy day in the future.
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  Speaker 3: That used to be an essential American characteristic, and it's
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  Speaker 3: less so now. And I think a lot of people
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: pay the price for that.
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  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: I'll probably get a lot of hate mail, so sorry.
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  Speaker 2: Well, you know, what are you going to do? But,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: you know, responsibility is something that you have to take
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: whether you like it or not. uh, oftentimes and really.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: Uh, you.
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: Know, you are where you are partly luck, partly circumstance,
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: but luck matters for some bucks matters. Yeah. Right.
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: I'd rather be lucky and smart as, uh, we always
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: used to say, but, uh, you know, the fact is that, uh,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: You bear some responsibility. So what do you tell an
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: 18-year-old kid who's thinking about going to college to get
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: a useless degree?
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: Didn't you see the numbers recently that the people without
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: college degrees but who have trade skills are just really
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: an incredible high demand now? I mean, you can't get
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: a plumber. You can't get all sorts of technicians. And
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: they're making well into the six figures now. much more than,
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: not all of them, but if you have the skills,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: you can do very well without a college degree. In fact,
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: I'd argue if you've got to go into big debt,
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: you probably should think about the alternative, which is to
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: decide if you really want to do white-collar work in a, actually,
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: we don't go into offices anymore, white-collar work on a
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: computer and rather do something useful with your hands or
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: your brain.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, that's true. I saw that article also. It
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: said for blue-collar, you know, non-skilled, so-called non-skilled employees, the
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: economy is like better than it's been in years and years.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: If you've taken the time to invest in yourself, I mean,
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: you've got to be able to say, I'm in that
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: group that can read and do math and and has
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: some social skills. If you've taken the time to get
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: yourself trained in one of the trades, you're in very
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: good shape. But if you haven't bothered to do those things, yeah,
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: it's tough. Yeah, definitely.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: All right. Well, when we have this conversation in six months,
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: what do you think will have happened here? I don't
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: want to get into the election and all that, but
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Where do you think we'll be?
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: I think we'll be fine. I mean, you know, there's
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: so many agendas trying to make people unhappy. I mean,
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: we have the politics of unhappiness raging in America now
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: and that we're supposed to believe that the so-called, you know,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: the market economy won't deliver and Marxism, communism of all
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: things will deliver. That's one of the most, I don't know,
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: blitheringly dumb notions on the planet if you ever look
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: that history and across cultures that have tried it. But
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: I do think we'll, I think we'll be fine. There's
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: not a, you know, and I hate to say it,
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: I don't like politics, but it does depend on who
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: wins elections. And I don't think, I think the Republicans,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: given that they're not really showing a lot of demonstrated results,
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, Trump came out of the box so early in,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: you know, when he was first in office after inauguration,
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: he had you know, he had a win like every
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: week and they did that for half a year. And
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: now people are saying, well, what are you going to
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: do for me now? What have you done for me lately?
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: But I still think given the radical agenda that the
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: DSA's got, I don't think the Democrats are going to
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: crush the midterms. And so therefore, I think in six months,
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: you know, barring a, what do they call it, a
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: Six Sigma or what's the black... The Black Swan event,
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: barring something like that, will be OK. But we are
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: muddling through with an enormous amount of debt, federal debt.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: And you can make the argument that's unsustainable. Then you
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: can argue that, well, we don't really owe it to
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: anybody else. A lot of it's intergovernmental. That's another one
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: of those complicated conversations. So if I had to— Well,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I'd say we'd be pretty much where we are today
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: in terms of the economy.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: Right. All right. Well, Bill, where do we find you?
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: How do we connect with you on the web?
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: Well, I've got a sub stack, the Bill Walton Show page.
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: We're on YouTube.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: We're on Rumble.
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: We're on all the podcast platforms, all the audio podcast platforms.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: I'm also an ex at WM Bill Walton. And we
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: post shows to that as well. And, you know, I've
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: been inactive. I've written some essays for Substack last year,
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: but now we're cranking the show back up again. And
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: I'm about to do one on data centers and, you know,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: whether that was a good idea or a bad idea.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: And I think properly executed, there is a data center
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: strategy that could make a lot of people happy. But
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: the tech industry is blundered anyway. So I'm going to
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: do a show. about that with some people who know
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: a lot and see if I can offer some new perspectives.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Excellent. Hey, appreciate you coming on. Any questions, comments for Bill, myself,
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: shoot me an email, kl at kerrylutz.com, financialsurvivalnetwork.com. Bill, we
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: will talk to you again real soon. Great.
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: Thanks. Thanks, Cary. Great to be on.
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Financial Survival Network, now more than ever.