Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Death of the Underdog

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Death of the Underdog · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman of the Action Network.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Today I'm joined as always buy my co host, my
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: companion Mike and Padre might BFF professional better sign man
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Hunter Ato.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: So am in shat.
• 0:23
  Speaker 3: What a magical week the release of the schedule. It's
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: one of my favorite weeks of the year for a
• 0:27
  Speaker 3: football fan.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Simon, I know that over the weekend. Yeah, you had
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: eleven PM.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: On Mother's Day.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: On Mother's Day, which is fine, Like you know, your
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: your duty as a son throughout the day to honor
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: your mother. Did you play in the poker tournament? How
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: did it go?
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Did so?
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: It was the final table, That's why it was at
• 0:58
  Speaker 3: such a weird late hour, and there was ten of us.
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: I unfortunately took eighth, but going in, I was a
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: short stack, and I basically I'm a weird person with
• 1:07
  Speaker 3: numbers chat as you know, and seven four suited is
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: blind in, so I was maybe two guys already been
• 1:18
  Speaker 3: knocked out. And then I was at this point the
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: small blind, so I'm already invested and get the seven
• 1:23
  Speaker 3: fourth suited, had to shove guy pocket tens and basically
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: got very lucky.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: On the right.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: I basically flopped trips and this guy rivers the ten.
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: So it's fun, it's gambling, yeah, but.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: It was just a classic b too.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: Where as soon as I saw his hand and I
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: is a dead hand. I'm gonna lose this. There's no
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: way it never you never want to flop it. But yeah,
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: it's it's something I love doing the off season and
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: we'll see World Chairs of Poker. I'm getting the itch,
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: I got ten k to burn. I might end up
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: down in Vegas. I'm playing in that tournament.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: We'll say.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: So when you saw the river, like, what went like.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: I already grabbed my bag, chat, I was already gone, yeah,
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: everybody and grabbed my bag and yeah, so it was
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: already walking off and it's just especially at that time.
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: So I think at this point, it might have been
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: just getting to midnight or just before, and I was
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: like all right, perfect, I'll get home just in time
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: to get some rest and hop on the pod.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I mean you were yeah, you were barely there. You
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: were there for less than an hour.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Then exactly exactly.
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: I spent more time in the sports book, hanging out
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: watching the games, and I did actually playing on the tournament.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I will look speaking of sportsbook, we know that, and
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: we got a big show that we're going to get to,
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: We have the Dallas Cowboys seven point underdogs on the
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The money
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys. This
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: is germane to the show because the show is going
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: of the trends that have been changing. And it speaks
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: to a lot of the work that we've talked about
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: a couple times on the show throughout the year, but
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's going to
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: be on to break it down for us, but before
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: we dig more deeply into that intro, immediately plus seven
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: I bet that. I bet the plus two forty. I
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: know you did too.
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's just an insane opening number. But it's
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: the respect that Philadelphia.
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: Deserves and just the season that Dallas is coming off of, right,
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: So it's all public perception. We talk all the time
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: about week one lines and Dak being disrespectful divisional game
• 4:01
  Speaker 3: like he is in this spot. That that's a nice number,
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: especially where you think about the fact that you know,
• 4:06
  Speaker 3: Kellen Moore did leave, like the Eagles are going to
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: learn a new offense, so this is week one and
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Jalen hurts in a new offense. So pretty interesting that
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: the fact that they hung this number the way they did,
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: and you know, I'm looking at from the standpoint of
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: what you are, it's it's a big number.
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: Rebenting it really early. It is May.
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: But me and chat are taking a position because you
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: expect this to what go to five and a half, four.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: And a half, maybe perhaps by the.
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: Night they kick off, So we want to take a
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: position here and if it goes the other way, even better,
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: like I love if we get to that night chat
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: and we get an eight eight and a half on
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: this number because so many people are throwing their parlays
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: and teasers starting their week off with the Eagles at
• 4:44
  Speaker 3: this number. So yeah, it's just a really fun opening number.
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: Great opening night. I think it's the first time the
• 4:50
  Speaker 3: Egles have opened the season against the Cowboys at home
• 4:53
  Speaker 3: since two thousand, so we're talking about twenty five years here,
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: So pretty pretty excited as an Eagles fan that opening night.
• 4:59
  Speaker 3: I'll definitely be there Thursday night, no work for Simon.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: watching this game.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: it's such a a indicator of recency bias. Like obviously
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: everyone is all hyped on the Eagles, and everyone is
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: that Dak Prescott is going to be back, and that
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback, and
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: it's not like this team won't be competitive, and it's
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: line at some point they were playing almost nobody, and
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: then Dak obviously was out for much of the year.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: So this just feels like way too big of a number.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: I know it's may I know we're not getting overextended
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: on the Cowboys as seven point underdogs on the road
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: in the division, but geez, geez, almighty, that is that
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: is a hefty, hefty price if you want to be
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: betting on the Eagles, or a really nice discount if
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: You can't get it in the action app yet, but
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: I bet both the Cowboys plus seven and the Cowboys
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: on the money line at plus two forty. All right,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: this all leads in perfectly to what we're going to
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: lot on this show the last couple of years when
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: we discuss every single week in this past NFL offseason,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: although across multiple sports, and this has been especially true
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection Act
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: aka PASPA in two thousand and eighteen. It's also been
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: a real business story, and I've mentioned this a few
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: times on the show. The past six to nine months,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: DraftKings Fandle, the two biggest operator, was the biggest percentage
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: of market share amongst all online sportsbooks, have reported in
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Q four and in Q one now that their earnings
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: were less than expected. Their revenue was less than expected
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: because of continued customer friendly outcomes. Last fall was an
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: bad for operators. March Madness it was all shock right,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: the number one seeds all went through to the final four.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: That was bad for business for the operators. We've seen
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: a lot of those customer friendly outcomes. What in the
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: devil is going on? To help us dive into the numbers,
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: the trends unpack how we can sort of think about this.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Our statistical navin, a man who always show his work.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Action Network Director of Researcher Media, Evan Abrams, Welcome back, Evan.
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: Well, what's going on? Fellas? I mean, truthfully, the only
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: thing I got to say before we dive into this,
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL Regular Season
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: and March Madness, were just so slanted towards favorites that
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: this was kind of predictable that this was going to
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: happen at least the conversation because the things that everyone
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: bet on favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: and I have talked about futures. I feel like forever
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: it feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the
• 8:35
  Speaker 4: date is just crazy there when you talk about that
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: taking like the team's under ten to one, et cetera.
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: So conversation should be interesting.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So listen. I've mentioned that I'm working on a book
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: a couple times on the show. One of the things
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: out how to unpack what happened last year and not
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: overreact to it and build something for the coming year
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: that I can then track on a week to week
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: basis and write about in the book. And a lot
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: of my research the past few months, which has been
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: really fun, has been what is the model that I
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: might need to build And a lot of what I've
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: come to the conclusion about is that there is no
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: superstat There is no analysis that can be done that
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: isn't already being done by eight thousand analysts who are
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: thin slicing, advanced metrics. When it comes to the NFL,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: everyone's looking at success rate, everyone's looking at PEPA, everyone's
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: looking at explosiveness. If you really honestly like one of
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: the best models might be the luck rankings, knowing how
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: they create it and so and Simon and I talk
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: about that every week. But pricing has become really interesting.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys seven point dogs. That feels like an exorbitant
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: price to pay you want to bet on the Eagles.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: things I had asked Evan to do is to go
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: through some pricing models based on the research we have
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: available in that lab. So I know, Evan, you're gonna
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: sort of certainly talk about that today, but explain, like,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: as a thesis for this episode, what does the death
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: of the underdog mean exactly?
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: I just think so, I mean PASPA May fourteenth to
• 10:29
  Speaker 4: twenty eighteen. Since that moment, I think we've seen a
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: little bit of a shift. And I tried to do
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: widespread legalization of sports betting, beginning in late twenty eighteen
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: twenty nineteen, kind of changes the game a little bit,
• 10:44
  Speaker 4: and that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: early during this PASSPA era of new legalization across many
• 10:53
  Speaker 4: states in the US, So about two to three years,
• 10:56
  Speaker 4: you see an increase in ATS one percentage for certain
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: underdogs across you know, some of the sports, the majority
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: of one of them. So in the NFL, this also
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads. At least initially
• 11:08
  Speaker 4: we were seeing, you know, seventeen say, a lot more
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: of those bigger numbers, and then what I think we're
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: actually seeing now and I kind of call it the
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: last like two and a half years or so, is
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: again some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing,
• 11:27
  Speaker 4: and I think that has something to do with the
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between
• 11:31
  Speaker 4: the lines, the big things of that nature. But I
• 11:35
  Speaker 4: think it's happening both with single games and it's also
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market.
• 11:40
  Speaker 4: So to me, that is a one, two, three of
• 11:43
  Speaker 4: what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog,
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: which is a very blanket statement when you consider I
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: like looking at the major six sports, so you say
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: at least in the US when it's you know, the
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: four major plus the two college because I feel like
• 11:57
  Speaker 4: that at least from an American point of view, gets
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: the most act. So that's at least where I started
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars
• 12:05
  Speaker 4: kind of walking into this.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Guys, Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: that it's begetting It's that it's getting harder and harder
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: to find a statistical analytical edge when creating power ratings,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: and that more and more we should be leaning into price.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of ways to go about this chat.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: never know. Even if I have an edge, I would
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: never tell you, brother, you know, I love you to death.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: It's just a nature of the year. I know. And
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: that's just the way it is. Bro.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: It's it's it's a different world where like guys, guys
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: have had edges for thirty forty years. You could say
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: they tinker with it and they're always updating it, but
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: they would never tell you, and they and you can,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: you know, give him many drinks as you want, and
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: you could be like, well, this guy's full of But
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: then at the end of the day, this guy's a
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: long term winning better and clearly you know something, he's
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: doing something right. But I mean, just at the basis
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: we're getting to though, it's it does.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: Feel like we have we've had.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: We're in a weird run here, Chad, Like what you're
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: just talking about it, like these favorites. I mean, hell,
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: the best underdog bet of the year was a dude
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like it's
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: a weird year. It's a weird year. So you know,
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: it's back to back years of this of like you know,
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: we love long shots, we love these.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: You didn't see it coming.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: And you know, the one year I feel like we
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: really had a chance at that was that Bengals run
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: right with Joe Burrow.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: Like Evan kept telling us like one hundred and fifty
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: to one.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: I knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: have really shocked the system, but it didn't happen. Right,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: It was like Matt Stafford, the Rams team they end
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: up they end up winning it, and you know, like
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: every year comes on here he talks about these favorites
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: in the NFL, like Chad's making this bet every year,
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: you know, the top twenty or top you know, twenty
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: five to one teams and below, and Chad's been winning
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: on it because it's been pretty chalking the NFL. So
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: evan diamond in numbers here. I'm really interested here all
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: of it because we know because we're better's chat.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: So we've lost the money.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: So we're basically about the get federal medicine, about what
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: we need to adjust and what it's been like the
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: last couple of years here in all the major sports.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: Right, So I haven't layout. You know we've got and
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: you and I discussed this. This was core to some
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: about a couple of months ago. Layout and there's three
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: sort of basic examples, is the best way to describe it.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Of you immediately recognize where you think the market will
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: be off, and those are the ones that you attack.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: These archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances lead you to immediately
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: want to bet those teams that have been causing problems
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: the last couple of years. Give us the three best examples.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Start with number one.
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: of a bad loss. And I think when going through
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: all three of these, these are just normal situations that
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: they blindly bet them? Of course not, but usually over
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: time they end up turning an ROI. And historically yes,
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: off of a bad loss. So this is team with
• 15:33
  Speaker 4: a win percentage under forty percent coming off a loss
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: of twenty plus points. Pretty simple. So since two thousand
• 15:40
  Speaker 4: and three, and that is we're going to use that
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: number that year a lot. That is the bet Labs
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: database and in its entirety, so since two thousand and three,
• 15:47
  Speaker 4: betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: seven percent blanket, but last two seasons twenty one, twenty
• 15:55
  Speaker 4: four and one ats negative ten point three percent ROI.
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: It is the worst two year stretch that we've tracked
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: in that span, So works long term, hasn't worked recently.
• 16:05
  Speaker 4: So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: two more and then we can kind of react. I
• 16:09
  Speaker 4: don't want to I don't you want to react, you
• 16:11
  Speaker 4: want to go?
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: I got I don't think I get home my time. Okay,
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: that's fucking insane, because that's like, that is the a
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: one example that anybody who has done this for any
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: length of time looks at. Give me the bad team
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: coming off a bad loss. It's gonna be a great
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: discount on the.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: Free field goal price. Yeah, get a free three points.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: Yes, like that has been. That has been a money
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: maker to Evan's point seven percent over the past twenty
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: plus seasons, but negative ten percent ROI the past two years. Simon,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: did you realize it was that steep of a drop off?
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: I knew just because early in the year.
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: I remember at one point chat we were like one
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: to twenty five betting dogs.
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember going through it in the show, right.
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: And you went through and I did as well, and
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: like looking at the dogs we were taking. That really
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: season because it wasn't like there was a bunch of laves,
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: even the Panthers. Eventually we swore them off and we
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: had a nice break where it was like, I don't
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: care they're giving us four points here that they shouldn't
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: be given us that.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: You know, the Panthers are just getting that bump.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: And what Evan Year is talking about is really alarming
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: because it just factors into these last two seasons how
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: bad the quarterback play has been. To me, all these
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: really bad teams, and I think that's a lot what
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: I dove into this season offseason is just the really
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: it really is that simple when you dive into it,
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: how big of the key it is where these teams
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: have confidence in their quarterback to go forward off fourth
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: and two, fourth and three, and there's other teams who
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: would just simply pun it on fourth and three four
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: with them too. So what Evan here is really making
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: that state out where it's like, you know, some of
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: these teams usually coming off with bad loss, the team
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: Evan's talk about historical data the last two years. I mean,
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: these teams just lay down and die. Like that's the
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: craziest part. It's like, you're getting these free points and
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: it's not mattering, and the books. It feels like what
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: Evan's saying here is the books are getting caught laying
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: these really bad numbers and the public's taking advantage of it.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: Is two years enough of a sample size?
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: Oh, I don't think so. I mean, I think we've
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: built these systems, models, like different things that trigger points,
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: like look at to start the season. I think we're
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: in wait and see mode. Like if this system, which
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: is seven percent, starts off you know two to eight,
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: you know, I think we might have an understanding of
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: something coming up. But I think this is a very
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: and even some of these bad quarterback player, which I
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: think Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: one other thing that's important here. These are all based
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: off the closing lines. So like in this type of system,
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: you're talking about a bad dog off of bad loss,
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: Like you're assuming that line's going to close higher than
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: it opened because everyone's gonna want the other team. So
• 19:18
  Speaker 4: you know, the these teams losing in that sense where
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: we're talking about the closing line, which is probably a
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: better line, is also pretty shocking to me to be
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: honest and chat.
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: It feels like Evan Year is talking about how it's
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: it's not enough data yet, but it's also he's telling
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: people that you just can't keep doing the same old way.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: There is there could be something happening here that you
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: need to pay attention to, and that he's diving on
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: numbers here, and that's that's what I find so interested
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: about it, where it's like, you know, there's always times
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: too if I have a number on a dog that
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: I like and the luck rankings back it up because
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number,
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: we always talk chat I blindly bet those numbers. Now
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: I am going to take a second and think about
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: the quarterback matchup, the coaching style, little things that I
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: wouldn't ever when I'm in a certain situation where I'd.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: Just blindly bet a big dog.
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: So what Evan saying here, I am going to take
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: changed that much, and it's really coinciding with a lot
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: last couple of seasons.
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: All Right, I having number two, Okay, so this is
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: fading the bounce back bad team versus good team who
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: is off of a big loss. So again, team with
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: a win percentage under forty percent playing a team with
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: a sixty percent win percentage coming off a loss of
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: two touchdowns or more. So, basically you're fading the inevitable
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: bounce back, which most people would normally try to buy into.
• 20:39
  Speaker 4: So since two thousand and three, betting these spots positive
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: ROI have just over six percent, so relatively similar to
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: the one we just talked about, which was about seven percent.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: Now last four seasons in this spot twenty and twenty
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: five against the spread a negative fourteen point seven ROI
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: also the worst stretch in the last twenty two to
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: twenty three years. So again kind of talking about a
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: very similar scenario where I mean that bad team which
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: you would look at probably getting a larger number on
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: the close versus the open, still not covering that number
• 21:13
  Speaker 4: nearly at all last four seasons, even bigger sample, So
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: you're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fascinating because that's another one that has almost
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: been an auto play for years, right, Like you immediately
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: like identify that because we think we're smarter than the
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: average joe. We would bet that because the Joe is
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, and it's not just
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: two years, four years, that's like almost insidious. You know,
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: not really realizing that it's been eating away over a
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: longer period of time.
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: Time.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: That's that's a scary one.
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: I think we're hitting a curve here, Like it's almost
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: like we're trying to figure out if these are going
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: to extend or if there's going to be some sort
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: of like buy back in the market to the meme
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: where we kind of go back to what we were.
• 22:13
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to happen.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: So Simon, Evan's making me want to hibernate.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: I want to disappear now for like three years, and
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: I'll come back and just time the market right and
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: just be rolling in all these dogs, because like Evan
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: saying here, it's going to hit a breaking point right
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: the books they got the same numbers, they have the
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: same data. They will eventually just their models were adjust
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: But I keep telling Chad, we're in a weird time
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: period where these this switch up is happening with the
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: favorites and we're breaking into AI models, which is a
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: whole other conversation, but we're in a really weird period
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: here of like, Okay, favorites are doing really well, the
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: public is, you know, obviously doing really well.
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: The books are trying to go against it.
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: But the books are spending an absurd amount of money
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially
• 22:55
  Speaker 3: in the sports betting world. So it's very it's a
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: very unique time period. It's where a lot of movie
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: doubt my model even more because it's like what Evan's
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: saying here is like I keep thinking I'm getting free
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: points and I'm not. They're kind of suckering us in.
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: And it's been that way the last couple of years.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: And I definitely have not taken position on certain spots,
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: right bounce back spots quote unquote, but there are certain
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: teams that it's like, Okay, if Lamar has a bad
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: loss and he's in a bounce back spot and you're
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: getting the rapportunity of him as a dog, those are like, Okay,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: that's a smash spot.
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: That's a spot you really want to lean into, despite
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: if your numbers are against it.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: You want to do what Evan's talking about here, which
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: is like you throw all the data out and you
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: just historical data tells you good quarterback, good team, after
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: quarterback on a bad team. Evan's telling you they don't.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: They're not bouncing back right now. So that's seventhing. I
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: don't have to check on me and Chad during the
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: regular season. Just keep in the back of our mind
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks.
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: Man, they're just not doing it.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: The whatever is going on in college and the next
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: step to the NFL is not translating like it was
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: in the twenty tens.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Clearly, I feel like there's been a beacon that has
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: been buried in the dirt, and somehow we've been missing
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly,
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of them,
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: including the next one Evan is going to talk about,
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: of these sort of classic underdog play spots all converged
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: an entirely different way, whereas like maybe there's been spots
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: where one or two of them, but not in a
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: consecutive week. So it made us keep thinking. And last
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: year it just felt like every single week, and it's
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: made it look at these now, okay, now this.
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: Is good for you, This is good for us in
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: a lot of ways, shock because it does make you
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: look yourself and your models and all the different things
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: in a different perspective. And like, I'll never forget that
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: year the Egos win that Superol with Doug Peterson and
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: the RPOs that really messed with my model with a
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: But the RPBO was.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: Really working really well, and they brought into the league
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: and the same thing with a couple of teams in
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: that year start going for it more often our fourth down.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting. What we're
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: talking about here is like I don't want to overadjust,
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: Like you're saying, we don't want to overadjust because of
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: these last couple years in these anomalies, But like you're saying,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: we need to really take into account here that these
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: dogs just ain't hitting like they used to, and there's
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: there's a bigger point here that we need to dive
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: into that we can't just say, well, it'll come back around.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: It's like, well maybe it won't. This could be a
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: big change in the NFL, and we need to adjust to it.
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm really glad we're doing this because it's
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: it's something I've already dived.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Into a little bit. But hearing these raw numbers from Evan,
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: it's it's pretty alarming.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: The clarity is is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan's number three.
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely the underdog. I feel like almost is just
• 25:51
  Speaker 4: a tale of caution at the moment. But yeah, here's
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: system three. So and this is almost as much of
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting
• 25:59
  Speaker 4: good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: about the bad team and good team. Forget all that.
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: This is just team with win percentage over sixty percent
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: coming off a loss of twenty plus points, which is
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: basically doesn't happen a ton. But this is, you know,
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: the bounce back spot, the classic. So since two thousand
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: and three, betting these spots has a positive Hawaii of
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: just under sixteen percent, and since twenty twenty it is
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: thirteen and sixteen ats and it was oo and four
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: ats last season, So a literal reversal of fortune. And
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: I think this is literally the worst teams in the
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: NFL basically on the other side of this potentially, and
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: you wanting to back them, and I think you're kind
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: of hitting a bit of a brick wall. But the
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: thirteen and sixteen since twenty twenty, when you have a
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: sixteen percent ROI since two thousand and three, and that's
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: sixteen percent still now, including that thirteen and sixteen just
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: change of times. It's crazy.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: isn't that big. Yeah, twenty nine games just not that big.
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: It's not a big enough number to make you want
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: to change how you think about these things philosophically. But
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: oh and four last year, like Simon, I guarantee we
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: may we went oh and four on those bets, right,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: like we can go back and look, but like I
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: feel like we are seeing all of the losses that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: we had last year just from these three systems that
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Evan is talking about.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: Definitely Carolina loss.
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: But I told you, like, I went back through and
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: I still can't leave how we avoided Tennessee. It feels
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it's man. That's astonishing though.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: I mean, is that the first time, Evan you could
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: find the historical data that there was a year that
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: it just simply went.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: Oh four or oh five.
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: I could check, but there's just no chance you had
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: that type of percentage year to year and you would
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is
• 27:56
  Speaker 4: the first lease in that spot. I think the scary
• 27:58
  Speaker 4: thing is if I took that sixty percent, so teams
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: with a win percentage over sixty percent, and instead of
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: a twenty point loss, I took it down to fourteen,
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: or I took it to nine, which was like more
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: than one possession. I think you'd see similar data in
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: terms of just the evening out of the numbers and
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: it not being so easy to back those teams. So
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: I just think there's more into the handicap than maybe
• 28:19
  Speaker 4: there was a little while ago. I think there's just
• 28:21
  Speaker 4: a lot going on, and also a lot more money
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: in the market. I think legalization has brought in a
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: tons of new types of betters that I think might
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: There's a lot more money in the market. How is
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: pricing impacting all of this? Are bookmakers getting smarter at
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: pricing these things and we're not adjusting?
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I wrote down these three nuggets pillars
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: however you want to call them. But I think it's
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: more of a dynamic pricing, like the odds are getting
• 28:53
  Speaker 4: worse quicker, and I think the adjustment on players is
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: already kind of being baked in, Like we've seen some
• 28:59
  Speaker 4: crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: out and like the other players props aren't moving like
• 29:06
  Speaker 4: they used to, because that's something that used to be
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: a bit of an edge, which is, you know, okay,
• 29:10
  Speaker 4: we're making the assumption on a so let's get ahead
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: of b And that's also even terms of like news,
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: betting is kind of being already baked in as they're
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: making the assumptions that we are. So and I also
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: think a little bit of the a lot of these
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you nose,
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: the different companies that are kind of giving you both
• 29:33
  Speaker 4: options that are getting more popular. But I think that's
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: part of the problem is you know, you're betting into
• 29:37
  Speaker 4: minus one, twenty two's, one twenty fives, one twenty eight's
• 29:40
  Speaker 4: and that just never was the case.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: What about on NFL spreads? When I think about pricing,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the jew soe.
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about is it at six and a half?
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: Is it at seven? Is it at seven and a half?
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: Do we think that they are just getting better at
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: creating lines that are harder to bet into?
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: I think probably. So. I mean, I think, you know,
• 30:11
  Speaker 4: the NFL is an interesting beast just because of the
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: amount of popularity and attention and money that goes into
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: it versus all the other sports. So I don't know
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: seven and a half or eight a little while ago,
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: while now maybe it's you know, seven or six and
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: a half.
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: we bet into this every week, the favorites still get
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: all the money. The favorites still get the late action.
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: Except now the favorites are covering. When we used to
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: feel like the smart guys and the dog used to
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: get the back door or get the cover in those situations,
• 30:44
  Speaker 4: It's just not happening anymore.
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've definitely have learned, especially since the legalization, not
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: to let lines scare me off that to me are
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: so stupid, don't make any sense. I just have to
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: live and die and take it. And the Biggs ones
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: that jumped out to me will always be that at
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: Washington Commander's line against Detroit.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: That line touched ten in that playoff game.
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: And this is with Detroit with all those injuries to
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: their defense, and that stinks. Where I was going to
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: just hammer that number NonStop. I was like, this is
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: a really bad number. But I got scared off because
• 31:18
  Speaker 3: of the year we were just coming off with all
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: And that was one of those games where I luckily
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: just lean into my model and really trust it. And
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: I think even by Thursday show, you could hear my
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: that Sunday night Monday, like I really didn't where It's like,
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: what am I missing here?
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: Why is this ten?
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: How are the Commander's ten points worse than this Detroit
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: team that all those injuries to their defense, And you know,
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: that was one of those situations where normal year dogs
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: are hitting well. For me, that would have been a
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: big six figure game, Like I really would have gone
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: to heavy on that game, knowing my model backs it up.
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: The old timers I talked to are telling me this
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: is a great spot for this Washington team, like it
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: all lined up with it and the data lined up.
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: But just because you're coming off of like that's been
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: so interesting to me that the books, you know, to me,
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: they look like they're laying really really interesting numbers and
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: strong numbers where the public don't even think that way
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: right their minded. If they see seven and a half,
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: and a half. Where me and Chatty the seven a
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: half in our eyes light up. We're getting a hook
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: on a dog we like and a really good number.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: And of course we got slaughterered on those numbers, like
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: we got killed on taking those good numbers that we
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: think are good. But like we're talking about here, the
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: books they're not going to lose forever. Like that's why
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: I keep especially friends I have in my regular life,
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: regular people best sure they've ever had, Some guys over
• 32:40
  Speaker 3: sixty percent, some guys I know seventy percent, especially on
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: their pickpools, like best year they ever had, taking these favorites,
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: and I tell them, oh, get out, retire, just walk away,
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: like this is it just is not gonna happen again.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: They're like, well, how do you know?
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: And it's just what Evan's talking here with historical data
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: that we've never seen it before.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: So yeah, we could get caught here, and it could
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: because of the rule changes.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: But it is interesting when you're talking about we keep
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: having these games and Evan's talking about here where it's like,
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: how do I not feel like we're getting free points
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: here and how do we not take it? Especially when
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: you have a model back in it where it's like
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: this is off by four or five points.
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: I mean. Another way that jumps out to.
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: Me is that the championship of the College football Finals,
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: you know, Notre Dame should have been.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: A big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: and a half?
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: Like that Some of the smartest guys I know bet
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: for a living on college football, had that at three
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: and a half. Four A fluky touchdown happened at the
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: end of the game. I think it landed on ten
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: or something like. It didn't cover the number whatever it is.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: Notre Dame didn't cover. These guys do a lot of
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Joe public like assholes, right, that was an easy bet,
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: taking the superior.
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: Team against the Notre Dame team that shouldn't have even
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: been in that.
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: Game where you got They don't realize how lucky they got. Now,
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: models historically, long term will always be right in those
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: type of spots. So it's across all sports where it's
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs,
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: and these bounces keep going to public weight the end
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: of these games, and it's we're trying to put We're like,
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: we're breaking it all down here today and we're trying
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: to put numbers on it. There's so many of these
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: games where it's just not going our way. And I chat,
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: I talked to you about our regular season. It's like,
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: how many weeks do we have? Two and three? I
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: mean we were two and one and how many weeks
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: heading into that Sunday night show And we end the
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: week two and three, so it's like, are we terrible
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: at this? Should I retire? Do I just simply suck
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: at sports betting? Or do I need to adjust my
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: models and realize some of those games too are just
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: bad bounces.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: So it's hard not to overadjust.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: But at the same time, it's like, man, these last
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: couple of years with these favorites having like you're talking
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: about here, Man, it's it's spooking the shit out of me,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: it really is. Or it's like Week one and two,
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: I got no problem of betting these dogs, Like that's
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: historically is always be good for us. Even last year,
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: the year the Favorites, it was still good for us.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: But after that, man, shit favorites in the public chat?
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: Are we are we switching up? Is this are we
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: going to live our name the Favorites? Is this about
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: to be the new show? Well, that's that's.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: What I mean, Like the the numbers. Every single time
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: I step away from the show, or like and I'm
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: just in my head thinking about how this should go,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: or looking at some of the bet Labs data, or
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: building new models that are just based on when to bet,
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: how lines move, those kinds of things. I start to
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: feel good about where we are going to go next season.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: And then by the way, I'm seeing all of this
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: time right now as we're talking about it. So the
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: fact that there has been a slow decline that last
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: year popped, but we had not really recognized for some
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: of our very safe, consistent plays that have gone against
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: the public for years. That's alarming and that scares me
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: about everything that I've been thinking about building for the
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: past three months. So yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: of freaking out right now, and I might have to
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: go back to square one at this point. That's how
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I feel about it.
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: The only thing I'll say is the only thing I'll
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: say is this, I think the most glaring stat So
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest,
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: that's the show, like, that's kind of how this was built.
• 36:27
  Speaker 4: But I think this is the one that kind of
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites
• 36:33
  Speaker 4: were positive from an ROI perspective in twenty twenty three
• 36:37
  Speaker 4: and twenty twenty four, and that was actually the first
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: time we had ever seen that happen. In back to
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: back years. I went back to about two thousand in
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: terms of I went I looked even further in terms
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: of data. So the fact that and moneyline favorites take
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: so much to become positive because of you know, one
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: loss takes you back a lot in terms of the
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: big So to me, back to back years of positivity
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: on the moneyline, ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL,
• 37:03
  Speaker 4: that is a bit of a turn for me because
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: I usually see, Okay, a favorite covers here, a favorite
• 37:08
  Speaker 4: covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: a little alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: on the money line, and it was one of the
• 37:15
  Speaker 4: worst years you could ever think of for that feeling great?
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: That got the Cowboys at plus seven on the money
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: line a plus two four.
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: Well, it hurts, is gonna you know, Tush push first drive.
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: We're gonna all feel great. It's gonna be fair, that's
• 37:26
  Speaker 4: all right.
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: The back door, which we love game planning for, feels
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us?
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So underdogs trailing by ten plus points at any
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: point of the game covered at a twenty one percent
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: rate last season, The year prior it was twenty percent,
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: so pretty consistent. That was the first time in over
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: a decade we saw back to back years though, of
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: that low of a percentage. So in terms of where
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: we're used to, a team falls beyond, like we've seen
• 38:01
  Speaker 4: in the NBA what feels like a million times this
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: postseason and ends up coming back and either wins the
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: game or covers the game or some crazy statistic just
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think
• 38:12
  Speaker 4: we're used to.
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: It's probably the difference of about five percent four percent,
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: depending on the average per season overall year to year,
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: But when you talk about the last two years and
• 38:25
  Speaker 4: the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: story because I think that's what we're used to. We're
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: as the week goes by, and then a majority of
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: the time or a decent percentage of the time them
• 38:40
  Speaker 4: coming through the back door and coming into the winning
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: percentage of underdogs at the end of the season, And
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: at twenty percent, you're just not seeing that. So I
• 38:48
  Speaker 4: think it's a part of the story.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: hope or false hope, which is the books don't lose,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: they always make money, right, And so even like what
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: we're talking about with DraftKings and FanDuel and their earnings
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: changing projections and outlooks, like, is this a false hope
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: turn back around or is everybody going to have to recalibrate?
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: Oh Man, Like Kevin said, this is a defining season
• 39:32
  Speaker 3: in many ways, but I feel like it's.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: Defining decade in many ways. Right, this is going to
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: be a slow burn for me.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: And you know, like I joke, we all a time, Chad,
• 39:42
  Speaker 3: this isn't a job that I know guys.
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: Most guys that do this job eventually get burned out.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: They find something else and they go down a different
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: path because sports betting is so hard and you have
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: to consistently be tinkering and update your model and you
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways like
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: you're talking on especially here, and you know, it's it's
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: not as simple as we simply just bet the dog,
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: especially in those spots but our hardest job chat is
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: we have to pick five games every week, So one
• 40:07
  Speaker 3: or two of those games we're gonna bet it. Because
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: we love the number. The models back that we love
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: the spot. We have to start really.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Challenging ourselves that is this actually a good spot? Is
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: this what we want to be doing?
• 40:18
  Speaker 3: Where Evan's giving us these numbers here, that's telling you
• 40:20
  Speaker 3: that you know, it's it's kind of a favorites world
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: and because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: want to bet.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: Infit the offenses?
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: And that that kind of mean to me is what's
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: jumping out here where It's like Evan's telling you, if
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: you get a ten point lead, it's really tough for
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: these teams to catch up because the offense to these
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: other teams are just so dynamic now, where like, even
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: if we do get that back door score, who's to
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: say that team's not going to get down there on
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: our short field and score their own field goal or
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: touchdown and once again we're not covering.
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a show.
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: of these numbers from Evan because it's it's a good
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: reminder too to play during the season to ourselves because
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: it's it's changed.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: Jad.
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: We always joke we used to force our halves to
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: put one favorite in. We now might have to flip
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs and try
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: to go three favorites or something. But like you said,
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: I don't want to overadjust yet. But I did make
• 41:10
  Speaker 3: big adjustments on into the playoffs, and people saw it
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: I had to really be pushed to want to take
• 41:18
  Speaker 3: a dog. I mean, hell, I took both chalk home
• 41:21
  Speaker 3: favorites in the AFC Championship game, and I heard a
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: lot of shit that week. It's like, you think it's
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: just gonna be that easy, egos and the Chiefs, and
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: that's the way it's been for the public people. It's
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: really been that easy. So yeah, hearing these numbers get
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: broken down, you know, my fear is Chad that I
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: overadjust and like Evan just said, it coming back around
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: this season me and you miss that golden whale, Like
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: that's what I don't.
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: Want to miss here where I don't think we will.
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: midway through the season, in week twelve and eleven, you know,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: we'll say, Okay, let's go back to what we were
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: doing that was so good for us the previous years.
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: Where last year, I remember in week twelve and eleven,
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: I mean you were look at each other being.
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: Like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites? What are
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: we supposed to do here?
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: And all of a sudden, I think, Evan, we had
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: a run there of five six straight weeks of favorites
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: covering in the middle of the season, which just not happened.
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: Because that's why I keep trying to talk about the
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: sports books. They the NFL is their baby, this is
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: their most important sport. The money that comes in on
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: this sport isn't It's out of this world compared to
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: other sports, right, this is the driver of the marketell
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: I go to the sports book all the time in
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: my off season. The difference between the NFL season and
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: others and the other seasons is palpable.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: So, yeah, Chad, this is I don't want to overadjust.
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: But I'm telling you, the more I talk to bookmakers,
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: it feels like they're feeling confident, they're not over worried
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: about it. Maybe we should do the same but it's
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: not in my nature not to be worried and not
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: to freak out about it.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: My feeling on anxiety generally is it is the most
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: powerful tool to improve, honestly, because if you use it properly,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: then you're going to do the work you need to
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: better position to succeed. If you use it negatively and
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: it keep you up at night, it just paralyzes you
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: and shuts you down and makes you not be able
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: to function. It's terrible. But I actually love the power
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: work and things that you can control, because it will
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: a bunch of different areas where we have historically focused.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Can you give us some examples where other sort of
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: conventional gambling wisdom is now losing better's money.
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: So I think a classic to anytime longtime NFL gambler
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind
• 44:08
  Speaker 4: of already talked about a little bit. But this is
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: just is a little more simple. So I looked at
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: all teams that met this betting criteria. Teams with a
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: losing record, who are underdogs who are just coming off
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: a loss in general, classic ugly dog situation. If you
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: bet every team in that situation last two seasons, you'd
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: have a negative ROI of almost nine percent two seasons.
• 44:29
  Speaker 4: Nine percent, pretty damn bad. That is the worst two
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: year stretch in our bet Labs database again since two
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: thousand and three numbers. So again pretty simple here, that
• 44:39
  Speaker 4: is teams with a losing record, underdogs off a loss,
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: spread doesn't matter. Those are just the three criterias. You'd
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: be down almost nine percent. And if you go even
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: deeper there so really ugly dogs six plus point dogs,
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: so instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: six points or more. It honestly gets even worse. And
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: the thing is you want to look at least I did.
• 45:02
  Speaker 4: I looked at moneyline results, So between twenty thirteen and
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, which is basically pre paspa minus six point
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: one percent ROI twenty two point nine percent straight up.
• 45:16
  Speaker 4: So that is twenty thirteen to twenty eighteen, I'll say
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: that again minus six point one percent ROI twenty three
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: percent straight up. Since twenty nineteen, it is minus eighteen
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: percent ROI and eighteen percent straight up. So that is
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: about three times worse on the ROI and about five
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: percent less on the straight up win percentage. And we're
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: just talking about blanketed here, big underdogs off a loss,
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: bad team, And that is pretty much what a lot
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: of us tend to at least look at early week
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: to kind of filter flag, you know, trigger some signals,
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: and they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: So I felt like that was a good signal of
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: what the heck is happening here.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually wonder the passpo line of demarcation and legalization.
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: how much more money is coming into the market, how
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: and they probably think less and less about what professional
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: of a five hundred dollars bet, even if it's someone
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: else's betting ten thousand dollars on the other side, if
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: the five hundred is smart money, I think that's having
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon,
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: then maybe we've been accounting for a little bit.
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: I would say the biggest change to for me would be,
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: you know, I was living in Vegas, there were just
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: so few guys who did this for a living, especially
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: bet on the NFL for a living, because it's such
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: a hard sport to do.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: Now, Chad, it's a whole different world.
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: Like there's guys who I never would have taken serious,
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: being the douchebag I was back.
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: Then, being like this not a real better Now, No,
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: this dude's legit. Like he's put in the work. You know.
• 47:17
  Speaker 3: I see him there all the time in the sports book.
• 47:20
  Speaker 3: The more I talk to them, the more I respect them.
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: And this time goes along. You're like, Okay, it's a
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: new wave of this younger generation, people my age, I
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: should say, that have come to this market with their
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: own computer models where it just was never liked that, right,
• 47:32
  Speaker 3: you never really saw it like that in Vegas, And
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: I like it. But like you're saying, it's changed the
• 47:39
  Speaker 3: market in a lot of ways and a lot of
• 47:42
  Speaker 3: things we joked about, especially when they legalize it, of
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: you know, there's gonna be a lot of games where
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: we get a ton of free points. We've been getting
• 47:48
  Speaker 3: that chet, but it's not been coming through. And I
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: especially would have loved having to do just primetime games
• 47:54
  Speaker 3: because you know, some of my best runs have been
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: those underdaw under the unders on these primetime games. Like
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: I've I've just had a really good run, especially since
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: the legalization of sports betting, just simply betting unders in
• 48:08
  Speaker 3: these primetime games.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: And you know we had that one.
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: Year, was that two years ago, Evan, where we were
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: like seventy percent betting the under in prime time years.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: It was crazy.
• 48:16
  Speaker 3: But I remember last year came back around, right, we
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: had a bunch of overs in prime time games. So
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: like we can just keep talking about it. It's like I
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: once again, I don't overad just but we're seeing the
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: public even they're betting these lines up. These offenses have
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: been coming for the favorites, and these offenses on these
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: for these favorites have been coming through for them, where
• 48:36
  Speaker 3: the overs last year came through for them, and same
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: with the favorites.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if you have numbers on that,
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: do you, Evan?
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I just pulled so last season exactly five hundred.
• 48:46
  Speaker 4: So basically, totals in night games thirty three and thirty
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: three in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three they
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: were seventy nine and forty eight to the under almost
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: sixty three percent. So basically, I think you nailed it.
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: I think it was Favorites creating those totals that should
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: have gone under to over the underdog's not covering, and
• 49:08
  Speaker 4: it happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically
• 49:11
  Speaker 4: pushed it about twelve percent last year.
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: I mean, you just heard that Chats. That's crazy the
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: difference from year to year. And that's why I keep
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly.
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: Like we with the rule change to the kickoff, we
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: are living in a weird time period where all these
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: lines were all screwed up, and we're gonna look back
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: on it and just be like it was that simple teams,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields more often than
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: not because of the new kickoff rules. And you know,
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: those unders killed me. But I remember thinking it might
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: have been week five or six, adjust I didn't come
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: on the show every week saying bet these product time
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: owners because of that I was like, something's simply different
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: here where these games we're not getting extra points or
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: we're not getting the free points were used to. These
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: games are going to go over because something has changed.
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: And unfortunately it took me all season to figure out
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: that kickoff. Man, it changed so much last season, and
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: just there, Evan, given those numbers, really jumps out to
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: me how much it did change it.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again, and I
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now is
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: that it's going to change it to the detriment of
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: what we saw last year. I think that teams will
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: off to putting the team in a position of running
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: it back because the penalty is going to be so
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: much greater. It's going to be even harder to stop
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: teams because the field's going to be even shorter. Number one.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Number two, the one thing that worries me, assignment about
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: year sample and a lot of the stuff that Evan
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: just pointed out is multi year changes that where we've
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down down,
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: that has nothing to do with kickoffs, and that's the
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: harder thing to unpack.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: It does. But last year was that what I've been
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: talking about on steroids.
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: Like those other years, the margins were much smaller, and
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: we've already tald about there's other years the stuff that
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: makes sense.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: For those years where the practice rate has dropped.
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: And you can really dive into this whole thing if
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: people want to, Like I know proso have done it,
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling less has
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: affected a lot of these teams, especially the difference between
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: a well coached team and teams that put on the
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: pads during practice during certain weeks and teams that simply
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: people want to look into that stuff. But what you're
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: talking about, going back chat, I feel like is also something.
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: I mean, you've been harping on about these coaches and
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: these fourth downs, like we've really if you go back
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: and you look through even these last couple of years,
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: especially these last four or five years since COVID, the
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: upticking coaches going forward on fourth down on their own
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: side of the field is greatly up than it was
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: in the twenty ten, and that is something that you
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: could attribute more to these favorites. But I just wanted
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: to bring up the prime time underthink is people have
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: asked me about it. Why we really didn't talk about
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: it last season. I was like, what is there to
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: talk about it? It's a bad bet, Like there was
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season, like
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: we said, I'm hoping the books ad just because of
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: the kickoff Chad, maybe every week we'll get an.
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Extra four or five points.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: But you know, last year what hung true to me
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: was Evan always come on here and talk about the
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: fifty point line right when the total is above fifty points.
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: Historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: Evan has the numbers of it. Felt the same thing
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: week like it was in the before, where you know,
• 52:41
  Speaker 3: certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it,
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: where it's like, no, these two offenses can hit this
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: number where usually we talk, we joke all the time,
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: like you see a fifty one, you blindly take that under. Historically,
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: long term that's a winner. So once again is because
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: of the kickoff chats because of the fourth down ruling.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Is it all of it all mixed in one pot together.
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: It's just something that jumped out to me where it's
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: like these simple bets I don't need to put a
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: ton of work into now that's gonna be in another
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: couple hours a week added into my regime of diving too,
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: these different games and these numbers, just because I can't
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: blindly bet the under on fifty one that I used to,
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: Is that true, Evan?
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, So at fifty or higher, twenty twenty one to
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: twenty twenty three, fifty nine percent, sixty four forty four.
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: Last year thirteen and twelve five hundred didn't matter all
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: in the air. So yeah, I mean last season that
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: number didn't turn to anything. You know, three years prior,
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: you'd be up almost thirteen percent ROI.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad,
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: A lot of patterns.
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I actually wonder in the next year, assignment, will you
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: spend more time during this offseason focusing on fourth down
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: and how to find the signals and the noise on
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: fourth down conversion or what happened with the kickoff?
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: I already I'm done with a kickoff.
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: I put a ton of time in that receis the
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: season ended jat like I usually go away, I didn't
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: do any of that. I literally just dove right back
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: into it cause I was losing my shit, especially in
• 54:10
  Speaker 3: the middle of the season about it, where it's like,
• 54:12
  Speaker 3: why can't I just this?
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: What am I missing on this rule? And what's the
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: biggest difference here?
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: I told you the biggest difference to me these last
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: couple of years has been the influx of these mobile
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: call these fourth down place because that is such a
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: huge difference, right.
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: You have so many different options.
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: You can either do a readoption to the running back
• 54:33
  Speaker 3: where the quarterback can keep it and running, or they
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: can just take it out of the running backs belly
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: these last five, six, seven years, that really changed these
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: fourth down offenses where it's.
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: Such a big deal. So I'm probably with you.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: I'll probably spend the next you know, month of May
• 54:50
  Speaker 3: a little bit of June dive even more to these
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: fourth down offenses. And you know, I've watched every single
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: snap Daniels took on fourth downs, and I'm really excited
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Kingsbury does in year two of him because every play
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: they called for him on fourth down was the perfect
• 55:05
  Speaker 3: call of the perfect exact time. That's why me and
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: you kept yelling for regression. It took a long ass time,
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: I think, into the NFC Championship game for that aggression
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: to hit on fourth down because every play they had called,
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: Daniels always made their right read. Either gave it to
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: the running back, hit the first read and Terry McLaurin,
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: or he pulled it in and ranted himself. Never did
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: he make the wrong read. What was it eighty percent
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: they were on fourth down, So it was just I mean,
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: it's incredible going back and watching that because you know,
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: I like to pick guys apart, because I know what
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: this is what the NFL coaches are gonna do. Like
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: every team the NFC is, all they're doing is watching
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: Daniels tape. Like they don't care about Dak or Russell
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hurts. Everyone's just so
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: locked in on Daniels because he was such a game
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: fajer last year and that that to meet chat would
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: these fourth downs on short fields? What is the biggest
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: change these coaches have made with a new kickoff rule?
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: Simon Evan, This may be the most important episode we
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: ever do, and amazingly We'll return with our next episode
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: of The Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page.
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