Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Latest Midterms RED ALERT Hits the GOP

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The Latest Midterms RED ALERT Hits the GOP · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  So much to talk to you about.
• 0:03
  If you're just new to prediction markets,
• 0:04
  you wanna go to predictable101.com,
• 0:07
  great place for you to get started.
• 0:08
  Short videos,
• 0:09
  guides
• 0:09
  on how to use prediction markets,
• 0:11
  why to use prediction markets.
• 0:12
  It's all up there.
• 0:13
  Check it out.
• 0:14
  We're gonna go into Nate Silver's latest midterm warning,
• 0:18
  kind of a big story over the past 24 hours.
• 0:20
  We have a candidate countdown coming up out of New Jersey,
• 0:24
  and we will talk about one of uh Biden's favorite January 6th
• 0:29
  prosecutors.
• 0:30
  In a little bit of trouble and it's tied
• 0:32
  to prediction markets.
• 0:34
  We'll get into that
• 0:35
  as well.
• 0:35
  Join us on predictableShow.com and on YouTube,
• 0:38
  wherever you get your podcasts as well.
• 0:40
  It's predictable with Stu,
• 0:41
  and we start
• 0:42
  right now.
• 0:57
  Alright,
• 0:58
  here we go.
• 0:58
  It's predictable with stew time.
• 1:00
  We're hopefully going to make your world a little more profitable,
• 1:03
  a little more predictable.
• 1:05
  As you know,
• 1:05
  politicians have been making money off of you for a very long time.
• 1:08
  It's time for you
• 1:09
  to make some money off of them,
• 1:10
  and that's what we're gonna try to do for the next 34 days.
• 1:13
  Find positions that make you some money off
• 1:16
  of these elections because they do exist.
• 1:18
  We've done very well so far through the primaries,
• 1:20
  and we're hoping.
• 1:21
  And we can hold that,
• 1:22
  uh,
• 1:22
  trend all the way through
• 1:24
  the elections.
• 1:25
  I'm optimistic about it,
• 1:27
  you know,
• 1:27
  it doesn't mean that I like every election result that's around the corner.
• 1:30
  I will say that,
• 1:31
  uh,
• 1:31
  there could be some negative ones.
• 1:33
  If they're bad,
• 1:34
  we're gonna try to profit off them.
• 1:35
  If there's things that we do like,
• 1:37
  we're also
• 1:39
  going to just try to profit off of them.
• 1:40
  So
• 1:41
  we're gonna separate ourselves from the emotion.
• 1:44
  We know that election times are very difficult.
• 1:47
  They are very stressful.
• 1:49
  Because
• 1:49
  you care about the country.
• 1:51
  I mean,
• 1:51
  you care about the country,
• 1:53
  you care about the people around you,
• 1:54
  you want the best for them,
• 1:56
  and
• 1:57
  that doesn't always come in the form of an election.
• 2:00
  Even when your guy wins,
• 2:01
  a lot of times they suck.
• 2:02
  So what we're gonna do here is,
• 2:04
  is watch all that,
• 2:05
  try to analyze it and give you the best perspective as to what is going to happen
• 2:09
  in just 34 days,
• 2:10
  and at the same time,
• 2:11
  look for profit,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  profit opportunities
• 2:14
  because,
• 2:14
  uh,
• 2:14
  hey,
• 2:15
  if you're gonna have some pain in an election,
• 2:16
  why not get paid for it.
• 2:18
  That's the way I look at it.
• 2:18
  By the way,
• 2:19
  uh,
• 2:19
  I keep saying 34 days away.
• 2:20
  Actually,
• 2:21
  early voting has already started in several states,
• 2:23
  5 states to be exact.
• 2:24
  We have more coming up around the corner.
• 2:26
  Just wanna make sure that you know PredictableShow.com.
• 2:29
  We have the predictable midterm consensus.
• 2:30
  This is a prediction model,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  or excuse me,
• 2:32
  a,
• 2:33
  uh,
• 2:33
  an election model that I built,
• 2:35
  uh,
• 2:35
  which looks at everything,
• 2:37
  polling averages,
• 2:38
  fundraising,
• 2:39
  uh,
• 2:39
  election models,
• 2:40
  uh,
• 2:41
  expert opinion,
• 2:42
  everything except for
• 2:44
  my opinion
• 2:45
  and prediction markets.
• 2:46
  Why not prediction markets?
• 2:48
  Well,
• 2:48
  we do think that they are very,
• 2:50
  very,
• 2:50
  uh,
• 2:50
  good at predicting
• 2:52
  what comes in these elections,
• 2:53
  but
• 2:54
  We're looking for those gaps.
• 2:55
  We're looking for those opportunities,
• 2:56
  so we keep those out and we show you the difference between what our,
• 3:00
  you know,
• 3:00
  what the consensus model is saying
• 3:02
  and what election,
• 3:03
  uh,
• 3:04
  markets are saying.
• 3:05
  And that might be a little bit of a starting point for you
• 3:08
  to get some money into these markets if you want access to all 35 states,
• 3:12
  we have them.
• 3:13
  If you are a premium subscriber to PredictableShow.com
• 3:16
  and the House and the Senate are free,
• 3:17
  you can check that out as well
• 3:19
  on the site,
• 3:20
  OK,
• 3:21
  um.
• 3:23
  Let me start this with an email
• 3:24
  I received.
• 3:24
  By the way,
• 3:25
  questions
• 3:26
  at predictableShow.com.
• 3:27
  Questions at predictableShow.com.
• 3:30
  Get yours in.
• 3:32
  This comes
• 3:32
  uh from Mike.
• 3:35
  Mike says,
• 3:36
  hey,
• 3:36
  Stu,
• 3:36
  first off,
• 3:37
  thank you.
• 3:38
  Your primary coverage made me more money this spring
• 3:40
  than my 401k has in three years,
• 3:44
  which says something about either your analysis or my retirement planning.
• 3:48
  Money well spent on the premium sub.
• 3:50
  I love,
• 3:50
  uh,
• 3:50
  thanks so much for joining us on the adventure of PredictableShow.com.
• 3:54
  It's growing quickly,
• 3:55
  and we do really appreciate it if you happen to be a free sub or a,
• 3:59
  uh,
• 3:59
  a premium sub.
• 4:00
  We love you.
• 4:01
  We love you all.
• 4:02
  Um,
• 4:02
  I just read Nate Silver's new piece
• 4:05
  on midterm waves,
• 4:06
  and I'd like a refund on my optimism.
• 4:09
  His whole argument is that waves against the party
• 4:11
  in the White House are basically the default setting,
• 4:15
  not some freak event.
• 4:16
  So,
• 4:17
  is the house even worth trading anymore,
• 4:19
  or is it priced in?
• 4:20
  And is there any value left on the GOP side
• 4:24
  of the Senate,
• 4:24
  or am I just buying with my heart?
• 4:27
  I'm asking for a friend.
• 4:28
  The friend is me
• 4:30
  and my wife,
• 4:30
  who controls the budget.
• 4:32
  Keep up the great work,
• 4:33
  Mike,
• 4:34
  a premium subscriber.
• 4:35
  First of all,
• 4:35
  Mike,
• 4:35
  thank you so much for joining us.
• 4:37
  Uh,
• 4:37
  we do appreciate you being there and being part of PredictableShow.com.
• 4:41
  You can be there too.
• 4:42
  All my picks.
• 4:43
  There's gonna be an update on Stu's picks here,
• 4:45
  uh,
• 4:45
  in a couple of days.
• 4:46
  We have over 350 of them that you can kinda get jump on board,
• 4:50
  and I know a lot of you have,
• 4:51
  so thank you for that.
• 4:52
  Um.
• 4:53
  Do we have the predictable midterm consensus still up
• 4:55
  by any chance?
• 4:56
  His last question was,
• 4:57
  uh,
• 4:58
  what was it,
• 4:59
  was,
• 4:59
  uh,
• 4:59
  is the house even worth trading anymore,
• 5:01
  or is it priced in?
• 5:01
  Go down to the House and the Senate if you would,
• 5:03
  um,
• 5:04
  uh,
• 5:04
  and am I buying with my heart?
• 5:05
  Here we go.
• 5:06
  Uh,
• 5:07
  86.7% chance for the Democrats to win the House.
• 5:10
  It,
• 5:10
  you know,
• 5:10
  it's funny because
• 5:11
  it's hard to believe it would go that much higher,
• 5:14
  and there has to be some level of uncertainty here.
• 5:16
  Now,
• 5:16
  I,
• 5:17
  I really do believe,
• 5:18
  and I've told you this,
• 5:18
  I've been buying this for a very long time
• 5:21
  for the Democrats to win the House.
• 5:23
  Just between history and,
• 5:25
  you know,
• 5:25
  the,
• 5:26
  the,
• 5:26
  the way things are going and being perceived in the polls,
• 5:29
  I'm pretty confident they're gonna win there.
• 5:31
  86.7%.
• 5:31
  I mean,
• 5:32
  how high can it go though,
• 5:33
  right?
• 5:33
  Like it's not gonna go to 98%,
• 5:34
  I don't think,
• 5:35
  uh,
• 5:35
  but 86.7%.
• 5:37
  This again,
• 5:37
  tons and tons of data going into this,
• 5:39
  you know,
• 5:40
  dozens of data sources
• 5:42
  go into to make this number.
• 5:43
  So 86.7%.
• 5:44
  The Senate has risen.
• 5:46
  If you scroll down a little bit here,
• 5:47
  Adam,
• 5:47
  you'll see the graph.
• 5:49
  Um,
• 5:49
  61.5% chance for Democrats to win the Senate.
• 5:51
  Go,
• 5:51
  go up to the graph for a minute.
• 5:53
  Uh,
• 5:53
  there it is.
• 5:53
  Yeah,
• 5:54
  you see how close it was for a very long time from when we launched
• 5:57
  the model in August,
• 5:59
  all the way through to,
• 6:00
  you know,
• 6:01
  really Labor Day,
• 6:02
  and then the divide,
• 6:03
  the divergence,
• 6:05
  uh,
• 6:06
  occurs,
• 6:06
  and you see
• 6:07
  now Democrats with a
• 6:10
  leaning lead.
• 6:11
  It's not a massive lead in the Senate,
• 6:12
  uh,
• 6:12
  could go either way still,
• 6:13
  but the House does not feel like one that can go either way,
• 6:16
  at least that there's not much of a chance of it.
• 6:18
  Uh,
• 6:19
  so anyway,
• 6:19
  you can explore every state if you're a premium subscriber.
• 6:21
  This is the piece that,
• 6:22
  uh,
• 6:22
  that,
• 6:22
  uh,
• 6:23
  Mike was asking about silver bulletin.
• 6:25
  Midterm waves are the rule,
• 6:27
  not the exception.
• 6:27
  And one of the things we've talked about as we've gone through
• 6:30
  all this data over the past,
• 6:32
  uh,
• 6:32
  couple of months
• 6:33
  is,
• 6:34
  are we talking about
• 6:35
  a Democratic win?
• 6:37
  Are we talking about a Democratic wave?
• 6:40
  Are we talking about a Democratic tsunami?
• 6:42
  Are we talking about a Republican catastrophe?
• 6:44
  What,
• 6:44
  what level are we talking about here?
• 6:46
  As I said a few times,
• 6:48
  I feel pretty well protected
• 6:50
  against everything except the absolute catastrophe,
• 6:53
  and at some point.
• 6:54
  You have to leave yourself some level of risk with or you just,
• 6:57
  you know,
• 6:58
  you wind up with
• 6:59
  making 1%
• 7:00
  on your money,
• 7:01
  you know,
• 7:02
  you're gonna wanna jump into some of these markets that aren't sure things
• 7:05
  and you're gonna try to make some of those profits.
• 7:07
  The question is
• 7:08
  if there's a real wave,
• 7:10
  a real catastrophe for Republicans,
• 7:12
  a real celebratory
• 7:14
  event
• 7:15
  in,
• 7:15
  um,
• 7:16
  in November for Democrats.
• 7:18
  Some of these positions that felt
• 7:21
  totally safe a couple of months ago
• 7:24
  will start to feel risky,
• 7:25
  and so we're guarding against that.
• 7:26
  We've,
• 7:27
  we've given you
• 7:28
  concrete steps to take
• 7:30
  to try to uh protect yourself for that scenario because I think that scenario is
• 7:34
  possible.
• 7:35
  But
• 7:35
  when you say the word wave,
• 7:37
  what does that mean?
• 7:38
  Wave has a really broad meaning,
• 7:41
  especially if you're kind of looking at it the way that Nate Silver seems to be here.
• 7:45
  Uh,
• 7:45
  which
• 7:46
  is
• 7:46
  a significant change,
• 7:48
  a significant pushback against the power,
• 7:50
  uh,
• 7:50
  that is in the White House,
• 7:52
  but also not necessarily,
• 7:54
  it doesn't have to rise to Tea Party levels of 2010,
• 7:57
  the biggest wave
• 7:58
  election we've had in a century.
• 8:00
  Um,
• 8:01
  you could have a pretty significant defeat.
• 8:03
  And a significant defeat that is a wave,
• 8:05
  I think
• 8:06
  carries with it some states and races that you wouldn't expect.
• 8:10
  Republicans may be losing states in red,
• 8:12
  uh,
• 8:13
  losing seats in red states that they never thought
• 8:15
  they would be very vulnerable here going in.
• 8:18
  Another part of this is we have increased partisanship,
• 8:22
  increased polarization,
• 8:24
  and
• 8:25
  The belief has been for a while
• 8:28
  that
• 8:29
  the hatred basically for that Democrats have of Republicans and
• 8:32
  Republicans have of Democrats locks you into a certain range
• 8:36
  of possibilities.
• 8:37
  It's not everything.
• 8:39
  You're not gonna go back to the days where people
• 8:41
  were winning 48 and Ronald Reagan's won 49 states.
• 8:43
  That's not happening anymore.
• 8:44
  Right,
• 8:45
  because no matter what,
• 8:46
  there's gonna be 20 states
• 8:47
  or 15 states that Democrats are gonna win every single time.
• 8:50
  The Republicans have the same,
• 8:51
  even more,
• 8:52
  uh,
• 8:52
  states,
• 8:53
  although some of them are smaller.
• 8:54
  This is what the Nate Silver model has.
• 8:56
  Now
• 8:57
  Silver's models,
• 8:58
  you know,
• 8:58
  not based on the exact same things that mine is,
• 9:01
  uh,
• 9:01
  but you can see the same pattern here,
• 9:03
  uh,
• 9:03
  how the Senate forecast has changed over time.
• 9:06
  He had the Democrats leading
• 9:08
  as you go through August,
• 9:09
  uh,
• 9:10
  basically tied at the beginning of September and ever since
• 9:13
  has been rising and rising
• 9:15
  and rising and rising and rising.
• 9:17
  Now 72.6% chance.
• 9:19
  So
• 9:20
  Silver is more pessimistic for Republican chances in the Senate
• 9:24
  than,
• 9:24
  uh,
• 9:24
  the PMC
• 9:26
  is.
• 9:27
  Uh,
• 9:27
  he is more pessimistic for Republicans' chances in the Senate than I am personally.
• 9:32
  Uh,
• 9:32
  he is,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:33
  uh,
• 9:34
  you know,
• 9:35
  even more pessimistic than
• 9:37
  the prediction markets are.
• 9:39
  Uh,
• 9:39
  on,
• 9:40
  on the Republicans' chances,
• 9:41
  and you can see
• 9:43
  one of the reasons why,
• 9:44
  and a huge part of,
• 9:46
  uh,
• 9:46
  Nate's model is the,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:48
  uh,
• 9:49
  generic vote.
• 9:49
  In fact,
• 9:50
  it's not just his model,
• 9:51
  almost everybody's model has generic vote as a big
• 9:54
  input
• 9:54
  into,
• 9:55
  uh,
• 9:55
  into a particular election model.
• 9:57
  This is what his the rise looks like.
• 9:59
  You see,
• 10:00
  if you go back to February and April,
• 10:02
  Republicans were actually leading.
• 10:04
  Uh,
• 10:04
  by a small amount
• 10:05
  that has changed dramatically.
• 10:07
  About April,
• 10:08
  it crossed the line into Democratic territory,
• 10:10
  hung around 2 or 3 points for a while until we got to,
• 10:14
  uh,
• 10:14
  the beginning of 2026,
• 10:15
  has slowly risen from the beginning of 2026
• 10:18
  until about
• 10:19
  Labor Day.
• 10:20
  And since Labor Day has skyrocketed upward,
• 10:24
  uh,
• 10:24
  you know,
• 10:24
  you've gone from
• 10:25
  about 6 points to 8.9%.
• 10:27
  So
• 10:28
  it doesn't sound like a lot,
• 10:29
  but it's like 50% rise,
• 10:30
  right?
• 10:30
  Uh,
• 10:31
  it's a pretty significant.
• 10:33
  Rise there in that margin and it is a big deal.
• 10:36
  I mean,
• 10:36
  having
• 10:37
  seen these types of things
• 10:39
  is an indicator that
• 10:42
  catastrophic things for Republicans are possible.
• 10:44
  The,
• 10:44
  the most glorious day that
• 10:46
  Democrats can ever imagine is possible
• 10:48
  and also somewhat normal things,
• 10:51
  uh,
• 10:51
  of a,
• 10:51
  a party
• 10:52
  that is in power,
• 10:54
  uh,
• 10:54
  are very possible.
• 10:55
  Let me give you some of the,
• 10:56
  uh,
• 10:56
  context,
• 10:57
  uh,
• 10:57
  from Nate Silver's newsletter.
• 10:59
  Since World War Two,
• 11:00
  the opposition party has gained ground in House popular vote all but once,
• 11:04
  and that was 2002
• 11:05
  in the wake of the September 11th attacks
• 11:08
  and gained seats in the House all but twice,
• 11:09
  2002 and 1998
• 11:11
  as part of the backlash to perceived Republican overreach on Monica Lewinsky.
• 11:15
  The average shift,
• 11:17
  this is what we need to remember here,
• 11:18
  and we've gone through these numbers before,
• 11:19
  but to,
• 11:20
  to kind of recap,
• 11:21
  the average shift
• 11:22
  is a 7.4
• 11:23
  point swing.
• 11:25
  The interquartile range.
• 11:27
  Meaning between the 25th and 75th percentile is 4.8 to 10.8%.
• 11:32
  So,
• 11:33
  Kind of what you'd expect to happen is somewhere between 5 and 11 points.
• 11:38
  Is what he's saying,
• 11:39
  uh,
• 11:39
  that's within the interquartile range.
• 11:41
  Um,
• 11:42
  uh,
• 11:42
  this is,
• 11:43
  uh,
• 11:43
  the flipper,
• 11:44
  which is the name of his model,
• 11:45
  is currently projecting a 10.5
• 11:48
  point swing toward Democrats from 2024,
• 11:51
  10.5 points
• 11:53
  when they lost the House popular vote by 2.6 in 2024.
• 11:57
  That's within the range.
• 11:58
  It is also about the same as the previous two midterms
• 12:01
  with a Republican president.
• 12:02
  There was a 9.7
• 12:04
  point blue shift in the Trump one midterm
• 12:06
  and a 10.6 points in 2006.
• 12:10
  If you think about those two elections,
• 12:12
  2018 and 2006,
• 12:14
  what you think about I would say is a
• 12:17
  uh.
• 12:19
  The beginnings of catastrophe,
• 12:21
  the beginnings of tsunami territory.
• 12:25
  2006 was really rough for Republicans.
• 12:27
  2018,
• 12:28
  really rough for Republicans.
• 12:31
  I wouldn't call either one of those catastrophic.
• 12:34
  Like I,
• 12:35
  if 2006 or 2018 happens,
• 12:38
  I feel pretty well
• 12:39
  projected in my
• 12:41
  prediction market um positions that I have.
• 12:44
  And I've done this,
• 12:45
  I've gone through a bunch of different
• 12:47
  models and to test this because I wanna,
• 12:49
  I wanna make sure I have a risk tolerance model that I kind of run all my stuff through,
• 12:53
  just to make sure
• 12:54
  I don't have everything on one side and one
• 12:57
  little variable goes wrong and I lose everything.
• 12:59
  I don't want that.
• 13:00
  Um,
• 13:01
  now my profits will be a lot lower than I would like them to be
• 13:04
  if,
• 13:04
  if we go into 2006 or 2018,
• 13:07
  um,
• 13:08
  and I will not like the results of that election politically
• 13:10
  either.
• 13:11
  That will be bad news for conservative principles,
• 13:13
  which is something that I care about,
• 13:15
  um,
• 13:16
  regardless of whether you care or not about those though.
• 13:19
  Uh,
• 13:19
  what we're talking about here is how do you profit
• 13:22
  off of these elections and position yourself in a safe place
• 13:26
  so that you're,
• 13:26
  you're protected against outlier possibilities,
• 13:29
  but also can still see
• 13:31
  some profit.
• 13:32
  As I've said a million times on this show,
• 13:34
  we don't look at prediction markets as gambling.
• 13:37
  We don't look at prediction markets as,
• 13:38
  you know,
• 13:39
  YOLO,
• 13:39
  hey,
• 13:39
  100 to 1 shots all the time.
• 13:41
  That's not what we do here.
• 13:42
  If you can catch one of those,
• 13:44
  wonderful.
• 13:44
  We've caught stuff that's pretty similar to that,
• 13:46
  I don't know if 100 to 1.
• 13:48
  Um,
• 13:49
  yeah,
• 13:49
  I mean,
• 13:50
  I guess,
• 13:50
  yeah,
• 13:51
  I mean,
• 13:51
  we certainly caught a lot,
• 13:52
  uh,
• 13:53
  of really,
• 13:54
  really good,
• 13:55
  uh,
• 13:55
  victories.
• 13:55
  Certainly 10 and 20 to 1 multiple times over primary season.
• 14:01
  We
• 14:02
  want to look at this in a sober rational way.
• 14:05
  We want to look at
• 14:07
  uh these elections as great opportunities,
• 14:10
  depending on your risk tolerance to,
• 14:11
  to increase
• 14:13
  your wallet,
• 14:14
  to increase your pocketbook,
• 14:15
  to increase your portfolio,
• 14:16
  your investment accounts.
• 14:18
  You know,
• 14:18
  I think that prediction markets are a great piece
• 14:20
  of a prediction or of a uh investment portfolio.
• 14:24
  It's been part of mine for over 10 years.
• 14:26
  And
• 14:27
  what I've been able to do over these 10 years and we're,
• 14:28
  we're,
• 14:29
  we're doing together here on this show and on PredictableShow.com.
• 14:32
  is to build a
• 14:33
  uh uh a portfolio of positions in prediction markets that will
• 14:37
  certainly outdo what we're getting in,
• 14:39
  you know,
• 14:39
  bank accounts and,
• 14:40
  and most other investments.
• 14:42
  These opportunities are here
• 14:44
  and,
• 14:44
  you know,
• 14:45
  you don't hit every one of them.
• 14:47
  No one expects to hit every single one of them,
• 14:49
  but we hit almost all of them and we were up,
• 14:51
  up well over 90% during
• 14:52
  the,
• 14:53
  uh,
• 14:53
  primary season.
• 14:54
  And even on those,
• 14:55
  you know,
• 14:56
  bigger positions,
• 14:57
  we were almost 100%.
• 14:58
  I mean,
• 14:59
  I think we lost two of the,
• 15:00
  any position from
• 15:02
  Medium on up.
• 15:04
  We have 5 different position sizes,
• 15:05
  marker,
• 15:06
  small,
• 15:06
  medium,
• 15:07
  large,
• 15:07
  and,
• 15:08
  uh,
• 15:08
  all in.
• 15:10
  We lost 2 medium positions,
• 15:11
  I believe.
• 15:12
  One of them was Lindsey Graham,
• 15:14
  RIP.
• 15:15
  Uh,
• 15:15
  we had him winning by more than 20,
• 15:17
  and I think he lost,
• 15:17
  he won by
• 15:19
  less than that considerably.
• 15:20
  I think it was like 14 or something.
• 15:23
  And the other one was,
• 15:24
  uh,
• 15:25
  Francesca Hong,
• 15:26
  which actually was a small position until I increased it
• 15:29
  while the votes were being counted.
• 15:30
  So that was really just completely my fault.
• 15:33
  Anyway,
• 15:34
  let me give you a little bit more of the,
• 15:35
  of the context of what we're talking about from Nate
• 15:37
  Silver before we go into the breakdown of it.
• 15:39
  Um,
• 15:40
  he talks about other swings have been bigger
• 15:42
  post-World War Two record is 17.4 points in 2010.
• 15:46
  That's the Tea Party election.
• 15:48
  By the way,
• 15:48
  Nate Silver was the first person I remember
• 15:51
  even talking about that.
• 15:52
  Uh,
• 15:53
  reading all this analysis when he was,
• 15:54
  this is before he was well known at all,
• 15:56
  but he was breaking down,
• 15:57
  it was right after the Barack Obama election,
• 16:00
  and everyone was like,
• 16:01
  are the Republicans just gonna be a regional party?
• 16:03
  Can they even survive?
• 16:04
  Is this a post-Republican era?
• 16:07
  And he was like,
• 16:08
  actually,
• 16:08
  like,
• 16:09
  it's really common that we're gonna come back the other way,
• 16:11
  and I would not be surprised to see a massive
• 16:13
  swing the other direction.
• 16:15
  He called that one
• 16:16
  really,
• 16:17
  really early when Republicans were basically trying to hang themselves off of,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:20
  you know,
• 16:20
  uh,
• 16:21
  bridges.
• 16:22
  Um,
• 16:22
  OK,
• 16:23
  so,
• 16:23
  uh,
• 16:23
  17.4% in 2010,
• 16:25
  um,
• 16:26
  then that reflects how quickly Barack Obama
• 16:28
  went from hugely popular to quite unpopular.
• 16:31
  Obama brought big congressional majorities with him,
• 16:33
  sweeping into office in,
• 16:35
  uh,
• 16:35
  2008.
• 16:36
  By 2010,
• 16:37
  Democrats had lost a special election
• 16:39
  to replace Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts.
• 16:41
  So you see these waves,
• 16:43
  I mean that was even in the midterm.
• 16:45
  These waves happen
• 16:46
  quickly.
• 16:47
  He's got the picture of Scott Brown,
• 16:48
  who,
• 16:48
  by the way,
• 16:48
  ran this cycle as well,
• 16:50
  uh,
• 16:50
  but,
• 16:50
  uh,
• 16:50
  was unsuccessful.
• 16:52
  Uh,
• 16:52
  in his run in New Hampshire.
• 16:54
  Uh,
• 16:54
  1994 swing was bigger than the one we're projecting this year,
• 16:56
  so was 1966,
• 16:58
  uh,
• 16:58
  1974,
• 16:59
  and 1946.
• 17:01
  So basically saying,
• 17:02
  hey,
• 17:03
  these things can happen.
• 17:04
  One more note on this from Nate Silver.
• 17:05
  Flipper,
• 17:06
  again,
• 17:06
  the name of his model,
• 17:07
  does look at polls,
• 17:08
  of course,
• 17:09
  including Trump's approval rating,
• 17:10
  and the polls have been terrible,
• 17:12
  those polls have been terrible
• 17:13
  for Republicans.
• 17:14
  Still,
• 17:15
  in predicting a 10.5
• 17:17
  point shift toward Democrats,
• 17:19
  it's only projecting a swing about 3 points larger
• 17:21
  than the historical average of 7.4 points.
• 17:24
  And that seems pretty reasonable when you look at everything else.
• 17:27
  Trump is a lame duck.
• 17:28
  He's 80 years old.
• 17:29
  We're involved in the exactly sort of the
• 17:31
  Middle Eastern war he promised wouldn't happen.
• 17:33
  Gas costs almost $450 a gallon.
• 17:36
  He had a bad mitch in 2018,
• 17:37
  even when people thought the economy was good.
• 17:39
  And that's all,
• 17:40
  you know,
• 17:40
  a lot of that stuff,
• 17:40
  yeah,
• 17:41
  of course there's some opinion and takes on in there.
• 17:43
  Um,
• 17:44
  people have different opinions on Trump and,
• 17:45
  and how he's doing.
• 17:47
  But you know,
• 17:47
  there's no opinion on what the gas prices are,
• 17:49
  they are what they are.
• 17:51
  And
• 17:52
  they are massively affecting this situation right now.
• 17:55
  I wanna show you a graph.
• 17:56
  This is from the argument,
• 17:57
  um,
• 17:58
  uh,
• 17:58
  they do a great job breaking down election stuff as well,
• 18:00
  and you see here,
• 18:01
  what we see is a blue and a red line that kind of just
• 18:04
  go,
• 18:05
  uh,
• 18:05
  as opposed to each other,
• 18:06
  right?
• 18:06
  Like when one goes down,
• 18:07
  the other one goes up,
• 18:08
  and vice versa.
• 18:10
  These two things,
• 18:11
  it looks like it's just like,
• 18:12
  oh,
• 18:12
  approval and disapproval,
• 18:13
  right?
• 18:13
  Like that's how you'd normally see one of these charts where,
• 18:16
  uh,
• 18:16
  when something is falling,
• 18:17
  the other side is,
• 18:18
  if,
• 18:18
  if approval is falling,
• 18:19
  disapproval is rising,
• 18:20
  right?
• 18:21
  That's not what this measures at all.
• 18:22
  What it measures is Donald Trump's approval rating
• 18:25
  versus gas prices.
• 18:27
  And you see,
• 18:28
  as gas prices go up,
• 18:31
  Trump's approval rating comes down.
• 18:32
  Then gas prices drop for a little bit,
• 18:35
  Trump's approval rating bounces back.
• 18:37
  And this is,
• 18:37
  you know,
• 18:37
  month to month,
• 18:38
  this can happen in a few weeks.
• 18:39
  And then as you've seen recently,
• 18:41
  as prices have gone from 415 a gallon up to about 450 a gallon,
• 18:45
  Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped from -20 to -25.
• 18:49
  These gas prices are massively impactful.
• 18:53
  If Donald Trump wants to minimize the damage here,
• 18:57
  Getting those gas prices down any way he can would be a great start.
• 19:00
  I don't know how you do that.
• 19:01
  That's not easy to do.
• 19:02
  And of course,
• 19:03
  you know,
• 19:03
  the closer we get to the election,
• 19:05
  first of all,
• 19:06
  people are already casting
• 19:07
  votes as we discussed earlier,
• 19:08
  and secondly,
• 19:09
  you,
• 19:09
  you're at a position where
• 19:11
  people might not feel the impact of a drop.
• 19:13
  You know,
• 19:14
  you,
• 19:14
  if you drop
• 19:15
  the,
• 19:15
  the gas prices,
• 19:16
  a half week
• 19:18
  before the election.
• 19:20
  There's still gonna be pricing in what it was.
• 19:22
  You need to have a few weeks running,
• 19:24
  where people can say,
• 19:24
  OK,
• 19:25
  maybe this is,
• 19:25
  maybe he's right,
• 19:26
  maybe this is gonna go away,
• 19:27
  uh,
• 19:28
  it's not gonna be a long-term situation.
• 19:30
  And when I look for risk opportunities,
• 19:32
  the places where I'm most scared,
• 19:34
  Uh,
• 19:35
  where,
• 19:35
  where,
• 19:36
  where,
• 19:36
  um,
• 19:37
  uh,
• 19:37
  you look around and say,
• 19:38
  gosh,
• 19:39
  if this continues,
• 19:40
  maybe Republicans in bright right states are,
• 19:42
  uh,
• 19:43
  very vulnerable.
• 19:44
  You look at this particular map,
• 19:47
  um,
• 19:47
  and I,
• 19:48
  I think this is an impactful one.
• 19:49
  What is the,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:51
  what's the dependence on diesel fuel?
• 19:54
  In this country,
• 19:55
  where is it most?
• 19:56
  The number one state in the union is Alaska.
• 19:59
  You also see North Dakota in there,
• 20:01
  you got a little bit of Wyoming,
• 20:03
  you got some Nebraska,
• 20:04
  you've got a lot of those Midwestern states,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:08
  center of the country,
• 20:09
  really affected by diesel fuel.
• 20:11
  Those prices are at record highs.
• 20:13
  People are pissed off about it.
• 20:15
  And you,
• 20:16
  you know,
• 20:16
  you wonder whether those states.
• 20:19
  Will be,
• 20:19
  it's one of the reasons why I took a position on Mary Peltola in
• 20:22
  Alaska,
• 20:23
  even though I'm not
• 20:24
  100% convinced she's winning there,
• 20:26
  I like the hedge
• 20:28
  against real catastrophe.
• 20:30
  I mean,
• 20:30
  Republicans should be winning seats in Alaska.
• 20:32
  That should not be hard,
• 20:34
  uh,
• 20:34
  but
• 20:34
  in this environment,
• 20:35
  it is gonna be hard,
• 20:36
  and I don't know what's gonna happen there.
• 20:38
  And if things go even more toward the blue side of the argument,
• 20:42
  well,
• 20:43
  then we're gonna be seeing.
• 20:45
  Uh,
• 20:45
  those types of races maybe look a little bit more obvious here in the coming weeks.
• 20:50
  Let me show you a couple of new more polls because,
• 20:51
  you know,
• 20:52
  as Nate Silver was talking about,
• 20:53
  hey,
• 20:54
  this is,
• 20:54
  this could be catastrophic,
• 20:56
  uh,
• 20:56
  for Republicans,
• 20:57
  we're seeing numbers as high as,
• 20:58
  you know,
• 20:58
  10 and 12.
• 20:59
  Let me give you a couple other pieces of evidence.
• 21:01
  Uh,
• 21:01
  YouGov
• 21:02
  has a new poll out.
• 21:03
  Democrats lead in the congressional elections reaches another new high.
• 21:05
  We showed you this chart the other day and I was like,
• 21:07
  wow,
• 21:08
  that's crazy.
• 21:09
  Look how crazy it is now.
• 21:11
  Registered voters.
• 21:13
  Are at,
• 21:13
  um,
• 21:14
  uh,
• 21:15
  you know,
• 21:15
  have been rising.
• 21:16
  You can see the rise there.
• 21:17
  But as we pointed out,
• 21:18
  part of the rise,
• 21:20
  part of the optimism for the Democrats are,
• 21:22
  are these polls changing over
• 21:24
  from a registered voter model
• 21:26
  to a likely voters model.
• 21:29
  What does that mean?
• 21:30
  Well,
• 21:30
  registered voters are just basically a question,
• 21:32
  are you registered?
• 21:33
  Likely voters,
• 21:34
  uh,
• 21:34
  or,
• 21:35
  or could be they're going off a registered voter list to make
• 21:37
  list to make the phone calls in the first place.
• 21:39
  Likely voters though,
• 21:40
  is there's another screen to that.
• 21:41
  Is it,
• 21:42
  uh,
• 21:43
  sometimes some places just say,
• 21:44
  are you definitely gonna vote?
• 21:45
  And if they say yes,
• 21:46
  they're a likely voter.
• 21:47
  Some people look at election history.
• 21:49
  Hey,
• 21:49
  we noticed you've only voted in one of the last 4 midterms.
• 21:53
  You're probably not that likely a voter,
• 21:55
  even if you're telling me that you are.
• 21:57
  That is a big difference,
• 21:59
  but you see,
• 21:59
  Democrats are performing much,
• 22:01
  much better
• 22:02
  in the likely voter measures,
• 22:03
  and that's part of the reason why I think there's so much optimism
• 22:07
  for Democrats right now over Republicans.
• 22:09
  You see in this most recent result from YouGov,
• 22:12
  that registered voters actually ticked down
• 22:15
  from about 7 to 6%,
• 22:17
  so Democrats plus 7.
• 22:18
  Uh,
• 22:18
  down to Democrats plus 6.
• 22:20
  Democrats plus 6,
• 22:21
  if that's where it really was on election day,
• 22:24
  is,
• 22:24
  you know,
• 22:25
  a bad year,
• 22:25
  but it's not as bad as 2018 or 2006.
• 22:29
  A likely voters,
• 22:30
  the likely voters number,
• 22:31
  as you see though,
• 22:32
  is skyrocketing.
• 22:33
  This could be an indication of Democratic passion and enthusiasm for this election
• 22:37
  that maybe hasn't kicked in for Republicans.
• 22:40
  What we've seen recently on that measure is usually by election day
• 22:44
  that has
• 22:45
  calmed down and evened out
• 22:46
  where Republicans or whatever party is behind in enthusiasm.
• 22:50
  Winds up getting pissed off about the election and coming back.
• 22:53
  But the new mark,
• 22:54
  if you show that chart,
• 22:55
  the new mark
• 22:56
  for uh
• 22:57
  Democrats uh in the likely voter measure is +16.
• 23:03
  Plus 16.
• 23:04
  Plus 16 is off the charts.
• 23:06
  It's,
• 23:07
  I mean,
• 23:07
  it goes back beyond every,
• 23:08
  every historical example.
• 23:10
  I think,
• 23:11
  uh,
• 23:12
  Silver referred to here,
• 23:13
  what was the biggest one.
• 23:15
  Was the biggest one,
• 23:16
  Tea Party?
• 23:17
  Tea Party was 17.4%.
• 23:19
  So you're talking about Tea Party
• 23:21
  level
• 23:22
  sort of differences.
• 23:23
  Now that's one poll,
• 23:23
  it's not the average,
• 23:24
  it's not the final result,
• 23:25
  obviously,
• 23:26
  those,
• 23:26
  that was the actual final result at 17.4 points in the Tea Party election.
• 23:30
  Lots of things can change.
• 23:31
  There's still multiple weeks before the election.
• 23:33
  Prices could come down if there was some sort of
• 23:36
  healing of some sort in Iran.
• 23:39
  That would go a long way.
• 23:40
  There's a lot of stuff to look at and a lot of things that can change.
• 23:43
  One other poll just came out,
• 23:44
  this is from Quinnipiac.
• 23:45
  Again,
• 23:45
  Quinnipiac,
• 23:46
  not the most favorable pollster,
• 23:47
  uh,
• 23:48
  to,
• 23:48
  uh,
• 23:48
  conservatives,
• 23:49
  even though they are a legit pollster.
• 23:51
  Uh,
• 23:51
  12 points they find.
• 23:52
  Republicans trail Democrats by 12 points
• 23:54
  in the battle for the House,
• 23:57
  uh,
• 23:57
  and that is,
• 23:58
  uh,
• 23:58
  another big,
• 23:59
  big margin approaching
• 24:01
  somewhere between 2018
• 24:03
  and 2010 levels.
• 24:06
  And it's hard to kind of square this with some
• 24:07
  of the other polling that has been coming out.
• 24:11
  The generic ballot is really useful to give you a tone and a climate.
• 24:15
  It's like a climate check,
• 24:17
  right?
• 24:17
  What's the temperature of this election?
• 24:19
  What's the current of the river?
• 24:21
  What way is it pulling?
• 24:22
  That's what the generic ballot
• 24:23
  often is able to tell you.
• 24:26
  When you look at
• 24:27
  the polling that's coming out in specific states,
• 24:29
  and these are states that
• 24:30
  you'd be worried about
• 24:31
  in this environment of 16 and 17 point margins.
• 24:35
  Are states like Iowa.
• 24:36
  Let me show you that this is all,
• 24:38
  these are all polls that came out in the last 24 hours.
• 24:39
  Iowa,
• 24:40
  Ashley Hinson
• 24:41
  is up 2
• 24:43
  over the Democrat
• 24:44
  in Iowa,
• 24:45
  um,
• 24:45
  and in both versions of the Quantas poll,
• 24:48
  she's up 2.
• 24:49
  This one's even crazier.
• 24:50
  Peggy Flanagan,
• 24:52
  the Democrat,
• 24:53
  is only up by 1
• 24:54
  over Michelle Tafoya,
• 24:56
  the Republican.
• 24:57
  I've talked about Tafoya before.
• 24:59
  I think she's a good candidate.
• 25:00
  I do not expect her to win this race in this environment.
• 25:03
  However,
• 25:03
  she's showing herself to be very competitive there.
• 25:06
  And Flanagan,
• 25:07
  who is,
• 25:08
  you know,
• 25:08
  uh,
• 25:08
  uh,
• 25:08
  pretty far left,
• 25:09
  like she's not quite,
• 25:10
  she doesn't call herself a democratic socialist,
• 25:12
  but her primary election,
• 25:13
  which by the way,
• 25:14
  we made good money on,
• 25:15
  was sort of the,
• 25:16
  uh,
• 25:16
  Democratic socialist versus the more standard Democrat,
• 25:19
  and that played out in the way that it
• 25:20
  played out in many other states around the country.
• 25:22
  We,
• 25:22
  you know,
• 25:23
  we're not geniuses here,
• 25:24
  we just noticed that trend
• 25:25
  and we're able to profit off of that election.
• 25:27
  Is Flanagan 2 left for Minnesota?
• 25:29
  I,
• 25:29
  I,
• 25:30
  I still am not a believer
• 25:32
  that she's gonna lose that race.
• 25:33
  However,
• 25:35
  only 1 point.
• 25:36
  It's interesting,
• 25:37
  and how can that be happening in an
• 25:38
  environment where we're looking at all-time wave categories?
• 25:41
  It doesn't make any sense.
• 25:42
  Candidate quality does matter.
• 25:44
  Individual races do matter.
• 25:45
  Local state races do matter.
• 25:47
  Another thing you'll find that does matter,
• 25:49
  uh,
• 25:50
  frankly,
• 25:50
  when it comes to governor of Minnesota,
• 25:52
  is how terrible Tim Walls is.
• 25:54
  That is just a real thing that people in
• 25:56
  Minnesota have to deal with on a regular basis.
• 25:58
  Scandals everywhere,
• 25:59
  the fact that he's just absolutely terrible,
• 26:01
  uh,
• 26:01
  the fact that,
• 26:02
  I mean,
• 26:02
  that's just science.
• 26:05
  Frankly,
• 26:05
  uh,
• 26:06
  Tim Wall sucks.
• 26:07
  Uh,
• 26:07
  so
• 26:07
  that is,
• 26:08
  I think,
• 26:09
  probably what's keeping that race mostly close and combined
• 26:11
  with the fact that Tafoya is a good communicator and
• 26:14
  And a,
• 26:14
  and a good candidate.
• 26:15
  So anyway,
• 26:15
  that's a close one.
• 26:16
  You also have Michigan with El Sayed leading by 7 over Rodgers.
• 26:20
  Uh,
• 26:20
  but again,
• 26:20
  Texas here.
• 26:21
  Now,
• 26:21
  this is sponsored by Ken Paxton,
• 26:23
  so you got to take it with a grain of salt,
• 26:24
  but he's up 3
• 26:26
  in that race,
• 26:26
  Ken Paxton winning.
• 26:28
  Uh,
• 26:28
  Ohio has a big data poll with Sherrod Brown only up by,
• 26:31
  it says
• 26:31
  it's 3 or 4 depending on how you're rounding
• 26:33
  there,
• 26:34
  uh,
• 26:34
  Massachusetts mark you plus 26 is of course what you expect.
• 26:37
  Bottom line though is that there are some good
• 26:39
  polling for Republicans that keeps popping into this picture.
• 26:42
  This is not universally bad for Republicans,
• 26:44
  and there are reasons.
• 26:45
  Understand and believe,
• 26:47
  uh,
• 26:47
  that the,
• 26:47
  you know,
• 26:48
  the absolute wave is not
• 26:50
  the most common thing.
• 26:51
  We're getting to the point now with some of these modelers,
• 26:54
  um,
• 26:54
  we're seeing this across,
• 26:56
  uh,
• 26:56
  50+1 is definitely in this category.
• 26:58
  Um,
• 26:59
  uh,
• 26:59
  Nate Silver is getting into that category.
• 27:01
  And,
• 27:01
  and if you think about Nate Silver,
• 27:02
  you may,
• 27:03
  he's like the most famous guy doing this as far as modeling goes,
• 27:06
  but he's also been like,
• 27:08
  uh,
• 27:09
  not the guy that jumps to the most Democrat conclusion.
• 27:12
  Right,
• 27:13
  he was the most optimistic out of all these modelers on Trump in 2016.
• 27:17
  Um,
• 27:17
  he,
• 27:18
  uh,
• 27:18
  you know,
• 27:19
  is not the type,
• 27:20
  he's not,
• 27:20
  there's some of these other models that are,
• 27:22
  you know,
• 27:22
  there's one,
• 27:23
  I think it is 50 + 1 that has,
• 27:25
  um,
• 27:26
  Democrats at 98% chance to win the House.
• 27:28
  There are people that are way more optimistic down this road.
• 27:31
  I still think of it as an outlier possibility
• 27:34
  when we're talking mega wave.
• 27:36
  Talking
• 27:37
  convincing victory,
• 27:38
  2018 is very much in the realm of possibility though.
• 27:42
  That seems very much in the realm of possibility.
• 27:44
  So,
• 27:45
  that's what's going on in the election.
• 27:46
  We of course have more coming up this week and at predictableShow.com.
• 27:49
  Just also wanna remind you,
• 27:50
  we're getting into debate season.
• 27:52
  We're gonna be doing,
• 27:53
  I don't know if we'll do one tonight,
• 27:54
  but we're gonna be doing some of these uh mention markets on the debates,
• 27:56
  watching them along with you at,
• 27:57
  at night.
• 27:58
  California's got one tonight.
• 28:00
  Uh,
• 28:00
  this is,
• 28:01
  uh,
• 28:01
  Javier Becerra versus
• 28:03
  Steve Hilton.
• 28:04
  Be interesting to see on this one because Hilton,
• 28:06
  obviously,
• 28:07
  he,
• 28:07
  you know,
• 28:07
  his world is a communicator.
• 28:09
  That's like what he's known for and why people know who he is.
• 28:12
  He was a political guy,
• 28:13
  uh,
• 28:13
  kind of before that,
• 28:14
  uh,
• 28:14
  overseas,
• 28:14
  but,
• 28:15
  uh,
• 28:15
  really a,
• 28:16
  a commentator on Fox News is what he's known for maybe now
• 28:19
  the most.
• 28:20
  And,
• 28:21
  you know,
• 28:21
  he's gonna be probably pretty good in the debate.
• 28:23
  He's probably gonna do pretty well
• 28:25
  in the debate.
• 28:26
  He did well in the primary debates,
• 28:27
  and I expect him to do pretty well
• 28:29
  tonight with Becerra.
• 28:29
  Will that be enough
• 28:31
  to,
• 28:31
  uh,
• 28:32
  change that race and the outcome?
• 28:33
  I think that's a really tall task
• 28:35
  for a Republican in this environment in California,
• 28:38
  but we'll be watching.
• 28:39
  We'll be watching very closely and hopefully watching along with you.
• 28:42
  We have more coming up on Predictable with Stu here in just a moment.
• 29:11
  Yes,
• 29:12
  it's the curse of the candidate countdown.
• 29:14
  We do a segment every day,
• 29:16
  which is the candidate countdown.
• 29:17
  We give you a race
• 29:19
  that we're watching and we have a position on that we think could be profitable
• 29:23
  heading into the midterms and
• 29:25
  we started noticing a few of them as soon as we would do them on candidate countdown,
• 29:29
  like there'd be a big report of a scandal.
• 29:31
  Or the polling would inexplicably drop,
• 29:34
  or they just have a terrible week,
• 29:36
  the worst week of their entire,
• 29:37
  the worst poll,
• 29:38
  the worst incident of their entire campaign.
• 29:41
  We realized it was cursed and so
• 29:43
  we're trying to take advantage of that curse power that we have,
• 29:45
  uh,
• 29:46
  but also fake continuing to feature,
• 29:48
  uh,
• 29:49
  candidates each day that we do think
• 29:50
  are good investments and this one is in some,
• 29:52
  the value is starting to go away,
• 29:53
  honestly,
• 29:54
  um,
• 29:55
  apparently not the only one on this one,
• 29:56
  but I,
• 29:56
  I find this one to be fascinating.
• 29:58
  Uh,
• 29:59
  candidate countdown,
• 29:59
  34 days until the election and our candidate countdown candidate of the day is
• 30:05
  Rebecca Bennett.
• 30:07
  She's from New Jersey and she is a Democrat.
• 30:10
  Hope she doesn't feel the curse
• 30:12
  of the candidate countdown,
• 30:13
  but
• 30:14
  What I will say is this race is really not that much about Rebecca Bennett.
• 30:18
  Uh,
• 30:19
  you know,
• 30:20
  she,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:21
  she has an interesting profile.
• 30:22
  I'll tell you a little bit about her here in a second,
• 30:24
  but
• 30:26
  It's really about her opponent.
• 30:28
  And she's going up against Thomas Kean Jr.
• 30:30
  Now,
• 30:31
  when you go back and you look at,
• 30:33
  uh,
• 30:34
  Thomas Kean Jr.s electoral history,
• 30:36
  he's,
• 30:36
  he's won a couple of elections in a row,
• 30:38
  but they've been close.
• 30:39
  And he won by like 3 and 5 points.
• 30:41
  So close,
• 30:42
  you think of it almost purplish sort of district here,
• 30:44
  right?
• 30:45
  Democrats can win that in a good environment,
• 30:48
  uh,
• 30:48
  and Republicans,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:50
  you know,
• 30:50
  can also win when it's good,
• 30:51
  a good year for them.
• 30:54
  Thomas Keene is in this race,
• 30:56
  and he is running.
• 30:57
  He ran unopposed in the primary,
• 30:59
  and he is now going up against Rebecca Bennett.
• 31:03
  The issue here,
• 31:04
  and if you don't remember this story,
• 31:06
  it was a big one.
• 31:07
  Is the fact that
• 31:09
  Thomas Kean just kind of disappeared for multiple months
• 31:12
  and no one knew what was going on.
• 31:14
  He kind of disappeared,
• 31:15
  he didn't show up to work,
• 31:16
  he didn't do any votes,
• 31:17
  he didn't do anything
• 31:19
  for multiple
• 31:20
  months,
• 31:20
  over 100 days.
• 31:22
  He was gone.
• 31:23
  People,
• 31:24
  there's some people who thought he was dead.
• 31:26
  Uh,
• 31:26
  thankfully he's not.
• 31:27
  Uh,
• 31:27
  he is very much alive and running,
• 31:29
  uh,
• 31:29
  for this particular seat.
• 31:31
  He was dealing with what they say is a significant battle with depression.
• 31:35
  And like,
• 31:35
  you know,
• 31:36
  look,
• 31:36
  depression's real,
• 31:36
  it can really affect people.
• 31:38
  Um,
• 31:39
  the question is if you have debilitating depression
• 31:42
  for the type that makes you not show up for over 100 days and over,
• 31:45
  you know,
• 31:45
  100 votes or whatever it was.
• 31:48
  Should you be a congressperson in the first place?
• 31:50
  This is something that the people in this district are going to have to weigh.
• 31:53
  He missed 140 votes during nearly four months off.
• 31:57
  He,
• 31:57
  um,
• 31:58
  voted,
• 31:58
  uh,
• 31:59
  it was between March 5th and June 30th.
• 32:01
  No one knew where he was.
• 32:02
  He said he was hospitalized for depression.
• 32:04
  The treatment took longer than expected.
• 32:07
  Um,
• 32:07
  he didn't really say much of anything.
• 32:09
  Um,
• 32:10
  to the point that the House Speaker Mike Johnson was like,
• 32:12
  hey,
• 32:12
  can you be a little more transparent about what's going on?
• 32:14
  I mean,
• 32:15
  I get that this is a personal
• 32:16
  medical thing,
• 32:17
  but like,
• 32:18
  you're representative of the people here.
• 32:20
  Um,
• 32:21
  Bennett is leading in some polls.
• 32:23
  Uh,
• 32:23
  we'll get to,
• 32:24
  uh,
• 32:24
  uh,
• 32:25
  breakdown of that here in a minute,
• 32:26
  but there's not a lot of polling in this race.
• 32:28
  This is one where
• 32:29
  I'm looking at the history.
• 32:31
  You've got a close electoral history.
• 32:33
  You've got a Democratic leaning year,
• 32:35
  at least historically we've always seen that.
• 32:37
  We don't have that final result,
• 32:38
  of course,
• 32:38
  but that's what we're expecting and planning for.
• 32:41
  And um.
• 32:43
  You have this situation with him just not being around,
• 32:45
  right?
• 32:46
  Like I think even with him
• 32:47
  not having the battle of the depression,
• 32:48
  not disappearing for multiple months.
• 32:51
  I'd still probably lean toward Bennett in this race just given the climate
• 32:54
  of the situation.
• 32:55
  Keene's job approval,
• 32:57
  not good,
• 32:57
  as you might expect after a situation like this.
• 33:00
  37% approval,
• 33:01
  60% disapproval.
• 33:03
  Bennett,
• 33:04
  his opponent in that same survey,
• 33:06
  40% approval,
• 33:07
  uh,
• 33:08
  40% favorable,
• 33:09
  30% unfavorable.
• 33:11
  Uh,
• 33:11
  another
• 33:11
  poll had,
• 33:12
  uh,
• 33:12
  Keene underwater by 18 points.
• 33:15
  Regardless,
• 33:15
  none of those polls are good.
• 33:18
  Um,
• 33:19
  her supporters are highly motivated because of everything that's going on here.
• 33:24
  Um,
• 33:24
  Bennet has some a decent amount of fundraising.
• 33:27
  Uh,
• 33:29
  Democrats carried this district during the gubernatorial race
• 33:33
  last year.
• 33:34
  They had a 2025 gubernatorial race,
• 33:36
  um,
• 33:36
  and,
• 33:37
  uh,
• 33:37
  and Mikey Sherrill,
• 33:39
  the Democrat,
• 33:39
  won over Jack
• 33:40
  Cittarelli,
• 33:41
  uh,
• 33:41
  which was 50 to 48.
• 33:43
  So
• 33:44
  Democrats,
• 33:45
  I think already favored without the big absence.
• 33:48
  Um
• 33:49
  And there's,
• 33:49
  you know,
• 33:49
  been a bunch of endorsement stuff.
• 33:51
  Now,
• 33:51
  Bennett has won this district twice,
• 33:52
  won by 2.8 and 5.4 points.
• 33:56
  Um,
• 33:57
  Keene,
• 33:58
  uh,
• 33:59
  actually outperformed Trump
• 34:01
  in the 2024 election,
• 34:02
  so he wasn't
• 34:04
  seen this badly the whole time.
• 34:05
  It's just,
• 34:06
  look,
• 34:06
  he's had a,
• 34:07
  he,
• 34:07
  he's either had a tough year or he handled it very,
• 34:09
  very poorly.
• 34:10
  Um,
• 34:10
  he has a lot of money,
• 34:11
  so that shouldn't be a problem.
• 34:13
  Um,
• 34:13
  and that's about it as far as points on his favor.
• 34:16
  Now,
• 34:16
  they did just have a debate.
• 34:17
  Um,
• 34:17
  we'll tell you about that in a second.
• 34:19
  Keene was defending himself on his handling of his 3-month medical
• 34:21
  absence and missing of 100+ votes and only debate with Democrat
• 34:25
  Rebecca Bennett.
• 34:27
  Um,
• 34:28
  and,
• 34:28
  you know,
• 34:28
  they were
• 34:29
  like,
• 34:29
  man,
• 34:29
  Bennett
• 34:30
  has a little bit of connection to something we've been talking about a lot this week.
• 34:33
  There was the sort of fake
• 34:36
  independent thing
• 34:37
  that we have discussed before.
• 34:39
  Uh,
• 34:40
  Bennett kind of running in that sort of fake former GOP person.
• 34:44
  I swear,
• 34:44
  you know,
• 34:45
  yeah,
• 34:45
  I don't know.
• 34:45
  Yeah,
• 34:46
  I used to be a Republican.
• 34:47
  I can understand that side.
• 34:48
  Uh,
• 34:48
  there's several of them running,
• 34:50
  uh,
• 34:51
  midterm election 2026 meet ex-GOPs running as Dems,
• 34:54
  why they might struggle to win over voters.
• 34:56
  This is sort of like a diff
• 34:57
  another
• 34:58
  bite at the apple
• 34:59
  for Democrats and when they're not doing the fake independent thing.
• 35:02
  I will be,
• 35:03
  that being said here,
• 35:03
  they could be very competitive here with a normal Democrat,
• 35:06
  let alone one that has some GOP credibility that might help a little bit in this race,
• 35:10
  let alone Keen having all sorts of problems.
• 35:13
  Now,
• 35:14
  uh,
• 35:14
  the polling showed,
• 35:15
  as I mentioned,
• 35:15
  that one insider,
• 35:16
  uh,
• 35:17
  NJ poll,
• 35:18
  547 for Bennett,
• 35:21
  42 for Keene.
• 35:22
  Previous poll had it 47-43 from several months previous.
• 35:26
  All this adds up to,
• 35:27
  I think
• 35:28
  Keene is probably gonna go down here in this race.
• 35:30
  This is a very,
• 35:31
  very vulnerable.
• 35:32
  Um,
• 35:33
  this is what it looks like.
• 35:34
  It has risen,
• 35:35
  I will tell you,
• 35:35
  over the past few days since we talked about it,
• 35:37
  uh,
• 35:38
  and had,
• 35:38
  uh,
• 35:38
  a little bit of a,
• 35:39
  uh,
• 35:40
  a bump.
• 35:41
  And,
• 35:41
  you know,
• 35:41
  look,
• 35:42
  if you're a premium subscriber,
• 35:43
  you may have heard me talk about this race,
• 35:45
  um,
• 35:45
  a couple of times.
• 35:47
  You may,
• 35:48
  you may be the reason why it's moving so much.
• 35:50
  There's a lot of volume in this market though,
• 35:51
  214,000,
• 35:52
  or moderate volume.
• 35:54
  Uh,
• 35:54
  214,000 already in there.
• 35:56
  Uh,
• 35:57
  some of that I'm sure is premium subscribers who have seen this,
• 35:59
  and it is rising,
• 35:59
  and it's now at 89.
• 36:01
  Again,
• 36:03
  Is this a lock?
• 36:05
  I wouldn't say that.
• 36:06
  Everything about this race tells me
• 36:08
  it's a lock,
• 36:09
  um,
• 36:10
  you know,
• 36:10
  and again,
• 36:11
  First Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
• 36:12
  a sure thing always has air quotes.
• 36:14
  So when I say it's a lock or a sure thing,
• 36:16
  nothing's a sure thing,
• 36:17
  nothing's a lock.
• 36:18
  But
• 36:19
  when we talk about a race like this,
• 36:20
  everything adds up to
• 36:21
  Thomas Keane losing.
• 36:22
  He does have a big name in the state.
• 36:24
  He is well known,
• 36:25
  maybe there's a sympathy factor to what he's gone through,
• 36:28
  that's possible.
• 36:29
  Um,
• 36:29
  there's not a lot of polling here.
• 36:30
  There's a little bit of flying blind going on this,
• 36:32
  with this one,
• 36:33
  but an 11% gain over 4 or 5 weeks,
• 36:37
  not too shabby for a race like this.
• 36:39
  Um,
• 36:39
  I did buy it a little bit earlier when I was getting more like 15 or 16%,
• 36:42
  but still,
• 36:44
  I think it's,
• 36:44
  there's still some value here.
• 36:45
  So that's our candidate of the day.
• 36:47
  It is Rebecca Bennett,
• 36:48
  who we just hope
• 36:50
  is not cursed,
• 36:51
  because we tend to curse candidates on candidate of the day.
• 36:54
  We hope that doesn't happen to
• 36:56
  Rebecca.
• 36:56
  I'm sure she's a lovely.
• 36:57
  Can we call her Becky?
• 36:59
  Is it possible to just call her Becky Bennett,
• 37:00
  and then she can go,
• 37:01
  she's like she's on Full House.
• 37:03
  Then I'll,
• 37:04
  she looks,
• 37:04
  she kind of looks like,
• 37:05
  doesn't she kind of look like we have a picture of her?
• 37:07
  I don't know,
• 37:07
  we don't have the picture of her anymore,
• 37:09
  uh,
• 37:09
  but she kind of looks like she could have been a cast member on Full.
• 37:12
  Look at that.
• 37:12
  You're telling me that she couldn't have been on Full House?
• 37:15
  Absolutely.
• 37:16
  I think she probably would have been the comedian,
• 37:19
  the,
• 37:19
  the guy who used to do stand-up comedy's girlfriend.
• 37:21
  Does that sound plausible,
• 37:22
  Adam?
• 37:23
  Most plausible scenario.
• 37:27
  Is it Danny?
• 37:28
  I don't know.
• 37:29
  Uncle Danny,
• 37:30
  Uncle Joey,
• 37:30
  Joey,
• 37:31
  I think it was Joey.
• 37:32
  That's what I'm thinking of at least.
• 37:33
  So Joey's girlfriend
• 37:35
  on
• 37:36
  uh
• 37:38
  Full house
• 37:39
  and also running for
• 37:40
  the house.
• 37:42
  There's a lot of full house jokes that you could make
• 37:45
  with the house,
• 37:45
  but I'm not gonna make any of them because we have to take a break back in a second.
• 38:00
  You know,
• 38:02
  prediction markets,
• 38:03
  nothing but the wild west.
• 38:05
  No regulation.
• 38:07
  No one even looks at it.
• 38:09
  Anything can happen on a prediction market.
• 38:11
  This is how the,
• 38:11
  the news covers prediction markets.
• 38:13
  None of that's true,
• 38:14
  by the way.
• 38:15
  Uh,
• 38:15
  it is overseen by the CFTC.
• 38:18
  Uh,
• 38:18
  we've talked to Michael Selig on this show before.
• 38:21
  He's looking at all this stuff all the time.
• 38:23
  And in fact,
• 38:24
  you know,
• 38:25
  everyone was so convinced that there's a wild,
• 38:27
  wild west,
• 38:27
  no one's overlooking,
• 38:28
  no one's overseeing these markets.
• 38:30
  I don't know if I ever heard that from Adam Kinzinger,
• 38:32
  but I feel like I did.
• 38:33
  Maybe I didn't.
• 38:34
  I'm just,
• 38:35
  I'm used to him preaching to us about,
• 38:37
  you know,
• 38:37
  this or that.
• 38:38
  But,
• 38:38
  uh,
• 38:39
  financial regulators,
• 38:40
  the CFTC are investigating Adam Kinzinger over
• 38:43
  trading on Calci,
• 38:45
  one of the prediction markets.
• 38:46
  Now,
• 38:47
  both
• 38:47
  Calci and
• 38:48
  Polymarket and everybody else,
• 38:49
  they,
• 38:50
  they look out for this stuff.
• 38:51
  They want to shut it down because it's,
• 38:52
  number one,
• 38:53
  it's illegal,
• 38:54
  uh,
• 38:54
  and it puts them at odds with regulators.
• 38:56
  It makes their whole business,
• 38:57
  multi-billion dollar business,
• 38:58
  not look good.
• 38:59
  So they all wanna stop this stuff,
• 39:01
  uh,
• 39:01
  despite what the news will tell you.
• 39:03
  But,
• 39:04
  uh,
• 39:05
  It's fascinating to see that the opposite is what's always said in,
• 39:09
  in the media,
• 39:10
  and it's fascinating to see this particular case because
• 39:13
  it goes back to Joe Biden and his time.
• 39:16
  If you remember,
• 39:16
  Adam Kinzinger was,
• 39:17
  we're just talking about people who
• 39:19
  said they were Republicans or were Republicans at one
• 39:21
  time and kind of like wound up just being
• 39:23
  known
• 39:24
  as
• 39:25
  essentially Democrats
• 39:27
  who would go on television and say,
• 39:28
  I'm a,
• 39:29
  look,
• 39:29
  I'm a Republican,
• 39:30
  but this Donald Trump guy,
• 39:31
  blah blah blah,
• 39:32
  like that was Adam Kinzinger.
• 39:33
  He wound up going on the January 6th
• 39:37
  investigatory
• 39:38
  panel
• 39:39
  because he was,
• 39:41
  uh,
• 39:41
  the commission
• 39:42
  to go after Donald Trump after the January 6th
• 39:45
  incidents.
• 39:47
  Um,
• 39:47
  and because of that,
• 39:49
  you may remember this toward the end of the,
• 39:51
  the Biden administration,
• 39:52
  Biden issues preemptive pardons for January 6th
• 39:55
  committee and witnesses as well as Anthony Fauci
• 39:58
  and Mark Milley.
• 39:59
  Um,
• 40:00
  included in that was Adam Schiff,
• 40:02
  uh,
• 40:02
  Liz Cheney,
• 40:04
  um,
• 40:04
  Stephanie Murphy,
• 40:06
  uh,
• 40:06
  Pete Aguilar,
• 40:08
  uh,
• 40:09
  Zoe Lofgren,
• 40:10
  uh,
• 40:11
  Jamie Raskin,
• 40:11
  Benny Thompson,
• 40:12
  and Adam Kinzinger,
• 40:14
  who was not a representative,
• 40:15
  if I remember right,
• 40:16
  at that
• 40:17
  time,
• 40:17
  maybe he was still in there,
• 40:18
  but,
• 40:19
  uh,
• 40:19
  he eventually,
• 40:19
  he's not no longer now.
• 40:21
  He's just essentially an MSNBC guest as professionally,
• 40:24
  uh,
• 40:24
  at this point.
• 40:25
  Um,
• 40:25
  but he apparently,
• 40:27
  He was having a little thing where he knew
• 40:30
  allegedly that he was getting a pardon
• 40:32
  and guess what market he was in on Calsie?
• 40:35
  Will he get a pardon?
• 40:37
  At least that's the report.
• 40:38
  He says,
• 40:39
  I was not a congressman.
• 40:40
  That's right.
• 40:40
  He had already stepped down or a candidate and had been
• 40:42
  out of office for 2 years and had no inside information,
• 40:45
  he said.
• 40:46
  I just read the rules of Calsie before making wagers,
• 40:49
  investments.
• 40:51
  Tisk tisk tisk,
• 40:53
  um,
• 40:53
  uh,
• 40:54
  and general provisions were that you could not work for a source agency.
• 40:57
  Influence its outcome or have non-public information about it.
• 41:00
  I felt confident in this because I had never
• 41:02
  had a conversation with anyone about the pardons,
• 41:04
  much less anyone
• 41:05
  anywhere near the White House.
• 41:07
  Look,
• 41:08
  this is just me talking,
• 41:09
  just my opinion.
• 41:10
  If you believe that,
• 41:10
  you'll believe anything.
• 41:12
  If you believe that Adam Kinzinger never had a conversation about pardons.
• 41:17
  You'll believe literally
• 41:19
  anything that I say,
• 41:20
  anything that anyone says,
• 41:21
  because I don't buy that for a second,
• 41:23
  though that is his claim.
• 41:25
  He retired from Congress in 2023.
• 41:27
  Uh,
• 41:27
  he did get that pardon,
• 41:28
  pardon,
• 41:29
  and he was using the prediction markets to,
• 41:31
  uh,
• 41:32
  figure out whether he was going to get a pardon
• 41:34
  from,
• 41:34
  uh,
• 41:35
  Joe Biden and profiting off of that.
• 41:37
  According to screenshots provided by Kinzinger,
• 41:39
  he made $823 on the,
• 41:41
  on the trade.
• 41:42
  So he also,
• 41:42
  he said 25 trades or so at the time
• 41:44
  and mostly lost money.
• 41:46
  Uh,
• 41:47
  that's what he says.
• 41:48
  Anyway,
• 41:48
  it's not the biggest scandal in the world,
• 41:50
  and,
• 41:50
  uh,
• 41:51
  you know,
• 41:51
  I don't know,
• 41:52
  it's,
• 41:52
  it's a borderline thing,
• 41:53
  but it is funny from the people that are constantly preaching to us
• 41:56
  that when they had the opportunity,
• 41:57
  thought they could get away with it,
• 41:59
  um,
• 41:59
  they went to the wild,
• 42:00
  wild west
• 42:02
  and are now being taken to task by
• 42:04
  the CFTC.
• 42:15
  So much going on with the elections.
• 42:16
  That's kind of where we are right now.
• 42:18
  I mean,
• 42:18
  we'll dabble here in sports and culture and everything else when,
• 42:21
  when the time presents itself,
• 42:23
  but
• 42:23
  we're in election crunch time right now.
• 42:25
  There's a massive opportunity for you to get involved in this.
• 42:27
  If you'd like to be profitable
• 42:29
  in prediction markets,
• 42:30
  we think this is a great place for you to be.
• 42:32
  We have a free membership at predictableShow.com
• 42:34
  and predictable 101 is a free resource for you to go,
• 42:37
  predictable101.com.
• 42:39
  They've got great videos,
• 42:40
  they've got great,
• 42:41
  uh,
• 42:42
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• 42:44
  at the beginning all the way through making trades and everything else.
• 42:47
  And then we have advanced resources as well as far as the premium subscribers,
• 42:51
  uh,
• 42:51
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• 42:52
  which includes a great chat with a great community
• 42:55
  behind the paywall,
• 42:56
  uh,
• 42:57
  where you see really smart traders,
• 42:59
  some of the biggest traders in the world
• 43:00
  are on this platform talking with each other.
• 43:02
  We also have,
• 43:03
  uh,
• 43:03
  Stu's picks.
• 43:04
  You get to see every single prediction market position that I have in my portfolio.
• 43:08
  That's updated weekly
• 43:09
  so you can kind of play along or make fun of me.
• 43:12
  Uh,
• 43:12
  we have,
• 43:13
  uh,
• 43:13
  the,
• 43:14
  uh,
• 43:14
  prediction model.
• 43:15
  We are,
• 43:15
  uh,
• 43:16
  we have,
• 43:16
  um,
• 43:17
  uh,
• 43:17
  a Senate board for you to play around with.
• 43:19
  I have another great feature that's I thought was gonna come out this week,
• 43:21
  probably gonna be Monday,
• 43:23
  uh,
• 43:23
  but you're gonna like that as well.
• 43:24
  So much great stuff there.
• 43:26
  I encourage you,
• 43:26
  if you want to do this,
• 43:27
  you wanna do it right,
• 43:28
  you wanna make some money on prediction markets,
• 43:30
  treat it like an investment instead of throwing your money away
• 43:32
  or gambling or whatever else the media says about this stuff.
• 43:36
  Follow along with us and you'll learn a lot and you'll probably do very,
• 43:39
  very well in prediction markets.
• 43:41
  I have for over a decade and I would love for you to join me.
• 43:43
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go.
• 43:45
  Sign up,
• 43:46
  become a premium subscriber,
• 43:47
  and ride this wave with us until election day.
• 43:50
  We'll see you soon.