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Ryan Bridge: Will the US midterms matter more to Kiwis than our own election? · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

0:00
Speaker 1: Odds are on that we will get another hike to
0:03
Speaker 1: the OCR tomorrow. That'll take us to 3%. Markets are
0:07
Speaker 1: pricing a chance of that happening at about 85%, so
0:10
Speaker 1: she's looking quite likely. Not great timing for a coalition
0:13
Speaker 1: government trying to get elected when the cost of living
0:15
Speaker 1: is the number one issue. But that's obviously not something
0:19
Speaker 1: the Reserve Bank should or would care about. Their job
0:21
Speaker 1: is inflation, and all signs point north on that front
0:24
Speaker 1: at the moment. It's expected to be higher than the
0:27
Speaker 1: bank predicted in September when their last update came out.
0:30
Speaker 2: The strength of the Kiwi dollar is now lower.
0:32
Speaker 1: We've got a weaker Kiwi compared to our trading partners,
0:35
Speaker 1: which means that things in New Zealand dollars cost more
0:38
Speaker 1: to buy from overseas. Throw into the mix the fact
0:41
Speaker 1: that oil is also higher and that Trump is planning
0:44
Speaker 1: to restart bombing in Iran post midterms. And you can
0:47
Speaker 1: see why the pundits are picking another hike. 3% is
0:51
Speaker 1: still roughly neutral. So you could argue that if they
0:55
Speaker 1: do hike, The bank is being cautious without clubbing the
0:58
Speaker 1: economic recovery in the back of the neck right when
1:01
Speaker 1: it's kicking into gear. It's yet another reminder that the
1:05
Speaker 1: outcome of the US midterms.
1:07
Speaker 2: Are weirdly, probably, or at least possibly
1:11
Speaker 1: More important to New Zealand voters' wallets than the outcome
1:14
Speaker 1: of the one happening here at home.