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Defence deal derailed as PNG snubs Albanese · The Front

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  Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
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  Speaker 1: It's Thursday September eighteen, twenty twenty five. Treasurer Jim Chalmers
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  Speaker 1: says any twenty thirty five emission reductions target the government
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  Speaker 1: commits to will be economically responsible. Business big wig say
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  Speaker 1: VEIL support a target of more than sixty percent on
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  Speaker 1: certain conditions. Kevin Rudd says China is driving disruption in
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  Speaker 1: the Indo Pacific, but the former PM whose Australia's ambassador
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  Speaker 1: in Washington, DC, says Beijing's ambitions can be thwarted if
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  Speaker 1: Australia and the US work closely together. Those stories alive
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  Speaker 1: right now at the Australian dot Com dot AU. Australia
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  Speaker 1: and Papua New Guinea have agreed to sign a sweeping
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  Speaker 1: mutual defense treaty, but it could all be scuttled by China.
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  Speaker 1: There were awkward scenes in Port Moresby as the planned
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  Speaker 1: signing sarah He fizzled out, the second time Albanese has
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  Speaker 1: been snubbed by a Pacific partner this month. Today, what
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  Speaker 1: the deal would mean and why it could all go
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  Speaker 1: badly wrong. It's a baking hot sunrise in Papua New Guinea.
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  Speaker 1: The dry season is coming to a close and it's
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  Speaker 1: already twenty five degrees in the shade. As the first
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  Speaker 1: light creeps over Port Moresby's harbor, Papua New Guinea's flag
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  Speaker 1: is raised with full military ceremony. As the Australian's reporter
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  Speaker 1: Ben Packham captures video and audio for.
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  Speaker 2: US two F thirty five, Australian F thirty five pierced
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  Speaker 2: the air and did a lap of this hill.
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  Speaker 3: And it seemed to me to be as it's a
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  Speaker 3: not so subtle reminder of.
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  Speaker 2: Australia's military power.
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  Speaker 3: On the eve of this signing, no doubt China will
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  Speaker 3: be seeking to make similar suggestions to Papena Guinea in
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  Speaker 3: coming days.
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  Speaker 1: There's absolutely nothing subtle about the power games going on here.
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  Speaker 1: China and Australia plus our allies are in a deadly
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  Speaker 1: serious competition to win over Pacific nations with whatever we've got.
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  Speaker 1: In China's case, it's things like police support for overwhelmed
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  Speaker 1: local forces in places like the Solomon's or huge amounts
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  Speaker 1: of cash for sports stadiums. Australia's offering the protection of
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  Speaker 1: our defense forces and by extension Americas plus in the
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  Speaker 1: case of P and G, a rugby league team. But
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  Speaker 1: as the week of celebrations built up to Wednesday's plans signing,
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  Speaker 1: it all went skew. It first, there were delays and
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  Speaker 1: confusion about weather Pang's cabinet had approved the deal. Then
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  Speaker 1: when it was finally announced, it wasn't a treaty at
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  Speaker 1: all yet for now, it's something called a joint communicate.
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  Speaker 1: Ben This seems like a big deal, is it?
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  Speaker 3: Well, it's a big deal. How things have gone awry?
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  Speaker 3: You know this agreement. The Albanezi government's been promoting this
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  Speaker 3: agreement as a very big deal for Australia and for
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  Speaker 3: Papua New Guinea. They've talked it up Richard Marles as
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  Speaker 3: it's profound and so forth. They've signed a communicate to
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  Speaker 3: continue to progress the agreement, but not the treaty itself.
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  Speaker 4: Implortally, as Prime Minister Murrapei has said, this was initiated
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  Speaker 4: by Papara New Guinea. It was a request to Australia
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  Speaker 4: and it was a request which we readily agree to.
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  Speaker 1: Anthony Aberanezi said again and again in his press corps
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  Speaker 1: conference that this was something that P and G asked
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  Speaker 1: for what's the subtext there.
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  Speaker 3: We often see this in the Pacific, you know, with
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  Speaker 3: ad agreements and so forth. We don't want to look
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  Speaker 3: like the big colonial power coming in and throwing our
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  Speaker 3: weight around. It's quite possible that it arose out of
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  Speaker 3: a conversation between the two, but it's very clear that
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  Speaker 3: this is an agreement that Australia really wants. It wants
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  Speaker 3: to have a capital a alliance with puppiny Guinea. And
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  Speaker 3: it's also clear that there are mixed feelings in P
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  Speaker 3: and G about the extent of this agreement.
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  Speaker 1: As Prime Minister, I got to slip every night worrying
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  Speaker 1: if someone invades my country, what is my defense for
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  Speaker 1: my country? The elephant in the room, though, of course,
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  Speaker 1: Ben is China. The Prime Minister of P and G,
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  Speaker 1: said that his Defense minister was now going to go
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  Speaker 1: on a road show and talk to all P and
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  Speaker 1: g's valued partners about this deal. First off will be Beijing.
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  Speaker 1: Is that where this deal is going to potentially get scuttled.
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  Speaker 3: Well, look, you can imagine what the Chinese are going
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  Speaker 3: to say when PNG Defense Minister Billy Joseph flies into Beijing.
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  Speaker 3: I'm sure they will remind him of China's formidable military power,
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  Speaker 3: show him some footage of the recent Victory Day parade
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  Speaker 3: perhaps and perhaps suggests that Papua New Guinea would not
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  Speaker 3: like to be on the wrong side of that military power.
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  Speaker 1: Part of the deal would mean Australia's ability to recruit
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  Speaker 1: new military personnel within PNG.
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  Speaker 3: That's in the interests of both countries. Australia really needs
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  Speaker 3: to fill some very deep shortages in its military and
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  Speaker 3: PNG could earn a lot of feign currency out of this.
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  Speaker 3: It provides some great opportunities. Now, look, the big kind
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  Speaker 3: of issue with this treaty is the obligation that it
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  Speaker 3: would put both countries under to meet the common threat
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  Speaker 3: if there was an attack on either country. Now, Australia
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  Speaker 3: has an alliance with the US and New Zealand which
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  Speaker 3: uses effectively those words. This proposed treaty is based on
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  Speaker 3: the ANSAs alliance. Now it would elevate the relationship with
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  Speaker 3: p and G to an absolute alliance on a par
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  Speaker 3: with which we have with the US in New Zealand.
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  Speaker 3: Now that's great for US because P and G its
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  Speaker 3: geography effectively would give us the ability to defend our
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  Speaker 3: northern approaches much more effectively. Now, in the event of
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  Speaker 3: a war, you know, this would probably happen anyway, but
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  Speaker 3: we wouldn't be stopping to ask permission probably if someone
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  Speaker 3: was coming our way. But it's this concept of forward defense.
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  Speaker 3: The treaty term would obligate P and G to effectively
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  Speaker 3: fight on Australia's side if there was a war. Now,
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  Speaker 3: what's the most likely major conflict in the region. It's
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  Speaker 3: a conflict with China over Taiwan. Now, Australia would be
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  Speaker 3: very reluctant to get into such a war, of course,
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  Speaker 3: but we have an alliance with the United States and
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  Speaker 3: it's potentially a domino effect that could come and affect
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  Speaker 3: Papa New Guinea. Now I do think that this is
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  Speaker 3: dawning people here now that they could find themselves in
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  Speaker 3: a conflict with the world's number two military power and
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  Speaker 3: potentially the number one military power in this region.
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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Marpe said that he lay awake at night
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  Speaker 1: worrying that P and G didn't have the capability to
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  Speaker 1: defend itself. So is Australia taking all the risky then?
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  Speaker 3: Look, it would certainly be a big commitment by Australia
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  Speaker 3: because it would involve US having to spend billions of
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  Speaker 3: dollars lifting up P and g's defense force to better
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  Speaker 3: standard discipline in the ranks here is not great. The
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  Speaker 3: equipment isn't that great, and so you know, it would
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  Speaker 3: be a serious commitment by us. But in terms of sovereignty,
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  Speaker 3: it's a big commitment by P and G when it
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  Speaker 3: has a friend to all, enemy to none foreign policy,
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  Speaker 3: and so you know, all of a sudden it would
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  Speaker 3: be shackled to Australia's geopolitical realities. And we all know
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  Speaker 3: that while we try and get along very well with China,
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  Speaker 3: especially in an economic sense, and the Albanizi government has
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  Speaker 3: stabilized relations that if there were a military conflict, that
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  Speaker 3: would be the likely adversary.
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  Speaker 1: Coming up. So is it going to come off? Then
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  Speaker 1: we've been here before. Very recently, there was talk of
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  Speaker 1: something very similar with Vanuatu in recent days. What happened
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  Speaker 1: to that, well.
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  Speaker 3: The Vaniuatu Agreement was far less onerous kind of agreement.
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  Speaker 3: The Vanuatu Agreement would not have been an alliance. It
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  Speaker 3: would just be a sort of security agreement that was
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  Speaker 3: designed to give Australia the right to prevent greater Chinese
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  Speaker 3: influence over there, but at the last minute Anthony Albanizi
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  Speaker 3: went over there Tuesday of last week, so just eight
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  Speaker 3: days ago we were already to sign, but they knew
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  Speaker 3: in a few days before that Vanuatu was getting cold feet,
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  Speaker 3: and as it turned out, it was no deal. It
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  Speaker 3: was highly embarrassed for Australia and for the PM. And
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  Speaker 3: now we see basically a week later this happening again,
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  Speaker 3: but on an even greater scale.
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  Speaker 1: Another very sensitive relationship for Australia in the Pacific is
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  Speaker 1: of course, the Solomon Islands ben Where is that relationship
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  Speaker 1: at now, particularly in terms of China.
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  Speaker 3: On Tuesday in Port Moresby we saw Anthony Albanezi placed
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  Speaker 3: next to the Solomon's Prime Minister, Jeremiah Minelle at a
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  Speaker 3: PNG Independence Day flag raising ceremony. And a few years
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  Speaker 3: ago we saw obviously the signing of very controversial security
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  Speaker 3: agreement between Solomon Islands and China under the Sogovaro government there.
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  Speaker 3: That's been continued under the Manele government and that does
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  Speaker 3: present some issues for Australia there. We've reported at The
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  Speaker 3: Australian that the Chinese police that are based in Pontiara
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  Speaker 3: have begun a program of fingerprinting local solomon Islanders and
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  Speaker 3: getting them to sign or fiel our household registration cards
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  Speaker 3: and so forth in a sort of male era community
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  Speaker 3: policing program which has been rolled out completely publicly with
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  Speaker 3: no sort of thought to that people could be slightly
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  Speaker 3: concerned about giving out their bio data and household information
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  Speaker 3: to the Chinese government. And I think that what's happened
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  Speaker 3: in Solomon's is really a lesson in what can happen
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  Speaker 3: in this region when China really gets its claws into you.
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  Speaker 1: So do you think this PNG deal is actually going
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  Speaker 1: to turn into a treaty?
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  Speaker 3: I really do think that perhaps we have moved a
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  Speaker 3: bit quickly here. I think the Australian government should really
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  Speaker 3: have waited for Marapa to get his ducks in a
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  Speaker 3: row before we came over saying, hey, we're going to
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  Speaker 3: be signing this thing on Wednesday.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think strategically the Albanezi administration has thought we're here,
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  Speaker 1: we have him, you know, we can get in front
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  Speaker 1: of some cameras today potentially lock this down.
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  Speaker 2: Yes.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely, they wanted to combine it with a visit with
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  Speaker 3: a big occasion in p Andng. You know something I
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  Speaker 3: think Australia did not consider, and maybe even Marape didn't consider.
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  Speaker 3: Is P and G is celebrating its fiftieth anniversary of
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  Speaker 3: independence from Australia and now they're facing an agreement which
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  Speaker 3: is basically going to handcuff them to Australia in the
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  Speaker 3: event of a conflict. And so, you know, somewhat ironic,
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  Speaker 3: I think, and maybe that is something that's feeding into
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  Speaker 3: the considerations in the Cabinet and later in the Parliament.
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  Speaker 1: Ben Packham is The Australian's Foreign Affairs and Defense correspondent.
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  Speaker 1: You can check out all his reporting right now at
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  Speaker 1: the Australian dot com dot au