Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Oscars Betting Preview with guest Michael Lasker

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Oscars Betting Preview with guest Michael Lasker · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: We are part of the Action Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Today is maybe my top five favorite episode of the year.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Definitely my favorite episode of the year in which football
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: is not discussed. With one of our favorite annual guests,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I got no time to waste.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: I'm going to say hello to.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: My co host, my companion, my campadre professional better Simon
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Hunter Eero soymon.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Hello, Chad brother.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: You know how much I love the Oscars. I know
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: you are heavily invested in the Oscars. This might be
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: the only podcast all year that my lovely, lovely wife
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: is going to listen to. Our guest today is such
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: a superstar on this podcast we get requests for him
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: to come back. I can't wait to introduce him, but first,
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  Speaker 1: as a reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by
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• 2:16
  Speaker 2: All Right, I teased it, I teased it. Sunday Night
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: is the ninety.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Sixth presentation of the Academy Awards.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: As we do every year.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: At this time, we welcome onto our show a true
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Hollywood insider, a top manager at Mosaic in Los Angeles,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: a man named one of the forty most powerful people
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: in comedy by the Hollywood Reporter. Most importantly a true
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Oscars savant friend of the podcast, mister Michael Lasker, What
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: is going on? Brother?
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: That's as always an incredibly kind introduction. And I love
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: the You're naming a list I was on from like
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: seven years ago. Darn any new lists for me to
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: be on.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Once you're on a list, you get on the wall,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: it's in your obituary, you put it on your jackstone,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: you highlighted in Wikipedia, whatever it takes.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: Look, you guys know how much I love this podcast
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: and I always love you know. I obviously met you
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: years ago through Isabelle Gomez.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: You know she is by the way we think out
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: how are we going to drop is to drop it fast?
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: We don't drop it fast, doesn't get dropped. No, I
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: love coming on here, and to be very honest, and
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: I'm simon, I'm looking at you. The thing. The only
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: thing about this podcast that I feel bad about when
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: you guys have me back on, is I feel bad
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: that the Oscar betting odds, you know, arena is not
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: quite as malleable as some of the sports you guys
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: bet on. You know, And we'll get to all those
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: reasons why. But you know what I mean, It's like
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: when you guys are betting on the Super Bowl, even
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: though you guys obviously are experts and have a sense
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: of bouthing might go. Anything can happen, you know, but
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: you know with this it's like, first of all, they've
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: already tabulated the votes, but also because of all the
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: precursor awards in Hollywood, there are definitely always trends. And
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: this year, which we talked about briefly before you guys
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: started recording, this is one of the you know, this
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: year's hearkening back to you know, yesteryear, you know, when
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: you had these dominant films like Schindler's Lists and Dancing
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: with Wolves and Amedeis Out of Africa where there's gonna
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: be a movie. I mean, obviously we'll get to it,
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: but Oppenheimer is going to do very well on Sunday,
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: so it takes some of the teeth out of the
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: betting lines, I assume. But you guys will explain that.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Well, yes, and no, I don't get the Appenheimer love.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I've now watched it twice. I've spent seven hours of
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: my life watching that movie trying to figure out why
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: it's getting on.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: Well, it's only a three hour long movie chat, so
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: what were you doing that other hour?
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: Just oh well, the second time I was streaming it
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: and I had to pause, so sure, so you know,
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: I'm counting the hour that I had to step away.
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: It's sure of the time that I spent watching it. Listen.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: I know Simon has a lot of thoughts on this,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: and Simon who is always playing sort of the smart
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: psychological angle. We are going to get into it, but
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: first I want to you know, we touted Laskar as
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: being able to list the winner and nominee for every
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: major Oscar category going back decades, So, oh boy, is
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: this is this still true?
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: Michael?
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: It can be. It depends on the category, right, It
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: depends on the year. If you give me heart about
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: the nineties, I could just go all day.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Best actor category for the film year two thousand and one.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Two thousand and two Academy Awards Best Actor nominees were.
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: Okay for two thousand and one and one. Thing I
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: want to be clear to your listeners is that when
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: you say, like, who won the Oscar in two thousand
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: and one, it's always for the release year of the movie.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: Whereas Data Academy Awards aired in two thousand and two,
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: so okay in.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Two thousand releast year of two thousand and one year
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: two thousand and two correct.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: So in two thousand and one, Downlow Washington one Best
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: Actor for Training Day. The other nominees were And this
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: was his second Oscar. He'd won his first Oscar in
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: nineteen eighty nine for Glory for Best Supporting Actor, which
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: was his second OSCAR nomination. He was nominated for crist
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: Freedom in eighty seven for Best Supporting Actor. It's also
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: nominated in ninety two for Malcolm X. And he's been
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: nominated since Training Day. And he was up against Tom
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: Wilkinson for In the Bedroom, and he was up against
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: Sean Penn for I Am Sam, And he was up
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: against Will Smith for Ali and the fifth nominee in
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: two thousand and one, So we had sorry Sean, Ben
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Will Smith, Downlow Washington, Tom Wilkinson and the fifth nominee.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: Oh I know this. It's like, oh, I'm sorry, I'm sorry.
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: Of course, Russell Crowe for Beautiful Mind. And Russell Crowe
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: had been nominated for three Oscars in a row. He
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: was nominated ninety nine for The Insider, and then he
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: wins the next year for Gladiator, and then he's nominated
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: again for Beautiful Mind and be Aleful Mind wins Best
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: Picture that year. Ron Howard finally wins his Oscar. Jennifer
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: Connelly wins Supporting Actress, Beautiful Mind and Supporting Actor which
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: Jim Broadbent for a movie called Iris. Adapted screenplay was
• 7:17
  Speaker 3: a Beautiful Mind for Keiva Goldsman. Original screenplay was Osford
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: Park for Julian Fellows. Yeah, we give to get up
• 7:25
  Speaker 3: earlier in the morning than this.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: You're now you're just showing off. I'm sorry, and that's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: totally fine. I loved the movie Gosford was Gosford Park
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: that Yeah. I loved it so much that I spent
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: a year researching books that I might be able to
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: write about that era of London, so I could just
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: go and spend a year in London researching, like, you know,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: people who were tuxedos and and had upstairs down there's lives.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: I love that. I know. It's a great movie. I mean,
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: Robert Aldman directed it. It was kind of his swan
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: song because he died. He was nominated. People kind of
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: thought he might win, but Ron Howard was sort of
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: do and all of them actually never won an Oscar,
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: and he died a couple of years later. He might
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: have even died like the next year, but that was
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: his last kind of considered a great movie. That's a
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: great movie. And of course that movie Julian Fellows wrote it.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: And then that's that's why you have Downton Abbey. Yeah,
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: because then later that's why he does that show.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, which is why I ended up not doing the book,
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: because he stole Downton Abbey And so that's.
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: A huge Are you going to sue Julian Felops?
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: Probably, I'm probably gonna have to assume.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: All right, Simon, we're going to talk about Oppenheimer's dominance,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: and Michael just alluded to that. Look, it's the leading
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: contender for Best Picture, Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: If you would bet one hundred dollars on a six
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: leg parlay for those five categories plus score would win
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: less than thirty dollars if they all hit. Tell me
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: right now, Simon, as the wise guy, as the professional,
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: as the guy who always finds a way to play
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: opposite and come out ahead, what are you thinking about
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: making plays on for the Oscars.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll just strow off at the top by saying
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: that this isn't all set in stone. Last year at
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: this point when we had on you know and did
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: this show, I believe Brenda Fraser was minus one thirty
• 9:35
  Speaker 4: to win Best Actor for the Whale, And we said
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: on the show it was way too low and that
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: that was like a smash spot and that this was
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: all set up, that it wasn't even that great of
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: a movie. But he was great in the part. And
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: Hollywood not that they felt like they owed it to him,
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: but he had done so much, he had been through
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: so much, it kind of felt like the hype was
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: building behind it. So there is sometimes value on the Oscars.
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: The issue is getting money down, Chad. That's the joke here.
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: It's like most books, the max still take is fifty two,
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: one hundred dollars on any of these bets. So for me,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: why would I want to bet one hundred bucks on
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: you know, Oppenheimer to win Best Picture, to win you know,
• 10:15
  Speaker 4: two dollars or three dollars or five dollars. It's just
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: it's not worth it. Though, with Chad sayings, a lot
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: of what people are gonna do, which is they're gonna
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: parlay the lice together. And that's scary to me, Chad,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: that there's always one or two upsets, right, There's always
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: something that happens just because these these people feel, you know,
• 10:33
  Speaker 4: once in the room voting, it's like, are they just
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: going to keep voting for the same type of people
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: in the same movie to win six seven Oscars. It's
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: it's unlikely, Chad.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: So this year, I think, I mean, Simon, it has
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: been unlikely. As of recent these sort of dominant historical
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: movies have not been around as much. And we've had
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: a lot of movies recently where like a movie won
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: like two Oscars and one Best Picture, you know, or
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: three Oscars like Coda, which one Best Picture won three Oscars,
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: Adapted Screenplay, Picture and Supporting Actor. Argo famously in twenty
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: twelve also only won three Oscars Supporting Actor, sorry now
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: sport actres, excuse me, Adapted Screenplay, Picture and Editing. And
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: so it does happen where it's more spread around. But
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: you know, even last year, everything everywhere, all once which
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: our clients made was not in that historical epic you know,
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: model and won seven Oscars. I mean that movie came
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: very close. It wasn't technically up for Best Actor, but
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: you could argue because there only been three movies in
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: the history that have swept the Big Five, which means
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: you win Picture director, one of the screenplay awards, and
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: then both lead actor and actress. And those three movies
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: are DApp In One Night in nineteen thirty four, The
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: Cuckoo's Nests and seventy five and Signed the Lambs in
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: ninety one. But like last year, I mean everything everywhere
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: one picture Director, original screenplay, lead actress, supporting actress, and
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: supporting actress. So in a weird way, it's kind of
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: the closest to movies come to like a modern sweep.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: But again it was nominated for Best Actor. The Abuneimer
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: train cannot be stopped at this point. I mean, looking
• 12:06
  Speaker 3: at that Barlay, you know, the only one that I'd say,
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: there's still a little bit of like will it happen
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: as Killian Murphy? But what's interesting and not to bore
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: your listeners, but I think what's also happened, unfortunately, is
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: that post COVID, a lot of the studios are still
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: hedging their bets on how they release more adult driven movies.
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: So I loved The Holdovers, and I loved Oppenheimer too,
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: but I loved The Holdovers. And what Focus did was
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: they put it out in a small release in October,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: started to widen it in November. It was actually doing
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: really well, making really good money on not that many screens,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: and then boom, they took it out. They took it
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: out of most theaters, and they debuted on Peacock on
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: like December twenty ninth, which is of course with Universal
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: Slash Focus that's their streamer that they owned. So they
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: made a decision, we'll make more money going onto vod
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: and we want to get Peacock subscribers. But to me,
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: The Holdovers was a classic adult actually kind of a
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: co viewing movie because you could kind of take the
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: family do you could probably take ten and up to
• 13:05
  Speaker 3: that movie. It wasn't that dirty. And I think that
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: movie had just been platformed at Thanksgiving and gone wide
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: at Christmas and then it gets all the Oscar nominations
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: that it got in January. Those are movies that could
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: play for like eight, nine, ten, you know, twelve weeks
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: and they quietly make seventy eighty million bucks. Had that
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: happened Giamatti, he'd just be more in the conversation. And
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: I think he still has a chance, and people love
• 13:28
  Speaker 3: him and people do feel it's so funny this whole narrative,
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: which I remember vividly. People are really talking about how
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: he was snubbed for Sideways because he was the only
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: person in Sideways of kind of the main group that
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: didn't get nominated. I mean, Sandra O wasn't nominated, but
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: Virginia Madson, Thomas Aden Church, Alexander Payne, and Jim Taylor
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: won the Oscar for adapting it. It was nominated for
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Best Picture. He got nominated a year later for Cinderella Man,
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: which was a total like makeup nomination because people felt
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: bad he had been stubbed. So he has a shot.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: But I think the thing about Oppenheimer is that my
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: philosophy on it is that if you're voting for Obenheimer
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: for these six, seven, eight, nine categories and you're thinking
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: about the totality of the movie, there's no way you
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: can come out of it not thinking that Killian Murphy
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: held it all together because he did, you know. And
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: by the way, there's a lot of people who like
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: think this is like the fifth best Emily Blunt performance.
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: People love Emily Blunt, but like she got nominated was
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: a really weak category this year, but like no one
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: thinks she's gonna win now, of course, Danny Junior and
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: I know, I think you mentioned earlier Simon you maybe
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: have a bet On Gospling, which you'll get to. But
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, Danny Junior is the law of the night.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: I mean this is more than just a performance. I
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: mean this is a coronation of you know, your the
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: original NEPO. Baby. We loved you all the way back
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: in ninety two. We nominated you for the first time
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: for Chaplain for Best Actor, nominated again in two thousand
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: and eight for Tropic Thunder for Supporting Actor. But I
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: mean this guy's story coming out of I mean, the
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: guy didn't just go to prison. He went to real prison,
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. I mean, all these actors,
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: even Danny Masterson. Not to get darker, He's already been
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: transferred out of the hardcore prison to a more medium prison.
• 15:02
  Speaker 3: I don't know enough details about where they sent him,
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: but they already said we sent you somewhere too crazy.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: Right Downy Junior went to the crazy prison and so
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: his rehabilitation literally and figuratively, it's just been too good
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: and he was amazing in the movie, and so he's
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: going to win. You know, there's no stopping that. Even
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: though Gossling I thought was incredible, it was a great
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: category across the board.
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: So Oppenheimer is interesting minus thirty three hundred to win
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Best Picture. The next shortest odds Poor Things sixteen to one,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: then Barbie twenty to one. Oppenheimer to me a good
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: biopic in a genre that is often examined. Barbie completely
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: genre bending, More Things completely genre bending, both great movies. Michael,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: I don't know why everyone is so in love with Oppenheimer,
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Like there is it's all great, but it's not like
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: it's not epic. I'm not walking away from Oppenheimer with
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the feels. I'm not walking away from Oppenheimer feeling like
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I saw something I had never seen before. I'm walking
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: away from Oppenheimer feeling like, yeah, it's a good movie
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: about an important piece of history.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Listen, I think that, you know, there's people that agree
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: with that, there's people that were really blown away by it.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: What's a couple of interesting takeaways about this year in general?
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: And it all does go back to Christopher Nolan. So
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: in two thousand and eight, when The Dark Knight was
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: not nominated for Best Picture, but it got a lot
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: of Oscar on Nations and Heath Ledger won the Oscar
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: for Supporting Actor posthumously because he had already died. That
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: was the year that Tom Serrick, who's no longer alive,
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: who was the either the President Academy or one of
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: the main governors, he said, every time the Oscars air,
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: like the next week, they do these post morte, so
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: about what went right, how is the season? Blah blah blah.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: And in that post mortem at some point that spring
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: he said, we should go back to ten nominees. What
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: the use to do in the thirties. That was a
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: reaction to the fact that The Dark Knight, which was
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: this insanely popular, billion dollar grossing transcendent movie, wasn't nominated,
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: wasn't nominated for Best Pick. Right, So this year, in
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: a weird way, is the sort of culmination of those thoughts,
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: because look at like what we have. You've got Barbie
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: made a billion and a half dollars, which I agree,
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: I loved it, and total John Reventning and Greta did
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: an amazing job as Ad Margo. You've got Abeneimer, which
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: made nine ear and fifty million dollars in America, and
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: you've got stuff like Zone of Interest. I mean, you've
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: got the holdovers. I mean, you have a real the
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: only thing you don't have, which they've had at times,
• 17:45
  Speaker 3: you don't really have a kid's movie. They nominated Toy
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: Story three, They've not you know, stuff like that in
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: the past. My point though, is that this is a
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: culmination award for Christopher Nolan, and I think he is deserving.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: By the way, even if there's a split on Sunday,
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: he's director, and I don't think there will be a split.
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: There's been a lot of splits in recent years. I
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: don't think it's going to happen this time. But my
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: point is from two thousand and eight to now, it's
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: kind of this culmination of like, this guy's the modern Spielberg,
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: the modern Ridley Scott, the modern James Cameron. He transcended
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: movies a million times over all. His movies are huge
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: crowd pleasers, and he's just do And that's what happens
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: a lot with the Oscars is that it's not that
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: it's political per se. But people think about the narrative,
• 18:27
  Speaker 3: and I think Emma Stone was unbelievable and poort and forth.
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: I loved it. I loved it so much. I think
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: she should win. I think Lily gls Lily Gladstone probably
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: will win. And you've got these competing narratives, and the
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: narrative of Emma is a little bit of like, she's
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: thirty four years old. She's the modern name Merle Streep.
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: She's been nominated four times now for acting. She's already
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: won an Oscar in twenty sixteen for law Land. She's
• 18:50
  Speaker 3: going to be back. It's a little bit of why
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: I thought, and I think I said on this podcast
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: last year the Cape Blanchett would not win. It's really
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: hard to win a third acting Oscar. She's not even fifty, right,
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: And it went to Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere. Whereas
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: with Lily Gladstone, who I think is amazing in that movie.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: But she's kind of a supporting part in that movie,
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: even though she hovers around the movie because of what
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: the movie's about. She's in the movie for like an
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: hour when you put it all together. But when you
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: look at Lily there's like a double whammy of we're
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: giving into the first Native American actors every won Oscar
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: and the entire movie is about the fact that we
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: have you know, whitewashed and wiped away from Tulsa by
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: the way that we've wiped away this history. People don't
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: even know about this. I didn't know about the David
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Grand book came out five years ago, and my good
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: friend David Hold, who's the Mary Oklahoma City who is
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: part of Sage. I mean, you basically had to be
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: a member of the Osage nation to know about this.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: And now obviously it's getting out there. So I think
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: with Lily it's like it's again it's this double thing
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: of like, she is amazing in the movie. She's certainly worthy,
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: but you're honoring not only the first person Native American
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: woman to do it and person, and but you're also
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: honoring the character. You're honoring the movie, the history that
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: has been wiped away. And she's been winning all the awards,
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: you know, so I don't know that one. I'm still
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: like a little undecided on what are the odds on
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: the Best Actress right now?
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: She's minus one sixty two Emma Stone plus one point
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: twenty Simon, let's talk about Downey and Gosling for a second,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: because to me, I walked out of Barbie and I
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: said to my wife Ryan Gosling should win an Oscar
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: for that performance. And I saw and now I've seen,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: as I said Oppenheimer twice, I know Downey is getting crowned.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: But why did you go so heavy on Gosling Simon.
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: Well, yeah, I think I'm crazy heavy, but it is
• 20:51
  Speaker 4: my my bigger positions just because was Robert Downey Junior
• 20:55
  Speaker 4: born for that role? I don't know, but I can
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: say that Goslin was warned to be kent. Like it
• 21:02
  Speaker 4: was just incredible, how perfect that lined up, and how
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: perfect he was as it.
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: Like it's just.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: Again, Barbie. That movie was not meant for someone like
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: me in any aspect, and they did not make that
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: movie in any way for someone like me that's growing
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: up that way I grown up or lived the way
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: I lived, and I enjoyed it, and I think most
• 21:21
  Speaker 4: people came away like seeing that, Like again, most guys
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: got drafted that movie with the opposite sex. And I
• 21:27
  Speaker 4: was not going and thinking at all this was going
• 21:29
  Speaker 4: to be an enjoyable experience and it was so perfectly
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: cast in every way. I just have a hard, hard
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: view of them being snubbed in all these different categories.
• 21:39
  Speaker 4: That's why I did make that bet. And Best Production
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: Design right now, Poor Things is minus two thirty, but
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: Barbie's plus one sixty. I like the value on Barbie
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: just because it's r for me to vision a billion
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: and a half dollars. You just said they made a
• 21:53
  Speaker 4: billion and a half dollars. I can't believe the Osha is
• 21:56
  Speaker 4: gonna snub them in a lot of these.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: Awards, so it's really interesting they're gonna win.
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: No, But like you said, Robert Danny Junior, it's the history,
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: It's what he's been through up to this point, including
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: Iron Man, all of it. So I do agree with him.
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: It's it's probably a dumb bet. I just I bet
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: it because it felt like Ryan was born for that
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: role as Ken.
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: I think you're on is something. You know, What's happened
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: the last couple of years there have been movies getting
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: a lot of nominations that have gotten zero wins, like
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: Banshe's have been a Sharon last year got nine nomination
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: zero wins. And what's interesting is an adapted screenplay. Right,
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: So the prohibited favorite right now is American Fiction, which
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: is a good movie written by this guy Court Jefferson,
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: adapted a book. And this has been a controversy in
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Hollywood because the Academy has a special screenwriting committee where
• 22:43
  Speaker 3: they have to decide is Barbie an adapted screenplay or
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: is it original? And you know, they old We decided
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: it was adapted because there's a character. Now, some people say,
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: but there's not really a character. It's not adapting, Homer Simpson,
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean, It's it's a doll. But
• 22:58
  Speaker 3: I think the Academy decided that because there was iconography.
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: They felt like there was a text of sorts for
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: Greta and Noah bomb Back to play with, so they
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: deemed it adapted. So but part of me kind of
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: thinks like that might be where Barbie gets honored, you
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: know what I mean, Like Americas has been winning the
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: precursor screenplay you know awards and so forth, but this
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: is the one moment, it's the only Oscar Well gret
• 23:21
  Speaker 3: nominated technically for Best you know Picture, because she's a
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: producer of the movie. Barbie's not gonna win Best Picture,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: but she could win an Oscar if they give her
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: adapted screenplay. So I think you're right. I think Barbie
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: is beloved.
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: The ructions thing is tricky because it's like sometimes they
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: think about like did you bring a world to life
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: that we knew or did you create your own world?
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: And I think with Barbie, it's like, yeah, they made
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: the Barbie dream House, but the Barbie dream House existed, right,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: whereas like with poor Things, they kind of like invented,
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: not they didn't invent like old time London. But there's
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: there's this sense in that movie of like this kind
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: of all kind of came from our head a little bit.
• 23:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, the productions I was incredible. Actual design an
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: Appeneimer was incredible. I mean it's a tough category. Obbeneimer
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: is gonna is gonna clean up. It might win categories
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: people don't even think it is. I mean, sound design
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: is interesting because people think Gone of Interest is gonna
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: win because the sound design was so specific of how
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: they layered in some of the outside sound of what
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: was going on at Auschwitz. But the sound design, you know,
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: Guild had their awards on Sunday and they gave it
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: to Obeneimer. And a granted Zonovent wasn't. I don't think
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: it was eligible because it was not an American film
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: or something, so it wasn't even in the in the nominations.
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: But Abeneimer is gonna do very well. Uh seven at
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: a minimum, maybe like nine for what they.
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: The answer Chad though, why, Like, I know you kind
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: of went over it, but I know the acting was great.
• 24:43
  Speaker 4: But why is it such a slam dunk? Is it
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: all because of Killian's history of Pecky Blinders and all
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: the movies he's done. Is it just history because of
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: you know, christ Rah and Nola are great director. Is
• 24:52
  Speaker 4: it all just because of their past? Not so much
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: this movie itself.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like they're just giving these guys an
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: award even though it's close to the did Anything.
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot of people in the
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: business that just absolutely loved the film and felt like
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: it was, you know, an astonishing achievement, you know, down
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: to everything, the editing, the photography, the original score. I'd
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: see your point in that, Like, I don't know, if
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: it's a movie I'm going to watch ten more times
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: in my life, you know what I mean. But it's
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: an unbelievably well made film, and like I was saying earlier,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: I think just Nolan's time is here, you know, I
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: mean He's going to win, Like I mean, he's I mean,
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: it'll be fascinating to like watch his face on Sunday
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: when they call his name, because he knows his name
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: is getting called. I think, you know, look, you know,
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: part of it is just it is all momentum and frankly,
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: like people expected the movie to be good, you know
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: what's interesting, And I know this has been talked about
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: a lot, but partially what started the whole thing was
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: how well it did against Barbie that opening weekend, because
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: people assumed it would do fine. The fact that it
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: essentially held its own and still made like eighty five
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: million bucks on a three hour, you know, adult film.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: It just sent this signal of like we're kind of
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: here to stay, and was also interesting. I haven't seen
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: the New Dune yet, which here is great, but like
• 26:08
  Speaker 3: a lot of people thought, because the first Dune won
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: like seven Oscars, it won all these technical awards, a
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: lot of people thought that that could really contend for
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: the new one. And people are really raving about Denis
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Villeneuve's directing, but that got pushed to March because of
• 26:22
  Speaker 3: the strike, so everything kind of lined up for Christopher
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Nolan here. So I mean, all I can really say
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: is like people in the business love the movie, and
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: there's there's a totality to it, partially because of all
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: the technical stuff. And sometimes that's what happens. I mean,
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: I remember when I was in college, I was like
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: obsessed with the movie Traffic, which lost Picture to Gladiator,
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: which obviously Gladiators amazing, but Traffic that night wins Director
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: for Soderberg, supporting Actor for Del Toro, editing for Steven Marioni,
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: and Adapted Screenplay for Stephen Gagan. These are all like
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: big precursor awards. But Gladiator, I think because it was
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: such a massive spectacle it was picking up some more
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: technical awards. It wins Best Picture. So sometimes I think
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: you have all you know, there's like nineteen you know, subcommittees,
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: you know of the of the oscars, and you have
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: the editors and the sound designers and the cinematographers, and
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: I think, you know, they're not that big. The biggest
• 27:14
  Speaker 3: branch obviously the branches. The biggest branch is the actors.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: But the acting is amazing Oppenheimer. So I think it's
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I think it's a shoeing. At this point, I wish
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: I had a better answer for you beyond that it's
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: just a movie that people really have. They want to
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: coordinate it, you know.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Let me do an avery here, and then I have
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: a point I want to make. Simon, Okay, can you
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: name the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States?
• 27:41
  Speaker 4: Game Time?
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: That's right, It's game Time. I love game Time for
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: two reasons. First, they still sponsored this show. Second, actually
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: use game Time all the time. They have amazing last
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: minute deals, including pro and college games. Speaking of which,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: I'm opening the game Time app right now from my
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: house here in Connecticut. Look at this. I can get
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: in to see the New York Knickerbockers at Madison Square
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: Garden tonight for less than one hundred dollars.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: No matter where you live, download the game Time app.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: Get out have some fun this week. You deserve it.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: You can redeem code favorites for twenty dollars off first purchase.
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: Terms apply again. Just download the game Time app and
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: you use code Favorites for twenty dollars off your first
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: purchased last minute tickets. Lowest prices, guaranteed traffic never watched again.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Gladiator watched eighteen times, Saving Saving Private Ryan watched a
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: thousand times. I think it lost to Shakespeare in Love
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: that year. Never watched it again.
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: That should be the barometer for how every voter is thinking.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Am I gonna watch Barbie again and again and again
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: over the course of my life?
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: Yes? Am I gonna watch Oppenheimer? No, I'm not.
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: And here's my point about sound editing. Oppenheimer should not
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: be nominated for sound editing, because I read this and
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. Christopher Nolan is such a
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: purist in a good or a bad way that the
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: way he records the sound, he does not try to
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: make it as clear as possible because he's recording it
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: on site and wants to use that natural sound. One
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: of the reasons I had to watch Oppenheimer again is
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: because I could barely understand the dialogue in the first
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: forty five minutes of the movie. So when they were
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: setting the foundation for the narrative and things that felt
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: important about communism or science or Oppenheimer's womanizing, I didn't
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: understand it because I couldn't understand what anybody was saying,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: so why would it be nominated for sound and why
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: should credit for sound?
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: Look, I think that here's the thing. You're absolutely right,
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: and he has gone on the record. What he has
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: said is that he wants his movies to feel like
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: real life. And in real life sometimes you don't hear
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: everything that you're hearing in a conversation when you're in
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: the middle of the ocean or whatever. I mean, it's
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: more about how they sort of like did the blast
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: and things like that. Look, it might, it might not
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: win that category. I mean, nothing is going to be
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: you know, completely perfect. But I hear you. You know,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: it's funny you talk about Gladiator and Shakespeare Love. I mean,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: that's what makes the Oscar's interesting is that you're getting
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: this time capsule what happened that year. And of course,
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: I mean like there's there's movies, certainly in the last
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: twenty five years that have won the Oscar for Best
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: Picture that you'll never think about again versus you know,
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: movies that you have watched a thousand times. You know,
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: one of the craziest years, of course, was ninety four
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: because you had full fiction Forst. Gump and Showshink Redemption, right,
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: so you basically have three modern day classics. Now Forrest
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: Gump wins Best Picture. But you know, and I love
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: Forrest Gump, you know, I mean, who doesn't love Forrest Gump?
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: But I think that, you know, the Academy has they
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: have these whims. This guy, Michael Schumann wrote a really
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: good book called Oscar Wars, and he talked a lot
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: about the ninety eight the ninety eight Awards when Harvey Weinstein,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: who's in jail now for the rest of his life
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: where he should be, waged this man assive battle to
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: get Shakespeare in Love the Oscar over Sam private Ryan,
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: and they just had all these tactics, like they basically
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: started a whisper campaign that they tried to get people
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: to believe that the movie was only good for thirty minutes.
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: Then basically the first sequence on the on the Beaches
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: of Normandy was the best movie ever made, and the
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: rest of it was kind of boring, you know. I mean,
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: they went out of their way to try to sort
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: of poison the Wells and that was a stunner. I remember,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Harrison Ford announced Best Picture of that year.
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: Obviously they don't design who's announcing nobody knows who's gonna win,
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: but they clearly thought, well, we think Shakespeare Love is
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: gonna win, and Harrison Ford's type with Steven Spielberg because
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: of you know, the Raiders of Lost Dark movies and
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: so forth, Indiana Jones and you know, this will be
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: like a nice, a nice little coronation, and then it
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: didn't happen. There's a lot of movies like that. I mean,
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: I certainly liked Green Book. I don't know if I'll
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: ever like see it again, that one best picture in
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen. Yeah, oh, you've never revisited green Book. You know,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: this is the most subjective art form and most of
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: you have to business ever, and that's kind of what
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: you're what you're speaking to. And by the way, I
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: now like if you said, well, can I take Gladiator
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: or Traffic to like a desert island? I would take
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: Gladiator because it's you know, I mean, it's just it's
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: the pomp and circumstance of it.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: We talked about best actor for a second Killian Murphy
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: minus fourteen hundred, Paul Giamatti plus nine hundred, Bradley Cooper,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: who we haven't talked about at all, but Maestro has
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: basically not been a conversation for any of these categories,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: even though it came out with so much sort of
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: pomp and circumstance, and people really believe even in Carrie Mulligan,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: like everyone's like Kerry Mulligan's going to win for back
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: that best Actress. She's now thirty three to one. But
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: the Killian Murphy story is great. Loved him in Peaky Blinders,
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: almost wanted him to be the Peaky Blinders guy in this.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: In this movie, I felt like he was like the
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: movie itself, so much of it is in black and white,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: and I felt like a lot of times it downplayed
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: his magnetism in this movie, which also I think is
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: a credit to him and sort of the way he
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: played it. But Andrew Scott, Oh yeah, your boys, all
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: of us strangers. How is he not nominated?
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: Because so this is what happened.
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: I saw the movie. I thought it was great. It's
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: a really beautiful film. He's amazing in it. He's an
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: incredible actor. I first saw him with the very first
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: time pre Fleabag. He played Moriority on the Bennetticummerbatch Sherlock
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: series for BBC, and he was amazing, and that led
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: to him being in James Bond and then the Bag
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: being the priest and on and on, and he's an
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: incredible actor. That was this weird thing where that movie
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: was like a festival movie and all the prognosticators, all
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: the podcasters, all the critics saw and they were like,
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: this thing is going to contend. But it was ultimately
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: a really, really small movie. And it's just for whatever reason.
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: I mean, it just did not gain any traction. And
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: you look at the movies that got nominated for the
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: ten slots, all of them had traction. This was an
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: incredible year for movies. I could argue there were about
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: fifteen movies that could have gotten those ten slots. And
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: now we're in Hollywood' worried this year will be a
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: very bad year for movies because there's less output because
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: of the strikes last year. So it's one of those movies.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: Like people in the business who saw it thought it
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: was great. People think he's brilliant, people love Paul mescal
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: who was nominated for Oscar last year. But yeah, it's
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: just the only answer is it was too small. It
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: was too small, and it was too quiet. And I
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: also think Frankly, a lot of people watched it at home.
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: And that is a movie where like you really need
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: to put your phone down, you really need to have
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: the lights out. It's not suggest that it's you know,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: seeing Dune and you got to see it with like
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: Dolby's round sound. But that movie is such a tone
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: poem of a film because you don't quite know what's happening, right,
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: and like is this reality? Is he dreaming? Wait? Now
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: he's seeing his parents? Oh, his parents are dead? And
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: I think that's a movie if you saw in the theater.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: A lot people feel this way about Past Lives, which
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: was nominated for a couple of Oscars but got some snubs.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: You got to see it in the theater and let
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: it like wash over you. I mean, that's a whole
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: nother podcast. On another debate, there's obviously, you know, a
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: substitute seeing a movie at home. I don't care if
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: like you're in pitch black darkness and you know there's
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: no electricity except your TV. It's just not the same
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: as going to a movie theater. It's just not the
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: same collective. It's always always better to do it, and
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: that goes back to Oppenheimer I mean, Obeneimer was an
• 35:33
  Speaker 3: event and the same way Barbie was an event. But
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: it's like, I mean, those numbers were insane, you know.
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: I mean they were still like two months in you
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: couldn't get to like a good IMAX screening. It's funny,
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: Chad that you talk about not being able to hear
• 35:46
  Speaker 3: the dialogue in Abenheimer because I went with a group
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: of people to Grauman's Chinese, which is, you know, on
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: some days, considered the best theater in LA because they
• 35:54
  Speaker 3: have all the premieres or it has all the history.
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: It's an incredible, beautiful theater. But this sounds like a
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: little tinny And there was a ton of stuff I
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: couldn't understand. And my wife was pregnant, we just had
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: our second kid, and she was just like, I mean
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: ten minutes and she's like I need to leave. And
• 36:11
  Speaker 3: she didn't. She stayed, but she just was like, I'm
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: not this is not for me today, you know.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: But that's the thing.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: I feel like, dude, I had the same exact conversation
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: with my wife. I'm like, did you can you She's
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: like she's like, I got no fucking idea what they're saying.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: Like we were with our seventeen year old. I'm like,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: do you know what's going on? He shut up, I
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: hear everything. Just stop talking.
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: I love the movie, I really did. But the minute
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: it ended, I said two things. I have to see
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: it again, and I have to go read the book.
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: And I started the book and the book is seven
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: in her pages and I got about ten pages in.
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: But I want to understand the book.
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not reading that book. You're not reading that book.
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: No one's reading that book. No one read that book
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: when he came out. That's why it took eighty five
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: years to me to make this movie.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: You know what's really weird is that? So? So what
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: happened was Nolan wanted to do a movie aout Oppenheimer.
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: Nolan was at the ranch of Chuck Rogan, who's a
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: big producer who produced the Batman movies with Christopher Nolan,
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: and he mentioned that he was researching Openemer, and Rovean says, oh,
• 37:16
  Speaker 3: I have the option on a book about Imer. Then
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: randomly he had gotten from James Woods. So if you
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: go on IMDb right now, James Woods, the actor who's
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: been nominated for two Oscars, who's not in Holiday anymore,
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: who's like considered like a crazed like right wing nut
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: like lunatic. He has a credit on Openheimer because he
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: had gotten the rights to that book at some point
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: and then I guess he gave it to Chuck Rogan,
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: and Chuck Rogan gave it. So if they win the
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: Oscar on Sunday, the three people that will accept the
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Oscar for Best Picture are Nolan, his wife, Emma Thomas,
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: and Chuck Rogan. Chuck Rogan was nominated in twenty fourteen
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: for American Hustle. That's his other Oscar nomination.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: Here's another trivia question for you.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this one's harder.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Okay, what picture winner released in the nineteen eighties has
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: the lowest Tomato meter score on Rotten Tomatoes The lowest
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: Tomato meter of the movies that won Best Picture in
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: the nineteen.
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Let's think about this. The Best Picture is nineteen eighty
• 38:21
  Speaker 3: in order in nineteen eighty is Ordinary People, and then
• 38:26
  Speaker 3: Chariots of Fire, and then Gandhi and then Terms of
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: Endearment and then amedeis Amideus and then Out of Africa
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: and then Platoon, last Emperor rain Man Driving Miss Daisy.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: So those are the movies that won ninety eight nine.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: All those are considered really good movies, And so that
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: has the lowest tomato meter, I mean, and.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: There's one that has the lowest by a mile, by a.
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: Mile, okay, And let me let's use some to doctive reasoning.
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's ordinary people, and I don't think
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: it's chariots a fire, correct, And it wouldn't be gondhy
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: Be in terms of endearment, and it wouldn't be on
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: the Dais, it wouldn't be Out of Africa. I mean,
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be I mean, I think it has to
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: be Rainman. I'm not beginning to answer yet, but it
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: has to be rain Man, because that's the most like
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: kind of populist of the movies. Simon is shaking his head,
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: and that's the most populoust of the movies where I
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: could see, like, that's not like when something like Out
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: of Africa comes out, everyone just like fawns over it
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: because of you know what it is. I'm gonna it's
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: it's either a platoon or rain Man, because maybe I
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: don't know because the violence, but I can tell that
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: I'm going to get this wrong, and I'm gonna go
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: with the rain Man.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: You're you're not only are you wrong, but like, actually,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: there are four movies that got eighty nine percent, that's
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: the highest. Platoon is one of them. And then one
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: movie got eighty eight percent.
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: It's Rainman.
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Okay, fair enough, Simon, what is your thinking?
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I feel like Simon is going to get this right,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: and he's going to get it right for the exact
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: right populist reason.
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: Honest, I've heard of all of them except the Miss
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: Daisy one, So that's all I was gonna go with
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: that one.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: Oh no, driving Miss Daisy got That was Morgan Freeman
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: and Jessica Tandy.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I believe.
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, she won Best as she won Best Actress. At
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: the time, she was the oldest person ever win an oscar.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: That got eighty five percent out of Africa sixty three percent.
• 40:28
  Speaker 3: That's so interesting because I mean, I've seen it. It's
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: a good movie. I mean that was That was Sidney
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: Pollock's coronation, right. Sidney Pollack had popped up in the sixties,
• 40:37
  Speaker 3: and then he made all these movies with Robert Redford
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: in the seventies, classic films like Three Days of the Contra.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: He made Tootsie. He also acted. By the way, I
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: just rewatched The Sopranos. I literally finished it on Saturday night.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: I just hadn't watched it in a long time, and
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: I forgot Sidney Pollack's In the final season of The
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: Sopranos when Johnny Sack is in the medical prison dying
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: of lung cancer, Sidney Pollock is an orderly who's there
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: in prison because he killed his wife and he was
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: a doctor, and he's giving Johnny Sack medical advice. And
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: you know Cidy Pollock, you know he's in is White Shot.
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: You know he's he's the guy who has the party
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: with the prostitute dies. I mean, Michael, he was an actor.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: What do you say, Michael Clayton. He's Michael Clayton. He
• 41:15
  Speaker 3: was an amazing actor, and he was somebody that all
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: these incredible filmmakers all loved and wanted to put their
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: movies now famously and I White Shot. He replaced Harvey
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: kaye Tell. Harvey kay Tell was in that role and
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: he walked off the set because he couldn't deal with
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: Kubrick's like shooting style, because Cooper would do like one
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: hundred takes so that they called it Sidney Paleck, and
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: I'm sure he spent five months to shoot two scenes,
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: you know, but he was he was brilliant.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: All right, let's recap here.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Oppenheimer is going to win everything. We certainly think it's
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: going to win Best Picture. We think it's going to
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: win Best Director. We think Downey is going to win
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: Best Supporting Actor.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: That's three locks.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: We think Killian Murphy is going to win Best Actor.
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: He certainly has the he's the favorite by a.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Mile, yep.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: But there could be Gamatti sentiment, so maybe there's a
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: bit of a well.
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: Here, I'll tell you right now, sorry to interrupt you,
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: this we have to look for. Okay, one category we
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: didn't discuss, and these there's always sort of tips in
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: the night as the awards, you know, get rolled out.
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: Best Original Screenplay, which is basically between Anatomy of the
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: Fall is an excellent movie, between a nant fall and
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: The Holdovers. Anatomy of the Fall kind of has the
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: edge because that's everyone's kind of favorite, like in the
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: European film, and she's you know, been winning a lot
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: of stuff. But when Barbie got moved from original screenplay
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: to adapt it, people thought that really favored The Holdovers.
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: Now Divine Joy Randolph, I might be mistronouncing her first name.
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: She's gonna win Supporting Actress for Holdovers. Uh, so that
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: that's gonna happen. And if you see early in the
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: Night or when they announced the screenplays, if Dave Hemingson
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: wins original screenplay for The Holdovers, I would bet you
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: anything Giamatti is gonna win Best Actor. If he doesn't,
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: then killing is gonna win all the way. And again
• 43:02
  Speaker 3: it doesn't to your listeners. Know, it doesn't mean that
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: anything can change. The votes have been tabulated. But what
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: it means is is their momentum, you know, and and
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: you know there was a time where actually thought Holdovers
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: could have challenged Oppenheimer. But that time is come and gone.
• 43:16
  Speaker 3: And by the way, Holdovers was released by Focus, which
• 43:18
  Speaker 3: is owned by Universal. Universal made Oppenheimer, and trust me,
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: the main bosses at Universal do not want anything to
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: get in the way of Oppenheimer's you know, domination on Sunday.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: But the reason why this is valuable info is because
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: if we see the screenwriting win, it's possible we could
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: still get some money down for Best Actor on GMT.
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: Oh, can you bet that late in the podcast.
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but that's something to think about if
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: the betting is still open. Otherwise, what you're telling us
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: is not helpful information because we need to know.
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: I mean begins, I was going to I was gonna
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: tell you earlier. And this is something that actually that
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: we talked about. I think that Bill Simmons had brought
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: up on one of his podcasts that Jimmy Kimmel had
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: famously bet on and he'd gone to Vegas, I guess,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: and he'd bet Coda in like October of that year
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: to win Best Picture and actually like made money on it.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: And I think in a weird way, that's the only
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: real because of all the precursor awards, that's the only
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: real way you could make a lot of money is
• 44:17
  Speaker 3: if you just went to Vegas every October and November.
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: And by the way, we should do it sometime. I'll
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: help you guys do it and just lay a bunch
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: of bets because you have a sense at that point
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: of how things are maybe turning out. But the odds
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: would probably be very different.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: The other one Best Actress.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: This is where it might be most competitive, because Lily
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Gladstone is only minus one sixty Emma Stone plus one twenty.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: Anything that I missed, Simon, anything that I missed that
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: we feel there might be an opportunity. Anything you bet
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: that we didn't discuss that we want to get some.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Validation on.
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: Just pick what you just said.
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: She's moved actually minus two ten and a lot of books,
• 45:03
  Speaker 4: so she's it's looking more and more like she's gonna
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: win Best Actress. I'm pretty sure she won the sag Award.
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: She did so, like he just said, that feels like
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: great value for a girl that's already beloved by all
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: the actors and actresses of Hollywood, and it seems like
• 45:19
  Speaker 4: she's gonna start blowing up now. So that just makes sense.
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: And minus two tenant a couple of books. That's good
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: value on her.
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: But we just talked.
• 45:27
  Speaker 4: We can talk about it. Godzilla minus one.
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: Over visual effects.
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's kind of a good sleeper where you
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: compare those together and get a nice number. They're minus
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: one fifty a lot of books. This spidy like really
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: real deep into a film. People is beloved, like they
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: love the visual of it. Everything about that move they love.
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: So a nice little supper movie you compare with that
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: to get a nice plus number.
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, I like that. Yeah, that's smart all right.
• 45:54
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