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ASML's Guidance Is Up. So Is the Risk.
ASML just raised guidance at both ends — new range is €36 to €40 billion for 2026, implying around 17% growth year over year. That's a strong result.
But the data underneath it tells a more complicated story.In this episode, we break down what ASML's Q1 2026 earnings mean for the broader wafer fab equipment cycle, why ASML is expected to slightly underperform the 300mm equipment market this year, and what the semi.org outlook through 2028 is quietly flagging about the next mid-cycle slowdown.
We also run a reverse DCF on ASML at current prices — and walk through why the implied earnings…
The skinny
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