Latest / BREAK/FIX the Motorsports & Vehicle Enthusiast Variety Show / EV Fires: a Storm in a Teacup
Transcript
- 0:00John Summers is the motoring historian.
- 0:02He was a company car thrashing technology sales rep that turned into
- 0:06a fairly inept sports bike rider.
- 0:08Hailing from California, he collects cars and bikes built with plenty of
- 0:12cheap and fast and not much reliable.
- 0:15On his show, he gets together with various co-hosts to talk about new
- 0:18and old cars, driving, motorbikes, motor racing, and motoring travel
- 0:35Good day, good morning, good afternoon.
- 0:37It is John Summers, the motoring historian Today, electric vehicle fires, or more
- 0:44specifically, is there anything in what these conspiracy theorist types say
- 0:49about, "Oh, EVs, they all catch fire. Oh." 'Cause, you know, instinctively, right,
- 0:55yeah, a computer gets hot, but on the face of it, normal cars have, like, gasoline,
- 1:01and the gasoline runs in little rubber hoses right by the hot exhaust, right?
- 1:06That's what cars were like years ago.
- 1:08It just feels like instinctively a Chevy Chevelle is more likely to
- 1:12burst into flames rather than a Tesla.
- 1:14That- that's just how I feel about it.
- 1:16But notwithstanding the fact that obviously, uh, the Tesla can get in
- 1:20the sea, and I love a V8 Chevelle, even if it is gonna catch on fire
- 1:24and burn it and myself to a crisp.
- 1:26But that's not why you're tuned in, is it?
- 1:28You're tuned in really for me to actually tell you whether or not this,
- 1:32this EV fire thing is, is actually, you know, real or, or just some BS.
- 1:37So, so let's drill into that, and let's drill into that via
- 1:41a presentation that I had.
- 1:42It's another one of these Society of Automotive Engineer things
- 1:46that took place at Stanford.
- 1:48This is a couple of ways.
- 1:48It's not at Stanford, it's in Palo Alto at, uh, the Nordic
- 1:52Innovation House or something.
- 1:54I think that's the name of the venue.
- 1:55But anyway, the fellow who I saw present was called Dr. Adeed Kamal,
- 2:00and, uh, he's a professor of thermal science at a firm called Exponent.
- 2:06Now, it's worth going to their website and looking at what they do because
- 2:10basically, you know, when that Boeing 747 or 737, when they kept on trying
- 2:16to, you know, fly the plane at the ground and crash, Exponent were the
- 2:20people who Boeing came to to be like, "Shit, the plane won't work properly.
- 2:24Help us." You know, they are these kind of process men, material engineers,
- 2:30but ultra-clever Stanford ones.
- 2:36Jeff Buys Cars, the YouTuber, he does all these things about EV La La Land
- 2:42and, and how terrible that they are.
- 2:44And so partly I went to this session so that I could reach out to him and say,
- 2:49"You know, these are the facts on EV fires." It took the presenter there…
- 2:54I c- I can't read his name properly.
- 2:56I wrote it down, like Adeed or Aveed or something like that.
- 2:59I'm sorry, sir. You were very well informed and a, and a terrific presenter,
- 3:04and I'm sorry I didn't write your name down properly, but not to worry.
- 3:07Kamal was the, the second name.
- 3:08I'll look him up on the website and connect him and all of that, so.
- 3:11Uh, the, the point is that he spent a long time not really answering what
- 3:16would've been, you know, Jeff Buys Cars conspiracy theorist YouTuber.
- 3:21So, you know, so Jeff had piqued my interest, right?
- 3:23Jeff had made me think, "Oh, you know, maybe there is something in this, this EV
- 3:28fires thing. I'll see what the Stanford perspective was." And I reached out to
- 3:33Jeff to be like, "You know, I'm going to this thing. Are you interested in what I
- 3:39learn?" And I didn't hear back from him.
- 3:41Obviously, you know, he's a YouTuber with a million subscribers, right?
- 3:44You know what I mean?
- 3:45He's probably got better things to be doing than responding to me.
- 3:47I'm not bothered by that, right?
- 3:48But then just a couple of weeks later, he did another EV fires thing being
- 3:53like, "Oh, doom and gloom. These EV cars will be the death of us."
- 3:58And I'm like, "No, dude, I gave you the chance to have the proper
- 4:01information, and you just rejected it." So bit of a butthole.
- 4:05He, he, he… You know, anyway, whatever.
- 4:07So, so Jeff, thanks for piquing me, but, uh, dude, you're a bit of an idiot
- 4:12because the raw stats, it, it took, um, this Kemel fellow a while to get
- 4:17there, but the raw stats, you can hear me leafing through my notes, can't you,
- 4:20to the end of the presentation here.
- 4:22But, but look, the number of vehicle fires since 1980 has decreased by half.
- 4:28Consistently, the study that he had showed, you know, from like
- 4:33insurance data, showed that vehicle fires almost always occur in
- 4:39vehicles that are 10 to 20 years old.
- 4:42So it's that stravel where the fuel lines have got old and have started to crack.
- 4:46It does get on the exhaust.
- 4:47Those cars do catch fire.
- 4:49They always did.
- 4:50It seems like EVs are five times or 10 times less likely to actually catch fire.
- 4:58But there are circumstances where they do, and the way in which they do is
- 5:03different from the way that gas cars do.
- 5:06And what do I mean by that?
- 5:07I mean, you know, they'll wreck.
- 5:09You'll get it on the back of the tow truck.
- 5:10The thing'll catch fire afterwards.
- 5:12You'll get it in the tow yard.
- 5:14It won't have moved for six weeks.
- 5:15It'll still catch fire.
- 5:17Believe it or not, there are even stories of that happening in, in an LA tow yard.
- 5:21So that is fuel to the fire, forgive the pun, of folk like Jeff
- 5:28who are like, "Well, I'm afraid.
- 5:30I'll take my, you know, Hillman Hunter with its cracked gas line spraying
- 5:35gas right onto the hot manifold.
- 5:37Um, you know, I'll take my risk of that fire that I can understand.
- 5:41I'll take that over, you know, the EV fire that's all peculiar and sometimes
- 5:47it catches fire and sometimes it doesn't, and there's not any real flame, and when
- 5:50you put water on it, you know, it doesn't put the flame out," and all of that.
- 5:53And that's just a case, you know, the fire department needing to
- 5:56have the right fire to put it out.
- 5:58Or the other thing he said is a lot of them are like rollover accidents, or
- 6:02if the car's not rolled over the- but the battery's caught fire, you can't
- 6:06actually spray the fire retardant where the fire is 'cause the fire's on the
- 6:10battery that's in the floor of the car.
- 6:12So what are we saying here?
- 6:14We're saying that as society pivots to using more and more electric vehicles,
- 6:20the fire risk, whilst it's still there, is going to be significantly reduced.
- 6:30EV fires are different because with ICE cars, once you turn off
- 6:35the motor, there is no fire risk.
- 6:37The problem with EVs is there's still energy trapped in the battery.
- 6:44That energy has to go somewhere.
- 6:46You know, it can't just sit in the gas tank inert.
- 6:49It has to, to go somewhere, and that's where there's the fire risk, and that's
- 6:54why the fires can happen, you know, when the accident's over, when the
- 6:58car's on the back of the recovery truck or in the tow yard and, and even weeks
- 7:03later if the circumstances are right.
- 7:05And what I'm gonna talk about in the rest of this presentation is the
- 7:08stuff that he talked about as being, you know, what goes wrong inside
- 7:13the battery for fires to happen.
- 7:15So stranded energy causes the fires.
- 7:19Getting it all out, that's the Holy Grail because if you can suck it
- 7:23all out, there's no chance of fire.
- 7:25Coming back to the, uh, the top of my presentation, 15% of total fires
- 7:31are EVs, and by that he includes pure BEVs and hybrids as well.
- 7:41I don't know why I had that stat up there because I'm gonna jump around now and
- 7:45just tell you a little bit about Exponent.
- 7:47It's a firm of Stanford grads that started about 30 years ago.
- 7:51Hundreds of PhDs, that was what I, I wrote down here.
- 7:55So… And projects they were involved in were the Toyota unintended acceleration.
- 8:02They also talked about, this is something if you're in the Bay Area you'll remember
- 8:05it, but there was a gas explosion in San Bruno a couple of years ago, and
- 8:09they looked at what it was that, uh, caused that, and the Boeing Max flying
- 8:14at the ground, that was them that did the analysis and the fix on, on that.
- 8:19So that's big cheese shit, isn't it?
- 8:21Like, let's, uh, call a sl- spade a spade.
- 8:24Now, the next thing he did was he did a sort of, you know, how did we get here?
- 8:28Always amuses me when scientists do the history piece, right?
- 8:32Because as scientists, they always wanna be able to say, you know,
- 8:35"First there was the Cugnot steam chariot, then there was, you know,
- 8:39Carl Benz and his wife who patent…"
- 8:42You know, they, they wanna have this, you know, after one comes two, and
- 8:46after two comes three kind of story, and of course, history doesn't work
- 8:49like that, and we historians, we just love to change our mind about whether
- 8:53three really came before two, or whether three's really more than two, or
- 8:56whether three's actually more like one.
- 8:58We as, as historians really love having those kind of debates and, and
- 9:02scientists tend not to, to wanna do that.
- 9:05And as an automobile historian, you exist in this place where so many of the people
- 9:09writing auto history are engineers who need this A, B, C, D, E kind of path.
- 9:15And, and as a trained historian, you're actually unwilling to
- 9:19go down that kind of path.
- 9:21And, and this is why auto history does not exist in history departments as such.
- 9:27We, we exist under technology history, and the more interesting
- 9:32bits of automotive history, I think, almost fit in philosophy of history.
- 9:37But look, I don't wanna fall down… I have fallen down
- 9:39that rabbit hole, haven't I?
- 9:40But the point is, right, that he positioned up, you know, the history of,
- 9:46you know, how did we get to where we were.
- 9:471859, the first lead-acid battery, Gaston Plante, apparently.
- 9:531888, I think that says, first production EV.
- 9:57This was a chap called Thomas Parker in, in England.
- 10:01By… In 1900, 28% of vehicles were electric.
- 10:05Did we know that?
- 10:06Of course we car guys did.
- 10:08The Baker Electric and all of that and, uh, and you know, I certainly can never
- 10:13forget that, that French count whose name escapes me, but whose car held
- 10:18the land speed record for a bit, and he called it La Jamais Contente, The Never
- 10:22Happy, and he named it after his wife.
- 10:27So that 28% statistic of, you know, all vehicles, that's before
- 10:31the Model T, and it's before Rockefeller and oil consolidation.
- 10:35So, you know, really between those, those two things.
- 10:38I don't know, it'd be interesting to do the research into it properly, but
- 10:41my sense is between those two things, those are the things that really did for
- 10:45early electric cars and the need to…
- 10:471916, the Woods Dual Power Hybrid.
- 10:51Oh, I've missed the 1902 Studebaker Electric that had a 40-mile range
- 10:56and had regenerative brakes.
- 10:58He made the point that, you know, all these batteries, all, all these EVs, it's
- 11:02all about lithium ion flow, and it's about making that flow rate work effectively,
- 11:10and it's about making sure that even though you have many, many battery
- 11:16cells, you don't have a failure rate.
- 11:18So the example that he gave was that Tesla came to Exponent years ago saying
- 11:24the failure rate of their cells was about one in a million, and that was not a
- 11:30good enough rate for them to be able to start building cars in a meaningful way.
- 11:35So they came to Exponent to say, "How do we reduce the
- 11:38failure rate of these cells?"
- 11:41One thing that I did think was quite interesting was he did refer to EVs
- 11:44as glorified golf carts whilst talking himself about driving a BMW 740.
- 11:53So the cause of fires in EVs comes from a single cell warming up And the way that
- 12:01these things are, are, are laid out is that there's hundreds of these cells.
- 12:07Well, the way to perhaps think about it is something like a Prius, is
- 12:10under the back seat, there's something that looks like a giant cooler.
- 12:14Almost it looks a bit like the power pack, almost looks a bit like if
- 12:18you've seen tool chests in, in the bed of a pickup truck, those tool
- 12:22chests that go right up against the cab, those kind of tool chests.
- 12:26It looks like something like that.
- 12:27And inside it, when you, you open it up and, and take it apart, there's
- 12:32all these sliced modules of cells.
- 12:36So you can sort of pull them out almost like toast out of a toaster.
- 12:40Then the individual cells are within each slice.
- 12:46So the reason that I know that is that, that HubNut did a video just recently
- 12:52where he tried to repair, successfully did repair the battery on a Toyota Prius.
- 12:58I'll include the link for him doing that.
- 13:01But the way that he did that was went to a specialist in, you know, rubber
- 13:05gloves and all of that, and it is a bit frightening 'cause the voltages
- 13:08are so huge that it'd just fucking fry you and kill you if you made a mistake.
- 13:13So there is, you know, that element of it.
- 13:15And, you know, when he was there with… Uh, he went to an EV dealer, uh, who
- 13:19he's friends with, and he did the work, but he had, like, the guy that deals
- 13:24in these secondhand EVs, he had him work with him basically for exactly
- 13:28for that reason of, of safety, and the tools, like the screwdrivers have got
- 13:32big rubber handles on them, and they were wearing, like, Marigold, like,
- 13:36washing up gloves to be doing the work.
- 13:38And what HubNut was saying is the business of taking the pack out or accessing
- 13:43the pack wasn't too difficult, but the business of, uh, when you put the pack
- 13:47back together, making sure that it's all, like, cross-referenced in the right
- 13:53way, he had the, you know, he had the specialist do that, and that to me looked
- 13:57like being a, a, a pretty hideous job.
- 14:00I guess the other part of it is that it's, it's not just enough to, like, pop
- 14:04another slice of toast in, so to speak.
- 14:07You have to balance the load across the cells.
- 14:11And part of the reason why I'm sharing this is I think you can tell how slim
- 14:16my understanding is of the topic, but I do feel like we're in a place
- 14:20now where there's beginning to be a raft of specialists who are able to
- 14:25replace and, and you as, uh, you know, and me as a car enthusiast is able
- 14:29to recognize, well, have we replaced just one slice of toast there, or have
- 14:34we replaced the entire power pack?
- 14:37'Cause if we've done the whole power pack, that's gonna be better than just
- 14:40one slice of the toast and then having to balance the cells across the whole power
- 14:46pack with the new bank of cells inserted.
- 14:49But in essence, what happens and, and the language that this, um, physicist fellow,
- 14:54thermodynamicist specialist used…
- 14:57'Cause that's basically what the bloke was.
- 14:58The bloke was just like a specialist in- fire and explosions
- 15:24He talked about EV fires as being runaway thermal events.
- 15:24At first, you're a bit like, "Ooh, adult beverage." It's not really
- 15:24that because what we're saying is that one cell, there's a fault in
- 15:24the manufacturing somewhere, it's just a bit weak for some reason.
- 15:24And after the cycles of charge and recharge, and charge and recharge, and,
- 15:27you know, the ions flowing backwards and forwards, and backwards and
- 15:30forwards, and backwards and forward, it gets hot and it starts to fail.
- 15:33And as it starts to fail, not just that one gets hot, it
- 15:37heats up its neighbors as well.
- 15:40And that's what happens, is that if it heats up its neighbors as well and the
- 15:45neighbors become damaged, eventually… And he did show, you know, he showed
- 15:51video of this happening that, you know, if you can, you know, if you,
- 15:55if you can spot it coming, like, and get coolant to it within, like, half a
- 16:00second, you might stop it catching fire.
- 16:03But fundamentally, when you, you can spot a little bit when it
- 16:08starts to get overheated, but the thermal runway path is quite short.
- 16:13So think of it, one bit catches fire.
- 16:16So if in a, in a situation where the, a car's had a wreck and it's caught
- 16:22fire The fire brigade come and they put out the fire, but the energy's
- 16:27still sitting in the battery, and all the cells around the one that caught
- 16:32fire, they're all still damaged.
- 16:34Even more now if there's been a fire, probably the whole battery's
- 16:37damaged and there's hundreds of cells which are damaged.
- 16:40So it's very easy to imagine how fires could start again.
- 16:44And if you layer into the fact that, you know, when the Chevelle is on
- 16:48fire, you know, you spray fire at the top of it and the fire goes out.
- 16:52You know, you don't open the hood and the fire goes out.
- 16:54Whereas if it's in a battery that's underneath, unless the
- 16:58car's turned over, how are you even gonna spray the retardant onto it?
- 17:02Has the fire people even been trained to look out for this kind of thing?
- 17:07So it's just everyone being trained and ready to fight this new kind of fire
- 17:16that is the risk the, the EVs represent.
- 17:19And I do think it's interesting that whether it's the 10 to 20-year-old,
- 17:24you know, Chevelle or Hillman Hunter that catches fire, or whether it's the
- 17:2810 to 20-year-old Tesla that catches fire, it's still technology which is
- 17:34fundamentally… It's a lot of energy.
- 17:37It's a lot of energy which is stored, and that storage, as the
- 17:41mechanism of storing it becomes used up, it is likely to catch fire.
- 17:47However, the Tesla at 10 years old is still a whole lot less likely to
- 17:51catch fire than the Hillman Hunter was, or, you know, whatever other
- 17:55silly example it was I was just giving.
- 17:58So it's not that there's nothing in what the conspiracy theorists are saying.
- 18:03These EVs do catch fire in really weird and spooky ways, but for Christ's
- 18:07sake, it's just not very many of them.
- 18:09So Jeff, Jeff, you're misinforming people with this, and when I offered
- 18:13to correct you, you just ignored me, so I'm a little disappointed by that.
- 18:17There's a little bit of deliberate misinformation going on in the
- 18:27anti-EV world.
- 18:28Who knew?
- 18:28What a surprise.
- 18:29Yeah, so now they stack cells, but what they used to do is roll them up.
- 18:35So it used to be they used to do them more flat and then they would roll it,
- 18:38it all up, but that's an older design now and, and le- and less efficient.
- 18:43So the specifics of the thermal runaway event are this.
- 18:47That first the heating starts because of the cycling backwards and forwards
- 18:52and because that cell is maybe just less efficient than its neighbors.
- 18:57And if the heating is allowed to continue unchecked, the plastic
- 19:02around the cell softens and melts.
- 19:06That causes the electrolytes, which is the secret sauce of the battery that
- 19:11determines the electron flow and, you know, is why your Leaf battery claps out
- 19:17after a short amount of time, whereas Tesla batteries seem to last far longer.
- 19:21The electrolyte fluid boils.
- 19:24The boiling of the electrolyte fluid creates O2, and that's the first
- 19:30ingredients then for a full normal fire.
- 19:34Yeah, he showed us a video of like a rolled-up cell, so an older style cell.
- 19:39He showed it in s- slow motion and basically the whole thing
- 19:43like the process from like okay to full on fire was 200 milliseconds.
- 19:50I mean, it, it, it kind of boggled the mind, uh, a little bit.
- 19:53So just like with a gas car, if there's a tank full of gas, the
- 19:59fire risk is much worse than if there's not a tank full of gas.
- 20:02So if you're on 80% state of charge, the fire risk there, you know, for an
- 20:08EV which is wrecked and been damaged, if the battery pack has been physically
- 20:12damaged, you know, 'cause if you hit it with a hammer or you smash it…
- 20:16Like in fact, here's a really interesting comparison that he gave.
- 20:21The plane companies have in place a whole bunch of, you know, tray tables
- 20:27upright kind of policies that are specifically around making sure that
- 20:33you… It's the phone drop, right?
- 20:35You know, they're always like, "You know, we'll help you
- 20:36find the phone," all of that.
- 20:38It's because hell or high water, they don't want the phone to be
- 20:41trapped in the reclining chair.
- 20:43Because if the phone or an iPad or a computer's trapped in one of the reclining
- 20:48seats, you recline it, you break the device, you damage the bat-- you know, you
- 20:52bend the device, you damage the battery.
- 20:55That is why laptops and cell phones can burst into flames
- 21:00for exactly the same reason.
- 21:01The cell's damaged, and it leads to this breakdown, and then, you know, the full-on
- 21:06release of energy in the form of, of fire.
- 21:10So with a full battery, the fire is gonna be briefer and more intense.
- 21:16You remember there was that incident where a car ferry had
- 21:20caught fire not so long ago.
- 21:21I'll include a link to it.
- 21:23I think there were multiple incidents, but what that has led to is the, the
- 21:29shipping companies are demanding that the cars ship with a less than 50%
- 21:35state of charge to avoid the fire risk.
- 21:37Because if they have a fuller battery, the fire… There's just, you know,
- 21:42there's more gas to burn, right?
- 21:43It's, it's that simple.
- 21:44It's in a different form, but nonetheless, the stored energy, there's an issue with
- 21:49that, with how the energy is stored.
- 21:52If a cell fails, if there's a fault in the manufacturing, you
- 21:56have this runaway thermal event.
- 21:59And, you know, it always existed, right?
- 22:01The Hillman Hunters on their way being shipped to Iran.
- 22:03Did you know there's lots and lots of Hillman Hunters in Iran?
- 22:07There's a whole sidebar about Hillman Hunters being made after marketing.
- 22:11But let's imagine the first Hillman Hunters, they were actually sh- shipped
- 22:15as knock-down kits and built in Iran.
- 22:18But no, let's imagine the cars being shipped on the ferry in the same way.
- 22:21For every 100,000 Hillman Hunters, one might have a
- 22:25cracked fuel line, mightn't it?
- 22:26And that car might leak gas, and when you fire it up to drive it off the
- 22:30ferry, it might catch fire, just exactly in the way that the, uh, that the EVs
- 22:38have.
- 22:39So he wanted to talk about some particular issues.
- 22:42One of them was that in 2021, all Chevy Bolts had a, a recall, and
- 22:48they replaced all the batteries.
- 22:50So it's like 140,000 batteries replaced.
- 22:52Apparently, it cost GM $2 billion to do it.
- 22:56But the thing that they did with the replacements was they limited
- 22:59charging to 80%, because when they were carrying more than 80% charge,
- 23:03that was when there was a fire risk.
- 23:05The other example he had, and you may remember this, was that Hyundai
- 23:09had fire issues in 2022, and were telling people to park their cars
- 23:13outside because of the fire risk.
- 23:15But these were ICE cars.
- 23:17It just goes to show that even, you know, there's modern versions of
- 23:21Hillman Hunters being built with cracked fuel lines because there's
- 23:25just so many components on modern cars.
- 23:27So it only takes one little slip twixt cup and lip, and, and you can find
- 23:32yourself in this kind of situation.
- 23:37There is a conclusion to be drawn from that, isn't there?
- 23:40That are EV fires a real thing?
- 23:43Yes.
- 23:44Is it important that we train our firefighters and all of the infrastructure
- 23:50around accident prevention, you know, tow truck drivers, all of that?
- 23:54Is it important that everyone understands that these things
- 23:57catch fire in a different way from the way that gas cars do?
- 24:00Oh, yes, for sure.
- 24:01But the fundamentals of it, most cars don't catch fire, some do if
- 24:06there's a fault in manufacturing.
- 24:08We're working really hard to try and limit the number of faults in manufacturing.
- 24:12We're much better now than we were years ago.
- 24:15These EVs are orders of magnitude better than modern … Than, you know, even,
- 24:22you know, the, the gas-powered cars of the 2010s, let alone the gas-powered cars
- 24:27of the '70s and the '80s for fire risk.
- 24:31It's a bit of a storm in a teacup, that, isn't it?
- 24:33Sure, we need to be afraid.
- 24:35Sure, the fires are different from other kinds of fires, but, but really
- 24:39this is a bit of a non-story, isn't it?
- 24:42So there you go.
- 24:43That's my two cents on EV fires.
- 24:46Thank you, Drive Thru.
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