Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4219 CHINA Is FADING Fast!!!

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Ep. 4219 CHINA Is FADING Fast!!! · Turley Talks

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  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China built the greatest industrial machine the modern world has ever seen and economic colossus that many believe was destined to overtake the United States and dominate the 21st century.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But something extraordinary is now happening beneath the surface.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: President Trump is quietly turning America's markets, technology, energy, and trade relationships into instruments of national power.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And as we'll see, China will never be the same.
• 0:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Stick them in the very end of this video because we're going to see how China's economic weakness and Trump's America first trade revolution are converging in what is fast becoming one of the greatest geopolitical reversals of our time.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve Orpater, Professor Celebrity, yet another glorious stay in the Trumpian Golden Age.
• 1:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: That you made possible back in November of 2024.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you want to front Rosina and how you continue to change the world in ways you never even imagine, make sure to smack that bell and subscribe button.
• 1:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: There are moments when seemingly unrelated events.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: suddenly come together and reveal an entirely new geopolitical reality.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Just days ago at the end of September, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an official visit to Washington, D.C., where he and President Trump discussed trade, Taiwan, Iran, artificial intelligence, and military power, none of which were isolated issues.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: There are all pieces of something much larger.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: a struggle over who command the future, what values will guide it, and how rival civilizations can peacefully coexist.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We're now getting a sense of how these two great, though rival civilizations are realigning around the world, and who has what appears to be the clear upper hand, because behind all the ceremony and diplomatic language, there's a brutally simple economic reality taking shape.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China needs access to America far more than America needs access to China and there's really no way around that.
• 2:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: China needs access to America far more than America needs access to China and President Trump is determined to turn that imbalance into the central strategic advantage of the 21st century.
• 2:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: A better, more nuanced way of putting it is this.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China is more vulnerable to losing access to the American market, and especially the wider US-led economic block around the world, then America is to losing access to China.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Now that does not mean that China is collapsing,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Beijing still possesses the world's most formidable manufacturing base, China remains enormously competitive and electric vehicles, batteries, robotics, electronics, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and advanced industrial production.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In fact, China's industrial output grew by an impressive 5.2% in August driven largely by high-tech manufacturing and the artificial intelligence boom.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But here's the fundamental problem for China.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China can produce almost anything, for sure.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: but what an increasingly cannot do is generate enough domestic demand to purchase everything it produces.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And so Beijing has become dependent on the rest of the world, particularly the vast American-centered economic system.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: to absorb the industrial surplus its own people cannot, and that is precisely the vulnerability President Trump is exploiting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China now has what economists call an acute supply and demand imbalance.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Its factories continue turning out products at extraordinary scale.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: But Chinese households remain reluctant to spend property values or falling.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Developers are struggling, local governments are burdened by debt, and families who savings are tied up in real estate are becoming increasingly cautious.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The International Monetary Fund, the IMF, has now reduced China's 2026 growth forecasts to 4.5% the very bottom of Beijing's official target range and expects growth to slow further to about 4% next year.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's another way of saying China's engine is becoming radically unbalanced.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China's domestic economy is weakening at precisely the same moment that its industrial machine is becoming more productive.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that means Beijing has to increasingly look beyond its own borders to sell the goods its own consumers are simply not buying.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It needs
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  [SPEAKER_00]: foreign markets.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It needs foreign consumers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And above all, it needs continued access to the largest and most lucrative consumer market on the planet.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that, of course, is these United States of America.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that gang is where Trump's strategy becomes absolutely brilliant.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump understands that America's greatest economic weapon is not merely the products we manufacture.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's access to the American consumer.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: For decades, the global establishment treated that access almost as an international entitlement.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Foreign governments could subsidize their industries, manipulate trade rules, hollow out American manufacturing, transfer production overseas, and then sell the resulting products right back into the American market.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China mastered that system, Beijing used Western capital, Western technology, and Western consumers to build the greatest industrial machine the world had ever seen, all while maintaining its
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  [SPEAKER_00]: protecting its own industries and advancing its own civilization ambitions.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump's revolution is the recognition that America is under no obligation to continue financing the rising of the civilization seeking to surpass it.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And so Trump is not merely imposing tariffs on Chinese products.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's reorganizing the entire economic environment surrounding China, restricting its access to advanced technology, rebuilding strategic supply chains, and turning admission to the American market into an instrument of national power and leverage.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: For decades America helped construct the economic highway that carried China toward global supremacy.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is not merely putting up a toll booth.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: He's changing where that highway leads.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Wait until you see this.
• 7:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Again, I've been thinking a lot lately about what it means to build a future for our families.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's not simply to react to the changes happening around us, but to take advantage of them.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And one of the most remarkable opportunities I'm seeing right now without question is artificial intelligence.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: AI, now I know when you hear that a lot of people say, yeah, Steve.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not a tech person.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know the first thing about AI.
• 7:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that's precise of why I wanted to share this with you.
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: A good friend of our show, co-author of one of my books, Joseph Aaron, has been doing something extraordinary with his family.
• 7:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: He made a commitment that every member of his household would learn how to use AI to build their own income stream.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So his 18-year-old son, his 16-year-old son, his 21-year-old daughter,
• 8:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: and is wife.
• 8:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not computer scientists.
• 8:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're a family learning how to use these new tools to create real businesses and open up new possibilities for their future.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what makes us so exciting.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: AI is changing the amount of time
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  [SPEAKER_00]: and technical experience it takes to get certain kinds of businesses off the ground.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Work that once required a whole team can now, in many cases, be handled with tools that ordinary people can learn to use.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Joseph and his kids are now inviting you to see how they're doing it.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: They're hosting a completely free,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: five-day live experience on Zoom, where they walk you through the process of building an AI-sisted income stream of your own.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You get to see the tools, learn the steps, and work alongside them as they show you what's possible.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Our team attended their previous event, and I gotta tell you, I was absolutely impressed.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We watched people who had never used AI before begin putting together business ideas and systems with a level of speed that would have been
• 9:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: possible to have imagined just a few years ago.
• 9:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here's something else.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: We shared this event with you guys a couple of months back and the response was tremendous.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm delighted to tell you that Joseph and his family are opening it up again.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to be a programmer.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need to have years of business experience.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: You do need to be willing to learn, you know, put in the work and discover how these tools can help you.
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Click the link below and register for Joseph Aaron's free five day live Zoom experience.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Come see what he and his family have built and learn how you can begin building something of your own.
• 9:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Click on that link below right now.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: first trade.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: As a July the congressional research service estimate that Chinese goods face an average American tariff of approximately 36.5%.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Vehicles and auto parts face roughly 44% steel products between 1558% aluminum 65% and copper nearly 74%.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Those duties make Chinese exports more expensive, precisely when Beijing's weak domestic demand makes it increasingly dependent on foreign buyers.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Second, Trump is closing the Transshipment loophole.
• 10:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Chinese companies have long rooted components through countries such as Vietnam or Mexico perform minimal assembly there and relabel them as local products.
• 10:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: So Trump's reciprocal trade agreements now authorize stronger rules of origin to prevent benefits from flowing to third countries, while executive order 14-411 tightened importer disclosures, bonding requirements, penalties, and customs enforcement.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words, China cannot simply go around Trump's tariff wall.
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: It must prove where its products were actually made.
• 11:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Third, Trump is constraining China's technological frontier.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Export controls continue restricting advancing processors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and American technical support for Chinese chip production.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is permitted limited sales of Nvidia H200 chips, but only under case by case licenses, security reviews, domestic supply guarantees, volume caps,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Beijing can purchase yesterday's control technology under American conditions, all the while the most advanced capabilities remain protected and restricted.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Finally, Trump is exploiting China's energy vulnerability.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China must import roughly 11 million barrels of oil a day, including substantial quantities of discounted Iranian crude.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump's maximum pressure campaign has targeted the shell companies, tankers and financial networks supplying that oil, raising costs for the Chinese refineries that help power Beijing's manufacturing machine.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: So, Trump is squeezing China at both ends, making the inputs required to manufacture more expensive and difficult to obtain while making the resulting products
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's the key to Trump's squeeze on China.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Make the inputs required in a manufacturer more expensive while making the outputs, the resulting products harder to sell abroad.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: That's not merely a tariff policy.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's economic containment.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's what makes this so much larger than a conventional trade dispute.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump isn't merely taxing Chinese goods, he's challenging the entire economic model that powered Beijing's rise.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: China's factory still produce a astonishing scale no question, but access to American consumers, advanced chips, reliable energy, and easy-trans shipment routes is becoming increasingly more restricted.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: In other words,
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  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump is forcing Beijing to compete without the open Western markets and technologies that help make its a cent possible.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The contest is no longer simply over who manufactures the most.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: It's over who controls the markets, the resources, and the technological gateways that make manufacturing power matter.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: What that means is frankly simple.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: The influence China exercise in the world isn't collapsing.
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  [SPEAKER_00]: but because of American control and President Trump's squeeze, it certainly is fading.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for listening to this episode of The Turly Talks Podcast.
• 13:53
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• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Come back again tomorrow for another episode