Latest / Best of Business / Brad Olsen: Infometrics principal economist on the shortage of available jobs for June 2025

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Brad Olsen: Infometrics principal economist on the shortage of available jobs for June 2025 · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: There were almost twenty eight thousand fewer jobs in June
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  Speaker 2: compared to last June. More than twelve thousand of those
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  Speaker 2: lost jobs came from the construction sector. Almost six thousand
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  Speaker 2: were manufacturing jobs. Education and primary industries added jobs. Brad
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  Speaker 2: Olsen's Infametrics principal economist.
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  Speaker 3: Hey, Brad, Good evening.
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  Speaker 2: Look, I mean, you know, lost jobs, has lost jobs,
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  Speaker 2: and it's never great. But is this as bad as
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  Speaker 2: expected or is it worse or not and not as bad?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, look, it's certainly challenging when the economy
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  Speaker 3: has lost twenty eight thousand rolls over the last year,
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  Speaker 3: But in fairness, we've sort of already known that for
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  Speaker 3: quite a few months. You look back at what we've
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  Speaker 3: seen over the last couple and job numbers have been
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  Speaker 3: down at this level or if not even worse of
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  Speaker 3: an annual decline. That's not to say that things are
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  Speaker 3: easy at the moment, but we have been seeing on
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  Speaker 3: a more month to month basis that job numbers in
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand have broadly been tracking sideways, some months up,
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  Speaker 3: some months down, but really no real trend. And I
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  Speaker 3: think that's probably the wider concern. We know that there's
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  Speaker 3: been a big job drop in jobs, but people are
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  Speaker 3: now looking and going well. Surely now that we're starting
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  Speaker 3: to see some of those the economic rev up that's
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  Speaker 3: being talked about, where are the jobs are we're starting
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  Speaker 3: to see that growth yet and unfortunately, so far, there's
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  Speaker 3: just not really any evidence. In the month of June
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  Speaker 3: a very slight zero point one percent increase in the
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  Speaker 3: seasonally adjusted monthly figures, but really no real trend in
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  Speaker 3: so far, there's just no evidence that we're seeing a
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  Speaker 3: pick up quite yet. Have we reached the bottom though,
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  Speaker 3: I think we probably have, or you'd certainly hope so,
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  Speaker 3: over the next couple of months at least, I don't
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  Speaker 3: think it would start to deteriorate all that much. Further,
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  Speaker 3: we're still expecting that the likes of the unemployment rate
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  Speaker 3: will peak ever so slightly higher than where it was
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  Speaker 3: at the start of this year around five point three
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  Speaker 3: percent over the next couple of months. But interestingly, you're
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  Speaker 3: starting to see in some areas actually a bit of
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  Speaker 3: growth for the likes of the South Island job numbers
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  Speaker 3: are now up ever so slightly on where they were
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  Speaker 3: a year ago. It's just that North Island job figures
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  Speaker 3: are down quite heavily, and so I think that does
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  Speaker 3: start to highlight that, yes, there are some areas that
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  Speaker 3: are starting to see a slow pick up the primary sector.
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  Speaker 3: Are you seeing some more jobs coming through in the
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  Speaker 3: likes of finance, health, education, But other big job losses,
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  Speaker 3: like in construction and manufacturing, professional professional services, none of
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  Speaker 3: those picking up at anytime soon. And I think that's
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  Speaker 3: the challenge, is that some of those big areas that
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  Speaker 3: normally do take on a lot of jobs just no
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  Speaker 3: real new opportunities starting to show through. So tough out
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  Speaker 3: there still for many.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, totally. I mean in construction we obviously expected to
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  Speaker 2: pick up again, but manufacturing do you ever expect it
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  Speaker 2: to pick up or have we kind of have we
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  Speaker 2: got to the point now where most of the stuff
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  Speaker 2: that we've lost will never be replaced.
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  Speaker 3: Look, I think in some areas businesses will of course
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  Speaker 3: have been looking at you know, buying capital, you know,
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  Speaker 3: plant and equipment, machinery to try and do some of
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  Speaker 3: those roles into the future. So potentially there's not quite
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  Speaker 3: as much up, but also in some of those more
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  Speaker 3: niche sort of advanced manufacturing areas. Yes, I think New
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  Speaker 3: Zealand's got some opportunity there. It's actually probably the other
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  Speaker 3: way around. I mean, likes of construction. I'm not sure
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  Speaker 3: if those numbers necessarily pick up all that heavily. Yes,
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  Speaker 3: the government's doing more infrastructure investment and similar but we're
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  Speaker 3: not about to crash interest rates down to a level
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  Speaker 3: that would stimulate the highest building since the nineteen seventies.
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  Speaker 3: That's where we were a couple of years ago. That's
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  Speaker 3: why we've had such a job loss because we added
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  Speaker 3: so many before. Long story short, we're just trying to
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  Speaker 3: find that Goldilock zone for the economy at the moment,
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  Speaker 3: and that is a very very tough process when you're
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  Speaker 3: seeing these numbers of job losses coming through.
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  Speaker 2: Fair enough, now, Brad, did I see you on the
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  Speaker 2: news as being in China? Indeed, indeed, I am, is
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  Speaker 2: this a holiday? I mean, what am I asking?
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  Speaker 1: You?
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  Speaker 2: Never take a holiday? So what work related thing are
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  Speaker 2: you doing in China?
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  Speaker 3: It's a holiday of sorts hither. I mean, I'm just
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  Speaker 3: sort of here trying to see what the economy's doing.
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  Speaker 1: It.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, China is our largest trading partner and there's
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  Speaker 3: some pretty big opportunities. So having a bit of a
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  Speaker 3: look around anything from you know, what's happening with consumer
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  Speaker 3: trends and the fact that there's just so many new
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  Speaker 3: products all of a sudden, you know, coming out sort
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  Speaker 3: of every second week. Lots of new drinks and beverages,
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  Speaker 3: cheesy options and similar emerging. I mean, we talk a
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  Speaker 3: lot about butter and New Zealand at the moment, but
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  Speaker 3: over in China they're paying a lot more for what
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  Speaker 3: we're sending over so it's good to see a healthy
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  Speaker 3: export market occurring.
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  Speaker 2: To what's the coolest thing you see? What's the coolest
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  Speaker 2: new product you've seen?
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  Speaker 3: Oh, I'm trying to think. I mean, there have been
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  Speaker 3: some recent collabs where you know, your classic cheese slice,
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  Speaker 3: well now they've edited in a few extra flavors into them,
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  Speaker 3: you know, to sort of meet the market over here.
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  Speaker 3: I think there's something like spicy crayfish tomato, and there
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  Speaker 3: was one other of forgotten. But it's neat because you're
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  Speaker 3: seeing sort of product innovation right in front of you.
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  Speaker 3: New Zealand we're sort of on the bleeding edge of
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  Speaker 3: taking those new opportunities, you know, figuring out what local
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  Speaker 3: customers want and then sort of churning them out or
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  Speaker 3: working with partners to put out the good stuff. It's
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  Speaker 3: been quite exciting just to see everything. I mean, everything
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  Speaker 3: moves so so fast here. The tech and innovation is
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  Speaker 3: just hectic.
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  Speaker 2: Good stuff. Brad, Hey, thanks very much and safe travels back.
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  Speaker 2: That's Brad Olson, Infametrics, principle economist.
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