Latest / Strictly Business / The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw
Transcript
- 0:00You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
- 0:05The JSC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the five o'clock
- 0:09shadow.
- 0:09And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skulk Lowe, Portfolio Manager at PSG
- 0:14Wealth, Old Oak Division in Cape Town.
- 0:18Skulk, you weren't around last week because of a strategy session, and we'll
- 0:24talk about that later on briefly.
- 0:26But since we last spoke, there's been state of the nation.
- 0:29It's been State of the Union in the United States of America.
- 0:32And there's been the budget this afternoon in South Africa.
- 0:36So much going on.
- 0:36Please tell me about the budget.
- 0:39Well,
- 0:40let's start off by saying how unbelievably things can change in
- 0:46one year.
- 0:47I mean, we just go, let's talk about the budget.
- 0:50I mean, when we turned the clock back one year ago, I think you and I had two or
- 0:57three times where we had to say,
- 0:59let's talk about the budget.
- 1:01Wait.
- 1:03We can't yet.
- 1:05They can't get the budget over the line.
- 1:07It seems like a long time ago.
- 1:09Yes, exactly.
- 1:11It was cancelled, wasn't it?
- 1:13And that didn't exactly engender a lot of confidence in the international community.
- 1:15No, no, no, no.
- 1:17I mean, to put that in perspective, I mean, when you look at, let's just take
- 1:17our long bond rate.
- 1:19You can go and look at it over the past, let's call it 20 years.
- 1:22There's a few blips.
- 1:25we had the world financial crisis.
- 1:27That was a massive blip.
- 1:29you know, shot up.
- 1:30And that was an emerging market, not just an emerging market thing, but it's a world
- 1:34thing.
- 1:35Then we had the Nene gate.
- 1:36We had, ah, I can continue.
- 1:38I mean, we had the downgrade to junk status.
- 1:41That was March 2020.
- 1:45We had the gray listing.
- 1:49That was a kick up.
- 1:51And we tend to forget that a little bit more than a year ago, we had that kick up.
- 1:56I think.
- 1:57Long bond rates, we've been very close to 11%.
- 1:59Here we're sitting today.
- 2:01I can tell you exactly where they were on the day after Liberation Day, because that
- 2:06was in the evening.
- 2:08And then we opened up in the morning, went to 11.10% to 11.15%, because it was thinly
- 2:13traded.
- 2:15Nobody knew what button to press at the time.
- 2:17And that was the South African 10-year bond.
- 2:20And look at the thing now.
- 2:22It's extraordinary.
- 2:24Yeah, but there was some augmentation.
- 2:26That was sort of a...
- 2:27build up to deliberation day because we couldn't get the budget over the line and
- 2:33the rant weakened because everybody thought
- 2:35that's the end of GNU.
- 2:37GNU is done.
- 2:39It's history.
- 2:41It's not working.
- 2:43And we had the rant weakening.
- 2:45We had the yields shot up.
- 2:47Then eventually we had the very lukewarm budget speech.
- 2:47We didn't have that original VAT hikes and those kind of things.
- 2:53But it was sort of a lukewarm.
- 2:54It was uh Not a very positive one.
- 2:57You said it.
- 2:58We had Liberation Day, and yields went up over 11%.
- 3:02Got very, very close to that 20% to the dollar mark again.
- 3:06And here we're sitting.
- 3:07And the all share was below 100,000, Skunk.
- 3:10There we go.
- 3:11There we go.
- 3:11And as I look at my screen now, you've got to put that into context, because people
- 3:17that have been away for a while and are suddenly listening to us for the first
- 3:19time.
- 3:21Yes, it was below 100,000, and Skunk will give us exactly where it was budget day
- 3:23last year.
- 3:25But I, for now, will tell you exactly where it is at the moment.
- 3:26It's nearly 127,000 for the all-share index of the JSC.
- 3:31And that's one and a quarter percent up just today.
- 3:34It doesn't stop.
- 3:34The round is 1588.
- 3:36Where was the round a year ago?
- 3:37Skalk is also going to show us because he's got seven screens in front of him.
- 3:42And he fiddles around and he'll be able to tell us.
- 3:45But anyway.
- 3:46I'm fiddling already, man.
- 3:48I'm fiddling already.
- 3:50So the JSC all-share.
- 3:53That was trading at 87,800 exactly a year ago.
- 3:58So it's 30,000 points higher.
- 3:59Yeah.
- 4:00No, 40,000 points higher.
- 4:0140,000 because remember it's more than
- 4:0840% higher.
- 4:09And if we look at the rant, look at the rant.
- 4:12I mean, this is actually crazy.
- 4:14Liberation Day.
- 4:15Well, we'll get to Liberation Day.
- 4:16Exactly a year ago, the rant was trading.
- 4:21I feel I need to give a drum roll.
- 4:24Do I have to sit down for this one?
- 4:2718 Rand, 37.
- 4:30Then Liberation Day happened, and it went, well,
- 4:36on that specific day, went, oh, closed at 19 Rand, 40.
- 4:41So from 1940 to 1588.
- 4:45I mean, okay, Liberation Day, well, it's less than a year, because Liberation Day
- 4:50was the first week in April.
- 4:52of course, April the 2nd it was, because he didn't want it to be on April the 1st,
- 4:55for obvious reasons.
- 4:57It's extraordinary.
- 5:00That's how quickly things go.
- 5:02But you know, I've often had this conversation.
- 5:04And I've often had conversations stating that the African economy is a very,
- 5:10very usually when people invest in gold mines, that's sort of my reference point.
- 5:18Why somebody would invest in one gold mine rather than another is sometimes a gearing
- 5:24effect.
- 5:26How are they...
- 5:28you know sell their gold forward uh you know what's the gearing effect um and so
- 5:32africa is that type of thing
- 5:34i think africa is a scenario we've seen it in in the mid 2000s where things really
- 5:39don't look good for
- 5:41for the economy don't look for good for the country and then just a few small
- 5:46things happen and and and past
- 5:4812 months we've often said that small things is usually big things because we're
- 5:53the largest producer of platinum in the world with the second
- 5:55largest palladium Radis Rhodium with its eighth largest producer of gold.
- 5:57You know, when you see happening what happened,
- 6:02that suddenly have a massive effect on our current account.
- 6:05Suddenly these mines, and we've seen some of them reported today, suddenly these
- 6:11mines, I mean, Volterra,
- 6:13look at that result.
- 6:15I mean, that's just cruel.
- 6:17Well, we'll look at those in a moment when we get to the Stock Exchange News Service.
- 6:18We will look at them.
- 6:19I haven't looked at the budget today.
- 6:20I've got something called Budget Indifference.
- 6:22I go into a coma on Budget Day and I lie down with slices of cucumber over my
- 6:29eyes and I forget about it.
- 6:30Because I just need to read what happens and look at what happens in the markets to
- 6:35know what happened.
- 6:37This time last year, absolutely nothing happened.
- 6:39This year, a 13.5 basis point fall in yield on the South African 10-year.
- 6:43That's the first thing I look at, 7.805%.
- 6:47It's a 1.7% fall in the yield bond prices.
- 6:50soaring international and local investors doing well the all-share index doing
- 6:57fantastically well but you've brought in the the
- 6:59diggers factor here uh people that dig things out of the ground have come out
- 7:04with numbers you mentioned valteria we'll talk about that later that's
- 7:06boosting the all-share index but goodness me he must have had a smile on his face
- 7:11that deliverer of the budget today no
- 7:13it was it was one of the better budgets in many many years because it was it was
- 7:18really good news all around.
- 7:20And I think it's not just in terms of, but let's look at the fiscal position.
- 7:26I mean, when you look at, I think when we look at it in the
- 7:302025, which is now pretty much two years ago already,
- 7:35when you look at that medium term budget, they were talking about the 2028,
- 7:412029, there should be a budget deficit of around 9%. So things were fairly bleak and
- 7:48not looking good.
- 7:50Today, when you look at the consolidated budget deficit, we're looking at a 5%,
- 7:55about 4%
- 7:57deficit.
- 7:59Well, that's 4% of GDP for 2026.
- 8:01But now they expect it to narrow to 3.1% by 2028,
- 8:052029.
- 8:08From, let's call it a year and a half ago, it was 9% of, the deficit should have been
- 8:159% of GDP.
- 8:17Now we're looking at 3.1%.
- 8:17to That's massive.
- 8:19Total debt to GDP.
- 8:20I remember when most economists globally were saying,
- 8:27we see what you're talking about, aiming for these,
- 8:31let's call it 80% by 2026,
- 8:352027.
- 8:39But hell no, we see you surpass or getting close to that 100% mark as well.
- 8:44Well, total debt to GDP is down to 77.3%.
- 8:4877.3% A lot of countries would die for that kind of number.
- 8:54I know, I know.
- 8:55And that is really, really good.
- 8:57That's the meat.
- 8:58That's for South Africa.
- 9:01Yes, I think our total taxpayer, the base is still too small,
- 9:06too small a percentage of the country, look after the rest of the country.
- 9:12But the one thing that the mid-2000s has taught me as well is Thanks.
- 9:17You know, you need, how does a song go?
- 9:21Your neck bone is connected to the shoulder bone, the shoulder bone to the
- 9:26backbone.
- 9:28Showing your age.
- 9:30You're showing your age.
- 9:32And the type of music you like as well, Skull.
- 9:34Both of which we can skirt over at the moment.
- 9:34But anyway, what are you talking about?
- 9:36Them bones, Them bones.
- 9:38That was the song.
- 9:40But anyways, I mean, what I'm getting to is eventually.
- 9:44We had a similar scenario in that mid-2000s.
- 9:46You often bring up the CRB Commodity Index into play.
- 9:49I did some work last week where I look at, just look at the CRB Commodity Index.
- 9:56When that improved, there's sort of a...
- 9:59massive, massive correlation with GDP growth on the growth of the CRB, or just
- 10:05commodities in general.
- 10:07But I'll use the CRB because you love it as well.
- 10:09Also, when you take the CRB commodity index and as it improves, you always see
- 10:15an improvement in the RAN.
- 10:17So then my question is, to all the people that's worried,
- 10:19if you're worried and say we're nearing the end of this commodity type of cycle,
- 10:24well,
- 10:24then maybe you should be a bit worried.
- 10:27I don't think we're there yet.
- 10:28We're not trading at the highs that we've been in 2008 yet.
- 10:32And it's been predominantly driven by some of these precious metals.
- 10:36The rest of the commodities haven't really followed suit yet.
- 10:40So when that happened, naturally, that won't be good for inflation.
- 10:45But over that same period, mid-2000s,
- 10:48we had an unemployment rate in 2003 of 31%,
- 10:55very similar to the levels that we're currently seeing.
- 10:58But by 2009 or 2008, we'll be sitting with an unemployment rate of 21%.
- 11:05And that's where I say you connect the dots.
- 11:08Oh, I see.
- 11:09Where things start becoming and improving.
- 11:12So, yes, the budget speech today.
- 11:15I'm just going to run it very quickly.
- 11:17Very quickly.
- 11:19I would say this is for individuals because we continue to look at corporates
- 11:23and those kind of things.
- 11:25It's just going to get way too long.
- 11:26Very good.
- 11:27Very, very good for individuals.
- 11:31We've seen the tax-free investment plans.
- 11:34That was a nice one.
- 11:36Sort of expect it.
- 11:37I think there was a lot of rumors that the annual 36,000 rand should be increased.
- 11:43There was talks, people guessed or sort of bet on a 40,000 rand.
- 11:48Now it's been pushed up to 46,000 rand.
- 11:50I thought that was a positive sign to promote savings within South Africa.
- 11:57We've had no bracket creep, so to speak, this year.
- 12:02Remember, for the past three years, they didn't adjust the tax rates,
- 12:10but they kept the brackets unchanged.
- 12:12So that inflationary effect, well, there was no inflationary effect.
- 12:17This year, they did adjust to inflation, so that went up.
- 12:20I think that is positive.
- 12:23When you look at your...
- 12:26your annual deduction for your retirement funds.
- 12:29Now, remember, it's usually the maximum of 27.5%
- 12:33or 350,000, whatever is the highest.
- 12:37That's typically for your retirement, your annuity, your provident fund, those type
- 12:42of things.
- 12:42That was, the maximum was always set at 350,000.
- 12:46That's been increased to 430,000.
- 12:49Again, a really, really positive sign and sort of promoting.
- 12:54promoting the the africans to to to to save um the the the well let's call it the
- 13:01the the annual exclusion for capital um gains or losses that's always been 40 000
- 13:08rent i mean this
- 13:10350 000 and 40 000 has been these levels for
- 13:13i might say as long as i can remember but for a very very long time they've adjusted
- 13:20this from forty thousand to fifty thousand
- 13:22right just meaning that for the listeners out there don't understand this usually
- 13:25when you make a
- 13:27capital it's called a profit
- 13:30um you usually take your profit and let's say it is below 40 000 rand for that
- 13:37specific financial year then
- 13:39you will pay no capital gains tax anything above 40 000 now they've they've they've
- 13:44increased that from 40 000 rand to
- 13:4650 000 and here's a biggie Yeah,
- 13:46that's not a lot of money in most people's lives that are in the business of making
- 13:52money through trading or through
- 13:54buying and selling assets.
- 13:56But still, a step in the right direction, Scott.
- 13:58So you've got a biggie coming up.
- 14:00The biggie to me is also one that's been unchanged.
- 14:02That's the exclusion of capital gain or loss of the disposal of your primary
- 14:07residence.
- 14:09Now, Lindsay, you will know this has been 2 million Rand for many, many, many years.
- 14:13And the property market has got ahead of itself compared to that, of course.
- 14:17Yeah.
- 14:18And they didn't just kick it up with, I don't know, 200,000 rand.
- 14:21They kicked it up from 2 million rand to 3 million rand.
- 14:24So I thought that was also a very, very positive sign.
- 14:29So I would say that to me was the most important sort of changes within the
- 14:36budget speech for today.
- 14:38Oh, yeah, and then the tax-free donations.
- 14:40That went up from...
- 14:41From 100,000 rent to 150,000 rent.
- 14:44Very nice.
- 14:45So good news all round.
- 14:46You have to say a little bit about corporates.
- 14:47Maybe take the first one or two points that you found to be really positive for
- 14:53the South African corporate world.
- 14:55Oh, what's it?
- 14:57Companies, the minimum, let's call it the minimum effective tax rate.
- 15:00I think that's maybe the one I'm going to run through.
- 15:04I mean, trust, that changed at, it's unchanged at 36%.
- 15:11Individuals, still 18% and special trust, 18%.
- 15:15And then companies, 21.6%.
- 15:17So, yeah, I don't think it's been when I look at the broader let's call it budget,
- 15:24there's more money back to individuals this year.
- 15:30And I thought that was really good.
- 15:32Just before we get on to the results coming out today, has that had a positive
- 15:38effect on other sectors?
- 15:40For example, the retailers,
- 15:41because if it's a consumer-friendly or rather a people-friendly budget,
- 15:47which it sounds as though it is, has that had a knock-on effect on certain sectors
- 15:53on the JSC that are...
- 15:55linked to that type of person or that type of spending activity?
- 15:58It was an extremely interesting day on the JS, and we'll chat about that.
- 16:03But to answer your question fairly shortly and bluntly, no.
- 16:09It's been a crazy day because it's been predominantly driven by resources.
- 16:15But if you take the resources out of the market today, it's been a pretty negative
- 16:21day.
- 16:22not really okay well we'll come to that and let's have a look now never mind why
- 16:27because we've seen this
- 16:29big improvement in the currency because I think that the market looked at this and
- 16:35said well this was a positive budget and it'll be
- 16:37positive you know for South Africa and usually
- 16:38when you see that your currency is the share price for your country and we've
- 16:45seen that improvement in the currency today but that wasn't actually good for
- 16:51the market that was interesting Okay, well,
- 16:53maybe that'll unwind tomorrow if people got so excited about certain things.
- 16:55There's been so many results recently.
- 16:56I mean, just look at last night after the market closed, you had BidCore coming out.
- 17:01Also, no, that was it.
- 17:03BidCore after the market closed last night.
- 17:05Today, being punished by 2.5%.
- 17:08This morning, we've had Blue Label, ACI, Motus, Mustek.
- 17:13And then if you go up to about 9 o'clock, those are the 7 o'clock.
- 17:197 o'clock was 9 o'clock.
- 17:20It's a small company here by the name of, come on, Valtteri Platinum Limited.
- 17:28Full year results announcement for the year ended 31st of December 2025.
- 17:33You look along the right hand side, it gives you the share price and the
- 17:39percentage share price move on the day.
- 17:4110.02% in the green, Skulk.
- 17:42Must have been good numbers.
- 17:44Yeah, that's the second.
- 17:48Let's call it, if you look at your top performers and worst performers, which
- 17:53you'll read us a little bit later.
- 17:55I will do.
- 17:57But that was one of the top performers, position number two for today.
- 18:01Yeah, Volterra, what a full year.
- 18:06Printing money?
- 18:08Absolutely.
- 18:09Absolutely.
- 18:10When you sit in a position where you start giving larger dividends.
- 18:14And now start giving special dividends as well.
- 18:17And just to put it in perspective, when you look at the total dividend of 45 rand
- 18:24a share, because for the listeners that didn't read this update,
- 18:26it was a 25 rand base dividend that was announced, but also a
- 18:3020 rand special dividend.
- 18:32That's 45 rand.
- 18:33That's pretty much 71% of the headline earnings that they're paying out.
- 18:37It's quite a good thing.
- 18:38I mean, I spoke to somebody called Wayne McCurry.
- 18:41over the last few years before he retired, had been investing in the PGM companies.
- 18:47And it had a pretty rotten time, let's face it.
- 18:50I mean, as all PGM investors did.
- 18:53And I'm so pleased that they're being rewarded now because the cyclicality of
- 18:59resources means you go through the
- 19:01worst of times and then you go through the best of times.
- 19:03And these are the best of times.
- 19:04It's just a question of how long they'll last and how well these companies will
- 19:08manage it.
- 19:08Will they go out and be expansive and shine by.
- 19:11obscure Canadian mines or northern-based mines in Finland or something like
- 19:18that?
- 19:19Or will they just hunker down, get on with it, with their beautiful resources that
- 19:25they've got, as Donald Trump would say,
- 19:27and keep churning out the money, paying the dividends, and everyone's happy?
- 19:30I hope they're responsible with it.
- 19:33Yeah, that's an important point because you're 100% right.
- 19:39Again, we were talking about how things can change.
- 19:44in one year.
- 19:45And we refer to the budget speeds.
- 19:47But I mean, I think the team at Volterra is looking at it and saying, wait a
- 19:54minute, Scott, that's not just the budget, that's us.
- 19:56When you turn the clock back, February last year, I mean, we're talking about
- 20:01taking the clock back February last year,
- 20:03what was the currency and what was this, what was that?
- 20:05When you look at the platinum price exactly a year ago, 25 of February, 2025.
- 20:11The platinum price closed that day, it's $970 per ounce.
- 20:17Today, it's currently trading close to $2,300 per ounce.
- 20:22So that's crazy.
- 20:24And why is this significant?
- 20:26And they mentioned in their trading update, their financial report,
- 20:32is this earnings is really supported by this 22%
- 20:37increase in the RAND PGM basket.
- 20:40price for their products.
- 20:44But also, they mentioned a five billion rand cost saving.
- 20:51Why?
- 20:52Because remember, as mentioned, if you turn the clock back one year ago, they
- 20:57were sitting worried.
- 20:59I mean, they're sitting with a $900 platinum price.
- 21:02They worried.
- 21:03I mean, because if you take the platinum and palladium and brodium, those prices
- 21:10for that previous year or two.
- 21:12It flatlined.
- 21:14It stayed at these $900 levels.
- 21:15And when you look at the all-insustainable cost, the all-insustainable cost for this,
- 21:21let's call it this year, was around,
- 21:25let's call it $987 per ounce.
- 21:31Then when the platinum price is trading at
- 21:34$970, $980 per ounce, you're worried.
- 21:39You go back.
- 21:40And you say you cut any expense we don't need.
- 21:43You switch the light off when you leave the room.
- 21:46You make sure the taps are closed.
- 21:49You reuse a spade five times.
- 21:52But hell, we need to save some cost.
- 21:56And then, you know, the underlying commodity prices moved the way it did.
- 22:00So you should say you get a perfect storm.
- 22:04But Valterra, they add the inverse.
- 22:05They add the… Absolutely perfect environment where they came off the stress
- 22:11levels, they did cost cuttings,
- 22:13and then bang.
- 22:15Yeah, it's a positive sign.
- 22:17I love the fact that they're handing back 71% of the headline earnings back to
- 22:21shareholders.
- 22:21It means that they're not seeing a lot of opportunities at these current levels to
- 22:27go and buy other companies.
- 22:29And rather than doing that, give the money back to the shareholders.
- 22:30They'll find something to go and buy.
- 22:32Yes, indeed.
- 22:32And on that note of being responsible with windfalls.
- 22:36Let's hope that the Treasury is responsible with its windfall as well.
- 22:39The budget today, I think pretty conservative, but they're giving enough to
- 22:45keep us interested.
- 22:47You sound very excited.
- 22:49But also,
- 22:51the whole country's got to take advantage of the Valterra-style bonanza that we're
- 22:57having at the moment.
- 22:59I mean, look, they've got three major mining complexes in South Africa, in the
- 23:03Bushveld, right?
- 23:05I mean, let's say the Rustenburg area.
- 23:07We're talking about special dividends and dividends, but what about the corner shop
- 23:10owner?
- 23:11There's a lot of people now with a lot more money in their pocket and they're
- 23:17working more shifts and maybe people are being employed as well.
- 23:19That has a knock-on effect.
- 23:20It's a fantastic effect as well and you've got to take advantage of it.
- 23:23The local municipality must do something about it and with the windfall taxes and
- 23:27everything,
- 23:27fix the roads and the water and everything.
- 23:31So make sure that...
- 23:35The new windfall, as I said, is used judiciously.
- 23:39Yeah, I totally agree.
- 23:40You've got the velocity of money.
- 23:42How many times that money goes through the economy?
- 23:45If you don't have money, money doesn't go through the economy.
- 23:47But when things tend to go well and there's more money, that money goes.
- 23:51And as you mentioned, the guys working at Valterra, they go to the local shops,
- 23:57Sotfasa shops.
- 23:59I mean, we've seen the likes of Supergroup yesterday and Motus today.
- 24:03Suddenly they go and say, well, maybe now I can afford to go and buy that new car.
- 24:10And that's the knock-on effect.
- 24:11And that's what I mentioned earlier.
- 24:12South Africa is such a finely tuned economy that small changes could have
- 24:19quite a
- 24:21large effect on our economy.
- 24:21I still think when I look at the IMFs and also the World Bank's outlook,
- 24:27they've still got South Africa on a 1.5% growth rate for 2026.
- 24:33It's very early in the year and maybe very dangerous.
- 24:38I don't want to give it the commentator's curse, but I can already see, I think
- 24:42they're going to be on the short side.
- 24:44I think they're going to be on the lower side and looking at how things are
- 24:48progressing.
- 24:50Don't be surprised if that's beaten quite handsomely this year.
- 24:52We haven't got time for the State of the Union address, but I'll summarize it.
- 24:56Donald Trump is the greatest president in the history of the world.
- 25:00The United States economy is doing better than it's ever done.
- 25:03It's the greatest economic turnaround in the world.
- 25:05Gas prices were $6 a gallon under Biden.
- 25:09No, they weren't.
- 25:09They were just above $5 a barrel.
- 25:11Gas prices now in some places, including Iowa, are $1.85 a gallon.
- 25:15No, they're not.
- 25:17The lowest you can find in Iowa anywhere on the internet or with AI is $2.37.
- 25:23And he said he went to see these places.
- 25:24No, he didn't.
- 25:25He was behind the bulletproof limousine.
- 25:28So he's lying again.
- 25:29So it was the normal state of the union address, Skulk.
- 25:34And the only thing different about it was it was the longest in history, one hour
- 25:39and 37 minutes.
- 25:41I got up at three o'clock in the morning, four o'clock in the morning your time.
- 25:44I lay down on the sofa to watch this, and at quarter past five I woke up and I
- 25:49didn't know where I was.
- 25:51I nodded off.
- 25:52I nodded off after he brought on the U.S.
- 25:55men's hockey team who were all biting their gold medals, and everyone was
- 26:01singing USA,
- 26:03I turned off literally myself.
- 26:06Scott, the only thing I want to talk about next week is the dislocation in the tech
- 26:11market, because I was looking at a few graphs.
- 26:13And I looked at Microsoft, bear market.
- 26:15I looked at IBM, bear market.
- 26:16I looked at Tesla on the verge of being in a technical bear market, which is 20% from
- 26:22the high to where it's trading now.
- 26:24Nearly there.
- 26:26And there's a lot of sort of, if you can call them,
- 26:28old school tech stocks that are now being shunted aside because AI is potentially
- 26:33eating their lunch,
- 26:35as they say.
- 26:37Very, very interesting.
- 26:39So if you're a tech investor, you don't just buy tech.
- 26:41You have to buy proper tech.
- 26:43And we'll see if… the new leading it is going to continue to be leading it because
- 26:45their results out
- 26:47later tonight skulk are you going to be watching those
- 26:49quite closely yeah no no definitely i think that's this is going to be a massive
- 26:55one few things that i'm going to look at
- 26:57i'm definitely going to look at you know did they beat or not didn't beat i mean
- 27:02that's the first thing but i
- 27:04think the most important thing i'm going to be looking at in the
- 27:04video is is the inventories um that was one that with a with a previous quarter
- 27:10update
- 27:12which was quite interesting.
- 27:14It seemed like they had more stock.
- 27:15They were holding more stock than the market really expected.
- 27:19And I think this is sort of going to indicate,
- 27:22are they holding back stock to try to drive up prices?
- 27:27Is there some Chinese accounting happening here?
- 27:31Yeah, you mentioned it.
- 27:32I mean, it's a big conglomerate, Microsoft.
- 27:36Today, trading at levels, yes, we've got a bit of a bounce, but When you look at
- 27:42Microsoft,
- 27:42it's now trading at levels last seen in 2024.
- 27:46Yeah, we had a little bit of a blip last year with Liberation Day, but that was
- 27:50short-lived.
- 27:52We're now trading at levels that Microsoft's last traded in January
- 27:552024.
- 27:58Yes.
- 27:59So, interesting.
- 27:59As I say, bear markets, it could be presenting itself as a great opportunity,
- 28:05still a fantastic company.
- 28:07But is the traditional software business now being usurped by?
- 28:09developments in AI.
- 28:11We don't know yet, but that's the rumor out there.
- 28:13I know one particular fund manager, who's of course a holder of Microsoft, says, no,
- 28:18nonsense, and this is why.
- 28:20And I'll be having that podcast quite soon.
- 28:22But anyway, let's have a look at some market values now, and start with the
- 28:27mighty RONT.
- 28:271589, the dollar round, very good indeed.
- 28:30That's a half a percent fall for the US dollar.
- 28:34Euro dollar is 117.90.
- 28:38So let's call it British pound against the round, though.
- 28:40Twenty one fifty euro round is eighteen seventy four,
- 28:44which is a third of a percent fall for the euro onto the gold price.
- 28:47Now, of course, let's have a look at that.
- 28:50You know, we've gone through a whole podcast without mentioning gold, Skunk.
- 28:55It's not too late.
- 28:56It's not over yet.
- 28:57I knew it.
- 28:59Fifty one eighty the gold price.
- 29:02It's I think if this is maybe a bit slow.
- 29:04But anyway, I've got fifty one eighty the spot price.
- 29:06which is $32 up, two-thirds of a percent.
- 29:10Platinum is up 5.4%.
- 29:13Sorry, that was a nervous laugh.
- 29:15$23.05.
- 29:17So Veltere are getting the double whammy today.
- 29:20It's got the great results, and it's got surging metal prices.
- 29:23Palladium up 9.2%. Can you, Adam and Evett?
- 29:27$18.61, $156.50 to the good.
- 29:32Rhodium, I don't know, but Skalk is going to look on his screen now.
- 29:35and tell me while I'm rattling through another couple of commodity prices on my
- 29:41CRB index screen.
- 29:43Notably, the energy complex where Brent crude oil is down very slightly, $70.71,
- 29:47and
- 29:49West Texas crude is $65.42, which is down a third of a percent.
- 29:53Copper is $5.95 and a bit, which is up
- 29:580.4% in New York.
- 30:00What else have we got going here?
- 30:02I mentioned the South African bond market earlier on.
- 30:047.805%, the close, massive move, 13.5 basis points down for the yield.
- 30:10U.S.
- 30:1110-year is 4.05%.
- 30:13It wasn't that long ago it was 4.30%, and I was barking on about the U.S. bond
- 30:19yields being one of my trades of the year.
- 30:21In other words, the bond yields would rise, in my opinion.
- 30:23They're stuck in a range between just about 4% to 4.30%, right at the bottom.
- 30:29and testing.
- 30:30testing my patience actually.
- 30:31S&P 500.
- 30:33March futures are 6935, which is up half a percent.
- 30:38US, and I've done that one, Bitcoin price.
- 30:4167,200, which is up 5%.
- 30:45It did go below 63,000 yesterday.
- 30:48I was watching it.
- 30:49And yeah, that's my numbers.
- 30:51Did you get that rhodium price, Skulk?
- 30:53Yeah, it's up.
- 30:54It's $11,850 per ounce.
- 30:57It's also up 1.3%.
- 30:59Also crazy how this, how it's actually just suddenly moved from these.
- 31:03If you look at one year ago, rhodium.
- 31:06Because remember, I don't have the graph in front of me,
- 31:10but we went to something like $30,000 or $40,000 per ounce five, six years ago,
- 31:17and then went all the way down to the $4,000, $5,000 mark.
- 31:22That's where we were trading a year ago, $4,000-something dollars per ounce.
- 31:27Today, trading more than double that, close to triple that, $11,850.
- 31:32Fantastic.
- 31:33Let's have a look at the JSC now.
- 31:34Volterra, top of the list, 10.3% higher.
- 31:37African Rainbow Minerals up 5.4%.
- 31:40Northern up 5%.
- 31:41Goldfields up 5%.
- 31:42Impala Platinum 4.7% to the good.
- 31:45On the downside, tell me about SPAR.
- 31:48Why is it down 10%?
- 31:49Is that an ex-diff?
- 31:51No, no, no.
- 31:52I wish it was an ex-diff.
- 31:53Was that results?
- 31:55No, I remember they've been in the news lately with the CEO just stepping down.
- 32:03sort of out of the blue and it's just been yeah it's just been under pressure,
- 32:09under pressure constant pressure I liked spa when I was in South Africa I always
- 32:16liked to go to the spa well my
- 32:18local spa was very well run very friendly chap and everything
- 32:19and the quality of the food was good but clearly investors don't care about the
- 32:25quality of the food today Richemont down
- 32:274.4% Motus down 4.3% after their numbers Sassl down 4.1% you
- 32:31But it's still 137 Rand a share or just below.
- 32:34Goodness me.
- 32:35The good, cool, skulk low.
- 32:37Mondi down 4%.
- 32:40Anything outside of those?
- 32:43Yeah, maybe just a quick mention on Blue Label.
- 32:48Yes, they came out this morning, didn't they?
- 32:54Yeah, it was an interesting one.
- 32:56I'm not going to go in too deep.
- 32:58They've got a very interesting venture, and listeners should go and read up on
- 33:04their new blue energy trading unit.
- 33:06But basically it just comes down to they've seen a massive gap where they feel
- 33:11the amount of
- 33:13electricity ESCOM is selling or providing to the municipalities are adequate.
- 33:17The problem is the municipalities are not getting paid for the electricity they're
- 33:23distributing.
- 33:25And they've got a very interesting new venture is how they're going to help these
- 33:27municipalities.
- 33:29getting in the money and how they're going to enrich themselves.
- 33:31We're talking about massive, massive, they're talking about, you know,
- 33:36close to an extra 19 billion rand in revenue that these municipalities should
- 33:42be recovering, 40%.
- 33:44And they've got a new product that's going to help them,
- 33:47help their shareholders as well as the municipalities.
- 33:51And that helped the share price naturally being the top performer for today, just
- 33:57over 12% for today.
- 33:59Very good indeed.
- 34:01Skalk, you'll now give us the indices before we close this.
- 34:02Very interesting chat.
- 34:02The JSE today closed at 120 up.
- 34:08We just talked about it earlier.
- 34:10But there goes my screen.
- 34:12Oh, yeah, it's back.
- 34:13126,742 points.
- 34:19That's up 1.3% for today.
- 34:22JSE top 40, 118,703 points.
- 34:26Also up.
- 34:271.47%.
- 34:29That was naturally driven by resources, up 4.82%. Industrials, that was down
- 34:360.14%. Financials, interesting, in a stronger RAND environment, actually down
- 34:430.98%.
- 34:45And even the asset property index, that was down 1% for today.
- 34:46Very good indeed.
- 34:47I was going to close it here, but I need to know, I've never been to something
- 34:52called a strategy session.
- 34:54If so, after about an hour and a half.
- 34:55despite the fact that it's probably really good stuff, an hour and a half is about my
- 34:59limit.
- 35:00Yours was three days long at PSG Wealth.
- 35:05Was it constructive?
- 35:07Was the mood different to previous years, for example?
- 35:11Yeah, now, Lindsay, that's, I mean, I'm not going to keep you busy with what's
- 35:16happening behind closed doors,
- 35:18but what was evident, very similar to what we've seen in the budget,
- 35:22there's definitely a renewed optimism.
- 35:26amongst, we can see our clients.
- 35:29And there's a new optimism in the financial market as well, financial
- 35:33advisors.
- 35:35So, yeah, and I think the move today by the
- 35:39Minister of Finance definitely supported it.
- 35:42And, yes, I must say I'm really optimistic for the remainder of 2026.
- 35:48Yeah, bring it on.
- 35:49Yes, indeed.
- 35:49I can't believe that everything was positive today.
- 35:52Literally everything was positive today.
- 35:54If this was an animal like a bird or a dog or something like that,
- 35:59I'd take it to a taxidermist and have it stuffed and put it on the mantelpiece.
- 36:03For posterity's sake, Skulk.
- 36:05Skulk Lowe is very much not going to be on the mantelpiece.
- 36:08He'll be with us same time next week.
- 36:11He's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth Old Oak in Cape Town, and that was the 5
- 36:16o'clock shadow.
- 36:18The views and opinions expressed in these podcasts are those of Lindsay Williams and
- 36:22various contributors.
- 36:24and do not reflect the policy, position, or opinion of any other agency,
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- 36:30or company associated with StrictlyBusinessPodcast.com.
- 36:33Assumptions made on the analyses are not reflective of the position of any other
- 36:40entity other than the speaker or the author.
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