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NFL Survivor Pool Week 10 Review | 2025 Strategy, Picks & Lessons Learned · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yah, all, system's gone clear.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: We're lifting what is going on? Everyone, This is sheets
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: and welcome to the continuation of the Survivor Pool journey.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be reviewing what we talked about for a
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: week one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Uh.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about the process, talk about the results.
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: We're going to take a look at a couple of
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: the bigger pools out there and see what type of
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: availability there is a little bit of a tiny preview
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: maybe of this coming week, and then tomorrow we're going
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: to do the preview show of the premium show where
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: we are really starting to get into this right. So
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: some of these pools are already going into doubles starting now,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: and the big ship in Nation Pool, two hundred and
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: fifty thousand Guarantee, is going to doubles in week twelve.
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: So we're really we're really doing a great job with this.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: And this is the time where we spent this whole
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: season learning how to set up your ticket, setting up
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: your entry. Now we're at a time where if you
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: have any of any of these bad boys left, you
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: could start dropping some wood on people, so to speak.
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: But we'll get into that let's review this past week.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: It was a very interesting week and there were a
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: couple of lessons to be learned that I talked about
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: last week. Now, first things first is this idea that
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: you always need to trust what's in front of you
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: and trust the numbers. And I said this all the
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: way back from week before week one, that you don't
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: want to get emotionally involved, you don't want to get
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: attached to teams, and you don't want any of your
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: biases to kind of, you know, overrun you. And one
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: of the things that we talked about was this Denver
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: play heading into last week, and we talked about it
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: in the discord, the idea that we've been saving Denver
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: for weeks and weeks and weeks because we thought that
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: there were going to be a smash play in week ten.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: And there were a couple of comments in discord leading
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: up to it and saying, you know what, we saved
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: them all this time, that why would we not play them.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: So the point it was this, we did end up
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: saying they were the best play by a lot. But
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: the process, you always need to look at what's in
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: front of you, need to reassess the numbers every single week.
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Just because you thought something was going to look a
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: certain way doesn't necessarily mean it's going it actually looks
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: that way when you get there. So it's very important
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: that even though you're planning and you're mapping, and you're
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: pushing stuff out and you're you think you know what's
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: going to happen, you still need to deal with what's
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: in front of you. And it's kind of like those
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: that idea of this, like with DFS, I played this
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: guy every other freaking day. I mean, how could I
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: not play him now, you know what I mean? Or
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: I've owned this stock every freaking day and now it's
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: got a sixty. Why wouldn't I Why wouldn't I want
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: to now? Or something like that. Don't think of life
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: that way, don't think of opportunities that way. Think of
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: what what's in front of you, and draw on all
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: your experiences and all of your knowledge and continue to
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: make decisions, not just follow through on decisions you made
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: in the past. Maybe just maybe those decisions need to
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: be reassessed. All right, Maybe that's a little more life
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: advice than than usual. Nonetheless, so we ranked everything here
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: by ev and this is looking at last week and
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: this was a This was a really really good week
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: to be part of this stream, okay, and really really
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: good week to learn, you know, to follow through on
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: the stuff you've been learning this whole season. The first
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: thing we looked at is these two high EV teams
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: are all these evs above one. And the first thing
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: that we discussed was that Buffalo was a terrible play.
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: We thought to day, just way too much future value
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: in week fourteen, Weeks eighteen, Week sixteen, and even though
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: the EV was strong, this was one where you had
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: to fade them. And sometimes the survivor gods reward you
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: and sometimes they punish you. And this was one where
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: we were rewarded in fine style because you know, a
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: good amount of people took Buffalo, and Buffalo went down
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: to the you know, to the thumbnail sketch Miami from
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: this stream, Miami Dolphins. So that was just absolutely amazing.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Couldn't couldn't, couldn't have asked for it for better. We've
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: explained it right, Hopefully most of you listened, and all
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: the Buffalo people just got crushed Detroit, even though they
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: had good EV. First of all, it was good EV
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: because probably very few people had them available, but some
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: of them did okay, but we still thought that Week
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: twelve was way too big of a spot to pass
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: them up now, so we got rid of that Indianapolis
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: nobody had available. It didn't make a big deal. We
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: did agree that Denver was clearly the best play okay, singles,
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: doubles all all throughout. It was a good combination of
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: good ev and almost no future value. It was basically
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: a survivor in Nirvana and you just had to play
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: them all over the place. So if you had Denver available,
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: that was the big recommendation. And now hopefully everybody unloaded
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: them because they listen. They weren't great, but this is
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: the way survivor works. They were great enough. Then what
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: became tricky was what to do with your if you
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: had a if you didn't have Denver somehow, And it's
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: possible because there were times you could have used Denver.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: What if you didn't have Denver somehow, what's the next
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: thing that you can do in both singles and doubles.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: We'll get the doubles in a second, but it was
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: very hard to find a good play in singles, and
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: I think at the end of the day we agreed
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: on Seattle as being the next best if in fact,
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: you somehow didn't have Denver available. So I thought that
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: that was probably the next one, and then I guess
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: maybe what did I say? Detroit would be the one
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: after that, But we were presuming that most people had
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: at least one of those available, So singles we did very,
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: very nicely. We got out of Dodge with doubles. This
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: is where, honestly, I think that we did the best. Okay,
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: because you know, you have to to some degree trust
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: these numbers, and getting into last week, so many people
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: in Discord channel and myself was just presuming that you
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: know what, we're just gonna take. We end up if
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: you don't have Denver, we're just gonna play Carolina. Okay,
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: because Carolina was a perfect play. They had almost no
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: future value, they were gonna be a decent favorite over
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: the Saints, and and that was just gonna be the
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: option to play in in in contest with doubles going forward. Okay,
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: it made a lot of sense. But Okay, as I mentioned,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: when a team is one hundred percent available, that information
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: is also very available to everybody, so everybody was able
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: to see that. And then when the uh, the pick
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: percentages came out to projections, and we actually ran the
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: EV with our tool here it's it revealed that Carolina
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: was actually a terrible play, you know, And I tried,
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: and then we told you can rewind to last week's Wednesday.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: I said, and listen, you're gonna aid me for this,
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: because everybody wants me to recommend Carolina, but I just
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: can't do it because they were like point eighty six
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: when you compare that to Chicago with point a nine
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: and with point nine to nine, and yeah, Chicago sort
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: of had some future value and fifteen. But we talked
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: about this quite a bit and we felt as though
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Chicago was a much better play than Carolina. So that
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: was that was a really big deal. And there was
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: also some Cleveland talk. People wanted to play Cleveland. And
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: while conceptually it makes sense, right you play them, they're
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: playing the stupid Jets, right they they're probably never going
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: to be used again. Maybe I'll just close my eyes
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: and get through. But the numbers just didn't tell that story,
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: you know. The numbers indicated that they were just going
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: to be a fishy play at point a two. So
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: so the real that benefit really from last week was
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: avoiding this. To these two, it was avoiding Carolina avoiding Cleveland.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: They both lost. Okay, Carolina took out a whole bunch
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  Speaker 2: of people, and and if you somehow closed your eyes
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: and took the Chicago, okay, then you somehow advanced in
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: miracle fashion okay against the Giants. Giants are been known
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: for that. This year is letting people advance in miracle fashion.
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: The Cowboys in week what was it week two, that
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: ridiculous game, the Broncos miracle, and now the Bear's miracles.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: So the Giants have been very, very favorable to survivor
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: pool players. So that was that was really really good stuff.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: Sometimes our recommendations just don't work. They just don't lose.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: That's the way it goes. But it all played out exactly,
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: you know, the way we wanted, and good on us.
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: Let's take a look at some of these big pools
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: and see where we are here. So this is the
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: big Splash. So this one is down to nine hundred
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: and sixty one people from you know, a ton and
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: they're going into doubles week eleven, and we're going to
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: talk about how to attack that tomorrow. But it's you know,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: if you go to splash. You can look at these
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: availability report because what's gonna happen, unfortunately or fortunately or whatever,
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: is that the publicly available uh pick percentages are going
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: to start to be awful because all these pools have
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: different rules. And if the pick percentages are based on
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: single entries, you're not gonna want them for this. And likewise,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: if the pick percentages are available are more weighted towards
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: double doubles, then you're not gonna want those for your singles.
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: So we're gonna have to kind of customize these and
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: use a little bit of savvy to make good ownership
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: ownership projections. So we're gonna spend a little bit of
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: time on that tomorrow. But just to see, like, you know,
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: a bunch of teams, you know, are are a little
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: bit rare, like the rams who we've saved, you know,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: maybe save the chiefs in doubles, right, so the bills.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: So we've got some stuff that we can drop on
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: some people, you know, and we'll talk about that. But again,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: just to take a look, there's what sixteen when I
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: say eight hundred people left something like that, it's still
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: in this game availability report. There's nine hundred and sixty
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: one left from eighteen thousand. Okay, so that's a good stuff.
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: That's good stuff. Now let's take a look at the
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: ship in Nation one, the ship in Nation contest that's
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: not in doubles yet, but it's getting there. You know,
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: this one is down to four hundred and sixty seven. Okay,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: So what we're gonna have to talk about tomorrow is
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: how how do we want to modelis? I mean, do
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: you guys think that four hundred and sixty seven entrants
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: are going to be able to navigate doubles all the
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: way to the ends? Do we really need to worry
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: about week eighteen for example? And these are gonna be
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: like some pretty cool discussions that we're gonna have tomorrow.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: But you'll see same thing, like if some of these
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: teams that we've been saving are looking pretty freaking rare,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: So it's gonna be very tempting to drop these EV
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: bombs on people when we can. But what we will
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: talk about all of that, Oh, one other one I
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: may as well show you guys. This one I can't
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: really talk about specifically because we got one of our
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: guys in it also, so that's kind of not fair.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: But this one is the five K what you McCallum,
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: where is this thing? This is the five K high Stakes?
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: And this one we lost in Carolinas and whatever. This
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: one's down to nineteen and this one I'm actually in,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: so I can't do that, So I can't really comment
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: too much on on on on this. Maybe we'll play
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh notes, but I can comment on like single entry
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: kind of in general, you know, But that one's down
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: to nineteen titles in that one too, and as I
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: mentioned last week, and we'll talk about it, he's got
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: a much stronger entry than I do because he didn't
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: use Baltimore yet. And we I think we're pretty much
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: the same on everything else. But i'll talk about single
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: entries in general. I don't know if I can talk
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: about specifically that contest. It's it's sort it's not that
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: it's unethical for him, it's unethical to the rest of
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: the pool. Really, it's almost like collusion if we talk
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: about that type of stuff. So in any case, we'll
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: talk about that tomorrow. We'll talk about other stuff that
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: we're in. We'll talk about well, you want to take
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: a look real quick and see what's up. Let's see
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: I wonder if everything was set yet. It's for fund sine,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: let's just take a look. Did it I don't think so,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: let's just see sometimes it might have wit to another
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: hour or so. Yeah, so it didn't, it didn't come in.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: Oh look at this it did. Wow. So Week eleven
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: has now been updated, although this, uh, this map has not.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: But that's okay. We'll deal with the map later. But
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: it looks as though and we're certainly gonna have to
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: redo these these these pick percentages because again this is
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: based on the entire like pool community, so we will
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: have to we'll have to tailor these two specific specific contexts.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: But we'll do that tomorrow. But I will say that's
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: probably gonna be some some variation of New England. These
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: are these are gonna be the top projected teams, right,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: New England, Baltimore, Houston, Green Bay, Buffalo, Pit. I mean,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: I think this is probably the big pool of teams
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: to consider. And then if you really want to drop,
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: you can play like Atlanta, Dallas, Casey, Minnesota or whatever.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: But maybe for doubles we'll talk about maybe those combinations
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: or whatever. But uh, that's what's we're gonna do tomorrow,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: and Uh, that's it. Good luck.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: Everybody made man's spring, not sat Man set man spring.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: St step the.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Sprite, not the stat set the desert sp
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: At