Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / Indycar Markham 2026 | Push to Cash Betting Preview
Transcript
- f1capper: Apex Insiders is back. We got another weekend of IndyCar. It is the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham. That is a mouthful. It is the first time that they're doing the street circuit at Markham in the past. It's usually on the streets of what Toronto. And so here we are. It's we got a back to back inaugural race, but we'll focus on Markham. I got INAT Rogers at IndieBet. Welcome guys. How are we feeling about a new track this weekend? New street circuit. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean I just it's kind of a wait and see thing. I'm I am excited to see new tracks, but it can be a little bit difficult betting wise, but excited to see it. @Indy_bet: Yeah, just like we were talking earlier, just excited to see what kind of potholes we have, man covers we have, what kind of bumps, turns, walls in the wrong spot. something something will historically happen. if you were I I can't think of a street course in Nashville, that that didn't have problems. So yeah, can't wait to see what what happens and maybe see if there's some way we can figure out a way to profit from it, but we'll see. f1capper: Yeah, it's we we already had one this this year in Arlington G P so we kinda went in with the same and that was even harder for us because we just started the season. We were still kinda getting acclimated to new drivers, in in just how are these cars going to do this year compared to last year. So now we've had Our feet wet throughout the season. It's kind of nice. We have some ideas. but there is something else that is kind of being thrown into the mix, which I'm about to look into that, but weather. We might have potential rain impacts. I don't wanna raise the alarm just yet. I'm gonna look to see what time the race is and what time are they projecting. I do this all the time with F one. It's it's ridiculous. I become a meteorologist whenever rain is being presented for a weekend. So I'm Going to really dig into it. So if it does rain, you have a new track and no one knows what's gonna happen. At least they the ex expectation is it should be fine Friday and Saturday. So at least they'll get some running. but yeah, like we were talking about tra track comps to this, and I think we all immediately our minds gravitated to Long Beach. I think that is the the best. one that we can kind of put one to one, even though it may not be directly one to one. but yeah, again, like what we were talking about was in what you just mentioned, is we don't know what to expect in terms of the actual street in in the surface of it. It's gonna probably be different. We're talking about a northern place versus, you know, Long Beach and and some of these other places in the south. So it's it's gonna be a little bit different. Tempts too. So yeah, I don't I N Nate, I don't know if you have your track preview up or or what, but we can go right into that. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I'll just touch on a couple of things. It's a two point one nine mile a twelve turn course and it it does have there's that one really tight turn that Rossi actually said was even tighter and than Long Beach, which I was kinda hoping maybe they would open up more and we could see people almost take a different lane to attack that corner because I think that will be that straightaway will be your best chance for passing opportunities. and if you have to go so slow right there, I think that favors Honda with getting the power @Indy_bet: think that could have responded there with iN8Rodgers: down right there and getting into the straight. it could maybe be a little more difficult for a Chevy to make a pass there. and we saw how good a Andretti was in Arlington on that long straight of really being able to get that power down and get the get you know ultimate pace for it to be the fastest cars on track. so we are back to it's a it's a dual pit lane, so you're gonna have a short time loss under pit. So that would favor, you know, it's probably three stop. That's how most of the street circuits have been at that length. we do have the single single qualifiers and the fast six, a thing to keep in mind. I think that's kinda mixed up who probably should have been poll in the last few street course races. you look at someone like Kirkwood should probably have more poles this year, but it's just it's a little more random when you have to go in a a different order and you're doing just one run and you know you the tires might not come in yet in just one lap so it's it's makes it a little more of a crapshoot. when you look back at street courses since We've had the hybrid. It's been four wins with Pillow, three wins with Kirkwood, and then Pato and Herda are the only two other people that have gotten wins. And then so when you look at just this year, that theme is kind of kept up where Pillow is at a 1.3 finishing average, which is insane. Kirkwood is at a 2.8, which would be the best any other year, except for when this type of Pelow dominant year. And then the next closest is a ward at 4.8, and then after that. everyone else is like nine and beyond ten. I think Lungard's at eight point eight. And so those three guys are kind of your main your your main contenders. I would remove Pato from the full on contender because he's more of been that top four to six pace while Kirkwood and Pillow have just been completely dominant. One thing I I I I kinda looked at my stats is that Team Pinsky won their first three street course races in twenty twenty two and since then they have one street course race, which was actually Newgardens D Q, so you could take that away. In the last nineteen street circuits since. So Pinsky, in in about twenty streets street races has not pulled a victory. And yeah, I d I I so just some things I've heard, I guess, about the track, from reading about it and trying to look at it. They did say it's almost fully paved. we'll see, you know, they there is sometimes just like Mike was saying, there's random bumps or issues of things that that show up when when they especially at a new place. and I I'm interested to see if they use that paint that Arlington used around some of the corners that the driver said was actually really good and gave them more grip instead of an issue. So I'll be interested to see since Arlington was such a success, how much these new street circuits after, you know, try to copy off those and be a successful event themselves. f1capper: Yeah, it's it's it's gonna be interesting to see what they how they they put it together. Yeah, like you said, Arlington G P. obviously I was there, so I attended it. I thought it was a they did a really good job just from a fan perspective putting it together and then I'm hoping they they continue that. I know sp it's usually not something you know, most fans like are street circuits, but from a fan perspective it is nice. You can It's easier to get to. It's you they put everything up for the weekend and you get to have a good time somewhere where you don't have to drive so far out to a specific track just to to go see a race. So interested to see how this goes. But yeah, rain this Sunday. It seems like it's very, very likely at this point. Obviously, things can change. It's only Wednesday. You know, let's see how the weather goes for the next two or three days. But yeah, it it's it's potential that we can have a pretty Big mixin' and we haven't had a lot of wet races just in general in IndyCar for the past what three years? Maybe one, I think. The IMS race is the last one I can think of with Herta doing that crazy ass save that he had. I always remember that one. As it is yeah, iN8Rodgers: Yeah. And that's been nearly five years so f1capper: like it's it's crazy. So it's hard because I I don't think we've had one with this hybrid engine. I don't think we've had one yet in this hybrid engine, so it's gonna be interesting to see what like for me, it's really made me take a take a pause. Like when I first saw the lines, I was like, ooh, yeah, you know, maybe there's a few things that I'm in intrigued with it, but at this point, I think my strategy just as I'm watching, going into the weekend, if we confirm there is likely going to be rain, I think the race starts at twelve PM Eastern. I'm not chalking anything. that's definitely not something I want to avoid. I don't want to be on any kind of chalk that's gonna be tough to to deal with. you know, I just don't want any part of that. So when it comes to the matchups specifically, anything that's gonna be, you know, over minus one twenty, I probably won't even think about maybe minus one third. We'll see. But like I'm gonna be going for underdogs for mo for the most part. I'm gonna look for Something crazy in the top three market, top five, when Cal she posts something, right? So I wanna I wanna be able to find that opportunity. Not doing that yet, so we'll go into handicapping expecting no rain, I guess. So yeah. I @Indy_bet: Yeah, so hey, let's let's let here's the problem though. Let's let's talk about the odds board, because the odds board sucks. and nothing screams, the sports books have no idea and really don't want to take much money, then them putting one, two, three, four, seven guys less than ten to one at the top of the board f1capper: Yeah. @Indy_bet: and ten guys less than twenty to one. which which is not e like I you know, I run some numbers and I try to put value on some of these odds and I've never seen so much red as far as this is not even close to the true odds or what we typically see from from IndyCar flashing. So like they have no clue. I mean the fact that you have to go last week you got down to the sixth or seventh guy on the board and you were almost into the twenties. that's what we've seen this year. But I mean power ten to one. McGlock they just threw ten to one on like a bunch of names. It's And and even the top three market, I mean Pillow's a ridiculous minus four seventy five. You have to go all the way down. Pelow, Kirkwood, Lungard, O Water, all below even money. Malucas, even money, plus one five on Caesars. to to that's top five, excuse me. Top threes minus two sixty, minus one thirty. Like it is it is just terrible pricing. I mean, Graham Ray Hall's forty five to one. He should be seventy to one, sixty to one, fifty to one. f1capper: Yeah, and and I think that's what they I don't know. I I don't know if they are factoring. I don't think they are, but they could maybe maybe they could be factoring some some rain. I don't I don't know. Sometimes F1 will do that. But I don't @Indy_bet: No. f1capper: I doubt it. But yeah, like I I think it's what you called out. It's just the books don't know really how to price this track and they can only use their historical data and based on historical trends. Like the only thing I can think of if if if we're talking about rain, if the in and you Gun to head. I mean I'm I'm staring at a guy like Marcus Eriks Ericsson, thirty to one, and I do not like betting on Marcus Marcus Ericsson, although I did bring up how my tune has flipped this year on him and Felix, which is why I have not faded those guys. If anything, I've backed more Felix than I ever have. So yeah, like I mean maybe yeah, again, if we're not going if there is no rain. I I don't see the value like you said on any of these outrights. Probably again, I would still look at like a Felix or Marcus Ericsson. Cause they seem like they've they've found something in their cars and they show up. I mean, didn't both get poll on one of the street courses, Marcus Erickson at Arlington and in Felix, I think, iN8Rodgers: Beach. f1capper: Long Beach. There you go. So We know that a car that car has c capabil and then last week, I mean Felix put it on poll, right? So these are guys that are that have found something that have the odds backing that long shot versus what have we seen from Scott or Joseph Newgarden that deserves a twenty to one and ten to one on bet three sixty five. So that's my two that I would look at. Otherwise, this is probably another pullover. @Indy_bet: Yeah, I mean look I pulled up same as Nate. I I mean you look at I pulled up average average finishes on street course. I actually had just a cr I don't know Nate if I'm wrong or you're right, but just in case people call us out on this, I had Pato at six point two five average finish, fifth at St. Pete, fifth at Arlington, eleventh at Long Beach and fourth at Detroit. Maybe I I could I might have fat fingered something there. iN8Rodgers: I showed him fifth at Long Beach, but @Indy_bet: Alright, maybe I g I don't know. We can we can everybody can go look a bet up on their own. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, that's @Indy_bet: but either way he's the next b I mean, there's a distinct gap, right? There's there's Pillow, there's Kirkwood. I had some people message me like, Pillow's plus money, I'm gonna bet him and I'm just like, n if it was a brand new road course, yes. If it was a you know, but like a brand new street course, he's he's got the title, like I think his title odds jumped to minus Eight thousand I saw somewhere. f1capper: wow. Okay. Yeah. I mean he basically s all but sealed it at this point anyways. @Indy_bet: Yeah, I mean it's all but done, just finish races. He's not gonna be he's not gonna be doing anything stupid. so yeah, I even went to see like how much like a couple thousand dollars on him in a prediction market would pay and it was like a thousand bucks was five dollars, two thousand was eight. And it's like, Well, you know, do you wanna do you wanna do you wanna wait three weeks to make eight dollars? Like, you know, like how much you gotta put like a hundred grand on this thing to make twenty bucks. f1capper: If if you had some Parmesan cheese you could have loaned that cheese out to Italy and Italy's banks and put it on Pelot win, get you some millions of dollars there. @Indy_bet: Yeah, so I mean Pelow on hard rock is minus five thousand for the title. That's you know, a thousand bucks wins twenty. So w whatever, that's d that's over with. We've you know, and and kudos to you, I believe you have more money. f1capper: I mean, I don't I don't think it's a bad it's a bad play. I mean if someone says I'm just gonna bet Pelow, I'm gonna say, you don't you have my blessing. I mean it's Pelos still at the end of the day. But I'm not running @Indy_bet: Yeah, it's plus one twenty. It's four. f1capper: to the I mean, am I running to the hills right now? No, because even with rain, something could happen to him and not saying he doesn't have the skill, but you know, it's it's gonna be b the barriers are gonna be close. You're all in this if it's wet. didn't something's going to happen. Yellow. Maybe he gets tagged. He gets sp spun out or whatever the situation may be. So at plus one twenty, I've just I'm not running to the hills for it. So @Indy_bet: Yeah, no, like your Ericsson play too, by the way. that we kind of mentioned that simultaneously. That was one that if I was looking for a flyer, maybe his his top three was five to one, maybe split the bet. I don't know, you f1capper: Yeah. I mean @Indy_bet: know, I I I gave you the Felix strategy la last week. It worked to perfection. Yeah. You see my response, like f1capper: Yeah. I had to clip the video because we literally were like I was like, Okay guys, Felix, he I'm eyeing him and then you pulled out the strategy and I'm like, That sounds amazing. I'm not gonna even touch it. And I didn't even I didn't @Indy_bet: Yep, work to perfection. f1capper: even cash on any of that. I I'm I just was I was so mad, but I had to post it. So @Indy_bet: Yeah, I didn't I didn't take my own advice. I wish I would have because it worked perfectly. Yeah. f1capper: I mean it's it was beautiful. It was a beautiful like yeah, if I if you what was it, you said twenty dollars or if you put put in f yeah. Fifty bucks, fifty bucks, yeah. Yeah. If you can cash it out, yeah. @Indy_bet: Yeah, you bet you so if you're gonna bet a hundred dollars, put fifty fifty bucks on on one bet, fifty bucks on the other bet, and then once he gets the poll, you you cash it out for seventy five, you and then you let the other fifty ride and you Yeah. Yeah. f1capper: Free free roll, free roll. But the top three would have hit anyway, so you would have been you would have been perfect. So unfortunate. Unfortunate. @Indy_bet: Yeah. But yeah, I just think this week, like no I mean, full transparency, nope, no bets. I haven't made a bet. I probably will just wait first Sunday's card. I'm not gonna play yeah, the whole point of betting prequalls is you know, using the knowledge that we have, the data we have, watching practice. f1capper: Yeah. @Indy_bet: I mean, unless there's something serious that comes out of practice or somebody somebody's boat racing the field and we the books ha you know make a mistake, which does happen, the books sleep sometimes. you know, and that'll be all over the Discord, all over X. but absent that, I'll wait, watch, see what happens in qual, see what the drivers say. And then you know, last week I did that for the most part and and got power at plus money in top three and and got Polo at a really great live number, and got him too. So it worked out great last week. So rinse and repeat, just kinda wait for Sunday and and go from there is where I'm headed. f1capper: Or get lucky where one of my books priced it at plus one bookmaker did price below at plus one thirty thirty six or something. I was like, is that is that right? What ha what's happening? And every other odds were were corrected. And I was like, Well, yeah, I'm gonna take this. it's pretty nice. It's @Indy_bet: Yeah, I got it on Coinbase at plus one ten. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean I f1capper: good it's iN8Rodgers: I'm glad that everyone was able to get in on Polo late. I I want all of us to win, but that's like there's a small part of me like, Man, I I jumped on Polo like ten days ago and people are getting the same value as me after they got to watch him qualify second, you know, it's like f1capper: I I get it. I get I get it. And that's why I didn't want I was like, I'll just wait. And I was willing to even pay the premium at minus one twenty, where some books were offering it, you know. I know it got it was like what minus one fifty, well one @Indy_bet: Yeah. f1capper: sixty, something like that at some books, but I was that's mate, I would I I would have taken it before, but I was like, you know what, let's validate he gets you know, P one, P two or something, and then I'll just I'll pay the juice on it. or in your what we talked about, like, hey, you know, pull up Cal she put pull up Coinbase, whatever your prediction market of of choice and wait till the opportunity arises for you to take it. but you know, iN8Rodgers: And and f1capper: I I've just been going polo for a long time anyway, so iN8Rodgers: Yeah. Well I mean the biggest surprise too was the people that qualified around them. You know, if you have Kiffin Simpson and and Erickson f1capper: Mm-hmm. iN8Rodgers: and VK like n not like the big dogs of the series, then you would fully expect Pillow to jump more to like a minus two hundred or worse, you know. But f1capper: Yeah, like my yeah, right? iN8Rodgers: so the fact that those lines are out there, I'm glad everyone was able to shift course if they needed to and go there and win some money. f1capper: It's interesting because I wonder what why the books were kind of shy on Pelow this time. Like what was it that made them so shy to put the odds longer than they should have? It's is it because I I I I I still don't know. I I'm with you. Like I was actually shocked that most books be @Indy_bet: Might have been power power being up there previous, you know, last the winter, last two years. f1capper: Could be, I guess. Maybe. iN8Rodgers: With his previous history, yeah. Yeah. So I mean f1capper: Yeah. Maybe that. Well iN8Rodgers: when I'm looking at kind of the value, pre qualifying value for myself here, I'm I'm gonna go my my first places I want to look are Andretti because when you think about Arlington, the last new track of how good they've been. And so when I look at there there I wanna look at qualifying averages to see if there is value and Kirkwood at three to one or less. His average qualifying is eighth. he's at s he's at a sixth, a fourth, a seventh, and a fifteenth. So I would say there's not quite value there now for Kirkwood as much as I wanna have some money down on him. And then once again bringing up that single card qualifying and I think that's partially why his numbers have been a little higher in qualifying. But then getting back to Erickson that you guys have talked about, he d he has had a tenth and a fifteenth, but Arlington he did get that poll in Saint Pete, he was second. And so you know, an average of seventh, I think when you're looking at thirty to one, I think there is a little bit of value there. And then looking at Will Power, his qualifying has been thirteenth, fourth, seventh, and second. So I a 10 to 1 I think you can make a case that there is a small amount of value there or you could you could wait that one's kind of in in the middle but those are my three main guys I'm gonna start with I don't know that I'm gonna place any money I I might put a little bit on Erickson now I'm with you guys on that but everywhere else I might wait and see kind of who kind of shows themselves with with those guys as the weekend develops. f1capper: I'll tell you what, if it does if there is rain, I am definitely going to dig deep and look into some w one of these like long odds. Like I not saying he's he's gonna be an amazing driver, but chaos, right? It's chaos. Something can happen. Maybe a collette ends up in the top three somehow at twenty eight to one, you know, like s I'm not saying I'm doing that, but like something like that I'm gonna definitely look into. However, you did have an Ericsson play. So I I want to continue that conversation and have you talk about it. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, so I have two really small plays so far. this first one's a group with Erickson. I got a plea plus three twenty five. I think that price is still out there. And I think Bovado went ahead and added this group. maybe out there on BetUS they've done some groups lately. Okay. f1capper: They haven't put anything yet. yeah. iN8Rodgers: so partial reasoning that is Armstrong who's at the longest odds, I'm pretty sure him and this isn't quite a hot alert, but the it hasn't come out yet, but I'm sh pr pretty sure him and Rossi are gonna have grid penalties since Armstrong blew a third engine. So to me that kinda gets nice pre qualifying kind of scratch him off at least beforehand. And then you have Dixon and Newgarden there, the shortest odds. I would put Erickson more at even odds with those guys with how good Andretti and even he has been this year. I just did a quarter unit on that, I think. And then I got in on a matchup against Rossi with Colette, on bet three six five. I had to go small on it because I don't fully trust Colette, but yeah, that's basically just with the Rossi grid penalty and them being about equal on street courses this year. f1capper: Yeah. I I think that's @Indy_bet: I I wish that was like Hauger. I wish that was like Hauger instead of Colette. Like that iN8Rodgers: Yeah, for sure. f1capper: yeah. iN8Rodgers: I would have done a lot more. @Indy_bet: Yeah, like f1capper: I like that intel because you know what? going back to last week, ca I was a little I was like, my god, I forgot about Malucas and he took the grit penalty and it made me regret taking Mal Malucas over Kirkwood. I was like, just should have factored that in, did not, but it's all right. It happens. iN8Rodgers: Yeah. I had just dropped it I had just dropped a whole unit on the Lucas Wynn and top three and before that came out just yeah, so just threw it away kinda. f1capper: Yeah. yeah, and you did more, so yeah. I didn't even think about that at all. So but yeah, no, I think @Indy_bet: Yeah, he did w like that was a good bet. Like absent that, he did well. iN8Rodgers: Yeah. f1capper: Yeah, he did. He did. I just think that the track position hurt him. It just that's it. @Indy_bet: I think I think he would have had a chance at the top I think he would have had a chance at the top three. Yeah, I think he like absent the grade penalty. f1capper: Like if he if he could have qualified @Indy_bet: Yeah, he qualified what'd he qualified? Six? Or seventh? Yeah, like right yeah, just out of the fast I mean the fast six was f1capper: He was like Yeah. And and then you know. iN8Rodgers: I think like ninth or something, so @Indy_bet: a bunch of Joes. So I think and he moved up, so I I think we could have cashed that, but the yeah, the grid when I saw the grid panel I'm like, that's it for that one. f1capper: Yeah, unfortunate. @Indy_bet: That kinda helped me get over the Pillow ledge to be honest. I was like, Well I'm gonna have to find a way to make money here. iN8Rodgers: Huh. Yeah. f1capper: But yeah, so I I know we don't have a whole lot. don't have great arrival, unfortunately. at least yet. I haven't checked the bankroll app, but nothing there. So unfortunately, we don't have any pick ems. I I don't have a whole lot else to talk about right now about this, other than like again, my strategy going in is kind of with everyone. I actually I think for all kind of on the same page with Erickson. Why not? Let's sprinkle a little Ericsson. outright. he's about ten ten to one, nine to one for podium. So maybe I'll wait till Bet US posts something for top three. I do want to do that group bet. I love that bet by the way, Nate. It's awesome value there considering what the field is. maybe we don't sleep on dicks and especially if it races if the it's a wet race too, something to consider. iN8Rodgers: Yeah, a little note on Dixon is I know that Genassey has cut him off from the sim that all the other drivers have got to do. So for tracks that he's been to, that's not gonna be a big deal, but he has not gonna have a prior knowledge of Markham or DC that everyone else is gonna at least have a digital look at. f1capper: Yeah, never mind. Not interested. Not interested. See this i I have @Indy_bet: Can't wait for all my dicks and money to come in at the end of the year. iN8Rodgers: Yeah. f1capper: I have yet to put a dime on him this year, except for our one matchup, I think. That's about it. So yeah, I don't I don't have anything else. I'm not I mean, I'm kinda with you guys. We're all in the dark is kinda right now like f just throwing some darts. again we Talked about the value, make sure if you are gonna take something, look at the value. you just heard it from Nate around Andretti. we talked about Erickson, we talked about power. Anything else that we're missing about this weekend? iN8Rodgers: Yeah, I mean I think it's the whole weekend's gonna evolve. @Indy_bet: Pay attention, see if you can catch the mix of sleeping. f1capper: Yeah, definitely is. iN8Rodgers: Just practice one, practice two's gonna look a lot different, practice one, qualifying and you know, people are just gonna rise and fall from figuring it all out. f1capper: Yeah, to be honest, I actually wouldn't mind a wet race. I'd love to see something kinda shake it up a little bit for us this weekend. Not to say I boring equals winning money, but if we know that there's going to be volatility going in, at least I can say, All right, time to it we're at the craps table now. Let's go let's go maybe throw like ten dollars on snake eyes or something. Let's see what happens. iN8Rodgers: Then you get a live bat from there. Yep. f1capper: Exactly, exactly. I think that's where the opportunity and there's some excitement behind that at least. So cool. Any any last thoughts before we sign off? No. All right, guys. We'll we'll see you this weekend. Appreciate it. And get into the Discord. You'll find us in there throughout the weekend. Live updates. You have our crew. Everyone is in there. So get on that.