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Houston Open - PGA DFS | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | First Look · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear. We lived up. Oh we're live.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We are alive. The intro must have just cut out quick,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: but we're back.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: Another episode of PGA DFS first look Houston Open. Houston
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Open is a We're finally out of Florida for what's
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: been like what four or four and a half weeks
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: in Florida.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Feels good to be at home for a week.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not traveling for all the time. But yeah, another
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: episode Houston Open. Happy to be talking some Texas golf.
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  Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest fan of Texas.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Golf, but it is what it is. What it is.
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  Speaker 2: We have to I guess handicap it have to go
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  Speaker 2: about it in a certain way. Memorial Parker Golf course
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  Speaker 2: that we've seen there for five years now, we're four
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: years now. I think one of them was kind of
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: twice in one year because they moved it from the
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  Speaker 2: fall to mark where we have it now.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So let's go through what we usually do.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: Bring up the thread, bring up everything, bring up the stats,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: the information all the course and yeah, let's do it.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: So screen is here below. Go over to my Twitter
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: go take a look at this thread. There is a
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: discount code on the bottom once you go through the thread.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: This is one of the most straightforward handicaps. I guess
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  Speaker 2: of the year, straightforward golf courses that we see on
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: a yearly basis, And it's basically like, for example, obviously
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: you know, I came over from Vinceric's and my boss Adam.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of the stats, a lot of the numbers,
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: and I texted him send me the Houston Open report
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  Speaker 2: for the week, and he goes, don't even worry about it,
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  Speaker 2: just nuke, And I'm like, you're right, Why am I
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: going to overcomplicate this. It's literally just nuked as far
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: as you can and make birdies from there. But I'll
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: go through this thread, and I did dig a little
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  Speaker 2: deeper more than just simply nuke. So since moving here
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, we've seen the theme. Since it
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: matters a lot, simply hit the ball as far as
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: far as you can. You don't have to necessarily lead
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: the field and driving distance, but you need to be long.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: The winners have been long.
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  Speaker 2: Look at these past past winners, Minwu Yager, Female, Jason
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  Speaker 2: Kirkrach and Carlosertiz a little bit different, but all longer
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  Speaker 2: than average. That Carlos Ertz is one of the shorter ones,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: but everyone knows you play Carlos in Houston, so this
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: is really interesting. These are their incoming rounds with a
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: spike in distance, So these are their last ten starts
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: before they won in Houston. Min Wu Yaeger female cook
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  Speaker 2: rack all spiked nine or ten times within distance. That's
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: every single week they are having a distance spike leading
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: up to their win. Or Cheese was a little bit
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: of an outlier. Obviously only one or Cheese was not
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: in good form at all when he won here. That
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: was kind of the first time this golf course was seen,
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: so I guess you could take that where the grain
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  Speaker 2: is salt. But the last four years we've seen the
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: golfers come in absolutely nuking it before they won. It's
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: like not necessarily the min Wu yeagu or female finish
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: top first and distance, finish top five and distance, but
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  Speaker 2: they all came in spiking in distance before their win
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  Speaker 2: at Memorial Park.
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  Speaker 1: So that is the clear.
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  Speaker 2: Aggregate of aggregate differentiator that we're looking for this week.
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  Speaker 2: Spike indifferent spike in distance coming in, you can attack
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  Speaker 2: it off to wide corridors, limited penalty, just like we
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: saw min Wu last year, nuke it all over the
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  Speaker 2: place and get away with it. Weatherwise, I'm gonna get
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: into the weather, but it's looking dry. This could allow
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: some of the shorter hitters to stick around, but it's
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: just gonna make the bombers have even less into the greens.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: So outside of just distance, you need to finish it
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  Speaker 2: off on and around the greens.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: These are tricky greens complexes.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: You don't have to be the best around the green player,
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  Speaker 2: which I'll talk about right here, but you need to
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: you need to be okay around the greens. Cokrak was
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  Speaker 2: able to get get rid of it, get rid of
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  Speaker 2: some poor around the green play and still win. But
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: the rest of the guys did have good around the
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  Speaker 2: green play to win. And I think this matter is
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: more than this coke rack one.
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  Speaker 1: But the putting. The putting is massive here.
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  Speaker 2: All five of these winners finished top five are better
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  Speaker 2: in putting for the week and very similar to Valspar
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  Speaker 2: last week. The combined strokes gain over the last five
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  Speaker 2: years is thirty seven point seven winners, so thirty seven
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  Speaker 2: point seven stroke skin putting. That's average seven point five
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  Speaker 2: strokes per winner. So you have to be able to
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  Speaker 2: pop with the flatstick, that's no question. So TLDR bombit.
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  Speaker 2: Take advantage of these wide fairways, have some birdy chances
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  Speaker 2: and gain strokes putting, So we're looking for a guy
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  Speaker 2: who can nuke. The most predictive thing that we could
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  Speaker 2: find is a guy coming in in good distance form.
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  Speaker 2: Not one of them, Not one of those winners necessarily
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  Speaker 2: was coming in great putting form. Putting pops really randomly,
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: but you have to be able to pair that spike
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  Speaker 2: distance with a good flat stick, so that's what.
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  Speaker 1: We're looking for.
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  Speaker 2: Here are the recent recent winners and the strokes that
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: they won by Minwu got it the minus twenty yager
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: minus twelve, tone minus sixteen cocrack minus ten loos minus thirteen.
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  Speaker 2: And these two were the first ones that were in March.
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  Speaker 2: The rest of these were in November, so the course
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: could have played a little bit differently penning it was
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: a different time of year. Let's look at some of
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: the weather for the week. We have Memorial Park pulled
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: up here leading up to this event. We have dry conditions,
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  Speaker 2: pretty fair wind, nothing crazy, warm temperatures.
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  Speaker 1: Sixty five to eighty five degrees.
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  Speaker 2: It's probably a really nice week to be in Houston
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  Speaker 2: come tournament time. Potential potential maybe a Thursday am pm split.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: Look at this wind eight am to noon basically nothing,
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  Speaker 2: some gusts up to twenty and then once you get
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: to after the afternoon, the wind picks up. It turns
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: the double digits, and the gus get a little stronger.
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  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying this is a lock.
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  Speaker 2: This could change Wednesday, and tune in to Alex and
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: Tambeau's show.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: They might do a better job at explaining this.
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  Speaker 2: This is also Monday afternoon, but something to potentially monitor,
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  Speaker 2: maybe a little bit Thursday advantage.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: And then when we get the Friday. We don't have
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the one hour.
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  Speaker 2: Splits yet, but looks fairly straightforward in terms of whether
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  Speaker 2: on Friday. Expecting no rain at all. So it should
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  Speaker 2: be a dry, calm week in Houston. Guys should be
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: very confident off the tea. Guys should be making birdies.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Guys should It should be a very prime week for scoring,
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: a prime week for really We're gonna see some really
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: really long drives this week. Talking about DraftKings contest selection.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: We need to go to golf, so we have some
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: here we go text children opens. We have some interesting
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: contests this week. I really really love the payout and
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: the five dollars one to fifty max. So obviously you
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: don't have to enter all of these lineups, but I
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: love this payout structure. Thirty K up top and then
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: tenth place gets three K. This is as solid as
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: I've seen, this, as solid as I really would love
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: to see a payout structure so you don't have to
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: in one hundred fifty line ups.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I think you put four lineups in this.
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: You know it's gonna be hard to beat seventy one
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: thousand people, but it's a very fair payout structure if
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: you have a very very unique lineup and build in
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: that way. If you're only if you're entering a one
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: to fifty lineups, you're gonna build in a specific way.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: If you're entering in a four to five lineups in
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: one hundred in a seventy thousand, seventy one thousand person contest,
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: you got to get really different, really unique. Drop your
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: questions for Alex and Tambo in that regard. Let's take
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: a look at this DFS board. While we are here,
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: Scotty Scheffler leads the way at fourteen eight with a
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: massive jump down to min Wu Lee.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: At nine nine. Very interesting.
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: But I want to take a look at Scotty Scheffler
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: while we are here, because he's in some questionable form,
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: really question for him. He had his best approach week
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: since his T three at Tepe Scottsdale, and best approach
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: week only gaining one on approach is saying something. Scotti
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Scheffler has failed definitions inside the top ten since Pebble Beach.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Let's do a real long deep dive.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: Let's see the last time Scotty Scheffler had three straight
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: weeks that were not inside the top ten. Might be
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: a while, it could be a while. We have nope,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: bear with me here because this is this is something.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: This is Nope, not here. We had two weeks there.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: This is this is something. Scotti Scheffler has not finished
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  Speaker 2: outside the top ten in three consecutive weeks.
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  Speaker 1: Four. Okay, I found it.
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: This is East Lake twenty twenty one to Byron Nelson,
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty one. That is a very very long time. No,
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: it's right here. It's twenty twenty two. It's this little
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: run right here twenty twenty one to twenty to October
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  Speaker 2: to August of twenty twenty one.
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  Speaker 1: So clearly Scotty Scheffler is in.
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  Speaker 2: I guess you could say the worst form that he's
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  Speaker 2: shown since that period of time. But heading back to
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  Speaker 2: Houston Golf Course that he's played really really well at,
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: like look at this T twenty eight, no sorry, back in
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  Speaker 2: it was Memorial Park T two, T nine, T two
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  Speaker 2: T two. He's never finished worse than ninth. Here he
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: comes in in some question before me, comes in at
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: a number that's not not betible. But you gotta, I guess,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: structure your card in a certain way in the future
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: if you want to bet Scotty Scheffler. I could see
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: myself going to the without Scotty Scheffler mar market in
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: terms of betting. But here DFS, I think starting with
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: Scotty Scheffler then finding some nukers down the bottom is
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: the way that I'm going to be doing it. So
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Scotty Scheffler at nine or sorry at fourteen eight is
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: interesting worth a look for sure. Another guy that I
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: want to take a look at down this DFS board
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: is Michael Thorpe Jornson at eighty six hundred dollars.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Michael Thorpe Jornson righter seat right here.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Comes in off of a T twenty two at TP
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: Sawgrass where he lost four and a half strokes in
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: the final round. Came in in the he was in
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: the final group with Ludvig, had a nice and he
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: still gained strokes across the board. It wasn't a bad
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: week for thorbe Jornson, but it was definitely a disappointing
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: result based on where he was going into the final round.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: So thorpe Jornsen is a golfer who surely is long.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: So far in twenty twenty six, he is seventeenth on
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: the tour and driving distance, we know he's coming in
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: gaining strokes in terms of distance to the field, and
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: that's what we're looking for. So far, he's gained strokes
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: and putting in his last three rounds, last three events,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: four of five and looking at his course history here
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: he's got one finish T twenty five with a bad
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: approach week, not horrible putting week, but he gained four
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: strokes off the tee at eighty six hundred dollars, we
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: know what his upside could be. I think this is
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: a really really good golf course for Davis Thompson. Let's
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: take a look at the betting board. Bear with me
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: while I bring this up. The betting board for the
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: Texas Children's Houston Open very similar to the DFS Sports
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Gotti three and a half to one, and it's a
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: big jump from minu to eighteen. So if you're not
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: betting Scotty, here's definitely room to build a card if
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: you're starting at any of these numbers. So we know
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: some guys will be popular. We know some guys could
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: give you some value in this, like thirty to thirty
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: thirty one range plus. But a golfer that chit catches
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: my eye on this betting board doesn't come until we
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: get to sixty plus to one, and that's Davis Thompson. Now,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Davis Thompson is not coming in in great form at all.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: He popped in round one of the vallast Bar and
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: then finished off with the T forty six. He had
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: one of the best rounds of the day in round one.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: It was all kind of putter, but we're seeing some.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Better approach play.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: It's not there yet, but I think it's turning in
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: the right direction and it could pop soon. Once you
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: get back to this two three.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: We know what he could do.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: He could gain five strokes on approach easily, not saying
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: that approach is the way to go around here. But
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: he's never missed the cut here. He's gaining strokes putting
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: every time. It's little gains. And also something that we're
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: looking for is the looking at Davis Thompson's distance. He
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: is forty first on the entire PGA Tour in driving
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: distance in a golf in a field where not the
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: entire PGA Tour is playing, that will go be closer
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: to thirtieth in this field in distance.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: That's plenty of enough distance to play well here.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: So Davis Thompson is a guy that checks my eye
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: in the betting board. Before we get to some some
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: more players that we like, I want to talk to
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: you about the website. So get over to ship at
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: nation dot com. Let me bring up this code. This
• 12:30
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• 12:35
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• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I want to use our tools. We have never talked
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  Speaker 2: about this. We have the value report from Lee Aldrich.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Go follow Lee on Twitter. If you do not, this
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: will be up. He is overseas, so this comes up
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: at at funky times, so it'll be up in very
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: shortly as well as the projections, the stone, all this stuff,
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: the slate plan. This will all be up come Wednesday afternoon.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: The projections for on our side are never ever ever
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: rushed through. We probably are the last site that puts
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: up projections, and that is a flex that is a
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  Speaker 2: something that we take pride in. We're not gonna we're
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: not gonna rush projections at all. We're gonna wait till
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: they're correct. And I see the question in the chat.
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: I'll get to them at the end of the show.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: So use that code and then fly the flag. If
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: you are a DFS player, which you probably are because
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• 14:26
  Speaker 2: thing I do want to talk about is a chucky guy,
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: a guy that I believe is going to garner a
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: lot of love in all markets.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: So let's do that now. Marco Penge.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: Marco Pinge has one good week and all of a sudden,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: he needs to be in every lineup, all of a sudden,
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: he has to be thirty to one, and all of
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: a sudden, Marco Penge has to be the love of
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the week. Now, does it make sense? Yes, Marco Pens
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: is an absolute bomber. These are the weeks that he
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: needs to know. Okay, this is where my game makes sense,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: This is where I have to be great, and he
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: probably should play well. But I know this ownership is
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: not correct yet. Is only Monday afternoon at ninety one
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: hundred in his highest price of the year, buying him
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: at his absolute peak and absolute peak and ownership, is
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: that going to pay off? I'm gonna say no. I'm
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: going to say no. Marco penn is going to be
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: extremely chalky, extremely high, high valued, and buying guys who
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: are unproven at their peaks is not something that I
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: ever want to be a part of. If I get
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: beat on this, sure, but it's going to help me
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: fading these guys more times than it's going to hurt me.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: So Marco Pence is one shocky guy that I will
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: be off. Now, let's flip it. Who is one potential pivot,
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: potential low owned guy that might be getting overlooked that
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I am going to play this week. That's Sam Burns
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: for only six hundred dollars more. Sam Burns is extremely
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: more proven than Mark go Pens. Sam Burns is coming
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: in in not the worst form at all. T thirteen
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: at Sawgrass, which is not the greatest sam Burns course
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: in the world. It was all putter, but he gained
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: two point one strokes on approach, sorry, off the tee.
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: Sam Burns has played this golf course before. He hasn't
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: played well. He hadn't played well last year, but he
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: came in with a T seven and a T seven.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: It's a golf course where he can just nukele it
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: off the t sam Burns is a golfer who was
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: long as well, plenty of distance, and sam Burns is
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: a golfer who has plenty of wins before knows he
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: can get in. So with Pens eating up all that
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: ownership at ninety one, people are still going to play
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: Scotty and they love minmu Here, he's not going to
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: be as owned as he should be.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: So Sam Burns is a golfer that I absolutely love.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: At ninety seven hundred dollars, what else do we want
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: to get out. We want to talk about the model.
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: We want to talk about one golfer that I am on.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: So we will skip to the model. The model right now,
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: I will say the model has not been modeling. I
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: track my model results every single week and I see
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: how many times as the model produced a winner, and
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: I think this is the year that it's We've had
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: the least winners in what nine weeks, nine weeks so far,
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: so I know.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: That it's going to produce winner soon.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: Like I could actually show you this while I'm here,
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: So I'll show you the model first, and then I'll
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: show you the model results and look at some past history.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: So here we go.
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: The model number one, Jake Napp, number two, Sudar Sean,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: the Canadian bomber number three, Gary Wildon, number four, tied
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: for fourth, Marko Panjbrasmis Houreguard, and then the tie for
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: six Nikolai Horgard, Gordon Sargent, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott, and
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: yes ras Fens and I model more uniquely than anybody
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: in the entire world. We've built fifteen models, five different
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: stat lines verse, three different aggregate time timelines, and that
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: produced me with this. So just looking at numbers differently,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: looking at names differently, that's all it is. Anyone can
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: build a model, but I want you to look at
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: my results and show you how like poor they've been
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: so far. Why are we on this? I don't know
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: how we got to this. Buried me for a second.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Google Sheets is where we tracked the model results. Sign
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: in the Google Sheets has kind of been a little
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: bit of a mess recently. So model results right here.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: This is my I've tracked my model for the last
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: four seasons. Anytime a model produced a winner, it's highlighted
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: than yellow, so you could see twenty what is it,
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, nice start, twenty twenty two, or this
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: is I think this is twenty twenty two to twenty
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: twenty three, twenty twenty four, whatever, it's the past four years.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: I'm just talking quickly.
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: You can see this year got off to a really
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: low start and then it started minting winners. Last year
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: got off to a decent start. This year produced one winner, Scottie,
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: and then it's been nothing. With that being said, I
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: think we are very due. Like around this time of
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: the year, both last two years it started really minting winner.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: So that's just because like we're getting a better result
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: of the stats. We're getting more prevalent stats from the tour,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: like the people are guys are playing more.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: It's not relying on last season's stats.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: So I really think these next eight weeks, we're gonna
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: have a really solid results with the model. So as
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: as I showed before, you saw who was number one
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: in the model, you saw who printed out there. So
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: that brings us to the one golfer that I am on?
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Who am I playing? Who am I?
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Who might not you be playing? Who do you want
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: to tail me on? If there's anyone it is? Okay,
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: I see that question, I'll answer it now. This is
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: no outright winner. Outright winner only. So anytime this is
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: a yellow, that means they won the golf tournament, That's
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: all I'm saying.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: And that means that they let me.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: Let me also clarify that I don't I only model
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: like one to My model only prints out like one
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: to eight guys. I'm not modeling one to seventy five.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: So anytimes that model produced the winner, that means it's
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: it's up here, so right here. Like for example, like
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Ludwig won the Genesis, he was fourth in the model,
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Scotty won the Amex, he was first in the model.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: All these guys won this event they were not in
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: the model at all. So what I'm getting at is,
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: I do think the model is going to produce winners
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: in the near future. Okay, one golfer that I am
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: on bang, who is it? Michael Brennan. Michael Brennan is
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: coming in in some pretty pretty weak form. He's got
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: a great price seventy two hundred dollars, and he's not
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: doing anything great.
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: He's not doing anything great.
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: But one thing that we know Michael Brennan does is
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: gain chokes off the tee, more specifically, gain strokes in
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: diff distance. If if Michael Brennan were to have the
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: week Marco penchad even it was horrible form, and had
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: a great week that Marco Penge had, he would be
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: eighty three hundred giga chalk. Because everyone knows Marco pen
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Michael Brenan's a bomber. Let's play Michael Brennan. He's not
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: like he's a low owned guy that has the di
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: that can pop, that can have that high ceiling. He's
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: already won, he's already flashed on tour. So Michael Brennan
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: is definitely the one golfer that I am going to play.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Let's go back through. Let's look at some of these
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: comments before we.
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Get out of here.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: I don't think toasty is a viable sleeper at all,
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: because I think everyone knows that Toasty's played well here before,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: and uh, Toasty is a birdie maker. So I'm gonna
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: be out on Toasty and I don't think like, I
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: think it makes sense for him on paper, but I
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: don't think he's going to be a sleeper. I don't
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: think he's really going to be like going under the
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: radar too much. That's my thoughts on Toasty. Yeah, I
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: mean this is just another way to potentially potentially look
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: at distance clubhead speed correlates to distance extremely.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's that's he too at fourteen a going
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: to do it.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: It's that's that's a subjective question and it matters what
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: everyone else does up top. Uh so yeah, definitely can
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: do it at at fourteen eight. Yeah, I jager was
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: I hit Ayager here at what fifty to one here
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: a few years back. I think it's this is definitely
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: a Jaeger golf course.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I like that. I like that as well.
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: I'm not really gonna get too deeper than narratives. Every
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: golfer wants to play well every single week, so I
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: don't think this week is going to make them play better.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: They know they want to play well.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So I I talked about Cantley last week and
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: I got a ton of backlash that Cantley is not
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: going to play well and he backdoored his finish and
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: definitely could have paid off his price.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: So who could back door top ten or better this week?
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: I'll give you it.
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe I can give you someone who I think could
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: do that. Let me look at the uh an unserious golfer.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: Jake Nap.
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I think Jake Nap could back door top ten at
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: ninety five hundred dollars. He would be my answer to that.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: All right, So the model is cut off top ten
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: pre twenty. I'm not sure what this question means.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I can.
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I can go back in the model and explain it again.
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: So how I model is I model out? With all
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: my stats I get, it's usually ten golfers, basically ten
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: golfers at most, and if that model produced the winner,
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: if that model produced the winner of the golf tournament,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: it will get a highlight. So anytime it says na.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: Anytime it says na, that means they were not in
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: the model. Anytime I had the golfer in the model
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: who ended up winning, this shows their rank. So it's
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: as simple as that. But that does it for this week.
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: As always, we got to give you the song of
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: the day. The playlist is available bird Cage by Holding
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: Absence Banger. I think you're gonna like it. But as always,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: thank you guys for tuning in. I will be back
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Thursday with the Showdown show. Alex and Tambeau will be
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: back Wednesday, I believe, for the lever Lanne Show. Definitely
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: check that out, one of the best shows on the app,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: on Twitter, on YouTube. So any questions, you know where
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: to find me and I'll catch you guys soon. Peace Out,
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: ship Bo