Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Tax Bill vs Crypto Market📉Uncertainty Ahead

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Tax Bill vs Crypto Market📉Uncertainty Ahead · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody, I'm coming in remote today.
0:08
Speaker 1: Of course, today we're going to be breaking down a
0:10
Speaker 1: little bit of how the market is holding up against
0:12
Speaker 1: this new tax bill, how tariffts will play into it.
0:15
Speaker 1: You don't want to miss it. My name is Paul Barren.
0:17
Speaker 1: Welcome back in a tech path. You want to thank
0:19
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0:21
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0:25
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Speaker 1: easy to get going. So check it out. You guys
0:40
Speaker 1: will love it. All right. A couple of things I
0:41
Speaker 1: want to get into today. Of course, a lot of
0:44
Speaker 1: news coming out. One of the big things that has
0:46
Speaker 1: been coming out is just this battle that has been
0:49
Speaker 1: coming out of DC, which we knew eventually would happen,
0:53
Speaker 1: and that of course is all centered around Elon Musk
0:55
Speaker 1: and this new tax bill, the new tax bill. He's
0:58
Speaker 1: not in favor of it at all, as you can
1:00
Speaker 1: see right here, he's going out with his typical fun
1:03
Speaker 1: in games, and that is kill the bill. And he
1:06
Speaker 1: is going hard on the idea of getting away from
1:10
Speaker 1: this bill, mainly because of the amount of increase to
1:14
Speaker 1: the deficit that it continues to pour on. And his
1:18
Speaker 1: premise is that America will soon be bankrupt. Now if
1:20
Speaker 1: that is the case, if we continue to see this
1:22
Speaker 1: government spending at the levels that we're seeing and this
1:26
Speaker 1: money printer, well you guys know what happens on the
1:28
Speaker 1: other end of that, and that of course means that
1:31
Speaker 1: bitcoin and digital assets are going to be on the rise.
1:34
Speaker 1: All right. I want to go to a clip here.
1:35
Speaker 1: This is coming in from tit. It goes into some
1:37
Speaker 1: little bit more of the nuances around why Elon is
1:41
Speaker 1: acting the way he is. Take a look, there's a.
1:43
Speaker 2: Part of his problem with the bill that he's not
1:47
Speaker 2: really being upfront about. They reportedly included Must's inability to
1:51
Speaker 2: continue serving in his position as a special government employee
1:54
Speaker 2: beyond the imposed time limit.
1:57
Speaker 3: Oh so he did catch feelings about not being able
2:00
Speaker 3: to lead doge.
2:02
Speaker 2: Okay, well, so there's more so there. He wanted to
2:06
Speaker 2: stay there, but I guess Trump didn't make that happen,
2:10
Speaker 2: the Trump administration's refusal to run air traffic control systems
2:15
Speaker 2: from Musk's satellite internet company, Starling, Trump's decision to withdraw
2:20
Speaker 2: his nomination of Musk's ally, Jared is Isaacman to serve
2:25
Speaker 2: as NASA administrator, and tax credits for electric vehicles being
2:30
Speaker 2: cut from the bill, a bloat of Musk's company, Tesla,
2:33
Speaker 2: which has already suffered as a result of the billionaire's
2:36
Speaker 2: participation in the Trump administration.
2:39
Speaker 3: And why does he care so much about the NASA
2:41
Speaker 3: administrator Because he has SpaceX and Starlink. So he puts
2:45
Speaker 3: his boy into NASA, He'll be getting a lot more
2:48
Speaker 3: contracts from the government, like worth billions upon billions, maybe
2:52
Speaker 3: hundreds of billions of dollars, and so then that'll be
2:55
Speaker 3: a good return on his investment of about three hundred
2:58
Speaker 3: million that he put into Trump.
3:00
Speaker 1: Well, I think there's a couple of things that are
3:02
Speaker 1: going on here. The we don't know exactly what those
3:06
Speaker 1: values of those contracts are. Eventually that will come out, hopefully,
3:10
Speaker 1: But I do think that the issue of Trump exiting
3:14
Speaker 1: Elon in this short timeframe, especially with the fact that
3:17
Speaker 1: dose has not been successful, this does showcase a little
3:21
Speaker 1: bit of trouble. Now. The interesting point too is Elon's
3:24
Speaker 1: been very vocal since he's left the Doze team, and
3:28
Speaker 1: because of that vocal attitude that I think he has
3:32
Speaker 1: right now, I'm surprised that we haven't seen President Trump actually,
3:35
Speaker 1: you know, kind of quash this. But again, this is
3:38
Speaker 1: all speculation as to how this is going to play out.
3:40
Speaker 1: And I think the key here, of course is what
3:43
Speaker 1: does this do for digital assets? What does this do
3:45
Speaker 1: for general market? One thing that kind of take a
3:47
Speaker 1: look at. This is an interesting point, right This is
3:50
Speaker 1: an interesting take by Nick Carter, and what he's talking
3:53
Speaker 1: about is the first of all, the fact that we
3:55
Speaker 1: will have stable coins through Genius Act very soon, but
3:58
Speaker 1: the fact that Startling its global reach could open up
4:02
Speaker 1: all sorts of parts of the globe to have access
4:06
Speaker 1: to the US dollar, and this is most likely going
4:08
Speaker 1: to come through things like USDC Toether, etc. But the
4:12
Speaker 1: point being is that we're going to see a lot
4:14
Speaker 1: of activity maybe now because of the coverage of starlink.
4:18
Speaker 1: So hopefully Elon can get it straight and get moving
4:21
Speaker 1: back in the right direction going forward. One other thing
4:24
Speaker 1: I want to hit on I'll just jump to that
4:26
Speaker 1: tab real quick, and that is that Trump is finally
4:29
Speaker 1: getting a meeting with China. That happened today with Yugping.
4:33
Speaker 1: We don't know the results of it just yet, but
4:36
Speaker 1: what it does tell me is that at least both
4:38
Speaker 1: sides are starting to look at some sort of resolution.
4:42
Speaker 1: I think this is the biggest thing that most of
4:45
Speaker 1: the market is looking at right now. Trump's inability to
4:49
Speaker 1: hold on these tariffs, and also the ability to get
4:52
Speaker 1: a little bit more consistency out of what Trump's administration
4:56
Speaker 1: is doing. So all this could be good unless we
4:59
Speaker 1: get some wild card coming out of this meeting that
5:01
Speaker 1: maybe they could not come to an agreement. One thing
5:05
Speaker 1: I do want to jump to is this is a
5:08
Speaker 1: clip that kind of talks about what needs to happen
5:11
Speaker 1: for both sides to win, because this is something I've
5:13
Speaker 1: said often, is that both sides needs to feel like
5:16
Speaker 1: they've wont take a look.
5:18
Speaker 4: The readout from the Chinese side is suggesting that President's
5:21
Speaker 4: season Ping had essentially given a lecture to President Trump
5:26
Speaker 4: on the correct course of action for Sino US relations.
5:30
Speaker 4: He mentioned the Geneva talks, basically reiterated China's position that
5:35
Speaker 4: we've been hearing that both sides rather that the Chinese
5:39
Speaker 4: people have always kept their promises, that the Geneva talks
5:42
Speaker 4: from the Chinese perspective, that China had seriously implemented this agreement. Also,
5:49
Speaker 4: there have suggestions in here as to what She Jinping
5:53
Speaker 4: actually wants, and that is that the United States should
5:56
Speaker 4: handle the Taiwan issue very sensitively. There was of course
6:01
Speaker 4: a bit of an outreach to try to move the
6:04
Speaker 4: conversation a little bit forward by having the two potentially
6:07
Speaker 4: meet at some point in the future, but this readout
6:12
Speaker 4: really doesn't suggest that China has given up very much.
6:15
Speaker 4: And then you guys had brought up the idea of
6:17
Speaker 4: the Rare Earth that President Trump had said that he
6:20
Speaker 4: understands now how complicated their Rare Earth's situation is. From
6:26
Speaker 4: the Chinese perspective, they have said that this is very complicated,
6:29
Speaker 4: that there are all these approvals that need to be made,
6:31
Speaker 4: that it's a forty five day process. And so to me,
6:34
Speaker 4: that seems to communicate that a President Trump is now
6:38
Speaker 4: agreeing with Presidency and the Chinese perspective that it's okay
6:44
Speaker 4: that these rare Earth expert curves are taking so long
6:48
Speaker 4: to get approved for American industry.
6:53
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised that Trump is aligning with what
6:57
Speaker 1: China's done, because he's been very anti China over the past,
7:01
Speaker 1: you know, with his reddick over the past six months
7:03
Speaker 1: to a year, really all of his campaign if you
7:06
Speaker 1: look at it. But this could indicate that there is
7:09
Speaker 1: some negotiation going on, and I think that's the key
7:12
Speaker 1: thing going forward. And because really, if you take a
7:15
Speaker 1: look at it, the cost of what's happening right now
7:18
Speaker 1: only with China, but also the rest of the world
7:20
Speaker 1: in many countries is these tariffs are starting to hit
7:22
Speaker 1: home a little bit. And I want to go to
7:24
Speaker 1: a clip that we'll get into more of what the
7:26
Speaker 1: real cost is. Take a look.
7:28
Speaker 5: So let's get started. Before the April second tariffs, A
7:32
Speaker 5: cotton men sweater made in China costs six dollars and
7:35
Speaker 5: eighty cents to produce. A forty one and a half
7:38
Speaker 5: percent total tariff was already in place for that sweater
7:42
Speaker 5: before April second ship to the United States. That equals
7:45
Speaker 5: two dollars and eighty two cents tariff on that sweater
7:48
Speaker 5: at a typical initial markup rate to get to a
7:50
Speaker 5: sixty five percent gross margin. The retail price before April
7:55
Speaker 5: second would have been about thirty bucks. Now, now let's
7:58
Speaker 5: look at what happens if the full tariffs announced April
8:01
Speaker 5: second would be enforced for China at that forty one
8:04
Speaker 5: and a half percent pre April second existing tariff for
8:08
Speaker 5: the sweater, plus an additional one hundred and forty five percent.
8:12
Speaker 5: The new tariff effective rate is one hundred and eighty
8:14
Speaker 5: six point five percent for this cottonmen sweater made in China,
8:18
Speaker 5: or a total tariff cost of twelve dollars and sixty
8:21
Speaker 5: eight cents, making the new cost the retailer pays for
8:24
Speaker 5: the sweater twenty dollars and forty three cents. The new
8:28
Speaker 5: price the consumer pays would be fifty seven dollars and
8:31
Speaker 5: ninety seven cents. That is a more than ninety three
8:35
Speaker 5: percent increase, almost double. Hopefully you can figure it out
8:39
Speaker 5: with your vendor base. Maybe they take some, maybe you
8:41
Speaker 5: take some, maybe you change the product itself, but maybe
8:44
Speaker 5: you have to cut jobs.
8:47
Speaker 1: All right. First of all, I'm surprised that retailers are
8:50
Speaker 1: doubling the cost of their goods for retail sale. Now
8:55
Speaker 1: I get it to a certain I didn't realize retail
8:58
Speaker 1: had that much markup in it so interesting, but this
9:00
Speaker 1: will affect Let me know in the comments down below.
9:02
Speaker 1: Are you guys feeling the pressure of tariffs yet? Is
9:06
Speaker 1: it in your everyday life? Hit the comments down below
9:09
Speaker 1: because I think this is something that we really need
9:11
Speaker 1: to kind of chat into. Now. One thing to consider
9:13
Speaker 1: when you look at tariffs is how does the dollar respond?
9:17
Speaker 1: And one of the things I want to jump to
9:18
Speaker 1: is this tweet right here because it gets into a
9:20
Speaker 1: little bit more detail from the COBEC and they're talking
9:23
Speaker 1: about institutional investors that are increasingly bearish on the dollar
9:28
Speaker 1: and that asset managers now are in net short positions
9:31
Speaker 1: on the US hollar and this is up forty seven billion,
9:34
Speaker 1: so it's near as high as since twenty twenty three December.
9:37
Speaker 1: And if you look at the short exposure right now,
9:40
Speaker 1: which is doubled over the last two months, what this
9:42
Speaker 1: simply means is that we are getting positions right now
9:45
Speaker 1: where the dollar is not necessarily the best asset to hold.
9:50
Speaker 1: And this is something we talk about often, is that
9:52
Speaker 1: risk assets are the potential bell weather for the future. Now,
9:57
Speaker 1: the real question is is there a point in time
10:00
Speaker 1: in which risk assets maybe are not the assets the whole.
10:02
Speaker 1: I don't know that we will see that big of
10:05
Speaker 1: a change, especially as we start to move in because
10:07
Speaker 1: remember Bitcoin has not hit its all time high, eth
10:10
Speaker 1: has barely moved. Many of the all coins are being
10:13
Speaker 1: suppressed right now. We have a lot left in the market.
10:15
Speaker 1: I want to go to a all time gas or
10:18
Speaker 1: many time. Guests here on our show that talks about this,
10:21
Speaker 1: and this is Darius Delle Take a listen to his
10:23
Speaker 1: take one.
10:25
Speaker 6: The US already has more public sector debt than it
10:28
Speaker 6: can capitalize with its own internally generated counter And you know,
10:32
Speaker 6: I'm not calling for an imminet christ collapse or anything,
10:35
Speaker 6: but again, I think this is all part and parcel
10:37
Speaker 6: to what our long term conclusion has been on the
10:39
Speaker 6: next slide, which is the risk asset is the treasury
10:43
Speaker 6: bond market. It's not stocks, it's not gold, it's not bitcoin.
10:47
Speaker 6: And that's exactly what the market's telling you today from
10:50
Speaker 6: a year today performance perspective, there is a geopolitically driven supply,
10:54
Speaker 6: demand and balance in the treasury market.
10:56
Speaker 1: We have less.
10:57
Speaker 6: Demand and more supply, and neither political party here in
11:01
Speaker 6: the United States of America has any real political will
11:05
Speaker 6: to fix it. The best way to be exposed to
11:08
Speaker 6: financial market risk, certainly throughout the duration of afore turning
11:11
Speaker 6: poly crisis, is via risk essence, because there are very
11:15
Speaker 6: limited levers that the sovereign can pull to get itself
11:19
Speaker 6: out of this mess. Grow your way out of the mess.
11:22
Speaker 6: There's print your way out of the mess, or there's
11:24
Speaker 6: cut your way out of the mess. From a fiscal
11:25
Speaker 6: lossterity perspective, we just saw their willingness to do number
11:29
Speaker 6: three is very low. So guess what they're going to
11:31
Speaker 6: try number two, Grow their way out of the mess.
11:34
Speaker 6: When that fails, guess what they're going to do.
11:36
Speaker 1: Yeah. So there you have it, guys, this is the
11:38
Speaker 1: only answer, and we are in the early stages of
11:42
Speaker 1: this cycle to actually resolve in the way that Darius
11:45
Speaker 1: has been talking about. To hear him say that, though,
11:47
Speaker 1: is a bit surprising because Darius has been a very
11:49
Speaker 1: big conservative and very pro bonds for quite some time.
11:53
Speaker 1: And I think the point, and this is the point
11:55
Speaker 1: we make all the time, is that at some situation
11:58
Speaker 1: in the very near future, on how this bill goes through,
12:01
Speaker 1: the tax bill and how we end up adding to
12:04
Speaker 1: the US deficit, this is really going to be the
12:07
Speaker 1: next move going forward in terms of how the FED
12:10
Speaker 1: is going to respond, and if you look at what
12:12
Speaker 1: the FED is doing and how this plays out, I
12:15
Speaker 1: think the one scenario that we have to really consider
12:19
Speaker 1: is whether or not Trump is going to cut. I'm
12:22
Speaker 1: chair Pal is going to cut, and Trump is going
12:24
Speaker 1: to continue to put pressure on him. This of course
12:27
Speaker 1: a story that Trump is of course slamming chair Pal
12:30
Speaker 1: again and the reason he's doing this. It continues down
12:34
Speaker 1: the same issue, and I think it is the point
12:37
Speaker 1: that Trump realizes that there is no way out and
12:41
Speaker 1: the only way to do this is to lower interest
12:44
Speaker 1: because of the fact that we're going to see a
12:46
Speaker 1: continued rise in the deficit. This is good for digital
12:49
Speaker 1: asset guys. This is good for bitcoin, it's good for ethereum,
12:52
Speaker 1: it's good for a lot of these emerging assets that
12:55
Speaker 1: are starting to move in the market, and that in
12:57
Speaker 1: itself will start to trigger a lot more going forward.
13:00
Speaker 1: So be aware, guys, we have a lot happening right now.
13:04
Speaker 1: Just to give you an example though this tweet right here,
13:06
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of US consumers now expect an increase
13:10
Speaker 1: in unemployment over the next twelve months. So this is
13:12
Speaker 1: a high share since two thousand and eight. This is
13:15
Speaker 1: the thing that concerns me when we look at the
13:18
Speaker 1: FED being stubborn and also the fact that we potentially
13:22
Speaker 1: could see a rise in unemployment. These are not good
13:26
Speaker 1: signals for how America is going to be come back
13:31
Speaker 1: much stronger. Interesting times ahead for sure. Now think about this,
13:36
Speaker 1: and that is look at the rest of the world,
13:39
Speaker 1: what the EU is doing, Look at what China is doing,
13:42
Speaker 1: look at what even Japan has been doing. And I
13:45
Speaker 1: will go to a clip real quick because this will
13:47
Speaker 1: get into how the EU is addressing this situation. Take
13:50
Speaker 1: a look.
13:51
Speaker 7: The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key
13:55
Speaker 7: ECB interest rates by twenty five basis points. In particular,
14:00
Speaker 7: the decision to lower the deposit facility rate, the rate
14:03
Speaker 7: through which we steer the monetary policy stance, is based
14:08
Speaker 7: on our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics
14:13
Speaker 7: of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
14:18
Speaker 7: While the uncertainty surrounding trade policies is expected to weigh
14:23
Speaker 7: on business investment and exports, especially in the short term,
14:28
Speaker 7: rising government investment in defense and infrastructure will increasingly support
14:34
Speaker 7: growth over the medium term. A further escalation of trade
14:39
Speaker 7: tensions over the coming months would result in growth and
14:43
Speaker 7: inflation being below the baseline projections.
14:48
Speaker 1: All right, two things there that concern me the fact
14:52
Speaker 1: that they are starting to lower rates, they are getting
14:54
Speaker 1: into the printing zone, and they're also considering a model
14:58
Speaker 1: in which growth would stay. Simulate how that economy might grow. Now,
15:02
Speaker 1: there's only a couple of ways that growth will happen.
15:04
Speaker 1: Part of it may end up in military spending, which
15:08
Speaker 1: concerns me because that means they need a war, and
15:10
Speaker 1: that is a concern for more geopolitical issues when you
15:15
Speaker 1: think about the rest of the world. With that and
15:20
Speaker 1: the consideration of other key things that are happening right now,
15:23
Speaker 1: it appears that there are several strategies that are starting
15:27
Speaker 1: to deploy. And you know we've been talking about this
15:30
Speaker 1: for quite a while. Is that obviously the ETF strategy
15:32
Speaker 1: of institutional capital coming into ETFs. That's one. This move
15:37
Speaker 1: right here, let me show you something real quick, because
15:39
Speaker 1: this right here surprised even me, and that is the
15:43
Speaker 1: situation of JP Morgan jumping into accepting bitcoin as loan collateral. Now,
15:48
Speaker 1: we kind of knew that there would be more of
15:50
Speaker 1: this coming. I think the point that they're getting at
15:53
Speaker 1: right here, the bank officially or will initially offer financings
15:58
Speaker 1: crypto ETFs and that I will again begin with I
16:01
Speaker 1: shares Bitcoin trust and then they're going to move to
16:04
Speaker 1: the traditional asset. This is huge because this is one
16:08
Speaker 1: of things I think holds back traditional investors from going
16:13
Speaker 1: specifically into bitcoin. And eventually when you go into bitcoin
16:17
Speaker 1: as a collateral class, guess what's next. Yes, ethereum will
16:21
Speaker 1: be next, then possibly some of the blue chips. One
16:24
Speaker 1: other thing that I want to hit on before I
16:25
Speaker 1: let you guys go, and I've got another clip for
16:27
Speaker 1: you that I want you to take a look at.
16:29
Speaker 1: But obviously this Circle IPO is going to be pretty significant.
16:32
Speaker 1: I think the one thing you get I'll watch. I
16:34
Speaker 1: don't know that I would necessarily invest in Circle right now,
16:37
Speaker 1: but it is one that we are seeing that remember
16:41
Speaker 1: when coinbase went out in twenty twenty one, everybody kind
16:44
Speaker 1: of looked at that was okay, this is the top
16:47
Speaker 1: and if you think about it, what's happening, go right
16:50
Speaker 1: now and the move I'll zoom in right there. The
16:54
Speaker 1: overall crypto market in comparison to twenty twenty one, the
16:57
Speaker 1: landscape is in a very different place. I do totally
17:00
Speaker 1: agree with that, and the fact that we've seen it
17:03
Speaker 1: all high on Bitcoin, but we haven't even seen all
17:06
Speaker 1: coins really running in and we haven't seen Ethereum running
17:09
Speaker 1: So Coinbase everything was on the move when they went public.
17:14
Speaker 1: So remember, and let's not forget Coinbase went ridiculously high,
17:19
Speaker 1: then absolutely cratered overall. Could that happen to Circle? Let
17:24
Speaker 1: me know what you guys think. Drop some comments down below,
17:27
Speaker 1: because I think that's the thing that we're watching right now.
17:30
Speaker 1: One last thing I want to get to, which is
17:32
Speaker 1: kind of interesting, and that is with all of this
17:34
Speaker 1: happening and where the market currently is, these major strides
17:40
Speaker 1: forward of banks accepting cryptocurrency on loans, the EU lowering rates,
17:46
Speaker 1: and printing Powell may be going to be forced into
17:50
Speaker 1: it through the issues of labor and possibly more pressure
17:53
Speaker 1: from the Trump administration. What does that do to markets? Well,
17:57
Speaker 1: Tom Lee thinks were set up for a melt up
17:59
Speaker 1: take a lot loo.
18:00
Speaker 8: You'd think that with the S and P doing well
18:02
Speaker 8: this week and a great may investors are bullish, they
18:06
Speaker 8: are not. In our calls and zooms with portfolio managers,
18:10
Speaker 8: many are still cautious because they see tariff risks ahead
18:14
Speaker 8: and they don't have teriff resolution in hand, and they
18:17
Speaker 8: can't get bullish. I think the feedback we get from
18:21
Speaker 8: a lot of folks is they think stocks shouldn't be rising.
18:24
Speaker 8: So I would say, given the amount of cash on
18:26
Speaker 8: the sidelines, the fact that short interest is going up,
18:29
Speaker 8: and we have a quiet week and markets are rallying,
18:32
Speaker 8: I think the risk is now of a substantial leg
18:35
Speaker 8: up rally from here, all right, A.
18:38
Speaker 1: Couple points here, leg up rally, a lot of conservative
18:42
Speaker 1: moves from traditional investors, not necessarily from the digital asset side.
18:48
Speaker 1: We did a poll over on our telegram, which, by
18:51
Speaker 1: the way, if you guys aren't in our telegram, use
18:52
Speaker 1: our link down below because I'm constantly conversing with you
18:56
Speaker 1: guys there, and I love your feedback too, because we
18:58
Speaker 1: have a lot of conversations about where the market is,
19:01
Speaker 1: what's moving, how you would play this scenario. And the
19:04
Speaker 1: poll I had yesterday around this was are you barish
19:08
Speaker 1: or bullish with the consideration of what we're seeing in
19:11
Speaker 1: terms of pressure with tariffs, not necessarily certainty around the
19:15
Speaker 1: stable coin just yet, and the fact that we got
19:18
Speaker 1: this tax bill looming bearish, and it was over seventy
19:21
Speaker 1: percent of the market. And that's a digital asset owner, guys.
19:24
Speaker 1: So if you're watching right now, jump into that group.
19:27
Speaker 1: Let me know what you guys think. Is this bullish
19:29
Speaker 1: or bearish? Obviously you saw Tom Lee right there thinking
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Speaker 1: that we are in a position for big growth. If
19:33
Speaker 1: you're not in the diamond circle, get in right there.
19:36
Speaker 1: That's the place where you can get all of additional
19:38
Speaker 1: content from us that we don't air here on the show.
19:41
Speaker 1: Of course, you can follow me out there on X
19:43
Speaker 1: at Paul Baron. I'll catch you next time right here
19:45
Speaker 1: on tech Bath