Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Austria’s Neutrality and My Ukraine Peace Agreement: Handshakes vs. Treaties
Transcript
- 0:01Alrighty then, very sorry about that.
- 0:05Hello, good evening and welcome.
- 0:07This is Samuel Trapp.
- 0:09This is International Flavor you are listening to.
- 0:13We are on DAM Radio.
- 0:14You can listen to me every night on DAM Radio from 9pm to 10.30pm Central Time,
- 0:22Chicago Time that is.
- 0:25And we have listeners from around the world, so I want to point that out.
- 0:29I'm still coming to you live from Moscow.
- 0:33I still sound like I'm in a little bit of a tube because this is not a studio,
- 0:37it is an apartment that I am in.
- 0:41And using the apartment for my little mini studio.
- 0:47Had an eventful day today, went downtown Moscow again.
- 0:50It's my last day in Moscow.
- 0:52Tomorrow night take a train back to Belarus and then leave from there back to
- 1:00Miami in a day or two and be back in the States in a little bit.
- 1:06I like to hit the ground running when I get there, got plenty of things I need
- 1:10to take care of when I do get there.
- 1:13So, kind of looking forward to that.
- 1:15Had quite an eventful day today.
- 1:18Did get to go to the Pushkin Museum of Fine Art, which was really pretty damn
- 1:26cool.
- 1:27And I never schedule enough time for those things.
- 1:30And that building is huge, they have tons of huge sarcophagi, they had huge
- 1:39statues from 500-600 BC from Greek Roman times.
- 1:44I mean, it was an incredible thing to see and nowhere near enough time.
- 1:51But that isn't what the show is about tonight, just a kind of a tourist
- 1:55attraction.
- 1:56But like I said on yesterday's show, it would be really nice to be able to
- 2:03share cultures, share experiences, and use that as a method to get rid
- 2:12of the conflicts that we have.
- 2:15I'm not one of those touchy-feely, limp-wristed, hey let's all get together and
- 2:21sing Kumbaya.
- 2:22I also believe that sometimes you have to stand up for yourself and that war is
- 2:28an unfortunate reality.
- 2:30But it has dragged on for quite a while and it really needs to end but we also
- 2:38have to understand that just because people disagree on one thing doesn't mean
- 2:42they're the Antichrist on the other.
- 2:44I encourage you to go back and listen to my show about Woody Allen being placed
- 2:49on the kill list for Ukraine, which I think is nonsense.
- 2:54I had a Ukrainian guy tell me that's not a kill list, that's just enemies of
- 2:58Ukraine.
- 3:00We've talked to about that.
- 3:02I don't know what to call it.
- 3:04I wanted to look it up online and see if I could actually find it
- 3:13and see what it says.
- 3:17Here's the Mira Tvorits center.
- 3:22Mira Tvorits dot center.
- 3:26It's pulling up, maybe it is.
- 3:28I was going to go look at it because I never did go look.
- 3:32You know what?
- 3:33I feel bad about that because I always say don't take people's word for stuff
- 3:37and guess what I just did?
- 3:39I didn't finish the research on going on the Mira Tvorits list and make sure
- 3:45that Woody Allen is put on there with a picture with something on his face.
- 3:52Yeah, it's written in Ukrainian.
- 3:54It's a center of Poslidivania Poslidivania.
- 4:01I don't read Ukrainian, unfortunately.
- 4:03Non-government center for research of elements of crimes against the national
- 4:08security of Ukraine, peace, humanity, and international law.
- 4:12Information for law enforcement authorities and special services about pro
- 4:17-Russian terrorists, separatists, mercenaries, war criminals, and murderers.
- 4:25Langley, Virginia, USA, Warsaw, Polska, email protected.
- 4:31And then it has all these things in Ukrainian.
- 4:37I'm going to have to look into this.
- 4:38I might have to do another whole thing just on this stupid website.
- 4:49I don't see anything recent on here.
- 4:51This could be a different website.
- 4:53I'm going to have to look into it a little bit more.
- 4:55Maybe somebody that listens might know.
- 4:57And I got kind of sidetracked with that anyway.
- 4:59I wasn't really going to go there.
- 5:01I just remembered that when I had said something about it I wanted to make sure
- 5:05that I wasn't talking out of my rear end and find that they had the internet
- 5:11site that listed properly that shows the actual
- 5:21site.
- 5:21Yeah, no, the URL in Wikipedia says it's miratorys.center and it's written in
- 5:28Ukrainian.
- 5:29And according to Wikipedia anyway, which is in Russian, it says the site
- 5:37publishes the personal information of those who have fought on the center of
- 5:43the separatists or support the control of Russian Federation of DNR and
- 5:53LNR, Donetsk and Lugansk.
- 5:56And I might have to get into that a little bit more when we go a little bit
- 6:00further into it.
- 6:01I think I will.
- 6:02But that is not tonight's topic.
- 6:07Tonight's topic I wanted to get to and I'm going to share this article with you
- 6:12first.
- 6:16There's been a lot of news today and there's, for example, US telling Denmark
- 6:23to calm down over the Greenland thing.
- 6:27Ukrainians, young ones, running to leave the country to get out.
- 6:32A huge rush on the border right now.
- 6:36The EU is mulling neutral status for Ukraine's ceasefire or states.
- 6:43Brussels is calling for pipeline security after Ukraine strikes key routes.
- 6:48The Moldovan politicians that face extradition ahead of key elections.
- 6:54Ukraine conflict is Modi's war, says Trump now.
- 6:59Well, a Trump aide.
- 7:02Let's see.
- 7:03The one I wanted to get to a series of huge bombing.
- 7:09A ship was sunk on the Ukrainian side.
- 7:11Russians sank a Ukrainian Navy ship with a drone ship, actually.
- 7:19Let's see.
- 7:21But most importantly, there's a story by a guy named Dmitry Medvedev.
- 7:29Now, I've always said that if you don't like Vladimir Putin, wait around a bit.
- 7:40When he's gone, you may get something quite a bit worse.
- 7:45You may pray for the days that a calm and reasonable man like Vladimir was
- 7:51running the show and that you didn't get a big talking guy that isn't afraid
- 8:00to swing his wiener talking about war.
- 8:11I'm not saying anything bad about Medvedev.
- 8:14I think he's extremely intelligent.
- 8:16I've watched a lot of his stuff.
- 8:18His speech at the St. Petersburg legal conference that took place several
- 8:24months ago, I think I may have reported that to you as well.
- 8:27It was a well-written, a very nice speech.
- 8:29I listened to the whole thing.
- 8:31The guy's very smart.
- 8:33He goes in-depth on a lot of things.
- 8:36Well, he wrote an article today.
- 8:39Or it was published today.
- 8:40God knows when he wrote it, but who really cares?
- 8:43The article's by Dmitry Medvedev, and I'm going to share it with you because
- 8:47we're going to talk about a bunch of this stuff tonight.
- 8:50I've done a good amount of research on this, and I want to go through all of
- 8:57this with you because there's some important points the guy makes.
- 9:03There's some important things that we all disagree with or we can disagree
- 9:10with.
- 9:10Everybody has their own opinion on this stuff on the other end of the planet.
- 9:14That's us.
- 9:16But Dmitry Medvedev is a powerful man in Russia, and Dmitry Medvedev is a very
- 9:20smart man, and Dmitry Medvedev is an influential man, and Dmitry Medvedev is
- 9:25also a guy who doesn't give a rip.
- 9:29He's like Donald Trump on steroids.
- 9:35Imagine that.
- 9:37Or think about Dmitry Medvedev.
- 9:40He's not afraid to say things the way he thinks they are.
- 9:43And if you can, go back and listen to his speech at the legal conference, the
- 9:47legal forum in St. Petersburg.
- 9:49I think I want to go to that next year.
- 9:51I think I'd love to go to that, and I might try to, both as an attorney.
- 9:57I've got some things in the work on that.
- 9:59I might get my license back.
- 10:01And the other thing is, I'm not really in the mood to practice law, but it'd be
- 10:05nice to have it back.
- 10:07And the other part would be to go as a journalist and listen to the stories.
- 10:14I'm going to give you an analysis of some of the things he brings up in this
- 10:17article, because when I read the article this morning, it really got me
- 10:21thinking.
- 10:22And that's a scary thing, when you can get me thinking, because then it has me
- 10:27going and taking some arguments.
- 10:30And I did some arguments today.
- 10:31Frankly, I was arguing part of the time with my AI monster.
- 10:36And so I have this cool AI program that does some legal research for me and
- 10:41does some stuff like that.
- 10:42And I was arguing with it.
- 10:47And I've trained it to talk to me.
- 10:49Anyway, call me about that if you're interested.
- 10:53I might be able to sell you a platform.
- 10:54At any rate, I'm going to read this article to you by Dmitry Medvedev, because
- 11:00it's a very interesting article.
- 11:03Now take this from the point of view.
- 11:04These are not my words.
- 11:06These are the words of Dmitry Medvedev.
- 11:08And he's talking about Austria.
- 11:10Now, my last name is Trapp.
- 11:12My last name used to be von Trapp years and years ago.
- 11:15My brother Matthew, who also has a show on damradio.com on Sunday nights, is my
- 11:22brother.
- 11:23And he changed his name back to von Trapp because we were von Trapp years and
- 11:27years ago.
- 11:28When our family came to America, we were von Trapp.
- 11:31And that was before the 1900s, if I follow my mother's genealogy history well,
- 11:42which sometimes I don't.
- 11:43Sorry about that, Mom.
- 11:44But the fact is that my roots are Austrian German, right?
- 11:51And when I was in high school, I learned a little bit of German.
- 11:55And I always liked the family von Trapp.
- 11:59We met.
- 12:01She would never in a billion years have remembered anything about me.
- 12:06She might have remembered my mother, you know, because we went and saw her at a
- 12:10college or a university where she gave a speech.
- 12:13And my mom went up to her afterward, told her we were all there.
- 12:16And I happened to be there and met her and saw who she was.
- 12:20At any rate, she'd never in a billion years remember that.
- 12:23But it's a my history is Austrian.
- 12:29And so I'm here, Dmitry Medvedev gave an article about Austria and about
- 12:33neutrality.
- 12:34And this is where we're going.
- 12:36And he was giving warnings to people because the title of my show tonight is
- 12:43about broken promises and what you do diplomatically and what America has done
- 12:50historically diplomatically just sucks.
- 12:53At least in the last 30 to 50 years, we suck.
- 12:57And we suck because we say one thing and do another.
- 13:02We encourage people to make deals and then do something else.
- 13:07Then when things don't go our way or we decide to change our mind, we throw a
- 13:11million lawyers at it.
- 13:12And those lawyers go, we never said that.
- 13:15Or is it in writing?
- 13:16And I'm going to go into some of that tonight, which is why if you're Russia or
- 13:21if you're China or if you're India or if you're Brazil, if you're anybody that
- 13:26thinks that the U.S. hegemony should be something different than what it is,
- 13:31Americans, I want you to take a strong look in the mirror because we're
- 13:34diplomats, but we screw people.
- 13:38We screw them and we do it on purpose.
- 13:41And diplomacy doesn't mean a whole lot to us.
- 13:44We make treaties that we break.
- 13:47We make gentleman's arrangements to trick people.
- 13:52We've been doing that forever.
- 13:53Now, it's a big and a nasty game.
- 13:56People go, oh, gee, Sam, you were a lawyer.
- 13:58Why in the world are you talking about that?
- 14:00Well, I'm talking about it because you're not supposed to have to have a lawyer
- 14:07to manage the relationship between you and your wife.
- 14:12But you do half the time, don't you?
- 14:15You're not supposed to have to have a lawyer to manage the relationship between
- 14:19you and your business partner.
- 14:22But you do, don't you?
- 14:24Wouldn't it be nice if you could just go and shake hands with somebody or marry
- 14:29them till death do you part and be true and honest and up front with them
- 14:36instead of playing games, political backroom deal games.
- 14:44Well, I suppose it is the big boy world of diplomacy, if that's what we're
- 14:50going to call it, that makes it just okay to, I don't know, behave this way in
- 14:59the political sphere.
- 15:00And with that as the backdrop and my discussions, this could be a deep dive
- 15:08that I could do a show and a half on this.
- 15:12And I got kind of on a roll on it earlier today after reading this article.
- 15:16So first, let me share his article because it's an intriguing article.
- 15:20Here it starts.
- 15:22The countries of the old world are intoxicated by militaristic frenzy.
- 15:27Like spellbound moths, they flock to the destructive flame of the North
- 15:32Atlantic Alliance.
- 15:34Until recently, Europe still had states that understood security could be
- 15:39ensured without joining a military bloc.
- 15:42Now, reason is giving way to herd instinct.
- 15:47Following Finland and Sweden, Austria's establishment, egged on by bloodthirsty
- 15:54Brussels, the EU, is fueling public debate about abandoning its
- 15:59constitutionally enshrined neutrality in favor of NATO membership.
- 16:06Austrian society is far from enthusiastic about this idea.
- 16:10The new Austria Liberal Party, led by Foreign Minister Bate Minnelreisinger and
- 16:16eager to embrace the bloc, has won less than 10% of the vote in the last
- 16:23election.
- 16:24By contrast, the opposition Freedom Party of Austria, which opposes firmly,
- 16:31blindly copying Brussels' militaristic agenda, received support from 37% of the
- 16:39citizens.
- 16:40But in today's Europe, when has the will of the people truly stood in the way?
- 16:46Efforts to erode Austria's neutrality have been underway for quite some time.
- 16:53As far back as the 90s, local revisionists began building military ties under
- 16:59the guise of participation in the EU's common security and defense policy.
- 17:07Until 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon came into force.
- 17:15It was mostly empty talk, coordinating military development among EU states,
- 17:21but with no binding obligation.
- 17:24Afterward, the argument shifted.
- 17:27The treaty didn't specify the scope or timing of the assistance that united
- 17:35Europe was obligated to provide in the event of an attack.
- 17:38And in any case, the EU was officially regarded as an economic union.
- 17:45The fact that most of its members already belonged to NATO was conveniently
- 17:50left unfed.
- 17:52At the same time, Austria is expanding its military presence beyond Europe,
- 17:58taking part in EU training missions and raising its profile in Brussels.
- 18:06And it was generally rewarded for doing so.
- 18:10From 2022 to 2025, the chair of the EU's military committee was held by
- 18:19Austrian General Robert Brieger.
- 18:23How's that neutrality for you?
- 18:26The Austrians hadn't shown so brightly on a European military stage since World
- 18:31War II, when Wehrmacht Colonel General Lothar Rendulic and Erhard Raus and
- 18:38Luftwaffe Commander Alexander Lohr distinguished themselves.
- 18:43I would add here, and when Colonel Captain von Trapp abandoned the Austrian
- 18:51slash Fuhrer's Navy and ran to the United States.
- 18:59So, he continues, as the EU was expanding its defense capability, Austria is
- 19:07quietly undergoing militarization and natalization.
- 19:12Vienna participated in the alliance's partnership for peace, while the country
- 19:17is already de facto a component of the bloc's logic.
- 19:21Austria, despite not being a NATO member, has become a key transit territory
- 19:28for the bloc.
- 19:29In 2024, it was traversed by more than 3,000 NATO military vehicles, and its
- 19:39airspace accommodated 5,000 plus NATO flights.
- 19:45Against this, opinions were voiced in Vienna that faltering pacifist consensus
- 19:51and the new Russian threat offer a historic opportunity to break free from
- 19:58shackles of the past, namely to scrap neutrality, yet neutrality is woven into
- 20:07the fabric of Austria's statehood, re-engineered by allied powers after World
- 20:14War II.
- 20:15Now, he gets a little, he gets into three agreements right here, and this is
- 20:19what got me interested in what I researched on this today, because I knew about
- 20:25this, but remember, Austria got its statehood back.
- 20:30It didn't get taken from them and overrun and placed by somebody else.
- 20:34They got to do it themselves by signing or putting these documents in place, or
- 20:40saying what they were going to do, because Russia didn't want Austria to be a
- 20:47free nation after that.
- 20:49Russia had no desire for that after World War II.
- 20:53So, they say, and so does Medvedev, citing history here, that neutrality is
- 20:58woven into the very fabric of Austria's statehood.
- 21:01It is enshrined in three binding, he says, 1955 documents.
- 21:08The Moscow Memorandum, a memorandum is generally not binding, but I get the
- 21:16point, you know, of what they're saying.
- 21:18The State Treaty for the Reestablishment of an Independent and Democratic
- 21:23Austria, document number two.
- 21:27And document number three, Austria's own Federal Constitutional Act on
- 21:33Permanent Neutrality.
- 21:35That one's a big one, okay?
- 21:37These documents are the country's legal foundation.
- 21:41I agree with Amir, because they are the legal foundation after World War II.
- 21:46Should these be removed, the entire edifice of the Austrian statehood is bound
- 21:51to collapse.
- 21:54What is there to do for Moscow, which was one of the architects of modern
- 22:00Austria?
- 22:00They had to agree to it to allow this to happen.
- 22:03The answer is to give enthusiasts of war hysteria a slap on the wrist within
- 22:09the framework of international law.
- 22:11The answer is to two key questions.
- 22:14Whether Austria has the right to unilaterally renounce its legislatively
- 22:18enshrined neutrality, and whether it can independently decide to join NATO, are
- 22:24both unequivocally negative.
- 22:28Article 27 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties states explicitly
- 22:34that no provisions of a country's internal law may serve as justification for
- 22:42violation of an international treaty.
- 22:46Now, do you get that to make sure that you do?
- 22:50So, the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties says that if you have a treaty
- 22:57basically with another country, you can't cite your internal law to say, well,
- 23:05we don't have to follow that treaty because the people didn't vote on it.
- 23:10So, you take America as an example.
- 23:13The president signs a treaty, and it gets ratified.
- 23:19Then, you can't come along and say, well, we no longer agree with that treaty,
- 23:24so there you go.
- 23:26There has to be ways in the treaty for how to get out of it like any other
- 23:29contract, right?
- 23:31So, that's number one.
- 23:33Also, NATO cannot be considered a regional organization of collective defense,
- 23:39and therefore joining the alliance won't grant a permanently neutral state the
- 23:47same benefits as its guaranteed neutrality.
- 23:52Now, that makes sense, too.
- 23:53So, if you're guaranteed neutral, nobody can mess with you, and nobody would.
- 23:57But if you join the alliance, you won't have that same neutrality.
- 24:02So, that makes sense.
- 24:04These provisions are recognized by respected figures versed in the issue.
- 24:08For example, former Austrian foreign minister, Karin Niesel, I hope I said that
- 24:15right, now head of the Gorky Center at St. Petersburg State University,
- 24:24stresses that altering the status quo of neutrality requires the consent of all
- 24:30the allied powers that signed the 1955 treaty, including Russia as the legal
- 24:38successor of the USSR. So, there's a 1955 treaty.
- 24:44Moscow retains the right to veto Vienna's move down the NATO path.
- 24:50Right?
- 24:52The hawkish faction of Austria's elite must grasp the full scale of foreign
- 24:58policy losses that would follow from abandoning neutrality and to join NATO.
- 25:04Today, Vienna is a hub.
- 25:05Now, this is important.
- 25:07Pay attention to this.
- 25:09For multilateral diplomacy hosting around 20 intergovernmental organizations.
- 25:18This ensures its engagement in global processes and the development of legal
- 25:23frameworks to address emerging challenges and threats.
- 25:27So, the decision to establish these offices of the United Nations,
- 25:33International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, OPEC, and OSCE
- 25:43in Vienna is predicated on the non-aligned status of Austria, which provides an
- 25:53effective platform for dialogue and regional cooperation.
- 25:56Think about this.
- 25:57If you wanted a neutral place to have a negotiation
- 26:07with Ukraine and Russia and Austria is neutral, Russia can go there.
- 26:14And Russia, you know, or OPEC can go there.
- 26:18Its neutrality has been what has attracted these big time international
- 26:24organizations to being there because you can get everyone to agree on Austria
- 26:29because Austria is neutral.
- 26:33Take away that neutrality, join NATO, and suddenly you don't have that.
- 26:38And they're going to want to move all these organizations.
- 26:42Replacing neutrality with a block mentality undermines the spirit of Vienna and
- 26:48makes it impossible for Austria to maintain balanced relations with diverse
- 26:53international partners.
- 26:55As a result, Austria is losing its unique role as a mediator and a hub for
- 27:02international institution.
- 27:04This leads to an obvious conclusion.
- 27:07It is time to consider relocating international organizations headquarters to
- 27:13countries in the global south and east.
- 27:18How about that?
- 27:19That can provide the necessary conditions for their work.
- 27:24Adding to all of this, Austria's militaristic turn is shattering its peacemaker
- 27:30image, curtailing its sovereign room for maneuver.
- 27:35Instead, it significantly increases the risk that Austria's Bundesheer unit may
- 27:42find themselves included in Russian armed forces' long-range mission plans.
- 27:49A package of countermeasures was adopted against Sweden and Finland after they
- 27:56joined NATO and Austria should not expect any exceptions here.
- 28:03Now that is the article written by Dmitry Medvedev that I read this morning.
- 28:10And that article got me churning a little bit and thinking about a few things.
- 28:18And so, I began to look into those three legal foundations
- 28:30given by Dmitry Medvedev as oh,
- 28:40I just watched, I just saw the video pop up again on the naval drone that took
- 28:45out the Ukraine, sunk a Ukrainian ship today.
- 28:50That's unfortunate.
- 28:51Sorry, those people are past, I know they lost at least one or two soldiers and
- 28:57quite a few they were still searching for.
- 28:59So, who can tell what happened in there?
- 29:02But let's talk about these treaties that we were discussing.
- 29:08And remember, the foreign minister of Austria, just what he's responding to,
- 29:13what this article that Dmitry Medvedev wrote is really about is because in late
- 29:20July and a little bit since then, Austria said it might abandon neutrality for
- 29:29NATO membership according to its own foreign minister.
- 29:35So, Austria should be ready to discuss its potential membership in NATO, said
- 29:42foreign minister Biddy Meinl-Reisinger.
- 29:46She said that joining is unlikely to gain major public parliamentary support.
- 29:54But he is talking about that.
- 29:56In an interview with DeWalt, Dmitry Medvedev is anyway, published on Saturday,
- 30:02the foreign minister she said, spoke about what she described as an
- 30:07increasingly aggressive Russia.
- 30:10Really.
- 30:10When she claims is reluctant to conclude a peace deal with Ukraine.
- 30:15That's BS too.
- 30:17They're reluctant to have a ceasefire.
- 30:20That's for sure.
- 30:22According to her, neutrality alone does not protect us.
- 30:27And that Austria should invest in its own defense capabilities and in military
- 30:33partnership.
- 30:35She is fundamentally open to public debate about Austria's future in this
- 30:40field, saying that while there's currently no majority in parliament or among
- 30:45the population for NATO membership, such debate can nevertheless be fruitful.
- 30:51It's not that I want to join NATO with flying colors, but said that the country
- 30:57could not just sit on its hands and watch the changing geopolitical landscape.
- 31:02Why not?
- 31:03If you're neutral, and anybody knows you're neutral, why can't you?
- 31:08Nonsense.
- 31:09Earlier this week, foreign ministry spokeswoman Russian Maria Zakharova accused
- 31:16Austria of abandoning its neutrality and the role as an international
- 31:22intermediary in conflicts.
- 31:26After these discussions.
- 31:29So anyway, I got to thinking about those three looks, knowing because I
- 31:35understand the point.
- 31:38I understand what Dmitry Medvedev is talking about.
- 31:43I get why he's bothered about this.
- 31:47And I don't want to say it should alarm you, you know, because it shouldn't,
- 31:54but it should it should certainly get you thinking about whether or
- 32:04not diplomacy even exists in the United States
- 32:13any longer.
- 32:16I have some, I think perhaps not.
- 32:23It's just as likely that it doesn't exist that it does.
- 32:27You know what I mean?
- 32:29And I think it would be a fool who thinks that we are not to blame for a lot of
- 32:38the nonsense going on in the world.
- 32:44So I got to thinking about this, and I went and I did some research on this.
- 32:52And remember, I think that we have been, we have made some
- 33:01mistakes, a lot of mistakes with Ukraine, with the former Soviet republics in
- 33:07the last 30, 40 years.
- 33:17So I began to research a few questions, right?
- 33:24And I came up with some models trying to figure out how to how I would end the
- 33:32war in Ukraine what my suggestions would be.
- 33:36And so the part that got me pissy about this in the very beginning is when you,
- 33:46and there are several different parts to this.
- 33:49The first one are these three documents that we were talking about.
- 33:53Okay?
- 33:54And so we want to look at his claim.
- 34:02Medvedev's claim is that Austria its federal constitutional law on its
- 34:07permanent neutrality was signed on the 26th of October of 1955.
- 34:13What it is, is Austria's own domestic constitutional act.
- 34:19Article 1 of that statute, or that constitutional act says for the purpose of
- 34:26maintaining and securing its independence, this is, remember, they're trying to
- 34:30get their country back after World War II, because Russia, you know, had taken
- 34:36it over.
- 34:37Russia didn't stay there.
- 34:39Well, the Allies too.
- 34:41Everybody was defeated.
- 34:43So for the purpose of maintaining it, Austria declares of its own free will her
- 34:51permanent neutrality.
- 34:54Austria will not join any military alliances and will not permit the
- 35:01establishment of military bases of foreign states on her territory.
- 35:06But I suppose it's okay to let them cross the territory.
- 35:10I don't know about that.
- 35:12Constitutional law passed by two-thirds majority of Parliament under Austrian
- 35:17constitutional rules, it could be repealed or amended with the same two-thirds
- 35:22vote.
- 35:23And possibly a referendum, if it's a fundamental change.
- 35:28International recognition.
- 35:30Other countries recognize Austria as neutral, but that recognition doesn't
- 35:34transform neutrality into multilateral treaty aggregation, right?
- 35:39Remember, no state's internal law can be used to violate some sort of a treaty.
- 35:45But this isn't a treaty, this is an internal law.
- 35:48The practical effect of this is that Austria has treated neutrality as
- 35:54flexible.
- 35:55It joined the EU in 1995, participates in peacekeeping, and is part of NATO's
- 36:02Partnership for Peace.
- 36:04Now, I don't know that I agree with that, but that's what they're doing, and
- 36:09that's their constitutional part.
- 36:11The state treaty, the Austrian state treaty, was signed on May 15 of 1955.
- 36:18It's a multilateral treaty signed in Vienna by Austria, the USSR, the United
- 36:26States, the UK, and France.
- 36:29It ended the occupation of Austria, restored its own sovereignty, banned
- 36:36Anschluss with Germany, outlawed Nazi groups, and restricted certain armaments.
- 36:44But this treaty does not require Austria to remain permanently neutral, and
- 36:51neutrality is not mentioned in the text.
- 36:55But Medvedev is claiming that it matters, and it does, because he's saying that
- 37:00it's a treaty, and it is.
- 37:03So historically, neutrality is a political side deal, and not a treaty clause.
- 37:11Now, this side deal is where it becomes important, because nobody does what
- 37:16they say they're going to do, right?
- 37:17You're going to be neutral.
- 37:20I just want you to make sure you understand the point of why Medvedev is
- 37:24putting this out.
- 37:25So, the Western and the Austrian view, from the West side, from the people who
- 37:32say it's okay.
- 37:33This treaty, all it did was restore neutrality was Austria's sovereign choice,
- 37:40enacted later by parliament.
- 37:42Nothing in the treaty forbids Austria from revising that law.
- 37:47But in the legal world, there's something called enticement, or inducement,
- 37:54enticing or inducing someone to sign a contract by offering something outside
- 38:02of the contract for that right.
- 38:05That's called inducement.
- 38:06And there's an act in a lot of states called fraud in the inducement.
- 38:11Now, it doesn't relate really to treaty law, but you can see where I'm going
- 38:16with it, right?
- 38:17In a treaty, this is where we get to the big boy pants and whether or not we
- 38:22should all have to hire lawyers all the time, or whether we talk diplomatically
- 38:29about things that our countries are going to talk about, or whether we are
- 38:37bound by any of the things that our diplomats speak about and say.
- 38:43Or if it's all just political BS and political rhetoric until you sign a
- 38:48treaty.
- 38:49And now, if you wish to look at this Austrian state treaty as a lawyer and go,
- 38:56yeah, I'm inventive, but there ain't anything in there about neutrality.
- 39:00If you want a neutrality, you should ask for it.
- 39:03And that's where the West is going in hiring all the lawyers.
- 39:07And that's where even the foreign minister of Austria is going and saying,
- 39:12well, that says we can't change it, so maybe we'll change and Russia's the big
- 39:17bad wolf, and so we want to make sure the big bad wolf is dealt with
- 39:21appropriately, and so we need arms.
- 39:25The Russian point of view is that because the neutrality pledge was part of a
- 39:31diplomatic package, altering it undermines the spirit of the treaty.
- 39:39So, remember, those two focuses are how they are.
- 39:44There's another memorandum.
- 39:45Now this is just a memorandum, as I told you before.
- 39:49But a memorandum usually comes along when people are getting into a deal.
- 39:54So, I sit down with you and I start making a deal to buy your restaurant.
- 40:00And as part of it, you sit down and say to me, yeah, you know, I'll consider
- 40:05selling my restaurant if we come up with the right deals.
- 40:09And in general, I'll keep talking to you if you're going to offer me more than
- 40:14a million bucks.
- 40:16I want two, but if you offer me more than one, it's worth still talking about
- 40:20until the rest all depends on the terms.
- 40:23Are you going to need this?
- 40:24What are you going to do?
- 40:26Am I going to be tied into a non-compete?
- 40:31Is there going to be anything like this?
- 40:32Can I open another restaurant right next door?
- 40:36What can I do, basically, to make sure that this memorandum of understanding is
- 40:45basically your agreement to make an agreement.
- 40:51And once the agreement is in force, the memorandum of understanding doesn't
- 40:55matter anymore anyway, in most cases.
- 40:58But sometimes they become part of the agreement.
- 41:02So this memorandum, they do the same thing in the treaty world.
- 41:06People will get together and go, you know, we want to make a defense treaty.
- 41:10Why don't we make a defense treaty and we'll get together and talk about this
- 41:13like President Trump is trying to do with Ukraine and with Russia and go, we
- 41:18want to make a peace treaty.
- 41:19Let's do it.
- 41:19Let's get together and start talking.
- 41:21And here are the outlines.
- 41:23Here are the parameters.
- 41:24We want the war stopped, period.
- 41:26Are we all on the same page?
- 41:28Yep, we all want the war stopped.
- 41:29Well, if that's your memorandum of understanding, we're going to get together
- 41:33and we're going to talk to stop the war.
- 41:37But if you have all these other terms and conditions that have to be met before
- 41:40you can stop the war, then that makes it a little more difficult, right?
- 41:47So that's a memorandum of understanding, just so you know.
- 41:51But what it is, it's a political declaration in the treaty side that is signed
- 41:55in Moscow, the one in 15 April 1955, right in the same time when they were
- 42:00getting their own country back, Austria.
- 42:04It was signed between Moscow and the Austrian leaders and the USSR. Austria
- 42:11promised it would declare permanent neutrality after regaining sovereignty.
- 42:20But the legal force of it, it is not a binding multilateral treaty.
- 42:27It was a condition Moscow demanded before agreeing to the state treaty, but the
- 42:34neutrality itself was implemented later through the Austrian domestic law.
- 42:39So here we are.
- 42:40Russia always accuses us of saying one thing and doing another, or using lawyer
- 42:46tricks to get out of stuff because they don't agree with it.
- 42:51Now, hard to fault them on that, except you go, well, sorry, we're the big bad
- 42:58bullies on the block and we've always had the better lawyers.
- 43:01I don't know if that's true or not.
- 43:03I'm just saying that.
- 43:03And it looks like your lawyers screwed up and you should have added this into
- 43:09the treaty itself.
- 43:10It's like, wait a minute.
- 43:11You said it even came inside this memorandum of understanding.
- 43:15It says what you're going to do.
- 43:17But you want to know why Moscow doesn't believe anybody.
- 43:21You can go all the way back to this.
- 43:23Because that's the way it works.
- 43:25Nobody ever does what they say they're going to do.
- 43:27It's politics, right?
- 43:28They don't have to.
- 43:30And they never do.
- 43:31At any rate, that is where that memorandum of understanding came in, but it's
- 43:38not a binding legal document.
- 43:43In the Austrian view, especially today, because remember, this is 70 years ago,
- 43:47the Austrian view is that Parliament characterizes the memorandum as a
- 43:55political agreement, not a source of enforceable international law.
- 44:02Right?
- 44:03It does not give Russia or any other state a formal veto over future Austrian
- 44:11constitutional changes.
- 44:14And remember, George Bush, too, told Russia, it's like, yeah, well, none of
- 44:20those treaties count anyway, because USSR isn't around anymore.
- 44:26And so there's people that would make that argument also.
- 44:29But the Russian view is that Russia is the successor to the USSR. And that
- 44:34Moscow treats it as part of the overall 1955 settlement.
- 44:40It implies that any change would violate international commitments to Russia.
- 44:46So those are the three agreements that we are talking about.
- 44:50And so there was the Moscow Memorandum in April 1955, the Austrian State
- 44:57Treaty, and also in May of 1955, and this Federal Constitutional Law of Austria
- 45:03on the 26th of October in 1955.
- 45:06Right?
- 45:06So here's the Medvedev's article that I shared with you.
- 45:13His position is that neutrality is locked in by these three overlapping
- 45:17documents.
- 45:18It's a Soviet-Austria memorandum, a multilateral treaty, and a constitutional
- 45:23law.
- 45:24He says they create an international obligation that cannot be revoked
- 45:31unilaterally.
- 45:32But the legal reality is that only a third of the Federal Constitutional Law
- 45:37actually binds Austria today.
- 45:41The Vienna Convention of Article 27, Medvedev cites it as saying the internal
- 45:46law can't justify breaking an international law.
- 45:49But that's not really what it says.
- 45:51But since neutrality wasn't written into the state treaty anyway, there's no
- 45:55treaty being broken if Austria amends its internal domestic constitutional law.
- 46:02So Russia has what they would call strong political arguments saying that
- 46:08nobody ever does what they say they're going to do and you guys are doing.
- 46:11But the legal arguments are probably lacking.
- 46:15Okay?
- 46:16Austria can repeal its neutrality by constitutional amendment.
- 46:20Russia can retaliate politically and militarily, but it could not invoke a
- 46:24binding international veto.
- 46:27Okay?
- 46:28So that's the scoop of where that comes from.
- 46:34Where are we going to go here?
- 46:40Neutrality isn't in the treaty and so therefore it's not being broken.
- 46:46In American sources, well, let's start with Russia's argument first.
- 46:51Theirs is all political.
- 46:53We helped engineer or re-engineer Austrian independence so we should have a say
- 46:59in what happens if they choose to join NATO just like we thought we had a say
- 47:07when Ukraine was getting especially if this fight is continuing to this
- 47:12hegemonic fight against the world is going on by NATO still and they want to
- 47:18expand NATO to Indonesia for God's sake and to Korea and to places like that.
- 47:25So the State Department, what do they say?
- 47:30State Department historians and archives say they see neutrality as Austria's
- 47:36free choice.
- 47:38A legal view would be not a Soviet imposed condition of any kind.
- 47:43So basically, Russia has political leverage, but that's all.
- 47:49And no legal veto apartment.
- 47:52Now the next part of his article is these countermeasures.
- 47:57And let's talk about what happened from Sweden and Finland.
- 48:02So Sweden and Finland they joined NATO quickly and were accepted
- 48:11quickly after Russia moved into Ukraine.
- 48:15That was political BS.
- 48:17Finland never needed it anyway.
- 48:19Sweden didn't need it either to be truthful and nobody was in any fear of any
- 48:26kind that Russia was going to join in and say something or do something against
- 48:35either Finland or Sweden.
- 48:39So in retaliation, after Sweden and Finland joined NATO, Russia cut
- 48:48electricity and gas supplies to Finland in 2022.
- 48:54And the Finns reactivated borders along military bases along their
- 49:04borders.
- 49:05But so did the Russians.
- 49:08They reactivated the Leningrad military district and started stationing things.
- 49:14They declared the Baltic Sea is no longer a nuclear free zone for them as it
- 49:19was before.
- 49:20And you've heard plenty of stories about the Baltic Sea being the scene of
- 49:26conflict these days.
- 49:29Rattling of sabres all the time by the Pribaltiki, which is Latvia, Lithuania,
- 49:36Estonia, also EU, NATO BS.
- 49:39And they don't want to see Russian tankers.
- 49:42They don't want to see Kaliningrad.
- 49:44They don't want to see nuclear base, nuclear submarines, no Russian fighters,
- 49:50freighters, nothing.
- 49:52But that's the Baltic Sea.
- 49:55And so Russia is reactivating that portion of its fleet.
- 49:59Not that it was ever not there, but they didn't go there very much.
- 50:03Now there's also been cyber attacks, alleged disinformation of the Russian
- 50:09kind, sabotage in Sweden and migration pressure in Finland.
- 50:15They've also on both sides expelled each other's diplomats and closed some
- 50:22consulates.
- 50:23So when you say countermeasures or when Medev says that, think less about
- 50:29lawyers in Vienna and more about hackers in St. Petersburg and gas valve and
- 50:36economic pressure from Russia because Finland and Sweden no longer get cheap
- 50:42Russian gas.
- 50:45So the Austria dilemma I've already outlined for you.
- 50:50They're constitutionally neutral, but practically entangled on all kinds of
- 50:56other levels.
- 50:57The EU common security and defense policy, NATO's partnership for peace, and
- 51:05these thousands of NATO movements across their airspace and territory each
- 51:11year.
- 51:13And neutrality is a legal fiction that Austria I don't say they're really
- 51:19neutral.
- 51:20Obviously they're doing things for NATO right now, which is probably why Medev
- 51:25is bitching about it in the first place.
- 51:28So it's a legal fiction.
- 51:31But they have to if they repeal it, Russia will treat it like Finland and
- 51:37Sweden.
- 51:38They'll be more hostile rhetorically, diplomatically, and they may engage in
- 51:45energy and diplomatic and border sorts pressure, but they're not on the border.
- 51:51So neutrality for reality though has given Vienna its role as the world's
- 51:58diplomatic capital, and if you get rid of that all Austria is just another
- 52:05front line NATO seat.
- 52:07And remember Austria was part of Austria-Hungary.
- 52:10Austria was a large part of the German war machine also, whether voluntarily or
- 52:17not, but they were very closely related.
- 52:22To sum it up, the article in this sort of analysis from the beginning, and then
- 52:28I want to get into some other parts, is that Medvedev is wrapping together
- 52:34politics and law, but in reality the legal analysis isn't really
- 52:44on his side.
- 52:47Because it wasn't planned at the time that way, or the Soviets missed it
- 52:57when they signed the treaty or negotiated the treaty.
- 53:01They had handshake deals that they thought they understood, but it was hidden
- 53:08in the fine print of the treaties, and the western lawyers hid, you know,
- 53:15played hide the salami with the terms of the treaty.
- 53:20So Austria's neutrality does rest on its own constitutional law, not on any
- 53:28veto power by Russia or anyone else that was a party to that.
- 53:34You know, France, England, America.
- 53:37But, you know, law wouldn't necessarily stop war, or energy cutoff, or any sort
- 53:44of political power to do something against them.
- 53:48So the question isn't whether Austria can repeal its neutrality, it's whether
- 53:53it wants to pay the price of Russia's promised countermeasures, not Russia's
- 53:59medivatives.
- 54:02A medivative can still speak for Russia, right?
- 54:09So, but here's my problem with it all.
- 54:13If you look at the fact that this is all, and that we, or that somebody coerced
- 54:23Russia into signing a treaty that didn't give them what they thought they were
- 54:30getting, and Russians are very history and remember things and
- 54:40study things, the sore point for Russia is always the same.
- 54:47You guys, you say one thing and you do another.
- 54:51You make these handshake deals, but we can't shake your hands.
- 54:56You know, we've got to immediately run to the bathroom and wash our hands after
- 55:00shaking hands with you, because you never do what you say you're going to do.
- 55:05And then we go, what?
- 55:07What?
- 55:08We did what we said we were going to do.
- 55:09You should have put it in the treaty and you never did.
- 55:11We didn't want that to be part of it.
- 55:13Standard lawyer BS.
- 55:17But your best business partner is the guy you can have a handshake deal with.
- 55:22The best wife is the one that doesn't need a lawyer.
- 55:28So remember that.
- 55:29These are important safety tips.
- 55:31These are things that should mean a lot to you.
- 55:38If your spouse needs a lawyer and is hiding shit from you, well, maybe that's
- 55:43not a spouse you need.
- 55:46And I understand the sore nerve from the Russian side.
- 55:50So let's talk about the handshake problem for a little bit.
- 55:54In Austrian history, neutrality was codified by domestic law.
- 55:59But the Soviet Union views it as part of a package that restored Austria's
- 56:05sovereignty.
- 56:06Like you wouldn't be sovereign if you didn't claim neutrality.
- 56:12That's why you changed it, because you had to, to get your country back.
- 56:18And it's part of the treaty that we signed.
- 56:21I get that point of view.
- 56:24In the strict revision or looking at the contract of the treaty, a little bit
- 56:31different.
- 56:31But from a political angle, I definitely get it.
- 56:36So from the Russian perspective, once again, it's a political declaration.
- 56:42If they say it's a political declaration, that sounds like the West downgrading
- 56:46its own commitments, just like always, when they become inconvenient.
- 56:54And that's why they frame neutrality as an international guarantee and not a
- 57:02domestic choice.
- 57:04And the reason I say this is because this is what Russia wants from Ukraine.
- 57:12This is what Russia has said they've wanted.
- 57:16This is why Austria is a big deal.
- 57:20Because part of the topics that they're allegedly discussing with Ukraine are
- 57:27neutrality.
- 57:28And then you have Zelensky, no, we've got to be part of NATO.
- 57:31Well, NATO don't want you.
- 57:34Well, they do, but they don't want to say they want you.
- 57:37But think about this.
- 57:39These are some easy remembrances from the Russian point of view.
- 57:46Let's go back to 1990-91.
- 57:50U.S. Secretary of State James Baker famously floated to Gorbachev that NATO
- 57:58would move, this is under Bush 1, not one inch eastward if Germany unified
- 58:08inside the NATO umbrella.
- 58:10So Germany was part of NATO, West Germany.
- 58:14East Germany was part of the Warsaw Pact.
- 58:16After the wall came down, those two wanted to get back together.
- 58:20And Russia said, hell no, that's not going to happen.
- 58:25And then they said, oh no, no, no, NATO expansion, you get rid of the Warsaw
- 58:30Pact.
- 58:31So they did.
- 58:34Russia feels tricked all the time because they did, and this is what they did.
- 58:40So the problem was, from the Russian point of view, right, let's do some
- 58:45American justification here because that's what we knew.
- 58:49It was said in, the problem is that this was only said in talks to Gorbachev.
- 58:57It was never written into the treaty on the final settlement with respect to
- 59:02Germany.
- 59:03This is called the 2 plus 4 agreement.
- 59:06The treaty contains no legal prohibition on NATO expansion.
- 59:12Just like the treaty in the Austrian thing says nothing about neutrality, but
- 59:19they signed a memorandum saying that's the way they would do.
- 59:22And in the negotiations they said, James Baker said that not one inch to the
- 59:28eastward, and also so did Bush 1.
- 59:32Right?
- 59:33So the Western view says it was one negotiating line, not a binding promise.
- 59:40And the Russian view, it was a handshake, and then it was broken when Poland,
- 59:45the Baltics, and many others joined NATO.
- 59:49Okay?
- 59:50So that's number one, not an inch to the east.
- 59:54This is just in Soviet times, right?
- 59:57This has nothing to do with Austria and the point that I just said, but this is
- 1:00:01why Russia has the point of view that it does.
- 1:00:04Fast forward to the Minsk agreements.
- 1:00:08The Minsk agreements were meant to end the Donbass war.
- 1:00:13Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France all signed up.
- 1:00:19They signed up.
- 1:00:20They're trying to end the war in the Donbass.
- 1:00:23Russia is saying, look you're killing all their ethnic Russians over there and
- 1:00:27you're putting in laws that tear them apart, tear their families apart, kill
- 1:00:32them take their property, force them to speak Ukrainian and they don't speak
- 1:00:37Ukrainian.
- 1:00:38Why in the world are you doing this?
- 1:00:41So they signed an agreement.
- 1:00:44Minsk 1 and Minsk 2, right?
- 1:00:47In Minsk Belarus.
- 1:00:50Ukraine dragged its feet on implementing autonomy because that was part of
- 1:00:56Minsk 1 and 2.
- 1:00:57They were supposed to be autonomous regions that didn't have governors
- 1:01:03appointed by Kiev.
- 1:01:06But no, that's the feet was dragging and they didn't have any intention of
- 1:01:12honoring this Minsk agreements 1 and 2.
- 1:01:18So Ukraine dragged its feet on implementing autonomy and Russia was allegedly
- 1:01:23weaponizing separatist parties and claimed Ukraine wasn't compliant.
- 1:01:30But it's neither one of them.
- 1:01:32Ukraine was worse about it because they were killing people but the Russians
- 1:01:38did give weapons to people that were wanting to stay on the Russian side.
- 1:01:45But later, Merkel and who was the other guy?
- 1:01:51Holland later admitted that Minsk was a stalling tactic used to buy Ukraine
- 1:01:58time to rearm.
- 1:02:02So from Russia's angle, once again, the West signed something and then treated
- 1:02:09it as disposable when strategic realities changed.
- 1:02:14When it was no longer convenient, that's what they did.
- 1:02:18So here's Russia's pattern that they get to see all the time.
- 1:02:22Austrian neutrality is a handshake turned into just politics.
- 1:02:27NATO expansion are verbal assurances turned into, well that's not legally
- 1:02:31binding.
- 1:02:32And Minsk was a lie where you sign a deal to provide yourself with some
- 1:02:38temporary cover.
- 1:02:40So when Medvedev talks about Austria's neutrality, he's not just arguing about
- 1:02:47legal things, he's pointing to this pattern that the West never keeps a
- 1:02:52commitment unless it nails down in a treaty in iron terms.
- 1:02:59And even then, the fine print of the treaties get gamed, get played from the
- 1:03:08Western side.
- 1:03:09Let's take about the counter argument.
- 1:03:13Western lawyers they say, law isn't about feelings.
- 1:03:19I get that point of view from my own legal analysis of this myself tonight.
- 1:03:26If it's not in the treaty, it's not binding.
- 1:03:29Memorandum of understanding isn't binding.
- 1:03:33That's it.
- 1:03:35International politics is a world of written obligations not nostalgia for what
- 1:03:41somebody said in a smoke filled room.
- 1:03:45Meaning, the West, you can't accept a handshake.
- 1:03:50You can't do it.
- 1:03:51The deeper truth is, Russia wants the spirit of bargains respected, while the
- 1:03:57West insists on the letter of the law.
- 1:04:01There's a joke for you.
- 1:04:03But the difference has become a geopolitical huge wound.
- 1:04:08So when I talk about big boy pants, or is this a real argument, does Russia
- 1:04:14have to put on its big boy pants?
- 1:04:18Or do they have a legitimate beef?
- 1:04:21That's basically the question.
- 1:04:24Russia can credibly say, and they do so frequently, every time we trust you
- 1:04:30guys with handshakes, soft agreements, you keep pushing.
- 1:04:35That is not an invented grievance.
- 1:04:40It has all kinds of history to it.
- 1:04:42And I've given you only a few.
- 1:04:45The Western rebuttal of this says, if you wanted permanent veto power over its
- 1:04:50neighbor joined in NATO, you should have negotiated that in a treaty.
- 1:04:55Other than that, shut up.
- 1:04:58And there's certainly some truth to that too.
- 1:05:03And it's just as valid.
- 1:05:08So the handshake metaphor reinforces Moscow's line, never trust the West unless
- 1:05:16the ink is dry and the clauses are airtight.
- 1:05:19That's why Medvedev is dragging Austria into the spotlight anyway, because he's
- 1:05:24really pointing at Ukraine.
- 1:05:26Neutrality to Russia is one of the last bargains that still stand with USSR
- 1:05:31times from 1995.
- 1:05:34Right?
- 1:05:35So why would Russia ever, ever agree to anything ever in the world with the
- 1:05:42West about Ukraine?
- 1:05:44Why wouldn't they just keep on trucking and blowing crap up like they did with
- 1:05:49that ship this morning?
- 1:05:52So the Ukrainian ship is sunk, is gone.
- 1:05:56Well, and from their point of view, the West will always posture and give non
- 1:06:01-binding assurances which are all part of diplomacy.
- 1:06:05And when it's inconvenient, they call in the lawyers and they point to the fine
- 1:06:10print.
- 1:06:11They just go, well, sorry.
- 1:06:13That's how it goes.
- 1:06:15If you strip away the spin of it all, the question is what makes Austria's
- 1:06:20neutrality legally flexible, I suppose, while Russia's insistence that Ukraine
- 1:06:29stay neutrality or NATO freeze has to be terminal.
- 1:06:34Right?
- 1:06:35So now we have to get to what's the difference between Austria versus Ukraine.
- 1:06:39Excuse me.
- 1:06:40Why the situations are different.
- 1:06:42Right?
- 1:06:44Austrian neutrality was Austria's own domestic constitutional act passed after
- 1:06:50the state treaty, that they had to have a state treaty that said they were
- 1:06:55neutral.
- 1:06:55So then they did it, but it wasn't written into the state treaty, so it's not
- 1:06:59binding, that they keep it forever.
- 1:07:02The allies, including the USSR at the time, recognized it, but didn't gain a
- 1:07:08written veto power, so they could never veto Austria being non-neutral.
- 1:07:16Right?
- 1:07:17Russia couldn't do that.
- 1:07:19So legally, Austria can walk away from neutrality by changing its constitution,
- 1:07:25but politically and probably economically, it didn't pay a price.
- 1:07:30Okay?
- 1:07:31So the Budapest Memorandum for Ukraine.
- 1:07:34Let's talk about Ukraine and why this is important.
- 1:07:37So in 1994, Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances
- 1:07:46from Russia, the US, and the UK.
- 1:07:49That was assurances, not a defense treaty.
- 1:07:54Russia, according to Ukraine, tore it up.
- 1:08:00The West argued it wasn't a binding security agreement anyway, which is why
- 1:08:05Russia said they tore it up, because the West said, well, that doesn't make any
- 1:08:09sense at all and started moving all kinds of Western US military into Ukraine,
- 1:08:16and they said they couldn't do that.
- 1:08:18Right?
- 1:08:19So NATO also made an open door policy for Ukraine.
- 1:08:23They were told that they could one day join but not guarantee membership or any
- 1:08:29neutrality.
- 1:08:31Then Minsk, which I already went through and told you about, but those are
- 1:08:35tactical, not strategic commitments, according to the Ukraine side.
- 1:08:39They never intended to honor them anyway, nor did the Germans or the French.
- 1:08:43So it was only the Russians that got tricked into signing those, according to
- 1:08:47the Russians.
- 1:08:49So the result is there are no hard, enforceable guarantees of neutrality in
- 1:08:56Ukraine, only political promises.
- 1:08:59So from Russia, when it comes to Ukraine, Moscow doesn't want another Austria
- 1:09:04problem, where neutrality is just a domestic law that Kiev repeals with a
- 1:09:10parliament vote in five years.
- 1:09:12Russia wants neutrality locked in by treaty text.
- 1:09:16That's why Medvedev is bringing it up.
- 1:09:19This is why we're talking about it.
- 1:09:21He wants it ratified, text enforceable with Moscow as a party, something it
- 1:09:29could invoke in international law.
- 1:09:32That's why they keep talking about legally binding guarantees and not
- 1:09:37assurances, because they don't trust us, nor should they, because we play games
- 1:09:42all the time.
- 1:09:44And Ukraine has no intention of doing this.
- 1:09:48That's why Russia's just going to keep on bombing the crap out of them.
- 1:09:53And the West isn't going to do anything.
- 1:09:55Why the West plays the lawyer card?
- 1:09:58The West's default is only when written down in treaty does text count.
- 1:10:05Even then, that's bullshit, by the way.
- 1:10:06Even then, they point to the fine print and weasel out of it.
- 1:10:12Political promises, communiques, even memoranda, useful at the time, disposable
- 1:10:18later.
- 1:10:19Russia points out that even treaties are interpreted very, very flexibly,
- 1:10:23especially by NATO.
- 1:10:25NATO bombed Yugoslavia without UN mandate, Libya in 2011, UN resolution 1973 to
- 1:10:33protect civilians turned into a regime change, and then Minsk left completely
- 1:10:39in limbo.
- 1:10:41From Moscow's point of view, ink on paper is not safe with the West either.
- 1:10:48Right?
- 1:10:50So, why would Russia ever agree to anything on Ukraine?
- 1:10:56Why?
- 1:10:58Well, they would if neutrality is written into a treaty signed by Russia,
- 1:11:03Ukraine, and probably the US.
- 1:11:07There are enforcement mechanisms, sanctions, snapback, military limits, maybe
- 1:11:13some sort of monitoring.
- 1:11:15I think if Trump put sanctions against Ukraine because there was some talk
- 1:11:21about that last week, said he was thinking of that too, and saying something
- 1:11:26like that.
- 1:11:28Maybe Trump can pull it off with sanctions against both.
- 1:11:34But, it also has to survive domestic law changes, you know, because according
- 1:11:41to Russia, the old Z-Monster is not even a legitimate president anymore, and
- 1:11:47there's a decent amount of legal weight to that.
- 1:11:51If he signs it, what does that mean?
- 1:11:54If he's illegitimate, what does that mean?
- 1:11:57Who signs it?
- 1:11:57Who has to ratify it?
- 1:11:59That's why they want a treaty enforceable by the people.
- 1:12:02The West's problem, including the US, friends and neighbors, locking Ukraine's
- 1:12:09neutrality into a treaty text looks like, from our point of view, we forced
- 1:12:16Russia to be aggressive because we were being aggressive with Ukraine.
- 1:12:24We created a proxy war state.
- 1:12:28That's what we did.
- 1:12:30NATO did.
- 1:12:31Everybody is complicit in this.
- 1:12:35And then, we turn around and blame Russia for standing up for themselves,
- 1:12:39right?
- 1:12:40But we're the bad guys here.
- 1:12:42We are definitely the bad guys.
- 1:12:44But the problem is, locking Ukraine into a treaty of neutrality looks like
- 1:12:50they're rewarding aggression by Russia, if you want to call it aggression.
- 1:12:56And now, they're denying Ukraine its own sovereign choice.
- 1:13:02That is very politically toxic on the streets of Warsaw, Washington, Brussels,
- 1:13:11and Kiev.
- 1:13:13Right?
- 1:13:14So, the reason that Austria chose to do what it did and be neutral is because
- 1:13:21in 1955, it was a defeated, occupied country with no leverage.
- 1:13:29It accepted neutrality as the price of its freedom.
- 1:13:35Okay?
- 1:13:35Now, you see the point.
- 1:13:37Ukraine is still fighting and losing, but they're not surrendering.
- 1:13:44Right?
- 1:13:47There's arguments that they still overwhelmingly reject neutrality.
- 1:13:55I disagree with them.
- 1:13:57I have seen a number of different polls on this topic.
- 1:14:03And, you know, the hardliners that are holding Zelensky in the presidency by
- 1:14:10threatening to whatever they're threatening to do.
- 1:14:14They might even be threatening to kill him.
- 1:14:16Who knows?
- 1:14:18For Russia, neutrality is the minimum.
- 1:14:21For Ukraine, that's unacceptable.
- 1:14:25And maybe that means that Russia has to defeat Ukraine.
- 1:14:31And that means, bottom line, Russia can sign a deal on Ukraine only if it is
- 1:14:37treaty-bound, explicit, enforceable, recognized by Moscow as permanent.
- 1:14:44Western diplomacy is built on lies, flexibility, nothing is permanent.
- 1:14:49That's why Austria can walk away from neutrality while Ukraine and Russia is
- 1:14:54going to be allowed to.
- 1:14:57Right?
- 1:14:59It's, I mean, here, so my thought process is that hypothetical Ukrainian
- 1:15:08treaties.
- 1:15:09What if somebody modeled a treaty to have a domestic neutrality law?
- 1:15:18Similar to Austria in 1955.
- 1:15:22Russia defeats Kiev, takes over Odessa, and says you can have most of your
- 1:15:26country back if you can do this.
- 1:15:32You know, these things that we listed, you know, we want enforceable treaty,
- 1:15:41explicit permanency, no flexibility, you're there.
- 1:15:48Right?
- 1:15:49If you beat them, sure.
- 1:15:53So what would that result in?
- 1:15:56Would model one, this Austria thing, if Russia learned from its lesson and
- 1:16:02said, Jesus, here we are, granted it's 70 years later, but we can't have a
- 1:16:07neutrality like Austria, we need a neutrality something else, in treaty
- 1:16:13language, we'll learn from that.
- 1:16:15And say, well, sorry, treaty says you're neutral.
- 1:16:18Period.
- 1:16:19No military, no this, no that.
- 1:16:22Well, you think that'll work?
- 1:16:24You think Ukraine will ever sign up for that?
- 1:16:27So far they don't want to.
- 1:16:28They think that Russia's going to keep on coming.
- 1:16:32And Russia is going to keep on coming if it isn't in Russia's interest to allow
- 1:16:38them not to.
- 1:16:40Now, they could have fixed this, you know, Boris Johnson really cocked this up,
- 1:16:46and he should be, have his feet put right in the fire.
- 1:16:51Let's look at the number two.
- 1:16:53Like a modified 1994 Budapest Memorandum that they spice up a little bit,
- 1:17:01right?
- 1:17:03Where Ukraine gave up the world's third largest nuclear arsenal.
- 1:17:08Because remember, they were the third largest.
- 1:17:12And Russia took them back.
- 1:17:14And you know what?
- 1:17:15Frankly, in my opinion, it's a good thing that they did.
- 1:17:18Because, hell, what's America trying to do right now?
- 1:17:22They're trying to figure out how to put nuclear weapons back in Ukraine with
- 1:17:26American warheads on and pulling into Russia.
- 1:17:31So the mechanics of that was, Russia and the UK sign a memorandum promising to
- 1:17:37respect Ukraine's borders, refrain from threats, and seek UN action if any
- 1:17:45aggression occurred.
- 1:17:46But it was not a defense treaty.
- 1:17:49There's no enforcement, no binding collective defense, no sanctions.
- 1:17:55It was a political assurance.
- 1:17:59Cheap to give, easy to ignore, just like all the other ones that we are talking
- 1:18:08about.
- 1:18:09It was an assurance given to the other side that nobody put it in the treaty.
- 1:18:15Well, if you wanted to put it in the treaty, Ukraine, maybe you should have put
- 1:18:21it in the treaty.
- 1:18:22You didn't, so screw you.
- 1:18:25The US says it's not enforceable and Russia happens to agree.
- 1:18:30So that sort of agreement is not going to work.
- 1:18:36They claim, the West, as everybody's up in arms and say that Russia violated
- 1:18:41the Budapest Accords in 2014 and in 2022 by not honoring the territorial
- 1:18:50integrity.
- 1:18:51But you don't have to honor territorial integrity if somebody has a referendum
- 1:18:57and leaves.
- 1:18:58The US has proved that repeatedly, over and over and over and over.
- 1:19:02Kosovo, all those other places.
- 1:19:05Assurances are disposable once the wind of change comes along.
- 1:19:10Assurances don't mean crap.
- 1:19:12Russia now uses Budapest as exhibit A in its Never Trust the West file.
- 1:19:18Model 3.
- 1:19:20Sam's hypothetical Ukraine neutrality treaty.
- 1:19:24The mechanics of this.
- 1:19:26Ukraine agrees to neutrality in exchange for peace.
- 1:19:30Neutrality is written into an international treaty signed by Russia, Ukraine
- 1:19:34and Western powers.
- 1:19:36You only really need the US.
- 1:19:39But throw in some other guarantors if you want to.
- 1:19:41China, Turkey, UK US, France, any of these idiots that want to get involved.
- 1:19:47You can do that.
- 1:19:48It could include limits on foreign bases on the US coming in, putting
- 1:19:52biological weapons all over the place.
- 1:19:54You could limit all that stuff.
- 1:19:56You could limit flyovers.
- 1:19:57You couldn't have any air bases.
- 1:19:58No stopping on no US warships in the Black Sea at the Odessa.
- 1:20:05You could eliminate all these things.
- 1:20:07You can make it flexible, much less than Austria's law or Budapest's
- 1:20:12assurances.
- 1:20:13It could be a treaty, like a Vienna Convention, meaning unilateral appeal
- 1:20:18wouldn't be allowed.
- 1:20:20Violating parties would face sanctions, countermeasures or military guarantee.
- 1:20:26The results if it is agreed upon.
- 1:20:28It would only work if the US and Russia both commit to enforcing it.
- 1:20:34I don't think this part matters, but arguably you could say that Ukraine's
- 1:20:40people have to accept their own sovereign limits, right?
- 1:20:44But they're losing anyway.
- 1:20:48At some point, I believe this is what's going to happen, unless the US and NATO
- 1:20:54and everybody else ups the ante and makes full-scale war.
- 1:20:57It might be happening anyway, blowing up ships.
- 1:21:00But remember, Ukraine blew up a Russian ship early in the conflict.
- 1:21:10This is the only type of guarantee that Moscow's going to trust, but it's also
- 1:21:14the hardest one for Ukraine and the West to swallow, because it's like
- 1:21:18codifying Russia's veto over Ukraine's future and acknowledging that Russia won
- 1:21:26and is winning this war.
- 1:21:29And that, people cannot accept.
- 1:21:32But unfortunately, that's mainly the reality of it all.
- 1:21:39So, you have three models.
- 1:21:43You have Sam's model to get rid of it.
- 1:21:46Moscow, Ukraine neutrality, treaty iron, not parliamentary paper, handshake
- 1:21:52deals, polite promises, or Minsk-type agreements that Ukraine has no intention
- 1:22:01of following.
- 1:22:02So, long and the short of it is, is that Austria has shown how neutrality can
- 1:22:11last if both sides respect it.
- 1:22:14Budapest shows how assurances collapse when the balance of power shifts, and a
- 1:22:19Ukrainian treaty would be the hardest of all, that to be legally binding and
- 1:22:24enforceable.
- 1:22:25The uncomfortable truth is that Austria can ignore Moscow's interpretation
- 1:22:30because the law is on its side.
- 1:22:34Russia cannot afford and will not allow such ambiguity with Ukraine.
- 1:22:39And if Ukraine ignores it, the war will continue.
- 1:22:44And that's probably where this is going to be, right?
- 1:22:51I, for one, believe that diplomacy matters.
- 1:22:55And I, for one, believe that these handshakes and assurances should have been
- 1:23:02recognized all along.
- 1:23:04I side pretty heavily with people who are induced into making deals.
- 1:23:11Remember, you should be protected if you're fraudulently induced to make a
- 1:23:15deal.
- 1:23:15Let's say you're getting married to a man because he's rich, and you've made a
- 1:23:22deal that he, you get half of his money in the event that you get divorced, he
- 1:23:27makes you sign a prenup, makes it all good, won't disclose anything to you, you
- 1:23:32get married, and then you discover he's a pauper, he didn't have any money
- 1:23:35anyway.
- 1:23:37Have you been fraudulently induced?
- 1:23:40How about you're a man, and you just want to have children, you want to have a
- 1:23:44lot of children, and you meet a girl that just wants to get married and likes
- 1:23:48you because of your money, and you want to be together, and then you get
- 1:23:52married and you find out that she knew all along she couldn't have children,
- 1:23:57she had had her tubes tied years ago.
- 1:24:01Have you been fraudulently induced?
- 1:24:04You got a partner who says he's got a new piece of equipment that's going to
- 1:24:08make you millions, and you get it all together and you turn out it's made of
- 1:24:11pipe cleaners and nothing else, it's not going to work.
- 1:24:16So it's have you been fraudulently induced?
- 1:24:22Should you have a cause of action?
- 1:24:24Should you honor these sorts of things?
- 1:24:27So it's a dangerous and real effect in global politics when trust is defeated
- 1:24:37and it collapses.
- 1:24:39Force is all that's left.
- 1:24:42Russia has already taken that step.
- 1:24:47Where's the currency?
- 1:24:48The currency is in the force.
- 1:24:51And if Ukraine doesn't do something quickly, I believe, and the US, which
- 1:24:57doesn't have any desire to get involved in this, Trumpster doesn't want that
- 1:25:00there, nobody wants it there.
- 1:25:02They want the war over.
- 1:25:06Russia wants the war over too, but they're not just going to, how many times
- 1:25:11have I lectured on this topic, that force is the only way that they can let it
- 1:25:17go and we're not going to have a ceasefire so that you can just rebuild and
- 1:25:20we're going to start all over.
- 1:25:22It's not happening.
- 1:25:24And so these legal analyses are everything.
- 1:25:30And if Russia takes to heart this sort of thing and keeps on going, which I
- 1:25:38believe they're, they've been pretty clear, they're going to keep on going.
- 1:25:44Russia, from the hard line perspective, only partial control is weakness.
- 1:25:52If they don't get what they want, losing the Donbass or Crimea for them would
- 1:25:58be catastrophic.
- 1:26:01Pushing all the way to Odessa or Kiev, cutting Ukraine from the Black Sea or
- 1:26:07crippling their own statehood would secure leverage permanently, but that's not
- 1:26:14something I believe that they really wanted to happen and I believe diplomacy
- 1:26:18still matters.
- 1:26:20Even in total war, states end up at the table.
- 1:26:23Every major conflict since 1945 has ended with signatures on paper and not just
- 1:26:28rubble.
- 1:26:29If Odessa, Russia took Odessa and Kiev, it would have possibly some of the same
- 1:26:36problems that Ukraine has in Donbass and Donetsk, in the Donbass region,
- 1:26:42Lugansk and Donetsk.
- 1:26:45Russia, you know, the sanctions, let's talk about that.
- 1:26:50Who really cares?
- 1:26:52Russia has shown resilience.
- 1:26:53The longer they grind on, that doesn't matter.
- 1:26:58What about the trap of absolute victory?
- 1:27:00If Russia defines victory as nothing less than Kiev capitulation, does it help?
- 1:27:09I don't know.
- 1:27:11I hope that you've enjoyed talking about and listening to how Austria can walk
- 1:27:17away from neutrality and how the West can finesse its own promises only force
- 1:27:25can guarantee security according to Russia or paper that Western lawyers aren't
- 1:27:32going to twist and spit upon or aren't going to go, wait a minute, that's just
- 1:27:37a rhetoric that we've given to you.
- 1:27:48Interesting stuff, people.
- 1:27:50Interesting and good news, friends and neighbors.
- 1:27:54I hope you enjoyed the article from Mr. Medvedev.
- 1:27:59It was really got me thinking today and I'm very glad I did some research into
- 1:28:05it from my Austrian heritage.
- 1:28:10I, of course, am on damn radio every night from 9pm until 10.30pm Sunday
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- 1:28:19You can join me there at damn radio.com forward slash live.
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- 1:28:31listen and find the schedule for those at damn radio.com forward slash
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- 1:28:37You can even go back and listen to all of the old programs at damn radio.com
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- 1:28:46I also have my own podcast website which is internationalflavor.com and
- 1:28:56another one in Russian that I don't do as often.
- 1:29:00I only do about once a week and it's internationalflavorrussian.podbean.com and
- 1:29:06those links are out on my Facebook page which is Facebook International Flavor
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- 1:29:41I very much appreciate each and every one of you for joining the program and
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- 1:29:54a very good night, my last night in Moscow.
- 1:29:57Have a good night.