Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / OpenAI Breaks From Exclusive AI Pact With Microsoft
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
- 0:10Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
- 0:14Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
- 0:18Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
- 0:21Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
- 0:23Speaker 2: Here's some news out today. I think it's important, but
- 0:26Speaker 2: I'm not sure. Microsoft will no longer pay revenue to
- 0:29Speaker 2: open Ai. Instead, it's partnership with the leading artificial intelligence
- 0:32Speaker 2: firm will not be exclusive going forward. Microsoft stocks down
- 0:36Speaker 2: just fractionally on the news here. I'm not sure what
- 0:39Speaker 2: they're reading to it. But our next guest does know
- 0:41Speaker 2: Ed Ludlow be Tech co hosts. He is in our
- 0:44Speaker 2: San Francisco studio. Can you explain this news to us
- 0:48Speaker 2: and what it means?
- 0:51Speaker 3: This is important and it's the latest development in a
- 0:55Speaker 3: series of a changing relationship, and so Microsoft critically important
- 0:59Speaker 3: mega cap tech name and open Ai. Let's call it
- 1:02Speaker 3: the most profound AI company in this generation of AI companies.
- 1:08Speaker 3: And basically what Microsoft is allowing open Ai to do
- 1:12Speaker 3: is sell its products elsewhere. For a long time, they've
- 1:17Speaker 3: been tweaking the exclusivity by which Microsoft gets first DIBs
- 1:22Speaker 3: or first access to open ais tech and also is
- 1:25Speaker 3: a major distribution platform for open ais tech to third parties.
- 1:29Speaker 3: So the net result is like open ai can now
- 1:31Speaker 3: run but also sell its models on any cloud. And
- 1:34Speaker 3: you'll note that our colleagues in BI their main takeaways
- 1:38Speaker 3: from this is the Amazon will be a big beneficiary
- 1:41Speaker 3: of that decision, but there's also some mechanical stuff, so
- 1:44Speaker 3: believe it or not, Microsoft is the biggest shareholder of
- 1:47Speaker 3: open Ai. It has like twenty seven percent stake, but
- 1:49Speaker 3: for a really long time it's been paying money to
- 1:52Speaker 3: open Ai as a share of revenue from revenues it
- 1:56Speaker 3: generates using open ais tech. That's quite complicated. So that's
- 1:59Speaker 3: now ending. And open ai is a major customer of Microsoft,
- 2:04Speaker 3: even though Microsoft one of its main investors, and it
- 2:06Speaker 3: will keep paying Microsoft to use its cloud services. And
- 2:09Speaker 3: that's the net takeaway, all right.
- 2:12Speaker 4: So perhaps this is all kind of in the lead
- 2:14Speaker 4: up to open ai eventually going public, which is expected
- 2:17Speaker 4: to happen sometime this year. I also wanted to get
- 2:20Speaker 4: from you this story that we have here about China
- 2:22Speaker 4: blocking metas two billion dollar acquisition of this AI firm
- 2:26Speaker 4: called Manus.
- 2:27Speaker 5: It's an AI startup. Tell us a little bit more about.
- 2:30Speaker 4: This and whether this would really get in the way
- 2:31Speaker 4: of Meta wanting to acquire this company.
- 2:34Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 2:34Speaker 3: I mean, the way to look at it is that
- 2:35Speaker 3: it shows China still having power and an ability to
- 2:40Speaker 3: assert control over technology that originates from that country. You know,
- 2:46Speaker 3: that is the main part of it. Meta wanted Manus
- 2:49Speaker 3: to kind of build out their agentic offering because that
- 2:52Speaker 3: is what Manus does, It makes AI agents. But you know,
- 2:56Speaker 3: the one reason I suppose this story is so well
- 2:58Speaker 3: read on the terminal is that we are just a
- 3:01Speaker 3: few weeks away from President Trump meeting with Jijiping and
- 3:05Speaker 3: the access to technology in either direction across borders. You know,
- 3:09Speaker 3: that has been a point of negotiation right in the
- 3:13Speaker 3: relationship between these two countries.
- 3:15Speaker 2: Is there any expectation just along that front ed that
- 3:18Speaker 2: things will ever get better? I can't see a world
- 3:21Speaker 2: where I'd want China to have our best tech. I
- 3:24Speaker 2: can't imagine they'd want us to have their best tech.
- 3:27Speaker 7: Where are we on that?
- 3:27Speaker 6: Yeah?
- 3:28Speaker 3: Yeah, the net position of the administration is that they
- 3:35Speaker 3: do not want Chinese entities, companies, and other government entities
- 3:42Speaker 3: from having access to America's best technology. But that has
- 3:45Speaker 3: largely focused on the picks and shovels the chips that
- 3:48Speaker 3: are being used to develop that. The other way round,
- 3:52Speaker 3: the export of software from China to US has been
- 3:55Speaker 3: a much grayer area.
- 3:56Speaker 6: You'll see.
- 3:57Speaker 3: The other big headline on the terminal is deep seek Right,
- 3:59Speaker 3: which is a very competent maker of open source models
- 4:03Speaker 3: and so like. The main takeaway in this sense is
- 4:07Speaker 3: that the direction of travel is China trying to cut
- 4:09Speaker 3: off access to its own companies from American capital, both
- 4:15Speaker 3: intellectual and financial capital, which is you know, how the
- 4:19Speaker 3: president passes. That is going to be very interesting to see.
- 4:22Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 4:29Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 4:33Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Coarclay, and Android
- 4:36Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
- 4:39Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 4:43Speaker 2: Back to these markets here we're can get an IPO.
- 4:46Speaker 2: I think a lot of big IPOs are in the
- 4:48Speaker 2: offing here.
- 4:48Speaker 4: Stir and you're thinking open AI, You're thinking a topic.
- 4:50Speaker 4: You're thinking SpaceX.
- 4:52Speaker 2: Exactly right, and it looks like Bill Ackman's Purging Square
- 4:55Speaker 2: IPO that's going to be starting us off here at
- 4:58Speaker 2: least in this period of time. Let's just check them
- 5:00Speaker 2: with Billy Lipschalt. He does all the equity markets, including
- 5:03Speaker 2: the new issue markets. Bailly talked to us about Bill Ackman.
- 5:05Speaker 2: What's he bringing to the marketplace with this IPO.
- 5:08Speaker 8: Yeah, so he's bringing a closed end fund, so raising
- 5:10Speaker 8: some permanent capital, as Wall Street loves to do these days.
- 5:14Speaker 8: And as part of that deal, they're distributing shares of
- 5:18Speaker 8: Pershing Square Proper, which is the hedge fund which manages
- 5:20Speaker 8: the strategies. So that deal is expected to price tomorrow.
- 5:24Speaker 8: My colleague Anthony he has broke that they're expecting to
- 5:26Speaker 8: price it at five billion dollars.
- 5:28Speaker 6: Keep in mind, a few weeks ago when they.
- 5:29Speaker 8: Launched this process, excuse me last week, when they launched
- 5:31Speaker 8: this process, they said they would raise five to ten
- 5:33Speaker 8: billion dollars, so at the bottom of that range. And
- 5:36Speaker 8: if you think back two years ago, without the sweetener
- 5:39Speaker 8: of the hedge fund, they wanted to raise twenty five
- 5:41Speaker 8: billion dollars.
- 5:42Speaker 6: That ultimately was pulled.
- 5:43Speaker 8: So this has been a few years in the making,
- 5:45Speaker 8: but it does seem like we'll cross that finish line tomorrow.
- 5:48Speaker 4: Which part of this offering do investors want more the
- 5:51Speaker 4: closed end fund or the exposure to the hedge fund.
- 5:53Speaker 8: Hedge fund, I mean closed end funds historically or at
- 5:57Speaker 8: least recently, have traded at discounts. The London market, where
- 6:01Speaker 8: he currently has a closed edge foot closed end fund
- 6:04Speaker 8: trades at a wider discount than here in the US.
- 6:07Speaker 8: But just for reference that right now, according to our data,
- 6:09Speaker 8: is it a thirty two percent discount? So you're talking
- 6:12Speaker 8: about buying something that if you have the long term
- 6:15Speaker 8: vision in Bill Ackman and Ryan Israel and the team
- 6:17Speaker 8: at Pershing Square, you can buy it now and you
- 6:19Speaker 8: hold on to that closed end fund for as long
- 6:21Speaker 8: as you want, and you at least get access to
- 6:24Speaker 8: Pershing Square, the management company in the interim?
- 6:27Speaker 2: Is that discount, that thirty two percent discount, is that
- 6:30Speaker 2: bigger than typical?
- 6:32Speaker 7: So why is that? Why is he getting a discount?
- 6:34Speaker 2: Why is he having a hard time pushing out this
- 6:36Speaker 2: deal in the US market?
- 6:38Speaker 8: Well, it's wider because these things are more thinly traded
- 6:43Speaker 8: in the UK in Europe, so that's one part of it.
- 6:45Speaker 8: It's also the fact that these are essentially going to
- 6:47Speaker 8: be identical products. So if you're an investor, why would
- 6:50Speaker 8: you not cut a check today to get in at
- 6:53Speaker 8: least at NAV and then get the bonushares. I mean,
- 6:56Speaker 8: the counter argument is why would you not buy something
- 6:57Speaker 8: that's thirty two percent on sale?
- 6:59Speaker 6: Which is also the other.
- 7:01Speaker 8: Argument when you talk to folks in the closed end
- 7:03Speaker 8: fund space, is the only reason to get an incremental
- 7:07Speaker 8: buyer is someone who believes in the vision going forward.
- 7:09Speaker 7: So find first what a closed end fund is.
- 7:12Speaker 8: It's everyone knows what a netf is. It's essentially that
- 7:16Speaker 8: except for you can't withdraw your money. So if you buy,
- 7:18Speaker 8: you participate in this. At fifty dollars, you can sell
- 7:21Speaker 8: it in the market. It's like these BDCs and other
- 7:23Speaker 8: products that are permanent capital.
- 7:25Speaker 6: You buy it, you can pay this sticker price if you.
- 7:27Speaker 8: Will, but you don't get access to what the underlying
- 7:30Speaker 8: assets actually are worth. So if you buy it fifty
- 7:32Speaker 8: at trades at ten percent discount, you certin around sell
- 7:34Speaker 8: at forty five bucks, you lost five bucks. But if
- 7:36Speaker 8: you buy the Pershing Square London deal at a discount
- 7:39Speaker 8: or buy it today, you don't necessarily.
- 7:41Speaker 6: Care about the discount.
- 7:42Speaker 8: You just care where you can turn around and sell
- 7:44Speaker 8: it in a minute, a day, a year.
- 7:47Speaker 4: Just remind us again about what Bill Ackman's investing thesis
- 7:51Speaker 4: is because he was one of the most vocal activist investors.
- 7:54Speaker 5: We can all remember herbal Life.
- 7:55Speaker 4: And what he tried to do there and didn't get done.
- 7:59Speaker 4: But he's not really pursuing that path anymore, is he.
- 8:02Speaker 8: No, he's become kind of a relatively long view, taking
- 8:07Speaker 8: a longer view, I guess you could say. I mean,
- 8:08Speaker 8: the counter argument is he has exposure to Brookfield, he
- 8:10Speaker 8: has his exposure to Howard Hughes, which has been a
- 8:12Speaker 8: big position in the company. Also loves the technology companies Amazon,
- 8:15Speaker 8: Alphabet has been backing and tweeting a nauseum about Fanny
- 8:19Speaker 8: and Freddy and what they can bring us always, so
- 8:21Speaker 8: not necessarily your old school activist where you come out
- 8:24Speaker 8: with some reports and go head to head with management.
- 8:26Speaker 6: Now kind of taking a longer view.
- 8:28Speaker 8: And again the counterpoint to from some investors is if
- 8:32Speaker 8: I get paid to invest money, why am I turning
- 8:34Speaker 8: around and paying a fee to invest in someone else
- 8:36Speaker 8: who's investing money. And when you look at the portfolio, yes,
- 8:39Speaker 8: he's had some big winners and has done well in
- 8:42Speaker 8: the long run, but Amazon, Alphabet.
- 8:44Speaker 6: Uber Universal Music Group, they aren't.
- 8:47Speaker 8: According to some people I talk to, you necessarily novel
- 8:49Speaker 8: names that are kind of under the radar, if.
- 8:52Speaker 2: You will, So, I guess, just thirty second stuff, How
- 8:55Speaker 2: has this performance been?
- 8:57Speaker 7: I mean, has it been.
- 8:58Speaker 6: Depending on their data, pretty good?
- 9:00Speaker 8: But if you if you use the London based close
- 9:03Speaker 8: end fund as a comp relative to the US market,
- 9:05Speaker 8: it's underperformed on I believe a one year and two
- 9:08Speaker 8: year longer out has outperformed.
- 9:09Speaker 6: It kind of just depends where you slice and dice that.
- 9:13Speaker 8: But all things considered, it comes back to the whole
- 9:15Speaker 8: debate around do you want active money or do you
- 9:17Speaker 8: want passive money. It's really hard to outperform the S
- 9:19Speaker 8: and P five hundred right now.
- 9:21Speaker 7: Yeah, and this is going to be mostly institutional money.
- 9:24Speaker 8: According to Anthony's scoop, about eighty five percent institutional, fifteen
- 9:28Speaker 8: percent retail. But still, if you do that math, that's
- 9:30Speaker 8: about seven hundred and fifty million dollars of retail money.
- 9:33Speaker 6: So not sire performance by any stretch. Stay with us.
- 9:37Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 9:43Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
- 9:47Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto
- 9:50Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
- 9:53Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 9:57Speaker 4: We're looking at earning season unfold right now. Of course,
- 10:01Speaker 4: this is one of the busiest weeks we had. Verizon
- 10:03Speaker 4: reporting results this morning after its larger rival AT and
- 10:07Speaker 4: T had reported last week. Verizon surprising investors to the
- 10:12Speaker 4: upside with phone subscriber gains, the first time that it
- 10:16Speaker 4: has added phone subscribers like net positive in a first
- 10:19Speaker 4: quarter since twenty thirteen. So let's bring in John Butler.
- 10:22Speaker 4: He's our senior telecom analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. John, is
- 10:26Speaker 4: this credit to the new CEO, Dan Shulman that Verizon
- 10:31Speaker 4: has reported this phone subscriber gain?
- 10:34Speaker 9: Yeah, I think so, Scarlett. I mean, he really in
- 10:38Speaker 9: many ways brings a breath of fresh air to this name.
- 10:41Speaker 9: You know, there's he's bringing a level of rigor to
- 10:45Speaker 9: managing the company there being more disciplined, I would say
- 10:49Speaker 9: on the promotions front, specifically, they have pulled back on
- 10:55Speaker 9: providing aggressive handset promotions. He has deployed AI across the organization.
- 11:02Speaker 9: So we're seeing very dramatic operating expense cuts, and that's
- 11:06Speaker 9: flowing through to cash flow growth. It also increases the
- 11:11Speaker 9: safety of the dividend, which they described as as quote
- 11:14Speaker 9: ironclad unquote. So for a high yielding stock like Verizon,
- 11:19Speaker 9: that's great news to investors, and I think that flow
- 11:24Speaker 9: through to cash flow that we're going to see in
- 11:26Speaker 9: coming quarters coming out of all these expense cuts. It
- 11:30Speaker 9: really I think is helping to boost optimism here.
- 11:34Speaker 2: John, how do people investors look at this wireless space
- 11:37Speaker 2: and kind of position them the T Mobiles, the Verizons
- 11:40Speaker 2: to AT and T's how do investors play it?
- 11:44Speaker 9: Yeah, I think they're all different, Paul. You know, AT
- 11:47Speaker 9: and T is trying to reposition as more of a
- 11:49Speaker 9: broadband growth story. I mean, wireless still drives the bus there,
- 11:54Speaker 9: represents well over fifty percent of revenue. It does for
- 11:57Speaker 9: all three carriers. But I think AT and T wants
- 12:01Speaker 9: to be the broadband name. T Mobile wants to be
- 12:04Speaker 9: the wireless leader. They have the most spectrum and increasingly
- 12:09Speaker 9: the best five G network out there, and I think
- 12:12Speaker 9: for Verizon they're looking for balance between the two. You know,
- 12:16Speaker 9: they just close the acquisition of Frontiers, so they have
- 12:20Speaker 9: a much bigger fiber territory and a better fiber growth
- 12:24Speaker 9: story now, but they also have room to improve on
- 12:27Speaker 9: the wireless front. So I would say Verizon a balance name,
- 12:32Speaker 9: at and T a broadband name, and T Mobile a five.
- 12:35Speaker 6: G leadership name. On the wireless side.
- 12:39Speaker 4: Who is Verizon taking these customers from, these mobile phone
- 12:42Speaker 4: subscribers from, because this is pretty much a saturated market
- 12:45Speaker 4: in the US.
- 12:47Speaker 9: It is scarlett. It's a great question. What they're doing
- 12:50Speaker 9: now is they're pivoting from being a shared donor. So
- 12:53Speaker 9: if you look in prior quarters, they have negative numbers
- 12:56Speaker 9: almost every quarter in terms of their post paid net ads.
- 13:01Speaker 9: They were really net losses this quarter. Thanks to Dan
- 13:05Speaker 9: Shulman and a change in strategy there, we're seeing postpaid
- 13:09Speaker 9: net ads driven mostly by improved churns. So they're not
- 13:13Speaker 9: losing subscribers anymore. They're being very disciplined about not raising
- 13:19Speaker 9: prices anymore. They've sent that message loud and clear out
- 13:23Speaker 9: to the subscriber base, and they're adding more value to
- 13:27Speaker 9: their plans through content and other added features.
- 13:32Speaker 6: On the margin, I.
- 13:33Speaker 9: Think they're picking up a little bit of share, and
- 13:35Speaker 9: it's always lit across the board. It's hard to pinpoint,
- 13:38Speaker 9: but it might be a little bit from AT and T,
- 13:41Speaker 9: a little bit from Cable, a little bit even from
- 13:44Speaker 9: T Mobile. And they also, by the way, have a
- 13:48Speaker 9: lot of upgrade activity from their prepaid plans into post paid,
- 13:53Speaker 9: which then get counted as postpaid net editions.
- 13:57Speaker 2: John, the telecoms business is a pretty couple intensive business.
- 14:00Speaker 2: Is there another cycle that the industry needs to go
- 14:04Speaker 2: through or is kind of five G kind of where
- 14:07Speaker 2: we are at the moment?
- 14:10Speaker 9: So we are what they call mid cycle with five G, Paul,
- 14:13Speaker 9: These generational upgrades and wireless tend to happen every ten years.
- 14:19Speaker 9: We're about five years plus into it, So I would
- 14:23Speaker 9: say as we get to twenty twenty nine and twenty thirty,
- 14:26Speaker 9: certainly we're going to see an upgrade of the radios
- 14:31Speaker 9: and the technology to six G.
- 14:33Speaker 6: But we have a few years to go yet.
- 14:36Speaker 9: I think it's an important question for Verizon because for them,
- 14:41Speaker 9: they haven't deployed all their five G spectrum yet, so
- 14:45Speaker 9: in my mind.
- 14:46Speaker 6: They have room to grow.
- 14:48Speaker 9: A little bit in terms of the quality of their
- 14:51Speaker 9: five G network. And getting back to Scarlett's question about
- 14:55Speaker 9: where net ads are coming from, I think is the
- 14:58Speaker 9: network quality roofs that churn improves, so you're not losing
- 15:04Speaker 9: subscribers and you're enticing new people over to the network.
- 15:08Speaker 9: So we're mid cycle to answer your question, and about
- 15:11Speaker 9: four years away from that sixty.
- 15:13Speaker 4: Upgrade, John, T Mobile will be reporting results tomorrow, the
- 15:18Speaker 4: twenty eighth. Now that we've heard from Ate and Tea
- 15:21Speaker 4: and Verizon, what's the element of surprise going to be
- 15:24Speaker 4: for T Mobile?
- 15:27Speaker 9: I think the element is surprised. There might be on
- 15:31Speaker 9: the broadband side again, Scarlet, they have the best wireless
- 15:36Speaker 9: network out there right now with the most spectrums, so
- 15:40Speaker 9: spectrum equates to capacity.
- 15:43Speaker 6: To handle a lot of data.
- 15:44Speaker 9: They have been a leader in fixed wireless access, that
- 15:48Speaker 9: ability to provide a broadband link into the home over
- 15:52Speaker 9: your wireless network, and Verizon was weak there and my
- 15:57Speaker 9: read through there was T Mobile may have picked up
- 16:00Speaker 9: share in fixed wireless access. So if there's a surprise
- 16:04Speaker 9: in store with T Mobile, my guess is it's probably
- 16:07Speaker 9: going to be on the broadband side.
- 16:09Speaker 6: Stay with us.
- 16:10Speaker 7: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up there for this.
- 16:16Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 16:19Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple cocklay and Android
- 16:22Speaker 1: auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
- 16:26Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 16:30Speaker 2: Scarla Foom, Paul Sweeney Life. You're in our Bloomberg Interactive
- 16:32Speaker 2: Broker Studio.
- 16:33Speaker 7: Streaming live on YouTube.
- 16:34Speaker 2: There's been some unusual news I'll call it out of
- 16:37Speaker 2: the airline industry recently, like two of the major airlines
- 16:40Speaker 2: may bee merging. How would that ever happen?
- 16:43Speaker 4: I know it wouldn't let other smaller airlines combine. So
- 16:45Speaker 4: how on earth could in an American and a United
- 16:48Speaker 4: be joined.
- 16:49Speaker 2: Yep, we've got you know, maybe the US government taking
- 16:52Speaker 2: a big equity stake at another airline.
- 16:54Speaker 7: I don't know what's going on out there, but said
- 16:55Speaker 7: Phillip does. It's his job.
- 16:56Speaker 2: He's a deputy team leader for Global Aviation at Bloomberg News.
- 17:00Speaker 2: So let's start with United Airlines America Airlines potential discussion
- 17:05Speaker 2: of a potential merger.
- 17:08Speaker 7: Where did that come from and what's the status of
- 17:10Speaker 7: that now?
- 17:11Speaker 10: So American Allies has rebuffed United attempt to merge with them,
- 17:16Speaker 10: and so Scott Kirby has been talking about merging with
- 17:21Speaker 10: American Airlines for some time now. Bloomberg Groups has reported
- 17:25Speaker 10: it a couple of days ago, and Americans sort of
- 17:28Speaker 10: came out publicly by the end of the week saying
- 17:30Speaker 10: that they didn't think it was a good idea. There
- 17:33Speaker 10: was antitrust concerns. Then the Trump administration chimed in saying
- 17:37Speaker 10: that he wasn't in favor of Trump said he wasn't
- 17:39Speaker 10: in favor of a deal between American and United. And
- 17:43Speaker 10: so this seems to be a last attempt by Scott
- 17:46Speaker 10: Kirby to explain why the deal makes sense, and he
- 17:50Speaker 10: talks about how with some domestic asset, with some domestic
- 17:54Speaker 10: sort of reductions, this deal could have got through anti
- 17:57Speaker 10: trust scrutiny, and it sort of shows that United Airlines
- 18:00Speaker 10: is still not quite over being burned on this deal
- 18:05Speaker 10: and sort of is explaining why the rational makes sense.
- 18:09Speaker 4: Which makes me wonder whether United might be looking at
- 18:11Speaker 4: a smaller partner instead of American. You know, they wanted
- 18:15Speaker 4: to be the biggest airline by joining with American, but
- 18:17Speaker 4: if that can't be done, then maybe there's another partner
- 18:20Speaker 4: out there. And there is talk about more consolidation needed
- 18:23Speaker 4: right there is.
- 18:24Speaker 10: I mean everyone's been talking about how consolidation in the
- 18:26Speaker 10: airline industry is inevitable, especially as the high fuel prices
- 18:31Speaker 10: sort of hit the discount carriers and the smaller carriers
- 18:34Speaker 10: much harder than United and Delta. So United and Delta
- 18:39Speaker 10: have made that entire business based on the premium demand
- 18:43Speaker 10: and premium traffic, and that traffic has sort of helped them.
- 18:46Speaker 10: Whether even the current upheaval where passengers are willing to
- 18:50Speaker 10: pay higher prices just because they want to fly on
- 18:53Speaker 10: those two carriers, that hasn't read been this case with
- 18:56Speaker 10: other smaller carriers, especially at the sort of lower end
- 18:59Speaker 10: of that case economy. We have passengers saying that, hey,
- 19:03Speaker 10: do I need to take this trip? Can I hold
- 19:05Speaker 10: off on traveling? And so there's some hesitancy in bookings
- 19:08Speaker 10: and that's really sort of creating pain for the smaller carriers.
- 19:12Speaker 2: So for the smaller carriers, particularly with these higher jet
- 19:17Speaker 2: fuel prices, what's their future? I mean, wait, it looks
- 19:21Speaker 2: like they may need to be bit bled out those
- 19:22Speaker 2: certain extent absolutely.
- 19:24Speaker 10: I mean so Spirit Airlines, which is in its second bankruptcy,
- 19:28Speaker 10: is already sort of working on a plan for the
- 19:30Speaker 10: Trump administration to take out offer as much as five
- 19:33Speaker 10: hundred million in exchange for warrants that could allow it
- 19:36Speaker 10: to purchase up the ninety percent of Spirit Airlines and
- 19:40Speaker 10: the other localst carriers are sort of jumping in and saying, hey,
- 19:44Speaker 10: we need some assistance as well. And so the Association
- 19:46Speaker 10: of Value Carriers, which represents other airlines like Frontier and Novello,
- 19:51Speaker 10: has asked for two and a half billion dollars in
- 19:54Speaker 10: aid for the industry and sort of tied to jet fuel,
- 19:57Speaker 10: saying that they expect jet fuel to be over four
- 20:00Speaker 10: dollars a gallon for the rest of the year.
- 20:02Speaker 4: Which I guess is not unreasonable given where things are
- 20:05Speaker 4: going with the war in Iran specifically, we've seen the US.
- 20:10Speaker 5: Government come to the aid of airlines in the past.
- 20:13Speaker 4: I think back to twenty twenty twenty one. Didn't the
- 20:17Speaker 4: airlines get a lot of money from the federal government
- 20:19Speaker 4: that was never converted into equity.
- 20:21Speaker 10: They did, and at that time, during COVID, a lot
- 20:24Speaker 10: of basically fly airlines were grounded and airlines were sort
- 20:28Speaker 10: of forced to sort of keep planes on the ground,
- 20:31Speaker 10: and so airlines were given eight two and a half
- 20:35Speaker 10: billion dollars waid from the government in order to keep
- 20:38Speaker 10: workers on and not sort of layoff workers, and that
- 20:41Speaker 10: was sort of a key part of it. So there
- 20:43Speaker 10: is precedent during COVID, but sort of making an exception
- 20:47Speaker 10: for one airline at a time of crisis is something
- 20:50Speaker 10: that's not quite as precedented.
- 20:53Speaker 2: So what's the Is there a concern in the US
- 20:56Speaker 2: that if these regional low cost airlines don't I can't
- 21:00Speaker 2: figure out an economic model to thrive, that air service
- 21:05Speaker 2: and secondary and tertiary markets in this country may not
- 21:08Speaker 2: be as good or as vibrant.
- 21:10Speaker 10: And also there'll be less competition, so that basically drives
- 21:13Speaker 10: up prices. And so there is a concern that having
- 21:17Speaker 10: fewer airlines will lead to higher prices and that's not
- 21:20Speaker 10: great for the consumer, and especially at a time when
- 21:23Speaker 10: you're looking at an election, you have much higher prices.
- 21:26Speaker 10: People will see that immediately.
- 21:29Speaker 4: What is the latest with Spirit Airlines seeking some kind
- 21:33Speaker 4: of I'm going to call it a bailout, but okay,
- 21:35Speaker 4: a loan of up to five hundred million dollars.
- 21:36Speaker 5: I mean, this is something we've been reporting on the
- 21:38Speaker 5: last few days. Has there been any response from the
- 21:41Speaker 5: government on this?
- 21:42Speaker 10: There has Donald Trump came out and said that he
- 21:46Speaker 10: is in favor of a bailout he did talk about
- 21:48Speaker 10: how he would say fourteen thousand jobs, and there has
- 21:51Speaker 10: been some noise from this administration that they may be
- 21:53Speaker 10: receptive to the idea of offering Spirit a lifeline that
- 21:57Speaker 10: would get them out of bankruptcy and allow them to
- 21:59Speaker 10: sort of continue, despite the fact that oil prices have
- 22:02Speaker 10: upended whatever calculations they did have before they were going
- 22:05Speaker 10: to exit bankruptcy.
- 22:07Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
- 22:12Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
- 22:15Speaker 1: weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
- 22:19Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
- 22:23Speaker 1: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
- 22:26Speaker 1: and always on the Bloomberg terminal