Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | How Much Does Starting Pitching Matter? | MLB | 7/25/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | How Much Does Starting Pitching Matter? | MLB | 7/25/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chips.
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: The black coffee on the felt. Man, you look like
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down, baby, look at me. No, hold on,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: hold on nothing nice. Now, hold on, hold on me,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: but it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: And stay with me. Now what's up, everybody? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: back with you with Toadstool Sports for Saturday, July twenty fifth.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I got it wrong on yesterday's show The Play. The
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: day before that, the Toronto play actually had to be
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: a no play because the starting pitching changed. So Ian
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Seymour did not start for Tampa Bay. He came in
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: after an opener, after legumina, so I was not expecting
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: that to happen. Otherwise I would have said play at
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: action if I thought they were gonna do that. They didn't,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: so that had to be a no play. So I've
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: updated the record to reflect that, and it also reflects
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: the two and one day yesterday. We had a winning
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: day yesterday, although it was close. Obviously, the Cubs won
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: an extra innings. That was a close game. It was
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game. Both starting pitchers were good, you know.
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: I mean, I like Jones, Jared Jones, he was good
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: in the game. I didn't think he was gonna be
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: as good as he was. And Cubs. I mean, part
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: of the handicap was the bullpens. But yeah, maybe the
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Cubs shouldn't have won. I don't know, they got out
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: hit a little bit in the game. The other one,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: the Yankees winner, I mean they won one and nothing.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not happy about the Yankees winning, obviously,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I'm happy about giving out a winner on the show though,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: But the under was obviously the right way to play
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: that game, the Yankees with a one nothing win, but
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: the Yankees did win. I mean, it's still you get
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: the Yankees as an underdog with Schlittler on the mound, dude,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: until he gets to the point of the season where
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: maybe he's gonna run out of gas a little bit
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: because he's thrown too many innings or whatever. Getting him
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: as an underdog is kind of ridiculous. The Lozardo seems
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: like he's figured out his issues at home, or maybe
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: it's just maybe the Yankees hitting just they've been bad recently,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: the Yankees offense. So I don't know, but we did
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: get the win with that one, and then the over
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: in the Arizona game did not win, And of course
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: I was right about the other over that almost made
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: my card. I hate that the Astros White Sox. But
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: the Arizona Washington game, I mean that was there probably
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: should have been more runs in that game. It was
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: a two to two game in the fourth inning, so
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: it was trending at least close to being an overplay there.
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: And of course, given one of the bullpens is terrible,
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: it was looking all right there, and then the bullpens
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: just were good in the game. I don't know what
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: else to say about. I don't know how the were
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: that good in that game. The team's got more hits
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: than what you would think based on the amount of runs,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Like there were fifteen hits combined in the game. Usually
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: if that happens, you're gonna see more than five runs
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: come across. There were some walks going on there too,
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: and neither team could get these guys home. There were
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: a lot of base runners stranded in that game. Still,
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: probably wasn't the right call, but it was not as
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: bad as the final score made it look. All right, Charles,
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: what's up? We will have one underplayed today. All right,
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: let's see here. All right, Yeah, let's get into it.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Just baseball today. I mean, I'm not talking about the
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: WNBA All Star festivities that are going on. WNBA will
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: be back tuesday. We saw I tweeted out that Angel
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Reese looked like a drag queen out there. She's like,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: we're supposed to believe that she looks good right now,
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: like with pink dyed hair or whatever. She was like,
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what was going on there, man,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: she does not look good. Okay, it's not even possible
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: for her to look good. But whatever, baseball, let's do this.
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: We do have one earlier afternoon game. Kind of weird.
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, Saturday used to be like all afternoon baseball.
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: Now it's mostly evening baseball. But there are some afternoon
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: games today most there are some late afternoon games. There
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: are some early ones that are only later here on
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: the East coast, but there earlier on the Pacific coast.
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: There's one early early one here Kansas City and Detroit
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: one ten pm Eastern on ESPN Unlimited. Detroit already has
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: won two games in the series. This is gonna be
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: the third game of a four game series. They won
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: each game by one run. Detroit probably not a good
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: sign that they put up like no runs in yesterday's
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: game against against some pitcher that like his career has
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: never taken off or whatever. Whoever started for Kansas City
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: yesterday against school ball, I mean schoob Ball did his part,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: but Detroit's offense did not. Detroit only used two relief
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday. Kansas City used one, which was actually the
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: guy that they had start beck Way, so they must
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: have had like a starter come in after him. I
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: don't know who Kansas City used yesterday. They must have
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: had a starter or pitched the rest of the game
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: or something after that. I don't know what that was.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: This is a much better pitching matchup though, in this game,
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: well at least from Kansas City's perspective. But we have
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: two good pitchers in this game. The bullpen's Detroit has
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: the better bullpen. They're ranked eighteenth. They're not too bad.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: Kansas City is ranked dead last, although their ERA is
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: better than the A's, but this is still a very
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: bad bullpen. Both offenses are mediocre slash not very good.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: Kansas City eighteenth, Detroit nineteenth. Kansas City not as good
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: on the road offenseily or just generally. Detroit is a
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: better home team generally. Michael Waka is getting to start
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: for Kansas City. He's their best starter. I mean he's
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: he's like they're only good starter. But he's better at
• 7:12
  Speaker 2: home than on the road. He's got a three point
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: six to sixty RA one point one seven whip. He's
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: not as good on the road, like I said, four
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: point two to three Roady Ray. He was good in
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: his last start against San Francisco. He was struggling a
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: little bit going into the All Star break. He actually
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: pitched in the All Star Game. Uh. He's mostly been
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: good though this year. His hit rates pretty low, his
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: walk rates low, strike out rate isn't really that high,
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: but that's just not His game. Numbers against Detroit are
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: pretty solid as well, one hundred and sixty one at bats.
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: He has a huge sample size against them, and they
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: you know, that's just not a good side for the
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: hitting because they just they've had all that experience against him,
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: they haven't really been able to really get to him.
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: They have a two forty eight average six eighty six
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: ops against him. A lot of walks in here, though, Well,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: it's just few strikeouts, really, is what this is. It's
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: a bad ratio. Twenty seven strikeouts, twelve walks. It's not
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: really a lot of walks. It's just not many strikeouts.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: But yeah, walkout generally does okay against Detroit. Casey Mize
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: is pitching for Detroit. Miz is having his best season.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: He's got a two point seven to nine ERA, one
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: point zero three whip that's good. He's been really good
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: at home two point five. Homie Ray not quite as
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: good recently. His last two starts haven't really been that good. Still,
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: didn't really allow that many runs though He's got a
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: low hit rate on the season, low walk rate, strike
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: out rate more than one per inning. That's good as well,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: that's high. His numbers across the board are solid. He's
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: probably Detroit's second best pitcher behind school Bowl against the Royals,
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: though he's actually had some issues. Sixty six at bats,
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: three eighteen average, eight h two ops allowed, although a
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: lot of the damn is just like I said with
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: School Bowl comes from Salvador. So is one guy really
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: gonna just like determine this game alone? Probably not eleven strikeouts,
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: three walks, so myz Yeah, I mean, I know his
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: numbers don't look great. Overall, You're probably gonna get some
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: motivation out of Kansas City here if you really want
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: to buy into those starting pitching matchup numbers. Walka might
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of an edge here, and you're
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: getting him as a huge underdog. So I mean Kansas
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: City in the first five is a way to look
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: at this game. Detroit. Is it minus one eighty something
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: here on the full game. I would not want to
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: do anything with Kansas City's bullpen though, other than avoid it.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: But given what this price is, I mean, you could
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: get Kansas City plus half a run in the first
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: five at probably a pretty good price. Walk Them might
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: be able to battle Myze early in this game. So
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: I think that is one way of looking at this game.
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: The other option, I would say would be first five
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: under full game totals around eight, So you're probably gonna
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: be looking at A on a four and a half
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: in the first five, which is I think pretty reasonable.
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: If that's what the number is, fifty six percent of
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over, ninety two percent of the cash
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: on the under. I think generally both these pitchers are
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: fairly good, so first five under might make the most
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: sense in this game. First five Kansas City run line
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: is probably the other way that I would look at
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: that game. All right, Uh, yes, Braves, Yeah, I mean
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: they're they're winning again, all right, although I'm not expecting
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: them to win today. Arizona at Washington. This is gonna
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: be one of my plays. And no, this is not
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: gonna be an under. What are you crazy. We're gonna
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: go with one of the best first five pitchers in
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: baseball here, and we're gonna play him to do it again.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: Although we have to lay a run line on this
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: because the money line's way too high. We're gonna take
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: Washington minus a half run in the first five and
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: you have to lay minus one twenty on this. But
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: I think this is a big pitching mismatch here in
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: favor of Washington in the first five. I don't want
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: to deal with the bullpens. If you go money line
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: on this, you have to lay like mice one seventy,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: So obviously, I'm gonna knock this price way down and
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: get Washington to a They have to be winning at
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: the end of five, but I think they could do
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: this year. I think we have a couple of things
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: going for us year. Washington just returned from a road
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: trip yesterday and lost, and I like playing on teams
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: to bounce back after that happens, because I always talk
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: about how the road trip return is a negative. It
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: can be a distracted spot, and if the team loses
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of times, they will bounce back in the
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: next game. So I like that for Washington. One thing
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: I really don't like is the bullpen, of course, which
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: is why I'm taking them out. Arizona had very light
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: usage yesterday. They use three guys out of the bullpen,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: but very limited usage. Washington use four. Washington's the worst
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: bullpen anyway. They're twenty seventh, Arizona sixth, with an era
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: like a run better even though they're he's not even
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: really that good. So yeah, we'll factor out the bullpens.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Washington does have the better offense, the ranked number two
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Arizona twenty second, so we will get the better hitting
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: behind us here and we're gonna get the better starting
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. We're gonna fade Mitch Bratt here for Arizona.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: He might wind up being a decent pitcher, although I
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: don't know, man, I don't really think he's that highly
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: toted of a prospect. He is young, he's a left hander,
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: but he doesn't throw that hard. He's kind of a
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: small ish dude as far as pitchers go. At least,
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: he's got a five point six ERA one point seven
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: to eight whips so far. That's not good. Six ray
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: on the road is not good, although his road batting
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: average against is actually way better. Do with that what
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: you want. But he's not going deep into outings either.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, they are ramping him up. So he did
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: go a little bit deeper in his last outing, which
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: actually was not too bad against the A's. But I'm
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: really not expecting him to do a whole lot good here,
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: and he might not make it even you know, the
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: fourth inning here or whatever, So he might be out
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: of the game earlier than the end of the fifth
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: inning here. He's going up against a pretty potent offense here.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: They haven't seen him, which I know, I say is
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: usually an advantage for the starting pitcher, But in this case.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know how much of an advantage it's really
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: gonna be. I think Washington's gonna be able to score
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: against him, and we're gonna Backfoster Griffin here, who, like
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I said, he's been one of the best first five
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: inning pitchers in baseball. If you look at the pitcher's
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: first five records, his is really good. And he's been
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: really good on the season, shockingly from out of nowhere
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: a two point six to eighty array one point zero
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: three whip. I don't think it's really misleading. He's been
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: only slightly worse at home two point seven to five.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: Homie Ray had an All Star appearance, which a lot
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: of times will throw a guy off. First time you're
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: in an All Star Game or whatever, didn't matter to him.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: He went to the A's stadium, which is really difficult
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: to pitch, and he held him to earn run in
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: seven innings. Yeah, that's pretty good, So he was not
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: thrown off by being in the All Star Game. He's
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: allowed one or zero earned run in every start that
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: he's made, going all the way back through the beginning
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: of June, and he's gone more than five innings and
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: the majority of those two. Is that good? Yeah, I
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: think that's pretty good. He's got a low hit rate,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: low walk rate, his strikeout rate is decent, and he
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: does induce some pretty good amount of ground balls as well,
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: so he does pitch into some light contact here or whatever.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: Arizona is zero for twelve off him, by the way,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: with four strikeouts and no walks. So Arizona's current lineup,
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: nobody in this lineup has reached base against him before,
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: although I will say they've seen him once now. So
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: sometimes I talk about that the unfamiliarity when it goes
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: away and then that second time the offense faces that pitcher,
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: sometimes they will do better. But I don't even know
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: if that's gonna be enough. He did pitch at Arizona
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: in early June. He held him to one run in
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: five innings. So they did have a couple of guys
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: in that lineup that got hits off him, and those guys,
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: I guess are not in the current lineup for Arizona.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: I have no idea, but whatever, we're gonna back Griffin here.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: We're gonna take Washington in the first five. I just
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: think it's a pitching mismatch here. In my opinion, And yes,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: I know the price is a little bit much. Minus
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: one fifty something on the full game, minus one seventy
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: on the first five. We're gonna lay minus one twenty
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: to lay the half run instead seventy five percent of
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: tickets eighty three percent of the cash on Washington. They
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: look like they're kind of a public side, but I
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: think the public might have this one right. Looks like
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: I think the actual money is also playing Washington here,
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: so the books probably are gonna need it to not happen.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: But we could also get this right and lose the
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: full game, you know what I mean. Washington could be
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: winning after the first five and lose the game because
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: their bullpen sucks, So that could definitely happen here and
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: we'd still get this win. The money's also playing the
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: over at about nine. I don't have a strong opinion
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: on the total there because I like one picture and
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: I don't like the other one, so that will lead
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: me towards the side rather than a total. So that's
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: what I got on that one. Anaheim at San Francisco.
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: I thought San Francisco was in a bad spot yesterday,
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: in a return home spot where Arizona or Anaheim was
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: staying on the Pacific coast San Francisco return home. San
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: Francisco wound up winning on a walk off Dever's double yesterday,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: so a very dramatic win for San Francisco in the
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: return home spot. I mean, I don't think either of
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: these teams are good though, so there is that. So
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: this is kind of like, I don't know, I don't
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: know what do you even call this matchup? I don't
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: even know. It's a kind of bottom of the barrel
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: match up here. Anaheim used almost all of their relief
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: pitchers yesterday, which is not gonna be a good thing.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: These six guys out of the bullpen. Their bullpen's not
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: very good. San Francisco's has not really been that good either,
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: but they'll probably have an advance here. They used four
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: guys out of their bullpen yesterday. Anaheim is actually ranked
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: higher and whip like they have a better whip than
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: San Francisco twenty first versus twenty fourth, same era. But
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: I think the Giants probably do have the better bullpen here,
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and they're in the better rest shape, so they probably
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: have a slight bullpen edge. Don't think i'd really want
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: to back either, bullpen though Anaheim is twenty third in offense,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: Giants are fifteenth. But I think both offenses are not
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: that good. De bite what we saw yesterday with a
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: lot of runs scored in the game yesterday. Maybe it'll
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: happen again here though, I mean, this is not a
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: very elite pitching matchup here. But you could also maybe
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: make the argument that maybe both pitchers won't be that
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: bad here. It's difficult to figure this game out. Ryan
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: Johnson is pitching for the Angels. He's very young, hasn't
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: been that good so far six point one era one
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: point four to three whip kind of indicates his cra
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: should probably be more like five ish, which is still
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: not good. But there are some signs that Johnson might
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: actually not be that bad, although he's been bad on
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: the road seven point three six were road, Yeah right,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: yet that's obviously not good. Wasn't too bad in his
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: last outing. That really his last couple of outings haven't
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: been that bad, except his walk rate has been too high.
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: But he's been pitching kind of okay. Five innings in
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: each of his last two starts didn't really allow that
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: many runs. He's had a couple of starts, so he's
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: gotten blown up. But he's had some pretty good starts
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: in here too, So I don't know. Man, He's a
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: little bit all over the place. His hit rate is
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: slightly high, walk rate is still a bit too high,
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate is not really that great either. Sea overall,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: we're still looking at not great numbers here, but he's
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: shown some signs that maybe he's not that bad. Giants
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: have never faced him before except for Ramos, who was
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: over one often with no strikeouts, no walks. What I
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: will at least say is I think Johnson's not as
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: bad as his numbers look. That's that's how far I'll
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: go with him, and he might be able to do
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: okay against a pretty weak San Francisco offense here in
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly park. Robbie Ray is pitching
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: for the Giants here. He's been okay. A three point
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: three to three ERA one point three whip is not
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: that good, probably indicates his CRA should be a little
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: bit higher than it is. He's been good at home though,
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: two point four to four Homeyra only made it four
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: innings last time out against Seattle, but the fielding was
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: bad behind him. He only gave it one earned run
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: and looks like he couldn't get out of whatever inning
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: he was in the fifth inning, I guess because fielding
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: was a problem behind him. He's been pitching okay recently,
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: though in general, he went on a stretcher. He allowed
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: no er and runs in all but one start of
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: the month of June, and then he's allowed three or
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: fewer in all of his starts in July so far,
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: so that's not too bad. Overall, He's got a low
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: hit rate. His walk rate is too high though, and
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is low. So yeah, the walks are
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: definitely a concern from him. He's not really a strikeout pitcher.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: I think he's just kind of a mediocre pitcher. I
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: think he's not as good as he looked for the
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: majority oflast year. He had a really good season last year.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: He had an all Star season last year, and then
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: after the All Star break he got worse, which I
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: kind of thought was gonna happen. However, all that being said,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: he's been pretty good against Anaheim, but in a limited
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: sample twenty three at bats, five hitters have faced him
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: one seventy four average, six forty nine oh ps, ten
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: strikeouts six walks not a good ratio there. That's too
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: many walks, but Ray generally has been pretty good against Anaheim.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: I don't have much on this game, man, I mean,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: given Johnson being unfamiliar and maybe isn't quite as bad
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: as he looks, Ray at least might have a decent
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: matchup here. I could see an argument for a first
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: five under in this one. I would not go full
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: game under. The money's backing the over, though. Eighty one
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the under, sixty three percent of
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over totals at nine, so the
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: oddsmakers are kind of telling you. They put it out
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: at eight and a half on the opener though, and
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: it moved up to nine, so the money has kind
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: of pushed this number up. So there is definitely money
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: coming in on the over here. So oddsmakers kind of
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: think it's a high scoring game. Professionals seem to think
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: it's a high scoring game. I still kind of disagree
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: with that. Like I said in the first five, I
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: kind of lean under verse five, but I would not
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: want to risk it, obviously, and the market doesn't agree
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: with me. So that's not a great sign. Usually, Although
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I know I went against the market red with the
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: Cobs yesterday and that wound up being a winner. The
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: money is also back in San Francisco here at about
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty eighty three percent of tickets ninety three
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. I mean, I understand it,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: like Ray is the more established pitcher, and he has
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: some numbers that we can read into against Anaheim. So yeah,
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: I mean I probably wouldn't disagree with San Francisco, and
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: they probably do have the better bullpen too, so San
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: Francisco probably is the side that makes more sense. There's
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: there's no way I would want to play that game though, Yes, Yeah,
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: unfamiliar Johnson going under. Yeah, San Diego at Miami. Miami,
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: they gotta get a win here, man. I mean, they've
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: lost ten games in a row. They were in a
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: difficult spot yesterday, in a return home spot, not a
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: very good spot, as I always say, and a lot
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: of times that team will bounce back. So my first
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: reaction to this game was I want to look to
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: play Miami in this game, especially because I think they
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: have the better starting pitcher on the mound two. So
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: I think Miami is the way to look in this game.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: It's not gonna make the cut for me, as we'll
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: see in a minute, but the situation supports Miami here.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: I think they're finally gonna break this losing streak. I mean,
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: this has been bad, dude. Miami went from being a
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: wild card team to not being one. I mean, they're
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: definitely they're they're falling on some hard times here. Max
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: Meyer is injured for them now, and he was going
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: to pitch yesterday if he wasn't injured. Yeah, so things
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: not going well. Miami also so was forced into using
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game yesterday. They use everybody pretty much. They
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: use seven relief pitchers, so Miami's bullpen is in very
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: bad shape right now, so that's not good. San Diego
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: used quite a bit as well, they use five, but
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: they still have the better bullpen in my opinion, although
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: their el ray is almost four. I don't know what's
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: going on with San Diego's a bullpen right now. I
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: don't think they're anywhere or actually three point seven eight,
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're anywhere near that bad. Though they're
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: ranked eleventh, Miami's running fourth, but I give San Diego
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: a bullpen advantage here. Hitting wise, Miami has the better hitting.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: I don't think they're really the eighth best offense, but
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: they're better than San Diego. San Diego has been better recently,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: though they've moved up to twenty sixth. Still, I think
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: Miami's offense is better. This game's on Fox Sports one,
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: by the way, and San Diego is gonna be going
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: with JP Sears here. I think Sears is a pretty
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: mediocre pitcher. I don't think he's that bad, but he's yeah,
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: like I said, mediocre, four point three eighty RA one
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: point two to six whip isn't that bad. He's a
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: little bit better on the road, believe it or not,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: four point three ROADI ira. Even though pitching in San
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: Diego should be good for pitchers, Sears he's basically alternated
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: good and bad starts here, and if he continues doing that,
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: this one would be a bad start. So just keep
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: that in mind. He pitched pretty well against Atlanta last
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: time out. They've been limiting his pitches over his last
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: three starts. He's actually been pretty efficient with his pitches,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: though it seems like they're kind of limiting him to
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: five innings. Really is what they're doing here, But yeah,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: I mean Seriously, he's difficult to figure out. Uh, kind
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: of He's got a reasonable hit rate here, it's at
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: least below one per inning. His walk rate's not too bad,
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is okay. So yeah, overall, not horrible
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: numbers here. It's a limited sample size though, because he's
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: only made five starts this season. I think he was
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: like in the minors or something. And I don't think
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: he was doing well in the minors either, But I mean,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: I think he's good enough to be a major league pitcher, dude.
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: So it was kind of crazy that no major league
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: team wanted him when there are some other pitchers that
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: are way worse that are out there. Uh and Padres.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, they have Griffin Canning and their starting rotations,
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: so so why why wouldn't they have Sears in it too? Uh?
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: Sears has bet in the Canning Sears I was looking
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: to maybe fade him, but he does have good numbers
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: against Miami and twelve at bats, they only have two
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: hits off him, no extra base hits, no strikeouts, no walks.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: It's only five hitters will faced him though, one sixty
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: seven average, three thirty three ops. I think Sears might
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: be able to actually pitch okay. Here he's going up
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: against Juri Perez. Perez is the better of the two pitchers, though.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: Perez is still super young, and he's putting up a
• 25:43
  Speaker 2: good season here three point five to three e RA,
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: one point one to one WHIP, even though he is
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: also multiple TJ surgery is into his career as well.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: He's got a three point two home y RA, so
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: he's been solid at home. He's pitching well recently. He's
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: given up two or fewer and runs in every start
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: going all the way back into mid May, although he
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: did miss about a month with an injury in there
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: between late May and late June. But since he's come back,
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: he's been very good. Still, Perez like really low hit rate,
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: He's very hard to hit. His walk rate is a
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: little bit high. He does have some wildness, but he's
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: kind of gotten better in that department this year. And
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: he has a high strike out rate too. So I
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: think Perez is the real deal. I think he's good
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: against San Diego. He's been good and twenty five at
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: bats not a huge sample, one sixty average, allowed four
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: to sixty two oh ps, sixty two strike out walker
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: his show. Yeah, I mean not a huge sample size,
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: but still pretty good numbers there. I still gonna lean
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: to Miami, but I'll lean first five Miami here, and
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: I think the under might make some sense too, probably
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: in the first five. I just I don't see a
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: way to back Miami's bullpen here after they use everybody yesterday.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: But I think it should be a bounce back spot
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: for Miami. I think perez As is preferable the seers here.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: You're looking at minus one thirty something on Miami here.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: You're probably looking at a bigger price in the first
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: five though, But I think that is the way to
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: look at this game is to look at Miami in
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: the first five and if it's if it's like minus
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: one fifty or something on Miami there, I would say
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: lay the half run with Miami if you're gonna do
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: it that way. Fifty tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: cash on Miami. So the money seems to be agreeing
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: with me on Miami there. The money's also playing the
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: over eight, but you saw the matchup numbers there. I
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: think a first five under is also the way that
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: I would lean in this game. But I think my
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: preference is still Miami in the first five though, given
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: that it's a bounce back spot for them. Plus I
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: think Perez is the better pitcher, way higher ceiling there,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: so I think it makes sense, better spot, better started
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: pitcher basically there. Miami first five would be my best
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: lean in that game. Toronto at Boston my bust and
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Red Sox got the win again. Yesterday. Sandoval was like
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: skating on thin ice the whole time. Toronto. They stranded
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: a lot of bass runners. Yesterday Toronto did and then
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox blew a four nothing lead in the
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: game and then they wound up winning anyway, So that
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: I mean, do what you want with all that info,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: but the Red Sox are able to do. I get
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: some runs off of you, Savage yesterday and Sandoval, I
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: will say that Toronto in the first inning, like a
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: lot of the stuff that was going on the Toronto
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: when they were putting guys on base and whatever, they
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: weren't actually hitting Sandoval. They had like some cheap hits.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: There was some bad fielding. Sandoval was not on the
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: same page with Long, the catcher there, like he was
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: crossing up Long constantly. There was a wild pitch and
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: a pass ball in the first inning. I don't know
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: how Toronto didn't score in the first inning either. It
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: was just crazy. There was a lot of stuff going on.
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: But we don't have to worry about Sandoval pitching here
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: in this one. And on the surface, yeah, this looks
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: this looks like it's gonna be a pitching duel. Looks
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: like it's gonna be an under But I'm gonna push
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: back on that a little bit here. As far as
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, Toronto used five guys out of the bullpen yesterday.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Their bullpen is decent, but the Red Sox bullpen is better.
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: Red Sox used four guys. They did use Chapman yesterday.
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: They use pretty much all their better relievers yesterday. But
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: you know, the Red Sox are still a very good bullpen.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: They're number two in whip and also number two in ERA.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Toronto not bad. Out of the bullpen, Toronto's thirteenth. The
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have the better offense too, their twentieth. Toronto
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: is dead last at thirtieth. Dylan cees though it's pitching
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: for Toronto here cease. I mean, he's been really good
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: this year. Two point six to seventy RA, one point
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: one four whip he's been even better on the road
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: two point two eight road e Ray looked like he
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: didn't pitch that well last time against Tampa Bay, but
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: he only gave up three or runs. There was some
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: bad fielding going on behind him. He didn't actually pitch
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: bad in that game, so Cease is still in good
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: form right now. He did pitch in Fenway earlier this year,
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: and he had some command issues there, which has been
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: a problem for Cease throughout his career. He walks a
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: lot of guys, but he still shut the Red Sox
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: out in that game, although he kind of got lucky
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: to go five shutout innings there. The Red Sox just
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: stranded a bunch of base runners there. You can't really
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: expect to walk a bunch of guys and not take
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: some damage. But Cease has been really, really difficult to hit.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: His strikeout rate is really high, so he blows guys away,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: but it does lead to some inefficient pitch counts, and
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: his walk number is still way too high, so that's
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: his main issue there. But he's so good otherwise that
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: his numbers are all good anyway across the board except
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: for the walks. However, the Red Sox are actually not
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: that bad against The Red Sox have some kind of
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: mediocre numbers against him, sixty eight at bats to sixty
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: five average, seven thirty nine ohps, nineteen to eight. Right,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: I got walk ratio, so Cease doesn't completely dominate the
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. Red Sox have Sonny Gray on the mount.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Gray has been really good two point four to eighty RA,
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: one point one two whip two point one ERA at
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: home with a below two hundred opponent batting average at home.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: Gray has definitely thrived in Fenway for whatever reason. He's
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: in good form right now as well, other than the
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: fact he had too many walks last time on against
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay. Got a little bit lucky in that one,
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: but he did limit the damage there. Gray has been
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: good overall anyway, though he's allowed more than three or
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: runs only once this season. He's got a pretty low
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: hit rate, his walk rate is low, his strikeout rate
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: isn't really that high, but he gets a lot of
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: soft contact, induces a lot of ground balls. You know,
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: sheer talent wise. Obviously he's not as good as Cease,
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: and he's older than Ceased, but obviously he's pitch well. However,
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: he doesn't do well against Toronto in one hundred and
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: five at bats to sixty seven average, eight fifteen ops,
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: twenty one to five, twenty one to fifteen excusually strike
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: out walk ratio. That's not very good, especially for Gray,
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: who's not a guy who walks too many guys like
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: he usually does not have a bad strike up walk ratio.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: There's not a lot of leeway here if you're gonna
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: try to play an under man. It looks like it's
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: an under on the surface here, and the money is
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: back in the under. The total seven and a half
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: sixty five percent of the tickets and fifty six percent
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over, so the money seems
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: to be back in the under. And I understand these
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: are both generally really good pictures here, but you just
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: saw the matchup numbers like there's not a lot of
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: leeway here. If you're gonna try to play the under
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: I don't think i'd do it. And the Red Sox
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: are very public. Eighty nine percent of the tickets, fifty
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: nine percent of the cash. Yeah, because the Red Sox
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: have been winning all these games. They've won sixteen of
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: their last seventeen games. Dirty sock, what's up? Yeah, I mean,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: I would not play the Red Sox. I would probably
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: play I think I would play Toronto in the first
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: five here if I was gonna do anything with this,
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: I think Cease probably has the upper hand over Gray,
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: believe it or not. Or I might even maybe even
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: lean towards an over here. Again, there's not a lot
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: of leeway, and I think this game might wind up
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: going over just these pitchers don't have like elite numbers
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: against these opposing offenses year. But yeah, the money is
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: definitely fading the Red Sox though, eighty nine percent of
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: tickets fifty nine percent of the cash on them at
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: about minus one to eighteen. At this point, it looks
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: way too easy to play the Red Sox here, even
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: though Cease is a well known pitcher. Both these pitchers,
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: you know, get some like credit in the public's mind
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: and whatever, so even though Cease probably gets a little
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: bit more. But yeah, I mean, I think grabbing Toronto
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: in the first five as probably a slight underdog might
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: be the right lean there. Unfortunately, all right, Yankees and Philadelphia.
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: We did get the win with the Yankees yesterday one
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: to nothing. Lozardo pitched better than that. I thought he would.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: This game is not going to be a very good
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: pitching matchup. Though Philadelphia has not decided on a pitcher.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: It would be Ron Hell if they continued with what
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: they did five games ago, but they sent him to
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: the Miners, so I don't think it's gonna be him.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: I think Philly's going with some sort of bullpen game here,
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: which I'm pissed about that because the Yankees run into
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: Philly's worst pitching setup in this series, you know what
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I mean? Like I wanted the Yankees stap to face Lozardo,
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: Wheeler and Sanchez, and they will have to face Sanchez tomorrow,
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: but uh yeah, they're not gonna face Wheeler in the series.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: And Philadelphia has an undecided pitcher here. Whatever they're doing,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: it's not gonna be good. Okay, And Ryan Weathers this
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: pitcher for the Yankees, which I'm gonna look at in
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: a second. The Yankees bullpen is in good shape. They
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: used two guys yesterday, so they did have to use
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: their closer Bednar, but yeah, I mean, Schlittler got them
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: like seven innings yesterday or whatever. Philadelphia on these two guys,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: so both bullpen's arrested. The Yankees have the better bullpen,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: though they're ranked third and they're number one in Bullpenny
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Ray right now. Philadelphia not great at twentieth out of
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. Yankees have the better offense. So the This
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Yankee offense has been bad recently, like they've scored two
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: or fewer runs and I think most of their games
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: over the last week. They ranked ninth right now, tied
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: with Milwaukee. But I think their offense is better than that.
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: But they're definitely uh, you know, the Yangas have been
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: succumbing to being without Aaron Judge. Let's let's put it
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: that way. Phillies still worse. The Phillies are twenty fourth
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: in offense, although they do hit a little bit better
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: at home. Ryan Weathers is pitching for the Yankees. He
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: was going to pitch yesterday, but they put Schlitzler in
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: there instead, and that's why we made the play on
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the Yankees yesterday. Weathers, I mean, he's okay, a four
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: point four e RA one point twenty seven whip. He's
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: a little bit better on the road of four point
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: two to three d not in good form recently, though
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: three of his last four starts have been bad and
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: He's failed to make it five innings and all three
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: of those, so that's not really that good of a sign.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: His hit rate is right around one per inning, which
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: is mediocre. His walk rate is pretty low, though strike
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: out rate is high, so the stregout walk ratio is
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: still really good. So he has good command. So there
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: is that against Philadelphia, though Philadelphia's kind of rocked him
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: in thirty eight at career at bats three sixty eight average, fourteen,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: twenty six ohps, six to two strike a walk ratio,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: seven home runs off him. That is a ridiculous home
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: run rate. Yeah, they've hit him for a lot of powers.
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: So I don't really think Weathers is gonna pitch particularly
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: well here, and Philly's pitching set up is probably not
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: gonna be good. So I think you we're gonna try
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: to play this game not even knowing who Philly's pitcher
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: is gonna be. I would say play the game. Over
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: the totals nine, it's fairly high total. The money's backing
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: the under makes no sense to me. Fifty four percent
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: of the tickets and eighty seven percent of the cash
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: on the under. Yeah, that is not what I would do. So, yeah,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: I mean I think the only way that you could
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: really play this game give give them what we know,
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: is to take the over here. I'm not gonna do it,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: but that's what I would do if you force me
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: to do anything with it. The money's backing the Yankees.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Tickets on Philly sixty nine percent of the cash on
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. The Yankees are road favorite here, I like
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: minus won twenty something. And you know, I pointed out yesterday,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: Philadelphia is not that good at home. They're like right
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: around five hundred at home. The Yankees are like ten
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: games above five hundred on the road. So the Yankees
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: home road splits, beat Philly and beat Phillies. And what
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: I also pointed out yesterday was Philly has a negative
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: run differential, like their record is very misleading. Philly is
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: not that good based on the run differential, and the
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: Yankees have a very positive run differential like plus eighty something.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: Philly is negative like fifteen or six sixteen run diff
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: So the Yankees are the better team based on that,
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: even though I know the Yankees play more AL opponents
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: and the AL is weaker than the NL. But even
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: given all that, the run differential is still extremely different
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: between the two, all right, Cleveland and Tampa Bay. I mean,
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: this looks like an under just based on who the
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers pitchers are here, and I think maybe that
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: is the way to look at this game. This one's
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: not making the cut for me or anything. But Tampa
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: Bay won the game yesterday eleven to three, despite being
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: in the return home spot. They had a pitching edge there.
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: It was McClanahan against Cantillo, and Tampa Bay was able
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: to put up a ton of runs and win that game.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay used two relief pitchers. Cleveland has had a
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: lot of usage over the last two days. They used
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: five guys yesterday and they used a bunch of guys
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: in the extra inning game the day before that. Cleveland
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: is that they're at a bullpen disadvantage here, even though
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: they have the better bullpen era the rank sixteenth the bullpen,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: Tampa fifth in whip. But given the rest scenario, yeah,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: Tampa does have the bullpen edge in this particular game.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is sixth in offense. They obviously have the
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: better offense. Cleveland is twenty seventh. Even though I don't
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: think Tampa is quite that good, they're still better than Cleveland.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Cleveland is going with Tanner Biby here. I think Biby
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: is the better of these two pitchers, Like I think
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: he just has the better stuff, and he's the younger
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: pitcher here. Biby having a pretty good season three point
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: eight six ERA, one point one five whip, although he
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: gets very little run support, which is why his record
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: is so bad. He's been good on the road, a
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: three point six sixth ROADYRA. He's in pretty good for
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: him right now. His last two starts have been pretty good,
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: although he had a lot of walks against Miami. Was
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: good in the next start. We lost on an under
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: in that next start where he was up against Joe
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Ryan and somehow Cleveland just exploded against Joe Ryan. I
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: don't know what the fuck that was. But yeah, Biby
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: has generally been pretty good. He's got a low hit rate,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: it's walk rate's pretty as well. Strike out rate is
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: not really that high, doesn't really strike guys out at
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: this point in his career. But he's still pitching, or
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: well really maybe he's just never done it, but yeah,
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: he's not too bad. Against Tampa Bay, he's been quite good.
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: In sixty three at bats, one ninety average allowed six
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: point fifteen ops fourteen to five strike out walk ratio
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: not the greatest ratio, but overall, he's got good numbers
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: here against Tampa, and Tampa is going with Nick Martinez,
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: who I kind of think he's overperforming this year. But again,
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: Tampa's pitching coaching, they do something with these pitchers, man,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: they get the most out of their pitchers. Martinez is
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: not a young man and he's having one of his
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: best seasons two point five to ninety RA, one point
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: one two whip. He's been a little bit worse at
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: home though, three point oh seven homy Ira. But he's
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: also in reasonable form right now, except his strikeout rate
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: has been really low. Recently. He pitched in the All
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: Star Game and then he came out of the All
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: Star Game had another good outing against Toronto, but he
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: had no strike outs, so that that's kind of a
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: red flag. And going into the All Star break, he
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: had one strikeout in a start against Seattle. That kind
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: of worries me, man that he's just not striking anybody
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: out at all. He does have a reasonably low hit
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: rate here. His walk rate is definitely low. He doesn't
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: walk guys. His strikeout rate is really low, So this
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: type of profile, I mean, the advanced analytics guys definitely
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: don't like it because he's fly ball heavy, so he's
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: relying on a lot of flyball outs, which is not
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: exactly what you want, but it is what it is. Man,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: He's still pitching effectively, so you got to give him that.
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: And he's facing a weak Cleveland offense here, and Cleveland
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: has not done well against him in forty five at
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: bats one seventy eight average, five seventy eight ohps, nine
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: to four strikeout walk ratio. Yeah, like I said, this
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: game looks like an under to me, I think first
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: five under might be the right way to look at
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: this game. But the money's back in the over. But
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: the total seven and a half, so the oddsmakers were
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: eight in some places. Odds makers are telling you that
• 42:01
  Speaker 2: they think it's gonna be a low scoring game here,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: and obviously a lot of it has to do with
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching. I don't like the bullpens really though,
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: Like Cleveland's bullpen is very, very taxed right now, so
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: I think a first five under is probably the way
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: to play this, but you're gonna be looking at like
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: a three and a half. It worries me a little bit.
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: There's just not a lot of leeway there, you know.
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: And Tampa's like minus one thirty or so on the
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: money line here, eighty nine percent of the tickets, ninety
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on them. I mean, Tampa's very
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: public here. I don't think I would want to play Tampa,
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: even though I mean Tampa's very good at home. I
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: will say that there. I think they have the best
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: home record in baseball. But I think Baby might be
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher out of the two here. Cleveland is
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: an underdog in the first five. I think maybe makes
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: some sense, but first five under makes the most sense
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: to me in that game, all right, Chicago and Pittsburgh,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: Cubs and Pirates. I should say we got the win
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: yesterday with the Cubs. They won an extra innings. We
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: got a little bit lucky with that one, but that
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: was a winner on the show yesterday with the Cubs.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, hey, the bullpens were prout of the equation
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: man in both the Cub win yesterday and the Yankee
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: win yesterday. The Cubs used three relief pitchers yesterday. They
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: have the better bullpen over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh used four. Cubs
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: have struggled a bit recently out of the bullpen. They're
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: fourteenth right now, but that's still better than Pittsburgh, who
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: are twenty third and have a worse bullpen ERA and
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: less rest here, so we'll give the Cubs the bullpen
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: advantage here. Both teams have been good offensively, especially at home.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: For Pittsburgh that've been good, although they didn't do much yesterday,
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: but their third overall Chicago is a fourth the Cobs,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: so both teams can hit. However, I don't think we're
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: gonna see a lot of offense in this one, given
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: what this pitching matchup is showed to. Im Naga's pitching
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs. I told you he's still good man.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: People are saying, oh, he's been figured out now he's
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: all of a sudden bad like. No, he isn't.
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: Like.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: He's given up some home runs, but his overall numbers
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: were pretty good and his ERA is now back into
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: the three. He's three point nine to one ERA, one
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: point one to one whip. Those are good numbers. He's
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: been good on the road as well, three point six
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: to eight road. The Ray pitched quite well in his
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: last outing against Minnesota, which was at home. He's been
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: good for a couple of starts in a row here.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: Three of his last four have been pretty good, so yeah,
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think he's kind of back and form here.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: His command numbers have been pretty good over that stretch. Overall,
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: numbers look pretty good across the board. A hit rate
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: is reasonable, definitely not too high. His walk rate is low,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rate is decent. Yeah, I mean, I still
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: think i Monaga is a good pitcher. He pitched well
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: against Pittsburgh early in the season. In fact, he had
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: a six inning no hitter against Pittsburgh and they took
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: him out at one hundred pitches, didn't let him go
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: for the no hitter man, But he's been good against
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh throughout his career. Fifty five at bats, he's basically
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: completely dominated them. They have one extra RaSE hit, which
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: is a double from Triolo one twenty seven average three
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: zero three obs, nineteen to two strikeout walk ratio. Yeah,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: Ima Naga has been dominant against Pittsburgh. Although Pittsburgh is
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: better this year than they have been in the past,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: and they do hit well at home, but I think
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: the matchup favors Ima NAGA against their offense, and Pittsburgh
• 45:22
  Speaker 2: is going with Paul Skeens. So yeah, I mean, obviously
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: this looks like it should be an under. But I'll
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: show you Skeens matchup numbers in a minute, and they're
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: actually not really that good. Skeens three point four to
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: three ERA, which is not good for for Skeens, that's
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: too high. But his whip is pretty good at one
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: point oh four, so I think his ERA should be
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: lower than that. He's been better at home three point
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: oh four home era was really good in his last down.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: He's been good just generally recently. His last three starts
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: have all been pretty good. Getting his strikeout rate back
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: up as well. He's got a low hit rate on
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: the season, low walk rate, high strikeout rate. I mean,
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: obviously you expect all of that out of him, and
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: that's all still happening. Pittsburgh had gone on a stretcher,
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: they lost like ten starts in a row of his
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: they've broken out of that and they've won his last
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: three starts and he's won all of them, so you
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: know they're backing him with some runs now. He's still
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: pitching pretty well against the Cubs, though his numbers are
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: kind of mediocre. In one hundred and seven at bats
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: two forty three average, seven to twenty five ops, forty
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: to sixteen strikeout walk ratio is not really that good.
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: Although eleven of the walks are between Bush and Hap,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: who are two of the guys that hit him better
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: in this lineup, he's still not bad against them, but
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: he's not dominant against them. I mean, I still think
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: probably a first five under is still probably the way
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: to look at this game, although you're gonna be probably
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: looking at that dreaded three and a half number there
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: if that's what you're gonna do, and everybody kind of
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: knows Paul Skeins is a guy that you probably want
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: to try to go under with the total. You actually
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: might get a little bit of a better total on
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: this because the total is around eight at some point,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: so you might be able to find a four in
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: the first five here. And maybe not, but possibly, But
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: the money's backing the over fifty one percent of tickets
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: on the under eighty four percent of the cash on
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: the over. Obviously, like I said, I would play the
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: first five under here, I would avoid Pittsburgh's bullpen. But
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: first five under makes sense to me, and Pittsburgh is
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: getting the money at about minus one thirty seventy six
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets ninety one percent of the cash. On Pittsburgh,
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: I actually disagree with that. I would lean towards the
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: Cubs in this one. I would take the Cubs as
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: the dog in the full game because im Naga. You
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: saw his matchup numbers, dude. I think he can at
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: least kind of battle schemes here and get us to
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, and then I think the Cubs will have
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: a bullpen edge there. So I like the Cubs on
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: the side in that one. But I think first five
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: under probably makes more sense than anything else. But it's
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: not gonna make the cut for me. This next game
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: is going to and this is more about pitching form
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: and Garrett is not going to like this, but the
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: money agrees with me on this. We're gonna take Baltimore
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: in the first five innings against Atlanta at minus one twenty.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: This is kind of similar to the Washington play in
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: that both teams are just outside of DC No. But Baltimore,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: like Washington, just returned home from a road trip and
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: took the loss yesterday, So I think a lot of
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: times the team has a tendency to bounce back after
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: that happens, because that road trip returns spot is difficult.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: I know they only lost seven to six, but I
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: think it could be a bounce back coming off of that.
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: And obviously I like the starting pitching matchup here to
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: favor Baltimore. I'm gonna leave their bullpens out, even though
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Baltimore's bullpen has been good recently, but I'm gonna keep
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: them out of the equation because Atlanta does have one
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: of the best bullpens. Baltimore used four guys out of
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: their bullpen yesterday, Atlanta used three. Atlanta's still the number
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: one bullpen and whip they're number three in a era
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: still really good though Baltimore's ninth, and Baltimore's been one
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: of the better bullpens in baseball over the last few weeks.
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna leave them out of this equation. It
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: justocused on the starting pitching here because at the very least,
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: both bullpens are good here, but probably Atlanta does have
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: the slight bullpen edge. Atlanta's ranking seventh in offense, Baltimore
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: is seventeenth, So yeah, Atlanta does have the better offense,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: but I don't think it's that significant, even though Atlanta
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: is better on the road. But we're gonna fade Bryce
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: Elder here, man. I mean, I think Elder he's kind
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: of falling into bad form again.
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: He's got a four point six ERA one point two
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: to three whip. I know those are not terrible numbers.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: He was good for a good chunk of the season,
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: but he's been pitching pretty poorly recently, and he also
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: isn't good on the road five point three to one
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: road ERA. So we're playing into the home road splits here.
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: He's got bad home road splits for the road games.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: He was really really pitching poorly through four straight starts
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: between the June fourteenth and July July ninth, and a
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: couple of those were against bad offenses Mets in San Francisco,
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: and those are both on the road. I had a
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: good start last time out, but it was against San
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: Diego at home, so I'm not gonna put that much
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: weight into that. And San Diego has not been a
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: very good offense, so I don't really consider that to
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: be Elder totally coming back into form here. Elder overall,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: him and his hit rate is not too bad. His
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: walk rate is okay, his strikeout rate is okay. So yeah,
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: it's a lot of mediocre to hear from Elder. But again,
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: he's not good on the road. I don't consider him
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: to be in good form at all. Right now, soums
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore are not that bad. They only have four
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: guys who have faced him. But again, I'm going with
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: pitching form here for this and situation for this game. Here,
• 50:37
  Speaker 2: Baltimore has a two thirty eight average seven to thirty
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: three ops against him. It's kind of mediocre stuff there,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: and I know they're unfamiliar with them to some extent,
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: but I think they should be able to get something
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: off of him here. They have three strikeouts one walk
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: against him. But I'm gonna back Brandon Young here. I
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: think Young is still pretty under the radar, dude. I
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: think Young is actually not that bad of a pitcher.
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: He's shown Glynn in the past, but this season has
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: been pretty decent for him, and he is also pitching
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: well recently, which is, like I said, we're playing into
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: the recent form here. Baltimore has also won a bunch
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: of his games. I mean, he's eight and two, so
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: Baltimore plays well with him on the mound, so maybe
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: there is something to that. He has a three point
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: two to five RA one point three to one whip.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: He's been better at home, although slightly three point oh
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: four RA. His opponent of batting average is slightly worse
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: at home, so splits just aren't that significant. But he
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: was really good last time out against Houston. Baltimore's won
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: all three of his starts this month. They won six
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: of his last eight starts. Actually, they've won ten of
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: his last twelve starts, I should say, and actually twelve
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: of his fifteen on the season. So or no, yeah,
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: is that right? Yeah, I think that's what it was. Yeah.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: So he's been good, like basically all season. He's a
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: lot more than three or on runs only twice on the season,
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: or no, yeah, twice. He's got a reasonably well he's
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: hit rate, I guess kind of mediocre. I guess strike
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: out rate is or excuse me, walk rate is okay,
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is not really that good. See, I
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: know his overall numbers aren't really that good, but we're
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: playing into the current form here. Like I said, he
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: wasn't that good towards the beginning of the season. He's
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: been pitching better throughout the season, Like the last couple
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: of months, he's been good and he's gotten his walk
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: right way down recently, so that's a good sign to me.
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: And against Atlanta, they only have one guy who's faced him,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: Dubon is zero for five with a strikeout against him,
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: So Young has unfamiliarity here against Atlanta. So that's the
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: other thing I'm playing into, is the unfamiliarity aspect of this.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: I think also favors Young. And the money is heavily
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: agreeing with me on this. Seventy percent of tickets on Atlanta,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: ninety two percent of the cash on Baltimore at about
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: minus one sixteen or so. We're playing first five only,
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: so we don't have to try to go up against
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: Atlanta's probable bullpen edge here. But I like to starting pitching.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: I like it to be a bounced back spot for Baltimore.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: I like him to come out with some intensity here,
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: or whatever you want to call it in baseball focus.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: We'll take Baltimore in the first five. It's a little
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: bit of a heavier price, but not too much to
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: play them in the first five instead of the full game,
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: because the oddsmakers know that the bigger edge they have
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: is the starting pitching. All right, as in Minnesota, I'd
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: said this looked like an over series, but yesterday's game
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: went way under h. Jacob Lopez, I guess, was really
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: good in the game, and I showed you he had
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: good numbers against Minnesota, although he sucks, but that game
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: was very low scoring. Zebbi was probably pretty good in
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: that game yesterday too. I think if any of these
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: games in the series is gonna go over at this point, though,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be the one today because Joe Ryan is.
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan screwed me many times this year though, But
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan is pitching tomorrow's games, so and I thought
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: he was gonna pitch today, but I guess it's because
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: Minnesota hasn't had a day of rest or whatever, so
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: they're pushing Ryan back to tomorrow and we have no
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: idea who Minnesota's pitching today. That's probably not a good thing,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: because Minnesota's pitching sucks. They're not good, dude, except for
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan. Well, and actually Tadj Bradley and Zebi are
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: actually not really that bad. But Minnesota's other pitchers all suck.
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: Minnesota use three relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen sucks. The
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: A's bullpen also sucks. They used four guys out of
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: the bullpen. These are two bad bullpens. A's are twenty
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: eighth and they have the worst bullpen e RA. Minnesota
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: is twenty ninth. They're also bad. Both offenses are pretty
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: capable on Minnesota is where are they at now? Thirteenth?
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: As are eleventh, tie with Houston's. Yeah, these are both
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: offenses that can get the job done. Minnesota tends to
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: play a lot of high scoring games at home, and
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: the A's are going with Mason Barnett here. Barnett, he's
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: pretty young, but he has not had a good career.
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: This season. He's got a four point six y four ERA,
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: one point three to six whip, and I think it's
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: all relief appearances this year. Last year he was a
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: starter and he did not do well. His ERA was
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: almost seven through five starts and his WHIP was one
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: point sixty six. Yeah, that's not good, even though sometimes
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: these young guys will turn it around. But there's really
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: not a lot to like with Barnett here. His numbers
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: this year are not any good coming out of the bullpen.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better on the road. I
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: guess he can give him that four point one five
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: roadyra He's made a lot of just short appearances. Though
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: you look at his overall numbers, the walks have been
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: a huge issue. Like his hit rates not too bad,
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: his strikeout rates pretty good. Walk rate is way too high.
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: He's close to walking one guy an inning. You can't
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: do that, man, Minnesota's never faced it before. But I
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: don't trust Barnett here. I know he has the unfamiliarity edge,
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: but he might even be an opener here. He might
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: not even go that deemon in this game. I guess
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: you have to look at what do the A's do
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: five games ago? Let me see the as use Lopez?
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: But wait, what really? But he pitched yesterday. I don't know.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with the A's, but
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: it looks like it's gonna be some sort of bullpen
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: ish game from them, and it looks like it's gonna
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: be the same for Minnesota. So it's hard to figure
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: out anything with this game, not really knowing a whole
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: lot about it. But the total is really high at
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: ten and a half, which the Osbiggers are telling you
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: they're expecting runs here. I think I would play the
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: over if you forced me to give out an opinion
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: on this. That's really the only thing that I got
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: that I could see of this game is it looks
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: like you're gonna have a horrible pitching throughout this entire
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: game from both teams. So I think the over makes
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: the most sense here. It is a very high total, though,
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: but you're under that key number of eleven. Though fifty
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets on the over, eighty eight percent of
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: the cash on the over money is back in the A's.
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: I couldn't tell you why seventy nine percent of the
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: tickets on Minnesota fifty eight percent of the cash on
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: the A's. I understood why the money was back in
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: the A's yesterday. I kind of liked it in a
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: way because Minnesotas are turning home from the road. Lopez
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: had good matchup numbers at least, But I worried about
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: it still because I thought Zebbi was just the more
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: talented picture there. This one. I don't really get it
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: other than it's, oh, we know who the picture is
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: for the A's and we don't know who Minnesota's picture
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: is yeah, okay, but you could argue for a bounce
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: back spot for Minnesota, right, because when a team loses
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: in the return home spot, you could argue they're gonna
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: bounce back in the next in the next game there,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: All right, I'll be right back. I'll talk about the
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: remaining five games here and then that'll do it for
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: the show. I have one more play here, and like
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: I said, it is it is an under and you
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: could probably already guess which game it's going to be
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: in if you well, actually maybe you can't, but maybe
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: you can. I'll be right back. Yeah, yep. Inside, I
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: want to kill myself. We were on OWN seven run
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: over the last two days after tonight. It was just
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: complete bullshit. So that's that's how I'm gonna start off
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I don't even
• 58:06
  Speaker 2: know what to tell you about that. I just don't
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: want to do this anymore. I have never seen anything
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: not a good day at all. Own four that have
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: not had a good season. Man with wickens the slump
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached a
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my Bruins hack, Man,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: March eight, Is that what it is? I don't even
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: know it's March ninth? I think who even knows? Man,
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: I don't know what day is anymore. But I don't
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: To the Slump series, the Slump Discontinus, the slump continues.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: I should do at this point, other than potentially end
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: it all, all right. I just saw on ESPN over
• 59:26
  Speaker 2: here it looks like Asi fud I guess won the
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: WNBA three point contest, which I was paying no attention
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: to it. I guess she's the first first round draft
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: pick to win it as a rookie or something very strange,
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: because I thought she was like a defensive player, like
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: I thought that was her thing, like just all defense,
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: because she hasn't been putting up offensive numbers, so I
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: don't know. She's the player that Dallas drafted out of
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: Yukon and she's literally dating Dallas's previous first round first
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: overall pick, which Becker's who is hurt right now. I
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: think they're both out of Yukon and they're both on Dallas.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: It's a very very weird situation. But yeah, whatever, w
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: NBA is a strange thing. Man Fenway Franks. Fenway Franks
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: are pretty good, but they cost like ten bucks apiece now,
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: it's completely ridiculous.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: So though.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: One of the games I was at last year, I
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: got I got like multiple free ones towards the end
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: of the game because one of the dudes whatever you
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: call the dudes that walk around, the hot Dog guy,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: he was walking around in my area and he just
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: had a bunch of hot dogs that nobody was buying
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: at the end of the game and had to just
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: get rid of them because I guess they're just gonna
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: throw them out if they don't. So I'm like, yeah, yeah,
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: I'll take a couple of those, yes. Elmer will uh
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: as the fudd is uh is black, so't I don't.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know what Elmer was doing, all right. Next
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: game is Colorado and Milwaukee. Colorado one yesterday. I have
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: no idea how I mean, Milwaukee was a huge favorite
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: in that game. I'm pretty sure Milwaukee is the better team. Colorado,
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: I guess, probably has a chance in this game because
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: the pitching is just not anything special on either side here,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: So I guess this game could be kind of chaotic.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee might be in bounced back mode ever, kind of
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: an embarrassing loss yesterday, though this Milwaukee team is good.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: They used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday, Colorado
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: used three. Milwaukee has the way better bullpen here. Milwaukee
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: is ranked eighth, Colorado twenty fifth. There's a big edge there.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: Colorado has been good offensively fifth, although I still am
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: not sure they're that good. On the road, Milwaukee is ninth,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: tied with the Yankees. Ryan Feltner is pitching for Colorado here.
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: He's he's not good, but he's one of their less bats.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: A pictures and one thing that you know, it had
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: n't really crossed my mind because I'm like, oh, well,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: Colorado was all these bad pictures because they're stadium like
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: ruins every picture. But the other thing is pitchers just
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: never want to go there, you know what I mean,
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: because it's so difficult to pitch a course field, so
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: they can't even get good pictures to come to their
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: team basically, you know what I mean. Even though you
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: would think that if they make a move for a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: guy like he has to go there, he has no choice.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: I don't know whatever. But Feltner's pitching here. He's got
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: a five point four to eighty or a one point
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: four to two whip, obviously not great. He's better on
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: the road by a little bit, which is expected a
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 2: five point three to two roady a rail those opponent
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: batting average on the road is actually worse, although it's
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: in a small sample size. A Feltner he was pitching
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 2: well for a stretch, but he's been bad his last
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: couple of outings. One game on the road to get
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: San Francisco and then at home last time, horrible performance
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. His hit rate is right at one per inning,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: which is mediocre. His walk rates too high, his strike
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: gut rate is not particularly high. Nothing to really like
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: about Feldner here with these numbers, except that he's actually
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: good against the Brewers. In eighty one at bats, they
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: have a one seventy three average, four sixty four ohps,
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: twenty one to six strike at walk ratio, So Feldner
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: might actually pitch okay here. There's definitely a possibility of that.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee's going with Robert Gasser, who is a mediocre I
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: would say a four point nine to one ERA one
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: point two to one whip is not that bad Gasser.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: He's been bad on the road, but he's been good
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: at home, and that's where he is today, three point
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: one six home e Ram had a pretty bad outing
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: a couple outings ago at Pittsburgh, but he's been pretty
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: good in the other starts around that, so he's pitching
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: okay recently. He's obviously the pitcher that's in the better
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: form here and probably just the better overall of these
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: two pitchers. His hit rate is reasonable, it's below one
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: per inning. His walk rates not too high, pretty decent there.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: Strike got rate is decent as well. So yeah, Gaser
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: is the better of these two pitchers, and Colorado's never
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: faced him before. The thing is, if you want Milwaukee here,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: you're like, yeah, they should have the pitching edge throughout
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: this game. You gotta pay minus to thirty basically for
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee here. You can't do that minus two thirty with
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: Gasser as the starting pitcher. I don't think Gasser should
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: be that much of a favorite against anybody man, even
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: if he is better than Feltner. You just saw that
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: Feltner has good matchup numbers here of tickets ninety one
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on Milwaukee. They're very very public,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: you know. I mean, the money's back in the over
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: at nine here. I think a first five under might
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: be worth a consideration here, given that Feltoner actually pitches
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: pretty well against Milwaukee, He's not a course field here
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: in Gasser has the unfamiliarity against Colorado. It sounds insane
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: and there's no way I would actually want have money
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: on that. But if you needed to be, like, if
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: I had to give you a lien on that game
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: at all, I think that might be what it would be.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: I haven't in a course field now, yeah, I mean
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: it's a somewhat newer stadium. Yeah, I'm sure the stadium
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: is it better be because the team, the quality of
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: the quality of baseball is not good, so the stadium
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: itself better be all right. It'll be like being in
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: a minor league game. You know how they are all
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: these minor league stadiums that are nice stadiums, and you know,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: they really emphasize the fun because a lot of parents
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: will like take their kids, like, oh, let's go see
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: a baseball game, and it's less expensive. I used to
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: go to a lot of Patucket Red Sox games with
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: my dad. The paw Socks, who are now the WU Socks,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: And the WU Socks just brought up Franklin Arius. By
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: the way, who's the Red sox number one prospect. He
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: might be up with the major league team before the
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: end of the year. Man, let's go the reds dude.
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: It's crazy that the Red Sox are doing what they're
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: doing right now with all these injuries. Like, think about
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: how many injuries the Red Sox have right now. Roman
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: Anthony's hurt, Marcella Meyer is hurt, Garret Crochet is hurt,
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: Connolly Early is hurt right now, Ryners Suarez is hurt
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: right now. It's it's ridiculous. So three of their starting
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: pitchers who are in would be in the rotation, they're
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: all out. A couple of their best young talented hitters
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: are out. I mean, it's so insane. All right. Next
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: game is Houston and the White Sox, and looking at
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: this starting pitching, my first instinct was, yeah, this looks
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: like an under. It's Hunter Brown against Sean Burke. I've
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: started looking into it and I'm like, I don't think
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be an under. Like, certainly not gonna
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: be a bet for me. Houston used basically everybody out
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: of their bullpen yesterday. They use six relief bitches out.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: That is seven, six, I think is what that is.
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: I can't count with my stroke brand. I can't see
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: how many lines there are. It's very, very weird. The
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: White Sox where are they at? They used four, so
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: their relief staff is a little bit more rested here.
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who won the game yesterday, to
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: be honest, I think Houston did. Yeah, that's right, yeah, right,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: because I remember that game went over, which is what
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: I That was my recommendation on that game yesterday was
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: the over. It wasn't a play for me. I wish
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: it was, but yes, Houston won the game nine to five. Yesterday,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: the White Sox were returning over from a road trip
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: so the White Sox might be the way to look
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: in this game, because when you return home from the
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: road you have a bad game, a lot of times
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: you play better in the next game, So the White
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: Sox might do that here. As far as the bullpens,
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: I don't love either bullpen here. Houston's been better though,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: at least over the last month plus. At this point,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: they're seventeenth now, which isn't too bad. The White Sox
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: are nineteenth. They have a better era than Houston and
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: they're more rested, so the White Sox probably a slight
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. Houston's tied in eleventh in offense with
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 2: the A's White Sox are fourteenth in offense. These are
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: both decent offenses. Hunter Brown is pitching for the Houston.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: I think he's good, but he's had some issues this year. Man,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: he's a good young pitcher, but these injuries that he
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: that he's had have kind of derailed him a bit,
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: and I think at some point he is going to
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: bounce back, but he's been out of control recently, like
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: his wildness has been really really insane, and I don't
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: think he's backable given how many walks he's issuing. Recently,
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 2: he's got a four point zero five ERA one point
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: four to five whip That is not good, although again
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: he is much better than this if you look at
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: what he's done the last couple of seasons. He's got
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: a three point six Roady Ray, so he has better
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: on the road, and his opponent batting average is very
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: low both home and away, so he's not allowing a
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: lot of hits. And the problem is the walks. Dude,
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 2: He's had fifteen walks in fourteen to two thirds innings
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: in the month of July. What the hell is that?
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: More than literally more than one walk per inning. You
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: can't do that. I mean, that's unbelievable, really really, really bad.
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: He's got a pretty low hit rate here on the season,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: his walk rate is ridiculously high because of this month
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: pretty much, and his strikeout rate is high, so again
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: he does have his strikeout ability. He's getting a lot
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 2: of ground balls too. He's a good pitcher. He's just
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: got to figure out this control issue that he's got
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: right now. You know, other than that he'd be pitching. Well,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: we've gotten screwed on the show trying to back him
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: a couple of times, I think, But and I think
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 2: one of the times we did get a win when
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: we backed him in one of these games. But whatever,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's backable right now with how many
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: walks he's issuing it against the White Sox. They only
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: have three guys who have faced him, but they've done
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: damage against him, and of course one of them is
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Ben and Tendy, who does have a home run against him.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: They have a three fifty seven average eleven forty three
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: ohps against the two strikeouts four walks Brown. Given that
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: he's walking a ton of guys right now, the White Sox,
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: even though they're kind of un familiar with him, the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: guys that have faced him have done well. I don't
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: think Brown is necessarily going to be that good here.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: Sean Burke is pitching for the White Sox. He's having
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: a good season. He's in better form right now, a
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: much better form than Hunter Brown. Right now. Burke has
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: a three point two ERA one point one to three whip.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: He's worse at home though, for whatever reason, three point
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: seven to seven home ERA. But he's been really good recently.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: Like I said, he's allowed two or fewer on runs
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: and six starts in a row, He's allowed no more
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: than one in any of his starts this month. He's
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: got at least six innings in all three of them.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: He has a twenty five to one strikeout walk right
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: here this month, as opposed to Brown, who has an
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: eleven to fifteen ratio. Yeah, Burke, his command has been
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: completely on point here. He's pitching really well at the
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: moment and overall throughout the season he's been good. He's
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 2: got a low hit rate, low walk rate, pretty high
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: strikeout rate as well. He's good. However, Houston has clobbered
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 2: him in seventeen at bats. Most of theirs have faced
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: them before five point twenty nine average sixteen to seventy
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: three ops. I know seventeen at bats is not much,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: but basically everyone in their lineup has seen him like
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: one time, one strike out, one walk here overab but
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: Burke bad matchup numbers. It's a small sample for both starters,
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: but I'm kind of thinking over is the way to
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: play this game. And I also would probably agree with
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: the White Sox if you're looking at pitching current form
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: plus the situation, which I think favors the White Sox
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: and the bounce back spot. White Sox makes some sense
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: as far as a lean there mightus won twenty something.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: I think probably have a little bit of a bullpen
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: edge too, so I think you could go full game
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: White Sox. They have sixty two percent of tickets seventy
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 2: six percent of the cash on them. That would be
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: one lean for me, and I think the over might
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: be the better lean in this game. And it looks
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: like the money agrees the totals at eight and a half,
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of tickets on the under, ninety one
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the over given to these
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers are you would think the total would be lower,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: but the odds makers kind of hinting at something by
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 2: not putting this total, Like I thought it would be
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 2: like seven and a half or maybe eight, and it's
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: eight and a half. So I think the and that
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 2: it opened at eight, but juice to the over, So
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 2: I think the odds makers are kind of telling you
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit there with that total there. So yeah,
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: I think the over is actually the best way to
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: play that game. But I would also lean to the
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: White Sox there. I mean, it's not really the injured play.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: The injured player theory is a is a single game thing,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: and I don't think it matters much at baseball at all.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: Like it's just the Red Sox have really really good
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: team chemistry right now, all of a sudden, they're starting
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: to actually have fun playing the game, and the crowd
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: is back into it in Fenway, and uh, the dudes
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: are doing the tops off. Everybody's taking their shirts off
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: in Fenway. Now, yeah, it's a it's a good environment
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: at this point in Vnway. But yeah, all right, next,
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 2: this game is my last play, so you already know
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: what it is. Maybe this one seems too obvious, and
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: whenever I say that, it feels like I lose the play.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 2: But we're gonna take Dodgers Mets under the eight here,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: which I found at minus one, p. Fifteen at the
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: scoreboard book that used to be owned by ESPN, although
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 2: I think you'll find a similar number to this out
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: there at some other books. I would if you want
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 2: to go under seven and a half, I guess you
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: could do that too. But I saw him under eight
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 2: at like minus one eighteen or so, which I think
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: is also fine on the surface. Yeah, this looks like
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: a good starting pitching matchup. I mean, when you dig
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: into the numbers. I agree. I think it definitely is
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 2: also one. Sodo is hurt now, by the way, so
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: I expect Sodo to not play tonight for the Mets.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: He went out of yesterday's game with an injury, so
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: I think he's probably not gonna be in the lineup
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 2: for the Mets here, which is going to hurt. They're
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: already not particularly good lineup. This game is on Fox.
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 2: It'll probably be the game that everybody watches. I mean,
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 2: who's gonna watch Seattle, Texas? Like really La and the Mets.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: It's a much bigger market. I mean, both teams are
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: in much bigger markets. I should say who won the
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: game yesterday? I'm assuming the Dodgers did. Yeah, the Dodgers
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: won four to two. It was a Mets return home
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: spot yesterday. Dodgers got the win. Dodgers, we know they're
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 2: the better team. Dodgers used two guys out of the
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: bullpen yesterday, although I think they used their closer right,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: which is maybe they didn't. I thought I thought their
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: closer was I forget who I thought they're I don't
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 2: think it was any of these I don't I don't
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: know what the Dodgers are doing right now, but they
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 2: used two guys the Mets used three. Both bullpens are
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: pretty solid. The Dodgers are seventh, the Mets are tenth.
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: These are both pretty trustworthy bullpens and they're not really
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: overly worked here, so I think we can use both.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: We can include both bullpens in this. I think that's fine. Dodgers,
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: we know they're an e leite offense, they're number one,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 2: and they're pretty good on the road too, but I
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: think they're gonna be stifled a bit by Nolan McLain here.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: And the Mets offense we know is bad. They're twenty eighth,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: tied with the Mariners right now. Bad times for the Mariners, man,
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: but also the Mets. If Sodo is out, they're gonna
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: be even worse here, and they have to face Yoshinobu Yamamoto,
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 2: who we know is good two point seven to eighty
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: ra point eighty eight whip is really good, and he's
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: been better on the road to two point twenty four.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: Roady Ray's opponent batting average is below two hundred, both
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: at home in on the road, so yeah, he's been good.
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: He is coming off a complete game against the Yankees,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: threw over one hundred pitches. But he's thrown over over
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: one hundred pitches regularly, so I'm not really that worried
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: he's I mean, at this point, he's used to that,
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: so I'm not too concerned by that. Maybe you could
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: be concerned a little bit by the letdown aspect of this,
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: because he did just pitch well. It wasn't like a
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: he was nowhere close to like a perfect game or
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: anything like that. And in fact, we lost on the
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: under in that game because the Yankees imploded late. The
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: Yankees bullpen completely fucked up the under there. That game
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: should have gone under. I'm pretty pissed about that. Yamamoto
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: did his part to get us the under their complete game,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: two runs allowed there. He's been good on the season. Obviously,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 2: he's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, strike
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: out rate isn't that high, but he's not a huge
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: strikeout pitcher. But obviously we know he's good. Against the Mets.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: He's been good forty one at bats, two twenty average,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: six sixty three ohps, nine to two strike out walk ratio.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 2: That's all pretty good there. He pitched against the Mets
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 2: early this year, I believe, Yeah, back in April. He
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: went seven to two thirds against him, allowed one run
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 2: on four hits, seven strikeouts, one walk, threw over a
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 2: hunderd pitches in that one. I expect him to do
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: well again. That was at home, but he's actually better
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: on the road, So yeah, I expect him to still
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 2: pitch well here. And I like, you know, I like
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: Nolan McLain as well. I think McLain is clearly the
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 2: best pitcher that the Mets have, even though he is
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: still young, and the warrior is gonna be at some point.
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: Is is going to get up there, and you got
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: to worry about that at some point. But I don't
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: think we need to worry about him quite yet. He's
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 2: got a three point three four ERA one point zero
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 2: nine whip. Maybe a concern that he does have a
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: four point four to seven home y RA, so he
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: struggled a bit more at home, although his opponent batting
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: average is still pretty low at home, so I am
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: not too worried about that. He pitched well last time
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 2: at home against the Red Sox. He's been good four
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 2: starts in a row, and really he's only had one
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: bad start since the beginning of June, so he's pitching well.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: He's in pretty good form right now. His walk rate
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: was a little bit elevated early in June, but he's
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 2: kind of figured that out. He's been good this month,
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: really good command numbers this month, high strikeout rate the
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 2: last two starts, double digits against Philadelphia last time out. Yeah,
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 2: he's pitching well. He did face the Dodgers early this season.
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 2: He was fine in LA. He went seven innings. He
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: gave up two arned runs or gave up one earned run,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: excusing on two hits, eight strikeouts, two walks, So he
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: pretty much silenced the Dodgers in that outing. On the road,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: I know he's not quite as good at home, but
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: that's a good sign that he was able to do
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 2: that on the road to the best offense in baseball,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 2: and I think he should be able to do it
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: again here, even though I know in that when he
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 2: had the unfamiliarity, and I do talk about that, when
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: the pitcher is unfamiliar to the opposing hitters and the
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: pitcher is good, the hitters will struggle that first time
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: to try to figure him out a lot of times,
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 2: and a lot of times they'll do better the next time.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 2: But it's been three months as they've seen him now,
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 2: so they're not seeing him, you know, twice in a row,
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean. So I think that'll mitigate
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 2: that a little bit. Plus, I think he's just a
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 2: good pitcher, So I think he will pitch well enough
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 2: here to get us this under. He doesn't have to
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 2: be as good as Yamamoto. Like if Yamamoto outpitches McClain
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: and McClain just does well enough, we can still get
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: this under. Obviously, McLain has a low hit rate. His
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 2: walk rate is a little bit high. Like I said,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: he had some command issues for a stretch in June,
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 2: but he's kind of he's been better at that recently.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 2: And his strikeout rate is quite high. And yeah, he
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: has a pretty good ground ball rate too, so yeah,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: he's not allowing a lot of fly balls not along,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: which basically translates into not allowing a lot of home runs,
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 2: you know. And again his strikeout rate is so high
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: that he obviously has the ability to fool guys at
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: the major league level, which is good against the Dodgers,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: which is mostly that one start from before they're one
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: for nineteen off him. The only guy that had a
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: hit was Monsey with a single. They had seven strikeouts
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: one walk, which was Kyle Tucker, so that translated to
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 2: an fifty three average and one fifty three ops. Again,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: even if mcclan doesn't do as well this time, it
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: should still be good enough to get us the under here.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: So that's what we're gonna do. I know, there were
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 2: a few games that looked like this should be under,
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: so this is the one that I landed on. I'm
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: a little bit worried that the market read is saying
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: no here in the totals basically seven and a half
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: everywhere now, so I would still probably do it at
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: seven and a half. I mean, you're still on the
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 2: right side of that key number of seven. We have
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 2: sixty seven percent of tickets on the under, fifty four
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under, so that worries
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 2: me a little bit. I do you really think the
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: public is actually playing an under here, even if they
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: know both pictures are good, I'm still not sure the
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: public is really gonna want to come in and play
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 2: an under in a Dodger game. So I don't know. Man.
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 2: The market reed does warring me a little bit, but
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: I still think this is an under and the money
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 2: is backing the Mets here, by the way, the Dodgers.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 2: I kind of agree with that too, because the Dodgers
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: are just heavily favored here minus one fifty something. Given
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 2: that this is a good pitching matchup on both sides,
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: and it's supposed to be kind of a low scoring game,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: that makes the underdog more appealing, you know what I mean,
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: Because if it's supposed to be a low scoring game,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: both pictures are good, it could be a closer game.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: That means the underdog's got a decent chance to hang
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 2: around ninety four percent of tickets ninety two percent of
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: the cash on the Dodgers. I think if you want
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: to look towards like a Mets money line situation or
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: something like or excuse me, Mets run line situation, maybe
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: money line. You know, I wouldn't necess I sarahly disagree
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: with that, but I think the under is the right
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: way to play that game, all right. Yeah, and then
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: we have a couple more games here, Cincinnati and Saint Louis.
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: I was looking at this, and my initial instinct on
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: this was, oh my god, we're getting Cincinnati is an
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: underdog with Hunter Green on the mound against Piantde Like
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: this really looked like it should be a Cincinnati first
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 2: five play, and I still agree with that, but looking
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: at the numbers, it doesn't appeal to me as much
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: as I thought it would. Saint Louis lost the game
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: yesterday to Cincinnati four to two. Cincinnati does not have
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: a good bullpen, so I would leave Cincinnati's bullpen out
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: of whatever I'm doing here. They used five guys out
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen Saint Louis had to play the day
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 2: before that. They used three guys yesterday. I don't trust
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: either bullpen, but Cincinnati's is worse. They're twenty six Saint
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: Louis twenty second. Not good bullpens, not really good to
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: offenses either. Cincinnati twenty first, Saint Louis twenty fifth. And
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 2: this is a pitcher friendly ballpark. Hunter Green is pitching
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: for the Reds. Like I said, people are gonna shy
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: away from him because he has a six point six ERA.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: But remember he had one bad start and I tried
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: to back him. I gave out a play on him
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 2: in that start, and it was bad. He had one
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: bad start when he came back. He started the season
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 2: late due to an injury. He was dominating in the
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: miners dude before he came back, so I thought he
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: was gonna be ready to go. Had a bad start,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: but he's been good since then. He's got a one
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: point one six ERA, so that right away tells you
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: his ERA should be nowhere near six, like it should
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 2: be like three something. So that era is extremely misleading.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: So that that's a scenario where you usually want to
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: back a picture because you're usually gonna get some value
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: on that picture. And like I said, they're an underdog here,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: and they probably shouldn't be because I think Green is
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 2: the better pitcher here. Green he's been a little bit
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 2: better on the road so far four point five ROADRA,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: but his opponent batting average on the road is below
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: two hundred. I mean, like I said, he's only made
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: three starts so far. He was really bad in his
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: first start against Baltimore, which was in Cincinnati. He bounced
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 2: back with an excellent start at home against the Cubs
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: after that, and then he was pretty good in course
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: field after that. So yeah, I think Green after that blip,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: he looks like he's back. He's a good pitcher man.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: He's got a reasonably low hit rate already here, his
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: walk rate is fairly low and his strike gout rate
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: is very high, So yeah, he's in his in form
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: as far as uh, as far as I'm concerning that
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: strike out rate is really good. Against the Cardinals, he's
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: been pretty good on forty one at bats to sixty
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: eight average isn't really that good, but a six to
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: sixty eight OPS hasn't a lot a lot of power
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: hitting to them, mostly contact hitting, sixteen to six strikeout
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: walk race should yeah, I think Green should be able
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: to do well here. And Andre Pallante, he's okay in general,
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 2: a four point two ERA, one point twenty six whip
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: for the Cardinals here. He's not good at home though.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: He has an ERA of four point nine to nine
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: at home and at two nine three opponent batting average,
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: so he's way worse at home. So all of that
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: looks pretty good for backing Cincinnati here so far in
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: the first five. Problem is and Payonte hasn't really been
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 2: a good form either. Recently, He's not really striking out anybody.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 2: He's given up some runs over the last two starts.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: Hasn't really looked good, So yeah, he's not a good
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: form either. So Green is in better form. Payonte's hit
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: rate is just okay. His walk rate is not horrible,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 2: strike out rate very low. He doesn't strike guys out.
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: He gets a lot of ground ball outs, very very
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: heavy ground ball pitcher, which is it kind of reminds
• 1:24:34
  Speaker 2: me of David Peterson, except his whip is better than Peterson's.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: But the problem is Payonte has been good against the Reds,
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 2: and that's where I worry. We have a huge sample
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 2: size here, one hundred and thirty two. They've seen a
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: lot of them. They have not done well against him.
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 2: Two twenty seven average six sixty five ops twenty two
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: to fourteen strike out walk ratio though that's not a
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 2: good ratio, but the rest of those numbers are good.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: I'm still gonna lean towards since NATA since here, but
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: the money disagrees with me. Fifty four percent of tickets
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 2: on Cincinnati, which makes no sense to me. I don't
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 2: know why the public would be on Cincinnati. I mean,
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: like they have a picture with a six era and
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis has the better records. I don't buy that
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: the public is on Cincinnati. I don't think they are
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: fifty five percent of the cash on Saint Louis. Saint Louis,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: like I said, they're a favorite. I look minus one
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: eighteen or the Cincinnati might be a slight favorite in
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: the first five, but I still think that's one way
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: to play this is to play Cincinnati on the first five.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: And I like Green over Payante for sure, and you're
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: getting some value there, especially if Cincinnati is a little
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: bit of an underdog in the first five. I would
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: not include their bullpen though, and I think the other
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: way to look at this game is to play the
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: first five under, although the money's playing the over. The
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: totals at eight eight and a half of the full game.
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: I don't like the bullpens obviously, but I think first
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: five under. You saw what the pitching numbers looked like there,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: that might be worth considering a first five under. It
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: would be like probably four and a half. You might
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: be able to get on that. But I still think
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: my preference would be to play Cincinnati in the first
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 2: five there. It looks pretty tempting, dude. I know, I
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: wish I backed Green in that game against other Cubs
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: like I almost did. Remember I have the only time
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: I bet Green so far was this one bad start
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 2: and I tried to find spots to back him because
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: he's a good pitcher. So that's what I got on that.
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 2: And then the last game is Seattle Texas on Fox.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: Like I said, in Texas, two good pictures on the mount.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: It looks like it should be an under. The total
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 2: is low, it's seven and a half. It's a picture
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 2: friendly park. Texas typically scores less at home. They don't
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 2: give up as many runs at home. I got some
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: issues though, if you want to try to play the
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: under here, even though it looks like on the surface
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 2: that should be an under, the oddsmakers are kind of
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 2: expecting it to be an under here. Both bullpens should
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 2: be good, but Texas has not been that good out
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: of the bullpen recently. Texas used four guys yesterday five
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 2: excuse me five. Seattle only used two, so I think
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 2: Seattle has a bullpen event. But what happened in the
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 2: game yesterday. Let me see, Texas won. They were able
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 2: to beat Bryce Miller yesterday. I pointed out, even though
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: Miller has been excellent this year, he had bad numbers
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: against Texas, so that was a little bit concerning. And
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 2: Texas won the game yesterday five to four, so it
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: could be a bounced back spot for Seattle here. I
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: think Seattle's got the better bullpen right now. I like
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: both bullpens generally, but Texas they've fallen off. Dude, They're
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 2: I'm looking at a hitting right now. Hang on, Texas
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 2: has fallen to fifteenth in bullpen and their eray is
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: well over four. Now. I don't know what's happening with
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 2: their bullpen. That's not good man. And then yeah, I
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: stillid that banner up. I'm not paying attention man, I apologist.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: Seattle's been good. They're twelfth in bullpen, but their era
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 2: is pretty strong in the mid threes, so I think
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 2: Seattle's bullpen is legit. I think they're the better bullpen here.
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 2: They're more rested here as well. Texas, believe it or not,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 2: has been the better offense though they're fifteenth right now,
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: tied with San Francis Skull. Though I don't like San
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: Francisco's offense, but Texas, I think they're at least not
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: like a bottom of the barrel offense anymore. They're like
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: decent offensively, although they're batting average is still not really
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 2: that good. Seattle's been really struggling offensively. Though they're twenty
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 2: eighth tied with the Mets, they still have not been
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 2: able to turn it around. Seattle's going with Brian wu Here,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 2: who I think is a good picture, and I think
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 2: he's better than his era looks four point one six,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: but his one point zero nine whip tells you that
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 2: his ra should be better than that. Wu is a
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 2: good picture. He's been good throughout his career. A problem
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 2: is he has insane home roads. But he's been excellent
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 2: at home and he's been terrible on the road. So
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 2: that's not a good sign for the under or for
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: backing wu Here six point two eight road era with
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: an opponent batting Averager two ninety five. I don't know
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 2: what is going on with him on the road, dude.
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 2: He's been really bad on the road, which that's really
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 2: never been the case, even though he's been better at
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 2: home throughout his career. But he's never been anywhere near
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: this bad on the road, So I don't know what's
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 2: going on with him there. He's in pretty good form
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 2: right now, though his last few starts have all been
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: pretty good. One of them was on the road against Miamia,
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 2: though that one was the lesser of all of them.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: Though his hit rate is low on the season, his
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: walk rate's really low. He doesn't walk anybody. His strike
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 2: out rate is almost one per inning. So it really
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: doesn't make sense why like his Rodeo ray is as
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 2: bad as it is, because his overall numbers are good.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: So I don't get it. I mean, I guess he's
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: just that elite at home. His numbers are good against Texas.
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: He should pitch well here, man, even though he's bad
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 2: on the road this year, which really really scares me.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 2: But this is a picture friend the environment, and he's
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 2: been good against Texas throughout his career. It's seventy seven
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: at bats. This is like dominant stuff here, one eighty
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: two batting average, four to sixty nine ohps, twenty to
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: four strikeout walk ratio. All of that is really good
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: in a big sample size. So I still kind of
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: lean towards WU pitching well here. Nathan Evaldi's pitching for Texas.
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 2: He was really good for Texas last year. This year
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 2: he hasn't been as good. A four point two to
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: one ERA, one point two to one whip. I still
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 2: think he might be a little bit better than what
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: his ERA looks right now. He has a four point
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 2: six home ERA for some reason. He was way better
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 2: than that at home last year, but his opponent batting
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 2: average is actually better at home at two thirty five.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what's going on. Really, it's the
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 2: home runs, that's what's going on with him. He's allowing
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 2: too many home runs and he has struggled recently though,
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 2: so again, the under looks a little bit questionable, given
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 2: that he's allowed three plus runs in three starts in
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: a row here, and he hasn't gotten particularly deep into
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: some of these starts here. Recently. The home runs have
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: been an issue for him, but his command numbers has
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: still been really good. He's got a twenty one to
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: five strikeout walk ratio this month. So again, this kind
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: of tells you he's still like in command of his pitches.
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: He's in control of them. He's still pitching really well here.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 2: Just the home runs keep getting to him. Man, He's
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: allowed a lot of home runs and he's not even
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: really that much of a fly ball pitcher. He has
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 2: more ground ball out some fly ballouts, So the home
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: run rate just doesn't make any sense. I can't figure
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 2: it out. His hit rate is okay on the season,
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 2: it's below one per inning at least. His walk rate
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 2: is low, his strikeout rate is high. So again I
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: think he's getting unlucky, like his numbers should be better
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 2: than this. The home runs are hurting him against Seattle.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: He's been good in one hundred and fifty two at bats,
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: a huge sample size here forty one to nine strike
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: out walk race here to twenty four average, six nineteen obs.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: So those are good numbers. So I think this still
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 2: looks like an under to me, like if I was
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: gonna play this game, maybe even leave both bullpens in still,
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 2: but the money's back in the over fifty nine percent
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: of tickets on the under, ninety one percent of the
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: cash on the over total seven and a half, So
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: it is low. There's not a lot of leeway there,
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 2: and it's teetering on seven. I still think that's what
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: I would do if I was gonna play this game.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: I think I would still jump on the under the
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: seven and a half here because the pitchers are still
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: good here. Man, I think they've both gotten a little
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: bit of a bad I don't know, man, I think
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 2: the luck for them has been a little bit bad
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: this year. They both got an array over four, and
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: I think neither of them really should. So I think
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: you might have pictures that are a little bit undervalued here,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 2: believe it or not, and the money is backing Texas.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 2: They're a little bit of an underdog here. Seattle's about
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: minus one twelve or so here. Fifty three percent ticket
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 2: sixty two percent of the cash on Texas. I mean,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 2: I could see the argument for it, right. The argument
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: would be, well, WU has those extreme splits where he's
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: been really struggling on the road, and you're getting Texas
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 2: as an underdog, and at the very least should be
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 2: like a matchup where both pictures should be able to
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 2: duele each other. So I think that would be the
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: argument for grabbing Texas as the dog there. I think
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: if I was gonna do that, I would go first
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 2: five with it, though you know, I don't know how
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 2: much of a dog they'll be in the first five though,
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 2: but Seattle probably does have a bullpen edge there. I
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 2: think if you're gonna go under, like I said, you
• 1:32:56
  Speaker 2: get the key number seven and a half on the
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 2: full game. I don't think you really need to exclude
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 2: the bullpens, even though I know Texas has been struggling recently,
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 2: but I'd probably still go full gam on that. But
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 2: there are some concerns with looking at the under and
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: that and that's gonna do it.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: My plays today are Washington on the run line in
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 2: the first five, Baltimore money line in the first five,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 2: and we're gonna go under in Dodgers Mets. That's gonna
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 2: do it. Hopefully we can get them. The market readlooks
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 2: like it supports at least the first two of those.
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: Let's get it done, man, Let's have a winning day here.
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: Two and one would work for me, even though if
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: we lose one of the ones who were laying the
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: minus one twenty, it'll be a little bit less of
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: a win. But whatever. Learn it tone on Twitter, learn
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 2: it to on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here,
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: boost it up, man. We're over five hundred. We want
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 2: to get to one thousand. Man, let's do it. Let's
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 2: we need something to get us to go viral or
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: something get us to explode. I don't know. Maybe it's
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 2: just the content is too niche or something, or I
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: go too long. I don't know. We're on Audio, Apple, Spotify, freaker.
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 2: Listen there that helps me out too, covered in you
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 2: because my ukulelely cover channel on YouTube. You can check
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 2: that out page round dot com, sash and learn to
• 1:34:07
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• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: you know, anything helps try to fund me since basically,
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 2: like all the content and whatever is basically the only way,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: the only way that I get income for the moment.
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 2: So there is that which is not good. Although you know,
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: I do have a lot of savings from working in
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: software for so long, so I'm not dead yet. I'm
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: not broke yet. Although you know, if I push this
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: thing and really just fuck it and just go full
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: professional betting, maybe I should. Man, I'm just worried that
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 2: there's nothing to really back it, but you know, maybe
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 2: I should do it because I know how to do it,
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: and you bankroll it and you base your bet amount
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: off of how much is in your bank roll, so
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 2: you know, doing it that way, the percentages work out
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: such that you can never really lose all of it,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: you know what I mean, because if you're if you
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: lost some, then you're bet size is gonna be lower,
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: and if you've won something, your bet size is gonna
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: be bigger. You know, I should do another betting one
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 2: on one show maybe and talk about I didn't really
• 1:35:10
  Speaker 2: fully talk about the bank roll management and the other
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 2: one that I did. I don't know. I'll consider it
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: for Dirty Sock, all right, and for the newcomers. What
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 2: else we got Loser casts every Tuesday and New York
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 2: Giants g Spot podcasts. I'm ready for football, man, let's
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: do it. That's gonna do it, Dirty Sock. I saw
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: you said you liked the new outro. Hell yeah, have
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 2: a good Saturday, everybody. There is one already. You can
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 2: go watch it. It's one of my more watched videos
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: on here. But maybe I'll do another one because I mean,
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. It's kind of evergreen it. Maybe i'd
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: be able to do it in a more structured way.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Happy Saturday, everyone, peace.
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 3: If the docs dots talking, hand me the phone, it's somebody,
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 3: and so let somebody know you do.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: Not have to.
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 3: Lose this round Longe. Hold on, hold on nothing nice
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 3: not now, hold on, hold on. Let me pull you
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 3: out that bad luck by time, but it don't get
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: the crown. Hold on, hold on, stay with me, now,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: hold on, hold on, You're still here,