Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Stocks Flip as Israel JUST attacked Iran... What Happens Now? + Stock Market News 19 April 2024

Transcript

Stocks Flip as Israel JUST attacked Iran... What Happens Now? + Stock Market News 19 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here, and Israel attacked Iran the exact thing that we didn't want to happen and let me walk you through.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Let me explain what that means, what actually happened today and what's about to happen, and how you can protect your portfolio and actually profit from this which is a weird thing with war, isn't it?
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: But there is actually a playbook for this, and I'm going to do one better.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: A lot of people want to learn how to make money, and I run a live trading session for that on Tuesday evening, but I actually think the most important thing to start with is to learn to protect your money.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to add to that live trading training at the end a session on how to hedge, so I will teach you, completely for free, how to hedge your portfolio.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So, from the next disaster that's inevitably going to happen, you will be protected, and that's what I want to do for you.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So go and hop over to felixfriendsorg slash webinar and sign up.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a seat for Tuesday and I'm somewhere rather spectacular, but I'll tell you a little bit more about that in a moment.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: Let me walk you through what actually happened today.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So there were huge explosions today, heard at Natanz, which is where the nuclear power plants are of Iran and also near Isfahan, which is where their nuclear tech center is, and that was basically confirmed by Iran's military, and they're saying that the air base was attacked, not the nuclear sites.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Now, what happened then later is we also heard that there were explosions in Iraq at the same time and in Syria.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: The explosion in Iraq was a building in Baghdad where apparently a meeting was taking place with Iran-backed militias and the Revolutionary Guard of Iran.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: So obviously a targeted assassination, as that word is hideous and weird, because an assassination, well, never mind, let's not go down that philosophical, philosophical route here.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Um, now what's happened since is that I've had a very glorious day here on this beautiful island, and iran has denied that there were attacks.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So they changed their tune after confirming it and just said no, no, no, that never happened.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Magic.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: There were some quadcopters, whatever those things are who tried to attack us.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: We shot them down.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: That's what explains the explosion.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Nothing actually happened, nothing was hit is actually very, very, very good why?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Because it means that they don't have to retaliate quite as harshly as they otherwise would have to, because we had the Revolutionary Guard telling us just yesterday that an attack on their nuclear sites would mean Iran would build the bomb, like they're not already doing that anyway, but anyway.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So Asian markets tanked, futures took a real nosedive.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: The S&P went down, gold went up, oil went up, hitting $90 at one point, and wars are historic opportunities, as weird as that sounds.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: If you'd bought the war dip for every war Iran, korea, iraq, iraq, again every single war out there that the US was somehow involved in, you would have made a lot of money.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So is it time to buy the freaking dip?
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: Well, let's look at a few other things here.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: First of all, what's the response going to be?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And hopefully, isn't it beautiful here?
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, it really is stunning, isn't it?
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: You can't be too upset about the world when you're on this beach on your own Actually, not on your own.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Got some friends down there and a dog, actually, who's very sweet.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: But Iran is going to have to retaliate.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Because otherwise they lose face, and that's a big thing in a lot of cultures Asian cultures, middle Eastern cultures and they're basically going to have to do something, which means there'll be some tit for tat again from Israel.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Now the hope is that they'll do something smaller, maybe getting Hezbollah to bomb something, or you know, they'll blow something up that is not massively huge.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: My concern was that if Iran had said, yes, they've hit us hard, then rather than sending 300 drones, they'd have to send a thousand drones, and then the whole thing would escalate into full-blown war Because they are denying the attack.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: The markets have calmed down somewhat, so the dip buyers have already been out there in full force, and that's a good thing.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So my feeling on this is that this isn't escalating right now into something big, but it doesn't take a lot.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It really doesn't take a lot.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: It's an absolute nightmare of a tinderpot that we don't really want to be part of, but that's where we are right now geopolitically.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So what does it mean?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Well, is there other opportunities out there?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Well, look at netflix right reported staggering earnings, massive, massive growth, 16 subscriber growth, massive free cash flow.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: But they said the words we will no longer tell you what our subscriber numbers will be from 2025 onwards.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And the market goes.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: That means you've plateaued, that means growth is a thing of the past and the market is completely freaking out, as I'm getting bitten here on this lovely beach.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: More DET is required, apparently, so let me give you some real information here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: The CTAs, the algo funds, are going to sell at certain levels, and part of the reason the market is so volatile right now is also that we are in that blackout period, right.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So during earnings companies can't buy their own shares, and that eases from May onwards.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: So from May onwards companies can buy their own shares again.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So the world would be a better place.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: But write these numbers down, the sell triggers.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: When you dip below it, more and more and more gets sold.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: And there are.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: For the S&P 500 index, there are 5,031, 4,980, 4,962, 4,950, 4,937.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: So at 4,937, some serious selling happens.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: But at each of those levels the computers sell and that's not a good thing.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So be wary of that.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Be aware of that.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: Now, on top of this Fed's Bostic, the man who really likes to be in the news that's what I always feel about that chap.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: He said it's going to be a slow and bumpy path to two percent inflation and rates can be higher until unemployment actually drops, and that's basically cabling to biden.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That we know what your bls labor department is up to.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: The L is superfluous in that acronym, by the way.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: And unless you stop manipulating the jobs data, we're not going to cut rates.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: That's sort of what he's essentially saying, and I get it.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I get it, but it just means higher for longer, possibly till way beyond the summer.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe we're not going to get a rate cut till November or December and that's a bit of a kick in the teeth of the market, especially the growth stocks.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So you need patience and you always need that buffer where you're thinking, okay, I can be in this trade or in this position for a bit longer, because unexpected stuff happens.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Money is made in stocks in the long run, in trades in the short term, typically.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: So come and learn with me seriously, two things.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: One, I'll give you my entire trading protocol, the whole shebang, for free on Tuesday evening felixfriendsorg slash webinar, and I will also throw in at the end of that webinar an entire lesson on how you hedge and how you protect your portfolio.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So when things like that today happen, you wake up and you go.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I'm on a beautiful beach, on a beautiful little island here in the philippines, which is absolutely glorious and and I'm having a good time, and I know my money is fine.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I know my portfolio is fine because I bought insurance and I would recommend you do that because it makes you sleep better at night and it just protects you, right?
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: You know you probably have car insurance, right?
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So why not have a portfolio insurance?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: So come and join me, my friends, and we're about to see the beautiful sunset here on this lovely little island.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: We actually woke up for sunrise today some ungodly hour before 5 am, but it was really worth it.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: It really was, because the light is just amazing and beaches are empty Actually, the beaches are pretty much empty anyway.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: We're somewhere fairly remote.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So come and join me in a place when you can hop over to these little islands Whenever you feel like it and just enjoy yourself.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: And all that's missing here really is is winston, uh, who is who's well pampered and looked after at home, and we have a lovely little dog here of a friend of ours who's been following us around all day.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: So, um, it's been an absolute pleasure.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Look, guys.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So don't freak out about the war.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: There is always going to be some drama, some nonsense.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Don't watch the war.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: There is really only one thing you can do for your mindset, and that is to turn off the bad news and focus on the facts.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: I've just given you the facts.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I honestly don't think you need to know much more details about what hit where and when and so on.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: It's just going to make you stressed and anxious and you want to remove those things from your life so you can make better decisions.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: I hope to see you on the next one.