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Inside The Data: Did The Eagles Make The Right Fourth-Down Call Vs. Packers? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data on Inside the Birds.
0:13
Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, and of course we got the man
0:15
Speaker 1: who does all the data and analytics, Sam Finkel, and
0:19
Speaker 1: we're gonna we're not reversing course, we're pivoting. We're adding
0:22
Speaker 1: a little we're massaging a little bit of what we
0:25
Speaker 1: normally do here on Inside the Data. We of course
0:27
Speaker 1: are gonna recap the Eagles performance from an analytics standpoint
0:31
Speaker 1: against the Packers, but we're also going to go deep
0:34
Speaker 1: inside third down conversion, which has been an issue for
0:36
Speaker 1: the Eagles offensively all year long, and then we'll get
0:40
Speaker 1: into some of the decision making by the coaching staff
0:44
Speaker 1: from an analytics standpoint. So, Sam, it was a very
0:47
Speaker 1: obviously I knew this was gonna happen. I tried to
0:50
Speaker 1: address this with Adam in the post game. In the
0:52
Speaker 1: postgame show, I really beat the drum that it's not
0:56
Speaker 1: easy to go into Lambeau. That's a good defense against
1:01
Speaker 1: a team as good as the Packers, even though they're
1:03
Speaker 1: struggling now, is still good. But I sensed that this
1:06
Speaker 1: week was going to be more what's wrong with the
1:09
Speaker 1: team then what's right with the team, And I think
1:11
Speaker 1: some of that is fair. Obviously, the aj Brown situation
1:14
Speaker 1: is also added to the whole. It feels like a
1:17
Speaker 1: loss after a win situation. But I want to ask
1:19
Speaker 1: you when you were putting this together, what did you
1:23
Speaker 1: seek to find out? Because it was such an odd game, right,
1:25
Speaker 1: especially offensively, What did you seek to find out from
1:28
Speaker 1: an analytics standpoint?
1:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean what I was trying to find out
1:32
Speaker 2: first off, was why the defense was so successful, And
1:37
Speaker 2: I honestly didn't really look too much into the offense
1:41
Speaker 2: because I felt that what was more interesting and compelling
1:48
Speaker 2: of this story is some of the decision making that
1:50
Speaker 2: the coaching staff met, that they attempted and that they
1:55
Speaker 2: actually did, so I felt like that was what was
1:59
Speaker 2: interesting this game. I don't think this offense is going
2:04
Speaker 2: to have that That game offensively doesn't happen against every team.
2:09
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously the Packers have an incredible defense. I
2:13
Speaker 2: think that's you have to say that, you have to
2:15
Speaker 2: acknowledge that. But I think what's interesting is the decision
2:19
Speaker 2: making by the coaching staff and just the rationale behind it.
2:23
Speaker 2: So I think that's really what the objective of this analysis,
2:27
Speaker 2: and this inside the data is good. I liked.
2:30
Speaker 1: I liked taking different viewpoints. I mean, we could sit
2:33
Speaker 1: there and go through all of the offense for half
2:35
Speaker 1: the show and showed like, not that we're not going
2:38
Speaker 1: to do it, but I like go show like negative EPA, negative, this,
2:41
Speaker 1: negative that, and everybody's gonna say, yeah, I watched the game,
2:44
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying. Like, I know, I know
2:46
Speaker 1: they didn't move the ball very well, but that's good.
2:49
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm excited to go through that those decision
2:51
Speaker 1: making calls with you. And then also some of the
2:54
Speaker 1: third down data that we've kind of harped on all
2:57
Speaker 1: year long, but we keep adding to it and finding
2:59
Speaker 1: new and out is on it.
3:00
Speaker 2: And I think we've been early on that. Oh yeah,
3:03
Speaker 2: very proud of that we found that, and it's became
3:06
Speaker 2: a very you know, talked about all over the place.
3:09
Speaker 2: But I do think we were pretty early on that.
3:11
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, for the crowd of this is how
3:14
Speaker 1: they won last year, they're going to win a super
3:16
Speaker 1: Bowl anyway, So they can win a super Bowl anyway.
3:18
Speaker 1: I get it. But there's some really damning and incriminating
3:21
Speaker 1: third down offensive data that does not compare or is
3:26
Speaker 1: not consistent with last year's offense, which at times was
3:29
Speaker 1: very good on third and if not, they were so
3:31
Speaker 1: great on fourth. But the Eagles aren't aren't using fourth
3:34
Speaker 1: down as much this year as last year. They're converting,
3:37
Speaker 1: I'm sure at a very high rate, but they're not
3:39
Speaker 1: constantly in fourth and short like they were because they
3:42
Speaker 1: are constantly in third and unmanageable, so it's been harder
3:45
Speaker 1: for them to set up fourth and manageable.
3:48
Speaker 2: And something interesting that if I have time, I'd like
3:52
Speaker 2: to look into between this year and last year is
3:54
Speaker 2: I just wonder if defenses are playing the Eagles differently
3:57
Speaker 2: because they don't want them to get into these third
4:00
Speaker 2: and short, third and manageable. I'm not one hundred percent
4:03
Speaker 2: sure on that, because that would involve a lot of
4:05
Speaker 2: study and analysis, but I almost wonder if that is
4:09
Speaker 2: part of it. And I'm sure it is to some extent.
4:11
Speaker 1: Right, I Mean, the one thing we did sort of
4:14
Speaker 1: talk about earlier in the year was the way defenses
4:16
Speaker 1: were blitzing the offense in the first half a lot
4:20
Speaker 1: and then completely changing script in the second half, and
4:23
Speaker 1: you saw the Eagles having real struggle to adjust to
4:26
Speaker 1: a complete change in philosophy. I didn't see that as
4:29
Speaker 1: much with the Packers, but we've seen it enough throughout
4:32
Speaker 1: the year to know that, you know, there's things going
4:35
Speaker 1: on that defenses are trying to do. They even talked
4:37
Speaker 1: about that. Kevin Patullo and some of the offensive players
4:40
Speaker 1: talked about the extreme number of unscouted looks that they've
4:43
Speaker 1: been seeing this year. But that's also part of being
4:46
Speaker 1: a Super Bowl champion that you're always going to have
4:48
Speaker 1: to see that new adjust.
4:49
Speaker 2: No, absolutely, and I agree, And I do think that
4:52
Speaker 2: the blitz and changing it up has, like you said,
4:56
Speaker 2: caused some issues for the Eagles, and it's just interesting
5:01
Speaker 2: to see, like what this this? Okay again, I want
5:05
Speaker 2: to say regression because it is to an extent, but
5:08
Speaker 2: I mean their record still reflects that they're a good
5:11
Speaker 2: team and they can find ways to win. So I
5:13
Speaker 2: don't I don't think we ever want to take away
5:16
Speaker 2: when we talk about what is wrong with his Eagles team, right,
5:20
Speaker 2: I think we don't do our job unless we do
5:22
Speaker 2: talk about what could give you better?
5:25
Speaker 1: Right? I agree, Sam, And I know you know people
5:28
Speaker 1: reach out to you on different platforms, and you know
5:31
Speaker 1: you've probably detected now that there is a certain segment
5:35
Speaker 1: and I don't know how big it is, right. Social
5:37
Speaker 1: media is a terrible way to figure out if it
5:40
Speaker 1: represents the majority of minority opinion. But there is a
5:42
Speaker 1: certain segment of a base that wants to be like
5:48
Speaker 1: blissfully ignorant or doesn't want you to. They don't want
5:51
Speaker 1: you to. They don't want you to tell them it's
5:52
Speaker 1: raining just because it's very cloudy, you know what I'm saying.
5:55
Speaker 1: But so they'll say what doesn't matter, doesn't matter, seven
5:59
Speaker 1: to two, seven to two. But we have two years
6:01
Speaker 1: ago evidence of a team being ten and one, but
6:05
Speaker 1: cracks in the foundation that led to a complete disruption, right,
6:10
Speaker 1: And I think some people are viewing this Lions game
6:14
Speaker 1: as a almost like a forty nine Ers type game
6:18
Speaker 1: from a couple of years ago, where if things go
6:19
Speaker 1: south and they get their asses kicked like that could
6:22
Speaker 1: be the start of an unraveling. I'm not there yet.
6:25
Speaker 1: I don't think you. I don't know who is. I
6:27
Speaker 1: agree it's an interesting test coming up. But the bottom
6:29
Speaker 1: line is, to your point, you have to be able
6:31
Speaker 1: to point out things that are not right. The better
6:34
Speaker 1: people in this business can tell you when things aren't
6:37
Speaker 1: right even though they look right, and vice versa and
6:40
Speaker 1: just a quick anecdote. I remember writing a story after
6:44
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty season, the terrible season. You know, they
6:47
Speaker 1: went awry with Carson Wentz, and what I wrote about
6:51
Speaker 1: it at the end of the season was as bad
6:53
Speaker 1: as everything looked. If you're a firm believer that good
6:57
Speaker 1: teams are built from the trenches out, and you look
7:00
Speaker 1: at the Eagles, with or without Carson Wentz, whatever happens,
7:04
Speaker 1: you know they still have a very good offensive libe
7:06
Speaker 1: at the time, this don Lane right, they still had Brooks,
7:09
Speaker 1: they still had Jason Kelce. I forget who's sayam Alu.
7:13
Speaker 1: I believe was on the team right. And on defense
7:15
Speaker 1: they had Fletcher Cox, they had Brandon Graham. They just
7:17
Speaker 1: had an injury plague gear and everything went wrong for
7:20
Speaker 1: the quarterback, and then he averaged his own issues. So
7:22
Speaker 1: I said this, you're not as far from being back
7:25
Speaker 1: to a good That was the point of the column.
7:27
Speaker 1: You're not as far as you think from being a
7:29
Speaker 1: good team. Again and again, like the reaction I got
7:32
Speaker 1: from people who said I carry water for the organization,
7:35
Speaker 1: I'm overly You always get the extreme reaction, But you know,
7:39
Speaker 1: if you're good at your job, you know what's true, right.
7:42
Speaker 1: You know when something looks bad but it is better.
7:45
Speaker 1: You know when something's good but act or looks good
7:48
Speaker 1: but might not be. And I don't know where I
7:50
Speaker 1: am yet with this Eagles team. I'm not trying to
7:52
Speaker 1: lead anybody down a path, but I think some of
7:54
Speaker 1: the analytics that will go through today at least shine
7:58
Speaker 1: a light on whether you should be concer earned about
8:00
Speaker 1: some areas that go beyond one or two bad games
8:03
Speaker 1: or weeks.
8:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely good, Cool.
8:06
Speaker 1: Thanks for letting me share that. Hey, it's Jeff Mosher.
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10:49
Speaker 1: These are the basic stats that we always get into
10:52
Speaker 1: after the game. It's sure, I mean this. This tells
10:55
Speaker 1: a story of a great defensive effort by the Eagles.
10:57
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at it and just see all
10:58
Speaker 1: the green and think, oh, Eagles were great. But obviously,
11:00
Speaker 1: I think most of these stats reveal how well they
11:03
Speaker 1: played defensively.
11:05
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely agree, And listen, there's this is one
11:10
Speaker 2: of the times where we see a lot more green,
11:12
Speaker 2: and I don't think the score really reflects how much
11:15
Speaker 2: more green the Eagles have relative to the Packers. Obviously, right,
11:20
Speaker 2: I mean you look at it. They won the time
11:23
Speaker 2: of possession, they won the average starting field position, they
11:26
Speaker 2: won the yards per play, they won the yards.
11:29
Speaker 1: Win on field position twenty nine to twenty eight point eight.
11:32
Speaker 2: So here's the thing with the field position. You take
11:35
Speaker 2: away that Josh Jacob's fumble and they lose it horribly.
11:39
Speaker 1: That's a great point. So that's how that goes back
11:41
Speaker 1: to how often we talk about how important turnovers are.
11:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, it truly is, because I mean I think I
11:47
Speaker 2: was doing the average and you take that out of it,
11:50
Speaker 2: and they were they were like five or six yards
11:53
Speaker 2: like below. So look, that does really matter.
11:57
Speaker 1: I know when you were color coding this, you probably
11:59
Speaker 1: had some internal battle. Do I really give them green
12:01
Speaker 1: when it's twenty nine verse twenty eight point eight? If
12:03
Speaker 1: I round up.
12:04
Speaker 2: It's the same, you know, I did. But at the
12:07
Speaker 2: same time, I mean, look that they won. At the
12:10
Speaker 2: end of the day, they won, so it's worth it.
12:13
Speaker 2: I was a little surprised to see the penalty numbers
12:16
Speaker 2: because it didn't feel like they lost the penalty battle.
12:21
Speaker 2: And again I've never highlighted the penalty battle because it's
12:25
Speaker 2: all subjective. Like some of the times the other teams
12:28
Speaker 2: have had more penalties but less yards, so I was
12:31
Speaker 2: just I never really highlight it. But in this case
12:34
Speaker 2: they had three more penalties and forty one more yards.
12:38
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I think they have more false starts than
12:40
Speaker 1: the Packers. That basically my lot. I had two on
12:42
Speaker 1: his own and I think they're lane had one, So
12:46
Speaker 1: I think that yeah.
12:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, there are some basic stats.
12:50
Speaker 1: I mean, the one that really jumps out is yards
12:52
Speaker 1: for pass that Eagles at seven, which is it's a
12:55
Speaker 1: pretty decent number even in a game we only score
12:57
Speaker 1: ten points. But that sort of goes to like your
13:00
Speaker 1: their yards per play is four point nine yards for
13:02
Speaker 1: passes seven. They were once again a shot play offense.
13:05
Speaker 1: They got the forty one yard screen not screen dump
13:08
Speaker 1: off to Berkley. They got the thirty six yard touchdown.
13:11
Speaker 1: They got the sixteen yard pass on third and twelve
13:14
Speaker 1: to DeVante Smith, and that was the extent of their
13:17
Speaker 1: big place. Oh well, they also had a I think
13:19
Speaker 1: a twenty yard or down the scene to got it
13:22
Speaker 1: that four four plays that factor heavily into that mark,
13:26
Speaker 1: and then the Packers yards per play and yards for
13:29
Speaker 1: pass were the same thing. I mean, they just could
13:31
Speaker 1: not move the ball effectively at all.
13:33
Speaker 2: But and to be honest with you, I think this
13:35
Speaker 2: game changes if the Packers receivers are healthy.
13:40
Speaker 1: Yes, there were also some pretty bad drops, right, Dobbs
13:43
Speaker 1: dropped two that were bad, and then bow Milton who yeah,
13:47
Speaker 1: I mean the guy was playing corner and then they
13:48
Speaker 1: moved back to safety he drop one. But yeah, I
13:51
Speaker 1: agree with you. I think if if you have Golden,
13:53
Speaker 1: if you have certainly if you have Jaden Reid, you
13:56
Speaker 1: know they're really counting on those guys to come back
13:58
Speaker 1: and help their offense.
14:00
Speaker 2: If the Eagles play the Packers in the playoffs, it
14:03
Speaker 2: will be it will one hundred percent be a different game.
14:05
Speaker 1: What a thousand, I agree totally.
14:08
Speaker 2: But I also to that same effect, I think the
14:11
Speaker 2: offense probably would play very differently. The Eagles offense.
14:15
Speaker 1: I would agree with you on that one as well.
14:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, but again, different game, that's right.
14:21
Speaker 1: I mean, the first game in Brazil last year was
14:23
Speaker 1: a higher scoring, more offensive game, and then the NFC
14:27
Speaker 1: Wildcard game was like a lower so it's like twenty
14:29
Speaker 1: two to ten. It was a completely different game.
14:32
Speaker 2: But I will say there's only one team that really
14:35
Speaker 2: scares me in the playoffs. I know we're really early
14:37
Speaker 2: for it, but there's only one team that really scares me.
14:40
Speaker 1: Just one? All right? Do tell is it? Well? Can
14:42
Speaker 1: I try to guess it? Yep, Seahawks.
14:45
Speaker 2: It's not the Seahawks. I do think the Eagles can
14:47
Speaker 2: handle them pretty well.
14:49
Speaker 1: Wow, only because their their play action game is so
14:52
Speaker 1: good that it kind of negates pressure, which is what
14:54
Speaker 1: the Eagles are, and because their defense is really good.
14:58
Speaker 1: I would for some reason, I'm thinking, not thinking the Rams,
15:00
Speaker 1: even though okay, that would have been my second guest.
15:03
Speaker 2: It's they that it will never be the same as
15:08
Speaker 2: what happened when they already played them. Like like I
15:10
Speaker 2: said when we talked about that one, I mean that
15:12
Speaker 2: you don't win games like that normally.
15:14
Speaker 1: That's a great point. I mean, to your point, Sam,
15:17
Speaker 1: the last two times they played the Rams. You know,
15:19
Speaker 1: Stafford was thirteen yards away in a snowstorm. They escaped
15:24
Speaker 1: and then of course the field will block they escaped.
15:26
Speaker 1: So there's only so many times you can live on
15:28
Speaker 1: the edge against a really good team, right.
15:31
Speaker 2: Yeah, And Sean McVay is just a schematic genius and
15:35
Speaker 2: what he's done this year in thirteen personnel. Look, hopefully
15:39
Speaker 2: I'll get to talk about it, because it's very interesting
15:43
Speaker 2: and you got to beat the best to be the best.
15:45
Speaker 2: But I would also be very happy if we never
15:48
Speaker 2: talk about the rams again this year.
15:50
Speaker 1: By the way, not only the use of thirteen personnel,
15:54
Speaker 1: but they're using full all four tight ends interchangeably in
15:58
Speaker 1: that thirteen How many teams have four tight ends that
16:01
Speaker 1: are actively involved in a game plan every like for
16:05
Speaker 1: many consecutive weeks.
16:06
Speaker 2: That's impressive, Yeah, it really is.
16:09
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our favorite topic, third down stats.
16:12
Speaker 1: Now you've put a table here, I'll let you explain.
16:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, this is the same table we've
16:18
Speaker 2: had for the past. What we've done this for like
16:21
Speaker 2: eight seven weeks at this point. Yeah, when we first
16:24
Speaker 2: realized that those they were those issues, that's kind of
16:28
Speaker 2: where we were at and basically what is interesting is
16:34
Speaker 2: the Eagles actually were better at third down this week
16:39
Speaker 2: as opposed to different weeks, and their opponents were actually worse.
16:43
Speaker 2: So the stats you see are better than what they
16:45
Speaker 2: were last time we looked at this. If you remember,
16:48
Speaker 2: we did not look at this for the Giants game
16:50
Speaker 2: because we did a different It was over the week
16:54
Speaker 2: look back to about different things, and honestly, I thought
16:57
Speaker 2: would be more interesting to take a different approach. But
16:59
Speaker 2: we're back. It's updated since that, including the Giants game
17:02
Speaker 2: as well. And so the first chart just shows you know,
17:07
Speaker 2: their relative third down statistics and then if you look
17:11
Speaker 2: at the second chart, that one is based on where
17:14
Speaker 2: it is on the field. And again they you know,
17:20
Speaker 2: changed a little bit, but nothing too crazy. I mean
17:23
Speaker 2: they're third and short. They didn't have that many opportunities,
17:28
Speaker 2: still have not had that many opportunities. It's been disproportionately
17:31
Speaker 2: third and long and that has continued, and their opponents
17:36
Speaker 2: are significantly putting themselves in better positions on third downs.
17:41
Speaker 2: That's really the key takeaway. We can look at the
17:44
Speaker 2: numbers all we want, but it's been telling the same story.
17:48
Speaker 2: So to not be too repetitive. You could just look
17:50
Speaker 2: at the chart right here and you can see, you know,
17:53
Speaker 2: they are more effective than their opponents on third and
17:56
Speaker 2: short because they have a play that is pretty much
17:59
Speaker 2: unstoppable third and short. But the problem is their opponents
18:02
Speaker 2: are getting there three times more.
18:04
Speaker 1: Yep, that's right. I want to go back to Eagles
18:08
Speaker 1: third down conversion sets from this game. I guess the
18:10
Speaker 1: Packers and why it's somewhat misleading. Well it's not misleading,
18:14
Speaker 1: they did that, but why it sort of feels like
18:16
Speaker 1: one step forward, two steps back. Okay, So the Eagles
18:19
Speaker 1: were seven of sixteen. For those listening you can't see
18:21
Speaker 1: the charts on third down against the Packers. That's forty
18:24
Speaker 1: four percent. That's higher than their season average of thirty
18:27
Speaker 1: five percent, which is very bad, and even higher than
18:30
Speaker 1: last year's average of forty two percent, which was pretty good.
18:33
Speaker 1: I don't remember where the would rank clash year. It
18:35
Speaker 1: wasn't like, not top five, I don't think, but it
18:36
Speaker 1: was pretty good.
18:37
Speaker 2: No, it was.
18:39
Speaker 1: But so they were seven of sixteen. Now they converted
18:44
Speaker 1: their first three third downs. On that second drive, the
18:48
Speaker 1: drive that they were marching the ball really well, right
18:51
Speaker 1: and then hurts fumbled, so they were finally converting third down,
18:55
Speaker 1: and I do you know, the first fifteen plays. To me,
18:58
Speaker 1: it's like how you settle into a game. It's great
19:00
Speaker 1: because the Eagles have had a couple of games this
19:01
Speaker 1: year where they've started off really good, you know, first
19:04
Speaker 1: fifteen plays awesome, and then like reverted into a funk.
19:07
Speaker 1: But so if you take the fact that there were
19:09
Speaker 1: three for three and should have been four for four
19:12
Speaker 1: because Hertz ran for the first down before fumbling, right,
19:15
Speaker 1: and then say they're seven of sixteen, well that means
19:18
Speaker 1: that they were four of thirteen the rest of the game,
19:23
Speaker 1: which you know, I don't want to say that the
19:25
Speaker 1: first three don't count. They certainly count. That helps, but
19:28
Speaker 1: they got no points out of it, and then for
19:30
Speaker 1: the rest of the game they were back into a
19:32
Speaker 1: thirty three thirty four percent conversion rate. So I don't
19:36
Speaker 1: want to call it misleading because the numbers are what
19:38
Speaker 1: they are. They converted the first three, but it didn't
19:41
Speaker 1: help them because they turned the ball over the one
19:44
Speaker 1: drive where they were really good at converting third down.
19:47
Speaker 2: No, I think that's a really important stat and I
19:48
Speaker 2: appreciate you bringing up it. Felt and again I know,
19:52
Speaker 2: we really like to stay in an analytic lens, but
19:55
Speaker 2: I can't help, but you know, interject my opinions sometimes. Sure,
19:59
Speaker 2: And it just felt that after that fumble, Hurts played
20:02
Speaker 2: a little bit differently, and Tula called the plays differently.
20:06
Speaker 2: It just it felt like a shift. And I don't
20:08
Speaker 2: think there needed to be a shift.
20:10
Speaker 1: I agree with you and Adam and I talked about this,
20:13
Speaker 1: and even Greg Cosel, like all of us each time,
20:16
Speaker 1: have been sort of over the last few years, you know,
20:18
Speaker 1: by a segment of the fan base think that we're
20:20
Speaker 1: overly critical of Jalen Hurts or that we're a hater.
20:24
Speaker 1: I mean there's an extreme we hate jail On Hurt,
20:26
Speaker 1: which is not true. We've actually, I have felt, and
20:28
Speaker 1: I'll say it here on this show. I have felt
20:30
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts has actually played quarterback the passing part of
20:33
Speaker 1: the position better this year and has made more tight
20:36
Speaker 1: window throws this year. And maybe we'll do a look
20:38
Speaker 1: back on that at some point, right, I mean, going
20:41
Speaker 1: back to that game where we threw that route to
20:44
Speaker 1: aj Brown between two I think it was the Vikings
20:46
Speaker 1: game right where it was a beautiful throw. We have
20:48
Speaker 1: seen that and so I felt that they took the
20:50
Speaker 1: ball out of Jalen Hurts's hands in this game. And
20:53
Speaker 1: sometimes when you say, well, they're clearly hiding the quarterback,
20:56
Speaker 1: it makes you think that there you agree with the decision.
20:59
Speaker 1: I did not. I thought they did play hide the quarterback,
21:01
Speaker 1: but didn't need to play hide the quarterback. But that
21:05
Speaker 1: was their decision they did. It's one thing if if
21:07
Speaker 1: he's off to a rough start and then you're like,
21:08
Speaker 1: all right, we got a downshift. Right, they were off
21:11
Speaker 1: to a good start passing the ball, and they downshifted
21:14
Speaker 1: anyway after the fumble or for whatever reason, And I
21:17
Speaker 1: just thought that that was a mistake.
21:20
Speaker 2: Just so you know, as we were talking this, you're right,
21:23
Speaker 2: Actually your intuition as usual is right. Hurts is at
21:28
Speaker 2: sixteen point six percent tight window as opposed to sixteen
21:32
Speaker 2: point three percent last year.
21:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it's up a little bit. I mean, that's
21:35
Speaker 1: probably not huge, but like to the naked eye, he
21:38
Speaker 1: certainly made more passes that you and I and other
21:40
Speaker 1: shows talking about, like whoa, he didn't he planted his
21:43
Speaker 1: foot and threw that ball in a way that like
21:45
Speaker 1: he doesn't always do or consistently do as much. So
21:50
Speaker 1: you know, it was a strange time, especially coming out
21:52
Speaker 1: of buy for them to be like, let's pump the
21:54
Speaker 1: brakes on that, you know.
21:55
Speaker 2: No doubt. But that's a good insight by you, just
21:58
Speaker 2: just you can tell Niceah.
22:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted to give the guy some credit. I
22:03
Speaker 1: thought he deserved it, no doubt. All right, So the
22:07
Speaker 1: situational third down stat now, this is what you were
22:10
Speaker 1: appointing to the look at where they are on the field,
22:13
Speaker 1: and man, they continue to have more third and longs
22:17
Speaker 1: than their opponent this year.
22:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they really do.
22:22
Speaker 1: Uh no, that's not correct. I'm sorry. The third the
22:24
Speaker 1: opponents are at thirty percent, they're at twenty one percent.
22:27
Speaker 1: But I get what do we say if you add
22:29
Speaker 1: their third and medium and add their third and long's,
22:32
Speaker 1: it's quite a bit.
22:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's it's kind of ridiculous when you look
22:36
Speaker 2: at it.
22:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, opponent sixteen thirty Wow, it's amazing how third and
22:41
Speaker 1: mid there? Boy, what fifteen of thirty three on third
22:45
Speaker 1: and medium for them is forty five percent. For their opponent,
22:47
Speaker 1: thirteen of thirty three is thirty nine. That's a staggering
22:51
Speaker 1: drop for just two different like for like minus two
22:53
Speaker 1: on the conversion right there, right.
22:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it is. And as you can see, like,
22:58
Speaker 2: actually these numbers are kind of normalized a little bit.
23:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really more that we discussed that they are
23:04
Speaker 1: in third and long more than they are in third
23:07
Speaker 1: and short and third and medium combined, and that continues
23:10
Speaker 1: to be the case, and that that's the most damning
23:13
Speaker 1: stat of it all.
23:14
Speaker 2: But then you look at the opponent, I mean, it's
23:16
Speaker 2: not the case, it's exact, so it's it is interesting. Yeah,
23:20
Speaker 2: and then we got the visual breakdown in the table below.
23:24
Speaker 1: I love this little uh pie chart. I always like
23:26
Speaker 1: pie charts personne Yeah, the color code and everything, I
23:30
Speaker 1: like it.
23:31
Speaker 2: But and that those charts are updated so you can see. Honestly,
23:35
Speaker 2: they're looking very similar their opponents are in terms of
23:41
Speaker 2: you know, third and long. But you look at it,
23:43
Speaker 2: there's third and short for the opponents is a lot better,
23:47
Speaker 2: Like it's a lot worse this year, so that they're
23:49
Speaker 2: allowing more third and short opportunities for their opponents, which.
23:52
Speaker 1: Are easily convertible. Yeah, especially when you're playing good teams.
23:55
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is a problem. And and like we're we are,
23:59
Speaker 2: you know, talking up the defense quite a bit and
24:01
Speaker 2: we will talk up the defense quite a bit, but
24:03
Speaker 2: like that's not sustainable. That's a problem. That's also a problem.
24:07
Speaker 1: Yep, although it did look to your point, right, like
24:10
Speaker 1: with the addition of Jill and Phillips that that part
24:13
Speaker 1: of it got better. Because I don't know if we're
24:15
Speaker 1: gonna get into this that much. I didn't, I don't remember,
24:18
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, but like Vic had, I think his lowest
24:21
Speaker 1: or second lowest Plitz total, Oh, we're getting okay, we'll
24:24
Speaker 1: go yeah, we'll get into that, all right. So I
24:28
Speaker 1: still think it's you know, the big takeaway here is
24:30
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five they're in third and long on
24:32
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent other snaps compared to their opponent on
24:35
Speaker 1: forty five point four. So that's also not great. It's
24:39
Speaker 1: not great, not great at all. All right, all right,
24:43
Speaker 1: So you and I stumbled across this and thought it
24:45
Speaker 1: was really important to highlight. It goes back to the
24:49
Speaker 1: third down conversation and then also the conversation about are
24:54
Speaker 1: you allowed to be concerned about something even though the
24:56
Speaker 1: team is seven to two, right? And is it fair
24:58
Speaker 1: to talk about it? So Dennis Salesman is a guy
25:03
Speaker 1: I know, he works for a couple of different outlets.
25:04
Speaker 1: He's really into analytics. He's you know, covers the Eagles.
25:08
Speaker 1: He puts together, Yeah, he puts together great charts line
25:12
Speaker 1: graft type charts that measure the Eagles statistically. And we
25:17
Speaker 1: came across this on on X and again he's at
25:20
Speaker 1: Dennis d e n I z Selman se l M
25:24
Speaker 1: A N thirty three And the first thing he talked
25:27
Speaker 1: about is the rate of three and outs that the
25:29
Speaker 1: Eagles have, which I believe they still lead the NFL
25:31
Speaker 1: in I believe so yeah, yeah, that's what it says here.
25:35
Speaker 1: Eagles still going three and out more often than any
25:38
Speaker 1: offense in the NFL since twenty fourteen. So we're talking
25:41
Speaker 1: about over a decade, all right, This, this twenty twenty
25:45
Speaker 1: five Eagles team, right has gone three and out more
25:48
Speaker 1: than any team since twenty and fourteen. And they're getting
25:51
Speaker 1: away with it, is what Dennis says, because they have
25:53
Speaker 1: a seven and two record.
25:55
Speaker 2: Listen high highs low lows. Yeah, where the shows.
25:59
Speaker 1: Total shot offense. I wish we knew what does it
26:01
Speaker 1: say which team he has all these teams and where
26:04
Speaker 1: they are in three and outs? But not from twenty
26:07
Speaker 1: fourteen and not which team that was sure, But that's okay,
26:11
Speaker 1: right because it is the context and the next next
26:13
Speaker 1: line draft. But absolutely anything I jumped out to you
26:16
Speaker 1: on this.
26:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting that they're you know,
26:21
Speaker 2: their touchdown rate is higher than last year's. But I
26:26
Speaker 2: don't know, it's it's it's it's it's interesting, it really is.
26:30
Speaker 3: It's it looks like it's on the same exact Well
26:34
Speaker 3: do we have the exact number, because it looks like
26:36
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five they're just under thirty five percent and
26:40
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four they're it might be like thirty four
26:44
Speaker 3: to thirty three.
26:44
Speaker 1: I don't know, just the fact that it's in line.
26:47
Speaker 2: It's close, they're close, but but it's definitely higher right
26:51
Speaker 2: this year, so but not as high as twenty twenty two,
26:54
Speaker 2: which looks like it's exactly thirty five percent.
26:56
Speaker 1: So correct, So they've scored the same amount. Know, in
27:00
Speaker 1: last year they're three and out. Drive was much more
27:03
Speaker 1: middle of the pack, and then this year it's like
27:07
Speaker 1: there's there they're like if this were a race, they're
27:10
Speaker 1: winning by like four legs.
27:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, and not to beat a dead horse here, but
27:14
Speaker 2: like not sustainable right, this this I mean, the sequencing
27:18
Speaker 2: is a problem. They haven't figured it out. This is
27:21
Speaker 2: it's just not sustainable. You're going to lose games if
27:24
Speaker 2: you keep going three and out. Yep, you're going to
27:28
Speaker 2: lose games, if you keep being third and long disproportionately
27:32
Speaker 2: relative to your opponents. It's just not a winning formula.
27:36
Speaker 2: They get away with it, They very much get away
27:38
Speaker 2: with it, but it is not a sustainable winning formula,
27:42
Speaker 2: all right.
27:43
Speaker 1: And so he follows that up. Somebody asked him, so
27:46
Speaker 1: he he's They asked, him, well, you know, what's the
27:48
Speaker 1: history of teams with this kind of three and out
27:50
Speaker 1: rate and their overall win loss success. So he says,
27:55
Speaker 1: here it is avoiding three and out rate on an
27:57
Speaker 1: X axis, and you know, so he's got the x
27:59
Speaker 1: axis to yxes here and basically what he's found that
28:02
Speaker 1: since two thousand, the only team to finish even close
28:08
Speaker 1: to dcent five hundred with a three and out rate
28:10
Speaker 1: that the same as the Eagles have this year was
28:13
Speaker 1: the two thousand and nine forty niners. So sixteen years ago, right,
28:19
Speaker 1: they were eight and eight. So the point is, when
28:22
Speaker 1: you have a three and out rate this bad. The
28:25
Speaker 1: best you can do over the last sixteen years is
28:28
Speaker 1: be eight and eight and somehow the Eagles are seven
28:31
Speaker 1: and two. I'm gonna reiterate that the best you can be,
28:34
Speaker 1: which means that probably and if you look at the chart,
28:37
Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't take a genius to figure it out.
28:39
Speaker 1: Seventy five percent teams are probably terrible with this three
28:41
Speaker 1: and out rate, and the Eagles are seven and two.
28:45
Speaker 1: That is a to me, Sam, it's a dangerous outlier.
28:49
Speaker 2: I mean, listen, they are the anomaly. This is an
28:51
Speaker 2: anomaly season for a lot of reasons. This is a
28:54
Speaker 2: big one. Will they figure it out? You know, they
28:58
Speaker 2: still have time, That's the fun thing. They still have
29:01
Speaker 2: time to figure it out. It would help if public
29:05
Speaker 2: facing that they were all on the same page, maybe
29:08
Speaker 2: that would help a little bit. But yep, and I
29:11
Speaker 2: really don't. I've been so supportive of aj Brown this
29:16
Speaker 2: entire time, but come on, man, at some point, I
29:20
Speaker 2: don't know. I try to keep it at that point
29:23
Speaker 2: because I do respect him. I think he's a great
29:25
Speaker 2: player and he has a lot of value, right, but
29:27
Speaker 2: at some point you just got to you got to
29:29
Speaker 2: resolve your issues internally and stop, you know, adding fuel
29:33
Speaker 2: to the fire.
29:34
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think and I know that there's
29:35
Speaker 1: a lot of this is very divisive for a lot
29:37
Speaker 1: of people, but I think for many of us, it's
29:40
Speaker 1: fair to say that nothing aj Brown has said is
29:45
Speaker 1: factually inaccurate or even or as thrown an individual under
29:49
Speaker 1: the bus. But the way that he constantly says it
29:53
Speaker 1: in platforms that are meant to be catch headlines shows
29:58
Speaker 1: you that he's trying to make his point known, and
30:01
Speaker 1: maybe not the most constructive way. I think that that's fair.
30:05
Speaker 1: And something Adam and I brought up is that seems
30:08
Speaker 1: to go fine when you're winning, right, but when you're
30:12
Speaker 1: you lose a game where you lose to a four
30:14
Speaker 1: or something like that, then it manifests and becomes much
30:17
Speaker 1: much worse. Yeah, so they keep winning, it's right, they
30:21
Speaker 1: keep winning, it's fine. But like we're going through the
30:24
Speaker 1: analytics here, there are some things to suggest that trouble
30:26
Speaker 1: could be on the way, and then that part of
30:28
Speaker 1: it could make that trouble even worse, and then the
30:31
Speaker 1: comes apart.
30:32
Speaker 2: There's indications of issues and if the Eagles do collapse,
30:38
Speaker 2: which none of us want to see, there are significant
30:42
Speaker 2: warning size and explanations. But we've been pointing this out
30:47
Speaker 2: for weeks. Do do we think that the Eagles know
30:49
Speaker 2: that these issues exist? Absolutely, like they one hundred percent
30:52
Speaker 2: know that these are issues. What concerns me is that
30:55
Speaker 2: it doesn't seem like they fixed it since the bye
30:57
Speaker 2: week and that was like the perfect time to figure
31:00
Speaker 2: it out. Doesn't mean that they won't figure it out.
31:02
Speaker 2: They still have a lot of games left, but it
31:05
Speaker 2: does concern me that these repeated issues still exist.
31:11
Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look advanced analytics of the
31:13
Speaker 1: Eagles Packers game offensively. I guess the the big number
31:18
Speaker 1: that jumps out to start with is that their past
31:20
Speaker 1: EPA for pass was plus you knower point three to one,
31:23
Speaker 1: which is very high and above their season average of
31:27
Speaker 1: zero point oh four. But that's sort of is that
31:29
Speaker 1: weighted I guess by a the lack of high volume
31:33
Speaker 1: throws and then be the one he did throw that
31:35
Speaker 1: they were they were shots that worked. Yeah, absolutely, Like
31:39
Speaker 1: how much does that dump off to Saquon Barkley that
31:42
Speaker 1: goes for forty one yards which is you know, I'm
31:45
Speaker 1: not going to take credit away, but there's nothing involved
31:47
Speaker 1: in that for jail and hurts. You just see what
31:50
Speaker 1: he wanted to throw the ball to Saquon right.
31:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, and by the way, I will say A. J.
31:55
Speaker 2: Brown probably had his best play of the game.
31:58
Speaker 1: Great blocking.
31:59
Speaker 2: It was great blocking, great body positioning. I mean he
32:02
Speaker 2: took two guys out of the play.
32:03
Speaker 1: He did. We highlighted that on inside the tape.
32:06
Speaker 2: It was incredible. And like I said, I really love
32:10
Speaker 2: AJ Brown. I love the contributions that he does, and
32:13
Speaker 2: that is a on a winning football team. That is
32:16
Speaker 2: a huge contribution, right, I mean most receivers don't even
32:20
Speaker 2: take one guy out of the play, so I just
32:22
Speaker 2: want to point that out.
32:23
Speaker 1: So sure, and if the Giants game was one step
32:27
Speaker 1: forward for the run game, the Packers game is sort
32:31
Speaker 1: of two steps back. As their EPA goes to minus four.
32:33
Speaker 1: That's almost four times worse than what their normal season
32:37
Speaker 1: EPA is. If I'm doing math correctly there, or I
32:41
Speaker 1: might not be doing math correctly there, but it's really
32:43
Speaker 1: bad at minus zero point four to five.
32:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not ideal. I mean their EPAP rush is
32:49
Speaker 2: pretty close to zero, so I mean it got it
32:53
Speaker 2: was positive for most of the beginning of the season
32:56
Speaker 2: and it just fell off.
32:58
Speaker 1: Yeah. And by the way, I bet you if you
32:59
Speaker 1: did their EPA per rush by halftime, it wasn't this
33:03
Speaker 1: bad they really, I mean, it seems you know, Barkley
33:06
Speaker 1: had the fifteen yard run, Bigsby had a decent run,
33:09
Speaker 1: Shimpley had an okay run like they were gaining yard. Well,
33:13
Speaker 1: I don't know. I guess that that was probably the
33:15
Speaker 1: third and twelve. See. I think some of this is
33:17
Speaker 1: impacted by the third and twelve submissive runs that the
33:21
Speaker 1: Eagles did third and long because you probably get a
33:24
Speaker 1: negative EPA on those, even though the coaching staff wants
33:27
Speaker 1: to do that. Right.
33:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, and honestly, I am usually a fan of the
33:33
Speaker 2: third and long drawl. I know people hate it. I
33:36
Speaker 2: know people hate it, but I think it's it's a
33:39
Speaker 2: pretty good strategy. The issue that I have is there
33:42
Speaker 2: at third and long way too much. Yes, that's all.
33:46
Speaker 1: I agree. They have converted a heck of a lot
33:48
Speaker 1: of third and mediums the third and lungs of the
33:50
Speaker 1: running game by surprise. But I also think Sam Lynny
33:53
Speaker 1: did that usually like design a cool little kickout. It's
33:56
Speaker 1: not just a run up the middle, No, it never is.
33:58
Speaker 1: Those games with those those the ones against the Packers
34:01
Speaker 1: felt like submissive. We're just running it up the middle.
34:03
Speaker 2: No, it did, and I get it, but it's just
34:06
Speaker 2: the I think the frustration stems from the fact that
34:10
Speaker 2: this is an aggressive team and yet in situations where
34:13
Speaker 2: you can and like historically should be aggressive, they're not.
34:17
Speaker 2: So I understand that frustration, and I really do understand it.
34:21
Speaker 2: But there are times where they need to be conservative.
34:24
Speaker 2: It's just you're there disproportionately. That's all right.
34:27
Speaker 1: I love your stat on sort of the time to
34:30
Speaker 1: throw versus the time to be pressured. He had more
34:32
Speaker 1: time to throw, he was pressured faster, and therefore, you know,
34:36
Speaker 1: so you're happy with sort of protection. But he did
34:38
Speaker 1: get pressure quicker, so there could have been some holding
34:42
Speaker 1: onto the ball, some good defense. Your your NTBP, which
34:46
Speaker 1: is it's not pressure. Net time before pressure lower than
34:51
Speaker 1: what it has been for the season.
34:53
Speaker 2: This is the worst I've ever seen. This is the
34:55
Speaker 2: worst net time before pressure I've ever seen. And Hurts
34:57
Speaker 2: gets away with it because he's an extended and can be.
35:00
Speaker 2: But almost one second of just holding onto the ball
35:05
Speaker 2: while pressured is just not a recipe for success, and
35:07
Speaker 2: it's probably part of the reason there was only ten
35:09
Speaker 2: points scored in this game by the Eagles.
35:11
Speaker 1: That's right. And he was pressured at a lower rate,
35:14
Speaker 1: a much lower rate than normal compared to thirty seven percent,
35:18
Speaker 1: and not sacked and not sacked correct, which is insane.
35:21
Speaker 2: Holding the ball for one second past almost one second
35:25
Speaker 2: past the pressure time and you still, you know, get
35:29
Speaker 2: away with no sacks and lower pressure rate. It's crazy.
35:32
Speaker 2: That is insane.
35:33
Speaker 1: Yep. Lower run success rate obviously than what the season is,
35:38
Speaker 1: which is not great because you know, the seasons has
35:41
Speaker 1: been a struggle stuff. Right, Well, I guess I thought
35:45
Speaker 1: that would be interesting. I thought he got it. Seemed
35:47
Speaker 1: to me in the second half every time he touched
35:48
Speaker 1: the ball he's getting killed behind line of scrimmage.
35:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, but hey, that's what the numbers say.
35:54
Speaker 1: Yep, that's what the numbers are, all right, I get Well,
35:57
Speaker 1: this also counts other people's runs and I think quarterback,
36:00
Speaker 1: right it does?
36:00
Speaker 2: Yes?
36:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, so Jill and hurts probably his third, his eleven. Well,
36:05
Speaker 1: how does that work? Does the eleven yard run on
36:07
Speaker 1: third and eight that results in a fumble still result
36:09
Speaker 1: in a positive run success or does the fumble factor in.
36:14
Speaker 2: The fumble factors in?
36:15
Speaker 1: Okay? Interesting?
36:17
Speaker 2: And by the way, that fumble, you know, the little
36:20
Speaker 2: little peanut punch type type play that you saw. Yeah,
36:24
Speaker 2: also an anomaly. I mean, Hurts doesn't usually fumble that,
36:28
Speaker 2: and I don't think he would have if the punch
36:30
Speaker 2: out wasn't perfect.
36:31
Speaker 1: I agree. I thought that that was a rare turnover
36:34
Speaker 1: where you you say, great job by the opponent more
36:36
Speaker 1: than sloppy job by the.
36:39
Speaker 2: But mentally it I really do think it affected Hurts
36:43
Speaker 2: and Batula, which is a problem. Not to harp on it,
36:46
Speaker 2: but I really do think mentally that had a toll
36:50
Speaker 2: in this game.
36:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, and maybe for both coaches, because you know, Love's
36:55
Speaker 1: fumble came a little bit later, but it looked like
36:58
Speaker 1: that he didn't want his quarterback throwing the ball much either.
37:01
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I mean, because I mean, listen, winning the
37:04
Speaker 2: turnover battle is huge in this game, and it's in
37:06
Speaker 2: a small scoring in a low scoring game, winning the
37:10
Speaker 2: turnover battle is I mean, it's winning the turn of
37:12
Speaker 2: a battle is important regardless. But when possessions are somewhat limited,
37:16
Speaker 2: which they looked like they were going to be, right
37:18
Speaker 2: you look at the first quarter. There was only two
37:19
Speaker 2: possessions in the first quarter.
37:21
Speaker 1: Yeah.
37:21
Speaker 2: Now the Eagles three and out, three and out, three
37:24
Speaker 2: and out, three and out, which added to that. But
37:26
Speaker 2: the way the game flow was going, I mean you
37:29
Speaker 2: you really had to be you know, conservative with your
37:33
Speaker 2: possessions and try to hold onto the ball as much
37:36
Speaker 2: as possible. I think that was the thought process at least.
37:40
Speaker 1: Sure. Sure, And I guess more kind of ominous for
37:44
Speaker 1: the run game is that they saw a stack box
37:47
Speaker 1: at you know, a quarter of the time as opposed
37:49
Speaker 1: to where they usually is a third of the time,
37:51
Speaker 1: and they still really couldn't get the run game going.
37:53
Speaker 1: Separation stats are about right around season average, So average
37:56
Speaker 1: separation that's average separation per target correct correct correct, So
38:00
Speaker 1: right around where they've been in season three point six.
38:04
Speaker 1: And that was all next gen stats. Let's get to
38:07
Speaker 1: your game theory. I'm really excited to hear your takes.
38:11
Speaker 2: On this, all right, So let's just talk about this
38:14
Speaker 2: right now. Basically, I used Pro Football References win probability calculator.
38:20
Speaker 2: There's probably better models out there. I used it because
38:24
Speaker 2: anybody can use it. You guys can after we'd done
38:26
Speaker 2: this podcast, you guys can look it up and you
38:28
Speaker 2: can run through your own scenarios. And I had a
38:30
Speaker 2: lot of fun going through the scenarios and trying to
38:33
Speaker 2: map out because one of the things I think we
38:36
Speaker 2: talk about a lot is the Eagles should have done this,
38:38
Speaker 2: They should have done that, and I think it's important
38:41
Speaker 2: to understand contextually why they did it in the game
38:44
Speaker 2: and how it affects, you know, their win probability. And
38:47
Speaker 2: this is kind of a real life model of what
38:50
Speaker 2: they do. Now their models factor in stuff that. So
38:54
Speaker 2: for instance, just to tell you what this model actually uses,
38:59
Speaker 2: because I I think it's important to you know, always
39:02
Speaker 2: qualify what we're doing. This one used score differential, time,
39:07
Speaker 2: remaining field position, and yards to go, as well as
39:10
Speaker 2: quarter and down. Those were the statistics that you know,
39:13
Speaker 2: football references win. Probably it didn't factor in timeouts. Okay, look,
39:19
Speaker 2: there's no way to film to you know, their wind
39:23
Speaker 2: was not great in that stadium. It was a problem
39:26
Speaker 2: right man was struggling to punt earlier in the game.
39:30
Speaker 2: So you can't factor that into these models. It just
39:33
Speaker 2: there's no way to. So I think that's important just
39:36
Speaker 2: talk about what the issues with the model are.
39:38
Speaker 1: Ok.
39:39
Speaker 2: But now that we've done that, let's go talk about
39:42
Speaker 2: the situation. The Eagles are ten to seven, they're leading,
39:45
Speaker 2: so that there they're up three points. It's the fourth quarter,
39:48
Speaker 2: thirty three seconds, fourth and six on the thirty five
39:51
Speaker 2: yard line, zero opponent timeouts. Their win probability as it
39:56
Speaker 2: stands is ninety six point nine to nine.
39:59
Speaker 1: So wait, you have the are you is the zero
40:01
Speaker 1: point timeouts just you're adding.
40:02
Speaker 2: To it or I just wanted to talk about the
40:04
Speaker 2: situation we got fact that the model because I think
40:07
Speaker 2: it's important because if you get that first down, you
40:10
Speaker 2: ice the game, you win. That's at the end of
40:12
Speaker 2: the day. That's that's That's the reason I wanted to
40:15
Speaker 2: spell out the entire situation. It's in its entirety.
40:18
Speaker 1: So that's going to clarify that that wasn't part of
40:20
Speaker 1: what you can enter into the equation.
40:22
Speaker 2: Correct, at least in this model. There are, like I said,
40:24
Speaker 2: there are more advanced models, and all models are going
40:27
Speaker 2: to have different things. I just want to tell you
40:29
Speaker 2: what I use for this analysis, and so I think
40:31
Speaker 2: it's a good model. I think there are better ones
40:34
Speaker 2: that That's what I'll say. Okay, so drawing off sides
40:38
Speaker 2: definitely is the.
40:40
Speaker 1: You didn't if the win probability in that situation is
40:43
Speaker 1: ninety seven percent for what you punched into the computer.
40:48
Speaker 2: And it doesn't change crazy enough as a fourth and
40:51
Speaker 2: one versus a fourth and six, right, which which is interesting.
40:54
Speaker 2: But knowing this Eagles team, if they were able to
40:57
Speaker 2: get it to a fourth and one, you it would
40:59
Speaker 2: just be a touch push, which you're almost automatic on.
41:03
Speaker 2: So that is the optimal strategy. But obviously and then
41:06
Speaker 2: like you would call a timeout or take the delay
41:09
Speaker 2: of game, but honestly, ideally the timeout. Yes, yeah, I'm
41:13
Speaker 2: just saying that.
41:14
Speaker 1: How awesome. By the way, just real quick aside is
41:17
Speaker 1: if they were able to get the Packers to go
41:20
Speaker 1: off sides and then they literally won the game drain
41:23
Speaker 1: the clock on a toush push against the Packers who
41:26
Speaker 1: are vehemanly against the toush push, that it.
41:28
Speaker 2: Would have been iconic, yes, But I mean they weren't
41:32
Speaker 2: able to draw them off side. So it's kind of
41:34
Speaker 2: a moot point, which is why I just put this
41:35
Speaker 2: here because it's interesting, but it's not really going to
41:39
Speaker 2: be part of analysis. I do think it's interesting that
41:41
Speaker 2: this model does not think fourth and one is more
41:45
Speaker 2: advantageous than fourth and six, and I think it shows
41:48
Speaker 2: limitation to this model because I think fourth and one
41:50
Speaker 2: is significantly better and I think it should impact win percentage.
41:53
Speaker 1: Yeah, you should be able to enter on your own
41:58
Speaker 1: what the team that you're studying fourth down conversion rate
42:03
Speaker 1: is for the season to see if that changes the
42:06
Speaker 1: theory equation.
42:08
Speaker 2: I agree with you, but unfortunately not here. So so
42:13
Speaker 2: now that we talked about that strategy, I think it's
42:15
Speaker 2: important to look at the three actual strategies that exist,
42:18
Speaker 2: right hunting, field goal or go Now before we actually
42:22
Speaker 2: go into this, what would have been if you were
42:24
Speaker 2: had that headset on, what would your mindset be? What
42:27
Speaker 2: would you have picked?
42:28
Speaker 1: So I was weighing at the time between fuel goal
42:32
Speaker 1: and punt, and I understand the wind and the issue,
42:37
Speaker 1: but I mean, Jake Elliott has been a really good
42:39
Speaker 1: bad weather kicker in his career and he hasn't struggled
42:44
Speaker 1: this year like he did last year when he was
42:45
Speaker 1: dealing with the injury. So part of me was saying
42:50
Speaker 1: it was really like, go for it, Go kick the
42:52
Speaker 1: fuel goal and go up thirteen to seven, because then
42:56
Speaker 1: they have to score a touchdown to beat you. But
42:57
Speaker 1: then I thought, well, then if you're scared, just and
42:59
Speaker 1: then then punt and make them go the length of
43:02
Speaker 1: the field, drawing a running a play was not in
43:04
Speaker 1: my in my modus of thinking at that point.
43:08
Speaker 2: So you want to hear something crazy, Yeah, the field
43:11
Speaker 2: goal is the worst possible choice.
43:13
Speaker 1: I figured that that was gonna be the case, and.
43:15
Speaker 2: It's it's a little bit surprising because it's counterintuitive. Yeah,
43:19
Speaker 2: because you know, you take the tie out of the equation, right,
43:23
Speaker 2: you're going to force the offense to throw the ball.
43:25
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to be aggressive. But there's been too
43:29
Speaker 2: many times that you know, you see teams that go
43:33
Speaker 2: up six and then the other team scores the touchdown
43:36
Speaker 2: and walks off. It's happened this year multiple times.
43:39
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I could see why the punt analytically
43:42
Speaker 4: would be the number one if you haven't told me
43:45
Speaker 4: what it was, but I could see because then they
43:48
Speaker 4: have to go the length of the field and score
43:51
Speaker 4: seven points or no, I'm sorry, a punt you only.
43:54
Speaker 1: Have to score three. But on a day where it's
43:57
Speaker 1: tough for them to even get yardage and you have
43:59
Speaker 1: to at least make them go, I don't know, like
44:01
Speaker 1: you punt the ball if you're able to let's say
44:03
Speaker 1: even the gosan zone touchback the stuff to get the ball,
44:06
Speaker 1: like forty to fifty yards with no timeouts.
44:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, And one thing I don't think this model is factored,
44:13
Speaker 2: and I don't think it can, at least this year,
44:15
Speaker 2: is that kicking has been expanded, right, the new kicking balls,
44:19
Speaker 2: you can get a field goal a lot further. Now, again,
44:22
Speaker 2: the wind conditions were not great in this game, as
44:24
Speaker 2: we saw with bandness, But I do think that factors
44:29
Speaker 2: into this somehow, and it probably should change at least
44:32
Speaker 2: some of the modeling. But let's so, I think there's
44:36
Speaker 2: two ways you look at this, right, and the reason
44:39
Speaker 2: why you make the decision What happens if I'm successful,
44:43
Speaker 2: What happens if I fail? I think that's the two.
44:46
Speaker 2: And then and then what is the delta between my
44:48
Speaker 2: success and failure? And I think that's what we'll look
44:51
Speaker 2: at with this. So punting, again, the wind conditions and
44:55
Speaker 2: punting were not great in the game. You know, Man
44:57
Speaker 2: kind of struggled, and I think Man's been a great
44:59
Speaker 2: punter on it throughout his entire tenure with the Eagles.
45:01
Speaker 2: This is one of the games where he struggled. I
45:05
Speaker 2: wined or not he struggled. Uh, And honestly, I kind
45:08
Speaker 2: of feel like it stemed from the time he got
45:09
Speaker 2: kind of hit. Oh, I think it was the first
45:12
Speaker 2: pun of that they did.
45:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Packers probably came after him a
45:16
Speaker 1: little bit more than I've seen other teams do. They
45:17
Speaker 1: would look like they were a full punt rush on
45:20
Speaker 1: a bunch of those punts.
45:21
Speaker 2: So that that's just worth noting. And I think that
45:24
Speaker 2: definitely factored into coach Sirianni's head and I think that
45:27
Speaker 2: was part of it.
45:28
Speaker 1: Right. So by the way, I have to I have
45:30
Speaker 1: to correct myself because I think I said I would
45:32
Speaker 1: have punted. And if it goes in the end zone
45:33
Speaker 1: it gets to twenty, it's obviously the thirty five now,
45:35
Speaker 1: which is where the ball was anyway, So but go ahead.
45:40
Speaker 2: But if they punt would be the twenty.
45:42
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, what am I talking about? I'm sorry,
45:44
Speaker 1: I'm thinking kickoff touch back. I thought I made a mistake,
45:46
Speaker 1: but I didn't.
45:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, punt would have been yeah, yeah, yeah, you're great,
45:50
Speaker 2: don't worry.
45:51
Speaker 1: You don't make it overthinking something go ahead is that we.
45:54
Speaker 2: Want to be as transparent and give the best information,
45:57
Speaker 2: so we'll admit when we make mistakes because it have
46:00
Speaker 2: absolutely But again with the punt, you know, opposing offense
46:06
Speaker 2: will play a little more conservatively as they have the
46:08
Speaker 2: tie in their pocket, like presumably. And then I assumed
46:14
Speaker 2: a punt time of about five seconds. I think I
46:16
Speaker 2: looked it up in the average punt time was like
46:18
Speaker 2: nine seconds, but based on where they are on the field,
46:21
Speaker 2: there's no way that it would take nine seconds and
46:23
Speaker 2: plus the urgency, so I think five was a fair thing. Okay,
46:27
Speaker 2: So again punt. I looked at several outcomes of the punt.
46:32
Speaker 2: On touchback, their win percentage goes from that ninety six
46:37
Speaker 2: point nine to nine to eighty nine point twenty seven
46:40
Speaker 2: if you get if they get it to the thirty
46:42
Speaker 2: yard line, they return it to the thirty yard line,
46:44
Speaker 2: it goes from that ninety seven percent to to eighty
46:47
Speaker 2: eight percent. But if you get him in the fifteen
46:50
Speaker 2: yard line, it's ninety two point eighty six or the
46:53
Speaker 2: ten yard line or less. I checked every single one
46:56
Speaker 2: because I was like, gonna do a little bit further.
46:58
Speaker 2: It goes to ninety five point three to nine. So
47:00
Speaker 2: your win percentage goes if you're successful, which I think
47:04
Speaker 2: a successful punt would be ten yard line or less,
47:07
Speaker 2: which is possible if you just hang it really high
47:09
Speaker 2: in the air. Yeah, and get it, you know, to
47:12
Speaker 2: fare catch it. Sure, your win percentage goes from ninety
47:15
Speaker 2: six point nine to nine to ninety five point three nine.
47:18
Speaker 1: Right, So no matter what scenario you had, your winning
47:20
Speaker 1: percentage drops though under the as you mentioned, it does drop.
47:24
Speaker 2: Yesh, because you're giving them considerably only up three. But
47:29
Speaker 2: as you'll see, that drop is the least drop that
47:33
Speaker 2: you'll see, if you know, the failure again would be
47:38
Speaker 2: them getting them. It could be them scoring on the punt,
47:41
Speaker 2: but there never would be a situation where they even
47:44
Speaker 2: really put it in play. That's why I thought the
47:46
Speaker 2: thirty yard line, because you know, I could see maybe
47:49
Speaker 2: them like picking if it was not a great punt.
47:52
Speaker 2: I don't know. I really don't see a situation where
47:54
Speaker 2: you put that ball in harm's way in that punt
47:57
Speaker 2: if you do side to punt. But again, the worst
48:01
Speaker 2: case scenario that I've outlined is if they got it
48:04
Speaker 2: on the thirty yard line and that's an eighty seven,
48:06
Speaker 2: it goes down from ninety seven to eighty eight. So
48:10
Speaker 2: and we'll see. You know, you go to the field
48:12
Speaker 2: goal again when conditions not ideal, you go up six.
48:16
Speaker 2: If successful you know, and you kick and it's going
48:20
Speaker 2: to be a touchback. It probably will be because you
48:23
Speaker 2: know that it'll go to ninety one point six eight percent.
48:28
Speaker 2: So even up six, giving them just give the by
48:31
Speaker 2: virtue of giving them the ball back, it goes from
48:34
Speaker 2: ninety seven to ninety two.
48:36
Speaker 1: Oh again a drop.
48:39
Speaker 2: But if you're not successful, and this is a really
48:42
Speaker 2: important point, it's where you kick the ball from. So
48:45
Speaker 2: they're getting better field position, of course. Uh, and it's
48:49
Speaker 2: eighty three point one percent, which is the lowest success rate, right,
48:54
Speaker 2: I mean, you're giving them incredible field position and you're
48:58
Speaker 2: only up three.
48:59
Speaker 1: And I think this is the strongest argument there is
49:01
Speaker 1: that of all the three options, field goal is the worst.
49:05
Speaker 1: As you just mentioned her, yep, either punt or go
49:08
Speaker 1: for it.
49:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, now let's talk about what actually happened. Yep, you
49:13
Speaker 2: can ice the game or get a penalty. Trust the defense.
49:15
Speaker 2: The defense was playing phenomenally. I get it. I really
49:18
Speaker 2: do get the decision. If you're successful one hundred percent
49:21
Speaker 2: win percentage, I mean, it's the only one of the
49:24
Speaker 2: three options that the right. Yeah, But if you're not successful,
49:31
Speaker 2: they get the ball in the thirty five and your
49:34
Speaker 2: win percentage goes from ninety seven to eighty seven drops
49:37
Speaker 2: ten percent, right, So I understand why they did because
49:42
Speaker 2: they look, that is the way to win the game.
49:45
Speaker 2: But your win percentage drops way more than if you
49:47
Speaker 2: punt it.
49:50
Speaker 1: So the best situation would have been, let me sorry,
49:57
Speaker 1: the best situation that they didn't choose, all right, other
50:00
Speaker 1: than going for it and getting it, is a punt
50:03
Speaker 1: within the fifteen or a ten yard line, Yes, okay,
50:08
Speaker 1: And you would think with your punder and with the
50:10
Speaker 1: short field, like you said, you know, just hanging one
50:13
Speaker 1: up there, you probably got a pretty good chot. And
50:17
Speaker 1: you know, we don't know what the analytics are that
50:19
Speaker 1: your punt is going to be successful where you want it.
50:22
Speaker 1: That's a whole other story. But like this part of
50:25
Speaker 1: this is just like trusting your personnel, right. So that's
50:29
Speaker 1: why I'm surprised, Sam that of all the options that
50:34
Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni talked about after the game and even the
50:37
Speaker 1: next day, do you realize he never even talked about punting.
50:40
Speaker 1: It was always either why I didn't choose the field
50:43
Speaker 1: goal and why I did go for it. It's very
50:46
Speaker 1: interesting to me.
50:47
Speaker 2: That is interesting, even though this is not even the
50:51
Speaker 2: only model that says it that. There there was some
50:54
Speaker 2: good content creators on X that I saw that had
50:57
Speaker 2: other models that all said the punt was the right
51:00
Speaker 2: choice pretty consistently.
51:04
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, now now were now here's the part
51:08
Speaker 1: where we acknowledge analytics don't always the game is going,
51:12
Speaker 1: who's hurt, what your your personnel is like? Right, I
51:15
Speaker 1: mean the way the game is struggled.
51:18
Speaker 2: I mean the wind and man struggled. So I get it.
51:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So just uh, really interesting stuff that
51:25
Speaker 1: I'm really glad. This is the first time we've gone
51:27
Speaker 1: into game theory where you've brought that that tool into
51:30
Speaker 1: uh inside the data, and I really like.
51:32
Speaker 2: That and maybe eventually I'll have my own model, but
51:36
Speaker 2: I was not. I did not have one ready to
51:39
Speaker 2: go right now.
51:41
Speaker 1: Awesome, All right, let's fly through the defense here. Obviously,
51:46
Speaker 1: it's just like we're talking about the offense, You're gonna
51:48
Speaker 1: see a lot of good numbers on defense. They were.
51:50
Speaker 1: They were pretty good there from an EPA standpoint, every
51:53
Speaker 1: pretty great, right on par with the season and time
51:58
Speaker 1: to throw right higher in time to pressure, which you
52:01
Speaker 1: would expect. Jalen Phillips's addition mattered, so they had a
52:05
Speaker 1: higher quarterback pressure percentage forty point five. That's that was
52:09
Speaker 1: actually significantly higher than they are season average of thirty
52:13
Speaker 1: five point two. Sack percentage was up from five point
52:17
Speaker 1: All their defensive numbers are up in a big pretty big,
52:19
Speaker 1: and I would say profound way.
52:22
Speaker 2: Instant impact by Jalen Phillips. It truly was. It truly
52:26
Speaker 2: was instant impact. And that's why you'll notice I did
52:31
Speaker 2: not pick a star of the statute for the offense.
52:34
Speaker 1: Right, why would you?
52:36
Speaker 2: But I did for the defense, and you've alluded to
52:38
Speaker 2: who it was. Yes, And to close it off, I
52:42
Speaker 2: just I took the next gen stats for Jalen Phillips.
52:46
Speaker 2: You can go down, don't worry. I just took his
52:50
Speaker 2: because I just thought they were fun and I figured
52:51
Speaker 2: it's a good way to end it's a positive note.
52:54
Speaker 1: Yes, I saw them too. They were great.
52:56
Speaker 2: But VIC is finally comfortable because you know how you
52:59
Speaker 2: can tell he didn't blitz very much. It was one
53:01
Speaker 2: of the lowest blitz rates and we'll talk about it.
53:03
Speaker 2: So individual impact. Jalen Phillips generated seven pressures on thirty
53:06
Speaker 2: six pass rushes, his most in any game since twenty
53:11
Speaker 2: twenty two. Week eighteen and twenty point two, and second
53:13
Speaker 2: most by any Eagle in a game this season. Instant impact.
53:17
Speaker 2: You know, he recorded a pressure rate of fifteen percent
53:21
Speaker 2: since entering the league in twenty twenty one, which is
53:23
Speaker 2: the eleventh highest among players with at least one thousand
53:25
Speaker 2: pass rushes over the last five seasons. Immediate impact. The
53:28
Speaker 2: Eagles posted a forty point five percent pressure rate against
53:31
Speaker 2: the Packers, their third highest of the season, despite a
53:34
Speaker 2: season low blitz rate nine point five percent. Mastivixed comfort
53:39
Speaker 2: level is it?
53:40
Speaker 1: Yep, that's what won in the Super Bowl. No blitzink
53:42
Speaker 1: still getting pressure. I love that.
53:44
Speaker 2: That's what That's what they've been missing. He he's finally
53:47
Speaker 2: been able to you know. I think Brandon Graham being
53:50
Speaker 2: back helped some to some extent.
53:51
Speaker 1: Just Nolan Smith too, he played course, of.
53:54
Speaker 2: Course, Nold Smith was a huge part of it.
53:55
Speaker 1: Put out el Elton Jenkins again, poor kid. Poor guy
53:58
Speaker 1: broke his ankle now.
54:00
Speaker 2: But it is tough. He's he's struggled.
54:02
Speaker 1: It's the same guy though. That's the crazy thing. Remember, Ugh,
54:05
Speaker 1: you hate to see it.
54:06
Speaker 2: You never want anyone to get hurt. It's always hard,
54:09
Speaker 2: regardless of what team you're on injuries never fun, right,
54:13
Speaker 2: But when rushing for or fewer defenders against the Packers,
54:16
Speaker 2: Eagles generated as season five fifteen pressures and a thirty
54:20
Speaker 2: nine point five percent pressure rate, second highest in twenty
54:22
Speaker 2: twenty five.
54:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, they got I don't know if you remember the play.
54:25
Speaker 1: They got a three man rush going. It looked like
54:28
Speaker 1: a four man rush. It was actually Jalen Carter was
54:31
Speaker 1: lined up over right tackle and Jalen Phillips was lined
54:34
Speaker 1: up as a four I like interior rusher. They actually
54:38
Speaker 1: dropped into a spy. They got pressure with three anyway,
54:41
Speaker 1: and Phillips was kind of scrambled and what's this up?
54:45
Speaker 1: Sorry enough Phillips the quarterback love scrambled and Phillips had
54:48
Speaker 1: to work as a spy just worked his way through
54:51
Speaker 1: the traffic and chased him to the sideline where I
54:53
Speaker 1: think he just threw it out of bounds, and I'm like,
54:55
Speaker 1: that's that was incredible. They got pressure on a three
54:57
Speaker 1: I hate the three man rush. They got pressure on
55:00
Speaker 1: a three man rush and Jalen Phillips we saw him
55:02
Speaker 1: used as a spy. So that's when I knew Vick
55:04
Speaker 1: was in his bag.
55:05
Speaker 2: No, and you can tell he was much more comfortable
55:09
Speaker 2: because he has somebody that can generate pressure. It just
55:11
Speaker 2: it was a different defense in terms of the pressure
55:14
Speaker 2: and in terms of scheme. What's interesting is you talked
55:17
Speaker 2: about Carter kind of on the edge, and there was
55:20
Speaker 2: another stat that I saw on the insights tab of
55:24
Speaker 2: NFL Pro where Jalen Carter has a line on the
55:26
Speaker 2: edge on a career high thirteen point four percent. Yeah
55:29
Speaker 2: this season, last season, the last two seasons together was
55:33
Speaker 2: four point six.
55:34
Speaker 1: Yeah. I've noticed almost triple yeah. Man, And they're doing
55:37
Speaker 1: more stunting now and I think that's going to continue
55:40
Speaker 1: with the addition of Jalen Phillips is a really good
55:42
Speaker 1: athlete who's played inside and outside, so he has a
55:45
Speaker 1: really good feel for how to to work those t
55:47
Speaker 1: E stunts whether he's the picker or the looper, you know, Like,
55:51
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be a big addition to this defense.
55:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, I absolutely think so. And you could just tell
55:57
Speaker 2: that Fangio felt way more comfortable.
56:00
Speaker 1: Yep.
56:01
Speaker 2: And honestly, independent of those Blitz statistics, which I think
56:05
Speaker 2: are the most you know, compelling evidence to show that
56:09
Speaker 2: that is, he is happy with it. He's comfortable, he's
56:12
Speaker 2: able to, but I do think everything else he said
56:14
Speaker 2: also adds to that as well.
56:16
Speaker 1: There you go. And then you had his pressure rate
56:19
Speaker 1: at seventeen percent this season, which includes his Dolphins stats.
56:23
Speaker 1: That's the highest of his career.
56:24
Speaker 2: Yep.
56:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, ninth highest among players at least one hundred pass rushes.
56:28
Speaker 1: So he's clearly pounced back from the lower leg injuries
56:31
Speaker 1: and back to back years. I mean, he's playing at
56:33
Speaker 1: the level that you would expect him to play, which
56:34
Speaker 1: is always good to say. Absolutely, and I thought his
56:37
Speaker 1: run defense was underrated in this game. He did a
56:40
Speaker 1: good job at least two or three times on inside
56:42
Speaker 1: the tape who showed him shedding either a tight end
56:45
Speaker 1: or a tackle and then making the run stot himself.
56:48
Speaker 2: Yeah.
56:49
Speaker 1: Absolutely, tied for seventh most run stuffs and eighth most
56:54
Speaker 1: run stuffs among all edge defenders that you have there
56:57
Speaker 1: in the NFL. So it's good stuff. Hey, Philly Fit
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Speaker 1: made for Philly fans twenty one and up. Awesome. Hey man,
57:59
Speaker 1: this was a really good episode. That was a really
58:01
Speaker 1: nice deep dive into game theory, third down, the Phillips impact,
58:06
Speaker 1: and the offense. So thanks awesome work for your awesome work.
58:10
Speaker 1: And this next one next week should be interesting with
58:14
Speaker 1: the Lions up next. Right, all right, I'm sure you're
58:17
Speaker 1: gonna ink. Well, we'll see how the game turns out.
58:20
Speaker 1: Either way, you're going to be anxious to dive into
58:22
Speaker 1: the analytics and we'll bring them to you here on
58:25
Speaker 1: Inside the Birds. So Sam, once again, thank you for
58:26
Speaker 1: all the great work that is Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher.
58:29
Speaker 1: You've been watching Inside the data on Inside the Birds.