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Dec 23 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the December 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com.
• 0:15
  We'll turn our attention again to the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention, kind of an elevator pitch, but we'll talk with Wiffles Hybrids about their cooperation with an organization called Farm Rescue. I think you'll find that of interest, and then we'll turn our attention to the agricultural energies with Dan O'Brien at Kansas State University before we talk with Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org where all this year we've been celebrating twenty years of the closing market report as a podcast and forty years as a program. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. March corn for the day settled at $4.47 and a half.
• 1:10
  That was a half higher. The May futures at $4.55 and a half a bushel up a penny. In December, futures at $4.65, a half cent higher. January soybeans, down a penny and three quarters. Settlement price at $10.51 and a half.
• 1:23
  The March at $10.63 and 3 quarters, down 1 and a quarter cents. New crop November three quarters of a cent higher at $10.73. Bean meal up $2.50 at $3.00 $1.10. The bean oil at $48.30, 25¢ lower. Wheat futures soft red at $5.17 in the March, a penny and a half higher, and the hard red winter at $5.28 for the March, up six and three quarters of a cent.
• 1:49
  Lime cattle futures, a dollar 42 and a half lower. Feeders off a buck 50 for the day, and lean hogs up 62 and a half cents for a 100 pounds at $85.97 and a half. Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hi, Naomi. Happy, holidays.
• 2:10
  Merry Christmas to you. Happy New Year's as well.
• 2:13
  Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Same to you.
• 2:14
  Todd Gleason: Let's talk about the marketplace. Give me your perception, kind of an overview. This is a a little broader, but of the last year in the market, how you think it's been in comparison to what your expectations were going into the year, and if you have some outlook for the coming year. But let's start with this past year. How did things go throughout the season?
• 2:38
  Naomi Blohm: Well, I would say overall, you know, I think a lot of folks had an opportunity for cash sales on that rally we had last winter. And then after that, I think the bigger surprising thing was that our summer high came in April, and then we never really got a summer high after that. I think that was the biggest shock for me for the grain markets is is just that the seasonals maybe have shifted somewhat, and then that summer high maybe comes earlier. That could be in part because of the second crop corn in Brazil, the safrinha crop, and how that plays into the global scale. And then of course, always over the marketplace, the continuing geopolitical, changing patterns and tones, trades and tariffs, and how that affected the marketplace as well.
• 3:25
  So now as we, wrap up this year, I think I'm also a little bit surprised that the corn market has been so subdued for two months, with very, very little price action. Some of that may be because of the government shut down and not getting some of those reports and not getting some of those export sales. I love that soybeans had had that rally into November and then that pullback lower that we were kinda looking for, but now we're at a pause point looking to see if China's gonna come in and buy some beans here, additional beans on this correction. And with wheat prices also now trying to find a bottom here, are we getting ripe to have that late very, very late year end rally into the New Year? And if so, this is what farmers need to do, be ready to make some cash sales with it because a lot of times that winter rally comes between mid January and mid February, and we'll see what the January WASDE has to tell us and how that sets us up for 2026.
• 4:28
  Todd Gleason: It will be the series of reports that's due out for the January USDA numbers. They include the crop report, the WASDE, the grain stocks, and some plantings numbers for wheat. As you take a look at those, which one will set the tone? I suppose it would be the one that gives you the biggest surprise, but but what are your expectation expectations, I suppose?
• 4:52
  Naomi Blohm: Well, you know, here's what what we gotta watch here. So with corn market, we know that The US supply is probably in the big picture sufficient. It's it's just a matter if we can get that corn ending stock number under 2,000,000,000 bushels and by how much. And then from there, we're gonna be keeping an eye on the global weather, specifically as it pertains to Brazil with their first and second crop corn because global carryout has been trending lower for about the past eight or nine years. And so if there's an issue with the safrinha crop or if we get a surprise bullish report from the USDA on the American side of things, that could be supportive for corn prices into the New Year.
• 5:33
  The other thing we're gonna wanna be watching would be, of course, how the USDA, if they adjust demand for exports for soybeans, and do they increase demand for soybeans for crush, and ultimately, what does that do to ending stocks here as well. And then, again, we have to start watching weather in South America for their soybean production. And with wheat, I feel like we're gonna see a bigger uptick in demand for US wheat for export on that, January 12 report, and that'll probably bring US wheat ending stocks lower. But then you have to offset that with the balance and the reality that global wheat supplies are sufficient. So where I'm going with all of this is that, you know, I I I hate to kinda say it, but I think the reality is that it may be a struggle next year for corn futures to have a reason to get above five or soybean prices to have a reason to get above 12 or those wheat prices to have a reason to get above six.
• 6:29
  It's gonna take a major weather issue to get those things to happen, But what we also will wanna be watching is how the Supreme Court reacts in response to the tariffs and if they are legal or not. That's a huge piece of the puzzle going forward. And of course, we're looking for peace on earth, right, as we finish out this New Year and and head into the New Year for 2026, and and those global geopolitical ripples can have a black swan effect on markets and market prices at any time.
• 6:59
  Todd Gleason: One last thing to ask you before I let you go. There will be a bridge payment that producers will get probably about $50 an acre in Illinois for corn, 25 to 35 for soybeans. We really don't quite know what those are, but those are some pretty decent estimates, from the farm doc team. Expectation is the producers will use that to keep grains and oilseeds in the bin, should they?
• 7:25
  Naomi Blohm: Well, here's the deal. You still have a business to run, and you still have inventory to manage. And so the market opportunity isn't going to sit around and watch you with your bridge payment and what you do within your bank account. Market opportunities are separate of bridge payments. And so if the grain markets do have a reason to run higher into that January to February seasonal window of a rally, that still is gonna be your cue to get current on cash sales.
• 7:52
  Because that might be as good as it gets until we get some sort of a late spring or early summer rally instead.
• 7:58
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thank you much, Naomi.
• 7:59
  Naomi Blohm: Thank you.
• 8:00
  Todd Gleason: That's Naomi Bloom. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. We're now joined by Robbie Meeker here at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention Kansas City taking place in the month of November. He is with Wiffles Hybrids.
• 8:23
  We'll probably talk some about corn. Yep. But let's first talk about your relationship with Farm Rescue, which is an organization that really helps producers who are in a bad way that can't get in to plant or harvest or do other mid season functions related to the production of agriculture. Agriculture?
• 8:45
  Robby Meeker: Yeah. I think, at Wiffles, we really enjoy the opportunity to partner with growers. And anytime we have our opportunity to give back is an opportunity we wanna take advantage of. And I think Farm Rescue offers that in a way for a very unconventional circumstance for growers that that can arise. It's a way to just help out and help them survive, whatever that challenge, brings forth.
• 9:13
  Todd Gleason: It's an interesting function because they bring the equipment with them to either plant or harvest.
• 9:18
  Robby Meeker: Yeah. I know, we had a neighbor here two falls ago. The father was killed in a in a farming accident right at the beginning of harvest. And I know farm rescue came in and helped helped the son out. And and here, actually, it's been about four years ago.
• 9:32
  Here, three years later, he's maintained his family farm and been able to, to continue and and grow that operation. So it's been it's been fun for me able to see that that local, flavor, from Central Illinois, be able to use Farm Rescue and maintain, the life and the the livingness of that family.
• 9:49
  Todd Gleason: So clearly, you are involved with the Farm Rescue side of this. How how is it that Whiffles helps to identify farmers? How is it that Whipples is working with Farm Rescue over time?
• 10:04
  Robby Meeker: Yeah. I think just being really connected in the field and connected with a lot of operations. If we have a customer, we have a neighbor, we have a friend that's in need, we're a liaison, I guess, to be able to connect them with Farm Rescue and, just allow them to bring forth their services to help out families of need.
• 10:21
  Todd Gleason: Thank you much.
• 10:22
  Robby Meeker: I appreciate it. You bet. Thanks, Todd.
• 10:24
  Todd Gleason: Bobby Meeker is with Wiffles. We're here at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting Convention in Kansas City. I'm Extension's Todd Gleeson. Let's check-in on the agricultural energies market now with Dan O'Brien. He's at Kansas State University with Extension.
• 10:44
  Thank you, Dan, for being with us. Hope you're ready for the holidays.
• 10:50
  Dan O'Brien: Looking forward to it. It'll be great.
• 10:52
  Todd Gleason: Let's get right down to it. Are ethanol plants profitable at this point?
• 10:56
  Dan O'Brien: Yes. Given the numbers out of a representative Iowa plant, it looks like that, break the December breakeven looking at, again, looking at the first two weeks of the month, about a dollar 49 per gallon of, of ethanol. The actual ethanol price is about a dollar 66. So, you know, it's about 17¢ profit profitability. And the these numbers don't take into account what could be what what's anticipated to happen as we get, get past the first of the year to go into the, guess, full full usage of 45 z regulations, the potential for carbon capture, etcetera.
• 11:39
  So so if we're showing profitability of 17¢ on a representative ethanol plant at at this time before a lot of these other revenue streams come in, then that's a they'll be, all that much more of a profitable situation and really probably have longer term consequences on on, well, no doubt, on on corn usage in The United States, profitability of corn usage as as money gets passed on down to farmers and and the crop mix. I understand that Scott Erwin, from there at University of Illinois has been discussing some of the overall impacts. Todd, what what was he saying at a recent conference that y'all had?
• 12:21
  Todd Gleason: Sure. The farm assets conference took place on the December 12, and some of that only about six minutes of it has aired thus far on the radio station. However, in the closing market report Friday, the whole fifty minutes will be there, everything that he actually said, during his presentation. There wasn't a lot about the 45 z. Well, there was a lot about 45 z, but much of it focused on soybeans.
• 12:48
  That part which focused on ethanol was interesting. Scott had done the calculations, and he says he is 99.999% confident
• 12:58
  Dan O'Brien: Pretty confident.
• 12:59
  Todd Gleason: That begin yeah. Yeah. Being being beginning January 1, that ethanol plants across The United States, just a plain old ethanol plant, will collect an 11¢ per gallon, carbon sequestration investment, relatively speaking, or 45 z tax credit, just for being an ethanol plant. Now if they happen to have a carbon pipeline or a way to sequester carbon CCS, carbon capture and sequestration, then that number grows substantially. It's 94¢ per gallon or about three times that or nearly $3 a bushel, that they buy in a tax credit.
• 13:46
  So, I don't know whether you've been following up with, some of the folks that you work with at NDSU. I know you do some monthly, ag energy webinars with them on this issue. What are they telling you about the the CCS and how that might change the landscape?
• 14:04
  Dan O'Brien: As of the December, David Ripplinger, again, a bioenergy economics expert, specialist up there at NDSU indicated that it was well, his estimate was that there were about 24 plants in The US that that were located close enough to to carbon pipelines, newly established carbon pipelines that they would be able to, benefit directly from this higher payment that you're talking about. Total numbers, again, pulling from, Renewable Fuels Association, information, about 201 plants. So you can see I I it looks like to me that this industry is is probably in for some structural change with the strong strong profitability benefits of of ethanol plants located in your pipelines. Either they grow those plants and expand their area, sometimes at the expense of their competitors, or new pipelines come about and and the field gets gets leveled all that much more as as more plants have access. So as we sit here in late, late two thousand twenty five, it it looks like that that, the ethanol industry, as we go on into '26, probably primed for some for some real change, some real structural adjustments, based on who has access to some of these higher revenue streams associated with carbon, pipelines or not.
• 15:30
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. So one other note that was made by Erwin during the presentation related to RINs, renewable identification numbers, and he noted that unlike biodiesel where the tax credit and renewable identification number prices often off set each other, and they won't capture as much of a tax benefit, from 45 c that there isn't doesn't at least appear to be at this point anything that's an offset in ethanol. So it's kind of a direct economic benefit to the ethanol plants. It'll be interesting to see how that moves basis going forward and how profitable these plants continue to be, I guess.
• 16:10
  Dan O'Brien: Well and and, to to me, you look at that, corn supply demand balance sheet. If you have this profitability issue coming in affecting domestic processing of US corn, that, you know, that that brings about DDG, and I'm I'm assuming that'll bring more bushels in in more corn bushels in into bioenergy production. You know, we'll have that'll affect the DDG market for livestock feeding and where that's located, particularly in the proximity of these most profitable plants, and, and probably puts puts us on a course for for crowding out in in competition, with regard to whether US corn will will, follow this profitability signal towards ethanol usage or or if we're able to, keep keep up the pace of exports that we now have, much less livestock feeding. So interesting days ahead in 2026 for for the corn and soybean markets, of course, and, here, these underlying demand issues are are really subtle and yet powerful drivers.
• 17:14
  Todd Gleason: And it does sound like a powerful driver, though, as you will admit, I think it is constrained by total capacity. Sure. And we run, what, at 85% at this point. Is that correct?
• 17:27
  Dan O'Brien: 85, 90. Yeah. It just depends which set of of USDA ERS numbers you look at. But, 85, 90%, at least with the last quarterly report from the from the USDA and their in energy monitoring, groups.
• 17:42
  Todd Gleason: The point is don't get as as excited as the numbers sound because capacity isn't quite there at this point to make it, move as fast as you might think it would. Hey. Thank you much, Dan. I appreciate it.
• 17:55
  Dan O'Brien: Thanks, Todd. Take care. Have a good Christmas.
• 17:57
  Todd Gleason: You too. Dan O'Brien is with Kansas State University Extension, joined us on this edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Medium. Make note that on Friday of this week, you'll hear all of Scott Irwin's presentation made at the farm assets conference, and then all next week, we'll bring you farm assets conference presentations from the full day's event. You'll want to make sure that you listen to those or you'll find them online at willag.org. Let's take a look at the weather forecast now.
• 18:42
  Don Day is here. He is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year. Hope you are looking forward to a great set of holidays.
• 18:50
  Don Day: I am and hope you are too.
• 18:51
  Todd Gleason: I am indeed. I actually like it when it's warm and the snow is not around. Guess that's gonna happen. But let's start, I think, in the Midwest, but we'll get to that in a moment. Let's start on the West Coast where it just appears it's gonna be a rough holiday week.
• 19:07
  Don Day: It will be. There's a very large, very moist storm system. It's a a little bit of an odd weather pattern quite frankly, but it's it's good news for California in a sense it's gonna bring significant snow to the Sierra Nevada, which will help out California snowpack. And there is gonna be three, four, five, six inches of rain falling in some parts of California. And this is a statewide event.
• 19:32
  This rain is also gonna spread into Nevada, parts of Arizona, Utah, and, we'll be at a real shot in the arm in terms of, some really good moisture. It's been a while since that part of the world has gotten some good precipitation, and they're gonna get one.
• 19:46
  Todd Gleason: In the valley, will it provide helpful precipitation for crops that are grown there in California?
• 19:53
  Don Day: Yeah. The Central Valley is some parts of the Central Valley are under a flood watch, so maybe too much of a good thing. But in terms of getting rain, getting that snow in the mountains for later use, this is gonna be a really big storm for them.
• 20:07
  Todd Gleason: So it is all about the snowpack. How about on the opposite side of the mountains, the eastern side, the side you're on? Do we have snowpack being generated there so far and will that be helpful, enough for the, plain states and parts of the Dakotas?
• 20:23
  Don Day: Well, it's really an interesting pattern because along and West Of The Continental Divide is where just about all the moisture will fall. And it's gonna be kind of a feast or famine for some of the central and northern rocky snowpack. Some will get some help, some others won't. And then you get East Of The Continental Divide out across the plains through the Midwest and then across the South and Southeastern parts of The United States, this specific storm is just pumping very mild air out ahead of it. So this is gonna lead to this very warm stretch of weather through the course of Christmas week.
• 20:58
  The exception is gonna be the Northeast. The Far Northeast part of The US is gonna have a white Christmas and some light snows in far northern areas of New England. Now after Christmas weekend, in fact, as we get into Monday and Tuesday of next week, do expect a dip in temperatures. We're gonna see a shot of Canadian air come in. So the week after Christmas is gonna start off a lot colder for a lot of the Midwest and the Upper Plain States that are going to enjoy this thaw.
• 21:25
  Todd Gleason: But it looks as if that doesn't last all that long. Is that right?
• 21:29
  Don Day: Maybe not. I will tell you this. What we're seeing on our weather charts is something that gives us extremely low confidence past seven days because I'll tell you this, we are gonna see another really big buildup of extremely cold air in Northwest Canada. Alaska is gonna go through some severe cold, and we've gotta keep an eye on that. That air mass can become unstable and on a whim the jet stream can decide to make a wiggle when we don't expect a wiggle.
• 22:00
  So we're confident to say that we've got some colder weather coming in early next week but after that let's take it one day at a time.
• 22:08
  Todd Gleason: K. Thanks much, Don. I appreciate it.
• 22:10
  Don Day: Thank you.
• 22:10
  Todd Gleason: You're welcome. Don Day is with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois. Public media is public radio for the farming world. Now starting today, now through January 5, that's Monday, we will not have agricultural programming on our home station with the exception of the closing market report in our commodity week programs, so be aware of that. And even those programs will be pretaped.
• 22:40
  They'll be from the farm assets conference if you missed it, and you'd like to hear it. Most of it should be airing on the radio stations you're listening to right now and or you can find it all up online at willag.org. That's willag.org, or just look for the closing market report in your favorite podcast application. You have a great winter break. I'm University of Illinois Extinction's, Todd Gleason.