Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Worlds LARGEST Exchange CONFIRMS THE BITCOIN PRICE SUPPRESSION IS OVER?! | EP 1425
Transcript
- 0:01While most people are positioning themselves for a
- 0:04bear market, 2 Bitcoin billionaires just said 2026 is
- 0:09going to be an insane year for Bitcoin and one of them even
- 0:15said the S word at Davos. What is the S word?
- 0:18Could we be seeing a Bitcoin super cycle begin this year?
- 0:23I don't know. Before you call me crazy, let's
- 0:26play the clip. I got a few clips for you guys,
- 0:28but I'm going to start with the first one with Kathy Wood, who
- 0:32thinks it's going to turn into $1,000,000 a coin.
- 0:35So whenever people ask that question, I always got to ask
- 0:37them what's the time frame you're looking at?
- 0:39If you're looking at today, tomorrow, or daily basis,
- 0:41there's no way I can predict. If you look at a 10510 year
- 0:45horizon, it's very easy to predict.
- 0:47We're going to go up if you look at a one year horizon, which is
- 0:51like where the most of the common common framework is 2026.
- 0:56I'm not sure you may be I think I have very strong feelings that
- 1:00you will probably be a super cycle be a super cycle 2026
- 1:03yeah, for Bitcoin, for Bitcoin. And what what super cycle to you
- 1:06means what what normally Bitcoin follows A4 year cycles
- 1:09historically. If you look at historic data
- 1:11like every four years, you know, there's a all time high and then
- 1:14there's a there's a drop. But I think this year, given the
- 1:17US being so pro crypto and every other countries kind of
- 1:20following, I do think we'll we will see this this we will
- 1:23probably break the four year cycle.
- 1:25Yeah, we got to go. But just start a OK, look, I'm
- 1:29not I'm as bullish as anyone. I'm still I'm I'm still on the
- 1:34fence on whether the full year cycle is still intact or not.
- 1:37But I do like the cause for super cycle coming from CZ
- 1:41again, world's largest exchange. I think he's been having a lot
- 1:44of conversations with people. I think this is one of those
- 1:47moments like sailor that they probably know something that we
- 1:51don't. So just taking this take on its
- 1:54surface again, also considering the platform that he's at, this
- 1:58is on the news at Davos. I think it's interesting when
- 2:03you just take what he said on on just the surface and what he
- 2:06said just in general. Now, I literally said the same
- 2:09thing to a friend yesterday. He's asking me like, yo, what's
- 2:12your price forecast for Bitcoin? I'm like, dude, you know, I
- 2:16don't know. I can't tell you what it's going
- 2:17to do tomorrow. Obviously, you know what I think
- 2:20it's going to do in five to 10 years from now, it's really up
- 2:24for probably up until April where I will be very convinced
- 2:28on where we are in the cycle. I need a little more
- 2:31information. I I need a little more time.
- 2:34What's very interesting though is usually January is when kind
- 2:39of the, you know, the tech companies are finally finishing
- 2:43their year. So you can think of January as
- 2:45like the end of Q4 for a lot of companies and we'll start to see
- 2:49a lot of capital get revamped into the economy around
- 2:52February, March itch, you know, so in a few months we'll know
- 2:56exactly what's going on in my opinion.
- 2:59But again, on the surface level, just just hearing what CZ saying
- 3:03again, if you don't know who that was, it's CZ from Binance
- 3:05or he's not at necessarily at Binance anymore.
- 3:08Again, he went to jail and and guys, if you watch this whole
- 3:11clip, there was some other crazy stuff he was saying about his
- 3:16recollecting his time in prison. You go look that clip up.
- 3:19I I can't play that here, but it was absolutely insane.
- 3:23I was laughing about it this morning.
- 3:24But anyways, you know, he's from Binance.
- 3:27He's basically known as Binance. And that's kind of why you you
- 3:31take it on the surface level and you're like, OK, that's
- 3:34interesting to see. Interesting take.
- 3:36He's not the first one to say this, obviously.
- 3:38And we have another clip saying something very similar.
- 3:41But before I go to the next clip, my more conspiratorial
- 3:47take here, the more kind of under the surface level here is
- 3:51when you understand the dynamics of Binance in general.
- 3:55So you can hear him say, yeah, I think it's a super cycle.
- 3:58But when you kind of look at the data of what's been going on on
- 4:02from Binance, it, I think he's kind of making the case that
- 4:06they're no longer going to be suppressing the Bitcoin price.
- 4:09This could be a signal that, hey, it's time to pack your
- 4:12bags, It's time to get ready. I think it's going to start
- 4:15running because again guys, This is why we always tell you every
- 4:19single day, just buy Bitcoin, Hoddle the Bitcoin, take it in
- 4:23the cold storage. Because if you are on these
- 4:25platforms, these crypto casinos, you are literally trying to beat
- 4:29the house. The house always wins.
- 4:32You are trading against the exchange.
- 4:34I think the dynamic that many people don't understand is, yes,
- 4:38technically when you're on an exchange, you know, you're,
- 4:41you're trading against other people.
- 4:43But if you've been in the game long enough, you, you really
- 4:46understand that you're not just trading against other people.
- 4:49Maybe with better information, you are trading against the
- 4:52exchange, you are trading against the house.
- 4:55They literally have an open book.
- 4:57They can see all of the trade, the, all the trades happening
- 5:01and they're basically you're trading against them and they
- 5:04have all the information. You can call me a conspiracy
- 5:07theorist all you want. You, you can say I'm, I'm a, you
- 5:09know, insane person here, but if you've been around long enough,
- 5:15that's kind of what we all know is happening.
- 5:18And they'll admit, or rather they will not admit that they
- 5:21are doing this. You can't convince me otherwise.
- 5:24I, I think it's very clear that the exchanges right now are
- 5:27trading against their customers. This is why most people lose
- 5:31trading and then further trading is it is a 0 sum game.
- 5:35Like if you are a trader, if you're a normie coming off the
- 5:38street and you think you're going to out trade, you know,
- 5:40the Larry Finks and the Jamie Diamonds of the world and even
- 5:43the CZS or Brian Armstrong's of the world.
- 5:45I think you have another thing coming for you.
- 5:47And that's where this next part kind of comes in is when you
- 5:51understand the numbers. There's been a lot of
- 5:53speculation, a lot of talk on how finance seems to be trading
- 5:58against everyone in the market right now, and they really are
- 6:01the ones driving the market currently.
- 6:03And this is where this next post comes in, which is I think if
- 6:08you really dig into it again, putting my Tinflow hat on, you
- 6:11know, you guys could take it or leave it.
- 6:14This is kind of what I've been seeing.
- 6:16There's been rumors or rather speculation for weeks and months
- 6:20that a lot of the price action we've been seeing has been
- 6:24coming from Binance. Now, this is a funny exchange,
- 6:27but it's really about the chart here.
- 6:29We have CZ and he goes basically after this clip aired, he goes,
- 6:34AI will make you jobless. Krypton will make you not need a
- 6:37job. Buy and hold now, retire in a
- 6:39few years. Raise hand if crypto allowed you
- 6:43to retire already. Not financial advice.
- 6:46I don't necessarily agree with this but the response is even
- 6:50funnier. And he goes CZ makes statements
- 6:53like this but forgets to tell everyone.
- 6:55Binance has been driving has been the driving factor for the
- 6:58most of bitcoins cell pressure since it made all time highs at
- 7:01$125,000. Almost seems like he's getting
- 7:05paid to make these statements while Binance continues to drive
- 7:08prices lower And then these exchanges are even.
- 7:11This guy goes all right it's it's another response.
- 7:13He goes quote but it's finance users not the exchange.
- 7:16He goes BS. We all know these exchanges
- 7:18trade their funds on their own platform.
- 7:21Why would they use another exchange?
- 7:23Plus we will never get access to their books so retail will never
- 7:26get the truth and supporters would just say it's their users.
- 7:29Now this is the funniest 1. He goes bro The type of guy who
- 7:33said this and then orders finance to liquidate every
- 7:36single position. Oh man, dude, you know, when
- 7:40you're objective about this, you got to admit it's actually
- 7:43hilarious out here. Like we're still in the Wild
- 7:46West. We are still early when you
- 7:48understand, like these exchanges are trading against their
- 7:50clients, they see what they're doing, they just liquidate them.
- 7:54Like I'm not laughing here because you know, people are
- 7:57losing money. I'm just laughing at everything.
- 8:00It dude, you got to love the quote UN quote crypto markets.
- 8:03It's still insane. It's still a lot of fun.
- 8:06Anyways, anyways, let me zoom in on this chart because I think
- 8:09this is really where the data is, is proven that Binance is, I
- 8:16mean, actively dumping the Bitcoin price here.
- 8:19We have basically since the November 6th dump in white, we
- 8:23have the Bitcoin price and you can see all of these exchanges
- 8:27here, the bottom one is Tether. So we won't we won't really look
- 8:30into that one, but it's all priced in Tether.
- 8:34And you can see there all the big exchanges are here.
- 8:37And literally Binance right here at Nance has sold more than all
- 8:42of the other exchanges combined and a dumping of $22.2 billion
- 8:47of Bitcoin on the exchange. And yeah, some of this other,
- 8:51you know, some of these other lines do connect pretty good
- 8:55with the price action. But every huge Binance dump is
- 8:59essentially lining up perfectly with the current Bitcoin price
- 9:03action. So when I hear CZ come out and
- 9:06say, yeah, I think we're going into a super cycle, this is kind
- 9:09of what I'm seeing. I'm like, bro, did he just
- 9:13finally admit that they're going to stop suppressing the Bitcoin
- 9:16price? I don't know.
- 9:18That's kind of what I heard. Obviously on the surface level,
- 9:22you're like, yeah, I'm totally cool with this idea that 2026 is
- 9:27the start of a super cycle. On the flip side, once you know
- 9:30that the deeper currents playing out from these exchanges, it
- 9:35sounds like he might have gotten tapped on the shoulder now even
- 9:40though he's not actually in control of Binance anymore.
- 9:43But I'm guessing the conversations are starting to
- 9:45develop where it's like, OK, at a certain point we are going to
- 9:48send this start to get the signal out there.
- 9:52If you know, you know it's going to go up.
- 9:55Now, that's the Binance, that's the CZ, that's the first
- 9:58billionaire. Now let's hear the second
- 10:00billionaire. Here is Michael Saylor.
- 10:02Recently, in the last couple of days, again, while everyone's
- 10:05been distracted by Davos, we have Saylor essentially also
- 10:10saying he thinks the full year cycle is over.
- 10:12He doesn't say super cycle, but he gives the factors for why he
- 10:16thinks that 2026 is going to be a good year.
- 10:21I think the four year cycles were most pronounced in the 1st
- 10:2512 years of the existence of Bitcoin because half of the
- 10:28Bitcoin was mined in the first four years and then 25% of the
- 10:31Bitcoin is mined in the next 4 years and then 12 1/2% of the
- 10:34Bitcoin is mined in the next 4 years.
- 10:36But then we got down to 6.25% of the Bitcoin.
- 10:41And so you can see that the amount of Bitcoin being mined
- 10:43and sold on the market by miners is is exponentially falling and
- 10:48the demand and the liquidity in the market is exponentially
- 10:50increasing. So at this point, the amount of
- 10:53Bitcoin being mined is, is becoming a second order issue.
- 10:56If you go at another 4 to 8 years, it'll be 1/3 order issue.
- 10:59The primary drivers in the market now our structural
- 11:03support from the ETF, the ETFs are big buyers.
- 11:06They didn't exist two years ago and and now they're massive
- 11:10buyers. Bitcoin treasury companies like
- 11:13ours become have become massive buyers.
- 11:15As I said, we raised something like 4044 to 45 billion in
- 11:19capital in the last two years. A third big driver will be
- 11:22banking support as the banks began to create credit against
- 11:28Bitcoin. For example, there's only
- 11:30there's only say 16 to $18 billion of Bitcoin that's mined
- 11:34every year for sale. Well, one bank like JP Morgan
- 11:38could create $18 billion worth of Bitcoin backed credit for
- 11:42their customers in one year. So as a big bank comes into the
- 11:47market and they begin to offer loans against Bitcoin or against
- 11:50Bitcoin ETFs, that will be the equivalent of an entire year of
- 11:54Bitcoin mining. And so really the big, the big
- 11:57structural development right now is mega banks in the world
- 12:02beginning to bank Bitcoin and all for credit against it.
- 12:05Look, I'm not the biggest fan of the Bitcoin credit meme, but I
- 12:10think he is is making the point, which is what I've been saying
- 12:14for a while, which is my bull thesis on why I also don't think
- 12:18we are going in a larger Bitcoin correction here.
- 12:24We literally have all of the tailwind working an hour benefit
- 12:27right now. Whether you love the
- 12:29institutions or not, whether you love the ETFs or not, whether
- 12:34you're going to give JP Morgan your Bitcoin for collateral.
- 12:37Whether you like Larry Fink going out to Davos and saying
- 12:40we're going to tokenize all the things and we need one
- 12:43blockchain that the world connects to so that we can't be
- 12:48as corrupt as we used to be. It it all is, I think,
- 12:52irrelevant to the point that everyone now is starting to get
- 12:57into a Bitcoin position or at the very least moving towards a
- 13:01Bitcoin position. Which is why I keep telling
- 13:04everyone on the show, off the show, that I fundamentally think
- 13:08things have changed since the BlackRock ETF launched, since
- 13:12all the institutions got into Bitcoin, since we're seeing a
- 13:16sovereign level infinite bid here, things are changing in
- 13:21real time. It's becoming very clear.
- 13:24And remember the conversation we had with Chris last week where
- 13:28he also agrees when the institutions came into Bitcoin,
- 13:32it fundamentally changed the Bitcoin game.
- 13:36I don't think Bitcoin has necessarily been Co opted on a
- 13:40base layer. I think Bitcoin still does what
- 13:42it does, but we are definitely being driven by the institutions
- 13:46and their appetite for Bitcoin. Again, I used to have this meme
- 13:50back in the day where it was, you know, the the Y axis was
- 13:56basically like rich people getting into Bitcoin.
- 13:58That's what really drives the price.
- 14:00And then the X axis is the amount of people holding
- 14:03Bitcoin. And that's what really, you
- 14:05know, lifts the Bitcoin price up and to the right.
- 14:09And I think this is where we are right now.
- 14:11The institutions have finally entered the Bitcoin space.
- 14:15They can buy so much Bitcoin that all of us measly plebs and
- 14:20laymen can't even come close to combined unless there's millions
- 14:24of us. They're driving the Bitcoin
- 14:27market right now. Yes, you could say it's been Co
- 14:30opted in terms of price. You could say maybe they're
- 14:33suppressing the Bitcoin price so that they get a better position.
- 14:36But the fundamental thesis of Bitcoin, I don't think has been
- 14:39broken. I I think it's still what we
- 14:41thought it was even how Finney in the early days was
- 14:44essentially saying this is the day we've been waiting for, for
- 14:47the institution's, all the banks, for everyone to embrace
- 14:50it. And Bitcoin transactions on the
- 14:52base layer are going to be as rare today as they are in the
- 14:56future, which means no one's really using it unless you are
- 14:59these mega institutions and you need a final settlement layer
- 15:03and we'll be transacting on layer twos or even layer threes
- 15:06or whatever. And I think this is what's
- 15:08happening yes on one level you're like OK, the cypherpunk
- 15:13roots perspective of everyone transacting in Bitcoin.
- 15:16Maybe that's not the road that Bitcoin is headed down to.
- 15:20But if you are holding Bitcoin in self custody, if you transact
- 15:24in Bitcoin, I think the the idea that Bitcoin's going to be used
- 15:30as money, I think it's still all in play.
- 15:33I think it's still all working out exactly as designed.
- 15:36Sailors making the case that all the ETF institutions, banks,
- 15:40everyone getting into Bitcoin is really what's going to break the
- 15:43four year cycle. I kind of agree with him, as
- 15:45much as it pains me to say that I agree with him.
- 15:47Hold on. I think things are fundamentally
- 15:51changing though right now. Currently I'm looking at the
- 15:55price and I'm like, you know, I'm not I'm not so bullish When
- 15:59you look at the charts, especially when you're looking
- 16:01at Bitcoin price in gold, it is starting to look like a bear
- 16:04markets playing out. It's starting to build out.
- 16:07I still need a little time to fully be convinced and
- 16:10vindicated, but I think it's interesting time.
- 16:13I think this is the most interesting time to be in
- 16:16Bitcoin, but I do I do want to comment on what comment that I
- 16:21saw earlier before I commented on on sailor someone was it was
- 16:27Ken Ken B because conspiracy my a try fact in regards to the
- 16:32exchanges trading against us. So look, whether you're bearish
- 16:37or bullish right now, I think it all defeats the purpose.
- 16:41You need to make sure that you are stuck in or rather you know,
- 16:46honed in and focused on what you want to do.
- 16:49If you are just trading Bitcoin based on whatever whim you have
- 16:53every day when you wake up, you are going to lose.
- 16:56You need a long term thesis here, which from our perspective
- 17:00is obviously accumulate more Bitcoin, hold it for the long
- 17:03term, not wake up on a whim. You see the price drop, you're
- 17:07like, oh, I need to sell out now or it's pumping now.
- 17:11I need to sell out and get my Lambo.
- 17:14That's not what this is about. Yes, you can do that.
- 17:17I'm not here to tell you what to do with your money, but you need
- 17:20to have a long term trading perspective.
- 17:23I hate to even use the T word there, but you need to
- 17:26understand what you are doing here so that you do not get
- 17:30shaken out, because I think a lot of people are definitely
- 17:33positioning themselves for, oh, we're going to have an even
- 17:35bigger drop. And I, I have a in the culture
- 17:39later on in the in the show. I, I'm going to make it even
- 17:41further case for why I don't think we're going to drop even
- 17:44even more. I think this sideways action
- 17:47we've been seeing is, is kind of where we are right now.
- 17:50At a certain point, we're going to break up to the to the
- 17:52upside. But again, what do I know?
- 17:55Who knows what's going to happen from the Trump administration.
- 17:57They might come out and do some other tariffs that are going to
- 17:59nuke and scare the markets. But I think from what we're
- 18:03seeing in gold and silver, which I'm going to cover a little
- 18:05later, because unprecedented stuff happening in precious
- 18:08metals right now, you're starting to, I don't know this,
- 18:12this should all start to make you feel like, OK, things are
- 18:15happening right now and I definitely need to position
- 18:18myself before the music stops. That's kind of what I, what I
- 18:22would be advising to everyone. You don't want to just like wake
- 18:25up in the morning and make your position.
- 18:28So This is why I'm, I'm really leaning into what CZ and Michael
- 18:33Saylor both saying they're both billionaires, both bitcoiners.
- 18:38You, you could probably argue that they aren't, they do come
- 18:40from it from different sides, but they are also basically
- 18:45saying the same thing at this point.
- 18:46Now on the sailor front, we all, we all understand why sailors
- 18:50saying what, what he's saying. If you, if you understand what
- 18:52he's been doing and how panicked he is in buying as much Bitcoin
- 18:56as possible, I think it's because he's having a lot of
- 18:58conversations with people and he knows what's coming down the
- 19:01pipeline. And in his mind, he's like,
- 19:03there's no way we are going to go down to, I don't know, 4,
- 19:068080 K. Now, that doesn't mean in the
- 19:08short term we don't see some kind of price volatility, but it
- 19:13means that we probably won't be down there for that long.
- 19:16We might see some kind of Black Swan drop and then we are off to
- 19:20the races. That's what I've been saying.
- 19:22Of course, CZ over at Binance shit coin extravagant and all
- 19:28the conversations he's having with nation states.
- 19:31I think when you understand the context of all this like C ZS
- 19:34talking to nation states, sovereign wealth funds, they're
- 19:38probably telling him I want to buy Bitcoin.
- 19:41Michael Saylor's talking to institutions and head funds
- 19:44managers. They're telling him they want
- 19:46Bitcoin again. We are in a new era where the
- 19:49institutions where the I hate to even use it, the smart money is
- 19:53trying to position themselves into Bitcoin.
- 19:56And here we are. Everyone in the chat, us on
- 19:58YouTube, everyone on Bitcoin Twitter has no.
- 20:01No idea what's going on. Everyone's, you know,
- 20:03infighting, everyone's saying we're going into a bear market.
- 20:07And I'm just like, I'm trying to get the signal through all the
- 20:11noise. And I'm like, from my
- 20:13perspective, I think they're going to pump the shit out of
- 20:16this thing. I think 2026 might be the year
- 20:20that everything fundamentally changes and we're in uncharted
- 20:24waters. Things are going up.
- 20:26All everything in the market I think might end up going up.
- 20:30I think we're going to follow what we saw in gold and silver.
- 20:33It's just there's an order of effects here, Bitcoin still at
- 20:39this moment. And there was a good video on
- 20:41Twitter, I don't know if you guys saw it, but there was a
- 20:43good video on Twitter from a former Black Rock fund manager.
- 20:47And he was basically talking about what was going on in gold
- 20:49and silver. And he was saying like, look, if
- 20:52you're being objective and you're looking at the markets
- 20:55gold and silver are running, they're basically the debasement
- 20:58trade right now. Bitcoin is a part of that
- 21:01conversation. But as of now, they haven't gone
- 21:04into Bitcoin. And I think that goes back to
- 21:06what I keep telling everyone, it's because they're comfortable
- 21:09with gold, they're comfortable with silver.
- 21:12Bitcoin is still farther on the risk scale there and they're not
- 21:16that comfortable with getting into Bitcoin yet, but it's very
- 21:19it's very normal for them, or at least the idea is very normal
- 21:22for them to be like, yeah, maybe I'm afraid of treasuries again.
- 21:26Japan right now in a lot of trouble.
- 21:29No one seems to want treasuries right now.
- 21:32They're looking for places to position themselves so that they
- 21:35are heads that so they feel protected.
- 21:38Their first step is obviously going to be into gold and
- 21:41silver. That's just like, be objective
- 21:44here. You're not going to see central
- 21:45banks be like, OK, we're afraid of holding all of our debt, your
- 21:49debt in this uncertain time. We're just going to go skip, you
- 21:52know, gold and go straight into Bitcoin.
- 21:54It's like it's not how it's going to work.
- 21:56But gold and arguably even silver and Bitcoin, we are all
- 22:01part of the same family. It is the hard money asset, hard
- 22:04money trade, the debasement trade.
- 22:07It is happening as we speak. It's just going to take a little
- 22:11time for that information to, or rather not even the information
- 22:14because I think the information's out there.
- 22:15It's going to take a little time for people to feel comfortable
- 22:19with putting a significant amount of their portfolio, their
- 22:22savings into Bitcoin, especially when they are so afraid.
- 22:28That's where we are right now. I'm hoping 2026 is going to be
- 22:32the year. I think it's going to be an
- 22:35interesting year. Let me see, Let me see might
- 22:40have to wait till 2027 yeah you know, you might be right I think
- 22:45and actually silver lining again, let me let me pull that
- 22:48up. I I wasn't going to talk about
- 22:50this, but you made a good .2027 might might be the year.
- 22:55So anyways, I brought up the Bitcoin and gold chart.
- 22:59I'm going to pull it up real quick.
- 23:00Even if you are on the side that Bitcoin is in a bear market,
- 23:08which if you're looking at the gold chart is is not not too
- 23:14crazy to to think. So here's the gold chart or
- 23:17Bitcoin priced in gold. This is the monthly chart.
- 23:20Don't don't mind my my lines here.
- 23:22It is what it is. Look at look at the dates here.
- 23:26So here is when Bitcoin in 2021 broke all time high, you know
- 23:32ran to all time high aligned perfectly with the Bitcoin price
- 23:34in dollars. It did a double top.
- 23:38You know what was double top? 2021 hit bottom 2023.
- 23:42Let's see, October 21 hit bottom December of 2022, So about a
- 23:48year dropping and then it started to make its run up April
- 23:5124th. Anyways, here's the last top
- 23:54October, December, you know November, October when Bitcoin
- 24:00was making a run, but then gold started to make its run.
- 24:03And so we kind of double top. If we're using this still 4 year
- 24:08cycle idea, which arguably you could say that gold and or
- 24:12Bitcoin price and gold still working out.
- 24:14That means we basically as we've been saying for a while might
- 24:18have been in a bear market all of 2025.
- 24:21And if that's the case, then 2026 we might be seeing the
- 24:26price start to gain some ground on gold.
- 24:28So it could be that 2027 is the year that we really start start
- 24:33ripping. But if we see some positive
- 24:35price action in 2026, I think that will basically put the four
- 24:40year cycle mean to rest finally. And I think we're all in
- 24:44agreement. I, I think it's, I think we're
- 24:46saying the same thing. Yes, I am another blah, blah
- 24:50guy. Dude, we know this.
- 24:52This is the entertainment show on Friday.
- 24:54This is me being bullish on Friday.
- 24:57Anyways, I got a clip for you guys in the numbers of Scott
- 25:01Besson at Davos, which I think is hilarious.
- 25:03And it really goes into the theme that I kind of took away
- 25:06from Davos. And then in the news, we're
- 25:08going to be talking about silver and gold.
- 25:11And then in culture, I'm going to make the case why I don't
- 25:14think further. We're going into a bear market.
- 25:17So I'll be right back, guys. See you in one minute.
- 25:21Today's episode is brought to you by Bitcoin Well Infinite.
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- 27:34today. Here we go.
- 27:36The current Bitcoin price is 90,000 and 760 dollars.
- 27:43It is a 28.1% discount from all time high and the current market
- 27:48cap. Hey, we're back to 1.81 trillion
- 27:50dude. The 1.8 trillion has really been
- 27:52holding strong. It doesn't feel as good as
- 27:55saying 2 trillion, but you know, kind of been holding on, you
- 27:59know, shouts out to that 1.81 trillion psychological number.
- 28:03And the block height is the only time that matters.
- 28:05The block height TikTok next block 933,546 OK, so I really
- 28:13feel, especially after yesterday's show that that we
- 28:21kind of put the, the Davos idea to rest right.
- 28:27I, I covered it on what was it Wednesday?
- 28:30I did a whole whole interview with Tom Luongo yesterday about
- 28:36Davos, why they've lost control, why they're still fighting
- 28:40there. There's been some pretty funny
- 28:41clips coming out of it, particularly Scott Besson in
- 28:46this interview here. It was like a post recap
- 28:48interview with I, I think it's with Politico.
- 28:51Yeah, it is. It's with Politico in Davos at
- 28:55the US House. You know, he was saying some
- 28:58unhinged funny things like Scott Besson is low key, actually
- 29:01hilarious. But this one I think sums up
- 29:05what my view is kind of viewing what I saw at the Davos
- 29:11conference, World Economic Forum.
- 29:13I, I didn't watch everything, you know, full Full disclosure,
- 29:15I didn't watch every speech. But from a lot of the clips, and
- 29:18obviously you could say they were cherry picked.
- 29:21I caught 1 theme here. And it was that it looked like a
- 29:28lot of the speeches coming out of the World Economic Forum was
- 29:32them backtracking on everything they've been saying for a long
- 29:35time. They used to say that we need to
- 29:38cut back on energy. Everything needs to be, you
- 29:41know, carbon neutral. We need to go green.
- 29:43Now. They're like AI data centers are
- 29:46the future, bro. We need more data centers.
- 29:48We need more energy. They used to say, you know,
- 29:52stuff on, on the weather, you know, climate.
- 29:56Now they're admitting to geoengineering like they used to
- 30:02talk about, hey, you know, you're going to own nothing and
- 30:06be happy. And Trump goes in there and he's
- 30:08like, we will not be a nation of renters.
- 30:10We got Howard Lutnick going in and being like pointing at
- 30:13everyone. Hey, Bros, like globalism has
- 30:17failed. Here's the facts.
- 30:19We have everyone kind of shitting on a lot of the stuff
- 30:24in the mandates coming out of EU.
- 30:25We have literally Germany admitting that their move
- 30:29towards everything but nuclear was an extreme failure.
- 30:33Like I don't think they have fully admitted defeat, but they
- 30:38are changing the narratives. And I don't know if you guys
- 30:41caught that Claw Schwab clip, which I was thinking about
- 30:44playing for you guys today, but he did a, not an officially
- 30:48sanctioned World Economic Forum interview, but he did kind of a,
- 30:52I don't know, a pregame interview for it.
- 30:55And he very clearly admitted that, hey, we have lost trust.
- 31:00People are losing trust in US. No one cares about our
- 31:02narratives anymore. And we need to do whatever we
- 31:04can to regain that trust. Larry Fink's opening statement
- 31:08as the new head of the World Economic Forum said the exact
- 31:11same thing. It's like, hey, you know, we've
- 31:13acid stripped planet Earth and now the plebes don't trust us.
- 31:17We need to regain that trust. Maybe capitalism has failed.
- 31:20And it's like, bro, you can't come out here and, and be like,
- 31:26forget about the last couple of years, guys.
- 31:28Hey, look, we were wrong. Forget about it.
- 31:31Well, you know, hey, we didn't, we didn't know what we were
- 31:33saying. Look, look, bro, trust us, we
- 31:38got this, OK? That's like the main.
- 31:40That's kind of the biggest take away that I got.
- 31:42But let's watch the Scott Besson clip because it's just, it's
- 31:46honestly, it's just kind of funny.
- 31:47You know, we've, we've seen the lack of energy security from
- 31:55this manic push for a net zero, which I think we've seen in some
- 32:02recent scientific journals have been pushed back.
- 32:05Even Bill Gates is saying the 1°, two degrees, 3°.
- 32:11I'm not sure it matters. If you look at what he's doing
- 32:15with his own money, I, it looks like he believes we're going to
- 32:18innovate our way out of the, any, any perceived climate
- 32:23problems. So I think that's on one side.
- 32:26And then again, I, I think this, I, I, I think we almost reached
- 32:31a Saturday Night Live moment a few years ago when it was,
- 32:36you're not going to own anything.
- 32:37You're going to eat insects. I mean, it, it was just the
- 32:40inmates were running the asylum of that.
- 32:42You're not into the bugs. Well, I, I, I can tell you the
- 32:46after a few days of Swiss German food, I may switch to bugs.
- 32:51Brutal, brutal, Mr. Secretary. Yeah, you guys got to watch
- 32:58that. That's that conversation Scott
- 33:00Besson was making, making some some funnies.
- 33:03He like low key. He's actually kind of funny.
- 33:06I, I'm, I've become kind of a fan of Scott Besset.
- 33:10But look, is that not a, a perfect kind of zeitgeist of, of
- 33:16what we saw at Davos this year? And then let's not even, we
- 33:19don't even have to like dive into all of the kind of on
- 33:24street interviews or the James O'Keefe stuff.
- 33:27Like I feel, I, I truthfully feel like they might not have
- 33:31another World Economic Forum next year.
- 33:33Now I know that's probably like the craziest thing.
- 33:35I'll, I'll say on the show. I know that's a stretch, but
- 33:38after this year, it's hard to believe that they're going to do
- 33:43another clown show next year. Like this was top tier bread and
- 33:47circus. Whether they meant it or not, it
- 33:50was a clown show. It it's hard to see how they're
- 33:53going to come back next year and be like, we have all the
- 33:56authority here. Like trust us bro.
- 33:58But he said it. He said it perfectly.
- 34:00You know the they will own nothing and be happy.
- 34:03They will eat the bugs. You know, you will live in a 15
- 34:07minute city. Like all of that's been
- 34:09completely wiped from memory. Now, like I said, the AI greens
- 34:14popping up, they're like, we need more energy, you know,
- 34:16like, hey, look, we were wrong. We need more energy.
- 34:20We need more data centers. We need to make better cat
- 34:23videos on, on Twitter because this AI thing is taking over the
- 34:27world. I, I think fundamentally most of
- 34:32the narratives that have ever came out of Davos, I, I think
- 34:36they're, they're completely naked Now.
- 34:38The real kind of question from here is what are the new
- 34:42narratives going to be and how do we move forward from here?
- 34:45Because from my perspective, obviously I think it's what
- 34:49we're doing. It is the Bitcoin standard.
- 34:52It is proof of work. It is a world built on property
- 34:57rights, a world that fights against inflation versus, you
- 35:00know, a world that takes a little more personal freedom,
- 35:02which is probably the biggest ask out of all of this, versus a
- 35:06top down structure where the elites fly on, you know, the
- 35:10private jets and then scold us about our energy use is like
- 35:15that. I think the facade is is really
- 35:18crumbling in real time now. One of the probably the most
- 35:21interesting trolls that I saw on Twitter was the whole, I don't
- 35:27know if you guys saw, but like Katy Perry is dating Justin
- 35:30Trudeau now and literally no one cared what Justin Trudeau was
- 35:34saying. And she's out here talking about
- 35:37like the environment and energy use and stuff.
- 35:39And did everyone forget that she literally did a supposed space
- 35:45tourism exploration with Jeff Bezos, which I'm sure is
- 35:49probably worse for the environment than anything all of
- 35:52us have done combined. And yet she's out here with
- 35:55Justin Trudeau. Like, listen to me.
- 35:57I'm a pop singer that just went to space for for tourism.
- 36:01And you got to watch your energy use.
- 36:04It's just like the narratives, the, the, the rhetoric.
- 36:08It does seem like it has collapsed on its own weight now.
- 36:12I don't think it's going to be completely over.
- 36:14I think they are going to fight even harder.
- 36:17And the backlash might be even worse.
- 36:19And even the social media censorship might become even
- 36:22worse. But it does seem like like that
- 36:26old narrative is is completely out the window.
- 36:29And remember, Larry Fink was one of the leading charges on ESG
- 36:33narratives. Completely out of the playbook
- 36:36now. Now he's head of the World
- 36:38Economic Forum. I didn't hear too much stuff
- 36:40about ESG narratives this year. It's it's a new time now I'm, I
- 36:45don't have the as much faith as maybe like the average person in
- 36:48what the world. If what?
- 36:50Let me let me pull that back. I don't think the average person
- 36:52even knows what the World Economic Forum is.
- 36:55But I don't have as much faith in the quote UN quote elites at
- 36:58the World Economic Forum, like the people that attend it to
- 37:01actually meaningfully change the world for the positive.
- 37:04But I do think this is positive if the narratives are shifting,
- 37:08if they're collapsing, I think that gives us time for us to
- 37:13start to spread the message. And people might be more, I
- 37:16don't want to stay awake, but more ready to hear an
- 37:19alternative. And I, I think, I think it's all
- 37:22positive. I think, I hate to say it, but
- 37:24you know, I think we really might be winning.
- 37:27Anyways, let's go into the news. We're going to talk about
- 37:33precious metals. I want to give a shout out to
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- 40:06All right, guys, you're freaking out about the space comet.
- 40:10As you guys know, I am a globe card.
- 40:12I believe in space. OK, maybe that's one of my many
- 40:17faults, but chill out. Legit, OK?
- 40:21Anyways, there is, I think, a huge saga going on in precious
- 40:26metals right now, and it's really, I think, exemplified by
- 40:32what's going on with silver currently.
- 40:34So silver, actually, I was joking this morning and I'll
- 40:38throw out the troll first. I was like, man, it really
- 40:42should have gone all in on silver.
- 40:44Like the Wall Street Bets guys were saying the silver squeeze.
- 40:47The silver squeeze did finally happened.
- 40:51It just took them a couple of years.
- 40:53Man. They were so right.
- 40:54Man, they were so right. All right.
- 40:56Anyways, if you've been watching what's going on in the silver
- 40:59markets, silver just broke $100 per oz for the first time ever.
- 41:07So this was the chart this morning.
- 41:09I'll pull up, I'll pull up the, you know, the current chart.
- 41:12But if you recall what yesterday's podcast was about,
- 41:17you know, the the Davos City of London stuff, the sterling
- 41:22pound, you know, silver pound, it really, I think all connect,
- 41:27especially when you connect the gold price, which is also
- 41:31basically at all time high. It might silver.
- 41:34Yeah. Well, that was the mean that
- 41:36silver and gold were going to pass 500 or $5100 at the same
- 41:40time. It didn't really play out
- 41:42exactly like that. But silver or gold is still
- 41:45pumping. But you're starting to see that
- 41:49people are very clearly not wanting to hold government debt
- 41:55or Treasuries, as is exemplified in Japan right now.
- 41:59People are dropping Japanese debt like hotcakes.
- 42:01Bond yields are spiking. It's really not a good sign for
- 42:06the global economy. Again, you go to Japan or as
- 42:09people call it, the yen carry trade.
- 42:11You go to Japan, you get really cheap debt.
- 42:12You invest that everywhere else. Well, now that debt isn't so
- 42:15cheap and it looks like they're making wholesale changes in
- 42:20Japan right now to try to figure out how to dampen the bonds,
- 42:24bond yields right now. So all of this is combined
- 42:27currently, which is essentially saying that the debasement trade
- 42:31is happening in real time. People do not want Treasuries.
- 42:35They do not want government debt.
- 42:36They do not want Fiat currencies.
- 42:38Unless you have no idea what's going on and you're just, you
- 42:41know, living paycheck to paycheck and you think the
- 42:42dollar is a good way to store your value basically because you
- 42:45don't have that much value. So you're just like, I got this
- 42:48much money. I need this much money to
- 42:50survive. I don't even have any excess.
- 42:52It's a vicious cycle. But if you are a, I don't know,
- 42:57a, an institutional manager, if you are someone with deep
- 43:00pockets, if you're a trader, someone that that actually holds
- 43:03real capital, you're looking at what's going on in gold, silver
- 43:06and bond yields right now. And this is making you feel like
- 43:11you probably need to find a chair before the music stops.
- 43:16Most people are still comfortable with gold and silver
- 43:18hentai silver is, you know, going to $100 right now.
- 43:22And I'll pull up the the real. Actually, I'm going to pull up
- 43:26this one because the whole story isn't so much that silver is
- 43:30hitting $100 in the US, is that there's a huge spread between
- 43:35what we are selling or buying our silver at currently in the
- 43:39US and then what's going on in Shanghai or in China right now.
- 43:43And here you can see the Shanghai silver has exploded to
- 43:46a record 112. I think it's actually higher
- 43:49now, doubling since November. And you can see the spread is
- 43:53just starting to go nuts. So there is a huge spread
- 43:56between what's going on in the West and what's going on in the
- 43:58East right now surrounding silver.
- 44:01And it looks like what Tom Luongo was saying yesterday
- 44:06about whether you want to call it the Trump administration or
- 44:10the entire world is calling the City of London's bluff right
- 44:13now. And since they're still
- 44:15technically somehow in control of silver because of the silver
- 44:20pound, everyone is trying to onshore their silver.
- 44:24There's not that much silver going around and you're starting
- 44:28to see the price spike up so that people can get their
- 44:31deliveries of their silver. From what I'm seeing and
- 44:33hearing, it looks like there is really not that much silver to
- 44:37be had right now. And then you also add gold in
- 44:40there, which is, it's just like the debasement trade, precious
- 44:44metals, hard money right now it is the IT is the trade.
- 44:48That's what anyone that is smart knows what's going on is doing
- 44:53is they're trying to secure something that's going to store
- 44:56their value. Now here is the current silver
- 44:59price. I have it on the monthly just
- 45:01because it looks absolutely ridiculous and it is currently
- 45:05$101.11. So it's still running, Silver's
- 45:10still running. It's going absolutely parabolic.
- 45:13I don't want to say that it's going to retrace yet because who
- 45:16knows how high it's going to go. But I think anyone that looks at
- 45:21a chart like this, it it just like intuitively knee jerk
- 45:26reaction. You're just like, that is
- 45:27totally not a sustainable rally. At some point, whatever goes up
- 45:31has to go down. And you're you're seeing right
- 45:34now the silver squeeze, the Wall Street bets silver squeeze.
- 45:38It's finally happening. It's just a couple of years
- 45:40late, Which also kind of reminds me, did you guys see that
- 45:44GameStop is selling all their Bitcoin right now?
- 45:48They, like, you know, got caught up in the hype.
- 45:52They're selling a lot of the majority of their, the majority,
- 45:55if not all of their Bitcoin right now.
- 45:57I'm just wondering like are they, he's selling silver right
- 46:03now? Did the GameStop silver Wall
- 46:06Street bets meme play out a couple of or when, when, when
- 46:11was that? Was that four years later?
- 46:14Is that what we're going to be doing?
- 46:16Are we going to be sitting here for years?
- 46:17Like it's going it's going to go to 100K, It's going to go to 200
- 46:21K soon anyways. Sorry, I change it, but I do
- 46:25want to, before I show you the gold, the gold markets,
- 46:28actually, I'll show you the golden market and then I'll read
- 46:30this tweet again. Here's the golden price.
- 46:32It's currently at all time high. It's $4982.
- 46:37Everything's like it's going to 500 or $5000 probably at some
- 46:41point. I don't know if it's going to be
- 46:42today, could be next week, but the fact we are seeing gold go
- 46:47to 5K, silver go to $100, bond yields start to explode, which
- 46:53is essentially people are selling bonds and the only way
- 46:57to incentivize them to sell it is if the bond yields go up.
- 47:01But if the bond yields go up too much, then the Fiat implodes.
- 47:06And it's not just what happens in Japan.
- 47:09It's not like we could just be like, oh, it they're on a small
- 47:11island, it doesn't matter what they do.
- 47:12No, they are intricately connected to every global
- 47:17economy in the world. So if Japan blows up, there's
- 47:21going to be a lot of problems everywhere.
- 47:23It's, it's really going to ripple into the global economy.
- 47:26So this is all saying to me that the hard money debasement trade
- 47:31is in full force. I'm not going to say 'cause I, I
- 47:35said it before and I think by now I'm, I'm like kind of wrong.
- 47:38Maybe I'm just early, but I'm not going to say that some of
- 47:40that is going to, you know, go into Bitcoin yet.
- 47:45But at a certain point, we do know it's going to do that.
- 47:47Or rather, as people slide down the risk scale, it will
- 47:51eventually end up in Bitcoin. So this is where James Lavish
- 47:56comes in and I really like this tweet.
- 47:59And I think this is like the perfect, you know, bow tie to
- 48:02this conversation. And he goes, are you paying
- 48:05attention? Gold is up roughly 80% in one
- 48:08year. Platinum is up 175% and silver
- 48:12up and eye watering 200%. Plus in one year, the debasement
- 48:17trade is not just on, it is ripping people's faces off.
- 48:21And so the next question is not if, but when does Bitcoin resume
- 48:26higher? And here you go, one year
- 48:28percentage gains versus the US dollar.
- 48:30Gold, platinum, silver. It's happening.
- 48:35You know, it's like it's, it's literally the opposite mean
- 48:38guys, it's happening, it's happening.
- 48:39It's currently happening. Now going further for all the
- 48:42salty people out there, you know, for all the silver bugs,
- 48:47gold bugs that are like pointing the fingers and telling
- 48:50Bitcoiners you're an idiot. No one wants to buy Bitcoin.
- 48:54We're still doing really good here.
- 48:56So he goes for those claiming that Bitcoin has quote already
- 48:58failed to protect against debasement, I would suggest you
- 49:01zoom out a bit. Bitcoin is still only second to
- 49:04silver in the debasement trade in the last five years.
- 49:07Silver just got its run Bitcoin still holding up.
- 49:11So guys we're still in the race. We are still in the race, think
- 49:15it's only amount a matter of time until we start to see
- 49:21Bitcoin start to RIP as well. It it it is all happening
- 49:27exactly as designed now. I think what you need to do is
- 49:36kind of look at this a little differently.
- 49:40Yes, you could sit here and get mad and wonder why Bitcoin isn't
- 49:44running yet. And I thought the Bitcoin thesis
- 49:46was a debasement trade. I thought it was a hedge against
- 49:49Fiat collapse. You know, Bitcoin should be
- 49:52running like gold and silver. You could sit here and do that.
- 49:57I think the more productive view of this is, hey, we still get
- 50:02Bitcoin on a 28% discount when we know what's going to happen,
- 50:07we know where it's going to lead to.
- 50:09We know what is happening on a high level view of what's going
- 50:13on in the economy. We have all the signals showing
- 50:16us that this is exactly happening.
- 50:18It's no longer just a thesis. It this is what's happening.
- 50:22That's like the main point. This is happening now.
- 50:25The debasement trade is finally on.
- 50:28It is happening and you get to hold and buy Bitcoin at a 28%
- 50:33discount like this is this is the easiest thing to do possible
- 50:39with all the information that we have available to us.
- 50:42All you have to do is buy some Bitcoin and wait it out.
- 50:47Honestly like this is the best time to be buying Bitcoin.
- 50:52I think it's only a matter of time.
- 50:53Will it be in 2026? I'm not sure will it be in 2027?
- 50:59The odds are are probably better for but it's to no brainer.
- 51:05It's happening right now. It's on.
- 51:08You guys are locked in. We're locked in when we've been
- 51:12making the OR rather I've been making the case on the show for
- 51:15I believe probably over a year that this was going to happen.
- 51:19It happened a little quicker than I thought it was and it
- 51:22happened a lot more aggressive than I thought it would, but
- 51:27it's happening right now. It's going to happen with
- 51:30Bitcoin trust. It's going to RIP.
- 51:32It's going to RIP anyways. Let's keep it moving.
- 51:37Hold on. Come on, guys.
- 51:40Yes, honestly, Chris, this is this is like the biggest take
- 51:44away. Most of the world still sees
- 51:47gold as a flight to safety. We're still so early in terms of
- 51:51global Bitcoin adoption. Like, we're still the nut cases
- 51:54at the table, guys. Yes, the institutions are
- 51:57starting to look at us like, oh, maybe those kids aren't so
- 52:00crazy. Maybe there is something to this
- 52:02blockchain thing. We're just like, we're literally
- 52:06just chilling, you know, Like, where, where, where the freaks
- 52:11and geeks at the lunch table, like doing all the crazy stuff.
- 52:15And they're like, yeah, I don't know if I want to go sit at that
- 52:17table yet, but they seem like they're having a lot of fun
- 52:21anyways, and let's keep it moving.
- 52:25Wait. Oh, yeah.
- 52:26Yeah. Sorry.
- 52:27Sorry, bro. Sorry, bro.
- 52:29Yeah. Even copper is ripping.
- 52:30Literally all the commodities are ripping right now.
- 52:33It it's like, could it be any more obvious is really what I've
- 52:38been what I'm saying right now? Like, could it be any more
- 52:40obvious that this is exactly what's happening?
- 52:44I really don't think so. So have a little patience.
- 52:47Lower the time preference. Keep stacking the coin.
- 52:50Keep stacking the corn. We are literally, Yeah,
- 52:55seriously, Ron, for reals. We are literally still being
- 52:58laughed at by central bankers at Davos and everything that they
- 53:03built their their world view on their finances on is like
- 53:07burning in the background. Everything is pumping and
- 53:11they're laughing at us like, huh, You guys think you guys
- 53:14think you guys are competition to central bank money.
- 53:17We're like bro, like it's over for you.
- 53:21We just got to chill out. We just got to wait and stack
- 53:24coin anyways, I I've been ranting a little long on this,
- 53:26so last commercial break I'll be right back.
- 53:30I. Want to give a shout out to our
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- 55:20freedom. All right, guys, I'm going to
- 55:28wrap up today's show with a little bit of some more opium
- 55:34for you guys. It is the Friday show.
- 55:37You know me, I, I stay bull tarted.
- 55:40I'll have a little fun here. I saw this tweet.
- 55:44I, I really, I really like James Van Stratton.
- 55:47He's, I think really giving a lot of good signal here.
- 55:51He tweeted this one. Is this the right one?
- 55:55Yes, I'll, I'll zoom in a little bit here.
- 55:57But he goes a 75% drawdown is inconsistent with a market where
- 56:03volatility has structurally collapsed for three years and
- 56:05this cycle is operating under a fundamentally different market
- 56:09structure. So I made the case in the
- 56:11beginning that I also believe this is a fundamentally
- 56:14different market structure, AKA the institutions are here, they
- 56:19are, you know, messing with with the, the spot price here in in
- 56:24whatever way you want to say that, whether it's just paper
- 56:27Bitcoin, whether it is pure price manipulation, naked
- 56:31shorts, whatever, whatever mechanism, they fundamentally
- 56:34have changed the game and they're laughing at us here.
- 56:36You know, they're like like these kids, these amateurs, we
- 56:41just come in and do Wall Street things and they're getting
- 56:43cooked. Anyways, let's look at the chart
- 56:45though. It is very interesting.
- 56:47So here we got Bitcoin volatility on Bit Mex.
- 56:51You can see the volatility has absolutely been neutered, which
- 56:56is what we've been hearing coming out of Sailor for over a
- 57:01year now. Not only just Sailor, but all of
- 57:03the big Bitcoin asset managers or digital asset managers,
- 57:08they've all been saying a very similar idea that since the
- 57:12institutions got in, we should expect less volatility in the
- 57:16market. Now does that mean volatility is
- 57:17going to be completely gone? I don't think so.
- 57:21What it means is they have been able to neuter Bitcoin
- 57:25volatility for for better or for worse, which means yes, maybe,
- 57:31maybe if it doesn't get more volatile to the upside, excuse
- 57:34me, we're going to not see crazy parabolic runs.
- 57:39It also means we're probably not going to see huge bear market
- 57:43draw downs either, which from a trade off level, I'm probably
- 57:48more OK with. I I still need my dopamine.
- 57:51I still need the number go up for me to feel anything in life.
- 57:53I'm dead inside. I got a tiny Grinch heart and
- 57:56it's it's just drying up even more.
- 57:58I I need, I need some, I need some number number go up
- 58:01nourishment. But you can see the data is
- 58:04showing us the volatility has been completely cooked.
- 58:07It's neutered. That hasn't been there.
- 58:09So that's like the first case of we're not probably not going to
- 58:13go. You know what, wouldn't he going
- 58:14to say 30 K, 40K maybe 58 K maybe.
- 58:19So that's kind of like, I don't think we're dropping more.
- 58:22Yeah, maybe there'd be some some volatility on the short term,
- 58:26but I don't I don't see it dropping to some crazy levels
- 58:31where we're all going to be freaking out and losing our
- 58:34shit. Now we have brought this up
- 58:37before and bringing this back up.
- 58:40It is very interesting that these two charts look almost
- 58:44identical. Again, here's the Bitcoin price
- 58:46with the ISM or the business cycle.
- 58:50And basically around the exact same time, it's been neutered.
- 58:57And essentially for you guys looking at this, when the ISM
- 59:01cycle is below 50, it's contraction.
- 59:04When it's above 50, it's expansion, which means, you
- 59:07know, more liquidity, people feel better, people spend money,
- 59:13people want to buy risk assets and we haven't seen that since
- 59:162023. So I think like combining these
- 59:19two, these two charts here, they look damn near identical.
- 59:23Ever since 2023, there's been nothing in the market, hence why
- 59:27even though Bitcoin went to all time high at 126 K in October in
- 59:31the face of literally no volatility and no expansion on
- 59:36the business cycle, it's quite incredible to be honest.
- 59:40And so once we do finally get some expansion again, whether
- 59:45it's from money printer for the election, whether it's Jerome
- 59:49Powell money printing, whether it's the Japanese economy money
- 59:53printing, whether it's the Chinese money printing, the
- 59:56expansion I think brings back all of the fun in Bitcoin.
- 1:00:01And the biggest take away is. Bitcoin again, for better or
- 1:00:08worse, since the institutions are here, it is growing up.
- 1:00:13It has grown up. It is a macro asset now.
- 1:00:16It is in the macro, larger macro conversation, which is why it
- 1:00:21has been kind of correlated to, you know, the stock market to
- 1:00:27NASDAQ to S&P 500 to wow, excuse me and choked on my my saliva to
- 1:00:34what Trump says about tariffs. The very people, the new people,
- 1:00:39the new investors that change the Bitcoin market structure,
- 1:00:43the institutions, they look at this stuff and this is what they
- 1:00:47base their trades are on. So if they are scared of
- 1:00:52whatever macro factors, first thing they do is not only do
- 1:00:57they sell their most saleable product, their most saleable
- 1:01:00investment, but they start to sell their most risky
- 1:01:04investments. And for better or worse, guys,
- 1:01:07Bitcoin is still considered a risky asset for us.
- 1:01:11It's it's a risk off asset for most people, it's still a risk
- 1:01:16on asset. It's still treated like a high
- 1:01:19beta tech stock, which just means, you know, like if you're
- 1:01:23going to get returns, when you get returns on tech, you
- 1:01:26probably get a, a higher return on Bitcoin.
- 1:01:29So people are contracting right now as the data's showing us,
- 1:01:33they're consolidating into the things that they already know,
- 1:01:36which is gold and silver or other commodities.
- 1:01:40And at a certain point, once we start to get that expansion,
- 1:01:44which you could argue maybe the Trump administration's working
- 1:01:46towards that way, the game's back on right now.
- 1:01:51It's like the car, you know, it's like the the the trash
- 1:01:55truck moving through the street and we're all on pause.
- 1:01:58And once it finally clear, once we clear out all the trash out
- 1:02:02of the system, it's game on, boys.
- 1:02:05Who knows how long it's going to take.
- 1:02:07But that's my theory. I'm sticking to it.
- 1:02:10So here we are. Let's see.
- 1:02:16All right, Ron, I I hear you. I hear you about the the ads.
- 1:02:20OK, let me see. There was a good one here.
- 1:02:23My boy, My boy. It's so over.
- 1:02:28I I'm not going to lie. I was joking this morning.
- 1:02:31It's so over. I was looking at the silver
- 1:02:32chart. I'm like, it's so over.
- 1:02:34I should have bought silver. Oh, man.
- 1:02:40All right, all right, all right, guys.
- 1:02:44Anyways, anyways, I I could sit here all day, but hey, it's
- 1:02:47Friday. Let's just just stack some
- 1:02:52stats, have a good weekend, eat some good food, call your loved
- 1:02:56ones, all that good stuff. We made it through another week.
- 1:02:59What is this is this third week of the year 3 of 52 down was it?
- 1:03:06I think it's 3 of 52 down. We got a long ways to go, boys.
- 1:03:11We got a long ways to go. All right, man, I will see you
- 1:03:17guys on Monday. I don't know what the schedule
- 1:03:21is going to be like next week. Nico may or may not be back.
- 1:03:24I have no clue. All all you all you got to know
- 1:03:28is I will be here, OK? I'll be here with whoever shows
- 1:03:33up with me. A fourth week, 4th week, OK 4th
- 1:03:40week of 52 Still got a long ways to go.
- 1:03:45Guys. We still got a long ways to go.
- 1:03:48No meme review dude, I am the meme now.
- 1:03:51I'm The Walking meme. The whole show was a meme.
- 1:03:53If you know, you know. All right guys, peace out.
- 1:03:56I will see you guys on Monday. Till then it's been your boy
- 1:04:01Opti. Have a good weekend.
- 1:04:03I love you guys. Peace Today's episode was
- 1:04:07brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a Bitcoin only
- 1:04:10platform on a mission to enable financial independence.