The case for and against AGI by 2030 (article by Benjamin Todd)
More and more people have been saying that we might have AGI (artificial general intelligence) before 2030. Is that really plausible?
This article by Benjamin Todd looks into the cases for and against, and summarises the key things you need to know to understand the debate. You can see all the images and many footnotes in the original article on the 80,000 Hours website.
In a nutshell:
Four key factors are driving AI progress: larger base models, teaching models to reason, increasing models’ thinking time, and building agent scaffolding for multi-step tasks. These are underpinned by…
The skinny
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