Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / Texans vs Chiefs NFL DFS Showdown | Week 14 SNF | Picks, Plays & Process

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Texans vs Chiefs NFL DFS Showdown | Week 14 SNF | Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:09
Speaker 1: Ball system's going clear the left?
0:40
Speaker 2: What is going on ship at Nation YouTube station?
0:43
Speaker 3: Back here Sunday night football game Week fourteen, and uh hey,
0:48
Speaker 3: this is a pretty big one here.
0:49
Speaker 2: Chiefs look looking less than optimal to make the playoffs.
0:54
Speaker 3: I'll just say that roughly about a thirty seven percent
0:57
Speaker 3: chance last I looked to make the playoff. Here have
1:00
Speaker 3: a big game with Houston coming to Arrowhead Sunday night weather.
1:05
Speaker 2: It looks to be kind of crappy here.
1:07
Speaker 3: Kansas City three and a half point home favorites forty
1:09
Speaker 3: one and a half is the total.
1:11
Speaker 2: Pretty gross game here.
1:12
Speaker 3: We got some injuries to the offensive line for Kansas City,
1:16
Speaker 3: which could lead to Mahomes running like a headless chicken
1:20
Speaker 3: back there behind the line of scrimmage with this front
1:22
Speaker 3: seven for the Houston Texans.
1:24
Speaker 2: We'll do our rest to break it all down here.
1:26
Speaker 3: Ham not one of the better games, but safe to
1:29
Speaker 3: say I think the last two weeks pretty close to.
1:33
Speaker 2: Nail the nuts and was right there.
1:36
Speaker 3: Zach Ertz did it again for me last Sunday against
1:39
Speaker 3: those Denver Broncos. That was nice to see. But what
1:42
Speaker 3: do you see here? Bring you in happy Sunday man?
1:45
Speaker 2: How are we doing.
1:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, AFC playoffs start tonight, loser league TWN match in essence,
1:50
Speaker 4: in my opinion, so one of these teams will not
1:54
Speaker 4: make the playoffs. Maybe both may not play make the
1:56
Speaker 4: playoffs even they win. And if this is a rematch
2:00
Speaker 4: of the actual playoffs either last year or two years
2:03
Speaker 4: ago when that guy shoved the special teams coach coming
2:06
Speaker 4: off the field. So yeah, it should be an interesting game.
2:09
Speaker 4: Both defenses, I think have the upper hand in this game.
2:13
Speaker 4: Low's scoring, as you alluded to a it's cold, be
2:15
Speaker 4: got good defenses, that's why you got the forty one
2:17
Speaker 4: point total. Yeah, looking forward to breaking it all down.
2:20
Speaker 4: I don't expect many fireworks tonight, So we'll see where
2:23
Speaker 4: we can find an edge.
2:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see where we can find an edge here
2:27
Speaker 2: for sure.
2:29
Speaker 3: And yeah, two good defenses here, and that's going to
2:31
Speaker 3: be a talking point when we do get to.
2:34
Speaker 2: The plays on the slate, especially in the flex.
2:37
Speaker 3: Not really sure how much defenses are going to come
2:38
Speaker 3: into play in the captain position, but at just fifty
2:41
Speaker 3: four hundred for the Texans D six k for the
2:44
Speaker 3: Chiefs D, you could potentially look there. Probably not something
2:47
Speaker 3: that I'm gonna do here, takes us right into the captain. Obviously,
2:50
Speaker 3: we're doing this Sunday morning around eight thirty Central Time
2:53
Speaker 3: in the Lord's time zone here, so ownership hasn't been
2:56
Speaker 3: really updated, but I would have to assume, just based
2:59
Speaker 3: on these projections alone, it's got to be Patrick Mahomes
3:03
Speaker 3: of the Chalk up Top, no surprise, in a must
3:06
Speaker 3: win game where he's probably gonna have to rely on
3:08
Speaker 3: his legs a little bit more as well. Rashi Rice
3:12
Speaker 3: Nico Collins are gonna be probably the three guys that
3:15
Speaker 3: command the most.
3:16
Speaker 2: Ownership up top, rightfully, so for a good reason.
3:18
Speaker 3: What do you see here from the captain position Ham
3:20
Speaker 3: that you're looking to to go in? A?
3:24
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's uh, you know, it's it's the big boys
3:27
Speaker 4: up front. Let's just talk about him and I'll go
3:29
Speaker 4: not I'll just go by Price. I mean, Rashie, Rice's
3:33
Speaker 4: a you know, they're obviously their number one receiver. The
3:35
Speaker 4: thing I like about him too, and this matchup is
3:37
Speaker 4: that Andy Reid Mahomes they're no idiots, right, they know
3:41
Speaker 4: they're gonna have to get the ball out quick. Tray
3:42
Speaker 4: smith Less, that's doubtful did miss last week. He's one
3:45
Speaker 4: of their best interior offensive linemen. Uh so what that
3:48
Speaker 4: means more quick short throws in my opinion to Raschie Rice.
3:51
Speaker 4: And when what Rasche Rice gets it, he can do
3:54
Speaker 4: a lot with it. So you know, if you're talking
3:56
Speaker 4: about a low scoring game where he racks up, say
3:58
Speaker 4: ten catches, I think that that's a great spot. I'm
4:01
Speaker 4: interested to hear your take on Mahomes. I don't necessarily
4:04
Speaker 4: love Mahomes in this matchup. You talked about that front seven.
4:07
Speaker 4: We saw what they did to Josh Allen a couple
4:09
Speaker 4: of weeks ago. Uh, now we have the elements, So man,
4:13
Speaker 4: this this Texans defense, they are for real as we saw.
4:18
Speaker 4: And then c J Stroud No interest in CJ Shroud.
4:22
Speaker 4: I don't know what if you have any interest in
4:23
Speaker 4: him up top. He's regressed pretty pretty pretty badly this year.
4:28
Speaker 4: That Chiefs defense is no slouch either, got the elements,
4:32
Speaker 4: got spags out there dialing it up. And the last
4:35
Speaker 4: one I'll touch on is Travis Kelcey. I think I
4:37
Speaker 4: do like Travis Kelcey tonight very Saint vein as the
4:40
Speaker 4: reason I like Raschie Rice, but I get a three
4:43
Speaker 4: thousand dollars discount on him. Short quick passes, has a
4:47
Speaker 4: red zone threat. I don't think they're gonna be able
4:50
Speaker 4: to drop my homes back, you know, five seven step drops,
4:53
Speaker 4: let him just chuck it deep. I think it's gonna
4:55
Speaker 4: be short intermediate routes. That's that's Travis Kelcey's game.
5:00
Speaker 2: No, I like a lot of what you talked about there.
5:02
Speaker 3: I'll start Receie Rice, probably my overall favorite captain. He
5:07
Speaker 3: does have the best touchdown prop on the slate at
5:09
Speaker 3: plus one twenty five, even ahead of these running backs
5:12
Speaker 3: as well, and in a must win game, you have
5:14
Speaker 3: to assume they're gonna rely on him pretty heavily, as
5:17
Speaker 3: he has been relied on recently since he's been back,
5:21
Speaker 3: I mean, commanding just a ridiculous target share of thirty
5:25
Speaker 3: three percent for the Chiefs.
5:26
Speaker 2: There.
5:27
Speaker 3: Only Pukin Nakua and JSN have a higher targets percentage
5:32
Speaker 3: there than Rashi Rice here in a game that should
5:35
Speaker 3: be fairly competitive and Mahomes should be under pressure at
5:38
Speaker 3: least looking at mahomes rushing prop twenty three and a
5:41
Speaker 3: half rushing prop, which is basically right in line with
5:44
Speaker 3: Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt for the exact same team,
5:47
Speaker 3: so Vegas also obviously gonna think Mahomes is gonna have
5:51
Speaker 3: to rely more on his legs.
5:53
Speaker 2: So I do like.
5:54
Speaker 3: Mahomes up top, and I think going like a Mahomes
5:58
Speaker 3: Travis Kelcey and like the kicker like a bucker in
6:03
Speaker 3: the flex is an interesting way to play Patrick Mahomes.
6:06
Speaker 3: Just say yeah, Rashie Rice is most common guy that
6:09
Speaker 3: people are probably gonna want to stack up with Mahome,
6:11
Speaker 3: especially if they have him up top, Whereas I could
6:14
Speaker 3: see playing Rashie Rice up top and then be lower
6:17
Speaker 3: lower on him in the flex because if he gets
6:19
Speaker 3: all the way there, at his price point compared to
6:21
Speaker 3: these other guys, I mean, he's two thousand dollars more
6:24
Speaker 3: expensive than a guy like Nico Collins right in a
6:27
Speaker 3: trail script on the road here where they could have
6:29
Speaker 3: to chuck the ball a lot more. Because we already
6:32
Speaker 3: know running backs against Kansas City is a tough feat.
6:35
Speaker 3: They've held guys like Sakuon Barkley, Jamiir Gibbs, et cetera
6:38
Speaker 3: in intact for minimal games. So the volume alone should
6:43
Speaker 3: lead to guys like Nico Collins being more heavily involved
6:46
Speaker 3: than Rashie Rice could be, but Rashie Rice's breakout could
6:50
Speaker 3: be mean you need him up in the up in
6:52
Speaker 3: the captain's position and not as much in the flex
6:55
Speaker 3: there so something like that. There's so many different ways
6:58
Speaker 3: to play Mahomes up top, hard to really him. So
7:01
Speaker 3: I will definitely be playing in line or slightly over
7:05
Speaker 3: the field with a guy like Patrick Mahomes Rashie Rice,
7:08
Speaker 3: I like up top more so than in the flex.
7:10
Speaker 2: Nico Collins I like a lot up top just because
7:12
Speaker 2: of volume alone.
7:14
Speaker 3: He does command the offense on that side right thirty
7:19
Speaker 3: one point two percent target share in Strud's first game
7:22
Speaker 3: back last week.
7:23
Speaker 2: For a guy like Nico Collins.
7:25
Speaker 3: Again, like I talked about the running game with Nick
7:28
Speaker 3: Chubb and what he marks has.
7:29
Speaker 2: Struggled in general.
7:30
Speaker 3: Now they go up against one of the best rush
7:32
Speaker 3: defenses in the NFL here, so I think they're gonna
7:35
Speaker 3: have to pass the ball a lot. I like Nico
7:38
Speaker 3: Collins a lot from the Houston side up top, and
7:40
Speaker 3: then I do like going down to a guy like
7:42
Speaker 3: Xavier Worthy who can have that home right home run
7:45
Speaker 3: potential in a game where they Mahomes could be under
7:50
Speaker 3: pressure more right and scrambling around with this front seven,
7:53
Speaker 3: you could see a guy like Xavier Worthy get behind
7:55
Speaker 3: the defense and all takes at that price point ninety
7:58
Speaker 3: nine hundred in the position is one of those down
8:02
Speaker 3: the field, and then whatever else he picks up is
8:04
Speaker 3: just bonus because it gets you on a different ross
8:06
Speaker 3: construction because he's ninety nine hundred compared to sixteen to
8:10
Speaker 3: five of Rice of his counterpart there. So in a
8:12
Speaker 3: build like that, I would probably fade Rice in the
8:14
Speaker 3: flex as well and just say hey, Worthy connects. Then
8:18
Speaker 3: it's Mahomes and then some of these more floor type guys,
8:21
Speaker 3: like the kickers, like the defenses that we're going to
8:23
Speaker 3: get into in the flex there, So I like that,
8:27
Speaker 3: not really gonna get much on these running backs, So
8:29
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be pretty condensed.
8:30
Speaker 2: It's gonna be Rice, it's gonna be Mahomes. I like
8:34
Speaker 2: a little.
8:34
Speaker 3: Kelsey up there, and then Nico Collins and Worthy are
8:39
Speaker 3: kind of guys I'm really looking at here. Not really
8:41
Speaker 3: too interested in many of these other guys up top,
8:44
Speaker 3: not playing CJ. Stroud, not gonna really mess with the
8:47
Speaker 3: Woody Marx or Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt. I just don't
8:50
Speaker 3: love it with Pacheco back as well at eleven one there.
8:55
Speaker 2: Against a tough front seven.
8:57
Speaker 3: I just don't see it for a guy like Kareem Hunt,
8:59
Speaker 3: even a little scoring game.
9:01
Speaker 2: He could he fall in the box twice. Yeah, absolutely
9:03
Speaker 2: he could.
9:04
Speaker 3: But I would rather take a shot at a guy
9:06
Speaker 3: like ninety nine hundred zaver Worthy over a guy like
9:08
Speaker 3: Cream Hunt. So any any final takes from the captain
9:11
Speaker 3: before we jump over and talk Flox here him.
9:14
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I'm with you on those running backs.
9:16
Speaker 4: I mean it's just I know Woody Marks went out
9:18
Speaker 4: for a series or two record last week against the
9:20
Speaker 4: Colts with an ankle miss practice on Wednesday, but he
9:24
Speaker 4: is gonna play. But but they just split too much
9:27
Speaker 4: and chubb his QUASII their goal line back. I think
9:30
Speaker 4: they kind of split carries down there, So no interest there. Yeah,
9:35
Speaker 4: I mean it's crazy to say this, nas I think
9:36
Speaker 4: it's I think it unts backfield now. I mean he
9:39
Speaker 4: out snapped Pachecko two to one last time. Pachecko slowly
9:42
Speaker 4: working his way back, and yeah, he's definitely the goal
9:44
Speaker 4: line back if Hunt gets down there. I mean I
9:47
Speaker 4: could see Hunt, like you said, like thirty two yards
9:50
Speaker 4: and two touchdowns or something crazy like that final score
9:53
Speaker 4: like fourteen to ten and he's on the winner. But
9:56
Speaker 4: I don't love it. It's it's it's more of these
9:58
Speaker 4: high end guys and then we'll talk about the kickers
10:01
Speaker 4: and defense later. I mean, I think if you're doing
10:03
Speaker 4: one fifty, I don't hate that. Just this Texans defense
10:06
Speaker 4: it's just absolutely filthy in my opinion. Made.
10:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, cream Hunt, you could definitely make a
10:11
Speaker 3: case to play him up top and just probably pair
10:13
Speaker 3: him with like the defense and bucker in the flax
10:16
Speaker 3: something like that, and just say that, hey, it's a
10:18
Speaker 3: Kareem Hunt. Couple couple plunges, right, Maybe you go like
10:21
Speaker 3: a Kareem Hunt up top Mahomes just for his floor
10:25
Speaker 3: and what he gets spreading it around a bucker and
10:28
Speaker 3: maybe the defense or something like that in a build
10:32
Speaker 3: like that. He has eighteen rushing attempts in the last
10:34
Speaker 3: four weeks in the goal line, so he's definitely the
10:36
Speaker 3: goal line back there. I'm the only other one to
10:39
Speaker 3: touch the ball in the goal line in the last
10:41
Speaker 3: four weeks is Burshard Smith with one rushing attempt there.
10:44
Speaker 3: You jump over and look at Houston Woody Marks has
10:47
Speaker 3: out carried Nick Chubb in the red zone sixteen to
10:50
Speaker 3: four in the last four weeks. Obviously, when you drop
10:52
Speaker 3: that down the last two weeks it's nine to four,
10:54
Speaker 3: so still a pretty wide split there. But Nick Chubb
10:56
Speaker 3: does have the low rushing touchdown from both of these guys,
11:00
Speaker 3: So it's definitely Kareem Hunt's backfield for sure in the
11:03
Speaker 3: red zone, and it would probably take him to score
11:07
Speaker 3: twice at that price point. I would assume to be
11:10
Speaker 3: the optimal captain guy to beat out these other guys,
11:12
Speaker 3: especially at that price because I mean Travis Kelce thirteen
11:15
Speaker 3: to two, and Kelsey could get there alone on just
11:18
Speaker 3: volume across the middle, right, especially if Mahomes is under
11:21
Speaker 3: pressure and just volume himself there in like eight for
11:25
Speaker 3: eighty type rum and he doesn't even get a touchdown,
11:29
Speaker 3: and in a low scoring game like a fourteen to
11:31
Speaker 3: seventeen type game something like that, which I kind of
11:34
Speaker 3: see how this game is going to go. That's kind
11:36
Speaker 3: of my inclination right that, Hey, it's going to be
11:40
Speaker 3: an undergame, goes under, the total gonna be probably within
11:44
Speaker 3: a field goal type game, which the spread would kind
11:46
Speaker 3: of indicate here. That's kind of how I'm seeing this
11:48
Speaker 3: just with these defenses, So you could see a guy
11:51
Speaker 3: like Travis Kelcey just volume himself his way there in
11:54
Speaker 3: the captain position, which can be the same case.
11:56
Speaker 2: For Rashid Rice.
11:57
Speaker 3: Right with the value, but sixteen five I've compared to
12:00
Speaker 3: thirteen to two does make a pretty big difference there.
12:04
Speaker 2: Let's jump over and talk the flex position here.
12:06
Speaker 3: You've got Patrick Mahomes at ten to eight, second highest
12:09
Speaker 3: priced guy behind his counterpart where.
12:11
Speaker 2: She Rice, and then got c. J. Stroud down at
12:13
Speaker 2: nine to four.
12:14
Speaker 3: I'm starting to get to a price point right that
12:16
Speaker 3: nine K range for these quarterbacks where it's pretty tough
12:19
Speaker 3: to avoid. Expect him to be a pretty popular flex play.
12:23
Speaker 3: I don't love it personally, but again, quarterbacks hard to avoid.
12:28
Speaker 3: I'm probably playing at least one of these guys just
12:30
Speaker 3: in the low scoring game. I'm going to take their
12:31
Speaker 3: flour points much more interested in Patrick Mahomes as the
12:35
Speaker 3: field will as well.
12:36
Speaker 2: What do you see here between Mahomes and c J.
12:39
Speaker 2: Stroud in the flex in particular, Yeah, I think.
12:42
Speaker 4: You're right, it's Mahomes ahead of ahead of Stroud. I
12:48
Speaker 4: know we don't have ownership yet, but I'm with you
12:50
Speaker 4: that Mahomes is once again going to come in the
12:52
Speaker 4: most popular captain To me, it's c J. Stroud in
12:56
Speaker 4: the flex only. I do not like him up top.
13:00
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, and like and you said it too, like
13:02
Speaker 4: non four for CJ. Stroud a quarterback that has a
13:06
Speaker 4: little bit of rushing up side. He's been rushing a
13:08
Speaker 4: little bit more as of late. Now we know he's
13:09
Speaker 4: coming off his off his concussion, so maybe he might
13:12
Speaker 4: be scared to run. I think this is second game
13:15
Speaker 4: back since he got knocked out for a few games.
13:18
Speaker 4: So mahomes clearly ahead of c J. Stroud. The price
13:22
Speaker 4: shows that, the projection shows that. But it's c J.
13:24
Speaker 4: Stroud only in the flex for me, No captain c J. Stroud.
13:28
Speaker 3: Yep, I'm with you there. Let's jump over and talk
13:31
Speaker 3: running backs here. Let me filter to the running back position.
13:35
Speaker 3: Kareem Hunt, Pacheco and then Berschard Smith is kind of
13:37
Speaker 3: their Swiss army knife right there. Jerrick mckenning type role
13:40
Speaker 3: in this Chief Chiefs offense. In terms of the props,
13:44
Speaker 3: the props are pretty gross on all of these guys.
13:46
Speaker 3: Woody Marx leads the slate in terms of rushing yards
13:48
Speaker 3: at forty six and a half Kareem Hunt drops down
13:51
Speaker 3: to thirty four and a half p Checko twenty seven
13:53
Speaker 3: and a half, and then Chubb is down at sixteen
13:56
Speaker 3: and a half and there is no rushing prop even
13:59
Speaker 3: on the board for a guy like Breshard Smith. But
14:02
Speaker 3: when you jump over to receiving, that's where some of
14:06
Speaker 3: the props do pop up for some of these guys. Overall,
14:09
Speaker 3: pretty gross, pretty brutal matchups on both sides. I would
14:12
Speaker 3: say for the running backs here, my Hunt is probably
14:15
Speaker 3: my favorite, and then it'd probably be Nick Chubb with
14:17
Speaker 3: the discount, just because if Nick Chubb fall falls in
14:20
Speaker 3: the box at thirty four hundred there, I think that's good.
14:25
Speaker 3: But he's at Nick Chubb at that price is gonna
14:27
Speaker 3: have to outscore the defenses in that range just because
14:30
Speaker 3: the defenses are thirty six hundred for the Texans that
14:33
Speaker 3: could have I mean some pretty solid sack floor in
14:37
Speaker 3: general here with Mahomes with a banged up offensive line,
14:41
Speaker 3: they've been one of the best defenses in the league
14:43
Speaker 3: in general. And then the Chiefs defense is at four
14:45
Speaker 3: K on the other side, going to against c. J. Stroud,
14:48
Speaker 3: who we know can make mistakes in harrow ahead gonna
14:52
Speaker 3: be kind of cold, kind of rainy, some particip precipitation
14:57
Speaker 3: potential as well.
14:58
Speaker 2: So what do you see here from the running position?
15:00
Speaker 3: What he Mark's most expensive eighty four hundred, them Kareem
15:03
Speaker 3: Hunt seventy four hundred, and then it's a bunch of
15:05
Speaker 3: dropped down to that that defense range basically in terms
15:09
Speaker 3: of salary.
15:10
Speaker 4: Well, Nate's let me tell you a little secret. Last
15:12
Speaker 4: time I full faded running backs, all they did was
15:15
Speaker 4: Kyalamannunga and DeAndre Swift ran for two fifty. So I'm
15:18
Speaker 4: going right back to the well now, full fading all
15:21
Speaker 4: four running backs. I'm not playing a running back in
15:24
Speaker 4: single entry or three max. You have forty would you
15:27
Speaker 4: say forty seven and a half was That's just gross.
15:30
Speaker 4: I'm gonna get there other ways, Nads. I think these
15:33
Speaker 4: running backs pretty bad place tonight. In my opinion, I
15:37
Speaker 4: won't be having any of them in single entry or
15:39
Speaker 4: three max. And I don't think you need to either.
15:41
Speaker 4: But maybe you feel differently because you were the Swiss
15:43
Speaker 4: whisperer last time.
15:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a different spot for me, different game.
15:48
Speaker 3: I just saw on avenue to kind kind of exploit there,
15:52
Speaker 3: not really the case here. I mean you look at
15:53
Speaker 3: Kansas City, they're fourth best in the league against the
15:56
Speaker 3: running back position in general, and then you look at Houston,
16:00
Speaker 3: they're eleven overall.
16:01
Speaker 2: And we know Creem Hunt really isn't explosive.
16:04
Speaker 3: We're gonna take him pass interference right down at the one,
16:07
Speaker 3: down at the two, or inside the red zone, which
16:09
Speaker 3: they definitely could and he could get there that way.
16:11
Speaker 3: But a seventy four hundred pretty pretty expensive price point
16:14
Speaker 3: to pay, and he's got a sub ten projection, so
16:16
Speaker 3: he is gonna be probably fairly low owned just with
16:19
Speaker 3: that projection alone. Obviously, things are gonna change throughout the
16:21
Speaker 3: day here and we're gonna see ownership get adjusted as
16:25
Speaker 3: we get closer to lock. Again, we're about eleven hours
16:30
Speaker 3: away from kickoff here when we're doing the show. So
16:33
Speaker 3: for me, it's cream Hunt and Nick Jobb or my
16:37
Speaker 3: two favorite running backs if you want to call it favorite.
16:42
Speaker 3: But overall, the running back position is very gross, but
16:44
Speaker 3: everyone's gonna see it that way. So I could see
16:47
Speaker 3: this as an avenue where this is your differentiator in tournaments, again,
16:51
Speaker 3: especially if it's a low scoring game, like I think
16:53
Speaker 3: it's gonna be like a seventeen to fourteen type game
16:56
Speaker 3: or sixteen thirteen or fourteen to ten like that. Right,
17:01
Speaker 3: you could see that loan touchdown come from one of
17:03
Speaker 3: these running backs, and you're probably gonna need them if
17:05
Speaker 3: that's the case, if it's low scoring and there's just
17:07
Speaker 3: not a lot of volume on the other side from
17:10
Speaker 3: a pass game perspective, So I think there it's.
17:13
Speaker 2: A scary full fade position. But I get the reasoning.
17:15
Speaker 3: I just think there's gonna be an avenue here to
17:17
Speaker 3: get different than the field, just because especially at these
17:20
Speaker 3: projections and these price points, and in a low scoring game,
17:24
Speaker 3: if it is truly a low scoring game, which I
17:25
Speaker 3: think is going to be, you could see a one
17:29
Speaker 3: touchdown from any of.
17:30
Speaker 2: These guys be be optimal.
17:31
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, I don't want to be
17:34
Speaker 3: stone dead because I full faded the position is the
17:38
Speaker 3: only thing I'll say there. Let's jump over talk receivers. Here,
17:41
Speaker 3: got Rashi Rice all the way up to the top.
17:42
Speaker 3: Obviously eleven K. You got Nico Collins at ninety eight hundred.
17:47
Speaker 3: Obviously those two lead the way in the receiver room.
17:50
Speaker 3: Both really really good plays. In general, I prefer Rashi
17:53
Speaker 3: Rice more so in the Captain position than I do
17:55
Speaker 3: in the flex.
17:56
Speaker 2: Nico Collins I think is fine in both.
17:59
Speaker 3: I still like go up top as well, but I'm
18:01
Speaker 3: more so willing to play a guy like Nico Collins
18:05
Speaker 3: in the flex here at the price point. And then
18:07
Speaker 3: you got these other guys sixty six hundred Worthy, fifty
18:10
Speaker 3: eight hundred Jaden Higgins who runs majority of his routes
18:12
Speaker 3: on the outside where Kansas City is very very good
18:15
Speaker 3: at defending. So I personally don't like Jimdan Higgins much.
18:19
Speaker 3: I would rather mess around with a guy like Christian
18:21
Speaker 3: Kirk Jalen Noel at one K.
18:26
Speaker 2: Running his routes in the inside right in the in
18:28
Speaker 2: the slot there.
18:30
Speaker 3: So I think taking a shot at some of those
18:32
Speaker 3: guys is more of my way I want to kind
18:35
Speaker 3: of approach this. But what do you see here from
18:36
Speaker 3: the wide receiver position, another pretty gross, pretty grows spot
18:40
Speaker 3: in general.
18:42
Speaker 4: Yeah, it really is. I like what you kind of
18:45
Speaker 4: said earlier with Nico. You know, Nico is their bell
18:49
Speaker 4: col right, He's their best receiver. They have a lot
18:51
Speaker 4: of good receivers, a couple of good rookies in there.
18:53
Speaker 4: Nico got ten targets last week with the CJ back
18:57
Speaker 4: under center. He's their best bet. These uh, these corners
19:02
Speaker 4: for Kansas City are pretty good as well. But I
19:05
Speaker 4: would have Nico as my favorite receiver outside of Rashie obviously,
19:10
Speaker 4: so you are getting a discount with Niko though. So
19:13
Speaker 4: it's those two really. You know, this cold weather, I
19:17
Speaker 4: know you mentioned Worthy and or Hollywood earlier. Just throwing deep,
19:22
Speaker 4: I mean, and I'll throw I'll throw Thornton in there,
19:24
Speaker 4: you know, as a as a dart throw. It's just
19:26
Speaker 4: gonna be tough to throw bombs against this defense and
19:29
Speaker 4: with this weather. So I'm kind of out on those
19:31
Speaker 4: or lower than than maybe most on those three would
19:34
Speaker 4: I'll call, you know, deep play guys. And then and
19:37
Speaker 4: then those other receivers on h On Houston Nags. It
19:40
Speaker 4: just feels like like wide receiver roulette. Right, you got Higgins,
19:44
Speaker 4: h I like Higgins, I like Kirk as a receiver.
19:47
Speaker 4: I like Hutchinson as a receiver. They're just all you know,
19:50
Speaker 4: sharing time at fifty percent. So we start to build lineups,
19:53
Speaker 4: you know, if one of those fits at the end,
19:55
Speaker 4: I think I'm okay with that. Uh, Kirk at thirty
19:57
Speaker 4: two hundred maybe stands out the most, just because I
19:59
Speaker 4: think he's the cheapest, but it's Nico for me up Tom,
20:03
Speaker 4: it's Rashi for me up top, and in terms of
20:06
Speaker 4: the wide receivers, and then I'll just build accordingly to
20:09
Speaker 4: how much money I have left with the rest of them.
20:11
Speaker 3: Yeah, No, I just think I'm on team Jalen Knowle
20:14
Speaker 3: over Christian Kirk.
20:16
Speaker 2: They know what they have in Christian Kirk. No targets
20:18
Speaker 2: last week.
20:18
Speaker 3: Noel did only get one target, obviously, but he saw
20:21
Speaker 3: his route participation jump up to forty two percent following
20:25
Speaker 3: the buye and in that game there with c J.
20:28
Speaker 2: Stroud.
20:28
Speaker 3: So at the one thousand price point, I'll just play
20:32
Speaker 3: him over a guy like Christian Kirk in my opinion,
20:35
Speaker 3: So I like Noel a decent amount there at one
20:38
Speaker 3: K is a value option on the slate and then
20:41
Speaker 3: over on the other side for Kansas City, it's kind
20:44
Speaker 3: of tough with guy with Hollywood Brown, Thornton and Juju
20:48
Speaker 3: Smith Schuster all kind of rotating around that thirty to
20:51
Speaker 3: forty percent route share. Hollywood Brown leading the leading the
20:56
Speaker 3: team there in terms of route participation. He is kind
20:59
Speaker 3: of a floor, right, so you're kind of playing him
21:01
Speaker 3: for a floor and at five K, it feels kind
21:04
Speaker 3: of gross. He's gonna probably have to get like a
21:08
Speaker 3: five for fifty in one type role right where he
21:11
Speaker 3: gets like that sixteen type points. Because if any of
21:15
Speaker 3: these kickers bang a fifty yard or two, right, if
21:18
Speaker 3: they bang two fifty yarders, that's ten points right there.
21:20
Speaker 2: You're gonna need that five for fifty from.
21:23
Speaker 3: A guy like Hollywood Brown to just match the output
21:25
Speaker 3: of the kickers within the same range there.
21:27
Speaker 2: So I think that's an interesting talking point there.
21:29
Speaker 3: We can go down a whole tangent about kicker scoring
21:32
Speaker 3: in general, but when you look at other guys within
21:35
Speaker 3: the price range, all of the kickers, that's what you
21:37
Speaker 3: have to compare him to two fifty yarders, right, they're
21:39
Speaker 3: at ten points the kicker is and it takes five
21:42
Speaker 3: for fifty to get to ten points there for a receiver.
21:45
Speaker 3: So I think Hollywood Brown is the floor type play.
21:49
Speaker 3: I will say Taekwon Thornton. I get the weather and everything,
21:52
Speaker 3: but at twenty eight hundred, his average depth of target
21:55
Speaker 3: is over forty two yards, I mean right around forty
21:58
Speaker 3: two yards. It takes is one play from him. So
22:01
Speaker 3: in Mahomes type captain builds, I don't mind throwing in
22:05
Speaker 3: a guy like Taekwon Thornton, because I would probably prefer
22:08
Speaker 3: to only use.
22:09
Speaker 2: Him in Mahomes captain builds.
22:11
Speaker 3: Again, he's probably gonna hit other teams as well, but
22:15
Speaker 3: if he gets there, it's probably one catch down the
22:17
Speaker 3: silence for a touchdown that would help Mahomes up top
22:20
Speaker 3: as well, and then the salary savings would help as well,
22:23
Speaker 3: and then you could just get floor plays like a
22:25
Speaker 3: potentially Travis kelcey right in the flax Rashi Rice, if
22:28
Speaker 3: you wanted to in the flax where you just take
22:30
Speaker 3: their floors, you take the ceiling of Thornton down the
22:32
Speaker 3: sidelines where he obviously blows away his medium projection of
22:36
Speaker 3: that one to two points because he catches that fifty
22:38
Speaker 3: hours bomb for a touchdown right gets you. That gets
22:41
Speaker 3: you that ten plus points there at twenty eight hundred,
22:44
Speaker 3: finding himself on the optimal line up there. So guy
22:47
Speaker 3: like Taekwon Thornton is probably my third favorite receiver behind
22:50
Speaker 3: a guy like Xavier Worthy.
22:53
Speaker 2: In Rashi Rice.
22:54
Speaker 3: We'll talk about Travis kelce here when we get to
22:55
Speaker 3: the tight end position. I know Houston is very good
22:58
Speaker 3: against the tight end position here. Think they're gonna have
23:00
Speaker 3: to rely on Travis Kelcey just with the way the
23:03
Speaker 3: pressure is gonna happen. And you could just see a
23:07
Speaker 3: floor type performance here for Kelsey, which could be enough.
23:10
Speaker 2: He is all the way up at eighty eight hundred.
23:12
Speaker 3: But again we talked about I'm gonna be under on
23:15
Speaker 3: a guy like Rashi Rice in the flex just at
23:17
Speaker 3: that salary over in the Captain on him, it's gonna
23:21
Speaker 3: lead me to more of these guys like a Travis
23:22
Speaker 3: Kelcey in the flex here. Not the best matchup by
23:25
Speaker 3: any means, but again, heavily involved in this offense.
23:27
Speaker 2: What do you see here from the tight end position
23:30
Speaker 2: in general?
23:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean you laid it. You laid it all
23:34
Speaker 4: out there pretty well. I mean it's Schultz and Kelcey, right.
23:39
Speaker 4: I don't know if Noah Gray is back tonight, but
23:42
Speaker 4: I'm not getting cute with Noah Gray or Cade Stove
23:48
Speaker 4: or something like that at sixteen hundred. But yeah, it's
23:53
Speaker 4: it's Kelsey for me. I talked about it and the Captain.
23:55
Speaker 4: I really like Kelsey tonight, just as you know, short
23:59
Speaker 4: quick passes and then and then Schultz. You know how
24:02
Speaker 4: many targets did Shultz get last week? He got eight
24:06
Speaker 4: targets and they're short. They're short and quick as well.
24:09
Speaker 4: One person we didn't touch on Nate's in the wide
24:11
Speaker 4: receivers is newly single Braxton Barrios got dumped by his
24:18
Speaker 4: girlfriend Alex Earl, runner up and Dancing with the Stars fame.
24:22
Speaker 4: So maybe a little Braxton Barrios uh single narrative we
24:27
Speaker 4: got in those in those wide receiver streets. But uh
24:30
Speaker 4: but uh yeah, it's Schultz and Kelsey, like both of
24:33
Speaker 4: them tonight, really like Kelsey. Uh but yeah, I'll be
24:35
Speaker 4: playing both the tight ends, like them more than than
24:38
Speaker 4: uh then the receivers outside of Rice and Collins.
24:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean all these tight ends too.
24:45
Speaker 3: I just think the way the game's gonna go, I
24:47
Speaker 3: think they're gonna feed more targets here. And Dunton Schultz
24:49
Speaker 3: feels a little underpriced. I mean he's fifty four. I
24:53
Speaker 3: mean he's right there within four hundred dollars of a
24:56
Speaker 3: guy like Jayden Higgins, who feels like a pretty boomer
24:59
Speaker 3: bust options, especially in this offense against PEG's defense on
25:04
Speaker 3: the outside here, So I like, don't show uz a
25:05
Speaker 3: lot at fifty four. Excuse me, fifty four hundred He's
25:09
Speaker 3: probably my favorite play on the Texans outside of Niko Collins.
25:12
Speaker 3: I like him, Aton love Travis Kelcey at eighty eight hundred.
25:15
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be in on both of these tight ends here.
25:18
Speaker 3: No Gray Kate Stover are kind of fringe value options.
25:21
Speaker 3: I much rather play a guy like Jalen nole Done
25:23
Speaker 3: at one k personally myself.
25:25
Speaker 2: Than than mess with either of these guys down there.
25:27
Speaker 3: So I'll probably be even with the field or underweight
25:31
Speaker 3: on those guys. I don't see me getting to those
25:33
Speaker 3: guys much when I got Jalen Nowell at one K,
25:36
Speaker 3: who I think is a better play than both of them,
25:40
Speaker 3: and then let's jump over and talk kickers and defenses
25:42
Speaker 3: here to round us out. I think this is a
25:44
Speaker 3: good position on both sides. I really, really really like
25:48
Speaker 3: the Texas defense at thirty six hundred. I can see
25:51
Speaker 3: the Texans win this game. Personally, I'm not too impressed
25:54
Speaker 3: with the Kansas City Chiefs. I'm very impressed with Texans defense.
25:58
Speaker 3: They're They're very, very good. Thirty six hundred dollars seems
26:01
Speaker 3: like a ridiculous price point on a defense that could
26:04
Speaker 3: have five sacks here tonight.
26:05
Speaker 2: I know it's tough.
26:06
Speaker 3: Mahomes doesn't make a ton of mistakes until he does.
26:09
Speaker 3: But this defense, I mean, fourteen eleven, eighteen eight, eight, fourteen, nine, fifteen,
26:14
Speaker 3: that's playing against Josh Allen, that's playing against bo Nix,
26:17
Speaker 3: who doesn't take a lot of sacks. That's playing against
26:19
Speaker 3: sam Donold, who's light in the league, up playing against
26:22
Speaker 3: Baltimore obviously with no Lamar Jackson there.
26:24
Speaker 2: But I mean, I think this could be a.
26:26
Speaker 3: Spot here where Texans defense could get ten to twelve,
26:31
Speaker 3: ten to fifteen points and it's going to be pretty
26:33
Speaker 3: tough to beat that at thirty six hundred compared to
26:35
Speaker 3: these other fringe value options down there, Kansas City defense
26:39
Speaker 3: at four K don't really like them much personally myself,
26:43
Speaker 3: But what do you see here at kickers and defense
26:44
Speaker 3: is I think that both kickers are really good.
26:47
Speaker 2: I like Fairbar and Moore. I like the Texans defense
26:49
Speaker 2: more than both the chiefs side of things.
26:51
Speaker 3: So I think I'm going to be more on Houston
26:54
Speaker 3: special teams here than Kansas City special teams, just because
26:57
Speaker 3: I like the skill positions a little bit more from
26:59
Speaker 3: Kansas City, where she writes Travis Kelce Patrick Mahomes is
27:02
Speaker 3: gonna leave me to getting a little bit different and
27:04
Speaker 3: probably playing Texans defense even in mahomes builds, I think
27:08
Speaker 3: is interesting. So I like Fairburn and Texans a lot
27:11
Speaker 3: more than Bucker and Chiefs.
27:13
Speaker 2: But what do you see here?
27:16
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is one place we disagree, Naids,
27:19
Speaker 4: I like, I like Butker over over Fairbairn slightly projected
27:25
Speaker 4: almost a point better than him. He's kicked in the
27:27
Speaker 4: elements before. Uh, So I like Butcker the little head
27:30
Speaker 4: and it's it's it's wild to me that the Chiefs
27:33
Speaker 4: are like projected like a point and a half higher
27:36
Speaker 4: than than the Texans. Because I'm with you, I think
27:38
Speaker 4: this Texans defense is dynamite. Uh the Chiefs should get
27:43
Speaker 4: lower lower ownership. They're only four hundred more dollars. Their
27:47
Speaker 4: pass rush is lacking, uh, Stone call Jones is pretty
27:52
Speaker 4: good at stuff in the run and crew. But I
27:55
Speaker 4: like both defenses. I think I'm gonna fade Fairburn and
27:58
Speaker 4: go and go for Butcker. Only four hundred more dollars
28:01
Speaker 4: there as well, So I think that's the one place
28:02
Speaker 4: we differ. But yeah, both both these are dynamite plays.
28:06
Speaker 4: I actually think this game plays way under the post
28:08
Speaker 4: of total of forty one. We saw the Colts and
28:13
Speaker 4: Chiefs play this same game two weeks ago and it
28:16
Speaker 4: was I think being like twenty four to twenty something
28:18
Speaker 4: like that. I think that's something we can expect again.
28:21
Speaker 4: Chiefs came back late. It's gonna be low scoring, grind
28:24
Speaker 4: it out type of game in my opinion. So yeah, kickers,
28:27
Speaker 4: great plays. Defense are in my opinion, great plays. I
28:31
Speaker 4: liked what you said ten to fifteen for Houston. I
28:33
Speaker 4: think you could see that from both squads, but that's
28:35
Speaker 4: just my take.
28:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's Fad and Fadan farwar and who seems to
28:39
Speaker 3: have a floor of ten DraftKings points here, so that.
28:41
Speaker 2: Feels pretty risky.
28:43
Speaker 3: There a lot die of my hill here of going
28:47
Speaker 3: Texans special teams over the Kansas City special teams here.
28:50
Speaker 2: I think Bucker is obviously good play as well.
28:52
Speaker 3: I'll be overweight on both the kickers here just because
28:54
Speaker 3: I think the game goes under and I'll take their floor.
28:56
Speaker 2: I mean, one fifty yarder is five points.
28:58
Speaker 3: I mean give me that all day in a game
29:01
Speaker 3: like this, So I love both kickers and the Texans defense.
29:05
Speaker 3: I'll probably be full fading the Chiefs defense or definitely
29:09
Speaker 3: at worst or at best excuse me, matching the field there.
29:14
Speaker 3: I don't really like being overweight there again, because I'll
29:17
Speaker 3: be overweight on the Texan side of things.
29:20
Speaker 2: That's everything. I think we talked through it pretty good here.
29:22
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be playing five ones on either side here,
29:27
Speaker 3: although I think you could play five ones. If I
29:30
Speaker 3: were to play five ones, I'd probably just rather play
29:34
Speaker 3: I mean, I never really played five ones. But what's
29:36
Speaker 3: your what's your take on on five ones?
29:38
Speaker 2: Your ham? I don't. I don't see tons of ownership
29:41
Speaker 2: going either way.
29:41
Speaker 3: I just think there's enough on both sides of this,
29:44
Speaker 3: especially with the defenses and the kickers that I don't
29:46
Speaker 3: really want to get to a five to one build here.
29:48
Speaker 2: But any any thoughts on that before we get out
29:51
Speaker 2: of here.
29:52
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's more balanced builds for me, if you know,
29:54
Speaker 4: four two three, three two four, something like that. But
29:57
Speaker 4: it's more balanced than five to ones tonight.
29:59
Speaker 2: Yeah, tend to agree there, that's gonna do it.
30:02
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