Latest / Save Democracy / The global picture of democracy... and its alternative

Transcript

The global picture of democracy... and its alternative · Save Democracy

0:04
Hello and welcome.
0:06
Today
0:06
we're visiting Freedom House.
0:08
Freedom House is a non-governmental organization that was founded in 1941.
0:14
It's the oldest American organization devoted to defending democracy
0:18
and freedom around the world.
0:20
Beginning in 1973, Freedom House has systematically tracked the most
0:25
pressing threats to democracy and freedom around the globe through
0:29
the Freedom in the World reports.
0:32
And today we're joined by Co-Author of the Freedom in the World report,
0:37
research manager and senior research analyst at Freedom House, Cathryn Grothe.
0:42
Welcome, Cathryn.
0:42
Thanks for joining us.
0:44
Thank you, Katherine, for having me.
0:46
So happy to be here.
0:47
I wondered if we could start, if we could maybe board a plane with
0:51
our listeners of Save Democracy.
0:54
You have a wonderful overview of the world in terms of the trends in democracy
0:58
and autocracy, given your day job.
1:01
And if you could take us around the world in our plane and just give us a bit of a
1:06
description, an overview of the trends, with regards to democracy v autocracy
1:13
in the world, that would be great.
1:15
The major trend, and this is really looking back over the last 20 years,
1:19
is that freedom has been declining around the world, and this is in
1:23
every region, in every regime type.
1:26
And I think it's important to make the distinction when we talk about
1:30
freedom and democracy and autocracy.
1:33
I think often you see people saying freedom has declined,
1:37
democracy has declined, and using these two things interchangeably.
1:41
You'll hear me talk a lot about the decline in freedom, and when we talk
1:45
about that, we're looking specifically at, political rights and civil liberties.
1:49
So this is what everyday people are able to access in their lives.
1:54
Political rights meaning the ability to participate in free and fair elections.
1:59
Civil liberties being the ability to access independent media,
2:04
and exercise their right to free assembly and free expression.
2:08
Whereas when we talk about democracy and autocracy, these
2:11
are systems of government.
2:12
And of course, in a democracy there are higher levels of freedom,
2:16
whereas in an autocracy there are lower levels of freedom.
2:19
So these things are very much related.
2:22
We're seeing democracies backslide around the world and more autocratic
2:26
places are deepening repression.
2:28
They're getting more and more less free, and this is what's really driving this
2:33
decline in freedom around the world.
2:35
At Freedom House, we classify different regime types into three categories.
2:40
That is free countries, partly free countries, and not free.
2:44
Free countries are your established democracies.
2:48
Not free countries are more of your entrenched authoritarian countries.
2:53
Partly free countries, these are more of your hybrid regimes, countries
2:58
that are more in transition.
2:59
You can think of places like India or Hungary, Indonesia or Kenya.
3:05
One of the trends that we've seen that's been really concerning over the last
3:08
20 years is that this kind of cohort of partly free countries has been shrinking.
3:13
And it's not because unfortunately these countries are
3:16
transitioning into democracies.
3:19
This is really disproving some of the predictions that have been made
3:23
in the early 2000s about the global momentum towards liberalization.
3:27
Rather, these countries are more and more falling into authoritarianism.
3:33
So while, the group of countries that were rated free 20 years ago, that
3:39
cohort has rather, largely stayed the same, showing one piece of good news
3:45
that democracies are rather resilient.
3:47
Unfortunately, this group of kind of grey zone countries in transition or
3:53
hybrid regimes are increasingly moving towards authoritarianism, and it's
3:58
creating this sort of bipolar world where we have more and more entrenched
4:02
autocracies pushing against democracies.
4:07
I guess finally, maybe I'll end with some good news, and I just
4:10
alluded to this, and that is that democracies do remain resilient.
4:14
And people, I think many people around the world are continuing to call for
4:21
freedom, even in some of the most repressive places around the world.
4:24
More than 85%
4:27
of the countries that were rated free in 2005, were still rated
4:32
free in our index 20 years later.
4:35
So it really does show that countries that are able to reach that kind of level of
4:40
established democracy tend to stay there.
4:44
So it does just show kind of that level of resiliency of democracy.
4:50
And even in some of the most repressive environments, these are places like
4:54
Iran and like China, citizens continue to mobilize for political rights,
4:58
call for accountable governments, and call for personal dignity.
5:03
We've seen this time and time again in places like Iran, where despite the
5:07
risks, you continue to see people going to the streets and calling for their
5:12
freedom despite the brutal crackdowns.
5:14
We saw this just most recently in early January.
5:17
You continue to see this even in very small scale forms of dissent in China,
5:21
where self-censorship is so rampant, but you continue to see people in
5:27
the ways that they can pushing back against the massive, massive censorship
5:31
apparatus there to try to inform people about their rights and liberties.
5:38
So I'll stop there, but I think, despite kind of some of the most of
5:42
the negative news around the trends in democracy and freedom, there are
5:46
still some of these kind of bright spots that I like to try to highlight.
5:50
I think what we like to try to understand is the extent to which democracy is
5:56
backsliding and what are the forces that underpin that, and what, if anything,
6:05
individuals can do, and we can come to that at the end before we close.
6:09
If we look across the world, if we look at, say, maybe the major
6:14
democracies in the world with the biggest populations, in the last 20
6:19
years, could you speak to the extent to which there is evidence of backsliding?
6:25
That's a great question and certainly one that is top of mind here in the US.
6:32
I think, so just to talk about some of the drivers of decline more broadly,
6:38
and then I'll talk specifically about democratic backsliding.
6:42
So the reasons that we've seen this 20-year decline in global freedom, two
6:48
of those reasons are kind of time-bound, very obvious and evident things, and
6:53
those are coup d'etats and conflicts.
6:56
Those are things that get headlines, that raise alarms, that are very
7:00
easy to see with your eyes, and it's very clear how they erode freedom,
7:06
political rights, and civil liberties.
7:08
The other two are the erosion of democratic institutions, which
7:13
is what we'll talk about, and then deepening repression in
7:16
already authoritarian countries.
7:18
And those things are a lot harder to quantify or to kind of see, and this is
7:23
because they happen slowly over time.
7:25
I think you actually recently had a guest on who kind of described, what
7:31
we call, the erosion of democratic institutions, but who described
7:35
this as, autocratic legalism.
7:38
I would encourage folks to listen to that episode.
7:40
It was really great.
7:42
And I'll kind of echo what she said, which is that democracies
7:46
don't disappear overnight.
7:48
More often they're weakened kind of piece by piece until meaningful
7:52
accountability no longer exists.
7:55
I think the places you'll hear that are most emblematic of this
8:00
are Venezuela, Turkey, Hungary.
8:04
One place that it is continuing to happen, where you can kind of see
8:08
this in real time, is El Salvador.
8:11
So President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador was elected through relatively
8:17
free and fair competitive elections.
8:19
He came to power and was very popular, and actually remains relatively popular
8:24
because he ran on a platform of cracking down on violent crime and non-state
8:31
actors, which was a very major problem in El Salvador, and he did do that.
8:37
However, at the cost of really eroding El Salvador's democratic
8:42
institutions, by cleaning up kind of some of the problem caused by
8:47
major, major drug-related violence, he completely co-opted the judiciary.
8:56
He eroded due process.
8:58
There was a very extended state of exceptions or kind of like
9:01
a state of emergency there.
9:03
And even after, physical security was returned and a lot of the violence
9:08
had quelled in El Salvador, a lot of these measures remained in place.
9:15
And then we saw President Bukele start to do some things very
9:20
piecemeal, under the guise of legality, that cemented his power.
9:26
These were things like changing the constitution to remove term
9:30
limits, which just happened.
9:32
It was using anti-corruption bodies and the judiciary to
9:38
go after political opponents.
9:41
And slowly over time, I mean, the last elections were very much, very less
9:47
free and fair than the first ones.
9:49
And El Salvador today does not look anything like it does
9:53
when Bukele came to power.
9:54
I mean, the level of decline that we've seen in a, honestly, pretty
9:59
rapid amount of time compared to other examples, even in Hungary,
10:02
I would say, is quite staggering.
10:06
But I think that this should serve as a warning sign to other democracies
10:11
that could be undergoing this.
10:13
Autocrats
10:16
don't just instantly turn a democratic country into an
10:20
authoritarian state overnight.
10:21
It does happen often through these piecemeal efforts that do look legal.
10:27
Things like holding constitutional referendums, having people vote to remove
10:31
term limits is something that is seen all over the world at an alarming rate
10:35
to slowly erode these institutions.
10:38
This is a playbook that we have seen in Hungary that was really tried and
10:43
true, perfected by Viktor Orbán, as well as President Erdoğan in Turkey.
10:50
This is something that leaders all around the world have kind of tried
10:54
again and again, some to success, and in some cases not, where we've
10:58
seen democratic institutions be able to push back against these efforts.
11:02
That speaks to the recent election in Hungary and how the civil society
11:08
and the media and political actors working together managed to get it over
11:13
the line and oust the Orbán regime.
11:17
And I just wondered if you can speak to the Hungarian example as to
11:21
lessons for us about, how they were able to reclaim their democracy.
11:25
Yes.
11:25
I mean, I think lots of people who follow this space were certainly watching
11:31
Hungary with bated breath, and time will still tell, what is going to happen.
11:38
I think one thing that we have learned from places like Poland or Guatemala,
11:44
where there have been years if not decades of democratic erosion where
11:48
institutions have been chipped away, is that the road to recovery is long.
11:54
Much like with coups or any other effort to kind of break down
12:00
democratic institutions, building them back up takes a lot longer.
12:05
It can be quite quick to, even do a constitutional referendum
12:10
and get rid of term limits or obviously with a coup even faster.
12:14
But the efforts of rebuilding, let's say, a co-opted judiciary or of,
12:21
rebuilding public trust in anti-corruption bodies, it takes a really long time.
12:28
And so I think this is something in Hungary that we'll be watching to see
12:33
whether the government, one, is able to do that, and two, whether they can actually
12:39
hold their promises that they ran on, especially around things like corruption,
12:42
which I know is a very big thing, that the government was able to campaign on.
12:46
But it is, regardless, to see, over a decade of Fidesz and Viktor Orbán's kind
12:53
of repressive rule in Hungary come to an end is certainly a win, a win for Hungary.
12:58
Did your reporting, your desk, follow the efforts that were made
13:03
in Hungary to get to that point?
13:04
I mean, we don't know about the future, but they did get across the line.
13:08
They did oust Orbán, and it was a huge effort.
13:12
Yes.
13:13
And I think a lot of times where this starts is with civil society.
13:19
Of course, politicians play a large role in this, but in Hungary there's such a
13:24
vibrant civil society who for years, it didn't just happen recently, who have
13:29
been integral in pushing back and raising the alarm around what has been happening.
13:34
Even as early as 2014 when Viktor Orban and Fidesz really consolidated
13:40
power through their efforts to kind of gerrymander, or reshift
13:47
political lines to essentially ensure that they had kind of
13:51
super majority in the parliament.
13:54
There were different groups, watchdog organizations in civil
13:59
society who were calling that out.
14:01
Independent journalists were calling that out, and of course then the government
14:06
went after those people because they were the ones who were holding them to account.
14:10
But I think in the continuation and leading up to the elections, these
14:13
were the groups who were mobilizing, who were getting voters organized.
14:17
And I think not just in Hungary, but in places around the world where you do
14:21
see, countries who have spent years under either autocratic rule or in Hungary's
14:27
case, kind of more illiberal rule, civil society is often where it starts, to, I'd
14:34
say, like light the fire, have the spark, to make the U-turn back towards, a hope
14:42
at least, for a democratic resurgence.
14:46
It takes
14:49
people working together collectively in the society, and supporting the
14:52
civil society in its efforts if they can't themselves get involved.
14:58
It's quite inspiring that regardless of what happens next,
15:00
that they managed to do that.
15:03
I heard recently, about a well, what would you call it, a top-tier university,
15:09
a group of people, in a world-class university, and they're studying political
15:16
science, and I heard this academic say that they were arguing… A group
15:21
of students from around the world and they were arguing against democracy.
15:25
And they were, the politicians of the future and, she was
15:29
shocked by that, and she was…
15:31
And I, so was I. And I just, I'm just thinking to myself, "Okay, if you don't
15:37
have democracy, what is the choice?" What are the options on the table?
15:42
They're not very pretty, right?
15:43
And I just wondered if you could just lay out for any listeners
15:47
who might be thinking, yeah.
15:49
I mean, of course, before we go further, just to underline, democracy's not easy.
15:54
It's never easy.
15:55
It's constantly involves compromise, working things out together, trying
15:59
to, to gather all kinds of disparate opinion, trying to work out difficult
16:04
policy in a rapidly changing world.
16:06
It's constantly a challenge.
16:08
It's part of what democracy is.
16:11
But the alternative?
16:12
So I would love it, if you don't mind just reflecting, on the
16:15
general characteristics, when you lose a democracy, what does
16:20
that look like in the world?
16:21
What happens in your society?
16:23
What are the kinds of things that go on typically when you,
16:26
when you don't have a democracy?
16:28
Just think it's worthwhile just reflecting on what that's like.
16:32
Would you mind just sharing the common characteristics?
16:35
Yeah, of course.
16:36
And I think this is such an important question because, like
16:39
you said, democracy is not easy.
16:41
And I think we're in a time now in the US, in Europe, where you're seeing
16:47
a lot of pushback to democracy and where, democracy, some leaders, is not
16:53
delivering for people, or at least the version of democracy people are getting.
16:58
But that doesn't mean that democracy as a whole is not delivering.
17:02
I think, it may be surprising for listeners to hear that more than
17:05
two-fifths of the world's population now lives in an authoritarian country.
17:09
And for billions of people around the world, rights that many democratic
17:13
societies take for granted, speaking freely, organizing politically,
17:19
assessing independent news, are neither guaranteed nor secure.
17:24
And I think, especially for people sitting where I sit, it's just,
17:32
it's very important to kind of know exactly what the distinction is.
17:36
So when we talk about a country, for example, being not free, we're talking
17:41
a lot, about a lot more than elections.
17:43
We're talking about whether ordinary people can speak openly.
17:48
Self-censorship in a lot of these places becomes a way of life, I think, in a
17:52
way that is completely unimaginable, to people who live in democracies.
17:57
So one of the defining features of authoritarian systems that
18:01
people learn early on is what topics are unsafe to discuss.
18:05
So citizens may avoid criticizing political leaders or sharing their
18:10
opinions online, or even having conversations at work or in a taxi cab,
18:16
or sometimes even in their own homes.
18:19
And the goal of repression is not, to arrest every single person.
18:25
Sometimes it's to make people so afraid that they silence themselves.
18:28
I think- The most, effective form of censorship is when a government
18:33
makes the risk of speaking out so high that you decide to not
18:37
speak out in the first place.
18:38
I think, one example of this that comes to mind often is in Saudi Arabia, where, the
18:45
government for so many years has made the risk of speaking out so high by sentencing
18:51
people to absolutely absurd prison lengths, like 45 years in prison for
18:55
something as innocuous as a Twitter post.
18:59
I mean, just in the last year, we saw a man sentenced to death and executed
19:05
for a social media post, and the message that this sends to the rest
19:08
of society is it simply is not worth it to speak out, and there is such an
19:13
ingrained sense of fear among society.
19:16
And I think it's really important, for people in democracies to
19:21
understand that that is kind of what the level of self-censorship is in
19:24
a lot of places around the world.
19:28
Another thing, to go in a different direction is that you can't
19:32
reliably hold leaders accountable.
19:35
In democratic societies, citizens can vote leaders out of office, investigate
19:41
wrongdoings through independent media, and then challenge abuses in the court system.
19:47
And in autocracies, these mechanisms are either very weak or nonexistent at all.
19:54
And I think maybe a misconception is that in autocracies, elections
19:59
just simply don't occur.
20:00
In a lot of places they do, but they're very often manipulated.
20:05
Opposition candidates are very often excluded.
20:09
State institutions very rarely serve the people.
20:13
They often just serve the people in power.
20:17
Elections are typically just elections in name.
20:20
They don't actually give people a meaningful choice.
20:23
You can think about Russia.
20:24
Russia holds elections frequently, but Vladimir Putin is the only one who wins.
20:31
And often if you d- choose to challenge him, you're putting your own life at risk.
20:37
People don't actually have a meaningful choice.
20:39
This is why you see, in places like Egypt or Rwanda where elections are
20:44
held, the incumbent often wins with 99% of the vote share, which is, if
20:51
you think about it, kind of absurd that someone would win with that much, but
20:54
it's because they're either not being challenged or they're being challenged
20:57
by kind of a sham opposition figure.
21:02
These simply are not, credible, competitive elections.
21:07
And I guess just a couple more examples of, what life would be like.
21:13
information becomes a lot harder to trust.
21:16
I think, one of, and this goes back to our earlier conversation about some
21:20
of the trends that we've been seeing, media freedom is just absolutely
21:26
coming under attack around the world.
21:27
It's one of the indicators that we track in Freedom in the World that's
21:30
seen the largest decline over the last 20 years around the world.
21:35
Independent journalists, are being harassed, imprisoned, forced into exile.
21:40
These attacks are coming
21:44
in all different regime types, but specifically in the more
21:47
not-free repressive environments, you're seeing this very high
21:50
level of risk against journalists.
21:53
You also see state-controlled media dominate the information environment,
21:56
so it's very hard to trust the information that you're getting.
22:00
Propaganda is rampant, as well as censorship, so governments are
22:05
gonna block websites and censor social media, and then flood the
22:10
information space with disinformation.
22:12
And of course, this is just being facilitated with the rise of AI, which
22:18
will continue just to make this problem worse, and make it easier for governments
22:22
to use the online space as a tool of repression And then I guess the last one
22:27
that maybe I'll talk about is just the way that civil society is constrained.
22:32
Oftentimes organizations that work for human rights or women's rights
22:36
or environmental groups or even organized labor, like unions, are
22:41
either outright banned or heavily surveilled or curtailed, so it's very
22:45
hard to organize around these rights.
22:48
There could also be very high registration requirements.
22:52
People who work in these places or activists face really high
22:56
risks for doing this work.
23:00
So these are just some, just some of the examples.
23:02
I'll stop there, but hopefully that kind of provides people with an idea.
23:06
It's such a long, long list and there's a lot more, isn't there?
23:10
Like, one…
23:10
Just one I'll add which comes to mind.
23:14
I live in the United Kingdom, and the rule of law works in the United Kingdom.
23:18
And, in a lot of these countries that you describe, there is no equivalence.
23:24
And if somebody, accuses you and, perhaps you're trying to run in opposition to
23:30
the government or trying to raise a critical voice, and they'll use the
23:35
law as a weapon against you, and you don't have a foot to stand on and, the
23:40
judges may be co-opted and it's a, a…
23:43
Well, I think the expression is 'kangaroo court'.
23:47
But it's not a legal system, that you can trust and you can rely on.
23:51
And that's just such a huge insecurity to have in your life for yourself and
23:56
your family and your community to have a legal system that is non-existent or
24:00
is… There's no such thing as everybody being treated equally before the law.
24:06
Yeah.
24:07
That's exactly right.
24:08
It's such a long list.
24:09
Cathryn,
24:11
before we go, we like to include at the end of every interview a question for
24:15
our guests around individual agency.
24:18
For people listening wherever they are in the world who might like to get more
24:22
engaged in their democracy or, they're trying to build some kind of democracy in
24:28
a place where it barely exists or, they're worried about their democracy, they can
24:32
see the dangers and they are worried about it and would like to do something
24:37
about it themselves, or together with others in a group in their community.
24:41
I wondered if you had any ideas to share or suggestions, things you've
24:45
seen in your work, that people can safely do… beyond casting a vote
24:53
Yeah.
24:54
I mean, I think the easy one that I always say is to vote, but I think lessons
25:00
from countries that have successfully defended or expanded freedom and democracy
25:05
is that democracy is strongest when citizens participate between elections,
25:10
not just on Election Day, and you mentioned what people can do as a group.
25:16
One kind of simple and social way to do this is to join
25:19
something, whether it's like
25:23
a neighborhood association, and it doesn't need to be political.
25:27
It can be a parent-teacher organization, volunteer club, a faith community, a
25:31
labor union, or an advocacy organization.
25:34
Volunteer for something.
25:37
Anything that builds networks.
25:40
These sort of networks are what makes democratic societies resilient.
25:45
I think often we see authoritarian governments targeting these kinds of
25:49
independent organizations precisely because they create the space for citizens
25:54
to organize outside of state control.
25:57
Being able to create these spaces and continue to build these
26:00
foundational groups is so important.
26:03
Democracy, we were talking about this with, I think, the Hungary example,
26:07
it doesn't begin in parliament or in the legislative branch.
26:14
It begins in communities where people live and work together and solve problems.
26:17
That's where people are able to hold leaders accountable.
26:19
It's from the ground up.
26:20
So I think that's one important way.
26:23
Another, and I was mentioning, one of the biggest threats currently to
26:28
freedom is the attack on, media freedom.
26:32
Supporting independent journalism is so incredibly important.
26:36
It is the first line of defense against corruption, abuse
26:39
of power, disinformation.
26:41
Journalists are the ones who are keeping people informed
26:45
and holding leaders to account.
26:47
If you are able to, supporting your local news organizations, subscribing
26:52
to investigative outlets, and sharing credible reporting, this is also just
26:56
such an important way to continue to push back against the increasing
27:00
spread of dis- and misinformation.
27:03
It's really hard to hold power accountable if you don't know what the power is doing.
27:09
And then I guess the last one is engaging locally.
27:13
There's so much attention around national politics, but many democratic
27:18
institutions operate on the local level, school boards, city council
27:22
meetings, being able to engage at that level I think sometimes gets forgotten.
27:29
But I think local communities are where the health of democracy
27:35
often starts, around the world.
27:37
And so again, going back to what I was saying at the beginning,
27:40
that is where a lot of this starts, and it's a small way, and a less
27:44
intimidating way to get started.
27:47
And one of the weapons autocrats use is 'othering', othering people.
27:51
If you're engaged in your community and it's a diverse community and, you're
27:56
less inside perhaps a bubble of any kind, you're interacting with diverse
28:02
groups, it's really hard to be able to hook people into an 'othering' campaign
28:09
if communities are vibrant and diverse and working together and, "And what are
28:14
you talking about? They're my friends!"
28:19
There was something you said when we were preparing on chatting
28:22
before this interview about Bhutan.
28:24
And before we go, I just wanted to work out, flag Bhutan, because I know
28:28
that you said you, there was something you wanted to say about it, and I
28:31
just wanted to, to wave the Bhutan flag before we finish the interview.
28:35
What was it you wanted to share?
28:37
Yes.
28:38
Yeah.
28:38
This is, one of my favorite examples of kind of countries that have made
28:45
pretty remarkable steps to go from more autocratic forms of government
28:53
to democratic forms of government.
28:55
So Bhutan is one of, I think the only countries in our index who has
28:59
moved from the not-free status to the free status in the last 50 years.
29:04
So again, it speaks to that point I was making that building up democracy
29:10
after years of autocracy takes a long time, but it can be done.
29:14
And, in… If listeners don't know, Bhutan is a very small country,
29:20
nestled north of India in Asia.
29:23
But in 2024, it joined the ranks of consolidated democracies after two decades
29:28
of consolidating its democracy slowly over time through credible elections and
29:32
transfers of power to the opposition.
29:35
And it wasn't just through elections.
29:37
I mean, elections is often where kind of this momentum towards democracy starts,
29:42
but it was also because consecutive governments continued to prioritize civil
29:46
liberties, improving physical security, improving media freedom, improving the
29:53
ability for people to have freedom of expression and freedom of assembly.
29:57
And while it did take decades, we are now seeing that freedom
30:03
is flourishing in Bhutan.
30:05
And so I always like to highlight that example because it's not a country that
30:08
a lot of people think of often or even know about, but it is one of the success
30:13
stories for democracy around the world.
30:17
It sounds like a great story.
30:18
I am fascinated by that, and I would like to know all about how that happened.
30:22
So I think we're going to have to do an episode on Bhutan.
30:25
Thank you so much for joining us today.
30:27
That was a fascinating insight into democracy and autocracy,
30:30
and really appreciate your time.
30:32
Thank you, Cathryn.
30:33
Yes.
30:33
Thank you so much for having me on.
30:35
Bye for now.
30:42
If you enjoyed this episode, please post a review or rating.
30:46
We're new, and a one-line review has a huge impact in helping others to find us.
30:51
Thank you for your support!